Brent crude edged 2.5% higher on Tuesday and seems to have steadied around $100 per barrel at the time of writing, as US-Iran negotiations stall.
On the other hand, WTI dropped over 4% and is trading around $92.6 per barrel.
Overall, oil prices were declining since last Wednesday as the framework for a peace deal, or at least a longer and more encompassing ceasefire, between the US and Iran was seemingly on the verge of being agreed.
However, Iran accused the US of breaching the current ceasefire after Washington carried out what it described as defensive strikes in the southern part of the country.
Iran’s foreign ministry stated that the US attacks in the Hormozgan province, where Iranian media reported hearing explosions early Tuesday, amounted to a “serious violation” of the fragile ceasefire that has been in effect for almost seven weeks.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations aimed at ending the conflict could require “a few days” to reach an agreement.
On Monday, US President Donald Trump also reiterated nuclear demands in a social media post, as tensions continue to surround the fundamental aspects of a possible agreement.
Investors appear to have mixed reactions to the developments with some markets seeming to price in a decrease in the probability that a deal is imminent.
In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 50 has fallen more than 0.7% while the broader pan-European Stoxx 600 is trading around 1% lower as we approach the close of Tuesday’s session.
The UK’s FTSE 100, Germany’s DAX 30, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB, the Netherlands’ AEX and Switzerland’s CH20 have all dropped between 0.1% and 0.7%.
Over in Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Taiwan’s TAIEX closed flat, but South Korea’s KOSPI jumped 2.5% primarily driven by a continuous demand for AI-related equities.
However, US markets appear completely decoupled from other indices and the broader situation. Not only have WTI prices continued to fall on Tuesday but the S&P 500 also opened 0.6% higher.
Both the US and Iran had signalled headway toward a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict and resume maritime traffic through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, while allowing negotiators a 60-day window to tackle more complicated matters such as Iran’s nuclear activities and supplies.
In his latest remarks, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the Strait of Hormuz must remain accessible “one way or the other” as traffic through the chokepoint has dropped sharply, with only a few dozen ships currently using the route each day, compared with the usual 125 to 140 vessels.
Iran has continued to permit limited shipping, prioritising vessels connected to allied or friendly nations and arranging passage through state-to-state agreements.
Continuous reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz underscore how far from the normalisation of energy flows and other supplies the global economy still is.
On Tuesday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported that a tanker experienced an external blast near the waterline on its port side.
According to the agency, the vessel was located about 60 nautical miles from Muscat, the capital of Oman.
UKMTO said the tanker and all crew members were unharmed, although a quantity of bunker fuel spilled into the sea.
This is the most recent reported incident near the Strait of Hormuz at the time of writing.
Samsung Electronics Co. topped smartphone markets in Central and South America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia in the first quarter, industry data showed Monday. In this photo, Galaxy S26 Ultra phones are on display at the Samsung Gangnam store on March 11, 2026. File Photo by Yonhap
Samsung Electronics Co. topped the smartphone markets in Central and South America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia in the first quarter on steady sales of its premium Galaxy S26 and budget Galaxy A series smartphones, industry data showed Monday.
According to the data compiled by industry tracker Omdia, Samsung Electronics sold some 12.9 million units of smartphones in the Central and South American market in the January-March period, accounting for 37 percent of the total 34.8 million smartphones sold there over the cited period.
Omdia said the performance was driven by solid sales of Galaxy A series smartphones as Samsung Electronics responded to market demand with a diversified product lineup.
In the Middle East market, where smartphone sales fell 6 percent on-year to 11 million units in the first quarter, Samsung Electronics led the market with a market share of 34 percent on strong demand for the latest Galaxy S26 and Galaxy A series smartphones.
The company also sold 4.6 million smartphones in the Southeast Asian market, accounting for 21 percent of all smartphones sold there in the first quarter.
Omdia said strong sales of the Galaxy S26 series, launched in January, and steady demand for the Galaxy A series helped Samsung Electronics expand its market share in Southeast Asia, where quarterly smartphone sales fell 9 percent from a year earlier.
Earlier, Omdia said Samsung Electronics ranked No. 1 in the global smartphone market in the first quarter with a 22 percent market share.
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Political turmoil rattles emerging markets as election risks mount
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Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks Wednesday at a Senate subcommittee hearing focused on the recent surge in popularity of sports betting and betting by minor. Photo by Erika Tulfo/Medill News Service
WASHINGTON, May 20 (UPI) — As sports betting and prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket grow in popularity, U.S. senators on Wednesday weighed the need to regulate use of the platforms by minors.
One main issue senators raised during a hearing by the Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology and Data Privacy was how prediction markets use social media to advertise their platforms to underage users, putting them at risk of a gambling addiction.
“Young people are being inundated with advertisements on social media. Their favorite influencers and sports figures are introducing minors to betting,” said Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., who chaired the hearing.
“This is not safe. It needs to stop, and advertising to minors is disgusting,” Blackburn said.
The “No Sure Bets: Protecting Sports Integrity in America” hearing was intended to discuss the prevalence of sports betting and its impact on the integrity of matches.
It followed a unanimous Senate vote last month to ban its members and their staffs from trading on prediction market platforms, and the senators seemed determined to do more. Issues surrounding gaming continue to be a hot topic in Congress, where more than 10 active bills are related to prediction markets.
Some recent high-profile scandals surrounding prediction market platforms have also drawn attention to the industry, including the arrest of U.S. Army soldier Gannon Van Dyke last month. He was charged with using classified information to profit from a Polymarket wager related to the capture of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro in January.
In the same month, Kalshi fined and suspended from its platform three congressional candidates for betting on the outcomes of their own elections.
In the hearing, Sen. John Hickenlooper, D-Colo., criticized prediction markets like Kalshi for hiring social media influencers to promote their platforms to adolescent users.
“I think it’s specifically dangerous for minors to get into sports betting, and especially on prediction markets. That’s why almost all the states say [the legal betting age] is 21, not 18,” Hickenlooper said.
“Prediction markets let users as young as 18 bet on sports, but they also market their products to younger, more vulnerable audiences who are in many cases adept at getting around the platform precautions.”
A study released in January by Common Sense Media found that more than one-third of adolescent boys aged 11 to 17 admitted to engaging in gambling over the past year. Almost 60% of those who have been gambling said that they were exposed to gambling content through social media.
Kalshi, in an email, denied advertising to minors and pointed to recently implemented consumer protection measures, including requesting a selfie from the user to supplement documents verifying their age.
Hickenlooper grilled Patrick McHenry, a former U.S. representative now acting as senior adviser to the Coalition for Prediction Markets, on the guardrails to ensure underage users could not access their platforms.
McHenry pointed to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees prediction markets and regulates them as a form of financial derivative rather than an avenue for gambling.
“The CFTC is a cop on the beat. It has the capacity to oversee this market, just as they’ve done with a broader commodities marketplace that has been around and well-versed for decades,” he said.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s jurisdiction over prediction markets has been a contentious topic, since users can trade event contracts related to sports, weather, politics and more.
The Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, which Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., introduced in March, seeks to ban prediction markets from listing contracts that resemble sports bets, arguing that such contracts are considered gambling and should be subject to state regulation.
The agency argues that sports event contracts were treated as “swaps,” a term used to describe events that have potential economic consequences.
But Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, pushed back against the classification of sports contracts on prediction markets as financial derivatives.
“What is the economic consequence of whether a pitcher throws a ball or strike?” he asked.
Another bill specifically targeting digital gambling advertisements to minors was introduced Monday. Sens. Richard Blumenthal D‑Conn., and Katie Britt, R‑Ala., are advocating the Gaming Advertisement to Minors Enforcement Act, which would implement a federal ban on sports betting ads on social media platforms for minors.
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Veteran investor George Noble said investors should avoid long-dated bonds and instead focus on energy, commodities, and gold miners as rising deficits, sticky inflation, and higher yields reshape markets.
(George Noble, in collaboration with Seeking Alpha, will host the
Finance ministers from the Group of Seven met in Paris to address rising global financial instability triggered by a bond market selloff and concerns over inflation linked to the ongoing conflict involving Iran.
The meeting comes at a time when global bond markets from Tokyo to New York are under pressure, as investors anticipate that higher energy prices could force central banks to maintain or increase interest rates.
Officials are also preparing for a broader discussion on structural global imbalances and coordination ahead of an upcoming G7 leaders summit.
Bond yields have risen sharply across major economies as investors reassess inflation risks. Markets are increasingly focused on whether rising energy costs will translate into sustained price pressures that limit the ability of central banks to ease policy.
French officials have described the current situation as a correction rather than a crisis, though they acknowledge growing sensitivity around sovereign debt levels and fiscal sustainability.
The volatility has raised concerns particularly in highly debt sensitive economies such as Japan, where bond market movements are closely watched for spillover effects.
Despite the shared concerns, divisions remain among G7 members over how to respond to global economic instability.
European officials have emphasized the need for coordinated, temporary, and targeted responses to market shocks, while acknowledging that consensus with the United States may be difficult.
Some members argue that global economic imbalances are becoming structurally entrenched, with consumption and investment patterns increasingly misaligned across major economies.
A central focus of the discussions is the growing imbalance in global economic activity. European officials argue that long term trends show excessive consumption in some economies, under consumption in others, and insufficient investment in parts of Europe.
These structural disparities are seen as contributing to persistent trade tensions, capital flow imbalances, and financial market instability.
Officials warn that without coordinated policy responses, these imbalances could eventually lead to more severe market corrections.
Another key agenda item is the global competition over critical minerals and rare earth supply chains, which are essential for electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, and defense technologies.
G7 members are exploring ways to reduce dependence on dominant suppliers, particularly China, through coordinated investment, joint procurement strategies, and diversification of supply chains.
Proposals under discussion include pooled purchasing mechanisms, market monitoring systems, and industrial policy coordination to strengthen supply security.
The G7 meeting highlights a convergence of financial instability and geopolitical fragmentation. Rising bond yields and inflation fears are no longer isolated market issues but are now directly linked to geopolitical disruptions in energy supply and global trade routes.
At the same time, disagreements within the G7 reflect deeper structural tensions in the global economy, particularly around debt levels, consumption patterns, and industrial policy priorities.
Efforts to coordinate on critical minerals signal a shift toward more strategic economic alignment among advanced economies, where supply chain security is becoming as important as price stability.
Overall, the meeting underscores a global transition toward a more fragmented and politically driven financial system, where economic coordination is increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk rather than purely market based forces.
With information from Reuters.
Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund, known as UzNIF, began trading on the London Stock Exchange on Monday, marking the country’s first international equity offering.
The fund, which is managed by Franklin Templeton, also launched simultaneously on the Tashkent Stock Exchange through a dual listing structure, bringing Uzbek state-linked assets to international equity markets for the first time.
The opening ceremony at the London Stock Exchange brought together executives, investors and Uzbek officials, with speakers presenting the listing as a significant step in the country’s efforts to expand access to international capital markets.
Speaking during the ceremony, Julia Hoggett, Chief Executive Officer of the London Stock Exchange, described the IPO as “the first ever international IPO out of Uzbekistan” and said the transaction could help “more global investment to flow” into the country’s economy.
Hoggett also said the dual listing marked “a new chapter both in London and in Tashkent”, adding that the offering connected international investors with a portfolio of Uzbek companies through a single fund managed by an international asset manager.
Saida Mirziyoyeva, Head of the Administration of the President of Uzbekistan, said Uzbekistan was preparing “new listings” and expanding private sector participation, while also working on plans linked to the proposed Tashkent International Financial Centre.
Speaking from the London Stock Exchange balcony, Mirziyoyeva said the IPO was “not just about raising capital” but also about “building trust in a new generation of Uzbek institutions”.
Jenny Johnson, President and Chief Executive Officer of Franklin Templeton, described the IPO as “a defining and historic milestone” for both Uzbekistan and Franklin Templeton, saying the transaction had generated more than $2.8 billion in investor demand globally.
Johnson said orders exceeded the initial offering by more than four times during the bookbuilding process, which ran from late April to mid-May. She added that the domestic offering in Tashkent had become the country’s “largest local listing to date”, allowing local investors to participate alongside international institutional funds.
Thirty percent of the fund’s shares were offered internationally through global depositary receipts, while part of the allocation was also made available to domestic investors through the Tashkent Stock Exchange.
According to previously released information from the fund and its advisers, international demand reached around $2.9 billion (€2.6bn), with more than 160 institutional investors participating in the offering. Among them were BlackRock, Franklin Templeton and Redwheel.
The IPO raised approximately $603.6 million (€540m), valuing the fund at around $1.95 billion (€1.74bn) at the offer price. The shares were sold by Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Economy and Finance, meaning the proceeds from the transaction will go to the state rather than directly to the fund itself.
The international tranche included more than 23 million global depositary receipts, or GDRs, listed in London under the trading symbols UZNF and UZ20. One GDR represents 64,700 shares in the fund.
Cornerstone investors, including funds and accounts managed by BlackRock, Franklin Resources and Redwheel, as well as treasury companies linked to the Allan & Gill Gray Foundation, committed a combined $300 million (€268m) to the offering.
UzNIF was established in 2024 under a presidential decree and is managed by Franklin Templeton, the US-based investment company that oversees more than $1.4 trillion (€1.25 trn) in assets globally and operates in more than 150 countries.
The fund’s portfolio includes stakes in 13 state-linked companies operating in sectors considered strategic for the Uzbek economy, including electricity distribution, thermal power generation, hydropower, telecommunications, aviation, rail infrastructure, utilities and banking.
Among the companies included in the portfolio are Uzbektelecom, Uzbekistan Airways, Uzbekhydroenergo and several state energy and infrastructure operators.
The listing also reflects broader efforts to develop domestic capital markets in Uzbekistan and increase participation from local investors alongside international institutions.
Global currency markets remained broadly stable on Monday despite escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran. The limited movement in the US dollar came after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a United States peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that the conflict in the Middle East may persist for an extended period.
At the center of global financial attention is the interaction between geopolitical risk, energy prices, and monetary policy expectations. Rising oil prices, driven by uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability, continue to shape inflation expectations across major economies. However, currency markets have shown relative restraint, suggesting that investors are balancing immediate geopolitical risks against expectations of eventual diplomatic stabilization.
The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of major global currencies, remained largely unchanged. At the same time, oil prices rose sharply, reflecting renewed concerns about supply disruptions and prolonged conflict conditions.
Financial markets are currently operating in a state of tension between short term geopolitical shocks and longer term expectations of resolution. The stability of the US dollar suggests that investors are not fully pricing in a sustained breakdown in global energy flows, despite elevated uncertainty in the Middle East.
The oil market, by contrast, continues to respond rapidly to political developments. The rise in crude prices reflects concerns that prolonged instability could restrict supply routes and tighten global energy availability. This divergence between currency stability and commodity volatility highlights the uneven transmission of geopolitical risk across financial systems.
Market analysts note that expectations of diplomatic engagement between the United States and China remain a key stabilizing factor. Investors increasingly view high level diplomatic meetings as potential mechanisms for de escalation, particularly given the influence both countries exert over global energy and trade systems.
A major factor influencing market behavior is the anticipated summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting is expected to cover a wide range of strategic issues including energy security, artificial intelligence, nuclear policy, and regional conflicts.
Markets are closely monitoring this engagement because both the United States and China possess significant leverage over geopolitical and economic developments in the Middle East. China’s role as a major energy importer and diplomatic stakeholder in the region gives it potential influence over Iranian policy, while the United States remains the dominant military and financial actor in global markets.
This dual influence creates expectations that broader geopolitical tensions may eventually be moderated through strategic dialogue. As a result, investors are partially pricing in the possibility of containment rather than escalation, which helps explain the relative stability of major currencies.
Energy price movements remain central to global inflation dynamics. Rising oil prices directly influence transportation costs, production expenses, and consumer prices, creating upward pressure on inflation across both advanced and emerging economies.
In the United States, recent economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious monetary stance. Strong employment figures combined with persistent inflation risks have reduced expectations of near term interest rate cuts. This has contributed to support for the US dollar, as higher interest rate expectations typically attract capital inflows into dollar denominated assets.
The interaction between monetary policy and geopolitical risk is becoming increasingly complex. Central banks are now required to respond not only to domestic economic indicators but also to external shocks originating from energy markets and international conflicts.
In this environment, currency movements reflect not just economic fundamentals but also expectations regarding central bank behavior under conditions of sustained uncertainty.
While the US dollar remained stable, other major currencies exhibited modest weakness. The euro, yen, and British pound all recorded slight declines, reflecting broader caution in global markets.
The movement of the Chinese yuan, which briefly strengthened to its highest level in several years, adds another dimension to the global currency landscape. This reflects both domestic economic data and broader expectations regarding China’s role in global trade and energy markets.
China’s economic performance, particularly in exports and industrial activity, continues to be closely linked to global energy prices and supply chain dynamics. Strong export growth suggests resilience in external demand, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising production costs.
These currency movements collectively indicate that global markets are navigating a period of uneven economic signals, where regional conditions and geopolitical developments interact in complex ways.
One of the defining characteristics of the current financial environment is the speed at which geopolitical developments translate into market expectations. Currency traders and investors are increasingly sensitive to political signals, particularly those involving energy producing regions and major global powers.
However, despite heightened volatility in oil markets, the US dollar’s stability suggests that investors still view the global financial system as structurally resilient. Rather than anticipating systemic disruption, markets appear to be pricing in cyclical instability followed by eventual stabilization.
This reflects a broader pattern in which financial markets absorb geopolitical shocks through short term volatility without fully abandoning long term confidence in global economic integration.
The stability of the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions highlights a critical feature of contemporary global markets. While energy prices and regional conflicts generate significant short term volatility, currency markets remain anchored by expectations of monetary policy stability and eventual diplomatic resolution.
The current environment is characterized by three overlapping dynamics. First, geopolitical risk is elevated due to sustained conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations. Second, energy markets are highly sensitive to supply disruptions, producing rapid price fluctuations. Third, central bank policy expectations continue to play a stabilizing role in currency valuation.
The anticipated meeting between the United States and China represents a key focal point for market sentiment, as investors look for signals of broader strategic coordination or de escalation. However, the underlying structural tensions in the global system remain unresolved.
Ultimately, the current stability of the dollar should not be interpreted as a sign of reduced risk, but rather as evidence that markets are temporarily balancing competing expectations of conflict, diplomacy, and monetary policy. In such an environment, volatility in commodities and geopolitical headlines may continue, even as major currencies appear relatively stable on the surface.
With information from Reuters.
Published on •Updated
Oil prices surged in early trade as investors digested the latest developments in the Middle East, with both Brent and US crude climbing over 4%.
It comes after Trump’s rejection of Tehran’s response to the latest US proposition on bringing the conflict in Iran, and subsequent impact on trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz, to an end.
In other trading, US futures edged lower, while Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.4% to 62,486.84 after briefly reaching another record high in intraday trading at above 63,300.
South Korea’s Kospi gained 4.1% to 7,804.71. It also hit an all-time intraday high, led by gains from tech-related stocks including Samsung Electronics and memory chip maker SK Hynix.
Technology-related stocks and growing artificial intelligence-related interest have supported markets in Japan and South Korea despite the Iran war, with the Nikkei 225 and Kospi rising more than 10% and 30%, respectively, over the past month.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump will head to China this week for talks with his counterpart, Xi Jinping. The two leaders are expected to discuss a wide range of topics, including trade concerns.
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Oil prices fell back in early trade but remained elevated as investors kept an eye on escalating tensions between the US and Iran and progress on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading 1.38% lower at $112.86 while US crude, or WTI, was down 2.27% at $104 per barrel. US futures edged 0.1% higher.
Elsewhere, regional trading was thin overnight with markets in Japan, South Korea and mainland China closed for holidays.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.1% to 25,805.98. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.5% to 8,649.80, while Taiwan’s Taiex traded 0.2% lower at 40,626.22.
The fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran was tested on Monday after the US military said it had sank six Iranian small boats targeting civilian ships, while two US-flagged ships successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
The key waterway for oil and gas transport remains largely closed despite repeated demands from the US for Iran to reopen the strait and as the United States imposed a sea blockade on Iranian ports. US President Donald Trump’s “Project Freedom” plan under which the United States would help guide stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday.
Brent crude, the international standard, surged above $114 a barrel on Monday, gaining nearly 6%. Before the war began in late February, it was trading near $70.
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The major AI company Anthropic is exploring a potential partnership with the British semiconductor firm Fractile to secure a steady supply of chips for custom inference and reduce the significant overheads associated with current semiconductor solutions.
According to reports, these talks represent a strategic effort by the San Francisco-based firm to decrease its dependency on Nvidia whilst enhancing the speed and efficiency of its current and next-generation models.
As the global demand for generative AI capacity continues to climb, the financial burden of the hardware required to run these systems has become a primary hurdle for developers.
Anthropic, which has received multi-billion-dollar investments from both Amazon and Google, currently relies heavily on Nvidia’s H100 units alongside custom processors provided by its cloud partners.
However, the high market price and limited availability of these industry-standard chips have squeezed profit margins, prompting firms to look elsewhere.
According to industry analysts, a deal with a specialised firm like Fractile could allow Anthropic to exert greater control over its technical infrastructure.
This strategy reflects a broader trend among tech giants, including Microsoft and Meta, who are increasingly moving away from general-purpose chips in favour of internal or boutique designs.
Founded in 2022 by Oxford PhD Walter Goodwin, Fractile has gained significant attention for its unconventional approach to processor design.
Unlike standard chips that must constantly shuttle data between the processor and separate memory modules, Fractile’s “memory-compute fusion” architecture keeps data directly on the chip using static random-access memory, or SRAM, which does not need to be refreshed.
According to the British start-up, this method can run large language models up to a hundred times faster than existing hardware while lowering operational costs by 90%.
While these performance claims are impressive, the technology is still in the development phase.
Fractile has not yet launched a commercial product, and its specialised chips are not expected to be ready for full-scale data centre deployment until 2027.
Despite the long timeline, the start-up is reportedly in negotiations to raise $200 million (€170.5m) in funding at a valuation exceeding $1 billion (€853m).
The potential partnership highlights the growing significance of the UK’s semiconductor sector on the world stage. If a formal agreement is reached, Fractile could become Anthropic’s fourth major chip supplier, joining the ranks of Nvidia, Google and Amazon.
According to market reports, the discussions remain at an early stage and no binding contract has been signed.
However, the interest from a major player such as Anthropic suggests that in the AI race, the ability to deliver faster and cheaper compute power is the defining factor.
Published on
Crude prices were slightly lower ahead of European markets opening as traders digested comments from US President Donald Trump that Washington would help ships leave the Strait of Hormuz from today. Iran, however, has rejected the plan.
At the time of writing, the price of a barrel of US benchmark crude (WTI) was down 0.28% to $101.65 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, edged down 0.06% to $108.10 a barrel.
Much hinges now on progress towards ending the war with Iran and unlocking the bottleneck through the Strait of Hormuz.
The oil market “remains the fulcrum, with hundreds of tankers, bulk carriers, and cargo ships still stranded across the Gulf, idling as storage constraints force producers to shut … production simply because there is nowhere left to store it,” Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a commentary note.
Trump said what he called “Project Freedom” would begin Monday morning in the Middle East. The US Central Command said it would involve guided-missile destroyers, more than 100 aircraft and 15,000 service members, but the Pentagon did not immediately answer questions about how they would be deployed.
In Asian share trading overnight, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng jumped 1.4% to 26,135.47. Markets in mainland China and Japan were closed for “Golden Week” holidays. In Australia, the S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,704.70.
Strong buying of tech stocks pushed shares in South Korea sharply higher, as the Kospi gained 3.8%. Taiwan’s Taiex surged 4.2%.
On Friday, the S&P 500 climbed 0.3% to another all-time high of 7,230.12, closing out a fifth straight winning week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.3% to 49,499.27, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.9% to a record close of 25,114.44.
Apple led the way after delivering better profit than expected. Because it’s one of Wall Street’s biggest stocks in terms of overall size, its rally of 3.3% was by far the strongest force lifting the S&P 500.
Stock prices generally follow the path of corporate profits over the long term, and US companies have been exceeding expectations for earnings in the first three months of 2026. That’s even with the war with Iran and high oil prices souring confidence for many US households.
A little more than a quarter of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported already, and 84% of them have topped analysts’ estimates, according to FactSet. The index is on track to deliver roughly 15% growth in profit from a year earlier.
The main uncertainty for the global economy is where oil prices are heading because of the Iran war. Oil prices moved higher last week on worries that the war might keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for a long time, trapping oil tankers pent up in the Persian Gulf instead of delivering crude to customers worldwide.
Brent was selling for a little more than $70 per barrel before the war began, and soaring prices helped the two biggest U.S. oil companies report stronger profit for the latest quarter than analysts expected. But stock prices nevertheless fell for both Exxon Mobil, 1%, and Chevron, 1.4%, as oil prices regressed Friday and each reported drops in net income from a year earlier.
In other dealings early Monday, the dollar rose to 157.18 Japanese yen from 156.80 yen. The euro fell to $1.1724 from $1.1746.
Chris Weafer, the CEO of Micro-Advisory Partners, says the UAE’s OPEC exit frees one million barrels of spare capacity. He warns Kazakhstan and Venezuela may follow, leaving OPEC far less influential on global oil pricing.
Published On 30 Apr 202630 Apr 2026
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Oil markets face renewed instability following the United Arab Emirates’ formal exit from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its wider alliance (OPEC+), announced on Tuesday and taking effect on Friday.
The move, which ends decades of membership, comes as the global economy continues to reel from the ongoing war with Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place.
Investors are currently weighing the potential for higher future output from the UAE against the immediate and acute risks posed to global supply routes, as well as the increased chances that more countries drop out of OPEC and OPEC+.
Following the announcement, markets reacted swiftly as the potential for oversupply from the UAE was priced in. Oil prices fell by between 2% and 3%, particularly in futures contracts a couple of months ahead.
However, the move was just as quickly offset by the risk premium associated with the Middle East conflict and the current halt to US-Iran negotiations.
At the time of writing, US benchmark crude, WTI, is trading above $105 a barrel, while Brent crude, the international standard, is over $112. Both prices are around 4% higher on Wednesday from the UAE announcement low.
The UAE’s decision follows years of simmering tension between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh over production quotas. The UAE has invested over $150 billion (€128bn) in the state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) to expand its capacity to five million barrels per day.
However, under OPEC’s restrictive framework, much of this capacity remained underutilised, now prompting the government to prioritise its national interest.
The departure of the group’s third-largest producer is a significant blow to the cohesion of the 60-year-old organisation. Maurizio Carulli, global energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot, noted the limitations this exit places on the remaining members.
“Until tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is safe again, OPEC’s ability to stabilise prices is sharply constrained, while US producers have gained outsized influence,” Carulli explained.
While the UAE has pledged to bring additional production to the market in a “gradual and measured” manner, the sudden lack of coordination within OPEC has introduced a new layer of uncertainty.
For the UAE, the blockade served as a final catalyst for its exit. With its primary export route under threat, Abu Dhabi has sought the diplomatic flexibility to forge independent security and trade partnerships outside the traditional cartel structure.
Despite the geopolitical turmoil, energy equities have remained resilient.
According to Carulli, “integrated majors such as BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, ENI, Chevron and ExxonMobil are benefitting from a price uplift that could add 5-10% to operating cash flow for every $10 increase in oil prices.”
In a separate but related development, the security situation in the Middle East remains precarious despite a fragile ceasefire. Iran has recently offered a ten-point proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
In exchange for restoring maritime traffic, Tehran is demanding a full withdrawal of the US naval blockade and an end to the current hostilities.
US President Donald Trump, who recently extended the two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan, described the latest Iranian offer as “much better” than previous iterations but still did not accept the terms.
Shortly after, Trump posted on social media claiming that Iran is in a dire and desperate condition with no leverage to negotiate.
Washington continues to insist on a permanent settlement regarding Iran’s nuclear programme and an “unconditional” reopening of the waterway before sanctions are lifted.
The impact of this blockade on global energy security cannot be overstated.
“The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed roughly 12% of global oil supply from the market, according to the IEA, a bigger disruption than the Yom Kippur war, the Iran‑Iraq conflict, the invasion of Kuwait or even the fallout from Ukraine,” Carulli highlighted.
A HUGE new “world class new visit destination” is set to open in the UK.
Xanadoo is a new indoor attraction concept that has been designed by some of the people behind the Eden Project.
They claim it will be “unlike any other museum” with massive playgrounds, art areas and food halls, as well as being educational.
When guests arrive, the will be a market hall with food and drink stalls.
The first area is the “Road to Happiness” with a series of art installations along the way.
Then there is “The Gallery of Marvellous Situations” which they say will take people “back in time” using immersive experiences.
The Playground in the third area, with images showing slides, a huge helter skelter, climbing structures, mazes, and even a life-size snakes and ladders.
Then in the fourth area is “Tomorrow’s World” with futuristic designs showing the world in hundreds of years time.
“Call to Action” is the final area, which has a life-size “game” with levers and dials that show the impact on the current world.
The entire attraction ‘will bring “science and art” together, and be for all ages.
The cost of the project hasn’t been revealed, but it is thought that £840million will be brought to the local economy, they predict.
They hope it will encourage year-round visitors, including families and school trips as well as locals.
Where it will be built is also yet to be revealed, although they are looking at locations across South Wales.
Gaynor Coley, co-founder of the Eden Project, told local media: “We believe Xanadoo can do the same for South Wales as the Eden Project did for Cornwall.
“An economic impact assessment has just been carried out and it has bought £6 billion to Cornwall and the West Country which is more than the whole of European funding and we’d like to do the same for South Wales.
“It will bring sustainable tourism, support hospitality and creativity, storytelling, digital and health and wellbeing.”
Eden Project opened in Cornwall back in 2020, and remains the only one of its kind.
However, a second site – Eden Project Morecambe – is set to open next year.
Other planned Eden Projects include Scotland as well as Costa Rica, China and Australia.
And another huge indoor attraction set to open in the UK is Therme Manchester, a massive water resort with pools, slides and spas.
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Germany’s Dax, France’s CAC 40, Italy’s FTSE MIB and the UK’s FTSE 100 are expected to open in the green, according to IG data, despite peace talks between the US and Iran coming to a halt.
The White House called off plans to send envoys to Pakistan for more negotiations and US President Donald Trump cited a lack of progress over the weekend.
“If they want, we can talk but we’re not sending people,” Trump told Fox News on Sunday. He said earlier on social media: “All they have to do is call!!!”
In addition to monitoring progress in the Middle East, investors will also be keeping across central bank decisions this week, including from the ECB and Federal Reserve.
Meanwhile, markets were mixed overnight in the Asia-Pacific region. Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index hit a fresh record, surging 1.4% to 60,564.18. The Kospi in South Korea jumped 2.1% to 6,617.94. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index edged 0.1% lower to 25,951.86 and the Shanghai Composite index was up 0.2% at 4,089.04. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3% to 8,759.40.
Taiwan’s Taiex rallied 2.6%, helped by a revival of buying of tech shares driven by the boom in artificial intelligence.
In other dealings early Monday, the price for a barrel of Brent crude to be delivered in July, rose $1.44 to $100.57, while US benchmark crude oil added $1.28 to $95.65.
The dollar fell to 159.34 Japanese yen from 159.59. The euro climbed to $1.1723 from $1.1701.
U.S. oil sanctions swings add uncertainty for markets, global trade
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