closing

If you’re looking for the most elegant way to wrap up our “little excursion” in Iran, it’s this: President Trump should follow what might politely be called the “declare victory and head for the airport” strategy.

You know the drill: Announce that we’ve set back Iran’s nuclear programs a decade, pounded their navy into submission, and turned the ayatollah into a fine mist. Mission accomplished! Thank you for flying the friendly skies, and please return your seat backs to their full upright and locked position.

Don’t get me wrong. This “cut and run” routine is less than ideal. Trump will have signaled to the world he (we) can’t endure any insurgent resistance, empowered the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to run the country and likely angered Israel in the process.

But his domestic political base will believe he won, and fan service has always been his top political priority.

Besides, once you’ve entered a war without a coherent justification, clearly defined goals or a credible exit strategy, you’re lucky to get out at all. A salutary outcome no longer exists; that ship has already sailed.

Speaking of which, as I write this, we are drifting toward what feels like a point of no return. Mining the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran is now attempting to do, is the ultimate trump card.

Using mines to shut down this narrow shipping lane — which contributes about 20% of the world’s oil supply, not to mention natural gas and fertilizer — could result in a crippled global economy, mass casualties and a situation in which the president can no longer save face while cutting and running.

As retired U.S. Navy Adm. James Stavridis writes, “Iran has been planning a Strait of Hormuz closure operation for decades and probably has more than 5,000 mines; just one hit can severely damage a thin-skinned tanker.”

Yes, once laid, minefields can be cleared. But Stavridis predicts it would take “weeks, if not a month or two” to clear thousands of mines. He warns: “The global economy needs to be prepared for a month or two shutdown.” (Complicating matters is the fact that our dedicated minesweepers were recently decommissioned.)

The Iranians are not idiots. They watch American politics. They understand that Trump’s pressure point isn’t Tehran — it’s the S&P 500. A bad week on Wall Street makes him jumpier than a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs.

Trump, whatever else you say about him, is a transactional materialist who approaches geopolitics the way a real estate developer approaches zoning disputes: What’s the angle, where’s the leverage, and can everybody just settle already?

Unfortunately, the fellows running Iran are religious zealots who believe — deeply, sincerely and somewhat alarmingly — in something larger than quarterly economic indicators. Their strategic plan appears to consist of two options: survive (which they see as tantamount to victory), or die gloriously while insisting they meant to do that all along.

Which makes their current behavior grimly logical.

The Iranian regime, such as it is, doesn’t have much to lose. But they know exactly what Trump has to lose: His popularity and political legacy are now tied to the price of oil.

Releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves will help to some extent, but this is not a long-term solution. And Iran is betting that when the price at the pump for U.S. consumers starts looking like a luxury car payment, Trump will do what critics like to summarize as TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out.”

Lots of American political observers agree. And it’s not just moderates or RINOs who are teasing this.

Referring to the U.S. military, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business: “They have to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. I don’t care what it costs.”

“If they can’t keep it open,” Gingrich continued, “this war will, in fact, be an American defeat before very long, because the entire world, including the American people, will react to the price of oil if the strait stays closed very long.”

Perhaps the U.S. military can pull off a delicate trick: keep our “armada” in the region, keep the Strait of Hormuz open, clear any mines that are laid and prevent some unlucky tanker from being hit by a mine — or, for that matter, by a drone or missile fired from the Iranian coast. That final risk is why some military analysts believe reopening the strait would require a ground operation.

Imagine that the U.S. manages to thread these needles. Then what?

Total and complete surrender? Regime change? Boots on the ground?

Absent a swift exit (like, tomorrow), we’re left with the two classic options of power politics: a delayed and more ignominious retreat or increased escalation.

And, historically speaking, American presidents are more likely to double down — with tragic results.

Matt K. Lewis is the author of “Filthy Rich Politicians” and “Too Dumb to Fail.”

An AeroVironment LOCUST laser directed energy weapon owned by the U.S. Army was central to the chain of events that led to the recent shutdown of airspace around El Paso, Texas, according to Reuters. Though many questions still remain to be answered about how the flight restrictions came to be imposed, LOCUST was designed to respond to exactly the kinds of drones that regularly fly across the southern border from Mexico.

Readers can get caught up on what is known about the clampdown in the skies above El Paso on Wednesday in initial reporting here.

Multiple outlets had already reported yesterday that the use of a laser counter-drone system was a key factor in the Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) sudden decision to impose the temporary flight restrictions over El Paso. Reuters‘ report says “two people briefed on the situation” identified the laser system in question as LOCUST. TWZ has reached out to AeroVironment and the U.S. Army for more information. U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), which oversees U.S. military operations in and around the homeland, declined to comment.

Last July, the U.S. military released a picture, seen below, showing Army personnel assigned to Joint Task Force-Southern Border (JTF-SB) conducting sling-load training with a LOCUST mounted on a 4×4 M1301 Infantry Squad Vehicle (ISV) at Fort Bliss. This had prompted some speculation that LOCUST systems might be in use along the U.S. border with Mexico. JTF-SB was established in March 2025 to oversee a surge in U.S. military support to the border security mission. Fort Bliss, situated in El Paso, is a major hub for those operations. It is also home to the 1st Armored Division and a significant number of Army air defense units.

As of December 2025, the U.S. Army was known to have taken delivery of LOCUST systems in at least three different configurations, including the ISV-based type. The service has also received 4×4 Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV) equipped with the laser and a palletized version. In 2022, the Army confirmed the operational deployment of two of the palletized systems to unspecified foreign locales. The full extent of the service’s operational use of LOCUST since then, abroad or at home, is unclear.

The U.S. Marine Corps has also moved to acquire JLTV-based LOCUST systems, and other configurations have been put forward in the past. AeroVironment completed is acqusition of BlueHalo, the original developer of LOCUST, last year.

At LOCUST’s core is a 20-kilowatt-class laser directed energy weapon. This is at the lower end of the power spectrum for this new era of laser directed energy weapons, and the system is explicitly geared toward the countering small drones mission set.

The turreted system also includes built-in electro-optical and infrared video cameras for target acquisition and tracking. It can be cued to threats by tertiary sensors, including small-form-factor high-frequency radars and passive radio frequency signal detection systems mounted on the vehicles themselves, as well as traditional radars, and other capabilities positioned elsewhere. The Army’s ISV and JLTV-based configurations both feature small radars.

LOCUST Laser Weapon System

As a relatively small system itself, LOCUST offers additional benefits in terms of mobility and flexibility. Road-mobile versions can readily deploy and redeploy to different locations in response to shifting threats. As the sling load training picture shows, versions of the system can be readily airlifted by helicopters, allowing for rapid movement to remote locales. Palletized configurations offer different types of flexibility for providing point defense at sites on land, and could potentially be installed on ships, as well.

In general, laser directed energy weapons offer the promise of functionally unlimited magazine depth, as long as there is sufficient power and cooling capacity. They also present a drastically lower cost-per-intercept proposition compared to traditional anti-air interceptors. This is all advantageous for engaging drones, particularly smaller and cheaper designs that can still present very significant threats. The dangers posed by uncrewed aerial systems are only set to grow as networked swarming and automated targeting capabilities, enabled by advances in artificial intelligence and machine learning, become more accessible. Defenders already face real risks of just being overwhelmed by attacks involving volumes of drones.

Depending on their power level, laser weapons are envisioned as being employed against larger, as well as higher and faster flying targets, such as cruise missiles, in the future. As already noted, LOCUST is not in that power category and is focused on going after small drones, like quadcopter.

With these promised benefits in mind, the Army has been very active in its pursuit of multiple tiers of ground-based laser directed energy weapon systems, with power ratings ranging from 5 to 300 kilowatts, for years now. This includes the 50-kilowatt Directed Energy Maneuver Short-Range Air Defense (DE M-SHORAD) system based on the Stryker light armored vehicle and a truck-mounted 300-kilowatt design for the Indirect Fires Protection Capability-High Energy Laser (IFPC-HEL) effort. Many of these systems have been primarily intended to serve as stepping stones to future operational capabilities. In recent years, there have been a number of additional laser directed energy development efforts, often focused on the counter-drone mission, across the U.S. military, and for use in the air and naval domains, as well as by forces on land.

As mentioned, the Army received its first versions of LOCUST in the early 2020s, as part of a rapid prototyping effort called the Palletized-High Energy Laser (P-HEL). The service tested multiple laser weapon designs under P-HEL. The Army has acquired the ISV and JLTV-based configuration through a follow-on effort called the Army Multi-Purpose High Energy Laser (AMP-HEL).

At the same time, a laser like LOCUST can only engage a single target at once. Lower-powered lasers need to dwell on their targets for a longer period of time in order to cause significant damage by burning a hole in them, as well. This limits the number of targets a single system can engage in a given window of time.

In addition, the power of any laser beam drops as it propagates through the atmosphere further and further away from its source. Weather and other environmental factors like smoke and dust can also distort the beam and reduce its power. All of this only adds to the aforementioned dwell time. Adaptive optics, and just more power overall, can help produce useful effects at greater distances, but laser weapons continue to have short ranges, typically measured in handfuls of miles, as a general rule. As an aside, LOCUST was originally described as a 10-kilowatt system and a version has at least been demonstrated with a 26-kilowatt power rating. How much more can be scaled up within the existing form factor is unclear.

The Army, as well as other branches of the U.S. military, have repeatedly acknowledged challenges in fielding laser directed energy weapon systems. Sensitivity to vibration, humidity, dust, and sand, as well as fragile optics and cooling demands, have all created further complications for operating and sustaining these systems in real-world environments. In 2024, Doug Bush, then Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology, did tell members of the Senate Armed Services Committee that unspecified laser weapons emplaced at fixed sites “are proving successful” for “some” users. This was seen at the time as a likely reference to the overseas deployment of the palletized version of LOCUST.

U.S. military officials regularly stress that lasers are not a ‘silver bullet’ solution to the problem of drones or other aerial threats, and they expect to field them as part of layered defense networks. High-power microwave directed energy weapons and electronic warfare systems have also steadily emerged as key parts of future counter-drone ecosystems, especially for responding to swarm attacks. The pursuit of lasers, specifically, to defeat drones, as well as cruise missiles and potentially other targets, is a growing trend globally, as well. In the naval domain, lasers are also seen as valuable additions to ships for point defense against small watercraft.

Drones, especially smaller types, present their own additional challenges, in general, when it comes to detection and tracking, let alone engaging them with any effector. This has been underscored in reporting surrounding the recent temporary flight restrictions over El Paso.

Official statements so far from the Trump administration have said that the clampdown on the airspace around El Paso resulted from the response to a cross-border incursion of drones operated by Mexican drug cartels, something that happens on a near-daily basis. Questions have since been raised about exactly when the incident the administration has cited may have occurred and whether any drones were actually involved in that particular case.

“The [laser] anti-drone technology was launched near the southern border to shoot down what appeared to be foreign drones,” according to a story yesterday from CBS News, which was among the first to report on that detail. “The flying material turned out to be a party balloon, sources said. One balloon was shot down, several sources said.”

Other outlets, also citing anonymous sources, have since reported on the use of a laser directed energy weapon to down one or more innocuous balloons along the southern border earlier this week. However, the exact relationship between those engagements and the temporary flight restrictions remains murky.

However, “the Mexican cartels have been running drones on the border lately, the sources said, but it was unclear how many were hit by the military’s anti-UAS (unmanned aircraft systems) technology this week,” CBS News‘ report yesterday had also noted. “One official said at least one cartel drone was successfully disabled.”

It has also now been widely reported that U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) personnel have been the ones actually operating the laser systems along the border through an agreement with the U.S. military. This speaks to additional ongoing complications surrounding domestic authorities for responding to drone threats, something TWZ has explored in detail in the past. This is despite significant changes to policies that allow for broader and more rapid responses within the United States, at least on the U.S. military side, just in recent weeks.

Furthermore, a breakdown in coordination between the Army, CBP, and the FAA over the use of lasers along the border, operationally and/or in testing, looks to have been a central factor in the decision to shut down the airspace around El Paso based on the reporting to date.

“My team has been working with the FAA, DOW [Department of War], and others to gather more information about this morning’s temporary airspace closure in El Paso,” Texas Senator Ted Cruz, a Republican, wrote in a post on X yesterday. “I’m hopeful more details can be publicly shared in the coming days on interagency coordination.”

“The amount of misinformation being spread – including by the White House – is alarming and unhelpful,” Veronica Escobar, the Democrat who currently represents the El Paso area in the House of Representatives, also wrote yesterday in a series of posts on X. “To be clear: this was the result of incompetence at the highest levels of the administration.”

More details are yet to come about the exact circumstances surrounding the flight restrictions imposed this week around El Paso. What has already emerged points to a growing use, or at least desire to use, laser directed energy weapons like LOCUST to challenge the current flow of uncrewed aerial systems across the southern border from Mexico.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com