costs

Don’t rely on Medicaid? Tax bill will drive up costs to your healthcare too | Tax News

United States President Donald Trump’s signature piece of budget legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, will likely raise healthcare costs, experts have said. While the Medicaid cuts will directly impact those who depend on the programme, the consequences will extend to others as well.

The 869-page bill, which includes roughly $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid over the next decade, passed in the House along party lines, with only two Republicans – Representatives Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania – breaking ranks. It will be signed into law by Trump on Friday.

In addition to patients, Medicaid funds also help financially strapped hospitals and other healthcare facilities, and the cuts could lead to their closures.

Apart from this, almost 12 million people could lose health insurance by 2034 due to reductions to both Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act marketplace, according to a Congressional Budget Office analysis.

Experts warn the new law will drive up costs elsewhere in the system. Patients may face higher out-of-pocket expenses, while hospitals could be forced to lower the quality of care, raise prices, or close entirely due to the financial strain.

“There is the mistaken belief that cuts in Medicaid will only affect those on Medicaid. Many hospitals, clinics, and healthcare organisations depend on Medicaid funding for their operations. Therefore, cuts in Medicaid can adversely affect the types and quality of services they provide,” Bruce Y Lee, professor of health policy at the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health and Health Policy, told Al Jazeera.

“In fact, a number of healthcare organisations depend so heavily on Medicaid funding that they could go out of business with significant cuts.”

The cuts would hit rural hospitals hard, according to an analysis from the National Rural Hospital Association (NRHA). About 20 percent of the US population lives in rural areas, where Medicaid covers one in four adults, a higher share than in urban areas, and plays a large part in financing healthcare services.

The cuts are expected to result in a 20 percent reduction in funding for rural hospitals in half of all states.

That will hurt patients like Martha Previte and her partner Jim Earl, who live in rural Maine. Both have type 1 diabetes and rely on regular hospital visits for a range of procedures, including blood tests and kidney treatment.

“I fear that these cuts are going to close hospitals that we rely on to get care, and we’re not going to have anywhere to go,” Previte told Al Jazeera.

This bill could result in as many as 338 hospitals closing around the US. There are already nearly 800 hospitals that are facing financial hardship.

“Our goal is to help ensure hospitals can remain open for their communities, and people can get the care they need when they need it. Our nation’s health and economic future depend on it,” the American Hospital Association said in a statement condemning the bill’s passage and calling it “an extremely disappointing and very difficult day for health care in America”.

Those that stay open could result in cuts to essential care like chemotherapy and behavioural health services.

The bill does include $50bn for rural hospitals to offset the additional financial strain they will face. But because of cuts to Medicaid, that funding will not make enough of a dent to keep healthcare costs from rising and healthcare facilities from shuttering.

Analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation found that Medicaid cuts would still lead to a drop of $155bn in federal Medicaid spending on rural hospitals over the next 10 years.

“While the President promised to lower costs for Americans, this bill is set to spike premiums and other healthcare costs,” Elizabeth Pancotti, managing director of policy and advocacy at the Groundwork Collaborative, told Al Jazeera.

Rural hospitals in the state of Missouri will be the hardest hit and are expected to lose an average of 29 percent of Medicaid funding. While Missouri’s Senator Josh Hawley, in a May op-ed in the New York Times, said cuts to Medicaid would be “politically suicidal”, he and his fellow Missouri senator, Republican Eric Schmitt, voted in support of the bill before it moved to the House of Representatives on Tuesday.

The cuts are also expected to affect nursing homes disproportionately in urban areas, according to an analysis from Brown University School of Public Health, which forecast that 579 nursing homes could shutter. Those at highest risk have a Medicaid payer share greater than 85 percent. It was found that the Medicaid cuts overwhelmingly affected nursing homes in California, Georgia, Illinois and Texas.

Looming Medicare changes

Medicaid is not the only healthcare programme seeing cuts. While Medicaid is intended for those who are low-income, Medicare covers healthcare for those 65 and older, as well as some others who have disabilities. Some patients, like Previte, receive both.

“Medicare is my primary insurer, and Medicaid picks up what Medicare does not cover. I am a type 1 insulin-dependent diabetic of 41 years with serious complications. Medicare covered my recent hospitalisation and upcoming outpatient procedures,” Previte told Al Jazeera.

The Republican bill could also indirectly lead to cuts in Medicare services because of the statutory Pay‑As‑You‑Go Act of 2010. Under this, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget is required to keep a “scorecard” to track net increases to the deficit, with a goal to “eliminate the overage”.

Because of that, the programme may not get all of the money allocated to it, a potential $490bn loss in access to funds over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office, affecting coverage for people who rely on Medicare.

“The whole thing [the tax bill] is a stark abandonment of human social responsibility,” Previte’s partner Earl said.

Affordable Care Act changes

The upcoming law also makes significant changes to the Affordable Care Act, otherwise known as Obamacare. It shortens the annual enrollment period for healthcare coverage by about a month and drives up premium costs for those who need it.

According to analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, insurance premium prices could increase on average by $1,296 a year.

Those who get their healthcare coverage through the exchange will also need to annually update their personal information, which includes income and immigration status, rather than being enrolled automatically.

The changes will cause a strain on the small business economy. Last year, as many as 3.3 million self-employed individuals and small business owners relied on the marketplace for health insurance.

“If you’re a young business owner, already stretched thin by housing costs, child care bills, and health premiums, this bill just made your future harder,” Richard Trent, executive director of Main Street Alliance, an advocacy group for small businesses, said in a statement.

Former President Barack Obama, in a post on X, weighed in as the bill strips parts of his signature policy, a key part of his legacy.

“It will increase costs and hurt working class families for generations to come,” the former president said in a post before the bill’s passage.

“This will be another branch of a limb of a disastrous tree. I’m concerned about what this means for our future care. The thing with diabetes, like many ailments, they’re livable if they’re treated properly. You can live a long, happy, healthy life, but when you’re deprived of healthcare, maintenance-of-health care, and things like that, then a whole Pandora’s box of disasters can happen to your health,” Earl added.

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Amid Soaring Therapy Costs, Nigerians Turn to Religion

On a Tuesday morning, Kaneng Fom’s* mind told her she was going to die.

The day had begun normally: Kaneng took a short walk down her estate street with her brother, watched her favourite anime, and hoped for an update to the show, before finally getting in the car. Her mother was waiting at the steering wheel to drive her down the road in the Gwarimpa area of Abuja, North Central Nigeria, to get a loaf of bread. The ride was usually smooth for Kaneng, but not that day; the crushing feeling of death and panic consumed her.

That feeling unsettled her mind, tightened her chest, and overwhelmed her breath. Her mother was talking to her in the car, but Kaneng’s anxiety prevented her from truly hearing. She knew how best to describe what was happening; she had learned this phrase online when trying to understand the strange anxiety that randomly overpowers her: a panic attack.

Her mother, however, seeing this for the first time, has different verbiage to handle the condition.

“Jesus!” she yelled.

“She was screaming, ‘Jesus, Jesus,’ until I eventually calmed myself down,” Kaneng recounts. “After she asked me a few questions, she said that I should pray more and if I prayed more or invited the Holy Spirit to go about my day, I would have fewer panic attacks.”

Nigeria is a religious country. About 99.4 per cent of the country’s population is affiliated with a major religion, according to the World Factbook. For those deeply connected to its culture and way of life, like Kaneng’s mother, religion is viewed as a solution to nearly every problem, including mental health challenges.

But while religion offers a source of strength, its dominance also reflects a deeper issue: mental health care in Nigeria is expensive, under-resourced, and often out of reach. As therapy costs rise and stigma remains high, for many Nigerians, then, the default response to psychological distress isn’t clinical but spiritual.

Research by the West African Academy of Public Health shows that many Nigerians like Kaneng are first and solely pushed to seek spiritual sustenance when they face a mental health challenge. 

‘Why worry when you can pray?’

Such was the case for 22-year-old Tolu*, a member of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC), who identifies with several symptoms from autism, Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), and trauma from sexual assault.

“I come from a very Catholic family, so obviously I believed the church should be my first option,” he said. “I was at a church retreat, and my head just wasn’t clear, so I went to the priest for guidance. I was like (to the priest) ‘I don’t think I’m okay mentally’ and all he told me to do was pray. I didn’t ask him for any particular help, but he didn’t provide any particular help either. ”

A study by researchers at the Department of Religion and Cultural Studies, University of Nigeria, Nsukka in the country’s South East, revealed that some Nigerian religious bodies have positioned themselves as entities capable of curing any struggle, mental illness included. The study explains that this posture, in some cases, allows religious leaders to extort Nigerians who come to them for help. 

Despite estimates from the African Polling Institute suggesting that 20 to 30 per cent of Nigerians may have mental illness, there is a significant lack of care and attention dedicated to addressing their needs. The Association of Psychiatrists in Nigeria (APN) also estimates that only about 300 psychiatrists are tending to mentally ill Nigerians, with only about 4.72 per cent of Nigeria’s total health budget allotted to mental health care. For many, accessing a psychologist can be a painful struggle, and when they do get access, the psychologists often lack proper resources.

In the context of widespread need and inadequate support, spiritual solutions become the more accessible, familiar, and often the only option available.

This “faith-centred healing” approach is echoed by popular religious leaders like Jerry Eze, an evangelist and founder of an Abuja-based Pentecostal ministry, Streams of Joy, who conducts services where the “spirit” of depression or anxiety is cast away on the authority of Jesus. 

During a sermon to thousands of congregation members on June 22, Pastor Jerry described anxiety as something people position themselves in. 

“If I position in fear, my seed (blessings) will be eaten. If I position myself in anxiety, then my seed (blessings) will be eaten,” he claimed during the sermon, giving many a sense of power over something they may feel helpless about. To fix this issue, he insisted his devoted listeners command the spirit of fear away, saying, “It does not matter whether there is change (in your fears) or not, keep commanding!”

When Ruth Anya*, a Streams of Joy member, was asked whether Pastor Jerry encouraged the congregation to seek professional mental health care, she replied, “He doesn’t discourage us, and has even encouraged people to speak to loved ones if they are struggling. But we all know we are at Streams of Joy for our miracles.”

People of other faiths face similar situations, where spiritual explanations are often prioritised before other possibilities are explored. In May, Suhayla Yusuf*, a young Muslim woman, told HumAngle that she had turned to an Islamic platform to share her distress over the intrusive thoughts associated with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), but was simply told the thoughts were from the devil, with no further support offered. OCD has different subtypes, and in Islamic discourse, Suhalya’s experience aligns with what is commonly referred to as waswas, a term that translates to “whisperings of the devil.”

The cost of mental wellness

In 2024, Nigeria’s minimum wage was increased to ₦70,000. While this policy has been slow to implement, the price of therapy and the general cost of living in the country have continued to skyrocket beyond what the average Nigerian makes monthly.

To better understand the cost limitation to seeking mental health support, HumAngle researched and found that a leading psychiatry resource in Nigeria offers therapy sessions that range in price from ₦15,000 to ₦155,000. The cost depends on factors such as your location, the therapist’s qualifications, the type of therapy provided, and whether the session is conducted online or in person. Regardless of the circumstances, many Nigerians may find this cost of a single therapy session unaffordable.

“Therapy is largely inaccessible to the average Nigerian. The cost of treatment, especially private services, remains out of reach for most,” Okwuchukwu Mary-Ann, a clinical psychologist, told HumAngle. 

Her reasoning is backed by data: the World Bank estimates Nigeria’s rural poverty rate is 75.5 per cent. The World Health Organisation has reported that those living in poverty are the most likely to experience mental health issues. Therefore, a ₦15,000 session is far too expensive for the majority of Nigerians who need mental health support.

“Finances pose a big problem for me,” Kaneng noted. “I’ve always been supportive of therapy, but I’ve never been able to afford to go. I would ask my parents, but as I told you, my mother thinks I need to pray more, and my father, our breadwinner, agrees.” When asked if they tried to help her beyond this advice, Kaneng said, ‘My mother prayed whenever I brought it up. That was it.’”

Tolu also faces the same challenge, explaining, “I diagnosed myself through a test sent to me by a friend. A big hindrance towards me getting a formal diagnosis is money.”

Morayo Adesina*, a student at the Pan-Atlantic University in Lagos, South West Nigeria, who tried therapy in 2022, told HumAngle it wasn’t a favourable experience. “It wasn’t easy to find a therapist in Nigeria,” she claimed. “As a student, my only options were the school therapist who may potentially expose my secrets to school authorities, or a therapist gotten through my mother who may potentially expose certain aspects of my worldview to her that I didn’t want her to know about.”

Despite her reservations, Morayo had no choice but to trust her mother’s judgment. This path led her to two therapists, the second of whom she stayed with for some time.

“The second therapist I saw cost around ₦50,000 for the first session, and ₦30,000 for subsequent sessions. That was three years ago, though, and the price today should be over ₦70,000,” she said. 

When asked why she stopped, Morayo responded, “I did about four to five sessions before I started to feel like I was wasting my mum’s money.” 

With a few sessions and over ₦100,000 spent on therapy, Morayo was able to reap some benefits from her sessions with the therapist, who eventually gave her a diagnosis for the persistent pessimism and gloominess she has carried as long as she can remember. 

The verdict was depression, anxiety, and, most importantly, a way for Morayo to feel more at ease with herself; “this diagnosis made me feel more normal because it felt like I could at least tie what was wrong with me to something outside of the feeling that I was probably irredeemably broken.”

However, Morayo doesn’t think the sessions were enough, telling HumAngle that the cost and number of therapy sessions necessary to fix what she thinks is wrong with her come at an expensive price. The American Psychological Association has shown that 15 to 20 therapy sessions are essential to heal 50 per cent of people with mental illness, meaning Morayo’s five sessions only scratched the surface. When people like her, a middle-class student, can’t afford to pay for therapy sessions, the chances of the majority lower class seem far less likely. 

Rashid Usman*, an Arabic and Islamic teacher, agrees that the cost of therapy is too high, but believes surrendering oneself to Allah is the perfect way to avoid mental illnesses. “Mental illness is a condition that affects your thoughts, behaviours and emotions when you are too worried rather than allowing your creator to control your affairs,” he argued, noting that instead of spending money on therapy, it is much cheaper to position God at the heart of your problems. 

“People should be taught how to handle and manage anything that could lead to this problem in the way of God, at the worship centre,” he added. Rashid’s answer explains the reason some look to divinity rather than therapy.

Between stigma and possession

The cost of therapy is a significant barrier for many individuals, but the stigma associated with mental illness also presents a considerable obstacle. When Kaneng was asked about the difficulties of managing a mental illness in Nigeria, she sighed and responded, “It’s truly challenging, and it becomes even more difficult when I can’t express my feelings to my parents or convey my desire to seek therapy. I often feel like an outsider.”

Tolu also experienced the same thing: “It is challenging. You go through things people do not understand, and sometimes you want to explain, but you just dismiss the idea because they will most likely misunderstand your situation.”

Nigerian society has taught people like Tolu and Kaneng that it is better to be silent, whispering the particulars of their mental stress only to God. 

Rashid puts it plainly when asked if he thinks mental illness has a spiritual cause, stating, “Yes, spiritual attack from Jin [demon] can alter mental stability.”

Religious leaders from different faiths preach messages that align with his views. In 2022, Adeola Akinniyi, a pastor at Mountain of Fire and Miracles Ministries, published a sermon titled “The Enemy Called Depression,” in which he described mental illness as a spiritual attack.

“The enemy is using the weapon of depression against believers in the church, manipulating sisters, brothers and everyone. That you have money does not stop the enemy from attacking you with the weapon of depression,” he told his congregants.

Faith and therapy 

In the ongoing conversation about the role of religion in mental health, a question arises: Can communion with God truly lead to complete healing from mental struggles? While Kaneng leans toward a hopeful affirmation, her response reveals a more complex truth.

“I’m not irreligious,” she cuts in quickly. “And I do feel some relief when I pray, but never in the middle of a [panic] attack, and they always come back.  I’ve begun to believe that praying or fasting can’t fix certain things, but they provide relief.”

Mary-Ann highlights the risks of relying solely on religious intervention for mental health issues. “This mindset of only seeking religious help can delay the pursuit of additional support, which may worsen symptoms or lead to chronic problems,” she noted.

Several other medical sources warn that unchecked mental illness can become permanent over time, an issue Kaneng thinks befell her.

“My panic attacks are less intense now that I’ve done research into what they are and I try to manage them,” she said. “But over the last two years, they have become more frequent, and I consider them a part of my daily life.”

There are religious leaders who understand the place of mental healthcare, however. 

Femi Ogunleye*, a youth pastor at the Cathedral Church of Advent in Abuja, believes mental health care is not restricted by God, explaining, “Christianity only discourages sin. Wanting help healthily isn’t a sin.”  

He proposes this dual style of healing: “There are medicines that can help (mental health care), you know, and depending on the type [of medicine]. Some can be resolved by going back to God in prayer and reading the word of God, but there are some that you need mental health care. So the church should promote going to mental health facilities when you have such challenges.”

He is not alone in believing that faith and therapy can coexist. Other Nigerian religious leaders, such as the well-known Apostle Femi Lazarus, have spoken extensively on the subject. In a sermon titled “Issues of Mental Health Need to be Addressed in The Body of Christ”, Lazarus affirms his belief that Christians and Nigerians need to pay better attention to mental health problems, saying, “Many people have mental health issues, and we need to first take them for therapy.” 

In Nigeria’s South South region, a group of Catholic nuns is providing free mental health services to women at risk of homelessness in Uyo and surrounding areas.

Additionally, mental health advocates like Mariam Adetona have found ways to properly combine faith with mental health care. On a muslim-advocacy blog, “Reviving Sisterhood”, Mariam spoke about reaching people who need mental health help, saying, “I have noticed many do not think therapy is necessary or are sceptical about its efficiency or effectiveness. In cases like this, I use my own experience with therapy to persuade them, as well as others’ experiences.”

Still, until therapy becomes truly affordable and stigma fades, many Nigerians will continue to find themselves caught between their faith and their pain, turning first to prayer, even when what they need most is professional care.


Names marked with * have been changed to protect identities.

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‘I left gloomy UK for dream life in Asia and it costs me half as much’

Casey Pickup, 26, quit her job as a sales manager after feeling ‘unfulfilled’ by life in Britain and booked a one-way flight

Casey Pickup
Casey Pickup had ‘always dreamt’ of travelling the world(Image: Casey Pickup/SWNS)

A woman fed up with the UK’s “gloomy weather” ditched it to travel the world full time and now lives her “dream” lifestyle in Asia – for ‘half the price’ of a “monotonous British life”. Casey Pickup, 26, gave up her position as a sales manager after feeling “unfulfilled” by life in Britain and took off with a one-way ticket to Thailand.

She has no intentions of coming back and cites being “fed up” with the rain, chilly climate and lifestyle at home as her catalyst for departure. In March 2023, she uploaded a video on TikTok detailing her itinerary to Thailand and Bali and called out for other solo adventurers to join her.

She formed a group chat with seven other young individuals eager to see the globe, and they collectively spent a thrilling six weeks touring Thailand. During these adventures, Casey met her now-partner, Taylor Barker, 26, a marketing professional, and together they’ve since globetrotted across 15 distinct nations.

Globetrotting Casey now earns in excess of £5,000 per month and attests that overseas living is “better” crediting the substantially lower cost of living in Asia compared to the UK.

She boasts a “dream lifestyle” that encompasses living in opulent apartments and villas, dining out each day and indulging in massages and beauty treatments thrice or more weekly – all for a mere £2,000 per month, a figure she said would be double or worse back in the UK.

Casey has sworn off returning to the UK and now bankrolls her globetrotting lifestyle by producing content for brands, who pay her to visit breathtaking spots across the globe.

Casey Pickup on her travels
Casey Pickup on her travels(Image: Casey Pickup/SWNS)

Content creator Casey, from Chorley, Lancashire, said: “I’ve always loved to travel and whenever I’d come home to rainy England after a holiday, I always felt a bit depressed.

“The main reasons I left the UK is because every day feels the same, it’s dark and it’s gloomy. I used to hate going to work in the dark, and coming home in the dark.

“The lifestyle in the UK just wasn’t very fulfilling. Life in England felt a lot more routine and rushed – like I was always in a cycle of work, grey weather and waiting for the weekend.

“My lifestyle in Asia is so much more fulfilling. I’ve built a life that allows me to wake up by the beach, work on creative projects I care about and explore beautiful places. I feel a sense of freedom that I never felt in the UK.

“Travelling Asia is a no-brainer considering the difference in cost of living – and it’s beautiful. I finally made move to Asia in March 2023 and I’ve never looked back.

“There is no downside, it’s all just been amazing. I love the lifestyle and the sun, I’d never move back.”

Casey Pickup
Casey Pickup(Image: Casey Pickup/SWNS)

Casey was stuck in a rut with her mum, Helen, an artist, back in Lancashire, juggling various “random, boring jobs” such as waitressing, bar work and sales, when she decided to pack up and head to Asia. Having had a taste of adventure working as a holiday rep for Thomas Cook, she yearned to “see the world”, but the puzzle was how to bankroll her wanderlust.

She began crafting promotional videos for big names like Santander and My Protein, quickly realising her income potential had soared to upwards of £5,000 monthly. In March 2023, Casey took off to Thailand with a bunch of mates she’d connected with online, ready to live her Asian travel fantasy.

While settling into Thai life, Casey bagged a two-storey, fully furnished apartment for just £560 a month, sharing the cost with her other half, Taylor. Their setup boasted an infinity pool and gym access.

“It’s so much more affordable to live in Asia,” Casey said. “You could stay in a really beautiful villa or hotel for £10 to £30 a night.

“Local food is roughly £1 or £2 per meal and Western food like pasta or pizza is £4 or £5. The sort of lifestyle that would cost £4,000 or £5,000 a month in Europe is only £2,000 in Asia. And if you’re on more of a budget, you could definitely get by on £1,200 a month.”

Casey has racked up visits to approximately 15 countries in the past two years, taking her adventures through Vietnam, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, Morocco and Central America. She’s driven by the hope that her journey will motivate others to “follow their dreams” of travel and remote work.

As a result, she now regularly shares her tips and recommendations on social media for fellow aspiring digital nomads.

Casey said: “If you’re not happy in your job, go after your dreams. Moving back to the UK is never going to happen.

“If I have children in the future, I’d move to Australia to raise a family. I never thought it would be possible to travel the world full time, but here I am now.

“I am so grateful every day for staying consistent and going after what I really wanted in life. I’m the happiest I’ve ever been.”

Casey Pickup
Casey Pickup was left feeling ‘unfulfilled’ by life in the UK(Image: Casey Pickup/SWNS)

Casey’s top destinations

For sun-kissed beaches, head to the Philippines

Surf enthusiasts should catch the waves in Indonesia

Find the most courteous people in Thailand

Casey’s typical costs

Rent – £500 – £1,000 a month, split between two people

Bills – £0 – included in rent

Daily food budget stands at £10

Experiences – gratis for Casey courtesy of GetYourGuide collaborations, but typically cost between £10 – £60

Travel insurance is her only substantial outlay at £60

You can keep up with Casey’s global trotting on Instagram @howtotravelfulltime.

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Nike to raise costs as Trump’s tariffs on China bite | International Trade News

Nike has said it will cut its reliance on production in China for the United States market to mitigate the impact from US tariffs on imports, and forecast a smaller-than-expected drop in first-quarter revenue.

The sportswear giant’s shares zoomed 15 percent at the opening bell on Friday morning after it announced the change in conjunction with its earnings report released on Thursday.

US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on imports from key trading partners could add about $1bn to Nike’s costs, company executives said on a post-earnings call after the sportswear giant topped estimates for fourth-quarter results.

China, subject to the biggest tariff increases imposed by Trump, accounts for about 16 percent of the shoes Nike imports into the US, Chief Financial Officer Matthew Friend said. However, the company aims to cut the figure to a “high single-digit percentage range” by the end of May 2026 as it reallocates Chinese production to other countries.

“We will optimise our sourcing mix and allocate production differently across countries to mitigate the new cost headwind into the United States,” he said on a call with investors.

Consumer goods are one of the most affected areas by the tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies, but Nike’s executives said they were focused on cutting the financial pain. Nike will “evaluate” corporate cost reductions to deal with the tariff impact, Friend said. The company has already announced price increases for some products in the US.

“The tariff impact is significant. However, I expect others in the sportswear industry will also raise prices, so Nike may not lose much share in the US,” David Swartz, analyst at Morningstar Research, told the Reuters news agency.

CEO Elliott Hill’s strategy to focus product innovation and marketing around sports is beginning to show some fruit, with the running category returning to growth in the fourth quarter after several quarters of weakness.

Having lost share in the fast-growing running market, Nike has invested heavily in running shoes such as Pegasus and Vomero, while scaling back production of sneakers such as the Air Force 1.

“Running has performed especially strongly for Nike,” said Citi analyst Monique Pollard, adding that new running shoes and sportswear products are expected to offset the declines in Nike’s classic sneaker franchises at wholesale partner stores.

Marketing spending was up 15 percent year on year in the quarter.

On Thursday, Nike hosted an event in which its sponsored athlete Faith Kipyegon attempted to run a mile in under four minutes. Paced by other star athletes in the glitzy event that was livestreamed from a Paris stadium, Kipyegon fell short of the goal but set a new unofficial record.

Nike forecast first-quarter revenue to fall in the mid-single digits, slightly better than analysts’ expectations of a 7.3 percent drop, according to data compiled by LSEG. Its fourth-quarter sales fell 12 percent  to $11.10bn, but still beat estimates of a 14.9 percent drop to $10.72bn.

China continued to be a pain point, with executives saying a turnaround in the country will take time as Nike contends with tougher economic conditions and competition.

Looming trade deal as prices rise

Nike’s woes come as a trade deal with China could be on the horizon. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett said on Friday that the administration could have a deal with Beijing by Labor Day, which is on September 1.

Under the deal, the US will likely impose 55 percent tariffs across the board on Chinese goods, down from 145 percent, still a significant burden on businesses.

According to a survey from Allianz Global Trade last month, 38 percent of businesses say they will need to raise prices for consumers, with Nike being the latest.

In April, competitor Adidas said it would need to eventually raise prices for US consumers.

“Cost increases due to higher tariffs will eventually cause price increases,” CEO Bjorn Gulden said at the time.

Walmart said last month that its customers will see higher price tags in its stores as the nation’s biggest big box retailer prepares for back to school shopping season.

Target, which had a bad first quarter driven by boycotts and the looming threat of tariffs, also has been hit as the big box retailer gets 30 percent of its goods from China.

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Medicare and Social Security go-broke dates pushed up due to rising health care costs, new SSA law

The go-broke dates for Medicare and Social Security trust funds have moved up as rising health care costs and new legislation affecting Social Security benefits have contributed to earlier projected depletion dates, according to an annual report released Wednesday.

The go-broke date — or the date at which the programs will no longer have enough funds to pay full benefits — was pushed up to 2033 for Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund, according to the new report from the programs’ trustees. Last year’s report put the go-broke date at 2036.

Meanwhile, Social Security’s trust funds — which cover old age and disability recipients — will be unable to pay full benefits beginning in 2034, instead of last year’s estimate of 2035. After that point, Social Security would only be able to pay 81% of benefits.

The trustees say the latest findings show the urgency of needed changes to the programs, which have faced dire financial projections for decades. But making changes to the programs has long been politically unpopular, and lawmakers have repeatedly kicked Social Security and Medicare’s troubling math to the next generation.

President Trump and other Republicans have vowed not to make any cuts to Medicare or Social Security, even as they seek to shrink the federal government’s expenditures.

Social Security Administration Commissioner Frank Bisignano, sworn into his role in May, said in a statement that “the financial status of the trust funds remains a top priority for the Trump Administration.”

“Current-law projections indicate that Medicare still faces a substantial financial shortfall that needs to be addressed with further legislation. Such legislation should be enacted sooner rather than later to minimize the impact on beneficiaries, providers, and taxpayers,” the trustees state in the report.

The trustees are made up of six people — the Treasury Secretary serves as managing trustee, alongside the secretaries of Labor, Health and Human Services, and the commissioner of Social Security. Two other presidentially-appointed and Senate-confirmed trustees serve as public representatives, however those roles have been vacant since July 2015.

About 68 million people are enrolled in Medicare, the federal government’s health insurance that covers those 65 and older, as well as people with severe disabilities or illnesses.

Wednesday’s report shows a worsening situation for the Medicare hospital insurance trust fund compared to last year. But the forecasted go-broke date of 2033 is still later than the dates of 2031, 2028 and 2026 predicted just a few years ago.

Once the fund’s reserves become depleted, Medicare would be able to cover only 89% of costs for patients’ hospital visits, hospice care and nursing home stays or home health care that follow hospital visits.

The report said expenses last year for Medicare’s hospital insurance trust fund came in higher than expected.

Income exceeded expenditures by nearly $29 billion last year for the hospital insurance trust fund, the report stated. Trustees expect that surplus to continue through 2027. Deficits then will follow until the fund becomes depleted in 2033.

The report states that the Social Security Social Security Fairness Act, enacted in January, which repealed the Windfall Elimination and Government Pension Offset provisions of the Social Security Act and increased Social Security benefit levels for some workers, had an impact on the depletion date of SSA’s trust funds.

Romina Boccia, a director of Budget and Entitlement Policy at the libertarian CATO Institute called the repeal of the provisions “a political giveaway masquerading as reform. Instead of tackling Social Security’s structural imbalances, Congress chose to increase benefits for a vocal minority—accelerating trust fund insolvency.”

“It’s a clear sign that populist pressure now outweighs fiscal responsibility and economic sanity on both sides of the aisle,” She said.

Pair that with a Republican reconciliation bill that increases tax giveaways while refusing to rein in even the most dubious Medicaid expansions, and the message is unmistakable: Washington is still in giveaway mode.

AARP CEO Myechia Minter-Jordan said “Congress must act to protect and strengthen the Social Security that Americans have earned and paid into throughout their working lives.” “More than 69 million Americans rely on Social Security today and as America’s population ages, the stability of this vital program only becomes more important.”

Social Security benefits were last reformed roughly 40 years ago, when the federal government raised the eligibility age for the program from 65 to 67. The eligibility age has never changed for Medicare, with people eligible for the medical coverage when they turn 65.

Nancy Altman, president of Social Security Works, an advocacy group for the popular public benefit program said in a statement that “there are two options for action: Bringing more money into Social Security, or reducing benefits. Any politician who doesn’t support increasing Social Security’s revenue is, by default, supporting benefit cuts.”

Congressional Budget Office reporting has stated that the biggest drivers of debt rising in relation to GDP are increasing interest costs and spending for Medicare and Social Security. An aging population drives those numbers.

Several legislative proposals have been put forward to address Social Security’s impending insolvency.

Hussein writes for the Associated Press. AP reporters Amanda Seitz and Tom Murphy in Indianapolis contributed to this report.

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L.A. protest costs reach nearly $20 million for police, city repairs

The city of Los Angeles has racked up nearly $20 million in police costs and other expenses in response to protests that have erupted over federal immigration raids, the city’s top budget analyst said Monday.

City Administrative Officer Matt Szabo said in a memo to the City Council that the city has incurred at least $19.7 million in costs through June 16. The Los Angeles Police Department has spent $16.9 million, including $11.7 million for overtime.

Other costs include $780,601 to repair damage at City Hall, the LAPD’s headquarters on 1st Street, and other city buildings.

Some estimates, excluding the police, run only through June 13 and the tally is expected to increase.

Protesters have held near-daily demonstrations in downtown L.A. since immigration agents raided a fast-fashion warehouse on June 6. Some protests have become violent and police have deployed tear gas canisters and shot less-lethal munitions. The LAPD said Monday that 575 people have been arrested since the demonstrations started.

President Trump has vowed to carry out the biggest mass deportation operation in U.S. history and called on federal agents to detain and deport undocumented people in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York.

The additional costs from the protests will strain L.A.’s already-shaky finances. The city is spending more on legal payouts and labor costs, but bringing in less tax revenues due to a variety of reasons, including a drop in tourism.

During protests in 2020 over the murder of George Floyd by a Minnesota police officer, the LAPD spent $40 million on overtime. Also, police actions related to those protests cost the city at least $11.9 million in settlements and jury awards, according to The Times’ analysis in May.

On Monday, a group representing reporters sued the LAPD in federal court over the department’s treatment of media, arguing constitutional and state rights are being violated.

The suit cites multiple instances of officers firing foam projectiles at members of the media and otherwise flouting state laws that restrict the use of so-called less-lethal weapons in crowd control situations and protect journalists covering the unrest.

Times staff writer Libor Jany contributed reporting.

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Chile’s defense policy shift carries high costs

The Chilean armed forces rely on U.S.-made F-16 fighters. File photo by Marco Mesina/EPA-EFE

SANTIAGO, Chile, June 13 (UPI) — President Gabriel Boric’s plan to replace Israel as Chile’s primary arms supplier presents logistical and strategic challenges for the country’s armed forces.

Chile’s president has sharply criticized Israel’s military actions in Gaza. In his recent state of the nation address, he supported Spain’s proposal for an arms embargo on Israel “to prevent more children from being killed.”

“I have instructed the defense minister to quickly present a plan to diversify our defense trade relationships so we can stop relying on Israeli industry in all areas,” Boric said.

Since 1977, Chile has purchased more than $850 million worth of Israeli weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

By 1989, Israel supplied 42.5% of Chile’s total weapon imports. During Sebastián Piñera’s administration, Chile signed new agreements with Israel covering weapons, security technology and cybersecurity.

The path toward supplier diversification is complex. Chile’s armed forces maintain a significant inventory of Israeli-made equipment. Changing suppliers requires a transition process that could affect existing system interoperability.

Integrating new platforms and technologies from multiple sources takes time, training and often costly modifications to ensure systems from different countries can operate together efficiently. This is especially critical in joint operations, where compatibility between communications gear, navigation systems and weapons is essential.

Experts say replacing deeply integrated Israeli systems could weaken Chile’s overall operational capability.

“The relationship with an arms supplier goes far beyond the initial purchase. It involves agreements for logistical support, spare parts, long-term maintenance and technological upgrades,” said César Cereceda, a defense expert and president of the Association of Retired Armed Forces Personnel.

Severing or weakening ties with an established supplier like Israel could disrupt the supply chain for critical parts, affecting the operation and availability of existing equipment. Trust and a strong support track record are crucial in military technology procurement, Cereceda added.

Military equipment also requires highly trained personnel for operation and maintenance. Changing suppliers means training troops on new systems, requiring investments in time and resources.

Chile may consider Brazil, Turkey and India as new suppliers, but it must first evaluate whether their products meet the country’s specific defense needs.

Brazil has a developing defense industry focused on land systems, aircraft and some naval platforms. While it has made progress, its technology may not match Israel’s level of sophistication, particularly in high-tech sectors.

Turkey’s defense industry has expanded rapidly in recent years, making notable advances in drones, armored vehicles and naval systems. Its development has been impressive, but it has yet to fully consolidate as a comprehensive supplier.

India’s large industrial base and its ambitious “Made in India” policy are key strengths in its bid to become a defense supplier. However, it still relies heavily on foreign technology for complex systems, and its ability to export advanced weapons at scale remains limited.

“Chile’s defense policy has long focused on diversifying strategic acquisitions,” said Gabriel Gaspar, an international analyst and former deputy defense secretary. He noted that the armed forces operate German armored vehicles, ships from the U.K., Australia and the Netherlands and U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets.

“All of these supply lines rely on NATO-standard technology, offering broad compatibility — from calibers to communication systems,” Gaspar said. “Switching to a different line of weaponry is always possible, but it requires long-term policy and funding.”

The cost of replacing existing technology could range from $15 billion to $20 billion, according to estimates by Fernando Wilson, an analyst at Chile’s Adolfo Ibáñez University.

Reducing dependence on a single supplier would strengthen Chile’s strategic autonomy and reduce its vulnerability to potential embargoes or shifts in bilateral relations.

Exploring new markets would allow Chile to access different technologies and approaches in the defense industry, potentially strengthening its long-term military capabilities.

However, experts say a complete switch in suppliers and the replacement of all Israeli technology and systems currently in use could come at a very high cost.

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I’m a property expert, these 10 easy hacks add value to your home including one trick that costs just £3

JUNE is a popular time for people to move home, hopeful of being settled before the new school term.

But making sure you get the most out of a move can be stressful.

FABULOUS : interior expert Liv Conlon. As the CEO of ThePropertyStagers - I'm an interiors expert - 8 mistakes that are making your home look cheap & why you should never fake it till you make it

5

Liv Conlon gives her 10 tricks for making more out of your home
: I’m a millionaire, here’s how to make your home look expensive on a budget - and you’ll get a much higher asking price.Teaser: LIV Conlon, 25, originally from Glasgow but who now lives in Marbella, can also give style advice to sellers who are looking to achieve above the asking price..Subdeck: Liv Conlon is an expert when it comes to making homes look posh

5

Layering up in the bedroom is key

However, property expert Liv Conlon – who stages homes for a living – has shared her essential 10 tips for boosting value.

And some cost just pennies but can had hundreds to the asking price.

Liv, 26, is the CEO of multi-award-winning ThePropertyStagers.co.uk, which furnishes more than 400 homes a year, as well as a StagerBoss – a coaching business teaching other women how to do the same.

The Scots mum, who was brought up in Glasgow and now lives in Marbella with son Cash and mum Ali, says: “From posh pillows to hotel-style bedding, the right styling can make buyers fall in love and nudge them above the asking price.

“So before you stick up the For Sale sign, check out these smart, simple ways to get buyers battling to pay more than the asking price.”

FIRST IMPRESSIONS

A buyer decides in 10 seconds whether they are going to buy your home or not – so your entrance and hallway need to make a good first impression.

Make it warm and welcoming. Buy a new door mat that’s only used for viewings, with no dirty shoe marks, and place two identical plants at either side of the door – which is either clean, new or given a lick of paint. Opt for colours such as black or navy blue so it looks ‘classy’, rather than something more ‘out there’.

Clear away the clutter, and lose the smelly shoes and dumped coats.

LIVING ROOM VISION

The living room is the heart of the home – and buyers know it. It’s where they picture relaxing with a glass of wine, watching TV, or hosting friends.

Teachers told me I was runing my life leaving school at 16, now I run a seven-figure business

Get this room wrong and you risk turning off even the most interested buyer. Make it feel spacious but not sterile, styled but still homely.

Pull sofas away from the walls to create cosy conversation zones, and use a large rug to anchor the space – this helps define it and adds warmth.

Then ditch harsh overhead lights and go for soft lamps, layered lighting and oversized accessories to give a sense of luxury. Use neutral tones for your sofa and walls, then add depth with textured throws, scatter cushions and artwork.

GO BIG

Tiny trinkets and dinky lamps really don’t cut it when you’re trying to wow a buyer. One of the biggest styling mistakes sellers make is going too small with their accessories – it makes your home look underwhelming.

: I’m a millionaire, here’s how to make your home look expensive on a budget - and you’ll get a much higher asking price.Teaser: LIV Conlon, 25, originally from Glasgow but who now lives in Marbella, can also give style advice to sellers who are looking to achieve above the asking price..Subdeck: Liv Conlon is an expert when it comes to making homes look posh

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Go big with accessories

If you want to create that lux, showhome feel, size matters. Think
big and bold. Oversized lamps on side tables make a dramatic statement, especially when paired with plush sofas or layered cushions.

Chunky candlesticks, large framed art or statement vases add instant impact – and make the space feel styled, not stuffed.

DON’T LOO-SE OUT

Bathrooms are an important room but are often forgotten about when it comes to staging. The key to success with styling this room is to compliment not clutter.

You can do this by adding simple styling accessories, layers and textures. Consider pops of colour in your accessories, such as a soap dispenser or a toothbrush holder, which you can pick up for as little as £3 in places like Home Bargains. This draws the eye and helps your images jump off the page.

: I’m a millionaire, here’s how to make your home look expensive on a budget - and you’ll get a much higher asking price.Teaser: LIV Conlon, 25, originally from Glasgow but who now lives in Marbella, can also give style advice to sellers who are looking to achieve above the asking price..Subdeck: Liv Conlon is an expert when it comes to making homes look posh

5

Don’t forget to add a pop of colour in the bathroom

Add textures with towels and bath mats, but also through the type of glass or ceramic in your accessories. Small touches can have a big impact.

RIGHT RUG

Rugs are the unsung heroes of home staging – they define spaces, add texture and instantly warm up any room. In large, open-plan layouts, rugs create natural boundaries between living,
dining and kitchen zones, making the space feel organised and inviting.

Don’t overlook the ‘forgotten’ spaces – utility rooms, hallways or entryways can be transformed with a well-chosen rug to feel cosy and purposeful.

Rugs can tie together the design elements, especially through colour and texture, in a space while providing a cosy and inviting atmosphere.

They can also significantly reduce noise levels by absorbing sound – a quieter home is always more appealing to buyers.

ALL WHITE

Five-star hotels use crisp, white bedding for a reason, as it exudes luxury and cleanliness, and it immediately puts a viewer at ease.

Patterned or busy linens can feel cluttered and overly personal, turning off potential buyers. Investing in high-quality, bright white sheets creates a serene, spa-like oasis that invites buyers to imagine themselves unwinding there.

The clean, neutral backdrop also lets you introduce pops of colour and texture with cushions and throws – easy updates that make the room feel stylish without overwhelming the senses.

GET DRESSED

Layering is the secret to making your home feel styled, warm and high-end – without overdoing it.

In the bedroom, start with white sheets, then double up on duvets: one laid flat, the second folded neatly at the end for a boutique hotel look. Use feather insert cushions -not flat polyfills – and build texture with velvet throws, faux fur or quilted finishes.

In the living room, mix cushion sizes and textures on your sofa – linen, boucle, chunky knit – to add depth. Coffee tables and
sideboards should be styled too: think a stack of hardback books, a sculptural candle and one standout vase. Keep it intentional, not cluttered.

STAR OF THE SHOW

Not much beats getting ready at a dressing table. The feeling of space and time – rather than catching a quick glimpse in the closet mirror before rushing out the front door.

Create that same feeling in your bedroom by setting up a designated space in your bedroom to put on make-up and style your hair.

This can be a dual purpose area that could also double up as a work from home space too. To add real luxury, add a table standing mirror, and opt for a mirrored dressing table if your budget allows.

CLEAR OFF

Nothing puts buyers off faster than clutter. It makes rooms feel smaller and chaotic. When people view your home, they’re not just looking at the space – they’re imagining their life in it.

That’s hard to do if every surface is piled high with post, toys or toiletries. Start by stripping back.

Clear kitchen worktops, bedside tables and bathroom counters. Invest in clever storage: ottomans with lift-up lids, under-bed boxes and baskets for toys or blankets.

Hide away anything personal or bulky. Less stuff equals more space.

MIRROR IMAGE

Create symmetry in your rooms with matching bedside tables on either side of the bed. Not only does this add practicality and storage, but it instantly makes the room feel more polished.

Then, top each table with oversized, identical lamps – these create drama and a high-end vibe without breaking the bank.

Symmetry tricks the eye into seeing order and elegance, making your
bedroom feel like a five-star retreat buyers won’t forget.

FABULOUS : interior expert Liv Conlon. As the CEO of ThePropertyStagers - I'm an interiors expert - 8 mistakes that are making your home look cheap & why you should never fake it till you make it

5

Liv said make sure to declutter

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Brits are avoiding one UK city at all costs over irritating ‘classic move’

A viral Reddit thread is sparking a debate about ‘spatial awareness’ in London has left users threatening to leave the capital, with one user branding the tourist population as “goldfish on land”

Commuters crowd onto a bus
Londoners are furious about one thing(Image: PA)

They say London is the city that never stops, and they wouldn’t be wrong. Except for those who do stop. Everywhere.

With the city’s population standing at a robust 9.84 million people as of 2025, you’d be hard-pressed to find too much stagnation. But there are some who like to pause in odd places and position themselves at awkward junctures which leads to inconvenience for many.

At least that’s what a viral thread on Reddit claims. Asking the all-important question: “Why is people’s spatial awareness in London so bad?” in a subreddit called ‘London’, a Reddit user’s now viral thread is bringing all sorts of perspectives to the table.

READ MORE: Flyers’ biggest irritations include reclining seats, crying kids and drunk people

A crowd of shoppers stream through the entrance as doors open to a store
A viral thread on Reddit has sparked off a heated debate about people’s lack of ‘spatial awareness’ in London(Image: PA)

Further elaborating on the question, the Redditor continues: “And no I don’t just mean tourists stopping for photos/in front of you but generally, Londoners do it too. Crowding the door on a bus so everyone has to do the awkward shimmy to get off, crowding around the entrances in pubs making it awkward for people coming in.

“And don’t get me started on prams, because they have to be absolutely everywhere of course. Generally prams can be okay but they’re a pain on narrow pavements, in Soho etc. I think a lot of this boils down to apathy and a lack of care for others in public, ‘I’m here and if that inconveniences you, tough’. People walking in a group of 3 or 4 taking up a whole pavement for themselves…”

The user adds: “Social decorum has been on a bit of a decline in recent years but can we all be a bit more considerate of others, especially the elderly and less abled, we all live in the same city, let’s make it more bearable. That is all.”

One Redditor, agreeing with the original poster, wrote: “I agree on the terrible spatial awareness. My personal pet peeve is people blocking stairs, escalators and doors to stop and chat or just generally look around. Like, if you need to stop in a busy place for any reason, be it tying your shoelace, getting a drink of water, looking at your phone, etc – step the duck aside to not block those behind you.

“I’m also always amazed by people stopping and staring at tube maps at platform entrances. Surely EVERYONE now has a map on their phone they can look at instead,” they added.

While another sarcastically commented: “Classic Londoner move I’ve learned since moving here is to abruptly stop walking in the middle of the sidewalk to check your phone.”

Another Redditor took a cheeky jab at… well, the whole world, saying: “One thing I’ve noticed as I get older is there is a significant percentage of the population (in the world, not just London) who just don’t have a clue. Room temperature IQ. Basically goldfish on land. Unless there are signs directly in front of them telling them what to do they are barely able to function. No inner thoughts, purely reacting in the moment. They’re not ‘only thinking of themselves’ as many assume; they’re actually thinking of nothing at all.”

Commuters crowd onto a bus
People are fed up with others being ‘inconsiderate’(Image: PA)

In fact, one Redditor went so far as to consider moving out of London as they wrote: “Been asking this for years! Why is it soooo bad?! No queuing, no civility…behaving in ways that make NO sense. Not letting people off before they pile on, not moving down to let people on. People leaning on others and using up so much space… maybe I just need to move out of London.”

However some were critical of the original post, with one user commenting: “Complaining about prams being on pavements is a bit ridiculous.”

One user summed up the general sentiment of the thread and wrote: “I reckon that a lot of people think they’re more spatially aware than they actually are. If that makes sense.”

Do you think people in London have a spatial awareness issue? Let us know in the comments.

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Will ending the death penalty save California more money than speeding up executions?

Past efforts to repeal the death penalty in California have centered on moral or ethical objections. This year, proponents of Proposition 62, which would replace the punishment with life in prison without parole, are focusing on economics.

Prominent supporters of the measure have repeatedly pointed out that the state’s taxpayers have spent $5 billion on the executions of only 13 people in almost 40 years. Online ads have urged voters to end a costly system that “wastes” $150 million a year.

“Sometimes, something is so broken it just can’t be fixed,” a voiceover says in one commercial, as a blue-and-white china vase shatters to the ground.

“Let’s spend that money on programs that are proven to make us safer,” a crime victim pleads in another.

But as voters weigh two dueling death penalty measures on the Nov. 8 ballot — one to eliminate executions, another to speed them up — researchers are at odds over the actual costs and potential savings of each. Independent legislative analysts, meanwhile, believe Proposition 62 could save taxpayers millions, while concluding that the fiscal impact of Proposition 66’s attempt to expedite death sentences is unknown.

Death penalty cases are often the most expensive in the criminal justice system because the costs associated with capital punishment trials and the incarceration of death row offenders are vastly higher.

The expenses begin to accrue at the county level. Capital cases require two trials, one to decide the verdict and another the punishment. They require more attorneys, more investigators, more time and experts and a larger jury pool.

The costs grow as the state must pay to incarcerate inmates during a lengthy appeals process: The average cost of imprisoning an offender was about $47,000 per year in 2008-09, according to the nonpartisan state legislative analyst’s office. But housing a death row inmate can lead to an additional $50,000 to $90,000 per year, studies have found.

Paula Mitchell, a professor at Loyola Law School who is against the death penalty and has advised the Yes on Prop. 62 campaign, puts the cost of the entire death penalty system since 1978 at about $5 billion.

That figure, updated from data compiled in a 2011 report, includes 13 executions since the death penalty was reinstated through a 1978 ballot measure; it was suspended in 2006 because of legal challenges over injection protocols. The figure also includes the cost of trials, lengthy appeals and the housing of nearly 750 inmates on California’s death row.

The initial study estimated taxpayers spent $70 million per year on incarceration costs, $775 million on federal legal challenges to convictions, known as habeas corpus petitions, and $925 million on automatic appeals and initial legal challenges to death row cases.

Mitchell and other researchers said Proposition 62, which would retroactively apply life sentences to all death row defendants, would save the state most of that money.

“It is sort of a fantasy that this system is ever going to be cost efficient,” said Mitchell, who has been named the university’s executive director of the Project for the Innocent.

But proponents of Proposition 66 argue the system can be reformed. The ballot measure would designate trial courts to take on initial challenges to convictions and limit successive appeals to within five years of a death sentence. It also would require lawyers who don’t take capital cases to represent death row inmates in an attempt to expand the pool of available lawyers.

In an analysis for its proponents, Michael Genest, a former budget director for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, contends such changes would save taxpayers $30 million annually in the long run. Proposition 62, in comparison, would cost taxpayers more than $100 million due to this “lost opportunity” over a 10-year period.

But independent researchers with the legislative analyst’s office found plenty of factors could increase or reduce the chances of either ballot measure saving taxpayers money.

Overall, they found Proposition 62 was likely to reduce net state and county costs by roughly $150 million within a few years.

The actual number could be partially offset if, without the death penalty, offenders are less inclined to plead guilty in exchange for a lesser sentence in some murder cases. That could lead to more cases going to trial and higher court costs, according to the legislative analyst’s office.

Yet over time, the state could see lower prison expenses, even with a larger and older prison population, since the costs of housing and supervising death row inmates is much higher than paying for their medical bills, analysts said.

“If Prop. 62 goes into effect, they can be housed like life-without-parole inmates, some in single and some double cells,” legislative analyst Anita Lee said. “It would fall to [the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation] to do an evaluation of risks.”

Calculating the fiscal impact of Proposition 66 is much more complicated, the office found, as the measure leaves more open questions on implementation, such as how the state would staff up with additional private attorneys.

Silicon Valley is pouring millions into repealing California’s death penalty. Will it make a difference? »

Legislative analysts said the costs in the short term were likely to be higher, as the state would have to process hundreds of pending legal challenges within the new time limits. Just how much is unknown, but the actual number could be in the tens of millions of dollars annually for many years.

Also unknown, analysts said, is the proposition’s effect on the cost of each legal challenge. The limits on appeals and new deadlines could cut the expenses if they result in fewer, shorter legal filings that take less time and state resources to process.

But they could increase costs if additional layers of review are required for habeas corpus petitions, the initial legal challenges in criminal cases, and if more lawyers are needed.

Meanwhile, potential prison savings could reach tens of millions of dollars annually, depending on how the state changes the way it houses condemned inmates. Transferring male inmates to other prisons rather than housing them in single cells at San Quentin could lead to lower costs. But how much depends on how many the state can move.

Mitchell said it was “pretty much delusional” to expect Proposition 66 to ever save the state money. For that to happen, she said, California would have to execute “one person every week, 52 people a year for the next 15 years, assuming they are all guilty.”

But Kent Scheidegger, author of the proposition and legal director of the Criminal Justice Legal Foundation, argued the legislative office’s numbers were skewed, while security costs for dangerous inmates would likely have to remain just as high.

“They don’t become any less dangerous if you change their sentence from death row to life without parole,” he said.

[email protected]

@jazmineulloa

ALSO:

What happens if both death penalty measures are approved by voters on Nov. 8?

How ‘MASH’ actor Mike Farrell became a leading voice against the death penalty in California

In ‘No on 62, Yes on 66’ campaign ad, murder victim’s mother urges California voters to keep the death penalty

Updates on California politics



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Trump’s $4.9-trillion tax plan targets Medicaid to offset costs

House Republicans proposed sweeping tax breaks Monday in President Trump’s big priority bill, tallying at least $4.9 trillion in costs so far, partly paid for with cuts to Medicaid, food stamps and green energy programs used by millions of Americans.

The House Ways and Means Committee named its package “THE ONE, BIG, BEAUTIFUL BILL” in all capital letters, a nod to Trump himself. It seeks to extend the tax breaks approved during Trump’s first term — and boost the standard deduction, child tax credit and estate tax exemption — while adding new tax breaks on tipped wages, overtime pay, Social Security benefits and auto loans that Trump promised during his campaign for the White House.

There’s also a tripling of the state and local tax deduction, called SALT, from $10,000 up to $30,000 for couples, which certain high-tax state GOP lawmakers from New York and California already rejected as too meager. Private universities would be hit with a hefty new tax on their endowments, as much as 21%, as the Trump administration goes after the Ivy League and other campuses. And one unusual provision would terminate the tax-exempt status of groups the State Department says support “terrorists,” which civil society advocates warn is a way to potentially punish those at odds with the Trump administration.

Overall, the package is touching off the biggest political debate over taxes, spending and the nation’s priorities in nearly a decade. Not since 2017 has Congress wrestled with legislation as this, when Republicans approved the Trump tax cuts but also failed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare. The cost assessments are only preliminary, and expected to soar.

“Republicans need to UNIFY,” Trump posted on social media before departing for a trip to the Middle East.

Trump said when he returns to Washington, “we will work together on any and all outstanding issues, but there shouldn’t be many — The Bill is GREAT. We have no alternative, WE MUST WIN!”

But one key Republican, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, implored his party not to impair Medicaid, arguing that cutting healthcare to pay for tax breaks is both “morally wrong and politically suicidal.”

“If Republicans want to be a working-class party — if we want to be a majority party — we must ignore calls to cut Medicaid and start delivering on America’s promise for America’s working people,” Hawley wrote in the New York Times.

Late Monday, the House Agriculture Committee released its proposals — cutting $290 billion from federal nutrition programs, in part by shifting costs to the states and requiring able-bodied adults without dependents to fulfill work requirements until they are 64 years old, rather than 54, to qualify for food aid.

Round-the-clock work ahead

As Republicans race toward House Speaker Mike Johnson’s Memorial Day deadline to pass Trump’s big bill, they are preparing to flood the zone with round-the-clock public hearings starting Tuesday and stitch the various sections together in what will become a massive package.

The politics ahead are uncertain. The bipartisan Joint Committee on Taxation said Monday that tax breaks would reduce revenue by $4.9 trillion over the decade — and that was before Trump’s new tax breaks were included.

Texas Rep. Chip Roy, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, warned the price tag could climb to $20 trillion, piling onto the deficits and debt.

“I sure hope House & Senate leadership are coming up with a backup plan,” Roy posted on social media, “…. because I’m not here to rack up an additional $20 trillion in debt over 10 years.”

House Republicans have been huddling behind closed doors, working out final provisions in the 389-page tax portion of the package.

The legislation proposes to boost the standard deduction many Americans use by $2,000, to $32,000 per household, and increase the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,500 for four years. It adds a new requirement focused on preventing undocumented immigrants from benefiting from the credit even if the children are U.S. citizens, which the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a liberal think tank, estimates would affect 4.5 million children who are U.S. citizens or lawful residents.

It would also increase the estate tax exemption, which is now $14 million, to $15 million and index future increases to inflation.

As for the president’s promises, the legislation includes Trump’s “no taxes on tips” pledge, providing a deduction for those workers in service industry and other jobs that have traditionally relied on tips. It directs the Treasury secretary to issue guidance to avoid businesses gaming the system.

The package also provides tax relief for automobile shoppers with a temporary deduction of up to $10,000 on car loan interest, applying the benefit only for those vehicles where the final assembly occurred in the United States. The tax break would expire at the end of Trump’s term.

For seniors, there would be a bolstered $4,000 deduction on Social Security wages for those with adjusted incomes no higher than $75,000 for individuals and $150,000 for couples.

But one hard-fought provision, the deduction for state and local taxes known as SALT, appears to be a work in progress. The legislation proposes lifting the cap to $15,000 for single filers and $30,000 for couples, but with a reduction at higher incomes — about $200,000 for singles and $400,000 for couples.

“Still a hell no,” wrote Rep. Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) on social media.

Battle over Medicaid, food aid

Meanwhile, dozens of House Republicans have told Johnson and GOP leaders they will not support cuts to Medicaid, which provides some 70 million Americans with healthcare, nor to green energy tax breaks that businesses back home have been relying on to invest in new wind, solar and renewable projects.

All told, 11 committees in the House have been compiling their sections of the package as Republicans seek at least $1.5 trillion in savings to help cover the cost of preserving the 2017 tax breaks, which are expiring at the end of the year.

The final section from the Agriculture Committee proposed cutting the Supplemental Nutrition and Assistance Program, known as SNAP, by expanding work requirements, limiting future expansions of the program and forcing states to shoulder more of the cost.

Along with new work requirements for older Americans, it would also require some parents of children older than 7 to work to qualify, down from 18 years old. Only areas with unemployment rates over 10% would be eligible for waivers.

Some Republicans have already balked at the increased costs to the states, which would be required to contribute at least 5% of the cost of SNAP allotments beginning in 2028.

At the same time, the legislation would invest $60 billion in new money for agriculture programs, sending aid to farmers.

On Sunday, House Republicans on the Energy and Commerce Committee unveiled the cost-saving centerpiece of the package, with at least $880 billion in cuts largely to Medicaid to help cover the cost of the tax breaks.

While Republicans insist they are simply rooting out “waste, fraud and abuse” to generate savings with new work and eligibility requirements, Democrats warn that millions of Americans will lose coverage. In the 15 years since Obamacare became law, Medicaid has only expanded as most states have tapped into federal funds.

A preliminary estimate from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said the proposals would reduce the number of people with healthcare by 8.6 million.

To be eligible for Medicaid, there would be new “community engagement requirements” of at least 80 hours per month of work, education or service for able-bodied adults without dependents. People would also have to verify their eligibility to be in the program twice a year, rather than just once.

There are substantial cuts proposed for green energy programs and tax breaks, rolling back climate-change strategies from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act.

Mascaro and Freking write for the Associated Press. AP writers Amanda Seitz, Leah Askarinam and Mary Clare Jalonick contributed to this report.

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