impact

That reality has created a new one.

Rashford is contracted to Manchester United until 2028. His salary of £325,000 a week makes him the club’s top earner at a time when minority owner Sir Jim Ratcliffe is trying to stay on top of wage costs, which is, by some distance, the club’s highest expenditure.

United’s transfer activity has slowed since Belgium midfielder Youri Tielemans joined them for £35m on 14 July.

While uncertainty over Rashford’s future is not the entire reason for this, it is a basic truth that Manchester United‘s search for a left-sided attacking player, or another striker, will be impacted if he stays at the club because he can play in both positions.

Equally, the amount United can pay in wages will differ depending on whether Rashford’s salary is part of the overall bill.

Many fans are conflicted.

Plenty feel Rashford’s fallout with Amorim over his performances in training was reflective of someone who no longer felt the joy of playing for his boyhood club.

Comparisons were made with his performances prior to his exit from United and those at Aston Villa, with England and then Barcelona.

Others think Rashford is too good to be discarded; a local lad who would benefit from an arm around the shoulder and is capable of making a significant impact in Carrick’s team.

The secondary point to that is could United sign a player of similar standing for £26m, given that is the fee sources close to Rashford feel would not be exceeded given it had been agreed with Barcelona?

FIFA’s World Cup 2026 expansion was their first since 1998, but the 2030 edition could rise to 64 teams.

FIFA is studying whether to expand the World Cup from 48 to 64 teams for the 2030 edition in a move that could reshape football’s showpiece tournament when it celebrates its centennial.

World football’s governing body wants to appoint an independent agency to assess the ambitious expansion plan, which would add another 16 nations to ⁠a tournament that had already grown from 32 to 48 teams in 2026.

“FIFA wishes to appoint an independent agency to determine whether and how expanding the FIFA World Cup from 48 to 64 participating national teams, starting with the 2030 edition, would impact on the tournament proposition,” it said in a research brief seen by the news agency Reuters.

South American confederation CONMEBOL had officially proposed hosting the 2030 World ‌Cup with 64 teams last year, allowing more countries the opportunity to join in the celebrations for the tournament’s centennial edition.

The 2026 edition in the US, Canada and Mexico was the first since 1998 to move away from the 32-team format, adding four more groups and an extra knockout round in the process, resulting in 104 matches over more than five weeks.

The accelerated study comes on the heels of FIFA’s plan to create a $20bn subsidiary to run the World Cup and its other events with external investors, a move that has attracted criticism and a ⁠UEFA decision to boycott FIFA events.

Al Jazeera has contacted FIFA for comment.

UEFA and FIFA could be on another World Cup collision course

UEFA President ⁠Aleksander Ceferin said last year that expanding the World Cup to 64 teams was not a good idea.

The European governing body’s position has not changed since then, while Asian Football Confederation President Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa had also voiced opposition, questioning last year where further expansion ⁠might end.

FIFA’s proposed analysis is meant to assess whether the proposed expansion can strengthen the tournament or whether concerns such as competition dilution, calendar congestion, operational complexity and market saturation ⁠outweigh the potential benefits.

The study will examine the potential impact of expanding ⁠the tournament to 64 teams, including the effects on the competition, competitive balance, qualification, player welfare and the international calendar.

It will also estimate the revenues that could be generated from ticket sales, sponsorship and media rights under the proposed format.

“The final recommendation should demonstrate not only whether a 64-team tournament ‌can generate incremental value, but whether that value is sustainable,” the document added.

FIFA said a decision on selecting the agency would be made on August 14 and they would have only four weeks to deliver their analysis by September 11.

The ‌2030 ‌World Cup is being jointly hosted by Morocco, Portugal and Spain, while Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay will host one match each to celebrate the tournament’s 100th anniversary.

FIFA is already facing a dispute with its confederations due to a plan to sell stakes in World Cups and other events to private investors.

Natasha Watley grew up dreaming about playing for the Atlanta Braves.

Sharlize Palacios wanted to suit up for her hometown San Diego Padres.

Megan Grant and Maya Brady thought softball would end after graduation.

The 2003 Honda Award winner. A 2024 second-team All-American. The single-season NCAA home run record holder. And a freshman of the year honoree.

The Portland Cascade’s Megan Grant fields the ball during a game against the Oklahoma City Spark on July 4 in Edmond, Okla.

(Courtesy of AUSL)

All of whom never dreamed of being a professional softball player. Not because their love for the sport dwindled. Nor because professional routes were not an option. Pro softball leagues have existed since 1976, but they have lacked the visibility and accessibility imperative to flourishing and gaining popularity.

“From my experience growing up, and it’s the same amongst a lot of athletes that are my age, we didn’t have a lot of role models to look up to,” said Chicago Bandits outfielder Jessica Clements, who spent her senior season at UCLA in 2025. “We had Jennie Finch, Natasha Watley, Monica Abbott, but the odds of playing professionally were slim. There wasn’t a lot of opportunity, and a lot of younger kids were unsure of what the environment would look like in many years.”

That’s changing with AUSL, the Athletes Unlimited Softball League.

The AUSL — which launched in 2025 and builds off previous iterations of professional softball — saw a 181% increase in average viewership across ESPN platforms in one year, including a record-high 404,000 viewers for a June 21 game between the Portland Cascade and Texas Volts.

Among the 96 active players in the AUSL, 13 are former UCLA softball players — omitting two general managers, a head coach and an assistant coach that are a part of the AUSL and hail from the Westwood program — making UCLA the most well-represented school in the league. That pipeline was on full display this weekend at Texas A&M’s Davis Diamond, where the Utah Talons — who boast a roster with five former Bruins, including UCLA softball associate head coach Lisa Fernandez as the general manager — clinched their second straight AUSL title over the Chicago Bandits on Sunday. UCLA alum Jadelyn Allchin was named the AUSL championship MVP.

And UCLA softball’s presence in all facets of AUSL is no coincidence.

The Bruins feature 12 NCAA championships and 119 All-American honorees, both of which rank first all time, and that’s not including an AIAW title and one All-American before the NCAA era. But while the program is known for its accolades, the influence UCLA and its players have made on the sport stretches far beyond any banners or trophies.

“When you look at the history of softball in the last 40 years, you can’t see a U.S. national team, any pro venture or excellence at any level of softball without having an influence of UCLA in it,” said Oklahoma City Sparks general manager Kirk Walker, who spent 24 years coaching as an assistant coach in Westwood.

There have been only three coaches — Sharron Backus, Sue Enquist and Kelly Inouye-Perez — in UCLA history, all of whom created unparalleled success and a program built on a standard of excellence and a familial culture. But no aspect of the UCLA culture may be more significant than the “Bruin Bubble” — a concept at the very heart of the program centered on alumni involvement.

“It comes from the women who were there from the beginning, paving the way for players like us and players that are to come,” said Sparks infielder Delanie Wisz, who competed at UCLA from 2020 to 2022. “The idea of the ‘Bruin Bubble’ and buying into something bigger than yourself, coach Sue Enquist, coach Sharron Backus and coach Inouye-Perez have done a really good job of keeping that at the forefront, and making sure that we’re playing for something much bigger than any individual award.”

While the childhood aspirations of the Bruins in the AUSL never reached the height of professional softball, a common goal connected them all — playing for their dream school in Westwood and learning from individuals who have achieved immeasurable success greater than any record or championship.

Utah Talons General Manager Lisa Fernandez shows off her 2025 AUSL championship ring in Salt Lake City, Utah.

(Courtesy of AUSL)

Backus and Enquist set the foundation for what softball is today, paving the way for new opportunities by sacrificing for the greater good of softball’s future.

While the duo set the trail ablaze, they have passed the baton to a trio of coaches — Inouye-Perez, Walker and Fernandez, who have spent a combined 72 years in Westwood.

And the group has not stopped running since.

The Bruins are not only responsible for creating the next generation of pro softball players through the UCLA program, but also furthering the message and mission of Backus and Enquist.

“From when I was in college to now, there’s been a big shift in how things go,” said Rachel Garcia, two-time Honda Cup winner at UCLA and a Volts pitcher in the AUSL, “but at the end of the day, Lisa Fernandez, Kelly Inouye-Perez, Kirk Walker, that would be who I’d want to play for every single day, because I know that they are able to give the girls what they need in order to perform at the best that they can be.”

While Inouye-Perez continues to steer the Bruin ship, Walker and Fernandez serve in general manager roles for the Sparks and Talons, respectively.

The Utah Talons’ Jordan Woolery fields the ball during a July 11 AUSL game against the Oklahoma City Spark in Edmond, Okla.

(Morgan Givens / AUSL)

Grant emphasized that all three coaches could easily walk away because of the imprint they left and the resume they built. Yet, Inouye-Perez and Fernandez not only chose to stick around the game, but to reinvest their time in furthering the league and sport altogether.

“I accept the responsibility to help carry the torch and move it forward, and hand it off to the Jennie Finches and the Cat Ostermans,” Fernandez said. “They’re going to hand it off to the next generation that are going to continue to build this game and hopefully it’ll become something where little girls can go, ‘I’m going to be a professional softball player, and be a role model for those who have the opportunity to watch me.’ And at the end of the day that’s the true value.”

Integral to pushing the game forward is taking advantage of the traction and momentum gained by the 2028 Summer Olympics, where softball will return to the stage for the first time since 2021.

Fernandez highlighted that when softball was added to the Olympics in 1996, it was the pinnacle of the sport. But when it was removed following 2008 because the IOC didn’t see enough global competition for the gold medal, she felt that she failed. It was a setback that inspired her push to get the sport to a place where it did not have to rely on the host country to include it among Olympic events.

“A mission that’s close to my heart is the growth of the sport globally because it is so important for it to be in the Olympics, not just in 2028 but in 2032,” said Talons pitcher Megan Faraimo, who competed at UCLA from 2019 to 2023. “I don’t want to be the last generation to make it into the Olympics. I want to protect the future of everyone coming after me, and that means capitalizing on it being in L.A. We can use that to then push the sport into 2032 and hopefully get back on that Olympic rhythm.”

The shy 9-year-old Nathan Negrete doesn’t naturally gravitate toward the spotlight, but as Negrete stood with Weston McKennie in front of the roaring 74,904 fans at SoFi Stadium, he smiled.

Looking back nearly a month later, the Pico Rivera resident doesn’t remember much of the U.S. men’s national team win over Paraguay, getting overwhelmed by the experience. But he remembers what McKennie told him — something Negrete decided should be kept secret despite a large smile on his face.

“The best day ever,” he said of the experience. “Because I went to the World Cup.”

Quaker and Common Goal partnered with FIFA to select children and young adults to escort teams out onto the pitch before kickoff. Negrete, who attends Rio Vista Elementary, was one of the lucky few who joined the U.S. team before its 4-1 win over Paraguay. It was a joyous start to a tournament run that would eventually end in the Round of 16.

A fan of both the U.S. and Mexico, Negrete started playing soccer at 4. His mother, Monica Ocampo, and his father, Jonathan Negrete, were both soccer fans, and they encouraged him to play as a striker. After his practices, though, Negrete would step into the goal and block his teammates’ shots. And once he strapped on the gloves officially, his parents couldn’t convince him to leave the net.

But there wasn’t anything quite like the experience of stepping out in front of the roaring crowd. Even as the city prepared to host the World Cup, as nearby restaurants hung banners to attract pedestrians and watch party notifications flooded social media, Ocampo said she wasn’t prepared for the impact of watching her child take the field with the national team.

The family held a 15-person watch party, just not for the actual game — for her son. The Telemundo broadcast zoomed in on Negrete and McKennie. For a couple of moments, Negrete scanned the stadium seriously, but then he looked up to see himself and McKennie on the SoFi Stadium video boards. So, he smiled.

“I cried,” Ocampo said. “His dad looked like he wanted to cry when he saw him.”

Messages from friends and family flooded her phone as the rest of the people who knew Negrete realized he was on the broadcast. Was that Nathan? Was that your son? Negrete took on a new nickname after his appearance: “Famous Nathan.”

As Nathan drove home with his mom, he still couldn’t believe what had happened. It took a few days for him to take it all in, and once he started talking about it, not a lot could stop him. The one priceless memory he kept with him was simple:

“‘I really want to be a professional soccer player now,’” Ocampo remembers her son saying in the car ride home. “Actually being there, seeing the field, actually living it, that’s one thing he told me that night: I really want to be a professional.”

He wouldn’t be the first. Graham Zusi, who played for the U.S. men’s national team between 2012 and 2017, participated in the 1994 World Cup opening ceremony as a 7-year-old. And even now, Negrete is using his experience to fuel his dreams of playing professionally, revisiting the YouTube video of the experience again and again.

“Hopefully one day he gets there, but wherever his life takes him, just for him to see that experience, it’s something he’s never going to forget,” Ocampo said. “Even now, sometimes we talk about him like I can’t believe he actually did that.”

For several months, Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport was so packed with U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers deployed for the fight against Iran that officials in Jerusalem complained about the toll that presence was taking on airport operations. The issue came to a head on Tuesday, when Israel’s Transportation Minister placed a limit on how many of these jets can land at Ben Gurion Airport. The move comes despite an increase in fighting between the U.S. and Iran and with several Arab nations coming under fire from the Islamic Republic. Tuesday afternoon, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced a new round of strikes against Iranian targets as the naval blockade on that nation’s ports is being restored.

While an anonymously sourced Israeli news story stated that U.S. and Israeli officials are irate about this decision, three experts we spoke with suggest that despite ratcheted-up kinetic actions, the restrictions on tanker operations at Ben Gurion will be more of an inconvenience to U.S. forces than a major problem.

At issue is the tension faced by a very busy international airport operating at the peak of summer travel season, while also having to host dozens of American tankers deployed for high-tempo combat operations that are currently not happening.

“Hundreds of thousands of plane tickets were bought by Israelis to fly and enjoy their summer vacation,” Miri Regev said earlier on Tuesday. “We promised that we will enable commercial flights and we will not cancel a single ticket because of American refueling planes.”

“Therefore I have given instructions that we will not allow any U.S. refueling tankers to land at Ben Gurion Airport beyond the agreed number of 20 planes, and the remaining planes will land at Air Force bases.”

As we reported in the past, the U.S. Air Force began sending tankers to Ben Gurion in the lead-up to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that began Feb. 28.

Nine KC-46 Pegasus and five KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling jets arrived at Ben Gurion in the days before hostilities began. The number of U.S. Air Force tankers, as well as the service’s cargo jets, at the airport has grown tremendously since then.

“A fleet of about 75 U.S. refuelers and cargo planes had parked at Ben Gurion Airport for many months, as part of the US military buildup in the region prior to the war,” the Times of Israel reported on Tuesday. “Following the partial removal of the tankers in recent weeks, more than 30 US refueling planes are estimated to be stationed at Ben Gurion Airport, crowding out civilian aircraft and creating a shortage of parking spaces.” 

In our previous reporting, we noted that dozens of U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft deployed to Ben Gurion Airport had been expected to stay in Israel at least until the end of this year, though those plans now appear to be in flux.

Satellite imagery indicates the US has withdrawn 32 of the roughly 60–72 aerial refueling tankers it had stationed at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport, leaving about 32 as of early July 2026.

Source: @EGYOSINT pic.twitter.com/V8hKe2BfzJ

— Clash Report (@clashreport) July 7, 2026

Meanwhile, there are alternatives for the dozen or so KC-135s and KC-46s that now need a new home. The Air Force can operate tankers from several other bases in Israel as well as across the region. However, bases closer to Iran have come under dense Iranian fire and five tankers were reportedly damaged in an Iranian long-range strike on Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia in March. Operating far forward during war time, such as at the traditional hub for these operations, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, isn’t possible due to the extreme risk posed by Iranian standoff weapons. Other bases, like Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan is already packed with aircraft with little room for dozens of tankers.

As we noted earlier in this piece, the tanker limit reportedly upset U.S. and Israeli officials alike.

“Senior officials at U.S. Central Command have contacted the IDF’s top brass and Israel’s defense establishment in recent hours following the Transportation Ministry’s decision Tuesday not to allow additional American refueling aircraft to land at Ben-Gurion Airport,” according to Israel’s Ynet news outlet. “According to sources familiar with the details, the Americans were angered by the decision and made clear that it directly harms the operational needs of U.S. forces operating in the region amid the escalation with Iran. They said the refueling aircraft are a vital component of the regional deterrence and defense array.”

TWZ cannot independently confirm Ynet‘s reporting. Earlier in the day, Navy Capt. Tim Hawkins, CENTCOM’s spokesman, told us that the command “will continue working with our Israeli partners to best position U.S. aircraft to support operations.”

Hawkins declined to elaborate.

“Israel is a strong military ally, and we appreciate the warm hospitality for American forces as we work shoulder to shoulder in promoting regional security and stability,” Hawkins stated.

Meanwhile, as we have noted in earlier reporting, the U.S. has already returned F-22 Raptors that were flying out of Ovda Air Base in Israel back to the United States. Other aircraft, such as A-10s and F-15Es, have also returned home from or have been replaced in the CENTCOM region. So clearly there is a lot of shifting of aviation assets taking place even amid current operations.

A former senior U.S. Air Force leader acknowledged the tensions inherent in operating military aircraft for combat operations out of a civilian airport. However, Ben Gurion is considered one of the most important airfields in the region, the former official told us. 

Ben Gurion’s location, situated just to the southeast of Tel Aviv, roughly in the center of the country, is a big factor, both in terms of geography and Israel’s vaunted integrated air defense system (IADS), the former leader added.

Still, he suggested that the new limits at Ben Gurion don’t automatically mean a restriction in U.S. air operations against Iran or in support of partner forces.

Given the existing options in the region, CENTCOM and the Air Force will be looking at what runway, ramp space, and equipment availability there is elsewhere.

“Flow control is something we’re always concerned about during combat operations,” he explained, adding that planners will consider distance to where the tankers have to orbit, proximity to potential threats, and the capacity to launch sorties.

“They really work in advance to create the best mix of protection, survivability, and an operational envelope,” the former senior leader noted.

Retired Air Force Col. Troy Pananon, who once commanded Mildenhall Air Base, a tanker installation in the U.K., surmised that the Ben Gurion restrictions will have limited effects.

“I would say the base has an impact on the overall plan, but it doesn’t limit the ability to execute,” said Pananon, who was quick to point out he has no inside information about current operations. “Tanker planners can and should modify the plan to ensure there is enough fuel airborne in the AOR to accommodate the requirements for the receivers servicing the designated targets for the day. In other words, if they are limited in capacity at base A, they can or will supplement from base B, or adjust loiter times or targets.”

“Air campaigns by nature are a fluid event and stresses the importance of planners, leadership and C2 [command and control,” he added.

Israel is carrying out a balancing act when it comes to Ben Gurion, a high-ranking IDF official told us.

The airport “is effectively Israel’s only major international civilian airport,” he noted. “Haifa and Ramon handle only a very small fraction of Israel’s civilian air traffic. Operationally, Ben Gurion can accommodate roughly 20 U.S. Air Force refueling tankers. Beyond that number, the impact on civilian aviation becomes significant.”

However, “at the same time, Ben Gurion is arguably the safest airport in the region for U.S. aircraft,” the IDF official pointed out. “That is why discussions are currently focused on finding the right balance between parking tankers at Ben Gurion and dispersing them among Israeli Air Force bases. In my view, this is fundamentally an operational, economic and civil aviation issue, not a political one.”

The issue of U.S. Air Force tankers at Ben Gurion interfering with civil aviation is not new.

“The presence of the aircraft—not the U.S. military—is causing significant operational difficulties at Ben Gurion Airport, as they are parked almost everywhere possible at the airport,” Israel’s N12 News reported on X back in May.

בישראל התקבלו מסרים מהאמריקנים שלפיהם עשרות מטוסי התדלוק המוצבים בנמל התעופה בן גוריון צפויים להישאר בארץ לפחות עד סוף השנה האזרחית. נוכחות המטוסים שלא הצבא האמריקני מעוררת קשיים משמעותיים בתפעולו של נתב”ג, שכן הם חונים כמעט בכל מקום אפשרי בנמל@Dean_Fisher_

— החדשות – N12 (@N12News) May 18, 2026

How long the limitations at Ben Gurion last remains an open question, especially should Israel find itself at war again with Iran. 

As we pointed out in previous reporting, the KC-46s and KC-135s now at Ben Gurion alone are a tanker force far larger than what the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has in its inventory today. Each KC-46 also carries more fuel to offload to receivers than a KC-707 or a KC-135. During Epic Fury, when both the U.S. and Israel were attacking Iran, U.S. tankers gassed up IAF jets.

All this being said, in a time of war, these restrictions would be quickly lifted and civilian flights would decline. While moving aircraft around to other bases and still providing the majority of the refueling capacity available before the tankers’ exodus from Tel Aviv will certainly be possible, sortie rates and durations for receiver aircraft could still suffer in a sudden crisis. Seeing as these are tankers, their availability and proximity to their ‘customers’ has downstream effects. It comes down to how much gas is available in the sky at any given time versus the needs of the air operation. Luckily, America’s tanker crews and planners are masters at juggling their assets to make sure any changes in basing has a minimal impact on commanders’ needs.

The Israeli Transportation Minister’s decision comes as the prospects for a diplomatic settlement of the tensions between the U.S. and Iran seem dimmer than at any point since a ceasefire was agreed to on April 8.

As we noted earlier in this piece, CENTCOM forces “began launching an additional round of strikes on Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” the command stated on X. “The strikes are taking place as American forces prepare to resume the naval blockade against Iranian ports and coastal areas. The blockade goes into effect at 4 p.m. ET.”

At 3 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching an additional round of strikes against Iran to continue degrading Iranian capabilities used to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes are taking place as American forces prepare to resume the…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 14, 2026

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “warned Iran on Tuesday against launching future attacks on Israel, saying Tehran would face a far harsher response than in previous confrontations,” the Jerusalem Post reported on Tuesday.

“Do not count on it being quiet if you attack us,” Netanyahu said while speaking at the Negev Conference in Dimona. “Do not count on a rerun; this will be a different event, much more powerful.”

Prime Minister Netanyahu, today, at the Negev Conference in Dimona – in a message to Iran’s leaders:
“We are prepared for any scenario. I can tell you only one thing, and I will say this to the leaders of Iran: Do not count on it being quiet if you attack us. Do not count on a… pic.twitter.com/tbgRd7PNon

— Prime Minister of Israel (@IsraeliPM) July 14, 2026

Given all this, it does not appear there will be much of a reduction in the need for U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers in the Middle East. However, where they will be based remains in flux.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

June 23 (UPI) — U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for AI companies to disclose what the environmental impact of data centers will be by 2030 during a speech Tuesday at London Climate Action Week.

Guterres said that the AI boom and the world’s dependence on oil are driving the climate crisis and laid out plans to curb the damage.

“These crises may seem separate but they share the same destructive origin: fossil fuels,” Guterres said. “And they demand the same answer: a fast, fair transition to clean energy and a surge in adaptation, resilience and climate justice for those already facing climate harm.”

The United Nations’ seven-point plan for energy independence includes quickly cutting emissions to reach net zero emissions by 2050. This would mean the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere are balanced out by the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere.

The plan also calls for an acceleration of developing and adopting clean energy, transparency from AI firms on their environmental impact by 2030, ensuring the transition to clean energy is equitable in its job creation and community support, investment in early warning systems, expanding funding for developing countries and combatting climate disinformation.

The United Nations said scientists it supports are warning that average annual temperatures are likely to exceed the 1.5-degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels target set out by the Paris Climate Accords adopted in 2016. It notes that the United States withdrew from the agreement for the second time under President Donald Trump.

“Every fraction of a degree matters,” Guterres said.

Ryanair is threatening to withdraw five aircraft and cancel 20 routes

A major Ryanair move could impact millions of passengers, with 20 routes axed and around 150 jobs lost.

The budget airline could withdraw planes from its Charleroi base as soon as this winter if Belgium goes ahead with plans to double its tax on airline tickets. “But we are not going to completely close the Charleroi base,” said Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary during a press visit to the company’s headquarters in Dublin. The federal government is looking to double the airfare tax on flights exceeding 500 kilometres from next year, pushing it up from 5 to 10 euros.

This would bring the levy in line with that applied to short-haul flights, although the tax on these is also set to rise to 11 euros. Finance Minister Jan Jambon made clear this week that he has no plans to reverse the decision.

As a result, Ryanair would remove five of its 19 aircraft currently operating out of Charleroi from this winter. Twenty routes would be scrapped, 15 at Charleroi and five at Zaventem representing a loss of two million passengers per year, Mr O’Leary confirmed.

Ryanair warns that scaling back its Charleroi operations would also put approximately 150 jobs at risk, though affected pilots and cabin crew, many of whom are foreign nationals, would be offered positions at alternative bases. However, “we want to grow in Belgium,” Mr O’Leary said.

“Ryanair aims to increase passenger numbers from 208 million in 2025 to 300 million in the coming years. We want to achieve some of this growth at Charleroi and Zaventem, but for that to happen, the tax on airline tickets must be eliminated, and airport fees must be reduced.”

According to Ryanair’s chief executive, if the tax on airline tickets is not raised, no aircraft will be withdrawn from Charleroi Airport and the situation will remain unchanged. Should the tax be scrapped entirely, it would open the door to further expansion across Belgium.

Ryanair has put forward a growth strategy projecting almost 50% more passengers in Belgium by 2030, pushing the total to 16 million. The Irish carrier would then reopen its base at Brussels Airport, a hub it continues to operate from but where it no longer stations any aircraft, and would even weigh up flights to and from Liège.

This ambitious expansion plan will only come to fruition, however, if all of Ryanair’s demands are met, most notably a loosening of restrictions on night flights in Brussels. On the flip side, any hike in the airline ticket tax would result in a scaling back of operations.

The closure of the Charleroi base isn’t under consideration, though. “Normally, we would never close Charleroi,” said O’Leary. “We’re not going to threaten to close Charleroi. It’s one of our largest bases, and we’ve invested a lot of time and effort in developing this airport over the last thirty years. But in the long term, we could reduce the base to, say, 10 aircraft.”

O’Leary also touched on the soaring cost of aviation fuel, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. The airline has locked in 80% of its fuel requirements until next March at an average cost of $67 per barrel, while the current rate stands at $100 or above.

“We aren’t hedging for the following period yet, as we anticipate prices falling in the coming months. But we could be wrong. If prices haven’t fallen by September, we’ll start to worry.”

With consumer uncertainty prevailing, O’Leary doesn’t expect any fare rises this summer. “Fares should remain stable. We need to incentivise people to travel by offering slightly lower prices” than the 3% to 5% increase that had been forecast.

The Middle East has been a difficult region to deal with in oil markets. When it comes to energy geographies, the region has proven to be a disproportionately significant part of the world’s energy resources, with export facilities traversing a handful of maritime routes and political situations that have been tense, if not outright volatile, at times. The change in 2025 and into 2026 isn’t the nature of the forces but rather the confluence of overlapping pressures: ongoing sanctions enforcement, multiple theaters of conflict, OPEC+ tensions that are more public than ever in previous years, and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which now seem to have become a semi-permanent part of the shipping route landscape.

There is no background information for commodity traders, market analysts, and energy investors. It’s a real-time, constantly evolving dynamic that can make all the difference in the day-to-day performance of prices, and it’s particularly important when prices are sliding around rapidly, and the stories behind them are changing just as fast.

The Behavior of Prices and the Risk of Middle East Supplies

Traders who follow crude oil price live data are the first ones to witness this. Real-time feeds are a reflection of more than just the fundamental supply-demand elements, but the market’s real-time assessment of the value of geopolitical risk and how much it “should” be worth at any given moment. A news event, which is a minor detail in a more stable environment, can cause future prices to move $5 or more in less than an hour. The consistent and tough question – and it is a tough one – is, which events actually have physical supply implications and which ones are sentiment-driven moves that die in a session or two?

The Strait of Hormuz

About 20-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products go through the Strait of Hormuz, which is about 20% of the world’s oil consumption. No readily available bypasses can be found that can absorb that flow at a similar cost. There are partial alternatives, including the IPSA pipeline and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, but they would not even come close to filling the deficit should the Hormuz be closed en masse.

Source

It is a strait between Oman and Iran. Geography makes it so that any serious disruption in U.S.-Iran relations or of security conditions in the Gulf in general puts Hormuz back on the market’s agenda. Traders are all familiar with this: when there is a lot of Iranian tension, the futures positioning will always reflect the chokepoint risk, even if there is no incident per se.

Production Outages That Don’t Make the Front Page

Key Risk Factors Shaping Market Sentiment in 2026

Active Conflict Zones and Exposure to Infrastructure

The Persistent Iranian Supply Question

Infrastructure Concentration Risk

OPEC+ Internal Dynamics

Non-State Actor Activity and Shipping Friction

How the Market Prices Geopolitical Risk

Risk Premium in Practice

Geopolitical risk premiums in times of heightened Middle East tension have varied from around $4 to $10 per barrel, depending on the market participants’ views on the probability of actual physical supply disruptions in the case of Brent crude, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s a fairly broad window for economic trading, and it has a tendency to close up very fast when the tension subsides and without a supply event, which is the more common scenario.

The geopolitical risk premium factors analysts may consider are:

• The nearness to active conflict, producing fields, or the working export terminals.
• Production capacity that would be available to make up for the loss of production elsewhere.
• The availability and magnitude of the IEA’s strategic stockpiles to be tapped.
• Current tanker market conditions and the viability of an alternative route.
• Diplomatic messages sent by governments in the area, including the United States and other great powers
• Past examples of similar events, which have had identifiable supply impacts.

It is not easy to give exact weights to these inputs. Part of the reason for the price action to seemingly be different with comparable geopolitical events can be due to different analysts forming different conclusions from the same events.

Historical Supply Disruptions and Price Responses

The 2025-2026 entry is a more diffuse form of market pressure than those acute events listed above. It is not one particular incident, but rather sanctions enforcement and Iranian volumes kept low and shipping activity in the Red Sea continuing to cause friction in the transport system, which has kept transport costs elevated. The World Economic Outlook from the IMF pointed out that this type of persistent supply constraint is likely to have a longer-lasting impact on medium-term price expectations than acute supply shocks, which markets have historically been able to absorb and turn around in relatively short periods of time. Thus, a slow-burning risk premium can be more ‘sticky’ than a dramatic risk premium.

Broader Market Implications

Strategic Reserve Releases (SRRs) as a Counterweight

Geopolitical Risk Analysis: What It Does and Doesn’t Accomplish

Conclusion

Disclaimer

Still a town at the time – it wasn’t granted city status until 1992 – Sunderland was a different world to the one in which Gregoire had grown up. Born in 1958 in the Toxteth area of Liverpool to Windrush Generation parents from the Caribbean island of Dominica, he was raised in Bradford, another multi-cultural city.

By contrast, according to the Census figures, barely 1% of a Sunderland population approaching 300,000 in 1981 was of African-Caribbean origin.

A fifth of the League’s 92 clubs had yet to sign a black player by 1978, the year Nottingham Forest’s Viv Anderson became the first to claim a senior England cap.

“I knew only one other black fellow in Sunderland, he was at the polytechnic,” remembers Gregoire. “Wayne Entwistle [a white striker, who signed the same day in a £30,000 deal from Bury] shared digs with me for a while and was a good guy, but it was quite a lonely time.”

Gregoire cites the club’s 1973 FA Cup-winning captain Bobby Kerr and experienced midfielder Mick Docherty as two colleagues who made him feel welcome, in a debut season where he made eight first-team appearances.

But he felt the dressing room attitude towards him change in the summer of 1978, with a couple of notable incidents on a pre-season tour of Kenya.

“After one game, all these children ran on to the pitch and went up to one of our players and gathered round him,” he says. “But when they’d gone he came to me and wiped his hands on my shirt. I thought that was disgusting.

“It was like he thought those children had disease, and wanted to wipe it on me! Why me? Because I’m black, is that why?”

Later, at a post-match reception at the home of a wealthy local white family, the team lined up to meet the hostess.

“She shook the hand of the players on my right, bypassed me, then shook the hand of everyone else,” he says.

“I didn’t waste a second. I just calmly and coolly walked out of the house and on to the team bus. I would rather be out there, with lions and hyenas, than be inside, being insulted like that.

“Not one person came to see how I was, or to offer some comfort. It was only when they’d finished eating and drinking, laughing and joking, that they came filing back on to the coach.

“I thought that was a disgrace. That woman insulted me, and by insulting me she insulted the club. There was no loyalty, no integrity – I felt abandoned.”

President Donald Trump was able to purge his most vocal critics within the Republican Party, as Americans voted for the congressional candidates who will run in November’s midterm elections.

One of the most prominent politicians to be unseated was Representative Thomas Massie, who pushed for the release of the Epstein files.

The Democratic Party partially released a report about performance that noted “a persistent inability or unwillingness to listen to all voters”.

Host Steve Clemons asks former Trump aide Hogan Gidley, and Matt Duss – former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders – about the challenges facing both parties.

President Trump on Thursday announced that grocery stories and air conditioning companies will be allowed to keep using high-polluting refrigerants for longer than they would have under a law he signed during his first administration.

“This was a tremendous burden, a tremendous cost,” said Trump, surrounded in the Oval Office by executives from supermarket chains including Kroger, Fairway, Neimann Foods and Piggly Wiggly. “It was making the equipment unaffordable, and the actual benefit was nothing.”

The move loosens rules meant to restrict hydroflourocarbons, a class of climate-damaging chemicals used in cooling equipment. HFCs are known as “super pollutants” because their impact on climate change can be tens of thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide during their shorter lifespans.

In the move Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency extends the deadline for companies to comply with a 2023 rule transitioning refrigerators and air conditioners off HFCs and onto new cooling technologies. Reducing these chemicals and moving to cleaner refrigerants has long been a bipartisan issue.

Trump is also proposing exemptions from a rule requiring leak repairs on large-scale refrigeration systems.

The administration framed the changes as part of its effort to bring down high grocery costs. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said the actions will save $2.4 billion for Americans and safeguard 350,000 jobs.

“Americans who wanted to be able to fix their equipment were instead being required to buy far more costly new equipment and that just doesn’t make any sense,” said Zeldin.

David Doniger, senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the move will not only harm the climate, but U.S. competitiveness in global refrigerant markets as well.

“The EPA is catering to a small group of straggling companies by derailing the shift away from these climate super-pollutants,” he said. “The industry at large supports the HFC phasedown and has already invested in making new refrigerants and equipment, currently installed in thousands of stores.”

Danielle Wright, executive director of the North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council, an environmental nonprofit, said any perceived near-term savings from the rollbacks will be outweighed by the future costs.

“Business owners are far more worried about the escalating cost of keeping aging, high‑global-warming-potential equipment running than they are about the cost of installing new, compliant systems,” she said.

Trump dismissed the climate concerns, saying his changes “are not going to have any impact on the environment.”

He said he wants to get rid of the technology transition rule entirely in the future.