Ryanair is threatening to withdraw five aircraft and cancel 20 routes
The move could happen as early as this winter(Image: Michael Mulkens via Getty Images)
A major Ryanair move could impact millions of passengers, with 20 routes axed and around 150 jobs lost.
The budget airline could withdraw planes from its Charleroi base as soon as this winter if Belgium goes ahead with plans to double its tax on airline tickets. “But we are not going to completely close the Charleroi base,” said Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary during a press visit to the company’s headquarters in Dublin. The federal government is looking to double the airfare tax on flights exceeding 500 kilometres from next year, pushing it up from 5 to 10 euros.
This would bring the levy in line with that applied to short-haul flights, although the tax on these is also set to rise to 11 euros. Finance Minister Jan Jambon made clear this week that he has no plans to reverse the decision.
As a result, Ryanair would remove five of its 19 aircraft currently operating out of Charleroi from this winter. Twenty routes would be scrapped, 15 at Charleroi and five at Zaventem representing a loss of two million passengers per year, Mr O’Leary confirmed.
Ryanair warns that scaling back its Charleroi operations would also put approximately 150 jobs at risk, though affected pilots and cabin crew, many of whom are foreign nationals, would be offered positions at alternative bases. However, “we want to grow in Belgium,” Mr O’Leary said.
“Ryanair aims to increase passenger numbers from 208 million in 2025 to 300 million in the coming years. We want to achieve some of this growth at Charleroi and Zaventem, but for that to happen, the tax on airline tickets must be eliminated, and airport fees must be reduced.”
According to Ryanair’s chief executive, if the tax on airline tickets is not raised, no aircraft will be withdrawn from Charleroi Airport and the situation will remain unchanged. Should the tax be scrapped entirely, it would open the door to further expansion across Belgium.
Ryanair has put forward a growth strategy projecting almost 50% more passengers in Belgium by 2030, pushing the total to 16 million. The Irish carrier would then reopen its base at Brussels Airport, a hub it continues to operate from but where it no longer stations any aircraft, and would even weigh up flights to and from Liège.
This ambitious expansion plan will only come to fruition, however, if all of Ryanair’s demands are met, most notably a loosening of restrictions on night flights in Brussels. On the flip side, any hike in the airline ticket tax would result in a scaling back of operations.
The closure of the Charleroi base isn’t under consideration, though. “Normally, we would never close Charleroi,” said O’Leary. “We’re not going to threaten to close Charleroi. It’s one of our largest bases, and we’ve invested a lot of time and effort in developing this airport over the last thirty years. But in the long term, we could reduce the base to, say, 10 aircraft.”
O’Leary also touched on the soaring cost of aviation fuel, a result of the conflict in the Middle East. The airline has locked in 80% of its fuel requirements until next March at an average cost of $67 per barrel, while the current rate stands at $100 or above.
“We aren’t hedging for the following period yet, as we anticipate prices falling in the coming months. But we could be wrong. If prices haven’t fallen by September, we’ll start to worry.”
With consumer uncertainty prevailing, O’Leary doesn’t expect any fare rises this summer. “Fares should remain stable. We need to incentivise people to travel by offering slightly lower prices” than the 3% to 5% increase that had been forecast.
The Middle East has been a difficult region to deal with in oil markets. When it comes to energy geographies, the region has proven to be a disproportionately significant part of the world’s energy resources, with export facilities traversing a handful of maritime routes and political situations that have been tense, if not outright volatile, at times. The change in 2025 and into 2026 isn’t the nature of the forces but rather the confluence of overlapping pressures: ongoing sanctions enforcement, multiple theaters of conflict, OPEC+ tensions that are more public than ever in previous years, and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which now seem to have become a semi-permanent part of the shipping route landscape.
There is no background information for commodity traders, market analysts, and energy investors. It’s a real-time, constantly evolving dynamic that can make all the difference in the day-to-day performance of prices, and it’s particularly important when prices are sliding around rapidly, and the stories behind them are changing just as fast.
The Behavior of Prices and the Risk of Middle East Supplies
The area is responsible for about one-third of the world’s crude production. That should make it significant in and of itself. What makes matters worse is that export infrastructure is concentrated in a handful of terminals, pipelines, and maritime corridors where a disproportionately large share of oil is exported. The disruption of any of them (even for a moment) reduces a large supply signal to an extremely short time frame.
Traders who follow crude oil price live data are the first ones to witness this. Real-time feeds are a reflection of more than just the fundamental supply-demand elements, but the market’s real-time assessment of the value of geopolitical risk and how much it “should” be worth at any given moment. A news event, which is a minor detail in a more stable environment, can cause future prices to move $5 or more in less than an hour. The consistent and tough question – and it is a tough one – is, which events actually have physical supply implications and which ones are sentiment-driven moves that die in a session or two?
The Strait of Hormuz
About 20-21 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products go through the Strait of Hormuz, which is about 20% of the world’s oil consumption. No readily available bypasses can be found that can absorb that flow at a similar cost. There are partial alternatives, including the IPSA pipeline and Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, but they would not even come close to filling the deficit should the Hormuz be closed en masse.
It is a strait between Oman and Iran. Geography makes it so that any serious disruption in U.S.-Iran relations or of security conditions in the Gulf in general puts Hormuz back on the market’s agenda. Traders are all familiar with this: when there is a lot of Iranian tension, the futures positioning will always reflect the chokepoint risk, even if there is no incident per se.
Production Outages That Don’t Make the Front Page
The issue of the supply is something that generally doesn’t get the same kind of attention it should get, but the clearest example of this recurring issue is Libya. In recent years, internal political squabbles about how to divide up oil revenues have led to several production shutdowns that have temporarily increased the tightness of the light sweet crude grades refined by European and Asian plants. The disruptions are likely to persist when there is no political agreement, and the pattern is robust. In recent years, Iraq’s export pipeline to the North through Turkey has also been down for extended periods of time. These relatively inconspicuous disruptions can add up and impact medium-term supply dynamics, though not necessarily have the same impact as a more conspicuous incident.
Key Risk Factors Shaping Market Sentiment in 2026
The Middle East is a geopolitical risk that has many variables. It’s a combination of interwoven pressures that work in various ways and to varying effects on the length of the price impact. The issues that currently have the greatest attention of serious analysts are generally of three types:
Export infrastructure and production infrastructure are currently under physical threat to production.
Sanctions regimes and the dynamics of their enforcement.
Disruption of shipping routes and attendant disruption of the trade economics.
Everything is unique, and sometimes they are not in the same direction at the same time. That’s part of what makes the current situation more complicated than any one risk headline implies.
Active Conflict Zones and Exposure to Infrastructure
The latest example of large-scale infrastructure targeting is the 2019 attack on Saudi Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais facilities in the country, which was carried out using drones and missiles. The loss in output occurred temporarily, amounting to about 5.7 million bpd, the largest sudden supply shock in modern oil market history. The recovery was quicker than many expected, partly because of the operational robustness of Aramco and partly because the situation was swiftly contained diplomatically. But the event has permanently changed the way markets view the vulnerability of infrastructure in the Gulf, and that repricing has not been complete.
The Persistent Iranian Supply Question
Iran’s petroleum sales have also been sustained in the face of sanctions, largely via Asian markets out of reach to Western sanctions. A full-fledged deal between Tehran and Western governments has yet to be hammered out, as of early 2026. That has left volumes of Iranian supply in a limbo of sorts: they could be rapidly reduced by stepped-up enforcement, and they could be dramatically increased by a change in diplomatic circumstances. Both of these results can have significant price consequences, and even the uncertainty can be a factor in the market without a clear decision.
Infrastructure Concentration Risk
The concentration levels in Saudi Arabia’s export system warrant a more significant focus than is generally found outside of export specialist circles. Abqaiq processes and stabilizes a huge percentage of Saudi crude before it is shipped to export terminals, removing the sulfur from it. That kind of ‘single point of failure’ is not typical in most industrial supply chains. In the case of oil, it’s a structural aspect of the market and one that has been proven, not just thought.
OPEC+ Internal Dynamics
However, OPEC+ compliance has been quite lackluster at times, notably from Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have had a history of overproduction. This gives rise to an everlasting discrepancy between OPEC+ declarations and the actual supply data. For analysts, the bottom line is that it is important not to take production decisions at face value but to also consider the track record of implementation once a deal has been agreed on to see what the real supply impact was.
Non-State Actor Activity and Shipping Friction
Since late 2023, the Houthis have started to attack commercial shipping vessels in the Red Sea more frequently, and these attacks have persisted through 2025. What those disruptions drove home is that it’s not necessary to blow a wellhead to impact oil market economics. A round-the-Cape voyage will increase the time in transit by about ten to fourteen days, as well as the fuel costs. During periods of increased Houthi activity, insurance costs for tankers traveling in the Gulf area skyrocketed. Both impacts are not a direct factor in the crude benchmarks, but both impact the effective landed cost of Middle East barrels in destination markets.
How the Market Prices Geopolitical Risk
Knowing the difference is important, as geopolitical events do not affect oil prices in a single manner. Some effects are immediate and visible: a surge in the price of Brent futures within minutes of an incident report. Others come more slowly, via changes in freight rates, changes in the repricing of insurance, and changes in buyer behavior, which may take days or weeks to be reflected in trade flow data. The rate of these impacts varies, and so do their effects.
Then there is the issue of what the market “already” had in place whether there was an event or not. When there is a constant regional tension, there is usually some risk premium in prices. The incremental market move may therefore be less than anticipated when an event then reinforces concerns, the surprise element of the event, which is typically the one that produces the biggest market moves, is already discounted.
Risk Premium in Practice
Geopolitical risk premiums in times of heightened Middle East tension have varied from around $4 to $10 per barrel, depending on the market participants’ views on the probability of actual physical supply disruptions in the case of Brent crude, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. That’s a fairly broad window for economic trading, and it has a tendency to close up very fast when the tension subsides and without a supply event, which is the more common scenario.
The geopolitical risk premium factors analysts may consider are:
The nearness to active conflict, producing fields, or the working export terminals.
Production capacity that would be available to make up for the loss of production elsewhere.
The availability and magnitude of the IEA’s strategic stockpiles to be tapped.
Current tanker market conditions and the viability of an alternative route.
Diplomatic messages sent by governments in the area, including the United States and other great powers
Past examples of similar events, which have had identifiable supply impacts.
It is not easy to give exact weights to these inputs. Part of the reason for the price action to seemingly be different with comparable geopolitical events can be due to different analysts forming different conclusions from the same events.
Historical Supply Disruptions and Price Responses
The following table shows some of the more significant supply events that took place in the Middle East and the approximate market impact. The trend of most entries was that the first price movement has been greater than the actual physical supply effect, at times much greater, and then it has partially retraced to a more stable situation.
Event
Year
Estimated Supply Impact
Approximate Brent Price Reaction
Abqaiq/Khurais Attacks (Saudi Arabia)
2019
~5.7 mb/d temporary loss
~15% intraday spike
Libyan Civil War Output Collapse
2011
~1.4 mb/d reduction
~$20/bbl over several weeks
U.S. Re-imposition of Iran Sanctions
2018
~1-1.5 mb/d reduction
~15% sustained over several months
Iraq-Northern Field Disruptions
2014
Partial northern output loss
~$10/bbl elevated premium
Houthi Red Sea Disruptions
2023-24
Rerouting; limited direct supply loss
Moderate – primarily freight cost impact
Iran Sanctions + Red Sea Friction
2025-26
~0.8-1.2 mb/d constrained Iranian output
Persistent $4-8/bbl risk premium in Brent
The 2025-2026 entry is a more diffuse form of market pressure than those acute events listed above. It is not one particular incident, but rather sanctions enforcement and Iranian volumes kept low and shipping activity in the Red Sea continuing to cause friction in the transport system, which has kept transport costs elevated. The World Economic Outlook from the IMF pointed out that this type of persistent supply constraint is likely to have a longer-lasting impact on medium-term price expectations than acute supply shocks, which markets have historically been able to absorb and turn around in relatively short periods of time. Thus, a slow-burning risk premium can be more ‘sticky’ than a dramatic risk premium.
Broader Market Implications
Crude oil benchmarks are not the only place where supply risk from the Middle East exists. It extends out to related markets in ways that are not always apparent when the world’s focus is on the Brent or WTI headline price.
The second-order victim is likely to be refined product markets. In times of crude supply shortages or increased uncertainty, refinery margins and regional product availability may be affected to a greater extent, and the effects on end consumers may be magnified, especially in regions where there is little local refining or a high concentration of import logistics. The energy crisis of 2022 in Europe was a prime example of how the upstream pressure to supply energy flows through the downstream more quickly than most market players would have thought.
Other segments of the market that are impacted by increased supply risks in the Middle East are:
Tanker freight rates, which can also rise sharply without reference to crude prices during times of major-scale rerouting.
In oil-dependent economies, currency markets can be affected by changes in the prices of the oil that the state supplies, which change expectations of fiscal revenue and sovereign credit risk.
LNG markets with some short-term fuel switching demand in the exposed economies as a result of regional geopolitical pressure.
In agricultural commodity markets, where there is known overlap between energy input costs and food production, processing, and transport economics
Strategic Reserve Releases (SRRs) as a Counterweight
During the IEA’s coordinated strategic reserve release in 2022, it was seen that policy tools are in place to mitigate short-term supply shocks and that they can be implemented on a material scale when political conditions are right. However, there are drawbacks to those processes. During that time, reservoir levels were lowered significantly, and a rebuild takes time. There are also doubts about the effectiveness as a deterrent because, over time, markets will factor in the possibility of a release during the next big disruption event, effectively canceling the effect of a release in advance.
Geopolitical Risk Analysis: What It Does and Doesn’t Accomplish
It’s easy to fall into the temptation, because of the amounts of money potentially involved, of viewing geopolitical risk analysis as a predictive tool. It generally lacks it there. It’s actually helpful for comprehending markets and its actions, as well as for charting structural weaknesses that are price-relevant. What it doesn’t do well is tell you when an event will happen, or how big the market’s reaction will be when it does.
Instead of getting lost in qualifications, the specific limitations should be called out:
Escalation and de-escalation are non-linear and unpredictable to a great extent. Conflict situations that appear to be intractable can be solved in a flash, and stable times can fall apart in an instant. Both directions remain silent and don’t herald themselves.
When demand for a commodity is the same, the market price may be quite different in the two market conditions. There are interactions between the geopolitical trigger and positioning, sentiment and open interest that are not modelable in advance.
Secondary effects (such as freight repricing, product supply shifts and insurance cost changes) happen at varying rates to the initial crude price move, and thus the total impact of the market is more difficult to gauge in real time.
Analytical path dependency can occur when geopolitical narratives set up a framework that later information gets filtered through, without being recognized as such.
All this does not negate the analysis. It’s about calibration and about honesty when the power of explanation runs out, and speculation sets in.
Conclusion
Middle East supply risk is not a succession of shocks that will come and go and be completely addressed but rather a structural state in global oil markets. The combination of production weight, geographic concentration of export infrastructure, and political complexity of the region always comes with a certain level of supply uncertainty as a base case. The level of that uncertainty and the extent to which that uncertainty is priced into securities on a given day are what change.
The hard part for traders, analysts, and energy investors is not recognizing that there is risk – that’s obvious. It’s gaining a good enough sense of what matters most at a given moment, what the big picture supply-demand dynamics are, and at what point a careful study of the facts begins to look like well-informed guesswork. The clear understanding of that boundary is, in fact, probably more valuable than any single analytical framework that can be applied to the boundary.
Disclaimer
This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument, commodity, or derivative product. Trading in energy markets, including crude oil futures, CFDs, and related instruments, involves substantial risk of loss, including the possible loss of capital invested. Past market behavior and historical price patterns referenced in this article are not reliable indicators of future performance. Geopolitical developments described may not materialize as anticipated or may evolve in ways that differ materially from historical precedent. Readers should conduct their own independent research and consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions. Nothing in this article should be interpreted as a trading signal, directional market recommendation, or endorsement of any specific trading approach.
Still a town at the time – it wasn’t granted city status until 1992 – Sunderland was a different world to the one in which Gregoire had grown up. Born in 1958 in the Toxteth area of Liverpool to Windrush Generation parents from the Caribbean island of Dominica, he was raised in Bradford, another multi-cultural city.
By contrast, according to the Census figures, barely 1% of a Sunderland population approaching 300,000 in 1981 was of African-Caribbean origin.
A fifth of the League’s 92 clubs had yet to sign a black player by 1978, the year Nottingham Forest’s Viv Anderson became the first to claim a senior England cap.
“I knew only one other black fellow in Sunderland, he was at the polytechnic,” remembers Gregoire. “Wayne Entwistle [a white striker, who signed the same day in a £30,000 deal from Bury] shared digs with me for a while and was a good guy, but it was quite a lonely time.”
Gregoire cites the club’s 1973 FA Cup-winning captain Bobby Kerr and experienced midfielder Mick Docherty as two colleagues who made him feel welcome, in a debut season where he made eight first-team appearances.
But he felt the dressing room attitude towards him change in the summer of 1978, with a couple of notable incidents on a pre-season tour of Kenya.
“After one game, all these children ran on to the pitch and went up to one of our players and gathered round him,” he says. “But when they’d gone he came to me and wiped his hands on my shirt. I thought that was disgusting.
“It was like he thought those children had disease, and wanted to wipe it on me! Why me? Because I’m black, is that why?”
Later, at a post-match reception at the home of a wealthy local white family, the team lined up to meet the hostess.
“She shook the hand of the players on my right, bypassed me, then shook the hand of everyone else,” he says.
“I didn’t waste a second. I just calmly and coolly walked out of the house and on to the team bus. I would rather be out there, with lions and hyenas, than be inside, being insulted like that.
“Not one person came to see how I was, or to offer some comfort. It was only when they’d finished eating and drinking, laughing and joking, that they came filing back on to the coach.
“I thought that was a disgrace. That woman insulted me, and by insulting me she insulted the club. There was no loyalty, no integrity – I felt abandoned.”
President Donald Trump was able to purge his most vocal critics within the Republican Party, as Americans voted for the congressional candidates who will run in November’s midterm elections.
One of the most prominent politicians to be unseated was Representative Thomas Massie, who pushed for the release of the Epstein files.
The Democratic Party partially released a report about performance that noted “a persistent inability or unwillingness to listen to all voters”.
Host Steve Clemons asks former Trump aide Hogan Gidley, and Matt Duss – former adviser to Senator Bernie Sanders – about the challenges facing both parties.
President Trump on Thursday announced that grocery stories and air conditioning companies will be allowed to keep using high-polluting refrigerants for longer than they would have under a law he signed during his first administration.
“This was a tremendous burden, a tremendous cost,” said Trump, surrounded in the Oval Office by executives from supermarket chains including Kroger, Fairway, Neimann Foods and Piggly Wiggly. “It was making the equipment unaffordable, and the actual benefit was nothing.”
The move loosens rules meant to restrict hydroflourocarbons, a class of climate-damaging chemicals used in cooling equipment. HFCs are known as “super pollutants” because their impact on climate change can be tens of thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide during their shorter lifespans.
In the move Thursday, the Environmental Protection Agency extends the deadline for companies to comply with a 2023 rule transitioning refrigerators and air conditioners off HFCs and onto new cooling technologies. Reducing these chemicals and moving to cleaner refrigerants has long been a bipartisan issue.
Trump is also proposing exemptions from a rule requiring leak repairs on large-scale refrigeration systems.
The administration framed the changes as part of its effort to bring down high grocery costs. EPA administrator Lee Zeldin said the actions will save $2.4 billion for Americans and safeguard 350,000 jobs.
“Americans who wanted to be able to fix their equipment were instead being required to buy far more costly new equipment and that just doesn’t make any sense,” said Zeldin.
David Doniger, senior attorney at the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the move will not only harm the climate, but U.S. competitiveness in global refrigerant markets as well.
“The EPA is catering to a small group of straggling companies by derailing the shift away from these climate super-pollutants,” he said. “The industry at large supports the HFC phasedown and has already invested in making new refrigerants and equipment, currently installed in thousands of stores.”
Danielle Wright, executive director of the North American Sustainable Refrigeration Council, an environmental nonprofit, said any perceived near-term savings from the rollbacks will be outweighed by the future costs.
“Business owners are far more worried about the escalating cost of keeping aging, high‑global-warming-potential equipment running than they are about the cost of installing new, compliant systems,” she said.
Trump dismissed the climate concerns, saying his changes “are not going to have any impact on the environment.”
He said he wants to get rid of the technology transition rule entirely in the future.
The killing of Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the recently appointed head of Qassam Brigades, the armed wing of Hamas, has dealt a symbolic blow to the Palestinian group in Gaza, but the impact on its military operations is far from certain.
Al-Haddad was killed on Friday in a sophisticated dual-strike on a residential apartment in Gaza City’s Remal neighbourhood and a vehicle attempting to flee the scene. The delivery of heavy munitions into a densely populated area, packed with displaced civilians, killed seven other Palestinians, including women and children, and wounded 50 people.
Yet, despite Israeli claims that the killing will cripple the group’s operational capacity, analysts argue that its decentralised nature is built to absorb such shocks. As the region watches to see how the resistance faction will respond, al-Haddad’s death raises critical questions about the future of the fragile “ceasefire” and who remains to lead the Qassam Brigades.
Operational impact: Will the Qassam Brigades collapse?
The killings of Qassam Brigades commanders, including Mohammed Deif, Marwan Issa, and Yahya Sinwar’s brother Mohammed, left al-Haddad as the key military figure managing the fight against Israel.
Saeed Ziad, a Palestinian political analyst, told Al Jazeera that while the loss is a “massive symbolic and moral blow” to Palestinians, the immediate operational impact on Hamas’s armed wing will be limited.
“The Qassam Brigades are not built on a hierarchical, sequential structure, but a parallel one,” Ziad explained. “Over the past two decades, Hamas has transitioned into a decentralised guerrilla force. Units operate as isolated, self-sufficient groups with their own logistical supply lines and combat doctrines.”
“If a brigade or battalion loses its commander, the group already knows its mission and has the resources to execute it independently,” he said. Reorganising the Qassam Brigades’ central command to cope with the loss will likely take mere days, not months.
Furthermore, al-Haddad had successfully utilised the October ceasefire with Israel to rebuild the group’s infrastructure. “Over the past 200 days, he reconstructed the resistance’s capabilities – its tunnels, weaponry and combat formations – making it capable of defending itself once again,” Ziad noted.
Who is left in the Hamas military leadership?
Israeli officials have boasted that they are close to dismantling Hamas’s central command, claiming that only two members of the military council before the pre-October 2023 attacks on Israel – Mohammed Awad and Imad Aqel – are alive.
However, analysts point out that Hamas’s military wing, which boasted roughly 50,000 fighters before the war, possesses a deep bench of cadres and a strict protocol for leadership succession that enables it to quickly recover when commanders are killed.
“The resistance typically appoints a first, second, and third deputy for every active commander, from the general commander down to the platoon leaders,” Ziad said. “Filling these voids happens rapidly.”
Hamas immediately confirmed Haddad’s death, with spokesperson Hazem Qassem officially mourning him as the “General Commander” of the Qassam Brigades. He stressed that despite his death being a “massive loss”, the group’s “long journey of resistance continues”.
The ‘Ghost’ of the Qassam Brigades
Born in the early 1970s, al-Haddad joined Hamas upon its inception in 1987. He rose through the ranks from an infantry soldier to commander of the group’s Gaza City Brigade, overseeing six battalions – each consisting of 1,000 fighters plus 4,000 support personnel.
He played a foundational role in establishing al-Majd – Hamas’s internal security apparatus designed to track down Israeli intelligence collaborators. But it was his ability to survive multiple assassination attempts – including bombings of his home in 2009, 2012, 2021, and three separate times during the current genocidal war on Gaza – that earned him the moniker “Ghost”.
Al-Haddad left an indelible strategic mark on the movement as a primary architect of the October 7, 2023 attacks. He personally oversaw the breach of the eastern fence, directed elite units that stormed the Re’im military base and the Fajja outpost. According to intelligence reports, it was al-Haddad who handed localised commanders a paper hours before the attack detailing the operation and ordering the capture of Israeli soldiers.
In January 2025, an Israeli air raid killed his son, Suhaib, but al-Haddad survived and continued to command operations and oversee the detention of Israeli captives until a deal was reached.
A fragile ‘ceasefire’ on the brink
Shortly after Friday’s strike, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Israel Katz issued a rare joint statement, boasting that the killing was carried out under their direct orders.
Mohannad Mustafa, an analyst of Israeli affairs, said al-Haddad’s killing shows that Israel is attempting to “normalise” blatant violations of the “ceasefire” agreement, while the Netanyahu-Katz statement was an appeal to Washington to allow it to continue the killing campaign. At least 871 Palestinians have been killed since the “ceasefire” was announced on October 10, 2025, most of them civilians.
“Netanyahu is pitching this to the US administration as a necessary step to ‘disarm Hamas’ under the Trump plan,” Mustafa told Al Jazeera. “But the reality is that Israel never wanted this ceasefire. It was imposed on them.”
By systematically killing civilians, police, and military figures without offering immediate justifications for “ceasefire” breaches, Israel aims to provoke a response. “The ultimate goal is to force Hamas to retaliate, leading to the collapse of the agreement and giving Israel the green light to launch ‘Gideon 2’ – a military operation to occupy the entirety of the Gaza Strip,” Mustafa added.
With Netanyahu lacking a definitive strategic victory, such as the total surrender of Hamas, Ziad said the Israeli leadership is now leaning heavily on a “philosophy of assassinations” to project a “picture of victory” to its domestic base.
But history has shown that killings of leading military figures, such as al-Haddad, rarely have a significant long-term impact on armed Palestinian movements like Hamas.
“For the fighters and the society in Gaza, these killings create a blood covenant,” Ziad said. “It hardens their resolve. Retreating after the loss of leaders like Deif, Sinwar, or Haddad is viewed as a betrayal of that blood.”
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Five nations are boycotting Eurovision, citing Israel’s participation. Their action is against Israel’s war in Gaza and allegations of vote manipulation in the song contest.
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Presenter: Folly Bah Thibault
Guests:
Steve Wall – Musician, actor and member of the Ireland Palestine Solidarity Campaign
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It has not been a straightforward two seasons in English football for the forward.
He joined the East Yorkshire club from Portuguese outfit Farense in August 2024 and enjoyed a decent start only for an anterior cruciate ligament injury at Oxford in November to end his season.
By the time he returned to action last August the club had sacked both Tim Walter and his replacement Ruben Selles and brought in Jakirovic.
Understandably after such a serious injury it took him time to get back up to speed and two hamstring injuries have kept him out for four months of this campaign.
He started Friday’s goalless first leg and hit the post after just two minutes but Jakirovic said he began Monday’s game on the bench as he had not been able to train since.
“He was very tired and had fatigue in both his hamstrings and Achilles so the plan was to give him the second half,” Jakirovic told BBC Radio Humberside.
“It was a great substitution and a great decision. Now I am very smart, if they do nothing I am stupid. It’s always like this.
“This group of players is unbelievable with the chemistry between them.”
Skipper Lewie Coyle was also full of praise for the match-winner and the club’s medical staff.
“He’s incredible. We are so lucky that we’ve got so many players that can come on and impact the game,” he said.
“We all know what that boy’s about. I’m so pleased for him.
“He’s had an incredibly tough injury but it says a lot about him and the recovery team that he’s come back as he has.”
The airline sector is currently navigating a distinct performance gap as the slump in Spirit Airlines (FLYYQ) shares sparked by the company’s Saturday announcement of an immediate, orderly wind-down prompts a wider industry reassessment within the Quant rating framework.
Tehran, Iran – Iran’s national currency has plunged to new lows as authorities mobilise to dampen the impact of the naval blockade enforced by the United States.
The Iranian rial shot above 1.81 million to the US dollar on the open market by early afternoon on Wednesday before partially recovering. The embattled currency changed hands for about 1.54 million earlier this week, and its rate was about 811,000 per US dollar a year ago.
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The rial had remained relatively stable over the past two months after experiencing an earlier drop as US forces amassed in the lead-up to the US-Israeli war on Iran, which began at the end of February.
The latest freefall follows on from unchecked inflation, which has been increasingly plaguing the Iranian economy as a result of mismanagement and sanctions, and continues to ravage households. Washington now has three aircraft carriers in the region and is bringing in more troops and equipment as Israel expresses readiness to restart fighting, three weeks after a ceasefire began.
Iran’s authorities this week projected a hardened stance on negotiations with Washington, and pledged to fight the naval blockade of Iran’s southern waters, which the US Central Command insisted on Tuesday had “cut off economic trade going into and coming out of” the country.
Amid threats by US President Donald Trump, the Iranian government has also tried to empower its own border provinces to import essential goods by reducing red tape. It has also allocated $1bn from the sovereign wealth fund to buy food, and made a partial policy U-turn to restart offering a preferential subsidised exchange rate with the goal of reducing prices, despite concerns about corruption.
Non-oil trade takes hit
According to customs data released by state media, Iran’s non-oil trade has been negatively affected after commercial ties were disrupted or cut off as a result of the war, and critical infrastructure was bombed.
Iran’s customs authority put the total value of non-oil trade in the Iranian calendar year that ended on March 20 at close to $110bn, with $58bn going to imports. The figure was about 16 percent lower than the year before.
The volume of non-oil trade was valued at approximately $9bn for the 11th month of the calendar year ending on February 19, and $6.46bn in the final month, indicating a drop of about 29 percent in connection with the war, which started on February 28. The final month was also about 50 percent lower than the more than $13bn estimated value for last year’s corresponding month.
Part of the drop is linked with the fact that shipping has been significantly disrupted through the Strait of Hormuz as Iran and the US spar over control of the strategic waterway. The US and Israel also directed some of their thousands of strikes against ports, naval facilities, airports, and railway networks across the country.
Iran’s top steel and petrochemical producers were also extensively bombed, as were oil and gas facilities, power stations, and major industrial zones. The US and Israel have threatened to take Iran “back to the Stone Age” through systematic bombing of civilian infrastructure like power plants.
To manage the impact and preserve domestic supply, Iranian authorities have imposed temporary restrictions on exports of steel, petrochemicals, polymers and other chemicals.
Oil exports in the crosshairs
The US is using its military capabilities and economic chokeholds to drive down Iran’s oil exports, a goal that it has also pursued over recent years through sanctions.
Since mid-April, the US military has been deploying its soldiers to take over or inspect ships transiting through waterways near Iran, in addition to targeting what is known as a shadow fleet of tankers used by Iran to circumvent sanctions and ship its oil.
Warships and thousands of troops could still launch a ground invasion or destructive aerial attacks against Iran’s Kharg and other critical islands, and the Trump administration expects increased pressure on Iran’s oil sector due to hampered access to export routes and supertankers keeping the oil stored on the water.
The US Treasury has been blacklisting refineries in China, the biggest buyers of Iranian crude oil, and going after the banking and cryptocurrency channels alleged to be facilitating Tehran’s oil trade, and having links to the IRGC – which Washington considers a “terrorist” organisation.
“We will follow the money that Tehran is desperately attempting to move outside of the country and target all financial lifelines tied to the regime,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on social media.
Chinese refineries buy roughly 90 percent of Iran’s oil shipments, and imported a record 1.8 million barrels per day in March, according to Vortexa Analytics data cited by the Reuters news agency, which also said purchases were expected to slow due to worsening domestic refining and processing margins.
According to figures released by the General Administration of Customs of China, the volume of the country’s bilateral trade with Iran during the first quarter of 2026 stood at $1.55bn, down 50 percent year-on-year.
In March, the first month of the war, trade stood at $184m, which was nearly 80 percent lower than the year before and 64 percent lower than the month before. China’s imports from Iran and exports to the country were both considerably reduced as a result of the war.
The removal of the United Arab Emirates as a major trade partner and import market for Iran has also significantly affected the country’s economy, increasing its reliance on land neighbours like Turkiye and Iraq to the west and Pakistan to the east.
The UAE, a big part of the Trump-led Abraham Accords that saw multiple countries normalise relations with Israel, was heavily targeted by ballistic missiles and drones launched by Iran.
The UAE has closed down numerous Iranian institutions on its soil over the past two months, including financial facilitators, instructed Iranian citizens to leave, and has said it will take years to restore bilateral relations to previous levels.
Former USC and Georgia receiver Zachariah Branch was arrested early Sunday in Athens, Ga., for not moving far enough on a public sidewalk when a police officer asked him to do so.
Branch, widely projected to go in the second round of the NFL draft later this week, faces misdemeanor charges of obstructing public sidewalks, prowling and obstructing a law enforcement officer. According to a police report, he was booked at 1:26 a.m. and released at 3:44 a.m. after posting a $39 bond.
Branch, who led the Southeastern Conference and set a Georgia record with 81 receptions in 2025, was in Athens for Georgia’s spring game on Saturday. He transferred to Georgia after two seasons at USC, where he had 78 catches for 823 yards. He also was a first-team All-American kick returner as a freshman.
“A male, later identified as Zacharia [sic] Branch, continued to stand on the sidewalk without making an attempt to move. I continued to give Zacharia Branch verbal commands to move from blocking the sidewalk and advised that if he did not, he would receive a citation for blocking the sidewalk.
“Zacharia Branch smirked, then stepped backwards and to the right, then remained standing upon the public sidewalk, so as to obstruct, hinder, and impede free passage upon the sidewalk as well as impede free ingress/egress to or from the adjacent places of business.
“Due to those actions and Zacharia Branch’s failure to comply with multiple verbal lawful commands, he was placed under arrest for misdemeanor Obstruction of LEO and received a citation for Obstructing Public Sidewalks.”
Branch, 22, declared for the draft one year after transferring from USC along with his twin, Zion, who plays safety for Georgia. Branch was ranked as the nation’s No. 1 wide receiver out of Las Vegas Bishop Gorman High and considered a landmark recruiting win for USC coach Lincoln Riley.
Branch, a grand nephew of former Raiders great and Hall of Fame receiver Cliff Branch, established himself quickly with the Trojans, returning a kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown in his debut against San Jose State in 2023. He also caught a touchdown pass in the game while accumulating 232 all-purpose yards.
In a Times story in 2023, Branch was lauded by teammates “for his ever-present smile and easy-going nature.”
“I just love the energy every day, it brings a smile to my face,” USC guard Justin Dedich said at the time. “That’s just one of those things. It just shows on the field. It correlates, just his positive energy, his positive attitude and he plays like a beast.”
The timing of the arrest isn’t ideal: The NFL draft begins Thursday. The relatively innocuous nature of the incident shouldn’t greatly impact Branch’s draft status, according to team personnel executives interviewed by NFL Network.
Cue the social media jokes about Branch increasing his draft status because he demonstrated his ability to block …. even if it was a sidewalk.
“‘Willing and eager blocker’ always a good note on a WR’s draft profile,” one person posted.
Others pointed out that ignoring instructions from a police officer at 2 a.m. is an indication of poor judgment.
“Zero self awareness putting yourself in this position a few days before the draft,” a person posted.
He was asked if now is a good time to open an ISA or not
Martin Lewis shared some tips on his BBC podcast(Image: ITV)
Martin Lewis has offered some advice on how you could organise your savings. He explained the practical tip amid the current uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of the Iran conflict.
The major war has already triggered a surge in oil prices, with fears of long-term consequences for food production and global economic growth.
Mr Lewis was questioned on his BBC podcast about whether now is an opportune moment to open a stocks and shares ISA, given that markets are struggling. When share prices fall, it can present a prime opportunity to invest, as your funds could increase in value when the market bounces back. But if prices decline further, the worth of your holdings could also drop. In response, Mr Lewis outlined the general principle to bear in mind.
He said: “If you’re talking about investing for a long term money that you don’t need for five years and you’re going to do that in a nice spread of investments, like a global tracker fund or an S&P tracker or FTSE tracker, then you just have to accept that you will never know when the perfect time to put money in is.”
£1,000 savings tactic
Nevertheless, he did reveal one strategy you could use to reduce the risk posed by market volatility. Mr Lewis said: “Let’s just imagine you’re putting £10,000 in a stocks and shares ISA, and you’re putting it away for a long time.
“You could put £10,000 in now but you could arrange with the provider that it sits in its cash part. You can hold it in cash, within a stocks and shares ISA, for the moment.
“You could say I’ve got £10,000, over the next 10 months, I’d like you to buy £1,000 a month of that tracker fund that I’m putting my investment into. It’s called pound-cost averaging.
“Because you’re drip feeding the money in, that helps smooth out the short-term volatility of buying at the right moment. So if you’re worried about that volatility, you might want to adopt that tactic.”
Mr Lewis continued in saying that in reality nobody can predict the optimal time to invest. He said: “They are unknowable in the short term, but in a broad spread of investment over the long term, on the balance of probabilities, investing will outperform saving.
“So don’t let the volatility put you off, but you might want to spread the time that you’re putting the money in.”
Major changes to ISA allowances
Savers may also want to note that major changes to ISA allowances are on the horizon. Currently, you can deposit up to £20,000 each tax year, which can be divided as you wish between cash ISAs and stocks and shares ISAs.
From April 2027, you will only be permitted to save up to £12,000 as you choose. The remaining £8,000 will only be available for deposits into investment-based accounts.
Savers aged 65 and over will be exempt from the new regulations, retaining the existing £20,000 allowance. ISAs are entirely tax-free, with no tax liability on any interest earnings or investment gains within these accounts.
All this comes as Trump has been telling media outlets that he believes the war could soon end. We’ll talk more about that later in this story.
“China is very happy that I am permanently opening the Strait of Hormuz,” the American leader proclaimed on Truth Social, even as the flow of oil from the Middle East has been drastically reduced by the war. “I am doing it for them, also – And the World. This situation will never happen again. They have agreed not to send weapons to Iran.”
“President Xi will give me a big, fat, hug when I get there in a few weeks,” he added. “We are working together smartly, and very well! Doesn’t that beat fighting??? BUT REMEMBER, we are very good at fighting, if we have to – far better than anyone else!!!”
In a pre-taped interview that aired Wednesday morning, Trump told Fox News that the war hasn’t soured his relationship with Xi, who has expressed frustration with American actions in the Middle East.
“I don’t think it does,” Trump told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo. “He’s somebody that needs oil. We don’t. He’s somebody I get along with very well. He just wrote me a beautiful letter…He responded to a letter that I wrote because I had heard that China is giving weapons to – I mean, you’re seeing it all over the place – to Iran…I wrote him a letter asking him not to do that, and he wrote me a letter saying that essentially he’s not doing that.”
Trump:
I wrote a letter to Xi. I asked him not to give Iran weapons. He wrote me a letter, and he is saying that he is essentially not doing that. pic.twitter.com/yrTT9Dwi2V
Before his Truth Social Post and the Fox interview aired, Financial Times reported that Iran “secretly acquired a Chinese spy satellite that gave the Islamic republic a powerful new capability to target US military bases across the Middle East during the recent war.”
“Leaked Iranian military documents show the satellite, known as TEE-01B, was acquired by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force in late 2024 after it was launched into space from China,” according to the outlet. “Time-stamped coordinate lists, satellite imagery and orbital analysis show that Iranian military commanders later tasked the satellite to monitor key US military sites. The images were taken in March before and after drone and missile strikes on those locations.”
Meanwhile, China continues to push back against accusations that it is helping Iran and repeated previous assertions that it will respond should Trump go through with his threat to impose a 50% tariff.
“Media reports accusing China of providing military support to Iran are purely fabricated,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian stated on X. “If the U.S. goes ahead with tariff hikes on China on the basis of these accusations, China will respond with countermeasures.”
Lin did not offer details about those countermeasures.
Media reports accusing China of providing military support to Iran are purely fabricated.
If the U.S. goes ahead with tariff hikes on China on the basis of these accusations, China will respond with countermeasures. pic.twitter.com/QwETjpJEyY
Regardless, Iran’s use of commercial space imagery to strike U.S. and allied targets “will force the Pentagon to adjust, the head of U.S. Space Command said,” according to Defense One.
“We have to recognize that the rest of the world can now see the entire planet transparently and almost 24/7 and so we have to be able to operate in that environment successfully,” Gen. Stephen Whiting, the head of U.S. Space Command told reporters Tuesday during the Space Symposium conference.
UPDATES
UPDATE: 2:24 PM EDT –
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt denied the U.S. requested an extention to the ceasefire.
‘I saw some reporting that we had formally requested an extension of this ceasefire. That is not true. We remain engaged in these negotiations.’
She also thanked Pakistan for its help in the negotiations.
PRESS SEC on U.S.-Iran negotiations: The Pakistanis have been incredible mediators and we really appreciate their friendship and efforts to bring this deal to a close.
The President feels it’s important to continue to streamline this communication through the Pakistanis. pic.twitter.com/3iIeF0oUpn
Trump, as we noted earlier, is saying that he believes the war could soon be concluded.
“I think it’s close to over,” Trump posited. “I mean, I view it as very close to over. You know what? If I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 20 years to rebuild that country. And we’re not finished. We’ll see what happens. I think they want to make a deal very badly.”
When asked by Sky whether a deal could happen before King Charles visits the U.S. at the end of the month, Trump said: “It’s possible. Very possible. They’re beaten up pretty bad.”
U.S. and Iranian negotiators made progress in talks on Tuesday, moving closer to a framework agreement to end the war, two U.S. officials said, Axios reported on Wednesday.
“U.S. officials and sources familiar with the mediation cautioned that a deal is not guaranteed, given the substantial differences between the two sides,” the news outlet noted.
“Let’s wait and see if we can get a deal. We are hopeful and accordingly trying to push with both sides,” a Pakistani official told Axios.
“U.S. officials and sources familiar with the mediation cautioned that a deal is not guaranteed, given the substantial differences between the two sides.”
“We want to make a deal. And parts of their government want to make a deal. Now the trick is to get the whole of government…
In another step toward potential future negotiations, Pakistan’s Army Chief of Staff Asim Munir arrived in Tehran today for talks.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said that during the visit, “the views of both sides are likely to be discussed in detail.”
Iran’s Foreign Minister Spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, confirms that a high-ranking Pakistani delegation will visit Tehran today to follow up on talks with the U.S. in Islamabad. “During this visit, the views of both sides are likely to be discussed in detail,” Baghaei said. pic.twitter.com/bdMnyCKUA5
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) April 15, 2026
Baghaei, however, said Iran would not capitulate.
“If a negotiation is based on one side imposing conditions on the other, that is not negotiation; it is dictation and imposition, and you know that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian nation will never accept such imposition,” he stated.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson:
If a negotiation is based on one side imposing conditions on the other, that is not negotiation; it is dictation and imposition, and you know that the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iranian nation will never accept such imposition. pic.twitter.com/lnKeJT9Pow
In an X post, CENTCOM on Wednesday said that during “the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area.”
During the first 48 hours of the U.S. blockade on ships entering and exiting Iranian ports, no vessels have made it past U.S. forces. Additionally, 9 vessels have complied with direction from U.S. forces to turn around and return toward an Iranian port or coastal area. pic.twitter.com/h4msgvaPTl
Late Tuesday night, Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM, took to X to announce that the “blockade of Iranian ports has been fully implemented as U.S. forces maintain maritime superiority in the Middle East.”
“An estimated 90% of Iran’s economy is fueled by international trade by sea,” Cooper noted. “In less than 36 hours since the blockade was implemented, U.S. forces have completely halted economic trade going into and out of Iran by sea.”
Senior IRGC commander Maj. Gen. Ali Abdollahi claimed the Islamic Republic would consider it a prelude to the breach of the ceasefire if “the aggressive and terrorist America” continues the blockade.
Abdollahi “threatened that the powerful Iranian armed forces would not allow any export and import to keep going in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea region, in the face of the US maritime aggression,” the official Iranian IRNA news agency stated on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the Malta-flagged VLCC Agios Fanourios I became the first crude carrier to head west through the Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force, according to MarineTraffic.
First crude carrier heads west through Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade
The Malta-flagged VLCC Agios Fanourios I has become the first crude carrier to head west through the Strait of Hormuz since the US blockade on Iran’s ports came into force. According to #MarineTraffic… pic.twitter.com/K8syfSZtFL
Though another round of peace talks between the U.S. and Iran is being discussed, the Pentagon continues to pour resources into the Middle East, something we have been reporting about for weeks.
“The forces moving into the region include about 6,000 troops aboard the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush and several warships escorting it, said current and former officials,” according to The Washington Post, citing anonymous officials. “About 4,200 others with the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and its embarked Marine Corps task force, the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, are expected to arrive near the end of the month.”
The Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Mitchell Mason) Petty Officer 2nd Class Mitchell MasonA stock picture of the Wasp class amphibious assault ship USS Boxer. USN
During the pause in fighting, Iran appears to be using the time to reopen entrances to underground missile cities damaged during the war, according to CNN. The network published footage showing engineering equipment at the Tabriz South missile base and the Khomein missile bases.
The network also noted that, according to U.S. intelligence estimates, about half of the Iranian missile launchers remained intact after a month of fighting, and that many of these launchers could have been buried in underground storage facilities as a result of strikes on the entrances.
CNN published footage showing engineering equipment making use of the ceasefire to reopen the entrances to underground facilities at missile bases that were damaged during the war.
The sites documented include the Tabriz South missile base and the Khomein missile base.
A day after negotiations took place in Washington between the U.S., Israel and Lebanon, Hezbollah issued a veiled threat to Beirut. Considered a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Israel, Hezbollah was not a party to the talks.
“The Lebanese authorities must reconsider their actions and return to the embrace of the people,” said Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah in a statement. “The authorities withdrew the army from the south, leaving it vulnerable to occupation and giving the enemy [Israel] free rein.”
Meanwhile, Israel is continuing to bombard Hezbollah.
“In the past 24 hours, the IDF struck over 200 Hezbollah terror infrastructure sites in southern Lebanon,” it claimed. “Among the targets struck: terrorists, military structures, approximately 20 launchers, including those recently used to fire towards the State of Israel.”
ביממה האחרונה הותקפו יותר מ-200 מטרות של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה בדרום לבנון. בין התשתיות שהותקפו: מחבלים, מבנים צבאיים וכ-20 משגרים, בהם משגרים ששיגרו לעבר שטח הארץ והושמדו בסגירות מעגל מהירות. pic.twitter.com/LeR2mr37Vv
