On March 11, the Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree was struck by two projectiles while crossing the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important waterways located between Iran and Oman. A fire broke out in the engine room, and while 20 sailors were rescued, three remained trapped inside the stricken vessel. Their remains were found weeks later when a specialised rescue team boarded the vessel, which had run aground on the shores of Iran’s Qeshm island.
At about the same time, a “shadow fleet” of tankers continued to navigate the very same waters safely. Operating with fake flags, disabled signals and unspecified destinations, this covert armada survived because it operates outside the traditional rules of maritime trade.
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Iran threatened to block “enemy” ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial chokepoint for a fifth of the world’s oil – in the wake of the United States-Israeli war launched on February 28. Soon, navigation through the strait was disrupted amid fears of attacks.
Following a temporary ceasefire on April 8, the United States imposed a full naval blockade on Iranian ports on April 13. Theoretically, traffic through the strait should have come to a complete halt.
However, tracking data reveals a remarkably different reality.
(Al Jazeera)
An exclusive Al Jazeera open-source investigation tracked 202 voyages made by 185 vessels through the strait between March 1 and April 15, navigating both under fire and across blockade lines.
The numbers behind the shadows
To understand how the strait operated under extreme pressure, Al Jazeera’s Digital Investigative Unit monitored the waterway daily, cross-referencing vessel International Maritime Organization (IMO) numbers with international sanction lists from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United Nations. An IMO number is a unique seven-digit figure assigned to commercial ships.
Of the tracked voyages, 77 (38.5 percent) were directly or indirectly linked to Iran. Notably, 61 of the ships transiting the strait were explicitly listed on international sanctions lists.
(Al Jazeera)
The investigation divided the conflict into three distinct phases to map the fleet’s behaviour:
Phase 1: Open War (March 1 – April 6): 126 ships crossed the strait, peaking at 30 vessels on March 1. Among these, 46 were linked to Iran.
Phase 2: The Truce (April 7 – 13): 49 ships crossed during this fragile pause. More than 40 percent of these vessels were tied to Iran, including the US-sanctioned, Iranian-flagged Roshak, which successfully exited the Gulf.
Phase 3: The US Blockade (April 13 – 15): Despite the explicit naval blockade, 25 ships crossed the strait.
Breaking the blockade
When the US blockade took effect, the shadow fleet adapted immediately.
The Iranian cargo ship “13448” successfully broke the blockade. Because it is a smaller vessel operating in coastal waters, it lacks an official IMO number, allowing it to evade traditional sanction-monitoring tools. The vessel departed Iran’s Al Hamriya port and reached Karachi, Pakistan.
Similarly, the Panama-flagged Manali broke the blockade, crossing on April 14 and penetrating the cordon again on April 17 en route to Mumbai, India.
The investigation uncovered widespread manipulation of Automatic Identification System (AIS) trackers. Vessels such as the US-sanctioned Flora, Genoa and Skywave deliberately disabled or jammed their signals to hide their identities and destinations.
Fake flags and shell companies
To obscure ultimate ownership, the shadow fleet heavily relies on a complex web of “false flags” and shell companies. The investigation identified 16 ships operating under fake flags, including registries from landlocked nations like Botswana and San Marino, as well as others from Madagascar, Guinea, Haiti and Comoros.
(Al Jazeera)(Al Jazeera)
The operational network managing these ships spans the globe. Operating firms were primarily based in Iran (15.7 percent), China (13 percent), Greece (more than 11 percent) and the United Arab Emirates (9.7 percent). Notably, the operators of nearly 19 percent of the observed vessels remain unknown.
The toll of a parallel system
Despite the intense military pressure, energy carriers dominated the traffic, with 68 ships (36.2 percent) transporting crude oil, petroleum products and gas. Ten of these tankers were directly linked to Iran. Non-oil trade also persisted, with 57 bulk and general cargo ships crossing during the open war phase, 41 of which were tied to Tehran.
(Al Jazeera)
Before the war, at least 100 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz daily. Today, a staggering 20,000 sailors are trapped on 2,000 ships across the Gulf – a crisis the International Maritime Organization described as unprecedented since World War II.
A shadow Iranian fleet, meanwhile, has been navigating seamlessly as part of a parallel maritime system born from 47 years of US sanctions on Tehran. Washington slapped sanctions on Tehran following the 1979 Islamic revolution that toppled the pro-Washington ruler Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The two countries have had no diplomatic ties since 1980.
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On the same day that the Chief of Naval Operations answered our question about the future of the F/A-XX sixth-generation naval fighter program, stating a final selection between the offerings from Boeing and Northrop Grumman will be coming in August, the latter of the two firms has released a new teaser video. Previously, we only had one rendering of Northrop’s notional F/A-XX concept. Now we have a more detailed panning video and a new head-on perspective view.
The video clip, posted on Northrop Grumman’s X account this evening, as seen below, states: “We’re bringing tomorrow’s horizon into focus, faster, stronger, and ready when the warfighter needs it.”
What we see in the clip is the same general design we saw in the still image earlier, but much more of it. This includes a head-on shot, showing the aircraft’s stealthy and efficient tailless design and rear-set dorsal inlets, as well as its very broad nose and canopy.
Northrop Grumman capture
The aircraft in the new stylized video clip has some interesting proportions. The size of the landing gear and especially the canopy give it something of a smaller overall appearance than what one would expect from a heavy sixth-generation naval fighter that will be stuffed with fuel and weapons. Of course, this could be due to the somewhat ‘cartoonish’ nature of this new glitzy clip, and how accurate this rendering is to the actual Northrop Grumman F/A-XX is still unknown. At the very least, some of the aircraft’s features (such as its inlets) will have been significantly changed for security issues pertaining to its sensitive design elements.
We also see the wings, which look like they have a bit of camber on the outer sections and possibly a bit of ‘crank’ too. We also see the wings folded in the first part of the clip.
Screenshot
What could be a weapons bay with its doors open is also visible in some of the angles seen in the clip. At first glance, this appeared to be for the jet’s very stout-looking landing gear, but they are curved inward. There are additional doors on the centerline, as well, pointing to two separate bays.
Overall, because of the size of the canopy, it is hard to tell if this is a single-seat or a two-crew aircraft. The canopy is so large in these renders that a side-by-side crew arrangement may even be possible, although that seems unlikely.
Once again, we don’t know how close this computer-generated model is to the real thing, but considering this aircraft will have to carry a sizable weapons load and have something approaching a combat radius of 1,000-miles, while still fitting well within the confines of a supercarrier, it should be firmly in the heavy fighter class.
Maybe Northrop Grumman will share more on its F/A-XX at the annual Sea-Air-Space convention in Washington this week, and we will be ready to report it from the scene if they do.
We have reached out to Northrop Grumman with questions, and we will update this post if we hear back.
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Northrop Grumman CEO Kathy Warden says she is confident in her company’s ability to deliver next-generation carrier-based fighters to the U.S. Navy if it is picked as the winner of the F/A-XX competition. The U.S. Navy’s top officer said yesterday that the goal was to award the F/A-XX contract by August of this year, but also that one unnamed contractor in the running “really can’t deliver in the timeframe we need it.”
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Adm. Daryl Caudle offered his latest comments on F/A-XX yesterday in response to a direct question from TWZ at a roundtable on the sidelines of the Navy League’s Sea-Air-Space 2026 exposition. The Pentagon had tried to put the Navy’s future fighter ambitions on hold last year, arguing that the U.S. industrial base did not have sufficient capacity to support work on two sixth-generation combat jets simultaneously. Boeing won the contract to build what is now called the F-47 for the U.S. Air Force in March 2025. Boeing is the only other company known to be in the running now for F/A-XX. Last year, it was reported that Lockheed Martin had been eliminated from the competition.
Late yesterday, Northrop Grumman also released a new computer-generated F/A-XX promotional video, seen below. You can read our analysis of what is seen therein here.
“We do expect the Department [of the Navy] to make an award selection in the third quarter,” Northrop Grumman’s Warden said during a routine earning call today in response to a direct question about Adm. Caudle’s remarks. “We are confident in our ability to deliver our solution to the Navy.”
She did not explicitly confirm or deny that the CNO had been referring to Northrop Grumman when he mentioned a contractor’s inability to meet the Navy’s schedule needs on F/A-XX.
“We and our suppliers are prepared to bring the workforce and infrastructure that’s needed to execute the program, and our track record on B-21 demonstrates that ability to deliver a complex aircraft on schedule,” Warden added. “Regarding the financials, we’d expect upside to the sales and earnings from our current guidance, if we are entrusted to build the F/A-XX, and it would be a top priority for our company to do so.”
Another F/A-XX rendering Northrop Grumman released last year. Northrop Grumman
It’s also worth remembering that Northrop Grumman withdrew in 2023 from the Air Force competition that would lead to the F-47. The company framed the decision at the time as a voluntary one.
“I’ll just say that, when I noted we have other opportunities we are pursuing, I won’t disclose at this point exactly what those are until a little more information comes out,” Warden, who was also CEO at that time, said when announcing the withdrawal, which was widely seen as a reference to F/A-XX. “You could assume that if we feel we’re well-positioned, and the government is appropriately balancing risk and reward, as I said that that would be a program we would pursue.”
Former top Air Force officials subsequently said that Northrop Grumman’s bid had been on the verge of getting cut.
As mentioned, industrial base capacity questions have swirled around F/A-XX. The Pentagon had tried to effectively shelve the Navy’s next-generation fighter program in its proposed budget for the 2026 Fiscal Year. At the time, a senior U.S. defense official explicitly said that the decision was “due to our belief that the industrial base can only handle going fast on one program at this time, and the presidential priority to go all in on F-47, and get that program right.”
A rendering of the F-47 that the Air Force has previously released. USAF
Congress later intervened to appropriate some $1.69 billion in funding to keep F/A-XX moving ahead in the 2026 Fiscal Year.
“I will tell you, we, Northrop Grumman, are ready to execute F/A-XX,” Tom Jones, President of Northrop Grumman’s Aeronautics Systems sector, had also told TWZ and other outlets in response to a question about industrial base capacity in relation to the program back in December. “We’re looking to try and make sure that the customer community knows that we believe that we’re ready to go and we can execute it.”
Boeing Defense and Space CEO Steve Parker had also pushed back on the assertion that the U.S. industrial base could not support F-47 and F/A-XX at the same time last year. The company’s pitch for the Navy’s program appears to be a navalized adaptation of the F-47.
A rendering of Boeing’s proposed F/A-XX design. Boeing
“The Air Force has got a lot of demand on the system. The Navy’s got a lot of demand,” Adm. Caudle had also said yesterday. “So there was, you know, a check twice, cut once, kind of mentality here on this decision. And now there, I think we’re all on the same page on the reason why the hard look needed to be done. I’m good with it.”
Questions about the overall future of F/A-XX do remain, despite clear support from top Navy leaders like Caudle and Congress. The Navy looks set to request just over $140 million for the program in Fiscal Year 2027. This is a very meager sum, especially for a program of this magnitude. In contrast, the Air Force is seeking $5 billion in additional funding for F-47. Billions of dollars have already been appropriated for the Air Force’s next-generation fighter effort.
The Pentagon and the individual services are rolling out more details about their annual budget proposals today, which could offer more insights into the plans now for F/A-XX in the coming years. Securing the contract to build the Navy’s next-generation fighter is still likely to be an important win for whichever company the service selects in the end.
UPDATE: 4/22/2026 –
The U.S. Navy has issued a statement regarding Adm. Caudle’s comments earlier this week, which is as follows:
“During a question-and-answer session at the Sea-Air-Space Exposition, Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Daryl Caudle was asked about the Navy’s sixth-generation strike fighter program (F/A-XX). Adm. Caudle emphasized that the Navy’s priority is ensuring through due diligence the selected vendor can deliver the required capability on the timeline needed by the fleet while also considering broader industrial base capacity. Any reference to ‘a specific offeror’ was intended as a general anecdotal comment and was not directed at any vendors currently under consideration.”
WASHINGTON — President Trump has turned to naval blockades to pressure the governments of Venezuela, Cuba and now Iran to meet his demands, but his preferred tactic is confronting a very different reality in the Middle East than in the Caribbean.
Unlike Cuba or Venezuela, Iran choked off a crucial trade route for energy shipments, meaning the longer the standoff persists, the more the global economy will suffer. Tehran also poses a greater military threat than those two adversaries in America’s own hemisphere and requires a sustained military presence far from U.S. shores.
Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz gives it power during a shaky ceasefire because the widening economic risks, especially higher U.S. gas prices in an election year, could force the Republican president to end the blockade on Iran’s ports and coastline, experts say.
“It’s really a question now of which country, the U.S. or Iran, has a greater pain tolerance,” said Max Boot, a military historian and senior fellow for national security studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Iran presents ‘major differences’ from other blockades
The effectiveness of Trump’s use of the world’s most powerful navy to block the trade of Iran’s sanctioned oil and other goods is very much up for debate. But it certainly appears to be intensifying as the war grinds on.
The U.S. military on Thursday announced the seizure of another tanker associated with the smuggling of Iranian oil, a day after Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards took control of two vessels in the crucial waterway.
Trump also announced he has ordered the U.S. military to “shoot and kill” Iranian small boats laying sea mines in the strait.
But the situation in Iran is not exactly analogous to what is playing out with the U.S. operations in Venezuela and Cuba.
Some experts say Trump’s success in Venezuela probably had more to do with the U.S. military raid that captured leader Nicolás Maduro than American warships seizing sanctioned oil tankers to enforce U.S. control over the South American country.
A U.S. oil embargo on Cuba, meanwhile, has caused the island’s most severe economic crisis in decades. While U.S. and Cuban officials have met recently on the island for rare talks, the financial strangulation has failed to produce the Trump administration’s stated goal of leadership change.
“I do think that the success of the Maduro mission in Venezuela has probably emboldened the president,” said Todd Huntley, director of Georgetown University’s National Security Law Program.
That does not make the situations in Venezuela and Iran similar — geographically, militarily or politically. “There are some major differences,” said Huntley, a retired Navy captain and judge advocate general.
While the blockade against Iran has delivered a severe blow to its economy, including stopping freighters from importing various supplies, the country has still been able to move some of its sanctioned oil, ship-tracking companies say.
Iran has rejected Trump’s demands to reopen the strait, where 20% of the world’s oil normally flows, and it has been firing on ships again this week. Stalled shipments through the strait have sent gasoline prices skyrocketing far beyond the region and raised the cost of food and a wide array of other products, creating a political problem for Trump before the November’s elections.
“Blockades are usually just one tool of a mechanism used in a conflict,” said Salvatore Mercogliano, a maritime history professor at Campbell University in North Carolina. “They can be important. But it’s only one element. And I don’t think it’s going to be enough to convince the Iranians.”
Effectiveness of U.S. blockade called into question
Adm. Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, claimed last week that “no ship has evaded U.S. forces.” The command overseeing the Middle East said it has directed 31 ships to turn around or return to port as of Wednesday.
Merchant shipping groups are skeptical.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence said “a steady flow of shadow fleet traffic” has passed in and out of the Persian Gulf, including 11 tankers with Iranian cargo that have left the Gulf of Oman outside the strait since April 13.
The maritime intelligence firm Windward said this week that Iranian traffic continues to flow “via deception.”
Iranian ships have several ways to sneak through the blockade, including spoofing their location tracking data or traveling through Pakistani territorial waters, Mercogliano said. He also noted that the sheer volume of shipping traffic the military needs to screen is a challenging task.
Blockades require patience to work
The last time the U.S. mounted a blockade similar to the one focused on Iranian ships was during the Kennedy administration in the early 1960s, against Cuba, Huntley said.
“And it wasn’t even called a blockade,” he said. “We called it quarantine.”
Some naval blockades over the course of history have had an impact, such as Britain’s blockade on Germany during World War I. “But they tend to be very long-term impacts, whereas Trump is looking for short-term, quick results,” according to Boot, the military historian.
He said Trump probably saw the blockade on sanctioned oil tankers tied to Venezuela as playing a large role in the success of leadership changes in that country. But Boot said it had more to do with the U.S. ousting Maduro and the subsequent cooperation from his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who is now the acting president.
“There is no Delcy Rodríguez in Cuba or Iran,” Boot said. “I think his success in Venezuela led him astray, thinking that this was a template that could be replicated elsewhere. He sees it as a huge success at little cost. And, in fact, it turns out to be a unique set of circumstances.”
Finley, Klepper and Toropin write for the Associated Press.
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The U.S. military has said it will start enforcing a blockade of all Iranian Gulf ports and coastal areas today. The move follows on from U.S. President Donald Trump’s earlier promise to close off the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic shipping route that Iran has already effectively shut to the vast majority of maritime traffic in response to U.S.-Israeli strikes. It comes after negotiators from both sides failed to reach a deal to end the war, which began on February 28 but is currently under a two-week truce.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) said it would start the blockade at 10:00 a.m. ET, effectively taking control of all maritime traffic linked to Iran.
“The blockade will be enforced impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all Iranian ports on the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman,” CENTCOM said. “CENTCOM forces will not impede freedom of navigation for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz to and from non-Iranian ports.”
Reutersreports that the U.S. military sent the following message to seafarers providing more details of the blockade:
“Any vessel entering or departing the blockaded area without authorization is subject to interception, diversion, and capture,” the note reportedly said. “The blockade will not impede neutral transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations.”
We have reached out to CENTCOM for more details about how this will be enforced and what assets will be involved. In the meantime, The Wall Street Journalreports that “more than 15 U.S. warships” are currently involved in the operation.
Meanwhile, the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center has issued the following guidelines to ships:
The restrictions encompass the entirety of the Iranian coastline, including ports and energy infrastructure.
Transit passage through the Strait of Hormuz to or from non-Iranian destinations is not reported to be impeded by these measures; however, vessels may encounter military presence, directed communications, or right-of-visit procedures during passage.
Neutral vessels currently within Iranian ports have been granted a limited grace period to depart.
In a lengthy post on his Truth Social platform, Trump said Sunday that the U.S. Navy was going to start “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz.”
US President Donald Trump says that the US is going to start “BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz” as Islamabad talks fail. https://t.co/GCmLstdLKR
“I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” Trump said.
“Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!” he continued.
In a statement today, maritime data and intelligence company Lloyd’s List Intelligence said “all traffic” through the strait had indeed stopped after Trump announced the blockade. It added that two vessels that were leaving the strait turned around after the post.
There has been some movement of vessels through the strait since the ceasefire was announced, but this has been extremely limited, and these ships are still exposed to risk.
Trump:
34 Ships went through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday, which is by far the highest number since this foolish closure began. pic.twitter.com/Wf2chAqHdS
Referencing Iranian mines in these waters, Trump told Fox News Sunday that “it won’t take long to clean out the strait” and that “numerous countries are going to be helping us,” adding that the United Kingdom and other nations were sending minesweepers. At this stage, we are still awaiting confirmation of non-U.S. military participation in the blockade.
Trump:
NATO countries say they want to come, and they want to help with the strait, and it won’t take long to clean it out.
Last week, the Iranian Ports and Maritime Organization published a graphic instructing ships to follow designated entry and exit routes to transit the strait. The organization warned that ships ran the risk of hitting mines outside of these routes. A spokesperson from Lloyd’s List told the BBC: “We know Iran is essentially still in control of the strait, and the assumption is that ship owners will still need to seek permission from the IRGC… and how that’s going to work is still not clear.”
Infographic with a map showing the two alternative maritime routes imposed on ships by Iran, which has warned of sea mines on the usual route through the Strait of Hormuz. Graphic by Valentina BRESCHI and Sylvie HUSSON / AFP VALENTINA BRESCHI; SYLVIE HUSSON
While Trump said the U.S. military would cooperate with other countries to halt maritime traffic through the strait, NATO allies said on Monday they would not take part in the blockade, Reutersreports. Instead, those countries have reportedly indicated they would only consider involvement after the fighting ends.
NATO allies refuse to join Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade
(Reuters) – The United States’ NATO allies said on Monday they would not get involved in President Donald Trump’s plan to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, further ratcheting up tensions within the increasingly fragile…
One country that stands behind the blockade is Israel. Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister, said on Monday that he supports Trump’s decision to impose a naval blockade on Iran and that Tel Aviv is coordinating with Washington on the situation.
“Iran violated the rules [of the peace talks in Pakistan], President Trump decided to impose a naval blockade,” Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting, according to a video statement released by his office.
Netanyahu:
Since Iran violated the rules, Trump decided to impose a blockade, a naval siege, and we of course support this firm position. pic.twitter.com/BhpoAOdDp6
In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that “approaching military vessels to the Strait of Hormuz is considered a violation of the ceasefire.”
An Iranian Armed Forces spokesperson said on Monday that restricting vessels in international waters was illegal and “amounts to piracy.”
Iran would decisively implement a “permanent mechanism” to control the Strait of Hormuz, the spokesman added.
“Security in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman is either for everyone or for NO ONE,” the military said, according to the state broadcaster IRIB. “NO PORT in the region will be safe.”
While unclear at this point if related or not, the Ambrey maritime security firm told TWZ that a merchant vessel had sighted an explosion and a fire in the Fateh Oil Field, approximately 45 nautical miles northwest of the port of Jebel Ali, in the United Arab Emirates.
“Video footage and still imagery showed that the fire extended above the horizon to a significant altitude, Ambrey said. “The vessel did not report hearing any distress calls. At the time of writing, no casualties, damage to merchant vessels, or damage to port infrastructure had been reported,” the security firm added.
Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, took to X with a message to the United States yesterday, posting a map showing gas prices in Washington, DC, and the words: “Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.”
Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 12, 2026
Earlier, Ghalibaf said Trump’s new threats would not affect the Iranian nation: “If you fight, we will fight … We will not bow to any threats.”
Iran’s speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, responds to Trump: If you fight, we fight, and if you come with reason, we deal with reason. We will not succumb to any threat. Let them test our will once again so we can give them an even greater lesson.
Trump claims that the U.S. military has already “obliterated” 158 Iranian ships. “Iran’s navy is laying [sic] at the bottom of the sea,” he wrote on his social media platform Truth Social.
Trump:
Iran’s Navy is laying at the bottom of the sea, completely obliterated – 158 ships.
What we have not hit are their small number of, what they call, “fast attack ships,” because we did not consider them much of a threat.
The Wall Street Journal previously warned that, while the United States and Israel have wiped out much of Iran’s conventional navy, the fleet of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which Tehran relies on to exert control over the Strait of Hormuz, remains largely intact.
The paramilitary IRGC maintains a large fleet of smaller, more agile vessels built to dominate the strategic waterway using missiles, mines, and otherwise to harass commercial shipping.
Farzin Nadimi, an Iran-focused senior fellow with the Washington Institute, a U.S.-based think tank, told the WSJ that more than 60 percent of the IRGC’s fast-attack craft and speedboat fleet remains intact and that it continues to pose a threat.
Reflecting on Iran’s “fast attack ships,” Trump said they are not considered “much of a threat” to the blockade. He threatened to take down these ships using the same “system of kill” used against “drug dealers on boats,” a reference to U.S. military operations in the Caribbean.
“Warning: If any of these ships come anywhere close to our BLOCKADE, they will be immediately ELIMINATED, using the same system of kill that we use against the drug dealers on boats at Sea.” – President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/Gj9nFCfG8T
Since the conflict began on February 28, the strait’s geography has enabled Iran to use it as a strategic lever, restricting access through the narrow passage and driving up oil prices as a result. Tehran has also been demanding large payments from some vessels for safe passage.
By enforcing the blockade, Trump could deprive the Iranian government of a key source of income, though it also runs the risk of pushing global oil and gas prices even higher.
This also ties in with reports that Trump and his advisers have received warnings from officials and corporate leaders about the potential hit on the U.S. economy from a prolonged war.
NEW: Inside the meetings + calls where President Trump and his team were given clear indicators that the economy (possible rise in prices) could take a hit if the war in Iran is prolonged.
Treasury Secretary Bessent and the president discussed various measures the Treasury could…
On the other hand, there remains a question about just how significant an effect on Iran a blockade of this kind will have.
According to Lars Jensen, the chief executive of analysts Vespucci Maritime, in the near term, the blockade of the strait will only halt “a very tiny trickle of vessels.” Meanwhile, any other ships paying tolls to Iran already face sanctions for funding the regime.
While the blockade is calculated to help pressure Iran into making a deal on American terms, Trump has said he is unconcerned about whether Tehran returns to negotiations. “I don’t care if they come back or not,” he said on Sunday. “If they don’t come back, I’m fine.”
China is becoming an increasing factor in the crisis in the Middle East. With each passing day, Beijing’s energy situation becomes more of a problem, with impacts from the strangulation of oil out of the Strait becoming more pronounced. Iran is a key supplier of oil to China.
In a statement yesterday, before the blockade came into force, the Chinese defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun, said that his country was “monitoring the situation in the Middle East. Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of the Strait of Hormuz,” he added. “We have trade and energy agreements with Iran. We will respect and honor them and expect others to not meddle in our affairs. Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, and it is open for us.”
CHINA BACKS IRAN
“We are commited for peace & stability in the world. We are monitoring the situation in the middle east. Our ships are moving in and out of the waters of Strait of Hormuz. We have trade & energy agreements with Iran. We will respect & honour them and expect… pic.twitter.com/7tgWQOo9Ib
CENTCOM declined to respond to our questions about the current rules of engagement or what would happen should a Chinese vessel try to pass through the strait.
According to TheWall Street Journal, citing officials and people familiar with the situation, Trump and his advisers are looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran in addition to the blockade of the strait. The same officials reportedly said that a full-fledged bombing campaign is considered less likely, “given the prospect of further destabilizing the region and the president’s aversion to prolonged military conflicts.”
BREAKING: President Trump is looking at resuming limited military strikes in Iran, according to officials and people familiar with the situation. -WSJ
President Trump’s remarks on Iran during an impromptu White House press appearance on Monday appeared to dampen expectations for a swift diplomatic resolution to the conflict.
“They will never have a nuclear weapon,” Trump told reporters shortly after accepting a DoorDash delivery of McDonald’s, staged to highlight his tax policy eliminating levies on tips.
“If they don’t agree, there’s no deal. There’ll never be a deal. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon, and we’re going to get the dust back. We’ll get it back, either we’ll get it back from them, or we’ll take it.”
.@POTUS: “Iran will not have a nuclear weapon… If they don’t agree, there’s no deal. There’ll never be a deal. Iran will not have a nuclear weapon and we’re going to get the dust back — either we’ll get it back from them or we’ll take it.” pic.twitter.com/SNani9M8hT
A U.S. official said “there is continued engagement between the U.S. and Iran and forward motion on trying to get an agreement,” multiple outlets reported.
CNN’s coverage of the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict included a direct quote from the official, while a Reutersalert similarly referred to continued engagement, also attributing the information to an official.
UPDATE: 3:23 PM EDT –
AEI estimates Epic Fury costs between $25 and $35 billion.
As of the April 8th ceasefire, AEI’s Elaine McCusker estimates the cost of the war in Iran to be between $25 and $35 billion.
The United States asked that Iran agree to a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment during talks in Pakistan this weekend, Axiosreported Monday.
Citing a source familiar with the situation as well as a U.S. official, Axios said that Iran responded with a proposed “single-digit” timeframe.
☢️🇺🇸🇮🇷The U.S. asked Iran to accept a 20-year moratorium on uranium enrichment during negotiations in Islamabad over the weekend, according the a U.S. official and a source with knowledge. My story on @axioshttps://t.co/rZZfAy72bc
Bloombergreports that it is unclear where Trump got the figure of 34 ships passing through the strait yesterday, saying that it has a smaller figure.
Bloomberg: “It was not clear where the president got that exact figure, as it appears to be higher than the number tracked by Bloomberg” pic.twitter.com/RWp0KkjJEi
Trump says Iran wants to make a deal and that he will not come to any agreement that allows Tehran to have a nuclear weapon.
He said that Iran had “called this morning” and that “they’d like to work a deal.”
The aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush has reportedly passed through the Strait of Gibraltar and is expected to arrive in the eastern Mediterranean before the end of the week. The carrier will take the place of the USS Gerald R. Ford, which suffered a fire while underway in the Middle East, and is now being repaired at Souda Bay in Crete. You can keep up to date on these movements using TWZ’sweekly carrier tracker monitoring America’s flattop fleet, including deployed Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups, using publicly available open-source information.
Carrier Tracker As of April 12, 2026
Trump orders U.S. Navy to blockade Strait of Hormuz as a third carrier strike group steams towards the CENTCOM area of responsibility.https://t.co/fxxOfsHfkE
U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Monday reaffirmed that Britain will not take part in any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Speaking to the BBC, Starmer said the government’s priority is ensuring the strait is fully reopened.
“All the time the strait is shut or not free for navigation in the way it should be, that means oil and gas is not getting to market, that means the price is going up, and everybody listening to this is facing higher energy bills,” Starmer said. “I don’t want that to happen. I want their energy bills to be stabilized and lower.”
The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz is deeply damaging. Getting global shipping moving is vital to ease cost of living pressures.
The UK has convened more than 40 nations who share our aim to restore freedom of navigation.
After the Islamabad talks, it is clear that the Iranian nuclear issue remains the top sticking point. In a cabinet meeting today, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he had spoken to U.S. Vice President JD Vance about the negotiations. “The explosion came from the American side, which could not tolerate Iran’s blatant violation of the agreement to enter the negotiations,” Netanyahu said. “The agreement was that they would cease fire, and the Iranians would immediately open the gates. They did not do that. The Americans could not accept that. He also made it clear to me that the main issue on the agenda for President Trump and the United States is the removal of all enriched material, and ensuring that there is no more enrichment in the coming years, and that could be in decades, no enrichment within Iran.”
Netanyahu at a cabinet meeting: “I spoke yesterday with Vice President J.D. Vance. He called me from his plane on his way back from Islamabad. He reported to me in detail, as this administration does every day, about the development of the negotiations. In this case, the…
Again, on the nuclear issue, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday that Russia is ready to take in Iran’s highly enriched uranium as part of a future peace deal with the United States.
Russia is ready to take in Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a future peace deal with the United States, the Kremlin says
Israel’s military announced on Monday that it has started what it described as targeted ground operations in the Bint Jbeil area of southern Lebanon.
Although Iran and Pakistan claim that the temporary ceasefire brokered by Pakistan last week also covers Lebanon, Netanyahu stated that there is “no ceasefire in Lebanon” and that Israel will continue to strike Hezbollah “with full force.”
The Israeli military has nearly completed capturing the Hezbollah stronghold of Bint Jbeil in southern Lebanon, killing more than 100 members of the terror group in the area in the process, according to the IDF.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) April 13, 2026
David Ignatius, an associate editor and columnist for The Washington Post, has provided his prediction on what might happen after the failure to reach a deal in Islamabad over the weekend. Ignatius writes:
“After talking Sunday with people close to the negotiations, my sense is that the Islamabad impasse won’t necessarily mean a return to war. The blockade is a pressure tactic, to be sure, but not primarily a military one. Trump has no appetite for further armed conflict. He knows that the upsides are limited and the ‘tail risk,’ as financial traders like to say, is large. His aim instead is to put a severely battered Iran into an economic vise to see if its leaders will set a different course in a big, comprehensive deal.”
David Ignatius: “After talking Sunday with people close to the negotiations, my sense is that the Islamabad impasse won’t necessarily mean a return to war. The blockade is a pressure tactic, to be sure, but not primarily a military one. Trump has no appetite for further armed…
Meanwhile, citing a regional source and a U.S. official, Axiosreports that Pakistani, Egyptian, and Turkish mediators will continue talks with the United States and Iran in the coming days, “in an effort to bridge the remaining gaps and reach a deal to end the war.”
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also indicated on Monday that efforts are still being made to resolve the conflict.
ISLAMABAD, April 13 (Reuters) – Full efforts are still being made to resolve the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Monday, a day after talks between the two sides, held in Islamabad, ended without agreement.
Trump launched a sharp attack on Pope Leo XIV over the weekend, calling him “weak on crime and terrible for foreign policy” and accusing him of harming the Catholic Church. “Leo should get his act together as Pope,” he wrote on Truth Social. The criticism came after Leo condemned the “delusion of omnipotence” as driving the U.S.-Israel war in Iran and urged political leaders to halt the fighting and pursue negotiations.
“Pope Leo is WEAK on Crime,” begins a Sunday evening message from the President.
What does Donald Trump’s naval blockade of Iranian ports look like and can it achieve what the US president wants? It is hard to know when the planning appears to have been done on the fly, according to war studies lecturer Samir Puri.
United States President Donald Trump has called for a naval coalition to deploy warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of world oil shipments transit, as oil markets reel from supply disruptions caused by the US-Israeli war with Iran.
What is essentially the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran in response to the attacks by the US and Israel has sent oil prices soaring to more than $100 per barrel.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has promised to keep the maritime artery closed while another top official in Tehran warned that oil prices could shoot up beyond $200 per barrel.
Trump said he hoped a naval coalition could secure the vital waterway, which connects the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Iran has struck more than a dozen ships trying to sail through the narrow waterway since the hostilities started two weeks ago.
But will Trump’s solution work?
A tanker sits at anchor in Port Sultan Qaboos in Muscat, Oman, as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have plummeted [File: Benoit Tessier/Reuters]
What has Trump said?
The US president has been facing domestic pressure over starting the war alongside Israel with no endgame or off-ramps in sight.
“On the strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN,” US Democratic Senator Chris Murphy wrote in a post on X. “I can’t go into more detail about how Iran gums up the Strait, but suffice it [to] say, right now, they don’t know how to get it safely back open.”
After threatening to bomb Iran more, Trump called on China, France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom to send warships to secure the strait.
Trump claimed “100% of Iran’s military capability” had already been destroyed but added that Tehran could still “send a drone or two, drop a mine, or deliver a close-range missile somewhere along, or in, this waterway”.
“Hopefully China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK, and others, that are affected by this artificial constraint will send ships to the area so that the Hormuz Strait will no longer be a threat by a nation that has been totally decapitated,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.
“In the meantime, the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian Boats and Ships out of the water. One way or the other, we will soon get the Hormuz Strait OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!”
Not long after, Trump returned to the keyboard, extending the invitation to all “the Countries of the World that receive Oil through the Hormuz Strait” to send warships, adding that the US would provide “a lot” of support to those who participated.
Israeli soldiers walk by a billboard commissioned by the evangelical Christian group Friends of Zion during the US-Israel war on Iran in Tel Aviv, Israel [File: Nir Elias/Reuters]
What has Iran said?
Alireza Tangsiri, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, said in a statement that claims by the US about destroying Iran’s navy or providing safe escort for oil tankers were false.
“The Strait of Hormuz has not been militarily blocked and is merely under control,” he said in a statement.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later doubled down on this, saying the strait remained open to international shipping except for vessels belonging to the US and its allies.
“The Strait of Hormuz is open. It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to those who are attacking us and their allies. Others are free to pass,” Araghchi said.
Khamenei – son of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the US-Israeli strikes – suggested in his first statement since taking power that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to provide leverage for Iran during the conflict.
F-18 combat aircraft are parked on the deck of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Gulf of Oman near the Strait of Hormuz during a 2019 deployment [File: Ahmed Jadallah/Reuters]
What are the challenges in the Strait of Hormuz?
The strait, which is just 21 nautical miles (39km) wide at its narrowest point, is the only maritime passage into the Arabian Gulf (known as the Persian Gulf in Iran). Shipping lanes in the waterway are even narrower and more vulnerable to attacks.
It separates Iran on one side from Oman and the United Arab Emirates on the other.
In brief, there is no way in or out by sea when the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
Alexandru Hudisteanu, a maritime security expert who served 13 years in the Romanian navy, told Al Jazeera that in the type of coalition that Trump is hinting at, “interoperability is the biggest hurdle.”
“That’s the ability of cruises to work together or with different units and different doctrine when basic communication would be an issue,” he said.
Then, there is the geography of the Strait of Hormuz: “a very unforgiving environment to sail with this type of wartime threats”, Hudisteanu said. “Especially difficult under missile threats and these asymmetric potential mines or unmanned systems that could damage or destroy ships.”
Providing escorts to ships would be a costly option, and it would pose risks to participating foreign warships from possible Iranian attacks, which would likely further drag more countries into the ongoing war.
From Iran’s point of view, “the fact that the shoreline is so close and the actual maritime passage is highly congested and confined is an advantage by default,” Hudisteanu added. Geographically, Iran keeps it as a gauntlet, with no way out for the ships unless Tehran allows it.
Another major challenge for any naval coalition trying to secure the passage would be the timeline of any operation. ”The security of the strait could be achieved. It’s just a matter of how much time you need and how many assets you need,” the analyst said. Rushing through it “could have negative implications for the security of the mission and the region”.
Smoke rises from the Thai bulk carrier Mayuree Naree near the Strait of Hormuz after an attack on March 11, 2026 [Handout/Royal Thai Navy via AFP]
How have countries responded?
No country has so far publicly agreed to Trump’s call to send warships to secure the Strait of Hormuz.
London said it is “intensively looking” at what it can do to help reopen the maritime passage. British Energy Secretary Ed Miliband said: “We are intensively looking with our allies at what can be done because it’s so important that we get the strait reopened.”
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials said Beijing is calling for hostilities to stop and “all parties have the responsibility to ensure stable and unimpeded energy supply.”
Japan said the threshold is “extremely high” to send its warships on such a mission. “Legally speaking, we do not rule out the possibility, but given the current situation in which this conflict is ongoing, I believe this is something that must be considered with great caution,” said Takayuki Kobayashi, policy chief of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
France also confirmed that it will not send ships. The Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Saturday: “Posture has not changed: defensive it is,” in reference to President Emanuel Macron’s assertion that France will not join the war against Iran.
South Korea, which imports 70 percent of its oil from the Gulf, said it was “closely monitoring” Trump’s statements and “comprehensively considering and exploring various measures … to ensure the safety of energy transport routes”.
(Al Jazeera)
Are countries negotiating with Iran?
Some countries have been negotiating with Iran to secure passage for their petroleum shipments.
Two Indian-flagged tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) have sailed through the Strait of Hormuz. New Delhi depends on this passage for 80 percent of its LPG imports.
The war on Iran has caused a critical shortage of cooking gas for India’s 333 million households. New Delhi has long had ties with Iran, but the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not condemned the killing of Ali Khamenei. It has condemned Iran’s retaliatory attacks on Gulf countries, where millions of Indian citizens work and send $51bn in remittances home every year.
Iran’s ambassador to India, Mohammad Fathali, said Tehran had allowed some Indian vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz in a rare exception to the blockade but did not confirm the number of vessels.
A Turkish-owned vessel was similarly granted permission last week after Ankara negotiated passage directly with Tehran. Fourteen more Turkish vessels are awaiting clearance.
France and Italy also reportedly opened talks with Iranian officials to negotiate a deal to allow their vessels through the strait, but there has been no official confirmation yet.
“Iran is affecting maritime supply,” Hudisteanu said. “It’s affecting the maritime security of the region and the entire ecosystem and bringing the entire world to the table as the global price for oil and gas increases.”
