Interest rates

Published on
11/09/2026 – 15:25 GMT+2

The last major data point before the Fed meets has arrived, and it arrived while Americans were paying record prices at the pump.

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The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday afternoon that the annual rate held steady, with core inflation, which strips out food and energy, easing to 2.4% from 2.5%.

Every figure matched the consensus of economists and the monthly number is where the pressure shows.

Prices rose 0.4% in August against 0.1% in July, a fourfold acceleration and the fastest pace in three months. The annual rate stayed flat only because it is measured against the strong summer of 2025.

What it means for the Fed meeting

Markets had largely made up their minds before the figures landed.

CME’s FedWatch tool put the probability of a quarter-point increase at the 16 September meeting at 67.4%, up sharply from around 40% before Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole address in late August.

Following the inflation data release, those odds moved to 91.6%.

Warsh’s first keynote as chair was the turning point as he argued the American economy had strengthened rather than weakened, that the labour market was consistent with full employment, and that he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

On inflation Warsh was blunt by stating that “we must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

By that test, Friday’s numbers are ambiguous.

Core inflation has now fallen for a second month and sits within half a point of the 2% target, which is underlying inflation moving in the right direction. The monthly acceleration points the other way.

Warsh also refused to say what would trigger a move, rejecting forward guidance as a practice that “has overstayed its welcome”. The Fed has held its benchmark rate at 3.50% to 3.75% since December, though three regional presidents dissented in July in favour of an increase, the most in one direction since 2016.

A fuel shock with no obvious end

The pressure is coming from energy, and it is intensifying.

US crude futures topped $100 a barrel this week as fighting between American and Iranian forces escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington striking five Iranian tankers after attempted missile attacks on a US Navy warship.

Diesel is where it bites hardest.

The US national average crossed $6 a gallon on Friday for the first time in the country’s history, at least in nominal terms, according to the American Automobile Association, and leaving truckers and farmers paying around 63% more than a year ago.

In California the average is close to $8. As for petrol, it is averaging $4.22 nationwide, against $2.98 before the war began.

Ukraine’s strikes on Russian refineries prompted Moscow to ban diesel exports, removing roughly 800,000 barrels a day, while disruption around Hormuz has cost another 1.2 million.

Refineries representing about 5 million barrels a day of capacity have been shut by the two wars, and close to 8% of global diesel supply is currently disrupted.

Some retailers have already added delivery surcharges, and the effect on grocery prices tends to arrive with a lag, which means the energy shock in Friday’s numbers may not yet be the whole of it.

Frankfurt has tightened again.

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The European Central Bank’s governing council lifted the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.5% on Thursday. It is the second hike since 11 June, when the ECB moved for the first time in three years.

The ECB sets monetary policy for the eurozone through three key interest rates, with the deposit facility rate serving as its main policy benchmark.

The main refinancing rate was lifted to 2.65% and the marginal lending facility to 2.9%.

In its statement, the central bank noted that “the conflict in the Middle East continues to generate inflation pressures, and inflation is set to remain well above target for an extended period,” while ensuring that “with today’s decision, the Governing Council remains well positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the conflict.”

The ECB staff projections continue to estimate that headline inflation will average 3% this year. However, it has revised up the expectations for 2027 and 2028 to 2.5% and 2.1% respectively, compared with June.

An energy problem, not a demand problem

The decision follows an August inflation reading of 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July and the highest since September 2023.

Energy costs did nearly all the work, with energy inflation jumping to 14.3% from 10.3%, as fighting around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude supply constrained. The problem persists as Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel again on Wednesday due to renewed exchanges of fire between the US and Iran.

Underneath, the picture is calmer.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, actually fell to 2.4% from 2.5% in August, while services inflation, the component most sensitive to wages, dropped to 3% from 3.3%. There is still little sign that expensive energy is spreading into the rest of the economy.

That distinction has been central to the ECB’s own thinking.

In a paper published earlier this month, its economists found that adverse energy supply factors accounted for around 90% of the rise in energy inflation between January and May of this year.

“This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles,” the economists wrote, contrasting it with the 2021-22 surge that prompted a far more aggressive response.

A single rate for very different economies

The eurozone inflation average conceals a wide spread.

August inflation ran at 4.5% in Spain, 2.9% in Germany and 2.7% in France, three economies facing the same energy shock with markedly different outcomes.

Growth complicates matters further.

The bloc has held up better than expected, but resilience is not overheating, and even at 2.5% the deposit rate remains within the range the ECB considers neutral. Going further would mean deciding that policy must actively restrain the economy.

Christine Lagarde had signalled this move in July, when the council held rates but instructed staff to model oil and gas scenarios ahead of September.

“The burden of proof is on data,” Lagarde said then, adding that “the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.”

Thursday’s decision comes alongside fresh staff projections, though their cut-off date falls roughly two weeks before the meeting, meaning neither the latest leg higher in oil nor the surge in European government bond yields to 15-year highs will be reflected.

Attention now turns to Frankfurt’s peers.

The Federal Reserve will announce on 16 September and the Bank of Japan on the 18, with both expected to consider hikes of their own.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England will decide on 17 September and is expected to hold rates as it currently maintains a much higher benchmark than the rest at 3.75%.

Frankfurt will almost certainly move on Thursday.

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Market odds put a quarter-point hike at close to certainty, which would lift the European Central Bank’s deposit rate from 2.25% to 2.5%.

What makes this a difficult call is not whether the ECB acts, but why, and whether the reasoning survives contact with the data.

The path here has been compressed as the ECB raised rates on 11 June for the first time in three years, lifting the deposit rate from 2% to 2.25% in response to the energy shock from the Iran war, and then held rates in July while Christine Lagarde pointed hawkishly towards September.

August’s inflation figures removed any remaining doubt with eurozone inflation hitting 3.3%, up from 2.9% in July and the highest since September 2023, as energy inflation surged to 14.3% from 10.3%.

The inflation is not spreading

Look beneath the headline inflation and the picture inverts.

Core inflation, which strips out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, actually fell to 2.4% from 2.5%. Services inflation, the component most closely tied to wages and domestic demand, dropped to 3% from 3.3%.

In other words, there is still little evidence that expensive energy is feeding through into everything else. That is what economists mean by “second-round effects”, and their absence is the strongest argument against tightening.

The ECB’s own research also supports the distinction.

In a paper published on Tuesday, ECB economists found that adverse energy supply factors, driven by geopolitical tensions, accounted for around 90% of the rise in energy inflation between January and May.

“This time the energy supply shock dominates, while demand and public policy stimulus have minor roles,” the economists wrote, adding that “these differences are key to explaining why monetary policy responses differ.”

The 2021-22 surge, by contrast, came from “a combination of large and unprecedented supply and demand-side factors,” which is why the ECB then “raised interest rates forcefully and persistently” rather than gradually.

The national spread across the EU further underlines how uneven this is.

August inflation ran at 4.5% in Spain, 2.9% in Germany and 2.7% in France, three economies facing the same energy shock with very different results, all governed by one interest rate.

Economic growth is the other complication.

The eurozone has proved more resilient than expected, which ING attributes partly to luck, partly to Asian competitors suffering more from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and partly to fiscal stimulus. However, resilience does not mean the growth could not, or should not, accelerate.

ING characterises Thursday’s expected move as “another insurance rate hike”, or “a dovish rate hike,” noting that even at 2.5% the deposit rate sits within the range the ECB itself considers neutral.

Going further would mean deciding restrictive policy is required, which would be a different judgement entirely.

Everyone is looking to hike at the same time

The ECB is not acting alone, and that matters for the euro.

The Federal Reserve meets on 15 and 16 September, with Chair Kevin Warsh having used his first Jackson Hole address to argue that financial conditions are not restrictive and underlying inflation has not improved.

Investors had put the odds of a US hike at roughly one in three before those remarks, but now price a 60% chance the Fed hikes the target range from 3.5%-3.75% to 3.75%-4%.

The Bank of Japan follows on 17 and 18 September, with markets pricing an 80% to 90% chance of a move to 1.25%.

On the other hand, the Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on 17 September as it currently maintains a much higher interest rate than the rest.

If the Fed were to hike while the ECB held, the dollar would strengthen against the euro and that would cut both ways for Frankfurt.

A weaker euro makes European exports more competitive, but it also makes imports dearer, and since oil and gas are priced in dollars, it would push up precisely the energy costs driving the inflation problem in the first place.

Overall, we can assume a September rate hike is a done deal for the ECB but we can also project that it won’t solve the central bank’s current dilemma of raising borrowing costs against an inflation it cannot reach, while withdrawing support an economy could still use.

Experts have given their take on where the Pound is

Experts have urged Brits to buy holiday cash now as the Pound is expected to weaken over this week’s market chaos with a warning that “it’ll hit wallets immediately”. Bond yields have risen sharply, increasing the cost of government borrowing and renewing concerns about whether Britain’s growing public-debt burden is sustainable.

Although higher yields can sometimes support a currency by offering investors better returns, Sterling has weakened as markets focus instead on inflation, rising debt costs and the Government’s limited financial room ahead of the Budget. The Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 3.75% this month, leaving it caught between supporting economic growth and preventing higher energy and import costs from fuelling another wave of inflation.

For households, a weaker Pound could mean more expensive holidays, fuel, food and other imported goods. Rising gilt yields can also push up swap rates, placing further pressure on fixed mortgage pricing just as many borrowers prepare to refinance.

Dave Huggett, founder of Lucid Foreign Exchange, said there was no need to be patient when buying your holiday cash.

He added: “Higher gilt yields and worries about debt sustainability tend to weigh on the Pound. Not always straight away and not always by much, but it’s one more thing dragging on sentiment. When investors get nervous about a country’s finances, they usually want more reward to hold that currency, or they just move their money elsewhere.

“So what do you do? Buy it all now, or hold in the hope of a recovery. The answer to that always lies in the need, not the want. If you’re buying currency to go on holiday, you basically get what you’re given. ‘Getting it right’ on a few thousand Pounds still doesn’t really move the dial. But if the numbers are bigger, and the situation can afford a bit more patience, then zooming out and looking at the situation objectively often pays.”

Iain Thompson, director of Evolve Finance, said everything was affected by a weaker Pound.

He added: “A sliding Pound is a quiet inflation tax on everyday households. When the Bank of England holds interest rates down while government borrowing costs climb, currency markets lose confidence, causing Sterling to steadily weaken against the Dollar and Euro. For the average person, this isn’t just an abstract financial chart – it’ll hit wallets immediately.

“A weaker Pound means everything the UK imports, from petrol to supermarket groceries, becomes instantly more expensive, keeping domestic inflation sticky. Holidaymakers will feel the sting the fastest at the exchange bureau. If you have a trip planned over the coming months, waiting and hoping for a sudden Sterling recovery is a high-risk gamble.

“While predicting currency is never guaranteed, the downward pressure is real. If your holiday budget is tight, locking in half of your travel cash now protects you from worst-case rate drops, ensuring a sudden currency dip won’t derail your family holiday budget before you even pack your bags.”

Tony Redondo, founder of Newquay-based Cosmos Currency Exchange, said the Bank of England was between a rock and a hard place.

He added: “Rising UK gilt yields are a double-edged sword for the Pound. At first, they boost Sterling’s appeal, a fatter carry-trade return over rival currencies. But soon markets ask why yields are climbing: borrowing costs rising as investors fret over debt sustainability, with the UK’s debt pile racing toward £3 trillion.

“That leaves the Bank of England boxed in; raise rates to choke off the inflationary wave from Brent crude above $95 or hold rates down to protect growth. My money’s on Sterling grinding lower, toward $1.30 and €1.13 ahead of the 28 October Budget, as fiscal deficits erode investor confidence.

“For consumers, a weaker Pound means pricier holidays abroad and imported inflation with higher supermarket bills, fuel costs, and goods prices. Elevated yields also lift swap rates, pushing fixed mortgage pricing higher. Anyone with confirmed overseas costs should buy currency in tranches now, hedging against further falls without gambling on timing.”

Prem Raja, head of trading floor at Currencies 4 You, said people could save as much as €230.

He added: “The rise in gilt yields is not automatically good news for Sterling. UK 10-year borrowing costs reached 5.29%, their highest since 2007, but the Pound still fell below $1.35. Investors appear more concerned about inflation, debt costs and the Government’s limited room ahead of the October Budget than attracted by higher yields.

“The Bank of England is expected to hold rates at 3.75% this month. If markets scale back expectations of a later rise, Sterling could lose another 1-2% over the coming months. GBP/EUR is around €1.16-€1.17, but €1.15 is realistic if fiscal concerns grow. GBP/USD could retest $1.33-$1.34, although US developments matter too.

“Travellers would notice that: a 2% fall means roughly €230 less when exchanging £10,000. I would not tell everyone to buy everything now, but anyone with a confirmed Euro or Dollar requirement should consider securing part of it and staggering the balance. That limits the risk of further weakness without committing everything at one rate.”

Anita Wright, chartered financial planner at Ribble Wealth Management, said a weaker Pound arrived in people’s shopping baskets within weeks, not months.

She added: “Everyone will watch the Pound against the Dollar and Euro. That’s the wrong yardstick. Those currencies are run by governments with the same problem so the Pound can look stable at the bureau de change while quietly losing purchasing power where it matters the supermarket, the petrol station, the energy bill.

“The real test of a currency is what it buys at home, and on that measure Sterling has been slipping for some time. What’s actually going on is this. The BoE holds bank rate down while the gilt market demands 5% and more. That gap gets filled by the Bank buying gilts, which is printing money by another name.

“More Pounds chasing the same goods. Diesel is already tightening and Britain imports most of its energy and much of its food, so a weaker Pound arrives in your shopping basket within weeks, not months. On holiday money swapping Pounds for Euros just moves you from one leaking boat to another.”

Samuel Mather-Holgate, managing director and IFA at Swindon-based Mather and Murray Financial, said there was no point waiting for the Pound to get stronger.

He added: “Sterling is not staring at an instant cliff edge, but the warning lights are flashing. With 10-year gilt yields around levels last seen in 2008 and the Pound slipping below $1.35, markets are telling Britain the free lunch is over. Higher borrowing costs squeeze the Treasury, unsettle mortgage markets and make imported goods, fuel and holidays more expensive if the Pound weakens further.

“For families, this is felt at the airport exchange desk, in supermarket prices and in the next remortgage quote. I would not tell people to gamble on currencies, but anyone with a known Euro or Dollar cost in the next few months may prefer certainty over trying to outguess a very twitchy market. Waiting for a stronger Pound is starting to look like a heroic assumption.”

Nouran Moustafa, practice principal and IFA at Roxton Wealth, said the weak Pound could be seen in airports.

She added: “The Pound is being squeezed from both sides. UK borrowing costs are rising, but markets still expect the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% this month. Sterling has already slipped to around $1.35 and €1.16. For households, this becomes painfully real at the airport.

“A weaker Pound means your hotel, meals and spending money abroad quietly become more expensive without the price tag changing. But I would not tell somebody to panic-buy thousands of Euros today based on a currency forecast. Nobody can reliably call Sterling over the next few weeks.

“If you know you need €2,000 or $3,000 for a trip, buying it in stages is far more sensible than gambling your entire holiday budget on one exchange-rate prediction. The bigger warning is this: when markets lose confidence in government finances, ordinary people eventually feel it. The bond market may look boring. Its consequences absolutely are not.”

Asian stocks fell on Monday as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve boss Kevin Warsh saw investors ramp up bets on a US interest rate hike, while oil prices spiked after a fresh flare-up in the US-Iran war.

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With inflation remaining stubbornly high – largely on the back of elevated energy costs – the US central bank has come under pressure to act, and Warsh’s refusal to provide guidance has stoked uncertainty.

But in a highly anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers and economists in Wyoming, he left traders with few doubts that he was ready to increase borrowing costs.

Warsh said: “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

He called the spike in inflation – currently at 3.7% and nearly double the Fed’s 2% target – “concerning”, and said he would be “hard-pressed” to describe current financial conditions as “restrictive”, a potential hint that rate hikes could be on the horizon.

However, he stopped short of saying he would support a hike, adding: “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.”

All three main indexes on Wall Street fell Friday. Yields on short-term US Treasury bonds – which reflect monetary policy expectations – jumped, and the dollar rallied against its peers. Gold, which benefits from lower interest rates, fell.

And Asia followed suit, with tech firms – which rely on borrowing to fuel their huge AI investments – leading the way down.

Tokyo, Seoul, Hong Kong, Shanghai, Taipei and Jakarta were all down, though Singapore and Wellington edged up.

Investors eye crucial data releases

Focus will now turn to a string of crucial data releases over the next two weeks before the Fed makes its decision, with jobs up this week and the consumer price index (CPI) next week.

“Should we get an inline payrolls print that does not give the Fed too much to work with, next week’s core CPI report will become the major decider for the market’s Fed belief system,” wrote Chris Weston at Pepperstone.

“The volatility priced around that outcome across rates, forex and equities could therefore be significant.”

Oil prices spike on US-Iran tensions

The Fed’s battle against inflation has been hobbled by the Iran war, which has pushed oil prices higher.

And after a run lower for most of last week, they spiked again on Monday, a day after the United States said it had attacked Iranian rocket launchers on a small island in the Strait of Hormuz, its first strikes on the country in a month.

The attack prompted Tehran to retaliate by hitting US military targets in Jordan. Both main crude contracts rose more than 2% on Monday.

The exchange came shortly after the US-Iran war hit the six-month mark, and at a time when hostilities had been subsiding.

The news revived concerns about the conflict, with attempts and peace talks appearing to be going nowhere and the strait – through which a fifth of global crude and gas passes – largely closed.

US officials this month vowed the “economic asphyxiation” of Iran to make it open the waterway.

“Hormuz is once again threatening to put a floor under oil just as Warsh is putting a ceiling on how much inflation patience markets should assume from the Fed,” said Quintex Intel’s Stephen Innes.

“For oil traders, (the) move is another reminder of how quickly the geopolitical premium can return.

“Physical flows through Hormuz have improved materially from their worst levels, which is precisely why crude had started giving back some of the fear premium, but the latest exchange shows how fragile that progress remains and how quickly the shipping story can be pushed back onto the trading desk.”

Additional sources • AFP

Marking his 100th day in the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Wyoming that the US economy has strengthened rather than weakened under recent shocks, that the labour market is consistent with full employment, and that inflation remains the central bank’s dominant concern.

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Warsh declined to say what he would do next month, but he removed most of the arguments against acting and bolstered the ones in favour of a rate hike.

“For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened,” Warsh stated.

“One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient,” he added.

On inflation, Warsh noted that the PCE index stood at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, and 54% of the basket’s components rose by more than 3% over the past year, against 32% in the two decades before the pandemic.

Summer readings that beat expectations “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh stated.

The Federal Reserve Chair’s conclusion was blunt: “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

The standard set was equally direct. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” Warsh declared.

That assessment matters because it eliminates the case for supporting growth with further stimulus and potentially opens the door for restrictive measures as markets moved in response.

At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 0.5% from its Friday high to 4.67% and the 30-year dropped around 0.9% to 5.16%, while the dollar index rose 0.4% from the intraday low to roughly 99.4 points.

Traders raised the implied probability of a 0.25% hike at the 15 and 16 September Fed meeting to 55%, from around 35% before Warsh’s speech.

Performance of the US economy

Warsh opened his speech with what he called a hinge point in history, arguing that artificial intelligence has advanced faster than even its advocates predicted.

Annualised AI token sales at the two leading labs alone exceed $100 billion, he said, up more than 500% in a year.

AI is “a new variable, potentially a new factor of production,” raising questions the Fed cannot answer yet such as whether it will lift productivity and when, whether it complements or replaces labour, and where the returns will ultimately land.

A new Federal Reserve task force on productivity and jobs is examining it, though he stressed its recommendations will have no bearing on current policy decisions.

Warsh then listed extensive evidence for his positive outlook on the US economy.

Business investment in equipment and intangibles growing at around 9%, its fastest since 2021, with more than half of this year’s capital expenditure growth attributable to the AI buildout.

S&P 500 profits went up more than 20% over the year, credit spreads are near historic lows and banks are easing lending standards. Housing and agriculture are strained, Warsh acknowledged, but on balance he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

Unemployment at 4.1% is low by historical standards, with jobless claims near their lowest in decades, leaving inflation as the outlier.

No forward guidance

The Federal Reserve Chair devoted a substantial section to defending his refusal to signal future moves, a stance that has drawn criticism since he took office in May.

Forward guidance was adopted during the 2008 crisis by colleagues including himself, he said, and was essential then, but “the practice has overstayed its welcome” and now “risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

Warsh warned of a hall-of-mirrors problem in which markets read the Fed while the Fed reads markets, leaving both blind to new developments.

“We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade,” he said, adding that the costs of such errors fall not on “financial high-fliers” but on households facing high inflation or insecure jobs.

Warsh also rejected calls to publish an explicit reaction function, arguing economic knowledge does not permit a mechanical rule.

Instead he set out six principles: interrogate incoming data rather than trust stale figures, accept that judging supply against demand is imprecise; treat the 2% PCE target as firm and fixed; pursue both mandates without treating them as a trade-off; rely on short-term rates rather than unconventional tools; and remember that money itself matters.

“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision,” Warsh said in closing.

The decision comes on 16 September at the next Fed meeting.

NS&I has just improved the prize draw odds but the personal finance expert has warned over the best place for money

Personal finance expert Martin Lewis has told anyone with Premium Bonds about the ‘£5,000 rule’ and warned about the chances of actually winning anything. The ITV and BBC star has said that unless people have at least £5,000 in there, the statistics suggest they might be wasting their time.

Premium Bonds are a government-backed UK savings product issued by NS&I (National Savings and Investments). Instead of earning regular interest, a person’s money buys unique £1 bond numbers that are entered into a monthly prize draw to win tax-free cash prizes ranging from £25 to £1 million.

Mr Lewis has spoken out about the bonds, and last week, in a new update, NS&I said that there will be an increase to the Premium Bonds prize fund rate and improved odds from the September 2026 draw. There will be an estimated £63 million of extra tax-free prizes in September, compared to August 2026, NS&I said. There is also an immediate interest rate increase for around 428,000 Direct Saver and 222,000 Income Bonds customers.

More than 22 million Premium Bonds holders will see a boost to the prize fund rate to 4.35%, up from 3.80%, for the September 2026 draw. At the same time, holders will have even more chances to win, with the odds shortening to 21,000 to 1 from 22,000 to 1. The Premium Bonds prize fund rate and odds were last improved in July 2026.

However, Mr Lewis has said that people would have a much better return with normal savings – if they don’t put enough money in – because of the odds. He explained that premium bonds are only worth getting if you have a certain amount of money. In particular, he advised that many grandparents would be better off giving grandchildren cash via normal savings accounts.

He said: “For years, many people, especially grandparents, have gifted their children premium bonds. And frankly, in my view, for many they would’ve done better sticking with normal savings. Premium bonds are government-backed savings, where the interest is based on a prize draw. The current prize fund rate is just 3.6 per cent, yet even that overestimates what most people will actually win with typical luck.”

Martin said that premium bonds are typically only worth buying if you have more than £5,000, to give you a chance of winning the prizes. He noted that premium bonds are “best for”: Those with larger savings, say over £5,000, as then you’ve a better chance of earning closer to the published prize fund rate. “With less, the odds are you will win little or nothing”, he said

Those who pay tax on their savings interest, who have used up their ISA allowances, as premium bond winnings are always tax-free

He added: “As most children have small amounts of savings and aren’t taxpayers, premium bonds are particularly unsuitable. Of course, there’s the ludicrously small chance your child will win a million, but they could also toss a coin and it land on its edge.”

“So if you’re thinking of putting £1,000 or less into premium bonds for a child, it’s worth noting that with average luck our premium bonds probability calculator shows they are likely to win nothing over a year (give it a try based on your scenario).”

He has also delivered his assessment of Premium Bonds in general: “Premium Bond prizes aren’t taxed, which means that if you’ve larger savings in cash, and have maxed out your £20,000 a year ISA allowance and earn enough interest to exceed your PSA, Premium Bonds are probably a decent choice… if you can accept the random nature of the ‘interest’.

“For everyone else, cash ISAs – savings accounts you never pay tax on – are still likely to be the better choice. The top easy-access cash ISA rate is currently 4.4% – slightly lower than the standard non-ISA rate, but tax-free and offering a guaranteed return that’s higher than the current Premium Bond prize rate of 3.6% (which you need to be lucky to get).”

He also said the prize rate – 4.35 per cent from September up from 3.80 per cent is the average return. He said: “The smallest prize is £25. So what happens on £100 is a lot of people get nothing and a few get £25.” He said the mena average, which is 4.35 per cent from Sept, but more important: “Is the median average which is zero on £100 in Premium Bonds over a year.

“Median is if you lined everybody up who had £100 in Premium Bonds from those who win the most to those who win the least what would the person exactly halfway along win.

“The first thing to say is someone with typical luck will always win less than the mean average. What affects the amount you win, generally, is the amount you’ve got in. The more you have in the closer you will get to the mean average on typical luck.”

However, the ‘tax-free’ nature of Premium Bonds could offer a benefit, he suggested: “Most people do not pay tax on savings. That’s because, as well as your normal personal allowance up to £12,570 a year you can earn from any source, most people are getting either a £1,000 personal savings allowance – so that’s £1,000 of interest they can earn a year without paying tax on it – or £500 personal savings allowance if you are a higher rate taxpayer.”

If someone has a lot of savings, it could mean they’re paying tax on the interest, and if that’s the case, he said people should consider making sure their ISA allowance is full.

He said: “If you’ve got a cash ISA allowance available, I’d be putting it there. Then, if you’re paying tax on your savings and you’ve filled up your cash ISA allowance, and especially if you’re higher rate taxpayers which means you’re going to be losing 40 per cent off your savings interest on any that you pay tax on, at that point, Premium Bonds even on typical luck at around 3.2 3.3 per cent after tax start to look good value.”

Mr Lewis also urged people to place their savings in high-yield accounts. For those who relish the excitement of potentially winning big, he proposed purchasing a small Lotto ticket: “To all those people who say ‘what about the thrill of winning’, yes there’s the thrill of winning but, you know what, if you put savings account, you’re going to win interest each month and you’ll know exactly how much you’ll be getting and it’ll probably be bigger.

“There is a chance of winning a million, but if you really want to talk about the thrill of winning, then it’s probably far more sensible and more effective for those people who don’t pay tax on savings and who aren’t higher rate taxpayers, to go and put their money in top savings and then take a couple of quid out and put it in the National Lottery and then you get your thrill of winning anyway but you get more return on the underlying savings.”

NS&I responded at the time: “Premium Bonds remain one of the nation’s favourite savings products and are a flexible and fun way to save. They offer the excitement of potentially winning tax-free prizes every month, the safety and security of the 100% government guarantee, and easy access to withdrawals.

“Every Premium Bond has a separate and equal chance of winning a prize each month, however the more Bonds you buy, the better your chances of winning.

“Each month we pay out millions of prizes ranging from £25 to £1 million. In our most recent draw, there were more than 6.1 million prizes worth over £403 million.”

Published on 18/08/2026 – 12:47 GMT+2•Updated
13:04

Government borrowing costs are surging on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Long-term bond yields across Europe’s biggest economies hit multi-year highs on Tuesday, while the yield on 30-year US Treasuries rose to its highest level in nearly two decades.

The sell-off came as hopes of a swift resolution to the Iran conflict faded, pushing oil prices higher and renewing concerns about persistent inflation. International benchmark Brent crude traded at nearly $91 a barrel on Tuesday morning amid heightened tensions in the Middle East.

“The breakdown in US-Iran peace talks has increased the risk that energy prices remain elevated for the rest of the year, which could keep inflation higher than expected and increase the chance of central banks raising rates,” Richard Carter, head of fixed interest research at Quilter Cheviot, told Euronews Business.

Investors are increasingly betting on tighter monetary policy in the eurozone, with the ECB deposit rate expected to reach 2.76% by March 2027, up from 2.25% currently.

According to Trading Economics, investors see a 90% probability of a September rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB).

At the same time, in the US, the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.33%, a level not seen since 2007. In the UK, the 30-year gilt traded at 5.85% — its highest level since May 2026.

As government bonds came under renewed selling pressure globally, France’s 10-year bond yield rose to 4.10% on Tuesday morning, its highest level since June 2009.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield, the benchmark for the eurozone, climbed above 3.25%, reaching its highest level since March 2011.

France’s 30-year bond yield reached its highest level since 2008, amid a global bond sell-off and growing concern about the country’s 2027 budget negotiations and next year’s presidential election. Germany’s 30-year bond yield rose to 3.78%, its highest level in 15 years.

Rising long-dated bond yields are not driven solely by expectations of higher interest rates and inflation fears.

“Investors are concerned about the scale of borrowing in major economies including the UK, France and Japan,” Carter continued, adding that “significant volumes of AI-related bond issuance have also added to supply, creating further pressure on prices and pushing yields higher.

Higher borrowing costs put pressure on economies and raise financing costs across a range of investments.

As government debt offices constantly raise money through bond markets, the effect of the jump in yields will gradually feed into their borrowing costs as they refinance maturing debt.

Italy is expected to refinance maturing debt equivalent to 17% of GDP in 2026, according to S&P Global Ratings, compared with 12% for France and 7% each for Germany and the UK.

For now, bond markets are likely to remain sensitive to developments in both geopolitics and economic data,” Carter said.

He added that bonds remain attractive to investors because yields are historically high and comfortably exceed inflation, offering a positive return after price rises are taken into account.