concerns

Do Celtic have ‘big issues’, or will next four days hush concerns?

Below-par showings were forgiven last season as Celtic simply just had to get by to stay in touch at the top before eventually leapfrogging Heart of Midlothian on the final day with a seventh successive league victory.

That Premiership-winning streak has been extended to 13 games following six straight victories to start the campaign, but concerns about performance level remain. Four of those six wins have been by a one-goal margin.

Twelve goals over three wins at Kilmarnock, Dundee United and in the first leg of the Champions League play-off against LASK sent an ominous warning to Celtic’s domestic rivals amid a period of high spending, particularly in forward areas.

Camilo Duran has been the standout summer recruit so far with six goals and three assists in 10 appearances, while record signing Kasper Hogh and fellow big-money arrival Haissem Hassan are yet to fully settle.

Sutton said his old club have been “flat-track bullies” by “beating the teams you expect them to beat”, but the collapse in Austria, plus Sunday’s bruising loss, has highlighted glaring deficiencies.

Even captain Callum McGregor lamented Celtic’s “team of individuals” after the weekend defeat at Ibrox.

Speaking on BBC Radio 5 Live’s Monday Night Club, former striker Sutton also expressed his “great concerns” for O’Neill’s men and said they have “big issues” after a “lightweight” midfield was “run all over” by Rangers.

Celtic have struggled to build up play against coherent pressing teams, which results in opposition sides being offered too much encouragement when the ball turns over.

They faced a whopping 60 shots across both legs with LASK. Forty of them came in a mess of a second leg. In the Premiership alone this season, they have faced 64 attempts, the same number as Hearts and six more than Rangers.

Over just six games, that tally already makes up almost a quarter of the total they faced in the entirety of the 2024-25 league-winning campaign under Brendan Rodgers.

That said, in comparison to last term, which was overseen by Rodgers, Nancy and O’Neill, Celtic’s Premiership numbers show they are currently averaging a far better goal concession rate while scoring and shooting more.

Come Sunday, though, the most crucial statistic could be in the points column.

With a rapid rematch against Rangers offering the chance to move eight points clear of their city rivals after a test against European-level opposition, the next four days will at least be mood-shifting.

Whether that is to O’Neill’s benefit remains unclear.

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Industrial Base Concerns Over Building F/A-XX And F-47 Remain: Top Pentagon Procurement Officer

As both the Navy and the USAF were racing to field a new generation of advanced tactical jets, the seagoing service’s program hit a wall. A major reason behind this from the Pentagon was concern that the U.S. industrial base could not handle simultaneous final development and production of two extremely complex new fighter aircraft. This was a controversial justification that many had a hard time swallowing. The Navy’s program, dubbed F/A-XX, is supposedly back on and a down-select on who will build it is coming soon, but that concern appears to linger among at least one of the Department of War’s top acquisition officials.

Though he remains confident that the U.S. Air Force F-47 sixth-generation fighter will fly in the next two years, Air Force Gen. Dale R. White, Director, Critical Major Weapon Systems — the service’s leading weapons procurement advisor — remains concerned about the overall capacity of industry to provide the military with the aircraft it needs, including two new fighters. His comments were in response to questions about the Navy’s challenges in building its own sixth-gen fighter alongside F-47.

The concerns are “not unique” to the F-47 or the Navy’s program but the problem exists to various degrees across the industrial base too, White told reporters Tuesday during a media roundtable at the Air & Space Forces Air, Space and Cyber Conference that TWZ is attending.

White has a dual-hatted role, serving as the Pentagon’s top weapon’s procurement officer and as the senior acquisition advisor to the Secretary of the Air Force for all acquisition matters.

With the first example of Boeing’s F-47 sixth-generation stealth fighter for the U.S. Air Force now in production, a company official has highlighted how its prototyping effort allowed the program to move forward at a rapid pace. Winning the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) program was “humbling,” said Steve Parker, president and CEO of Boeing Defense, Space and Security. He added that the fact the F-47 is now in production is testament to “the maturity of our design and pedigree coming off the prototype.”
A rendering of the F-47. (U.S. Air Force) U.S. Air Force

“We’re seeing it in multiple platforms,” said White, who did not elaborate. “And so what we’re having to do is, at some point, we’re having to make some trade space in between some of these.”

“I see Boeing making smart investments,” White said of the prime contractor of the F-47, selected for the U.S. Air Force’s Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) ‘fighter’ initiative. “They have a lot of CAPEX [capital expenditure] that they’re pouring in, but we have to get through the process of the design piece, getting that completed and closed out. Then we all hit some major milestones with things like flight tests and software and those things.”

F-47 specifications infographic (USAF)

“Really, it’s just being able to manage the overall resourcing as it relates to number one, people resources,” the general added. “Number two, when you start getting into the production conversation, do we have enough capacity to be able to produce at that rate? And so, by and large, I have concerns. I have concerns about the capacity of our industrial base, but they are not unique to F-47 or to any program.”

As for the F-47, White said the program “continues to progress exceptionally well.”

“As you know, many, many years in tech maturation and risk reduction gave us a tremendous head start on this program,” White explained. “Extremely proud of what the team has done, what they continue to do each and every day. We are still absolutely on path to be able to hit the mark of flying within this administration. So we see no issues in front of us right now.”

While the first example of the F-47 has been in production for about a year now, the Navy has yet to even select a prime contractor for its next generation fighter. The current competitors for the F/A-XX are Boeing and Northrop Grumman. A decision was supposed to have been made by last month.

“The F/A-XX program remains on track, and we have no further information to provide at this time,” a Navy official told us last week.

Despite intervention from Congress, the next-generation carrier-based fighter has remained in question since the Pentagon moved to effectively shelve the program last year.

In response to a question from TWZ earlier this year, the Chief of Naval Operations acknowledged the uncertainty over the F/A-XX program.

“One of the challenges we’re seeing is, not only [are] our peer competitors improving their capability for anti-air, either air-to-air or surface-to-air, but the lower cost of entry of very capable weapons is also making more players on the field in which that level of stealth and technology is required,” Adm. Daryl Caudle told us back in April at the Sea-Air-Space 2026 exposition. “So this is not about the need for a peer adversary. This is just having an aircraft that can operate with a level of uncertainty and with the acceptable level of risk.”

With Boeing as a finalist, it is also possible that F/A-XX could be a variant of the F-47. As we noted in a past story, the Boeing render for its F/A-XX concept is remarkably similar to artwork for its F-47.

Last year, Steve Parker, Boeing Defense and Space CEO, said he didn’t see a problem with his company building both jets stating that this had been part of the strategy all along.

If this is the case, the company’s claim that it would not have a problem building both the Navy and Air Force next-generation fighters would make more sense. There are a number of advantages when it comes to establishing a high-degree of commonality between F/A-XX and F-47, although there would also be challenges, especially when it comes to getting the most out of a design that was not meant to operate from a carrier deck and scaling production up for both services. There is already significant sharing of elements of both the Navy’s and Air Force’s sixth-generation fighter programs. So commonality in some subsystems and interoperability is already baked in.

We should hopefully finally get a clearer picture in the coming weeks about the status of the F/A-XX and possibly the answer to who will actually build it, which will give us a better idea of what the industrial base impact actually will be.

Contact the author: howard@twz.com

Howard is a Senior Staff Writer for TWZ. He writes frequently about conflict, focusing heavily on the Middle East and Ukraine, and interviews with military and intelligence officials and industry leaders from around the globe. He lives near Tampa, Florida, home of U.S. Central Command, U.S. Special Operations Command.


Tyler’s passion is the study of military technology, strategy, as well as foreign policy, and he has fostered a dominant voice on those topics in the defense and national security space. Tyler was the creator of the hugely popular defense site Foxtrot Alpha before developing TWZ, which he continues to lead as the Editor-In-Chief to this day.


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Prince Harry and Meghan move children to new school over security concerns

Prince Harry and his wife, Meghan, have moved their two children to a new school over security concerns, a spokesperson said Tuesday, just weeks after the family returned to the U.K. to make a fresh start.

“The decision for the children to move school was taken following a discussion with the family’s security team about the practicalities of their current arrangements,” the spokesperson said in a statement.

Prince Archie, 7, and Princess Lilibet, 5, had only just started the new school year in England after the family relocated from California in late August.

British media reported that the distance of the school run and the heavy traffic on the route were among the concerns raised by the couple and their security team. The family is living at a private, non-royal residence outside of London.

“This decision should in no way be interpreted as a reflection on the school or the exceptional care the children have received there,” the statement added.

The news followed reports that Harry and Meghan were awaiting a new risk assessment from the government committee that reviews protection of VIPs, including a decision on whether the family should be entitled to publicly funded security now that they live in the U.K.

Harry and Meghan gave up their royal duties and moved to California more than six years ago, saying they wanted to earn their own living. They later signed lucrative contracts with Netflix and Spotify.

Although relations with the rest of the royal family have soured since then, Harry has recently expressed an interest in reconciliation so he could spend more time with his father, King Charles III.

Harry has fought a long-running battle with Britain’s government for the restoration of publicly funded police protection, which was canceled when the couple gave up their royal roles.

He had previously said he couldn’t “see a world in which I would be bringing my wife and children back to the U.K.” without a security guarantee.

Earlier this month, the king reiterated that Harry and Meghan remain non-working members of the royal family and would continue to refrain from using formal royal titles, such as his royal highness and her royal highness, as they have done since 2020. The couple said they were surprised by the way the monarch issued that statement because they were given little time to review it.

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Rogue AI concerns prompt CA lawmakers to demand penalties, guardrails

California lawmakers are calling for emergency legislation and criminal penalties for creators of rogue AI systems after top AI executives publicly claimed that their technology poses existential threats to humanity.

After Anthropic Chief Executive Dario Amodei wrote in a Sept. 12 essay that they “must slow the pace” of the technology, Silicon Valley congressman Ro Khanna (D-Fremont) blasted him for not going “nearly far enough” to make sure artificial intelligence was erected with guardrails.

The answer, Khanna argued, was simple: Make the companies liable for the harm executives say looks increasingly inevitable.

“If you’re creating an AI that is doing illegal things, you should either face liability or criminal sanction,” Khanna said in a video posted to X on Saturday. “That is what we need to protect humanity.”

In July, officials from OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, disclosed that, unbeknownst to them, its AI models had hacked into rival startup Hugging Face.

Amodei said he believed that, within the next year, “given the accelerating rate of AI capability development,” a similar incident could lead to AI “taking over the entire internet.”

Amodei warned in his essay that AI was rapidly improving itself, through a process known as recursive self-improvement, which threatened to outpace humans’ ability to control it. Khanna argued that banning this capability was the “most obvious” thing Anthropic could do.

“We need to stop, ban self-improving AI,” Khanna said. “You can not have recursive self-improving AI that basically is able to improve itself and exceed human capability.”

Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) expressed similar outrage over the weekend, calling on House Speaker Mike Johnson to call lawmakers back to Washington to pass guardrails on the technology now that he said multiple AI companies had conceded “what they are creating is not safe.”

xAI Chief Executive Elon Musk and OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman joined Amodei’s call for a slowdown of the breakneck development Saturday.

The statements come after Jacob Coxon, who worked as a researcher at both Anthropic and OpenAI, said in a widely circulated post that he resigned from the company in protest after becoming convinced the tech giants were “racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives.” Neither company immediately responded to a request for comment.

“This is a direct result of the trump Administration letting the AI industry run wild,” Lieu wrote on X. “That mistake has harmed America, harmed the industry and harmed the American people. November is coming.”

Former President Barack Obama urged Democrats this week to make AI oversight the core of their agenda and said presidential candidates in 2028 should have a “clear plan” for responding to concerns about the technology, the New York Times reported. Americans appear increasingly alarmed by the technology with seven in 10 polled in March opposing local construction of data centers that power AI technology, according to a Gallup survey.

During a Sunday appearance on CNN, Johnson rebuffed the idea that lawmakers should rush into an emergency session to consider erecting industry guardrails. Instead, he said lawmakers needed to be careful to “not smother American innovation.”

“We will lose the race to China, and that is a threat to every single American,” he said on CNN’s “State of the Union.” “We don’t need everyone to panic right now.”

Trump said earlier this week that he is not concerned with the pace of AI progress, telling one reporter, “It’s going to be fine.” American AI companies have long argued too much government regulation would shackle them in a race with China.

Calls for a federal fix were echoed this week by California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has argued the Trump administration needs to move on national legislation to prepare for fallout from the technology.

Newsom signed bills this week aimed at creating a pathway for outside audits of the top AI companies, many of which are based in California, and a registry for AI auditors.

“The scale and potential consequences of this technology demand sustained action from every level of government,” Newsom said in a statement. “The federal government must step forward with robust, national regulations that match the urgency of this moment.”

Efforts to impose state-level regulations have been mixed, with critics echoing Johnson’s fears that they will stifle innovation.

Late last month, California lawmakers passed sweeping new safeguards around social media, artificial intelligence and data centers, including the ones Newsom signed last week.

Newsom will now decide the fate of the rest of the bills. He has previously vetoed some bills aimed at restricting big tech.

Newsom’s signal that he supports creating some regulation for AI comes two years after he vetoed SB 1047, an AI safety bill that would have required developers to submit safety protocols to the state attorney general, who could hold companies liable if the AI model they directly controlled were to threaten public safety. That legislation would also have required tech firms to be able to turn off the models they directly control if things went awry.

Newsom said at the time the bill would give the public a “false sense of security,” without making a sufficient distinction between the kinds of uses for which AI is deployed.

The bill was supported by a host of prominent AI researchers, but was opposed by Meta, OpenAI and industry groups.

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OpenAI unveils GPT‑6 Astra amid rising scrutiny and safety concerns | Business and Economy News

ChatGPT creator’s latest release comes amid heightened fears following AI-led hacking of the startup Hugging Face.

OpenAI has announced the release of what it says is its most advanced AI model, amid heightened scrutiny of the risks of the frontier technology escaping human control.

The $852bn start-up said in its announcement on Thursday that GPT‑6 Astra, the “world’s most intelligent and aligned” AI model, earned perfect or near-perfect scores in key benchmarks of AI reasoning, beating both its prior release GPT 5.6 Sol and rival Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.

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The ChatGPT creator said GPT‑6 would become available to the general public in the coming days, following its initial launch with a “limited set of organisations”.

OpenAI’s latest release comes as the AI industry is at the centre of a lively public debate about the dangers of the cutting-edge technology following the AI-led hacking of the startup Hugging Face in July.

An independent probe into the cyberattack found that hundreds of OpenAI’s AI agents had begun communicating among themselves before breaking out of their controlled environment and compromising Hugging Face’s servers.

On Thursday, US Senator Bernie Sanders, an Independent, and US House Representative Greg Casar, a Democrat, unveiled legislation that would pause the development of advanced AI until the establishment of federal safety rules and an outright ban on the creation of “superintelligent” AI.

“Nearly every day, there is a frightening new story about how Big Tech companies are losing control of the technology they are developing, with potentially cataclysmic results,” Sanders said in a statement announcing the legislation, which is unlikely to advance due to the Republicans’ control of all three branches of the US government.

“The leaders of the major AI companies publicly acknowledge that they do not fully understand the technology and that it is escaping their control. It is irresponsible for society to allow them to move forward and make these products even more advanced.”

In its announcement, OpenAI devoted significant space to AI safety, highlighting both GPT‑6’s potential to do harm and its safety features.

Toby Walsh, a professor and AI expert at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, said that while OpenAI is clearly “neck and neck” in the race to lead AI, the technology remains inconsistent and in need of greater scrutiny.

“The intelligence in artificial intelligence is still today very jagged,” Walsh said. “There are simple things that even the best AI models do poorly.

“And it’s hard to see how the AI companies, including OpenAI, are slowing down to address justified concerns around cyber risk, when new models are being released at an ever greater and greater rate.”

Roman Yampolskiy, a computer scientist at the University of Louisville, said GPT‑6 marks a “meaningful” advance that raises the stakes for AI safety.

“The key question is whether capabilities are improving faster than our ability to reliably understand, predict and control these systems,” Yampolskiy said.

“I see little evidence that this gap is closing.”

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Dodgers sit Shohei Ohtani vs. Cardinals amid health concerns

Shohei Ohtani was out of the lineup Thursday and his availability is a “day-to-day situation,” manager Dave Roberts announced before the Dodgers’ series finale against the St. Louis Cardinals.

The area around Ohtani’s right biceps and neck was bothering him during the Dodgers’ loss Wednesday, Roberts said.

“It just wasn’t firing the way he wanted it to,” Roberts said. “That’s why I think you saw some grimacing and some kind of shaking of the arm just trying to get it to fire and he couldn’t do that.”

Ohtani was not made available to talk before the game, and he declined requests for comment twice during the Dodgers’ road series in Detroit this past weekend. He last spoke to reporters on Aug. 17.

Ohtani’s health has been scrutinized for much of the season and even more over the last week. He hasn’t pitched since July 3 because of soreness and threw a bullpen session last Friday in hopes of pitching one inning Sunday against the Detroit Tigers. But, not feeling “100%,” as Roberts put it, Ohtani didn’t return to the mound, and his throwing progression stalled.

Though Roberts described Ohtani’s ailment as an overall issue, including his left knee and right biceps, he remained in the lineup. Roberts said then that he’d been given no indication that swinging the bat was affecting Ohtani, but if that changed, the manager would have no problem with sitting the superstar.

Wednesday, as Ohtani went 0 for 4 in the midst of a two-for-23 skid, his body language sounded alarm bells.

“I saw the same thing that everyone saw,” Roberts said after the Dodgers’ 8-6 loss to the Cardinals. “I saw the shaking of the arm, I saw the wincing, and clearly the swings aren’t who he is. And so, obviously, there’s some compensation. So I’m going to talk to him, and then I’ll make a decision about his availability.”

Roberts said a stint on the injured list was unlikely “but not impossible.”

“Ideally, he takes it as a mental and physical day,” Roberts said. “And then it’s just getting together with him later [Thursday] and seeing how the day is and how [he responds to] the day of rest. … At that point in time, we can make a decision as far as [Friday].”

Managing Ohtani’s health will continue to be a priority for the Dodgers. He’s been dealing with lingering knee soreness and inflammation since at least mid-June, and his biceps issue has flared several times this season.

Ohtani’s buildup back to pitching has been halted twice since he received an Orthovisc injection to lubricate the knee joint over the All-Star break.

As valuable as Ohtani is to the Dodgers as a pitcher, his offensive impact is needed far more, especially with left-hander Tarik Skubal added to the rotation. If continuing to try to pitch jeopardizes Ohtani’s production with his bat, it may be in the team’s best interest to take pitching off the table for him.

Tommy Edman was penciled into the leadoff spot and will play center field, while Alex Call will be the designated hitter and bat eighth.

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Commentary: New CTE study renews parental concerns about teenagers playing football

New headlines this week are raising concerns for parents of high school football players.

According to a study published from researchers at Mass General Brigham, Boston University and the Concussion & CTE Foundation, one in four former NFL players who died between 2016 and 2021 might have had chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). There were 338 brains donated to study, and 315 of them had evidence of CTE, a brain disorder that can happen because of repeated injuries to the head.

Allan Walsh, a sports agent and lawyer, said in a tweet: “This is a crisis.”

Parents have previously debated among themselves the risks and rewards in letting a son or daughter play a contact sport, but this new study regarding football head injuries is once again going to rattle, if not cause a retreat, from some allowing family members to participate in football.

“It causes concern,” said Mike Hamilton, a former high school football and basketball coach who has a son playing football at Chatsworth High. “Sometimes I’m like, ‘Do I want him to play?’ I’m apprehensive. He has a passion for the game. He’s conscience about his health. What gives me relief is knowing that practices are going well. There are protocols parents should abide by. We didn’t let our son play football until he got to high school because of the hits.”

Tim Moscicki, an athletic trainer at Loyola High for 38 years, said much has changed for the better in protecting football players from concussions and other head injuries. He said new policies, improved equipment, a focus on tackling fundamentals and new protocols are all having an impact.

Loyola athletic trainer Tim Moscicki runs a test, called baselining, on a student in 2014 to help diagnose concussions.

Loyola athletic trainer Tim Moscicki doing baselining of students in 2014 to help diagnose concussions.

(Eric Sondheimer / Los Angeles Times)

He remembers the days when coaches would say, “He got his bell rung.” The player would sit out a few plays, then get put back in. Now that term is barred from everyone’s vocabulary. New rules requiring players to sit out a minimum of seven days following a concussion while needing clearance from a doctor to return and tackling restrictions put in during weekly practices show the CIF is taking CTE concerns in a serious matter for high school sports.

“To me. football has gotten a lot safer,” Moscicki said. “Right now, given what’s in place, it’s safe to play football. Kids are being held out now when they develop any kind of symptom. Back in 1990, if a kid had a concussion and they were free of symptoms for 24 hours, we’d give them their helmet back, ‘You can play.’

“My thing it’s still up to parents if they want their sons to play football. My youngest played football, oldest played lacrosse. There’s always a risk. There’s a risk riding a bike. There’s risk playing baseball. It’s a just a little higher in the full-contact sports. The standards have changed so much. There really wasn’t a return to play protocol in the ‘70s ‘80s and ‘90s.”

Moscicki was one of the first high school athletic trainers to do baselining of all students, giving them tests of their balance and brain functions so it can be used and compared with a similar exam if the student is suspected of having a concussion. Loyola also started a return-to-school program because students with concussions have headaches that also affects their school work.

Parents must understand “you cannot prevent a concussion,” Moscicki said.

“If you get hit hard enough, there’s nothing out there that would 100% prevent a concussion,” he said. “A concussion happens as a result of your brain hitting the inside of your skull.”

The good news is everyone seems to be endorsing funding research into head injuries, including the NFL. It’s still too early to conclude where the research is headed.

That’s where parental choice comes into play.

“Football is a sport,” Moscicki said. “You don’t have to play it. You don’t have to watch it.”

And yet, the Super Bowl is the most watched annual television broadcast in the United States, with lots of monetary rewards for those who participate.

There are many challenges ahead. Pierce College and Orange Coast College paused their junior college football programs this year for lack of players. Junior varsity programs at lots of high schools have been discontinued for lack of players. A CIF participation survey for 2025-26 found 11-man football is the most popular boys sport with 87,718 participants, a drop of 4% from last school year.

“Anything that’s a contact sport runs a risk,” Hamilton said. “You want to protect your son.”

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Gladys Knight ‘easing into fewer’ concerts after health concerns

Gladys Knight has announced she’s gearing up to embrace the next phase of her life and career at 82.

The announcement comes after recent performances raised alarm with fans and staff worried about the storied singer’s health.

“After much soul searching I’ve decided that I will be easing into fewer performances while focusing on transitioning into the next stage of my career and life moving forward,” Knight said via Instagram on Thursday.

Knight said she’ll be spending more time on projects with her husband and manager; William McDowell, 68; and visiting with her grandchildren.

“I’d like to take a moment, in advance, to thank all my fans over this last three quarters of a century for making a little girl’s dream come true and supporting her every step of the way,” she continued. “I am immensely grateful to all of you and send my eternal love back to you. … I hope to see your smiling faces out and about and on the road.”

Her publicity team declined further comment Friday.

During her Aug. 18 show in Detroit, Knight took several breaks. And back in July at the Hollywood Bowl, the Grammy-winner seemed to lose her place while belting, “Midnight Train to Georgia,” one of her signature songs.

Backup singers appeared to come to the rescue more than once, guiding the singer back toward the stage as she wandered off and filling in when the lyrics to her classic soul hits seemed to escape her.

In an interview with the Shade Room last year, Knight’s son, Shanga Hankerson, claimed McDowell pushed the singer into performing and manipulates her.

Hankerson said that he drove to North Carolina to see his mom and was kept from being alone with her. He subsequently filed a complaint with the state Department of Health and Human Services.

“I noticed that William would always chime in, make sure that I didn’t get to speak with her by myself or by herself,” he said.

During a performance, Hankerson said he was concerned watching as his mom, who’s been performing for 75 years, fumbled through the set.

“The band played two or three extra bars, and she zoned out. The background singer started singing, and that brought her back. They’re having to rewind the teleprompters because my mom is forgetting to even look at them,” he said.



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Warsh flags inflation concerns as he rejects Fed forward guidance

Marking his 100th day in the job, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the Kansas City Fed’s symposium in Wyoming that the US economy has strengthened rather than weakened under recent shocks, that the labour market is consistent with full employment, and that inflation remains the central bank’s dominant concern.


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Warsh declined to say what he would do next month, but he removed most of the arguments against acting and bolstered the ones in favour of a rate hike.

“For my part, today I am impressed by the overall performance of the economy, which appears to have strengthened,” Warsh stated.

“One indicator of strength is how well an economy holds up to shocks. On that score, both Main Street and Wall Street have been remarkably resilient,” he added.

On inflation, Warsh noted that the PCE index stood at 3.7% over twelve months and 4.1% over six, and 54% of the basket’s components rose by more than 3% over the past year, against 32% in the two decades before the pandemic.

Summer readings that beat expectations “do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” Warsh stated.

The Federal Reserve Chair’s conclusion was blunt: “the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be on prices.”

The standard set was equally direct. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do,” Warsh declared.

That assessment matters because it eliminates the case for supporting growth with further stimulus and potentially opens the door for restrictive measures as markets moved in response.

At the time of writing, the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 0.5% from its Friday high to 4.67% and the 30-year dropped around 0.9% to 5.16%, while the dollar index rose 0.4% from the intraday low to roughly 99.4 points.

Traders raised the implied probability of a 0.25% hike at the 15 and 16 September Fed meeting to 55%, from around 35% before Warsh’s speech.

Performance of the US economy

Warsh opened his speech with what he called a hinge point in history, arguing that artificial intelligence has advanced faster than even its advocates predicted.

Annualised AI token sales at the two leading labs alone exceed $100 billion, he said, up more than 500% in a year.

AI is “a new variable, potentially a new factor of production,” raising questions the Fed cannot answer yet such as whether it will lift productivity and when, whether it complements or replaces labour, and where the returns will ultimately land.

A new Federal Reserve task force on productivity and jobs is examining it, though he stressed its recommendations will have no bearing on current policy decisions.

Warsh then listed extensive evidence for his positive outlook on the US economy.

Business investment in equipment and intangibles growing at around 9%, its fastest since 2021, with more than half of this year’s capital expenditure growth attributable to the AI buildout.

S&P 500 profits went up more than 20% over the year, credit spreads are near historic lows and banks are easing lending standards. Housing and agriculture are strained, Warsh acknowledged, but on balance he “would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”

Unemployment at 4.1% is low by historical standards, with jobless claims near their lowest in decades, leaving inflation as the outlier.

No forward guidance

The Federal Reserve Chair devoted a substantial section to defending his refusal to signal future moves, a stance that has drawn criticism since he took office in May.

Forward guidance was adopted during the 2008 crisis by colleagues including himself, he said, and was essential then, but “the practice has overstayed its welcome” and now “risks creating ambiguity in the name of clarity.”

Warsh warned of a hall-of-mirrors problem in which markets read the Fed while the Fed reads markets, leaving both blind to new developments.

“We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade,” he said, adding that the costs of such errors fall not on “financial high-fliers” but on households facing high inflation or insecure jobs.

Warsh also rejected calls to publish an explicit reaction function, arguing economic knowledge does not permit a mechanical rule.

Instead he set out six principles: interrogate incoming data rather than trust stale figures, accept that judging supply against demand is imprecise; treat the 2% PCE target as firm and fixed; pursue both mandates without treating them as a trade-off; rely on short-term rates rather than unconventional tools; and remember that money itself matters.

“I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision,” Warsh said in closing.

The decision comes on 16 September at the next Fed meeting.

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