Government

Bangladesh’s leading political candidates have voted in a closely contested general election in Dhaka, pitting the Bangladesh Nationalist Party against a Jamaat-e-Islami-led coalition. It’s the country’s first election since the 2024 ousting of long‑time premier Sheikh Hasina in a Gen Z-led uprising.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year outlook projects worsening long-term United States federal deficits and rising debt, driven largely by increased spending, notably on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments.

Compared with the CBO’s analysis this time last year, the fiscal outlook, which was released on Wednesday, has deteriorated modestly.

The CBO said that the deficit for fiscal 2026 – President Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year in office – will be about 5.8 percent of GDP, about where it was in fiscal 2025, when the deficit was $1.775 trillion.

But the US deficit-to-GDP ratio will average 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in fiscal 2036 – far above US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal to shrink it to about 3 percent of economic output.

Major developments over the last year are factored into the latest report, including Republicans’ tax and spending measure known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” higher tariffs, and the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, which includes deporting millions of immigrants from the US mainland.

As a result of these changes, the projected 2026 deficit is about $100bn higher, and total deficits from 2026 to 2035 are $1.4 trillion larger, while debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101 percent of GDP to 120 percent — exceeding historical highs.

Notably, the CBO says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.

Rising debt and debt service are important because repaying investors for borrowed money crowds out government spending on basic needs such as roads, infrastructure and education, which enable investments in future economic growth.

CBO projections also indicate that inflation does not hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate until 2030.

A major difference is that the CBO forecasts rely on significantly lower economic growth projections than the Trump administration, pegging 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2 percent on a fourth-quarter comparison basis, fading to an average of about 1.8 percent for the rest of the decade.

Trump administration officials in recent weeks have projected robust growth in the 3-4 percent range for 2026, with recent predictions that first-quarter growth could top 6 percent amid rising investments in factories and artificial intelligence data centres.

CBO’s forecasts assume that tax and spending laws and tariff policies in early December remain in place for a decade. The government’s fiscal year starts on October 1.

While revived investment tax incentives and bigger individual tax refunds provide a boost in 2026, the CBO said that this is attenuated by the drag from larger fiscal deficits and reduced immigration that slows the growth of the labour force.

Jonathan Burks, executive vice president of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center said “large deficits are unprecedented for a growing, peacetime economy”, though “the good news is there is still time for policymakers to correct course.”

‘Urgent warning’

Lawmakers have recently addressed rising federal debt and deficits primarily through targeted spending caps and debt limit suspensions, as well as deploying “extraordinary measures” when the US is close to hitting its statutory spending limit, though these measures have often been accompanied by new, large-scale spending or tax policies that maintain high deficit levels.

And Trump, at the start of his second term, deployed a new “Department of Government Efficiency”, which set a goal to balance the budget by cutting $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse; however, budget analysts estimate that DOGE cut anywhere between $1.4bn to $7bn, largely through workforce firings.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said the CBO’s latest budget projection “is an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”

“This election year, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition. And the financial markets are watching. Stabilising our debt is an essential part of improving affordability, and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.”

The administration of United States President Donald Trump has sanctioned two leaders of Pacific island nations for alleged corruption, accusing them both of creating openings for China to increase its influence in the region.

On Tuesday, the US Department of State issued a notice alleging that the president of Palau’s Senate, Hokkons Baules, and a former mayor in the Marshall Islands, Anderson Jibas, had engaged in “significant corruption”.

Neither they nor their families will henceforth be allowed to enter the US, according to the statement.

“The Trump Administration will not allow foreign public officials to steal from U.S. taxpayers or threaten U.S. interests,” State Department spokesperson Tommy Pigott wrote on social media.

The State Department’s Bureau of International Narcotics and Law Enforcement (INL) also posted its support for the sanctions.

“Corruption that hurts U.S. interests will be met with significant consequences,” it said.

In both cases, the US credited the politicians’ actions with allowing the expansion of Chinese interests in the Pacific region.

The State Department alleged that Baules took bribes in exchange for supporting Chinese interests in Palau, an island in Micronesia that is the 16th smallest country in the world.

“His actions constituted significant corruption and adversely affected U.S. interests in Palau,” the US said in its statement.

Jibas, meanwhile, stands accused of “orchestrating and financially benefitting from” schemes to misuse the Bikini Resettlement Trust, a US-backed fund designed to compensate those negatively affected by nuclear bomb testing on the Bikini Atoll, part of the Marshall Islands.

The trust was worth nearly $59m in 2017, when the first Trump administration decided to hand control of the main resettlement fund to local authorities and relinquish its authority to audit.

Since then, the fund has emptied precipitously. As of February 2023, the trust had plummeted to a mere $100,000, and payments to Bikini Atoll survivors and descendants have ceased.

Critics have blamed Jibas, who was elected in 2016 to lead the Kili, Bikini and Ejit islands as mayor. He campaigned on having more local autonomy over the fund.

But reports in The Wall Street Journal and other news outlets accused him of misappropriating the funds for purchases including vacations, travel and a new pick-up truck.

In Tuesday’s announcement, the State Department connected Jibas’s alleged abuse to the spread of Chinese power in the Pacific and an increase in immigration to the US, two key issues in Trump’s platform.

“The theft, misuse, and abuse of the U.S.-provided money for the fund wasted U.S. taxpayer money and contributed to a loss of jobs, food insecurity, migration to the United States,” the department wrote.

“The lack of accountability for Jibas’ acts of corruption has eroded public trust in the government of the Marshall Islands, creating an opportunity for malign foreign influence from China and others.”

Both Palau and the Marshall Islands were US territories, occupied during World War II and granted independence in the late 20th century.

They both continue to be part of a Compact of Free Association with the US, which allows the North American superpower to continue military operations in the area and control the region’s defence.

They are also part of a dwindling list of countries that maintain diplomatic relations with Taiwan’s government, much to the ire of the People’s Republic of China.

Only about a dozen remain, and they are largely concentrated in Central America, the Caribbean or the Pacific islands.

But China has sought to pressure those smaller countries into rupturing their ties with Taiwan and recognising its government in Beijing instead.

The Asian superpower – often seen as a rival to the US – has also attempted to expand its sphere of influence to the southern Pacific, by building trade relations and countering US military authority in the area.

Baules, for example, is among the local politicians who have advocated for recognising Beijing’s government over Taipei’s, and he is a vocal proponent for increased ties with China.

Those shifting views have placed island nations like Palau and the Marshall Islands in the midst of a geopolitical tug-of-war, as the US struggles with China to maintain dominance in the region.

In other parts of the world, the US has also used sanctions to dissuade local officials from seeking closer ties with China.

Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino, for instance, has accused the US embassy in his country of threatening to strip local officials of their visas, as the US and China jockey for influence over the Panama Canal.

Similar reports have emerged in neighbouring Costa Rica, where officials like lawmaker Vanessa Castro and former President Oscar Arias have accused the US of revoking their visas over ties to China.

But there have been other points of tension between the Pacific Islands and the US in recent years.

The Trump administration has withdrawn from accords designed to limit climate change and quashed international efforts to reduce emissions, straining ties with the islands, which are vulnerable to rising sea levels.

Still, the US State Department framed the sanctions on Tuesday as an effort to ensure local accountability and defend US interests in the region.

“The United States will continue to promote accountability for those who abuse public power for personal gain and steal from our citizens to enrich themselves,” it said.

“These designations reaffirm the United States’ commitment to countering global corruption affecting U.S. interests.”

Venezuela’s National Assembly President Jorge Rodriguez has said that the country will not hold presidential elections in the immediate future, emphasising that the government’s current focus is on national stability.

His comments came late on Monday in an interview published with the conservative outlet Newsmax in the United States.

Presidential terms run for six years in Venezuela, and the last election was controversially held in 2024. Newsmax host Rob Schmitt asked if that meant another election would not happen for another five years.

“The only thing I could say is that there will not be an election in this immediate period of time where the stabilisation has to be achieved,” Rodriguez replied.

He explained that the decision is tied to a wider effort to rebuild and strengthen Venezuela’s state institutions.

“What we’re working on at the moment is what we call the re-institutionalisation of the country, so that every single institution of the country can again be brought to full power and full recognition by everybody,” he said.

Rodriguez, who has led the National Assembly since 2021, added that Venezuelans are seeking a return to normalcy following the abduction of President Nicolas Maduro.

“The government of Delcy Rodriguez is actually looking for that, to stabilise the country completely and to make it all good and reconcile everybody, all the population of Venezuela,” he said.

The US abducted Maduro in a military action on January 3. In the weeks since, the Venezuelan Supreme Court has appointed Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, the National Assembly leader’s sister, as acting president.

She was formally sworn in on January 5, with support from both Venezuela’s military and the governing party, as well as the US.

Jorge Rodriguez told Newsmax that the current government would need to “reach an agreement with all sectors of the opposition” to create a “timetable” for new elections.

Amnesty law

Maduro’s abduction had initially inspired hope that a new election would be carried out after the controversy that accompanied the 2024 presidential race.

In that election, Maduro controversially claimed victory for a third straight term, despite the opposition publishing voter tallies that appeared to show its candidate won.

Protests broke out, and Maduro’s government responded with a violent crackdown. An estimated 25 people were killed, according to the US State Department.

In Monday’s interview, Rodriguez rejected the assertion that the 2024 race was not legitimate. Instead, he emphasised his push for national unity, saying, “We have been divided for a very long time.”

He highlighted the legislature’s efforts to pass a mass amnesty law, which would result in the release of all political prisoners and forgive any crimes related to political dissent since 1999.

The bill was approved unanimously in the first of two votes on Thursday and is expected to pass this week.

Still, questions have surrounded the bill. Critics fear that political repression could take other forms after the prisoners’ release.

Schmitt asked whether opposition leader Maria Corina Machado would be able to return to Venezuela and campaign freely in a future election, following the bill’s passage.

“So, allow me not to speak about only one single name, because there are many, many actors abroad that have to be included in this discussion,” Rodriguez responded.

“There is an amnesty law that is being done at the moment that contemplates working with people, but there are sectors of the opposition abroad which have promoted violence.”

He then indicated that the amnesty bill would not apply to the opposition leaders accused of violent crimes.

“Through this amnesty law, we are promoting for all the sections of the opposition who are abroad to comply with the law, so they can come back to the country,” Rodriguez said.

Opposition leaders, however, have long alleged that the government has peddled false accusations of violent crime to arrest and jail them.

Machado herself was accused of conspiring to assassinate Maduro in 2014, leading to her expulsion from the National Assembly.

Rodriguez’s comments also come amid developments in the case of former lawmaker Juan Pablo Guanipa.

The leader was released on Sunday after spending more than eight months in pretrial detention, but he was rearrested less than 12 hours later, after speaking with the media and supporters.

According to his family, he was detained by armed men without identification or a court order. His son, Ramon Guanipa, described the incident as an “abduction”.

Officials later stated that they had requested the revocation of his release order, citing his alleged failure to comply with the conditions imposed upon his release.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Guanipa was transferred to his residence in Maracaibo, where he remains under house arrest.

Machado condemned the actions, stating that Guanipa’s case demonstrates that the releases announced by the government do not guarantee the full exercise of political and civil rights.

“What was Juan Pablo’s crime? Telling the truth. So are these releases, or what are they?” Machado said on Monday.

She proceeded to question whether the released prisoners were truly free from what she described as the repressive machinery of the Venezuelan government.

“Can’t we talk in Venezuela about those who have been in prison? Can’t we recount what they have experienced? Can’t we describe the horror of what is happening in our country today?”