Maduro

Republican strategist Adolfo Franco talks about the threat of US military action against Venezuela and what he thinks is the Trump administration’s desired outcome.

The United States’ deadly “counter-narcotics mission” off Venezuela’s coast hinges on an unproven drug-smuggling narrative – a familiar pretext for regime change, and one the mainstream media have been quick to echo. Meanwhile, Venezuelans face escalating repression at home.

Contributors:
Spencer Ackerman – Author, Reign of Terror and Waller vs Wildstorm
Abby Martin – Journalist, The Empire Files
Miguel Tinker Salas – Professor, Latin American history, Pomona College
“Pablo” – Anonymous Venezuelan journalist

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Israeli settler violence in the West Bank has surged to unprecedented levels, driven by a fringe movement whose far-right ideology has been amplified and normalised across Israeli news outlets. The Listening Post’s Nic Muirhead reports on the movement’s growing power and the media ecosystem enabling its rise.

Featuring:
Hilla Dayan – Sociologist, University of Amsterdam
Nimrod Nir – Political psychologist, Hebrew University of Jerusalem / Director, AGAM Labs
Oren Ziv – Photojournalist, +972 Magazine

Nov. 26 (UPI) — Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro donned military fatigues, wielded Simon Bolivar’s sword and urged Venezuelans to defend the nation against U.S. aggression during a rally in Caracas.

Maduro held the rally in Caracas on Tuesday to commemorate the 200th anniversary of the nation’s liberation and told attendees that it is their duty to oppose foreign aggressors in the manner of Venezuelan hero Bolivar, who led a successful revolt against the Spanish, The Guardian reported.

The rally was held in response to the Trump administration’s military strikes against alleged drug traffickers and the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group in the Caribbean Sea near Venezuela.

“We have to be capable of defending every inch of this blessed land from any sort of imperialist threat or aggression, wherever it comes from,” Maduro said while holding Bolivar’s unsheathed sword in his right hand.

“I swear before our Lord Jesus Christ that I will give my all for the victory of Venezuela,” Maduro said.

The U.S. military has killed more than 80 while carrying out more than 20 aerial strikes on small vessels said to carry illicit drugs destined for the United States and Europe over the past four months, according to Time.

President Donald Trump also has accused Maduro of being a drug trafficker and a leader of the Cartel de los Soles, which the Trump administration on Monday designated as a foreign terrorist group, along with the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua, which infiltrated the United States during the Biden administration.

The United States has placed a $50 million bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest, and Trump has authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela.

He also has threatened to drop leaflets over Venezuelan cities to encourage a revolt against Maduro, who has been accused of claiming victory in the nation’s 2024 presidential election despite exit polling strongly suggesting he lost.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Wednesday accused the United States of “bullying” Venezuela and expressed support for the nation and Maduro.

Iranian leaders have accused the Trump administration of trying to destabilize the governments of Iran and Venezuela and maintain close ties with Maduro and Venezuela.

The tensions between the United States and Venezuela prompted a cautionary notice regarding international flights in the region from the Federal Aviation Administration.

Many international airlines have canceled flights to Venezuela, which has some travelers stranded in Caracas.

As U.S. President Donald Trump continues to mull his options for dealing with Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth arrived in the Caribbean to meet with regional leaders. The visit comes as the U.S. has built up a large military presence in the region and the world awaits what Trump will do next. You can catch up with our most recent coverage of the Caribbean operation in our story here.

“The Secretary will meet with President Luis Abinader, Minister of Defense Lt. Gen. Carlos Antonio Fernández Onofre and Cabinet officials to strengthen defense relationships and reaffirm America’s commitment to defend the homeland, protect our regional partners and ensure stability and security across the Americas,” according to the Pentagon. His visit follows a trip to the region by Air Force Gen. Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who returned to Washington last night.

Though Trump says he is open to discussions with Maduro that could avoid hostilities, the South American leader continues to show outward displays of defiance.

On Tuesday, Trump remained coy about his intentions for what has been dubbed Operation Southern Spear, ostensibly a counter-narcotics effort but one also aimed at pressuring Maduro.

“I might talk to him. We’ll see,” Trump told reporters Tuesday night aboard Air Force One in reference to Maduro. “But we’re discussing that with the different staffs. We might talk.”

Asked why he would want to talk to Maduro after his administration designated the cartel he allegedly leads a foreign terrorist organization (FTO), Trump noted that the Venezuelan leader has two options. As we previously discussed, the FTO designation opens the aperture on the ability for Trump to order kinetic operations against Venezuela.

“If we can save lives, we can do things the easy way, that’s fine,” Trump explained. “And if we have to do it the hard way that’s fine, too… I’m not going to tell you what the goal is. You should probably know what the goal is. But, they’ve caused a lot of problems. And they’ve sent millions of people into our country.”

PRESIDENT TRUMP on potential talks with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro: “If we can save lives, if we can do things the easy way, that’s fine. And if we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too.” pic.twitter.com/g8pxPvcfgv

— Fox News (@FoxNews) November 26, 2025

For his part, Maduro tried to exude an aura of confidence on Tuesday, invoking the memory of national hero Simon Bolivar to rally a nation under the gun. You cannot travel far in Caracas or much of the rest of the country without coming upon a memorial to Bolivar, who liberated the country from Spain 200 years ago and remains highly revered.

Speaking at an event honoring that liberation, Maduro urged Venezuelans to fight “foreign aggressors” just as Bolivar did.

“We have to be capable of defending every inch of this blessed land from any sort of imperialist threat or aggression, wherever it comes from,” Maduro, clad in camouflage from head to toe, exclaimed. “I swear before our Lord Jesus Christ, that I will give my all for the victory of Venezuela.”

“We must be ready to defend every inch of this blessed land from imperialist threat or aggression, no matter where it comes from,” Maduro continued as he brandished a sword believed to have once belonged to Bolivar. “There is no excuse for anyone to fail at this decisive moment, for the existence of the Republic, no excuse.”

While the Trump administration insists that its efforts are ultimately aimed at stopping the flow of drugs into the United States, the president of Colombia told CNN that there is another motivation for the large military buildup.

Oil “is at the heart of the matter,” Gustavo Petro claimed to CNN in an exclusive interview, noting that Venezuela has what are considered the largest oil reserves in the world.

“So, that’s a negotiation about oil. I believe that is (US President Donald) Trump’s logic. He’s not thinking about the democratization of Venezuela, let alone the narco-trafficking,” he continued, adding that Venezuela is not considered a major drug producer and that only a relatively small portion of the global drugs trade flows through the country.”

Of course, Petro’s point of view has to be seen as coming from a leader who has been at odds with Trump. Since the American president returned to the White House, Petro “has harshly criticized the Trump administration’s immigration policies, its support for Israel and its military activity around Latin America,” the cable network noted. Trump, meanwhile, has sanctioned Petro for a perceived lack of support in drug interdiction efforts.

“Trump is not thinking about the democratization of Venezuela, let alone the narcotrafficking. It’s about oil.”

Colombian President Gustavo Petro speaks exclusively to @IsaCNN about why the US president is targeting Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. pic.twitter.com/EtjYsQVIuS

— CNN International PR (@cnnipr) November 25, 2025

Whether Trump is considering offering Maduro an off-ramp before what could be airstrikes on targets in Venezuela or a covert action to depose the South American strongman remains unknown. However, there are indications that Maduro is not interested in a negotiated exit from power.

“The calculation for Maduro is that he will always be safer here than anywhere else,” Phil Gunson, an analyst in Caracas for the International Crisis Group, told The Wall Street Journal.

With a $50 million bounty on his head as the result of being a fugitive from U.S. drug charges, Maduro likely feels unsafe outside his cocoon of protection in Venezuela. 

Beyond that, the list of countries that would take him and provide security is short. Russia or Cuba might, but as the Journal noted, refuge in a European capital or elsewhere would bring limited security from those seeking not just material reward, but also revenge after years of what many consider a despotic rule.

The public statements issued by both Trump and Maduro in recent days contrast with previous sentiments. While Trump has left speaking with Maduro as an option, he reportedly privately turned down de-escalation overtures from the South American leader. Meanwhile, though Maduro is putting on a brave face, it was said that he was open to leaving power in exchange for amnesty for him and his lieutenants, the lifting of the bounty and a comfortable exile, according to claims in a report from The Atlantic.

Meanwhile, there are 15,000 U.S. troops, a dozen ships and an array of aircraft in the Caribbean waiting for orders. To highlight that presence, the military has produced a steady stream of videos pushed out on social media. They show U.S. forces on ships like the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, or land-based in Puerto Rico, training and preparing.

An F/A-18E Super Hornet launches from the flight deck of the world’s largest aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), in the western Atlantic Ocean.

U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of #OpSouthernSpear.… pic.twitter.com/9mb4sJocJP

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) November 26, 2025

The flight deck never sleeps.

The world’s largest aircraft carrier, Ford-class aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78), conducts night flight operations in the Caribbean Sea. 

U.S. military forces are deployed to the Caribbean in support of the U.S. Southern Command… pic.twitter.com/sZwhTiH5J2

— U.S. Navy (@USNavy) November 25, 2025

These visuals are part of the Trump administration’s increasing pressure campaign on Maduro. On Nov. 24, Air Forces Southern Command publicized another Bomber Attack Demonstration, with B-52H Stratofortresses from Minot Air Force Base conducting the mission in the Caribbean. It was at least the second such demonstration in a week.

As we explained in an earlier story, the B-52s “are capable of unleashing waves of standoff cruise missiles and can carry a host of other conventional munitions that can be employed against targets on land and at sea. Though the Venezuelan armed forces have limited air defense capabilities, they could still pose a threat. Standoff strikes from aircraft like the B-52 and other assets would be a likely component of any future U.S. direct action against targets inside the country to help reduce risks to friendly forces. They could even target air defense systems to help clear the way for follow-on operations.”

.@usairforce B-52H long-range bombers from @TeamMinot conducted a Bomber Attack Demo in the Caribbean Sea in support of Operation Southern Spear, bringing Hemispheric security & stability, Nov 24. During the mission, USAF integrated with fighter jets & trained on rapid mobility. pic.twitter.com/cQAhMJMV5c

— Air Forces Southern (@AFSOUTH) November 26, 2025

All the while, American men and women will spend another holiday away from home, a fact of life in the service. Whether they will be pressed into action against Maduro remains unknown.

Contact the author: [email protected]

The world’s largest aircraft carrier and its dozens of fighter aircraft are now in the Caribbean Sea, joining the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. Meanwhile, the State Department announced Sunday that it plans to designate the drug cartel allegedly headed by Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) on Nov. 24, widening the aperture for potential military actions. These moves are the latest escalation of pressure on the South American leader, as the world awaits U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision on what, if any, further military actions he will take.

Sunday night, Trump appeared to offer a carrot to Maduro, saying he would be willing to open up a dialogue with the embattled Venezuelan leader.

“We may be having some discussions with Maduro,” Trump told reporters before boarding Air Force One in West Palm Beach. “They would like to talk… I talk to everybody.”

Trump did not elaborate; however, in private, he has talked to aides about Venezuela’s huge oil reserves, estimated at 300 billion barrels, the largest in the world, The New York Times claimed in a recent article. Trump has reportedly had an offer from Maduro that would give the U.S. rights to much of that oil in return for forestalling military action. While the American president called off those talks, a senior administration official told the Times that they were not entirely dead. The deployment of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and three of its escort ships, the official added, was a means to gain leverage over Maduro.

Trump on Sunday added that while he will notify Congress about what he will ultimately decide, he doesn’t need their permission to strike Venezuela.

“We’re stopping drugs from coming into our country,” the U.S. president continued. “I told [Secretary of State] Marco [Rubio]  – go to Congress and let them know we’re not letting drugs come through Mexico, we’re not letting them come through Venezuela, and let Congress know about it. We don’t have to get their approval. But I think letting them know is good. The only thing I don’t want them to do is leak information… and they put our military at risk.” 

On Sunday, the administration also announced two major sticks it could use against Maduro.

The Ford and its escorts – the Arleigh Burke class guided-missile destroyers USS Bainbridge, USS Mahan, and USS Winston S. Churchill (DDG 81) – arrived in the Caribbean, according to a Navy release. A U.S. official told The War Zone on Monday that the aircraft carrier was in the vicinity of Puerto Rico, which puts it roughly 700 miles north of the Venezuelan capital of Caracas and the epicenter of the military buildup in the region.

The Ford brings with it a great deal of additional capability to the newly named Joint Task Force Southern Spear, the enhanced counter-narcotics operation for which these forces have ostensibly been gathered. There are four squadrons of F/A-18 Super Hornets, a squadron of E/A-18 Growler electronic warfare jets, a squadron of E-2D Advanced Hawkeye airborne command and control aircraft, MH-60S and MH-60R Seahawk helicopters and a detachment of C-2A Greyhound carrier onboard delivery planes.

There were already seven Navy surface warships plus support vessels, a special operations mothership and aircraft, including F-35B stealth fighters, MQ-9 Reaper drones, P-8 wartime patrol aircraft, AC-130 Ghostrider gunships and about 15,000 U.S. personnel deployed to the region. Beyond that, there are “site surveys ongoing to see if even more military assets should be sent to the region,” a U.S. official told The War Zone on Nov. 7.

As the Navy highlighted that the Ford had crossed into the Caribbean, Rubio on Sunday announced that he “intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO), effective November 24, 2025.”

“Based in Venezuela, the Cartel de los Soles is headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary,” according to a State Department release. “Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government. Cartel de los Soles by and with other designated FTOs including Tren de Aragua and the Sinaloa Cartel are responsible for terrorist violence throughout our hemisphere as well as for trafficking drugs into the United States and Europe.”

.@StateDept intends to designate Cartel de los Soles as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Headed by the illegitimate Nicolás Maduro, the group has corrupted the institutions of government in Venezuela and is responsible for terrorist violence conducted by and with other…

— Secretary Marco Rubio (@SecRubio) November 16, 2025

Venezuelan political circles see the State Department’s move “as an ultimatum: a final window for Maduro to negotiate his exit or face what many see as the most serious U.S. threat to his rule to date,” The Miami Herald reported, “as the U.S. deploys the largest concentration of military assets in the Caribbean in decades.”

Trump on Sunday said designating Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization allows the U.S. military authority to target Maduro’s assets and infrastructure inside Venezuela.

“It allows us to do that, but we haven’t said we’re going to do that,” Trump explained. 

ÚLTIMA HORA | Trump dice que designación del Cartel de los Soles “permite” que Washington ataque los activos de Maduro en Venezuela.

“Nos permite hacer eso, pero no hemos dicho que vamos a hacer eso, y podríamos discutir (con Venezuela)”, aseguró. https://t.co/qgzJv2atKC pic.twitter.com/j6zeVpWIDp

— AlbertoRodNews (@AlbertoRodNews) November 17, 2025

U.S. Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez, a Republican from Miami and fierce Maduro critic, lauded the State Department action.

“Remember that by designating the Cartel of the Suns as a foreign terrorist organization, it allows us to attack them militarily within the framework of U.S. law,” he stated on X. “Then they can’t say they weren’t warned. It’s almost over.”

🚨#SOSVenezuela Acuérdense que al designar al Cartel de los Soles como una organización terrorista extranjera, nos permite atacarlos militarmente dentro del marco legal estadounidense.

Luego que no digan que no se les avisó.

Queda poco.

— Rep. Carlos A. Gimenez (@RepCarlos) November 17, 2025

While he said on Friday that he “sorta made up my mind” on what to do about Maduro, Trump appeared noncommittal on Sunday.

So far, U.S. kinetic actions against the cartels have been limited to strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats. On Nov. 15, the U.S. carried out the 22nd known attack, which combined have killed at least 80 people. The majority of those strikes were carried out by the MQ-9s and some by the AC-130 Ghostriders, as we have noted.

These attacks, however, have been criticized for being extrajudicial strikes without Congressional authorization. The administration has justified the strikes by declaring drug cartels to be “unlawful combatants,” and Trump has claimed, without proof, that each sunken boat has saved 25,000 American lives, presumably from overdoses. 

On Nov. 15, at the direction of Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Joint Task Force Southern Spear conducted a lethal kinetic strike on a vessel operated by a Designated Terrorist Organization. Intelligence confirmed that the vessel was involved in illicit narcotics smuggling,… pic.twitter.com/iM1PhIsroj

— U.S. Southern Command (@Southcom) November 16, 2025

If expanded strikes on land targets occur after the November 24th horizon, they could be limited to strictly cartel and drug production target sets that do not include state facilities. These could include labs, logistical nodes, such as port facilities, and cartel personnel. Striking military installations and other state infrastructure that the U.S. believes actively facilitate the drug trade would be a further escalation. Going directly after the Maduro regime and its military capabilities as a whole would be the farthest rung up the escalation ladder.

For his part, Maduro seems to be wavering between acquiescence and bravado.

On Nov. 15, Maduro sang John Lennon’s iconic peace anthem “Imagine” during a rally with supporters. Maduro urged calm, repeating “Peace, peace, peace” while government officials made peace signs on stage.

However, at the same rally, Maduro showed defiance, essentially telling the Trump administration to mind its own business.

“The U.S. wants to rule the world but ignores its own millions without housing, food, education, or battling addiction,” the Venezuelan strong man proclaimed. “They want to ‘save’ others with weapons. First, save yourselves; we know what to do with Venezuela.”

Venezuelan President Maduro:

The U.S. wants to rule the world but ignores its own millions without housing, food, education, or battling addiction.

They want to “save” others with weapons.

First save yourselves; we know what to do with Venezuela. pic.twitter.com/ml1CoNfCeN

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) November 16, 2025

What will happen next is anyone’s guess. By law, Congress has seven days to review the State Department’s designation of Cartel de los Soles as an FTO. However, as we noted earlier in this story, Trump has hinted that he doesn’t need Congressional approval to attack Venezuela. In addition, it should be noted that Trump’s reported suggestions that potential adversaries want to talk are not necessarily a sign of impending calm.

On June 15, during the crisis about Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, Trump said Iran would “like to make a deal. They’re talking. They continue to talk,” adding that there was “no deadline” on the talks. Just six days later, the U.S. attacked three Iranian nuclear facilities in an operation dubbed Midnight Hammer.

As tensions in the Caribbean continue to simmer, we will provide updates when warranted.

Update 3:46 PM Eastern –

Speaking to reporters at the White House Monday afternoon, Trump was asked if he has ruled out putting U.S. troops in Venezuela.

“No, I don’t rule out that,” he answered. “I don’t rule out anything.”

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WASHINGTON — The nation’s most advanced aircraft carrier arrived in the Caribbean Sea on Sunday in a display of U.S. military power, raising questions about what the new influx of troops and weaponry could signal for the Trump administration’s drug enforcement campaign in South America.

The arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford, announced by the U.S. military in a news release, marks a major moment in what the Trump administration says is an antidrug operation but has been seen as an escalating pressure tactic against Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. Since early September, U.S. strikes have killed at least 80 people in 20 attacks on small boats accused of transporting drugs in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean.

The Ford rounds off the largest buildup of U.S. firepower in the region in generations, bringing the total number of troops to around 12,000 on nearly a dozen Navy ships in what Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has dubbed Operation Southern Spear.

The Ford’s carrier strike group, which includes squadrons of fighter jets and guided-missile destroyers, transited the Anegada Passage near the British Virgin Islands on Sunday morning, the Navy said in a statement.

Rear Adm. Paul Lanzilotta, who commands the Ford’s carrier strike group, said it will bolster an already large force of American warships to “protect our nation’s security and prosperity against narco-terrorism in the Western Hemisphere.”

The administration has maintained that the buildup of warships is focused on stopping the flow of drugs into the U.S., but it has released no evidence to support its assertions that those killed in the boats were “narco-terrorists.” An Associated Press report recently found that those killed included Venezuelan fishermen and other impoverished men earning a few hundred dollars per trip.

President Trump has indicated military action would expand beyond strikes by sea, saying the U.S. would “stop the drugs coming in by land.”

The U.S. has long used aircraft carriers to pressure and deter aggression by other nations because their warplanes can strike targets deep inside another country. Some experts say the Ford is ill-suited to fighting cartels, but it could be an effective instrument of intimidation for Maduro in a push to get him to step down.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the United States does not recognize Maduro, who was widely accused of stealing last year’s election, as Venezuela’s legitimate leader. Rubio has called Venezuela’s government a “transshipment organization” that openly cooperates with those trafficking drugs.

Maduro, who faces charges of narco-terrorism in the U.S., has said the government in Washington is “fabricating” a war against him. Venezuela’s government recently touted a “massive” mobilization of troops and civilians to defend against possible U.S. attacks.

Trump has justified the attacks on drug boats by saying the U.S. is in “armed conflict” with drug cartels while claiming the boats are operated by foreign terrorist organizations.

He has faced skepticism and opposition from leaders in the region, the United Nations human rights chief and U.S. lawmakers, including Republicans, who have pressed for more information on who is being targeted and the legal justification for the boat strikes.

Senate Republicans, however, recently voted to reject legislation that would have put a check on Trump’s ability to launch an attack against Venezuela without congressional authorization.

Experts disagree on whether or not American warplanes may be used to strike land targets inside Venezuela. Either way, the 100,000-ton warship is sending a message.

“This is the anchor of what it means to have U.S. military power once again in Latin America,” said Elizabeth Dickinson, the International Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Andes region. “And it has raised a lot of anxieties in Venezuela but also throughout the region. I think everyone is watching this with sort of bated breath to see just how willing the U.S. is to really use military force.”

Finley writes for the Associated Press.

Nov. 12 (UPI) — President Nicolás Maduro announced activation of a “higher phase” of the Independence Plan 200, a program of joint civilian-military exercises designed to test Venezuela’s ability to respond to external threats.

The deployment includes the Bolivarian National Armed Forces, or FANB, the Bolivarian Militia and police units across all states, with a focus on Apure, Cojedes, Carabobo and the capital region, TeleSURTV reported.

The measure, announced Tuesday by Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, aims to “strengthen territorial defense and enhance operational readiness” amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Caribbean.

Activation of this “higher phase” coincides with the arrival of the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford in the region under the U.S. Southern Command.

The U.S. Department of Defense said the deployment is part of an operation aimed at “disrupting narcotics trafficking and dismantling transnational criminal organizations” operating in the region. However, the Venezuelan government has interpreted the move as a “provocation.”

According to Venezuela’s Defense Ministry, the new stage of the Independence Plan 200 includes command, control and communications exercises, along with simultaneous air, land, naval and river operations, the newspaper Ámbito reported.

The government described it as an “advanced phase” of the plan launched in September, aimed at ensuring “active resistance and permanent defense” against what it calls pressure and maneuvers by the United States.

Alongside the heightened military alert, the government enacted the Law of the Command for the Comprehensive Defense of the Nation, approved days earlier by the National Assembly.

The law establishes a network of comprehensive defense commands at the national, regional and municipal levels to coordinate the armed forces, civilian institutions and citizens in the “protection of sovereignty and peace.”

Maduro signed the law at the Miraflores Palace on Wednesday, invoking Article 326 of the Constitution, which defines the people’s shared responsibility in national defense. The president said he was prepared to confront any threat and ordered the immediate creation of the new commands.

“The order must be activated so that the comprehensive defense commands are established, structured and begin their work, to be prepared, if we as a republic and as a people are called to take up armed struggle to defend this sacred legacy of the liberators, to be ready to win, to triumph through patriotism and courage,” Maduro said, according to a report by NTN24.

These groups will be led by the Strategic Operational Command of the Armed Forces, which will oversee the integration, planning, coordination, supervision and control of the country’s defense organizations in support of military operations nationwide.

The government sees the legislation as a step toward strengthening its civilian-military defense doctrine, while analysts and opposition figures warn it could expand the militarization of the country and the political role of the armed forces.

As the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier sails to the Caribbean, the U.S. military continues striking drug-carrying boats off the Venezuelan coast and the Trump administration debates what to do about Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro, one thing seems certain: Venezuela and the western hemisphere would all be better off if Maduro packed his bags and spent his remaining years in exile.

This is certainly what Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is working toward. This year’s Nobel Prize laureate has spent much of her time recently in the U.S. lobbying policymakers to squeeze Maduro into vacating power. Constantly at risk of detention in her own country, Machado is granting interviews and dialing into conferences to advocate for regime change. Her talking points are clearly tailored for the Trump administration: Maduro is the head of a drug cartel that is poisoning Americans; his dictatorship rests on weak pillars; and the forces of democracy inside Venezuela are fully prepared to seize the mantle once Maduro is gone. “We are ready to take over government,” Machado told Bloomberg News in an October interview.

But as the old saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. While there’s no disputing that Maduro is a despot and a fraud who steals elections, U.S. policymakers can’t simply take what Machado is saying for granted. Washington learned this the hard way in the lead-up to the war in Iraq, when an opposition leader named Ahmed Chalabi sold U.S. policymakers a bill of goods about how painless rebuilding a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq would be. We all know how the story turned out — the United States stumbled into an occupation that sucked up U.S. resources, unleashed unpredicted regional consequences and proved more difficult than its proponents originally claimed.

To be fair, Machado is no Chalabi. The latter was a fraudster; the former is the head of an opposition movement whose candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, won two-thirds of the vote during the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election (Maduro claimed victory anyway and forced González into exile). But just because her motives are good doesn’t mean we shouldn’t question her assertions.

Would regime change in Caracas produce the Western-style democracy Machado and her supporters anticipate? None of us can rule it out. But the Trump administration can’t bank on this as the outcome of a post-Maduro future. Other scenarios are just as likely, if not more so — and some of them could lead to greater violence for Venezuelans and more problems for U.S. policy in Latin America.

The big problem with regime change is you can never be entirely sure what will happen after the incumbent leader is removed. Such operations are by their very nature dangerous and destabilizing; political orders are deliberately shattered, the haves become have-nots, and constituencies used to holding the reins of power suddenly find themselves as outsiders. When Hussein was deposed in Iraq, the military officers, Ba’ath Party loyalists and regime-tied sycophants who ruled the roost for nearly a quarter-century were forced to make do with an entirely new situation. The Sunni-dominated structure was overturned, and members of the Shia majority, previously oppressed, were now eagerly taking their place at the top of the system. This, combined with the U.S. decision to bar anyone associated with the old regime from serving in state positions, fed the ingredients for a large-scale insurgency that challenged the new government, precipitated a civil war and killed tens of thousands of Iraqis.

Regime change can also create total absences of authority, as it did in Libya after the 2011 U.S.-NATO intervention there. Much like Maduro today, Moammar Kadafi was a reviled figure whose demise was supposed to pave the way for a democratic utopia in North Africa. The reality was anything but. Instead, Kadafi’s removal sparked conflict between Libya’s major tribal alliances, competing governments and the proliferation of terrorist groups in a country just south of the European Union. Fifteen years later, Libya remains a basket case of militias, warlords and weak institutions.

Unlike Iraq and Libya, Venezuela has experience in democratic governance. It held relatively free and fair elections in the past and doesn’t suffer from the types of sectarian rifts associated with states in the Middle East.

Still, this is cold comfort for those expecting a democratic transition. Indeed, for such a transition to be successful, the Venezuelan army would have to be on board with it, either by sitting on the sidelines as Maduro’s regime collapses, actively arresting Maduro and his top associates, or agreeing to switch its support to the new authorities. But again, this is a tall order, particularly for an army whose leadership is a core facet of the Maduro regime’s survival, has grown used to making obscene amounts of money from illegal activity under the table and whose members are implicated in human rights abuses. The very same elites who profited handsomely from the old system would have to cooperate with the new one. This doesn’t appear likely, especially if their piece of the pie will shrink the moment Maduro leaves.

Finally, while regime change might sound like a good remedy to the problem that is Venezuela, it might just compound the difficulties over time. Although Maduro’s regime’s remit is already limited, its complete dissolution could usher in a free-for-all between elements of the former government, drug trafficking organizations and established armed groups like the Colombian National Liberation Army, which have long treated Venezuela as a base of operations. Any post-Maduro government would have difficulty managing all of this at the same time it attempts to restructure the Venezuelan economy and rebuild its institutions. The Trump administration would then be facing the prospect of Venezuela serving as an even bigger source of drugs and migration, the very outcome the White House is working to prevent.

In the end, María Corina Machado could prove to be right. But she is selling a best-case assumption. The U.S. shouldn’t buy it. Democracy after Maduro is possible but is hardly the only possible result — and it’s certainly not the most likely.

Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities.

Arrival of US aircraft carrier off Latin America fuels speculation that US could try to overthrow Venezuelan government.

The Venezuelan government has said it is preparing its armed forces in the event of an invasion or military attack by the United States.

A statement shared by Minister of People’s Power for Defence Vladimir Padrino on Tuesday said that the preparations include the “massive deployment of ground, aerial, naval, riverine and missile forces”, as well as the participation of police, militias and citizens’ units.

The announcement comes as the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in the region fuels speculation of possible military action aimed at collapsing the government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a longtime US rival.

Tensions between the two countries have escalated since the return of US President Donald Trump for a second term in January.

On Tuesday, the Pentagon confirmed that the Gerald R Ford Carrier Strike Group — which includes the world’s largest aircraft carrier — had arrived in the Caribbean Sea, bearing at least 4,000 sailors as well as “tactical aircraft”.

In recent weeks, the US government has also surged troops to areas near the Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, El Salvador, Panama and Trinidad and Tobago, for training exercises and other operations.

The Trump administration has framed such deployments as necessary “to disrupt illicit drug trafficking and protect the homeland”. Trump officials have also accused Maduro of masterminding the activities of Tren de Aragua, a Venezuelan gang with a relatively modest presence in the US.

But Maduro and his allies have accused the US of “imperialistic” aims.

Questions remain, however, about whether Venezuela is equipped to fend off any US military advances.

Experts say the Maduro government has sought to project an image of military preparedness in the face of a large buildup of US forces in the Caribbean, but it could face difficulties from a lack of personnel and up-to-date equipment.

While the government has used possible US intervention to rally support, Maduro is also struggling with widespread discontent at home and growing diplomatic isolation following a contested election in 2024, marred by allegations of widespread fraud and a crackdown on protesters.

The military buildup in the Caribbean region began after the start of a series of US military strikes on September 2.

The US has carried out at least 19 air strikes against alleged drug-trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific Ocean, killing approximately 75 people.

Trump has suggested that land strikes “are going to be next”. But when asked in late October whether he was considering attacks within Venezuela, Trump replied, “No”.

Legal experts say that a military attack on Venezuela would likely violate international law, and recent polling from the research firm YouGov suggests that about 47 percent of people in the US would oppose land attacks on Venezuelan territory. About 19 percent, meanwhile, say they would support such attacks.

While Venezuela’s armed forces have expressed support for Maduro and said they would resist a US attack, the Reuters news agency has reported that the government has struggled to provide members of the armed forces with adequate food and supplies.

The use of additional paramilitary and police forces could represent an effort to plug the holes in Venezuela’s lacklustre military capacity. Reuters reported that a government memo includes plans for small units at about 280 locations, where they could use sabotage and guerrilla tactics for “prolonged resistance” against any potential US incursion.

The US president sent mixed signals over his plans for Venezuela as his military build-up in the Caribbean continues.

President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals over the potential for a United States military intervention in Venezuela, as he dismissed talk of “war” but threatened the South American country’s leader.

During a CBS interview, released on Sunday, the president warned that President Nicholas Maduro’s days are numbered. The comment came amid a build-up of US military units in the Caribbean, where the US has conducted multiple strikes on alleged drug-trafficking vessels that UN officials and scholars say are in clear violation of US and international law.

Asked if the US was going to war against Venezuela, Trump replied: “I doubt it. I don’t think so.”

However, when asked if Maduro’s days as president were numbered, the president replied: “I would say yeah. I think so.”

US media outlets have reported that Washington is planning strikes on military installations in Venezuela as part of its war against “narco-terrorism”.

Trump appeared to deny that he is planning attacks inside Venezuela, although he did not rule the idea out completely.

“I wouldn’t be inclined to say that I would do that,” he said. “I’m not going to tell you what I’m going to do with Venezuela.”

Maduro, who faces indictment in the US on drug trafficking charges, has accused Washington of using a drug offensive as a pretext for “imposing regime change” in Caracas to seize Venezuelan oil.

The US military has carried out more than a dozen strikes on vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific in recent weeks, killing at least 65 people. The campaign has prompted criticism from governments across the region.

UN human rights chief Volker Turk and rights groups say the attacks, which began in early September, amount to “extrajudicial killings” even if they target known traffickers.

Washington has yet to make public any evidence that its targets were smuggling narcotics or posed a threat to the US.