front

The Houthis and the Rise of Asymmetric Strategy: War is No Longer the Monopoly of States

The Houthi attack on merchant ships in the Red Sea shows that asymmetric strategies have become one of the most disruptive forces in international security, often more effective than conventional state military power. The operations of these non-state groups not only disrupt global trade routes but also expose fundamental weaknesses in the international maritime security architecture. This phenomenon marks a major shift in the character of modern conflict: war is no longer the monopoly of states, and non-state actors are now capable of altering global strategic calculations at a much lower cost. This article argues that the Houthi operations reflect the failure of the traditional security paradigm and underscore the urgency of understanding irregular threats as a determining factor in contemporary geopolitical dynamics.

The Houthis’ success is rooted in the use of asymmetric strategies that combine low cost, high flexibility, and significant strategic impact. Unlike 20th-century insurgencies that relied on guerrilla tactics, the Houthis have increased the scale of the threat by utilizing kamikaze drones, ballistic missiles, and inexpensive surveillance systems. They direct these low-cost weapons at commercial vessels worth billions of dollars. When a single drone damages or threatens a merchant ship, dozens of global companies are forced to reroute, increase logistics costs, and face widespread economic risks. Asymmetric strategies work by avoiding the opponent’s main strengths and attacking points that render those strengths irrelevant. This is what is happening in the Red Sea: the superiority of modern warships is useless when the threat comes from small drones that are difficult to track and cheap to replace (Baylis and Wirtz, 2016).

The limitations of the navies of major countries in responding to these attacks highlight problems in traditional defense doctrine. The United States and Britain have deployed advanced combat fleets, but Houthi attacks continue and hit strategic targets. Major powers designed defense systems to deal with interstate threats, not irregular attacks from irregular actors who have no diplomatic obligations and do not submit to international norms. Modern insurgencies thrive by exploiting institutional gaps and the unpreparedness of states to respond to rapidly changing conflict dynamics. The Houthis are a case in point: they operate in a grey area that is not accounted for in conventional defense frameworks (Kilcullen, 2009).

The Houthis’ strategic strength stems not only from their military capabilities but also from their ability to exploit global economic interdependence. The Suez–Red Sea route is one of the world’s logistics hubs. When this region is disrupted, the consequences immediately affect the global energy market, European and Asian supply chains, and logistics costs for almost all sectors of international trade. Houthi attacks, although physically limited, have a huge psychological effect. When an attack occurs, dozens of international companies immediately review their navigation routes. This fear has a much greater economic impact than the physical damage to the ships that are targeted. In a strategic context, the Houthis have understood that creating uncertainty is a very cheap and very effective strategic weapon.

Moreover, Houthi operations are not merely military actions but part of broader geopolitical dynamics in the Middle East. They function as non-state actors and instruments in regional competition, particularly between Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. With technological and logistical support from patron states such as Iran, the Houthis play a role in a larger regional strategy. This blurs the line between state and non-state actor strategies. Attacks on merchant ships are an effective way to put pressure on major countries without the political risks that usually accompany direct military action.

The involvement of non-state actors in the architecture of modern conflict reveals that the conventional concept of international security is no longer adequate. The doctrine of global maritime security was designed on the assumption that the main threat comes from rival states. However, the greatest threats today come from groups that do not have official navies, do not hold sovereign territory, and are not accountable to the international community. While states remain fixated on traditional threats, groups such as the Houthis are able to move quickly, flexibly, and effectively, exploiting every available opportunity. This is why international stability is increasingly vulnerable, even as the military power of major states continues to advance technologically.

The Red Sea crisis highlights the need for a major paradigm shift in global security strategy. Countries can no longer rely on interstate deterrence as the main pillar. A new model is needed that combines counter-drones, supply chain security, regional diplomacy, and conflict stabilization policies on land. Without a multidimensional approach, countries will continue to be stuck in short-term reactions rather than long-term strategies.

Ultimately, the Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are not merely a disruption to international trade but a warning that the global security order is undergoing a fundamental repositioning. The arguments in this paper show that asymmetric strategies have eroded state dominance and revealed the unpreparedness of international security structures to deal with irregular threats. If states fail to update their paradigms, the future of global stability will increasingly be determined by actors who have no international obligations, are not subject to the norms of war, and are able to maximize their power at minimal cost. The world is entering a new era of strategy, and the Red Sea is proof that state dominance is no longer the mainstay of contemporary warfare.

Source link

China-Taiwan-Japan Dynamics Puts Pressure on Trump’s G2 Gambit

Amid heightened Japan-China tensions, US President Donald Trump spoke by telephone with Chinese President Xi Jinping. While Trump termed it a positive development, stating he would visit China in April 2026, China claimed that it categorically made it clear that “Taiwan’s return to China was an ‘integral part of the postwar international order.” While it has been reported that Trump requested a phone call with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, the details of the conversation between the two haven’t been made public yet.

Trump’s claim of “extremely strong” US-China relations has once again seized global attention. Earlier, last month, just ahead of his highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, South Korea, Trump boldly announced on Truth Social, “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!”

Unsurprisingly, the statement sparked widespread discussion, directly invoking China and seemingly reviving the long-dormant G2 concept, an idea previously floated by former President Barack Obama.

This apparent attempt to resurrect the “G2” notion, which envisions shared global leadership between the US and China, marks a notable rhetorical shift and is surprising given that Trump has been hawkish on China even during his first term as the president. By invoking it, Washington has brought back a concept dismissed as a faulty trade-off, given the persistent and often adversarial nature of US-China relations. Media analyses suggest that this move reflects a growing recognition within the US of China’s rising power and an uneasy acknowledgement of its near-equal status on the world stage. The renewed attention signals an implicit acceptance within American policy circles of China’s expanding international influence and the shifting balance of global power.

For China, however, the idea holds little appeal. First, China continues to present itself as a developing country, aspiring to lead the Global South and, eventually, to achieve broader global influence. Unlike the West, China sees strategic value in retaining the support of developing nations to bolster its legitimacy. While it aims to surpass the US militarily, economically, and technologically, it is unlikely to embrace a bilateral framework implying formalized co-governance of the world. Second, the ideological, strategic, and global ambitions gap between China and the US remains vast, limiting the feasibility of any institutionalized G2 arrangement. Third, if such a framework were ever to exist, it would likely involve broader coalitions of nations with differing ideologies, capacities, and priorities, rather than a US-China duopoly. In this light, the G2 concept appears even less plausible for China in 2025 than it did in the 2000s.

While much commentary has focused on how this discourse may be interpreted in China, the implications extend far beyond the bilateral relationship. Washington’s allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific are closely observing these developments. For many in the region, stability in US-China relations is desirable, as it would help mitigate the risks of confrontation, economic disruption, regional instability, and global upheavals. Yet Trump’s rhetoric has also generated unease among America’s regional partners regarding Washington’s long-term strategic intentions.

Concerns are growing that a return to the G2 framework could signal a weakening of US commitment to the Indo-Pacific, particularly in terms of security and regional order. While sustained engagement with China is widely accepted as necessary, framing the relationship as one of shared global governance may alarm America’s allies and partners, especially the Quad countries, the Philippines, and Taiwan. For these countries, any suggestion of a US-China condominium raises doubts about the credibility of the US’s status as a security guarantor and its assurances of collective defense and regional stability.

From the US perspective, reviving the G2 discourse may appear advantageous to smooth the way for a rare earth materials deal with China or to ease bilateral tensions. But fundamental differences and rivalry cannot be erased: China’s ultimate goal is to overtake the US. In all likelihood, China will view G2 rhetoric skeptically, interpreting it as a sign of US weakness and declining influence in the Indo-Pacific.

The Xi-Trump phone call and China’s reiteration of the Taiwan claim put pressure on Trump’s G2 plan. How Trump would manage ties with Japan and Taiwan while building relations with China is an issue worthy of international attention.

Trump’s episodic and erratic approach to China and the region risks eroding the trust the US has painstakingly built with its partners. There is little chance that countries such as India, Japan, or the Philippines would accept a bipolar world dominated solely by the US and China. Rather than serving as a stabilizer, the G2 concept is more likely to be seen as an attempt to divide the world into two poles once again, or worse, as a signal that the US is content with a bipolar world rather than a genuinely multipolar order.

Even if the G2 never materializes, the rhetoric has already strengthened China’s position while placing the US in a strategic bind. In effect, it is a win-win for China but a lose-lose for America. There are limitations to America First not only for the region but also for America itself and its foreign policy. The Trump administration’s path would do well to seriously consider the perspectives of its allies and partners, rather than advancing a strategy that ultimately benefits China.

Source link

Behind the scenes: How ‘F1’ made a movie at real F1 races

Joseph Kosinski didn’t want to direct “F1” unless he was able to do it the hard way. That was the germ of an idea for what would eventually become one of the biggest hits of 2025: Create a movie about an underdog Formula One team that didn’t fake being at F1 races, but actually became a part of them.

“It was kind of like, ‘Yes, this is a little insane,’” said Kosinski, “‘but if we can pull it off, we’ll get something totally unique.’”

Kosinski doesn’t present as your average adrenaline junkie. He’s mellow and looks like he could work at a bank — in fact, he pursued architecture before finding a calling in film as a David Fincher protégé. Kosinski was trusted with blockbusters from his debut, 2010’s “Tron: Legacy,” and in 2022 broke through with “Top Gun: Maverick,” which strapped Tom Cruise and other insurance liabilities into actual fighter jets as an alternative to relying on CGI.

“I think on ‘Maverick,’” Kosinski said, “I found out that the audience does appreciate when you shoot something for real. They can tell the difference between something done on a soundstage and done in a real situation. It’s something we are very attuned to and connect to.”

“F1” tells the story of Sonny Hayes (Brad Pitt), a leathery road dog of a driver who gets called back into Formula One by an old racing friend (Javier Bardem), who’s now the owner of a struggling team, desperate for a Hail Mary. The film is partially based in reality; the Hayes character is inspired by Martin Donnelly, whose promising career was cut short in 1990 by a gruesome crash. It’s also partially based in a fantasy in which someone old enough to have seen the 1966 epic “Grand Prix” in theaters would be allowed to sit in the driver’s seat of a modern F1 team.

Director Joseph Kosinski on the set of "F1."

Director Joseph Kosinski on the set of “F1.”

(Apple TV)

But the fantasy elements were designed to be offset by a hyperrealism that’s rarely afforded to film productions — not just in the ability to feature the actual teams and drivers, but also to film a significant portion of the movie at the races themselves. It helped that the production had Lewis Hamilton, one of the best drivers in the history of the sport, on board as a producer to help grease the wheels with the Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile, the governing body of F1. Even with Hamilton, though, Apple — which ultimately spent over $200 million on the movie — had to prove to the FIA that they could set up at an event like the fabled British Grand Prix at Silverstone and not cause a pileup.

“We had to rehearse the blocking and staging for about two weeks with a stopwatch in front of the FIA to prove to them that we could actually shoot a scene and get off the track before the race started,” said Kosinski, referring to a crucial scene when the characters played by Pitt and Tobias Menzies first meet.

Unlike “Maverick,” in which military pilots flew the jets, “F1” features driving from Brad Pitt and co-star Damson Idris, in some sense because it was the only way to get the shots they needed. “They’ve got four cameras in front of them that are whipping around and they’re having to do their lines and perform,” said Kosinski. “But mostly they’re trying not to die in front of 100,000 people.”

Every department — from the actors to craft services — had to learn how to operate at dangerous speeds and with higher stakes. Ben Munro, who did the production design with Mark Tildesley, explained that, normally, his department would have two weeks to build a set; in some cases on “F1,” such as a scene filmed at the McLaren headquarters, they would have just 12 hours, overnight.

“When you try to integrate with the real world, ultimate control becomes harder,” Munro said. “And as filmmakers, we’re used to being in ultimate control.”

The "F1" team developed new cameras to capture the film's ultra-realistic high-speed racing.

The “F1” team developed new cameras to capture the film’s ultra-realistic high-speed racing.

(Apple TV)

The camera team too had to be adaptable and mobile (no VistaVision here), all while figuring out how to capture footage at 180 miles per hour that couldn’t be covered with more than a few takes. “First, we had to make a camera that didn’t exist yet,” said Claudio Miranda, the film’s cinematographer.

Miranda, who won an Oscar for “Life of Pi,” worked with Sony to develop small, agile “sensor-on-a-stick” cameras with Imax-worthy lenses to place around the cars. Coverage became essential — there were 16 camera positions to capture as much as possible. With both the racing itself and the hoopla around race weekend, the usual filmmaking mindset simply had to change: “I’m not always able to shoot sunset for this shot, or backlight for this quarter,” said Miranda, describing his thinking. “We traded all that in for the realism of the movie. But I think that’s unbeatable.”

Other than a few spinouts (and a stray Brad Pitt fan ruining a shot to get a selfie), the production was miraculously accident-free, despite taking almost two years to film. That may be due in part to the fact that, if you squint, it turns out that a film crew is similar enough to an F1 team to fit right in.

“Everyone had to be prepared for those nine-minute shoot windows in the same way that you’d have to be ready for a pit stop,” Kosinski said. “There was a really interesting kinship. And we really did feel like the 11th team after spending two seasons with them.”

The moment that sticks with Miranda is from the end of the production, in Abu Dhabi, when all the real F1 teams got their cars out for one grand scene together — a million-dollar setup, to undersell it by a few digits. “In the beginning, it did feel like we were this annoying little buzzard,” Miranda said. “I think that’s why I got really emotional when everyone wanted to help us out in the final race and bring the cars out. Because it felt like, at the end, we were kind of loved.”

Source link

The Papal presence in Nicaea and the prospective framework of Ecumenical Ecclesiastical Diplomacy

Can a significant and historic presence in Nicaea in commemoration of the 1700th anniversary of the first Ecumenical Council reshape the framework of global Christian dialogue? Pope Leo XIV stands on ground where the first common statement of Christian belief was formed seventeen centuries ago in the context of the first Ecumenical Council. The lake near Nicaea reflects a city marked by long memory. The visit does not seek public spectacle. It seeks depth.

Nicaea holds a rare form of significance. It represents a moment before fragmentation. A point where Christian leaders gathered to agree on the foundations of faith. The Creed shaped in this city became the common reference for churches that later followed separate paths. Modern reporting treats the return to this location as an event that reaches far beyond history.

Catholic analysts describe the entire journey as a platform for structured engagement in regions facing humanitarian risk. Diplomats notice that the visit creates three layers of meaning. The first is theological. The Creed continues to stand as the most stable reference point in the Christian world. It belongs to all. It excludes none. By returning to this shared foundation, the Pope frames dialogue on a level where long-standing differences do not erase the possibility of cooperation. Nicaea becomes neutral ground shaped by memory, not by competition.

The second layer concerns Turkey. The host country receives two ecclesiastical authorities with global reach. This presence allows Ankara to present a profile of stability and controlled engagement. The Turkish state seeks to gain diplomatic value by precisely managing an event of global religious interest. The visit shows that Turkey can provide a calm setting for high-level dialogue. This matters in a region where tensions remain visible and where regional trust is often fragile.

The third layer concerns the Ecumenical Patriarchate. The presence of the Ecumenical Patriarch in Nicaea reflects continuity. The Ecumenical Patriarchate appears as an institution that maintains a steady link to the origins of Christian identity. The visit confirms that this link remains relevant for contemporary diplomacy. The Ecumenical Patriarchate gains space to articulate its role in matters that extend beyond the inner life of the Church. It operates as a voice that connects historical experience with public responsibility.

The papal journey signals a shift in diplomatic rhythm. States often work inside short cycles, shaped by elections, immediate pressures, and shifting alliances. Religious institutions work with longer horizons. Their strength lies in stability and consistent representation. This contrast produces space for initiatives that require patience. Current challenges in Lebanon, instability in the Eastern Mediterranean, and the need to support minority communities demand actors who maintain firm positions without rapid fluctuations. A coordinated presence in Nicaea offers such a foundation.

The significance of the visit grows through its simplicity. A prayer beside the lake, a joint statement, and the act of walking together inside the historic city produce a stable message. Cooperation becomes visible without exaggeration. The region gains a moment of calm narrative. Christian communities observe two ancient institutions approaching each other with clarity and restraint. This image contributes to a sense of balance in an environment shaped by uncertainty.

Nicaea becomes a diplomatic space in its own right. It is not an arena of negotiation. It is a site that offers shared memory with no tension. Modern diplomacy often searches for locations that can support conversation without pressure. Nicaea provides this naturally. The city stands outside polarized debates. It holds symbolic value without imposing a political agenda. A papal visit strengthens this character and gives Nicaea renewed relevance in discussions about stability and cooperation.

The effects of this visit may unfold gradually. Joint humanitarian initiatives could gain stronger coordination. Churches may open structured channels for supporting communities under stress in Lebanon, Jordan, and other regions of the Middle East. Dialogue among Christian bodies can develop with greater consistency. States in the Eastern Mediterranean may engage with these institutions in more formal ways. All these possibilities gain substance because the visit gives clear institutional legitimacy to a shared framework.

The return to Nicaea does not promise rapid or dramatic transformation. It shapes a foundation for patient diplomacy. The city provides steady ground in a world where constant crises weaken attention spans. Nicaea speaks through continuity. The visit reminds the international community that institutions with long historical roots can offer stable guidance in periods of instability. This is not nostalgia. It is recognition that durable structures can support fragile societies.

In this sense, Nicaea gains a renewed voice. The city becomes a reference point for future cooperation. The Papal presence demonstrates that sacred geography can still influence public life. The visit marks a shift toward long-range planning where values and institutions act together. It suggests that global dialogue benefits from places where memory and responsibility meet without conflict.

Nicaea does not present solutions. It provides a framework where solutions become possible. For contemporary diplomacy, this may be its greatest contribution. A quiet moment becomes a stable foundation. A historic city becomes a modern point of connection. And a visit shaped by restraint becomes a clear signal that cooperation can grow from shared origins, even in a complex and fragmented world.

Source link

Former Duck Corey Perry boosts Kings, but they fall in Freeway Faceoff

A lot of people return home for the Thanksgiving weekend. But for Corey Perry, Friday’s homecoming was more than a little bit awkward.

One of the most decorated players in Ducks’ history, Perry was greeted by a smattering of boos when he wore a Kings’ sweater into the Honda Center for the first time. Two hours later he left, carrying the sting of a Ducks’ victory that saw his old team rally from deficits three times before winning the first Freeway Faceoff of the season 5-4 in a shootout.

“Great comeback,” said winger Chris Kreider, whose second-period power-play goal got the Ducks started. “A good job of fighting back. It’s definitely a confident feeling.”

Leo Carlsson, who suffered through two dismal losing seasons during the long post-Perry rebuild in Anaheim, had two assists and the game-tying goal with 91 seconds left in regulation for the Ducks, who trailed 4-2 with less than 10 minutes to play.

The Kings' Jacob Moverare blocks a pass from Duck Mason McTavish to Beckett Sennecke Friday at the Honda Center.

The Kings’ Jacob Moverare blocks a pass from Duck Mason McTavish (23) to Beckett Sennecke (45) Friday at the Honda Center.

(Harry How/Getty Images)

“It’s a different team,” Carlsson said. “Hungry. Different mentality, too. So it’s been great so far season.”

Only Ryan Getzlaf has played more games for the Ducks then Perry, who left Anaheim in 2019 after 14 seasons, beginning an aimless tour of the NHL that saw him play for five teams before signing a free-agent contract with the Kings last summer.

The Ducks haven’t posted a winning record since he departed.

But after Friday’s victory they lead the division and are off to their best start in more than a decade. The Ducks are second in the Western Conference in wins (15), second in the NHL in goals (89), fourth in the conference in points (31) and were tied for fourth in points (31). For Carlsson, meanwhile, his 13th goal and 19th and 20th assists of the season Friday left 20, is tied for fourth in the league with 33 points.

The Ducks’ other scores Friday came from Olen Zellweger in the second period and Pavel Mintyukov in the third.

The Kings’ scores came Alex Laferriere, Kevin Fiala, Alex Turcotte and Joel Edmundson. With the point they earned by taking the game to overtime, the Kings headed back up the freeway Friday afternoon second in the Pacific Division, two points behind the Ducks.

The Kings' Corey Perry looks on during the second period against the Ducks at the Honda Center on Thursday.

The Kings’ Corey Perry looks on during the second period against the Ducks at the Honda Center on Thursday.

(Debora Robinson/NHLI via Getty Images)

And, surprisingly, they have Perry to thank for that.

“He’s a massive piece for us right now,” center Philip Danault said. “He’s not the fastest guy on the ice but he’s so smart. He goes into the crease, he gets goals. He gets in the opponent’s head.

“He’s probably one of the big reasons we’re winning.”

Since leaving Anaheim, Perry has come off the visitors’ bench at the Honda Center several times. So Friday’s game wasn’t necessarily one he had circled on his calendar.

“It was home,” he said before the game. “I have nothing but tremendous things to say.”

After missing the start of the season following knee surgery, Perry was activated last month on the same day captain Anze Kopitar was placed on injured reserve with a foot injury. And he immediately took up the slack, scoring the first of his seven goals — good for second on the team — in his second game. He also has six assists, is fourth on the team with 13 points and is averaging more than 14 minutes of ice time just the second time since he left Anaheim.

“You know, it’s fun,” said Perry, who is nearly halfway to his point total of a season ago. “This is what we do for a living.”

Perry, 40, is the third-oldest player in the NHL. But with a Stanley Cup, an MVP award, a goal-scoring title and two Olympic gold medals in his trophy case, he has a resume few players can match. Yet the Ducks bought out the final two seasons and $8.625 million of his contract in 2019, part of a rebuild that has seen the franchise go through three coaches and three general managers without posting a winning record.

“Now it’s seven years later. I don’t know anybody on the team,” Perry said of the Ducks, who have the second-youngest roster in the Western Conference. “It’s turned over so much that it’s a new group.”

Ducks center Mason McTavish scores the winning goal during a shootout of against the Kings on Friday at the Honda Center

Ducks center Mason McTavish scores the winning goal during a shootout of against the Kings on Friday at the Honda Center.

(William Liang/AP)

And new coach Joel Quenneville, who has a history of coaching success with young players, has that new group playing with confidence.

“We’re never going to give up,” said Carlsson, one of six Ducks younger than 23. “That’s the mentality.”

Laferriere got the scoring started late in the first period, parking himself in front of the goal and banging the puck past Ducks’ goalie Ville Husso, who made two big saves in the shootout.

Kreider tied it seconds into a power play midway through the second period, then Fiala and Zellweger exchanged goals just 59 seconds apart to send the teams into the second intermission tied 2-2.

Turcotte’s first goal of the season on a tip-in put the Kings back in front early in the third period before Edmundson doubled the lead on a slap shot from outside the right faceoff circle. He was helped by Perry’s presence in front of the goal, screening Husso on the shot.

The Kings wouldn’t score again though, allowing the Ducks to force overtime on goals from Mintyukov and Carlsson, who game-tying score came after his team pulled Husso to get an extra attacker.

“It was fun,” McTavish said of his first Freeway Faceoff matinee, which drew a sellout crowd of 17,174. “It was loud. There was a lot of energy in the building. So it was a ton of fun, and obviously more fun to come away with both points.”

Source link

The Blind Date couple who married in front of millions

Alix Hattenstone, BBC News

BBC Split pic with Sue and Alex Tatham's wedding, and guest Cilla Black, on the left, and a more recent photo of Sue and Alex smiling. BBC

Sue and Alex Tatham’s wedding was broadcast on a special episode called “Blind Date Wedding of the Year”. The couple are still happily married

Sue’s friends submitted a letter without her knowledge, saying she would like to go on the biggest dating show on TV.

Alex was at work when a colleague came around holding papers in the air. Instead of auditing payroll, they spent the afternoon filling in application forms.

It is 40 years since TV juggernaut Blind Date first aired, and Sue and Alex Tatham were the first couple who met on the show to get married, in a ceremony broadcast to around 17 million people.

They both said they didn’t go on the show looking for love, but love was what they found, and they have now been married for 34 years.

Handout Sue and Alex sit at a table in front of a window, a plate saying 'Happy anniversary' in chocolate between them. They smile at the camera, Alex's arm outstretched Sue is wearing a yellow sleeveless jumper over a white shirt and earrings, she has blonde hair. Alex is wearing a white shirt and his hair as turned grey. There are two pots of what looks like coffee at the table and small plants and buildings in the background.Handout

The couple recently celebrated their 34th wedding anniversary

After Blind Date came a string of modern dating shows following a similar concept, including Love is Blind, First Dates and even Love Island.

Now, Blind Date is set for a relaunch on Disney+, “reimagined for a contemporary audience” according to the streaming site.

So, how successful can a blind date be?

‘Was it as glamorous as it looked? No!’

ITV/ Shutterstock Sue and Alex meet for the first time on Blind Date, after the screen has been pulled back. Cilla Black stands in between them with her arms around the pair.  ITV/ Shutterstock

Sue and Alex meet for the first time on Blind Date

In 1985, Cilla Black hosted a pilot episode of a shiny new show inspired by a concept from America known as “The Dating Game”.

It went on to dominate Saturday-night TV, with millions of viewers tuning in to watch one person pick a date from three suitors hidden behind a screen.

When Sue appeared on Blind Date, finding a boyfriend was not her priority.

“It was because it was all so new – the birth of reality TV,” she said. “It was exciting and that’s why I really wanted to go, to see how it all was. Was it as glamorous as it looked? No!”

Alex said Blind Date was “a very hot TV show at the time. So it’d be a bit like now, if someone’s saying, who wants to be on Love Island?”

Around six months after applying, Sue and Alex were called in for auditions – Sue in Birmingham, Alex in London.

“They asked me questions like ‘If you were a fruit, what would you be?” Sue remembered. “What sort of animal would you be?”

Both Alex and Sue were given a slot to appear on the show, but Alex could not make it. Sue had her slot rescheduled too.

Sue said she spent the day with the other two girls Alex would choose from, getting to know them well – and that neither she nor Alex were allowed to have friends in the audience in case they influenced their decisions.

She also recalled the team’s efforts to make sure she and Alex did not bump into each other ahead of filming, which meant her diving into a cupboard if he was walking along the corridor.

“Great, I thought – it’s a real surprise!”

‘I had no idea why I picked Sue – it was just eenie meeny miny moe’

“It was a long old day, but exciting. And Cilla sort of wafted around a bit,” said Sue.

“Coming to you in curlers, putting you at your ease,” Alex added.

Sue and the other women Alex would pick from were given his questions in advance.

They wrote answers which were scanned and edited. “One of them – and it definitely wasn’t me – the question was about going to Australia and she said, ‘I’d like to you to rub suntan lotion on the bits I can’t reach’.

“And they said no, you can’t say that – that was out! It just shows what a change perhaps in the attitudes of today,” Sue said.

According to the Official Cilla Black website, British television watchdogs were initially worried about Blind Date’s sexual connotations – but Cilla’s involvement reassured them.

Alex remembered the “illusion of television” being shattered quickly when he saw the sliding door on the set, used to separate the chooser and the three suitors.

“The sliding door, which looks very chic – it’s basically a bloke at the back pulling a bit of cardboard.”

Handout In an old picture, Sue sits on Alex's lap, both smiling. She has curly blonde hair down to her shoulders, wears a black T-shirt and colourful shorts. He sits in a soft brown/grey armchair and they have their arms around each other. He wears a grey/black T-shirt and jeans and they are in what looks like a living room. It is a slightly grainy picture of a picture. Handout

After her first date with Alex, Sue told Cilla on Blind Date: “If in 10 years’ time I found myself married to Alex, it wouldn’t be such a bad thing”.

“When I picked Sue, number two from the West Midlands, I had absolutely no idea why I’d done that,” said Alex. “It was just eenie meeny miny moe.”

On the show, the newly matched couple picked their first date activity at random. Sue and Alex got a medieval banquet in Ireland. The couple said they were put in hotels five miles apart.

“At the end of the date, we said we’d quite like to go to a nightclub,” said Sue. “We’d been getting on so well.”

Only when they asked the production team, the answer was no, the date was over and they had to go back to their separate hotels.

“I think these days, they basically film you getting in the same room!” Alex said. “That just shows the big change in reality TV.”

‘Blind Date Wedding of the Year’

Handout/Alex and Sue Tatham A man in a suit with yellow tie, brown hair and a red patterned waistcoat smiles at the camera, to the right is a woman with blonde hair who also smiles at the camera, wedding veil pushed back and in a wedding dress and pearl necklace. She holds white flowers. To the left is Cilla Black, with a blue and white patterned poncho, hat and big oval earrings.Handout/Alex and Sue Tatham

‘It was an amazing day’: Sue and Alex on their wedding day, with guest Cilla Black

If a couple seemed to be getting on well, Cilla would ask, “Do I need to buy a new hat?” Well, in Alex and Sue’s case, she did – a smart blue number.

“When we first said that we were going to get married, they were very calm about it,” Alex said, talking about discussions with the team at Blind Date. “They said ‘Oh, we’d just love to take a video of you coming out of the church.'”

By the end, he said there were lots of TV crews, police and thousands of people outside the church.

Sue and Alex married in a special episode called ‘Blind Date Wedding of the Year’, broadcast on London Weekend Television.

“Imagine if you’re nervous about making a best man or a groom speech in front of 300 of your best friends,” said Alex. “Then imagine making it in front of millions.

“It was an amazing day. It did allow us to invite just about everyone we’ve ever met to our wedding, which also helped.

“They wore the brightest clothes they could because you wanted to get your face on TV. It looked like a really good edition of Songs of Praise.”

ITV/ Shutterstock Sue and Alex sit on curved black leather couch on Blind Date set, holding their newborn baby. Cilla Black, in bright red jacket, sits opposite them, smiling. ITV/ Shutterstock

Sue and Alex returned to the show with their first baby

‘I am just lucky to have picked her’

“We found we had plenty in common,” said Alex. “I think that when you grow together, as any couple will, you’ll find that actually you begin to share a set of values.

“Open honesty is the best thing,” said Sue. “And be kind.”

“Once you have someone with a similar set of values, boyfriend or girlfriend, no matter how you meet, that’s a really good basis for any relationship,” said Alex.

Handout/Alex and Sue Tatham An older Alex and Sue stand with two children in front of them, they all smile at the camera in front of water, trees and grass. Alex wears a black suit jacket and pink shirt, Sue wears a pink flowered dress with green leaves. The children wear blue.Handout/Alex and Sue Tatham

Sue and Alex’s children are now grown up

“The love of family, I think that’s a really important factor. The caring of every part of the family and friends. Ambitions to get on in life, the joy of going out and having a good time.

“She is sensitive and kind, a wonderful mother and still extremely beautiful. In fact most people fall in love with her, so it wasn’t hard for me. I am just lucky to have picked her.

“To this day, we say we love each other a lot to each other – and still do.”

Additional reporting by Kath Paddison

Source link

The High-Stakes Dialogue Between EU and Africa

The 7th African Union (AU) and European Union (EU) summit in Luanda, Angola, signaled support for Africa’s development in the coming years. Angolan President João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço hosted the summit on 24-25 November 2025. The unique discussions between African and European leaders and the various partnering organizations underlined invaluable guarantees to undertake opportunities for strengthening long-term economic, cultural, and political ties in the continent.

Chairperson of the AU Commission, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, at the 7th AU-EU summit in Luanda, underscored that Africa brings not only vast resources to this partnership but also demographic dynamism, technological ambition, and a vibrant generation of innovators. Europe can contribute capital, technology, and institutional cooperation. By aligning these strengths around shared priorities that include digital transformation and youth empowerment, both continents can shape a more prosperous future.

According to Mahmoud Youssouf, Africa is emerging as a global growth powerhouse and therefore calls for balanced trade partnerships and stronger multilateralism with members of the European Union.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who chaired the G20 Leaders’ Summit, the first to be convened on African soil since the African Union became a permanent member of the G20, highlighted economic growth and job creation while stressing the importance of stronger economic ties and regional integration with European partners.

In their speeches at the Summit, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and President of the European Council António Costa shared the development visions for the African continent and the financial mechanisms reaffirming commitment to the Joint Vision for 2030 and the AU’s Agenda 2063. These are implemented under the framework of the EU’s Global Gateway.

Shaping the future for Africa and Europe

The AU and EU adopted a joint declaration that reinforces cooperation in significant thematic areas, including peace, security, sustainable development, and regional integration. It also outlines an institutional structure and funding mechanisms for key actionable areas within a long-term framework for cooperation.

In the adopted document, the EU reassured its support for Africa’s development priorities, determined to advance partnership and to unlock new opportunities, and looked forward to an ambitious post-Agenda 2030 framework.

Leveraging public and private funds to stimulate investments and improving investment and business climate across the continents remain key and reaffirm commitment to ensuring the transformative impact of these investments. It identified financial institutions, in particular the European Investment Bank (EIB), the African Development Bank (AfDB), and public development banks, agencies, and similar bodies for providing finance.

The EU guarantees to continue supporting African countries to develop, industrialize, diversify exports, and integrate into regional markets. It will also accelerate the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

In terms of investing in education, research, science, technology, and skills development as a basis for driving scientific discoveries and innovative solutions, the EU acknowledged the importance of the youth as drivers for sustainable development and committed to supporting their empowerment and active participation. Therefore, the EU promised partnerships between universities and research organizations to foster mutual understanding and excellence.

Cooperation on Peace, Security, and Governance

There has been long-standing AU-EU cooperation on peace, security, and governance, including conflict prevention, peace mediation, and stabilization, premised on African-led solutions. Both the AU and EU agreed on a commitment to further strengthening dialogue and cooperation, including through the annual consultations between the AU Peace and Security Council and EU Political and Security Committee as well as the annual AU-EU Human Rights Dialogue.

Acting under a UN mandate, the EU pledged sustainable financing for AU-led Peace Support Operations. The document recognizes the African Union Peace and Security Council’s and the European Union Political and Security Committee’s contribution to the maintenance of peace, security, and stability in both continents and in promoting effective governance, and we welcome the AU’s efforts to silence the guns in Africa in line with Aspiration 4 of the AU Agenda 2063.

Stronger Commitment to Multilateralism

Both the AU and EU agreed to work towards more converging positions in multilateral fora to ensure an effective multilateral system with the UN at its core, based on international law and true to the purposes and principles of the UN Charter.

The Summit welcomed the contributions from the meetings of the European Parliament and the Pan-African Parliament in Midrand, South Africa. It encourages continued engagement of all relevant stakeholders in advancing the partnership. It finally registered joint commitment to international order based on international law and effective multilateralism grounded in international law, including the Charter of the United Nations.

The African Union and the European Union expressed profound gratitude to the President of the Republic of Angola, João Manuel Gonçalves Lourenço, and to the Angolan Government and people for the warm reception, hospitality, and excellent organization of the 7th AU-EU Summit.

Source link

The G20 Without Washington: A New Global Order Emerges

When South Africa opens the 2025 G20 Summit on November 22nd in Cape Town, the meeting will not simply be another high-level diplomatic gathering. It will be a test of what global leadership looks like in an era defined by debt crises, climate shocks, and geopolitical fragmentation. It will also be a summit shaped as much by who is present as by who is absent.

For the first time since leaders began to regularly attend the G20, the United States is not expected to attend at the presidential level. That absence will hang heavily over a summit built around three themes that South Africa has placed at the core of its G20 hosting: solidarity, equality, and sustainability. This is not symbolic branding. These are principles that directly challenge the structure and priorities of the current international system and America’s decision not to participate will only magnify their political weight.

South Africa’s Vision for a More Equal Order

South Africa has been clear about what it wants this G20 to represent. The country’s diplomats have framed the summit as an opportunity to “rebalance global governance” and restore trust between advanced economies and the Global South. That begins with solidarity, not as a moral appeal but as a practical necessity in a world where the gaps in competition are tightening across virtually every sector.

South African officials have emphasized that the world is too interconnected, through supply chains, energy markets, debt exposures, and climate shocks, for any nation to pursue growth alone. Solidarity, in their framing, means shared responsibility for global risks and shared input into global rules.

Expect to see debt restructuring as a key component of the weekend. Dozens of low and middle-income countries are approaching insolvency. Many see the G20 as the only venue capable of compelling creditors, including China, Western banks, and the IMF to negotiate jointly. South Africa intends to push for more predictable mechanisms, faster timelines, and deeper reductions of overall debt.

The theme of equality is expected to be even more pointed. Pretoria has argued that the international financial system remains structurally biased. Voting power at the IMF does not reflect modern economic reality. Climate finance packages distribute risk upward and accountability downward. Supply chain standards reflect the priorities of wealthy states far more than those of producing states.

South Africa wants this summit to pressure advanced economies to move beyond incrementalism and to recognize developing nations as cooperators, not beneficiaries, of global economic design.

Sustainability as an Economic Imperative

As noted in the central theme of the summit, sustainability is the key talking point of the weekend. South Africa is expected to focus on climate adaptation financing, food security resilience, renewable infrastructure gaps, green industrialization, and the economic displacement climate change is already causing.

Pretoria’s message is blunt: sustainability is not the environmental chapter of the global economy, it is the global economy. The safeguards nations build today will determine whether their populations can withstand the shocks of the coming decade.

The Symbolism of America’s Absence

While the summit’s themes are forward-looking, the headlines thus far are dominated by one glaring issue; The United States is boycotting the event, and not sending a single delegate.

This absence is certainly meant to be received as a bold statement. In a moment when most of the global agenda is being rewritten around solidarity, shared burdens, debt relief, and climate vulnerability, the United States is choosing not to stand at the table.

Many delegations will read this as confirmation of what they already suspected: that the U.S. is prioritizing bilateral leverage and transactional deals over multilateral governance. In other words, America is choosing power over partnership.

That decision will have ripple effects. If Washington is not present to influence the language of solidarity or the scope of sustainability targets, other powers will be. The U.S. forfeits not only visibility, but the ability to shape norms that will define the next phase of global cooperation. The strongman tactic will prove less effective as the world continues to accelerate towards a multipolar world, as opposed to a unipolar order where D.C. stands above the rest.

China and India Eager to Fill the Vacuum

China is expected to enter the summit with a confident posture, despite Xi Jinping not attending. Beijing has spent the past several years positioning itself as the Global South’s premier development partner. A G20 centered around equality and solidarity aligns perfectly with China’s messaging: that it represents a more inclusive, less conditional model of global cooperation. This message will be even more prominent with an absentee America. To capitalize on the overall theme of moving away from Western dominated structures, it would be reasonable to assume that many lending systems denominated in the Yuan will be discussed on the sidelines.

India, meanwhile, will frame itself as the democratic partner of choice for developing economies. Expect New Delhi to emphasize supply chain diversification, digital equality, and climate-resilient infrastructure. India will also push for greater representation of Global South nations in multilateral institutions, a message that will resonate strongly in Africa and Southeast Asia.

Europe Attempts to Lead

European leaders will arrive prepared to engage deeply on sustainability and climate finance, but without Washington their influence will be limited. Europe cannot match America’s financial firepower nor China’s development machinery.

While Europeans tend to embrace the rhetoric of solidarity, they remain cautious about large-scale debt forgiveness, new climate financing mandates, and reforms that would dilute their institutional voting power. That tension prevents Europe from presenting itself as the natural successor to U.S. leadership, but rather an extension of it in the eyes of many developing nations.

A Summit That Signals a Changing Global Order

If South Africa succeeds in shaping the weekend around solidarity, equality, and sustainability, the summit could represent the most significant shift in G20 philosophy since its creation.

Tomorrow’s G20 will not be remembered for dramatic breakthroughs. It will be remembered for something subtler but more consequential; a turning point in global governance where the United States stepped back and the rest of the world showed it could step forward.

Source link

What the UN Resolution 2797 Means for Western Sahara

In October 2025, a group of powerful states attempted to do in a few days what fifty years of occupation, war and repression had failed to achieve: close the file of Western Sahara in Morocco’s favour at the UN Security Council.

Using diplomatic blitzkrieg tactics, Morocco’s allies pushed a strongly pro-Moroccan “zero draft” resolution that they hoped to pass as a fait accompli. Had it gone through unchanged, Western Sahara would have been pushed closer toward erasure as a decolonisation question and recast as an internal Moroccan matter.

Instead, on 31 October 2025, the Council adopted Resolution 2797. Far from rubber-stamping Morocco’s claims, the final text reaffirmed every previous Security Council resolution on Western Sahara and restated an essential truth: any political solution must be just, mutually acceptable and consistent with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, including the right of the Sahrawi people to self-determination.

Several Council members pushed back against the original US-circulated draft, which had aligned closely with Morocco’s position. Their amendments restored the text to the legal framework that has governed this issue for decades. The result is not perfect, but it is unmistakable: Western Sahara remains an unfinished decolonisation process. It is not a settled dispute, and it is not Morocco’s to absorb.

Had the Council endorsed the early draft, it would have risked becoming a 21st-century version of the Berlin Conference, a chamber where great powers redraw Africa’s map without Africans present. In 1884–85, European states divided a continent in ways that still shape its borders. The danger today is subtler but no less serious: that the future of Western Sahara might once again be written in foreign ink, this time on UN letterhead.

Western Sahara in International Law: An Unfinished decolonisation

Legally, Western Sahara’s status is unambiguous. It remains listed by the UN as a Non-Self-Governing Territory, one of the last awaiting decolonisation. International law recognises the Sahrawi people as possessing an inalienable right to self-determination and independence.

When Spain withdrew in 1975, it failed to organise the required act of self-determination. Instead, it divided the territory between Morocco and Mauritania. Mauritania later withdrew; Morocco did not. Its military occupation sparked a long war with the Sahrawi liberation movement, the Frente Polisario.

The 1991 UN-brokered ceasefire created MINURSO, the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara. The mission’s very name is a reminder of the international commitment made: a referendum in which Sahrawis would choose between independence and integration with Morocco. That referendum has never taken place.

Today, around 200,000 Sahrawis remain in refugee camps near Tindouf, Algeria, waiting in harsh conditions for the vote they were promised. In the occupied territory, Sahrawis face systematic repression and severe constraints on political expression. Yet they remain the only people with no seat at the table where their future is being debated.

Autonomy and the Logic of Conquest

The current situation cannot be understood without the US administration’s 2020 recognition of “Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Western Sahara territory” in exchange for Morocco’s normalisation with Israel. This reversed decades of US adherence to UN-led self-determination and signalled that territorial questions could once again be traded as diplomatic currency.

Support for Morocco’s autonomy proposal is the political expression of that bargain. Marketed as a pragmatic compromise, it is predicated on accepting Moroccan sovereignty upfront, removing independence from consideration and redefining self-determination as ratification of annexation. A solution that excludes independence is not self-determination. It is the formalisation of conquest.

Those who insist that independence is “unrealistic” are elevating raw power above law. As scholars such as Stephen Zunes have warned, accepting autonomy as the final settlement would mark an unprecedented moment: the international community would be endorsing the expansion of a state’s territory by force after 1945. Every aspiring land-grabber on the planet would take note.

This argument that diplomacy must conform to power rather than principle dresses surrender up as pragmatism. “Realism” that ignores law and rights is not realism; it is complicity. The entire post-1945 legal order was built to end the idea that war and annexation are acceptable methods of drawing borders. Undermining that norm in Western Sahara does not make the world safer; it normalises the very behaviour many of these same states claim to oppose elsewhere.

A proposal is not a peace plan. A “solution” written by one side and handed to the other as the only acceptable outcome is not a negotiation — it is an ultimatum for surrender.

A Call to President Trump: A chance to stand on the Right Side of History

There is still time, and still a path, for the United States to reclaim a constructive role in resolving this conflict. For President Donald Trump in particular, the question of Western Sahara offers a rare opportunity to stand on the right side of history, to uphold the very Wilsonian principle of self-determination that the United States once championed, and to return American policy to its long-standing position of neutrality and respect for international law.

For decades, Republican and Democratic administrations alike supported a UN-led process and recognised Western Sahara as a decolonisation question, not as a bargaining chip. Restoring that principled approach would not only correct the 2020 departure from US tradition, but would reaffirm the American commitment to a world where borders cannot be changed by force and where the rights of small nations are protected from the ambitions of larger ones.

If President Trump were to bring the United States back to its historical role, supporting a fair, just and lasting solution rooted in genuine self-determination, he would achieve something that eluded every administration before him. He would be remembered not as a participant in a geopolitical trade, but as the president who helped resolve one of the world’s longest-running and most clear-cut decolonisation cases. He would be remembered as the leader who chose law over expediency, principle over pressure, David over Goliath.

There is a rare chance here: to correct a historic wrong, to end a conflict that has defeated presidents, prime ministers and UN Secretaries-General, and to bring justice to a small, peaceful and long-suffering people. Standing with the Sahrawi right to self-determination is not only the moral choice; it is the choice that aligns the United States with its own ideals and its own stated values and ultimately its interests.

Anything else, any endorsement of the logic of conquest or any attempt to force a people to accept subjugation as “autonomy”, would be a political act that history will not forget, and the Sahrawi people will not forgive.

Call for International Solidarity

Behind every debate in New York are people living under occupation, in refugee camps and in exile, waiting for a vote they were promised decades ago. The Sahrawi people are not seeking special treatment. They are asking for the same right that helped dismantle colonial rule from Asia to Africa: the right of a people to freely determine their political future.

What was right for Timor and Namibia is right for Western Sahara.

History offers many examples of colonial powers that looked immovable until, suddenly, they were not. East Timor, Namibia, Eritrea, all show that no amount of repression or diplomatic engineering can extinguish a people’s demand for freedom. In each case, global civil society, more than great powers, ultimately helped shift the balance.

The Sahrawi people are determined to reclaim their homeland. Determination alone, however, cannot overcome tanks, drones, a 2,700-kilometre sand berm, prisons and diplomatic horse-trading. Stronger international solidarity is urgently needed—not only in support of a just cause, but in defence of the international system itself. The Sahrawi struggle today stands at the frontline of protecting both the right to self-determination and the principles on which the United Nations was built.

To stand with Western Sahara is to defend the rule that borders cannot be changed by force and that colonialism cannot be rebranded as “autonomy”. States that champion a “rules-based international order” should match their rhetoric with action: refuse to recognise Moroccan sovereignty; support a free and fair act of self-determination that includes independence; and ensure that UN resolutions are implemented rather than endlessly recycled.

Civil society and solidarity networks also have important roles to play, from advocacy to material support for Sahrawi institutions and refugee communities.

The Final Question

The UN Security Council is not mandated to rubber-stamp an illegal occupation and baptise it as decolonisation. Doing so would violate the UN Charter, particularly Article 24. Under the Charter and decolonisation law, the Council’s room for manoeuvre is constrained by the peremptory right of self-determination. It cannot lawfully override that foundational right. Article 24(2) requires the Council to act in accordance with the purposes of the Charter—including self-determination—and its decisions cannot derogate from jus cogens norms.

Decolonisation remains the only lawful path to ending this conflict. The core question is simple: does the international community still believe that peoples, especially colonised peoples, have the right to choose their own future? If the answer is yes, then sovereignty in Western Sahara remains, in law and in principle, with the Sahrawi people.

The map of Africa was once drawn in imperial ink. Whether Western Sahara remains the last stain of that era or becomes part of a different future depends on whether the world insists that decolonisation means what it says.

Source link

Examining the Sudanese Conflict, Transnational Networks, and Shadow Globalization

When we talk about conflict in a country, we usually think of war, crisis, violence, and so on. Of course, these conflicts are crucial phenomena and need to be discussed. The civil war in Sudan is no exception. Sudan has been a country experiencing a humanitarian crisis since the military clashes in 2023. There are strong allegations of foreign interference through illicit funding, which has exacerbated this crisis. This issue is important to address because it shows that transnational societies are not always glorified as positive entities and that globalization can be an instrument contributing to the suffering of the Sudanese people.

The crisis in Sudan was sparked by a power struggle between the government military, the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo. Initially, the two military groups were allied to overthrow the regime of President Omar Al-Bashir, but disagreements arose over how to integrate their respective forces. Suspicion arose on both sides, leading to fierce fighting on April 15, 2023. The capital, Khartoum, suffered extensive damage, and the fighting spread, displacing more than 3 million people across the country and abroad. (Prayuda, Syafrana, Sundari, Shiddiqy, & Riau, 2024) 

Given the complexity of the Sudanese conflict, the author views the Sudanese conflict as a concrete illustration of how transnational society and globalization can give rise to new contradictions: promising interconnectedness and collaboration across borders, while simultaneously giving rise to networks that exacerbate humanitarian crises. The author analyzes the Sudanese conflict based on the concepts of transnational networks and shadow globalization. This paper focuses not only on domestic phenomena but also involves various non-state actors. Thus, the author is guided by three arguments, namely: first, how the transnational network strengthens the conflict so that the conflict has been organized to the global level; second, how globalization becomes a tool for illegal flows, thus triggering ongoing violence; and third, how the presence of transnational networks and shadow globalization makes the Sudanese conflict not only related to domestic affairs but also a global responsibility due to complex interdependence.

The Sudanese conflict has involved transnational actors who play a role as suppliers of weapons and illegal funding for the warring factions. A report from Amnesty (2024) asserts that “the conflict in Sudan is being fueled by a constant flow of weapons into the country,” originating from China, the UAE, and Turkey. Anti-material rifles, jammer drones, and mortars made in China; armored personnel carriers (APTs) from the UAE; hundreds of thousands of blank firearms from Turkey; and variants of civilian light weapons from Russia have provided external support for both parties in the conflict. All this data clearly shows that national borders are no barrier to the export of violence. Brokers, military contractors, and sponsoring states continue to supply weapons, ultimately providing them with ammunition for war. In other words, the Sudanese conflict could transform into a global war, with transnational communities acting as intermediaries in supplying weapons and interests across borders.

The role of transnational networks is the reason why the Sudanese conflict is difficult to stop. When supply A is blocked, another supply emerges. In the concept of transnational networks, “Transnational networks are webs of interactions that connect actors across national borders for the exchange of resources, information, or influence” (Keck & Sikkink, 1999), so these cross-border non-state actors are independent and not controlled by national governments. Reporting from France 24, according to Sudanese officials themselves, there are sources of mining industry and Swissaid research; almost all of Sudan’s gold flows to the UAE through official trade routes, smuggling, and direct Emirati ownership. This certainly provides funding for the warring armies to purchase new weapons.

Amidst the rapid flow of globalization, we cannot ignore shadow globalization. This concept describes how aspects of the illicit economy are transforming from the domestic sphere into transnational networks operating under official auspices, thus giving rise to mutually beneficial relationships between markets and criminal groups. According to Peter Lock (2005), when countries reduce regulations and begin to open their economies as part of neoliberal globalization, this actually allows criminal agents and groups to move freely in the global sphere, for example, through money laundering or illicit trade. There is a strong suspicion of the misuse of legal economic activities, ultimately leading to illegal objectives that violate international law. Thus, shadow globalization is the dark side of globalization because it operates in accordance with legitimate global flows.

Sudan possesses abundant natural resources, including oil, gas, and gold reserves, but these resources are diverted through illegal cross-border channels. A report from Illicit Financial Flows (IFFs) indicates that the country lost approximately US$5.7 billion between 2012 and 2018 due to illicit activities, particularly in the gold and oil resources sectors. (Integrity, 2024).  There are strong indications that funds intended for the benefit of the Sudanese people are instead being diverted to fund armed groups. More broadly, a 2020 UNCTAD report also stated that Africa loses approximately US$50 billion annually to illicit financial flows. This aligns with other reports that define illicit financial flows as funds whose origin, transfer, or use are illegal (In, 2020). Comprehensively, globalization can be an instrument of the shadow economy to support the ongoing violence in Sudan.

The situation in Sudan demonstrates that global structures are interdependent. Connectedness through technology, economics, politics, and security forces has erased national borders. Consequently, the decisions of actors, both formal and informal, influence other countries. Transnational networks and shadow globalization have transcended national borders through financial flows, arms trade, and gold, which have entered global markets and indirectly implicated external actors. Consequently, dependencies created by globalization impact economic stability, security, and humanitarianism.

Global responsibility is questionable, as the assumption that the conflict in Sudan is solely domestic is a misleading narrative. Every actor involved behind the scenes must recognize their moral responsibility for the profits derived from this conflict, for example, through the trade in gold, oil, and arms. According to a report by Chatham House (2023), the Sudanese conflict has a strong transnational dimension due to the involvement of Gulf states and global markets in the war economy. Furthermore, UNCTAD (2020) has confirmed that illicit financial flows in Africa have resulted in the loss of billions of dollars that could have been used for development and stability. Therefore, if globalization is understood as a global realm connecting all actors, the authors strongly argue that stability must be seen as a shared responsibility.

The three arguments above demonstrate that the Sudanese conflict can no longer be viewed as a domestic issue. The role of transnational networks and shadow globalization clearly illustrates how globalization fosters openness to cross-border cooperation but also opens up illicit flows of funds, weapons, and resources that exacerbate conflict. Furthermore, the concept of complex interdependence explains how the actions of one actor impact others. Therefore, the Sudanese conflict is a moral and political responsibility of the international community. Globalization has bound countries in interdependent relationships, so achieving stability must be seen as a shared project of the entire global community. With this awareness, the world is expected to view conflicts like Sudan as a real test of global solidarity and humanity.

Therefore, any findings regarding foreign funding and the involvement of global actors in the Sudanese conflict require further reporting. This article is not intended to marginalize any particular party but rather to open up space for reflection on the fact that amidst globalization, the boundaries between local and global interests are increasingly blurred. This relevance reminds us that the Sudanese conflict is not merely a spectacle but rather a mirror for shared humanitarian responsibility.

Source link

Can Feminist Foreign Policy Keep Its Promises?

In an era of global polarization and escalating crises, the promise of a Feminist Foreign Policy (FFP) has emerged as a beacon of progressive change. Yet, a troubling paradox lies at its heart: while political support holds steady, the financial backbone of the movement—women’s rights organizations—faces a “life-threatening” funding crisis. In an exclusive multi-respondent Q&A, experts from the Feminist Foreign Policy Collaborative—Katie Whipkey, Spogmay Ahmed, and Beth Woroniuk—break down the alarming data from their latest report and outline the path from minimalist commitments to a truly transformative global agenda.

1. The Rhetoric-Reality Gap: A “Life-Threatening” Divide

Your report’s data reveals a world where support for FFP is growing, yet funding for women’s rights organizations is in “urgent alarm.” How do you explain this gap?

Katie Whipkey: The report found that feminist foreign policy is not experiencing the rollback that we might have expected during this time of deep polarization and gender backlash. However, to say that it is growing may not be quite right—the interest is holding steady. That gives us a lot of hope. FFP has enabled governments to double down on existing commitments to gender equality in multilateral spaces and push for more gender-inclusive language. However, when it comes to the tougher structural issues like funding, especially for non-traditional funding targets such as women’s rights organizations (WROs), we see a gap. The brash reduction in Official Development Assistance (ODA) and the continually miniscule funding for WROs is alarming. ODA dropped 9% in 2024 and is predicted to fall up to 17% in 2025. Many of the biggest ODA donors are FFP governments, and they are cutting development budgets while simultaneously increasing military spending. This is life-threatening as 90% of WROs in crisis contexts report disrupted operations due to funding cuts. So what we see is that gender equality has been better rhetorically mainstreamed while remaining fiscally marginalized.

Beth Woroniuk: This gap is not new. There has always been a huge divide between the statements of support for gender equality on the part of the development assistance donors, and their actual support for women’s rights organizations. Between 2014 and 2023, just 0.1 per cent of ODA reached women’s rights and women-led organisations directly. Another example: financing to support the implementation of the women, peace and security agenda has ‘failed to match the scale of the challenge.’ The hope was that countries with feminist foreign policies would start to reverse this trend. And we saw this start to happen. Unfortunately this momentum is threatened by the current trend to slash development assistance budgets.

2. Resisting Backlash: The Second Generation of FFP

We’ve seen high-profile FFP abandonments in Europe and the Americas. Where are you seeing the most effective resistance to this backlash, and what does that resistance look like on the ground?

Katie Whipkey: Resistance to backlash takes several forms. Perhaps the single strongest form is from within through institutionalization of as many elements of FFP as possible. When we move away from political feminism—declarations or speeches that can be reversed overnight—and toward institutional feminism—incorporating inclusive and responsive policy into laws, budgets, bureaucracies, and diplomatic culture—we have a chance to stave off conservative pushback. This is the second generation of FFP, where the architecture outlasts the architects. The report identifies five mechanisms for institutionalization: policy, through legislative or administrative provisions; architecture, through dedicated departments; budgetary, through earmarked funds; leadership, through dedicated high-level roles; and capacity, through staff training. Resistance also looks like feminist bureaucrats and civil servants quietly keeping feminist norms alive through budget tagging and gender audits even when political leadership changes.

Spogmay Ahmed: While our report identifies FFP abandonments across Europe and the Americas, it also points out that engagement in FFP discourse—primarily by civil society—has deepened and diversified. For example, our own Global Partner Network for Feminist Foreign Policy has grown from 14 to over 100 partners. Over the past few years, regional networks have launched and expanded. Likewise, academic coverage has greatly increased. While there is no shortage of skepticism, our report demonstrates that interest has persisted, evolved and broadened. That too is one form of resistance.

3. Following the Money: Where Gender-Focused Aid Really Goes

The data shows FFP countries give more gender-focused aid, but the actual amount reaching women’s rights organizations is “miniscule.” Where is the money actually going, and how can it be redirected?

Beth Woroniuk: Development assistance that is counted as ‘gender focused’ supports a wide variety of goals and is provided to governments, international organizations, private sector companies, and NGOs. The vast majority of this funding is for projects that have just one component that supports gender equality, while a small percentage supports projects that directly target gender equality objectives. Traditionally, women’s rights organizations have been seen as too small and too risky to be chosen as key ‘implementors.’ In recent years, new mechanisms have emerged to address these challenges. For example, women’s and feminist funds have mobilized both development assistance and philanthropic resources to provide core, flexible, and predictable funding. These funds allow bilateral assistance entities to reduce the high transaction costs involved in providing multiple small grants.

4. Protecting Resources: A Political Choice

The report’s 5R framework highlights “Resources” as a key pillar. With major donors cutting Official Development Assistance (ODA), how can FFP countries practically “ring-fence” and protect funding for gender equality?

Beth Woroniuk: Protecting development assistance funding for gender equality is a political choice. When ODA budgets are cut, choices have to be made about what programmes are reduced or eliminated. At this moment, governments have an opportunity to say ‘we stand for gender equality and we will not cut these strategic investments.

5. Signature Initiatives: Funding Models That Work

The reports mention “signature initiatives” that partner directly with civil society. What is one concrete example of a funding model that is successfully getting resources to feminist movements?

Spogmay Ahmed: In our report, we outline a few of these ‘signature initiatives,’ such as France’s Support Fund for Feminist Organizations, which is allocated EUR 250 million over five years. Similarly, Canada invested CAD 300 million in the Equality Fund. We point to the Equality Fund as a powerful example of ‘institutionalizing’ feminist foreign policy; by making a large early investment, Canada helped ensure the Fund’s continued global impact.

Beth Woroniuk: These ‘signature’ initiatives all respond to calls from feminist activists to both increase investments in gender equality and change the terms on which this money flows – focusing more on feminist movements and providing more flexible funding.

6. The Power of Regional Partnerships

Beyond money, how are regional partnerships, like the one between Chile and Mexico, proving to be a powerful tool for advancing FFP goals?

Spogmay Ahmed: Our report recognizes a marked increase in regional cooperation. We see this primarily through a rise in ‘South-South’ cooperation efforts. One example is Chile and Mexico institutionalizing their FFP partnership through a memorandum of understanding on FFP, diplomatic training and Indigenous cooperation. Through such partnerships, governments are able to share learnings, strengthen collaboration, and collectively push for gender equality and human rights.

7. True Partnership: Beyond Writing Checks

The report recommends that FFP countries “ally with women’s and feminist funds.” What does a true, equitable partnership look like in practice, beyond just writing a cheque?

Katie Whipkey: We see that true, equitable partnership is grounded in co-creation and power-sharing. It means shifting from donor-recipient models to structures based on shared decision-making. Practically, this looks like feminist groups being involved in decision-making about how funds are prioritized, distributed, and evaluated. Feminists from the Majority World would be viewed and valued as knowledge experts. It also means long-term, core funding that enables spending on administrative and political work – not just service delivery.

Beth Woroniuk: Most development assistance projects are highly bureaucratic. Women’s and feminist funds are rooted in and accountable to feminist movements. Working together as thought partners, co-creators, and innovators are promising examples of changing out-dated structures.

8. Learning from Outliers

The report notes that some non-FFP countries invest a greater percentage in gender equality than FFP countries. What can FFP champions learn from these outliers?

Beth Woroniuk: One of the lessons from the report is that you don’t have to have an FFP to invest development assistance in gender equality. There are countries supporting key initiatives who haven’t adopted this label. So one lesson is that all countries can boost their gender equality ODA investments. There can be feminist champions doing solid work, without the feminist label.

9. One Action for Real Commitment

If you could tell the leaders of the remaining FFP countries one thing they must do in the next year to prove their commitment is real, what would it be?

Spogmay Ahmed: Strengthen feminist principles across all areas of foreign policy. This brings us back to the ‘Reach’ in our global framework. I would encourage leaders to broaden the scope and application of their feminist foreign policies, as well as their ambition.

Katie Whipkey: Institutionalize. We need to guarantee our gains by legislating what we know works, including protecting staffing and training budgets, providing direct funding to women’s rights organizations, and mandating regular publishing of transparent progress reports.

Beth Woroniuk: I would encourage countries with FFPs to reach out and engage civil society organizations. Yes, activists are often critical, yet they are also an enormous source of strength and creativity. These relationships can be sources of inspiration, expertise, and accountability.

From Pledge to Power: The Road Ahead

The insights from Katie Whipkey, Spogmay Ahmed, and Beth Woroniuk paint a clear picture: the future of Feminist Foreign Policy depends on closing the gap between rhetoric and resources. While institutionalization and civil society partnerships offer hope, true progress requires political courage—to protect funding, share power with grassroots movements, and extend feminist principles across all areas of foreign policy. As Whipkey powerfully notes, “In a time of backlash, we need courage.” The stakes could not be higher, but neither could the resolve of those fighting for a foreign policy that serves all of humanity.

Source link

10 years after Paris terror attacks, stadium security guard says he’s ‘more victim than hero’

Salim Toorabally’s mental scars from the Paris terror attacks 10 years ago have not healed with time and the images of that night at Stade de France remain indelible.

The November 2015 attacks began at France’s national stadium and spread across the city in assaults that killed 132 people and injured more than 400. One person died and least 14 were injured outside Stade de France that night, but casualties there could have been far heavier without Toorabally’s vigilance.

It was Toorabally who stopped Bilal Hadfi — one of the three terrorist bombers who targeted the national stadium when France’s soccer team played Germany — from getting inside.

Toorabally was praised for his actions, by then-President François Hollande, by the Interior Ministry and also by the general public. Yet his own suffering, unrelenting since that night, went unnoticed.

“I was seen more as a hero than as a victim,” Toorabally told the Associated Press in a recent interview. “But this part of being a victim is equally inside me.”

Later on Thursday, France played Ukraine in a World Cup qualifier at the Parc des Princes stadium in Paris, where a commemoration was planned and Toorabally was invited by the French Football Federation.

“I will be there but with a heavy heart,” he said. “Ten years have passed like it was yesterday we were attacked.”

Stopping the bomber

Toorabally was positioned at Gate L as a stadium security agent.

Hadfi tried to enter but was stopped by Toorabally when he spotted him trying to tailgate another fan through the turnstile.

“A young man showed up. He was sticking close behind someone, moving forward without showing his ticket. So I said to him, ‘Sir, where are you going? Show me your ticket.’ But he just kept going, he wasn’t listening to me,” Toorabally told the AP. “So I put my arm out, put my arm in front of him so he couldn’t go inside, and then he said to me, ‘I have to get in, I have to get in.’ It made me suspicious.”

Toorabally kept an eye on the 20-year-old Hadfi, who was now standing back a few yards away.

“He positioned himself right in front of me, he was watching me work and I alerted [fellow security agents] over the radio: ‘Be careful at every gate, there’s a young man dressed in black with a young face, very childlike, who is trying to get in. Do not let him in,’” Toorabally recalled. ”He stood in front of me for about 10 minutes, watching me work, and that’s when I got really scared. I was worried he’d go back in, that I wouldn’t see him. I watched him intently, he stared at me intently and suddenly he disappeared in the crowd, he slipped away.”

Toorabally’s warning worked. Hadfi was denied entry elsewhere, before later detonating his explosive vest.

The explosions

There were two explosions close together during the first half of the match; the first ones around 9:20 p.m. near Gate D, and a third explosion approaching 10 p.m. close to a fast food outlet.

Toorabally vividly remembers them.

“I could feel the floor shaking,” he said. “There was a burning smell rising into the air, different to the smell of [smoke] flares.”

He also tended to a wounded man that night.

“I took charge of him, I lay the individual down. He had like these bolts [pieces of metal] lodged in his thigh,” said Toorabally, who still speaks to the man today. “I looked at my hands, there was blood. I didn’t have gloves on, and there were pieces of flesh in my hands.”

Keeping fans in the dark

Toorabally said he and other security agents were told not to inform spectators of the attack, to prevent a potential situation where 80,000 people tried leaving at the same time.

“The supporters inside couldn’t know the Stade de France had been attacked otherwise it would have caused enormous panic,” Toorabally explained. “At halftime some fans came up to us and asked, ‘What happened? Was there a gas explosion at the restaurants in front of the stadium?’ We didn’t answer them so as not to cause panic.”

After the game the stadium announcer told spectators which exit gates to use and many went home by train, including Toorabally.

Traumatic images

Five days after the attack he was called to a police station to help identify Hadfi as one of the bombers. Toorabally was given no forewarning of what he was about to see.

“They showed me a photo, his [Hadfi’s] head was separated from his body. The forensic police [officer] was holding his head,” Toorabally said. “I formally recognized him. It was indeed the man who had been in front of me, who had stood there, who had been alive and was now lifeless.”

Hadfi’s face remains imprinted on Toorabally’s mind.

“The image is very violent, someone’s head separated from his body. Then there’s the explosion, the odor of burning and my hand filled with human flesh. These images have stayed in my mind for 10 years.”

Toorabally‘s wage that night was 40 euros ($46). “I suffer from post-traumatic stress, it is very severe, very violent.”

Horrific memories can appear at any moment.

“I could be with you and talking with you and then all of sudden my mind goes back there,” Toorabally said. “This is something very, very difficult to deal with. It handicaps you.”

Talking helps

Toorabally talks to a psychiatrist and says it helps to tell people about what happened. But at the time of the attacks and in the months afterward he received no psychological support.

“That’s how traumatism sets in,” Toorabally said. “The proof being it stayed 10 years.”

He dealt with his mental anguish alone, having potentially saved hundreds of lives.

“Every time I go back to the Stade de France, I can’t help thinking about it,” Hollande told L’Équipe newspaper. “I realize what could have happened if an attack had taken place inside the stadium, or if panic had gripped the crowd.”

Former France midfielder Blaise Matuidi called Toorabally “more than a hero” and added “if the terrorists had entered, what would have happened? Just talking about it gives me chills.”

Pugmire writes for the Associated Press.

Source link

Gaza: The Laboratory of Peace Under the Shadow of Power

These days, when politicians toss around the word “peace” like it’s going out of style, its real meaning has gotten pretty murky. Sometimes, peace isn’t about freeing people—it’s more like slapping a new kind of control on societies that are already hurting. Take the latest U.S. draft resolution to send an international stabilization force into Gaza, which they pitched to the UN Security Council. It sounds all nice with talk of stability, rebuilding, and keeping civilians safe, but if you dig a little deeper, you see the sneaky play of power and the drive to stay in charge. After all these years of fighting, blockades, and total destruction, the same folks who helped cause the mess are now stepping up like they’re the heroes here to fix it and watch over the peace. So, the big question pops up: Can a peace that’s forced by those in power really count as peace, or is it just a fancy label for keeping things the way they’ve always been—a calm on the outside, but underneath, it’s all about hanging onto inequality and the rules of who dominates whom? 

The U.S. draft seems like it’s trying to fill the security hole after a ceasefire and deal with the broken-down government setups in Gaza. But right from the start, in its opening parts, it’s obvious that the whole thing leans more on outside management of the crisis than on actual justice or letting Palestinians decide their own fate. Suggesting a two-year “International Stabilization Force” basically sets up something that feels a lot like an occupation, where the key choices get yanked away from the people on the ground. This kind of top-down approach, what experts in international relations call “peace from above,” has bombed time and again because it doesn’t build up the local ability to bounce back—instead, it locks in a reliance on foreign powers for politics and security. 

Another big problem is how this force is set up to be more about taking charge than just keeping an eye on things. Regular UN peacekeeping gigs are all about staying neutral and observing, but this U.S. version gives the green light to use force to “get the job done.” That change in wording—from peacekeeping to straight-up enforcement—shows how Washington wants to bend international groups to fit its own foreign policy goals. When a force like that can throw its weight around with coercion, it stops being about mediating and starts turning into

actual governing, making peace more about who has the muscle than about talking things out. 

The third sticking point is around political legitimacy and who gets to represent folks. Sure, the draft throws in mentions of a “transitional authority” or “peace council” to run Gaza for a bit, but it doesn’t lay out any real democratic way to pick who’s on it. In reality, this group would just be the paperwork side for the international troops, and at most, it’d represent Palestinians in name only. Looking at it through the lens of international law, this setup is dicey because it could stomp all over the idea of people ruling themselves, swapping it out for some kind of condescending oversight—kind of like what happened with those international setups in Kosovo and Bosnia after their wars. 

On the economic side, the rebuilding plan tucked into this thing doesn’t have much of a focus on fairness. The resolution hammers home how urgent it is to rebuild, but the ways to hand out the money and resources stay firmly in the grip of international committees that are tied financially and politically to Western governments. Instead of giving power back to Palestinian communities, this could just repeat the old “strings-attached aid” routine, where fixing things up becomes a way to pull political strings. In that setup, help with the economy isn’t really about growing or developing—it’s more like a tool for keeping society in line, turning the whole recovery process into something that controls people rather than mending what’s broken. 

Politically speaking, sidelining the nearby countries is another major flaw. Arab nations, who are right there geographically and share a lot culturally with the Gaza situation, only get a nod as backup players. This built-in shutout creates a bigger divide between what’s actually happening on the ground and where the decisions are being made, which hurts both how legitimate the mission looks and how well it might work. We’ve seen from history that when international efforts don’t have buy-in from the region, they usually flop because they miss the local nuances and push cookie-cutter policies instead of real back-and-forth conversations. 

From a humanitarian angle, the draft has drawn a ton of heat. Groups that watch out for human rights are sounding alarms that putting a force with wide military reach into such a shaky spot could ramp up the chances of abuses against regular people. The plan doesn’t spell out any solid way for independent checks or holding folks accountable if things go wrong. We’ve got examples from past UN operations in Africa and the Balkans showing that without those protections, you can end up with some serious ethical and human disasters. So, ironically, a plan that’s supposed to shield civilians might wind up putting them in more danger. 

In terms of how it’s worded, the U.S. draft keeps pushing this old-school idea of “security as something good for the whole world,” where the big powers paint themselves as the keepers of order and peace. In this way of talking, peace isn’t born from fair deals—it’s the result of managing everything from the top and wiping out any say from the locals. The draft’s full of gentle phrases like “stability,” “reconstruction,” and “humanitarian aid,” but they hide a whole web of uneven relationships and power structures. Even though it’s smoothed out for diplomacy, the text is a classic case of what critical thinkers in international relations dub “interventionist neoliberalism”: keeping domination going while pretending it’s all about a stable global setup. 

On a symbolic level, the draft says a lot too. By floating this plan, the United States is trying to come off as the fair broker for peace, despite everyone knowing its track record of backing the occupation and keeping inequalities alive in Palestinian areas. This split personality chips away at the plan’s credibility right from the heart. When the folks writing the resolution are also key players in the conflict, any talk of being neutral just doesn’t hold water. A peace that comes from that kind of mess isn’t built on trust—it’s hanging on a shaky power balance that’s way too fragile to last. 

We shouldn’t just see the recent U.S. draft resolution on Gaza as some routine diplomatic paper. It points to a bigger pattern in world politics: using peace as a way to control things. On the face of it, it stresses security, rebuilding, and keeping things steady, but underneath, it’s based on this unequal split between the “bosses” and the “ones being bossed.” Rather than handing back control to the people in Gaza, it keeps them stuck in the loop of outsiders calling the shots and trades away their local say-so for the sake of some international system. From that angle, the peace they’re proposing isn’t stopping the violence—it’s just reshaping it. 

The way the plan structures politics and security is more about enforcing rules and holding things in than about delivering justice or letting people stand on their own. No real ways to check accountability, wiping out Palestinian input, the heavy-handed military vibe in the writing, and leaning so much on institutions run by the West—all of that screams that this resolution isn’t fixing anything; it’s adding to the mess. Even if it dials down the fighting for a while, it could spawn a fresh kind of reliance that links Gaza’s comeback to giving in politically. 

In our world right now, you can’t have lasting peace without justice at its core. When you ditch justice for meddling politics, peace turns into just a break before the next round of fighting. What Gaza really needs isn’t some bossy international force—it’s a real promise to respect their right to decide their own path. Any idea that skips over that basic truth, no matter how nicely it’s dressed up in caring words, is bound to keep the violence spinning. The U.S. draft, with its fake peaceful front, definitely walks right into that pitfall: a peace lurking in the shadow of power, not shining with justice.

Source link

The Global Debt Crisis and the Case for Structural Reform – Interview

In a world where 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on debt interest than on health and education combined, the global financial system isn’t just flawed, it’s fundamentally unjust. This alarming reality formed the core of our conversation with Bodo Ellmers, Managing Director of Global Policy Forum Europe, following the recent UNCTAD 16 conference in Geneva. Against the backdrop of widening inequality and escalating debt distress across the Global South, Ellmers—a veteran policy expert with over two decades in the field—offered a stark diagnosis of the systemic failures in our international financial architecture and charted a path toward meaningful reform.

The Double Squeeze: How Debt Worsens Inequality

For Ellmers, the debt crisis represents a double-edged sword cutting through global development. “It squeezes fiscal space,” he explains, “constraining governments’ ability to finance public services and development.” This creates a vicious cycle where indebted nations must choose between servicing external debts and investing in their people’s well-being.

The impact manifests in two dimensions: nationally, through reduced spending on social protection, education, and healthcare; and internationally, as debt service payments flow from poor countries to rich creditors, effectively widening the gap between Global North and South.

An Architecture of Imbalance

When asked about characterizations of the international financial architecture as “neo-colonial,” Ellmers focuses on the concrete imbalances. The IMF and World Bank operate on a “one dollar, one vote” system that gives wealthy nations disproportionate power, with the US holding veto rights. Meanwhile, crucial financial regulation bodies like the OECD and Financial Stability Board exclude smaller developing countries entirely, despite setting rules with global impact.

The reform path remains blocked, Ellmers notes, because any meaningful redistribution of voting power would reduce US influence below its veto threshold. This impasse has forced regions to develop alternatives, from China’s new development banks to Africa’s proposed stability mechanism. Yet these solutions come with their own challenges, potentially creating new dependencies even as they offer welcome alternatives to traditional donors.

The Missing Piece: A Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism

Perhaps the most glaring gap in the current system, according to Ellmers, is the absence of a fair sovereign debt restructuring process. Unlike corporate insolvency, where independent courts balance interests, indebted nations must negotiate from weakness with diverse creditors.

Ellmers advocates for a system that would prioritize human rights, ensuring that “a state needs to have the financial capacity to fulfill its human rights obligations towards citizens. This money cannot be touched by creditors.” This approach would fundamentally reorient debt negotiations from purely financial calculations to human-centered outcomes.

Climate Finance or Climate Debt?

The conversation turned to climate finance, where Ellmers describes a “scandal” in the making. Wealthy, high-polluting nations continue to provide climate finance primarily as loans rather than grants, pushing vulnerable countries deeper into debt while addressing climate challenges they did little to create.

While mechanisms like Special Drawing Rights offer temporary relief, Ellmers sees them as treating symptoms rather than root causes. The deeper issue remains the voluntary nature of climate finance commitments and the reluctance of wealthy nations to provide adequate grant-based funding.

A Path Forward: Protest and Policy

For activists and social movements seeking change, Ellmers emphasizes the need for dual strategies. The successful Jubilee campaign of the 1990s combined technical advocacy with mass mobilization, creating pressure that neither approach could achieve alone. This combination remains essential today, expert analysis must meet street-level mobilization to drive meaningful reform.

Conclusion: Reclaiming Sovereignty: The Unfinished Fight for Debt Justice

As Ellmers soberly concludes, “debt kills the SDGs.” With 3.4 billion people affected by this crisis, the need for structural reform transcends economic policy, it becomes a moral imperative for global justice and human dignity. The insights from our conversation paint an unambiguous picture: the current international financial architecture perpetuates inequality, undermines development, and fails to address interconnected crises from debt to climate change.

Yet within this challenging landscape, Ellmers’ analysis also reveals pathways for change. From institutional reforms that rebalance power toward Global South nations, to innovative mechanisms that protect human rights in debt restructuring, to the powerful synergy between grassroots mobilization and technical advocacy, the tools for transformation exist. What’s needed now is the political will to implement them.

Ellmers’ analysis leaves us with a crucial takeaway: the power to change this system lies in a combination of technical precision and unrelenting public pressure. The solutions—from a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism that protects human rights to shifting climate finance from loans to grants—are within reach. What has been missing is the political will to implement them. That will must be forged, and it must be forged now. The future of global justice, and the lives of billions, depend on it.

Source link

#MeToo’s Digital Blind Spot: The Women the Movement Left Behind

This article discusses the important issues underlying the #MeToo movement that has spread across the globe. On the one hand, the #MeToo movement has succeeded in gaining cross-border support for victims of sexual harassment, so that victims do not feel alone and have the courage to speak out. However, the #MeToo movement has not yet fully succeeded in reaching all groups. This article will explore why this massive online campaign has not truly reached those who need it most: victims without internet access, without digital devices, or who are technologically illiterate. As a result, they remain unable to voice their experiences of abuse and receive the support they need.

The #MeToo movement has indeed succeeded in changing the way we view, understand, and even produce new regulations in many countries.  This demonstrates the power of the internet.  However, the reality is that millions of victims living in villages, remote areas, or from poor families still feel alone. This is why this article will discuss the three main obstacles that have prevented #MeToo from being fully successful: limited digital access, inequality in technological capabilities and security, and weak direct activism in the field.

In my opinion, #MeToo is still far from successful. Success in changing laws has not been followed by success in helping those with proven limitations.  These three main reasons will be discussed in more detail in this article. #MeToo was initially successful because it spread quickly on the internet.  Platforms such as Twitter can connect people from all over the world. That’s amazing! However, this initial success mainly occurred in developed countries that have cheap and fast internet. This means that the movement reached more wealthy, educated people living in big cities. This shows that the movement was biased from the start because it only focused on issues faced by internet-savvy people. This was also evident when #MeToo, which had been around since 2006, only went viral and spread worldwide when Hollywood actresses started using #MeToo on social media in 2017.

Access barriers directly undermine the success of #MeToo. The movement fails to reach all those affected by abuse who live in villages, in conflict areas, and those who are technologically illiterate and lack financial resources. It is not only these disparities that set them apart, but also the lack of support and justice that is part of this difference.  Victims without a signal, without a cell phone, or without data do not have the tools to know their rights. This situation is a very common problem for many people.

This failure results in “solidarity poverty.” According to a study by Amalia, A. R., Raodah, P., & Wardani, N. K. (2024), “In low- and middle-income countries, 300 million fewer women than men use mobile internet.” This shows that the issue of access is not only a geographical problem but also an economic and gender issue.  Because they lack the ability to speak out, the #MeToo movement does not truly represent all victims, but only those who have the privilege of being connected.

In addition, there is also a gap in digital literacy and security that will become a second barrier preventing victims from successfully participating in the #MeToo movement. Victims who are technologically illiterate do not know how to use social media safely and anonymously. Furthermore, they lack knowledge about how to store digital evidence so that it is not lost. They do not understand privacy regulations, the dangers of doxing (spreading personal data), or cyber attacks. This ignorance causes them to fear speaking out even more than they fear the perpetrators.

In many countries, this issue is made more difficult by the threat of retaliation through legislation (e.g., defamation laws/cybercrime laws) that can be used against victims and lead to revictimization (ICJ, 2023). When victims speak without legal representation or digital literacy, they risk being perceived as lying. Victims in large cities have better digital safety nets than those in remote areas. This is why “Solidarity with Quotas” emerged. Only those who are digitally literate and financially secure can speak up, while others remain silent out of fear.

Due to these limitations, the #MeToo movement around the world has been dominated by issues occurring in large offices, elite campuses, or among public figures.  In line with the criticism expressed by PUSAD Paramadina, the #MeToo movement in Indonesia is considered to have not yet reached a wider audience, as the discussion is still limited to those who are literate in social media and come from the middle to upper classes (Kartika, 2019). This criticism is not only relevant in Indonesia, but also in many other countries.

However, the problems with the #MeToo movement are not limited to the internet.  The failure of activism to change offline behavior is also a weakness. Solidarity on the internet can indeed raise donations and spread information, but it often fails to translate this momentum into equitable direct assistance.  The digital resources and extraordinary public attention received by this movement have not been wisely allocated to the areas most in need. This shows that digital activism often focuses only on the most popular topics but has no real impact on the most vulnerable victims.

Despite the large number of new laws passed as a result of #MeToo, integrated service centers, shelters, and legal services are still concentrated in capital cities or large cities.  Victims who are not within reach of these services must face significant distances and costs to obtain justice. This situation shows that inequality in access to protection is still deeply rooted.  This is in line with research published by Jurnal Perempuan (2024), which states that Online Gender-Based Violence (KBGO) is not an anomaly, but a continuation of gender-based violence that has been entrenched for centuries in patriarchal systems. Therefore, gender inequality will only persist in the real world if the struggle is only carried out in the online realm and is not balanced with the provision of real services for victims.

Three major issues hindering the success of the #MeToo movement are limited access, limited digital capabilities, and a lack of direct participation in the field. This shows that a digital struggle without real interaction risks losing sight of its main goal: justice for all victims, not just those connected to the virtual world.

The world has been changed by the #MeToo movement. However, the world it has changed is one that is connected to the internet.  Millions of other women continue to struggle in silence, in places where there is no signal and no courage.  Meanwhile, some people still cannot access it. This movement has raised awareness around the world, but there are still people who are left behind, hindered by digital poverty and the gap between those who have access to technology and those who do not.  Digital justice should not be limited to viral hashtags or phone screens. In truth, solidarity is not just about thousands of posts or supportive comments. Rather, it comes from the courage to step into the real world, listen to those who are unheard, and ensure that protection is available for both those who can reach the network and those left behind. Because true justice does not require popularity to be seen, and true solidarity is measured by how far we collaborate with those who are most silent, not by how much we speak.

Source link

The Perfect Storm That Is the Philippines

As typhoon Tino (Kalmaegi, internationally) left over 200 Filipinos dead while affecting nearly 2 million people, President Marcos Jr declared “a state of national calamity.”

After the super typhoon Uwan (Fung-Wong) will add to the devastation, mass protests against huge flood control corruption are expected in the country.

In 2022, the Marcos Jr government pledged it would build on the legacy of the Duterte years and make Filipinos more prosperous and more secure. Critics claim both objectives have failed.

Billions of dollars lost to corruption                      

On July 27, Senator Panfilo Lacson warned that half of the 2 trillion pesos ($17 billion) allocated to the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) for flood control projects may have been lost to corruption in the past 15 years.

And yet, almost in parallel, President Marcos Jr stated his administration had implemented over 5,500 flood control projects and announced new plans amounting to more than $10 billion over the next 13 years.

Ever since then, Manila’s political class has been swept by allegations on corruption, mismanagement, and irregularities in government-funded flood management projects. In August, the Senate Blue Ribbon Committee launched a high-profile investigation into the irregularities, focusing on the “ghost” projects, license renting schemes and contractor monopolies.

Corruption has long been pervasive in Philippine politics, economy and society. In the Corruption Perception Index, the country has consistently scored among the worst in the region. Even in peacetime, it is at par with the civil war-torn Sierra Leone and oil-cursed Angola.

In the era of former President Duterte, corruption fight was spotlighted. Now it thrives again. According to surveys, 81% of Filipinos believe corruption has worsened since martial law was declared 53 years ago. It is compounding misguided economic policies.

Rising trade deficits, slowing investment                            

In the Duterte era, exports were led by electronics, with significant growth in tourism and business process outsourcing. Those times are now gone.

In the Duterte era, the effort was to attract multinationals, particularly Chinese firms, to serve as anchor companies that would foster Philippine suppliers. But due to the government’s geopolitics, Chinese – and increasingly Western – multinationals see too much economic and geopolitical risk in the country. And so, the investments that could have come to the Philippines have gone to Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand in the region.

Recently, even US Investment Climate Statement for the Philippines highlighted persistent corruption, a slow and opaque bureaucracy, and poor infrastructure as major disincentives to investors.

Lagging tourism                             

In Southeast Asia, Chinese tourism has played a vital role in the post-pandemic recovery. Before the pandemic, Chinese tourists accounted for 40-60% of the regional total.

Subsequently, regional recovery was fueled by Chinese tourism. The only exception? The Philippines.

In 2019, Chinese tourist arrivals in the country soared to over 1.7 million. As of September 2025, the Philippines has reported less than 204,000 Chinese arrivals for the year, a figure that is far, far below the government target. The country was banking on a 2-million visitors from China.

The sharp decline is attributed to geopolitical tensions, the suspension of the e-visa program, even safety concerns.

Even if the 2025 total would climb closer to 300,000, that would be just 15-20% of the 2019 level. It’s a catastrophic missed opportunity.

Sources: Trade deficits: Author, Philippine Statistics Authority; Tourism: Author, National Statistical Coordination Board Philippines; Exchange rate: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

BPO outsourcing at risk               

Digital economy is a major component of the GDP. But in the absence of domestic ICT anchor firms, the sector is at the mercy of Western offshoring. And that spells huge trouble at a time, when the West prioritizes trade wars, as evidenced by Manila’s costly losses in US tariff wars.

Meanwhile, geopolitics has alienated investments by Chinese ICT giants, which could have catalyzed ICT ecosystems in the country.

And there’s worse ahead. The Philippine outsourcing sector is a $30 billion industry that accounts for 7% of the Philippines’ GDP and commands 15% of the global market. Yet, one-third of its jobs in the Philippines are at risk from artificial intelligence (AI), with those in the BPO sector most vulnerable. Sadly, college-educated, young, urban, female, and well-paid workers in the services sector will be most exposed.

In addition to AI, US protectionist initiatives could perfect the jobs devastation in the Philippine outsourcing industry. Introduced in July, the bipartisan “Keep Call Centers in America Act” proposes to penalize US companies that offshore a significant portion of their call center jobs. The recent Halting International Relocation of Employment Act (HIRE Act) aims to curb outsourcing by imposing a 25% excise tax on payments to foreign workers.

If these realities kick in, US vulture capitalists can be expected to target and short the Philippines, which could compound challenges, as in the past.

Economic growth, missed opportunities                             

In early 2024, US news agency Bloomberg asked President Marcos Jr whether the Philippines could achieve an 8% growth rate. “Why not?” the president replied. “Yes, I think it is, I think it is doable.”

Yet, at the time, GDP year-on-year growth decelerated to barely 5.2%.

Have things got better? No.

In 2025, the government’s target was reduced to 5.5-6.5%. Just weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded the Philippine growth projection to 5.4% this year. More recently, economic growth slowed to just 4.0% in the third quarter – the slowest since early 2021, when the COVID-19 pandemic caused a contraction.

Unsurprisingly, critics claim the incumbent economic policies have failed. Here’s a thought experiment about the extent of that failure. During the Duterte era, Philippine GDP increased from $329 billion to $404 billion, despite the pandemic plunge. On the back of that performance, IMF expected Philippine GDP to climb close to $640 billion by 2028.

Current IMF estimates suggest that by 2028, Philippine GDP would be less than $560 billion. So, the government is set to underperform by $80 billion.

That’s the cost of missed opportunities – although the final cost could prove higher.

Source: Author, data from IMF

Source link

China Commissions Newest Aircraft Carrier With Its Electromagnetic Catapults Front And Center

China has now formally commissioned its first catapult-equipped aircraft carrier, the Fujian, into service. The commissioning ceremony put particular emphasis on the ship’s electromagnetically-powered catapults, with President Xi Jinping shown pressing the launch button inside the control ‘bubble’ built into the flight deck. This all notably comes after U.S. President Donald Trump pledged last week to sign an executive order that would compel the U.S. Navy to go back to using steam-powered catapults on future carriers.

The Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian, seen during its commissioning ceremony. Chinese Ministry of National Defense

Fujian’s commissioning ceremony took place at the naval port in Sanya on the island of Hainan on November 5, according to a press release the Chinese Ministry of Defense put out today. Examples of the key aircraft in the carrier’s air wing – J-35 and J-15 fighters, the KJ-600 airborne early warning and control aircraft, and the Z-20F helicopter – were displayed on the flight deck during the event. The conventionally-powered Fujian was launched in 2022 and has conducted multiple sea trials since 2024, including a major demonstration of its ability to launch and recover aircraft back in September.

President Xi Jinping presided over the flag-granting ceremony of the Fujian in Sanya, officially marking China’s entry into the three-carrier era (Liaoning, Shandong, Fujian).

The 80,000-ton Fujian is China’s first carrier equipped with an electromagnetic catapult system (EMALS)… pic.twitter.com/DwVwspOjjW

— 观察者网 (@realGuancha) November 7, 2025

There had already been signs earlier this week that Fujian, which has received the hull number 18, had officially entered operational service. China’s newest carrier had been in port in Sanya for more than a month. It had also been sharing a pier with the Shandong, one of the other two aircraft carriers in the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN) inventory. The Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, and Shandong are both short take-off, but arrested recovery (STOBAR) types with ski jump bows instead of catapults.

Fujian, in the foreground, seen during the commissioning ceremony in Sanya. The Shandong is seen on the opposite side of the pier. Chinese Ministry of National Defense

Nice quality side by side of Fujian with Shandong at Sanya. Illustrates well marginal waterline length increase but providing a considerably wider hull significanly improving deck traffic. The forward elevator position remains somewhat compromised vs starboard launch position. https://t.co/B9a97qvwHf

— Alex Luck (@AlexLuck9) October 5, 2025

As has been made clear, Fujian‘s electromagnetic catapults, also referred to as an electromagnetic aircraft launch system (EMALS), are an especially significant feature of the carrier’s design. There is currently only one other flattop in service globally with an EMALS, the U.S. Navy’s USS Gerald R. Ford, which we will come back to later on.

With Fujian, China has skipped over carriers with steam-powered catapults entirely, a decision the country’s Ministry of National Defense has now said was directed by President Xi himself. Steam has been the default for powering catapults on aircraft carriers equipped with them for decades. As noted, Xi was given the opportunity to press the launch button inside the carrier catapult control ‘bubble,’ though no actual aircraft left the ship’s deck during the in-port ceremony.

Official confirmation:

President Xi personally made the decision for the aircraft carrier Fujian to have the electromagnetic catapult, instead of the steam catapult that was originally designed to have.

At the end, the video shows the sled of the catapult coming to a full stop,… pic.twitter.com/RLCwgjhd7r

— Zhao DaShuai 东北进修🇨🇳 (@zhao_dashuai) November 7, 2025

In principle, an EMALS offers significant advantages over steam when it comes to sortie generation rates. The amount of force electromagnetic catapults exert on the aircraft they launch can also be more finely tuned, increasing the range of types they can accommodate, helping to reduce general wear and tear, and providing additional safety margins. The ability of an EMALS to launch smaller and more fragile designs is seen as particularly critical to opening the door to future carrier-based drone operations, something the PLAN is very actively pursuing. The video clip in the social media post below looks to highlight all of this to a degree by showing how fast and smoothly the catapult shuttles on Fujian can decelerate after being engaged.

PLAN Fujian’s EMALS shuttle goes from rocket boost to slow-roll in a split second. That extreme deceleration is insane—and it’s all real-time. Notice the flags in the background are waving at normal speed, indicating it’s not slow-mo pic.twitter.com/E3SRLnF0TB

— Fighterman_FFRC (@Fighterman_FFRC) November 7, 2025

At the same time, the U.S. experience with EMALS technology on the USS Gerald R. Ford has shown it to be hard to master. The carrier’s catapults, as well as the companion electronically-controlled Advanced Arresting Gear (AAG), have struggled with technical and reliability issues over the years. The ship also has electromagnetically powered elevators for moving munitions and other stores between its magazines and the flight deck, which were plagued with problems in the past. The Navy says it has mitigated the issues with Ford‘s catapults, arresting gear, and elevators, but official details regarding operations as recently as last year highlight continued difficulties. Other elements of the carrier’s design, especially its Dual Band Radar (DBR) system, have faced challenges, as well. Future Ford class carriers will notably feature an entirely new main radar configuration.

During a speech last month, U.S. President Donald Trump assailed the Navy over issues with Ford’s catapult and elevators. He promised to sign an executive order compelling the service to go back to using steam-powered catapults and hydraulic elevators. Though that order has yet to materialize, Trump has been outspoken about the catapult elevator issues with the Ford class on multiple occasions in the past, and has taken a very active role in U.S. naval planning and ship design, as you can read more about here.

This all stands in stark contrast to the developments in China, especially so now, with authorities in the country having said President Xi was personally responsible for the EMALS capabilities on Fujian. The new supersized Type 076 amphibious assault ship for the PLAN also has a single catapult that is understood to be an EMALS type. Other countries are also looking ahead at equipping future carriers and big deck amphibious vessels with electromagnetic catapults.

President Xi Jinping poses with pilots and flight deck personnel during Fujian‘s commissioning ceremony. Chinese Ministry of National Defense

For China, Fujian, which is now officially in operational service, has long been a very significant development, well beyond the design of its catapults. Its carrier air wing is set to offer a host of new naval aviation capabilities, especially with the introduction of the J-35 naval stealth fighter and the KJ-600. The J-35 and KJ-600 were heavily showcased during the most recent round of sea trials, as seen in the videos below.

All three of the PLAN’s aircraft carriers form a centerpiece of a massive naval modernization push that traces back to the 1990s. In addition to offering new ways to project power regionally, including as part of any future intervention against Taiwan, the flattops enable longer-range blue water operations in the Pacific and beyond. The PLAN capabilities and capacity also continue to grow thanks to a still-expanding array of larger and otherwise modern surface combatants and submarines, all being churned out by a naval shipbuilding sector that notably dwarfs that of the United States.

Fujian is also China’s first carrier that is not based on a Soviet design, which is a point of national pride. Liaoning was originally laid down in the Soviet Union as the planned sister ship to the long-troubled Admiral Kuznetsov. Work on the ship came to a halt with the fall of the Soviet Union. The government of the newly independent country of Ukraine subsequently came into possession of the incomplete Kuznetsov class carrier and ultimately sold it to Chinese buyers. There had been speculation that the ship would be turned into a floating hotel or amusement park, something that did happen in China with other ex-Soviet aircraft carriers, before it became clear that the PLAN intended to put it into operational service. The Shandong, which was entirely built in China, was derived from the Liaoning‘s design.

Liaoning and Shandong seen sailing together with an array of escorts. A formation of 12 J-15 fighters is also seen flying overhead. Chinese government

China is already reportedly working on another even more capable carrier, commonly referred to now as the Type 004, which may be nuclear-powered. Renderings related to that design that have emerged in the past have shown similarities to the Ford class, as well as France’s future New Generation Aircraft Carrier, both of which are nuclear-powered.

Altogether, Fujian‘s commissioning is another important step forward for China’s carrier force and its larger naval modernization plans. The heavy focus on its EMALs catapults could have additional ramifications for global carrier developments, including in the United States.

Contact the author: [email protected]

Joseph has been a member of The War Zone team since early 2017. Prior to that, he was an Associate Editor at War Is Boring, and his byline has appeared in other publications, including Small Arms Review, Small Arms Defense Journal, Reuters, We Are the Mighty, and Task & Purpose.




Source link

Why Brazil, a Renewable Energy Giant, Still Can’t Quit Coal

In July, one of Brazil’s last coal plants in Candiota resumed operations after significant investment from Ambar, owned by billionaires Wesley and Joesley Batista. They believe that Brazil will continue to use coal despite having over 80% of its electricity from renewable sources. As Brazil prepares to host the UN climate summit COP30, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva expressed concern that the war in Ukraine has revived coal mining.

Coal plants, including Candiota, still supply 3% of Brazil’s electricity, highlighting the influence of special interest groups and the absence of a proper transition plan away from coal. Experts like Christine Shearer from Global Energy Monitor argue that Brazil has the resources to phase out coal, but the strong coal lobby in mining regions keeps these plants running.

The Candiota plant lost its government contract last year, leading to local economic downturns and outmigration. It now sells energy on the spot market during peak hours when solar and wind energy are less available. Nevertheless, Brazil’s Congress recently passed a bill allowing coal plants to operate until 2040, which Lula could potentially veto. The government also made coal eligible for a capacity auction aimed at improving energy security by using thermal plants during low renewable output.

Critics note that including coal in these plans contradicts the goal of energy flexibility, as coal plants cannot start quickly. They argue that poor long-term planning allows coal to persist, despite a surplus of clean energy that goes underutilized due to inadequate demand and transmission infrastructure. This situation makes the government susceptible to coal and natural gas lobbying, leading to higher financial and environmental costs.

Ambar asserts that coal from the Candiota plant is reliable and necessary for power supply, denying claims of relying on political influence. They also argue that critics prioritize the interests of large energy consumers over those of smaller entities and the broader public. Keeping coal operational aligns Brazil with countries like India and South Africa, where strong lobby groups impede efforts to transition away from coal, which is crucial to local economies.

Shutting down Candiota could result in around 10,000 job losses in the region. Local coal miner Jose Adolfo de Carvalho asserts that eliminating the plant won’t significantly impact global carbon issues. The future of the plant causes anxiety among residents, with former employee Graca dos Santos emphasizing the need for a just energy transition to avoid leaving the community jobless.

Lula’s administration lacks a transition plan for Candiota, and little progress has been made in strategizing for other coal facilities. Some suggest diversifying into sectors like beef, wine, and olive oil, which could provide new jobs for former coal workers. Local union leader Hermelindo Ferreira highlights the potential job losses from shutting down Candiota while recognizing that faith in the coal industry is wavering. Ferreira encourages workers to gain new skills, such as maintenance for wind energy, as a way to adapt to future opportunities.

With information from Reuters

Source link

Is Ukraine a Viable State?

The Ukrainian parliament has disclosed that its public debt of over $190 billion will require close to four decades to repay—but this assumes the country remains viable as a “state,” the EU agrees to keep funding its budgets, and the IMF doesn’t balk at extending further loans.

There are valid reasons for concern over new Finance Ministry figures revealing that Ukraine’s public debt has expanded to unprecedented levels, requiring decades to extinguish.

The Finance Ministry’s latest report indicates Ukraine’s public and government-guaranteed debt surged to 8.02 trillion hryvnia ($194.2 billion) as of September 30. The pace and scale of borrowing have shocked MPs, who now face the grim reality that interest payments alone will drain more than 3.8 trillion hryvnia ($90.5 billion) from the state treasury over the coming decades.  

IMF Concerns

The IMF last month updated its forecasts for Ukraine’s public debt level, now expecting it to reach 108.6% of GDP by the end of 2025 and rise further to 110.4% in 2026. The IMF has revised its projections for Ukrainian debt higher despite the successful restructuring in 2024 of $20.5 billion in Eurobond securities. However, the same year, the country’s budget deficit reached $43.9 billion.

A recent report by Ukraine’s KSE Institute estimates the country’s budget gap for 2025-2028 at $53 billion per year, a sum that foreign sponsors would have to cover. These figures do not include additional military financing

The Economist recently estimated that Ukraine will require around $400 billion in cash and arms over the next four years to continue fighting and cover essential domestic costs.

The European Union’s plan to leverage frozen Russian sovereign funds to support Ukraine has hit a roadblock, with Belgium refusing to back the proposal due to legal risks. The EU had hoped to use the frozen assets, worth around $300 billion, as collateral to secure further loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for Ukraine. However, Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever has opposed the plan, describing it as “sort-of-confiscation” that exposes Belgium to significant financial and legal risks.

The EU’s failure to approve a $160 billion “reparations loan” has significant implications for Ukraine, which remains heavily reliant on Western aid to support its war effort. Ukraine’s $15.5 billion IMF program is set to expire in 2027, and the country has requested an additional $8 billion in funding. However, talks have stalled due to concerns about Ukraine’s economic viability.

EU officials are reportedly concerned that the IMF may not grant further funding to Ukraine unless the EU approves the new loan. This could trigger a cascading loss of confidence in the country’s economic viability. The IMF program’s approval is seen as crucial in signaling to investors that Ukraine remains solvent, and its rejection could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s economy.

Keeping Ukraine afloat financially is largely expected to fall to the EU given decreased American involvement. However, such a prospect has faced internal opposition. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that there’s no one else left willing to pick up the tab.” Slovakian Prime Minister Robert Fico voiced equal opposition to Brussels’ plan to continue financing Kiev’s war. And just this week, the new Czech Republic President Andrej Babiš made good on his campaign promise to advocate against more funds and arms being transferred to Ukraine.

Orbán, a longtime critic of aid to Ukraine, criticized Brussels for seeking new funding through frozen Russian assets and fresh loans, rejecting the plan as not Hungary’s responsibility.  

A Failed State?

It is worth noting that a case can be made that Ukraine was not a thriving state prior to February 2022.

After his 2019 election, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy assumed the leadership of a state suffering from economic malaise, low natality, and high rates of graft and corruption. Ukraine’s population, after peaking at 52 million in 1993, had already fallen to 45.5 million by 2013—it is 32 million today, with UN estimates concluding that it would fall by a further 20% by 2050. More than 28 million now reside outside the country.

Widespread emigration has plagued Ukraine, which was suffering from extensive brain drain well before the war. Emigration and population decline are parts of a vicious cycle—citizens leave countries due to political instability or low economic prospects, which tends to exacerbate the problems.

In addition to a declining birthrate and negative net migration, Ukraine’s economy has floundered since the nation achieved independence in 1991. Ukraine is one of the poorest countries in Europe—before the war, its GDP per capita was comparable to that of Iraq, and unemployment was about 10 percent. Ukraine’s economy is the second-most corrupt in Europe. This corruption and lack of opportunity fueled Ukraine’s pre-war emigration and poverty.

The invasion and subsequent Russian military strikes have severely degraded Ukraine’s already weak economy. Infrastructure has been devastated, with an estimated $176 billion in damage. Power systems, roads, and other critical assets have been left in ruins. Ukrainian agricultural production, which made up 41 percent of Ukraine’s exports, has fallen by a third. Finally, Russian minefields and artillery attacks have also left much of eastern Ukraine inundated with unexploded ordnance, the effects of which will continue to be felt for decades.

Moreover, many of the 6.9 million refugees and 3.7 million internally displaced persons are either unable to contribute to the country’s war effort or dependent on state resources for survival. Many who fled will likely not return; a significant number of refugees have effectively assimilated within host communities in Germany and Poland—many have built lives in other countries. Those least likely to return are individuals with high education and key skills, fostering the flight of valuable human resources.

Even if the EU continues to fund Ukraine, its difficulties will only increase. With Russia already controlling 20% of Ukraine’s territory and continuing to gain ground, the most it can hope to achieve is a stalemate until peace terms are mutually agreed upon. Continuing to resist the Russian onslaught could take years, which would further damage and depopulate eastern Ukraine. Moreover, its economy would continue to be strangled by the displacement of workers, infrastructure damage, and investor fatigue and uncertainty. Protracted warfare may achieve political and moral objectives, but the loss of wartime unity and foreign aid, combined with the high cost of rebuilding and resettling ($524 billion), is likely to create further political instability. Even in peace, Ukraine’s future is bleak.

Western leaders should be well aware of the consequences that protracted warfare can have on a state—their experiences in Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan all resulted in massive human costs and the destruction of economic and governmental institutions. Regardless of what happens at the peace table, Europe, the UK (and under Trump, to a lesser extent, the U.S.) will be forced to reckon with the specter of both a failed state dependent on foreign aid as well as a protracted migrant crisis, which Europe already faces with the Middle East and North Africa. The crisis is building, and it soon could be at the West’s doorstep.

Source link

A Bite Too Big? The Strategic Hurdles in Gunvor’s Pursuit of Lukoil

Russian energy group Lukoil is looking to sell its foreign assets due to new U. S. and UK sanctions. Gunvor, a Swiss trading firm, is interested in acquiring these assets but faces financial challenges, as Lukoil is three times larger than Gunvor based on equity. Lukoil’s foreign assets include European refineries, shares in oilfields in places like Kazakhstan and Iraq, and numerous retail fuel stations globally.

Lukoil International GmbH reported $22 billion in equity in 2024, with significant cash and fixed assets. Reports suggest that Lukoil’s asset valuation remains unchanged, and the company has no debt. In contrast, Gunvor reported equity of $6.8 billion and has a substantial cash position, but borrowing $18 billion to purchase Lukoil’s assets would be highly challenging for them.

Gunvor’s current debt-to-equity ratio is negative due to high cash reserves. However, taking on large debt to fund the acquisition could push the ratio above acceptable limits for lenders, as banks typically prefer a ratio of no more than 1.5. Alongside financial hurdles, the deal will face regulatory approvals in the countries where Lukoil operates, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. Gunvor now has more significant operations in the U. S. and has distanced itself from its past connections to Russia.

Complicating the sale, Lukoil has ongoing projects with major international oil companies, which may have rights to purchase assets if Lukoil decides to sell. Gunvor is currently waiting for approval from U. S. regulators, with plans to avoid selling back to Lukoil if sanctions are lifted. Authorities in Bulgaria and other countries have also shown intentions to change laws regarding Lukoil’s properties.

With information from Reuters

Source link