Pakistan

How war on Iran turned Pakistan’s LNG surplus into a looming shortage | US-Israel war on Iran News

Islamabad, Pakistan – At the start of this year, Pakistan had more imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it could use. Demand had been falling for three straight years, from a peak of 8.2 million tonnes in 2021 to 6.1 million tonnes by late 2025, as cheap solar panels flooded the market and factories cut back.

The government quietly sold excess gas shipments to other countries and shut down domestic gas wells to prevent pipelines from bursting under the pressure of oversupply. Gas that could not be diverted would be pushed into household networks at a financial loss, adding billions to an already crippling debt pile in the energy sector.

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Then the war came. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched hundreds of strikes against Iran in an operation named Epic Fury. The strikes targeted Iranian missiles, air defences, military infrastructure and leadership. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening assault.

Iran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones across the region, and as a result, traffic passing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, almost came to a halt.

The energy consequences were immediate. As a part of its retaliation against US-Israeli attacks, on March 2, Iranian drones hit Qatar’s gas facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world’s largest LNG export complex.

Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter after the United States, halted all production and declared force majeure, a legal term meaning it was released from delivery obligations due to circumstances beyond its control.

The conflict escalated further on March 18, when Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field, the largest in the world, off Iran’s southern coast.

Gasfield

South Pars and Qatar’s North Field sit above the same underground reservoir, meaning the attack threatened both countries’ gas production simultaneously. Iran struck Ras Laffan again in retaliation.

QatarEnergy said that the hit had forced it to cut LNG production by 17 percent, with repairs expected to take up to five years.

Brent crude, the industry benchmark, was priced at more than $109 a barrel on Thursday,

Oil prices on Thursday climbed to $109 a barrel, while European gas prices jumped 6 percent in a single trading session.

For Pakistan, which secures nearly all its imported gas from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and holds no emergency reserves, the shift from surplus to shortage happened almost overnight.

A system built on imports

Pakistan meets its daily gas needs from three main sources. The bulk, about 2,700 million cubic feet per day, comes from domestic gas fields that have been in slow decline for years.

The rest comes from imported LNG, supplied by Qatar under long-term contracts, adding roughly 600 million cubic feet per day when shipments flow normally.

The third source is bottled LPG, used mainly by households in rural areas not connected to the pipeline network. Pakistan gets more than 60 percent of its LPG from Iran, a supply also disrupted by the conflict.

Pakistan began importing LNG in 2015 when domestic production could no longer meet demand. Today, imported LNG powers roughly a quarter of the country’s electricity, with the power sector its largest consumer.

Qatar and the UAE together account for 99 percent of Pakistan’s LNG imports, according to energy analytics firm Kpler.

Of that, Pakistan’s LNG supply is dominated by two long-term government-to-government agreements with Qatar, one spanning 15 years and the other 10. Together, they cover nine shipments a month.

QatarEnergy's liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities, amid the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar March 2, 2026. REUTERS/Stringer TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
QatarEnergy’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) production facilities, amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, in Ras Laffan Industrial City, Qatar March 2, 2026. [Stringer/Rueters]

From glut to scarcity

Monthly cargo data from Pakistan’s energy regulator, OGRA, reflects the impact of the war. The country received between eight and 12 LNG shipments a month through 2025 and into early 2026, with 12 arriving in January alone. In March, the month the war began, only two shipments arrived.

Prices have been affected too. According to data compiled by researcher Manzoor Ahmed of the Policy Research Institute for Equitable Development (PRIED), on February 13, state-owned entities Pakistan State Oil and Pakistan LNG Limited procured eight combined cargoes at an average cost of $10.47 per MMBtu, totalling $257.1m.

MMBtu is the standard international unit used to measure and price natural gas and LNG.

By March 12, the two cargoes that did arrive cost $12.49 per MMBtu, a 19 percent increase in a month, reflecting tightening global conditions even before the war’s full impact.

Pakistan had already been consuming less gas. Its share of Asian LNG markets fell from roughly 30 percent in 2020 to about 18 percent in 2025, driven largely by the rapid expansion of solar power. Millions of Pakistanis, frustrated by high electricity costs and frequent blackouts, have installed rooftop panels in recent years.

By 2025, the country had 34 gigawatts of solar capacity, with an estimated 25 gigawatts feeding into the national grid. Overall electricity demand from the grid fell nearly 11 percent between 2022 and 2025.

Gas-fired power plants built to run on imported LNG were left underutilised, especially during daylight hours.

“Of course, solarisation helps manage daytime demand, reducing the need for running thermal power plants,” said Haneea Isaad, an energy analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), who has tracked Pakistan’s gas sector for years.

But the contracts with overseas gas suppliers still needed to be adhered to — so Pakistan kept buying and paying, she told Al Jazeera.

Ahmed of PRIED pointed to two compounding challenges. First, the nature of Pakistan’s gas supply contracts were such that the government had to “buy LNG even when demand collapsed,” he told Al Jazeera.

Second, “rapid solar growth and suppressed grid demand were underestimated, and their effect on overall planning was not accounted for,” the Islamabad-based analyst added.

LNG consumption dropped by 1.21 million tonnes in 2025 alone. With no large storage capacity, surplus gas was pushed into domestic pipelines at a loss.

The resulting circular debt in the gas sector now stands at 3.3 trillion rupees, approximately $11bn. By January, Islamabad was negotiating to offload 177 unwanted gas shipments projected through 2031, a liability of $5.6bn.

Isaad of IEEFA said the surplus was predictable.

“Pakistan’s energy planning has mostly been bound by long-term contracts with very little flexibility,” she said. Once considered necessary for energy security, these rigid contracts, she added, have become a financial albatross in a market increasingly prioritising flexibility and low-cost generation.

She described the government’s pre-war response, diverting excess cargoes, as “reactive crisis management” that prioritised short-term fixes over better forecasting and procurement flexibility.

Supply shock

Qatar’s LNG shipments to Pakistan have stopped almost completely since March 2. Of the eight shipments scheduled that month, only two arrived. The six expected in April are unlikely to reach the country.

At a public hearing of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority, Central Power Purchasing Agency chief executive Rehan Akhtar said LNG supplies were under force majeure, though coal imports from South Africa and Indonesia remained unaffected.

Officials have warned of near-zero LNG availability in the coming months, even if the war ends quickly. LNG accounts for more than 21 percent of Pakistan’s power generation.

“With Pakistan’s LNG supply completely halted after Qatar’s declaration of force majeure, LNG plants are effectively out of the running order,” Isaad said.

The government has responded by restoring domestic gas production that had been deliberately curtailed during the surplus period.

Isaad said Pakistan had been holding back roughly 350 to 400 million cubic feet per day of domestic gas to accommodate LNG imports.

“There will also be the option to rely on other power generation sources such as imported coal and hydropower,” she added. But, she warned, “even with hydropower, imported coal and restored domestic gas production covering some of the gaps left by LNG, there might still be an energy shortage.”

For now, mild weather and increased solar output have provided temporary relief.

“So far, Pakistan has somehow miraculously survived any prolonged energy shortages in the power sector through a combination of mild weather and a pre-existing reduced reliance on imported LNG,” Isaad said. “But peak summer months may be a different story.”

Men load solar panels on a rickshaw (tuk tuk) at a market, in Karachi, Pakistan March 26, 2025. REUTERS/Akhtar Soomro
Men load solar panels on a rickshaw (tuk tuk) at a market, in Karachi, Pakistan March 26, 2025. [File photo: Akhtar Soomro/Reuters]

Summer pressure

With an energy crisis looming, Pakistan is bracing for a few hours of daily planned power cuts this summer, alongside other energy conservation measures and higher electricity costs.

According to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority’s State of Industry Report 2025, peak electricity demand last summer exceeded 33,000 megawatts.

Winter demand currently stands at about 15,000 megawatts, partly because solar panels now generate between 9,000 and 10,000 megawatts daily, reducing reliance on the grid.

Furnace oil, the main backup fuel, now costs 35 rupees per unit, about $0.12, and its price has more than doubled since the Strait of Hormuz disruption.

Analysts say the burden will fall unevenly. Consumers reliant on grid electricity will face both higher bills and outages, while industries dependent on gas will see production disruptions. Those with rooftop solar and battery storage will be best insulated.

Isaad is blunt about the options before Pakistan. “Returning to the spot market might not be feasible, given the dire financial consequences,” she said. “Even if it does, competition with wealthier nations may once again price Pakistan out. Furnace oil could be another option, but that will be prohibitively expensive to run.

“The only option the government may be left with is load-shedding [planned power blackouts], probably around two to three hours daily.”

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Pakistan to continue with Iran-US mediation despite ‘obstacles’ | US-Israel war on Iran News

Islamabad, Pakistan – Pakistan intends to continue to nudge the United States and Iran towards negotiations aimed at ending their war, but the Ministry of Foreign Affairs acknowledges “obstacles” in its efforts.

Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi did not specify the roadblocks on the path to peace that he was referring to. But his comments, made during a weekly media briefing in Islamabad, came hours after US President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages” if it did not accept Washington’s terms for a peace deal.

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Pakistan has been leading a multination effort to facilitate negotiations between the US and Iran.

“Despite challenges and obstacles, Pakistan will continue its efforts to promote facilitation and dialogue,” Andrabi said. He added that Islamabad was working to create conditions for “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He said the US and Iran had confidence in Pakistan’s role as a neutral intermediary.

In a sign of that confidence, Iran has allowed 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz. Andrabi called it “a harbinger of peace” and a positive step for regional stability.

He did not confirm whether any Pakistani ship had so far sailed through the strait.

The Hormuz route has been largely blocked since Iran began restricting oil and gas shipments following the outbreak of the US-Israel-Iran conflict on February 28. The disruption has driven up energy prices and triggered widespread economic strain.

Andrabi also pointed to sustained high-level contact between Islamabad and Tehran. He cited a March 28 call in which Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian spoke with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, stressing the need to “build trust in order to facilitate talks and mediation” and praising Pakistan for its “supportive role for peace”.

Regional diplomacy

The briefing came just a day after Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar returned from Beijing, where he met China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

This handout photograph taken on March 29, 2026 and released by Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs shows Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar (2R) poses for a photograph with his counterparts Turkey's Hakan Fidan (R), Saudi Arabia's Faisal bin Farhan (2L) and Egypt's Badr Abdelatty before their meeting at the Foreign Ministry office in Islamabad.
The foreign ministers of Pakistan, Egypt, Turkiye and Saudi Arabia in Islamabad on March 30, 2026 [Handout/Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs via AFP]

The visit produced a joint five-point initiative calling for an immediate ceasefire, urgent diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation, and the restoration of normal maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Andrabi said the Chinese-Pakistani plan had since been shared with Iran, the US and other stakeholders, receiving appreciation “across the region and beyond”.

He added that the proposals were consistent with the outcome of the four-nation ministerial meeting held in Islamabad the previous weekend — the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt joined Dar for those talks.

Dar travelled to Beijing despite medical advice to rest after sustaining a hairline fracture during the Islamabad talks, a move Andrabi said reflected the importance Pakistan places on its ties with China. “The Chinese side expressed deep appreciation, conveying that China and Pakistan are strategic cooperative partners,” he said.

The Islamabad meeting between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt was the second such gathering in a coordinated regional push to de-escalate tensions. The first was held in Riyadh on March 19.

Following those talks, Dar said Pakistan was prepared to host direct US-Iran negotiations “in the coming days”.

“Pakistan will be honoured to host and facilitate meaningful talks between the two sides for a comprehensive and lasting settlement,” he said on March 30.

At Thursday’s briefing, Andrabi reiterated that offer, confirming Pakistan had formally “offered to host and facilitate negotiations as part of its broader diplomatic outreach”.

He said the next phase of efforts would focus on securing “meaningful negotiations among relevant stakeholders”.

He appeared to acknowledge that Iran — which has so far denied any direct negotiations with the US and has insisted that the mediation is limited to messages being passed between Tehran and Washington by Islamabad — was not fully on board with the efforts to push the warring nations towards talks.

“Iran, as a sovereign country, determines its own policies,” Andrabi said.

Afghanistan breakthrough?

Separately, the Pakistani Foreign Ministry confirmed sending a delegation of senior officials to the northwestern Chinese city of Urumqi for talks with Afghanistan. It is the first substantive contact since Islamabad launched cross-border strikes in late February.

The Urumqi meeting on Wednesday focused on exchanging views on the current escalation, Andrabi said.

“Our participation is a reiteration of our core concerns,” he said. “The burden of real process, however, lies with Afghanistan, which must demonstrate visible and verifiable actions against terrorist groups using Afghan soil against Pakistan.”

Pakistan launched Operation Ghazab lil-Haq on the night of February 26, targeting what it described as sanctuaries of “terrorists” in Afghanistan, following what it called unprovoked fire from across the border by Afghan Taliban forces.

After a five-day pause from March 18 to 23 for Eid-ul-Fitr, partly in response to de-escalation requests from Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkiye, Andrabi confirmed the operation was continuing.

“There has been no change in Operation Ghazab lil-Haq, and operations are continuing,” he said.

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban administration in Kabul of enabling groups such as Pakistan Taliban, known by the acronym TTP, which have repeatedly launched deadly attacks inside Pakistan, to operate from Afghan soil. Kabul denies those allegations.

Islamabad says its concerns remain unaddressed, and violence has surged since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021.

China has also played a role in facilitating engagement between Pakistan and Afghanistan, including meetings in Beijing in May and in Kabul in August.

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‘It all depends on the crop’: Gulf crisis hits South Asia farmers | Agriculture News

Gurdaspur, Punjab, India – Ramesh Kumar, 42, is anxiously doing the calculations for his crops this year.

Standing at the edge of his wheat field in northwest Punjab’s Gurdaspur, he runs through the numbers in his head, totting up fertiliser costs, expected yield, and market prices.

Then he shifts to more personal concerns: School fees, household expenses, loan repayments and the money he has been saving for his daughter Varsha’s wedding.

“I don’t know if we can afford it this year,” he says. “Everything depends on the crop.”

The uncertainty has crept in quietly.

Fertiliser, once a fairly predictable staple in farming, has become more expensive and harder to secure in time. For Kumar, it is not so much a question of cost as it is the difference between stability and strain.

“If prices go up more, we will have to cut somewhere,” he says. “Maybe delay the wedding. If things get worse … even children’s education becomes difficult.”

School fees for his eldest son, Amit, 12, are due in the coming weeks, and Kumar has been setting aside money for his younger daughter Varsha’s future wedding.

It’s never easily affordable, even in good times. “We somehow manage,” Kumar says. “But if the harvest is weak, then we have to think about what to prioritise, what to delay.”

For farmers like him across South Asia, the United States-Israel war on Iran – unfolding thousands of kilometres away – is not just a matter of distant geopolitics.

It is shaping decisions inside their homes.

SA farmers
A worker pours fertiliser into a sack at a storage facility in Srinagar, Indian-administered Kashmir [Sajad Hameed/Al Jazeera]

A distant crisis with local consequences

At the centre of the unfolding crisis is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane more than 2,000km (1,240 miles) from India’s northern plains. It lies between Iran and Oman, linking the Gulf and its oil producers to the open ocean and, from there, to global markets.

About one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass through this body of water, which Iran closed down shortly after the first US-Israeli strikes on Tehran on February 28.

Vast volumes of LNG, essential for manufacturing nitrogen-based fertilisers, are transported from Gulf producers to Asia via this route. Any disruption can delay shipments, push up freight and insurance costs and place a stranglehold on supply.

Interruptions to the supply of fertiliser can ripple quickly, reducing crop yields, increasing costs and raising food prices.

The risks are already being felt thousands of kilometres away.

South Asia, home to nearly two billion people, relies heavily on fertiliser-intensive farming to produce staple crops such as wheat and rice. Over the past few decades, the increasing use of fertilisers – which can hugely boost crop yields – has played a key role in agricultural productivity across the region.

The agriculture sector now employs about 46 percent of the workforce in India, about 38 percent in Pakistan, nearly 40 percent in Bangladesh, and more than 60 percent in Nepal.

SA farmers
A farmer spreads fertiliser around apple trees in an orchard in Baramulla, Indian-administered Kashmir, March 2026 [Sajad Hameed/Al Jazeera]

The degree to which countries in the region depend on the Strait of Hormuz varies, but all rely heavily on the trade in fertilisers that this shipping route facilitates.

In India, the agriculture sector is worth $400bn, according to Indian government and World Bank data, and supports the livelihoods of more than half the population, either directly or indirectly. More than 100 million farming families are directly dependent on the sector.

The country imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements and other key raw materials, particularly phosphates and potash, as well as natural gas used to manufacture fertiliser, with about 30–35 percent of these supplies moving through or originating from routes that pass via the Strait of Hormuz.

In Pakistan, the agriculture sector contributes close to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), according to Pakistan government estimates, and employs millions. About 20-25 percent of Pakistan’s fertiliser imports, particularly DAP (diammonium phosphate), pass through the Strait of Hormuz at some point in transit. Additionally, the sector relies on domestic natural gas for the production of urea, a key nitrogen-based fertiliser and, with Gulf natural gas supplies held up in the Strait of Hormuz, the price of natural gas everywhere – even at home – is on the rise.

In Bangladesh, where millions of smallholder farmers rely heavily on imported fertilisers, the agricultural sector accounts for about 12-13 percent of GDP, according to government data. The country’s farming industry relies heavily on imported fertilisers to sustain crops, meaning farmers are highly exposed to international supply shocks and price swings.

Furthermore, roughly 25-30 percent of Bangladesh’s imported fertiliser is shipped via routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Nepal, where agriculture contributes about 24 percent of GDP, imports nearly all of its fertiliser needs, with about 25-30 percent of arriving via India, via the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

SA farmers
A worker handles granular fertiliser at a storage facility in Punjab, northern India, March 2026 [Sajad Hameed/Al Jazeera]

Livelihoods at stake

Overall, even minor disruption in the Gulf – let alone the complete closure of the critical Strait of Hormuz – can have dire consequences for hundreds of millions of people.

The Indian government has sought to reassure farmers that supplies remain secure – for now.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi told Parliament on March 23: “Adequate arrangements have been made for fertiliser supply for the summer sowing season…The government has diversified options for oil, gas and fertiliser imports… Domestic production of urea, DAP and NPK [nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilisers] has been expanded… Farmers now have access to Made in India Nano Urea and are encouraged to adopt natural farming…”

He added: “Under the PM Kusum scheme, more than 22 lakh (2.2 million) solar pumps have been provided, reducing dependence on diesel… I am confident that through joint efforts, India will manage these challenges effectively and continue to support our farmers.”

On the ground, however, confidence is low. Farmers say uncertainty is already influencing decisions.

In Pampore, in the south of Indian-administered Kashmir, 53-year-old mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool says price signals travel faster than supply disruptions.

“We hear about war, about shipping problems,” he tells Al Jazeera. “Even before shortages happen, fertiliser becomes expensive.”

Rasool says farmers often respond early by cutting down on the amount of fertiliser they are using, even before actual shortages emerge.

“If we use less, production will fall,” he says. “But sometimes we have no choice.”

In Pakistan’s South Punjab, wheat farmer Muneer Ahmad, 45, is preparing for the next sowing cycle.

“If fertiliser becomes expensive, it will affect everyone here,” he says.

Government officials have expressed confidence in Pakistan’s fertiliser supply amid the Middle East conflict, and claim the government is fully prepared to ensure adequate supplies during the region’s peak sowing period, which typically begins between April and June, depending on the crop.

According to a statement by Pakistan’s federal secretary for agriculture to Al Jazeera, Federal Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain told a meeting on March 25 that the government has started proactive monitoring, is expanding domestic urea and DAP production and taking steps to ensure fertilisers reach farmers at affordable prices.

However, urea production requires supplies of natural gas, meaning global energy price shocks can still translate into rising production costs.

SA farmers
A farm worker spreads fertiliser across a field as part of routine crop management during the growing season in north India [Sajad Hameed/Al Jazeera]

For farmers, even small increases matter

“We already have loans and expenses,” Ahmad says. “If costs go up, we feel it immediately.”

In Rangpur, northwestern Bangladesh, farmer Mohammad Ibrahim, 41, says fertiliser supplies are already becoming unpredictable.

“Sometimes it is available, sometimes not,” he says. “And when it comes, the price is higher.”

Meanwhile, in Nepal’s Gulmi district, farmer Meghnath Aryal, 38, worries that crops will be reduced if a major supply problem does appear.

“If fertiliser does not arrive on time, the crop suffers,” he says. “If it becomes expensive, we reduce use.”

Bangladesh’s Agriculture Secretary Rafiqul Mohammad told Al Jazeera the government is “closely monitoring the situation” and officials have tried to reassure farmers that fertiliser supplies are sufficient for the coming months.

The government has finalised plans to import about 500,000 tonnes of urea in the near term, while also exploring alternative suppliers such as China and Morocco to secure additional supplies in the longer term.

There is no immediate shortage at present, the Agriculture Ministry says.

Ram Krishna Shrestha, joint secretary at Nepal’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, told Al Jazeera that fertiliser distribution within the country remains largely stable for now, with supplies already secured for the upcoming rainy season, particularly for paddy crops such as rice.

However, he warned that there may be delays to contracted shipments as a result of the Middle East crisis.

“We have managed fertilisers for the upcoming season, but there could be challenges in timely supply because of the current situation,” he said, pointing to global price increases and logistical disruptions, including those caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shrestha added that as companies report shortages and rising prices in international markets, the government has asked suppliers to expedite deliveries.

“Authorities are also advising farmers to increase the use of traditional nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, compost, green manuring and azolla [a natural fertiliser] to offset any potential shortfall in chemical fertilisers,” he said.

No immediate new fertiliser subsidies have been announced, he said, though adjustments remain under discussion as the situation evolves.

SA farmers
Mustard farmer Ghulam Rasool scatters fertiliser by hand in a field in Pampore, Kashmir, India [Sajad Hameed/Al Jazeera]

Rising food prices on the horizon

The implications extend beyond individual farmers.

Across South Asia, fertiliser use has been central to maintaining crop yields – and keeping large populations fed. Any reduction in availability or increase in costs can quickly lower production. That, in turn, pushes up food prices, a sensitive issue in a region where households spend a large proportion of their income on food.

For governments, the challenge is complex.

In the past, subsidies have kept fertilisers affordable for farmers, but this becomes a fragile balancing act if global prices rise, placing additional pressure on public finances.

In India, Ramesh Kumar is already making adjustments – but he is walking a tightrope.

He has decided to use less fertiliser this season, even though he knows it could reduce yields.

“It is a risk,” he says. “But what choice do we have?”

Lower production will mean less income and harder decisions at home.

“School fees have to be paid,” he says. “Household expenses cannot stop.” He looks across his field.

“And the wedding… we will see.”

Ultimately, sacrifices will have to be made in his household.

Across borders, the same uncertainty is unfolding.

In Pakistan, Ahmad is worried about rising costs. In Bangladesh, Ibrahim is mostly concerned about the availability of fertiliser and, in Nepal, Aryal fears delays in supply.

For Ramesh Kumar, the stakes are clear.

“For others, this is about war,” he says. “For us, it is about whether we can take care of our family.”

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Ali Zafar wins defamation case against Meesha Shafi: Why it matters | Gender Equity News

A Lahore court has ruled in favour of Pakistani singer Ali Zafar in his defamation case against fellow singer Meesha Shafi. On Tuesday, the court ordered Shafi to pay Zafar 5 million rupees ($17,900) in damages.

Zafar sued Shafi for defamation in 2018 after she accused him of sexual harassment in Pakistan’s highest-profile #MeToo case.

What has the court ruled?

The court’s ruling, which has not been released to the public but has been seen by several Pakistani media outlets, states that a 2018 social media post by Shafi and an interview she gave to a lifestyle magazine contained “false, defamatory and injurious imputations” against the plaintiff, Zafar.

The court found that her allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature had not been proved to be true or shown to be made for the public good, and therefore constituted actionable defamation, according to Pakistan’s leading daily newspaper, Dawn.

The court added that Shafi was to be “permanently restrained from repeating, publishing, or causing to be published, directly or indirectly, the aforesaid defamatory allegations of sexual harassment of a physical nature against the plaintiff, in any form of media”.

This order will be appealed to the High Court, Nighat Dad, the lawyer who represented Shafi in court, told Al Jazeera.

As well as a member of Shafi’s legal team, Dad is the executive director of a nongovernmental, research-based advocacy organisation, the Digital Rights Foundation.

She said: “The appeal is likely to challenge the judgement on several grounds: that the trial court misread and selectively interpreted the evidence, failed to properly consider material evidence presented by Meesha, and overlooked the legal context, particularly that her sexual harassment complaint against Ali Zafar is still pending before the Supreme Court.”

What was the #MeToo case involving Shafi and Zafar?

In April 2018, Shafi, now 44, posted a statement through a series of posts on X, then called Twitter, accusing Zafar of sexually harassing her on multiple occasions.

Shafi wrote: “I have been subjected, on more than one occasion, to sexual harassment of a physical nature at the hands of a colleague from my industry: Ali Zafar.”

Shafi added that she was speaking up as an “empowered, accomplished woman who is known for speaking her mind!”

In her posts, Shafi referred to the global “#MeToo” movement by women and girls against sexual harassment and assault.

The hashtag gained worldwide prominence in 2017 when women in Hollywood and beyond began speaking out in the wake of allegations against the former American film producer and now convicted sex offender, Harvey Weinstein.

Within hours of Shafi’s post, Zafar, now 45, responded on X: “I categorically deny any and all claims of harassment lodged against me by Ms Shafi.”

He added that he intended to take the allegation to “the courts of law” and to address them legally rather than “contesting personal vendettas on social media and in turn disrespecting the movement”.

Shafi and Zafar were once known to be friends and are both prominent figures in Pakistan’s entertainment industry. Both have also made appearances in films outside Pakistan. Shafi even performed a small cameo role in 2003 in a music video for Zafar’s first album.

In April 2018, Shafi spoke about her allegations against Zafar during an interview with fashion and lifestyle magazine Instep Pakistan.

She told the magazine that she had not publicly spoken about the harassment at the time it happened because “I’m a public figure and so is he (Ali Zafar). My thought process was who I am and who he is and what that’s going to lead to. Being ready to talk was far off because it had just happened. I buried it.”

Have other women accused Zafar of inappropriate behaviour?

Yes. Several Pakistani celebrities and public figures posted in support of Shafi online after her 2018 X posts.

Additionally, other women came forward to accuse Zafar of sexual harassment.

They included makeup artist and painter Leena Ghani, who wrote in a statement on X in April 2018 that Zafar had on “several occasions” crossed the boundaries of what is considered appropriate behaviour between friends.

“Inappropriate contact, groping, sexual comments should not fall in the grey area between humour and indecency,” Ghani said.

Maham Javaid, a journalist who now works for The Washington Post, alleged in April 2018 that Zafar had tried to kiss her cousin and pull her inside a restroom in a now-deleted X post.

How has the dispute between Shafi and Zafar unfolded?

The pair have filed a slew of complaints against each other.

In June 2018, Zafar filed his one‑billion‑rupee defamation suit against Shafi. At the time, that was equivalent to more than $8m. It is now equivalent to $3.5m, due to the devaluation of the Pakistani rupee.

Shafi then filed a complaint about the alleged harassment before the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women at the Workplace, later in 2018.

Her complaint was rejected on the technical grounds that she and Zafar did not have an employer-employee relationship. An appeal is pending in the Supreme Court.

Zafar also filed a separate cybercrime complaint with the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) in November 2018, alleging that Shafi and others were running a coordinated smear campaign against him on social media.

Based on this report, the FIA filed a First Information Report (FIR) against Shafi and eight others in September 2020 under Pakistan’s Prevention of Electronic Crimes Act (PECA).

Those named in the complaint included Ghani, Javaid, comedian Ali Gul Pir and actor Iffat Omar, who had publicly supported Shafi and posted critical comments about Zafar online. The PECA offences they were charged under – criminal defamation provisions covering “offences against dignity” – carried a maximum penalty of three years in prison.

It is not known publicly whether the FIA cybercrime case has reached a verdict.

In September 2019, Shafi filed her own two-billion-rupee civil defamation suit against Zafar in a Lahore court, accusing him of making false allegations about her in the media. Two billion rupees was worth roughly $13m when Shafi filed the suit in 2019; due to the rupee’s steep depreciation, the same amount is now worth about $7m. That case is ongoing.

What has been the response to this week’s defamation ruling?

Actor and television host Iffat Omar, who was also named in the FIA cybercrime case and was also a witness for Shafi in Zafar’s defamation case against her, criticised the court ruling in an X post on Tuesday.

Omar wrote: “People were silenced, pressured, bought, and scared. The entire support system was broken. On top of that, we were accused of running a foreign agenda, of being paid huge amounts in dollars. I said it then, and I say it again – prove it in court. I am ready to open all my bank accounts, everything.”

Last week, Saqib Jilani, another of Shafi’s lawyers, asked the Lahore court to dismiss the defamation lawsuit, arguing that Zafar had not produced any concrete evidence to support his defamation claims.

Also last week, Shafi’s mother, the Pakistani actor Saba Hameed, who has been attending court proceedings in Pakistan while her daughter lives in Canada, told reporters: “We have been fighting this for eight years, and we are not accepting defeat in this matter.”

What happens next?

Shafi’s legal team intends to appeal the defamation ruling in favour of Zafar to the High Court. “This is far from the end of the road,” Dad told Al Jazeera.

She added that other legal actions relating to this are ongoing.

“Meesha Shafi’s original complaint of sexual harassment against Ali Zafar has been pending before the Supreme Court for several years now,” Dad explained, referring to the 2018 complaint dismissed on technical grounds by the Office of the Ombudsperson Punjab for Protection Against Harassment of Women, but which Shafi has appealed.

“Separately, Ali Zafar initiated a criminal case alleging cyber-defamation against Meesha and her witnesses, which also reached the Supreme Court and is currently stayed.”

Dad said that Shafi’s civil defamation suit against Zafar is also still pending.

Why is this significant?

“This ruling risks setting a deeply troubling precedent,” Dad said.

Currently, she said, survivors of sexual harassment face major legal, social and reputational barriers. Decisions like the Lahore court’s recent order are likely to discourage victims of sexual harassment “from speaking out at all”.

“If defamation law is interpreted in a way that punishes speech before underlying harassment claims are even adjudicated, it shifts the burden unfairly onto survivors and reinforces silence over accountability,” Dad added.

“And that is the real danger here.”

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Heavy rain, floods kill at least 45 people in Afghanistan, Pakistan | Weather News

At least 28 people are killed in Afghanistan and 17 in Pakistan after heavy rainfall causes severe flooding.

Heavy rain that has caused severe flooding and landslides has killed at least 45 people in Afghanistan and Pakistan over the past five days, authorities say.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) said on Monday that 28 people have been killed in the floods and 49 injured with more than 100 homes destroyed.

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Most of the deaths in Afghanistan were reported in central and eastern provinces, including Parwan, Maidan Wardak, Daikundi and Logar, according to ANDMA.

The authority added in a statement that weather conditions remained “unstable” in parts of the country and there is a continued risk of more rain and flooding in some areas.

“In total, 1,140 families have been affected,” ANDMA said.

Police spokesperson Sediqullah Seddiqi told the AFP news agency a 14-year-old boy died after being struck by lightning in the northwestern province of Badghis.

He added that in the same province, three people had drowned while trying to gather driftwood to be used for heating.

At the same time in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, which shares a border with Afghanistan, 17 people were killed and 56 wounded, the Provincial Disaster Management Authority said.

A man clears the rubble of his damaged house, collapsed after heavy rains in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, in Pakistan March 30, 2026. REUTERS/Ehsan Khattak
A man clears the rubble of his house, which collapsed after heavy rains in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, in Pakistan [Ehsan Khattak/Reuters]

Extreme weather

Heavy rainfall has continued to sweep across Afghanistan since Thursday, causing floods and landslides in multiple provinces.

The weather prompted the closure of several highways, according to officials in central and eastern Afghanistan. Further rains and storms are forecast for Tuesday.

Afghanistan’s National Disaster Management Authority has warned citizens to refrain from using “rivers and flooded streams, and follow the weather forecast seriously”.

In the central province of Daikundi, the local disaster management department said a five-year-old was killed when a roof collapsed. A woman was also killed in the same circumstances in the eastern province of Nangarhar, police spokesperson Sayed Tayeb Hamad said.

Afghanistan is vulnerable to extreme weather, particularly heavy rainfall and monsoon seasons, which trigger floods and landslides in remote areas with fragile infrastructure.

In January, flash floods and snowfall caused the deaths of at least 17 people and killed livestock.

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Fakhar Zaman charged with ball‑tampering by Pakistan board in PSL | Cricket News

Pakistan Super League has been jolted by the ball-tampering accusation against Zaman, which allegedly occurred on Sunday.

Lahore Qalandars batter ‌Fakhar Zaman has been charged with ball-tampering in ⁠Sunday’s Pakistan Super ⁠League (PSL) match against Karachi Kings, the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) said in a statement.

The incident occurred in the ⁠final over, with Karachi needing 14 runs to win. Fakhar, Lahore captain Shaheen Afridi, and fast bowler Haris Rauf were ⁠involved in a brief discussion, during which Fakhar and Rauf passed the ball between them.

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The umpire then approached Rauf and asked to see the ball. Following consultations with the square-leg umpire, the ‌officials awarded five penalty runs to Karachi and ordered the ball to be changed.

The penalty proved costly, as Karachi went on to chase down a target of 129 with three balls to spare, and Abbas Afridi hitting a four and a six to seal a four-wicket victory.

“Fakhar denied the charge ⁠levelled against him during a disciplinary hearing ⁠led by the match referee Roshan Mahanama,” the PCB said.

“Another hearing is set to take place within the next 48 hours after which the match ⁠referee will share his verdict.”

Afridi said they would look at video footage of the incident.

“I ⁠don’t know about this, and we’ll ⁠see if it’s there in the camera and discuss it,” he said at the post-match presentation ceremony.

Fakhar, 35, could face a ban of one or two matches ‌if found guilty of ball tampering for a first offence in the PSL.

Australian trio David Warner, Steve Smith and Cameron Bancroft ‌were ‌handed lengthy bans by Cricket Australia following a 2018 ball-tampering scandal in South Africa.

Fakhar Zaman in action
Zaman plays a shot for his Lahore Qalandars side during a Pakistan Super League T20 match against Hyderabad Kingsmen at Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore, Pakistan, on March 26, 2026 [Arif Ali/AFP]

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Pakistan hosts four-nation bid to encourage US, Iran towards diplomacy | US-Israel war on Iran News

Islamabad, Pakistan – The US-Israel war on Iran has not paused. The strikes have not stopped from either side. However, diplomacy is now moving at a pace not seen since the conflict that affected Iran’s neighbours and rattled the world economy for a month.

Two-day consultations of foreign ministers of Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan started in Islamabad on Sunday as the capital turned into the centre of a rapidly forming diplomatic track in what officials describe as the most coordinated regional effort yet to push the United States and Iran towards direct talks.

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Hours before the meeting, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a 90-minute phone call with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian – his second conversation with the Iranian leader in five days.

According to officials, the call focused on de-escalation and what Tehran calls the missing ingredient in all previous negotiations: trust.

Pezeshkian told Sharif that Iran had twice been attacked during earlier nuclear talks with the US and said the contradiction – talks on one hand, strikes on the other – had deepened Iranian scepticism about Washington’s intentions.

He stressed that confidence-building measures would be required before Tehran could consider direct dialogue.

The quad

The Islamabad meeting is not improvised. It is the evolution of a mechanism first discussed during a broader gathering of Muslim and Arab states in Riyadh earlier this month.

That mechanism has now hardened into a four-country diplomatic track, with Pakistan acting as the central interlocutor between Iran and the US.

Originally planned to take place in the Turkish capital, Ankara, the meeting was moved to Islamabad because of Pakistan’s deepening involvement in relaying messages between Washington and Tehran.

At the same time, China has conveyed support to Tehran for Pakistan’s mediation efforts and encouraged Iran to engage with the diplomatic process – a sign that global powers are beginning to line up behind the regional initiative.

Can they make Iran and the US talk to each other?

Diplomats say the four-nation meeting is not designed to produce a ceasefire itself. Its purpose is to align regional positions and prepare the ground for a possible direct US-Iran engagement.

Diplomacy over the war on Iran is no longer theoretical. A document exists. And now, the world is waiting.

Officials suggest that if current contacts hold, talks between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi could take place within days, potentially in Pakistan.

US Vice President JD Vance has also been named as someone who could talk to the Iranians. However, timelines remain conditional.

One diplomat told Al Jazeera that any such meeting would likely require Washington to announce at least a temporary pause in strikes to meet Tehran’s demand for confidence-building measures.

A senior Pakistani source confirmed to Al Jazeera that Washington and Iran’s demands have been presented by Islamabad, and that is where Pakistan’s role ends.

“We can take the horse to the water; whether the horse drinks or not is entirely up to them.”

What does Tehran want?

The four-country meeting is expected to review Iran’s response and coordinate messaging back to Washington. Iran has already transmitted its reply to the US proposal via Islamabad, according to officials familiar with the process.

Tehran’s demands include an end to hostilities, reparations for damages, guarantees against future attacks and recognition of its strategic leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.

The meeting agenda

During his call with Sharif, President Pezeshkian warned that Israel was attempting to expand the conflict to other countries in the region and expressed concern over the use of foreign territory for attacks on Iran.

Islamabad’s view is that any dialogue must take place in an atmosphere of mutual respect and an end to the killing of Iranian officials and civilians.

Pakistan has condemned Israeli attacks and stood in solidarity with the Gulf countries regarding Iranian attacks on their infrastructure.

These statements underline a growing divide between regional powers and Washington’s military approach – even as those same powers work to prevent the conflict from spiralling further.

Limits to the Islamabad meeting

The talks in Islamabad do not include US or Iranian officials. It is not a negotiation. It is preparation.

Its goals are to consolidate regional backing for de-escalation. That requires harmonising positions on ceasefire sequencing and reducing the risk that competing mediation efforts undercut each other.

If successful, it could provide the political cover both Washington and Tehran need to enter talks without appearing to concede.

Officials say the next 48 to 72 hours will determine whether this diplomatic push produces a meeting. Pakistan has now spoken to Iran, hosted regional powers and transmitted proposals in both directions.

What happens next will depend on decisions taken not in Islamabad, but in Washington and Tehran.

For now, though, one fact is clear: the centre of gravity in the diplomatic effort to end this war has shifted to Pakistan’s capital. If this collapses under the weight of mistrust and continued fighting, a regional war risks becoming something far larger.

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Pakistan hosts top Saudi, Turkish, Egyptian diplomats over war in Iran | News

Talks are under way in Islamabad, as the Pakistani government acts as mediator between the US and Iran.

Top diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Turkiye have gathered in Islamabad for two-day talks with their Pakistani counterpart on the US-Israel war on Iran, seeking to de-escalate the conflict.

The talks on Sunday and Monday are being led by Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who announced late on Saturday that Iran had allowed “20 more ships” under the Pakistani flag, or two ships daily, to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

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Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also said on Saturday that he had a “detailed telephone conversation with my brother President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran earlier today, lasting over one hour”, as part of preparations for the Islamabad talks.

Al Jazeera’s Kamal Kyder, reporting from Islamabad, said Pakistan has been acting as “a key interlocutor” between the United States and Iran, passing messages between the two sides as part of the mediation efforts.

“The gathering in Islamabad, what many people say, is the beginning of a critical process that includes the only viable option: diplomacy and dialogue,” he said.

“A difficult process, given the escalation, so all eyes will be on Islamabad – what consensus can be reached here, and whether that will be acceptable to the US, whether it is looking for a way out of this war or whether it is trying to buy time,” he added.

Pezeshkian hailed Islamabad’s efforts and “thanked Pakistan for its mediation efforts to stop the aggression against the Islamic republic”, according to his office.

The pair have spoken previously in recent weeks about the conflict and Pakistan’s commitment to bringing it to an end.

Islamabad has longstanding links with Tehran and close contacts in the Gulf, while Sharif and the army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, have struck up a personal rapport with US President Donald Trump.

Germany’s Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said earlier on Friday he expected a direct US-Iran meeting in Pakistan “very soon”, without revealing his source.

The risk of an expanded Iran war grew on Saturday as Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels launched their first attacks on Israel since the start of the conflict, after the first of the two contingents of the thousands of additional US forces dispatched to the Middle East arrived on Friday on an amphibious assault ship.

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Pakistan’s Naseem Shah under fire after criticism of politician’s PSL visit | Cricket News

Pakistan’s Naseem Shah under fire for slamming politician’s presence at start of closed-doors PSL game in Lahore.

The Pakistan Cricket Board has attacked fast bowler Naseem Shah for criticising a politician’s presence at the start of the opening game of the Pakistan Super League, which is being played behind closed doors.

Fans are barred from attending games at the country’s premier domestic tournament, which was originally scheduled for six venues but now reduced to just two — Lahore and Karachi.

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The Middle East conflict has resulted in exorbitant fuel hikes in the region, and Pakistan’s government is urging people to restrict travel and to work from home.

Chief Minister of Punjab Maryam Nawaz was invited to Lahore’s Gaddafi Stadium on Thursday, along with other dignitaries, and was introduced to officials of the eight franchises and players ahead of the opening game of the tournament between defending champion Lahore Qalandars and first-timers Hyderabad Kingsmen.

Shah commented on a tweet about the opening game by the PCB, with the bowler saying on X, “Why is she treated like the queen at Lord’s?” in an apparent reference to Nawaz’s presence at the stadium. He deleted the post soon afterwards and later said his account had originally been hacked.

A view of the Gaddafi Stadium, where opening cricket match of the Pakistan Super League between Lahore Qalandars and Hyderabad Kingsmen, is taking place without spectators
A view inside the Gaddafi Stadium, where the opening cricket match of the Pakistan Super League between Lahore Qalandars and Hyderabad Kingsmen took place without spectators [KM Chaudary/AP]

The PCB said in a statement that Shah had been issued a notice for violating the terms of his central contract as well as media policy and regulations.

“The show-cause notice has been served in accordance with the PCB’s disciplinary framework,” the PCB said. “Naseem Shah is required to provide a response within the stipulated time. Upon receipt and review of his response, the PCB will decide on any further action in line with the regulations.”

Last year, Pakistan all-rounder Aamer Jamal was slapped with a fine of $4,000 for displaying a slogan in favour of cricket great Imran Khan, Pakistan’s imprisoned former prime minister.

Shah is scheduled to play for new PSL franchise Rawalpindi Pindiz in Saturday’s game against Peshawar Zalmi, led by former Pakistan all-formats captain Babar Azam.

Shah, a right-arm fast bowler, has taken a total of 152 wickets while representing Pakistan in 20 Test matches, 34 one-day internationals and 37 T20 games.

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Deaths and debts: Missiles in Gulf shake millions of South Asian families | US-Israel war on Iran

A week into the United States-Israeli war on Iran, and Iran’s attacks on its Gulf neighbours, Jaya Khuntia spoke – as he often did – to his Doha-based son Kuna on the phone.

It was March 6, about 10pm, and Khuntia and the family were worried. “He told me, ‘I am safe here, don’t worry,’” the father recalled from the conversation with Kuna.

It was the last time they spoke.

The next day, the family in Naikanipalli village of India’s eastern Odisha state received a phone call from Kuna’s roommate telling them that the son had suffered a heart attack after hearing the sound of missiles and debris from interceptions falling near their residence. He collapsed and was later declared dead. Kuna’s body reached home days later.

Al Jazeera cannot independently confirm the cause of Kuna’s death, but the family of the 25-year-old, who worked as a pipe fitter in Qatar’s capital, is among millions across South Asia directly affected by the war in the Middle East.

Of the eight people killed in the United Arab Emirates in Iranian attacks, two were Emirati military personnel, a third a Palestinian civilian, and the remaining five were from South Asia: Three from Pakistan, and one each from Bangladesh and Nepal. All three people killed in Oman were from India. An Indian national and a Bangladeshi national are the only deaths in Saudi Arabia.

Migrant workers from South Asia total nearly 21 million people in the Gulf nations, a third of the total population of the region. At stake, for their families back home, is the safety of their loved ones and the future of their dreams.

The Khuntia family had taken on a 300,000-rupee ($3200) debt in 2025 for the marriages of their two daughters. Kuna’s income in Doha – where he had moved only in late 2025 – of 35,000 rupees ($372) was helping them collect what they needed to pay back the loan. Kuna had been sending back about 15,000 rupees ($164) every month.

“We thought our suffering was finally ending,” Jaya said, his voice trembling. “My only son would say, ‘Baba, don’t worry, I am here.’ He was our only hope… our everything.”

That hope is now extinguished. “That one call finished us,” Jaya cried. “He promised to return after clearing our debts … but he came back in a coffin. We have nothing left now. Losing our only son is the biggest debt we have to live with.”

Kuna Khuntia, a 25-year-old pipe fitter from India's Odisha, who died of a heart attack in Doha Qatar [Photo courtesy the Khuntia family]
Kuna Khuntia, a 25-year-old pipe fitter from India’s Odisha, who died of a heart attack in Doha, Qatar [Photo courtesy the Khuntia family]

‘I thought we would be next’

In all, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – the six Arab countries in the Gulf – host 35 million foreign nationals, who form a majority of their total population, 62 million.

They include 9 million people from India, 5 million each from Pakistan and Bangladesh, 1.2 million from Nepal, and 650,000 from Sri Lanka. Most of them are engaged in blue-collar work, building or supporting the industries and services that are at the heart of the Gulf’s success and prosperity.

But since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran, these migrant workers have often been among the most vulnerable. That vulnerability extends beyond deaths and injuries to the very nature of their work: Oil refineries, construction areas, airports and docks, where many work, have been targeted in Iranian attacks.

The suspension of work at many of these facilities, coupled with fears of a major economic downturn in the region, has also left many workers and their families worried about the future of their jobs.

Hamza*, a Pakistani migrant labourer working at an oil storage facility in the UAE, recalled a recent attack that he witnessed. “A drone struck a storage unit right in front of us. We were completely shaken. Most of us there are from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

“We couldn’t sleep for nights after that. The drone was so close that it could have killed us, too,” Hamza added. “For a moment, I thought we would be next.”

Despite these dangers, he said, leaving is not an option.

“We want to go back, but we can’t,” Hamza said. “Our families depend on us. It’s dangerous here, but if we stop working, they will have nothing to eat. We have no choice.”

Experts say Hamza’s sentiment is common across South Asian blue-collar workers in the Gulf, because of poverty and limited employment opportunities back home.

Imran Khan, a faculty member at the New Delhi Institute of Management working on migration economics, said migrant labourers from South Asia are often driven by desperation to take up jobs in the Middle East. He said Western countries have, in recent years, dramatically raised entry barriers for less-educated blue-collar foreign workers.

“These workers are the worst affected during crises – whether war or natural disasters,” he says. “I have been speaking to several migrant labourers, particularly Indians in the Middle East, and many are living in distress since the conflict began.”

But, like Hamza, most cannot afford to leave, Khan said.

“They cannot simply quit. Their income would stop immediately, and there are very limited opportunities back home,” he explained. “They have families to support, and without these jobs, survival becomes difficult.”

Indian labourers work at the construction site of a building in Riyadh November 16, 2014. India is pressing rich countries in the Gulf to raise the wages of millions of Indians working there, in a drive that could secure it billions of dollars in fresh income but risks pricing some of its citizens out of the market. Picture taken November 16. To match story INDIA-MIDEAST/WORKERS REUTERS/Faisal Al Nasser (SAUDI ARABIA - Tags: BUSINESS CONSTRUCTION EMPLOYMENT)
Indian labourers work at the construction site of a building in Riyadh, November 16, 2014 [Faisal Al Nasser/Reuters]

Families – and societies – that depend on remittances

Middle Eastern countries remain a key source of remittances for South Asian nations such as India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. The remittances these five countries receive from the region, $103bn, are comparable to Oman’s total gross domestic product (GDP).

Just the remittances that India receives from the Gulf, $50bn, are more than Bahrain’s entire GDP. Pakistan receives $38.3bn in remittances, Bangladesh $13.5bn, Sri Lanka $8bn, and Nepal $5bn.

With the recent escalation of conflict in the Middle East, experts warn these flows could be significantly affected, especially if Gulf economies contract and layoffs follow.

Faisal Abbas, an expert in international economics and director at the Centre of Excellence on Population and Wellbeing Studies, a Pakistan-based research institute, said remittances from the Middle East form a crucial economic backbone for South Asian nations, not just families.

“Remittances are a critical pillar for Pakistan and other South Asian economies, and a large share comes from Middle Eastern countries,” he explained. “If the situation worsens, it will not be a positive development for the region.”

Pakistan’s remittances from the Gulf constitute nearly 10 percent of its GDP, about $400bn.

Abbas added that the effect may extend beyond remittance flows. “Migration patterns could also be disrupted. Many workers may return home, while those planning to migrate might reconsider,” he said. “This could further increase unemployment in a region already facing job shortages.”

Unlike Hamza, a number of South Asian workers are planning to return home.

Noor*, a migrant worker from Bangladesh employed at an oil facility in Saudi Arabia, said he no longer feels safe and plans to return home once his contract ends.

“I will never come back here again,” he said. “It’s too dangerous. We can’t even sleep at night. The fear never leaves us.”

Noor said drone attacks had occurred close to his workplace. “We saw it happen in front of us,” he said. “That fear stays with you… It doesn’t go away.”

His family, too, is deeply affected. “My children cry every time they call me. They are scared for my life,” he added.

He said he knows that returning to Bangladesh would mean more economic hardship for his family. But Noor said he had made up his mind.

“I would rather go back and struggle to survive with my family than live here in constant fear,” he said. “At least there, I will be with them.”

*Some names have been changed at the request of workers who fear retribution from contractors for speaking to the media.

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From Pakistan to Egypt, Iran war drives up fuel prices in the Global South | Business and Economy News

As the United States-Israeli war with Iran sends tremors through the global economy, the poorest members of the Global South are the most exposed to the fallout.

In Asia, Africa and the Middle East, developing economies are bearing the brunt of surging energy costs prompted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on oil and gas facilities across the Gulf.

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From Pakistan to Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, through to Jordan, Egypt and Ethiopia, policymakers are facing the double whammy of being both heavily dependent on imported energy and having limited financial firepower to absorb the shock of spiking prices.

In Pakistan, which imports about 80 percent of its energy from the Gulf and has lurched between economic crises for years, authorities have scrambled to roll out measures to conserve fuel.

Facing the depletion of the country’s petrol and diesel reserves within weeks, officials have closed schools, introduced a four-day working week for government offices, ordered half of the country’s public sector employees to work from home, and slashed fuel allowances for official business.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said last week that he had decided against a proposed hike in petrol and diesel prices before the Eid Al-Fitr celebration, saying the government would “bear the burden” of rising costs.

Sharif’s announcement came after the government had earlier this month approved a 55 rupee ($0.20) rise in the price of a litre (0.26 gallons) of petrol or diesel.

While government subsidies have helped cushion the blow for the public, there are fears that petroleum prices will surge and bring economic activity to a halt if the war drags on, said S Akbar Zaidi, the executive director of the Institute of Business Administration in Karachi.

“The overall shock is quite severe, although it has not been fully passed on to consumers and to industry,” Zaidi said.

“I expect the next few weeks to make things far worse once the disruption and price factors pass through.”

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A man gets his motorcycle refuelled at a petrol station in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on March 9, 2026 [Munir Uz Zaman/AFP]

In Bangladesh, which imports about 95 percent of its oil and is expected to run through its fuel reserves within days, petrol pumps in some districts have run dry despite the introduction of fuel rationing.

Sri Lanka, which imports about 60 percent of its energy needs and is still reeling from an economic meltdown that began in 2019, has declared every Wednesday a public holiday and introduced a mandatory fuel pass for vehicle owners to conserve petrol and diesel, stockpiles of which are projected to run dry within weeks.

In Egypt, one of the biggest energy importers and among the most indebted economies in the Middle East, the government has ordered malls, shops and cafes to close by 9pm on weekdays and 10pm during weekends, and cut back on public lighting.

Facing growing pressure on public finances due to the government’s heavy subsidisation of fuel prices, Egyptian officials on March 10 announced price hikes of between 15 and 22 percent for petrol, diesel and cooking gas.

While acknowledging the burden on the public, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi said the move was necessary to avoid “harsher and more dangerous outcomes”.

“For a majority of developing economies, especially those already grappling with debt and high import dependence, they are facing a potent mix of inflation, currency pressures and fiscal strains,” said Yeah Kim Leng, a professor of economics at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia at Sunway University in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

“The hardest hit are net energy and food importers, especially those with fragile macroeconomic foundations and pre-existing vulnerabilities that typified countries with low per capita income and high poverty rates,” Yeah added.

Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Jordan, Senegal, Egypt, Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia are among the most at risk, according to a recent analysis by the Washington-based Centre for Global Development, which looked at factors including dependence on fuel imports, public debt levels and foreign exchange reserve/import ratios.

Currency depreciation

The weakening of many developing countries’ currencies against the US dollar – the result of investors buying the greenback amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty – has compounded the situation by further driving up costs.

“Countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have already seen their currencies at near record lows even before the start of the conflict, making imports, including oil, much more expensive,” said Azizul Amiludin, a non-resident senior fellow at the Malaysia Institute of Economic Research in Kuala Lumpur.

Much as the fallout of the war poses particular challenges for governments in developing countries, the effect on citizens is disproportionate, too.

In less advanced economies, citizens spend much more of their pay cheques on fuel and food, leaving them more exposed to rising living costs.

At the same time, governments in developing countries have less capacity to provide a safety net for those at risk of falling through the cracks.

“In vulnerable economies, governments often attempt to shield their populations from price hikes by subsidising fuel and food,” said Yeah, the Jeffrey Cheah Institute professor.

“However, with depleted fiscal buffers and shrinking revenues, this becomes unsustainable. The ensuing austerity, combined with hyperinflation, can trigger widespread social unrest and a full-blown fiscal crisis.”

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Motorcyclists crowd a filling station and wait their turn to get fuel, in Lahore, Pakistan, on March 6, 2026 [K M Chaudary/AP]

With the US and Israel barely a month into their war and no clear timetable for its end in sight, many analysts expect things to get worse before they get better.

Khalid Waleed, a research fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad, said rising transport costs would soon be felt at supermarket checkouts.

“Diesel is the backbone of Pakistan’s freight and agricultural economy,” Waleed said.

“Trucking costs have started climbing, and that will feed into everything from flour to fertiliser in the weeks ahead.”

Once Pakistan’s wheat harvest gets under way in April, food prices could spike well beyond their current levels, Waleed said.

“Combine harvesters, threshers, tractors for haulage from field to market, and the trucks that move grain from fields to flour mills and storage facilities all run on high-speed diesel,” he said.

“For a country where wheat flour is the single largest item in the food basket of the bottom two income quintiles, this is not a marginal concern,” Waleed added.

“If diesel prices stay elevated through April and May, Pakistan will harvest its wheat at the most expensive input cost in years, and that cost will transmit directly into food inflation at a time when households have almost no capacity left to absorb further price shocks.”

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Trump says Iran wants to ‘make a deal’ as it continues to strike Israel and gulf nations

President Trump said Tuesday that Iran wants to “make a deal” with the United States to end the war in the Middle East, saying that negotiations are ongoing with the conflict in its fourth week.

Iran has publicly denied that talks are happening. But Trump told reporters during an Oval Office event that negotiations are underway and being led by Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

“I’d like to think we are in a good bargaining position,” Trump said.

Trump said he remains skeptical of Tehran’s intentions, saying he doesn’t necessarily “trust them,” but indicated that he is encouraged to continue talks after receiving what he described as a “very big present worth a tremendous amount of money” from Iran.

“I am not going to tell you what the present is,” Trump told reporters. But he said it was a “significant prize” related to “oil and gas” that signaled to him that he was “dealing with the right people.”

Conflicting messages over the diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran come as Pakistan has offered to host peace talks in Islamabad aimed at ending the hostilities, which have killed more than 2,400 people, further destabilized the Middle East and disrupted global oil markets.

“Pakistan welcomes and fully supports ongoing efforts to pursue dialogue to end the WAR in Middle East, in the interest of peace and stability in region and beyond,” Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X.

Any potential talks between the United States and Iran would face significant challenges. Key U.S. demands — particularly related to Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs — remain difficult to resolve, even though Trump claims Iran has already agreed to concessions related to its ability to have nuclear weapons.

It is also unclear who within Iran’s leadership would be willing to negotiate, especially as Israel has vowed to keep targeting Iranian leaders after killing several already.

Trump has not publicly responded to Pakistan’s offer to act as an in-between for the United States and Iran. He also sidestepped a question about a New York Times report that said the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has been pushing him to continue the war against Iran.

The president instead expressed confidence in his senior advisors handling the negotiations with Iran. He did not specify who U.S. officials are engaging with, but insisted they are “talking to the right people.”

When asked by a reporter why he had agreed to a cease-fire with the Iranians, Trump said: “They are talking to us, and they’re making sense.”

As the talks continue, Trump said that the United States is “way ahead of schedule” in its war with Iran, a nation that he said was so battered that it had no choice but to come to the negotiating table. Iran, however, showed on Tuesday that it still has firepower as it fired a new wave of missiles at Israel, Iraq and other gulf nations.

Iran fired at least 10 waves of missiles at Israel. In Tel Aviv, a missile with a 220-pound warhead slammed into a street in the city center, blowing out windows of an apartment building and sending smoke billowing. Four people suffered minor wounds, rescue worker Yoel Moshe said.

In Kuwait, power lines were hit by air defense shrapnel, causing partial electricity outages for several hours. Bahrain said it was attacked with missiles and drones, and that an Emirati soldier serving with its forces had been killed. The United Arab Emirates said air defense systems responded to similar attacks, and Saudi Arabia said it destroyed Iranian drones targeting its oil-rich Eastern Province.

Israel pounded Beirut’s southern suburbs, saying that it was targeting infrastructure used by the Iran-linked Hezbollah militant group, and carried out an extensive series of strikes on Iranian “production sites,” without providing more information.

On Tuesday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel intended to seize Lebanon’s south Lebanon to a create a “security zone.”

Speaking at an assessment meeting with the Israeli military’s chief of staff, Katz said the military would control up to the Litani River, a waterway that runs through south Lebanon, meeting the Mediterranean some 20 miles north of the border with Israel.

“Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon who evacuated northward will not return south of the Litani River until security for the residents of the north [of Israel] is ensured,” he said.

His words were the clearest articulation yet of Israel’s plans in Lebanon, going far beyond the “limited and targeted ground operations” announced by the Israeli military earlier this month.

Lebanon, meanwhile, took steps to undercut Tehran’s influence in the country and its support for Hezbollah. In a statement released on X on Tuesday, Lebanese Foreign Minister Youssef Raggi said the government was expelling Iranian Ambassador Mohammad Reza Shibani and declared him persona non grata. He gave Shibani until Sunday to leave the country.

Hezbollah condemned the move and called it a “grave national and strategic mistake.” Political figures aligned with the group also issued public statements urging the Iranian ambassador to ignore the decision.

In Washington, Trump said he would like to find a resolution that would avoid further casualties and damage to critical infrastructure in the region.

“If we can end this without more lives being down, without knocking out $10-billion electric plants that are brand new and the apple of their eye, I’d like to be able to do that,” he said. “But they can’t have certain things.”

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, meanwhile, told reporters that he would rather “negotiate with bombs.”

“The president has made it clear that you will not have a nuclear weapon. The War Department agrees,” Hegseth said. “Our job is to ensure that, and so we’re keeping our hand on that throttle, as long and as hard as is necessary to ensure the interests of the United States of America are achieved on that battlefield.”

His comments came as thousands of U.S. Marines were on their way to the region, raising speculation that the U.S. may try to seize Kharg Island, which is vital to Iran’s oil network. The U.S. bombed the Persian Gulf island more than a week ago, hitting its defenses but saying it had left oil infrastructure intact.

The Pentagon declined to comment on the deployment.

Ceballos and Quinton reported from Washington. Times staff writer Nabih Bulos in Beirut contributed to this report.

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Pakistan proposes hosting U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad

March 24 (UPI) — Pakistani officials said Tuesday they’re prepared to host negotiations between the United States and Iran, with in-person meetings possibly set to take place in Islamabad.

Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told Al Jazeera that Pakistan would be willing to play a part in the talks “if the parties desire.”

The government “has consistently advocated for dialogue and diplomacy to promote peace and stability in the region,” Andrabi said.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif confirmed the offer, saying he’s ready to “facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks.”

Unnamed Pakistani sources told The Guardian that Vice President JD Vance would potentially serve as chief U.S. negotiator if such talks went forward. Iranian officials have said they will not speak with President Donald Trump‘s pre-war negotiators, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and adviser Jared Kushner.

Witkoff and Kushner met with Iranian officials in the month leading up to the war in an attempt to reach a deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program. The talks were unfruitful and Trump ordered the launch of attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 alongside Israel.

In nearly a month, the war has killed more than 2,000 people and displaced millions of others, NBC News reported.

Trump said Monday that he hopes there will be an agreement with Iran amid renewed talks, which Iranian state-run media have denied has taken place. The U.S. president said he’s holding off on strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days after “very good and productive conversations.”

President Donald Trump presents the Commander in Chief’s Trophy to the Navy Midshipmen football team during a ceremony in the East Room of the White House on Friday. The award is presented annually to the winner of the football competition between the Navy, Air Force and Army. Navy has won the trophy back to back years and 13 times over the last 23 years. Photo by Bonnie Cash/UPI | License Photo

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Monday 23 March Pakistan Day in Pakistan

On March 23rd 1940, the Lahore Resolution was passed which rejected the concept of a United India and proposed the creation of an independent state for Muslims, even though it did not actually mention Pakistan at all.

The resolution paved the way for the creation of Pakistan on August 14th 1947, when Pakistan became the world’s first Islamic republic. August 14th is celebrated as a holiday – Independence Day.

To mark the resolution, the Minar-e-Pakistan (pictured above) was constructed during the 1960s on the site in Iqbal Park where the All-India Muslim League passed the Lahore Resolution

What we know about deadly strike on Kabul medical centre | Taliban

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Afghan officials say a suspected Pakistani air strike hit a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul, killing hundreds of patients and staff and leaving the facility in ruins. Pakistan denies targeting civilians, as tensions escalate between Islamabad and Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government.

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Families search for loved ones after deadly Pakistan strikes on Kabul rehab | Conflict News

Afghan authorities say a Pakistani attack killed hundreds of civilians; Islamabad rejects claim as ‘false’.

Families have gathered outside a drug treatment centre in the Afghan capital, Kabul, looking for their loved ones after it was hit in a Pakistani air strike, which Taliban authorities said killed 408 people.

The attack on Kabul’s Omar Addiction Treatment Hospital took place at about 9pm local time (16:30 GMT) on Monday.

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Baryalai Amiri, a 38-year-old mechanic, was at the 2,000-bed facility on Tuesday to look for his brother, who was admitted about 25 days ago.

“We are not given the proper information,” Amiri told the AFP news agency, as rescuers picked through the rubble nearby. “So far, we don’t know where he is.”

Afghanistan and Pakistan have been in conflict for months, with Islamabad accusing its neighbour of harbouring armed groups that have mounted deadly cross-border attacks.

The latest round of violence that began last month⁠, two days before the world’s focus shifted sharply to the US-Israel war on Iran, is the worst ever between the neighbours.

The two nations share a 2,600km (1,600-mile) border. The conflict had ebbed amid attempts by friendly countries, including China, to mediate and end the fighting before flaring up again.

Pakistan denied Afghan claims that its latest attack targeted civilians, instead insisting that it carried out precision strikes on “military installations and terrorist support infrastructure”.

“Pakistan’s targeting is precise and carefully undertaken to ensure no collateral damage is inflicted,” the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting said. Islamabad dismissed the claim as “false and aimed at misleading public opinion”.

The health authorities said there were about 3,000 patients from across Afghanistan at the clinic at the time of the attack, which triggered panic in Kabul just after residents had broken their daily Ramadan fast.

The United Nations special rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Afghanistan, Richard Bennett, said he was “dismayed” by reports of the air raids and civilian casualties.

“I urge parties to de-escalate, exercise maximum restraint & respect international law, including the protection of civilians and civilian objects such as hospitals,” he posted on X.

‘It was like doomsday’

A spokesman for Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior Affairs said on Tuesday that the attack killed 408 people and injured 265.

Witnesses said they heard three explosions just as people in the hospital were completing evening prayers. Two of the bombs struck rooms and patient areas, they said.

“The whole place caught fire. It was like doomsday,” 50-year-old Ahmad told the Reuters news agency.

“My friends were burning in the fire, and we could not save them all,” he said, giving only his first name as he was under treatment at the facility.

Ambulance driver Haji Fahim told Reuters that he arrived at the site shortly after the air raids.

“When I arrived [last night], I saw that everything was burning, people were burning,” Fahim said on Tuesday. “Early in the morning, they called me again and told ⁠me to come back because there are still bodies under the rubble.”

The clinic was established in 2016 and has treated hundreds of people, also providing them with vocational training, such as tailoring and carpentry, to make them employable, according to local media reports.

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Iran’s neighbours brace for fallout as war threatens new refugee crisis | US-Israel war on Iran News

Islamabad, Pakistan — The war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran has already killed more than 1,400 people, set off retaliatory attacks by Tehran targeting Gulf nations and Israel, and pushed global oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Now, eighteen days into the conflict, aid agencies and countries neighbouring Iran are increasingly concerned about a potential refugee crisis.

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The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 3.2 million people have already been displaced in Iran since US-Israeli strikes began on February 28. For now, the number of people physically crossing Iran’s borders remains comparatively modest. But this is what could happen next, and has put Iran’s neighbours on high alert.

Iran borders seven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkiye and Turkmenistan. Iraq shares the longest frontier, stretching for almost 1,600km (994 miles).

Each of these states faces its own political pressures, economic limitations and security concerns.

But pressure on the ground in Iran is mounting. The country’s Red Crescent Society reports that more than 10,000 civilian sites have been damaged since the war began, including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities, while more than 1,400 people have been killed in the US-Israel attacks. Strikes have hit residential areas in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan.

Meanwhile, commercial flights out of Iran have been suspended as airspace is closed.

Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at the geopolitical advisory firm Nightingale International, noted that because strikes have so far been concentrated largely on Tehran and western and southwestern Iran, other parts of the country — especially provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are absorbing much of the internal displacement.

“If the strike pattern remains the same, internally displaced people inside Iran will increasingly concentrate in provinces located near those states, creating the preconditions for cross-border movement,” the Almaty-based analyst told Al Jazeera.

And things could get worse. If Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, were to lose its electricity grid or water supply in a US-Israel attack, for instance, residents could be forced to leave en masse.

“Infrastructure destruction does not produce the gradual, manageable flows that the Syrian war initially generated. It produces sudden, massive displacement, driven by the collapse of basic urban services,” Gusseinov said.

Turkiye fears repeat of Syrian migration crisis

Among Iran’s neighbours, only Turkiye, Iraq and Pakistan have extensive experience of hosting large refugee populations.

Imtiaz Baloch, an independent researcher focusing on conflicts in Pakistan and Central Asia, said that if the crisis in Iran deepens, many Iranians could seek refuge in neighbouring states, particularly Iraq and Turkiye.

Analysts say no country faces greater political exposure than Turkiye.

“Turkiye is currently hosting many refugees from Syria and other countries. A new influx of Iranian migrants would likely intensify the humanitarian burden and create new challenges for both host countries and international relief agencies in the coming days,” Baloch said.

Turkiye shares a 530km (329-mile) border with Iran and allows visa-free entry for Iranian citizens. It already hosts the world’s largest refugee population, including roughly 3.6 million Syrians, and anti-immigrant sentiment has hardened within domestic politics over the past decade.

Turkiye’s interior minister, Mustafa Çiftçi, said earlier in March that the government had prepared three contingency plans for the war in Iran.

The first involves intercepting migration flows within Iranian territory before they reach the border. The second proposes establishing buffer zones along the frontier. The third would allow refugees to enter Turkiye under controlled conditions as a last resort.

Turkish authorities say they have already strengthened the border with Iran, adding 380km (236 miles) of concrete wall, 203 optical towers and 43 observation posts – undertaken, according to a Turkish Ministry of National Defence statement issued in January, as the US was building up its armada in the Gulf late last year.

“Although there is currently no mass migration detection at our borders, additional measures have been taken on the border line, and these measures will be implemented if needed,” the Defence Ministry stated on January 15.

So far, this has not been necessary. According to Turkish government data on the movement of people from Iran, 5,010 entered Turkiye from between March 1 and 3, while 5,495 exited.

But Turkiye has felt the effects of the war’s spillover in other ways. On March 9, NATO confirmed it had intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace. The debris landed near Gaziantep, in the western-most part of the country, about 50km (31 miles) from the Syrian border. Iran denied that it was behind the attack on Turkiye.

Crisis on an unprecedented scale?

What makes the current situation in Iran particularly urgent is the scale of its population, say analysts.

Syria had approximately 21 million people at the start of its civil war. Iran has roughly 90 million. The Syrian conflict caused more than 13 million people to be displaced, including more than 6 million who fled the country.

A proportionate displacement from Iran would represent a humanitarian crisis with few modern parallels. To put it into perspective, if a country of 90 million experienced the exact same scale of crisis as Syria, nearly 56 million people would be forced to flee their homes, and nearly 26 million of them would become international refugees.

Gusseinov said such a scale of displacement and the capacity of international aid agencies is “fundamentally mismatched”.

Furthermore, Iran itself hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations: about 3.7 million displaced people, most of them from Afghanistan.

“Any mass displacement from Iran, therefore, creates a dual crisis: Iranian civilians fleeing outward, and Afghan and Iraqi refugees who were already in Iran being displaced a second time, or pushed back to countries that cannot absorb them,” he said.

Hamid Shirmohammadzadeh, 35, who arrived in Turkey from Iran, shows his passport while staying at a hotel in Van province, Turkey, March 5, 2026. REUTERS/Dilara Senkaya SEARCH "SENKAYA IRAN CRISIS TURKEY BORDER" FOR THIS STORY. SEARCH "WIDER IMAGE" FOR ALL STORIES.
Hamid Shirmohammadzadeh, 35, who arrived in Turkiye from Iran, shows his passport while staying at a hotel in Van province, Turkiye, March 5, 2026 [Dilara Senkaya/Reuters]

Iraq and the South Caucasus face difficult choices

Although most population movement is still taking place within Iran rather than across its borders, Iran’s neighbours do have cause for concern, analysts say.

“Iran’s neighbouring countries are already dealing with their own crises, which limits their ability to absorb a potential refugee influx. Countries such as Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are facing varying degrees of economic, political, or security challenges. These internal pressures make it difficult for them to accommodate a large influx of refugees,” Gusseinov told Al Jazeera.

Iraq, which shares Iran’s longest border, faces a particularly complex situation.

The country is not only a potential destination for Iranian refugees, but has also been caught in military exchanges between Washington and Tehran. US forces have targeted armed groups operating from Iraqi territory, while Iran and pro-Iran armed groups have struck – or attempted to strike – US military and diplomatic positions inside the country.

The UN’s International Organization for Migration says disruptions on the Iranian side of the border have led to the closure of several crossing points, although Iraqi crossings remain technically open. Meanwhile, the UNHCR says it is monitoring developments closely, and that the Iraqi government would lead any emergency refugee response.

The semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, which, unlike the rest of the country, still allows visa-free entry for Iranian passport holders, adds another layer of complexity.

The region hosts several Kurdish armed groups, some of which have reportedly been in discussions with Washington about receiving military support in return for joining the war against Iran. The development has prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to strike Kurdish positions inside Iraqi territory.

Baghdad has publicly stated that it will not allow its territory to be used to infiltrate Iran, but experts on the region say its ability to enforce the position is limited.

Further north, the South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have each expressed concern while attempting to carefully balance relations with both Washington and Tehran.

Azerbaijan has closed its land borders to routine traffic, requiring government approval for any crossing, while Armenia’s border with Iran, which is just 44km (27 miles) long, remains open.

“Armenia is a small economy already absorbing Russian and Ukrainian migrants,” Gusseinov said.

INTERACTIVE - DEATH TOLL - tracker - war - US Israel and Iran attacks - March 15, 2026-1773559836
(Al Jazeera)

Pakistan and Afghanistan confront overlapping crises

To Iran’s east lie Pakistan and Afghanistan, each grappling with existing refugee pressures.

According to the UNHCR, since October 2023, about 5.4 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, many not by choice.

Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, a huge wave of Afghans sought refuge across the country’s borders, fearful of economic collapse and security threats.

The UN and international migration agencies estimate that between 1 and 1.5 million Afghans fled to Iran in the immediate aftermath of the US withdrawal, pushing the total Afghan population in Iran to upwards of 5 or 6 million.

Concurrently, hundreds of thousands of newly displaced Afghans crossed into Pakistan, joining a long-established refugee community there and swelling the total number of Afghans in the country to more than 3 million.

In response to this influx and citing domestic economic and security pressures, both Pakistan and Iran initiated aggressive mass deportation campaigns, forcing millions back into Afghanistan. Between late 2023 and the end of 2025, between 2.8 million and 3.5 million Afghans are thought to have been sent back.

Pakistan’s stringent repatriation plans pushed out more than 1.3 million people, while Iran drastically accelerated its expulsions, deporting nearly 2 million individuals in 2025 alone.

According to the UNHCR, in 2026 so far, more than 232,500 Afghans have returned to their country, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran.

The primary concern now is that the war in Iran could accelerate these returns, pushing people into communities already struggling to cope and potentially triggering further onward migration. The UNHCR has also warned that largescale and hurried returns of refugees could trigger further instability in the region.

Further complicating the situation, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in fighting, as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is providing a safe haven to armed groups launching attacks at Pakistan. Kabul has consistently denied the presence of any such groups on its soil.

Another bout of hostilities in October 2025 led Pakistan to close its borders with Afghanistan. Since then, Afghanistan’s trade and economic ties with Iran have deepened.

“Destabilisation of the Iranian economy, therefore, hits Afghanistan through two channels simultaneously: reduced trade flows and refugee return surges,” Gusseinov said.

Meanwhile, Pakistan faces its own geographical and security challenges.

The country’s border with Iran runs through Balochistan, its largest but most volatile province, where separatist sentiment has simmered for decades. The province has seen an increasing number of attacks by armed groups seeking independence from Pakistan. In February this year, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the province, and claimed it had killed 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

While Balochistan’s provincial officials say they have sufficient resources to accommodate refugees if large numbers begin arriving across the southern border, researcher Baloch said the reality was more complicated. Any refugee crisis, he said, could make the situation in Balochistan difficult for Islamabad to manage.

“Balochistan’s porous border is next to Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, a region that has historically been home to various separatist groups. Any significant influx of refugees across this border could impose additional security and economic costs on Pakistan,” Baloch said.

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Pakistan strikes Afghan base after its president warns ‘red line’ crossed | Conflict News

Islamabad hits Kandahar facility after Taliban drones strike civilian areas and military sites as conflict intensifies.

Pakistan has carried out strikes on an Afghan military facility in Kandahar after Taliban drones targeted civilian areas and military installations across the country.

The strikes on Saturday came after Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari condemned the overnight drone attacks, warning Kabul it had “crossed a red line by attempting to target our civilians”.

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Pakistan’s military said the drones, described as locally produced and rudimentary, were intercepted before reaching their targets, though falling debris wounded two children in Quetta and civilians in Kohat and Rawalpindi.

A security source told the AFP news agency that airspace around the capital, Islamabad, had been temporarily closed when the drones were detected.

Islamabad said the Kandahar facility had been used both to launch the drone attacks and as a base for cross-border rebel activity.

The exchange marks the sharpest single escalation yet in a conflict that has been building since late February, when Pakistan launched military operations against what it said were Pakistan Taliban fighters sheltering on Afghan soil.

Islamabad also accuses Kabul of harbouring fighters from the ISIL (ISIS) group’s Khorasan province affiliate.

The Taliban government has denied both charges.

The drone attacks followed Pakistani strikes on Kabul and eastern border provinces in Afghanistan overnight on Thursday into Friday. The Pakistani attacks killed four people in the capital, women and children among them, and two more in the east.

In the Pul-e-Charkhi neighbourhood of Kabul, one resident described being buried under rubble after his home was hit, saying he lay there believing it was his “last breath” before neighbours pulled him free.

A local representative told AFP that those killed were “ordinary people, poor people” with no involvement in the conflict.

Pakistani aircraft also struck a fuel depot belonging to the private airline Kam Air near Kandahar airport, which an airport official said supplied aid organisations, including the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

The official added that there were “no military installations” at the site.

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Defence claimed that its forces had captured a Pakistani border post and killed 14 soldiers.

Islamabad dismissed the assertion as baseless, with the prime minister’s spokesman accusing the Taliban of “weaving fantasies” rather than dismantling rebel networks on Afghan territory.

The UN mission in Afghanistan says at least 75 civilians have been killed and 193 injured since hostilities intensified on February 26, a toll that includes 24 children.

According to the UN refugee agency, about 115,000 people have been forced from their homes.

The crisis is unfolding as the wider region remains engulfed by the US-Israeli war with Iran, which began just two days after the Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes escalated.

Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi has urged both sides to pursue dialogue, warning that further force would only deepen the crisis, though his appeal came as Pakistani jets were already in the air over Kandahar.

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Thousands march worldwide in solidarity with Palestine, Iran on al-Quds Day | US-Israel war on Iran News

Tens of thousands of people have gathered around the world for al-Quds Day, an annual event on the final Friday of Ramadan demonstrating solidarity with Palestine and opposition to Israeli occupation.

Rallies took place across numerous countries, including Iran, Malaysia, Indonesia, Kashmir and Yemen. In Tehran, thousands marched, chanting “death to Israel” and “death to America” as the United States-Israeli military campaign entered its 14th day of conflict.

The event has long been associated with Iran, and was established by the country’s first supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1979.

This year’s observance coincided with the US-Israel attack on Iran that has killed at least 1,444 people, including the Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei.

Crowds turned out in Tehran and other cities, despite ongoing US and Israeli strikes in the region during the commemoration, state media reported.

Demonstrators worldwide expressed solidarity with both Palestinians and Iranians. In Kashmir, protesters burned mock coffins bearing images of US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while shouting slogans against the United States and Israel.

For the first time in 40 years, the United Kingdom banned London’s al-Quds Day march, citing risks of public disorder related to the “volatile situation in the Middle East” and potential confrontations between opposing groups. This marks the first protest ban since 2012, when authorities prohibited marches by the far-right English Defence League.

According to Iran’s Health Ministry, another 18,551 people have been injured in US-Israeli attacks on Iran since February 28.

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