Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of Libyan former leader, killed
Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, has been killed in Libya, Al Jazeera Arabic reports.
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Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, son of former Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi, has been killed in Libya, Al Jazeera Arabic reports.
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Sudanese military officials say they’ve broken through a siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group of the South Kordofan capital of Kadugli. It’s the military’s second major advance in the Kordofan region in less than a week.
Published On 3 Feb 20263 Feb 2026
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The TWZ Newsletter
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Jordan on Monday became the latest Arab nation to proclaim that it won’t let its territory be used in a war against Iran. Last week, we noted that Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also told the White House that their bases and airspace will be off limits for any attack on Iran. These decisions, if they hold, could greatly affect how the U.S. conducts any offensive actions against Iran. Meanwhile, reports have emerged that the U.S. and Iran might hold talks in Turkey on Friday. More on that later in this story.
“I held a phone call with His Excellency the Iranian Foreign Minister, Dr. Abbas Araghchi, discussing the situation in the region and the efforts being made to de-escalate tensions,” Jordan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi explained on X. “I emphasized the necessity of adopting dialogue and diplomacy as the path to reaching a peaceful resolution for the nuclear issue and ending the tension. I also reaffirmed Jordan’s steadfast position on the necessity of respecting the sovereignty of states, and that Jordan will not be a battlefield for any party in any regional conflict, or a launchpad for any military action against Iran, and it will confront with all its capabilities any attempt to breach its airspace and threaten the safety of our citizens.”
بحثت مع معالي وزير الخارجية الإيراني الدكتور عباس عراقجي في إتصال هاتفي الأوضاع في المنطقة والجهود المبذولة لخفض التصعيد. أكدت ضرورة اعتماد الحوار والدبلوماسية سبيلا للتوصل لحل سلمي للملف النووي وإنهاء التوتر. كما أكدت موقف الأردن الثابت في ضرورة احترام سيادة الدول، وأن الأردن لن…
— Ayman Safadi (@AymanHsafadi) February 2, 2026
Such a move could further limit Trump’s military options in the region. Muwaffaq Salti, in central Jordan, has been a critical base housing U.S. tactical jets and other aviation assets for years. F-15E Strike Eagles based there played a key role in defending against a massive Iranian missile and drone barrage on Israel in April 2024. Over the past few weeks, Muwaffaq Salti has also seen an influx of at least 12 additional F-15E Strike Eagles and air defense systems amid mounting pressures with Iran. These join F-15Es already there, as well as A-10 Thunderbolt II close support jets and possibly American F-16 Vipers. Taking these assets out of the fight, or not allowing overflights by other aircraft, reduces the U.S. and allies’ ability to strike targets in Iran. It is unlikely to factor into the possibility of defending against the large number of missiles and drones Iran could fire in retaliation for any attack.
There is also the possibility that his statements are for consumption by a home audience wary of war with Iran, especially if that means fighting on the side of the Israelis. It’s also possible that messaging is intended to keep them from being struck by Iran in a massive retaliatory strike, but U.S. access to basing and airspace may be clandestinely allowed, even if to a limited degree. We just don’t know. Regardless, these are possibilities we suggested after Saudi Arabia and UAE made their comments about not getting involved.

As we predicted, a flight of six E/A-18 Growlers landed at the Jordanian base on Jan. 31. They arrived after a journey from Puerto Rico, where they had taken part in the operation to capture Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro. You can read more about what the Growlers would bring to the table for any conflict with Iran here.
The U.S. is sending additional Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) systems to the Middle East for increased protection from any Iranian attack, The Wall Street Journal reported. Now the flight appears to be heading from Kadena Air Base in Japan, which has an air defense unit operating Patriots. Online flight trackers suggest that the cargo jets are moving some of that equipment to the Middle East.
U.S. air defenses are far more limited in capacity than many realize and we have seen these exact kinds of reshuffling of assets unfold prior to a crisis erupting multiple times before in the region. You can read more about the limited supply of Patriot and THAAD batteries in our past report here and what measures are being taken to at least begin to rectify this problem here. Just how much airlift work it is to move these batteries around is pretty daunting in itself.
US Air Force C-17A Globemaster III #AE07FD as RCH850 is en route to Isa AB, Bahrain (OBBS) from Spangdahlem AB, Germany (ETAD).
This aircraft picked up its cargo in Kadena AB, Japan (RODN) on the 31st.
Similar to what we saw last spring, it appears that air defenses are being… pic.twitter.com/kW96WyKL2T
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) February 2, 2026
#USAF United States Air Force – Middle East Activity
2 February 2026 – 1320zU.S. Air Force Airlifter activity appears to be shifting from Robert Gray Army Airfield (Fort Hood) to Kadena Air Base, Japan. There are currently six in-progress flights originating from Kadena, and… https://t.co/OuXPiP0gGI pic.twitter.com/gPixbzKJgx
— Armchair Admiral 🇬🇧 (@ArmchairAdml) February 2, 2026
There also appears to be a flight of six Vermont Air National Guard F-35A stealth fighters headed to the region. The jets moved east from the Caribbean, where they also took part in the Maduro capture. We were the first to report that they landed in Lajes, Portugal, and were possibly slated to head to Jordan. However, the F-35s were diverted to Rota, Spain, and it remains unclear when they will leave or where they will go.
Even if the F-35s are bound for the East, there still has not been the kind of influx of tactical aviation needed to sustain any operation of scale. There also doesn’t appear to be any immediate bolstering of aircraft at Diego Garcia, as we have seen in prior tensions with Iran and its Houthi proxies in Yemen.
Recent satellite imagery shows three Air Force KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling jets, a Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol jet, and perhaps two Air Force Special Operations Command MC-130J Commando IIs. Satellite imagery from today shows many of these assets have moved on or were on missions away from the base, with just what appeared to be a pair of P-8s and a heavy airlifter, possibly a C-5, present. However, the buildup at the Indian Ocean island could accelerate at any time.
Activity at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean is heating up showing 3 US Air Force KC-135 Stratotankers, a US Navy P-8A Poseidon and 2 possible MC-130J Commando IIs.
A P-8 was deployed there for the majority of the summer while USAF B-2s idled nearby.
Diego is a used by DoD on a… https://t.co/SSSfYQM6wP
— TheIntelFrog (@TheIntelFrog) February 1, 2026
Complicating the move of materiel to the Middle East, a KC-46 Pegasus aerial refueling tanker reportedly suffered a mishap at Moron Air Base in Spain. That jet was one of several refuelers scheduled to gas up the F-35s as they flew east. Videos emerged showing the crew aborting the flight shortly after.
The Pegasus appears to still be on the runway, which has backed up logistics. We have reached out to U.S. Air Forces Europe-Air Force Africa (USAFE) for more details about the mishap, the status of the aircraft, and the extent to which this is causing delays in getting military supplies to the Middle East.
The buildup of naval forces continues as well. Late last week, the Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Bulkeley arrived in the eastern Mediterranean, a U.S. Navy official told us, joining the Arleigh Burke class USS Roosevelt in that body of water. The destroyers can serve as air and missile defense pickets against incoming Iranian missiles.
Last week, we were the first to report that the Arleigh Burke class guided missile destroyer USS Delbert D. Black arrived in the Red Sea, becoming the 10th ship in the CENTCOM region. It joins the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its three escort Arleigh Burkes, two independently deployed Arleigh Burkes, and three Littoral Combat Ships. You can read more about these moves and what they could mean for a possible attack on or from Iran in our story here.
Israel’s IDF said today that “a joint exercise was conducted between a U.S. Navy destroyer and Israeli Navy vessels. The drill was held as part of the ongoing cooperation between the Israeli Navy and the U.S. 5th Fleet in the Red Sea arena. The destroyer docked at the port as… pic.twitter.com/Nl1XlYJJRA
— Seth Frantzman (@sfrantzman) February 2, 2026
Many Middle East developments over the past week as the U.S. military buildup continues:
– Additional strike assets en route (F-35As in Rota, EA-18Gs in CENTCOM)
– NSA Bahrain cleared out: all forward-deployed ships (LCS, USCG) got underway
– Deploying THAAD battery + Patriots
-… pic.twitter.com/PwRC7bXCwb— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) February 2, 2026
The exact position of the Lincoln CSG is unclear at the moment; however, the Iranians have been flying one of their drones over the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf of Oman to surveil U.S. warships in the region.
✈️ An IRGC drone identified as SEP2501, continues its mission to conduct live monitoring of the U.S. Navy fleet in the Sea of Oman.
Additionally, it was reported that last night also an IRGC drone was deployed over the Arabian Sea to observe U.S. Navy activities. #Iran #US pic.twitter.com/re7vCTJ9X7— IWN (@A7_Mirza) February 2, 2026
While a lot of aircraft are heading toward the Middle East, it looks like there is one less E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node (BACN) jet in the region. Last week, it was reported that a BACN was heading to Souda Air Base in Crete, a common route for deployments to the Middle East. However, flight trackers reported that another E-11A forward deployed to the Middle East has left.
There may be another E-11A heading to the Middle East now, though it is too early to say just where it might end up.
USAF: E 11A BACN 22 9047 BLKWF01 now heading east.
The E 11A it acts as an airborne communications relay, linking aircraft and other forces pic.twitter.com/HrQlyfoMxb
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) February 2, 2026
E-11As are highly specialized communications gateway nodes. You can find out more about BACN and its history in this past War Zone feature. It’s also worth mentioning that the BACNs spent many years exclusively deployed to the Middle East during the Global War on Terror.
Trump on Monday told reporters that talks with Iran were ongoing
“We have ships heading to Iran right now, big ones … and we have talks going on with Iran,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We’ll see how it works out.”
Washington and Tehran are also still working toward negotiations. White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi “are expected to meet on Friday in Istanbul together with representatives of several Arab and Muslim countries to discuss a possible nuclear deal,” Axios reported, citing sources. The talks, if they happen, mark a rare face-to-face exchange between the two sides in the wake of President Donald Trump’s threats against the Iranian regime.
The U.S. leader demands that Iran end its nuclear program and ship its enriched uranium out of the country, limit its ballistic missile capabilities, and sever ties with armed proxies in the Middle East. In return, the United States will not attack Iran and remove crippling sanctions.
The Istanbul summit “will focus on trying to put together a package deal that prevents war. The official stressed the Trump administration hopes Iran will come to the meeting ready to make the needed compromises,” Axios added.
Iran’s foreign ministry says it is reviewing the terms for resuming talks with the United States, after both sides signal readiness to revive diplomacy over the nuclear issue.
Iran’s foreign ministry says it is reviewing the terms for resuming talks with the United States, after both sides signal readiness to revive diplomacy over the nuclear issue.#Iran #US pic.twitter.com/sR7iIkbC5W
— Al Arabiya English (@AlArabiya_Eng) February 2, 2026
Iran may even agree to suspend or shut down its nuclear program to ease tensions, The New York Times reported.
Iran is willing to suspend or shut down its nuclear program to ease tensions, but prefers a U.S.-backed plan for a regional nuclear power consortium.
Officials said Ali Larijani recently delivered a message from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Vladimir Putin, offering to send Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/5WvOKgyw1J
— Clash Report (@clashreport) February 2, 2026
Though they have expressed a willingness to negotiate, the Iranians have thrown up a major roadblock. Top Khamenei advisor Ali Shamkhani stated that Iran will not ship its stockpile of enriched uranium out of the country. That stance, if it holds, could render discussions moot.
First Ali Bagheri, Larijani’s deputy at the SNSC, and now Ali Shamkhani, Khamenei’s representative on the Defense Council, says #Iran‘s regime will not ship its stockpile of enriched uranium out of Iranian soil. If this is the Iranian position, the talks will be over before they… https://t.co/fS7cCd4XCi
— Jason Brodsky (@JasonMBrodsky) February 2, 2026
One reason Iran may be open to talks is that it is “increasingly worried a U.S. strike could break its grip on power by driving an already enraged public back onto the streets, following a bloody crackdown on anti-government protests,” Reuters reported, citing six current and former officials. “In high-level meetings, officials told Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei that public anger over last month’s crackdown — the bloodiest since the 1979 Islamic Revolution — has reached a point where fear is no longer a deterrent.”
The unrest began in Iran on Dec. 28 over rising prices and a devalued currency that saw the rial crater now to basically nothing, as well as a devastating drought. The ongoing harsh treatment from the regime fanned the flames. By some estimates, as many as 30,000 protestors have been killed.
Khamenei is blaming the massive uprising against him on Trump, who last month urged that the protests continue and said, “help is on its way.“
“The fact that we call the recent sedition #American Sedition is not just because of the complex hidden security information; what makes it clear that this was an American move is the statements of the President of the United States himself,” he stated on X. “First, he referred to the few thousand rioters as the people of Iran. Then he said, ‘Go forward, go forward, I’m coming!’”
اینکه به فتنه اخیر میگوییم #فتنه_آمریکایی، فقط بخاطر اطلاعات امنیتی مخفی پیچیده نیست؛ آنچه واضح میکند این حرکت آمریکایی بود، سخنان خود رئیس جمهور ایالات متحده است.
اولاً که به چندهزار اغتشاشگر میگفت مردم ایران. بعد هم گفت بروید جلو، بروید جلو من دارم میآیم!— KHAMENEI.IR | فارسی (@Khamenei_fa) February 1, 2026
Meanwhile, the rhetoric from Khamenei’s military leaders continues to be heated.
The Islamic Republic “is fully prepared to confront and give a revengeful blow to the enemy, in case of any military mischief against the country’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Chairman of the Chief of Staff of Iran’s Armed Forces Major General Abdolrahim Mousavi said, according to official Iranian media. “Escalation in the region will have grave consequences for the US and its allies,” he added, emphasizing that “Iranian forces only think of victory, without any fear of the enemy’s rumbling and apparent arrogance.”
Still, Iranian authorities on Sunday walked back announced plans for live-fire exercises in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.
“The naval forces of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have no plan to carry out as reported by some media outlets earlier this week,” an Iranian official told the news outlet.
The walkback happened after U.S. Central Command issued a warning to Iran over the exercise.
“CENTCOM will ensure the safety of U.S. personnel, ships, and aircraft operating in the Middle East,” the command stated on X. “We will not tolerate unsafe IRGC actions including overflight of U.S. military vessels engaged in flight operations, low-altitude or armed overflight of U.S. military assets when intentions are unclear, highspeed boat approaches on a collision course with U.S. military vessels, or weapons trained at U.S. forces.”
In Jerusalem, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said his country remains on high alert and is prepared for a strike from Iran.
Israel “is ready for every scenario,” Netanyahu said in a speech to the Knesset in response to Iranian threats. “Whoever attacks us will face unbearable consequences.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu on Iran: “There are still challenges ahead of us. Whoever attacks us will bear consequences that are unbearable for them.” pic.twitter.com/u8dzYT9nEa
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) February 2, 2026
While Trump has shown a willingness to negotiate, it should be noted that the White House was in talks with Iran ahead of last June’s Operation Midnight Hammer attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons facilities. It remains to be seen whether a new round of face-to-face negotiations takes place, but the buildup for a potential conflict does not seem to be stopping.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
Moscow ‘strongly condemns’ attack on airport in the capital, Niamey, where 20 rebels were killed, and four soldiers were wounded.
Russian soldiers helped repel an attack claimed by the ISIL (ISIS) armed group on Niger’s main airport in the capital, Niamey, last week, according to Moscow’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
“The attack was repelled through the joint efforts of the Russian Ministry of Defence’s African Corps and the Nigerien armed forces,” Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Monday.
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Niger’s governing military earlier said that “Russian partners” had helped to fend off the rare assault on the capital, which saw 20 attackers, including a French national, killed and four army soldiers wounded.
At least 11 fighters were also captured, Niger’s state television reported.
“Moscow strongly condemns this latest extremist attack,” the Foreign Ministry added in the statement, according to Russia’s state TASS news agency.
“A similar attack took place in September 2024 on the international airport in the capital of Mali. According to available information, external forces providing instructor and technical support are involved,” the ministry said, according to TASS.
Niger’s military chief, Abdourahamane Tchiani, visited the Russian military base in Niamey to express “personal gratitude for a high-level of professionalism” by Russian forces in defending the airport, the ministry added.
ISIL claimed responsibility for the “surprise and coordinated attack” on the airbase at the Diori Hamani international airport near Niamey on the night of January 28.
A video published online through the ISIL-affiliated media Amaq showed several dozen attackers with assault rifles firing near an aircraft hangar and setting ablaze one plane before leaving on motorbikes.
Ulf Laessing, the head of the Sahel programme at Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation, told The Associated Press news agency that the sophistication and boldness of the attack, including the possible use of drones by the attackers, suggest that the assailants may have had inside help.
Previous successful attacks in the region appear to have increased the group’s confidence, leading them to target more sensitive and strategically important sites, Laessing said.
Niger’s military had initially accused Benin, France and the Ivory Coast of sponsoring the attack on the airport, which also houses a military base. The military, however, did not provide evidence to substantiate its claim.
Ivory Coast’s Foreign Ministry denied the allegation and summoned Niger’s ambassador to relay its protest. Benin also denied the claim, describing it as “not very credible”.
France has yet to comment.
Niger is a former colony of France, which maintained a military presence in the country until 2023.
Russia rarely comments on its military activity in the Sahel region, where Moscow has been increasing its influence in recent years.
Facing isolation since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has tried to build new military and political partnerships across Africa.
Apart from Niger, Russian troops or military instructors have been reported to be deployed in Burkina Faso, Equatorial Guinea, the Central African Republic and Libya.
Russia’s African Corps has taken over from the Wagner mercenary force across the continent. According to Moscow, the corps helps ” fighting terrorists” and is “strengthening regional stability” in the Sahel.
Niger’s authorities have been fighting the Al-Qaeda-linked Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the ISIL affiliate in the Sahel (EIS) for the past decade.
These are the key developments from day 1,440 of Russia’s war on Ukraine
Published On 3 Feb 20263 Feb 2026
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Here is where things stand on Tuesday, February 2:
A father and a son have been killed, and two children and their mother were wounded after Russia struck an area in the front line of the Donetsk region, according to regional authorities.
Russia has largely observed a ceasefire on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address on Monday, as Kyiv prepared for the next round of trilateral talks with the US and Russia, expected to begin on Wednesday.
In a separate post on social media, Zelenskyy added that a recent “de-escalation” with Russia – an apparent reference to a brief ceasefire in attacks on energy facilities – was helping to build trust in the negotiations.
Zelenskyy said in separate remarks that it was realistic to achieve a dignified and lasting peace, in advance of the next round of peace talks with Russian and US officials in the United Arab Emirates. He added that a deal on US security guarantees for Ukraine post-war is now “complete”.
Russia would regard the deployment of any foreign military forces or infrastructure in Ukraine as foreign intervention and treat those forces as legitimate targets, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Moscow said, citing Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Indian oil refiners will need a wind-down period to complete Russian oil deals before imports from that country can be halted, Reuters reported after Trump announced a trade agreement with India that included a halt to oil purchases from Russia.
Ukraine’s electricity imports jumped by 40 percent in January 2026 compared with December 2025, hitting a record 894 gigawatt hours amid constant Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy system, which have left millions of people without power and heating, Reuters reported, citing analysts.
Iran has announced that it now considers all European Union militaries to be ‘terrorist groups’. This follows the EU’s terror designation of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over a deadly crackdown on protesters.
Published On 1 Feb 20261 Feb 2026
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Move comes after a European Union decision to label the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps a ‘terrorist organisation’.
Iran has declared European armies “terrorist groups” after a European Union decision to apply the same designation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) over a bloody crackdown on recent protests.
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Sunday the decision was made under “Article 7 of the Law on Countermeasures Against the Declaration of the IRGC as a Terrorist Organisation”.
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“Europeans have in fact shot themselves in the foot and, once again, through blind obedience to the Americans, decided against the interests of their own people,” Ghalibaf said.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced the bloc’s designation of the IRGC on Thursday, saying repression could not “go unanswered”.
“Any regime that kills thousands of its own people is working toward its own demise,” she wrote on social media.
The United States-based Human Rights Activists News Agency says it has confirmed 6,713 deaths during the nationwide protests that began on December 28 over economic grievances but soon evolved into a serious challenge to the government.
Iranian authorities have not announced any official arrest numbers, but said at least 3,117 people were killed during the protests, including 2,427 described as “innocent” protesters or security forces.
Internet and mobile access were cut off by the state across Iran on the night of January 8, during the height of the protests.
The IRGC is a branch of Iran’s military, established after the 1979 Iranian revolution. Operating alongside the regular armed forces, it answers directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and plays a central role in Iran’s defence, foreign operations, and regional influence.
Iran’s retaliatory move came amid weeks of rising tensions, with US President Donald Trump repeatedly threatening military strikes and building up its naval presence in the Middle East. Trump, however, said on Saturday that Iran was “seriously talking” with the US, hours after Iran’s top national security official said arrangements for negotiations were progressing.
Iranian officials have warned that any attack would draw a “comprehensive” response. Tehran has also planned a live-fire military drill for Sunday and Monday in the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Gulf through which a fifth of all oil traded passes.
Meanwhile, the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Sunday said if the US attacked Iran, it would become a regional conflict.
“[Trump] regularly says that he brought ships […] The Iranian nation shall not be scared by these things, the Iranian people will not be stirred by these threats,” Khamenei said.
“We are not the initiators and do not want to attack any country, but the Iranian nation will strike a strong blow against anyone who attacks and harasses them.”
US President Donald Trump says Iran is ‘seriously talking’ with the US and hopes that talks with Tehran will lead to a nuclear deal. Trump also reiterated that he’s sending ‘powerful ships’ to the Gulf.
Published On 1 Feb 20261 Feb 2026
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It says 15 security personnel and 18 civilians were also killed after militants attacked many cities in Pakistan’s province.
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Ali Larijani says efforts to get a framework for negotiations are advancing, as a US naval deployment in the Gulf fuels concerns.
Iran’s top security official has said progress is being made towards negotiations with the United States, even as the Iranian foreign minister again accused Washington of raising tensions between the two countries.
Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said in a social media post on Saturday that, “unlike the artificial media war atmosphere, the formation of a structure for negotiations is progressing”.
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Larijani’s post did not provide further details about the purported framework for talks.
Tensions have been rising between Iran and the US for weeks amid US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to attack the country over a crackdown on recent antigovernment protests, and his push to curtail the Iranian nuclear programme.
The Trump administration has also deployed a naval “armada” to Iran, led by the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, escalating fears of a possible military confrontation.
Senior Iranian leaders have said they are open to negotiations with Washington, but only once Trump stops threatening to attack the country.
Earlier this week, Trump said the US vessels being sent to Iran were ready to use “violence, if necessary” if Iran refused to sit down for talks on its nuclear programme.
US Central Command (CENTCOM) also warned Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on Friday over its plans to hold a two-day naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, a Gulf maritime passage that is critical to global trade.
“Any unsafe and unprofessional behavior near US forces, regional partners or commercial vessels increases risks of collision, escalation, and destabilization,” CENTCOM said in a statement.
Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi hit back on Saturday, saying in a social media post that the US military, operating off Iran’s shores, “is now attempting to dictate how our Powerful Armed Forces should conduct target practice on their own turf”.
“CENTCOM is also requesting ‘professionalism’ from a national military the U.S. Government has listed as a ‘terrorist organization’, all while recognizing the right of that same ‘terrorist organization’ to conduct military drills!” Araghchi wrote.
The US designated the IRGC, an elite branch of the Iranian military, as a “terrorist” organisation in 2019, during Trump’s first term in office.
Araghchi added, “The presence of outside forces in our region has always caused the exact opposite of what is declared: promoting escalation instead of de-escalation”.
Reporting from the Iranian capital, Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Tohid Asadi said the situation remains “quite fragile and delicate” amid the US military buildup in the region.
Still, he said that Saturday’s statement by Larijani, the Iranian security official, about progress being made on efforts to hold negotiations was a “positive” sign.
“Diplomatic [efforts] are [on]going,” Asadi said, noting that senior Iranian officials have held talks with allies in recent days amid a push to prevent a confrontation between Washington and Tehran.
The Qatari Ministry of Foreign Affairs said Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani met with Larajani in Tehran on Saturday to discuss “efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region”.
Sheikh Mohammed reiterated Qatar’s “support for all efforts aimed at reducing tensions and achieving peaceful solutions that enhance security and stability in the region”, the ministry said of the talks in a statement.
“He also stressed the need for concerted efforts to spare the peoples of the region the consequences of escalation and to continue coordination with brotherly and friendly countries to address differences through diplomatic means,” the statement added.
Israel says it will reopen the Rafah crossing on Sunday after nearly two years — but only for restricted, tightly controlled movement of people. Humanitarian aid remains barred. Al Jazeera’s Hani Mahmoud reports from Rafah as Israel retains full security control.
Published On 30 Jan 202630 Jan 2026
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After several years of suspension, political parties in Burkina Faso have been formally dissolved by the military government, which has also seized all their assets in a move analysts say is a major blow for democracy in the West African nation.
In a decree issued on Thursday, the government, led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, scrapped all laws which established and regulated political parties, accusing them of failing to comply with guidelines.
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The troubled West African nation is struggling with violence from armed groups linked to ISIL (ISIS) and al-Qaeda. It is one of a growing number of West and Central African nations to have undergone coups in recent years.
Traore seized power in September 2022, eight months after an earlier military coup had already overthrown the democratically elected President Roch Marc Kabore.
Despite strong criticism by rights groups and opposition politicians of his authoritarian approach, 37-year-old Traore has successfully built up an online cult-like following among pan-Africanists, with many likening him to the late Burkinabe revolutionary leader, Thomas Sankara.
Traore’s anti-colonial and anti-imperial pronouncements are often shown in high-definition, AI-generated videos that have gained him widespread admiration across the internet.
But the decision to ban political parties does not sit well for democracy, Dakar-based analyst Beverly Ochieng of the Control Risks intelligence firm, told Al Jazeera.
“The military government will [remain] highly influential, especially after a recent decree appointing Traore in a supervisory capacity in the judiciary,” Ochieng said, referring to a December 2023 constitutional change which placed courts directly under government control.
Going forward, “there will be very limited division of powers or autonomy across the civic and political space,” Ochieng said, adding that the military government will likely keep extending its stay in power.

The Burkinabe government claims the existing political parties were not following the codes which established them.
In a televised statement following a Council of Ministers meeting on Thursday, when the new decree was approved, Interior Minister Emile Zerbo said the decision was part of a broader effort to “rebuild the state” after alleged widespread abuses and dysfunction in the country’s multiparty system.
A government review, he said, had found that the multiplication of political parties had fuelled divisions and weakened social cohesion in the country.
“The government believes that the proliferation of political parties has led to excesses, fostering division among citizens and weakening the social fabric,” Zerbo said.
He did not give details of the political parties’ alleged excesses.
Before the 2022 coup, which brought the current military leadership to power, Burkina Faso had more than 100 registered political parties, with 15 represented in parliament after the 2020 general elections.
The largest was the ruling People’s Movement for Progress (MPP), which had 56 of 127 seats in parliament. It was followed by the Congress for Democracy and Progress, with 20 seats, and the New Era for Democracy with 13 seats.
But the civilian government faced months of protests as thousands took to the streets to demonstrate against growing insecurity from armed groups in large parts of the country.
In 2022, Traore took power, promising to put an end to violence by armed groups. He also promised the regional Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) bloc that his government would hold elections by 2024.
But political parties were banned from holding rallies after the 2022 coup and, a month before the 2024 deadline, Traore’s government postponed elections to 2029 after holding a national conference, which was boycotted by several political parties.
Burkina Faso, along with Mali and Niger, withdrew from ECOWAS to form the Alliance of Sahel States, a new economic and military alliance in January last year. They also withdrew from the International Criminal Court (ICC).
In July 2025, Traore’s government dissolved the Independent National Electoral Commission, saying the agency was too expensive.

Landlocked Burkina Faso is currently grappling with several armed groups which have seized control of land in the country’s north, south and west, amounting to about 60 percent of the country, according to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS).
The most active groups are the al-Qaeda-backed Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), which also operate in neighbouring Mali and Niger.
The groups want to rule over territory according to strict Islamic laws and are opposed to secularism.

By December 2024, all three Alliance of Sahel States countries had cut ties with former colonial power France and instead turned to Russian fighters for security support after accusing Paris of overly meddling in their countries.
Between them, they expelled more than 5,000 French soldiers who had previously provided support in the fight against armed groups. A smaller contingent of about 2,000 Russian security personnel is now stationed across the three countries.
But violence in Burkina Faso and the larger Sahel region has worsened.
Fatalities have tripled in the three years since Traore took power to reach 17,775 – mostly civilians – by last May, compared with the three years prior, when combined recorded deaths were 6,630, the ACSS recorded.
In September, Human Rights Watch accused JNIM and ISSP of massacring civilians in northern Djibo, Gorom Gorom and other towns, and of causing the displacement of tens of thousands since 2016.
HRW has also similarly accused the Burkinabe military and an allied militia group, Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, of atrocities against civilians suspected of cooperating with armed groups. In attacks on northern Nondin and Soro villages in early 2024, the military killed 223 civilians, including 56 babies and children, HRW said in an April 2024 report.
Mali and Niger have similarly recorded attacks by the armed groups. Malian capital Bamako has been sealed off from fuel supplies by JNIM fighters for months.
On Wednesday night, the Nigerien military held off heavy attacks on the airport in the capital city, Niamey. No armed group has yet claimed responsibility.
Since it took power, the government in Ouagadougou has been accused by rights groups of cracking down on dissent and restricting press and civic freedoms.
All political activities were first suspended immediately after the coup.
In April 2024, the government also took aim at the media, ordering internet service providers to suspend access to the websites and other digital platforms of the BBC, Voice of America and HRW.
Meanwhile, authorities have forced dozens of government critics into military service and sent them to fight against armed groups. Several prominent journalists and judges have been arrested after speaking out against increasingly restrictive rules on press and judiciary freedom.
Abdoul Gafarou Nacro, a deputy prosecutor at the country’s High Court, was one of at least five senior members of the judiciary to be forcibly conscripted and sent to fight armed groups in August 2024 after speaking out against the military government. Nacro’s whereabouts are currently unknown.
In April 2025, three abducted journalists resurfaced in a social media video 10 days after they went missing, in one example. All three – Guezouma Sanogo, Boukari Ouoba, and Luc Pagbelguem – were wearing military fatigues in an apparent forced conscription. They have all since been released.
However, several others, including some opposition politicians, are still missing.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he plans to increase his armed forces’ lethality as part of a strategy to disarm Moscow and turn a deadlocked negotiating table.
“The task of Ukrainian units is to ensure a level of destruction of the occupier at which Russian losses exceed the number of reinforcements they can send to their forces each month,” he told military personnel on Monday.
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“We are talking about 50,000 Russian losses per month, this is the optimal level,” he said.
Video analysis, Zelenskyy recently said, showed 35,000 confirmed kills in December 2025, up from 30,000 in November and 26,000 in October. But on Monday, he clarified that the 35,000 were “killed and badly wounded occupiers”, who would not be returning to the battlefield.
His commander in chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, conservatively estimated “more than 33,000” confirmed kills in December.
Ukraine believes it has killed or maimed 1.2 million Russians since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies recently estimated that Russia had suffered 1.2mn casualties, including at least 325,000 deaths, and Ukraine up to 600,000 casualties, with as many as 140,000 deaths.
Al Jazeera cannot confirm casualty estimates from either side.

The war is currently stalemated, with Russia struggling to make meaningful territorial gains.
Russia held just more than a quarter of Ukraine a month into its full-scale war, in March 2022, according to geolocated footage.
The following month, Ukraine pushed Russian forces back from a string of northern cities – Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernihiv – leaving Russia in possession of one-fifth of the country.
In August and September 2022, then-ground forces commander Syrskii masterminded a campaign to push Russian forces east of the Oskil River in the northern Kharkiv region, and Russia itself withdrew east of the Dnipro River in the southern region of Kherson, leaving it with 17.8 percent of the country.
In the last three years, Russia increased that number to 19.3 percent.
For almost six months, Russia has struggled to seize two towns it has almost surrounded with 150,000 troops in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.
“In Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, the Ukrainian Defence Forces continue to contain the enemy, which is trying to infiltrate the northern districts of both cities in small groups,” Syrskii said last week.
Russia claimed it had captured the northern city of Kupiansk last month, but Russian military reporters say Ukrainian forces have retaken control of the town and surrounded the Russian assault force within it.
Zelenskyy’s strategy involves increasing domestic drone production and honing the skills of drone operators, because drones now hit 80 percent of targets on the battlefield.
“In just the past year alone, 819,737 targets were hit – hit by drones. And we clearly record every single hit,” he said on Monday.
The military has instituted a point system, rewarding drone operators for the number and precision of their hits.
That reflects a system put in place in April 2024, offering financial rewards to ground troops for destroying Russian battlefield equipment, culminating in $23,000 for capturing a battle tank.
Zelenskyy appointed Mykhailo Fedorov as defence minister this month, who previously served as digital transformation minister and deputy prime minister for innovation, education, science and technology.

Last week, Fedorov began to appoint his advisers. They include Serhiy Sternenko, who last year created Ukraine’s largest non-state supplier of military drones, to step up drone production. Fedorov’s former deputy at the digital transformation ministry, Valeriya Ionan, was put in charge of international collaborations, thanks to her experience with Silicon Valley giants like Google and Cisco. Fedorov also appointed Serhiy Beskrestnov as technological adviser. Beskrestnov is an expert on Russian drone and electronic warfare innovation.
Zelenskyy’s war aims stem in part from the fact that Russia refuses to give up its campaign to seize more of Ukraine.
Despite US President Donald Trump’s efforts to bring about a ceasefire, talks remain deadlocked over the future of Donetsk.
Russia’s worst attack against Ukrainian cities and energy facilities last week came on Saturday, involving 375 drones and 21 missiles, as Russian, US and Ukrainian delegations were negotiating a ceasefire in Abu Dhabi.
The strike left 1.2 million homes without power nationwide, including 6,000 in Kyiv.
Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal said 800,000 homes in Kyiv were still without power following three previous strikes this month. “Constant enemy attacks unfortunately keep the situation from being stabilised,” he wrote on social media.

Zelenskyy told Ukrainians in an evening video address that electricity supply problems were still widespread in Kyiv, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro and in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.
“We are scaling up assistance points and warming centers,” he said, adding that 174 [crews] were working to fix the damage in Kyiv alone. Shmyal said 710,000 people were still without power in Kyiv.
A Czech grassroots initiative fundraised $6m to buy hundreds of electric generators for Ukrainian households. On Friday, the European Commission said it was sending 447 generators to Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Russian drones killed three people. Two of them were a young couple in Kyiv killed when a drone struck their apartment building. Rescuers found only their four-year-old daughter alive.
“When I carried her out, the girl started crying very hard, and then she began to shake violently,” said Marian Kushnir, a journalist who was a neighbour of the couple.
At least five more people died when a drone struck a passenger train in the northern Kharkiv region, and two children and a pregnant woman were wounded when 50 drones rained down on the southern port of Odesa.
Talks in Abu Dhabi ended without a ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said before they began that Russia was not willing to compromise on any of its territorial demands.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks were focusing on the nub of disagreement between the two sides, which is Ukraine’s refusal to hand over the remaining one-fifth of Donetsk that Moscow does not control.
Talks are scheduled to continue in Abu Dhabi on Sunday, officials said.
In a scathing speech to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Zelenskyy accused his European allies of “wait-hoping” the Russian threat would disappear after almost four years of war in Ukraine.
“Europe relies only on the belief that if danger comes, NATO will act. But no one has really seen the Alliance in action. If Putin decides to take Lithuania or strike Poland, who will respond?” Zelenskyy asked.
US President Donald Trump’s threat to take Greenland by force on January 17, he said, revealed Europe’s lack of readiness when seven Nordic countries sent 40 soldiers to the island.
“If you send 30 or 40 soldiers to Greenland – what is that for? What message does it send? What’s the message to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin? To China? And even more importantly, what message does it send to Denmark – the most important – your close ally?”

In contrast, said Zelenskyy, Trump was willing to seize Russian tankers selling sanctioned oil, and put Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on drug charges, while Putin, an indicted war criminal, remained free. “No security guarantees work without the US,” he said.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed those sentiments in a speech to the European Parliament on Monday [January 26].
“If anyone thinks here . . . that the European Union or Europe as a whole can defend itself without the US, keep on dreaming,” he said. “You can’t.”
‘They should be ready to hear us roar,’ says military ruler Tiani, who thanked Russian troops for defending airbase.
Niger’s military government has accused France, Benin and Ivory Coast of sponsoring an assault on a military base at Niamey’s international airport, while thanking “Russian partners” for repelling the attack.
General Abdourahamane Tiani, who seized power in a 2023 coup, made his claims on state television on Thursday, blaming France’s President Emmanuel Macron, Benin’s Patrice Talon and Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara. He did not offer any evidence to back up those claims.
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France, Benin and Ivory Coast have not commented on the claims yet.
The military leader made those claims after visiting the airbase at Diori Hamani International Airport, located some 10km (six miles) from the presidential palace, where explosions and shootings were reported on Wednesday night into Thursday.
Defence Minister Salifou Modi said the attack lasted “about 30 minutes”, before an “air and ground response”. The defence ministry said four military personnel were injured and 20 attackers were killed, with state television saying that a French national was among them.
Eleven people were arrested, it added.
“We have heard them bark, they should be ready to hear us roar,” said Tiani in comments that reflected the recent deterioration of Niger’s relations with France and neighbouring nations that he views as French proxies in the region.
Tiani also thanked Russian troops stationed at the base for “defending their sector”, confirming his nation’s growing ties with Moscow, which has provided military support to tackle a rebellion linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL.
Neither of the armed groups has so far claimed responsibility.
Niger has been led by General Tiani since a coup that overthrew the elected civilian president, Mohamed Bazoum, in July 2023.
The country, which is allied with Sahel neighbours Mali and Burkina Faso in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), has struggled to contain the rebellion, which has killed thousands and displaced millions in the three nations.
Interior Minister says multiplication of political parties has fuelled divisions and weakened social cohesion.
Burkina Faso’s military-led government has issued a decree dissolving all political parties that had already been forced to suspend activities after a coup four years ago.
The West African nation’s council of ministers passed the decree on Thursday amid the government’s ongoing crackdown on dissenting voices as it struggles to contain insurgencies linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS).
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Burkina Faso‘s Interior Minister Emile Zerbo said the decision was part of a broader effort to “rebuild the state” after alleged widespread abuses and dysfunction in the country’s multiparty system.
Zerbo said a government review found that the multiplication of political parties had fuelled divisions and weakened social cohesion.
The decree disbands all political parties and political formations, with all their assets now set to be transferred to the state.
Before the coup, the country had more than 100 registered political parties, with 15 represented in parliament after the 2020 general election.
Burkina Faso is led by Captain Ibrahim Traore, who seized power in a coup in September 2022, eight months after an earlier military coup had overthrown democratically elected President Roch Marc Kabore.
The country’s military leaders have cut ties with former colonial ruler France and turned to Russia for security support.
In 2024, as part of its crackdown on dissent, the government ordered internet service providers to suspend access to the websites and other digital platforms of the BBC, Voice of America and Human Rights Watch.
As it turned away from the West, Burkina Faso joined forces with neighbouring Mali and Niger, also ruled by military governments, in forming the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) in a bid to strengthen economic and military cooperation.
Rubio insisted that Caracas needs to have its expenses approved by Washington. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call)
Caracas, January 29, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the Trump administration’s January 3 attack on Venezuela and kidnapping of President Nicolás Maduro during a Senate hearing on Wednesday.
“[Having Maduro in power] was an enormous strategic risk for the United States,“ Rubio said in his testimony to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. “It was an untenable situation, and it had to be addressed.”
The Trump official claimed that the military operation aimed to “aid law enforcement” and did not constitute an act of war. He likewise emphasized the White House’s concern about Venezuela allegedly being a “base of operations” for US geopolitical rivals Iran, Russia, and China.
Rubio faced criticism from multiple senators, with Rand Paul arguing that the White House would consider a similar attack directed against the US as an act of war. Despite widespread criticism from Democrats and a handful of Republicans, efforts to pass War Powers resolutions have been narrowly defeated in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores pleaded not guilty to charges including drug trafficking conspiracy in a New York federal court on January 5. US officials have never presented evidence tying high-ranking Venezuelan leaders to narcotics activities, and specialized agencies have consistently found the Caribbean nation to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.
The Venezuelan government, led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, has repeatedly denounced the US attack and demanded the release of Maduro and Flores. At the same time, Rodríguez and other officials have advocated for renewed diplomatic engagement to settle “differences” with Washington.
The January 3 strikes, which killed 100 people, have drawn widespread condemnation in Latin America and beyond. A recent Progressive International summit in Colombia called for a joint regional response against US aggression.
During Wednesday’s hearing, Rubio reiterated the US government’s plans to control the Venezuelan oil sector and impose conditions on the acting Rodríguez administration. He added that the White House is seeking stability in the South American country ahead of a “democratic transition.”
Rubio additionally confirmed that Washington is administering Venezuelan oil sales, with proceeds deposited in US-controlled bank accounts in Qatar before a portion is rerouted to Caracas. He added that at some point the funds will run through Treasury Department accounts in the United States.
Democratic senators questioned the legality and transparency of the present arrangement. The Secretary of State further claimed that Caracas would need to submit a “budget request” before accessing its funds.
The initial deal reportedly comprised some 50 million barrels of oil, worth around $2 billion, that had accumulated due to a US naval blockade of Venezuelan exports. After a reported $300 million were turned over to Venezuelan private banks last week, the Venezuelan Central Bank announced that a further $200 million will be made available in early February.
Venezuelan banks are offering the foreign currency in auction to customers, with officials vowing priority for imports in the food and healthcare sectors.
According to Reuters, the US Treasury Department is preparing a general license to allow select corporations to engage in oil dealings with Caracas. Since 2017, the Venezuelan oil industry has been under wide-reaching unilateral coercive measures, including financial sanctions, an export embargo, and secondary sanctions.
In his address, Rubio went on to state that Venezuelan authorities “deserve credit for eradicating Chávez-era restrictions on private investment” in the oil industry, in reference to a recent overhaul of the country’s 2001 Hydrocarbons preliminarily approved last week. He added that a portion of oil revenues will be used for imports from US manufacturers.
On Tuesday, Acting President Rodríguez announced during a televised broadcast that Venezuela was importing medical equipment from the US using “unblocked funds.”
The Venezuelan leader emphasized the importance of relations based on mutual respect with the US and rejected claims that her government is subject to dictates from foreign actors. She affirmed that there are open “communication channels” with the Trump administration and collaboration with Rubio on a “working agenda.”
The acting authorities in Caracas have sought to promote a significant rebound of crude production by offering expanded benefits to private investors as part of the reform bill. Expected to be finally approved in the coming weeks, the new law abrogates provisions introduced under former President Hugo Chávez to ensure majority state control over the oil sector in favor of flexible arrangements granting substantial autonomy to corporate partners.
The US has intensified threats against Iran if it doesn’t agree to its demands, as Trump says a ‘massive armada’ is amassing in the region. Al Jazeera’s Virginia Pietromarchi answers key questions on the latest escalation.
China has told the UN Security Council that US ‘military adventurism’ in the Middle East will push the region into chaos, as President Donald Trump continues to threaten strikes on Iran if it does not submit to his demands.
Published On 29 Jan 202629 Jan 2026
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In Dhaka’s political chatter, one word often keeps resurfacing when people debate who really holds the reins of the country: “Kochukhet”.
The neighbourhood that houses key military installations has, in recent public discussions, become shorthand for the cantonment’s influence over civilian matters, including politics.
Bangladesh is weeks away from a national election on February 12, the first since the 2024 uprising that ended then Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s long rule and ushered in an interim administration led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus.
The army is not vying for electoral power. But it has become central to the voting climate as the most visible guarantor of public order, with the police still weakened in morale and capacity after the upheaval of 2024, and with the country still reckoning with a “security apparatus” that watchdogs and official inquiries say was used to shape political outcomes under Hasina.
For nearly a year and a half now, soldiers have policed the streets of Bangladesh, operating under an order that grants them magisterial powers in support of law and order. On election duty, the deployment will scale up further: Officials have said as many as 100,000 troops are expected nationwide, and proposed changes to election rules would formally list the armed forces among the poll’s “law-enforcing agencies”.
Bangladesh, a nation of more than 170 million wedged between India and Myanmar, has repeatedly seen political transitions hijacked by coups, counter-coups and military rule, a past that still shapes how Bangladeshis read the present. Analysts say that the army today is not positioned for an overt takeover, but it remains a decisive power centre: an institution embedded across the state, able to narrow civilian choices through its security role, intelligence networks and footprint inside government.

Thomas Kean, the International Crisis Group’s senior consultant on Bangladesh and Myanmar, said the army has been “backstopping the interim government” not only politically but also “through day-to-day security amid police weakness”.
He said the institution is eager to see a transition to an elected government so the country returns to a firmer constitutional footing and so troops can “return to their barracks”.
“There are different factions and views within the army, but overall I would say that the army wants to see the election take place as smoothly as possible,” Kean told Al Jazeera.
Kean argued that if the army chief, General Waker-uz-Zaman, and the military “had wanted to take power, they could have done so when the political order collapsed on August 5”, the day Hasina fled to India amid a popular student-led revolt. But the military chose not to, he said, in part because it had learned from the fallout of past experiments with its direct political control.
Asif Shahan, a political analyst and professor at Dhaka University, said the military was aware that a takeover would have also jeopardised key interests, including Bangladesh’s United Nations peacekeeping deployments, which carry both financial benefits and reputational weight for the armed forces. Bangladesh has for decades been one of the biggest suppliers to UN peacekeeping missions, and receives between $100m and $500m a year in payouts and equipment reimbursements for these services.
But Shahan argues that the military remains “an important political actor”. Today, he said, its influence is “less about overt intervention than the institutional weight it carries through the security and intelligence apparatus”.
He also pointed to what he called the army’s “corporate” footprint. That footprint spans involvement in major state infrastructure projects, the military’s own business conglomerate, and the presence of serving and retired officers across commercial and state bodies.
Shahan said the last Hasina government “gave them a share of the pie”, leaving “a kind of culture of corruption … ingrained”. He suggested that this could translate into informal pressure on whoever governs next to do the same, and anxieties inside the force over whether “the facilities and privileges” it has accumulated will shrink.
On the election itself, Shahan too said that the possibility of the army trying to gain overt control was “very low” unless there is such a major law and order breakdown that there is public demand for the army to step in as the “only source of stability”,
Others who track the military closely agreed. Rajib Hossain, a former army officer and author of the best-selling book Commando, said he “strongly believes” the army will avoid partisan involvement for its own sake. “The army will play a neutral role during this election,” he said. “What we’ve observed on the ground over the past year and a half, there is no record of the army acting in a partisan way.”
But, he added, pressure on the institution has been intense since 2024. “Internally, there’s an understanding that if the army fails to act neutrally, it could lose even the public credibility it still has,” he said.
Mustafa Kamal Rusho, a retired brigadier general at the Osmani Centre for Peace and Security Studies, also told Al Jazeera that the military does not have “any clear intent” to influence politics, though “it still remains a critical power base”.
That leverage was clearest during the 2024 uprising, Rusho said, when Bangladesh’s political crisis reached a point that many Bangladeshis and international watchdogs viewed the military’s posture as decisive. “If the military did not take the stand that it took, then there would have been more bloodshed,” he said.
With protests escalating, the military refused to fully enforce Hasina’s curfew orders and decided troops would not fire on civilians. It enabled Hasina to flee to India on an air force plane, and the army chief then announced an interim government would be formed.
In an Al Jazeera documentary on the uprising last year, Waker-uz-Zaman, who is related to Hasina and was appointed less than two months before her collapse, also stressed that his forces would not turn their guns on civilians. “We don’t shoot at civilians. It’s not in our culture … So we did not intervene,” he said.
In the same interview, he added: “We believe that the military should not engage in politics … It’s not our cup of tea.”

That hasn’t always been the military’s position.
After the 1975 assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Bangladesh’s founding leader and then-president, by a group of military officers, the country entered a period marked by coups, counter-coups and military rule upheavals that reshaped the state and produced political forces that still dominate elections.
One of them was the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), founded by army general-turned-ruler Ziaur Rahman, who emerged as the country’s most powerful figure in the late 1970s before moving into civilian politics. Rahman was assassinated in 1981 in a failed coup attempt by another group of military officers. The BNP remains a key contender in the February 12 vote, now led by Rahman’s son, Tarique Rahman, who has returned to front-line politics after a long exile.
In 1982, then army chief Hussain Muhammad Ershad seized power and ruled for much of the 1980s. Writer and political historian Mohiuddin Ahmed has described Ershad’s takeover as coming only months after he publicly argued that “the army should be brought in to help run the country”.
Eventually, a pro-democracy movement led by Zia’s wife, Khaleda Zia, and Hasina, also Mujibur Rahman’s daughter, forced him from office. The BNP won a landmark election, and in 1991, Khaleda became the country’s first female prime minister.
Since then, Rusho said, the military’s influence “became more indirect”, though Bangladesh still saw an abortive May 1996 showdown when the then army chief, Lieutenant General Abu Saleh Mohammad Nasim, defied presidential orders, and troops loyal to him moved towards Dhaka. Nasim was arrested and removed from office.
A decade later, in 2007, the military in effect “fully backed” a caretaker government that was formed to replace Khaleda’s second administration, which had ruled between 2001 and 2006. That caretaker government was installed in January 2007 after a breakdown in the election process and escalating political violence. The International Crisis Group described the caretaker administration as “headed by technocrats but controlled by the military”, while then-army chief Moeen U Ahmed argued the political climate “was deteriorating very rapidly” and that the military’s intervention had “quickly ended” street violence.
It was only after 2009, when Hasina came back to power – her Awami League had first ruled between 1996 and 2001 – that the military became “subordinate to the civilian regime”, Rusho said.

But even though the military today insists that it does not want power, it has often drifted into the political terrain.
A major moment arrived just weeks after Hasina’s ouster, in September 2024, when General Zaman told the Reuters news agency he would back Yunus’s interim government “come what may”, while also floating a timeline for elections within 18 months. The interview, which critics described as something unprecedented for a serving army chief, placed the military close to the country’s central political debate.
Hossain, the former army officer and author, criticised the public nature of the intervention. “If he [Zaman] had discussed this after sitting with all the stakeholders … the interim [administration], political parties, protest leaders … and then gone to the media, that would be acceptable,” he said. “But here, he declared it unilaterally and blindsided the government from his position of power. He had no authority to do that.”
“You may say this is an extraordinary, transitional time and the military has a role to play,” Hossain added. “But then, why do we have an administration at all?”
Shahan, the Dhaka University professor, said Zaman “came very close” to crossing the line and explained it as a product of military institutional culture after August 5. “Military organisations … like to follow standing operating procedures, order, stability,” he said. But August 5, he added, was “a political rupture” that forced the army and the nation into uncertainty: about the interim government’s longevity, legitimacy and how it would deal with the military.
Those anxieties, Shahan said, likely pushed Zaman to speak. In principle, he said, it is reasonable for the army chief to say elections are needed for stability. But “when he set a specific timeline – within 18 months – that is beyond his role”, Shahan said. “It then appears as if he is dictating.”
Shahan added that the problem becomes sharper when that kind of specificity appears to respond to a party demand; he was referring to a time when only the Bangladesh Nationalist Party was repeatedly pushing for a vote timetable.
Eight months later, in May 2025, Zaman again weighed in, telling a high-level military gathering, according to local media reports, that his position had not changed and that the next national vote should be held by December 2025. After that, Faiz Ahmad Taiyeb, a special adviser to Yunus, wrote on Facebook that “the army can’t meddle in politics” and argued that the military chief had failed to maintain “jurisdictional correctness” by prescribing an election deadline.
Around the same period, rumours emerged suggesting that Yunus had considered resigning amid political discord.

Another reason that analysts say the military’s role is being debated so intensely now is because of Bangladesh’s recent wounds.
During Hasina’s 15-year rule, human rights organisations argued Bangladesh’s security apparatus was often used for political control. Human Rights Watch has described enforced disappearances as a “hallmark” of Hasina’s rule since 2009.
When the United States sanctioned the Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) in 2021 over allegations of extrajudicial killings, the US Department of the Treasury said, “These incidents target opposition party members, journalists, and human rights activists.” Critics argue that security institutions became central to governance, and questions about how that machinery was used are now part of the post-Hasina political settlement.
Hossain, the former officer, said the Hasina-era legacy still echoes inside the top brass. “If you look at the leadership, the general, five lieutenant generals, and some major generals and brigadier generals, a lot of them were part of Hasina’s apparatus,” he said, “aside from a handful of professional officers”.
A report by Bangladesh’s Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances says disappearances were used as a “tool for political repression” and that the practice “reached alarming levels during key political flashpoints”, including in the run-up to elections in 2014, 2018 and 2024. The commission said it verified 1,569 cases of enforced disappearance.
In cases where political affiliation could be confirmed, the Jamaat-e-Islami and its student wing accounted for about 75 percent of victims, while the BNP and its affiliated groups accounted for about 22 percent. Among those “still missing or dead”, the BNP and its allies accounted for about 68 percent, while the Jamaat and its affiliates accounted for about 22 percent, the report said.
The commission also noted that the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), the military-run intelligence agency, had been “accused of manipulating domestic politics and interfering in the 2014 parliamentary elections”, and argued that perceived alignment with the Awami League compromised its neutrality.
Several senior military officers, including 15 in service, are now facing trial in a civilian tribunal on charges of enforced disappearances, murders and custodial tortures.
The proceedings have become a delicate issue in civil-military relations, as cases against serving officers in civilian courts are rare in Bangladesh’s history.
Former army chief Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan wrote on Facebook that local media had reported disagreements over the “trial process” for officers accused of crimes against humanity and that those disagreements had created what he described as a “chasm” between the interim government and the army’s top leadership.
Hossain, the former officer, however, said he disagreed. “These trials are not defaming the army,” Hossain said. “Rather, they are a kind of redemption for the institution to recover from the stigma created by the crimes of some self-serving officers.”
He argued that accountability could motivate younger officers and reduce the risk of the military being politically exploited again. Rusho, the retired brigadier general, also argued that politicisation under Hasina was driven less by formal doctrine than by executive control over careers.
“Promotions, important postings, placements … they were influenced considerably by the executive branch,” he said. “When you influence postings, some people’s loyalty often gets diverted to political masters, [and] it affects … professionalism and capability.”
Kean of the International Crisis Group said the real test for Bangladesh now would be whether it can stop the security state from being reabsorbed into partisan politics.
“The military is going to remain a powerful institution in Bangladesh, with a level of influence in domestic politics,” he said. “One hopes that the lesson of the past 18 months is that the military is better to support civilian administrations rather than be in power directly – that it can be a stabilising force, and one that is ultimately committed to democracy and civilian leadership.”
But, he added, the onus to do that isn’t only on the generals. Civilian politicians, too, needed to resist the temptation to misuse the military. That alone, he suggested, would help Bangladesh keep the army in the barracks and politicians accountable to the people, not to men in khakis.
These are the key developments from day 1,435 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Here is where things stand on Thursday, January 29:

Jan. 28 (UPI) — Deploying National Guard and other military troops in U.S. cities cost taxpayers nearly $500 million in the second half of 2025, the Congressional Budget Office reported Wednesday.
The cost breakdown includes the cost to activate, deploy and pay National Guard personnel; related operational, logistical and sustainment costs; and other direct and indirect costs of deploying National Guard and other military units, such as the U.S. Marine Corps, the CBO report shows.
Since June, the CBO said the Trump administration deployed National Guard troops and active-duty Marines to the nation’s capital, Los Angeles, Chicago, New Orleans, Memphis and Portland, Ore.
The administration also kept 200 National Guard personnel deployed in Texas after they left Chicago.
“CBO estimates that those deployments (excluding the one to New Orleans, which occurred at the end of the year) cost a total of approximately $496 million through the end of December 2025,” the CBO said in a letter to Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore.
“The costs of those or other deployments in the future are highly uncertain, mainly because the scale, length and location of such deployments are difficult to predict accurately,” the CBO said.
“That uncertainty is compounded by legal challenges, which have stopped deployments to some cities, and by changes in the administration’s policies.”
Merkley is the ranking member of the Senate Committee on the Budget and asked the CBO to provide a cost breakdown of National Guard deployments in U.S. cities.
“The American people deserve to know how many hundreds of millions of their hard-earned dollars have been and are being wasted on Trump’s reckless and haphazard deployment of National Guard troops to Portland and cities across the country,” Merkley said Wednesday in a prepared statement.
The CBO further estimated the cost for continuing such deployments would be $93 million per month, including between $18 million and $21 million per month per city to deploy 1,000 National Guardsmen in 2026.
The cost breakdown includes healthcare, military pay and benefits, plus lodging, food and transportation costs.
“CBO does not expect the military to incur significant costs to operate and maintain equipment during domestic deployments,” the report said.
“So far, such deployments appear to mainly involve foot patrols conducted by small units, without the extensive types of supporting forces or heavy equipment associated with operations in combat zones.”
CBO officials also do not expect the Department of Defense to incur new equipment costs for the deployments.
BREAKINGBREAKING,
Kremlin has not indicated whether it will agree to al-Sharaa’s repeated requests for Bashar al-Assad’s extradition.
Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa is meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow as the latter seeks to shore up Russia’s presence in the country, including militarily, just over a year after al-Sharaa ousted Russia’s former ally, Bashar al-Assad.
Speaking at a news conference before their meeting on Wednesday, al-Sharaa thanked Putin for supporting unity in Syria and what he said was the “historic” role Russia had played in the “stability of the region”.
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Putin expressed his support for al-Sharaa’s ongoing efforts to stabilise Syria and congratulated him on gaining momentum towards “restoring the territorial integrity of Syria”.
Putin and al-Sharaa spent more than a decade on opposing sides of Syria’s civil war, prompting concerns in Moscow about the future of Russia’s military presence there.
Before the talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said “the presence of our soldiers in Syria” would be discussed. They are stationed at the Khmeimim airbase and the Tartous naval base in Syria’s Mediterranean coastal region.
Earlier this week, Russia reportedly withdrew its forces from the Qamishli airport in Kurdish-held northeastern Syria, leaving it with only its two Mediterranean bases – now its only military outposts outside the former Soviet Union.
Amberin Zaman, a correspondent with the Middle East news outlet Al-Monitor, published footage that she said was from the abandoned base in Qamishli on Monday.
Syria had historically been one of Moscow’s closest allies in the Middle East. Their ties go back to the Cold War when the Soviet Union provided extensive military and other types of support to the Baathist regime in Damascus, led first by Hafez al-Assad and then his son Bashar.
Moscow had been worried about the possibility of a “populist anti-Russia” government emerging in Damascus when Bashar al-Assad was overthrown, Samuel Ramani, an associate fellow at the London-based RUSI think tank, told Al Jazeera.
“They feared he [al-Sharaa] would squeeze them out, but the Russians have been pleasantly surprised, even if they’ve had to downgrade their ties from before,” Ramani added.
Al-Sharaa has taken a pragmatic approach, Ramani said, seeking to build his own relations with extra-regional powers as a hedge against possible political swings in the United States.
“The Republicans are lenient towards Syria engaging Russia as long as they keep Iran out,” Ramani said, “whereas the Democrats have been more sceptical overall and have wanted to move slower on the removal of sanctions and other issues.”
“Al-Sharaa also needs Russia, and that is why he is engaging,” he said.
Al-Sharaa played down Russia’s role in Syria’s war and sought to strike a friendlier tone during his first visit to Moscow in October despite Russia providing refuge to Bashar al-Assad and his wife, who fled the country in December 2024 as al-Sharaa-led opposition fighters advanced towards Damascus.
Al-Sharaa has requested al-Assad’s extradition and said at an event last month that there would be justice for Syrians who were victims of the former president’s repression.
Putin will be especially eager to maintain Russia’s presence in Syria, having lost another ally this month when the US sent special forces to abduct Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro.
On Tuesday, Russian Defence Minister Andrey Removich Belousov said after a meeting with his Chinese counterpart that Moscow was closely monitoring the situation in Venezuela and with Iran, which has close ties with Russia and has been facing threats of attack from the US in recent weeks.
Syria’s new leaders have reoriented the country’s foreign policy away from Russia and have said they’re seeking to build a strategic relationship with the US, which has been reciprocated by the Trump administration.
The US appeared not to follow through with warnings to the Syrian government against engaging the Kurdish-led, US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces this month but later helped broker a truce to end the fighting.
A fragile ceasefire is now in place and has been largely holding.