Military

The attack on alleged drug smugglers brings death toll of US military campaign against suspected drug boats to about 150.

The United States military has announced another strike in the Caribbean Sea that it said targeted drug smugglers, killing three people.

The Southern Command of the US military (SOUTHCOM) shared footage of the attack on Monday, showing a small boat exploding and going up in flames after the strike.

“Intelligence confirmed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean and was engaged in narco-trafficking operations,” SOUTHCOM said in a statement.

“Three male narco-terrorists were killed during this action. No US military forces were harmed.”

The attack brings the death toll from US boat strikes on boats allegedly smuggling drugs, which began last year, to about 150.

Rights advocates have said the US military campaign targeting alleged drug smugglers amounts to extrajudicial killings and risks violating international and domestic laws.

The administration of US President Donald Trump has argued that all the targeted boats were carrying drugs, but it has offered little evidence other than grainy footage of the strikes.

United Nations experts warned last year that the attacks “appear to be unlawful killings carried out by order of a Government, without judicial or legal process allowing due process of law”.

“Unprovoked attacks and killings on international waters also violate international maritime laws,” the experts added.

“We have condemned and raised concerns about these attacks at sea to the United States Government.”

The strikes started in September last year, as the US was building up its military assets in the Caribbean amid tensions with Venezuela. Since then, the attacks have expanded to also targeting boats in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

A separate US strike on an alleged drug-smuggling boat on Friday also killed three people.

The campaign has continued even after US forces abducted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro early in 2026.

Trump and other US officials have argued, without providing evidence, that each bombing saves thousands of lives from overdose deaths. But it is not clear whether the deadly campaign has significantly affected the drug trade in the region.

The latest attack comes as Mexican authorities push to curb violence by drug cartels after the killing of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel leader, Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, also known as “El Mencho”.

Trump has been pushing to present himself as launching a literal war on drugs across the Western Hemisphere.

“Mexico must step up their effort on Cartels and Drugs!” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Monday.

The US has often accused its critics in Latin America, including Colombian President Gustavo Petro, of ties to the drug trade.

Meanwhile, in December, Trump pardoned former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, who was serving a 45-year prison sentence in US jails after being convicted of drug trafficking.

The aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln, six frigates, three light warships, and approximately thirty fighter jets and support aircraft have entered the Middle East by order of Donald Trump who, by repeatedly touting the slogan “I have ended six/seven/eight wars,” has considered (and continues to consider) himself deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize. What objective do all these tensions that the U.S. administration has generated in the region actually pursue? The weakening of Iran, or the overthrow of the incumbent government? Whatever his and his administration’s aim may be, it appears that—within the cost–benefit calculations of his trader’s mindset—he has yet to arrive at a definitive conclusion as to what kind of blow, and at what scale, could deliver the desired outcome. His recent military posturing around Iran and his increasingly threatening rhetoric against the Islamic Republic have placed him in a no-win situation whose end few can predict.

Why a no-win situation for Trump?

First Strike Doubt: Trump and the constellation of officials currently in the White House—who, notably, are far from unified or aligned on how to approach Iran—have reached no certainty regarding the effectiveness of a first strike against Iran or the likelihood of achieving their desired results. It is evident to all that the Islamic Republic of Iran is neither Venezuela, nor Libya, nor Syria, nor Afghanistan, nor Iraq, nor anything akin to the historical cases in which the United States has intervened militarily in the name of democracy verbally and in pursuit of its own interests operationally. This very reality has, thus far, prevented Trump from issuing the order to “open fire” on Iran up to now.

On the other side, there is no sign of the flexibility or concession sought by the United States in the behavior or rhetoric of Iranian officials—a fact acknowledged by American officials themselves. This indicates that pressure, intimidation, and threats have thus far yielded no results. The reason is clear: the Islamic Republic views any potential confrontation as an existential war and is unwilling to grant any concessions. Trump, however—who seeks to manufacture achievements out of even the smallest events and whose penchant for exaggeration is among his defining traits—perceives such circumstances as detrimental to his personal prestige and standing.

Iran’s Resilience: The experience of the Israeli attack and the hybrid war launched against Iran in June 2025, with direct assistance from the United States and indirect support from so many others, demonstrated that the instability they sought within the governing structure of the Islamic Republic and even the internal social fragmentation and rifts that had been cultivated for years through various media tools did not materialize. Despite the blows inflicted on Iran, none of the long-term strategic objectives of the United States and Israel were achieved. Likewise, the unrest and riots of January 8 and 9, despite the violence and damage they caused to the public and the state, were ultimately brought under control and culminated in a multi-million-person rally on January 12 condemning the unrest and supporting the central government of the Islamic Republic.

High costs and Persian Gulf Worries: Operationalizing a military threat would impose heavy costs on the United States and its allies. The Islamic Republic has explicitly declared that any military action against its territory, at any scale, would be regarded as all-out war, and that, consequently, the entire region—as well as U.S. interests wherever they may be—would fall within range of Iran’s retaliatory strikes. This serious warning has also prompted Persian Gulf states to mobilize their capacities to dissuade Trump from attacking Iran. The strikes on U.S. bases at Ayn al-Asad and Al-Udeid entrenched the perception that the Islamic Republic does not shy away from responding to foreign aggression, even if large segments of the world regard the attacking state as a “superpower.”

Global Energy Risks: The ignition of war in the Persian Gulf would amount to a grave threat to global energy supply routes. Roughly 30 percent of the world’s crude oil and 20 percent of liquefied natural gas are supplied by Persian Gulf countries, and 20–25 percent of global crude oil transits the Strait of Hormuz. Any aggressive action by the United States would jeopardize the security of one-fifth of the world’s fuel and profoundly affect the global economy.

Although the U.S. National Security Strategy does not place the Middle East among America’s top strategic priorities, the same document states that: “We (the United States) want to prevent an adversarial power from dominating the Middle East, its oil and gas supplies, and the chokepoints through which they pass while avoiding the forever wars”, which shows Persian Gulf oil is still of high importance for Washington.

Tilting Power Balance: In addition, heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf would endanger China’s economic interests, and any large-scale military confrontation would likely lead to a more pronounced military-security presence by Russia and China in the Gulf—tilting the balance in favor of America’s rivals.

And finally?

The embers beneath the region’s ashes today could be ignited by the slightest breeze, engulfing a vast area. Israel, while likely the first target of Iran’s retaliatory response in the event of a U.S. attack, is nevertheless eager to initiate confrontation based on the calculation that a war waged with the full might of the United States could ultimately erode the very existence of the Islamic Republic or weaken it to the point of capitulation. In this context, it is not far-fetched to suggest that the disclosure of new documents and details concerning Trump’s links to the notorious Epstein case and his mysterious island may have been driven by the Mossad, as such revelations could compel the U.S. president to undertake an irrational action to divert attention elsewhere.

Today, Trump is acting more than ever in contradiction to his own professed principles—from trampling on his signature MAGA slogan and morphing it into MIGA (Make Israel Great Again), to undermining his administration’s efforts to reduce unnecessary international expenditures; from his paradoxical pride in having ended “eight wars” to the strategy of off-shore balancing the Middle East. Should a war of this magnitude and consequence erupt, no country involved—whether through direct action or geographic proximity—would be spared its consequences. Regarding these circumstances, it appears that the only desirable scenario for Trump, the region, and the world at large is the opening of a genuine dialogue, free from the shadow of threats, intimidation, and American bullying.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says that calm is being restored and that improvised cartel roadblocks are being removed.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to assuage fears following a government raid that killed one of the country’s most-wanted drug trafficking leaders, prompting a series of violent outbursts by cartels across the country.

Speaking alongside Sheinbaum during a press conference on Monday, Security Secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch said that 25 members of the National Guard had been killed in fighting with criminal groups in the state of Jalisco after the raid.

“What is important now is to guarantee peace and security of all the population, of all of Mexico,” Sheinbaum said, adding that conditions have improved and Mexico “is calm” after the Sunday raid that killed Nemesio Oseguera, also known as “El Mencho”, of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

The killing of Mencho comes as Mexico is under growing pressure from the United States to take a more aggressive stance towards drug-trafficking groups, although the killing of top-level cartel figures in the past has had little impact on the drug trade and has often created a leadership vacuum that others violently act to fill.

The raid also set off a wave of reprisal attacks and impromptu roadblocks that have spread fear and uncertainty through Mexico, where criminal groups violently jostle for control of territory.

Garcia Harfuch said that the 25 members of the National Guard were killed in six incidents across Jalisco, adding that 30 people he described as criminal suspects were also killed in the clashes, along with four in Michoacan.

“First there was a huge gun battle, and then another, and another,” an anonymous resident of the town of Aguililla in Michoacan told the news service AFP, saying that cartel gunmen attacked a local outpost of soldiers on Sunday. “But they couldn’t advance because the soldiers stopped them.”

Defence Secretary Ricardo Trevilla said that an additional 2,500 security force members would be sent to Jalisco to reinforce the armed forces already deployed there, and Sheinbaum said that all of the more than 250 roadblocks erected across 20 states in response to the raid have been removed.

Mexican officials have sought to downplay the prospect of long-term disruptions stemming from the raid, with Sheinbaum saying that flights to and from Puerto Vallarta, located in the state of Jalisco, are expected to resume on Monday or Tuesday.

“In Puerto Vallarta, flights continue to be disrupted due to availability of flight crews. The Embassy is in close contact with airlines to monitor their plans,” the US Department of State Consular Affairs said in a social media post on Monday. “All other airports in Mexico are open, and most airports are operating normally. If you are traveling via any airport other than Guadalajara or Puerto Vallarta, we have received no indication of any security-related flight disruptions.”

The Mexican embassy to the US has shared social media posts debunking online rumours of attacks on civilians at Guadalajara airport and US tourists being held hostage.

Amid the steady drumbeat of reports pointing to the growing likelihood of strikes on Iran, there are indications that officials from Washington and Tehran will meet this week for another round of talks centered on the Iranian nuclear program. While the two sides remain generally at loggerheads, Iranian officials are now openly talking about possible concessions on their nuclear program in return for sanctions relief and the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes.

The Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, told CBS over the weekend that U.S. and Iranian negotiators would likely hold more discussions in Geneva on Thursday, with the aim of making “a fast deal.” Iran and the United States resumed negotiations earlier this month.

Now, Araghchi says that he thinks there is still a good chance of finding a diplomatic solution in planned talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff. However, he added that “If the United States attacks us, then we have every right to defend ourselves.” Iran has repeatedly threatened to strike U.S. bases in the region if it is attacked.

Mexican security forces have killed Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, the notorious drug lord widely known as “El Mencho”, in a major military operation, the country’s Secretariat of National Defence confirmed.

The Mexican government said that seven members of Oseguera’s Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) were killed in the raid in Tapalpa on Sunday.

Reports of road blocking and violence by drug cartels emerged in Jalisco and other states after news of the operation became public.

“At this time, elements of the Mexican National Guard and Mexican Army troops from the centre of the country and states neighbouring Jalisco are mobilising to reinforce the security of this state,” the Defence Secretariat said in a statement.

“With these actions, the Secretariat of National Defence reaffirms its commitment to contributing to the strengthening of Mexico’s security.”

Oseguera, the leader of the powerful CJNG, one of Mexico’s most violent and dominant criminal organisations, spent decades evading justice.

Washington, which had a $15m reward for information leading to Oseguera’s arrest, was quick to laud the raid.

“I’ve just been informed that Mexican security forces have killed ‘El Mencho,’ one of the bloodiest and most ruthless drug kingpins,” US Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau said in a post on X, calling the operation “a great development for Mexico, the US, Latin America, and the world”.

Of the seven cartel members killed on Sunday, four had been injured but later succumbed to their wounds. Three others were arrested, according to the Secretariat of National Defence.

Three military personnel were wounded during the operation and hospitalised, according to the statement.

As news of the killing spread, cartel-linked violence erupted in response, with reports of roadblocks, burning vehicles, and other acts of intimidation in Jalisco and surrounding areas – tactics the CJNG has used in the past to disrupt security operations.

President Claudia Sheinbaum said her government was responding to the unrest, stressing that in the “vast majority of the national territory, activities are proceeding with complete normality”.

“There is absolute coordination with the governments of all states; we must remain informed and calm,” Sheinbaum wrote on X.

According to The New York Times, the violence erupted in at least five Mexican states, and
the Spanish newspaper El Pais also reported “blockades” in central Mexico.

An Al Jazeera witness shared photos of a burned-out bus on a major highway in Guadalajara, the capital of Jalisco, which will host several matches in the upcoming FIFA World Cup.

The US Embassy in Mexico warned American citizens in Jalisco and other central states to stay at home until further notice due “to ongoing security operations, associated roadblocks and related criminal activity”.

Landau, the US diplomat, also expressed concern about the events. “It’s not surprising that the bad guys are responding with terror. But we must never lose our nerve,” he said.

While airports across Mexico remain operational, the US embassy later noted that “some domestic and international flights cancelled” in Guadalajara and Puerto Vallarta, a coastal city in Jalisco.

The Reuters news agency reported that several major airlines, including Air Canada and United, have temporarily halted flights to Puerto Vallarta.

Oseguera’s fall was a priority target for the US, and is the biggest blow to drug trafficking in recent years.

Oseguera had built an aura of mystery around himself, drawing on the overwhelming power of the CJNG and his limited media presence: All photos of him were decades old, according to Al Pais.

Oseguera crossed over the border in the US several times in the late 80s, and lived illegally in San Francisco.

At the age of 19, he was arrested for the first time by local police for stolen property and carrying a loaded gun.

In 1989, he was arrested again and deported to Mexico. But he re-entered the US and was again arrested on drug charges in 1992 . He was prosecuted and sentenced to five years in prison after pleading guilty.

After spending three years in a federal US prison, El Mencho was released on parole and deported to Mexico, where he joined the local police.

A former police officer and avocado farmer, he rose through the ranks of the Milenio Cartel before founding the CJNG.

The FBI has described him as one of the most wanted fugitives in Mexico, and the CJNG as one of the most violent cartels in the country.

“It has been assessed to have the highest cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine trafficking capacity in Mexico, and over the past few years, includes the trafficking of fentanyl into the United States,” the FBI said in a 2024 statement.

“Under Oseguera Cervantes’ leadership, CJNG has been responsible for many homicides against rival trafficking groups and Mexican law enforcement officers.”

An explosive-laden motorcycle rammed vehicle in security forces convoy, military says.

Two soldiers, including a lieutenant colonel, have been killed during a military operation when a fighter driving an explosive-laden motorcycle rammed a security convoy vehicle in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province near the border with Afghanistan, according to the country’s army.

The deadly clash took place on Saturday in KP’s Bannu district, with the Pakistani military saying at least five armed fighters, including one it described as “a suicide bomber” were also killed during the operation.

The military said that the bomber was stopped by the leading security team, preventing his attempt to attack civilians and law enforcement personnel and averting “a major catastrophe”.

The army referred to the fighters as “khawarij” – the term it uses for banned groups, including the Pakistan Taliban, also known as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Islamabad has repeatedly accused the Taliban administration in Kabul of providing refuge to the TTP, a banned Pakistani group separate from but linked to the Afghan Taliban, though Kabul has denied the allegations.

The two countries had previously clashed in a brief border conflict in October last year.

“Pakistan will not exercise any restrain and operations would continue against the perpetrators of this heinous and cowardly act for justified retribution against khwarij, irrespective of their location,” the statement said.

“Such sacrifices of our brave soldiers further reinforce our unwavering commitment to safeguarding our nation at all costs,” it said.

Repeated attacks

Bannu has long been a frequent flashpoint for armed violence, with repeated attacks on security forces and police checkpoints in recent years.

Security officials have reported strikes on police installations, suicide bombings and armed assaults in the district, part of a broader surge in armed rebel group activity across KP after the TTP ended a ceasefire with the government in late 2022.

Earlier this week, two bomb attacks and a gun battle between police and rebel fighters killed more than a dozen people in the province. One child and 11 security personnel ⁠were ⁠killed in an attack ‌in Bajaur district, the Pakistani military said, while seven ⁠others, ⁠including women and children, ⁠were injured ⁠in ⁠the incident.

These are the key developments from day 1,458 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, February 21:

Fighting

• The death toll from a Russian attack on a warehouse in Malynivka in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region rose to three after rescuers found two more bodies under the rubble, the State Emergency Service said on the Telegram messaging app.
• A Russian drone attack killed two police officers as they were on their way to evacuate residents near the village of Serednii Burluk in Kharkiv, the National Police of Ukraine said on Telegram.
• Russian forces launched a ballistic missile and 128 drones towards Ukraine overnight on Thursday, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence said on Facebook. Ukrainian forces shot down 107 of the drones, the ministry added.
• Russian attacks caused dozens of injuries and damage to homes and infrastructure, including oil and gas facilities in Ukraine’s Poltava region, according to the country’s state-owned oil and gas company Naftogaz.
• Russian forces attacked Komyshuvas in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region with guided bombs, causing a fire in residential buildings that injured a 22-year-old woman and a 27-year-old man, regional governor Ivan Fedorov said on Telegram.
• In Russia, two people were killed and three were wounded in a Ukrainian drone attack on a car in the rural Maksimovskoye settlement located on the front line in the Belgorod region, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov wrote on Telegram.
• The attack was one of several by Ukrainian forces across Belgorod, including another strike that killed a man in the village of Pochayevo, the regional emergency task force wrote on Telegram.
• Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of Russia’s Bryansk region, said Ukrainian forces attacked a hospital in the village of Voronok with drones, though no casualties were reported.
• A “significant portion” of the northwest of Russian-occupied Zaporizhia was left without electricity due to “a massive attack” by Ukrainian forces on the region’s electric grid, Russia’s TASS state news agency reported, citing a Russian-appointed official, Yevhen Balitsky.
• Yevgeniya Yashina, communications director at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, told TASS that there was heavy Ukrainian shelling in the vicinity of the facility, which has been under Russian occupation since 2022.

Politics and diplomacy

• French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer will chair a video conference of Ukraine’s “Coalition of the Allies” on February 24, which will mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Macron’s office said on Friday.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told reporters in a WhatsApp group that no positive movement has been made regarding negotiations over the future of Ukrainian land occupied by Russia in peace talks with Moscow mediated by the United States.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Friday that he cannot yet confirm when and where a new round of talks on Ukraine will take place after TASS reported the next talks will take place in Geneva.

Energy

• The European Commission has allowed the German government to take trusteeship of the German assets of US-sanctioned Russian oil group Rosneft, which supplies most of the fuel to Berlin via its PCK Schwedt refinery, when the current arrangement expires on March 10.

• The US Department of the Treasury has extended a sanctions waiver on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil firm NIS until March 20, giving the Balkan country another month to import crude oil supplies, Serbia’s Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic said in a statement.
• Hungary will block a 90 billion euro ($106bn) European Union loan for Ukraine until oil transit to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline resumes, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said.
• “By blocking oil transit to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, Ukraine violates the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement, breaching its commitments to the European Union. We will not give in to this blackmail,” Szijjarto said on X.

Regional security

• Britain and European allies – including France, Germany, Italy and Poland – will work together to develop new low-cost air defence weapons to protect the continent’s skies, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence said in a statement.

Ukraine expressed frustration with its ongoing peace talks with Russia and the United States this week, saying US pressure was too one-sided against it.

“As of today, we cannot say that the outcome is sufficient,” Zelenskyy told Ukrainians in a Wednesday evening video address.

Before Wednesday’s talks in Geneva had begun, Zelenskyy told Axios news service that ceding the remaining one-fifth of the eastern Donetsk region that Russia doesn’t control, as Moscow has demanded, would not be accepted by Ukrainians.

“Emotionally, people will never forgive this. Never. They will not forgive … me, they will not forgive [the US],” Zelenskyy said, adding that Ukrainians “can’t understand why” they would be asked to give up additional land.

Russia currently controls about 19 percent of Ukraine, down from 26 percent in March 2022.

Last month, 54 percent of surveyed Ukrainians told the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology they categorically reject transferring the whole of the Donetsk region to Russian control, even in return for strong security guarantees, with only 39 percent accepting the proposal.

Two-thirds of respondents also said they did not believe the current US-sponsored peace negotiations would lead to lasting peace.

Instead of ceding land now, Zelenskyy favours freezing the current line of contact as a pretext for a ceasefire and territorial negotiations.

“I think that if we will put in the document … that we stay where we stay on the contact line, I think that people will support this [in a] referendum. That is my opinion,” he told Axios.

Blaming Ukraine

US President Donald Trump told Reuters last month that Ukraine, not Russia, was holding up a peace deal.

But Zelenskyy said it was “not fair” that Trump was putting public pressure on Ukraine to accept Russian terms, adding, “I hope it is just his tactics.”

US senators visiting Odesa last week agreed with him, saying they want their government to put more pressure on Russia.

“Nobody, literally nobody, believes that Russia is acting in good faith in the negotiations with our government and with the Ukrainians. And so pressure becomes the key,” said Senator Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island.

Russia unleashed a barrage of 396 attack drones and 29 missiles on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on the day of the Geneva talks, its second large-scale blow in six days. On February 12, another attack had left 100,000 families without electricity, and 3,500 apartment buildings without heat in Kyiv alone.

“Russia greets with a strike even the very day new formats begin in Geneva – trilateral and bilateral with the United States,” said Zelenskyy in a video address. “This very clearly shows what Russia wants and what it is truly intent on.”

Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked Western allies to stop Russian energy sales that circumvent sanctions, and to stop exporting components to third countries, which re-export them to Russia’s armaments industry.

Russia is believed to be using a shadow fleet estimated at between 400 and 1,000 oil tankers to carry and sell its crude oil. France has seized two of those tankers, and the US seized a second tanker on Monday.

The US Senate has held off voting on a sanctions bill that has 85 percent support because of opposition from Trump. The bill would impose secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian oil – notably India and China.

Can Russia take Donetsk anyway?

Russia has fought since 2014 to seize the two eastern regions of Ukraine, which triggered its invasion – Luhansk and Donetsk – where it claimed a Russian-speaking population was being persecuted by the government in Kyiv.

Late last year, Russia managed to seize all of Luhansk, but analysts believe it is doubtful that it could take the remainder of Donetsk without serious losses, because Ukraine has heavily fortified a series of cities in the western part of the region.

That task has now become even harder, according to observers, since Russia this month lost access to Starlink terminals, which helped it communicate, fly its drones and coordinate accurate counter-battery fire.

As Russian ground assaults have faltered, Ukraine has seized the initiative to make gains in Dnipropetrovsk, said Ukrainian military observer Konstantyn Mashovets.

Ukrainian forces gained 201sq km of territory from Russian occupation forces between February 11 and 15, according to observers, reportedly their fastest advance since a 2023 counteroffensive.

Russia has been trying to replace Starlink using stratospheric balloons, reported Ukrainian Defence Ministry adviser Serhiy “Flash” Beskrestnov.

Russia would likely take six months to replace Starlink, said a Ukrainian unmanned systems commander, offering Ukrainian forces a window to roll back Russian advances.

It also suffered 31,680 casualties in January, estimated Ukraine’s General Staff – a sustainable number given Russian recruitment levels of about 40,000 a month. But those numbers would rise in the event of a major assault on the remainder of Donetsk, experts say.

“Our goal is to have at least 50,000 confirmed enemy losses every month,” said Ukrainian Minister of Defence Mykhailo Fedorov on February 12, echoing a goal set by Zelenskyy last month.

Fedorov has set out to increase the production of remote-control FPV drones used on the front lines, which Ukraine says are now responsible for 60 percent of all Russian casualties.

As part of that effort, joint drone production facilities are planned in several European countries. The first started operating on February 13 in Germany, Zelenskyy told the Munich Security Conference, and nine more are planned.

In addition, Ukraine’s European allies pledged 38 billion euros ($44.7bn) in military aid this year during a Ramstein format meeting – the alliance of more than 50 countries which plans military aid for Ukraine – including 2.5 billion euros ($2.9bn) for Ukrainian drones – “one of the most successful ‘Ramsteins’,” Fedorov said.

The European Union has additionally voted to borrow 90 billion euros ($106bn) to give to Ukraine in financial aid this year and next.

The US stopped being a donor of military and financial aid to Ukraine after Trump was sworn in as president in January 2025.

Against Trump’s wishes, the US Senate voted to spend $400m in each of the next two years as part of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, which pays US companies for weapons for Ukraine’s military. Europeans have pledged to spend at least 5 billion euros ($5.8bn) on US weapons this year.

Europe would also be the main contributor to a “reassurance force” policing the line of contact after a ceasefire, and on Ukraine’s insistence, US representatives also met with British, French, German, Italian and Swiss representatives before the talks in Geneva.

The United States administration is intensifying its build-up of a vast array of military assets in the Middle East, as President Donald Trump says Iran has “10 to 15 days at most” to agree a deal over its nuclear programme and stock of ballistic missiles.

As well as the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, which is reportedly joining the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea, key force multipliers such as E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft have been deployed.

In a letter to the United Nations Security Council, Iran said that while the country does not seek “tension or war and will not initiate a war”, any US aggression will be responded to “decisively and proportionately”.

“The United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences,” it said.

Here is what we know about the recent US deployment of military assets in the Middle East – which has also led to a dispute with the United Kingdom over the use of its joint military base in Diego Garcia.

What air power assets has the US deployed to the Middle East?

According to open-source intelligence analysts and military flight-tracking data, the US appears to have deployed more than 120 aircraft to the region within the past few days – the largest surge in US airpower in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq war.

The reported deployments include E-3 Sentry Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft, F-35 stealth strike fighters and F-22 air superiority jets, alongside F-15s and F-16s. Flight-tracking data shows many departing bases in the US and Europe, supported by cargo aircraft and aerial refuelling tankers, a sign of sustained operational planning rather than routine rotations.

F-22s and F-35s previously escorted B-2 stealth bombers during Operation Midnight Hammer, the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites Trump ordered in June 2025 during the 12-day conflict between Iran and Israel.

“Watch any movement by B-2s. That would indicate a possible replay of ‘Midnight Hammer’,” Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior adviser with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, told Al Jazeera.

This latest wave was preceded several weeks ago by the arrival of Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles. US Central Command said on social media at the time that the fighter jet “enhances combat readiness and promotes regional security and stability”.

What role could Diego Garcia and the UK play?

Attention has also focused on Diego Garcia, the joint UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean’s Chagos Islands, which is capable of hosting long-range US strategic bombers, including B-2 aircraft.

The remote base has historically served as a launch point for major US air campaigns in the region.

However, Diego Garcia is a British sovereign territory leased to Washington, meaning London must approve its use for offensive operations. According to reports in UK media, Prime Minister Keir Starmer has indicated to Trump that the US cannot use British airbases – including Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford in the UK, which is home to the US’s heavy bomber fleet in Europe – for strikes on Iran, as this would be in breach of international law.

Trump retaliated by withdrawing US support for the UK’s decision to transfer the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, announced last year.

On Wednesday, the US president said Starmer was “making a big mistake” in the agreement to transfer sovereignty of the archipelago.

“DO NOT GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, saying the base could be called upon in any future military operation to counter a potential attack from Iran.

What do we know about US warships in the Arabian Sea?

The USS Gerald R Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is currently being redeployed from the Caribbean to the Middle East.

The carrier and its accompanying strike group are expected to arrive in the region in the coming weeks.

On Wednesday, it briefly transmitted its location off the coast of Morocco, suggesting it is transiting the Atlantic towards the Strait of Gibraltar and will then go into the Mediterranean.

This is the same vessel that previously supported US military operations in Venezuela, including missions conducted under Operation Southern Spear.

The USS Gerald R Ford will join the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which recent satellite imagery shows is operating in the Arabian Sea off the coast of Oman, positioning US naval power within striking distance of Iran.

The US Navy also has multiple guided-missile destroyers in the region equipped with advanced air defence and ballistic missile interception systems. These multi-role vessels can carry and launch Tomahawk cruise missiles capable of striking land targets deep inside Iran, alongside their anti-submarine and fleet defence missions.

How is Iran responding?

Iran has publicly warned that it will view any military strike by the US as a serious provocation.

Tehran has also moved ahead with its own planned military activities. It announced and began joint naval exercises with Russia in the Sea of Oman and northern Indian Ocean on Thursday. These are intended to enhance maritime cooperation and signal deterrence amid rising US pressure.

As part of these manoeuvres, Iranian authorities issued a Notice to Airmen (NOTAM) for rocket launches over southern Iran on Thursday from 03:30 to 13:30 GMT and temporarily closed parts of the Strait of Hormuz, a strategically vital shipping route, during live-fire drills.

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also warned that a US strike on Iran would have serious repercussions, underscoring the risk of escalation if hostilities spread.

Satellite images published by the Reuters news agency on Thursday showed that Iran has recently built a concrete shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, experts say, advancing work at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024.

Images also show that Iran has buried tunnel entrances at a nuclear site bombed by the US during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last year, fortified tunnel entrances near another, and has repaired missile bases struck in the conflict.

Analytical reports also suggest that Iran has built a multilayered defence centred on mines, missiles, submarines and drones with the intent of slowing down the US forces.

Some analysts say Iran may seek to avoid an immediate full-scale confrontation, but this may be difficult.

“The Iranians have, over the past six months, quietly taken additional steps to move critical assets further underground,” Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, said during a roundtable discussion hosted by the CSIS Middle East Program this week

“They are going to be unpredictable,” he said. “But I think they could go big at the beginning, or they might want to drag the United States into a protracted situation.

“You hit a tanker, or you hit an oil facility, or you hit an American ship, and then it’s up to President Trump to decide whether to escalate further. And it can go beyond that.

“We are in a scenario where this might get out of control very quickly,” Nasr added.

Is the US likely to attack Iran?

According to experts, it is a very real possibility.

“The United States is doing all the things that it would do if it were going to conduct some sort of attack,” Cancian told Al Jazeera. “It has moved aircraft into the area, two aircraft carriers, plus enablers like AWACS.”

Barbara Slavi, distinguished fellow at Stimson Center, agreed with this assessment. “It seems that the Trump administration has decided that it is going to attack Iran again, and I presume in conjunction with the Israelis,” she said.

“What the objectives are, we have yet to see. Can it be contained? Will others be drawn in? These are all really important questions, and we don’t have answers.”

Is this a similar situation to what we saw earlier this year in Venezuela?

A build-up of US military assets in the Caribbean, close to Venezuela, which began in September 2025, led to multiple strikes on Venezuelan boats that the US claimed – without proof – were carrying drugs. It culminated in the dramatic January 3 raid on Caracas by US forces and the abduction of then-President Nicolas Maduro, who now faces trial on guns and drugs charges in New York.

“The build-up [in the Arabian Sea] has similarities, but one key difference is the strategic context,” Cancian said.

“Unlike the Venezuela raid, there hasn’t been a large deployment of Special Operations Forces, and Iran’s geography, far inland and heavily defended, makes a quick ground raid unlikely.

“If there are strikes, I would expect long-range missile attacks against security forces such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Strikes against nuclear facilities are also possible, but missiles like Tomahawk can only damage above-ground facilities,” he added.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is reportedly planning to travel to Israel on February 28 to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a State Department official said.

Last summer, the US carried out air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities even as senior American diplomats were scheduled to meet with their Iranian counterparts in ongoing talks.

These are the key developments from day 1,457 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Friday, February 20:

Fighting

• Russian forces launched 448 attacks on 34 settlements in Ukraine’s front-line Zaporizhia region in a single day, injuring a six-year-old child and damaging homes, cars and other infrastructure, regional governor Ivan Fedorov wrote on the Telegram app.
• Russian drone, missile and artillery attacks on Ukraine’s Kherson region injured five people and damaged homes, including seven high-rise buildings, the local military administration said on Telegram.
• Russian attacks also continued in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions, but local officials there noted that “fortunately, no people were injured”. According to the Kyiv Independent news outlet, overnight was “unusually quiet” following weeks of “heavy fire” in the two regions.
• A man was killed by shrapnel from a Ukrainian drone attack on Sevastopol, in Russian-occupied Crimea, Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev said on Telegram.
• A Ukrainian drone attack caused a fire at an oil depot in Velikiye Luki in Russia’s Pskov region, local official Mikhail Vedernikov said, according to Russia’s state TASS news agency.
• Russian forces shot down 301 Ukrainian drones, 10 missiles and two guided bombs in a 24-hour period, Russia’s Ministry of Defence said, according to TASS.

Peace process

• United States President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace held its first meeting in Washington, DC, without Belarus participating, despite Trump extending an invitation to the Russian ally.
• Belarus’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement that its delegation to the meeting did not receive the necessary visas to enter the US “despite carrying out all the required procedures”.
• The Foreign Ministry questioned, “What kind of peace and what kind of sequence of steps are we talking about if the organisers cannot even complete basic formalities for us to take part?”

• France’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Pascal Confavreux expressed surprise to see the European Commission had sent a commissioner to participate in Trump’s meeting, noting that it “does not have a mandate from the [European] Council to go and participate”.

• Confavreux also said France would not take part in Trump’s initiative until the Board of Peace returned its focus to Gaza in line with a United Nations Security Council resolution.
• Several European Union member states have said they will not participate in the peace board after Trump extended an invitation to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who launched the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and is subject to an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court.

Regional Security

• Dutch intelligence services AIVD and MIVD said on Thursday that European countries, including the Netherlands, were facing increased hybrid threats from Russia, including cyberattacks, sabotage, influence campaigns and disinformation.

Energy

• Ukraine’s Russian-held Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is operating on its sole remaining main power line after losing its only backup power line more than a week ago, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Rafael Grossi, said in a statement.
• Hungary is considering halting power and gas exports to Ukraine and will take such steps unless Ukraine resumes the flow of crude oil shipments via the Druzhba pipeline, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s chief of staff told a briefing.
• The Druzhba pipeline, parts of which run through Ukraine, is crucial for the transfer of Russian crude oil to Hungary and Slovakia. Oil flows have reportedly halted since an attack on the pipeline in January, which Kyiv has blamed on Russia.
• France’s Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry Roland Lescure said his country would provide 71 million euros ($83.5m) in additional funding for Ukraine for services including energy, health and clearing land mines.

Politics and diplomacy

• The head of Russia’s FSB security service accused Telegram messaging app founder Pavel Durov of condoning criminal activity on the platform, in an escalation of Moscow’s rhetoric as it moved to restrict the service that is used by many Russians and Ukrainians to communicate about the war.

•  Dismissing a Russian government allegation that foreign intelligence services are able to see messages sent by Russian soldiers on Telegram, the popular platform said it had not found any breaches of its encryption codes and called Russia’s claims a “deliberate fabrication”, according to the Reuters news agency.

Military aid

• Sweden announced a 12.9 billion crown ($1.42bn) military aid package for Ukraine that will include air defences, drones, long-range missiles and ammunition.

Qatar has pledged $1 billion to support the Board of Peace’s mission in Gaza, with Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani backing Donald Trump’s 20-point plan and reaffirming support for Palestinian statehood and Israeli security.

Feb. 19 (UPI) — The United States has put military forces in place in the Middle East for a potential strike on Iran but President Donald Trump has not decided whether to attack or continue negotiations on Thursday.

A strike could occur as early as this weekend, with naval and air forces quickly coming into place. National security officials met in the Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss courses of action against Iran.

U.S. armed forces have been assembling in the Middle East in recent weeks as the United States and Iran have negotiated a scaling back of Iran’s nuclear program. The latest conversations took place in Geneva on Tuesday, sans Trump who said he would be involved “indirectly.”

The negotiations between the United States and Iran ended without a resolution on Tuesday. Trump has called for Iran to end its nuclear program.

Iranian officials said they agreed with U.S. negotiators on a “set of guiding principles.” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said to expect more details about these negotiations to come forward in the weeks to come. She did not say whether Trump would take action before that happens.

“I’m not going to set deadlines on behalf of the president of the United States,” she said.

In recent weeks, the United States has moved warships to the Indian Ocean while Trump warned Iran over the killings and detainments of thousands of protesters against the Iranian regime.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has an interest in Iran drawing down its missile capabilities as well. Israeli forces have been on alert over the possibility of an open conflict as tensions have continued to heighten.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is slated to meet with Netanyahu in Israel on Feb. 28, to provide an update on the negotiations with Iran.

The United States launched strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities in June, causing what Iranian officials called “serious and significant damage.”

Newly released satellite images show that Iran has recently built a concrete ‌shield over a new facility at a sensitive military site and covered it in soil, advancing work at a location reportedly bombed by Israel in 2024 amid soaring tensions with ⁠the United States and the threat of regional war.

The images also show that Iran has ⁠buried tunnel entrances at a nuclear site bombed by Washington during Israel’s 12-day war with Iran last year – which the US joined on Israel’s behalf – fortified tunnel entrances near another, and has repaired missile bases struck in the conflict.

They offer a rare glimpse of Iranian activities at some of the sites at the centre of tensions with Israel and the US.

Some 30km (20 miles) southeast of Tehran, the Parchin complex is one of Iran’s most sensitive military sites. Western intelligence has suggested Tehran carried out tests relevant to nuclear bomb detonations there more than 20 years ago. Iran has always denied seeking ⁠atomic weapons and says its nuclear programme is purely for civilian purposes.

Neither US intelligence nor the UN nuclear watchdog found any evidence last year that Iran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

Israel reportedly struck Parchin in October 2024. Satellite imagery taken before and after that attack shows extensive damage to a rectangular building at Parchin, and apparent reconstruction in images from November 6, 2024. Imagery from October 12, 2025, shows development at the site, with the skeleton of a new structure visible and two smaller structures adjacent to it.

Progress is apparent in imagery from November 14, with what appears to be a metallic roof covering the large structure. By February 16, it cannot be seen at all, hidden by what experts say is a concrete structure.

The Institute for ‌Science and International Security (ISIS), in a January 22 analysis of satellite imagery, pointed to progress in the construction of a “concrete sarcophagus” around a newly built facility at the site, which it identified as Taleghan 2.

ISIS founder David Albright wrote on X: “Stalling the negotiations has its benefits: Over the last two to three weeks, Iran has been busy burying the new Taleghan 2 facility … More soil is available and the facility ⁠may soon become a fully unrecognizable bunker, providing significant protection from aerial strikes.”

The institute also reported in late January that satellite images showed new efforts to bury two tunnel entrances at the Isfahan complex – one of the three ⁠Iranian uranium-enrichment plants bombed by the US in June during the war. By early February, ISIS said all entrances to the tunnel complex were ⁠”completely buried”.

Other images point to ongoing efforts since February 10 to “harden and defensively ⁠strengthen” two entrances to a tunnel complex under a mountain some 2km (1.2 miles) from Natanz – the site that holds Iran’s other two uranium enrichment plants.

This comes as Washington seeks to negotiate a deal with Tehran on its nuclear programme while threatening military action if talks fail.

On Tuesday, US and Iranian representatives reached an understanding on main “guiding principles” during a meeting in Geneva, but felt short of achieving any breakthrough. The meeting in the Swiss city came after a first round of talks in Oman on February 6.

Reports suggest that Tehran would make detailed proposals in the next two weeks to close gaps. Among the many hurdles in the negotiations is the US push to widen the scope of the deal to include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic arsenal and support for its allies in the region.

That is fuelled by Israel’s demands and regional narrative, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly pressing US President Donald Trump to shift from nuclear-only parameters.

Tehran has insisted that these provisions are non-negotiable but that it is open to discuss curbs on its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief.

A previous negotiating effort collapsed last year when Israel launched attacks on Iran, triggering the 12-day war that Washington joined in by bombing key Iranian nuclear sites.

As diplomacy forges a path, both parties are ramping up military pressure.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) held a series of war games on Monday and Tuesday in the Strait of Hormuz to prepare for “potential security and military threats”.

On Wednesday, Tehran announced new joint naval drills with Russia in the Sea of Oman. Rear Admiral Hassan Maqsoudlou said the exercises were aimed at preventing any unilateral action in the region, and enhancing coordination against threats to maritime security, including risks to commercial vessels and oil tankers.

The US has also escalated its military build-up in the region. Trump has ordered a second aircraft carrier to the region, with the first, the USS Abraham Lincoln and its nearly 80 aircraft, positioned about 700 kilometres (435 miles) from the Iranian coast as of Sunday, according to satellite imagery.

The Trump administration also issued new threats against Tehran with White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt saying on Wednesday that “Iran would be very wise to make a deal” with the US. Trump escalated his rhetoric on social media.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal,” the US may need to use an Indian Ocean airbase in the Chagos Islands, “in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime”, he wrote on his Truth Social platform.

These are the key developments from day 1,456 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Thursday, February 19:

Fighting

• Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region, killing one person and injuring seven others over the past day, the region’s military administration said on the Telegram messaging platform.
• The attacks involved 448 drones as well as 163 artillery strikes, causing damage to 136 homes, cars and other structures, the military administration said.
• Russian forces also continued shelling Ukraine’s Donetsk region, forcing 173 people, including 135 children, to evacuate front-line areas over the past day, regional governor Vadym Filashkin said on Telegram.
• A 54-year-old man was killed in a Russian attack in the Nikopol district of Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, Governor Oleksandr Hanzha said on Telegram.
• Russian attacks also left many people without electricity across Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Energy, including more than 99,000 households in the Odesa region.
• In Russia, one person was killed in a Ukrainian drone attack on the village of Aleynikovo in the country’s Bryansk region, Governor Alexander Bogomaz said.
• Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that Russian forces seized the village of Kharkivka in Ukraine’s Sumy region and Krynychne in the Zaporizhia region, according to Russia’s state news agency TASS.
• Ukrainian battlefield monitoring site DeepState said that Russian forces advanced in Nykyforivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
• Russian forces shot down 155 Ukrainian drones, 11 rocket launchers, and two guided aerial bombs in a 24-hour period, Russia’s Defence Ministry said, according to TASS.

Peace talks

• Negotiators from Russia and Ukraine concluded the second of two days of US-mediated talks in Geneva, with both sides describing the negotiations as “difficult”.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that although “progress has been made … for now, positions differ because the negotiations were difficult”.
• President Zelenskyy later told the Piers Morgan Uncensored current affairs show that Russia and Ukraine were close to defining terms for how a potential ceasefire would be monitored, but progress on “political” issues had been slower, including on the most divisive issue of control of territory.
• In Washington, White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said there was “meaningful progress made” with pledges “to continue to work towards a peace deal together”, and more talks are expected in the near future.
• Vladimir Medinsky, Russia’s top negotiator, said the two days of talks in Geneva were “difficult but businesslike,” telling reporters that further negotiations would be held soon, without specifying when.
• Rustem Umerov, the head of Kyiv’s negotiating team, said that the second day had been “intensive and substantive” and that both sides were working towards decisions that can be sent to their presidents, he said.

Politics and diplomacy

• Ukraine imposed sanctions against Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, promising to “increase countermeasures” against Minsk for supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine, including through providing relay stations for Russian drone attacks on Ukraine, Zelenskyy said on social media.
• United States Senator Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire along with three other US senators from the Democratic Party visited Kyiv.
• Shaheen told reporters that she “would hope that we would see a stronger effort and some real work when we get back to put pressure on Putin”.

Sport

• Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna said in a post on Telegram that “allowing Russian and Belarusian athletes to participate in the Milano-Cortina Paralympics while Russia continues its full-scale war against Ukraine is a disgrace”.
• Estonian Public Broadcasting company Eesti Rahvusringhaaling announced it would not broadcast the games in protest at the decision to allow the Russian and Belarusian athletes to compete under their own flags.

White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt has said Iran would be “wise” to make a deal, as the United States surges further military assets to the Middle East.

Her statement came as part of a series of veiled threats from officials under US President Donald Trump, a day after US and Iranian representatives held a second round of indirect talks this month.

The two sides appeared to offer differing accounts of the talks. Iranian officials said both parties had agreed on “guiding principles”, but US Vice President JD Vance said Iran had yet to respond to all of Washington’s “red lines”.

During a news conference on Wednesday, Leavitt articulated the Trump administration’s position that Iran needs to accede to US demands.

“Iran would be very wise to make a deal with President Trump and with his administration,” she told reporters.

Trump, who has repeatedly threatened Iran with military action in response to its crackdown on protests last month, also referenced a possible escalation in a post on Truth Social on Wednesday.

The post warned Prime Minister Keir Starmer of the United Kingdom against a deal agreed to last year that would see London cede control of the Chagos Islands, strategically located in the centre of the Indian Ocean.

The deal nevertheless allows the UK and US to continue to lease and operate a joint airbase on the largest island, Diego Garcia.

“Should Iran decide not to make a Deal, it may be necessary for the United States to use Diego Garcia, and the Airfield located in Fairford, in order to eradicate a potential attack by a highly unstable and dangerous Regime,” Trump wrote.

“An attack that would potentially be made on the United Kingdom, as well as other friendly Countries.”

Meanwhile, speaking from the sidelines of an International Energy Agency (IAE) meeting in Paris, France, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned that Washington would deter Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons “one way or the other”.

“They’ve been very clear about what they would do with nuclear weapons. It’s entirely unacceptable,” Wright said.

Military buildup

The threats come as the US appears to be surging more military assets to the Middle East, raising the spectre of escalation.

As of Wednesday, the Pentagon had one aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, nine destroyers and three littoral combat ships in the region, with an anonymous US official telling the AFP news agency more were on the way.

That includes the world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, which is en route from the Atlantic Ocean.

The US has also sent a large fleet of aircraft to the Middle East, according to open-source intelligence accounts on X and flight-tracking website Flightradar24.

That deployment appears to include F-22 Raptor stealth fighter jets, F-15 and F-16 warplanes, and the KC-135 aerial refuelling aircraft that are needed to sustain their operations, according to the trackers.

The US had previously surged aircraft and naval vessels to the region ahead of strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites in June of last year, which came at the end of a 12-day war between Israel and Iran.

Iran does ‘not want war’

For his part, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Wednesday that the country did “not want war” but would not give in to US demands.

“From the day I took office, I have believed that war must be set aside. But if they are going to try to impose their will on us, humiliate us and demand that we bow our heads at any cost, should we accept that?” he asked.

Pezeshkian spoke shortly after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched exercises on Monday in the Strait of Hormuz, in a show of military might.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has previously warned that any new US strikes would lead to wider regional escalation.

Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement on Wednesday that its top diplomat Abbas Araghchi had spoken by phone with the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi.

Grossi “stressed the Islamic Republic of Iran’s focus on drafting an initial and coherent framework to advance future talks” on its nuclear programme, according to the statement.

Trump withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which saw Iran curtail its nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief, during his first term in 2018. In the years since, he has imposed a “maximum pressure” campaign that includes new sanctions.

Efforts to strike a new nuclear deal have repeatedly stalled since Trump’s first term.

Tehran has called for the latest round of talks to focus solely on its nuclear programme, which it maintains is used only for civilian purposes. It has also indicated it is willing to make concessions in exchange for the lifting of sanctions.

Washington has pushed for wider demands that are considered non-starters for Iran, including limits on its ballistic missile programme, although its demands during the latest round of talks were not immediately clear.

The United States spends more on its military than any other country. Military spending by the U.S. made up almost 40% of the total military spending worldwide in 2023, according to a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). When adjusted to 2024 dollars, the U.S. spent $5.74 trillion on WWII alone. That’s more than WWI, Vietnam, Korean, or the post-9/11 Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

U.S. military spending is expected to increase by 10% over the next decade. Congress approved and signed the Department of Defense’s (DOD) new budget into law for fiscal year 2024, which included $841.4 billion in funding for the Air Force, Navy, Army, Marine Corps, National Guard, and more.

According to projections by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), military expenditures will reach $922 billion (in 2024 dollars) by 2038. Almost 70% of that increase will be for the operation and maintenance of military personnel. The DOD requested $850 billion for 2025 to spend on the military. That’s about 3% of the GDP and relatively low compared to other times in U.S. history. The financial methods used to fund these expenditures will include increasing taxes and the national debt.

This level of military spending has national and global impacts and affects the economy.

Analyzing U.S. Military Spending from WWI to Post-9/11

Looking at military spending by war can show us how wars and defense spending affected the U.S. economy, factors that influenced military spending, and trends in defense spending over the years.

The total amount spent on each major U.S. war has been inflation-adjusted to 2024 dollars. All estimates are of the costs of military operations only and do not reflect the costs of veterans’ benefits, interest on war-related debt, or assistance to allies.

WWI (1917 – 1918): $466.91 Billion

The total cost of World War I was about $466.91 billion in 2024 dollars. When WWI began in 1914, the U.S. was in a recession. However, the economy began to recover and boom after European demand for U.S. goods increased during the war. 

This only intensified when the U.S. entered WWI in 1917, causing a massive increase in federal spending due to shifting the economy from peacetime to wartime production. Entering the war also created new manufacturing jobs and left more jobs open in the labor force, as many young men were drafted into the military. The government also funded the war by increasing taxes and selling Liberty bonds to Americans, who were later paid back the value of their bonds with interest. 

Funding WWI increased the U.S. national debt to over $25 billion by the war’s end. However, the U.S. emerged from WWI as an economic world power. Going into the 1920s, the national debt decreased, the government had a budget surplus, and stock market returns increased. The effect lasted until the economy crashed in 1929, the beginning of the Great Depression.

WWII (1941 – 1945): $5.74 Trillion

The U.S. spent nearly $6 trillion on World War II in 2024 dollars. In the peak year of spending, WWII expenditures made up 35.8% of the national GDP. Federal government spending on WWII was unprecedented.

The U.S. had one of the most significant periods of short-term economic growth between 1941 and 1945, largely fueled by government spending on WWII. The government-funded WWII mainly by increasing taxes and taking on debt. Government debt grew to more than $258 billion by the end of WWII. Tax rates also increased sharply, resulting in even families in poverty having to pay taxes. The average tax rate for top incomes rose up to 90% as well.

War-time production also boomed during this time, with over 36% of the estimated GDP solely dedicated to producing war goods. Over this short period, the U.S. produced 17 million rifles and pistols, over 80,000 tanks, 41 billion rounds of ammunition, 4 million artillery shells, 75,000 vessels, and about 300,000 planes, among other equipment and services needed for the war. However, with so many resources going into war production, it became harder for families to purchase household items like washing machines, irons, water heaters, and food that had to be rationed.   

When the U.S. entered WWII, it was reeling from the effects of the Great Depression, the most severe and prolonged recession in modern world history, from 1929 to 1941. Many attribute government spending on WWII to the end of the Great Depression. However, this broken window fallacy challenges the notion that going to war is good for a nation’s economy.

The theory also suggests that a boost to one part of the economy can cause losses in another part. While WWII reduced unemployment from the Great Depression as many were enlisted or worked in factories, the standard of living declined because of rationing and high taxes. Private sector jobs and production fell, along with overall consumption and investment.

Korean War (1950 – 1953): $476.69 Billion

The U.S. spent about $476.69 billion on the Korean War in 2024 dollars. While it was technically a civil war between the two opposing sides of the Korean peninsula, the U.S. and the United Nations joined in 1950 to support South Korea in a clash over democracy versus communism.

The U.S. funded the Korean War by implementing higher tax rates, contrasting funding by debt as in WWII. To do this, the government enacted the Revenue Act of 1950, increasing income tax rates to WWII levels. Individual and corporate taxes were raised again in 1951.

This was a financially turbulent time as the government had to implement price and wage controls to respond to the inflation created by additional government spending. Consumption and investment, two key factors contributing to the GDP, slowed down during this time and did not go back to pre-war levels.

Vietnam War (1962 – 1973): $1.03 Trillion

The U.S. spent about $1 trillion on the Vietnam war between 1962 to 1973. Military operations for the Vietnam War ramped up more slowly than WWII and the Korean War, with troop deployments starting in 1965. However, the U.S. had been providing aid and military training to South Vietnam since 1954 when Vietnam split into communist North Vietnam and the democratic South.

President John F. Kennedy expanded military aid in Vietnam as the conflict escalated between the North and the South, and President Lyndon B. Johnson continued that trend after Kennedy’s assassination. Escalating U.S. involvement in Vietnam was, in part, due to fears of the domino theory—the belief that if communism took over in Vietnam, it would spread through all of Southeast Asia.

The U.S. funded the war effort mainly by increasing taxes and advancing an expansive monetary policy that eventually led to high inflation in the mid-70s. Non-military spending was also very high during this time (unlike in previous wars, where military spending was significantly higher than non-military spending), largely due to President Johnson’s Great Society social programs, which included domestic policy initiatives such as work-study, Medicare, Medicaid, increased aid to public schools, and more.

Financing the war through increasing taxes and expansionary monetary policy left a lasting effect on the economy. It fueled inflation and caused the market to stagnate, which eventually turned into stubborn stagflation.

Afghanistan and Iraq Wars (2001 – 2021): $3.68 Trillion

The U.S. spent a total of $3.68 trillion in 2024 dollars on the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars over two decades. Military spending reached record levels under President George W. Bush, who launched the war in Afghanistan and the War on Terror in response to the September 11, 2001 attacks and the Iraq War in 2003.

The Afghanistan and Iraq Wars began in weak economic conditions owing to the recession from 2001 to 2002 after the Dotcom Bubble burst. Since this was the first time in U.S. history when taxes were cut during a war, both of these wars were completely funded by deficit spending. The government used an expansionary monetary policy that included low interest rates and fewer bank regulations to help stimulate the economy, but it was unsustainable in the long term for the U.S. government’s finances. The Federal Reserve Board increased interest rates again in 2006 and 2007 to help curb the housing bubble before the Great Recession in 2008. 

Military spending on operations in the Middle East peaked at nearly $964.4 billion in 2010, although it decreased in 2012 after the Budget Control Act of 2011, which was enacted in part to limit military spending to help bring down the growing national debt. However, annual caps on military spending were removed as of 2021. The Iraq War ended in 2011 under President Barack Obama, while the Afghanistan War ended in 2021 under President Joe Biden.

Key Drivers Behind U.S. Military Spending

Breakdown of U.S. Military Spending Components

Every year, the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) proposes a total budget and its specific allocations, which then go through Congress for approval. 

Military spending includes many different categories. The largest category is generally operation and maintenance, including military training and planning, maintenance of equipment, and a majority of the military healthcare system. In 2023, $318 billion was spent on military operation and maintenance.

The next biggest spending category is military personnel, which goes toward pay and retirement benefits for service members. About $184 billion was spent on military personnel in 2023. Other military spending categories include acquiring weapons and systems, research and development of weapons and equipment, and smaller categories such as building military facilities and family housing.

Influences on U.S. Military Expenditure

Military spending can be influenced by several factors, such as wars, international tensions, and government expenditures. For example, military spending dropped significantly during the 1990s after the end of the Cold War before increasing again in the 2000s because of the War on Terror and wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.  

A shift in government priorities can affect military spending. After the Budget Control Act of 2011 was passed, military spending decreased, placing annual limits on defense spending—although these limits no longer exist.

Due to the U.S.’s involvement in other countries’ economic and political landscape, humanitarian aid and development in other countries can further affect future military spending decisions. 

Advancements in science and technology influence military spending, too. Developments in medical research, artificial intelligence, and new technologically advanced military systems affect defense spending. The Defense Appropriations Act for FY 2024 approved $21.43 billion in funding for science and technology, about $3.6 billion above the budget requested by the DOD. The bill also included more than $100 million over the requested amount for adopting artificial intelligence.

Economic Impact of U.S. Military Spending

The U.S. government has historically used a combination of methods to help fund wars including increasing taxes, pulling back on non-military spending, debt, and managing the money supply. All of these methods have affected the economy in various ways.

For example, WWII and the post-9/11 wars were largely funded by debt, whereas the Korean and Vietnam wars were financed by increasing taxes and inflation. One common thread between the wars, however, is that they increased pressure on inflation. Though inflation can be useful for reducing debt, the overall effects harm the economy and cause issues such as eroding purchasing power and reducing international competitiveness.

Military spending can also spur technological growth and innovation, creating demand and new jobs. However, some argue that defense spending on military research can divert talent away from other industries. High levels of military spending during WWII helped end unemployment and even increased income distribution. However, consumption and investment decreased because of resource redirection to the war effort. 

While military spending has had some positive effects over the years, the macroeconomic effects of military spending on major U.S. wars have been largely negative, according to an analysis by the Institute of Economics and Peace. War financing through debt, taxation, or inflation puts pressure on taxpayers, reduces private-sector consumption, and decreases investment.

U.S. Military Spending Relative to GDP

It’s important to note that while current U.S. military spending is higher than at any point of the Cold War (when adjusted for inflation), it is still low when considering defense spending as a percentage of the country’s GDP. The DOD has requested $850 billion in spending for 2025, which is about 3% of the GDP—that’s relatively low compared to other times in U.S. history. Looking at military spending in terms of GDP reveals that the U.S. economy has generally grown faster than military spending, so its share of the GDP has been lower. Military spending in the U.S. increased by 62% between 1980 and 2023, from $506 billion to $820 billion after adjusting for inflation. However, military spending still trails behind overall federal spending, which increased 175% over the same period.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. spends more on its military than any other country. The government has financed major wars by increasing taxes and debt and adjusting the money supply. Although military spending has reduced unemployment and has led to new developments in technology, the financing methods have increased inflationary pressures, causing negative long-term effects such as decreased purchasing power.

The larger macroeconomic consequences of large-scale military spending have included issues such as higher taxes, inflation, and larger government budget deficits.

The Hind Rajab Foundation has filed a criminal complaint to a court in Chile, seeking the prosecution of an Israeli Ukrainian who was an Israeli sniper in Gaza. Lucia Newman investigates his role in the deaths in Gaza.

UN warns that Israel’s plan will lead to widespread dispossession of Palestinian land in the occupied West Bank.

More than 80 United Nations member states have condemned Israel’s plan to expand control over the occupied West Bank and claim large tracts of Palestinian territory as Israeli “state property”.

“We strongly condemn unilateral Israeli decisions and measures aimed at expanding Israel’s unlawful presence in the West Bank,” Palestinian Ambassador to the UN Riyad Mansour said on Tuesday, speaking on behalf of the coalition of 85 member states and several international organisations.

“Such decisions are contrary to Israel’s obligations under international law and must be immediately reversed. We underline in this regard our strong opposition to any form of annexation,” Mansour said.

“We reiterate our rejection of all measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Palestinian territory occupied since 1967, including East Jerusalem,” he said.

“Such measures violate international law, undermine the ongoing efforts for peace and stability in the region, run counter to the Comprehensive Plan and jeopardise the prospect of reaching a peace agreement ending the conflict”, he added.

The Comprehensive Plan is a November agreement between Israel and Hamas to end Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, which includes a halt to Israel’s illegal settlement activity in the occupied West Bank.

Signatories to the joint statement on Tuesday include Australia, Canada, China, France, Pakistan, Russia, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye , the United Arab Emirates, the European Union, the League of Arab States and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation.

The joint statement follows Israel’s decision to implement land registration in Section C of the West Bank for the first time since 1967, when Israel began its occupation of Palestinian territory.

Section C makes up about 60 percent of the West Bank’s territory, according to the illegal settlement monitoring organisation Peace Now.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, earlier this week, warned that Israel’s land registration plan could lead to the “dispossession of Palestinians of their property and risks expanding Israeli control over land in the area”.

Guterres warned that the process could be both “destabilising” and unlawful, citing a landmark 2024 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that stated Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is unlawful and must end.

Israel’s “abuse of its status as the occupying power” renders its “presence in the occupied Palestinian territory unlawful”, the ICJ said in its ruling.

“Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and the regime associated with them, have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law,” the court added.

According to the ICJ, approximately 465,000 Israeli settlers live in the occupied West Bank, spread across some 300 settlements and outposts, which are illegal under international law.

Separately on Tuesday, a 13-year-old Palestinian child was killed, and two other children were seriously injured, in the occupied West Bank’s central Jordan Valley area by ammunition discarded by the Israeli military, the Palestinian Wafa news agency reported.

The injured children, aged 12 and 14, are receiving treatment in hospital, Wafa said.

Feb. 17 (UPI) — Oil prices climbed on Tuesday as Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping path, to conduct military drills.

Fars, an Iranian news agency, cited “security precautions” as the reason for the closure, with no indication of when the Strait of Hormuz will fully open again.

About 13 million barrels of crude oil were transported through the strait each day in 2025, making up about 31% of oil shipments by sea. It is the main seaborne export route for Middle Eastern oil shipping to Asia.

Iranian naval forces began the drill “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz,” on Monday.

The drill involves deploying drones capable of striking aerial and maritime targets and is “focused on enhancing operational readiness, strengthening deterrence, and reinforcing multilayered defense,” Fars reported.

Tuesday is the first time that Tehran has closed any part of the Strait of Hormuz since President Donald Trump threatened military action against Iran in response to the killings of protesters.

The United States has posted warships on the Indian Ocean as Trump attempts to negotiate with Iran to scale back its nuclear program.

The United States and Iran held a second round of negotiations in Geneva on Tuesday. Trump was not present for those negotiations but said he would participate “indirectly.”

Islamabad, Pakistan – The sister of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has told Al Jazeera that the family has rejected a government board’s claims that the cricketer-turned-politician’s eyesight has improved since a court report last week said he had lost most vision in one eye.

A government-appointed medical board examining the jailed ex-leader reported a significant improvement in his eyesight after weeks of controversy over his deteriorating vision. Its medical report, seen by Al Jazeera, claims that Khan’s vision in his right eye has improved from 6/36 to 6/9. His left eye remains at 6/6 vision with the use of glasses.

In ophthalmic terms, 6/6 vision means the person’s eyesight is fine. A 6/9 reading means the person can see at 6 metres (20 feet) what someone with normal vision sees at 9 metres (30 ft).

The assessment was carried out on Sunday by a two-member board comprising doctors Nadeem Qureshi and Muhammad Arif Khan. The specialists conducted a detailed examination at Adiala jail in Rawalpindi, where the 73-year-old founder of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party has been imprisoned since August 2023.

But Khan’s family said it had “no trust” in the authorities.

His sister, Aleema Khan, described it as “extremely concerning and unacceptable” that the government had resisted allowing Khan’s personal doctor and a family representative to be present during the examination and treatment.

“Without the physical presence of both his personal doctor and family representative, we categorically reject any claims made by the government regarding his examination, treatment or medical condition,” Aleema told Al Jazeera.

Aasim Yusuf, chief medical officer of the Imran Khan-founded Shaukat Khanum Memorial Hospital and one of Khan’s personal physicians, said in a video message that he had held a 40-minute conversation with the two doctors who examined Khan on February 15.

In the video, shared by the PTI on social media, Yusuf said the visiting doctors briefed him on the treatment and future plan of care, adding that according to their latest assessment, “Khan had shown significant improvement as a result of treatment and his vision had improved significantly as well”.

“I would be extremely happy if I was able to confirm that this was the case. Unfortunately, because I have not seen him myself and have not been able to participate in his care or to talk to him, I am unable to either confirm or deny the veracity of what we have been told,” Yusuf said.

Disputed diagnosis

The latest examination comes after reports last month that authorities had taken Khan late at night to a government facility for a medical procedure without informing his family. Following the outcry, Pakistan’s Supreme Court appointed Barrister Salman Safdar as amicus curiae to meet Khan and assess his condition.

In a seven-page report filed last week, Safdar painted a troubling picture. He wrote that Khan had suffered rapid and substantial vision loss over the past three months and that despite repeated complaints of persistent blurred and hazy vision, “no action was taken by the jail authorities to address these complaints”.

Safdar quoted Khan as saying that “only 15 percent” vision remained in his right eye.

PTI General Secretary Salman Akram Raja told reporters in Islamabad on Monday that the two doctors, one of whom was recommended after consultations with Yusuf, confirmed that Khan’s vision had improved.

“The two doctors who met him in jail said that Khan confirmed to them that he was unable to see the clock on the wall for a few weeks, [but] can now not only see that, but also the clock hands. According to doctors, this was an incredible improvement in his vision,” Raja said.

Aleema, however, insisted that the family could not accept any medical report until Khan’s physician examined him in person. She renewed the demand that he be transferred to Shifa International Hospital in Islamabad.

She accused the government of repeatedly misleading the family about Khan’s health.

“After our protest and Salman Safdar’s report, we were told that he would be taken to Shifa International Hospital, along with [the] presence of his physician as well as a family member, but then, abruptly, they [the government] changed the plan. How can we be suddenly denied?” she asked.

Aleema said authorities had asked the family to provide the names of doctors and relatives who could accompany Khan, only to reject each proposal.

“There have been repeated back-and-forth phone calls. We gave them the names of his personal doctors, including Dr Aasim. Another name we gave was our sister, Uzma Khan, to represent the family. But the response from the government was that no sister will be allowed to meet him,” she claimed.

She added that her brother had no underlying medical conditions, such as diabetes or high blood pressure, and described him as a political prisoner.

“Our hearts are breaking, and we are so frustrated. This is deliberate. When Salman Safdar went there and came back, he told us the story, and we cried hearing about Khan’s current situation. This is not just criminal negligence, this is outright criminal and deliberate,” she said.

Standoff over medical access

The PTI and its allies, who are holding a sit-in outside parliament, have promised to continue their protest until their demands are met, including access to Khan and his transfer to Shifa International Hospital.

Sheikh Waqas Akram, the party’s central information secretary, said the demand was straightforward and focused on securing “specialised treatment” for Khan.

“When you deny the family access, or the physicians recommended by the family, and when you break promises, how can we trust? We don’t even know what they have done with him. We believe the government is certainly hiding something,” he told Al Jazeera.

Aleema said she would hold a news conference on Tuesday outside Adiala jail and added that the family had not sought any concessions from authorities beyond medical access.

“Imran’s sons have been trying to visit Pakistan since last year and have applied several times, but their visa has not been processed. It is in limbo, they do not get a denial, nor an approval,” she said, referring to Kasim and Suleman, Khan’s two sons, who are nationals of the United Kingdom.

The sons were born during Khan’s first marriage to Jemima Goldsmith. The couple divorced in 2004 after nine years of marriage. Both sons are based in London.

Government rejects negligence claims

The government, meanwhile, has defended the medical board’s work. Law Minister Azam Nazeer Tarar said the treatment provided to Khan had led to improvement and that the specialist team had expressed satisfaction with his progress.

Speaking at a public event on Monday, Tarar said opposition leaders and Khan’s personal doctors had been briefed.

Minister for Parliamentary Affairs Tariq Fazal Chaudhry also said the examination inside the jail was conducted “in accordance with government directives and with complete transparency”.

“The government provided every necessary facility on site to ensure no question of any negligence arises,” Chaudhry wrote on social media, adding that Gohar Ali Khan, the PTI chairman in Khan’s absence, had been kept informed.

Imran Khan, a former Pakistan cricket captain who led Pakistan to its 1992 World Cup victory, became prime minister in 2018.

He was removed in 2022 through a parliamentary no-confidence vote, which he said was orchestrated by the military in collusion with Washington and his political rivals. Both the military and the United States have denied the allegations.

Since his ouster, Khan has blamed Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir for his legal and political troubles and has repeatedly urged supporters to protest.

In June 2024, a United Nations Working Group on Arbitrary Detention concluded that Khan’s detention “had no legal basis and appears to have been intended to disqualify him from running [for] political office”.