Economy

Jeffrey Epstein used a former Russian official with links to Moscow’s FSB intelligence services to collect information on a woman he claimed was attempting to blackmail his business associates, according to documents released by the United States Department of Justice.

Epstein reached out to Sergei Belyakov, a former deputy minister of economic development, for advice in 2015 about what he described as an attempt to blackmail a group of “powerful” businessmen in New York, the documents contained in the latest tranche of the so-called Epstein files show.

“I need a favor,” Epstein wrote to Belyakov in a July 2015 email, describing an extortion attempt by a Russian woman who had arrived at the Four Seasons Hotel in New York the previous week.

Epstein said the situation was “bad for business for everyone involved” and asked for “suggestions”.

Belyakov, a graduate of the FSB Academy, Moscow’s institute for training intelligence personnel, wrote back that he needed some time to “get information about her” and that he would meet a man who knew the woman the next day.

Several days later, Belyakov sent Epstein a roughly 100-word description of the woman’s background and what the ex-official described as her “sex and escort” business.

“She has nobody behind her,” Belyakov said, adding that she was believed to have “no patronage”.

Belyakov said “business problems” may have led the woman to resort to blackmail, and suggested that denying her entry to the US would be a “real threat” to her business.

Epstein, the FSB Academy graduate and US billionaires

Belyakov, who took up the position of board chairman at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum after leaving the Kremlin in 2014, relied on Epstein for access to high-profile figures in the financier’s orbit, according to the documents.

After a meeting with Epstein in May 2014, Belyakov told the convicted sex offender that he did not know many people who could offer “new horizons and prospects”.

“And I’m looking forward for next meeting with you,” he told Epstein.

In July 2015, Belyakov sought Epstein’s help to organise meetings with American venture capitalist Peter Thiel and the billionaire heir and businessman Thomas Pritzker.

“Sergey – let me know when you are in SF and it would be good to find a time to meet,” Thiel wrote to Belyakov in an email in July 2015, following an introduction by Epstein.

A little over a week later, Belyakov told Epstein that Thiel and Pritzker had shared their views on Russia’s economy and other topics, calling the meetings “very helpful”.

“By the way I was surprised that they had a lot of information about Russian economy and their view about our society,” Belyakov wrote, adding he hoped to see both businessmen again in Moscow.

In 2016, Belyakov sought Epstein’s feedback on proposals he wished to discuss with business leaders in the US.

Epstein told Belyakov he liked the idea, which was not specified in the emails, but that he should get a “good English speaking editor” before sharing business proposals, and there were “pretty women” who could fill the role.

Efforts by Al Jazeera to contact Belyakov, including through the St Petersburg International Economic Forum and the e-commerce company Ozon, where he served as managing director from 2021 to 2024, were unsuccessful.

Thiel’s foundation did not respond to a request for comment. Pritzker declined to comment through a spokesperson for his foundation.

Epstein also sought to arrange meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to the documents, though there is no indication he was successful.

“I think you might suggest to putin, that lavrov, can get insight on talking to me,” Epstein wrote in an email to former Norwegian Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland in June 2018.

Jagland, who is under investigation in Norway on suspicion of corruption in his dealings with Epstein, wrote back that he would “suggest” the idea to Lavrov’s assistant.

Epstein, who died in 2019 while in prison awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, has long been the focus of speculation that he worked for or with intelligence agencies on behalf of various countries, including Israel.

He had close ties with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak during his lifetime, with the two men exploring numerous business ventures and regularly exchanging correspondence on personal matters.

Barak’s former aide Yoni Koren, an ex-Israeli military intelligence officer who died in 2023, also stayed at residences belonging to Epstein for long stretches while receiving cancer treatment in the US in the late 2010s.

New York City, United States – For 14 years, BC Dodge built a career telling other people’s stories as a marketing and communications professional in the nonprofit sector in the Washington, DC area in the United States. But in late 2024, that stable career hit a speed bump.

He was laid off from his job amid a round of restructuring. The news landed without warning. One day he had a job, and the next he was sitting at home, staring at the numbers, trying to figure out how to keep paying the mortgage and putting food on the table.

He is married, and his partner is a teacher, but the math did not work. One salary might cover things for a little while, but not long enough to maintain long-term stability.

So he started applying for new work immediately. Over three months, he submitted 350 job applications. He got six interviews.

After months of searching, something moved.

He advanced in the hiring process for a Washington, DC–based nonprofit, making it far enough to sit across from senior leadership. It felt like he finally caught a break.

Then the ground shifted again. As Dodge was interviewing for a new job, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was advising the administration of US President Donald Trump on how to shrink the federal government, and that meant cutting funding to agencies that provide contracts and funds to swaths of nonprofit organisations around the country. The effects rippled outward, and Dodge was caught in the crosshairs.

Contracts were cancelled and funding streams dried up. Nonprofits that depend on government support had to pull back and scale down ambitions — those very same nonprofits from whom Dodge sought employment.

“I got a call from HR saying they weren’t going to hire for the position, and that all hiring was on hold. I couldn’t argue with them, because I’d been hearing the same thing from organisations I’d spoken to since I started applying. ‘We were relying on federal funds, and now they’re gone,’” Dodge said.

Then it was back to the drawing board. He began searching yet again, but this time with a cloud of uncertainty looming over the entire industry he works in. Dodge finally took what he could get — part-time work in his field. The pay was well below what he had been earning before, but he accepted it anyway. Some income, he reasoned, was better than none.

The result is underemployment. Underemployment can manifest in several ways, often when workers are seeking full-time work but can only find part-time positions, or when the jobs they work do not fully utilise their skills and training. It is generally associated with industries like restaurants or retail, but it also reaches into fields with fewer resources and shrinking opportunities, including the nonprofit sector, where jobs are increasingly precarious and full-time stability is harder to find because of the wave of government funding cuts in 2025.

The upshot is lower incomes for underemployed workers, sometimes below the cost of living or even pushing them into the ranks of the working poor.

Underemployment has been on the rise, according to the Economic Policy Institute, which has tracked the rate of underemployment since 1978. Today, 8 percent of the US population is underemployed, up 0.5 percent from 2024 and it is up 1.1 percent from 2023.

At the same time, many in the US are seeing their expenses increase.

The impact of tariffs has hit low-to-middle-income earners harder than others. Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found that lower-income households are paying a higher percentage of their post-tax income on goods subject to tariffs as opposed to higher-income households, all while costs for necessities like healthcare are increasing.

Earlier this year, Congressional leaders failed to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. Premiums increased by an average of 144 percent, according to analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

“Some people have lost their jobs and found new ones that pay less, but others have kept their jobs, but their healthcare premiums have increased. Their electric bills have also gone up. Their salaries no longer cover basic living costs,” Jillian Hishaw, a personal bankruptcy lawyer in Charlotte, North Carolina, said.

She said that because of increased costs like these and a stalling job market, she is seeing an increase in inquiries about personal bankruptcy filings in efforts by potential clients not to lose their homes to foreclosure.

“In one day last week, 85 foreclosures were filed in Mecklenburg County [where Charlotte is located]. Foreclosures happen daily, but 85 in a single day is unusually high. Two years ago, the daily average was 10 to 20, but now filings are approaching triple digits each day,” Hishaw said.

Shrinking options

The surging economic pressures hit workers across various sectors, including financial and administrative services. An Ohio-based accountant who did not want his name to be published, has worked a patchwork of accounting and administrative jobs over the past few years. In March, he was laid off from a research organisation in central Ohio.

After months of searching, he found new work, but not as an accountant, and the pay falls far short of covering his cost of living.

“I’m working as a sales coordinator, which I really don’t want to be doing, but it was the only thing I could land with how bad things are. It’s not enough to live on,” he said.

The labour market is under strain. Layoffs reached more than 1.1 million in 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, while job creation failed to keep pace, with just 584,000 jobs added. As a result, more workers are settling for underpaid or part-time work that does not meet basic living expenses, including Dodge and the accountant.

Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, says that economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and developments in artificial intelligence has put businesses across a wide set of sectors essentially on pause — maintaining the status quo or scaling back.

“People who are already at the margins are getting kicked out entirely, and that’s placing pressure on everyone who is clinging to a job,” Evermore told Al Jazeera.

In January, one of the key measures of underemployment, the number of people who work part-time for economic reasons, such as an inability to find full-time work or had their hours reduced, hit 4.9 million. It was a 453,000 decline from the month before, but is up 410,000 from this time last year, according to the January jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.

Long-term unemployment jumped 386,000 from this time a year ago to 1.8 million, although it remains unchanged compared with the previous month.

The nonprofit sector has been hit particularly hard in the last year, losing 28,729 jobs in 2025, up sharply from 5,640 losses the year before, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Like the Ohio accountant, Dodge has been searching for new opportunities since he lost his full-time role a year and a half ago. He has applied for 460 jobs and only landed a handful of interviews.

Working weekends, washing dishes

The market is only getting tighter. US employers cut more than 108,000 jobs in January, while employers only announced intentions to hire 5,300 new roles for the month, the lowest on record since Challenger, Gray & Christmas started tracking that in 2009.

“Employers aren’t wanting to make any big investments right now, including increasing salaries to their workforce,” Evermore, who served as a policy adviser in the US Labor Department during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, added.

In December, labour market turnover remained stagnant. Amid economic uncertainty and a slowdown in new job growth, many Americans are hanging on to the jobs they already have. Job openings fell to 6.5 million, down 386,000 from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Hiring and separations, which include layoffs and firings, were unchanged. That followed November’s report, which similarly showed little movement in both new hiring and the number of workers leaving their jobs.

Combined, that means that for the underemployed, finding a new role, either part-time to augment their existing income, or to replace it altogether, is increasingly difficult for people like the accountant.

“I’m also working weekends at a friend’s cafe, washing dishes, and I’m still applying and interviewing for other opportunities. But it’s the same story, no offers. At the same time, I’m debating whether to switch professions or even go back to school, even though I already have a master’s degree,” he said.

That shared distress has also created an unlikely sense of camaraderie among those struggling to get by, even as the outlook remains bleak.

Dodge finds it in late-night scrolls through Reddit, watching strangers narrate versions of the same stalled search.

“I doomscroll a lot,” he said, “getting depressed about the state of politics and the global economy, and taking some solace in knowing I’m not the only one struggling to find viable employment after 12, 13, 14, even 15 months.”

For now, that recognition of others stuck in the same place, hitting the same walls, is enough to keep him moving forward, submitting applications and waiting for a response that might not even come.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year outlook projects worsening long-term United States federal deficits and rising debt, driven largely by increased spending, notably on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments.

Compared with the CBO’s analysis this time last year, the fiscal outlook, which was released on Wednesday, has deteriorated modestly.

The CBO said that the deficit for fiscal 2026 – President Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year in office – will be about 5.8 percent of GDP, about where it was in fiscal 2025, when the deficit was $1.775 trillion.

But the US deficit-to-GDP ratio will average 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in fiscal 2036 – far above US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal to shrink it to about 3 percent of economic output.

Major developments over the last year are factored into the latest report, including Republicans’ tax and spending measure known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” higher tariffs, and the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, which includes deporting millions of immigrants from the US mainland.

As a result of these changes, the projected 2026 deficit is about $100bn higher, and total deficits from 2026 to 2035 are $1.4 trillion larger, while debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101 percent of GDP to 120 percent — exceeding historical highs.

Notably, the CBO says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.

Rising debt and debt service are important because repaying investors for borrowed money crowds out government spending on basic needs such as roads, infrastructure and education, which enable investments in future economic growth.

CBO projections also indicate that inflation does not hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate until 2030.

A major difference is that the CBO forecasts rely on significantly lower economic growth projections than the Trump administration, pegging 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2 percent on a fourth-quarter comparison basis, fading to an average of about 1.8 percent for the rest of the decade.

Trump administration officials in recent weeks have projected robust growth in the 3-4 percent range for 2026, with recent predictions that first-quarter growth could top 6 percent amid rising investments in factories and artificial intelligence data centres.

CBO’s forecasts assume that tax and spending laws and tariff policies in early December remain in place for a decade. The government’s fiscal year starts on October 1.

While revived investment tax incentives and bigger individual tax refunds provide a boost in 2026, the CBO said that this is attenuated by the drag from larger fiscal deficits and reduced immigration that slows the growth of the labour force.

Jonathan Burks, executive vice president of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center said “large deficits are unprecedented for a growing, peacetime economy”, though “the good news is there is still time for policymakers to correct course.”

‘Urgent warning’

Lawmakers have recently addressed rising federal debt and deficits primarily through targeted spending caps and debt limit suspensions, as well as deploying “extraordinary measures” when the US is close to hitting its statutory spending limit, though these measures have often been accompanied by new, large-scale spending or tax policies that maintain high deficit levels.

And Trump, at the start of his second term, deployed a new “Department of Government Efficiency”, which set a goal to balance the budget by cutting $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse; however, budget analysts estimate that DOGE cut anywhere between $1.4bn to $7bn, largely through workforce firings.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said the CBO’s latest budget projection “is an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”

“This election year, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition. And the financial markets are watching. Stabilising our debt is an essential part of improving affordability, and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.”

Winning bidders include Chevron, Eni, QatarEnergy and Aiteo.

Libya has assigned new oil and gas exploration rights to foreign firms, aiming to revamp the sector after years of civil strife.

The country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced the results of its first licensing round since 2007 on Wednesday. Winners included US oil giant Chevron and Africa’s largest privately-owned energy company, Nigeria’s Aiteo.

Other winning bidders were consortia: Spain’s Repsol with British Petroleum, Eni North Africa with QatarEnergy, and Repsol with Hungary’s MOLGroup and Turkiye Petrolleri.

The licensing awards signal some renewed interest in Libya’s oil sector, which foreign investors had long been wary of after the country erupted into conflict in 2011 with the overthrow of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. But experts said the response was smaller than expected.

“It is likely that lingering uncertainty over Libya’s political dysfunction and insecurity in the areas around the blocks on offer were factors in the underwhelming response,” Hamish Kinnear, an analyst with UK-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, told the AFP news agency.

Libya remains politically divided between rival administrations in the east and west, and disputes over the central ‌bank and oil revenues often disrupt production at key oil fields.

‘Return of trust’

The licensing round, in which five of 20 blocks on offer were awarded, follows a $20bn deal last month with France’s TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips to boost oil production over 25 years.

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, who announced the deal, said the goal was to increase daily oil production by 850,000 barrels within that timeframe. Libya currently produces approximately 1.4 million bpd.

The round used a new, more investor-friendly contract model to replace the rigid terms that previously deterred investment.

NOC chief Masoud Suleman said a committee will be created to further “improve the terms” of the bidding system and negotiate with candidates to grant unallocated blocks.

Speaking at the bid’s announcement ceremony, he said “a return of trust and resuming institutional work in one of the country’s most important sectors after a long period of pause and challenges.”

“They are part of a broader national path that aims for prosperity, growth, the return of normalcy,” he added.