OPEC

OPEC+ to hike crude output: Will it make a difference to oil prices?

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OPEC+ members met virtually on Sunday and afterwards announced plans to hike crude quotas by 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) in May as the Strait of Hormuz, which is the world’s most important route for black gold, continues to face disruptions as a result of the US-Iran conflict.


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However, the modest rise agreed by the eight key producing countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — is not likely to bring down oil prices as it represents less than 2% of the supply disrupted by the Hormuz closure. Moreover, the increase is more symbolic than material as the oil can’t be exported until the Strait of Hormuz opens.

“In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 206 thousand barrels per day from the 1.65 million barrels per day additional voluntary adjustments announced in April 2023. This adjustment will be implemented in May 2026,” the group said in a statement.

The members’ statement also noted that the 1.65 million barrels per day may be returned in part or in full subject to evolving market conditions and in a gradual manner.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability, they reaffirmed the importance of adopting a cautious approach and retaining full flexibility to increase, pause or reverse the phase out of the voluntary production adjustments, including reversing the previously implemented voluntary adjustments of the 2.2 million barrels per day announced in November 2023,” the statement also said.

Efforts to stabilise soaring oil prices

The latest statement from OPEC+ comes as oil prices have surged since the Iran conflict began, with Brent and US crude nearing $120 a barrel, driving up fuel costs and putting pressure on consumers and businesses worldwide.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan said in a note on Thursday that oil prices could go as high as $150 a barrel if supply flows remain disrupted until mid-May.

US President Donald Trump has given Iran a deadline of Tuesday to open the Strait of Hormuz and has vowed to hit the country’s power plants and bridges otherwise.

European markets were closed on Monday for the Easter holiday.

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OPEC agrees on another oil production boost as Strait remains blocked

OPEC+ members announced Sunday they would modestly boost production as worldwide oil supplies tighten and prices spike amid the American-Israeli war on Iran. File Photo by Olivier Matthys/EPA

April 5 (UPI) — Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said Sunday they will again modestly boost oil production as war rages in Iran and the Persian Gulf, although the move is largely symbolic as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

As first they did in March, the eight OPEC+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — on Sunday agreed to a 206,000 barrel-per-day production increase amid attacks by Iran on the oil and gas facilities of several of its members in the Persian Gulf.

Iran has blocked the key Strait of Hormuz shipping lane in response to the American and Israel attacks that started on Feb. 28.

Since then the global price of oil has shot up by close to 60% while gas prices at the pump in the United States have surpassed $4 per gallon.

Although the waterway remains choked off, the OPEC+ move indicated producers will likely ramp up production to help alleviate the worldwide oil shock once the Strait is reopened and production facilities in the Gulf states are secured from Iranian drones and missiles.

U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday continued to threaten Iran with destruction of civilian and military infrastructure by Tuesday unless Tehran loosens its grip on the Strait.

But Iran has remained defiant, continuing to launch drone attacks against OPEC members who host U.S. military facilities, particularly targeting Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, where critical infrastructure again came under attack on Sunday.

Damage was sustained at civilian facilities in all three countries, officials reported.

The Kuwait Petroleum Corp. announced “significant material losses” after Iranian drone attacks on several of its facilities, the KUNA news agency reported.

Meanwhile, Kuwaiti Interior Ministry spokesman Brig. Gen. Nasser Bousleib said officials had registered nine reports of falling shrapnel during the preceding 24 hours, boosting the total of such incidents since the beginning of the Iranian aggression to 678.

An Iranian flag stands amid the destruction in Enghelab Square following the attacks carried out by the United States and Israel on Tehran, Iran, on March 4, 2026. Photo by Nahal Farzaneh/UPI | License Photo

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OPEC+ agrees to hike oil output, warns of slow recovery after attacks | OPEC News

The rise is largely symbolic as some key members are unable to raise ​production amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a rise that is largely symbolic as some of its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of ⁠February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq.

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In a statement on Sunday, eight members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to increase May quotas during a virtual meeting.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability,” the statement read.

“The eight countries also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability,” it added.

While the quota increase represents less than two percent of the supply disrupted by the closure of the strait, OPEC+ sources told the Reuters news agency that the pledge had signalled readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high amid the war, close to $120 a barrel, leading to higher prices for transport fuels.

On Thursday, JPMorgan said oil prices could spike above $150, an all-time high, if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May.

May’s increase is the same as the eight members had agreed on for April at their last meeting on March 1. But amid the war, oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as much as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15 percent of global supply.

 

INTERACTIVE - Different types of crude oil - March 13, 2026-1773391867
(Al Jazeera)

With the strait still closed, Iran has allowed some countries in the region to use the waterway.

Iran has said Iraq was exempt from any transit restrictions through the strait, with shipping data on Sunday showing a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the waterway.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday that deputy foreign minister-level talks were being held with Iran to discuss ⁠⁠options to ensure the smooth transit of vessels through the Strait ‌‌of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump threatened to escalate attacks and target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday.

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