jubilant nithya raman

A jubilant Nithya Raman stood before cheering supporters at her election night party Tuesday, giving a speech that fell just shy of declaring victory, but one that urged the crowd at the Greek Theatre plaza to hold off on the celebrations for now.

“I’m hopeful. I’m very hopeful,” Raman told a raucous crowd fueled by tequila and chicken tenders. “I’m also really superstitious. So we’re all just going to be cool, okay? Very cool.”

The initial vote tally Tuesday had Raman slightly behind incumbent Karen Bass in the race for Los Angeles mayor, but analysts were quick to point out that this was actually a strong indication that Raman would win. Polls have consistently shown Raman is heavily favored by younger voters, who tend to vote later than older people and whose late-arriving ballots are considered likely to turn the tide in her favor.

“The expectation is that once Nithya Raman starts gaining votes she will continue to gain votes. There is not going to be a seesaw. It is likely going to be pretty unidirectional,” said Paul Mitchell, who heads the polling data firm PDI. “I don’t call races. But if that expectation holds true then there is no reason to expect that Raman is going to do anything but gain votes from here.”

Votes were still being counted the day after the election, but by early Wednesday morning, Raman had taken a slight lead over Bass.

“Nithya Raman is going to win. She’s going to be our next mayor,” said a gleeful L.A. County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath, who has clashed with Bass and endorsed Raman a few weeks before the election.

“It’s over,” declared Estevan Montemayor, who ran an independent expenditure group supporting Raman.

Across town at the Loews Hollywood Hotel, Bass projected confidence on Tuesday night that she would triumph in her reelection bid.

“Let me just say it takes a while to count the vote in our city, but pretty soon we shall know and I am confident with all the work that is done here that we will achieve victory,” the mayor said at the L.A. County Democratic Party’s election night watch party.

The pattern of Raman gaining votes would follow what occurred in the June 2 primary, when former reality TV star Spencer Pratt was leading Raman for second place on election night, only for Raman to claw her way back day after day, until she finally overtook him five days after the election.

Raman and Bass were locked in a tight race up until election day, with final polling in the race showing the second-term council member and the incumbent mayor each with support from 40% of Angelenos while 19% of the electorate was still undecided.

But a blue wave across the country that toppled Republicans in the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives also appeared to be buoying Raman’s campaign against Bass from the left.

Raman ran with the backing of the Democratic Socialists of America, the leftist organization that endorsed Mayor Zohran Mamdani in New York, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY) in Congress, among others.

Bass, meanwhile, ran on a public safety message that was meant to convince moderates and more conservative voters that she was a better alternative to Raman.

Raman also cast herself during the race as a hopeful technocrat who wanted to deliver “A City that Works,” her campaign slogan, promising to make L.A. a city that fixes broken sidewalks and potholes and repairs darkened streetlights in a more timely manner.

“This city’s government has made solving problems look impossible for so long that I heard form people across this city who started to believe it was impossible,” Raman said during her more than 20-minute-long election night speech that verged on a victory speech. “Hopelessness can be fatal for a city, but this campaign refused to accept that.”

She then pitched a more hopeful Los Angeles.

“In just one century, Los Angeles built itself into a global metropolis. The gateway to the Pacific. A center of ingenuity and invention. The cultural capital of the entire planet,” she said. “That ambitious Los Angeles, that joyful Los Angeles, that creative Los Angeles, that entrepreneurial Los Angeles, that inclusive Los Angeles, is the Los Angeles that this campaign was born to fight for.”

Raman’s position on the precipice of ascending to the mayoralty would have seemed nearly unthinkable at the start of the year, when Bass’ challengers included Pratt, former LAUSD Schools Superintendent Austin Beutner, leftist Rev. Rae Huang and entrepreneur Adam Miller — with Horvath and billionaire developer Rick Caruso also considering bids.

Beutner suspended his bid following the death of his daughter and it seemed Bass, despite low approval ratings, might glide to a second term without a serious challenger in the race.

But the night before the filing deadline on Feb. 7, rumors began swirling that Raman was considering challenging Bass.

“Who remembers in February when it was the end of the candidate filing and no one was, like, running for mayor?” asked City Controller Kenneth Mejia at Raman’s election night party. “I was like, ‘Oh my God,, I’m going to be here again for another four years stuck like this.”

“And then out of nowhere — out of nowhere — Nithya Raman came out of nowhere with the three pointer and she came out of nowhere and was like, ‘I’m running for mayor!’” Mejia yelled during a rollicking speech, as he mimed himself shooting a basketball.

After her speech, Raman asked that her supporters join her on the dance floor, where she shimmied to “Remember the Time” by Michael Jackson, pausing every few moments hug her backers and pose for selfies with them.

Joeseph Fuchs, a representative for the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, was watching the returns closely as they first came in.

“That’s just the beginning,” he said. “Get ready.”

Another point of data for Raman: “Kalshi says it’s a 95% win” for Raman, he said, referring to the prediction market site.

Bass had a warm reception at her election night party, with supporters chanting “four more years!”

Despite high energy at the party — in part due to the Democrats’ victories in Congress — some supporters understood the lead was far from safe.

“I’m disappointed that people don’t recognize all of the great things she’s done,” said Alton Reed, when asked how he felt about the extremely tight initial results.

Reed, who works for the Communications Workers of America 9003, said he had put in more than 100 hours knocking on doors urging voters to support Bass. He said the positive response he received in the field had made him feel that the incumbent mayor had a strong chance.

Reed said he was not giving up hope that Bass would prevail.

“I’ve been through many close races,” he said. “So we will see what happens.”

City Councilmember Hugo Soto-Martínez said he was “feeling good” about the election results shortly after the initial round of ballots were released Tuesday evening.

Soto-Martínez was one of several elected city leaders who gathered alongside labor union representatives and nonprofit leaders to support Bass at the watch party.

“I’ve been part of many elections and I think when you have a bigger coalition and more people behind you that is going to show in the results,” he said. “That’s why I remain hopeful.”