Energy

EU Fiscal Board Criticizes Relaxed Energy Rules

The European Fiscal Board (EFB) criticized the European Commission for allowing some of the defence spending leeway from last year to be used for transitioning to clean energy. Last year, the Commission allowed EU governments to spend an extra 1.5% of GDP annually for four years on defense against potential attacks from Russia, using a national escape clause due to uncontrollable events.

Italy, facing high fuel prices from the U. S.-Israeli war on Iran, sought more fiscal flexibility from the EU to help manage costs ahead of elections. The Commission agreed to permit 0.3% of that 1.5% for the clean energy transition. EFB Chairman Pieter Hasekamp stated that the energy crisis should drive transformation rather than increased spending, urging that fiscal credibility is critical to minimize borrowing costs.

The EFB emphasized the importance of adhering to previously agreed spending paths to reduce debt, noting that many EU countries still need to cut back post-pandemic stimulus. They expressed concern that extending escape clauses for energy could lead to excessive and untargeted financial support. The board also advised that if oil prices remain high, governments should prioritize public investment over efforts to sustain consumer demand.

With information from Reuters

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Are Hidden Oil Flows From Hormuz Reshaping the Energy Market?

Oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz have quietly increased in recent weeks, but traders say the movement reflects a fragmented and opaque energy market rather than a full recovery in global supply flows.

More than four months into the ongoing conflict involving Iran, tanker traffic remains heavily disrupted, with shipping patterns increasingly shaped by risk, secrecy and shifting political arrangements.

Tanker Traffic Shows Limited but Rising Movement

Shipping data suggests that only a small number of tankers are currently crossing the Strait of Hormuz compared with pre conflict levels.

Monitoring firms including LSEG and Kpler estimate that an average of just a few vessels per day are now passing through the strait, far below normal volumes.

Despite this, analysis of oil stored on tankers in the Gulf indicates that outflows have gradually increased, suggesting more crude is leaving the region than official shipping visibility shows.

Hidden Shipping Patterns and “Dark” Tankers

A growing share of tankers are reportedly turning off tracking systems during transit through the strait, a practice known as going dark.

This involves disabling Automatic Identification System signals, making it harder to track vessel movements in real time.

According to shipping analytics firms such as Vortexa, a large majority of outbound tankers recently used this method, reflecting rising caution among operators.

This has made it significantly harder for markets to accurately assess global supply flows and has increased uncertainty in oil pricing.

Oil Stored on Tankers Shows Gradual Decline

One key indicator of market movement is the volume of oil stored on ships inside the Gulf, often referred to as oil on water.

Estimates from Kpler suggest that volumes have fallen from a peak of around 184 million barrels in March to roughly 148 million barrels more recently.

This decline indicates that more oil is gradually leaving the region, even if it is not fully visible through standard tracking systems.

Analysts estimate that outflows have increased over recent weeks, suggesting a slow and uneven recovery in shipping activity.

Security Risks Continue to Disrupt Shipping

The ongoing conflict involving Iran has significantly disrupted maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes.

Limited access to the strait has forced producers to reduce output in some cases, while storage constraints have added pressure to supply chains across the Gulf.

Some shipping routes are reportedly being managed through informal arrangements or alternative corridors, while others rely on higher risk transit strategies to avoid detection or confrontation.

Recovery Remains Uncertain

Despite signs of increased movement, analysts warn that the situation is far from a return to normal.

A sustained recovery in oil flows would require consistent shipping access, stable security conditions and sufficient tanker availability to support exports.

Many shipowners remain reluctant to operate in the region due to elevated insurance costs and the risk of vessels being stranded or targeted.

Long Term Structural Change Possible

Industry observers warn that even if diplomatic progress leads to a formal reopening of the strait, the global oil market may not return to previous conditions.

There is growing discussion that Iran could attempt to impose tolls or control systems on shipping through the waterway, which would fundamentally alter global energy logistics.

Such a scenario could force Gulf producers to seek alternative export routes or invest in new infrastructure to reduce dependence on the strait.

Analysis: Market Stability Replaced by Managed Uncertainty

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz highlights a shift from predictable global energy flows to a more fragmented and opaque system.

While oil continues to move out of the Gulf, the lack of transparency in shipping routes is creating uncertainty for traders and pricing benchmarks.

The increased use of stealth navigation and alternative transit arrangements reflects a market adapting to geopolitical risk rather than resolving it.

As long as tensions persist, energy markets are likely to remain volatile, with supply visibility as important as supply itself in determining global prices.

Conclusion

Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly increasing, but hidden tanker movements and ongoing conflict mean the global energy market remains deeply uncertain. Without stable political conditions and transparent shipping routes, a full recovery in oil flows is unlikely in the near term, keeping traders cautious and markets volatile.

With information from Reuters.

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Iran faces a new energy imbalance, but its options are limited | Energy News

Tehran, Iran – Iran is facing more energy constraints as its summer season begins, with the widespread use of air conditioning and other needs during hotter months contributing to an imbalance between supply and consumption.

For decades, successive Iranian governments have kept utility bills well below supply costs for households and offices through a mix of implicit oil-and-gas subsidies, administered tariffs, state-controlled pricing, and sometimes direct financial support.

The negative impacts of the war with Israel and the United States on the economy mean the government has fewer tools at its disposal to deal with an energy crisis this summer.

Despite having the world’s third-largest proven crude oil reserves, Iran will have to import fuel again as demand outpaces refinery output.

President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly urged households and offices to take practical steps to limit energy consumption. Last week, he removed his jacket during a government meeting to demonstrate how Iranians can avoid turning down their air conditioning thermostats in their offices.

Even though energy costs for households are much lower than in other parts of the world, corruption, mismanagement, sanctions, chronic inflation and currency devaluation have eroded the benefits Iranians usually feel from subsidised energy prices.

In November 2019, the government announced a tiered gasoline price scheme that would see huge increases for some consumers. This sparked nationwide protests, and since then, the government has been wary about similar price hikes.

While inflation has galloped on, continued subsidies have kept fuel artificially low.

The administration’s attempts to tackle the subsidies burden due to a mounting budget crunch have resulted in only limited increases in petrol through a complex three-tiered pricing system.

This is applied via a government-issued fuel card, giving most users of Iranian-made vehicles access to 60 litres (15.85 US gallons) per month of subsidised petrol at 15,000 rials (0.8 cents) and another 100 litres (26.42 gallons) at 1.6 cents.

Iranians going over this amount then must use an “emergency card” issued at petrol stations, permitting them to an additional 30 litres (7.9 gallons) of fuel a day at 50,000 rials (about 2.9 cents) per litre.

After a new cap was imposed during the war to limit fuel consumption, each card allows only 30 litres of fuel a day. Petrol stations are issued their own “emergency card” for uses beyond this limit.

Due to supply constraints, staff at petrol stations have now reportedly been instructed to limit the use of these cards to 10 to 15 litres (up to 4 gallons) or asked not to issue any new cards at all to customers.

The Iranian government is running similar schemes for natural gas, electricity and urban water, with fears of social unrest making them averse to any sudden price hikes.

There appears to be little the government can do to bridge the divide between lower energy production and growing demand for subsidised fuel, illustrated by the perpetual queues at petrol stations since the start of the war.

“Reforming and increasing the price of energy is currently not feasible and logical due to the current economic conditions and social concerns,” Esmail Saghab Esfahani, a vice president of the state-linked Organization for Energy Optimization and Strategic Management, said earlier this week.

There have been some changes to pricing structures, but this is impacting small businesses that are already struggling with the dire economic conditions in Iran.

One 35-year-old owner of a welding workshop near Tehran, who asked to remain anonymous, told Al Jazeera that a surge in his monthly energy bill from 40 million rials ($23) per month in the previous Persian calendar year to three times that today.

“I went to the electricity company, and they only kept saying the tariffs have gone up,” he said.

“I had a similar message from a friend who is paying much more now for roughly the same usage as before, so it looks like we’re to pay for the cost of war.”

Authorities say that any complaints about escalating bills will be reviewed. They also have a system where normal household energy consumption is kept artificially low, but excessive users can be billed as much as 45 times the normal prices.

Despite having the second-largest proven natural gas reserves in the world, Iran still suffers from perpetual supply shortages during its winter and summer, when consumption is at its highest.

The situation has worsened during the war, with strikes on Iranian energy facilities seeing Iran’s gasoline production capacity drop marginally from 115 million litres (30.37 million gallons) per day to 110 million litres (29.06 million gallons). Meanwhile, consumption has jumped from 10 million litres (2.64 million litres) in 2025 to 140 million litres this year (36.98 million litres).

US President Donald Trump’s threats of more strikes on power plants have heightened fears of further blackouts and gas shortages this summer, meaning the energy crisis is likely to continue in the coming months.

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How the Dangote IPO Will Test African Markets

A $50 billion refinery valuation tests liquidity across African capital markets.

Dangote Refinery’s initial public offering is shaping up to be one of the most historic capital markets events for the continent—a referendum on whether Africa can mobilize the liquidity and investor confidence required to finance a globally competitive industry. 

Chinenyem Anyanwu, CEO of Lagos-based Dependable Securities, said the offering is attracting both institutional investors and first-time investors, including Nigerians in the diaspora.

“The expectation is very high among the investing public,” Anyanwu tells Global Finance. “Some are Nigerians outside the country, while others are foreign investors looking for exposure to a strategic African industrial asset.” Aliko Dangote, chairman of the Dangote Group, disclosed that requests for private placement had surpassed $2 billion. 

Speaking during a visit by executives from First HoldCo, the parent company of First Bank of Nigeria, Dangote said the company would be unable to meet all requests. He added that the response demonstrates investors’ confidence in the project.

Interest has also come from prominent Nigerian investors. Femi Otedola, chairman of First HoldCo, has said he plans to invest $100 million in a private placement ahead of the IPO, with proceeds from the sale of his stake in Geregu Power. 

Although early market estimates put the refinery at about $50 billion, Dangote has said advisers are still determining the final valuation. Despite plans to offer only 10% of the equity to the public, the IPO would still be unprecedented for African exchanges.

“Ten percent of the refinery is still a substantial offering,” Anyanwu said. “It is larger than the market capitalization of many companies currently listed on the Nigerian Exchange, so demand is unlikely to be a problem.”

The refinery, which began operations in 2024, has already begun reshaping Nigeria’s energy trade by reducing reliance on imported fuel and positioning the country as an exporter of refined petroleum products. Built at an estimated cost of $20 billion, the 650,000-barrels-per-day facility in Lagos, where Dangote Group is headquartered, is expected to expand capacity in the coming years.

This article appears in the June 2026 issue of Global Finance Magazine.

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LG Energy Solution sees ESS opportunity amid EV slowdown

Kim Hyun-tae, executive director of product planning and strategy for LG Energy Solution’s energy storage system business division, speaks Friday at the second Asia Today Environment Forum at The Plaza Seoul. Photo by Asia Today

May 29 (Asia Today) — LG Energy Solution sees the electric vehicle slowdown as an opportunity to expand its energy storage system business as artificial intelligence data centers drive surging electricity demand, a company executive said Friday.

Kim Hyun-tae, executive director of product planning and strategy for LG Energy Solution’s energy storage system business division, said the EV “chasm” has created risks but also opened a path for the company to shift more aggressively into ESS.

“In the carbon-neutral era, we must move beyond simply increasing renewable energy and improve both grid stability and energy efficiency,” Kim said.

Kim made the remarks at the second Asia Today Environment Forum held at The Plaza Seoul, where he gave a presentation titled “LG Energy Solution’s vision for power grid stabilization and decarbonization.”

He outlined LG Energy Solution’s strategy for shifting toward ESS and responding to electricity infrastructure needs in the AI era.

Kim said South Korea’s battery industry had built large-scale production bases in the United States, viewing it as a core automotive market. But the market contracted after the second Trump administration took office and reduced electric vehicle subsidies while changing related policies.

“We secured new business plans by proactively converting U.S. plants from EV-centered production to ESS production,” Kim said.

LG Energy Solution produces ESS products in South Korea, Europe and the United States, Kim said. Its ESS production capacity in North America is now about 50 gigawatt-hours, and the company plans to expand that to more than 80 gigawatt-hours by next year.

“The United States has the highest ESS demand after China,” Kim said. “An ESS boom is taking place in the United States because investment subsidies of at least 30% and as much as 60% are provided when ESS and renewable energy facilities are built.”

Kim said the spread of AI data centers is also driving ESS demand.

“AI data centers are called a hippopotamus that eats water and electricity because they consume enormous amounts of power,” Kim said. “Nvidia’s next-generation Rubin graphics processing unit is expected to consume about four times more power than the Blackwell chip currently being sold, so securing stable power is essential.”

Kim said global Big Tech companies are focused on “time to power,” or how quickly new power capacity can be secured.

“Because connecting to existing power grids takes a long time, demand is growing for quickly building onsite and off-grid power sources that combine solar power, ESS and small gas turbines,” he said.

Kim also proposed an ESS-based distributed power grid model as an alternative to delays in building new transmission networks.

“Large-scale electricity demand sites are increasing, such as the Yongin semiconductor cluster, but building new transmission networks or high-voltage direct current systems usually takes six to seven years,” Kim said.

“For example, a realistic alternative could be storing electricity generated from renewable energy in the Honam region in ESS and then using existing transmission networks to distribute it to demand centers,” he said.

In the medium and long term, Kim said sodium-ion batteries, sometimes called “salt batteries,” could become a game changer in the ESS market.

“When renewable energy’s share expands to about 50%, large-scale ESS will be needed to offset intermittency, but costs are currently high,” Kim said. “LG Energy Solution plans to test sodium-ion batteries that can replace lithium in the United States in 2027 and pursue large-scale commercialization in 2029.”

Kim also said the global ESS market is being reshaped around domestic protectionism.

“The United States is encouraging the use of U.S.-made products through subsidy policies based on the Inflation Reduction Act, and Europe is also pursuing the introduction of the Industrial Accelerator Act, which is being called a European version of the IRA,” Kim said. “In a blocked supply chain environment, policy consideration is also needed to protect domestic industries and strengthen supply chain competitiveness.”

Kim said LG Energy Solution is building a decarbonization system that includes its supply chain and recycling operations as it works toward achieving RE100 by 2030 and carbon neutrality across its value chain by 2050.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.

Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260529010008771

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