Middle East war

Soaring jet fuel prices and the threat to supplies – amid the Middle East war – has left millions of Brits worrying about whether their summer holiday plans will be disrupted

May could mark the peak in flights being axed due to the Iran war, an expert has declared.

Families were urged not to panic about their summer getaway, despite fears over jet fuel shortages. Data shows airlines have cut 13,000 flights globally this month due to the conflict in the Middle East. In total, nearly two million seats have been removed from flights scheduled for May.

The reductions come ahead of the half-term holidays at the end of the month. Many people have been left worrying what will happen to holiday flights already booked over the peak months ahead.

Aviation analyst John Strickland insisted the 13,000 flights pulled this month amount to about 1% or 2% of all those scheduled. And he warned against assuming the same number – or more – would be impacted in the coming months.

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“You can’t judge May against the peak summer,” Mr Strickland told the Mirror. “Airlines want to fly their full programme – this is not a wholesale chopping of flights that would disrupt people’s summer holiday plans.”

Mr Strickland said airlines were “relatively confident” they will have enough jet fuel available on a rolling six-week basis, with signs that additional supplies are being sourced from the US and elsewhere to replace those lost from the Gulf.

Some carriers have switched to smaller aircraft or more fuel efficient planes to brace themselves for possible disruption, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. It says 120 scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have so far been cancelled in May. While it is still early days, the number of cancellations in June stands at 36, out of just under 22,000 scheduled flights.

It comes after the price of jet fuel doubled in the wake of the US-Israel war with Iran which erupted at the end of February. The conflict has crippled shipments through the key Strait of Hormuz.

German airline Lufthansa has axed 20,000 flights, and warned higher jet fuel prices could cost it £1.5billion this year. It joined around two dozen airlines that have now scaled back operations.

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at the start of April his airline may be forced to cancel 10% of its flights this summer. He told ITV News: “We’re all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June and July.”

British Airways owner IAG is due to issue updated results on Friday.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was confident most people travelling this summer would have a similar experience to last year. She said there was currently no disruption to the supply of jet fuel, but “this clearly is an evolving situation”.

Oil prices slumped to two-week lows on Wednesday amid reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal. Brent crude fell 7% to $102 a barrel – down a recent peak of more than $120 but still well above the $60 before the war started.

Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said: “It is understandable that holidaymakers are feeling apprehensive about their summer travel plans due to the wave of cancellations.

“The percentage of flights cancelled from the UK remains small, when you consider that the worst airlines cancel over 2% of flights less than a day before departure, even in normal times.

“Our advice for this summer is to book a package holiday, as that is the best way to protect the full cost of your holiday should greater disruption occur.”

Mark Tanzer, chief executive of travel trade body ABTA, said: “We really don’t want people worrying about their holidays; planes are taking off daily and people are continuing to get away on their holidays.

“The Government and airlines are clear that there isn’t a problem with fuel supply. If you have a holiday booked in for the coming months – including the May half term – we expect it to go ahead as planned.

“Whilst there have been reports about cancellations globally, these amount to less than one percent of overall flights.”

The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created what Goldman Sachs describes as “extreme tightness” in Europe’s jet fuel supply, and the UK is seen as particularly vulnerable

Britain is at risk of rationing jet fuel due to shortages stemming from the Iran conflict, an expert has claimed.

With supplies potentially dropping to “critically low levels”, concern has grown for Europe’s jet fuel market and the consequences this will have on travel this summer. Some airlines, such as KLM and Lufthansa, have already cancelled flights due to fears about fuel.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the market and the UK is especially exposed due to its limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity. It means the prospect of rationing is believed to being considered to help sustain the travel sector.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, prompting bleak warnings from Keir Starmer that travellers may need to rethink their holiday plans.

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Goldman Sachs said in a research note: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

The Gulf region supplies around one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily dependent on those flows, airlines are now competing for alternative sources — driving prices even higher. According to The Times, Goldman Sachs noted that the UK, as Europe’s largest net importer of jet fuel, lacks strategic reserves and relies primarily on commercial inventories as a buffer. Those levels, particularly in Britain, could fall dangerously low, increasing the likelihood of rationing.

Any sustained shortage would likely force airlines to cancel or consolidate flights while pushing ticket prices upward. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter of airline operating costs. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel expenses, acknowledging it is “not immune” to ongoing volatility despite hedging strategies.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to rise by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates an increase of more than $4billion (£2.96million) — costs that are expected to translate into higher fares and reduced perks for passengers.

Although UK ministers have suggested supplies can be sourced from elsewhere, industry figures are less optimistic. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.

Fuel suppliers have also warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe when it comes to jet fuel supply, largely because of its dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson noting that uncertainty remains high and preparations are being made for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also pointed to the UK’s reduced refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery — Scotland’s only oil refinery — last April. Concerns had also surrounded the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, said the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute argued that Europe’s climate-focused energy policies have contributed to higher prices — two to three times those of competitors — and increased dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers said May demand should remain manageable but warned that disruptions could begin by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.