Crimea

Ukraine appeared to have begun large-scale strikes against Russian shadow tankers attempting to supply occupied Crimea with fuel, as an energy crisis on the peninsula worsens.

At the same time, Ukraine has continued to cause fuel shortages in Russia itself, striking refineries deep inside the country, including, for the first time, the Omsk refinery in Siberia, Russia’s largest, 2,500km (1,553 miles) from the Ukrainian border.

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert Brovdi said his forces had struck 19 Russian tankers, a cargo ship and a ferry between July 6 and 8, including nine tankers on the night of July 7.

Ukrainian Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk told newspaper Suspilne that Russia had rerouted fuel supplies to Crimea after Ukraine deprived it of overland routes.

“They had few options left. It’s either a land corridor or a sea connection,” Pletenchuk said. “As far as we know, they don’t use the Kerch Bridge for such transportation in the necessary volumes,” he said, referring to the bridge connecting Crimea to Russia.

Ukraine detonated a truck on the bridge in 2022, setting alight a fuel train that had been travelling alongside it and demonstrating the risk of using the bridge for large volumes of fuel.

Ukraine pivoted to attacking Crimea in the past few weeks after disabling the oil offloading terminal at Novorossiysk, on the opposite Russian coast, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.

“We were slowing down the militarisation of our peninsula occupied by Russia,” he said. “We cut off the logistics and took control of the fuel and energy complex. We showed what it means to operationally control the sky at a specific point, at a specific time.”

The Ukrainian Presidential Office in Crimea said these strikes had caused “a management crisis on the peninsula”.

In Sevastopol, fuel has stopped being sold to civilians, and more than a dozen Crimean regions are suffering from electricity blackouts.

Ukraine continued strikes on the peninsula in the past week, destroying seven Sukhoi aircraft and two sheds containing Shahed aerial drones at the Saky airfield on July 3, the Kerch oil transhipment terminal on July 6 and three hangars at the Guardsman airfield on the same day.

Ukraine also kept up pressure on Russia, launching what mayor Sergei Sobyanin said was its largest strike on Moscow in two years.

More than 400 Ukrainian drones were downed while heading for the city on July 7, which was the first day of a NATO summit in Ankara.

“When our drones weren’t flying to Moscow and St Petersburg, [Russian president Vladimir]  Putin didn’t think much about it. He understood that the war was far from the Kremlin,” Zelenskyy told the Financial Times.

“When not a hundred drones, but a thousand would start flying to Moscow, and when he would feel and see this, he would be advised to move somewhere beyond the Urals. This would be a moment like a new page on the path to ending the war.

Ukraine struck several energy targets during the week, furthering its twin goals of starving Russia of petrol and export revenue from oil.

The SBU said it struck and set alight the St Petersburg oil terminal on July 4, which it described as “one of the largest oil product transshipment terminals in the Baltic region”. Zelenskyy posted video purporting to show the terminal in flames.

On Sunday, Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces had struck the Slavneft Yanos refinery in Yaroslavl, 700km (430 miles) from Ukraine, the Ust-Luga refinery on the Baltic Sea, and the Omsk Refinery. Russia’s defence ministry said it had shot down 613 of 625 Ukrainian drones detected in the airspace overnight.

Ukraine’s Air Force said that Russia had lost 42.7 percent of its refining capacity over the past year, and suffered $13.5bn of damage to oil infrastructure.

These strikes have cumulatively caused petrol and diesel shortages in the Russian market, with consumers in urban hubs lining up to fill their cars.

During the week, Ukraine also struck the Kremny EL Group in Bryansk, which it said manufactured microchips, semiconductors and other electronics for the armed forces.

Zelenskyy said the air war would prove “decisive”, because in 2026 Ukraine’s ground troops had effectively stopped Russia’s slow advance of the last two years.

Independent assessments have suggested that Russia gained a total of 97 square kilometres (37 square miles) in the first six months of the year.

“The war is ongoing, but the front line is no longer moving. When the front line is almost not moving, and the enemy cannot invade by sea, the sky remains,” Zelenskyy said.

US President Donald Trump handed Zelenskyy a major victory at the NATO summit in Ankara on Wednesday, saying he would license Ukraine to produce interceptor missiles for anti-air systems.

Zelenskyy has been campaigning for a licence to build Patriot interceptors, which he believes Ukraine can do faster and more cheaply than the US or European manufacturers.

But Zelenskyy said Patriots ultimately are not the answer for European air defence, announcing his intention to develop FREYA, a Ukrainian-designed anti-ballistic system like Patriot “but with a higher production capacity and at a lower cost”.

Is Russia losing?

Zelenskyy’s commander-in-chief warned against dismissing Russia too easily.

“It’s still too early to talk about a qualitative turning point in the war,” Oleksandr Syrskii wrote on his Telegram messaging channel. “The aggressor is showing signs of exhaustion, but retains significant offensive potential,” adding that Russia “plans to extend the front line, which already exceeds 1,250 kilometres (777 miles).”

Putin relaunched the narrative that Moscow will overrun the eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk, four-fifths of which Russia already controls.

In a televised meeting with his top generals on July 3, Putin was told that Russia has seized 3,000sq km (1,160sq miles) of Ukraine so far this year, and “liberated” 133 settlements. His commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov, also claimed to control the cities of Kupiansk in Kharkiv, and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk.

The Institute for the Study of War, which uses geolocated footage to assess advances, estimated that Russian forces have a presence in 2.4 percent of Kupiansk and 37 percent of Kostiantynivka – and most of that in the form of infiltrations, not firm control.

The Ukrainian military has estimated the number of Russian servicemen in Kostiantynivka at between 100 and 250.

Putin was told that Russian forces seized 636sq km (245sq miles) of Ukraine in June alone. The ISW estimates the real number at 30sq km (11sq miles).

Kostiantynivka is politically important to the Kremlin because it is the first of four heavily fortified cities, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which Moscow must seize to take control of Donetsk – which Putin considers a puppet state and has repeatedly prioritised.

“The capture of Kostyantynovka by the troops of the South battlegroup opens a direct road for further advance to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, other fortified areas in the Donbas, and is, of course, the key to liberating the entire territory of the Donetsk People’s Republic,” Putin said.

The Donbas includes Donetsk and Luhansk, which Putin mistakenly claimed to have taken in its entirety.

“I understand that we should no longer speak of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Kostyantynovka line, but simply of the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk line,” Putin told the gathering.

The Ukrainian SBU launched a drone strike on Russia’s Saki Air Base in Crimea on Friday. The attack, the latest in a string of strikes against Russian aviation and logistic assets on the peninsula, is part of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest campaign to inflict so much pain on Russia that Vladimir Putin moves to end the war.

SBU claimed to have destroyed several Russian tactical combat jets today as well as on Wednesday. Saki is home to the Russian Navy’s 43rd Independent Naval Attack Aviation Regiment, which flies mostly Su-30SM Flankers. It has been a frequent target of Ukrainian strikes and was hit by a devastating attack in the early days of the war.

“At the ‘Saki’ airfield, seven hangars storing aviation equipment were hit, in which Su-30SM, Su-30, and Su-24 fighter jets and frontline bombers were located,” SBU added. “According to preliminary information, at least seven aircraft were destroyed or damaged.”

SBU told us it had no visual evidence from either attack to back their claim, but we reached out to Vantor to see if they had any satellite imagery of the base. Vantor provided us a picture that showed damage to four hardened aircraft shelters that was taken this morning. Some of shelters have clear damage to their structures, others literally have their doors blown off and laying on the taxiway in front of them. From the overhead angle of the image, it is impossible to determine if aircraft were in those shelters at the time, and if they were, what, if any damage, was inflicted. In addition, we can’t tell when this happened from just one picture, although imagery we reviewed from Planet Labs dating to June 27th doesn’t appear to show the same damage to the shelters.

It is very possible that any aircraft in those shelters could have been damaged by fire, as the SBU claimed, or by shrapnel, but we just don’t know. Regardless, the shelters remain generally intact. We have written frequently about Russia’s efforts to protect its aircraft this way, including on Crimea.

Regardless, these attacks come after months of Ukrainian strikes on bridges connecting the peninsula with the mainland and on it’s fuel infrastructure. The situation has gotten so bad on Crimea that the officials there have tried to initiate gasoline rationing, making life miserable at the height of the traditional summer vacation season there.

Amid the ongoing Ukrainian pressure campaign, a Russian military officer said he recently took part in an exercise to see what it would take to fend off Ukrainian attacks on Crimea.

“I participated in the operational command-staff military game ‘Crimean Alert,’” Russian reserve colonel and military expert Viktor Murakhovsky claimed on Telegram. “The game was dedicated to the landing of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crimea and our measures to repel it. The staffs were organized according to the scenario from officers (in reserve and retired) of our armed forces.”

“The ‘Blue’ side acted unconventionally, widely using the latest means of detection and destruction,” he added. “The ‘Red’ side was forced to act ‘on the defensive.’ Overall, the exercises went smoothly and at a high level thanks to the organizers.”

Clearly, Ukraine does not possess much of a Navy, let alone landing craft to carry out a Normandy-style invasion. However, that is not the scenario played out in this wargame, according to an analysis by the award-winning The Insider news outlet.

“The scenario clearly simulates an amphibious or maritime operation: numerous blue arrows and routes are drawn across the Black Sea, extending from the direction of Odesa and the northwestern Black Sea toward Crimea,” the publication noted. “Red defensive positions are marked on the map within Crimea, particularly around Sevastopol, in northern Crimea, and in the eastern part of the peninsula.”

The map “shows the Kerch and Kerch Strait area on the right—also densely marked with red icons—indicating that the game scenario accounted for the eastern flank in addition to western Crimea and Sevastopol,” The Insider proffered. “Judging by Murakhovsky’s post, the scenario likely envisioned not a classic World War II-style amphibious landing—with hundreds of ships approaching the shore—but rather a modern operation involving the mass use of drones, long-range precision-guided weapons, reconnaissance systems, and possibly small, high-speed boats.”

As we have frequently reported, Ukraine has for years been using its air and sea drones to attack Russian air defenses and radars inland, its seaports and largely driven the Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea through the use of its innovative sea drone campaign.

Ukraine, as we reported in the past, has already carried out several incursions on the peninsula. In October 2023, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) sent a small raiding party into a point north of Tarkhankut Bay. It was carried out by troops traversing the Black Sea on Sea-Doo GTX 300 personal watercraft. They were loaded down by grenade launchers, machine guns, man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS) and other equipment needed to assault Russian positions. You can read more about that raid in our interview with the unit commander here.

Those attacks did not lead to a sustained presence, but they were not intended to. They were meant as a morale-boosting reminder to Moscow that Crimea would never be completely out of reach.

Whether Ukraine can marshal enough of its asymmetric assets and troops to really carry out any sort of a wide-scale amphibious landing on Crimea remains questionable bordering on impossible. One thing, however, is not. Ukraine is inflicting significant amounts of pain on Russian forces and assets on the peninsula.

UPDATE: 4:49 PM EDT –

Vantor provided us with additional satellite images of Saki. A very cursory analysis shows that six out of seven hardened aircraft shelters were damaged, with doors blown off of four of them.

There appears to be possible damage to two other shelters seen in a wider shot of Saki.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Gas sales in Russian-controlled Crimea have halted after Ukrainian drone strikes on the peninsula’s supply route. Drivers are now looking for other modes of transport.

June 21 (UPI) — The Russian government on Sunday halted fuel sales to civilians and businesses not considered vital to functioning and security in Crimea.

Sergey Aksyonov, the governor of Crimea, announced people would be turned away from gas stations amid a fuel shortage and logistical difficulties related to the war with Ukraine, the BBC reported.

“Further decisions regarding the current situation in the republic’s fuel market will be announced at a later date,” he said in a post on Telegram.

The announcement came amid new attacks by Ukraine on energy and transportation infrastructure on the Crimean Peninsula, Politico reported. Russia illegally annexed the peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, and it has been at the center of fighting between the two countries ever since.

Ukraine has repeatedly targeted Russia’s energy supply in an effort to hobble its defenses and ability to transport troops and machinery. Fuel facilities in the Kerch Strait in Russia’s Krasnodar region have also been attacked.

Aksyonov said a Ukrainian drone attack on an oil depot in Kerch killed four people and injured 28.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the attack was a “just response to Russia’s brutal attacks.”

“Russia understands only strength, and our long-range strength is certainly working for peace,” he wrote in a post on X.

Palestinian journalists in Gaza marked World Press Freedom Day by honouring colleagues killed and targeted by Israel, as the territory becomes the deadliest place ever recorded for media workers. Pope Leo XIV called for greater protection of reporters ‘pursuing the truth’, especially in war zones.

Ukraine’s military intelligence says it struck two large landing ships in Sevastopol Bay in Russian-occupied Crimea.

Ukraine and Russia have attacked each other overnight, with Ukrainian drones striking Russian assets in Black Sea ports and Russia hitting several regions across Ukraine, including the capital Kyiv.

Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence unit claimed attacks on two Russian landing ⁠ships and a radar station in Sevastopol Bay in Russian-occupied Crimea. It says the $150m vessels were successfully hit and radar equipment destroyed.

In Russia, Ukrainian drones targeted the port of Tuapse, killing at least one person, injuring another and damaging transport infrastructure, according to regional governor Veniamin Kondratiev.

The strike was the second on the port in three days, hours after a fire from a previous attack was extinguished.

Russia’s Defence Ministry said air defences destroyed 112 Ukrainian drones overnight.

Ukraine reported a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian territory overnight, including in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson, Sumy and Zaporizhia regions.

Drones hit a car in the city of Putyvl in Ukraine’s border region of Sumy, injuring three women, as well as two homes in Kyiv’s Brovary district, damaging them and injuring one person, according to Ukrainian officials.

“Tonight, the enemy is again attacking the Kyiv region with drones. Under the sights are peaceful people, homes,” said Kyiv regional military administration head Mykola Kalashnyk.

Russian attacks also damaged railway infrastructure in the northeastern city of Kharkiv, according to the Interfax-Ukraine news agency.

Over the past 24 hours, Russian attacks in the Kherson region killed one person and injured seven, while injuring four others in the Zaporizhia region, Ukrainian officials said.

Moscow’s forces have hit civilian areas almost daily since the all-out invasion of its neighbour more than four years ago, with the regular assaults occasionally punctuated by massive attacks.

More than 15,000 Ukrainian civilians have died in the strikes, according to the United Nations.

There have been several rounds of United States-brokered negotiations in recent months, but they have failed to reach an agreement to stop the fighting, with the process further stalled since the outbreak of the US-Israel war on Iran.

Even before the war on Iran, progress towards a peace deal in Ukraine had been slow, due to differences over territorial issues.

Ukraine has proposed freezing the conflict along current front lines. Russia rejects that, saying it wants the whole of the Donetsk region, despite it being partly controlled by Ukraine – a demand Kyiv says is unacceptable.