Iran

United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has said that today will be “the most intense day of strikes,” as the U.S. and Israeli militaries increase their attacks on Iran. Meanwhile, Hegseth said that, in the last 24 hours, Iran has launched its lowest number of weapons since the conflict began, suggesting that these strikes are starting to more significantly erode Tehran’s ability to hit back at Israel, U.S. interests in the Middle East, and the wider region.

Hegseth said that the aftermath of the conflict is “going to be in America’s interests” and says it “will not live under a nuclear blackmail” from Iran.

Among the U.S. assets involved in the recent strikes is the Arleigh Burke class destroyer USS Frank E. Petersen Jr., seen firing a Tomahawk Land Attack Missile at Iran yesterday.

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is reportedly on the move. Based on open-source flight tracking data, the supercarrier is apparently now operating in the central Red Sea, off the coast of Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. This suggests that the carrier strike group is heading closer to the theater of combat. Whether it will pass the Bab El Mandeb Strait, which the Iranian proxies in Yemen can put under threat, is yet to be seen.

According to The Washington Post, citing U.S. officials, the U.S. military expended munitions to the value of $5.6 billion in only the first two days of its attack on Iran. Statistics like these have raised questions about how fast some of the Pentagon’s most valuable stockpiles of weapons — including Tomahawk cruise missiles — have been eroded, and the capacity of the defense industry to make good the deficit.

Further U.S. long-range strike firepower has arrived at RAF Fairford in England, where another three B-1B bombers touched down today. These join three more B-1s that arrived on Friday and Saturday, as well as three B-52Hs that landed at the airbase yesterday, as you can read about here. As we have discussed repeatedly in recent weeks, having the bombers forward deployed to England and/or Diego Garcia will drastically increase sortie rates and decrease wear-and-tear on the bomber fleet compared to flying from U.S. airbases and back. This will become even more relevant if the bomber force shifts from making standoff strikes to direct attacks on Iranian targets, even if just over limited parts of the country where air supremacy is more guaranteed.

March 10 (UPI) — The average price of a gallon of unleaded gas in the United States hit $3.54 on Tuesday as the Trump administration continues military action against Iran.

AAA reports the current average price for fuel is higher across all grades than it was a year ago. Diesel fuel is up more than 10 cents over Monday’s average, reaching $4.78 per gallon.

Prices are highest on the West Coast, as they typically are, with the highest average cost of a gallon of unleaded gas at $5.29 in California.

Tuesday’s average price marks the highest gas prices have been since July 2024.

Gas prices spiked following bombings in Iran by Israel and the United States on Feb. 28. On Feb. 26, the average price per gallon was $2.98 after months of mild fluctuation.

The price of a barrel of crude oil jumped from $91 to $116 on Sunday.

President Donald Trump urged that the increase in oil prices is temporary and a “small price to pay,” in a post on social media.

Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route in the oil trade, due to the ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. About 20% of the world’s oil is shipped through the strait.

Trump told CBS News that he “has thought about taking [the Strait of Hormuz] over.”

Rising gas prices have caused concern for Republicans on Capitol Hill. Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said he hopes to see “things can resume some sense of normalcy in that region in terms of shipping lanes.”

Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, has been more skeptical about the president’s strategy with Iran and its impact on oil prices.

“For heaven’s sakes, are you telling me you didn’t game this one out?” Murkowski told Punchbowl News. “I’m starting to think they didn’t game this one out.”

The World Health Organization has warned that “black rain” caused by Israeli strikes on Iran’s oil facilities could pose health risks, especially for children. Iranian authorities have advised residents stay indoors as fires and thick smoke worsen air quality.

International Energy Agency chief says talks aim to assess conditions as US-Israel war on Iran fuels global uncertainty.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) is set to hold an emergency meeting to assess the situation in the Middle East as the US-Israeli war on Iran continues to roil global energy markets.

Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said representatives of IEA member states would meet on Tuesday to assess “the current security of supply and market conditions” amid the conflict.

“I have convened an extraordinary meeting of IEA member governments, which will take place later today to assess the current security of supply and market conditions to inform a subsequent decision on whether to make emergency stocks of IEA countries available to the market,” Birol said.

This week, oil prices hit their highest levels since mid‑2022 amid concerns of prolonged shipping disruptions linked to the war and reduced output from some key producers in countries that have been targeted by retaliatory Iranian strikes.

While the market reversed late in the day on Monday, with benchmarks falling below $90 a barrel, uncertainty persists around how long the United States-Israel war will drag on.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical Gulf waterway through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil supplies passes, has effectively been shut down as a result of the war.

“If this drags on, it is not just going to be energy prices” that are affected, Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid explained. “It is going to have an impact on global economies.”

Bin Javaid noted that the extraordinary IEA meeting comes after Group of Seven (G7) countries met to discuss possible actions to help stabilise global energy markets.

European governments have been on edge about the prospect of a repeat of the energy crisis they faced in 2022, when prices surged to record peaks after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

“The IEA will ⁠be presenting an ⁠in-depth analysis of the pros and ⁠cons of releasing stocks ⁠now,” the European Union’s Energy Commissioner ‌Dan Jorgensen said before the agency’s meeting.

Earlier on Tuesday, G7 energy ministers stopped short of deciding on the release of strategic oil reserves in a call, instead asking the IEA to assess the situation before acting.

“Everyone is willing to take measures to stabilise the market, including the United States,” French Finance Minister Roland Lescure told reporters after the latest talks.

“We have asked the IEA to elaborate scenarios for a potential oil stock release; we need to be ready to act at any moment,” he added.

EU leaders also will discuss competitiveness, including energy prices, on a call later in the day with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, and others.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth recited a prayer for US troops attacking Iran, asking for strength and protection, during a Pentagon briefing. American and Israeli officials have been criticised for pushing rhetoric suggesting that the campaign against Iran is a religious war.

WASHINGTON — As Congress responds to President Trump’s attack on Iran, lawmakers who served on the front lines of Iraq and Afghanistan are making their voices heard in a war debate that has taken on intensely personal meaning.

Many admit mixed feelings, taking satisfaction in seeing vengeance taken on the leadership of an Iranian regime that has targeted U.S. service members for decades, yet fearful that another generation of soldiers could soon face the same combat experiences that they did.

“Do I take gratification? You know there’s the Marine side of me: Yeah, of course,” said Arizona Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego, whose company suffered some of the heaviest losses on the U.S. side during the Iraq War. “I know they killed a lot of American soldiers, American Marines. But do I also understand that I have a responsibility not to let my lust for revenge drive my country into another war?”

Experiences in the post 9/11 wars are also coloring the decisions of the Trump administration, given that top officials, including Vice President JD Vance and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, were once deployed to Iraq.

Gallego, like others on Capitol Hill, leaned heavily on his firsthand experience of fighting in the wars after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks as he assessed the Iran conflict. Lawmakers wore bracelets etched with the names of friends killed in battle, told stories of coming under attack from Iran-backed militant groups and reflected on their own life-changing injuries suffered during combat.

Veteran lawmakers are wary of war

While the initial votes on Iran saw Congress divide mostly along party lines, with Republicans backing Trump’s actions and Democrats warning of an extended conflict, veterans in both parties share deep reservations about entering the conflict.

“As somebody who knows a lot of friends that didn’t come home and a lot of Gold Star families, that’s why the week before the attack, I was actually one of the ones that was talking about caution and why we needed to avoid at all costs getting into another long, drawn-out Middle Eastern war,” said Republican Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona, a former Navy SEAL who left college to enlist the week after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Crane said his concerns were partially assuaged by briefings from the Trump administration that indicated to him the president is not planning a drawn-out war. He voted against a war powers resolution that would have halted attacks on Iran unless Trump got congressional approval.

But Crane said wars are never straightforward. “I’ve been on military operations that did not go to plan many times, and so I understand the nature,” he said, adding that he was calling for the Trump administration to approach the conflict with “humility and caution.”

Gallego and other Democrats worried that it was too late for that approach. They paid tribute to the six U.S. military members who were killed in a drone strike in Kuwait and worried that there could soon be more American casualties. A seventh service member died on Sunday from wounds suffered during a March 1 attack in Saudi Arabia.

“War is dirty, and mistakes happen,” Gallego said. The longer the conflict drags on, he added, the greater the chance there will be for U.S. military members to be killed. He experienced that firsthand in Iraq when friends would be killed by seemingly random shots from enemy combatants.

Still, many Republicans argued that it was necessary to attack Iran to stop a regime that for decades has helped train and arm militant groups throughout the Middle East. Republican Rep. Brian Mast, who chairs the House Foreign Affairs Committee, led the debate on the House floor against the war powers resolution.

Mast, who served as an Army bomb disposal expert, now uses prosthetic legs after receiving catastrophic injuries from an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan. “Me especially, many of my other colleagues, no one wants to see our military go into combat or war,” he said.

Then he added, “But Iran’s terror, which has caused the deaths of thousands of Americans, it has to stop.”

Trying to push soldiers to forefront of war debate

Important questions loom for Congress as the conflict with Iran unfolds and spreads to other parts of the Middle East. The price of the operation is already likely running into the billions of dollars, likely forcing the Trump administration to soon seek billions in funding from Congress. The outbreak of war has also scrambled global alliances and the future of U.S. foreign policy.

Shadowing it all is the potential of another drawn-out conflict. Lawmakers said they owe it to their fallen comrades to ensure that doesn’t happen.

“To me, it’s to speak out. It’s to say another generation should not go fight in an open-ended, ill-conceived regime change war in the Middle East,” said Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, his hand moving to a bracelet etched with the names of friends who were killed during his two Army combat tours in Iraq.

Others remembered how frustrated they became with Washington during their service, especially as soldiers tried to fight with insufficiently armored vehicles and not enough troops.

“I know what it was like to be on the very end of the receiving line of the decisions made in Washington,” said Democratic Rep. Jason Crow, who entered the Army as a private before being promoted to a captain and deployed to both Iraq and Afghanistan.

Crow said that front-line soldiers often suffered “because people stopped asking tough questions. People stopped being held accountable. Congress stopped voting on it.”

Another veteran, Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, said that was one of the reasons she sought a congressional seat in the first place. As a Blackhawk helicopter pilot with the Illinois National Guard, Duckworth lost her legs when her helicopter was hit by a rocket-propelled grenade in Iraq.

“I ran for Congress so that when the drums of war started beating once again, I’d be in a position to make sure that our elected officials fully considered the true cost of the war,” she said. “Not just in dollars and cents but in human lives.”

Groves writes for the Associated Press.

Twelve days ago the U.S., a World Cup host country, launched a full-scale bombing campaign against Iran, a country that has qualified to play in the tournament. That’s never happened before.

Five days later, that same World Cup host began military operations inside the borders of Ecuador, another World Cup qualifier, half a world away. That’s never happened before either.

With the tournament scheduled to kick off in three months, those events have soccer scholar Jonathan Wilson questioning whether it’s wise for the World Cup to go on at all.

“It seems to me, for each passing day, it’s less and less likely that the World Cup can happen,” he said.

That take seems unduly alarmist said David Goldblatt, a British sportswriter and sociologist who is a visiting professor at Pitzer College in Claremont. Anything short of a full-scale war inside the U.S. would not be enough to pull the plug on the tournament now, he said. Especially with FIFA expecting revenues of as much as $11 billion.

“I mean, it’s not a good look,” Goldblatt conceded. “And certainly when set against FIFA’s official pronouncements on its role in encouraging world peace and cosmopolitan celebrations of a universal humanity, none of that sits terribly easily.

“But in terms of actually running the World Cup, I don’t think it’s going to make very much difference at all.”

However, with the Trump administration open to engaging in more international conflicts, there’s little doubt this World Cup, the largest and most complex in history, will also be the most political in history as well.

Complicating things further is the fact the current conflict in the Middle East hasn’t been limited to just the U.S. and Iran. Iranian missiles have hit both Qatar and Saudi Arabia, among other countries, and Jordan has fired on U.S. assets.

Those three countries are World Cup qualifiers as well.

The fate of a soccer tournament pales in importance to the death and destruction the conflagration in the Middle East has produced, of course. But the need for unity is the very reason there’s a World Cup in the first place.

When French soccer administrator Jules Rimet founded the tournament 96 years ago, he believed soccer could be a tool for international peace. And in the early years of the tournament, Rimet, FIFA’s longest-serving president and a talented diplomat, was able to limit the impact of geopolitics on the World Cup, watering down Mussolini’s influence on the 1934 World Cup, for example, and steering the 1938 tournament away from Hitler’s Germany.

FIFA President Gianni Infantino has taken a far different approach, courting President Donald Trump’s support despite his growing number of global conflicts.

A week before bombs began falling on Iran, Infantino appeared at the inaugural meeting of Trump’s Board of Peace wearing a red cap with ‘USA’ on the front and the numbers ‘45-47’ — a reference to Trump’s non-consecutive presidencies. That act was so blatantly partisan, IOC president Kirsty Coventry said her organization would investigate whether Infantino, an IOC member, breached the terms of the group’s charter, which requires members to act independent of political interests.

FIFA president Gianni Infantino holds up a USA hat as he attends the inaugural meeting for the Board of Peace at the Institute of Peace in Washington on Feb. 19.

(Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images)

“Infantino has absolutely breached every FIFA protocol on neutrality,” said Wilson, author of “The Power and Glory: The History of the World Cup.”

“Absolute neutrality is always impossible and not desirable, but it has clearly gone way, way, way beyond. The peace prize looked grotesque at the time. It looks even worse now. And I can’t see how the future will look kindly on Infantino. I think Infantino has to some extent legitimized Trump.”

This is hardly new behavior from Infantino, who had close relationships with Vladimir Putin ahead of the 2018 tournament played in Russia and Qatar’s leaders ahead of the 2022 tournament despite their well-known human rights violations.

The list of countries Infantino is asking to overlook poor relations with the country hosting the majority of World Cup games this summer is growing.

Consider that Denmark, which administers Greenland, an autonomous territory Trump has also threatened to invade, can qualify for the tournament in a European playoff that will take place later this month. Then there’s World Cup qualifiers Haiti, Ivory Coast and Senegal, who aren’t at war with the U.S. but whose citizens have been banned from entering the country to cheer for their teams. That completely contradicts a promise from Infantino, who said “everybody will be welcome” at the 2026 World Cup.

“If I had a crystal ball I could tell you now what is going to happen,” Heimo Schirgi, the World Cup chief operating officer for FIFA, said Monday. “But obviously the situation is developing. It’s changing day by day and we are monitoring closely. [But] the World Cup will go on right? The World Cup is too big and we hope that everyone can participate that has qualified.”

Goldblatt, the Pitzer professor, said Infantino’s action are understandable since he has few cards to play against Trump.

President Trump speaks as he receives the FIFA Peace Prize as FIFA president Gianni Infantino applauds on Dec. 5 the Kennedy Center in Washington.

(Patrick Smith / Getty Images)

“What’s Infantino going to do? What levers can you pull?” he asked. “You can threaten to take it away. That’s not happening. Moral admonishment? Who’s going to take that from FIFA? It is a farcical idea that anybody thinks that the president of FIFA has any kind of collective moral authority or any role as a spokesperson for the progressive part of the world.

“They may fantasize that this is the case. But it is morally and politically absurd that any of us should expect that of these people. So if you are Infantino and that is the case, you know what works with Trump? What works is flattery. So of course he’s gone down that path.”

The games, Goldblatt said, will go on even if bombs are still falling. And that may not be an entirely bad thing.

“Football’s a great distraction. That’s partly why it’s so popular,” he said. “It will be virtually impossible, if the war continues, for that not to be a central element of like, the meaning and the purpose of what we’re all doing here.

“How we’ll feel and what it will look like, I don’t know. It will be very strange. Football is unpredictable and extraordinary. Something will happen that will warm our souls.”

⚽ You have read the latest installment of On Soccer with Kevin Baxter. The weekly column takes you behind the scenes and shines a spotlight on unique stories. Listen to Baxter on this week’s episode of the “Corner of the Galaxy” podcast.

Protesters blocked a bus carrying Iran’s women’s football team outside a hotel in Australia after five players slipped away to seek asylum duing the Women’s Asian Cup. They say the remaining players could face danger if forced to return to Iran after staying silent during the national anthem.

Vladimir Putin has presented multiple proposals to mediate the conflict in Iran, according to the Kremlin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday that the proposals are “still on the table,” emphasizing Russia’s readiness to help reduce tensions.

Peskov noted that any diplomatic solution requires coordination across multiple parties and agreements, signaling that Moscow intends to play a careful, measured role rather than rushing into mediation. This framing underscores Russia’s attempt to position itself as a credible intermediary while retaining influence over the conflict’s trajectory.

Recent Putin-Trump Contact

The remarks came after a phone call between Putin and Donald Trump on Monday, in which Putin reportedly offered options to end the Iran war quickly. Trump publicly said that Putin “wants to be helpful,” but added that resolving the Ukraine conflict would be an even more useful contribution.

The exchange highlights how Russia’s involvement in Iran is intertwined with its broader geopolitical interests, particularly in Europe and the Middle East. Moscow’s dual focus on positioning as a mediator and protecting its strategic priorities in Ukraine illustrates its careful diplomatic balancing act.

Russia-Iran Relations and Strategic Calculations

Russia maintains a strategic partnership with Iran, which provides it leverage in regional energy and security affairs. While Moscow has condemned U.S. and Israel military actions against Iran, it has also economically benefited from the resulting surge in oil prices.

Reports that Russia may have shared targeting intelligence with Tehran have drawn scrutiny, although Peskov declined to confirm or deny them. By avoiding direct comment, Russia preserves operational flexibility and manages international perceptions, allowing it to maintain influence with Iran while publicly projecting a mediating stance.

Analytical Perspective: Mediation Amid Strategic Interests

Russia’s position reflects a calculated effort to balance diplomacy and national interest. Keeping mediation proposals publicly “on the table” serves several purposes:

1. Diplomatic Leverage: By signaling willingness to mediate, Russia positions itself as a necessary interlocutor for any resolution, increasing its bargaining power with both the U.S. and Iran.
2. Strategic Buffering: Moscow preserves its ties with Tehran, protecting a partner in the Middle East while benefiting from higher oil prices amid global supply shocks.
3. Geopolitical Messaging: The Kremlin is communicating to the West that Russia can influence outcomes in the Middle East, reinforcing its image as a global power capable of shaping crises beyond its immediate borders.

This approach highlights a broader Russian strategy: maintain engagement in multiple theaters simultaneously Ukraine, Iran, and energy markets while avoiding overt entanglement that could provoke direct confrontation with the U.S. or NATO.

Conclusion: Patient Diplomacy as a Strategic Tool

Moscow’s emphasis on patience and coordination indicates that Russia is playing the long game, using mediation as a tool to expand influence rather than as a purely humanitarian effort. Analysts suggest that this approach allows Russia to extract maximum strategic advantage, balancing its regional partnerships, energy interests, and global standing, while leaving room to maneuver depending on how the Iran conflict evolves.

Russia’s dual role as both potential mediator and strategic partner to Tehran exemplifies the complex interplay of diplomacy, energy politics, and military calculation in the Middle East.

With information from Reuters.

The Iranian women’s footballers returning to the country after their Asian Cup campaign in Australia will be welcomed home “with open arms”, Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said.

Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei urged the players to “come home” on Tuesday, hours after five members of Iran’s squad sought asylum in Australia following their team’s exit from the tournament.

“To Iran’s women’s football team: don’t worry – Iran awaits you with open arms,” Baghaei wrote on X.

His post came shortly after the office of Iran’s general prosecutor said the remaining members of the team were invited back to the country “with peace and confidence”.

“These loved ones are invited to return to their homeland with peace and confidence, and in addition to addressing the concerns of their families,” the general prosecutor’s office was quoted as saying by Iran’s Tasnim news agency.

Australia’s decision to provide visas to five players came amid uncertainty and concerns for the team’s safety following their decision to stand in silence during Iran’s anthem before their first match of the tournament on March 3.

The players sang and saluted the anthem in their remaining two matches, on Thursday and Sunday, prompting fears that they could face punishment upon their return home.

Australian Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke told a news conference on Monday that he had informed the five members “that they are welcome to stay in Australia, that they are safe here, and they should feel at home here”.

He added that he had also offered the other team members the chance to stay in Australia.

The Department of Home Affairs named the five team members as captain Zahra Ghanbari, midfielders Fatemeh Pasandideh, Zahra Sarbali Alishah, Mona Hamoudi, and defender Atefeh Ramezanizadeh.

The players’ decision to stand in silence during Iran’s anthem before their match against South Korea was labelled as the “pinnacle of dishonour” by a commentator on Iran’s IRIB state broadcaster.

The announcement to grant the players visas came after United States President Donald Trump, who is currently waging war on Iran alongside ally Israel, said he had spoken to Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese about the “delicate situation” faced by the team, and that Albanese was “on it!”

Iran’s Baghaei dismissed Trump’s statement, questioning the US president’s claims of “saving” the players after new footage of a February 28 attack on an Iranian elementary girls’ school in Minab, which killed 165 students, suggested that the site of the school was likely hit by a Tomahawk missile – a weapon used by the US that Israel and Iran do not possess.

The US had previously accused Iran of the attack.

“They slaughtered more than 165 innocent Iranian schoolgirls in a double-tap Tomahawk attack in the city of Minab, and now they want to take our athletes hostage in the name of ‘saving’ them?” Baghaei said.

Following the Australian government’s decision to grant humanitarian visas to five Iranian players, they were moved to an undisclosed location under police protection, Australian officials were quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.

Iranian media quoted Farideh Shojaei, vice president for women’s affairs at the Iranian Football Federation, as saying the team had left the hotel through the back door with the police.

“We have contacted the embassy, the football federation, the ‌Foreign Ministry and anywhere possible to see what will happen,” she said.

“We have even spoken with the families of these five players.”

Some of the Iranian players left their hotel in the northeastern city of Gold Coast on Tuesday afternoon on a bus that was surrounded by members of the diaspora protesting against the Iranian government. They flew to Sydney airport on Tuesday evening before being transferred to the international terminal.

It was not clear how many players arrived at the airport or where they were going.

Trump initially posted on social media that Australia was “making a terrible humanitarian mistake” by allowing the team to be sent back home, apparently unaware that Australia had been in secret talks with the women for several days.

Trump said members of the team would “likely be killed” if forced to return to Iran. “The US will take them if you won’t,” he added.

In a later post, Trump said he had spoken to Albanese and that the Australian leader was “doing a very good job having to ⁠do with this rather delicate situation”.

The Iranian general prosecutor’s office said “some members of our country’s women’s football team have, unintentionally and emotionally provoked by the enemy’s conspiracy and mischief, behaved in a way that has caused the delusional excitement of the criminal leaders of the imposed American-Zionist war.”

The US and Israel attacks on Iran have killed 1,255 people in the country and left 1,200 injured after 11 days.

Tehran has responded by launching waves of missiles and drones at Israel and towards several military bases in the Middle East where US forces operate.

Antonio Costa says Russia benefits from soaring global energy prices and attention being diverted from war in Ukraine.

European Council President Antonio Costa has said Russia is the only country benefitting from the US-Israeli war on Iran, as global energy prices soar and attention from Moscow’s four-year conflict with Ukraine is diverted.

Now in its 11th day, the war has spiralled rapidly throughout the region as Iranian forces hit back at US and Israeli targets, as well as facilities in the Gulf. It has also slowed oil and natural gas flows through the strategic Strait of Hormuz to a near standstill, pushing fuel prices upwards and threatening far-reaching impacts on a number of industries.

“So far, there is only one winner in this war – Russia,” Costa said in a speech to European Union ambassadors in Brussels on Tuesday.

“It gains ‌new resources to finance its war against Ukraine as energy prices rise. It profits from the diversion of military capabilities that could otherwise have been sent to support Ukraine. And it benefits from reduced ⁠attention to the Ukrainian front ⁠as the conflict in the Middle East takes centre stage.”

Costa stressed the need for the EU to protect ⁠the international rules-based order, which he said was now being challenged ⁠by the United States, ⁠and for all parties in the Middle East to return to the negotiating table.

“Freedom and human rights cannot ‌be achieved through bombs. Only international law upholds them,” he said. “We must avoid further escalation. ‌Such ‌a path threatens the Middle East, Europe, and beyond.”

The US and Israeli attack on Iran triggered the biggest spike in oil prices on Monday since the turmoil following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Costa’s comments came as the Kremlin said all parties wanted to continue US-mediated Russia-Ukraine peace talks, but that no date or venue had been agreed yet for the next round.

Russia and Ukraine held three rounds of talks in Turkiye last year and have conducted several more US-mediated sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva this year. But they remain far apart on key issues, especially on Russia’s demand for Ukraine to cede control of the whole of its eastern Donetsk region.

On Monday, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, held their first phone call of the year, during which they discussed the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

The Kremlin said the possibility of lifting US sanctions on Russian oil had not been discussed in any detail with Washington, but that US actions were aimed at stabilising global energy markets.

Following this call, Putin said Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter and holder of the biggest natural gas reserves, was ready to work again with European customers if they wanted to return to long-term cooperation.

Before the Ukraine war, Europe was buying more than 40 percent of its gas from Russia. By 2025, combined sales of pipeline gas and LNG from Russia accounted for only 13 percent of total EU imports.

Also on Monday, Trump said his administration would lift some sanctions on oil-producing countries to keep energy prices down – though he did not say which ones.

Washington currently maintains sanctions on the oil sectors of Russia, Iran and Venezuela.

The Reuters news agency, citing multiple unnamed sources, reported that Trump was considering easing sanctions on Russia as part of his plans to keep oil prices down.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week announced a 30-day waiver on sanctions on Russian oil sales to India to help it cope with the cuts to Middle East supply.

Investors placed strong bets on Tuesday that Donald Trump could bring the war in Iran to a rapid conclusion, even as both sides escalated threats. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps of Iran declared that no oil would leave the Middle East until U.S. and Israeli attacks cease, prompting Trump to threaten that any attempt to block tanker traffic would be met with strikes “twenty times harder.”

Despite the rhetoric, markets quickly reversed the historic surge in crude prices seen on Monday. Brent crude briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel, a level not seen since mid‑2022, but fell back to around $92 by Tuesday morning. Futures volumes were low, reflecting both caution and the fact that traders were recalibrating risk based on Trump’s comments that the U.S. was “very far ahead” of his initial four- to five-week timeframe for the conflict. Asian and European share prices staged a recovery from earlier steep falls, signaling that markets were treating Trump’s statements as a de-escalation signal, even if the on-the-ground situation remained dire.

Analysts noted that while the market’s reaction reflects optimism about a short conflict, underlying risks remain. Suvro Sarkar of DBS Bank observed that benchmark Middle Eastern grades like Murban and Dubai crude remain above $100 per barrel, meaning the fundamental pressures on supply have not dissipated.

On the Ground: Intensified Conflict

Meanwhile, the human and strategic realities on the ground remain stark. Tehran residents described the heaviest bombardment of the conflict yet, with strikes across the city leaving civilians fearful and homes damaged. One resident said, “It was like hell. They were bombing everywhere, every part of Tehran… my children are afraid to sleep now. We have nowhere to go.”

Israel is simultaneously operating under the assumption that Trump could end the war at any moment, sources familiar with its military plans told Reuters. This has encouraged Israeli forces to maximize damage on Iranian targets before any potential ceasefire, highlighting the tension between the short-term operational calculus and long-term strategic objectives.

Iran’s appointment of hardliner Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader signals defiance against U.S. pressure to influence Iranian leadership, underscoring Tehran’s unwillingness to yield to external demands despite the military pressure.

Strategic Implications: Oil, Leadership, and Geopolitics

The war has effectively halted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz policy measures such as easing sanctions on Russia and releasing strategic oil reserves, are interpreted by markets as mitigating factors that could prevent a prolonged energy crisis.

However, the underlying political and military dynamics suggest that a rapid resolution may not meet all stated U.S. objectives. Ending the conflict quickly to restore oil flows would likely leave Iran’s leadership intact, which contrasts with Trump’s previous maximalist demands for influence over Iran’s succession. Israel’s objectives diverge further, as it continues to seek regime change and to weaken Tehran’s ability to strike beyond its borders, while U.S. officials emphasize missile and nuclear containment.

Human and Regional Costs

The war has already inflicted significant human costs. Iran’s U.N. ambassador reported at least 1,332 civilian deaths and thousands wounded since the airstrikes began. Iranian missile and drone strikes targeting Gulf states have damaged infrastructure, closed airports, and disrupted hotels, while retaliatory Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed scores amid ongoing efforts to neutralize Hezbollah.

Domestically, Iran has suppressed dissent and anti-government protests following the death of Ali Khamenei, further complicating the social dynamics that external military action interacts with. Large-scale rallies in support of Mojtaba Khamenei demonstrate public mobilization in favor of the hardline leadership, which may limit the U.S. and Israel’s capacity to influence internal political outcomes even after the war concludes.

Analysis: Financial, Strategic, and Geopolitical Interplay

Markets are betting on a short conflict because of political signaling, but the broader picture is far more complex. Oil prices remain sensitive to supply disruptions, and the potential for renewed escalations persists. The market response highlights how sentiment can temporarily override fundamental risks, yet volatility is likely to continue as long as strategic objectives, military operations, and leadership decisions remain unresolved.

From a geopolitical perspective, the conflict illustrates the tension between military objectives and economic consequences. A rapid end to the war would stabilize energy markets and global growth expectations but may leave U.S. and Israeli goals partially unmet. Conversely, prolonging the conflict to pursue maximalist aims risks a sustained oil shock, regional instability, and wider economic fallout, echoing lessons from past Middle East crises in the 1970s.

Analysts emphasize that energy markets, geopolitical strategy, and human costs are tightly intertwined: traders respond quickly to political statements, but the underlying realities strikes, leadership decisions, and supply chain vulnerabilities ensure that uncertainty will remain high. The delicate balance between military pressure, diplomacy, and market psychology will determine whether the Iran conflict resolves quickly or evolves into a more protracted crisis.

With information from Reuters.

The United States and Israel’s war on Iran has caused the largest energy supply shock in decades.

The Strait of Hormuz is in effect closed, and attacks are being carried out on energy facilities in the Middle East, rattling oil markets.

From Americans filling their tanks at the pump to European factories and Asian economies, the impact is already being felt.

US President Donald Trump says the rise in oil prices is a “very small price to pay” for “safety and peace”. But investors warn that if the conflict drags on, there’s danger of stagflation.

A suspected Iranian attack on a high-rise residential building in Bahrain’s capital of Manama has killed a 29-year-old Bahraini woman and injured several others.

Surging energy prices caused by the US-Israel war on Iran could ripple across the United States economy, heaping further strain on consumers at a time when cost-of-living issues are already a primary concern.

The price of crude oil increased from about $67 per barrel before the war began on February 28 to nearly $97 on Monday, as the conflict snarls production and transport in one of the most energy-rich regions on earth. Oil temporarily passed $100 per barrel on Sunday before slightly easing back.

The price tracker GasBuddy reported on Monday that the average price of gas in the US has risen by 51 cents per gallon over the last week.

“Yes, yes, definitely,” said 52-year-old Alma Newell when asked if she was worried about price increases at a gas station in the coastal city of Goleta, California.

Newell said she is out of work with a shoulder injury and worried that rising costs could stretch her already limited budget.

“The prices have a big impact because I’m not working right now,” she said. “Food and rent are already very expensive.”

“It’s crazy,” she added. “Because the war is so unnecessary.”

Cost of living issues

Rising prices could deepen frustration with the administration of US President Donald Trump and put greater political pressure on the White House, already struggling to address cost-of-living issues with the crucial midterm elections set to take place later this year.

“I think the current price increase in oil suggests the US will see $3.50 to $4 gasoline by next week, and $5 diesel this week,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst on Iran and oil at the Eurasia Group.

The highest recorded average for gas prices at the pump was in June 2022, when prices soared to $5.034, months after the Russian war on Ukraine started, according to Gas Buddy, which tracks fuel prices going back to 2008.

“The impact 1773123967 is more political than economic, as high gasoline prices generate negative press and can add to the perception that the government is not properly handling the economy. That means Trump will feel more political pressure to end this war quickly.”

A Pew Research Center poll in early February suggested widespread anxiety about the rising cost-of-living before the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, with 68 percent of respondents saying they were very or somewhat concerned about gas prices.

“I’m not too worried myself because I have a hybrid car and ride my bike,” said 72-year-old Bjorn Birmir at the gas station in Goleta, California. “But for people in general, it will make life more expensive. Prices are already high, and it will make them even higher.”

Ongoing disruptions

The disruptions caused by the war include the shuttering of the Strait of Hormuz, a key node in global transit and shipping. Iran has long said that it could close down the strait in the event of a showdown with the US and Israel.

About 20 percent of global oil and a significant portion of natural gas pass through the strait, predominantly to Asia, supplies that are now stranded as traffic through the narrow waterway has ground to a halt. Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in countries across the region have also led some countries to scale back production.

Other economic sectors are also feeling the squeeze.

Goods such as fertiliser, vital for agricultural production, are seeing price increases just ahead of the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere. About one-third of the global fertiliser trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Effects of the war could ripple throughout the global economy, with poor countries especially hard-hit. Pakistan announced a series of austerity measures and cuts to fuel subsidies on Monday, while Bangladesh shuttered universities and announced restrictions on fuel use as a result of the war.

US officials and countries around the world have already discussed measures to help ease the shock of rising energy prices, including the potential release of strategic oil reserves in a bid to temporarily boost global supply.

The G7 said on Monday that it would take “necessary measures” to support energy supplies, but held off on announcing the release of strategic reserves, with energy ministers set to meet on Tuesday to discuss the matter further.

The US has a strategic oil reserve of more than 415 million barrels, one of the largest in the world, that it could release in coordination with allied countries.

But it is unclear when these measures would kick in and how long such steps could help fill the gaps created by the war.

Rachel Ziemba, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, says that much depends on whether the war is brought to a speedy conclusion or continues on for weeks or even months, with the possibility of further escalation.

Thus far, neither the US and Israel nor Iran has suggested it are willing to stop the war anytime soon, although Trump told CBS News on Monday that “the war is very complete, pretty much”, comments that helped ease some of the price swings in oil and stocks.

“If the war continues, we would see oil prices not only remain elevated, but perhaps rally further as markets price in a more protracted outage,” said Ziemba. “There’s also the question of, when it does end, how much damage will be done to infrastructure and just how quickly supplies could come back online.”

Initial polling has suggested that the war is unpopular in the US, with a Quinnipiac University poll released on Monday finding that 53 percent of voters who responded oppose Trump’s military action in Iran, including 60 percent of political independents.

That lack of popular support could present a political headache for Trump and his Republican Party if voters connect the war to increasing prices. Thus far, Trump has largely dismissed concerns about the war’s possible impact on the rising cost of living.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for USA, and World, Safety and Peace,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday. “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

When a state’s political leadership announces a ceasefire and its military keeps firing, the instinct is to reach for deception as the explanation. In Iran’s case, the more unsettling answer may be structural. The gap between what Iranian presidents say and what Iranian forces do reflects not a coordinated lie but a command architecture deliberately engineered to operate without central direction. In a serious conflict, the consequences of that architecture would be felt well beyond Iran’s borders.

A Command Architecture Designed to Survive Decapitation

In September 2008, IRGC Commander General Mohammad Ali Jafari oversaw a sweeping restructuring that divided the force into thirty-one provincial corps, each empowered to conduct military operations within its zone without requiring authorization from the center. As Michael Connell of the Center for Naval Analyses noted in his analysis for the United States Institute of Peace, the intent was to strengthen unit cohesion and ensure operational continuity under degraded command conditions. He flagged explicitly that the decentralization could produce unintended escalation dynamics, particularly in the Persian Gulf.

That warning deserves serious attention. The IRGC’s Mosaic Defense doctrine was not designed to make Iran more responsive to political leadership in a crisis. It was designed to ensure that military operations could continue regardless of what happened to that leadership. A force structured that way does not stop firing because a president gives a speech.

The Apology That Wasn’t

The internal contradiction becomes clearest when traced through a hypothetical cascade. A president announces a ceasefire and attributes the directive to an Interim Leadership Council. A fellow council member publicly declares that heavy strikes will continue. A hardline cleric addresses the president directly, calling his position untenable. By the time the president’s original statement is reposted, the ceasefire language has been quietly removed.

The IRGC’s own posture in this scenario resolves the ambiguity on structural grounds. It endorses the president’s language, then appends a caveat that renders it inoperative: all US and Israeli military bases and interests across the region remain primary targets. Since every GCC state hosts American forces, that framing preserves full operational freedom while allowing the presidency to project restraint. The contradiction is not incidental. It is the doctrine functioning as designed.

The Theological Dimension

Iran is not simply a military organization. It is a theocratic state whose constitutional legitimacy flows from velayat-e faqih, the guardianship of the Islamic jurist, which vests supreme authority in a single clerical figure whose religious and political mandates are inseparable. Remove that figure, and the system’s legitimating architecture is suspended rather than transferred. The Assembly of Experts is constitutionally mandated to elect a successor, but wartime conditions would disrupt that process at precisely the moment its resolution matters most.

A RAND Corporation analysis prepared for the Office of the Secretary of Defense identified the IRGC as the institution best positioned to shape any post-Khamenei transition, with the organizational reach and economic weight to determine outcomes that civilian institutions cannot contest. The result, in a decapitation scenario, is a theocratic state operating without its theological anchor and a military operating under pre-delegated authority with no one capable of recalling it.

Durability Without Effect

The Mosaic Defense doctrine would prove, above all, durable. A decentralized force can survive catastrophic leadership losses and sustain operations. But durability is not the same as capability, and sustained fire is not the same as strategic effect.

Iran’s theory of regional attrition, the calculation that sustained strikes against Gulf infrastructure and American basing would fracture GCC cohesion and coerce Arab neighbors toward neutrality, has produced no evidence of working. The GCC bloc has held. Individual member states have coordinated their responses rather than fractured under pressure. The country absorbing the sharpest volume of Iranian strike activity, the UAE, has demonstrated air defense performance that has exceeded even optimistic prewar assessments. Publicly available figures suggest UAE systems have defeated upward of ninety percent of inbound threats, a result that reflects years of sustained investment, deep integration with American and Israeli platforms, and an operational tempo that has stress-tested those systems at genuine scale.

The picture that emerges is not one of Iran winning a war of attrition. It is one of an Iran burning through accessible inventory, losing launch infrastructure faster than it can regenerate, and discovering that the regional architecture it spent years attempting to destabilize has proven considerably more resilient than it calculated.

That resilience carries its own strategic meaning. A weakened force operating under pre-delegated authority, without a supreme leader to set limits, remains dangerous in a narrow tactical sense. But it is operating without a coherent end state, and the environment it faces is not the one it anticipated. The GCC’s collective posture and the demonstrated effectiveness of layered air defense across the Gulf have closed off the strategic outcomes Iran’s doctrine was written to achieve.

The scenario is instructive for what it reveals about the limits of decentralized military design. A force built to keep firing regardless of political direction is also a force that cannot be steered toward an exit. But the Gulf states have demonstrated something of equal importance in response: that resilience, properly built and consistently resourced, can outlast a doctrine designed for chaos, and that the regional order Iran sought to unravel has shown itself capable of absorbing the blow.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said air-to-air missiles and a reconnaissance plane will be sent to region amid conflict with Iran.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Australia will deploy a long-range reconnaissance aircraft and send air-to-air missiles to help countries in the Gulf region defend against Iranian attacks.

“The Iranian conflict in the Middle East began just over a week ago, and Iran’s reprisal attacks continue to escalate, already at a scale and depth we haven’t seen before. Twelve countries across the region, from Cyprus through to the Gulf, are continuing to be targeted,” Albanese said in a news conference on Tuesday.

He said the Royal Australian Air Force will send an E7A Wedgetail surveillance aircraft and supporting personnel to “protect and secure airspace above the Gulf” for the next four weeks, and help the region with its “collective self-defence”.

Australia will also send advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles to the United Arab Emirates, he said, following a phone call with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Albanese cited the 115,000 Australians living in the Middle East – among them, 24,000 in the UAE – as a major factor behind the deployment of military assets.

“Helping Australians means also helping the United Arab Emirates and other Gulf nations defend themselves against what are unprovoked attacks,” he told reporters, stressing that the deployments were for defensive purposes only.

“My government has been clear: We are not taking offensive action against Iran, and we are clear we are not deploying Australian troops on the ground in Iran,” he said.

Some 2,600 Australians have left the Middle East since last week, Albanese said, but “significant challenges” remain in helping those who want to leave but remain in the region.

The prime minister’s announcement was immediately slammed by the opposition Greens party, which said Australia risks becoming embroiled in another US-led “forever war”.

Australia joined the US-led invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq in 2001 and 2003, and lost more than 50 personnel during the conflicts, according to the Australian War Memorial.

Greens Senator Larissa Waters said she feared more Australian lives were at risk with the announced deployments, which the government, led by the Labor Party, said would be accompanied by 85 Australian personnel.

“Australians do not want to get dragged into Trump and Netanyahu’s illegal war on Iran. Labor shouldn’t be sending troops to help a military that’s killed 150 schoolchildren in a primary school bombing. That will only escalate an illegal conflict that’s already spiralling out of control, and leave Australia trapped in yet another forever war,” Waters said in a statement on Tuesday.

“Every day Trump and Netanyahu’s demands of Australia keep growing. It was refuelling US spy planes yesterday, a recon jet and missiles today, and could be ever more troops tomorrow. Labor has no red lines when it comes to appeasing Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu,” she said, referring to the US president and Israeli prime minister, respectively.

Albanese said separately on Tuesday that Canberra has formally granted asylum to five members of Iran’s women’s football team, who were visiting Australia for the Asian Football Confederation Women’s Asian Cup 2026 in Queensland.

Albanese said the women had been issued with humanitarian visas and moved to a safe location with the assistance of Australian Federal Police.

“Australians have been moved by the plight of these brave women. They’re safe here, and they should feel at home here,” Albanese told reporters.

Modern wars are fought not only with weapons but with assumptions—and the most dangerous assumptions are often invisible to those making them. Donald Rumsfeld’s distinction between known unknowns (questions we recognize but cannot answer) and unknown unknowns (risks we have not even framed as questions) captures something essential about the current confrontation between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

The Nuclear Material Problem

The June 2025 12-day war struck several of Iran’s nuclear facilities but left the most consequential question unanswered: where is the material? The March 2026 campaign has struck deeper, targeting hardened and dispersed sites that June’s operations left intact. Yet the fundamental uncertainty has not resolved—it has compounded. Iran reportedly retains roughly 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%, approaching weapons-grade, and the precise location of that stockpile is now more opaque than before. On March 2, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported the entrance buildings of Iran’s underground Natanz enrichment plant had been bombed, but without inspection access, the agency cannot reconstruct a monitoring baseline.

The strategic paradox is acute. Any Iranian government—this one or a successor—must now confront a nuclear-armed Israel and a United States willing to strike Iranian territory twice in nine months. Under those conditions, nuclear capability looks less like a provocation and more like a rational insurance policy. The war may have permanently entrenched the very incentive it was designed to dismantle. A further risk of escaping conventional arms-control frameworks is if Iranian institutions fragment, specialized nuclear expertise disperses internationally, potentially becoming available to states or non-state actors.

Regime Change and What Follows

The war’s stated objective rests on uncertain ground. Intelligence assessments before the conflict reportedly concluded that even a large-scale assault was unlikely to produce regime collapse—yet the campaign proceeded anyway. The Iranian state has shown remarkable institutional resilience, with no visible defections among senior leadership, a government operating under its constitutional framework, and a regime that has absorbed the Iran-Iraq War, the Green Movement, and decades of sanctions.

War has accelerated the succession question around Ali Khamenei. One trajectory involves Mojtaba Khamenei, whose rise would mean dynastic continuity rather than transformation; another sees the IRGC consolidating power—equally misaligned with Western hopes. The question of what comes after was not answered before the bombs fell.

Retaliation, Major-Power Shadows, and Strategic Incoherence

Iran’s retaliation has demonstrated its asymmetric reach. The IRGC claims attacks on at least 27 bases hosting American troops across the region, alongside Israeli military facilities. Tehran appears to be pacing its response, sustaining an attrition campaign designed to exhaust interceptor stocks rather than overwhelm them in a single strike.

The major power dimensions compound this. Russia has reportedly been providing intelligence on American naval deployments; Chinese-linked entities have allegedly tracked US forces via satellite. Meanwhile, strategic incoherence in Washington compounds every other risk. Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth have framed this as a limited campaign against nuclear infrastructure; Trump has simultaneously floated regime change on social media.

The Munitions Race

The deepest structural vulnerability may not lie on the battlefield but in the arithmetic of an industrial system never designed to fight this kind of war. The first 36 hours consumed more than 3,000 precision-guided munitions and interceptors. Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine had warned that stockpiles were already significantly depleted before the first strike. Secretary Marco Rubio subsequently acknowledged that Iran produces an estimated 100 missiles a month versus roughly six or seven high-end interceptors that American industry can manufacture in the same period.

That deficit has a history. The US likely expended 100 to 150 THAAD interceptors and 80 SM-3s supporting Israel during June’s Twelve-Day War. Those stocks were never fully replenished. The bottlenecks are physical as well as financial. Lockheed Martin’s plan to raise PAC-3 MSE production to 2,000 units per year addresses a six-to-seven-year horizon, not the current emergency.

The drone dimension adds a layer officials have been slow to acknowledge. Hegseth and Caine admitted in a closed-door briefing that Iran’s Shahed drones present a challenge US air defenses cannot fully meet. The Shahed flies low and slow—hard to detect and poorly matched to the high-end interceptors THAAD and SM-3 are optimized to defeat. Intercepting a drone can cost roughly five times what it costs to manufacture one.

This crystallizes the war’s most consequential known unknown: how much of Iran’s arsenal reflects genuine capability, and how much reflects deliberate restraint? The IDF assessed Iran possessed roughly 2,500 ballistic missiles on February 11.

The search for emergency solutions has produced one remarkable geopolitical inversion. The Pentagon has approached Ukraine about purchasing drone interceptors. They are low-cost systems Ukrainian manufacturers developed specifically to hunt Shaheds, built from years of adapting to exactly the threat now confounding American air defenses in the Gulf. The US is buying drone killers from a country it recently all but abandoned! The implications extend to the Indo-Pacific. Every interceptor fired over the Gulf of Bahrain is one fewer available in the Taiwan Strait.

The Energy Shock

The Strait of Hormuz has moved from a textbook chokepoint to a live emergency. Tanker traffic has come to a near standstill. War-risk insurance premiums have made commercial passage unviable even where it remains physically possible. At least five tankers have been struck across the Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, and nearby waters. Approximately 20 million barrels of oil per day—a fifth of global consumption—normally transit the strait, alongside roughly 20% of global LNG trade. Traders are warning that oil prices could surge past $100 a barrel if the conflict in Iran continues to escalate. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that a full one-month closure would add $15 per barrel, assuming no compensating measures like spare pipeline utilization or releases from strategic petroleum reserves. Bank of America sees tail risk far higher, estimating a prolonged shutdown could add $40–$80 per barrel above current prices.

The LNG dimension may prove more immediately damaging than oil. QatarEnergy has halted production at Ras Laffan, the world’s largest LNG facility, after Iranian drone attacks. This has already caused European natural gas futures to spike. If global LNG tightens, Europe must compete with Asian buyers on price. That competition may, in turn, force Europe back toward Russian gas, quietly reversing one of the most consequential geopolitical achievements of the post-Ukraine sanctions era.

The exposure is global and unevenly distributed. China, India, Japan, and South Korea account for roughly 75% of Hormuz crude exports and 59% of its LNG flows. South Korea has warned it could exhaust LNG reserves within nine days and has announced a 100 trillion won stabilization fund. India is pivoting toward Russian crude. These developments structurally benefit Moscow regardless of the war’s outcome.

The fertilizer dimension compounds the energy shock with a slower fuse. Nitrogen fertilizers are manufactured from natural gas; roughly a third of globally traded urea transits Hormuz. QatarEnergy’s halt removes fertilizer output simultaneously with LNG. Urea prices have already surged $60 to $80 per ton at New Orleans, with the spring planting window closing. The food-price consequences will not appear in grocery stores for months. But they are already locked in.

The Gulf Security Paradox

For decades the Gulf states managed their rivalry with Iran below the threshold of open confrontation, relying on the American security umbrella while avoiding direct entanglement. The war has collapsed that strategy. The Gulf states did not arrive at this crisis as Iran’s adversaries but rather as reluctant bystanders who had invested enormous diplomatic capital in preventing it. They gave ironclad assurances to Tehran, both before the war and up to its eve, that their territories would not serve as launchpads. That Iran responded by striking these same neighbors is a strategic miscalculation of historic proportions and a moral failure that may poison relations for a generation.

This has opened a structural debate now conducted in public. Is American military presence a protective shield or a magnet for retaliation? Citizens and analysts are asking why Gulf states should bear the risk of hosting US forces when Washington appears unable to protect them. Undoubtedly, Tehran understands this dynamic. Drone strikes on UAE-based data centers targeted Gulf publics’ confidence in the connectivity model as much as American commercial interests. The UAE and Saudi Arabia have staked their post-oil futures on projecting stability and attracting mobile capital. Intercepting most of the incoming fire is not sufficient when global firms are deciding where to invest next decade.

The crisis confronts the Gulf Cooperation Council with a strategic fork. One path leads toward deeper collective security, featuring integrated missile defense, expanded intelligence sharing, and coordinated maritime protection that could reduce dependence on any single external patron. The other leads toward renewed fragmentation as internal rivalries re-emerge.

Former Qatari prime minister Hamad bin Jassim bin Jaber Al Thani warned that the Gulf “must not be dragged into a direct confrontation with Iran,” arguing that such a clash would “deplete the resources of both sides and provide an opportunity for outside forces to control us under the pretext of helping us escape the crisis.” Yet the same crisis that could finally catalyze genuine Gulf collective security could just as easily deepen the divisions that have historically prevented it.

The Mediator’s Dilemma and the Meta-Unknown

The conflict has also damaged the diplomatic architecture that previously helped manage US-Iran tensions. Oman and Qatar built genuine credibility as intermediaries through years of patient back-channel work. Effective mediation requires neutrality. When conflict spreads into the territory of potential mediators, that credibility erodes. Iran’s decision to strike the very states whose neutrality made diplomacy possible may have burned the bridges needed to end the war—which is perhaps the most consequential unknown unknown in the entire conflict, second only to the US twice striking Iran in the span of nine months while negotiations were still ongoing.

At the deepest level lies a question no intelligence assessment can answer: whether the strategic logic of the war is coherent at all. Negotiations failed because each side demanded outcomes the other could not accept. The same incompatibility that made diplomacy impossible may make military victory equally elusive. Iran cannot surrender unconditionally without ceasing to be the Islamic Republic. And the conditions that make nuclear deterrence attractive to any Iranian government—this one or a successor—have not been removed by the strikes; they have been reinforced.

Conclusion

In sum, the US-Israeli campaign against Iran has illuminated the limits of military certainty. Known unknowns—munition shortages, asymmetric retaliation, and energy vulnerabilities—interact with unknown unknowns—nuclear dispersal, regime succession, and Gulf fragmentation—to create a conflict whose trajectory is inherently unpredictable. Rather than eliminating threats, the strikes may have entrenched incentives for nuclear retention, incentivized strategic caution, and stressed regional and global systems. The coherence of the war itself is in question, as military action and diplomacy pull in contradictory directions. Ultimately, the conflict underscores that modern warfare is as much about managing uncertainties as it is about destroying targets.

The reported idea of a special operation to seize Iran’s uranium should alarm anyone who still thinks there is a line between pressure and recklessness. Sending foreign forces into Iranian territory to capture nuclear material would be far beyond coercion. It would be war in plain sight. That risk looks even sharper when it is paired with talk of unconditional surrender and a revived maximum pressure campaign. Officials call that flexibility. In practice, it often creates confusion and a dangerous illusion of control.

Strategic Ambiguity Has Limits

Trump has long preferred threat inflation as a negotiating tool, and his administration’s National Security Presidential Memorandum on Iran makes clear that Washington wants to deny Tehran every path to a bomb. But there is a difference between pressure meant to shape diplomacy and rhetoric that drifts toward occupation logic. A raid assumes the United States can enter a sovereign state, take possession of fissile material, and leave without igniting a larger conflict. That is not strategy. It is a gamble.

A Raid Would Not Stay Small

Iran is not an isolated militia camp. It is a large state with layered security organs, missile capacity, regional partners, and a long memory of external intervention. Any attempt to seize uranium by force would expose American troops, bases, shipping lanes, diplomats, and partners to retaliation across several fronts. Even before talk of a raid, Washington and Tehran had been engaged in indirect nuclear talks in Oman. Replacing diplomacy with a ground mission would not create leverage. It would destroy what remains of a controlled bargaining space.

The Nuclear Picture Is Already Murky

The hardest fact in this debate is that the nuclear picture is already uncertain. In its February 2026 safeguards report, the IAEA said it could not verify the current status of facilities hit in June 2025. Reuters later highlighted that same report’s estimate that Iran had 440.9 kilograms enriched up to 60 percent before the strikes, while the Associated Press noted the wider stockpile had reached 9,874.9 kilograms of enriched uranium in total. Reuters also reported a cat-and-mouse hunt for missing material and confirmed that tunnel entrances at Isfahan were hit. Those facts do not make a commando operation look cleaner. They make it look less knowable.

Force Has Already Damaged Oversight

This is the contradiction hawks avoid. Military action may damage buildings, but it can also damage the inspection system needed to track what survives. The IAEA chief said that returning to Iranian sites was the top priority after the attacks because the agency had lost visibility. Reuters warned even before the war that any new Iran deal would have to address serious watchdog blind spots. Rafael Grossi had already reminded the Security Council that nuclear facilities must never be attacked and later stressed that inspectors must be allowed to do their job. Once oversight is broken, claims about perfect control become less credible.

Pressure Without Diplomacy Can Harden Iran

Advocates of seizure argue that urgency changes the rules. Their point is easy to grasp. If material has been moved, hidden, or split across sites, then delay is dangerous. But urgency cuts both ways. The less certainty there is, the more any raid grows in scope. A supposedly limited mission can quickly expand into repeated searches, broader strikes, and pressure for a longer presence. That trajectory sits uneasily with both the basic ban on the use of force in the UN Charter and the logic of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which depends on verification and compliance, not theatrical confiscation. Reuters has also shown that the damage from earlier strikes was difficult to measure and that U.S. officials later said there was no known intelligence that Iran had moved the uranium. That uncertainty is exactly why fantasies of a clean raid should be treated with suspicion.

Containment Is Less Dramatic, but Safer

There is another reason to reject this path. Public overstatement can create policy traps. Trump has already brushed aside internal caution, including when Reuters reported that he said his own intelligence chief was wrong about Iran’s program. Tehran, for its part, has insisted through officials speaking to Reuters that it will not give up enrichment under pressure. That is not a recipe for surrender. It is a recipe for concealment and hardening. Serious policy should focus on intelligence work, restored IAEA access, sustained diplomatic pressure backed by credible penalties, and a clear effort to prevent a regional war that would leave the uranium question even murkier.

The appeal of seizure is obvious. It sounds decisive and final. But nuclear crises rarely yield to cinematic solutions. They are managed through verification, containment, bargaining, and steady pressure, not through fantasies of absolute control. If this idea is truly being weighed in Washington, it should be rejected before rhetoric turns into mission planning. A ground effort to capture uranium inside Iran would not settle the problem. It could widen the war, shatter what diplomacy still exists, and leave the world with the same material, less oversight, and far more bloodshed.

Itamar Greenberg laughed when asked if he thought he should be afraid. The 19-year-old Israeli antiwar activist had just described being spat on in the street and is the target of an online hate campaign.

“Yes!” he finally responded. “If I thought about it, I probably should be. I just don’t have time.”

Voices like Greenberg’s are rare in Israel at a time when public clamour for war is growing, and genocidal language already familiar to millions of Palestinians is reemerging, but with a different target – Iran.

Officially, 11 Israelis have been killed in Iranian strikes since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28. What the actual number might be, or how many of Iran’s ballistic missiles may have penetrated the country’s Iron Dome defence shield, is unknown.

Speaking at the site of an Iranian missile strike in West Jerusalem, shortly after the start of the US-Israeli attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to the use of apocalyptic language that has characterised the genocide his country has conducted in Gaza. Comparing Iranians with the Jewish people’s biblical foe, Amalek, who the Jews had been divinely ordered to wipe from the face of the planet, Netanyahu told reporters: “In this week’s Torah portion, we read, “‘Remember what Amalek did to you.’ We remember, and we act.”

So far, Iran claims to have launched strikes across Israel, saying its missiles and drones hit military sites, symbolic infrastructure, and even Netanyahu’s office. Tehran has described the attacks as precise and strategic, rather than indiscriminate and part of a broader regional response. Iran also claims to have targeted locations such as Tel Aviv, Ben Gurion airport and Haifa.

However, Israeli officials have denied many of the specific claims. Netanyahu’s office dismissed Iranian assertions about hitting his office, or affecting his condition, as “fake news”, with stringent reporting restrictions on Iranian strikes within Israel making confirmation either way difficult.

What is clearer is that against the drumbeat of Iranian strikes, the fervour for war appears to be increasing among the public. A poll carried out last week by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI) suggested overwhelming public support for the war, with 93 percent of Jewish-Israeli respondents expressing support for the strikes on Iran, and 74 percent expressing support for Netanyahu, the country’s historically divisive prime minister.

“No one’s talking about opposition to the war,” Greenberg said, describing an environment in which figures from across Israel’s media and political landscape – with the exception of the left-wing Hadash party and antiwar organisations such as Greenberg’s Mesarvot – had lined up behind the war. “It’s also getting increasingly violent,” he said.

“We held a protest on Tuesday, where the police were already waiting. They beat and arrested us. I was illegally strip-searched,” he said, describing it as efforts intended to humiliate him.

Greenberg is no stranger to such tactics. Six months ago, after being arrested for protesting the genocide in Gaza, prison guards had threatened to carve a Star of David on his face, a permanent reminder of what they thought his priorities should be.

It’s not just antiwar activists who have faced the brunt of the Israeli security establishment’s force.

“The atmosphere is very violent,“ lawmaker Ofer Cassif of the Hadash party told Al Jazeera. “When I leave the house, I’m more worried by the danger posed by a physical attack by fascists than I am by any missile,” he said.

Hadash and lawmakers like Cassif have been targeted by physical threats and attacks throughout the Gaza war. But criticism of the Netanyahu government’s handling of Israeli captives in Gaza meant that opposition to the Gaza war was – comparatively – more socially acceptable. When it comes to Iran, the current climate is toxic, Cassif said.

“We’re often accused of supporting the regime in Tehran,” Cassif explained of the attempts to delegitimise their opposition to the war.

“We’re unequivocally not. We want to see that regime go, but we’re not going to allow Netanyahu to say he’s doing this for the Iranian people. He isn’t. That’s not just rhetoric, that’s fact. The Israeli leadership was just as supportive of the shah as the US, and he was a murderous dictator no less than the current regime,” Cassif said, referring to Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, the leader of Iran before the Islamic revolution.

For now, analysts and observers in Israel describe a society that believes it is almost engaged in a holy war.

“They brought an antiwar activist onto one of the light news programmes,” political analyst Ori Goldberg said from near Tel Aviv, “and she was treated like you would a flat-earther. It’s as if it’s inconceivable that anyone would oppose this war.

“Israel has become a society with no middle ground, no capacity for conversation. It’s as if our entire existence is dependent on our ability to do anything we want. And if the world tries to stop that, then the world’s anti-Semitic, and we all burn.”

The war is now in its 10th day, and Israel and the United States continue to trade blows with Iran, with further missile and drone strikes across the Middle East. Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s ability to execute more rapid heavy airstrikes against Iranian targets was stepped up further today, with the arrival at RAF Fairford in England of three U.S. Air Force B-52H Stratofortress bombers. The aircraft are from the 5th Bomb Wing at Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota.

The bombers arrived at Fairford after U.K. Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer approved so-called defensive U.S. actions against Iranian targets from British bases. This includes striking Iranian missile sites prior to them launching attacks.

The B-52s are part of a growing fleet of U.S. bombers at Fairford. The base received a single B-1B Lancer on Friday, and another two of the swing-wing bombers arrived on Saturday.

As well as making use of RAF Fairford to strike Iran, the change in U.K. government policy covers Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Satellite imagery from today that TWZ has reviewed via Planet Labs shows no sign of bombers on the island, but heavy transport aircraft continue to show up there, along with the handful of tankers and five F-16s currently operating from the Indian Ocean outpost.

B-52s have already flown missions against Iran from bases in the United States, delivering AGM-158 JASSM stealthy cruise missiles. These missiles would have launched from outside Iranian airspace, likely over Iraq or another friendly Arab country. You can read more about the implications of standoff strikes such as these in our previous analysis of the enduring Iranian air defense threat here.

As we have discussed repeatedly in recent weeks, having the bombers forward deployed to England and/or Diego Garcia will drastically increase sortie rates and decrease wear-and-tear on the precious bomber fleet compared to flying from the U.S. and back. This will become even more relevant if the B-1 and B-52 force move from making standoff strikes to direct attacks on Iranian targets, even if just over limited parts of the country where air supremacy is more guaranteed.

LATEST UPDATES

We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.

UPDATE: 7:30 PM EST –

Trump held a Monday evening press conference to address the situation in the Middle East. Among other things, Trump hinted, without offering specifics, that lasers are now being used for air and missile defense. CENTCOM pushed us to the White House for more details and we are awaiting their response.

Trump also said that Iran has Tomahawk missiles, which it doesn’t.

Here are some of the key takeaways from the briefing—

On when the war will be over:

Very soon. Look, everything they have is gone, including their leadership. In fact, they have two levels of leadership. And even actually, as it turns out, more than that. But two levels of leadership are gone. Most people have never even heard about the leaders that they’re talking about….We’re achieving major strides toward completing our military objective. And some people could say they’re pretty well complete.

On the use of lasers for air and missile defense:

So as you probably saw, they had a tremendous number of missiles, most of which have now been used or destroyed and very unsuccessfully used, because we have been able, for the most part, to shoot them all down. What incredible technology. The Patriots have been unbelievable. And other things. And the laser technology that we have now is incredible. It’s coming out pretty soon. Where literally lasers will do the work of, at a lot less cost, do the work of what the Patriots are doing or what other things are doing.

On whether U.S. Tomahawk missiles destroyed an Iranian girls’ school and whether the U.S. will take responsibility for that.

I will say that the Tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, sold and used by other countries. You know that, and whether it’s Iran who also has some Tomahawks, I wish they had more. But whether it’s Iran or somebody else, the fact that a Tomahawk – a Tomahawk is very generic. It’s sold to other countries, but that’s being investigated right now.

Responding to a reporter about why he is the only one in the administration suggesting that “Iran somehow got its hands on a Tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war.”

Because I just don’t know enough about it. I think it’s something that I was told is under investigation, but Tomahawks are used by others. As you know, numerous other nations have Tomahawks. They buy them from us. But I will certainly – whatever the report shows – I’m willing to live with that report.

On whether the new Supreme Leader “has a target on his back.”

I don’t want to say whether or not he does, because that would be inappropriate. 

On how many U.S. troop deaths he is willing to accept in this war.

Well, as I said before, when you have conflicts like this, you always have death. And I was in Dover yesterday, I met the parents, and they were unbelievable people. They were unbelievable people, but they all had one thing in common. They said to me, one thing every single one, finish the job. Sir, please finish the job. And I’ll leave you at that. 

UPDATE: 5:40 PM EST –

“We’re crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force,” Trump told the Republican House leaders.

He also extolled the virtues of the B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, saying “Israel would have been wiped out” without them.

Australia will deploy a surveillance aircraft and supporting ADF personnel to the Middle East for at least a month, as well as provide air-to-air missiles to the United Arab Emirates, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

Albanese said an E-7 Wedgetail radar jet would help provide long range reconnaissance capability to help “secure the airspace above the Gulf.”

“The Wedgetail and supporting Australian Defence Force personnel will be deployed for an initial four weeks in support of the collective self defence of Gulf nations. Additionally, in response to a request, my government intends to provide advanced, medium range air to air missiles to the United Arab Emirates,” he explained.

CENTCOM released its latest operational update. So far, more than 5,000 targets have been hit, including 50 Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed, the command stated.

UPDATE: 4:58 PM EST –

Speaking to Republican leaders today, Trump called Epic Fury “a short-term excursion.”

“We’re making America great again,” the president proclaimed. “We’re doing it much faster than we thought, and it’s better, stronger. Our country is doing really well, at a level that nobody thought. We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some people. And I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short term excursion. How good is our military? In my first term, we rebuilt our military, and I didn’t know I’d be using it so much in the second term. But we have a military like no other as not even close.”

With Trump hinting that the war could soon be over, Israeli officials are racing to hit as many targets as possible, I24 News Diplomatic Correspondent Guy Azriel stated on X.

The Lebanese government “proposed direct negotiations with Israel — through the Trump administration — aimed at ending the war and reaching a peace agreement,” Axios reported, citing five sources with knowledge of the matter.

If the war ended today, it would take two weeks to restore Persian Gulf shipping, and another two months to get oil production back to normal levels, The Wall Street Journal reported.

If the war ended today with Iran’s complete and total surrender, Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic would take two weeks to return to normal and Gulf oil production two months to get back to pre-war levels. And that’s optimistic. https://t.co/o3CKt61EZn

— Michael Amon (@michaelkamon) March 9, 2026

Iran says it is prepared to form a joint team with Turkey to investigate “allegations” of Iranian missile attacks on Turkey.

IRAN’S PRESIDENT SAYS DURING PHONE CALL WITH TURKEY’S ERDOGAN THAT IRAN IS PREPARED TO FORM JOINT TEAM TO INVESTIGATE “ALLEGATIONS” OF IRANIAN MISSILE ATTACKS ON TURKEY – IRANIAN STATE MEDIA

— Phil Stewart (@phildstewart) March 9, 2026

The White House posted a video on X showing what appears to be targets hit by F-22 Raptor stealth fighters. The video opens up with the aircraft flying, followed by several targets hit. The White House titled the post “If you don’t know, now you know.”

UPDATE: 4:17 PM EST –

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump discussed the Iran war and Ukraine conflict during a “frank and constructive” telephone call today, the Kremlin said.

The one-hour call, the first since December, was sought by Washington, Putin’s diplomatic advisor Yuri Ushakov claimed, according to Russian media.

“The accent was placed on the situation surrounding the conflict with Iran and the bilateral negotiations underway with the representatives of the United States on settling the Ukrainian question,” Ushakov proclaimed.

טראמפ שוחח עם פוטין על המלחמה באיראן, כך נמסר מהקרמלין

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) March 9, 2026

The U.S. has lost two more MQ-9 Reaper drones, bringing the total to 11 so far during Epic Fury, CBS News reported.

The U.S. military has lost two more MQ-9 Reaper drones during Operation Epic Fury in Iran, bringing the total lost to 11 drones.

The 11 drones lost are worth over $330 million in total.

Source: CBS News pic.twitter.com/ptyp7sVJNT

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) bombed six Iranian military air bases during a wave of strikes in Iran last night, according to the IDF.

The Israeli Air Force bombed six Iranian military airbases during a wave of strikes in Iran last night, the IDF says.

Some of the airports were previously targeted by the IAF amid the war.

As part of the strikes, the military says it destroyed numerous aircraft, including… pic.twitter.com/oKHD5P9KrA

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

IRGC Gen. Ebrahim Jabbari said Iran is ready for 10 years of war with America and that its “weapons stockpiles are full and the production of missiles and drones continues.”

⚡️BREAKING

IRGC GENERAL JABBARI:

We are ready for 10 years of war with the Americans

Our weapons stockpiles are full, and the production of missiles and drones continues pic.twitter.com/MnNozB6mDq

— Iran Observer (@IranObserver0) March 9, 2026

UPDATE: 3:41 PM EST –

In a phone interview with CBS News senior White House correspondent Weijia Jiang, Trump said the war could be over soon.

“I think the war is very complete, pretty much,” Trump told the network, according to a post on X. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.”

The U.S. is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame, the president added.

NEW—In a phone interview, President Trump told me the war could be over soon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” He added that the U.S. is “very far” ahead of his initial 4-5 week estimated time frame.

— Weijia Jiang (@weijia) March 9, 2026

Still, the Department of War stated on X that “We Have Only Just Begun To Fight.”

During a broadcast, Fox News caught Israeli interceptors firing at missiles launched toward Tel Aviv.

Fox cameras capture Israeli interceptor missiles neutralizing incoming threats in the sky over Tel Aviv, followed by a wave of additional launches, as Israel’s air defense system responds to enemy fire. @TreyYingst pic.twitter.com/jJi2ZxtUFt

— Fox News (@FoxNews) March 9, 2026

Hezbollah has initiated “preliminary feelers to start negotiations for a ceasefire,” Israel’s N12 News reported on X. “Discussions are underway in Israel on the matter, with the key question being whether to launch a broad operation to eliminate the organization or to achieve a strategic gain in the form of severing the connection between Iran and the Lebanese terror group, which Iran has financed at a rate of one billion dollars per year.”

Exclusive report:
Hezbollah has initiated preliminary feelers to start negotiations for a ceasefire. Discussions are underway in Israel on the matter, with the key question being whether to launch a broad operation to eliminate the organization or to achieve a strategic gain in…

— Amit Segal (@AmitSegal) March 9, 2026

Pilots participating in long missions over Iran as part of Operation Roaring Lion “have admitted to using stimulant pills to maintain concentration,” The Jerusalem Post reported. This is leading doctors “to warn against the phenomenon spreading from the tightly controlled system in the IDF to the general public, where it could end in cardiac arrhythmias and seizures.”

Doctors warn against civilians using stimulant pills after IDF pilots admit to taking them during long missions over Iran. https://t.co/drQILizjnk

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 8, 2026

More video is emerging of the remnants of Tomahawk Land Attack Cruise Missiles (TLAMs) found in Iran.

The French Embassy shared video of President Emmanuel Macron aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle in the Mediterranean.

From 🇫🇷 President Emmanuel Macron, on board the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean. pic.twitter.com/E5vWSOoH0c

— Embassy of France in the U.S. (@franceintheus) March 9, 2026

The U.K. MoD provided its latest assessment of operations in the Middle East.

The U.K. stated that its military aircraft “operated over the UAE alongside our Emirati hosts.”

UPDATE: 2:59 PM EST –

Trump has told aides “he would back the killing of new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei if he proves unwilling to cede to U.S. demands, such as ending Iran’s nuclear development,” The Wall Street Journal reported, citing current and former U.S. officials.

Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in an airstrike, according to Iranian TV.

“The anchors read reports describing him as ‘janbaz,’ or wounded by the enemy, in the ‘Ramadan War,’ which is how media in Iran refer to the current conflict,” according to the Times of Israel.

The reports do not elaborate on Khamenei’s condition or say how or when he was wounded.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out the goals of Epic Fury.

SECRETARY RUBIO: The goals of the mission against the Iranian regime are clear:
– Destroy their ability to launch missiles
– Destroy factories making these missiles
– Destroy their navy pic.twitter.com/KPUpMGNtDf

— Department of State (@StateDept) March 9, 2026

Israeli strikes on Iran have killed more than 1,900 Iranian commanders and troops, IDF spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin told the media.

More than 1,900 Iranian soldiers and commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes in Iran, IDF Spokesman Brig. Gen. Effie Defrin says in a press statement.

He says thousands more have been wounded.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

German Chancellor Fredrich Merz continues to back the strikes against Iran.

German Chancellor Merz on Iran:

Iran is the center of international terrorism, and this center must be shut down.

The Americans and Israelis are doing that in their own way. pic.twitter.com/GrW5Xianjv

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) March 9, 2026

In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced a 5:30 p.m. address to the nation. The topic is not immediately known.

Beachgoers in the UAE witnessed a wild scene of an Iranian Shahed-136 drone being chased down at a low level by an Emirate Air Force F-16E, which fired at least one munition at the drone.

1:44 PM EST –

The U.S. Embassy in Kurait is being evacuated as the result of Iranian attacks on that country.

The American Embassy is being evacuated in Riyadh because of sustained attacks by Iran against the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

It is my understanding the Kingdom refuses to use their capable military as a part of an effort to end the barbaric and terrorist Iranian regime who has…

— Lindsey Graham (@LindseyGrahamSC) March 9, 2026

CENTCOM highlighted the use of the Army High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) attacks on Iran. The post, on X, includes an image of a HIMARS firing an Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) warhead.

U.S. Army High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) provide unrivaled deep-strike capability in combat against the Iranian regime. pic.twitter.com/Onsp1FUrz4

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 9, 2026

CBS News posted video of the remnants of an Iranian ballistic missile with a cluster munition warhead that landed in Tel Aviv.

IRANIAN MISSILE UP CLOSE: Standing beside the fuel tank of an Iranian missile that landed in Tel Aviv, Israel, CBS News’ @CBSMATTGUTMAN shows us the sophistication and sheer size of the missiles Iran has been firing at Israel and the Gulf states. Gutman explains how these sorts… pic.twitter.com/88v7zV1cJA

— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 9, 2026

High-ranking Iranian official Ali Larijani said on X that “It is unlikely that any security will be achieved in the Strait of Hormuz amid the fires of the war ignited by the United States and Israel in the region, especially if that is by the design of parties that were not far removed from supporting this war and contributing to its fanning.”

من المستبعد أن يتحقق أيُّ أمنٍ في مضيق هرمز في ظلِّ نيران الحرب التي أشعلتها الولايات المتحدة وإسرائيل في المنطقة، ولا سيّما إذا كان ذلك بتصميم أطرافٍ لم تكن بعيدةً عن دعم هذه الحرب والإسهام في تأجيجها. https://t.co/Fn2tcbLhDT

— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 9, 2026

Watching oil prices spike during Epic Fury, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly considering trying to export oil to Europe. Crude oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel could be very beneficial for the Russian economy, which relies heavily on energy exports.

Putin says Russia should take advantage of the sky-high oil prices after US-Israeli attacks on Iran.

Russia should redirect supplies to Europe elsewhere, he adds. “If we shift our focus right now to the markets that need more supplies, we might get a foothold there.” pic.twitter.com/FZAHksP2p6

— max seddon (@maxseddon) March 9, 2026

The planes that entered Iran at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion “did so at great risk and with partially reestablished air defenses, a senior Israel Air Force officer told Israeli media on Monday.

“The planes that entered Iran first were at very high risk,” the officer explained. “I was there. I led the people from the air, the pilots took this risk out of a deep understanding that we would be able to attack a surface-to-surface missile squadron that could hit Israel and its citizens.”

The planes that entered Iran at the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion did so at great risk and with partially reestablished air defenses, a senior Israel Air Force officer said.https://t.co/QwoQSm2gNS

— The Jerusalem Post (@Jerusalem_Post) March 9, 2026

Hezbollah reportedly launched a new wave of missiles deep into Israel and hit a satellite communications site.

The Lebanese group “claims to have targeted the IDF Home Front Command headquarters in Ramle, known as Rehavam Base, as well as a ‘satellite communications station’ in Haela Valley near Beit Shemesh, in its missile attack on central Israel this afternoon,” the Times of Israel reported. “The missile fire marks the deepest attack in Israel carried out by Hezbollah since hostilities intensified last week.”

The IDF only acknowledged that missiles were fired from Lebanon.

“Following the sirens that sounded in several areas in Israel, several projectiles that crossed from Lebanon into Israeli territory were identified,” the IDF stated. “The Israeli Air Force intercepted several launches and several additional launches fell in an open area. Additionally, a report was received regarding an impact in central Israel.”

💢 NEW: Hezbollah missiles strike deep inside Israel, hit satellite communications site

Hezbollah launched a barrage of long-range missiles that struck multiple locations in Israel, including a direct hit on military SATCOM dishes at the SES Satellite Station in the Ha’Ela… pic.twitter.com/H4MhdydFGU

— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) March 9, 2026

A few senior officials in Israel “are starting to voice concern about the escalating, open-ended attack on Iran — and suggesting possible exit ramps that might halt the war before it further damages the region and the global economy,” David Ignatius opined in The Washington Post.

“Talk of an endgame is early, and a decision about whether to stop the attacks rests largely with President Donald Trump, who continues to seek all-out victory,” he wrote. “But in a telephone conversation Sunday, a senior Israeli official familiar with the planning and strategy for the Iran war discussed alternatives to Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.” The official requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the Iran situation.”

NEW: Israeli officials “growing concerned” about escalating war with Iran and now seeking possible exit ramps according to the Washington Post.

— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) March 9, 2026

Reports are emerging that despite Iranian claims that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz, at least one ship has passed through by turning off its transponders. There are questions about whether Iran still has the sensor capability to track ships given constant U.S. and Israeli attacks.

Ships are reportedly crossing the strait of Hormuz. They are reportedly turning off their transponders before passing through, and switch them back on afterward.

pic.twitter.com/hbq9gsRvyk

— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) March 9, 2026

1:02 PM EST –

The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country, ABC News reported, citing a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies.

The alert cites “preliminary signals analysis” of a transmission “likely of Iranian origin” that was relayed across multiple countries shortly after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was killed in a U.S.-Israeli attack on Feb. 28.

NEW: The U.S. has intercepted encrypted communications believed to have originated in Iran that may serve as “an operational trigger” for “sleeper assets” outside the country, according to a federal government alert sent to law enforcement agencies. https://t.co/3LK66mTlJG

— ABC News (@ABC) March 9, 2026

CBS News broke down targets hit across the Middle East since Epic Fury was launched.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted a list of oil prices that have spiked since the launch of what he calls “Operation Epic Mistake.”

“…oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing,” Araghchi stated on X. “We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared.”

It should be noted that prices are volatile and subject to frequent change.

9 days into Operation Epic Mistake, oil prices have doubled while all commodities are skyrocketing. We know the U.S. is plotting against our oil and nuclear sites in hopes of containing huge inflationary shock. Iran is fully prepared.

And we, too, have many surprises in store. pic.twitter.com/UNQu0fVZE2

— Seyed Abbas Araghchi (@araghchi) March 9, 2026

“I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore,” Kamal Kharazi, Foreign Policy Advisor to the office of the Supreme Leader, told CNN in an exclusive interview in Tehran. He also said he believes the regime can continue with the war for a long time.

“I don’t see any room for diplomacy anymore,” Kamal Kharazi, Foreign Policy Advisor to the office of the Supreme Leader, tells @fpleitgenCNN in an exclusive interview in Tehran.

He also said he believes the regime can continue with the war for a long time. pic.twitter.com/tQetUT8lkW

— CNN International PR (@cnnipr) March 9, 2026

The IDF posted images it said were from the aftermath of an Iranian cluster munition attack on the city of Rishon Lezion.

Pictured is the Iranian terror regime’s strategy: targeting civilians.

Last night, the Iranian regime fired a cluster bomb at the Israeli city of Rishon Lezion—damaging multiple areas including a children’s playground. This is what we’re operating against. pic.twitter.com/YQZHCeHBTd

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 9, 2026

Iranian Gen. Majid Mousavi, head of the IRGC Aerospace Force, claimed his nation has a new tactic for launching missiles.

Only those with warheads over one ton will be fired, and the frequency will increase, Mousavi posited.

IRGC Aerospace Commander, General Mousavi, announced Iran’s new war tactic:

From now on, missiles with warheads lighter than one ton will not be launched.

The frequency and scope of the launches will increase, and their range will become wider. pic.twitter.com/LyrZveSTL8

— Press TV 🔻 (@PressTV) March 9, 2026

UPDATE:12:28 PM EST –

The Trump administration has discussed seizing Kharg Island, a strategic terminal responsible for roughly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports, according to Axios.

Axios reports that the Trump administration is discussing seizing Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. pic.twitter.com/4JBtB14RLY

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) March 8, 2026

Trump took to his Truth Social platform to say that short-term oil price hikes are worth the long-term removal of the Iranian nuclear threat.

U.S. officials were reportedly surprised by Iran’s sustained response to Epic Fury.

NEW: US officials surprised by Iranian military response, did not expect retaliatory strikes to be extensive or sustained, planned for operations in Iran to go similarly to Venezuela according to NYT.

— Dominic Michael Tripi (@DMichaelTripi) March 9, 2026

Gulf states have been surprised that Iran has carried out widespread attacks across the region.

“We surely didn’t think Iran would actually go after the entire Gulf and throw our ties with it out of the window,” a senior Saudi official says – WSJ

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) March 8, 2026

Iran’s Isfahan Optics plants was reportedly leveled by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes this morning.

American allies “are watching in disbelief as the Pentagon reroutes weapon shipments to aid the Iran war, angry and scared that arms the U.S. demanded they buy will never reach them,” Politico reported.

European nations that have struggled to rebuild arsenals after sending weapons to Ukraine “fear they won’t be able to ward off a Russian attack,” the outlet added. “Asian allies, startled by America’s rate of fire, question whether it could embolden China and North Korea. And even in the Middle East, countries aren’t clear if they will get air defenses from the U.S. for future priorities.”

NEW: U.S. allies are watching in disbelief as DOD reroutes weapons to aid the Iran war, worried long-promised American arms will never come.

“The munitions that have been and will be fired are the ones that everybody needs,” said one European official.https://t.co/7EGts4hHMk

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) March 7, 2026

U.S. military transport planes have flown out of South Korea in recent days, after Seoul confirmed it was discussing the possible redeployment of American military assets as the Iran conflict escalates, Bloomberg News reported, citing flight tracking data.

“Data from the Flightradar24 website indicated that US military transport planes, including C-17 and C-5, flew out of South Korea’s Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, one as recently as Saturday,” the news outlet stated. “It wasn’t immediately clear what the aircraft were carrying.”

US military transport planes have flown out of South Korea, after Seoul confirmed it was discussing the possible redeployment of American military assets https://t.co/6nTQCsXpw8

— Bloomberg (@business) March 9, 2026

France will deploy an aircraft carrier, two helicopter carriers and three other warships for an international defensive naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz after the most intense part of Epic Fury subsides, French President Emmanuel Macron announced.

French president Macron announced plans with international partners for a defensive naval mission to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and escort vessels once the most intense stage of the Middle East conflict subsides.
France to deploy 8 warships, an aircraft carrier and 2 helicopter… pic.twitter.com/7VN9Hmmb7D

— Tom Antonov (@Tom_Antonov) March 9, 2026

The UAE MoD said Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones overnight, adding that all but one were intercepted, Fox News reported on X. That represents a sharp decline of drone attacks on the Gulf nation, which had been averaging 124 a day over the past week.

UAE says Iran launched 15 ballistic missiles and 18 drones overnight: MoD. All but one drone successfully intercepted.

Sharp decline in Iranian drone attacks on UAE, which had been averaging 124 per day over the past week.

— Lucas Tomlinson (@LucasFoxNews) March 9, 2026

UPDATE: 12PM EST—

U.S. Central Command has previously released a video confirming the employment of ground-launched Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles as part of the strikes on Iran. Now, there appears to be evidence that at least some of the missiles are being fired from Kuwait. We have seen another video showing a HIMARS launcher fire from a beach in Bahrain, as well.

Empty ATACMS missile container found in the deserts of Kuwait, suggesting the U.S. may be launching HIMARS strikes on Iran from Kuwaiti territory.

ATACMS is a U.S. short-range tactical ballistic missile launched from HIMARS, capable of striking targets up to ~300 km. pic.twitter.com/aVJvdAv1w6

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Among the targets of recent U.S. strikes are what is left of the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy. There have been more attacks against Iranian vessels in coastal waters, one of them being struck while anchored off the coast of Bandar Lengeh earlier today. The warship in question has been widely identified as a Shahid Soleimani class missile corvette. One of these unusual catamaran vessels had been sunk in an earlier U.S. strike, as you can read about here.

Iran has named its new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is succeeding his father, Ali Khamenei, after he was killed on February 28, as part of a series of Israeli airstrikes around Tehran aimed at high-ranking Iranian officials. While the Iranian regime remains under the highest level of pressure from continued U.S. and Israeli attacks, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei represents continuity for the regime and signals that hardliners remain in charge — for now.

Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei
• More hardline than father
• He’s the IRGC candidate
• Relatively young: 56
• Avoids public
• Trusted by father, clerics
• Was in military during Iraq-Iran war
• His wife, Zahra, killed in Israeli airstrike w his father

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) March 8, 2026

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the international leaders to congratulate Mojtaba Khamenei on his appointment.

✉️ President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory message to the newly elected Supreme Leader of Iran – Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei.

💬 I am confident that you will unite the Iranian people in the face of the severe trials ahead.https://t.co/JOYAAWN2LE pic.twitter.com/jYd80CMb0m

— MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) March 9, 2026

The Israeli military said today that it had begun a new wave of attacks against targets in Tehran, Isfahan, and elsewhere in central and southern Iran.

The Israeli Air Force has launched a new wave of “extensive” airstrikes in Tehran, Isfahan, and in southern Iran, the IDF announces.

The IDF says the strikes are targeting Iranian regime infrastructure.

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

The IDF says it struck several military bases of Iran’s Basij paramilitary force and internal security forces in the city of Isfahan, along with missile sites in other areas of the country.

During the wave of strikes in Isfahan, the IDF says it hit the headquarters of Iran’s… pic.twitter.com/q3PmMWFlvx

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

✈️ The IAF completed a wave of strikes, in which numerous munitions were dropped on 400+ military infrastructure targets including ballistic missile launchers & additional weapons production sites.

Since the beginning of Operation Roaring Lion, the IAF carried out ~190 strike… pic.twitter.com/3c85CUrDJg

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 8, 2026

It also said that it struck targets associated with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militant group in Beirut.

Five top commanders in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed in an Israeli Navy strike targeting a hotel room in Beirut overnight, the IDF announces.

According to the military, the commanders who were killed “while hiding in a civilian hotel” served in the IRGC… https://t.co/O8jOM0t453

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 8, 2026

According to Hezbollah, its fighters are meanwhile engaged with Israeli forces who entered eastern Lebanon via helicopter. Hezbollah said it detected “the infiltration of approximately 15 Israeli enemy helicopters” from the Syrian side of the border into Lebanon. The Iran-backed militant group said in a statement that its fighters “engaged the helicopters and the infiltrating force with appropriate weapons” and that the confrontation was ongoing.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency described “fierce clashes … towards the outskirts of the town of Nabi Sheet to repel Israeli forces that carried out a landing by helicopters” in the area. Two Hezbollah officials told AFP that an Israeli helicopter was downed, but this has not been independently verified.

⭕️IDF troops began a targeted and limited raid in an area in southern Lebanon to locate and eliminate terrorists and dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure.

Prior to the entry of ground forces, numerous terror targets were struck from the air and ground.

This operation aims to…

— Israel Defense Forces (@IDF) March 9, 2026

A previous Israeli commando raid was launched into Lebanon overnight on Friday. Among its aims was the recovery of the remains of Ron Arad, an Israeli airman missing since 1986. The fighting left three Lebanese soldiers and 41 residents of the Bekaa Valley dead, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

The Israeli military confirmed that two of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) today issued a new warning in Lebanon, calling for residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate the area. An IDF spokesman said that the Israeli military will act “forcefully” against terrorist infrastructure in “the coming hours.”

The IDF says it intercepted dozens of Hezbollah drones and struck dozens of the terror group’s rocket and missile launchers in southern Lebanon in recent days.

It publishes footage showing the interceptions of Hezbollah drones by a fighter jet, a helicopter, and a ground-based… pic.twitter.com/K1uuVQxbBT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

The IDF also said it conducted targeted strikes against the Iranian Lebanon Corps in Beirut over the weekend.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) has accused Israel of unlawfully using white phosphorus munitions in the town of Yohmor in southern Lebanon. HRW verified and geolocated various images that confirmed the airburst use of white phosphorus munitions over a residential part of the town last week.

“The Israeli military’s unlawful use of white phosphorus over residential areas is extremely alarming and will have dire consequences for civilians,” Ramzi Kaiss, Lebanon researcher at Human Rights Watch, said in a statement.

White phosphorus is not a chemical weapon, as sometimes described, since it is primarily an incendiary weapon, although it’s also regularly used for making smokescreens and for target marking. Burning at around 1,500 degrees Fahrenheit, white phosphorus can obviously inflict terrible injuries, and its use in densely populated areas violates international law.

As we discussed last week, Israel may be using a version of the Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) that includes white phosphorus in its warhead. However, this particular weapon was designed to attack chemical and biological weapon stockpiles.

Iran and its proxies launched more attacks across the region over the weekend and into Monday.

Gulf nations reported missile and drone attacks Sunday, while Iran vowed to press on with strikes against neighbouring countries as the regional war enters its second weekhttps://t.co/S0cZrTC5I0

🎥 Aftermath of strike on tower in Kuwait City pic.twitter.com/cfoNWrUIAr

— AFP News Agency (@AFP) March 8, 2026

There are reports that strikes targeted a U.S. diplomatic facility near Baghdad’s international airport but were apparently intercepted.

Another successful drone interception reportedly occurred east of Saudi Arabia’s northern Al-Jawf region. The Saudi Ministry of Defense has released footage showing Iranian drones being taken out by Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) F-15 and Typhoon fighters. The RSAF has plenty of practice in this, having targeted drones launched by the Houthis in Yemen for many years.

However, Iran was more successful in its targeting of the Bapco (Bahrain Petroleum Company) oil refinery — the only one in Bahrain.

Videos show smoke rising from the refinery, where operators declared a state of emergency.

Footage shows massive fires raging at Bahrain’s only oil refinery after it was struck by an Iranian Shahed-136 one-way-attack (OWA) drones.

Following the strike, Bapco Energies, Bahrain’s state-owned oil company, declared force majeure on its deliveries later in the day, citing… pic.twitter.com/cVUKY3AbVy

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 9, 2026

A statement from the company said it “hereby serves notice of force majeure on its group operations which have been affected by the ongoing regional conflict in the Middle East and the recent attack on its refinery complex.”

The Bahrain Ministry of Interior earlier today said that the fire at the refinery had been brought under control, with no casualties reported.

Civil Defence: The fire that broke out in a facility in the Ma’ameer area, as a result of Iranian aggression, has been brought under control. No injuries or loss of life were reported. pic.twitter.com/9T6hh7Qny9

— Ministry of Interior (@moi_bahrain) March 9, 2026

Earlier today, Bahrain said an overnight Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra injured 32 people.

At least 32 Bahrainis were injured in an Iranian drone attack on the island of Sitra including four who were in critical condition, Bahrain’s state news agency said.

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 9, 2026

Other countries in the region have also reported being targeted by more retaliatory Iranian strikes.

In central Israel, a man was killed, and several more were injured in an airstrike, according to local emergency services. It is unclear who launched the attack, but several people were reportedly injured as they made their way to a shelter.

Further to the scene at a construction site in central Israel, MDA EMTs and paramedics pronounced the death of a man, approximately 40 years old, and evacuated to Sheba Tel Hashomer Hospital a man, approximately 40 years old, in serious and unstable condition. pic.twitter.com/cmKg8rkk4u

— Magen David Adom (@Mdais) March 9, 2026

Iran on Monday fired its first barrage of missiles toward Israel after the appointment of Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei as the Islamic Republic’s new supreme leader – State media pic.twitter.com/KSUWCDMFRY

— Rudaw English (@RudawEnglish) March 9, 2026

The recent Iranian missile strikes on Israel reportedly also involved the use of warheads carrying cluster munitions.

From the scenes of some of the cluster munition impacts in central Israel following Iran’s latest ballistic missile attack. pic.twitter.com/Pqp9HQCJgs

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

Footage shows two of the Iranian cluster bomb munitions’ impacts in central Israel during the ballistic missile attack this morning.

A total of six cluster munition impact sites were reported across central Israel, killing one and seriously injuring two others. pic.twitter.com/8QEXYcuQXT

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) March 9, 2026

In the United Arab Emirates, authorities reported two people injured in two separate locations in Abu Dhabi. Both are said to have been hit by debris from intercepted airstrikes.

تعاملت الجهات المختصة في إمارة أبوظبي مع حادثين نتيجة سقوط شظايا على موقعين، عقب الاعتراض الناجح من قبل الدفاعات الجوية. أسفر الحادث الأول عن تعرض شخص من الجنسية الأردنية لإصابة بسيطة، وأسفر الحادث الثاني عن تعرض شخص من الجنسية المصرية لإصابة متوسطة.

ونهيب بالجمهور استقاء…

— مكتب أبوظبي الإعلامي (@ADMediaOffice) March 9, 2026

Meanwhile, the fallout from an attack last week on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone in the UAE is threatening to further disrupt the flow of oil out of the region.

This is significant to shipping as Fujairiah is not just a loading port but a MAJOR bunkering port for ships.

Without it, this will force refueling around the world where stocks are limited and more expensive. https://t.co/s9t68n7MPU

— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 9, 2026

The United Arab Emirates is now using AH-64 Apache attack helicopters in a counter-drone role. The footage below shows Apaches from the UAE Joint Aviation Command — reportedly the latest AH-64E versions, rather than the earlier AH-64Ds — using their 30mm guns to bring down Iranian UAVs. While the U.S. Army and other operators using AH-64s to swat down lower-end long-endurance drones might be relatively new, it’s worth noting that Israel has been using the Apache in an air defense role for this purpose for many years. 

The UAE military is using Apache attack helicopters to shoot down Shahed drones over water. This will save a significant number of expensive interceptors as these are practically free kills – just using a few 30mm rounds. A wise evolution of the country’s defensive strategy. https://t.co/7GMkLcssVS

— Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib (@afalkhatib) March 8, 2026

AFP reports several explosions heard today in the Qatari capital of Doha.

Qatar’s defense ministry said that its forces had intercepted and destroyed two drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field in the southeast of the country. These were just a fraction of a much larger barrage of ballistic missiles and drones sent toward Qatar, according to the defense ministry.

UAE air defences intercept 12 ballistic missiles, 17 UAVs.

UAE air defences on Monday detected 15 ballistic missiles, of which 12 were destroyed, while 3 missiles fell into the sea. A total of 18 UAVs were also detected, with 17 intercepted, while 1 fell within the country’s… pic.twitter.com/7l2tjyclK5

— وزارة الدفاع |MOD UAE (@modgovae) March 9, 2026

In Kuwait, the defense ministry reported that air defenses were working to intercept a missile and drone attack on Monday.

بيان رقم (22)

صادر عن المتحدث الرسمي لوزارة الدفاع
العقيد الركن سعود عبدالعزيز العطوان

تصدّت القوات المسلحة الكويتية منذ فجر اليوم الأحد الموافق 8 مارس 2026 لموجةٍ من الأهداف الجوية المعادية التي اخترقت أجواء البلاد.

حيث رصدت منظومات الدفاع الجوي عدد (7) صواريخ باليستية… pic.twitter.com/tMincF3hON

— KUWAIT ARMY – الجيش الكويتي (@KuwaitArmyGHQ) March 8, 2026

Footage purportedly showing a burning high-rise building in Kuwait after it was struck by an Iranian drone over the weekend.

🇰🇼🇮🇷 A massive fire has engulfed a high-rise building in Kuwait after it was struck by an Iranian drone.

The building is located at 29°21’46.61″N, 47°59’01.49″E. pic.twitter.com/OrpzrLnE0Y

— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) March 8, 2026

Cyprus, which has also been on the receiving end of drone strikes, received six Turkish Air Force F-16 fighters today. The jets were deployed to the breakaway Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to bolster local defenses for the Turkish Cypriot state.

6 x Turkish F-16 fighter jets deployed to Northern Cyprus, conducting a show-of-force flight after arriving in the region.

Source: Kıbrıs Postası, Haber Kıbrıs pic.twitter.com/xYp4stP4Uy

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

Turkey has also reportedly come under attack from at least one Iranian ballistic missile, which the local defense ministry said was brought down by “NATO air and missile defense assets” based in the eastern Mediterranean.

Turkish MoD warns Iran:

Türkiye places great importance on good neighborly relations and regional stability.

However, we reiterate that any threat directed at our territory or airspace will be met with all necessary measures, taken decisively and without hesitation.

We… https://t.co/NXEdZnahB7

— Clash Report (@clashreport) March 9, 2026

NATO has again intercepted a missile heading to Türkiye. NATO stands firm in its readiness to defend all Allies against any threat

— NATO Spokesperson (@NATOpress) March 9, 2026

In a statement provided to TWZ, a NATO spokesperson added:

“In less than 10 minutes, NATO service members identified a threat to Allies, a ballistic missile, confirmed its trajectory, alerted land- and sea-based missile defence systems, and launched an interceptor to defeat the threat and protect our territory and its people.”

The U.S. military has confirmed the death of a seventh American soldier due to injuries sustained during Iran’s initial counterattack. The Department of War said that Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, of Glendale, Kentucky, died of his wounds yesterday. He had come under enemy attack on March 1, 2026, at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, where he served with the 1st Space Battalion, 1st Space Brigade.

CENTCOM Update

TAMPA, Fla. – Last night, a U.S. service member passed away from injuries received during the Iranian regime’s initial attacks across the Middle East. The service member was seriously wounded at the scene of an attack on U.S. troops in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 8, 2026

However, unverified reports of the death of an eighth U.S. service member during the current campaign have proven to be erroneous.

This is not accurate. The Marine who is referenced here died before the U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran started and from non combat injuries, an official told me. His remains were not flown into Dover until March 4. https://t.co/WWM1jiFOl3

— Idrees Ali (@idreesali114) March 8, 2026

According to a report from Axios, U.S. President Donald Trump, together with envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, plans to travel to Israel tomorrow for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

However, reports from Israel suggest that the visit has been postponed.

Regardless, Trump has said that the end of the war will be a “mutual” decision to be made with Netanyahu, the Times of Israel reported.

“I think it’s mutual…a little bit. We’ve been talking. I’ll make a decision at the right time, but everything’s going to be taken into account,” Trump said.

In a telephone interview with the Times of Israel on Sunday, Trump said that Iran would have destroyed Israel if it weren’t for his and Netanyahu’s actions.

“Iran was going to destroy Israel and everything else around it…We’ve worked together. We’ve destroyed a country that wanted to destroy Israel,” the U.S. president said.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

US-Israeli attacks on Iran continue as Iranians rally in support of new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.