Myanmar

Yangon, Myanmar – Voters in parts of Myanmar are heading to the polls on Sunday for an election that critics view as a bid by the country’s generals to legitimise military rule, nearly five years after they overthrew the government of Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi.

The multi-phased election is unfolding amid a raging civil war, with ethnic armed groups and opposition militias fighting the military for control of vast stretches of territory, stretching from the borderlands with Bangladesh and India in the west, across the central plains, to the frontiers with China and Thailand in the north and east.

In central Sagaing, voting will take place in only a third of the region’s townships on Sunday. Another third will be covered during a second and third phase in January, while voting has been cancelled altogether in the remainder.

Fighting, including air raids and arson, has intensified in several areas.

“The military is deploying troops and burning villages under the guise of ‘territorial dominance’,” said Esther J, a journalist based there. “People here are saying this is being done for the election.”

In most of the region, “we haven’t seen a single activity related to the election,” she said. “No one is campaigning, organising or telling people to vote.”

Across Myanmar, voting has been cancelled in 56 of the country’s 330 townships, with more cancellations expected. The conflict, triggered by the 2021 coup, has killed an estimated 90,000 people and displaced more than 3.5 million, according to monitoring groups and the United Nations. It has left nearly half of the country’s population of 55 million in need of humanitarian assistance.

“People [in Sagaing] say they have no interest in the election,” said Esther J. “They do not want the military. They want the revolutionary forces to win.”

Shifting battlefield

For much of last year, the Myanmar military appeared to be losing ground.

A coordinated offensive launched in late 2023 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance – a coalition of ethnic armed groups and opposition militias – seized vast areas, nearly pushing the military out of western Rakhine state and capturing a major regional military headquarters in the northeastern city of Lashio, about 120km (75 miles) from the Chinese border. Armed with commercial drones modified to carry bombs, the rebels were soon threatening the country’s second-largest city of Mandalay.

The operation – dubbed 1027 – marked the most significant threat to the military since the 2021 coup.

But the momentum has stalled this year, largely because of China’s intervention.

In April, Beijing brokered a deal in which the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army agreed to surrender the city of Lashio, without a single shot being fired. The military subsequently reclaimed key towns in north and central Myanmar, including Nawnghkio, Thabeikkyin, Kyaukme and Hsipaw. In late October, China brokered another agreement for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army to withdraw from the gold mining towns of Mogok and Momeik.

“The Myanmar military is definitely resurgent,” said Morgan Michaels, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). “If this current trend continues, the Myanmar military could be back in a relatively dominant position in a year or so, maybe two.”

The military turned the tide by launching a conscription drive, expanding its drone fleet and putting more combat credible soldiers in charge. Since announcing mandatory military service in February 2024, it has recruited between 70,000 to 80,000 people, researchers say.

“The conscription drive has been unexpectedly effective,” said Min Zaw Oo, executive director at the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security. “Economic hardship and political polarisation pushed many young men into the ranks,” he said, with many of the recruits technically adept and serving as snipers and drone operators. “The military’s drone units now outmatch those of the opposition,” he added.

According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a monitoring group, air and drone attacks by the military have increased by roughly 30 percent this year. The group recorded 2,602 air attacks that it said killed 1,971 people – the highest toll since the coup. It said Myanmar now ranks third in the world for drone operations, behind only Ukraine and Russia.

China, meanwhile, has applied pressure beyond brokering ceasefires.

According to analysts, Beijing pressed one of the strongest armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army, to cut off weapons supplies to other rebels, resulting in ammunition shortages across the country. The opposition forces have also suffered from disunity. “They are as fragmented as ever,” said Michaels of the IISS. “Relationships between these groups are deteriorating, and the ethnic armed organisations are abandoning the People’s Defence Forces,” he said, referring to the opposition militias that mobilised after the coup.

China’s calculations

China, observers say, acted for fear of a state collapse in Myanmar.

“The situation in Myanmar is a ‘hot mess’, and it’s on China’s border,” said Einar Tangen, a Beijing-based analyst at the Centre for International Governance Innovation. Beijing, he said, wants to see peace in Myanmar to protect key trade routes, including the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor that, when completed, will link its landlocked Yunnan province to the Indian Ocean and a deep seaport there.

Tangen said Beijing harbours no love for the military, but sees few alternatives.

Indeed, after the coup, Beijing refrained from normalising relations with Myanmar or recognising coup leader Min Aung Hlaing. But in a sign of shifting policy, Chinese President Xi Jinping met Min Aung Hlaing twice this year. During talks in China’s Tianjin in August, Xi told Min Aung Hlaing that Beijing supports Myanmar in safeguarding its sovereignty, as well as “in unifying all domestic political forces” and “restoring stability and development”.

Tangen said China sees the election as a path to more predictable governance. Russia and India, too, have backed the process, though the UN and several Western nations have called it a “sham”. But Tangen noted that while Western nations denounce the military, they have done little to engage with the rebels. The United States has dealt further blows by cutting off foreign aid and ending visa protections for Myanmar citizens.

“The West is paying lip service to the humanitarian crisis. China’s trying to do something but doesn’t know how to solve it,” Tangen said.

Limited gains, lasting war

The military’s territorial gains, meanwhile, remain modest.

In northern Shan state, Myanmar’s largest, the military has recaptured only 11.3 percent of the territory it had lost, according to the Institute for Strategy and Policy – Myanmar, a think tank. But it is western Rakhine State that remains the “larger and more intense theatre of war”, said Khin Zaw Win, a Yangon-based analyst.

There, the Arakan Army is pushing beyond the borders of the state, overrunning multiple bases, and pushing east in a move that threatens the military’s defence industries. In northern Kachin state, the battle for Bhamo, a gateway to the north, is approaching its first anniversary, while in the southeast, armed groups have taken a “number of important positions along the border with Thailand”, he said.

So the military’s recent gains in other parts were “not that significant”, he added.

ACLED, the war monitor, also described the military’s successes as “limited in the context of the overall conflict”. In a briefing this month, Su Mon, a senior analyst at ACLED, wrote that the military remains in a “weakened position compared to before the 2021 coup and Operation 1027 and is unable to assert effective control over the areas it has recently retaken”.

Still, the gains give the military “more confidence to proceed with the elections”, said Khin Zaw Win.

The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, which has fielded the most candidates, is expected to form the next government. Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy has been dissolved, and she remains held incommunicado, while other smaller opposition parties have been barred from participating.

Khin Zaw Win said he does not expect the election to “affect the war to any appreciable extent” and that the military might even be “deluded to go for a complete military victory”.

But on the other hand, China could help de-escalate, he said.

“China’s mediation efforts are geared toward a negotiated settlement,” he noted. “It expects a ‘payoff’ and does not want a protracted war that will harm its larger interests.”

Zaheena Rasheed wrote and reported from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and Cape Diamond reported from Yangon, Myanmar.

Noble laureate’s son says military must ‘prove’ Suu Kyi is healthy after her years in detention and unseen following military coup.

Military-ruled Myanmar has said the country’s jailed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi is “in good health” amid concerns about the health of the pro-democracy leader who was removed from power by a coup in 2021.

“Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is in good health,” a statement posted on the military-run Myanmar Digital News said on Tuesday, using an honorific for the country’s leader.

The military, which offered no evidence or details about Aung San Suu Kyi’s condition, issued the statement one day after her son, Kim Aris, told the Reuters news agency that he had received little information about the 80-year-old’s condition and fears she could die without him knowing.

“The military claims she is in good health, yet they refuse to provide any independent proof, no recent photograph, no medical verification, and no access by family, doctors, or international observers,” Aris told Reuters on Wednesday in response to the military’s statement.

“If she is truly well, they can prove it,” he said.

A Myanmar regime spokesman did not respond to calls seeking comment.

Interviewed in October, Aris told the Asia Times news organisation that he believed his mother, who has not been seen for at least two years, was being held in solitary confinement in a prison in the capital Naypyidaw and “not even the other prisoners have seen her”.

Aung San Suu Kyi was detained after the 2021 military coup that toppled her elected civilian government from power, and she is now serving a 27-year prison sentence on charges that are widely believed to be trumped-up, including incitement, corruption and election fraud – all of which she denies.

Aris also said the military was “fond of spreading rumours” about his mother’s health in detention.

“They have said she is being held under house arrest, but there is no evidence of that at all. At other times, they said she has had a stroke and even that she has died,” he told Asia Times.

“It’s obviously hard to deal with all this false information,” he said.

A civil war has gripped Myanmar since the 2021 coup, but the military plans to hold elections at the end of this month that analysts and several foreign governments have dismissed as a sham designed to legitimise military rule.

While fighting rages across the country, Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD), Myanmar’s largest political party, remains dissolved, and several anti-military political groups are boycotting the polls.

On Wednesday, the military said it was pursuing prosecutions of more than 200 people under a law forbidding “disruption” of the election, legislation that rights monitors have said aims to crush dissent.

“A total of 229 people” are being pursued for prosecution “for attempting to sabotage election processes”, the military regime’s Home Affairs Minister Tun Tun Naung said, according to state media.

Convictions under election laws in Myanmar’s courts can result in up to a decade in prison, and authorities have made arrests for as little as posting a “heart” emoji on Facebook posts criticising the polls.

The legislation also outlaws damaging ballot papers and polling stations – as well as intimidating or harming voters, candidates and election workers, with a maximum punishment of 20 years in prison.

Four years after seizing power in a coup, Myanmar’s military junta is adapting to survive a grinding civil war that once appeared to be slipping beyond its control. In October, rebel fighters in central Myanmar described facing a level of intensity they had not seen before: sustained artillery fire, coordinated drone strikes, and repeated infantry assaults that came in relentless waves. After days of fighting near the village of Pazun Myaung, resistance forces were forced to withdraw, marking a rare tactical success for a military that had suffered major setbacks since 2023.

This shift follows Operation 1027, a coordinated rebel offensive that overran around 150 military outposts and handed resistance groups control of large swathes of borderland territory. Shaken by those defeats, the junta began reshaping its strategy. According to rebel fighters and security analysts interviewed by Reuters, the military has leaned on three pillars to stabilise its position: mass conscription, expanded use of drones and air power, and growing diplomatic and coercive support from China.

How the Junta Is Fighting Back

On the ground, resistance fighters report that the military is deploying “human-wave” tactics, sending repeated infantry units forward even as casualties mount. Rebels say some soldiers appear to be coerced into advancing, a stark contrast to earlier phases of the war when troops often retreated quickly after losses. These assaults are now closely integrated with artillery and drone strikes, creating pressure that smaller, lightly equipped resistance units struggle to withstand over time.

At the same time, the junta has rebuilt manpower through mandatory conscription introduced in February 2024. Despite widespread public fear and evasion, tens of thousands of recruits have reportedly entered the armed forces, stabilising a military that had shrunk dramatically since the coup. The command structure has also been reshuffled, with more experienced officers replacing those promoted through patronage, addressing one of the army’s long-standing weaknesses.

Air power has become more lethal as well. While conventional airstrikes remain central, they are now increasingly guided by reconnaissance drones, improving accuracy. Analysts say the military operates a diverse fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles sourced from China, Russia and Iran, giving it a technological edge over resistance groups that lack jamming equipment or air-defence systems. Lower-level commanders are also reportedly being granted faster access to air support, tightening coordination between ground assaults and aerial attacks.

China’s Quiet but Crucial Role

Beyond the battlefield, China has emerged as a decisive external factor in the junta’s partial resurgence. While Beijing maintains ties with certain ethnic armed groups, it continues to see Myanmar’s generals as the most reliable guarantors of stability along its border. Chinese officials have brokered ceasefires that have directly benefited the junta, including arrangements that returned strategically important towns to military control.

Pressure from Beijing has also constrained resistance groups’ access to weapons and financing. International researchers say China has leaned on allied militias to restrict arms flows and imposed financial and border measures to enforce compliance. In some areas, this has effectively frozen resistance operations, forcing groups into ceasefires due to shortages of ammunition and funds. For fighters on the ground, this external squeeze has compounded the military’s renewed offensive momentum.

Why It Matters

The junta’s evolving tactics do not signal outright victory, but they do mark a dangerous shift in a conflict that had increasingly favoured resistance forces. Myanmar’s frontlines remain fragmented, with no single actor dominating nationwide, yet the military’s ability to retake territory in parts of the country suggests the war is entering a new, more brutal phase. Civilians are likely to bear the cost, as intensified airstrikes, mass infantry assaults and prolonged clashes deepen humanitarian suffering and displacement.

This military push also coincides with a planned general election that international observers and rights groups have already dismissed as neither free nor fair. By reclaiming territory and projecting strength, the junta appears intent on manufacturing a sense of control and legitimacy, even as key opposition figures remain jailed and major political forces boycott the vote.

What Comes Next

Analysts expect fighting to intensify rather than subside. With conscription feeding new troops into the ranks, drones sharpening air power, and China discouraging resistance advances near its interests, the military is likely to continue probing for opportunities to retake ground. Resistance forces, meanwhile, face internal disparities in strength and growing external pressure, making coordinated nationwide offensives harder to sustain.

Over the next few years, Myanmar is likely to see a protracted stalemate punctuated by brutal offensives rather than a decisive resolution. The junta’s comeback is limited and uneven, but it is enough to prolong the conflict and raise the stakes for all sides involved.

Analysis

Myanmar’s war is no longer defined solely by a collapsing army versus a rising resistance. Instead, it is evolving into a grim contest of endurance. The junta’s use of human-wave assaults reflects both renewed confidence and underlying fragility: manpower is being substituted for legitimacy, and coercion for morale. Drones and foreign backing provide tactical advantages, but they do not resolve the political roots of the conflict. China’s role underscores how regional power politics can shape internal wars, often prioritising stability over justice. In this context, the junta’s battlefield adaptation may extend its survival, but it also deepens a cycle of violence that makes a negotiated political settlement ever more elusive.

With information from Reuters.

From the cleanup efforts in Sri Lanka in the wake of Cyclone Ditwah’s destruction to the devastating Myanmar military air attack on a hospital that killed 30 people, here is a look at the week in photos.