Iraq

Videos have been going viral of A-10s doing strafing runs on targets in Iraq, largely focused on force protection of U.S. interests in the country. The threat from Iranian-aligned militias and other groups in Iraq has spiked since Operation Epic Fury began over four weeks ago. While seeing videos shot overseas of the Warthog using its GAU-8 30mm Avenger cannon is anything but new, the duration of some of the ‘trigger pulls’ shown certainly is.

One of these caught on camera appears to be roughly nine seconds long, with another being around six seconds long:

The rise is largely symbolic as some key members are unable to raise ​production amid the US-Israel war on Iran.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has agreed to increase oil output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May, a rise that is largely symbolic as some of its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

The war has effectively blocked the Strait of Hormuz – the world’s most important oil route – since the end of ⁠February and cut exports from OPEC+ members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait and Iraq.

In a statement on Sunday, eight members of OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, agreed to increase May quotas during a virtual meeting.

“The countries will continue to closely monitor and assess market conditions, and in their continuous efforts to support market stability,” the statement read.

“The eight countries also expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability,” it added.

While the quota increase represents less than two percent of the supply disrupted by the closure of the strait, OPEC+ sources told the Reuters news agency that the pledge had signalled readiness to raise output once the waterway reopens.

Crude prices have surged to a four-year high amid the war, close to $120 a barrel, leading to higher prices for transport fuels.

On Thursday, JPMorgan said oil prices could spike above $150, an all-time high, if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted into mid-May.

May’s increase is the same as the eight members had agreed on for April at their last meeting on March 1. But amid the war, oil supply disruption on record is estimated to have removed as much as 12 to 15 million bpd or up to 15 percent of global supply.

With the strait still closed, Iran has allowed some countries in the region to use the waterway.

Iran has said Iraq was exempt from any transit restrictions through the strait, with shipping data on Sunday showing a tanker loaded with Iraqi crude passing through the waterway.

Oman’s Foreign Ministry announced on Sunday that deputy foreign minister-level talks were being held with Iran to discuss ⁠⁠options to ensure the smooth transit of vessels through the Strait ‌‌of Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump threatened to escalate attacks and target Iranian civilian infrastructure, including bridges and power plants, if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened by Monday.

Tens of thousands of Iraqi Shia leader Muqtada Sadr’s supporters rallied across Baghdad and other cities on Saturday, protesting against the US-Israel war on Iran.

Iraq has been unwillingly drawn into the regional tension, suffering attacks targeting both US interests and pro-Iranian factions within its territory.

In Baghdad’s Tahrir Square, enormous crowds, including some women, filled the streets, brandishing Iraqi flags and shouting: “No, no to Israel” and “No, no to America”.

“What America and Israel are doing in their aggression against the countries of the region is not a war of a military nature, but a senseless war,” said Dhirgham Samir, a demonstrator in his 40s.

“Today’s demonstration is an expression of rejection of aggression, arrogance, and injustice throughout the world, not just in Iraq,” he told the AFP news agency, adding that “this is a senseless war, targeting civilians”.

The ongoing war has resulted in thousands of casualties throughout the region since it began.

Sadr had issued calls for peaceful demonstrations “to condemn the Zionist-American aggression and to establish peace in the region”.

Beneath Baghdad’s Freedom Monument, which honours Iraq’s independence declaration, protesters denounced what they characterised as US and Israeli meddling in regional matters.

“They violate the rights of all the peoples of the region first, and then the world,” Muslim leader Ali al-Fartousi told AFP. “Humanity must speak out against these people and stop them. The time has come for the entire world to stand united against global Zionist-American arrogance.”

Sadr commands a loyal following of millions within Iraq’s Shia majority and has consistently demonstrated his ability to mobilise large crowds. Though he has opposed various governments over the years, his influence extends into Iraqi ministries and official institutions through his representatives.

Tehran says Iraq will face no restrictions in waterway, praising country’s ‘struggle’ against the US.

Iran has announced that Iraqi ships are free to pass the Strait of Hormuz, the latest sign of Tehran easing its stranglehold on the critical conduit for global energy supplies.

Iraq will be exempt from all restrictions in the strait, with controls only applying to “enemy countries”, Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said in a statement on Saturday.

“We hold profound respect for Iraq’s national sovereignty,” the military command said in the statement carried by the semi-official Tasnim News Agency.

“You are a nation that bears the scars of American occupation, and your struggle against the US is worthy of praise and admiration.”

Iran’s announcement came as US President Donald Trump reiterated his demands for Tehran to make a deal or relinquish control of the waterway, warning in a social media post that “all hell” would rain down within 48 hours otherwise.

Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters rejected Trump’s demand, calling his threat a “helpless, nervous, unbalanced and stupid action”.

Iran has effectively blockaded the strait, which usually carries about one-fifth of global oil and liquified natural gas supplies, since the US and Israel launched their war on the country on February 28.

While maritime traffic has ticked up in recent weeks under a de facto toll booth system imposed by Tehran, it is still down more than 90 percent from normal levels, according to ship tracking data.

According to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, there were 53 transits through the strait last week, up from 36 the previous week and the most since the war began.

The collapse of shipping in the waterway has thrown a wrench in global energy markets, pushing up fuel prices and prompting authorities in many countries to roll out emergency energy conservation measures.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, has hovered above $109 a barrel in recent days, with many analysts predicting prices to surge much higher if the waterway is not unblocked soon.

Iraq’s oil production, which provides most of Baghdad’s revenues, has been hit especially hard by the war.

Iraq’s oil ministry announced last month that production had fallen to 1.2 million barrels a day, down from 4.3 million barrels, amid declining crude shortage capacity due to the effective halt of exports through the strait.

Iraq was the world’s six-biggest oil producer in 2023, accounting for 4 percent of global supply, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

A breakdown of the teams and groups of the FIFA World Cup in Canada, Mexico and the US after the final playoffs.

Iraq’s qualification for the FIFA World Cup 2026 has completed the lineup of 48 nations for the tournament hosted by Canada, Mexico and the United States.

The Lions of Mesopotamia edged Bolivia 2-1 on Tuesday to win the second final of the FIFA Playoff tournament in Mexico. In the first final earlier, Democratic Republic of the Congo beat Jamaica 1-0.

In the other games, Turkiye, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sweden and Czechia were the final four teams to complete the European quota of World Cup qualification.

Widely considered the most famous sporting event in the world, the 2026 FIFA World Cup will be its biggest ever. Forty-eight nations will play instead of the usual 32, with 104 matches in 16 venues across the three host nations.

Argentina will look to defend the trophy lifted by iconic captain, Lionel Messi at Qatar 2022. Cape Verde, Curacao, Jordan and Uzbekistan will make their debut.

The World Cup’s first game will be a throwback to 2010 when Mexico take on South Africa on June 11 in Mexico City in a replay of the tournament opener then. Football fans will hope the opening goal this year matches the screamer scored by Lawrence Tshabalala from the South African hosts then.

Mexico in group A – which includes South Korea and Czechia – will be one of the toughest of the 12 groups.

Team USA are alongside Australia, Paraguay and Turkiye.

Canada, too, face the challenging task of making it out of a group comprising Switzerland, Qatar and Bosnia.

Here’s a breakdown of the 48 teams in the 12 groups:

Group A:

• Mexico
• South Korea
• South Africa
• Czechia

Group B:

• Canada
• Switzerland
• Qatar
• Bosnia and Herzegovina

Group C:

• Brazil
• Morocco
• Scotland
• Haiti

Group D:

• USA
• Australia
• Paraguay
• Turkiye

Group E:

• Germany
• Ecuador
• Ivory Coast
• Curacao

Group F:

• Netherlands
• Japan
• Tunisia
• Sweden

Group G:

• Belgium
• Iran
• Egypt
• New Zealand

Group H:

• Spain
• Uruguay
• Saudi Arabia
• Cape Verde

Group I:

• France
• Senegal
• Norway
• Iraq

Group J:

• Argentina
• Austria
• Algeria
• Jordan

Group K:

• Portugal
• Colombia
• Uzbekistan
• DRC

Group L:

• England
• Croatia
• Panama
• Ghana

Residents living near Erbil’s international airport in northern Iraq, say falling drone debris has damaged vehicles and properties amid the escalating war on Iran.

Ex-paramilitary group, set up to fight ISIL, but now integrated in Iraqi forces, blames US and Israel.

Air strikes targeting Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) have killed three fighters and two Iraqi police, as the US-Israeli war on Iran continued to spill over Iraq’s eastern border.

An Iraqi security source told Al Jazeera that Saturday’s double-bombing of the PMF’s headquarters near northern Iraq’s Kirkuk Airport also wounded two other fighters and six Iraqi soldiers.

A statement from the ex-paramilitary coalition, which is now integrated into the regular Iraqi army, blamed the United States and Israel, saying that those killed had been “subjected to a treacherous Zionist-American” attack.

Separately, the Reuters news agency quoted security sources as saying that two members of the Iraqi police were killed in an air strike targeting the PMF in Mosul, about 105 miles (170km) northwest of Kirkuk.

Reporting from Baghdad, Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque said that Iraq was turning into an “expanding battleground” in the crisis, which began on February 28 with US-Israeli strikes on Iran and now threatens to engulf the region in a protracted conflict.

Since the war broke out, pro-Iran armed groups within the PMF, which was formed on the orders of Najaf-based Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani in 2014 to fight ISIL (ISIS), have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and beyond and have themselves been targeted.

Haque said the PMF takes its orders from Baghdad, but some factions are loyal to Tehran.

“That makes it very difficult for Baghdad to hold all of this together. Up until the war, the government successfully brought everybody around the table [and] was able to manage the different factions,” he said.

But as the war expands into Iraq, Baghdad has found itself “on a tightrope” between the US and Iran, said Haque.

“They can’t afford to turn their back on their biggest neighbour, Iran. Nor can they afford to turn their back on the United States,” he said, noting the economic and security ties between Baghdad and both countries.

Saturday also saw two drones targeting an airbase serving as a hub for US and coalition forces near Erbil airport in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region. Haque said the US C-RAM air defence system was activated and intercepted the drones.

Iraq attacks ‘a worrying development’: Macron

In parallel, Kurdish news outlet Rudaw reported a drone attack on the house of Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Kurdish region, in the western town of Duhok.

Masrour Barzani, the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq, condemned “in the strongest terms” the assault.

“Once again, we call on the federal government to act on its responsibility, bring these outlaw criminals to justice, and curb the continued terrorist attacks carried out by these groups,” he said in a statement.

French President Emmanuel Macron said on X that he had spoken to Barzani, calling increased attacks in Iraq a “worrying development”.

In other developments, the Iraqi Ministry of Defence said on Saturday that a drone had crashed into the southern Majnoon oilfield “without detonating, causing no damage or injuries”.

Short-range kamikaze drones operated by an Iran-backed militia appear to have successfully targeted a U.S. military Black Hawk helicopter and a critical air defense radar at an American base in Iraq. This is the first known example of a successful attack of this kind on a U.S. military aircraft. It’s also not the first time we have seen evidence of these kinds of drones zipping over the same installation in recent weeks.

The incidents underscore the reality of the threat posed by small drones in the Middle East, where a wide variety of nefarious players have already employed these systems for surveillance and attacks against U.S. forces on multiple occasions, for years now. It is also a preview of what the U.S. could end up facing on its own homefront as it grapples with constant and sometimes highly perplexing drone incursions over sensitive bases and facilities. Even since the war began, there have been very alarming drone incursions over one of America’s most important bases that houses nuclear weapons and B-52 bombers that carry them. You can read all about these developments here.

One of the videos that began circulating yesterday, filmed from a first-person view (FPV) drone, shows a pair of Black Hawk helicopters sitting in a compound, protected only by a low blast wall. The video feed cuts out just before detonation, on or close to the main rotor, but the assumption is that one of these helicopters (at least) was struck.

The location has been identified as the Victory Base Complex (VBC), a cluster of U.S. military installations surrounding Baghdad International Airport close to the Iraqi capital.

As for the helicopter, this appears to be a medical evacuation (medevac) configured HH-60M, emphasized by the video editing, in which it seems the prominent identification panels marked with red crosses have been obscured.

Whether the helicopter was damaged or even destroyed by the drone is unclear at this point, but most significant is the fact that such a target was able to be engaged by a relatively simple, low-cost threat. The same goes for the second video, where the extent of the damage is much clearer.

The target in this case is a container-based AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar, a system used to alert and cue short-range air defense (SHORAD) weapons, including the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS). The radar is in operating mode, its antenna clearly rotating.

A video showing a U.S. Army AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel radar in action with the 10th Combat Aviation Brigade:

Sentinel Radar

This footage includes the perspective from another drone, which confirms that the radar was hit, after which it is seen burning.

While it’s clear that more than one drone was in the vicinity of the radar during the attack, there have also been unconfirmed reports that the militia used some kind of swarming tactics, or at least multiple kamikaze drones to perpetrate this attack, with some degree of coordination.

Reportedly, the attacks on the Black Hawk and Sentinel radar occurred yesterday. In both cases, it is apparent that there is no degradation in the video feeds as they drop very low over the ground, even behind structures. This might be the result of the drones having been launched very close to their targets, or that they used fiber-optic control links. Both those scenarios are alarming, but a fiber-optic FPV drone would explain why passive sensor systems would not have detected them as they approached the base.

The drone strikes are notable for a number of other reasons.

First, there is no sign of air defenses attempting to engage the incoming drones.

Of course, a response to the drones in the form of electronic warfare and cyber warfare, or other ‘soft-kill’ options, is a possibility. In regards to other counter-drone capabilities, there is no indication that the limited number of directed-energy weapons the U.S. has were deployed to this facility, while surface-to-air interceptors are not generally suitable for engaging such small drones. Other options would include gun-based systems, as well as drone-based systems, like the Coyote, and the laser-rocket-slinging VAMPIRE. On the other hand, we also know there is a chronic scarcity of many of these systems.

Video footage shows Block 2+ Coyote drones engaging drones in an undated demonstration:

Raytheon Missiles & Defense proves counter-UAS effectiveness against enemy drones

It should also be noted that, for all their relative simplicity and low cost, FPV drones are very hard to spot and target, especially when they are moving quickly at very low level. In many cases, they will evade detection by traditional radars, while even microwave radars, tailored for counter-drone work, can provide sporadic coverage at very low altitude.

The apparent vulnerability of the Victory Base Complex is all the more surprising since this is not the first time that the same installation has been targeted by FPV drones.

Earlier this month, videos emerged showing drones purportedly belonging to the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah group.

There have been suggestions that all of these various videos may have been recorded during the same (complex) attack, although the latest footage appears to come from a separate attack on a different date.

Thirdly, the threat posed by drones of this kind, while proliferating significantly since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has been recognized long before that.

Last year, we reported on how U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had created a new task force specifically to counter the growing threats posed by small drones at home and abroad.

“There’s no doubt that the threats we face today from hostile drones grow by the day,” Hegseth stated at the time. “Emerging technologies — we see it in battlefields, in far-flung places, and we see it on our own border in small unmanned aerial systems. [These drones] target and bring harm on all warfighters, our people, our bases, and frankly, the sovereignty of our national airspace.”

Hegseth said the Pentagon “must focus on speed over process” when it came to new counter-drone efforts. 

Clearly, the U.S. military desperately needs a more potent counter-drone plan after years of incidents in which its assets at home and overseas have faced small drone incursions, many of which were of publicly unknown origin. TWZ was the first to report about drones flying over Langley Air Force Base in December 2023, as well as incursions last year over Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Picatinny Arsenal, and many others in the U.S., and four bases in England. And these are just the tip of the iceberg: drone swarms have also harassed U.S. Navy ships off the coast of California, and other drones have been detected flying over nuclear energy plants and other sensitive areas, such as military training areas and airports.

Once in a conflict zone, the threat posed by small drones is even more glaring.

While there have been various regulatory barriers that have prevented the fielding of more robust drone defense of key installations and assets in the United States, this is not such a problem in Iraq, and especially in the course of a regional conflict.

It is notable, too, that there have been reports that some type of quadcopter-type drones may have been used for surveillance ahead of the Iranian strike on a U.S. logistics operations center in Kuwait on March 1. That attack led to the deaths of six U.S. service members, and more were wounded.

The incidents also underscore the very real risk faced by military infrastructure in the United States, a point that TWZ has repeatedly raised in the past. In particular, near-field attacks like these pose a huge threat and one that is hard to stop. Compared to a combat theater, something like this could be far more successful at home, where there are fewer defenses and more limited surveillance. As in Iraq, aircraft parked on the ground and radars are highly vulnerable, and the same threat even extends to traditional air defenses.

Operation Spiderweb, a Ukrainian drone attack that targeted multiple bomber bases deep in Russia, showed the world something that we had predicted for years.

On June 1, the Security Service of Ukraine carried out a brilliant operation— on enemy territory, targeting only military objectives, specifically the equipment used to strike Ukraine. Russia suffered significant losses.

In total, 117 drones were used in the operation – with a… pic.twitter.com/PeD1lTx9Nw

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 2, 2025

We have reached out to U.S. Central Command for more information about exactly what happened at the Victory Base Complex, and what kind of defensive measures are in place there.

As we wait for more details to emerge, to paint a fuller picture of these attacks on American assets in Iraq, it is clear that there are still questions to be asked about the resilience of the U.S. military in the face of kamikaze drones and similar threats.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

As the United States-Israeli war on Iran enters its fourth week this weekend, pressure on oil and gas markets continues to mount due to severe disruption to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz as well as attacks on and around key energy facilities in the Gulf.

In peacetime, 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is shipped from producers in the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz – the only route to the open ocean – including 20 million barrels of oil per day.

To bridge the shortage its closure has caused, countries in the Middle East are exploring alternative routes to get energy exports out.

In this explainer, we look at three major pipelines in the Middle East that producers may be pinning their hopes on, and whether they can fill the gap.

What has happened in the Strait of Hormuz?

On March 2 – two days after the US and Israel began strikes on Iran – Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the strait was “closed”. If any vessels tried to pass through, he said, the IRGC and the navy would “set those ships ablaze”. Since then, traffic through the strait has plunged by more than 95 percent.

Iranian officials have most recently stated that the strait is not completely closed – except to ships belonging to the US, Israel and those who collaborate with them – but have also laid down new ground rules. Any vessel must secure Tehran’s approval to transit through the narrow waterway.

As a result, over the past fortnight, countries have been scrambling to do deals with Iran to secure safe passage and a few, mostly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese-flagged tankers have been allowed to pass.

On Thursday, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim thanked Tehran for granting Malaysian vessels “early clearance” through the strait.

Meanwhile, about 2,000 ships flying the flags of other nations are stuck on either side of the strait.

Which oil pipelines could serve as alternate routes?

The only alternative to shipping oil is piping it across land or under the sea. Three oil pipelines could work as ways around the Strait of Hormuz, including:

Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline

The East-West pipeline is also known as the Petroline and is operated by Saudi oil giant Aramco. Aramco is one of the world’s largest companies, with a market capitalisation exceeding $1.7 trillion and annual revenues of $480bn. The oil giant controls 12 percent of global oil production, with a capacity of more than 12 million bpd.

It is a 1,200km (745-mile) pipeline which runs from the Abqaiq oil processing centre close to the Gulf in Saudi Arabia to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea, on the other side of the country.

However, the pipeline does not have the capacity to fully make up for the Hormuz closure.

In 2024, about 20 million barrels per day (bpd) passed through the Strait of Hormuz, according to data from the United Nations. Crude oil and condensate made up 14 million bpd of this, while petroleum was the remaining 6 million bpd.

The East-West pipeline has the capacity of transporting up to 7 million bpd. On March 10, Aramco said about 5 million bpd could be made available for exports, while the rest could supply local refineries.

Since the US-Israeli war on Iran began at the end of February, Saudi Arabia has ramped up its oil flow through this pipeline. In January and February, an average of 770,000 bpd flowed through the pipeline, according to data from Kpler, a data and analytics company. By Tuesday this week, this had increased to an average of 2.9 million bpd.

However, using the Saudi pipeline still carries a risk.

The Houthis, an Iran-backed Yemeni armed group whose attacks on ships in the Red Sea caused global shipping chaos during Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza from 2023 to 2025, could target the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, and the Indian Ocean beyond.

An unnamed Houthi leader told the Reuters news agency that the Houthis remain ready to attack the Red Sea again in solidarity with Tehran, the agency reported on Thursday.

“We stand fully militarily ready with all options. As for other details having to do with determining zero hour they are left to leadership and we are monitoring and following up with the developments and will know when is the suitable time to move,” the Houthi leader said.

The Bab al-Mandeb is the southern outlet of the Red Sea, situated between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast.

It is one of the world’s most important routes for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel from the Gulf bound for the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal or the SUMED pipeline on Egypt’s Red Sea coast, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil.

The Bab al-Mandeb is 29km (18 miles) wide at its narrowest point, limiting traffic to two channels for inbound and outbound shipments.

Iran could open a new front in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if attacks are carried out on Iranian territory or its islands, Iran’s semiofficial Tasnim cited an unnamed Iranian military source as saying on Wednesday.

UAE’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline

The Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline is also called the ADCOP or the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline.

The 380km pipeline runs from Habshan, an oil and gasfield in the southwestern area of Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman.

The pipeline, which became operational in 2012, has a capacity of about 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd). It is unclear how much is now being transported through the pipeline.

However, oil exports from Fujairah do appear to have risen in the past month despite the closure of the strait, averaging 1.62 million bpd in March compared with 1.17 million bpd in February, according to Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball, who spoke to Reuters.

Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline

The Iraq-Turkiye Crude Oil Pipeline, also called the Kirkuk-Ceyhan Pipeline, links Iraq to the Mediterranean coast of Turkiye.

The pipeline, which has the capacity of 1.6 million bpd, currently carries about 200,000bpd.

Iraq is among the top five global producers of oil and is the second largest within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), exceeding 4 million bpd.

Can these pipelines replace the Strait of Hormuz?

No. While these pipelines can take on some of the capacity of Hormuz, their combined capacity is only about 9 million bpd, compared with about 20 million bpd for the strait.

Additionally, these pipelines are land-based and within the range of Iranian missiles and drones, which makes them just as vulnerable to attacks and damage in the ongoing conflict as ships travelling through the strait. Throughout the war, energy infrastructure all over the Gulf has suffered strikes.

Are there other options?

Theoretically, oil can be transported on trucks, but this is costly, slow and inefficient.

A standard truck can carry anywhere between 100 to 700 barrels per day, depending on the number of trips. Hundreds of thousands of barrels would be needed to meet needs, requiring thousands of trucks, which could also be targeted in strikes.

Police source tells Al Jazeera the attack hits positions of the Iran-aligned PMF, which the US has increasingly targeted.

An aerial attack on a military base in western Iraq’s Anbar province has killed seven fighters and wounded 13, according to Iraq’s Ministry of Defence.

The strikes on Wednesday targeted the military healthcare clinic at the base in Habbaniyah, according to the ministry. It called the attack “a heinous crime” that violated “all international laws and norms”.

An Iraqi police source told Al Jazeera the attack targeted positions of the Iraqi military’s Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), a paramilitary force that includes some Iran-aligned brigades and reportedly shares the base with members of Iraq’s regular army.

“What we understand from the military here is that air strikes were carried out and then further strikes carried out on that same position,” said Al Jazeera’s Assed Baig, reporting from Baghdad. He said it appeared to be the first time the PMF was hit alongside the broader Iraqi military.

Iraq has denounced the attack as the country has been dragged into the United States-Israeli war on Iran. On Tuesday, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office said Baghdad would summon the Iranian and US ambassadors over the recent strikes.

‘Right to respond’

A security official quoted by the AFP news agency said the strike occurred at the same base that suffered a deadly attack the day before.

Tuesday’s strike, which the PMF blamed on the US, was the deadliest in Iraq since the start of the war on Iran on February 28, It killed 15 fighters, including a commander.

The attack prompted Iraq’s government to grant the PMF a “right to respond” to any attack against it, a position Baghdad reaffirmed on Wednesday.

“We reserve our full right to take all necessary measures to respond to this aggression within the established legal frameworks,” the Defence Ministry said.

Since the war began, pro-Iran armed groups have claimed responsibility for attacks on US interests in Iraq and across the region while strikes have also targeted these groups, including at government-linked positions.

The US Department of Defense has acknowledged that combat helicopters have carried out strikes against pro-Iran armed groups in Iraq during the current conflict.

Baig said the latest strikes demonstrate “an escalation in terms of the PMF being targeted”.

“Increasingly, Iraq is becoming a battlefield between Iraqi armed factions and the United States,” he said.

Video shows the aftermath of an airstrike in Iraq’s Anbar province on a headquarters of the pro-Iran Popular Mobilisation Forces, where at least ten people were killed during a commanders’ meeting.

Millions of people have rung in the ancient Persian New Year, Nowruz, as war grips the Middle East. The 3,000-year-old Zoroastrian-rooted celebration marks the beginning of spring in the northern hemisphere and is celebrated by 300 million people in Iran and Central Asia.

Al Jazeera’s Nicolas Haque recorded his journey on the long road from Amman, Jordan to Baghdad, Iraq as he deploys to cover the US-Israeli war on Iran. Along the 900km drive he found tight security and people largely unfazed by the conflict.

Trump calls NATO cowardly over lack of support for Iran war, says Strait of Hormuz should be protected ‘by other nations who use it’.

Air strikes come hours after pro-Iran armed group Kataib Hezbollah announces conditional suspension of US embassy attacks.

Air strikes have killed two fighters from the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in northern Iraq, the paramilitary group says from one of the fronts in the sprawling war engulfing the Middle East.

The two attacks targeted PMF positions early on Thursday in the Nineveh region, where Mosul city is located, and a military airport in Salah al-Din province, according to statements from the PMF, a predominantly Shia group that is part of Iraq’s security apparatus and includes several groups aligned with Iran.

The PMF blamed the attack on Israel and the United States. Iraq has been drawn into the US-Israeli war on Iran, now in its third week.

The PMF was formed in 2014 as a volunteer force supporting Iraqi security forces in the fight against ISIL (ISIS).

Strikes have targeted Iran-backed groups, which in turn have claimed near-daily attacks on US interests in Iraq and across the region.

Elsewhere, a fire broke out at a naval base in southern Iraq when it was hit by a drone overnight. An Iraqi security source told Al Jazeera that a drone crashed into a water treatment station at the Umm Qasr naval base near the border with Kuwait.

Footage from the scene circulating on social media and verified by Al Jazeera showed flames and smoke rising from the site.

US embassy attacks to be suspended

Hours before the attacks on PMF fighters, the pro-Iranian armed group Kataib Hezbollah said its secretary-general had “issued orders to suspend operations targeting the US embassy in Baghdad for a period of five days”.

Designated by Washington as a “terrorist organisation”, Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah listed several conditions of the suspension, including Israel ceasing its bombardment of the southern suburbs of Beirut.

Kataib Hezbollah also demanded “a commitment to refrain from bombing residential areas in Baghdad and other provinces”.

Whenever “the enemy violates” the truce, “the response will be immediate”, the group said, warning of more strikes after the five-day period.

The US embassy has been targeted by drone and rocket attacks several times in recent days. Air defences have intercepted most of the projectiles.

The embassy is in the Green Zone, a heavily fortified district in central Baghdad that houses Iraqi government institutions and embassies.

A US diplomatic and logistics centre at Baghdad International Airport that houses military personnel has also been regularly targeted.

Islamabad, Pakistan — The war launched by the United States and Israel on Iran has already killed more than 1,400 people, set off retaliatory attacks by Tehran targeting Gulf nations and Israel, and pushed global oil prices above $100 a barrel.

Now, eighteen days into the conflict, aid agencies and countries neighbouring Iran are increasingly concerned about a potential refugee crisis.

The United Nations refugee agency, UNHCR, estimates that 3.2 million people have already been displaced in Iran since US-Israeli strikes began on February 28. For now, the number of people physically crossing Iran’s borders remains comparatively modest. But this is what could happen next, and has put Iran’s neighbours on high alert.

Iran borders seven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Pakistan, Turkiye and Turkmenistan. Iraq shares the longest frontier, stretching for almost 1,600km (994 miles).

Each of these states faces its own political pressures, economic limitations and security concerns.

But pressure on the ground in Iran is mounting. The country’s Red Crescent Society reports that more than 10,000 civilian sites have been damaged since the war began, including 65 schools and 32 medical facilities, while more than 1,400 people have been killed in the US-Israel attacks. Strikes have hit residential areas in Tehran, Shiraz and Isfahan.

Meanwhile, commercial flights out of Iran have been suspended as airspace is closed.

Eldaniz Gusseinov, head of research at the geopolitical advisory firm Nightingale International, noted that because strikes have so far been concentrated largely on Tehran and western and southwestern Iran, other parts of the country — especially provinces bordering Turkmenistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan are absorbing much of the internal displacement.

“If the strike pattern remains the same, internally displaced people inside Iran will increasingly concentrate in provinces located near those states, creating the preconditions for cross-border movement,” the Almaty-based analyst told Al Jazeera.

And things could get worse. If Tehran, a city of about 10 million people, were to lose its electricity grid or water supply in a US-Israel attack, for instance, residents could be forced to leave en masse.

“Infrastructure destruction does not produce the gradual, manageable flows that the Syrian war initially generated. It produces sudden, massive displacement, driven by the collapse of basic urban services,” Gusseinov said.

Turkiye fears repeat of Syrian migration crisis

Among Iran’s neighbours, only Turkiye, Iraq and Pakistan have extensive experience of hosting large refugee populations.

Imtiaz Baloch, an independent researcher focusing on conflicts in Pakistan and Central Asia, said that if the crisis in Iran deepens, many Iranians could seek refuge in neighbouring states, particularly Iraq and Turkiye.

Analysts say no country faces greater political exposure than Turkiye.

“Turkiye is currently hosting many refugees from Syria and other countries. A new influx of Iranian migrants would likely intensify the humanitarian burden and create new challenges for both host countries and international relief agencies in the coming days,” Baloch said.

Turkiye shares a 530km (329-mile) border with Iran and allows visa-free entry for Iranian citizens. It already hosts the world’s largest refugee population, including roughly 3.6 million Syrians, and anti-immigrant sentiment has hardened within domestic politics over the past decade.

Turkiye’s interior minister, Mustafa Çiftçi, said earlier in March that the government had prepared three contingency plans for the war in Iran.

The first involves intercepting migration flows within Iranian territory before they reach the border. The second proposes establishing buffer zones along the frontier. The third would allow refugees to enter Turkiye under controlled conditions as a last resort.

Turkish authorities say they have already strengthened the border with Iran, adding 380km (236 miles) of concrete wall, 203 optical towers and 43 observation posts – undertaken, according to a Turkish Ministry of National Defence statement issued in January, as the US was building up its armada in the Gulf late last year.

“Although there is currently no mass migration detection at our borders, additional measures have been taken on the border line, and these measures will be implemented if needed,” the Defence Ministry stated on January 15.

So far, this has not been necessary. According to Turkish government data on the movement of people from Iran, 5,010 entered Turkiye from between March 1 and 3, while 5,495 exited.

But Turkiye has felt the effects of the war’s spillover in other ways. On March 9, NATO confirmed it had intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile over Turkish airspace. The debris landed near Gaziantep, in the western-most part of the country, about 50km (31 miles) from the Syrian border. Iran denied that it was behind the attack on Turkiye.

Crisis on an unprecedented scale?

What makes the current situation in Iran particularly urgent is the scale of its population, say analysts.

Syria had approximately 21 million people at the start of its civil war. Iran has roughly 90 million. The Syrian conflict caused more than 13 million people to be displaced, including more than 6 million who fled the country.

A proportionate displacement from Iran would represent a humanitarian crisis with few modern parallels. To put it into perspective, if a country of 90 million experienced the exact same scale of crisis as Syria, nearly 56 million people would be forced to flee their homes, and nearly 26 million of them would become international refugees.

Gusseinov said such a scale of displacement and the capacity of international aid agencies is “fundamentally mismatched”.

Furthermore, Iran itself hosts one of the world’s largest refugee populations: about 3.7 million displaced people, most of them from Afghanistan.

“Any mass displacement from Iran, therefore, creates a dual crisis: Iranian civilians fleeing outward, and Afghan and Iraqi refugees who were already in Iran being displaced a second time, or pushed back to countries that cannot absorb them,” he said.

Iraq and the South Caucasus face difficult choices

Although most population movement is still taking place within Iran rather than across its borders, Iran’s neighbours do have cause for concern, analysts say.

“Iran’s neighbouring countries are already dealing with their own crises, which limits their ability to absorb a potential refugee influx. Countries such as Syria, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are facing varying degrees of economic, political, or security challenges. These internal pressures make it difficult for them to accommodate a large influx of refugees,” Gusseinov told Al Jazeera.

Iraq, which shares Iran’s longest border, faces a particularly complex situation.

The country is not only a potential destination for Iranian refugees, but has also been caught in military exchanges between Washington and Tehran. US forces have targeted armed groups operating from Iraqi territory, while Iran and pro-Iran armed groups have struck – or attempted to strike – US military and diplomatic positions inside the country.

The UN’s International Organization for Migration says disruptions on the Iranian side of the border have led to the closure of several crossing points, although Iraqi crossings remain technically open. Meanwhile, the UNHCR says it is monitoring developments closely, and that the Iraqi government would lead any emergency refugee response.

The semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, which, unlike the rest of the country, still allows visa-free entry for Iranian passport holders, adds another layer of complexity.

The region hosts several Kurdish armed groups, some of which have reportedly been in discussions with Washington about receiving military support in return for joining the war against Iran. The development has prompted Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to strike Kurdish positions inside Iraqi territory.

Baghdad has publicly stated that it will not allow its territory to be used to infiltrate Iran, but experts on the region say its ability to enforce the position is limited.

Further north, the South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have each expressed concern while attempting to carefully balance relations with both Washington and Tehran.

Azerbaijan has closed its land borders to routine traffic, requiring government approval for any crossing, while Armenia’s border with Iran, which is just 44km (27 miles) long, remains open.

“Armenia is a small economy already absorbing Russian and Ukrainian migrants,” Gusseinov said.

Pakistan and Afghanistan confront overlapping crises

To Iran’s east lie Pakistan and Afghanistan, each grappling with existing refugee pressures.

According to the UNHCR, since October 2023, about 5.4 million Afghans have returned to Afghanistan from Iran and Pakistan, many not by choice.

Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, a huge wave of Afghans sought refuge across the country’s borders, fearful of economic collapse and security threats.

The UN and international migration agencies estimate that between 1 and 1.5 million Afghans fled to Iran in the immediate aftermath of the US withdrawal, pushing the total Afghan population in Iran to upwards of 5 or 6 million.

Concurrently, hundreds of thousands of newly displaced Afghans crossed into Pakistan, joining a long-established refugee community there and swelling the total number of Afghans in the country to more than 3 million.

In response to this influx and citing domestic economic and security pressures, both Pakistan and Iran initiated aggressive mass deportation campaigns, forcing millions back into Afghanistan. Between late 2023 and the end of 2025, between 2.8 million and 3.5 million Afghans are thought to have been sent back.

Pakistan’s stringent repatriation plans pushed out more than 1.3 million people, while Iran drastically accelerated its expulsions, deporting nearly 2 million individuals in 2025 alone.

According to the UNHCR, in 2026 so far, more than 232,500 Afghans have returned to their country, including 146,206 from Pakistan and 86,253 from Iran.

The primary concern now is that the war in Iran could accelerate these returns, pushing people into communities already struggling to cope and potentially triggering further onward migration. The UNHCR has also warned that largescale and hurried returns of refugees could trigger further instability in the region.

Further complicating the situation, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been engaged in fighting, as Islamabad claims that Afghanistan is providing a safe haven to armed groups launching attacks at Pakistan. Kabul has consistently denied the presence of any such groups on its soil.

Another bout of hostilities in October 2025 led Pakistan to close its borders with Afghanistan. Since then, Afghanistan’s trade and economic ties with Iran have deepened.

“Destabilisation of the Iranian economy, therefore, hits Afghanistan through two channels simultaneously: reduced trade flows and refugee return surges,” Gusseinov said.

Meanwhile, Pakistan faces its own geographical and security challenges.

The country’s border with Iran runs through Balochistan, its largest but most volatile province, where separatist sentiment has simmered for decades. The province has seen an increasing number of attacks by armed groups seeking independence from Pakistan. In February this year, Pakistan’s military concluded a weeklong security operation in the province, and claimed it had killed 216 fighters in targeted offensives.

While Balochistan’s provincial officials say they have sufficient resources to accommodate refugees if large numbers begin arriving across the southern border, researcher Baloch said the reality was more complicated. Any refugee crisis, he said, could make the situation in Balochistan difficult for Islamabad to manage.

“Balochistan’s porous border is next to Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province, a region that has historically been home to various separatist groups. Any significant influx of refugees across this border could impose additional security and economic costs on Pakistan,” Baloch said.

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No group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, which took place amid the escalating Israel-US war on Iran.

A prominent hotel in central Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone was struck by a drone, amid reports that Iraqi air defences intercepted an attack over the United States Embassy.

The strike on Monday evening hit the top floor of Al-Rasheed Hotel, causing damage but no casualties, according to two Iraqi security officials cited by The Associated Press (AP) news agency.

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Security sources told the Reuters news agency that two Katyusha rockets had been intercepted that evening near the US Embassy in the Green Zone, which houses diplomatic missions as well as international institutions and government offices.

Earlier Monday, the Iran-backed Kataib Hezbollah announced that Abu Ali Al-Askari, a prominent security official with the paramilitary group, had been killed, without giving details on the circumstances.

Kataib Hezbollah is one of the largest groups in the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) operating in Iran, which was founded in 2014 to stop lightning advances by ISIL (ISIS).

On the same day, AP reported that six PMF fighters were killed in a strike on a checkpoint in western Iraq’s Anbar province, and two others were killed in a separate strike on the headquarters of a PMF brigade in the same area.

Two Iraqi security officials told AP that the Majnoon oilfield in Iraq’s southern Basra province was targeted by two drones. No casualties were reported, and it was not immediately clear if there was damage to the facilities.

Iraq’s oil industry has been severely impacted by the US and Israel’s war on Iran and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trading corridor.

Iraqi Minister of Oil Hayan Abdul-Ghani said in a video statement on Monday that a pipeline from the northern city of Kirkuk to Turkiye would be operational within a week, allowing the country to resume its oil exports, which have been interrupted by the ongoing war.

Also on Monday, air defences intercepted and shot down a drone near Erbil airport in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq, according to security sources.

The Pentagon said the airmen on board the KC-135 plane were: John Klinner, 33, from Alabama; Ariana Savino, 31, from Washington; Ashley Pruitt, 34, from Kentucky; Seth Koval, 38, from Indiana; Curtis Angst, 30, from Ohio; and Tyler Simmons, 28, also from Ohio.

A strike on the heavily fortified United States embassy compound in Baghdad caused a fire and damage to the complex. It is the second attack on the embassy since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28.

The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has been refreshing its travel advice for nations across the globe amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, continuing to wreak havoc on international movement.

Beyond severely disrupting travel plans, the ongoing crisis is set to have far-reaching consequences for inflation, interest rates and commodity markets. British citizens have already been airlifted from Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and neighbouring regions, with Whitehall organising charter flights to repatriate nationals safely.

Those most at risk will receive priority booking on these evacuation flights, with the Foreign Office pledging to reach out to anyone who has registered their whereabouts in the affected zone, reports the Liverpool Echo.

In its guidance covering numerous Middle Eastern nations, the Foreign Office said: “Regional escalation poses significant security risks and has led to travel disruption. Stay away from areas around security or military facilities. Follow the instructions of the local authorities and monitor local and international media for the latest information.”

The advice went on: “If local authorities advise you to take shelter, stay indoors or move to the nearest safe building immediately. The greatest risk is from falling debris caused by intercepts, and you are safest inside a secure structure.

“Choose an interior stairwell or a room with as few external walls or windows as possible for additional protection.”

Political strife, natural calamities and safety issues are among the factors leading the UK Foreign Office to advise Brits against travelling to certain locations.

Afghanistan

Travel to Afghanistan is strongly discouraged. The security climate is unpredictable, with previous tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan resulting in violent skirmishes in border areas.

Travelling across Afghanistan poses extreme risks, and several border crossings are currently closed.

The likelihood of British nationals being detained in Afghanistan is significantly high. If you’re a Brit and find yourself detained in Afghanistan, you could be looking at a lengthy prison sentence spanning months or even years.

The FCDO’s capacity to assist you is severely restricted, and in-person support in Afghanistan is not feasible.

Belarus

The FCDO strongly advises against all travel to Belarus. If you’ve ever participated in activities now deemed illegal by the Belarusian regime, you run a substantial risk of arrest.

There’s also a minor risk that direct conflict related to the war in Ukraine could spill over into Belarus.

In the unlikely event of conflict breaking out, the FCDO’s ability to aid British nationals will be drastically limited. Ignoring advice from the FCDO could invalidate your travel insurance.

Burkina Faso

The FCDO advises against all travel to Burkina Faso due to the threat of terrorist attacks and kidnappings, coupled with the country’s unstable political situation.

There is no British Embassy in Burkina Faso and all consular support is provided from the British Embassy in Accra, Ghana. They cannot provide in-person assistance.

If there is serious violence, unrest or a deterioration in the security situation, it could be difficult to leave safely.

Haiti

The FCDO advises against all travel to Haiti owing to the unstable security situation. There are currently no British consular officials in Haiti and its ability to provide consular assistance is severely limited and cannot be delivered in person in Haiti.

If you choose to travel to or remain in Haiti against FCDO advice, attempt to avoid all crowds and public events, and take appropriate security precautions.

Iran

The FCDO advises against all travel to Iran. If you are a British national already in Iran, either resident or visitor, the Foreign Office said: “carefully consider your presence there and the risks you take by staying”.

British and British-Iranian dual nationals face significant risk of arrest, questioning or detention. Possessing a British passport or links to the UK can be reason enough for the Iranian authorities to detain you.

Iraq

The FCDO advises against all travel to Federal Iraq and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. This is due to recent escalation in regional conflict.

There is significant risk of further escalation, and events are fast-moving and unpredictable. The Foreign Office said: “Regional escalation poses significant security risks and has led to travel disruption. The border crossing from Iraq into Kuwait is closed.

“British nationals wishing to cross into Kuwait must contact the British Embassy in Kuwait 24 hours in advance. The British Embassy will share names and passport details with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs who will determine entry.”

Israel

The FCDO advises against all travel to Israel and Palestine: “Regional escalation poses significant security risks and has led to travel disruption. Stay away from areas around security or military facilities.”

Britons should inform the UK government of their presence in Israel, and register if they’re in the region for ongoing updates. You should adhere to instructions from local authorities and keep abreast of local and international media for the most current information.

Mali

The FCDO advises against all travel to Mali in its entirety owing to volatile security conditions. If you’re currently in Mali, you should depart “immediately” via commercial flight if you deem it safe to do so.

“The international airport in Bamako is open, and commercial flights are available. Do not try to leave Mali by overland routes to neighbouring countries as this is too dangerous. This is due to terrorist attacks along national highways.”

There remains a significant threat of abduction and criminal behaviour throughout Mali, including within the capital city of Bamako.

The Foreign Office warned: “If you choose to remain in Mali, you do so at your own risk. You should have a personal emergency plan that does not rely on the UK government.”

Niger

The FCDO advises against all travel to Niger. Officials said: “This is due to the rise of reported terrorist and criminal kidnappings of foreign nationals which have taken place this year in Niger. There is an ongoing risk of terrorist attacks throughout Niger including in the capital, Niamey.”

Support for British nationals is extremely limited in Niger. Assistance is delivered remotely from the British Deputy High Commission in Lagos.

Face-to-face help is unavailable. Should serious violence, civil unrest or a worsening security situation occur, departing safely could prove challenging.

Palestine

The FCDO advises against all travel to Israel and Palestine. UK citizens currently in the region should inform the Government of their whereabouts in Palestine and register their presence to receive ongoing updates.

Should you determine it’s safe to proceed and intend to use commercial departure options, verify the latest information from your airline or tour operator, alongside guidance from local authorities and the status of border crossings prior to travelling.

The Foreign Office cautioned: “The situation could escalate quickly and poses significant risks. Regional tensions may cause international borders (air and land) to close.”

Russia

The FCDO warns against all travel to Russia owing to the dangers and threats stemming from its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, including security incidents such as drone strikes and Russian air defence operations, a shortage of flights back to the UK, and restricted capacity for the UK government to offer assistance.

The Foreign Office said: “There is an increased risk of British nationals being detained in Russia, including if the Russian authorities suspect you of engaging in or supporting activities against Russian law, even if activities took place outside Russia.”

South Sudan

The FCDO warns against all travel to South Sudan due to the threat of armed violence and criminal activity.

“The political and security situation remains unpredictable. Political tensions are high and the security situation across the country could deteriorate rapidly and unpredictably.

“If the unstable security situation deteriorates, routes into and out of South Sudan may be blocked. Juba airport may close or be inaccessible. Flights may be cancelled at short notice.”

Syria

The FCDO warns against all travel to Syria owing to volatile security conditions and the risk of terrorist attacks. Consular support is unavailable from the British government within Syria.

The FCDO may learn of assistance offered by other organisations which can be shared with British nationals. Should you require help, contact the FCDO in London on +44 (0)20 7008 5000.

Yemen

The FCDO warns against all travel to Yemen in its entirety owing to unpredictable security conditions. The guidance states: “If you’re in Yemen, you should leave immediately.”

Assistance for British nationals is extremely restricted in Yemen. The British Embassy in Sana’a has suspended operations, with all diplomatic and consular personnel evacuated.

The UK government is unable to assist British citizens departing Yemen. No evacuation arrangements are currently in place.

Should you decide to stay in Yemen, you ought to keep movement around the country and within urban areas to a minimum, stay informed about changes in the local security landscape and observe other safety measures.