expectations

Oct. 28 (UPI) — Delivery company UPS reported on Tuesday higher-than-expected earnings but bigger job cuts in its business turnaround goals.

United Parcel Service revealed its workforce had been cut this year by some 34,000 jobs, about 14,000 more than its estimated reduction of 20,000. In addition, UPS eliminated around 14,000 corporate and management roles.

“We are executing the most significant strategic shift in our company’s history, and the changes we are implementing are designed to deliver long-term value for all stakeholders,” according to UPS CEO Carol Tome.

The cuts have already begun, UPS told CNBC in a statement.

Tome added that with the holiday shipping season quickly approaching, the 118-year-old UPS was “positioned to run the most efficient peak in our history while providing industry-leading service to our customers for the eighth consecutive year.”

Meanwhile, Wall Street saw UPS shares rise about 8% during early morning trading.

UPS, with its headquarters in Georgia, initially planned to shutter around 70 facilities.

However, around 93 leased or owned buildings closed in the first nine months of this year year.

Over the summer UPS offered buyouts to full-time drivers as part of its execution of “the largest network reconfiguration” in the company’s history.

According to UPS officials, its turnaround resulted in savings to the tune of $2.2 billion by end of third quarter and an estimated $3.5 billion in year-over-year total savings this year.

The UPS chief said the shipping conglomerate planned to incorporate artificial intelligence into its daily operations.

“The third quarter brought a wave of tariff changes, some expected, others unforeseen, and our team navigated these complexities with exceptional skills and resilience,” Tome says.

Early voter turnout is exceeding expectations in California’s Nov. 4 special election over redrawing the state’s congressional districts, a Democratic-led effort to counter Republican attempts to keep Congress under GOP control.

“We’re seeing some pretty extraordinary numbers of early votes that have already been cast, people sending back in their ballots,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in a livestream with former President Obama on Wednesday.

More than 3.4 million mail ballots have been returned as of Wednesday, with votes from Democrats outpacing ballots from Republicans and Californians registered as not having a party preference, according to a ballot tracker run by Democratic strategist Paul Mitchell. Mitchell is deeply involved in the Democratic effort, and drafted the proposed congressional districts on the Nov. 4 special election ballot.

That’s roughly the same number of ballots returned by this time in the White House contest between then-Vice President Kamala Harris and then-former President Trump in 2024, notable because turnout during presidential elections is higher than in other years.

About a million more ballots had been turned in by this point in the unsuccessful 2021 attempt to recall Newsom, but that was during the COVID pandemic.

This year’s turnout is also especially significant because Proposition 50 is about the esoteric topic of redistricting. Redrawing congressional districts is usually a once-a-decade process that takes place after the U.S. census to account for population shifts.

California’s 52 congressional districts currently are crafted by a voter-approved independent commission, but Newsom and other California Democrats decided to ask voters to allow a rare mid-decade partisan gerrymandering to blunt Trump’s efforts in GOP-led states to boost his party’s numbers in the House.

Obama, who has endorsed Proposition 50 and stars in a television ad supporting the effort, on Wednesday said the ballot measure will affect the entire country.

“There’s a broader principle at stake that has to do with whether or not our democracy can be manipulated by those who are already in power to entrench themselves further,” Obama said. “Or, whether we’re going to have a system that allows the people to decide who’s going to represent them.”

About 51% of the ballots that have been returned to date are from registered Democrats, while 28% are from registered Republicans and 21% are from voters who do not express a party preference.

It’s unknown how these voters cast their ballots, but the Democratic advantage appears to give an edge to supporters of Proposition 50, which needs to be passed by a simple majority to be enacted. About 19.6 million ballots — roughly 85% of those mailed to California voters — are outstanding, though not all are expected to be returned.

The current trend of returned ballots at this point shows Democrats having a small edge over Republicans compared with their share of the California electorate. According to the latest state voter registration report, Democrats account for 45% of California’s registered voters, while Republicans total 25% and “no party preference” voters make up 23%. Californians belonging to other parties make up the remainder.

Mitchell added that another interesting data point is that the mail ballots continue to flow in.

“Usually you see a lull after the first wave — if you don’t mail in your ballot in the first week, it’s going to be sitting on the counter for a while,” Mitchell said. But ballots continue to arrive, possibly encouraged by the “No Kings” protests on Saturday, he said.

A spokesperson for the pro-Proposition 50 campaign said they are taking nothing for granted.

“With millions of ballots still to be cast, we will keep pushing to make sure every Californian understands what’s at stake and turns out to vote yes on Nov. 4th to stop Trump’s power grab,” said spokesperson Hannah Milgrom.

Some Republican leaders have expressed concerns that the GOP early vote may be suppressed by Trump’s past criticism about mail balloting, inaccuracies in the voter guide sent to the state’s 23 million voters and conspiracy theories about the ballot envelope design.

“While ballot initiatives are nonpartisan, many Republicans tend to hold on to their ballots until in-person voting begins,” said Ellie Hockenbury, an advisor to the “No on Prop 50 — Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab” campaign committee. “As this next phase starts — and with nearly two weeks until Election Day — we expect already high turnout to continue rising to defeat Proposition 50 and stop Gavin Newsom’s partisan power grab.”

Amy Thoma, a spokesperson for the other major group opposing the proposition, said the data show that the voters who have returned ballots so far are not representative of the California electorate.

“Special elections tend to be more partisan, older and whiter than general elections, which is one of the reasons we’ve been concerned about the speed with which the politicians pushed this through,” she said.

Shares of retailer Kohl’s (KSS -2.02%) rose a dramatic 24% in a single day on Aug. 27. The reason for that spike was the company’s second-quarter 2025 earnings update.

Based on the stock’s advance, it is pretty obvious that it contained some good news, which is true. But there was also some bad news. Here’s what you need to know beyond the fact that Kohl’s crushed earnings expectations.

What did Kohl’s achieve in the second quarter?

Heading into the quarter, Wall Street analysts were projecting Kohl’s to earn an adjusted $0.29 per share. The final tally, however, came in at $0.56 per share, nearly twice as much.

On the top line, revenue totaled $3.35 billion versus an expectation of $3.32 billion. Investors like it when a company beats on both the top and bottom lines, and they particularly appreciate when the bottom-line beat is so dramatic.

Image source: Getty Images.

Given that backdrop, it shouldn’t be too surprising that Kohl’s stock rose. But there’s another factor here to consider, because the retailer has been struggling of late.

Without getting too deep into the details, the board of directors chose to part ways with the previous CEO without having found a replacement. That’s a troubling sign and, roughly three months on, the board has yet to find a permanent replacement.

The company’s income statement has been an eyesore for a while, too. Revenue and earnings have both been fairly weak since their post-pandemic bounce back. And that’s a problem that a single good quarter can’t paper over.

KSS data by YCharts; TTM = trailing 12 months.

Kohl’s turnaround is still a work in progress

First off, until there’s a new permanent CEO in place, Kohl’s corporate direction can’t be counted on. A new CEO could come in to change course, as would be a rightful prerogative. So whatever internal changes may have led to the strong showing in the second quarter can’t exactly be extrapolated into the future with too much confidence.

But that strong showing also needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Sure, Kohl’s beat Wall Street expectations by a wide margin. That’s great news. But what exactly were the numbers? On the top line, Kohl’s brought in $3.35 billion. That figure is down 5.1% compared to the same quarter of 2024. Worse, same-store sales (comps), a metric tracking the performance of stores open for at least a year, fell 4.2%.

The company is not resonating well with customers right now. As a comparison, Dollar General, which is also working on a turnaround, saw sales rise 5.1% with a comps jump of 2.8%. It benefited from higher customer traffic and an increase in the amount customers spent on each visit.

When it comes to turnarounds, Dollar General’s rebound is clearly on sounder footing than the one that’s taking place at Kohl’s. In fact, comparatively, it is hard to suggest that Kohl’s is turning its business around.

To be fair, it did improve its gross margin and managed to cut costs, but the real story is that it did less badly than before. That’s a step in the right direction, but it is not the same as an upturn. And until customers start returning to its stores, this retailer is unlikely to be able to get back on track.

Good news, but not enough good news

Yes, Kohl’s had a strong second quarter compared to what Wall Street was expecting. It is hard to complain about that. However, there is still a lot of work to do with the retailer’s business and a huge amount of uncertainty. Only the most aggressive investors should be buying Kohl’s stock story.

And even then, you need to believe strongly that the business can stop the bleeding and turn things around. That’s a big ask when the company doesn’t even have a permanent CEO yet.

Arguably the most important data release of the entire third quarter is just days away. Following the closing bell on Wednesday, Aug. 27, Wall Street’s largest publicly traded company, and the innovative leader fueling the evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), Nvidia (NVDA 1.65%), will report its fiscal second-quarter operating results (its fiscal year ends in late January).

No technological advancement has been hotter on Wall Street than AI. Empowering software and systems with AI so they can make split-second decisions and grow more efficient over time without human intervention is a game changer that can accelerate growth in most industries around the globe. In Sizing the Prize, analysts at PwC pegged the economic impact of AI at $15.7 trillion come 2030.

While an approximately 1,100% increase in Nvidia’s stock since the start of 2023 signals that the company is firing on all cylinders, a case can be made that the face of the AI revolution is priced for perfection in a market and trend that are anything but perfect. Despite its near-parabolic ascent, Nvidia will likely struggle to live up to Wall Street’s sky-high expectations on Aug. 27.

Image source: Nvidia.

Margins will be in the spotlight and likely act as a drag

In terms of AI-graphics processing units (GPUs), Nvidia has been the kingpin. Its Hopper (H100) and Blackwell GPUs have been deployed more than any other chips in high-compute data centers, with the respective compute capabilities of Nvidia’s hardware standing tall when compared to the competition.

But what’s been even more important than Nvidia’s competitive advantages is persistent AI-GPU scarcity.

The law of supply and demand states that when demand for a good or service outpaces its supply, the price of said good or service will climb until demand tapers. With an impressive backlog for its AI-GPUs, Nvidia has been able to command a premium price for its hardware, which in turn sent its generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) gross margin to a high of 78.4% during the first quarter of fiscal 2025. As long as this AI-advanced chip scarcity persists, Nvidia’s gross margin is golden.

The problem for Nvidia is that it’s no longer the only rodeo in town. Advanced Micro Devices and China-based Huawei are external competitors that are actively ramping up production of their data-center chips. However, the biggest threat to Nvidia’s GAAP gross margin potentially comes from within.

NVDA Gross Profit Margin (Quarterly) data by YCharts.

Nvidia’s top customers, in terms of net sales, have consistently been members of the “Magnificent Seven.” Most of these leading clients are internally developing AI GPUs and solutions to use in their respective data centers. Even though these chips are no threat to Nvidia’s compute advantages, they are considerably cheaper and not backlogged like Blackwell. In my view, it’s inevitable that internal chip development will cost Nvidia precious data center real estate.

More importantly, this internal development is working against the AI-GPU scarcity that Nvidia has held so dear. As the insatiable demand for AI-accelerating chips calms, Nvidia should see its pricing power and GAAP gross margin fade over time. We’ve already been witnessing steady gross margin erosion for more than a year.

Nvidia will have a difficult time justifying its valuation in multiple respects

In addition to gross margin being front and center, Nvidia is going to have a near-impossible task of justifying its valuation premium amid a historically pricey market.

To be abundantly clear, I believe Nvidia is deserving of a valuation premium thanks to its competitive advantages. The issue, while subjective, is how far this premium can be stretched before it becomes excessive.

Historical precedent tells us that industry leaders of next-big-thing trends have a relatively short leash when it comes to extended valuations. Prior to the bursting of the dot-com bubble a quarter-century ago, prominent internet leaders like Cisco Systems, Microsoft, and Amazon peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) ratios ranging from 31 to 43, respectively. Except for Palantir Technologies, whose P/S ratio recently entered a separate orbit, no megacap company on the leading edge of a game-changing technology has been able to maintain a P/S ratio in the 30 to 40 range for a substantial length of time.

Less than a week ago, Nvidia’s trailing-12-month P/S ratio was hovering north of 30. While its P/S ratio will decline a bit when it reports projected year-over-year sales growth of 53% in the fiscal second quarter, it’ll still be tipping the scales at a multiple that’s far above anything that’s been historically sustainable.

On top of being individually pricey, Nvidia is one of a handful of high-growth tech stocks that have lifted the S&P 500‘s (^GSPC 1.52%) Shiller price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to its third-highest multiple during a continuous bull market when back-tested 154 years. Previously documented occasions when the stock market was this expensive were eventually followed by declines of 20% or more in the benchmark S&P 500.

Pardon the pun following the gross margin discussion above, but there’s simply no margin for error.

Image source: Getty Images.

Historical precedent is an undeniable worry for Wall Street’s leading AI stocks

The final piece of the puzzle that helps explain why Nvidia is positioned to disappoint come Aug. 27 (and beyond) has to do with history.

For the better part of the last three decades, investors have been privy to no shortage of next-big-thing trends and game-changing innovations. While many of these trends went on to positively impact corporate America, including the advent of the internet, all endured early-stage bubble-bursting events.

The problem with hyped innovations is that investors consistently overshoot when it comes to widespread adoption timelines and early-stage utility. For example, businesses didn’t fully understand how to make the internet revolution work in their favor until many years after it went mainstream. It takes time for game-changing innovations to mature, which makes it unlikely that artificial intelligence has done so in a little over two years.

While demand for AI-data center infrastructure and AI software has been impressive, most businesses aren’t yet optimizing their AI solutions, nor are many generating a positive return on their AI investments. These are telltale signs that investors have, yet again, overestimated how impactful artificial intelligence will be, at least in the early going.

No megacap company’s growth has been more reliant on investor euphoria surrounding the evolution of AI than Nvidia, which has added close to $4 trillion in market cap in less than three years. Even the slightest hiccup can disrupt this hype.

To reiterate, Nvidia is a solid and time-tested company that isn’t going anywhere. But it’s far from perfect — and perfection is all Wall Street will settle for at this point.

Aug. 12 (UPI) — The Consumer Price Index rose slightly less than expected in July annually as tariffs showed only a minimal influence on prices.

The CPI increased a seasonally adjusted 0.2% for the month and 2.7% on a 12-month basis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The Dow Jones estimates were 0.2% and 2.8%.

Excluding food and energy, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, compared with the forecasts for 0.3% and 3%. Federal Reserve officials generally consider core inflation to be a better reading for longer-term trends, CNBC reported.

The 2% increase in shelter costs was the main uptick in the index, while food prices were flat and energy fell 1.1%.

New vehicle prices, which are tariffed, were also unchanged, but used cars and trucks saw a 0.5% bump. Transportation and medical services both rose 0.8%.

Stock market futures showed gains after the report, while Treasury yields were mostly lower.

Tariffs did affect some areas. Household furnishings and supplies showed a 0.7% increase after rising 1% in June. But apparel prices rose just 0.1%, and core commodity prices increased just 0.2%. Canned fruits and vegetables, which are usually imported and also sensitive to tariffs, were flat.

“The tariffs are in the numbers, but they’re certainly not jumping out hair on fire at this point,” former White House economist Jared Bernstein said on CNBC. Bernstein served under former President Joe Biden.

The report comes in the middle of a political shake-up in the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which releases the CPI.

President Donald Trump on Monday nominated economist E.J. Antoni as commissioner of the BLS, a non-partisan agency he has criticized.

If confirmed by the U.S. Senate, the chief economist with the conservative Heritage Foundation would replace Erika McEntarfer, who was fired by Trump on Aug. 1, alleging that she had manipulated the jobs reports for three months.

He worked for the Texas Public Policy Commission before the Heritage Foundation. He has master’s and doctorate degrees in economics from Northern Illinois University.

Last week, Antoni posted on X: “There are better ways to collect, process, and disseminate data — that is the task for the next BLS commissioner, and only consistent delivery of accurate data in a timely manner will rebuild the trust that has been lost over the last several years.”

On Nov. 13, one week after Trump was elected again, he wrote on X: “DOGE needs to take a chainsaw to the BLS.”

The White House has launched an aggressive public relations campaign promoting a narrative of economic strength during the first six months of United States President Donald Trump, with claims of his policies fueling “America’s golden age”.

But an Al Jazeera analysis of economic data shows the reality is more mixed.

Trump’s claims of his policies boosting the US economy suffered a blow on Friday when the latest jobs report revealed that the country had added a mere 73,000 jobs last month, well below the 115,000 forecasters had expected. The only additions were in the healthcare sector, which added 55,000 jobs, and the social services sector added 18,000.

US employers also cut 62,075 jobs in July — up 29 percent from cuts in the month before, and 140 percent higher than this time last year, according to the firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, which tracks monthly job cuts. Government, tech, and retail sectors are the industries that saw the biggest declines so far this year.

It comes as this month’s jobs and labour turnover report showed an economic slowdown. There were 7.4 million open jobs in the US, down from 7.7 million a month before.

The Department of Labour on Friday released downward revisions to both the May and June jobs reports, significantly changing the picture the White House had previously painted.

“For the FOURTH month in a row, jobs numbers have beat market expectations with nearly 150,000 good jobs created in June,” the White House said in a July 3 release following the initial June report.

The Labor Department had reported an addition of 147,000 jobs in June. On Friday, it sharply revised down that number to just 14,000. May’s report also saw a big downgrade from 144,000 to only 19,000 jobs gained. Trump has since fired the head of the agency that produces the monthly jobs data, alleging that the data had been manipulated to make him look bad.

Even before the revisions, June’s report was the first to reflect early signs of economic strain tied to the administration’s tariff threats, as it revealed that job growth was concentrated in areas such as state and local government and healthcare. Sectors more exposed to trade policy – including construction, wholesale trade, and manufacturing – were flat. Meanwhile, leisure and hospitality showed weak growth, even in peak summer, reflecting falling travel demand both at home and abroad.

The administration also claimed that native-born workers accounted for all job gains since January. That assertion is misleading as it implies that no naturalised citizens or legally present foreign workers gained employment.

However, it is true that employment among foreign-born workers has declined – by over half a million jobs – claims that native-born workers are replacing foreign-born labour, are not supported by the jobs data.

Jobs lost in sectors with high foreign-born employment, including tech, have been abundant, driven by tariffs and automation, particularly AI. In fact, recent layoffs in tech have been explicitly attributed to AI advancements, not labour displacement by other groups.

Companies including Recruit Holdings — the parent company of Indeed and Glassdoor, Axel Springer, IBM, Duolingo and others have already made headcount reductions directly attributed to AI advancements.

Wage growth

The pace of rise of wage growth, an indicator of economic success, has slowed in recent months. That is partly due to the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates steady in hopes of keeping inflation stable.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, wages have been outpacing inflation since 2023, after a period of declining real wages following the COVID pandemic.

Wage growth ticked up by 0.3 percent in July from a month prior. Compared with this time last year, wage growth is 3.9 percent, according to Friday’s Labor Department jobs report.

Earlier this year, the White House painted a picture that wage growth differed between the era of former President Joe Biden and now under Trump because of policy.

“Blue-collar workers have seen real wages grow almost two percent in the first five months of President Trump’s second term — a stark contrast from the negative wage growth seen during the first five months of the Biden Administration,” the White House said in a release.

However, Biden and Trump inherited two very different economies when they took office. Biden has to deal with a massive global economic downturn driven by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Trump, on the other hand, during his second term, inherited “unquestionably the strongest economy” in more than two decades, per the Economic Policy Institute, particularly because of the US economy’s rebound compared with peer nations.

Inflation

Inflation peaked in mid-2022 during Biden’s term at 9 percent, before falling steadily because of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to manage a soft landing.

A July 21 White House statement claimed, “Since President Trump took office, core inflation has tracked at just 2.1 percent.” On Wednesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett said “inflation is cooling” in a post on X.

However, the Consumer Price Index report, which tracks core inflation – a measure that excludes the price of volatile items such as food and energy – was 2.9 percent in the most recent report and overall inflation was at 2.7 percent in June.

Prices

The most recent Consumer Price Index report, published July 15, shows that on a monthly basis, prices on all goods went up in June by 0.3 ,percent which is 2.7 percent higher from this time last year.

Grocery prices in particular are up 2.4 percent from this time last year and 0.3 percent from the prior month. The cost of fruits and vegetables went up 0.9 percent, the price of coffee increased by 2.2 percent and the cost of beef went up 2 percent.

New pending tariffs on Brazil, as Al Jazeera previously reported, could further drive up the cost of beef in the months to come.

Trump has pointed to falling egg prices in particular as evidence of economic success, after Democrats attacked his administration over their price in March. He has even gone so far as to claim that prices are down by 400 percent. That figure is mathematically impossible – a 100 percent decrease would mean eggs are free.

During the first few months of Trump’s term egg prices surged, and then dropped due to an outbreak of, and then recovery from, a severe avian flue outbreak, which had been hindering supply – not because of any specific policy intervention.

In January, when Trump took office egg prices were $4.95 per dozen as supply was constrained by the virus. By March, the average egg price was $6.23.  But outbreak and high prices drove away consumers, allowing farmers with healthier flocks to catch up on the supply side. As a result, prices fell to an average of $3.38. That would be a 32 percent drop since the beginning of his term and a 46 percent drop from their peak price – far from the 400 percent Trump claimed.

Trump also recently said petrol prices are at $1.98 per gallon ($0.52 per litre) in some states. He doubled down on that again on Wednesday. That is untrue. There is not a single state that has those petrol prices.

According to Gasbuddy, a platform that helps consumers find the lowest prices on petrol, Mississippi at $2.70 a gallon ($0.71 per litre) has the cheapest gas, and the cheapest petrol station in that state is currently selling gas at $2.37 ($0.62 per litre).

AAA, which tracks the average petrol price, has it at $3.15 per gallon ($0.83 per litre) nationwide, this is up from the end of January when it was $3.11 ($0.82 per litre).

While petrol prices have gone down since Trump took office, they are nowhere close to the rate he has continually suggested. In July 2024, for instance, the average price for a gallon of petrol nationwide was $3.50 ($0.93 per litre).

GDP

On Wednesday, the White House said that “President Trump has reduced America’s reliance on foreign products, boosted investment in the US”, citing the positive GDP data that had come out that morning.

That is misleading. While the US economy grew at a 3 percent annualised rate in the second quarter, surpassing expectations, that was a combination of a rebound after a weak first quarter, a drop in imports – which boosted GDP, and a modest rise in consumer spending.

The data beneath the headline showed that private sector investment fell sharply by 15.6 percent and inventories of goods and services declined by 3.2 percent, indicating a slowdown.

Manufacturing

The administration recently highlighted gains in industrial production, pointing to a boost in domestic manufacturing. Overall, there was a 0.3 percent increase in US industrial production in June. That was after stagnating for two months.

There have been isolated gains, such as increases in aerospace and petroleum-related sectors—1.6 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively.

But production of durable goods — items that are not necessarily for immediate consumption— remained flat, and auto manufacturing fell by 2.6 percent last month as tariffs dampened demand. Mining output also decreased by 0.3 percent.

According to the Department of Commerce’s gross domestic product report, manufacturing growth among non-durable goods has slowed. While there was a 1.3 percent increase, that’s a decline from 2.3 percent in the previous quarter.

This could change in the future, as several companies across a range of sectors have pledged to increase US production, including carmaker Hyundai and pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, which just pledged a $50bn investment over the next five years.

Trade deals and tariffs

In April, the White House replaced country-specific tariffs with a 10-percent blanket tariff while maintaining additional levies on steel, cars, and some other items. It then promised to deliver “90 trade deals in 90 days.” That benchmark was not met. By the deadline, only one loosely fleshed out deal — with the United Kingdom — had been announced. As of 113 days later, the US has announced comparable deals with just a handful more countries and the European Union. The EU deal still needs parliamentary approval.

Contrary to the administration’s claims, tariffs do not pressure foreign exporters — they are paid by US importers and ultimately are likely to be passed on to US consumers. Companies, including big box retailer Walmart and toymaker Mattel, have announced price hikes as a direct result. Ford, for example, raised prices on three Mexico-assembled models due to tariff pressures.

To protect their own economies, many countries have pivoted their trade policies away from the US. Brazil and Mexico recently announced a new trade pact.

The White House and its allies continue to defend tariffs by highlighting the increased revenue they bring to the federal government, which is true. Since Trump took office, the US has brought in more than $100bn in revenue, compared with $77bn in the entire fiscal year 2024. The price of imports for consumers has only risen about 3 percent, but many expect that will change as the import taxes are passed on to consumers.

The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.

Aug. 1 (UPI) — Jobs growth was slower than expected in July, and the unemployment rate rose, showing signs of trouble for the labor market.

Nonfarm payroll for July was up by 73,000, which is higher than June at 14,000. But the Dow Jones estimate for gain was 100,000.

The totals for May and June were revised significantly, down by 258,000 from what was announced. May was revised from 144,000 jobs added to 19,000 jobs added. June’s revision went from 147,000 jobs added to 14,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Summary. Revisions come from additional reports from businesses and government agencies since the last published numbers and seasonal factors.

Unemployment raised to 4.2%, which was predicted.

“This is a gamechanger jobs report,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, to CNBC. “The labor market is deteriorating quickly.”

This is in sharp contrast to what ADP reported just two days ago. The employment company’s National Employment report said private sector employment increased by 104,000 jobs in July, a reversal of June when jobs were at a 23,000 loss, a count revised from a previously announced loss of 33,000.

“Our hiring and pay data are broadly indicative of a healthy economy,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson in a press release on July 30. “Employers have grown more optimistic that consumers, the backbone of the economy, will remain resilient.”

The health care industry added 55,000 jobs, which is higher than the monthly gain of 42,000 over the previous 12 months. Those jobs were mostly in ambulatory care services and hospitals.

Social assistance employment added 18,000 job growth in July.

Federal government employment lost 12,000 jobs in July and is down by 84,000 since January.

The household survey was worse than the establishment survey of total payroll gains. It showed a decline of 260,000 workers, with the participation rate at 62.2%, the lowest since November 2022.

The number of discouraged workers decreased by 212,000 in July to 425,000, largely offsetting an increase in the prior month. Discouraged workers are those who believed that no jobs were available for them.

Those employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.7 million, changed little in July. These are people who wanted full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs.

May 30 (UPI) — April personal consumption expenditure inflation was up just 0.1% for an annual rate of 2.1%, according to a Friday Bureau of Economic Analysis report.

“From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for April increased 2.1%,” the BEA report said. “Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.5% from one year ago.”

For the month, PCE inflation met the Dow Jones consensus forecast, but the annual rate was 0.1% lower than expected.

“From the preceding month, the PCE price index for April increased 0.1%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.1%.,” the BEA said.

Spending on housing and utilities services was up 24.7% in April, heath care services spendingincresed by 20.3%.

Gasoline spending was up 8.1%.

Spending on food and beverages, vehicles, recreational goods, financial services, insurance, clothing, footwear and motor vehicle parts all declined.

The BEA also reported personal income in the United States was up 0.8% in April.

“Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-increased $189.4 billion (0.8%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $47.8 billion (0.2%),” the BEA said in a statement.

The income increase reflected both compensation increases and higher government social benefits to individuals, according to the BEA.

In April there was a $47.8 billion increase in current-dollar PCE – comprised of a $55.8 billion rise in spending on services partially offset by an $8 billion decrease in spending for goods.

Personal savings amounted to $1.12 trillion in April while the personal saving rate was 4.9%. That rate is saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.