Oil prices

Published on
01/04/2026 – 9:58 GMT+2

Renewed optimism over a possible de-escalation in the Iran war, now in its fifth week, gave a strong boost to stock markets in Europe and Asia on Wednesday.

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At the time of writing, the Euro Stoxx 50 is up over 1%, while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 is around 2.5% higher.

In London, the FTSE 100 has risen roughly 0.8% with Germany’s DAX 30 and France’s CAC 40 making equal moves to the upside. Italy’s FTSE MIB has jumped the most and is 1.7% higher.

During a press gaggle at the White House on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump stated that the country would “probably” stop attacks on Iran within two to three weeks “‘whether we have a deal or not”.

Following Trump’s comments, the front month future contracts for oil also saw a sharp decline, with Brent crude and WTI both trading around 4% lower and below $100 a barrel.

Trump also stressed that the US would “not have anything to do with” what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz.

Despite the relief, markets are eagerly anticipating Trump’s address to the nation about the conflict, which will occur overnight on Wednesday, according to the White House Press Secretary.

Asian markets, US futures and precious metals

Asian shares also rose sharply on Wednesday after Trump’s statement.

At the time of writing, South Korea’s Kospi has recovered losses from earlier this week, surging over 8%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 rose more than 2%.

A survey by Japan’s central bank released on Wednesday showed that business sentiment among major manufacturers had improved despite concerns over the Iran war.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index is also over 2% higher, while the Shanghai Composite has jumped around 1.5%. Additionally, India’s Sensex rose roughly 2%, Australia’s ASX 200 is up 1% and Taiwan’s Taiex climbed more than 4%.

“De-escalation hopes have given markets a lift, but we think the effects of the war would, in many cases, persist even if it were to end soon,” said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics, in a research note on Wednesday.

US futures are also all trading between 0.7% and 1.2% higher.

The move comes after US stocks recorded their strongest day in almost a year on Tuesday, when the S&P 500 rose 2.9%, its largest gain since May.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2.5%, while the Nasdaq jumped 3.8%.

“It’s worth considering how markets might respond if the war were to end very soon. Do markets have further to recover if sentiment continues to improve? The answer is almost certainly yes,” Mathews added.

In other trading, gold rose is up 1.4% trading at around $4,730 while silver is down roughly 1% to $74.3 an ounce.

Investors remain wary, as the Wall Street Journal report came on the same day the US president threatened to destroy Iran’s key oil export hub and desalination plants unless it accepts a deal, while also suggesting that diplomacy was making progress.

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The news comes as governments around the world scramble to implement measures to ease the burden of surging fuel prices while also seeking to conserve energy, with around one-fifth of global crude oil and gas passing through the waterway.

The Wall Street Journal, citing administration officials, said Trump and his aides had concluded that a mission to reopen the waterway would extend beyond his four- to six-week timeline. It added that he had decided to focus on targeting Iran’s missiles and navy, before seeking to pressure the country diplomatically to reopen the Strait.

Further fuelling concerns, a drone struck a Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai waters, causing a fire on Tuesday morning. Dubai authorities said the blaze had already been extinguished, but concerns about a potential oil spill remain.

Maritime traffic disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil normally passes, remain a key pressure point for global energy supplies. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump has “options available” in response to Tehran’s threats to control the strait, after Iran was reported to have effectively created a “toll booth” there.

Both major oil benchmarks fell on Tuesday, though West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude remained well above $100 a barrel. At 7 a.m. CET, the international benchmark Brent was trading at nearly $113, while WTI crude was above $102 a barrel.

Most equity markets in Asia rose briefly, but by this point Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 was down 1.3%, South Korea’s Kospi had fallen 3.3%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng had shed 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite index was down 0.4%.

US futures were up between 0.6% and 0.8%.

In other early Tuesday trading, gold and silver prices rose. Gold was up 0.7% at $4,587.80 an ounce, while silver climbed 2.4% to $72.25 per ounce.

The US dollar stood at 159.61 Japanese yen, down from 159.71 yen. The euro was trading at $1.1472, up from $1.1465.

Published on 30/03/2026 – 7:07 GMT+2•Updated
8:29

European markets are set to open lower on Monday, with futures pointing to declines across major indices as investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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As of early morning trading, Germany’s DAX was down around 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell roughly 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 was also in negative territory, according to IG data.

The weaker outlook follows losses in Asia, where shares mostly dipped overnight as concerns persisted around soaring oil prices and the potential for further escalation in the US war with Iran.

The declines follow steep losses on Wall Street on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive losing week — the longest such streak in nearly four years.

“US equity markets remained under sustained pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 sliding 3.2%. The Dow Jones held up comparatively better, declining 0.9%, owing to its lower technology weighting. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones have now officially entered correction territory after recording drawdowns of more than 10% below their respective peaks,” IG market analyst Fabien Yip said in a commentary note.

Asia-Pacific markets lower overnight

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 4.5% in early trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 3.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.7% lower.

Investor worries have been particularly acute due to the risk of disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Benchmark Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking an increase of more than 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Prices were just over $70 a barrel when the war started. US benchmark crude was also up, at around $101 a barrel, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.

The surge comes as US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of American forces seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. He made the comment in an interview published early Monday by the Financial Times.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the newspaper. “It would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked about Iranian defences there, he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

The US has already launched airstrikes it said targeted military positions on the island. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and new attacks if US troops land on its territory.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors are set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the conflict and its consequences. It will mark the fourth time since the start of the war in Iran the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.

Asian stock markets saw major declines on Monday as gold futures dropped 8% and crude oil prices continued to climb amid heightened uncertainty in the Middle East.

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As the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global supply, benchmark US crude rose above $100 a barrel on Monday morning in Europe.

Brent crude, the international standard, went up to more than $113 a barrel. The price of Brent crude has zigzagged lately from about $70 per barrel before the war began to as high as $119.50.

European stock indexes opened with losses, with the FTSE in London losing 1.5%, the CAC-40 in Paris being down by 1.6%, and the DAX in Frankfurt dropping by 2% at the opening.

Earlier on Monday, the International Energy Agency warned that the global economy faces a “major, major threat” because of the Iran war and that at least 40 energy assets across nine countries were damaged.

Meanwhile, the de-escalation of the conflict is nowhere near in sight.

Trump warned over the weekend that the US would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if it does not fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours, prompting Tehran to say it would respond to any such strike with attacks on US and Israeli energy and infrastructure assets in the region.

“Trump’s ultimatum and Iran’s retaliatory warnings point to a widening conflict that keeps energy disruption and market volatility elevated, with no clear off-ramp in sight,” said Ng Jing Wen, analyst at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.

In Europe, the benchmark natural gas futures were trading above €60 per MWh at the market open.

This follows last week’s gains as escalating threats to Middle Eastern energy facilities heightened fears of deeper supply disruptions.

In Asia, stock markets were also significantly impacted by the uncertainty around the Middle East crisis, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropping 3.5%. In Taiwan, the Taiex shed 2.5%, South Korea’s Kospi dropped 6.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 3.8% and the Shanghai Composite declined 3.6%.

Higher oil prices, which also shook stock markets on Friday, dashed hopes for a possible upcoming cut in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, analysts said. Before the war, traders were betting that the Fed would cut rates at least twice this year. Central banks in Europe, Japan and the United Kingdom also recently held their interest rates steady.

The S&P 500 fell 1.5% Friday to close its fourth straight losing week, its longest such streak in a year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 443 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 2%.

On Wall Street, roughly three out of every four stocks in the S&P 500 fell on Friday.

Stocks of smaller companies, which can feel the pinch of higher interest rates more than their bigger rivals, led the way lower. The Russell 2000 index of smaller stocks fell a market-leading 2.3%.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury finished last week with a jump to 4.38% Friday from 4.25% late Thursday and from just 3.97% before the war started.

The two-year Treasury yield, which more closely tracks expectations for what the Fed might do, rose to 3.88% from 3.79%.

In currency trading, the US dollar rose to 159.53 Japanese yen from 159.22 yen. The euro cost $1.1526, down from $1.1571.

Published on 18/03/2026 – 16:20 GMT+1•Updated
16:25

Brent crude oil prices reached $110 a barrel on Wednesday afternoon, after Iranian state media reported that part of the South Pars gas field, the largest plant in Iran, and the Asaluyeh oil facility were struck by Israel.

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Moreover, the US oil benchmark WTI also rose and is trading at $98 a barrel at the time of writing.

In response to the latest Israeli attacks, the IRGC announced that some Gulf energy sites are once again “legitimate targets”.

The prospect of escalation and prolongation of the conflict in the Middle East, resulting in further destruction of energy infrastructure, and consequently disruption to global markets, has sent oil prices higher once again.

The climb occurs despite other positive news that would normally have a dampening effect on energy markets.

Saudi Arabia confirmed on Wednesday that its biggest oil refinery, Ras Tanura, restarted operations on 13 March.

Additionally, the Trump administration officially announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, a century-old maritime law that restricts the movement of cargo between US ports to vessels that are American-built, American-owned, American-flagged and crewed.

However, in the face of increased tensions and more attacks on oil infrastructure, these potentially mitigating developments have not had any effect in taming prices.

Trump administration confirms Jones Act waiver

The White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed the Trump administration’s decision to issue a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act.

The measure lifts the restriction on the movement of cargo between US ports, allowing foreign tankers temporarily and cheaply to transport vital resources such as oil, gas and fertilisers along the US coastline.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Leavitt explained that the decision is “just another step to mitigate the short-term disruptions to the oil market as the US military continues meeting the objectives of Operation Epic Fury.”

The last Jones Act waiver was issued in October 2022 for a tanker supplying Puerto Rico after Hurricane Fiona.

Before that, the Biden administration temporarily eased the law in 2021 for refiner Valero Energy, after a cyberattack crippled a major East Coast fuel pipeline.

Trump renews pressure on allies to secure the Strait of Hormuz

In a separate development, US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on allies to join a naval escort mission in order to secure the Strait of Hormuz and normalise the circulation of vessels in the region.

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump argued that allied countries need to use the Strait of Hormuz while the US does not, and warned that they could be left managing it on their own in the aftermath of the war.

Since President Trump’s original request, no firm commitments have emerged, but on Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported that the White House plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to join the escort mission.

The report also stated that officials are still deliberating whether such an operation would start before or after the war ends.

After meeting in Brussels, EU foreign ministers discussed extending the bloc’s Aspides naval mission to the Strait of Hormuz, but ultimately declined to participate.

In a blow to Brits planning to get away for summer 2026, experts have revealed that the situation in the Middle East could cause holiday prices to rise, even in destinations not affected by the conflict

Brits planning to get away overseas for Easter or summer this year are being warned they may need to expand their budget, as holiday prices could rise across all destinations.

Hannah Mayfield, a qualified financial advisor, has explained that the situation in the Middle East could have a “knock-on effect” on prices, following similar patterns seen during times of instability. Even those who opt for a UK-based staycation, or visit countries nowhere near the Middle East, could see higher prices for flights, accommodation, and even everyday spending.

Hannah explained: “Rising tensions in the Middle East can have a knock-on effect on holiday costs, even if you’re travelling somewhere completely different. But this isn’t a new phenomenon. We’ve seen similar patterns during previous periods of geopolitical instability, where travellers change their plans and demand shifts toward destinations perceived as safer.”

Hannah, who is working with travel insurers PayingTooMuch, gave the reasons why flight prices could rise: “Airlines can face higher operating costs during periods of geopolitical instability. If flights need to avoid certain airspaces, routes can become longer. At the same time, global oil prices usually rise during conflicts in major energy-producing regions, and that can eventually feed through into the price for fuel. For travellers, that might mean more expensive plane tickets.”

And it’s not just overseas jaunts that could become more expensive. Hannah said: “There’s also the potential impact on taking holidays, especially to destinations closer to home. If some holidaymakers decide not to travel as far afield, demand for popular destinations such as coastal towns, national parks and major cities can increase.

“When that happens, accommodation prices often rise during peak periods, particularly if availability is limited.” This could mean that, like during Covid, staycations could become pricier.

If you’re planning a trip, even to ‘safe’ destinations, you Hannah advises: “When travel feels more uncertain making sure you have the right level of cover for your trip becomes even more important, so you are less likely to face unexpected costs. Booking early, staying flexible with travel dates, comparing travel insurance policies and prices for flights can make a noticeable difference to the overall cost of a trip.”

She also had this warning: “Most standard travel insurance policies don’t cover acts of war, so conflicts itself may not typically have a direct impact on premiums. However, travellers should always check their policy details carefully, so they understand exactly what is and isn’t covered.

“Consider getting a policy that offers additional cover for travel disruptions which can offer another layer of protection in situations where official government travel advice changes and costs can’t be recovered elsewhere. It’s also worth noting that travel insurance does not cover events that are already known at the time the policy is purchased.”

Hannah, who also runs What is Wealth, which offers financial education for women, also gave some additional money saving tips for holidaymakers: “Keeping an eye on exchange rates and fuel prices can also help holidaymakers budget more accurately and avoid unexpected costs closer to their trip.”

Have a story you want to share? Email us at webtravel@reachplc.com

The global energy landscape is facing its most volatile period in decades following the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on 28 February that triggered a wider and potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

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What began as a targeted military operation has rapidly escalated into a direct confrontation with global economic implications.

Based on claims by Iranian state media and regional reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has ostensibly adopted a strategy of “energy blackmail” to leverage the international community into pressuring the US and Israel to cease its attacks.

The $200 per oil barrel threat was first articulated shortly after the conflict began.

On Sunday 1 March, a senior IRGC spokesperson warned that if “cowardly anti-human actions” continued, the world should prepare for a massive price surge, even as high as $200 per oil barrel.

This rhetoric has since become a central pillar of Tehran’s messaging.

As recently as this Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, told state media: “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200, because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised.”

Iran’s tactical disruption

The IRGC’s current strategy relies on “internationalising” the cost of the conflict.

By disrupting the flow of nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to drag the global economy into the fray.

This is why the IRGC has targeted vessels from neutral nations, including ships sailing under Thai, Japanese and Marshall Islands flags, among others.

According to energy analysts, this disruption is designed to create domestic political pressure within Western nations, to in turn force the US and Israel to pull back on military action in exchange for energy stability.

By striking countries that have not attacked them directly, Tehran is signaling that no maritime trade is safe as long as the strikes on its soil continue.

The main vector of this strategy is precisely the disruption of energy markets, an element Iran can influence directly through its geographical advantage.

A history of oil price shocks

While $200 per barrel sounds astronomical, oil has approached similar levels in the past when adjusted for inflation.

The highest nominal price ever recorded was around $147 in 2008, driven by peak oil fears and rampant speculation just before the global financial crisis. When adjusted for 2026 inflation, that 2008 peak represents roughly $211 per barrel.

Previous major shocks, such as the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, saw prices quadruple and double respectively from pre-crisis levels.

In 1980, prices hit a nominal peak of about $39.50, which would be approximately $160 in today’s terms.

However, the current crisis involves a total physical blockade of one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, increasing the risk of a price “moonshot”.

Market response and reserves

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading just above $100 per barrel, a sharp increase from the $60 range seen in mid-February before the Iran war began.

The International Energy Agency has attempted to stabilise the market by orchestrating the largest-ever coordinated release of strategic reserves, but the continuation of Iranian strikes agaisnt oil infrastructure and tankers has largely neutralised the effort.

With insurance providers cancelling war-risk coverage and shipping companies redirecting fleets, the market remains in a state of high anxiety.

If the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz persists, the $200 figure may shift from a political threat to an increasingly likely scenario.

In a recent report, Oxford Economics identified $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

Brent futures rose sharply on Thursday, spiking above $100 before easing slightly but remaining higher than levels seen earlier in the week as markets stay incredibly volatile.

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This comes despite an unprecedented decision by the 32-member International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels to calm markets, more than double the volume released after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Following the IEA decision, Iran stepped up its offensive campaign and launched strikes on Omani oil storage facilities at the Salalah port and multiple ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz, sending prices higher again.

Record coordinated release of reserves

The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels. Germany, France and Italy also confirmed they would tap their stocks, while Japan said it would begin releases next Monday.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol described the current Iran-related crisis as an “oil market challenge unprecedented in scale”, adding that the collective response reflected “strong solidarity” in defence of global energy security.

Exports of crude and refined products from the region have dropped to 10-15% of pre-war levels, with the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil, effectively closed to the large majority of tankers.

Iran’s attacks blunt expected price relief

The new Iranian strikes came at lightning speed, directly after the IEA announcement.

Drones targeted fuel storage tanks and silos at Oman’s Salalah port, igniting fires that Omani authorities were still working to contain late on Wednesday.

British maritime security firm Ambrey confirmed damage to the facilities, while Danish shipping giant Maersk temporarily halted port operations.

Omani officials stressed there had been “no disruption to the continuity of oil supplies or petroleum derivatives” inside the country itself, while Iranian state media reported that President Pezeshkian had assured Oman’s sultan the incident would be investigated.

At the same time, six vessels were struck in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Among the reports, there was confirmation of a projectile hitting a container ship near the UAE and strikes on two tankers in Iraqi waters.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, and other monitoring groups, attributed the incidents to Iranian forces or proxies.

These developments, occurring the very day of the reserves release, appear to have smothered the anticipated calming effect on prices.

As of Thursday, the number of ships struck in the region since the beginning of the conflict rose to at least sixteen.

Record release may signal deeper market concerns

Some analysts note that the sheer volume of the release could itself be interpreted negatively. Previous coordinated actions never exceeded 183 million barrels.

The scale of the release suggests importing nations already view the disruption as the most severe and long-lasting in decades.

Even worse, a record release may not be enough.

Speaking to Euronews, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, was blunt in his assessment.

“A record 400 million barrel release from emergency reserves is helpful, but it’s not going to go very far to offset the roughly 15 million daily supply currently disrupted.”

Patterson also added that “the only solution that will bring oil prices down on a sustained basis is getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.”

Oxford Economics echoes this concern, warning that “the economic effect of higher energy costs rises as the oil price increases,” in a report that seemingly indicates the crisis is far from over and we have yet to feel the compounding effect of the initial shock.

Russian sanctions relief remains off the table

With the reserve release failing to calm prices, attention has turned to Russian oil as a potential source of additional supply.

The US Treasury last week granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian crude from vessels already stranded at sea, though the measure expires on 4 April and deliberately excludes new shipments.

Following the G7 emergency discussions on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the group had agreed “the situation does not justify lifting any sanctions” on Russia, emphasising the need to increase global production instead.

The contrast between Washington’s narrow waiver and the G7’s firm collective position leaves little prospect of sanctions relief acting as a meaningful pressure valve, a view shared by analysts.

“Any sanction relief for Russia would see some marginal supply increases, but again not enough, with Russia’s oil output having held up well in recent years despite sanctions,” Warren Patterson of ING told Euronews.

$140-$150 oil barrel possible if conflict is prolonged

Should tensions persist, analysts warn prices could climb substantially higher.

Oxford Economics identifies $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

The managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, also stated that every 10% increase in oil prices, provided they persist for most of the year, will push up global inflation by 0.4% and reduce worldwide economic output by as much as 0.2%.

“The risk is stark,” Patterson warned. “It’s only a matter of time before we see oil prices hitting fresh record highs if the conflict is not swiftly and decisively resolved.”

The IEA’s intervention has provided a temporary buffer, but with little visible impact on prices.

One the UK’s biggest tour operators has suspended its profit guidance after revealing impact of Middle East war on bookings

Spooked Brits are putting their holiday plans on hold because of the Middle East crisis.

Leading holiday firm On the Beach revealed a “significant” drop in demand from British families to Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, and Egypt. “The timing of when the conflict will end and the shape of recovery in demand to these destinations are unknown,” it said.

At the same time, there are are warnings that the cost of a summer getaways could jump after a spike in jet fuel prices. It comes as many UK families would be booking sunshine trips for the Easter holidays.

The scale of the hit to bookings was enough for On the Beach to suspend its full year profit guidance. Boss Shaun Morton said: “Following the onset of the conflict in the Middle East, our operational teams have been working round the clock to support directly impacted customers in resort and to enable a return home as soon as possible.”

READ MORE: Saudi oil giant warns of ‘catastrophic consequences’ to global fuel suppliesREAD MORE: Mortgage rates hit 5% and deals slump after latest Iran war fall-out

The fall-out from the Iran war has already seen fuel prices jump and the cost of fixed rate mortgages rise. Industry experts Moneyfacts said the average two-year fixed rate mortgage had risen again, from 5.01% 5.04%. The average five-year fixed deal went up from 5.09% to 5.13%.

It came as oil prices remained at around $100 on Thursday – as two tankers were ablaze in Iraqi waters after what appeared to be Iranian strikes.

The latest wave of attacks on oil and transport facilities across the Middle East came as Iran warned the world should be ready for oil to hit $200 a barrel.

The conflict has spread across the region and prompted the International Energy Agency to recommended releasing 400 million barrels from reserves to dampen one of the worst oil shocks since the 1970s, the biggest such intervention in history.

Iran has made clear it intends to impose a prolonged economic shock.

Oil prices, which shot up earlier in the week to nearly $120 a barrel before retreating, jumped almost 10% back above $100 amid renewed fears about supply disruption.

Iranian explosive-laden boats appear to have attacked two fuel tankers in Iraqi waters setting them ablaze and killing one crew member.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said: “Overnight attacks on shipping off Iran are the stuff of nightmares for investors, confirming that one of the world’s key waterways is closed to shipping and resulting in a fresh surge in oil prices.”

US President Donald Trump claimed the IEA decision “will substantially reduce oil prices as we end this threat to America and the world.”

So far there has been no sign that ships can safely sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the now-blockaded channel along the Iranian coast that serves as a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil.

An Iranian military spokesperson said the Strait was “undoubtedly” under Iran’s control.

Oil prices fell sharply after US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war against Iran could be short-lived and that Washington was considering waiving oil-related sanctions on certain countries to ease pressure on crude markets.

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“So in some countries, we’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump told reporters, without naming which countries were under consideration.

The United States currently maintains sanctions affecting oil trade against a small group of countries: Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Syria and North Korea.

Trump also said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday to discuss the war and other issues.

Oil prices retreated from recent highs, with both WTI crude and Brent futures falling more than 9%. Brent was trading just below $90 during the European morning, while WTI stood at $85.40 a barrel.

Prices had briefly surged to their highest level since 2022, nearing $120 a barrel, a day after Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in succession to his late father.

Investors read the appointment as a signal that Tehran was digging in, ten days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.

But prices later fell, and US stocks rose on hopes that the war with Iran may not last much longer.

“We took a little excursion” to the Middle East, “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” Trump told Republican lawmakers at his golf club near Miami.

However, he left open the possibility of an escalation of fighting if global oil supplies are disrupted by the Islamic Republic, which chose a new hardline supreme leader.

Hours later, Trump posted on social media.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far.”

In an apparent response to Trump’s remarks, Iranian state media reported that Ali Mohammad Naini, a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said that “Iran will determine when the war ends”.

Stock markets cheer the news

All major European stock markets opened sharply higher.

The FTSE 100 in London gained more than 1.1%, the CAC 40 in Paris jumped 1.9%, the DAX in Frankfurt rose 2%, benchmark indices in Madrid and Milan were up 2.5%, and the Stoxx 600 gained 1.7%.

Asian shares also rebounded on Tuesday after sharp declines the previous day, as investors wagered the conflict might be short-lived.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 2.9%, also buoyed by revised government data showing Japan’s economy grew at an annual pace of 1.3% in the final quarter of last year — well above the initial estimate of 0.2%, driven by solid business investment.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 5.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.1%.

“Today is the rebound — obviously [after] positive comments from President Trump overnight. We’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the war,” said Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan.

“Volatility is going to remain with us, but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%.

Share prices have been swinging largely in tandem with oil, which has gyrated as the conflict has deepened.

The central uncertainty for markets is how high crude prices will go and how long they will stay there, given ongoing disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure.

If oil remains very high for an extended period, households already stretched by inflation could come under severe pressure, while companies would face sharply higher bills for fuel and logistics.

The risk is a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, where growth stagnates and inflation stays elevated.

Attention has focused in particular on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes on a typical day.

Iran has threatened to attack ships sailing through the strait.

If it remains closed for even a few weeks, oil could push to $150 a barrel or higher, according to strategists at Macquarie Research. Trump said separately that he was “thinking about taking it over,” according to CBS.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 4.10% from 4.15% late Friday after briefly rising above 4.20% on Monday morning as oil price fears pushed yields higher.

Yields retreated when crude eased later in the day.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 157.48 yen from 157.67, while the euro was unchanged at $1.1638.

Gold rose 1.7% to $5,191.8 an ounce. Cryptocurrency markets also gained, with most leading tokens up between 1% and 2%.

Bitcoin outperformed, rising 2.6% to $70,863 according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.

EU economy and finance ministers are gathering in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday to discuss how to respond to surging energy prices and anticipated inflation amid the ongoing strikes and counter-strikes in the Middle East.

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“We are ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilise markets, such as strategic stockpiling,” French Economy Minister Roland Lescure told journalists on Monday after chairing a meeting of G7 finance ministers.

Asked whether G7 finance ministers had agreed on releasing the system’s strategic stockpile, Lescure said: “We are not there yet.”

“What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles. The work is going to keep being done in the next couple of days”, the French minister said.

German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil said on Monday that his country is open to unlocking the oil reserve, but that “this is not the right time”.

The International Energy Agency’s member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

Oil prices have rocketed since the Israeli and US attacks on Iran on 28 February, which killed some 40 Iranian leaders, including the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has now expanded into other countries in the region, including Lebanon and Gulf countries, with retaliatory attacks by Iran hitting civilian energy facilities and US bases.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the former Ayatollah’s son, was elected as successor on Monday, providing continuity in leadership for the current regime.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early on Monday, but later traded around $107.80 after the Financial Times indicated that the use of reserve oil to respond to the crisis was on the table.

Leading European stock market indexes started the week with a big sell-off, following a major drop across Asian markets and surging oil prices.

The war is showing no sign of de-escalation. On 4 March, Qatar announced the suspension of its LNG production; then, over the weekend, Israel struck Iranian energy infrastructure while passage through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained suspended.

Energy prices in Europe will be affected, and inflation is likely to rise in the coming months. However, some EU diplomats and the European Commission indicates that the current situation presents significant differences from the energy crisis Europe experienced when the war in Ukraine started in February 2022.

“Thanks to the decisive actions we have taken over the past years, Europe’s energy system is better prepared and way more resilient today. Our energy sources are more diverse and cleaner. Our coordination is stronger,” European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen wrote on X on 6 March.

He called on the bloc to double down on the energy transition and continue to expand clean and homegrown renewable energy and energy efficiency efficients, all while modernising Europe’s energy infrastructure.

Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo told journalists on Monday that the EU should take inspiration from the response to the 2022 crisis as it formulates its response to the war.

A different crisis?

This crisis is also structurally different from the one that exploded in 2022, an EU government official told Euronews.

When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Europe needed an “infrastructure reset” with a new portfolio of suppliers, the official said – whereas in the current case, “the release of reserves and re-opening of routes could see prices going down faster”.

However, the situation remains extremely volatile, as it is highly dependent on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and when production will resume in top LNG-exporting countries.

Discussions on Monday and Tuesday among EU ministers are expected to touch upon energy prices with the European Commission, while euro-area ministers are set to discuss with the European Central Bank how the war could impact inflation and the overall macroeconomic outlook.

While EU ministers are not expecting to put forward a common strategy on the table by the end of the meetings, the EU institutions will present an update of the situation. Most of the member states will likely present their remarks based on their national assessment of the war’s impact, an EU diplomat told Euronews.

Maria Tadeo contributed reporting.

Published on 09/03/2026 – 17:06 GMT+1•Updated
17:14

G7 finance ministers discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves on Monday but failed to reach agreement, with France’s Roland Lescure saying the group was “not there yet” on a deal.

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The G7 was exploring a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to tamp down fears of an impending shortage but stopped short of a deal.

Japan’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) explicitly requested the coordinated release during the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.

Brent crude briefly hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday morning, its highest level since 2022, having jumped roughly 25% since Friday as the Iran war intensified, raising fears over global production and shipping.

At the time of writing, oil prices pared gains and are trading slightly below $100 a barrel, as markets remain highly volatile.

Stock markets fell worldwide on concerns the global economy would not be able to absorb a sustained oil price shock.

Equity markets drop over uncertainty

At the open on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, coming off its worst week since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% and the Nasdaq composite 1.2% lower.

The most immediate pain on Wall Street is hitting companies with large fuel bills. Carnival lost 7.3%, United Airlines sank 6.9% and Old Dominion Freight fell 3.8%.

Retailers dependent on long-haul shipping, whose customers are also facing higher petrol costs, also struggled. Best Buy fell 4.4% and Williams-Sonoma dropped 4%.

The moves followed steeper losses in European and Asian markets, where economies are more exposed to imported oil and gas. South Korea’s Kospi sank 6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 5.2% and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 1%.

Potential stagflation scenario

Since the war with Iran began, the central worry for financial markets has been how high oil prices will go and how long they will stay there.

If prices stay very high for very long, household budgets already stretched by high inflation could break under the pressure.

Meanwhile, companies would see their own bills jump for key items such as fuel and stock items, as well as for powering their data centres.

It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, or a period when economic growth stagnates and inflation remains persistently high.

Late on Sunday, President Donald Trump countered this narrative by assuring that high oil prices at the moment are both worth the cost and only temporary.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.15%, where it ended Friday.

Worries about high inflation and oil prices are applying upward pressure on Treasury yields, while risks of a slowing economy are pulling in the opposite direction.

Concerns about stagflation deepened on Friday following a surprisingly weak US jobs report showing that employers cut more jobs last month than they added.

European stock markets were all in negative territory on Monday morning after weak sentiment in Asian markets, where Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 5% and Taiwan’s benchmark fell 4.4%.

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Other Asian markets also tumbled after oil prices soared to nearly $120 a barrel, casting a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imported crude and gas from the region.

In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 was down 1.6%, while Frankfurt’s DAX, Paris’s CAC 40 and Milan’s FTSE MIB were all down more than 2.4%, as of 09:30 CET. Madrid’s IBEX 35 fell nearly 2.7%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 lost about 2%.

While rising oil and gas prices are threatening Europe’s economic outlook this year, trading sentiment was further impacted on Monday by worse-than-expected data from Germany.

German industrial production and factory orders both fell at the start of the year. Output decreased by 0.5% in January following a revised 1% decline the previous month, the statistics office said on Monday.

Meanwhile, investor expectations are rising that the European Central Bank could raise benchmark interest rates this year, as soaring energy prices fuel fears that inflation may surge.

The panic in the stock market unfolded as oil prices became the main focus for investors.

Oil prices soaring

Oil prices rocketed higher as both sides in the Iran conflict struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian infrastructure. The war, now in its second week, involves regions critical to the production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Prices moderated after the Financial Times reported that some members of the Group of Seven (G7) were considering releasing strategic oil reserves to ease pressure on markets. The unconfirmed report cited unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.

Oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel before falling back on Monday as the conflict intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East and rattling global financial markets.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early in the day but later traded around $107.80.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, spiked to $119.48 per barrel but fell back to around $103 by the European market open.

Strikes on Iranian oil facilities risk increasing pressure on an already tight global energy market, analysts warned. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said “Iran accounts for roughly 4% of global oil supply, and around 90% of its exports are directed to China.”

The world’s second-largest economy has vast reserves, but analysts say any prolonged damage to Iran’s export capacity could weigh on its economic recovery and eventually affect global markets.

James also warned that attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Gulf risk escalating tensions and unsettling markets that had initially expected the conflict to be resolved quickly.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict, the European gas market is also under pressure. Natural gas futures jumped more than 14% on Monday to above €61 per megawatt-hour, nearing their highest level in three years and extending last week’s 67% surge.

Several major producers in the region have cut back output, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant — was shut down last week.

Russia has also warned it could halt natural gas exports to Europe, adding to market anxiety.

At the same time, Europe’s gas reserves remain low, with EU storage levels below 30% and requiring refilling.

Early Monday, the US dollar, which retains its status as a safe-haven asset, gained against other major currencies. It was trading at 158.46 Japanese yen, up from 158.09 late Friday. The euro rose slightly to $1.1558 from $1.1556.

In other trading, gold prices were down more than 1% on Monday morning in Europe, trading around $5,100, while cryptocurrencies were mostly higher. One bitcoin traded at $67,774, up 0.7%.

IMF: ‘Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it’

As fears grow over how long the war could last — and with Asian markets, often seen as engines of global growth, under heavy pressure — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that policymakers must prepare for the “unthinkable.”

“If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation, placing new demands on policymakers,” Georgieva said in a keynote speech at a symposium in Tokyo on Monday.

She reminded her audience that, as a rule of thumb, every 10% increase in oil prices — if sustained through most of the year — could raise global headline inflation by about 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1–0.2%.

“And if, as we all hope, the conflict ends soon, then be sure that, before long, some new shock will come. My advice to policymakers everywhere in this new global environment? Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it,” she added.

European stock markets turned early gains into losses by early afternoon, following a rally in Asian markets, as investors searched for direction nearly a week after the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran that sent global markets on a rollercoaster.

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By 2 p.m. CET, Germany’s DAX was down by 0.2%, similar to the CAC 40 in Paris and Britain’s FTSE 100.

Madrid’s IBEX stood out by gaining 0.3% as the European benchmark European Stoxx 600 was down by a few points.

Before noon, European trading followed strong gains in Asia, where South Korea’s Kospi jumped by more than 9%, recovering much of Wednesday’s 12.06% fall.

“A decent showing on Wall Street last night and a solid performance from Asia on Thursday helped to spur part of Europe into a higher gear,” said Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at AJ Bell, commenting on the morning trade.

Uncertainty about the war in the Middle East has continued to rattle financial markets, with investors closely watching movements in the oil price.

Crude prices continued to rise. US benchmark WTI was trading 3% higher at around $76.8 a barrel, while the international benchmark Brent crude was up 2% after 2 pm CET.

“Brent crude continued to move higher, nudging above $83 per barrel and stoking fears that energy bills will go through the roof,” Coatsworth said.

“Oil is so important to the world economy and to see the price rise so quickly in just a week could leave investors feeling dazed and confused.”

He added that the situation in the Middle East was unfolding rapidly, making it difficult for investors to judge whether markets were facing a prolonged energy crisis or “just a short, sharp shock”.

Meanwhile, US futures slipped as Iran launched more missiles at Israel on the sixth day of the conflict.

The latest escalation included Iranian attacks on Israeli and American bases. Iran warned the United States would “bitterly regret” torpedoing an Iranian warship in the Indian Ocean, while a religious leader called for “Trump’s blood”.

Israel said it had begun a “large-scale” attack on Tehran.

On Wednesday, US stocks rose as oil prices steadied, albeit temporarily.

Investor sentiment was also supported by a report showing growth in US businesses in the real estate, finance and other services sectors accelerated last month at the fastest pace since the summer of 2022.

The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, erasing much of its losses since the conflict with Iran began.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3%.

Another report suggested US private-sector employers increased hiring last month, a potentially positive signal ahead of a broader US government labour market report due on Friday.

Investors remain concerned about how long the conflict could last, how much inflation may rise due to higher oil prices, and what impact that could have on corporate profits.

Gains in major technology companies also lifted Wall Street.

Amazon rose 3.9%, while Nvidia added 1.7%. As two of the largest companies in the US market by value, their movements have a significant impact on the S&P 500.

Wednesday’s strong economic data was also welcome news for the Federal Reserve, which is trying to keep the labour market strong while bringing inflation under control.

However, the jump in oil prices could complicate that task by pushing inflation higher.

In other dealings on Thursday, gold trade was slightly down by early afternoon, losing 0.3% and traded at $5,120 an ounce.

The US dollar traded at 157.64 Japanese yen, while the euro slipped to $1.1623 from $1.1636.

Analysts said the dollar has strengthened partly because the US is seen as facing less direct risk from the conflict than other countries.