divided

Trump, who so bitterly divided us, was awful enough to unite us. At least temporarily

The Dodgers lost four straight playoff games to the Milwaukee Brewers in a humiliating end to their season.

But this was worse.

Steve Hilton lost to Xavier Becerra in the race for governor before “Jeopardy” aired.

But this was worse.

President Trump lost early, late and often Tuesday night in the midterm elections.

In contests across the country — for governor, for Senate, for the House — he had told people to vote as if he was on the ballot.

They did, and Democrats ran the table, taking the House and then the Senate.

Trump lost big, inspected the wreckage, and claimed the problem was lousy candidates.

Has he lost a step? I would have expected him to say the election was stolen. All of the elections.

But maybe he realized that for all intents and purposes, his political career is over. Trump was trounced, the country triumphed, and the long national nightmare is over, but for the rest of his lame duck presidency.

I don’t think we were witnessing a national love affair with Democrats, nor do I think Tuesday night’s winning political party has all the answers on any of the day’s pressing matters. The Dems have their own problems, including an identity crisis and a shortage of bankable presidential prospects.

But the country’s voters signaled loud and clear that they’re tired of:

The lies.

The insults and name-calling.

The hatred.

The chaos.

The self-dealing.

The lack of civility.

The absence of humility.

Last week I turned on the news and saw Trump making fun of the name of newly elected Michigan Sen. Abdul El-Sayed, a Muslim.

An awful thing to see a president do, but here’s what’s worse:

I wasn’t surprised.

Then I saw him say at a political rally that he had looked at a man’s rear end, “and I’ve never done that before…Off the record, women, yes, men no, OK?”

Again, no surprise.

He once mocked the physical appearance of a female presidential primary foe, as well as the wife of a male foe, and insisted for years that the first Black president was secretly from Africa.

Trump had always been able to get away with this sort of numbskullery. His true believers were willing to put up with it as long as he seemed true to his promise of working on their behalf. Until they could no longer deny that he was only working on his own behalf.

The cryptocurrency profiteering. The bloody ballroom. The gold-plating of the White House.

All of it while working people, including staunch supporters, struggled to understand the goofball tariffs and wondered when the promise of lower grocery prices would be delivered.

Trump and the Republicans might have prevailed Tuesday night if not for the war in Iran, which everyone is still paying for at the gas pump. The president who promised we’d stay out of international conflicts went all in, for no good reason, then said it was over, we won, except that it’s not over, and we didn’t win.

And there’s no exit plan.

But so what?

It’s not like Trump is paying for gas. His golf cart is probably electric.

In the beginning, as a Republican populist who tapped into justifiable voter disapproval of Democratic leadership, Trump was onto something when he first ran for president. The scapegoating of immigrants was odious even then, but in 2016, at a Trump campaign rally in Arizona, I caught a glimpse of his appeal to adoring fans who cheered the presidential candidate’s vow to build a border wall, strengthen the military and make America great again. A struggling low-wage worker told me Trump was the best hope for a new day.

“We’re going to come back and rebuild our country,” Trump told the approving crowd that day in Arizona. “You will never be disappointed with me. … You are going to be so proud of your president.”

The act worked for way longer than I would have predicted. But 10 years later, and halfway through a second presidency, the gig is up. Voters said yes, they are disappointed, and no, they’re not so proud.

We thought we were having a mid-term election.

It turned out to be a political wake.

But also an awakening.

Red states voted for blue candidates in a nearly total Trump rebuke.

As I watched the returns Tuesday night, I thought about my daughter–an earth science grad student–and her generation. She’s 23, which means that for almost half her life, Trump has been a political force. Imagine being that young and living in a country that twice elected one of the most divisive and scabrous figures in history.

A man who attacked judges, invaded American cities, insisted ad nauseum that a lost election was stolen, pardoned the Jan. 6 barbarians, exonerated political donors and allies, called climate change a con job, gutted environmental protections and upended America’s global in scientific research.

It’s easy to understand why younger generations have lost faith in elections, both primary parties and the political/corporate establishment.

But on Tuesday, voters of all ages turned out and said enough already, in states red and blue.

The man who so bitterly divided us might ultimately have united us, at least for an evening.

That doesn’t mean that there is consensus on much of anything. Surely calamity awaits, just beyond the shadows, and new species of political trolls are being spawned as we live and breathe. But there was hope, on election night, in the collective declaration that we deserve and demand better.

Trump once said he was so popular and powerful, he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue in New York, shoot somebody, and not lose any voters.

It might have been true once.

But he’s lost them now.

steve.lopez@latimes.com

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Michigan voters closely divided between Rogers and El-Sayed | Elections

Less than two weeks before the midterm elections, some Michigan voters are still deciding between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in the race for a US Senate seat. At an event in Detroit this week, one voter questioned why El-Sayed won’t say his ‘real name.’

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Global Economy Struggles to Achieve Balance in Divided Times

As leaders gathered in Bangkok, discussions highlighted the fractures between economic winners and losers.

The global economy appears to be on a fragile foundation, and the finance ministers of Argentina, Greece, Nigeria, and Thailand agree that all economies should get their houses in order.

“Ideally, when you put your fiscal house in order, it shouldn’t be because of experience,” said Kyriakos Pierrakakis, the Minister of Economy and Finance for Greece and President of the Eurogroup, during a panel discussion that took place at the annual International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank meetings in Bangkok. “It should be because of inspiration.”

Although the IMF projects global economic growth at 3.1% throughout 2026, its composition has changed.

The global economy is increasingly split between a handful of nations with AI-driven economies and those without. The IMF has upgraded AI-driven economies while it downgraded many fuel-importing nations and those affected by war. 

However, AI may be a curse and a blessing.

“The global economy’s dependence on AI investment enthusiasm creates a vulnerability, with risks of disappointment cycles, as per Amara’s Law, and the potential loss of human control over AI systems,” said fellow panelist Kristalina Georgieva, IMF Managing Director.

Exacerbating the situation are growing excessive export-import imbalances. Developing countries struggle to compete with export-oriented countries that have built their manufacturing base over decades. At the same time, developing economies struggle to compete for capital against an economy that takes in capital for productive use but leaves little for the rest of the world.

“The biggest source of imbalance comes from the two largest economies, China and the United States: China not having enough domestic consumption, exporting a lot, and the U.S. the opposite, not saving enough, having a high level of debt and deficit,” she said. 

Achieving Resiliency

It’s best for a country to put its fiscal house in order during periods of economic calm, but human nature tends to act only amid a crisis, said Georgieva. “Nonetheless, we have excellent examples of countries that have brought back fiscal discipline. They have taken the reforms, structural reforms that promote growth.”

The formula for building a resilient economy is discipline, transparency, and consistency, which, according to Olayemi Cardoso, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, build credibility, said Cardoso, who spoke on the panel.

To address a persistent currency crisis and the loss of investor confidence, Nigeria eliminated its fuel subsidy in 2023 and, in June 2024, implemented multiple foreign exchange rates.

“These should have been done a long time ago, but they were not done,” he said.

The central bank also enacted an aggressive 800-basis-point (bp) increase in 2024, including a single 400-bp increase. As a result, the central bank brought inflation down by about 20 percentage points, to about 15%, and raised foreign reserves to their highest level in 18 years.

“Painful though they were, it brought back credibility because we were consistent in saying certain things and doing them,” said Cardoso.

In Argentina, the government eliminated its fiscal deficit, which was 5% of GDP, by cutting spending by 30% and growing the economy for the third consecutive year through increased exports. These measures helped bring inflation down to approximately 30% today from 211% in 2023.

“We have a fiscal surplus, a commercial surplus, and a current account surplus,” said panelist Luis Caputo, Argentina’s Minister of Economy. “The way we will continue in the following years will be by fulfilling our goal of reducing the weight of the state in the economy.”

Thailand aims to maintain macroeconomic stability amid an energy shock and a few years of supply-chain fragmentation. Even as part of the AI value chain, it has kept sovereign bond yields low. 

“Our government 10-year yield is around 2.3%, so much lower than the U.S. and Europe, thanks to fiscal discipline,” said Ekniti Nitithanprapas, Thailand’s Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister.

The Thai government has also made structural changes to turn these economic shocks into opportunities for low-income small and mid-sized enterprises by helping them adapt to current shocks and prepare for future ones.

It also expects to work more closely with its ASEAN partners to expand trade and investment opportunities to establish a resilient economy.

“For example, 22% of our trade is with ASEAN countries compared to 60% for the E.U.,” he said. “So, we could do more trade together.”

In Europe, the EU is working to close gaps in its pan-European reforms, which each member state must implement.

“Fragmentation in Europe is a strategic tax,” said Greece’s Pierrakakis. “The IMF has made a calculation that the barriers that exist in services or in manufacturing are equivalent to having a 40%-44% tariff for manufacturing.”

Shocks Happen

Even if countries can build a resilient economy, Argentina’s Caputo was skeptical that it would withstand future shocks.

“It looks like these shocks are going to take longer than anyone of us would have anticipated or hoped,” he said. “If that is the case, resilience by definition will have to last longer. And we don’t want to rely that much on that because resilience is there until it is not anymore.”

Caputo also noted that the whole world wouldn’t need to collapse to create a need for resilience. “Just one important country getting into trouble could probably generate systemic risk and affect us all.”

When questioned about France’s current economic distress, Greece’s Pierrakakis responded, “Well, I would say first we’re mindful, but we’re not alert. And we’re not alert in the sense that we know the fundamentals are there and they’re strong. If there’s one key word about Europe, it’s resilience.”

Rob Daly covers the economy and fintech. He can be reached at rdaly@gfmag.com

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