Middle East war

Soaring jet fuel prices and the threat to supplies – amid the Middle East war – has left millions of Brits worrying about whether their summer holiday plans will be disrupted

May could mark the peak in flights being axed due to the Iran war, an expert has declared.

Families were urged not to panic about their summer getaway, despite fears over jet fuel shortages. Data shows airlines have cut 13,000 flights globally this month due to the conflict in the Middle East. In total, nearly two million seats have been removed from flights scheduled for May.

The reductions come ahead of the half-term holidays at the end of the month. Many people have been left worrying what will happen to holiday flights already booked over the peak months ahead.

Aviation analyst John Strickland insisted the 13,000 flights pulled this month amount to about 1% or 2% of all those scheduled. And he warned against assuming the same number – or more – would be impacted in the coming months.

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“You can’t judge May against the peak summer,” Mr Strickland told the Mirror. “Airlines want to fly their full programme – this is not a wholesale chopping of flights that would disrupt people’s summer holiday plans.”

Mr Strickland said airlines were “relatively confident” they will have enough jet fuel available on a rolling six-week basis, with signs that additional supplies are being sourced from the US and elsewhere to replace those lost from the Gulf.

Some carriers have switched to smaller aircraft or more fuel efficient planes to brace themselves for possible disruption, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium. It says 120 scheduled flights from the UK to global destinations have so far been cancelled in May. While it is still early days, the number of cancellations in June stands at 36, out of just under 22,000 scheduled flights.

It comes after the price of jet fuel doubled in the wake of the US-Israel war with Iran which erupted at the end of February. The conflict has crippled shipments through the key Strait of Hormuz.

German airline Lufthansa has axed 20,000 flights, and warned higher jet fuel prices could cost it £1.5billion this year. It joined around two dozen airlines that have now scaled back operations.

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said at the start of April his airline may be forced to cancel 10% of its flights this summer. He told ITV News: “We’re all facing an unknown scenario. And we are certainly looking at maybe having to cancel 5% to 10% of flights through May, June and July.”

British Airways owner IAG is due to issue updated results on Friday.

Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said she was confident most people travelling this summer would have a similar experience to last year. She said there was currently no disruption to the supply of jet fuel, but “this clearly is an evolving situation”.

Oil prices slumped to two-week lows on Wednesday amid reports that the US and Iran were nearing an initial peace deal. Brent crude fell 7% to $102 a barrel – down a recent peak of more than $120 but still well above the $60 before the war started.

Rory Boland, editor of Which? Travel, said: “It is understandable that holidaymakers are feeling apprehensive about their summer travel plans due to the wave of cancellations.

“The percentage of flights cancelled from the UK remains small, when you consider that the worst airlines cancel over 2% of flights less than a day before departure, even in normal times.

“Our advice for this summer is to book a package holiday, as that is the best way to protect the full cost of your holiday should greater disruption occur.”

Mark Tanzer, chief executive of travel trade body ABTA, said: “We really don’t want people worrying about their holidays; planes are taking off daily and people are continuing to get away on their holidays.

“The Government and airlines are clear that there isn’t a problem with fuel supply. If you have a holiday booked in for the coming months – including the May half term – we expect it to go ahead as planned.

“Whilst there have been reports about cancellations globally, these amount to less than one percent of overall flights.”

The extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has created what Goldman Sachs describes as “extreme tightness” in Europe’s jet fuel supply, and the UK is seen as particularly vulnerable

Britain is at risk of rationing jet fuel due to shortages stemming from the Iran conflict, an expert has claimed.

With supplies potentially dropping to “critically low levels”, concern has grown for Europe’s jet fuel market and the consequences this will have on travel this summer. Some airlines, such as KLM and Lufthansa, have already cancelled flights due to fears about fuel.

Now, Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has said the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created “extreme tightness” in the market and the UK is especially exposed due to its limited stockpiles, heavy reliance on imports, and constrained refining capacity. It means the prospect of rationing is believed to being considered to help sustain the travel sector.

Jet fuel prices have doubled since the war began on February 28, prompting bleak warnings from Keir Starmer that travellers may need to rethink their holiday plans.

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Goldman Sachs said in a research note: “The UK is the largest net importer of jet fuel in Europe, and it holds no strategic reserves, leaving commercial inventories as the primary buffer. As a result, inventories in some countries, especially the UK, could fall to critically low levels, increasing the likelihood of rationing measures.”

The Gulf region supplies around one-fifth of globally traded fuel, and with Europe heavily dependent on those flows, airlines are now competing for alternative sources — driving prices even higher. According to The Times, Goldman Sachs noted that the UK, as Europe’s largest net importer of jet fuel, lacks strategic reserves and relies primarily on commercial inventories as a buffer. Those levels, particularly in Britain, could fall dangerously low, increasing the likelihood of rationing.

Any sustained shortage would likely force airlines to cancel or consolidate flights while pushing ticket prices upward. Fuel accounts for as much as a quarter of airline operating costs. IAG, the parent company of British Airways, has already indicated it will raise fares to offset higher fuel expenses, acknowledging it is “not immune” to ongoing volatility despite hedging strategies.

Air France expects its jet fuel bill to rise by $2.4billion (£1.77million) this year, while American Airlines anticipates an increase of more than $4billion (£2.96million) — costs that are expected to translate into higher fares and reduced perks for passengers.

Although UK ministers have suggested supplies can be sourced from elsewhere, industry figures are less optimistic. Ryanair chief Michael O’Leary said airlines are “desperately” looking for flights to cancel and could begin doing so within weeks.

Fuel suppliers have also warned that the UK has the “most limited visibility” in Europe when it comes to jet fuel supply, largely because of its dependence on Middle Eastern imports.

The European Commission said it would issue guidance to airlines this week, with a spokesperson noting that uncertainty remains high and preparations are being made for multiple scenarios.

Analysts also pointed to the UK’s reduced refining capacity following the closure of the Grangemouth refinery — Scotland’s only oil refinery — last April. Concerns had also surrounded the future of the Prax Lindsey refinery in north Lincolnshire, though its new owner, Phillips 66, said the recent acquisition should help stabilise supply.

A report from the Tony Blair Institute argued that Europe’s climate-focused energy policies have contributed to higher prices — two to three times those of competitors — and increased dependence on imports.

Fuel suppliers said May demand should remain manageable but warned that disruptions could begin by mid-to-late June if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.

The sharp rise in the cost of jet fuel, driven by escalating tensions in the US-Israel war with Iran, has forced several airlines to hike fares, cut routes and reassess their financial forecasts

Multiple airlines are cancelling flights and introducing new charges as a deepening jet fuel crisis sends shockwaves through the global aviation industry.

Prices have surged dramatically in recent weeks, climbing from roughly $85-$90 per barrel to as high as $150-$200, driven by escalating tensions in the US-Israeli war with Iran.

The sharp rise in costs has now forced carriers to hike fares, cut routes and reassess their financial forecasts. The spike has triggered warnings of major disruption, with International Energy chief Fatih Birol cautioning that Europe could have as little as six weeks of jet fuel supply remaining if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.

There are more than 30 airlines around the world who say they have been forced to cancel flights or add charges:

AirAsia X – Cut around 10% of flights and introduced a fuel surcharge of roughly 20%.

Air France-KLM – Raising long-haul fares, plus cabin fares by 50 euros per round trip, as well as cancelling flights. KLM, the group’s Dutch arm, is set to scrap 160 European services in the coming months.

Air India – Switching to distance-based fuel surcharges, warning current pricing does not cover rising costs, reports the Independent.

Air New Zealand – Reducing flights through May and June, increasing fares and suspending its full-year earnings forecast.

Akasa Air – Introducing fuel surcharges ranging between 199 and 1,300 Indian rupees ($2 to $14) on both domestic and international routes.

Alaska Air – Increasing checked baggage fees by up to $150 on North American routes, as well as for its Hawaiian Airlines unit.

American Airlines – Raising baggage fees by $10 each for the first and second checked bags and by $150 for the third checked bag, while cutting some economy benefits.

Asiana Airlines – Cutting 22 flights between April and July due to fuel costs.

Cathay Pacific – Cancelling a small portion of flights from mid-May until the end of June and increasing fuel surcharges.

China Eastern Airlines – The airline said it would raise ⁠fuel surcharges for domestic flights from April 5, with flights of 800km and below hit with a 60 yuan ($9) surcharge and a 120 yuan surcharge for flights over 800km.

Delta Airlines – Delta said it would cut capacity by around 3.5 percentage points from its original plan and raise fees for checked bags.

Easyjet – CEO Kenton Jarvis previously said European consumers should expect higher ticket prices towards the end of summer, when existing fuel hedges come to an end.

Greater Bay Airlines – Said it would raise fuel surcharges on most routes from April 1, while keeping them unchanged on mainland China and Japan routes. Its surcharge for flights between Hong Kong ‌and the Philippines will more than double, the carrier said.

Hong Kong Airlines – The airline said it would raise fuel surcharges by up to 35% from March 12, with the sharpest increase on flights between Hong Kong and the Maldives, Bangladesh and Nepal

Indigo – India’s biggest airline said it would introduce fuel charges on domestic and international flights from March 14.

Jetblue Airways – The US-based low-cost carrier said it was increasing fees for optional services such as checked baggage as it experiences “rising operating ⁠costs”. Baggage prices will rise by either $4 or $9, it said.

Lufthansa – Grounding 27 planes early and cutting more aircraft from its fleet.

Norse Atlantic Airways – Axed its London Gatwick to Los Angeles route because of fuel costs.

Pakistan International Airlines – Raising domestic fares by $20 and international fares by up to $100.

SAS – Will cancel 1,000 flights in April after already hiking fares.

Spring Airlines – The airline will raise domestic fuel surcharges from April 5.

Southwest Airlines – Hiking baggage fees to $45 for a first bag and $55 for a second.

SunExpress – The airline will add a temporary 10-euro fuel surcharge on Turkey-Europe routes.

TAP Air Portugal – Said fare rises would soften the blow from higher fuel prices.

Thai Airways – Increasing fares by up to 15%.

United Airlines – United Airlines is scaling back loss-making routes over the next six months. It has also been able to push up fares without seeing a major impact on bookings, chief commercial officer Andrew Nocella said, despite the sharp rise in oil and jet fuel costs.

United is also increasing first and second checked baggage fees by $10 for customers travelling within the US, Mexico, Canada and Latin America, according to Reuters.

VietJet Air – Cut flights on some routes because of fuel shortages.

Vietnam Airlines – plans to cancel 23 domestic flights a week from April. The airline reportedly requested government assistance to remove an environmental tax on jet fuel.

Virgin Atlantic – The airline is adding fuel surcharges to fares and will still struggle to return to profitability this year, its CEO Corneel ‌Koster told the Financial Times.

Volotea – Introduced a pricing policy that could add fuel surcharges of up to 14 euros per passenger.

WestJet – Cutting seats, combining flights and adding a C$60 fuel surcharge on some bookings, according to the Canadian press

Airlines could face ‘an existential crisis’ in just a few weeks’ time if the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues, an aviation expert has said, amid warnings that more flights could be cancelled

British tourists could face up to eight weeks of cancelled flights and airport chaos this summer as major airlines grapple with imminent fuel shortages, experts have warned.

European giants KLM and Lufthansa announced yesterday that they would be axing hundreds of flights due to the soaring cost of jet fuel – while Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that European airports have only “six weeks or so” of supply left due to shortages caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

The warnings have new sparked fears of disruption just before the busy summer holiday season, with airlines set to slash more routes and cut back on schedules if the crisis goes on.

READ MORE: EasyJet boss warns of summer price hike after £25million hit from jet fuel costsREAD MORE: KLM and Lufthansa CANCEL hundreds of flights as fuel cost soar amid Iran war

One aviation expert said that the period between now and mid-June could prove crucial, as airlines could face an “existential crisis” if the global oil shock has not by subsided by then.

Sally Gethin told the Daily Mail: “The worst case scenario is if this carries on for six to eight weeks and the shortages start really biting. This could pose an existential crisis to airlines – even if they slap on fuel surcharges they still won’t recoup the cost.

“You could be looking at tens of thousands, potentially hundreds of thousands, of flights being cancelled globally. It could affect holiday companies as well, although consumers will be protected if their trips are covered by ATOL.”

The Mirror has approached all of Britain’s largest airlines and airport operators to ask whether they are preparing contingency plans for jet fuel shortages. Simon Calder, a travel journalist, reassured holidaymakers today that Mr Birol’s warning was “a mile off” but accepted prices of foreign holidays are likely to rocket this summer. He told Channel 5’s Matt Allwright Show families should look at holidaying in the UK, such as at Bournemouth, instead.

On Thursday, easyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis said all the airports it serves are “operating as normal”.

He went on: “We only ever in this industry have three to four weeks visibility (of jet fuel supplies), and that is the same as it was pre-crisis.

“We have visibility to the middle of May, and we have no concerns.

“What we’re seeing is airports and fuel suppliers working well to bring jet fuel to the airports.”

Chancellor Rachel Reeves told the BBC yesterday that Britain has “no issues with supply at the moment” in jet fuel, diesel or petrol as she left a meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in Washington DC.

The IMF this week urged countries to manage energy demand by adopting measures such as subsidising public transport and promoting remote work to combat a surge in energy costs caused by the conflict.

The global air travel crisis has spread further as Lufthansa and KLM became the latest airlines to announce flights axed to and from major destinations, including London Heathrow

Hundreds of flights have been cancelled by two major airlines amid warnings Europe has just a “few weeks” of jet fuel left.

Germany’s flag carrier airline Lufthansa is suspending its CityLine services from tomorrow, including flights to and from London, in response to rocketing kerosene costs and an ongoing trade union dispute. Netherlands’ KLM meanwhile confirmed it had cancelled 160 flights over the next month, as the industry grapples with an ‘unprecedented’ oil shock triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

It comes after the head of the world ’s energy watchdog has warned that Europe only has six weeks’ supply of jet fuel because of the Middle East conflict.

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Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned there could be flight cancellations “soon” if oil supplies remain restricted by the war, with Iran and the US jostling for control for the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway.

Mr Birol said the conflict is causing “the largest energy crisis” the world has “ever faced”, with Asian nations such as Japan, India and China that rely on energy from the Middle East currently on “the front line”. But he warned that the impact would then “come to Europe and the Americas”, likely as soon as late May. Tourists are encouraged to continue to check before they travel.

Lufthansa’s CityLine services, which fly to a number of destinations across Europe including London, Paris, Frankfurt, Florence, Kraków, Stockholm and Copenhagen, will be cancelled from Saturday. Multiple daily services from Heathrow have already been pulled from the schedule.

A statement from Lufthansa last night said: “In view of significantly increased kerosene prices, which have more than doubled compared to the period before the Iran war, as well as rising additional burdens from labour disputes, the implementation of the corporate strategy is being partially accelerated.

“As a first, immediately effective step, starting the day after tomorrow, the 27 operational aircraft of Lufthansa Cityline will be permanently removed from the schedule to reduce further losses at the loss-making airline.”

Ongoing strikes by pilots and cabin crew belonging to German trade unions have already grounded approximately 90% of all Lufthansa Group flights on the worst days this week, with cancellations reported at Heathrow, Manchester, Birmingham, Edinburgh, Newcastle, and Glasgow.

KLM announced “a number of adjustments to its flight schedule for the coming month” on routes which are “no longer financially viable to operate”. The Dutch airline said this was due “rising kerosene costs”, adding: “There is no kerosene shortage.”

Meanwhile, schedule data published by AeroRoutes this week showed that Norse Airlines has cancelled bookings for its planned Los Angeles flights this summer from London Gatwick, Paris Charles de Gaulle, and Rome Fiumicino.

Jet prices have more than doubled since the beginning of the Iran war on February 28, causing the largest wave of cancellations at many major international airports since the Covid pandemic.

Tourism chiefs are predicting a near two million jump in the number of Brits holidaying at home this Easter

Around 12.5 million Brits are planning an Easter staycation – as the Middle East war deters families from jetting abroad.

The number of people who say they intend to holiday in the UK over the Easter weekend is up sharply from 10.6 million last year. The near two million surge will help deliver a bumper £4.8billion boost to tourism and the wider economy, according to VisitEngland, which published the data.

The number saying they hope to holiday at home dwarfs the estimated 7.4 million who are planning a trip abroad this Easter. Of those definitely aiming to take a staycation during the Easter break, the majority will be short breaks of one to three nights.

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It came as VisitEngland’s Trip-Tracker revealed that more than a quarter of those it surveyed, 28%, were worried about the impact of the Middle East conflict on their upcoming travel plans in April and May. The top concern was having less money to spend due to the economic impact. There have already been fears of air fare price hikes and possible flight cancellations.

The number of people planning an Easter staycation this year also marks a big jump on 2024’s 11 million, and nearly double the 6.5 million in 2023. A further 5.1 million people surveyed said they were undecided about whether to take an overnight holiday trip in the UK during the Easter weekend. The top reasons were “waiting to see if I can afford it” and “waiting to see what the weather is like”. Forecasts for the weather suggest it will be a mixed bag next week, but with settled conditions over the Easter weekend itself.

However, those driving for days out and holidays in the UK face a hit to the wallet from soaring fuel prices on the back of the Iran war. The nationwide average for unleaded has jumped to 150p a litre, up 17p since before the conflict erupted. Diesel drivers have been hit even harder, with diesel now averaging 176.68p per litre, a leap of 34p in recent weeks.

RAC head of policy Simon Williams said: “Petrol has now broken through the unwelcome milestone of 150p a litre (150.11p), something drivers haven’t seen since mid-May two years ago while the average price of diesel is now approaching 180p at 177.68p.

“With the long-awaited four-day Easter weekend almost within touching distance, the cost of getting away by car is going to be noticeably higher this year.

“And with average prices at motorway services at 166p for unleaded and 182p for diesel, drivers on long journeys will need to plan very carefully where they refuel. The best advice remains to shop around for fuel and make use of free apps such as myRAC to never pay a penny more for fuel than is absolutely necessary.”

Some families may also think twice given another wave of bill increases – including water and council tax – from the start of April, and warnings that food price inflation could jump again.

Kate Allen, owner of Devon-based Finest Stays, said: “For now, we’re not seeing a slowdown. Bookings are up around 10% on this time last year, with more guests opting to stay in the UK rather than travel further afield to places like Dubai.

“The Great British holiday is very much in favour, as we’re a nation that prioritises getting away, and domestic breaks are benefiting from that shift. That said, there’s a nervous undercurrent. Fuel costs feel like a slow leak, pressure building rather than bursting.

“We’re expecting more guests to postpone or cancel, and that’s where it gets tricky. Terms and conditions may cover it, but it doesn’t make refund conversations any easier when the wider impact on businesses and homeowners isn’t fully understood.”

Tourism Minister Stephanie Peacock said: “It is wonderful that so many people are planning on having a staycation this Easter weekend, whether that’s spending time visiting our stunning landscapes and coastlines or exploring our vibrant towns, cities and cultural landmarks. Supporting domestic tourism helps local areas thrive – fuelling small businesses, boosting pride, and strengthening community economies.”

VisitEngland chief executive Patricia Yates said: “Tourism businesses and destinations will be looking to the critical Easter weekend for much needed cash flow so it’s encouraging to see so many of us are planning a holiday at home, with its ease, convenience and certainty of budgeting. We also know that the cost of living remains a concern for holidaymakers, leaving it difficult too for businesses to plan in advance.

“We have incredible activities, experiences and places to stay for all tastes and budgets, and there really is nowhere quite like Britain in springtime. From walks in our beautiful countryside with the promise of a pub lunch or discovering contemporary culture in our buzzing cities to enjoying fish and chips on the beach, there is something for everyone. So, a rallying cry to please go out and explore the amazing destinations and events here on our doorstep this spring. Tourism businesses will be very pleased to welcome you, you will have an amazing time and create memories to make you smile all year.”

It came as trade body UKHospitality stepped up criticism of what has been dubbed a new “tourist tax”. Labour is proposing to allow regional mayors in England to introduce a “visitor levy” on overnight stays, as already happens in some European countries. While details of how it would work are still to be finalised, it could either be a per head charge or a percentage of the cost of the stay. Small businesses – from guesthouses to B&Bs – say it could lead to closures.

Modelling by Oxford Economics, commissioned by UKHospitality, which assumed a 5% levy, warned it could lead to a £1.6billion tax increase for holidaymakers by 2030, and a £2.2billion hit to the economy.

In a blow to Brits planning to get away for summer 2026, experts have revealed that the situation in the Middle East could cause holiday prices to rise, even in destinations not affected by the conflict

Brits planning to get away overseas for Easter or summer this year are being warned they may need to expand their budget, as holiday prices could rise across all destinations.

Hannah Mayfield, a qualified financial advisor, has explained that the situation in the Middle East could have a “knock-on effect” on prices, following similar patterns seen during times of instability. Even those who opt for a UK-based staycation, or visit countries nowhere near the Middle East, could see higher prices for flights, accommodation, and even everyday spending.

Hannah explained: “Rising tensions in the Middle East can have a knock-on effect on holiday costs, even if you’re travelling somewhere completely different. But this isn’t a new phenomenon. We’ve seen similar patterns during previous periods of geopolitical instability, where travellers change their plans and demand shifts toward destinations perceived as safer.”

Hannah, who is working with travel insurers PayingTooMuch, gave the reasons why flight prices could rise: “Airlines can face higher operating costs during periods of geopolitical instability. If flights need to avoid certain airspaces, routes can become longer. At the same time, global oil prices usually rise during conflicts in major energy-producing regions, and that can eventually feed through into the price for fuel. For travellers, that might mean more expensive plane tickets.”

And it’s not just overseas jaunts that could become more expensive. Hannah said: “There’s also the potential impact on taking holidays, especially to destinations closer to home. If some holidaymakers decide not to travel as far afield, demand for popular destinations such as coastal towns, national parks and major cities can increase.

“When that happens, accommodation prices often rise during peak periods, particularly if availability is limited.” This could mean that, like during Covid, staycations could become pricier.

If you’re planning a trip, even to ‘safe’ destinations, you Hannah advises: “When travel feels more uncertain making sure you have the right level of cover for your trip becomes even more important, so you are less likely to face unexpected costs. Booking early, staying flexible with travel dates, comparing travel insurance policies and prices for flights can make a noticeable difference to the overall cost of a trip.”

She also had this warning: “Most standard travel insurance policies don’t cover acts of war, so conflicts itself may not typically have a direct impact on premiums. However, travellers should always check their policy details carefully, so they understand exactly what is and isn’t covered.

“Consider getting a policy that offers additional cover for travel disruptions which can offer another layer of protection in situations where official government travel advice changes and costs can’t be recovered elsewhere. It’s also worth noting that travel insurance does not cover events that are already known at the time the policy is purchased.”

Hannah, who also runs What is Wealth, which offers financial education for women, also gave some additional money saving tips for holidaymakers: “Keeping an eye on exchange rates and fuel prices can also help holidaymakers budget more accurately and avoid unexpected costs closer to their trip.”

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