negotiations

Dinorah Figuera was allowed to return from exile thanks to her participation in this initiative. The same happens with some members of the opposition delegation

On August 1, representatives of Venezuela’s two rival legislatures sit down together under Washington’s supervision in the most concrete attempt to negotiate again since the Barbados talks of 2023. 

The talks, framed by Washington as the start of a transition, are driven by the Department of State and pair two delegations of ten. On one side sits the current National Assembly controlled by chavismo, led by its president Jorge Rodríguez. On the other is the Comisión Delegada of the National Assembly elected in 2015 — the last legislature the US and many other countries recognized as democratically legitimate. 

According to Dinorah Figuera, president of the Delegate Commission, the primary objective is laying out the institutional groundwork for a political transition: renovating Venezuela’s key state bodies, establishing a new National Electoral Council (CNE) capable of holding elections with credible guarantees, and extending to the Supreme Tribunal’s electoral and constitutional chambers. Figuera has said she hopes to deliver a transition proposal by December 2026, conveniently timed for the Trump administration to show a foreign-policy success just after the US midterm legislative election in November.

Figuera and Jorge Rodríguez first met on June 18, along with U.S. Chargé d’Affaires John Barrett, hours after Figuera returned to Caracas after years in exile. Those contacts were interrupted by the June 24 earthquakes, seeming as though the political track would freeze indefinitely behind the humanitarian emergency, especially as Delcy Rodríguez said on July 13 that the government had “no head” to think about elections while managing the disaster. 

The roots of Dinorah Figuera, the opposition’s co-chair, lie on the left. She belonged to the labor party La Causa R in the 1990s (then an important force in the rising Venezuelan Left) and served as deputy secretary of the Libertador municipality in Caracas under Aristóbulo Istúriz, who later jumped onto the chavista wagon. She eventually joined Primero Justicia and was re-elected as a lawmaker in 2015 before being forced into exile in 2018. Shortly after she led protests denouncing the death of party colleague Fernando Albán under SEBIN custody —a PJ councilman, key aide to Julio Borges and the godfather of Figuera’s daughter— she was threatened by the intelligence services and took shelter in the French Embassy of Caracas for 10 days before fleeing to Spain and receiving political asylum. 

Sources close to Primero Justicia describe Figuera as a principled politician willing to serve without seeking personal or financial gain from her sacrifices. She maintained a very low profile in this role until the State Department elevated her visibility several weeks ago.

While exiled in Spain, and following the collapse of the interinato, Figuera succeeded Juan Guaidó as the figure managing Venezuela’s overseas assets in the US via the 2015 National Assembly’s Comisión Delegada (recognized by Washington as Venezuela’s sole democratically elected institution until this year). Sources close to Primero Justicia describe Figuera as a principled politician willing to serve without seeking personal or financial gain from her sacrifices. She maintained a very low profile in this role until the State Department elevated her visibility several weeks ago. Figuera and US representatives have been undertaking preparatory meetings in Madrid for over two weeks, coordinated by Mauricio Claver-Carone, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s principal interlocutor on Venezuela.

Figuera has called herself “an instrument” of the reinstitutionalization process. She acknowledges Edmundo González Urrutia as president-elect and María Corina Machado as the opposition’s leader, yet notes she holds “a different vision.” She is, in the role the State Department has cast for her, what Edmundo González was to Machado in 2024: a figure admitted by chavista institutions because she isn’t a threat, and little enough ambition to follow guidelines from influential people in the opposition alliance.

Jorge Rodríguez, her counterpart, is chavismo’s veteran negotiator and the brother of acting president Delcy Rodríguez. He led the government’s delegation in the Mexico talks of 2021–2022 and signed the 2023 Barbados Agreement on Maduro’s behalf. Before that, he was Chávez’s vice president, communications minister, and president of the CNE in 2005–2006. 

Up until yesterday, the opposition’s full roster was not yet public. The opposition’s ten were revealed in stages and through extraofficial communications. In June, El Pitazo confirmed six names: Dinorah Figuera, Juan Miguel Matheus, Ramón López, Jorge Millán, Marco Aurelio Quiñones and Sergio Vergara. The remaining four were disclosed on July 29th: Elimar Díaz, Julio César Moreno, Macario González and Desiré Barboza.

Six are from Primero Justicia: Figuera, constitutional lawyer Juan Miguel Matheus, engineer Ramón López, Caracas legislator Jorge Millán, and recent additions Elimar Díaz and Julio César Moreno. 

Four are from Voluntad Popular, Leopoldo López’s party: Marco Aurelio Quiñones; Táchira legislator Sergio Vergara; and late additions Macario González and Desiré Barboza. Nearly all have spent recent years in exile, or in González’ case, in detention. Several are returning only now, under the process’s complicit US security guarantee. 

For most of the last two years, Primero Justicia has effectively been two parties. After Henrique Capriles chose to participate in the 2025 regional and legislative elections, the party’s official leadership, aligned with Machado’s abstentionist line, expelled him, Tomás Guanipa, and others for legitimizing what it called a fraud. Both Tomás Guanipa and Capriles were elected members of the NA that Rodríguez presides over. What remained of Primero Justicia, keeping the party’s name and recognition, was the abstentionist wing, led by Juan Pablo Guanipa, with Julio Borges as coordinator and María Beatriz Martínez as president. 

The delegation Washington seated is drawn substantially from the faction of Primero Justicia most doctrinally opposed to negotiating an electoral path with chavismo. The party has tried to hold both positions: in its July 27 statement it backed the dialogue as a route toward free elections while, in the same breath, ratifying its support for Machado. 

Who’s Who?

Juan Miguel Matheus (PJ, Carabobo) is a lawyer with a PhD in constitutional and parliamentary law behind the Estatuto que rige la Transición a la Democracia, the legal framework that underpinned Guaidó’s 2019 interim presidency. Elected for Carabobo in 2015, he was among the sharpest critics of the 2017 Constituent Assembly, calling it fraudulent. He is in exile in Austin and coordinates PJ’s board of directors. 

Ramón López (PJ, Distrito Capital) is an engineer and the former vice president of Venezuela’s Colegio de Ingenieros. López sat in the 2015 Assembly and the Parlasur, Mercosur’s parliament. Exiled in Spain after being threatened by Diosdado & Co., he became PJ’s international spokesperson. He flew back to Caracas alongside Figuera on June 18 for the meetings that launched the process..

Jorge Millán (PJ, Distrito Capital) is an industrial engineer and administrator. Millán is PJ’s Caracas coordinator and one of the opposition’s longtime specialists on the collapse of the national electric system. In 2019, the Constituent Assembly ordered his prosecution on charges including treason and instigation to insurrection. When Maduro issued him a pardon in 2020, Millán rejected it, arguing he had committed no crime and that Maduro had no legitimacy to pardon anyone. 

Elimar Díaz (PJ, Zulia) is the delegation’s youngest member. Díaz began in Manuel Rosales’s Un Nuevo Tiempo before moving to Primero Justicia, where she is now national political coordinator and PJ’s political vice-president in Zulia.

Julio César Moreno (PJ, Falcón) has the thinnest public record of the ten. Moreno was elected to the 2015 Assembly for Falcón and is counted among Primero Justicia’s delegates.

Marco Aurelio Quiñones (VP, Anzoátegui) was elected for Anzoátegui in 2015. In his early career, he was close to Capriles and Borges in Primero Justicia and then crossed to Voluntad Popular in late 2016, becoming a close ally of Guaidó. In December 2024 the exiled Assembly swore him in as second vice president, filling the seat left by Auristela Vásquez’s resignation and making him the highest-ranking officer of the 2015 legislature at the table after Figuera.

Sergio Vergara (VP, Táchira) is a founding member of Voluntad Popular alongside Leopoldo López and Daniel Ceballos. He was elected for Táchira in 2015 with nearly 76% of his circuit’s vote. He served as acting mayor of San Cristóbal after Ceballos was jailed in 2014, and has been in exile since 2019, when the SEBIN raided his home in connection with the Roberto Marrero case. He is also among the signatories of the document tied to the failed Jordan Goudreau incursion, asking for a military foreign intervention.

Macario González (VP, Lara) is a veteran Lara politician and former mayor of Barquisimeto’s Iribarren municipality. González was detained by the SEBIN in September 2025 as he left a university in Barquisimeto, held incommunicado, in what Voluntad Popular denounced as a forced disappearance for what he says was 68 days without charge, judicial hearing, or explanation. He was released near midnight on November 19, 2025, hours after the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights granted him precautionary measures. He has publicly held Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello politically responsible for his detention.

Capriles, now sitting in the Rodríguez-controlled national assembly, cautioned that a negotiation excluding Machado “will be condemned to fail.” 

Desiré Barboza (VP, Zulia) was an alternate deputy for Zulia in the 2015 Assembly and is Voluntad Popular’s regional coordinator there. Like most of the delegation, she has built her recent political life in exile and within the structures of the 2015 legislature.

On the ‘chavista’ side, only Jorge Rodríguez has been named to the time of writing. While the opposition’s ten were leaked or rumored until confirmed, the radio silence from those representing the current national assembly clashes awkwardly with Diosdado Cabello’s boasts of chavista unity. Francisco Arias Cárdenas, 1992 coup veteran and former Zulia governor, urged Rodríguez’s delegation to consult the PSUV’s base and submit any agreement to the Venezuelan public, warning that dialogue must not become a matter of simply following Washington’s instructions. 

The positions around the table

Primero Justicia and Un Nuevo Tiempo have called August 1 a “historic opportunity,” with PJ setting conditions: free, fair elections and the restoration of popular sovereignty. Voluntad Popular was the first to back the US initiative outright. But Acción Democrática’s Henry Ramos Allup has warned against any process that sidelines the coalition and Machado. Capriles, now sitting in the Rodríguez-controlled national assembly, cautioned that a negotiation excluding Machado “will be condemned to fail.” 

Machado and González stated their own position on July 26, claiming they will neither participate in nor obstruct the process, having taken no part in its “design, construction and functioning,” and will judge it by concrete, verifiable results: institutional recovery, the release of political prisoners, guarantees without exclusions, a presidential electoral calendar, and respect for popular sovereignty. 

We know from statements issued by the 2015 National Assembly Delegated Commission, the 2026 National Assembly, and the State Department that August 1 was set as the launching date of a roadmap leading to a political transition in Venezuela.

The incentives for the various actors to accelerate or delay this political negotiation process are clear. The Venezuelan interim government (as the State Department statement refers to it) will have an interest in delaying the process as much as possible to prolong its time in power and preserve the current state of affairs. For the 2015 National Assembly Delegated Commission, it offers a window of opportunity to gain relevance and demonstrate its ability to accelerate the agenda that Dinorah Figuera announced before any other actor. The Trump administration will want this process to proceed at a pace that does not jeopardize its control of the country until the elections (and perhaps even after). It is in María Corina Machado’s best interest for the situation to develop in a way that allows her to gain control and create the conditions for her to be the opposition candidate in the upcoming presidential elections.

Other, less prominent actors will try to influence the process. We have already seen AD leader Henry Ramos Allup trying to position himself, for example, to defend Machado’s participation, as did Henrique Capriles, and other voices will surely emerge along those lines in the coming days. Those aspiring to a new National Assembly and new elections for governorships and mayoralties will certainly also try to influence the process.

But let’s turn to the most relevant conversation, with just under two weeks until August 1: what could be the institutional path to achieving this political transition through free elections?

A new National Electoral Council (CNE)

Since the elections are administered by the National Electoral Council, it would seem that the first step should be, precisely, to elect a new CNE board.

Choosing a reliable one could be the first challenge. What has been offered previously is insufficient: a majority of three or four people close to or allied with the government and one or two “independents” or those close to the opposition. A board is needed that complies with Article 296 of the Constitution, composed of “five people not affiliated with political organizations.”

This CNE must begin with an essential task: the purging and updating of the Permanent Electoral Registry. It is crucial that Venezuelans abroad be allowed to vote and that the necessary logistical and diplomatic conditions be established to make this possible.

A new Supreme Court

Under the Venezuelan constitutional system, the decisions of the CNE can be subject to judicial review by the Supreme Court of Justice (TSJ). Directly by the Electoral Chamber. Indirectly by the Constitutional Chamber.

Therefore, the appointment of new justices to both the Electoral Chamber and the Constitutional Chamber is necessary at the outset of this process. Article 263 of the Constitution clearly outlines the requirements for becoming a Supreme Court Justice. In May of this year, the Supreme Court Law was amended to increase the number of justices from 20 to 32. The Constitutional Chamber (the most important chamber) is composed of seven justices. This increase means that 12 new justices must be elected. Furthermore, a significant number of the current 20 justices are of retirement age.

This, as with the CNE, is debated and decided in the National Assembly, whose majority is controlled by Jorge Rodríguez. It would have to be a decision by chavismo, or the result of a political rupture, for the political rights of the non-government-controlled population to be considered both when electing CNE board members and when appointing Supreme Court justices. This relates to the next point.

Restoring civil and political rights

For several years, Venezuela’s main political parties and actors were subjected to confiscation and persecution through various administrative measures, such as those issued by the Comptroller General of the Republic to disqualify candidates, and even judicial measures to replace the boards of directors of opposition parties like COPEI, Primero Justicia, and Acción Democrática. It is essential to compile a report detailing all these measures and establish an action plan to reverse them, allowing political parties and leaders to operate and return to Venezuela.

Then, reforms must be made to those laws and administrative regulations that, long before January 3rd, restricted freedom of expression and the conditions for holding elections, such as the Constitutional Law Against Hatred, the Simón Bolívar Law, and the Law of the Comptroller General of the Republic. The same must be done with respect to the resolutions of the CNE that have restricted political and civic participation in the electoral processes. Furthermore, cases where it has been argued that the 2026 Amnesty Law is inapplicable, such as that of María Corina Machado, must be reviewed.

Given that the incentives of the actors in this process are not and will not be aligned, as shown above, it is crucial to immediately establish timelines for the phases of the process, beginning August 1. This will allow us to gauge the level of commitment among the parties to move forward with the transition.

There are certainly conditions attached to this process that are not public, and that will shape its phases and pace. However, we must begin a public conversation about ideas for addressing this crucial phase of political life starting August 1.

US Secretary of State says Iranian control over Strait of Hormuz sets ‘dangerous precedent’, as attacks continue.

United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio says his country is willing to negotiate an end to the war on Iran but accuses Tehran of not being “serious” about talks.

“The United States remains open and willing to engage in positive and constructive negotiations and discussions, provided that the commitments made are honoured,” Rubio said about Iran at an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meeting in Manila on Wednesday.

“The problem we’re having right now is that they’re not serious about talks. If they’re serious, we’re serious. If they’re not, then we will do what’s necessary to protect our interests and also the interests of our allies,” he added in the Philippine capital.

This comes as the US launched attacks against Iran for an eleventh consecutive night, with explosions heard in several parts of the country.

As the war continues to disrupt two of the world’s most important routes for the transport of energy, Rubio stressed that he was against Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz.

“If we create a precedent in the Middle East where a nation state can decide that they are going to control an international waterway, charge a toll, and if you don’t pay them blow up your ships, we have created a very dangerous precedent, which will repeat itself in other parts of the world, including in this region,” he said.

“At its core, it’s very simple. Iran demands the right, which they do not have under any existing legal mechanism, to control the transit of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz,” he said.

“There is a fundamental principle about freedom of navigation that is threatened,” he added. “That cannot be allowed to happen.”

Rubio also discussed the US’s relationship with ASEAN member states, saying it is a matter of national interest for Washington and that the security and prosperity of the US and Southeast Asia are closely interconnected.

“I believe very much that the future and the story of the 21st century will be written in this region and by how events unfold here,” he said.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump renewed his threats to, again, attack Iran’s nuclear facilities at Natanz “pretty soon”. Iran promised it would retaliate.

Iran’s Khatam Al-Anbiya military command said in a statement on Tuesday that it would “consider it as an expansion of war in the region” if such an attack were carried out. The statement said it could lead to strikes on “all the interests of America, its allies and supporters”.

Fifty people have been killed and 500 wounded in the recent US attacks on Iran, a health ministry official said.

July 1 (UPI) — Envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and their Iranian counterparts are planning to meet with Qatari negotiators Wednesday for ongoing peace talks.

On Tuesday, Witkoff and Kushner met with the prime minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani. They are scheduled to meet with him again today.

Iran and Qatar have said that there will be no direct, high-level meetings between United States and Iranian officials and that all discussions will be through Qatari intermediaries, The New York Times reported. Today’s negotiations will be about the cease-fire agreement and getting it implemented, a spokesperson told The Times.

Iran’s negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, in an interview with Iran’s state media Tuesday, laid out the most important provisions of the memorandum of understanding signed on June 17.

Ghalibaf said the most important prerequisite provisions to Iranian negotiators were Articles 1, 4, 5, 10 and 11, CNN reported.

Article 1 demands an end to all fighting, including in Lebanon. Israel and Lebanon signed a cease-fire agreement on Saturday, but Hezbollah hasn’t agreed to it.

Article 4 says that the United States must lift its naval blockade and Iran must allow shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy is no longer blocking the strait but it still has a presence there. Article 5 says that Iran will allow passage through the strait with no tolls for 60 days.

The next two articles are about Iranian money and oil sales. Article 10 says the U.S. will allow waivers for Iran to sell its oil, which has happened – at least for 60 days. And Article 11 says that the United States will make frozen Iranian assets available, which is unclear. The United States has said that Iran must fulfill its commitments first.

Traffic through the strait is picking up, with 34 ships passing through on Tuesday, CNN said, though that’s far from pre-war levels, which saw about 100 per day.

US Vice President JD Vance has touted significant progress in talks with Iran over its nuclear programme and Israel’s war on Lebanon, while refusing to commit to an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. He said Trump is trying to bring ‘permanent peace’ to a region that’s been ‘a basket case for a long time’.

In an exclusive interview, Professor and political analyst Mahjoub Zweiri breaks down what intentions behind US-Iran talks will result in.

Ukraine has officially opened the first phase of membership talks with the European Union on Monday. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the opportunity and said it sent a clear message that “Europe’s progress cannot be stopped.”

United States President Donald Trump says he has decided to pause an attack on Iran at the behest of Gulf leaders after Tehran sent a new peace proposal to Washington through Pakistan.

On Monday, Trump said there is now a “very good chance” the US could reach an agreement with Iran to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

An initial, temporary ceasefire commenced on April 8, six weeks into the war. Since then, armed hostilities have largely subsided, but a durable peace agreement remains elusive, with both the US and Iran dissatisfied with each other’s proposed terms.

Also on Monday, Saudi Arabia said it had intercepted three drones, one day after a drone attack hit the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in the United Arab Emirates. This has raised more concerns about the potential for renewed military escalation in the Gulf as peace negotiations drag on.

What has Trump said about a new attack on Iran?

Following the reported drone attacks on the UAE and Saudi Arabia on Sunday and Monday, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post: “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!”

Then, later on Monday, Trump wrote another post, saying he had been asked by the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE to hold off on a planned attack on Iran scheduled for Tuesday since “serious negotiations are now taking place.”

He added that he had instructed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, Chairman of The Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine and the US military not to carry out the scheduled attack. However, he said, he “further instructed them to be prepared to go forward with a full, large scale assault of Iran, on a moment’s notice, in the event that an acceptable Deal is not reached”.

What do we know about the latest peace plan Iran has submitted?

Iran has submitted a revised 14-point peace plan to end the war, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday.

Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a news briefing on Monday that Tehran’s response to the previous US proposal had been “conveyed to the American side through mediator Pakistan”, according to Tasnim.

Washington and Tehran have exchanged multiple proposals in recent weeks amid a ceasefire that has mostly halted six weeks of fighting. However, the initial direct talks mediated by Pakistan in Islamabad in April stalled, and Trump said last week the ceasefire is “on life support”.

While the specific proposals in the latest plan from Iran have not been made public, Baghaei said demands include the release of its assets frozen abroad and the lifting of sanctions.

“The points raised are Iranian demands that have been firmly defended by the Iranian negotiating team in every round of negotiations,” he said.

Iran has also previously demanded compensation for damage inflicted by US-Israeli attacks, an end to the ongoing US naval blockade of Iranian ports and a halt to fighting on all fronts, including in Lebanon, where Israeli forces continue daily attacks and have mounted a ground invasion in the south of the country.

Washington has urged Tehran to dismantle its nuclear programme and lift a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, which, before the war, carried one-fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas ‌(LNG) supply.

What are the main sticking points between Iran and the US?

A major point of contention is Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium. During negotiations, Washington has urged Tehran to give away its enriched uranium, a demand Tehran has resisted.

Iran is believed to have about 440kg (970lb) of uranium enriched to 60 percent. A 90 percent threshold of enriched uranium is needed to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran has never officially declared an intention to build nuclear weapons. The US wants this stock to be handed over to it, but Iran is reportedly only willing to consider handing it to a third party – if at all.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers from BRICS nations in New Delhi last week that Iran and the US have reached a “deadlock” on the question of Iran’s “enriched material”.

As a result, he said, the topic is being “postponed” until later stages in the talks. “For the time being, it is not under discussion, it’s not under negotiation, but we will come to that subject in later stages.”

Araghchi confirmed he had spoken to Russian officials about an offer from Moscow to store Iran’s enriched uranium. He said Iran may consider Russia’s proposal at an “appropriate time” and that he appreciates Moscow’s efforts.

“When we come to that stage, obviously we will have more consultations with Russia and see if the Russian offer can help or not,” he said.

The US and Iran are also arguing about whether Iran should be allowed to enrich uranium at all. Under the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, signed with several countries in 2015, Iran was able to continue enriching to 3.87 percent – enough for the development of a nuclear power programme. Trump withdrew the US from that agreement in 2018, despite consistent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that Iran had stuck to its terms. Now, the US wants a moratorium on all uranium enrichment for a period of up to 20 years, it says.

Another sticking point between the two countries is the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf.

Since early March, Iran has restricted shipping through the strait, a narrow waterway linking Gulf oil producers to the open ocean and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped during peacetime. Iran has allowed passage by vessels from select countries, but they are required to negotiate transit with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

In its previous proposals to end the war, Iran has mentioned charging fees or tolls for vessels seeking to pass through the state. Washington has repeatedly rejected the prospect. In April, the US announced a naval blockade on ships entering or leaving Iranian ports, further adding to the disruption of global oil and gas supplies.

Iran’s state media reported, citing the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, that technical teams from Iran and Oman met in Oman to negotiate a mechanism for safe transit in the Strait of Hormuz.

A third likely major point of friction – although one which may also be kicked into later discussions – is Iran’s support for a network of “proxy” armed groups around the Middle East which it calls its “axis of resistance”. These include the Houthis in Yemen, who have also caused disruption by launching attacks on Israel-linked ships in the Red Sea in the past, Hezbollah in Lebanon and multiple groups based in Iraq and Syria.

President Donald Trump on Monday alluded to the U.S. sending troops into Iran to retrieve its highly enriched uranium (HEU). His comments follow similar words on the same topic from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made to 60 Minutes on Sunday. Taken in aggregate, the statements suggest that there is coordinated messaging on the issue between Washington and Jerusalem and, after stalled talks with Iran, the possibility of such an operation may have been elevated.

As we stated shortly after the war kicked off, a mission into Iran to rid the country of its highly enriched nuclear material, once and for all, would be extremely risky and very complex. You can read more about these realities here. The main issue is that, by the Trump administration’s own stated objectives, the current conflict doesn’t really end until the enriched uranium, most of which is likely buried in the rubble of the underground Isfahan nuclear complex, is removed from the country. Estimates state that this stockpile, stored in scuba tank-like cylinders, is likely enough material to construct around a dozen nuclear warheads, that is if a program to fully weaponize it and construct and validate a device were to move forward.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said Iran initially offered to accompany the U.S. into its facilities storing HEU that were severely damaged during last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer attacks.

However, Tehran changed its stance, Trump claimed.

“They said ‘you’re going to have to take it,’” the American president said of Iran’s initial response to the issue of recovering the uranium.

“We were going to go with them, but they changed their mind because they didn’t put it in the paper,” the president added, referring to a peace plan delivered by Iran over the weekend. “So they agree with us, and then they take it back…But I have a great plan, but the plan is they cannot have a nuclear weapon. And they didn’t say that in their letter.”

Trump also played-off the issue this weekend saying U.S. forces are watching the site closely and will kill anyone or anything that gets close to it.

Speaking to 60 Minutes, Netanyahu seemed more direct about a potential ground incursion into Iran, yet evasive about the details. Asked how he envisions the highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran, Netanyahu stated: “You go in, and you take it out.”

“With what? Special forces from Israel, special forces from the United States?” the Israeli leader was quizzed.

“Well, I’m not gonna talk about military means, but what President Trump has said to me, ‘I want to go in there.’ And I think it can be done physically. That’s not the problem. If you have an agreement, and you go in, and you take it out, why not? That’s the best way.”

Netanyahu was purposefully elusive when asked if it would require force to remove the uranium should no agreement be reached.

“Well, you’re gonna ask me these questions. I’m gonna dodge them. Because I’m not gonna talk about our military – possibilities, plans, or anything of the kind,” he proffered. “I’m not gonna give a timetable to it, but I’m gonna say that’s a terrifically important mission.”

Netanyahu says there’s still “work to be done” before Iran war ends | 60 Minutes

The Israeli government “wants Trump to order a special forces operation to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile,” Axios reported on Monday. “Israeli officials say Trump is hesitant to order such an operation because it is highly risky.”

As we have previously reported, Trump is mulling over his options to retrieve the HEU through a special operations mission. Former U.S. Central Command commander, retired Gen. Joseph Votel, also told us at the time that such an endeavor is highly risky and may not achieve its goal. You can read more about his analysis in our interview with him here.

Meanwhile, ending the hostilities remains in question as the U.S. and Iran remain far apart in ceasefire negotiations. Trump on Monday called the aforementioned recent Iranian peace offer a “piece of garbage” that he didn’t finish reading and added that the ceasefire is on “massive life support.”

Trump is “leaning toward taking some form of military action against Iran to increase pressure on the regime and force concessions on its nuclear program,” Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials.

“He will tune them up a bit,” one U.S. official told the outlet. “I think we all know where this is going,” a second U.S. official said.

Regardless, two U.S. officials told Axios they don’t think Trump would order military action against Iran before he returns from China.

President Donald Trump is likely to press President Xi Jinping over China’s approach to Iran when they meet later this week, senior US officials said Sunday. https://t.co/mxmwLrCs1w

— Bloomberg (@business) May 10, 2026

Trump is considering Project Freedom, the effort to guide commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that he paused after about 36 hours last week, Axios added. He is also weighing whether to “resume the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the U.S. military identified but hasn’t hit yet.”

הנשיא טראמפ נפגש היום (שני) עם צוות הביטחון הלאומי הבכיר שלו כדי לדון בצעדים הבאים מול איראן, כולל אפשרות לחידוש הלחימה, לאחר שהמשא ומתן בין הצדדים הגיע למבוי סתום ביום ראשון, כך אמרו שלושה בכירים אמריקנים https://t.co/Yolz48Dxqj

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) May 11, 2026

Trump told Fox News that he is thinking about reconstituting Project Freedom.

“President Trump just spoke to our John Roberts a moment ago,” the network noted. “He says he is now considering renewing Project Freedom, but he says this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation.”

“He would not divulge at this time what the other pieces would be,” Roberts explained.

As we previously explained, Trump initially claimed he paused Project Freedom to give Iranian negotiators more time to respond to his peace deal. However, NBC News later reported that Trump ended the effort because Saudi officials, surprised by the operation, withdrew access to its bases and airspace.

President Trump told Fox News he is considering reviving Project Freedom, adding that U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz would be only one component of a broader military operation. pic.twitter.com/RgLfVVRomi

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 11, 2026

Iran on Monday revealed what it claimed to be its terms, which made no mention of the uranium. They include the U.S. paying war damages to Iran, recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the end of U.S. sanctions and the release of Iran’s blocked assets by the U.S., according to a post on X by Iran’s official IRIB state broadcaster.

🚨EXCLUSIVE
Details of Iran’s response to the U.S plan, which Trump called unacceptable:

– The necessity for the U.S. to pay war damages to Iran.
– Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
– End of U.S. sanctions.
-Release of Iran’s blocked assets by the U.S.

— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) May 10, 2026

Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described his government’s offer as reasonable.

“Is it excessive to demand an end to maritime piracy against Iranian ships?” he asked rhetorically. “To demand the release of Iranian assets unjustly held in foreign banks for years under American pressure? Our proposal for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, is that excessive? Establishing security and peace across the entire region, including Lebanon, is that excessive?” “Unfortunately, the American side still insists on positions largely built and shaped by the Zionist regime, and continues to hold its one-sided stance and unreasonable demands,”  Baghaei added.

Iran’s FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:

We did not demand any concessions from America; rather, we called for an end to the war and a halt to the piracy at sea against Iranian ships.

Our proposals to America were generous and responsible pic.twitter.com/n17pJzcbmB

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) May 11, 2026

In his comments, the Iranian official was referring to the U.S. firing on and seizing Iranian-linked ships. Baghaei was also reacting to a statement made by Trump on Sunday dismissing Tehran’s latest offer. Trump has repeatedly stated his main objectives are that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The future of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and support for proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah are other sticking points.

“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives,’” Trump announced on his Truth Social platform. “I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”

“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” -President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/MIQDS9Ujjy

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 10, 2026

Given the wide diplomatic gap between the U.S. and Iran and statements by Trump and Netanyahu, how much longer the ceasefire can hold remains an open question.

UPDATE: 7:44 PM EDT –

Reacting to the aforementioned Wall Street Journal story about a clandestine Israeli military base set up in Iraq, that country’s military on Monday said there are currently no foreign military bases or forces operating in the country.

The Iraqi Security Media cell stated on X that “the matter pertains to an incident that occurred on 5/3/2026, during which an Iraqi security force from the Karbala Operations Command, as well as from Najaf, moved and clashed with unidentified, unlicensed detachments supported by aircraft at that time, resulting in the martyrdom of one fighter from the Iraqi security forces, the injury of two others with wounds, and the damaging of a vehicle.”

“We wish to clarify that some are attempting to exploit this incident politically, and there are escalatory statements being made without knowledge of the facts,” the post continued. “All these statements harm the reputation of Iraq and its security leadership, which affirms—and is certain—that there are no unauthorized forces or bases currently on Iraqi territory. There is significant effort being undertaken by our security units through inspection operations across all areas of responsibility. We also affirm that the necessary legal measures will be taken against anyone attempting to spread misleading information or malicious rumors that send negative messages about Iraq’s sovereignty, prestige, and the sacrifices of its security institutions.”

بيان
​••••
​نتابع باهتمام كبير ما يتم تداوله من تصريحات وأخبار بشأن وجود قواعد وقوات غير مصرح بها على الأراضي العراقية، وتحديداً في صحراء كربلاء شرق النخيب والنجف.
​وسبق أن أكدنا أن الأمر يتعلق بحادثة وقعت بتاريخ 5/3/2026، حيث تحركت قوة أمنية عراقية من قيادة عمليات كربلاء…

— خلية الإعلام الأمني🇮🇶 (@SecMedCell) May 11, 2026

UPDATE: 6:36 PM EDT –

Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system “has been nearly 99% effective against missiles from Hamas and Hezbollah militants and ​has knocked out most missiles from Iran,” the chairman of ‌state-owned Iron Dome maker Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd said on Monday, according to Reuters.

Rafael’s Yuval Steinitz told a conference of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs that since the October ​2023 Hamas raid on Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in ​Lebanon have between them fired some 40,000 rockets at Israel.

“Iron ⁠Dome intercepted most of them with success rates that (are) not 100% but close ​to 100%. It’s around 98%, even 99%, so it’s not perfect, but almost,” ​Steinitz said.

Iran, he added, has fired about 1,500 ballistic missiles at Israel in two rounds of fighting since 2024 and “only several dozens” were not intercepted.

He noted that there was ​no shortage of missile interceptors.

The Trump administration is keeping up its economic pressure on Iran, “sanctioning another network selling and shipping Iranian oil for the IRGC,” State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott stated X. “This action marks an additional round of sanctions under Economic Fury, part of the Administration’s maximum pressure campaign.”

The Trump Administration is sanctioning another network selling and shipping Iranian oil for the IRGC. This action marks an additional round of sanctions under Economic Fury, part of the Administration’s maximum pressure campaign.

— Tommy Pigott (@statedeptspox) May 11, 2026

Satellite imagery from @CopernicusEU shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don’t have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 ),” Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas noted on X. “It looks like the longest stretch without loadings since the early days of the war.”

Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don’t have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings since the early days of the war. pic.twitter.com/yJoTzGO79j

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) May 11, 2026

UPDATE: 6:17 PM EDT –

As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, “it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes,” CBS News reported, citing U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter. 

Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan, the network added, saying it was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights.

Among the military hardware was an Iranian Air Force RC-130, a reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering variant of the Lockheed C-130 Hercules tactical transport aircraft.

Scoop via @CBSNews: As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park in its country, potentially shielding them from US airstrikes, sources told @JimLaPorta and me. Days after Trump announced…

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) May 11, 2026

The United Arab Emirates has ​secretly carried out military ‌strikes on Iran, the Wall ​Street Journal reported ​on Monday, citing ⁠people familiar with ​the matter.

The strikes, ​which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, ​included an ​attack on a refinery on ‌Iran’s ⁠Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, WSJ said, ​adding ​that ⁠the attack took place ​in early ​April, according to the publication.

The UAE has ​carried out military ‌strikes on #Iran, according to the Wall ​Street Journal.

The strikes, ​which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, ​included an attack on a refinery on ‌Iran’s ⁠Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.https://t.co/0GJFrUdbsh

— Hamidreza Azizi (@HamidRezaAz) May 11, 2026

UPDATES

The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports remains ongoing, there was another report of ships attacked by drones in the Persian Gulf and the UAE said Iran is continuing to launch attacks against its territory.

U.S. Central Command on Monday claimed it has turned away 62 ships and disabled four attempting to run the blockade in total since the blockade began on April 13.

USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) monitors regional waters as it transits the Arabian Sea during enforcement of the U.S. blockade against Iran. CENTCOM forces have redirected 62 commercial ships and disabled 4 to ensure compliance. pic.twitter.com/Qw5QrTUn5R

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) May 11, 2026

The Ambrey maritime security firm said two ships were struck on Sunday in the Persian Gulf.

“A Panama-flagged deck cargo vessel was impacted by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) while anchored approximately 23.6 NM east-northeast of the port of Doha, Qatar,” according to an Ambrey alert. “The impact resulted in a small fire, which was subsequently extinguished by the vessel’s crew. The vessel reported damage to its conveyor system at approximately 07:15 UTC. One coast guard vessel was observed alongside, rendering assistance. No crew casualties were reported in connection with the incident. This incident occurred approximately 2.8 NM south of an additional vessel that was impacted by a projectile on the morning of 10 May. Ambrey will provide updates as new information becomes available.”

The Ambrey alert did not specify who launched the drones.

On Sunday, UAE said it was attacked by two drones launched by Iran, the latest in a string of strikes dating back to the beginning of the war on Feb. 28 and continuing even after the April 7 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

UAE Air Defenses engaged 2 UAV’s.

The Ministry of Defense announced that on May 10, 2026, UAE air defense systems successfully engaged 2 UAV’s launched from Iran.

Since the onset of these blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defenses have engaged a total of 551 ballistic missiles,… pic.twitter.com/yvruj6d3om

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) May 10, 2026

The issue of Iran will loom large over Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week. As we have previously reported, China relies heavily on Iranian oil and is also suspected of aiding its war efforts.

Trump is expected to call on Beijing to persuade Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the topic is fraught with tensions over recent U.S. actions against China.

Last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on several China-based companies, alleging that they provided “satellite imagery to enable Iran’s military strikes against US forces in the Middle East” and enabled “efforts by Iran’s military to secure weapons, as well as raw materials with applications in Iran’s ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs,” according to the Guardian.

On Monday, China lashed out at those sanctions, describing them as illegal and unilateral, Reuters reported.

“We have always required Chinese enterprises to conduct business in accordance with laws and regulations, and will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises,” spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press briefing.

Iraqi lawmakers are calling for investigation into a clandestine military outpost Israel reportedly set up in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against ​Iran. The Wall Street Journal on Saturday reported that Israel built the installation, ​which housed special forces and served as a ​logistical hub for the Israeli air force, with the ⁠knowledge of the U.S. just before the start of ​the war. It also included ​search-and-rescue teams positioned to assist any downed Israeli pilots, according to the Journal. Israeli forces fired on Iraqi troops after it was discovered, the newspaper added. 

Exclusive: Israel built a secret military post in Iraq to support its campaign against Iran and launched strikes on Iraqi troops who almost found it early in the war https://t.co/f9FISMgdNs

— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) May 9, 2026

Ahmed Majid, a Kurdish politician, “is among several lawmakers who have harshly reacted to the report of the existence of an Israeli base in the Arab country,” Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported on Monday. Majid warned “that Iraq’s sovereignty is being violated by both the United States and the Israeli regime.”

Member of Parliament Abu Turab al-Tamimi called the presence of the Israeli military base and American forces “a dangerous security scandal” and raised questions “about how enemy forces entered deep into Iraqi territory without the knowledge of border guards, the Interior Ministry, and the Joint Operations Command.”

al-Tamimi insisted that “an immediate investigation should be opened and committees should be formed to hold the perpetrators accountable,” IRNA noted.

Video emerged online purporting to show the Israeli outpost, in the Najaf desert, from a distance. The video was reportedly taken by an Iraqi soldier, though we cannot independently verify these claims.

Circulating footage claiming to show the Israeli military outpost in Iraq’s Najaf desert from a distance. The Iraqi soldier who is filming says the lights belong to two U.S. bases. The Iraqi forces appear to be keeping their distance, as reported by Al-Arabiya. https://t.co/p7tGGCyEDO pic.twitter.com/kgAfEtsGgI

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 10, 2026

However, the likelihood of an outpost like this is something we have suggested was all but assumed going back to last year’s 12 Day War.

Hezbollah released video footage on Sunday claiming to show its first-person view (FPV) drones attacking an Israeli Iron Dome air defense battery in northern Israel. The video shows what appears to be two attacks, one on a launcher and one on another launcher with several Israeli troops observed nearby. In each case, the video cuts out before any damage is seen. 

“There was no public comment from the IDF, but unofficially, IDF sources could not dispute the video’s authenticity, and the visuals spoke for themselves,” the Times of Israel noted.

As we were among the first to report, Hezbollah has been ramping up its FPV drone attacks on Israeli forces, creating havoc and leaving Israel scrambling for countermeasures. 

Hezbollah released footage showing one of its drones targeting an iron dome platform positioned in Israel northern border over the weekend. pic.twitter.com/aWBr7NiLkw

— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 10, 2026

The British Royal Navy is deploying its Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragon to the Middle East to take part in a potential European post-ceasefire effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The vital body of water has been closed to nearly all shipping by Iran since the war broke out on Feb. 28.

The deployment comes as the U.K. and France will host the first meeting of the Strait of Hormuz coalition of defense ministers on Tuesday to map out a way forward amid the global economic impact of the Strait closure. It is also taking place as the latest round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remains deadlocked while a shaky ceasefire holds.

“The Type 45 destroyer will forward deploy to ensure the UK can contribute to a future multinational mission to secure the critical waterway and safeguard freedom of navigation, following a sustainable ceasefire,” the Royal Navy said in a statement on Monday. “HMS Dragon can use her Sea Viper missile system to help safeguard UK assets and interests – assisted by Wildcats from 815 Naval Air Squadron equipped with Martlet missiles able to deal with the aerial drone threat.”

The Wildcats are helicopters with drone-busting capabilities that operate off Royal Navy destroyers and frigates.

The idea is that the Dragon would help set up an air defense bubble over the Strait in case a more comprehensive ceasefire breaks down. That would protect ships like the German minesweeper Fulda, which is also heading toward the region, as well as commercial vessels transiting the Strait.

As we previously reported, the Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond used the Sea Viper system, along with guns, to take down more than a half-dozen drones launched by the Houthis in one engagement during the Iranian-backed rebel group’s campaign against Red Sea shipping in 2024. 

You can see an image from that engagement below.

The Portsmouth-based Dragon left the UK in March and has been “helping to safeguard the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean,” according to the Royal Navy. In our earlier reporting, we noted that the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle entered the Red Sea last week.

News about the deployment of French and U.K. vessels to the Middle East sparked a sharp warning from Iran.

“Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of ‘protecting shipping,’ is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on X. “Accordingly, it is emphasized that the presence of French and British warships, or those of any other country potentially accompanying the illegal and internationally unlawful actions of the United States in the Strait of Hormuz, will be met with a decisive and immediate response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, they are strongly advised not to complicate the situation further.”

Gharibabadi did not elaborate on what that response might be.

فرانسه اعلام کرده است ناو هواپیمابر «شارل دوگل» را برای آماده سازی یک ماموریت آینده همکاری‌های مشترک میان پاریس و لندن با هدف تقویت آزادی کشتیرانی در منطقه تنگه هرمز، به سمت دریای سرخ و خلیج عدن فرستاده است. در همین حال، دولت انگلیس هم اعلام کرده که در همراهی با فرانسه، یکی از…

— Gharibabadi (@Gharibabadi) May 10, 2026

Tomorrow U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey MP will co-chair a meeting of over 40 nations, alongside his French counterpart, Minister Catherine Vautrin, for the multinational mission’s first Defense Ministers’ meeting.  

“The plan is strictly defensive and, once conditions allow, will focus on restoring confidence for commercial shipping along the critical trade route,” the Royal Navy noted. “HMS Dragon could play a key role in this mission. The ship’s forward presence will help strengthen confidence among commercial shipping firms, support mine-clearance efforts, and protect vessels once hostilities have ceased.”

Contact the author: howard@twz.com