China

WASHINGTON — Markets rejoiced this week over news that the Trump administration, after six weeks of maximalist rhetoric, had struck a preliminary deal with China to lower tariff rates between the two countries. Tech stocks led the rally, with investors hopeful that President Trump had finally retreated from plans for a protracted trade war with a vital trading partner.

But the celebration may be premature, industry insiders, foreign diplomats and market experts said, telling The Times that Silicon Valley will face strong headwinds in the months ahead — the makings of a perfect storm of uncertainty that could still tip the U.S. economy into recession.

Investigation at Commerce

Wall Street reacted with similar exuberance last month on word that tech products, such as smartphones and computers, would be exempt from Trump’s 145% tariffs on China — a figure that was reduced in the deal struck on Monday to 30%, marking a significant reduction, but still far higher than tariffs have ever been on Chinese imports.

And yet the April 12 White House announcement outlining exemptions was widely misunderstood as a walk-back. In fact, those tech products, including the iPhone, are exempted from existing tariff rates only temporarily, because the Commerce Department is conducting an ongoing review of whether to impose separate import duties on the sector over specific national security concerns.

The investigation, under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, is progressing, with the Commerce Department recently ending its acceptance of public comments. The department, led by Secretary Howard Lutnick, could issue findings anytime in the coming months, alongside a tariff rate of unknown size that may severely affect Silicon Valley companies.

The review is causing uncertainty in its own right. But Lutnick has indicated that action is forthcoming. He has repeatedly advocated for the iPhone to be manufactured in the United States — a process that would require a large, skilled workforce in high-tech manufacturing produced by the very universities being targeted by the Trump administration, and would substantially increase the price of computing products for American households.

Scott Bessent, the Treasury secretary who has earned greater confidence than Lutnick from the business community, is the one leading trade negotiations with China, where many of those products are made. That has Silicon Valley executives questioning which one of them is in charge, and whom they should be speaking with, according to one tech executive, speaking on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly.

“The core issue for Silicon Valley lies in the uncertainty and potential cost disruption these bring to critical technology components, especially semiconductors,” said Subhajyoti Bandyopadhyay, a professor of information systems and operations management at the University of Florida.

“While ostensibly about national security, the application of these investigations can introduce significant volatility into supply chain planning and investment decisions. Companies might hesitate to commit to certain sourcing strategies if there’s a persistent threat,” he added. “All of which is to say that there will be quite a bit of turbulence ahead for strategic planners of Silicon Valley firms.”

Looming battle with Europe

Announcing the reduction in trade tensions with China on Monday, Trump turned his attention to the European Union, another major trading partner, and levied a threat.

“The European Union is in many ways nastier than China,” the president said. “They’ll come down a lot. You watch. We have all the cards. They treat us very unfairly.”

But the Europeans believe they have some cards, as well.

Trump’s focus on trade with Europe has been on tangible goods, such as agricultural products, manufactured items, pharmaceuticals and cars — a grouping of products that on their own would show a significant U.S. trade deficit with the continent. But European officials use different math. They want to account for European use of U.S. digital services to level the playing field.

One European official, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said that the taxation of digital services — such as online advertising, social media platforms and streaming services — is expected to be a “significant” component of the upcoming negotiations.

“Silicon Valley should be very concerned,” said Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. “The U.S. really stands to lose if there are certain tariffs that are brought to services, and I think people in the U.S. understand that, and would try to prevent it from happening.”

Targeting the U.S. digital sector offers Europe potent leverage in negotiations with the Trump administration, not only because it represents such a large portion of the American economy, but also because it applies acute pressure on Trump’s political allies in Silicon Valley — a tactic that could ultimately persuade him to cave.

“Trump blinked on the China tariffs at least in part because China aggressively retaliated,” Strain said. “That will be interesting to watch if other trading partners modify their strategy: learning that punching the bully in the nose is the right thing to do.”

Rates remain high on China

One of Trump’s first calls on Monday morning after announcing his temporary truce with China was to Apple’s chief executive, Tim Cook. “He’s going to be building a lot of plants in the United States for Apple,” Trump said. “We look forward to that.”

Apple can’t build them fast enough. Although it committed $500 billion in investments over the next four years in U.S. production, including new plants and a manufacturing academy, uncertainty in the interim will force the company to make hard decisions on its product lines.

Despite some protection from the exemptions in place as the Commerce investigation proceeds, the California tech giant still faces hurdles from the tariffs that remain high across supply chains — not just in China, where rates remain at 30%, but also elsewhere in Asia, including India and Vietnam, which face 10% import duties. In the most recent earnings call, before the China deal was announced, Cook estimated that Apple could incur a $900-million hit from tariffs.

“For companies like Apple, and indeed much of Silicon Valley, this overall environment isn’t just about weathering a storm; it’s about fundamentally rethinking global operations,” Bandyopadhyay said. “We’re already witnessing the strategic pivots.”

To offset the costs of tariffs, Apple could increase the prices of iPhones in the fall. But the company also has to walk a fine line both politically and financially. The Trump administration has been critical of companies such as Amazon that have considered showing consumers the impact of tariffs.

“This is all sort of a game of poker, and also remember, Tim Cook is 10% politician, 90% CEO,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst who covers the technology sector.

Ives said the upcoming iPhone 17 could cost $100 more than the current model, but his firm estimates that could reduce demand by 5%, delaying consumers’ purchases of new devices. Other analysts said it is tough to say if prices will increase, with the smartphone maker keeping prices relatively stable in recent years.

The debate over Apple’s fate has proved to be a sensitive point in U.S. negotiations with Beijing. Last month, the Chinese Foreign Ministry recirculated a video from a visit Cook made to China in 2017, in which he explained why Silicon Valley companies find themselves so reliant on the Chinese supply chain.

“The popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor costs. I am not sure what part of China they go to, but the truth is China stopped being a low-labor-cost country many years ago,” Cook said at the time. “The reason is because of the skill, the quantity of skill in one location, and the type of skill it is.”

“The products we do require really advanced tooling and the precision that you have to have in tooling and working with materials that we do are state-of-the-art,” he added. “If you look at the U.S., you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill a room. In China, you could fill multiple football fields.”

Times staff writer Queenie Wong in San Francisco contributed to this report.

What else you should be reading

The must-read: California to ask federal judge for sweeping pause to Trump’s tariffs
The deep dive: Trade truce with China is hailed, but it may not be enough to stop shortages
The L.A. Times Special: Newsom claims Trump’s tariffs will reduce California revenues by $16 billion

More to come,
Michael Wilner
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On Monday, the United States and China reached an agreement to slash sky-high tariffs for 90 days. Though both sides claimed they could withstand a long trade war, they reached a truce quicker than many analysts expected.

The breakthrough marked a dramatic ratcheting down of trade tensions following the tariff war launched by US President Donald Trump during his “liberation day” announcement on April 2.

Trump initially unveiled so-called reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries before pausing them just one week later. China, however, did not get off the hook and Beijing soon retaliated with tariffs of its own.

Tit-for-tat exchanges quickly snowballed into eye-watering sums. By April 11, tariffs on Chinese goods entering the US had reached 145 percent and levies on US products going to China had swelled to 125 percent.

Tensions were already at boiling point last weekend when US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and He Lifeng, China’s vice-premier, agreed a ceasefire that would slash respective tariffs by 115 percentage points for three months.

US duties on Chinese products will now fall to 30 percent, while China’s tariffs on US goods will drop to 10 percent. Stock Markets rallied on the news, with the Nasdaq Composite climbing 4.3 percent on Monday and gaining 20 percent over its April low.

But one key question has significant implications for trade talks to come: Did Washington or Beijing flinch first?

What did the two countries say?

The tariff suspension, which was sharper than analysts expected, came after two days of trade talks in Geneva, Switzerland. On Monday, the US and China released a joint statement announcing the deal.

The two countries acknowledged the importance of their “bilateral economic and trade relationship” as well as the importance of a “sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship”.

The US and China agreed to establish a mechanism to continue discussing trade relations. China also agreed to “suspend or cancel” non-tariff measures against the US, but did not provide any details.

Speaking to reporters in Geneva last weekend, China’s Vice Premier He described the talks as “candid, in-depth and constructive”.

For his part, US Treasury Secretary Bessent told Bloomberg Television on Monday that “both sides agree we do not want a generalised decoupling.”

“The US is going to do a strategic decoupling in terms of the items that we discovered during COVID were of national security interests – whether it’s semiconductors, medicine, steel,” Bessent said.

After the talks concluded, Trump praised negotiations as a “great trade deal”, adding “we’re not looking to hurt China.” He then claimed a personal win, saying he had engineered a “total reset” with Beijing.

Elsewhere, Hu Xijin, former editor of the Chinese state-run Global Times publication, said on social media that the deal was “a great victory for China”.

What are the terms of the pause?

After the tariff pause had been announced, Bessent said it’s “implausible” that reciprocal tariffs on China will fall below 10 percent. However, he said the April 2 level – set by President Trump at 34 percent – “would be a ceiling”.

He also said “we could see some amount of the fentanyl tariffs… come off.” Earlier this year, Trump put a 20 percent tariff on China, accusing it of not doing enough to stop the flow of fentanyl, a highly addictive and deadly opioid, into the US.

For now, Chinese goods will continue face a 30 percent tariff. In addition, specific products from China, such as electric vehicles, steel and aluminium, are subject to even higher, separate tariffs imposed in recent years.

On Monday, the White House also issued an executive order lowering duties on low-value packages – items costing up to $800 – from China from 120 to 54 percent.

And while a minimum $100 fee on packages from e-commerce sites Temu and Shein will remain in place, the increase to $200 planned for June 1 was dropped.

On the flip side, Beijing pledged to suspend non-tariff forms of retaliation imposed since April 2, such as export restrictions on critical minerals that US manufacturers use in high-tech equipment and clean energy technology.

Notably, the deal does not include concessions from Beijing on several US sticking points, like its huge trade surplus with the US or its exchange rate policy, China is accused of keeping its renminbi artificially low in order to boost export sales.

Tariff suspensions will be in place for 90 days. They will be subject to reviews based on broad negotiations in the coming weeks and months.

Who conceded more ground?

The speed with which the US and China unwound their tariffs, taking many analysts by surprise, suggests the trade war was inflicting pain on both sides.

The tariffs were threatening job losses for Chinese factory workers and higher inflation and empty shelves for American consumers.

But for Piergiuseppe Fortunato, an adjunct professor of economics at the University of Neuchatel in Switzerland, it is clear who wanted the deal more badly.

“First of all, America made more concessions than China. Second, America’s economy, which is unsteady at the moment, is more reliant on China’s than the other way around.”

In April, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the US economy was facing an increased risk of recession as Trump’s trade war – and the accompanying increase in consumer prices – could unleash a “significant slowdown”.

Fortunato told Al Jazeera that “Beijing is not in such a precarious position. Take, for example, its latest export figures.”

China’s exports grew sharply in April. The strong performance, an 8.2 percent increase from the year before, came as Chinese firms diverted trade flows to Southeast Asia, Europe and other destinations.

“I think that Washington overplayed its hand with Beijing,” says Fortunato.

“The White House overestimated the importance of the US market, and underestimated China’s success in diversifying its exports away from the US since the first Trump trade war” in 2018.

What will happen next?

“It could take a long time to reach a detailed agreement, if one is even possible,” notes Fortunato.

In 2018, the US backed away from a potential trade deal following talks with Beijing. The next 18 months saw tariff exchanges before a Phase One deal was signed in January 2020.

However, China did not meet all the terms of that purchase agreement. It fell some 43 percent short of the $200bn worth of goods it agreed to buy from the US by 2021.

Then, the US trade deficit with China jumped up during the COVID-19 pandemic, setting the stage for the current trade war.

Earlier this week, Bessent once again hinted that Washington might be looking for the type of “purchase agreements” that characterised the Phase One deal.

“The US has made noises that it may be going for more purchase agreements. But the American economy took a hit last time from similar arrangements,” says Fortunato.

During Trump’s first trade war with China, the US-China Business Council estimated that 245,000 US jobs were lost.

As the scope of tariffs is greater today, even after last weekend’s announcement, it’s fair to assume that even more jobs will be shed.

In the future, Fortunato suspects the US will “land at an average tariff rate of 15-20 percent, and even higher for China. That’s five times greater than what it was in January… a massive change.”

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Speaking after the trade talks, US President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday: “China will also suspend and remove all of its non-monetary barriers. They’ve agreed to do that,” he said. “It’s going to take a while to paper it. You know, that’s not the easiest thing to paper,” he added.

In early April, China imposed rare earth export restrictions on the US as a major non-tariff countermeasure in response to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. The export controls affected seven critical minerals, on which the US heavily relies. These minerals are essential components in the manufacture of electric vehicles and electronic devices.

Trump’s remarks suggest that whether China will suspend or remove its export controls on these key minerals will be a central term in the negotiations. The removal or suspension of the controls could further bolster optimism surrounding a de-escalation of trade tensions.

On Monday, the world’s two largest economies reached an agreement to pause tariffs for 90 days. The US will reduce tariffs on China to 30% from 145%, while China will lower import levies on US goods to 10% from 125%.

Stock market rally loses steam

The broad-based market rally showed signs of retreat during Tuesday’s Asian session, indicating investor caution over the progress of US-China negotiations. Although both sides agreed to establish a mechanism for further discussions following the weekend’s talks, no specific dates have yet been set for future meetings.

US stock futures declined, pointing to a lower open. As of 4:50 am CEST, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.25%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.47%. By contrast, European major index futures were more resilient, with the Euro Stoxx 600 slipping 0.17%, the DAX flat, and the FTSE 100 falling 0.23%.

Markets are awaiting further details of the agreement, particularly regarding China’s non-tariff countermeasures. Investors are also concerned about whether a comprehensive trade deal can be secured between the two nations after the 90-day pause.

“The critical issue from here is solidifying trade deals and ensuring the reduced tariffs don’t lapse after 90 days,” wrote Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at Capital.com, Australia, in an email. He added that markets would also look to see whether the US can achieve trade deals with other partners. “The markets will also want to see the US maintain this momentum and nut out deals with its other trading partners. Should that happen, the recovery in equities and the dollar ought to continue,” he said.

Euro rebounds from month-low

The US dollar weakened slightly against other major G10 currencies during the early Asian session. The EUR/USD pair rebounded to above 1.11 after falling to as low as 1.1065 on Monday – its lowest since 10 April.

The euro was seen as a major haven asset in April as the trade war heightened fears of a global economic recession. The common currency surged against the greenback last month to its highest level since November 2021. However, the euro’s rally could reverse course if future US-China negotiations lead to further de-escalation of trade tensions.

Investors appear to be seeking bargains in US assets amid an easing of risk-off sentiment. Despite the trade war, the impact on the US economy is expected to remain limited thus far. The market sell-off has been driven more by deteriorating sentiment than by any materialised downturn.

Markets will also turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, due for release on Wednesday. Sticky inflation may further drive up the dollar, thereby putting pressure on the euro. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates twice this year in response to tariff-driven inflationary risks. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is also expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle on economic grounds, albeit on a meeting-by-meeting basis.