decision desk hq

How to watch the data behind 2026 midterm election calls

As voters cast their ballots in the much anticipated midterms on Tuesday, TV networks will give their viewers a closer look at how the election sausage is made.

As usual, anchors and analysts will be at their network news desks when votes are counted to determine whether the Democrats can take the House and the Senate from Republicans for the final two years of President Trump’s second term, along with gubernatorial races across the country.

But TV news organizations are rolling out additional tools and options for viewers who want a more granular look at how the vote is counted and winners are declared, responding to a heightened interest in national politics and a demand for greater transparency in an age of media distrust.

“In the last few years, as we’ve seen incredibly close elections with higher turnout and tight political divides, people are understandably looking for more transparent ways to understand how and why elections turn out the way they do,” said Jennifer Agiesta, CNN’s vice president of election and data reporting innovation.

Chuck Todd, the former NBC News political director and “Meet the Press” moderator who was among the first analysts to do deeper dives into voting data on TV, compared the increased appetite to how viewers watch sporting events. Tighter races pull in more eyeballs, especially at a time when the electorate is deeply divided over Trump’s actions and polices.

“Do people sit and watch and want more things when things are blowouts, or do people want more information when it’s decided by a nose hair?” Todd said. “You can’t discount that this is a generation of political competitiveness that feels existential.”

Todd noted that in the 21st century, the House, Senate or White House has changed hands in 11 out of 13 elections, while all but one of the seven presidential contests have been won by less than five percentage points.

While NBC News is delivering an unprecedented 13 hours of midterm coverage to its affiliates, data junkies can see analyst Steve Kornacki’s real-time number crunching at the county and precinct level on the “Kornacki Cam” stream, available on YouTube and and the network’s streaming platform. Kornacki drew millions of viewers online with his big board and trademark khakis throughout the primary season, when he streamed on nights the network was not on the air. This time around, the network will turn to him throughout the night for a broader look at the results, but he’ll be streaming continuously for those who need an immediate numbers fix.

“I’m hoping they will live stream on the phone and the broadcast on TV,” Kornacki said in a recent interview. “They can be complementary.”

Kornacki will have plenty of company in this election cycle. While CBS News chief political correspondent Ed O’Keefe has the assignment of breaking down the numbers on TV, the network is also serving up a live stream of “The Nerd Show,” with Anthony Salvanto, the network’s director of elections and surveys, and Caitlin Huey-Burns, a CBS News congressional correspondent. They will provide a continuous deep dive into the numbers as they come in.

Nexstar’s cable news channel NewsNation will have a camera fixed on the analysts from Decision Desk HQ, the upstart company that provides voting data to media outlets and corporations.

“You are going to hear my voice about the data, what we’re seeing, not seeing, why we think we can make a projection or why we need to hold off,” said Scott Tranter, Decision Desk HQ’s director of data science. “Sometimes we get data that may look good, but it may not be enough [to call a race]. So you kind of get that back and forth, that ebb and flow.”

Subscribers to Nexstar’s digital political site The Hill will be able to see voting data at the same time as the Decision Desk HQ team, which was the first to call the race for President Trump in 2024.

Todd is among the growing number of independent journalists who have launched their own programs on streaming platforms. He will host a live stream on election night with veteran Washington pundit Chris Cillizza through their Noosphere platform, which will also have full access to Decision Desk HQ data. Todd and Cillizza are partners with Decision Desk HQ on the special, which will be developed into a daily program in 2027.

CNN is also offering its digital users more advanced voting analysis though a new tool called Sightline. Sightline will provide the data the network uses to determine the outcome of races, showing the outstanding vote total, geography, vote method and comparisons with past elections. Viewers can see the information before CNN chief national correspondent John King presents the results on the network’s Magic Wall.

Fox News anchor Bill Hemmer will deliver results and vote counts on an augmented reality set. But users of the Fox News app will have an AI-powered function that provides instant access to the network’s reporting on any contest.

“The idea is to really offer a personalized experience for the users of the national picture or their state or race that they want to look at specifically,” said Doug Rohrbeck, executive vice president of Washington News & Politics for Fox News Media. “The folks who log on can ask about specific races, voting trends, candidates, when polls close and a grid of the balance of power as it’s populating.”

The major networks each have their own decision desk where statisticians, political scientists and analysts pore over vote counts, historical trends and polling to determine a winner. They are typically insulated from the anchors and pundits during coverage, but occasionally show up on the air when necessary.

Showing the work carries its own risk. Early returns can swing sharply as mail-in and election day ballots are counted at different times, and those shifts have been seized on as evidence that something is amiss. Fox News had to put its decision desk chief Arnon Mishkin on camera in 2020 when the network’s viewers and the Trump White House were angered over its early but accurate projection that Joe Biden won Arizona in the presidential election.

NBC News is betting on openness. The network aired a lengthy segment on the Thursday’s edition of “Today” to explain how its decision desk operates and comes up with its election night projections.

“The audience wants to know the work behind the calls and they really want to understand it,” said Rebecca Blumenstein, president-editorial for NBC News. “By showing that work, we feel that it’s a really important part of building trust.”

Another element driving interest is online prediction markets, where users can wager on election results — and the betting companies are now paying for some of the coverage. Kalshi is a sponsor of CBS News’ coverage and of Todd’s election night stream. DraftKings is sponsoring election coverage on CBS’ owned television stations, including KCBS in Los Angeles.

It could take days to determine which party has the majority in the House and Senate. But Kornacki said there will be a strong indicator in the 7 p.m. Eastern hour when results come in from Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, where both parties are competing for an open seat held by Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican who is running for Senate. Trump has won the district by 15 points or more in each of his three presidential runs.

“It’s an early test,” Kornacki said. “If the Democrats were able to win that or be really close, that’s a sign they’re having the kind of night that they’re kind of dreaming of.”

Source link