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Democratic primary turnout has soared in some states. Can it carry over to November?

Democratic voters are showing up for this year’s primaries in numbers not seen in decades, a pattern emerging across several states that has the party optimistic about its prospects in November when control of Congress will be at stake.

In Tuesday’s primary, Wisconsin Democrats cast nearly 800,000 ballots, their highest total for a midterm in more than 20 years. That followed 1.5 million Democratic voters in Michigan the week before, a midterm record for the state.

The enthusiasm extends beyond the Midwest. Democratic primary turnout also surged this year in Texas and Georgia, states that will have competitive Senate races in the fall.

It is giving Democrats a string of strong showings heading into the midterms, when the president’s party is normally at a disadvantage. That is compounded this year by President Trump’s weak approval ratings, persistent inflation and an unpopular war with Iran.

“The big news is that Democrats are getting huge turnouts,” said David Axelrod, who was a top advisor to President Obama. “That’s been a steady story throughout this period.”

Competitive Democratic primaries have helped drive the surge, giving the party’s voters more reason to participate. Republican primary turnout remained closer to historic norms in Michigan, even with a competitive statewide contest.

Voter turnout in primary elections is an imperfect predictor of general election results, especially when one party has the more compelling early contests. Republicans say they are responding with a major effort to turn out their voters in the fall.

GOP leaders say they can energize voters by tapping into a major fundraising advantage over Democrats and sending Trump back out campaigning, including during a midterm convention in Texas next month.

“Primary turnout doesn’t win general elections,” said Mike Marinella, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. “House Republicans are entering November with the money, momentum, stronger candidates and a battle-tested operation built to turn out voters when it actually counts.”

A pattern in many states, many contests

The scale of the Democratic turnout advantage varied across states, but the pattern extended across much of this year’s competitive landscape for House, Senate or governor’s races.

In Wisconsin, more than 790,000 people voted in the Democratic primary for governor, putting turnout at about 22% of registered voters. More than 1.5 million people voted in Michigan’s recent Democratic Senate primary, which accounted for a little more than 18% of registered voters. It was the state’s highest midterm turnout rate in a Democratic primary since at least 2002 — the same as in Wisconsin, according to an analysis of Associated Press election data.

In Minnesota, Democratic primary turnout was on par with the 2018 midterm election, with both years marking the state’s highest Democratic primary turnout in a midterm year so far this century.

For Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan, turnout in last week’s primary was in line with previous GOP midterm primaries in each state. In Michigan, turnout for the Republican governor’s race was about 11%. In Wisconsin’s Republican primary for governor, it is expected to be about 14%.

“Republicans in Michigan will close the enthusiasm gap by highlighting the massive differences between our nominees and the extreme, out-of-touch politicians the Democrats have nominated,” said Ted Goodman, a spokesperson for the Michigan GOP. “It’s one thing to lead in enthusiasm before we know who is running. Now, the differences are clear.”

Other states that held elections this year also saw significant Democratic primary turnout. In Georgia and Texas, the midterm turnout in the Democratic primaries was higher than it’s been since at least 2002. In Georgia, just over 1 million people voted in May in the Democratic governor’s race, a little more than 13% of registered voters. In Texas, about 2.3 million people voted in March in the Democratic Senate primary, a little more than 12%.

‘Good sign,’ but ‘not a very solid predictor’

The robust primary turnout has been a “good sign for Democrats,” said Corwin Smidt, a political science professor at Michigan State University. But he cautioned that it is “not a very solid predictor” of how voters will break in November.

Smidt pointed to several factors behind the numbers, including high turnout in recent elections, which has created a larger pool of regular voters.

“Voting is a lot of habit-forming,” he said.

He also noted that many of the states with high turnout had what he described as “media spotlight candidacies.”

Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota all held races in August that the news media framed as marquee progressive-versus-moderate contests that probably helped drive Democratic participation.

In Michigan, spending in the Democratic Senate primary topped $80 million, making it one of the most expensive races of the year so far, according to AdImpact. Progressive Abdul El-Sayed narrowly defeated Rep. Haley Stevens after a campaign that drew national attention and energized younger voters and university communities.

Stevens carried Wayne County, the state’s largest source of Democratic votes, and some of the congresswoman’s supporters said before the primary that they would not back El-Sayed if he became the nominee.

In Wisconsin, the governor’s primary was repeatedly reshaped as moderate Democrats left and reentered the race while democratic socialist Francesca Hong consolidated progressive support. Hong lost narrowly to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, a more traditional Democrat.

The races highlight how competitive primaries helped drive attention and also how the winning candidates have work to do to bring their party together for November. Both Wisconsin and Michigan Democrats held unity breakfasts in the days after the primaries.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who backed El-Sayed and Minnesota Senate nominee Peggy Flanagan but did not endorse Hong, said in an interview this week that he expects Democratic voters to bridge their differences for the general election.

“At the end of the day, when it comes to taking on Trump and creating a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate, there is going to be unity, because I think everybody knows how important that is,” he said.

A favorable environment, but a difficult map

Democrats have reason to believe the primary enthusiasm could last. The president’s party has historically lost ground in midterm elections, and Trump enters the fall deeply unpopular amid economic unease and an unpopular war.

Some 33% of American adults approve of his job performance, according to the most recent polling by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs.

But a favorable national environment may not be enough for Democrats. They will need unusually strong turnout to overcome a congressional map that has become more favorable to Republicans.

The number of competitive House races has shrunk considerably this year after Republican-controlled states redrew congressional districts in their favor at Trump’s urging. Some Democratic-controlled states responded, most notably California, but the new lines are expected to produce a net benefit for Republicans, who hold a slim House majority.

Republicans control the Senate 53 to 47, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to win the majority. Democrats will have to generate energy similar to that of Republicans two years ago, Smidt said.

“If we have a national tide like we had in 2024, suddenly that opens the map a little more,” he said.

Cappelletti, Askarinam and Boak write for the Associated Press. Pamela Jo Martin and Samuel Jens of the Associated Press Election Services team contributed to this report from Washington.

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Ryanair, easyJet and BA passengers urged to carry out simple hack for extra legroom on flights

Before you jet off on any more holidays this year, it’s worth knowing this simple hack that could make you feel a lot more comfortable whilst on a flight.

Flying isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, but it definitely helps to know there’s an exciting holiday waiting on the other side – or the comforting return home.

Planes can be a stressful environment, and this is especially true if you feel like you don’t have enough room. Unless you pay for it, or you’re sitting in the emergency exit seats, a roomy seat on a flight is quite rare.

However, if you’re going on holiday abroad soon and are dreading the thought of hours stuck in the cabin with nowhere to put your legs, one simple trick could help to make things a lot more comfortable for you – and it’s so easy.

The consumer experts at Which? recently shared a helpful Instagram post detailing exactly what flyers need to do to secure that bit of extra legroom – which can truly make all the difference.

They said: “Want more legroom on a flight? Just sit on the right.”

How to get more legroom on a plane

“Take Ryanair for example. Almost all of their planes are Boeing 737s. So choosing seats D, E and F in rows 3-15 will give you the most legroom,” they said.

“With easyJet, meanwhile, you should choose seats D, E or F in rows 3-13, if you’re flying on their Airbus A321neo. It will give you an extra inch of legroom compared to sitting in rows 6-17 on the left-hand side of the plane”

It’s worth noting that while it won’t turn economy into a business-class level seat, every centimetre counts – especially if you’re tall, or you’re travelling on a long-haul flight.

The experts added: “All planes are different, so it’s always worth checking before you book.”

Content cannot be displayed without consent

How to check your plane before a flight

If you want to see which seat is going to be best in terms of legroom before you

Just go to Google Flights, type in your destination and dates, and the aircraft model should appear. You can then use the website AeroLopa to find a map of your plane with all of its dimensions, and get those seats booked up fast.

How to stay comfortable on a flight

As well as booking a seat on the right-hand side, there are several other things you can do to remain comfortable while you fly. Frequent flyers have taken to the Travel page on Reddit to share their best tips with others who may be anxious.

One person wrote: “Take the window seat if you plan to sleep. Take the aisle seat if you want to stretch and walk. The exit seats are always nice, but they cost extra. Watch movies, hydrate and try to avoid alcohol.”

Another said: “Don’t be afraid to get up from your seat and walk or stand. I find that noise-cancelling headphones are essential, as is a hoodie, neck hollow or a foot rest.”

And a third noted: “Compression socks and aisle seat. You can stay hydrated and not have to worry about disturbing the others in your row. Also, go for walks. Don’t be annoying to other passengers, but you can got stand for a bit by the bathrooms. 12 hours seems a lot, but you’ll be fine as long as you don’t focus on that.”

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Carry On star Leslie Phillips’ family in High Court battle over £4.4m mansion as third wife refuses to move out

CARRY On actor Leslie Phillips’ family is set for a High Court ding-dong over his will, The Sun can reveal.

The late star‘s estate is suing his wife, Zara, at the High Court, after she refused to move out of their £4.4million marital home.

Leslie Phillips with his third wife Zara after getting married at Mayfair registry office Credit: Louis Hollingsbee – The Sun
Zara, widow of the late Leslie Phillips, in the £4.4m home at Maida Vale, London Credit: Jon Bond
Leslie’s appearances in the Carry On films made him a much-loved household name, seen here in Carry on Constable with Kenneth Connor and Kenneth Williams Credit: Alamy
Leslie often played lothario-style characters to great comic effect, seen here in Some Will, Some Won’t with Barbara Murray in 1970 Credit: Alamy

The long-running spat is said to have strained the relationship between Zara, 68, and Harry Potter actor Leslie’s children, who say they are entitled to the proceeds of the Edwardian mansion’s sale.

Leslie, who died in November 2022 at age 98 after an eight-decade showbiz career, left his family a huge £5.3million fortune and dictated exactly how his belongings should be shared.

He gave his OBE and CBE medals to his grandchildren and a Buddha statue to his third wife, Zara Phillips.

But the actor, known for his “Ding Dong,” “Well, Hello” and “I Say” trademark lines, also stipulated his posh West London house should be sold exactly two years and nine months after his death.

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The Carry On star outside his London home in 1992 Credit: News Group Newspapers Ltd
Leslie Phillips at his home in Maida Vale in 1992 Credit: News Group Newspapers Ltd
Zara says Leslie told her she could stay in the house for the rest of her life Credit: Jon Bond
Leslie Phillips marries Angela Scoular, his second wife, at the Queen’s Chapel of the Savoy in 1982 Credit: Getty

But Zara has repeatedly insisted Leslie, whom she wed in 2013, had promised she could stay there for the rest of her life.

She even claims his will was changed without her knowledge to force the sale of the property and hand more cash to his kids.

At the four-storey Edwardian house, filled with pictures of Leslie, Zara previously told The Sun: “This is my marital home.

“I want to live here for the rest of my life, not to move out.

“Leslie always promised me I could stay here.

The will, seen by The Sun, says the £4.4million house is to be sold two years and nine months after his death, with the proceeds going into a trust.

It means the deadline for the sale passed in August 2025, but Turkish social worker Zara has not moved and is determined to stay put.

The sale trust would have been split between Phillips’ four children from his first marriage, Caroline, Claudia, Andrew, and Roger, as well as Zara.

Phillips’ two sons and two daughters were each left £50,000 in the will, while his 15 grandchildren were each awarded £5,000.

Zara was left £155,000, along with ten of Phillips’ belongings, each worth as much as £1,500, and more than 25 per cent of the shares in the trust fund.

The house spat will now be decided at London’s High Court, though Zara insists she has not been told about the case.

A case filed this week names the Estate of Leslie Samuel Phillips CBE as the claimant, and Zara Phillips as the defendant.

It is listed as a Part Eight claim, meaning the parties do not agree on the facts, and is said to be a case about “provision for family/dependants”.

Speaking outside her home yesterday, Zara told The Sun: “I am very surprised. I had no idea about any of this.

“Leslie’s children have not been in touch with me at all.

“If they want me to come to court, I will do.

“I will come to court and fight it if I must.

“I am planning to stay put. I have no plans to move out – this is my home.

“I will have to speak to my lawyers.”

Zara met Leslie in 1995, but the couple were friends for 18 years before they married.

Leslie was walking near his home when he saw Zara, then a 39-year-old widow, who insisted she did not know the star was world-famous.

At the time, Leslie was married to his second wife, Bond actress Angela Scoular, who took her own life after her cancer returned in 2011.

The executor of Leslie Phillips’ estate, solicitor Martin Terrell, said he could not comment on an ongoing case.

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Gun owners may carry a weapon into stores, Supreme Court rules, rejecting a California law

Licensed gun owners have a right to carry a concealed firearm into stores and other private places unless the owner objects, the Supreme Court ruled Thursday.

The 6-3 decision extends gun rights and strikes down laws in Hawaii, California, New York, New Jersey and Maryland.

Those measures would prohibit carrying guns onto private property that is open to the public unless the owner has expressly authorized them.

“This regime hobbles what the 2nd Amendment protects: the right of Americans to carry arms for self-defense as they go about their daily lives. We hold that the law is unconstitutional,” Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. said for the court.

The new laws, if upheld, would “impose severe restrictions on the daily activities of residents who have satisfied the state’s rigorous requirements for the issuance of a carry permit. When these permit holders leave home in the morning, … they may also be barred from entering many places that people routinely visit in the course of their daily routines, such as gas stations, convenience stores, restaurants, coffee shops, drug stores, grocery stores, ‘big box’ stores, home improvement stores, barber shops or hair salons, dry cleaners, and laundromats.”

The three liberals dissented, saying the law would protect property owners who don’t want guns in their stores.

“There is no constitutional right to enter private property without the owner’s permission, let alone with a firearm,” said Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.

Trump administration lawyers had joined a coalition of Hawaii gun owners in urging the court to strike down these blue state laws in the case of Wolford vs. Lopez.

They said the laws, if enforced, would mean “a person carrying a handgun for self-defense commits a crime by entering a mall, a gas station, a convenience store, a supermarket, a restaurant or a coffee shop.”

This litigation is part of much broader debate over where guns may be permitted or prohibited.

Four years ago, the justices ruled that law-abiding persons had a right to obtain a permit to carry a concealed gun when they left home. They also agreed there are “sensitive places” where guns may be prohibited, such as schools, courts and other government buildings.

In response, lawmakers in California and Hawaii adopted their own lists of “sensitive places.” They imposed restrictions on concealed weapons at parks, beaches, playgrounds, places of worship and public transit as well as bars and restaurants that serve alcohol.

Gun owners sued but the 9th Circuit Court refused to block most of those restrictions in a single 83-page opinion covering Hawaii and California. Both states would prohibit carrying guns onto private property open to the public without the owner’s consent.

The 9th Circuit upheld that measure in principle but said California went too far by requiring the owner to post a prominent sign expressly authorizing guns.

“While today’s ruling in Wolford is disappointing, owners still have every right to decide whether firearms are allowed in their stores and businesses,” said Janet Carter, managing director of Second Amendment Litigation at Everytown Law. “The Supreme Court may have changed the default rule, but it cannot take away a private property owner’s authority over their own land.”

The Firearms Policy Coalition said the court had properly protected gun rights and barred states from carving out their “own regional version of the 2nd Amendment.”

“The historical record does not support forcing peaceable people to obtain advance permission before carrying for self-defense in places held open to them,” the group said.

Last week, the court upheld gun rights in a Texas case and said the government may not make it a crime for an “unlawful user” of a drug such as marijuana to own a gun.

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Boeing’s New Larger Ghost Bat Can Carry AIM-120 AMRAAMs Internally

Boeing has provided details of the latest iteration of its MQ-28 Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft (CCA). Already, the Ghost Bat was the most mature known CCA, but the enhanced version of the drone, the Block 3, has various new features. These include a larger wing and a pair of internal weapons bays, which means it can carry munitions without diminishing its low-observable characteristics.

The MQ-28 Block 3 was revealed today at the ILA Berlin airshow, taking place this week in the German capital. The unveiling was conducted by officials from both Boeing Australia and Germany’s Rheinmetall. The German firm is partnered with Boeing to offer the drone to the German military, as well as to tap into the potentially very lucrative European CCA market.

“This is the aircraft that we are offering to Germany,” MQ-28 Global Program Director, Glen Ferguson, said at the rollout. “This is the third iteration of design now, and we are on point to build out first [Block 3] aircraft next year.”

The previous Block 1 and Block 2 variants have completed more than 150 test sorties in Australia and the United States.

Australia has already acquired eight Block 1 MQ-28s, which are configured as pre-production prototypes.

The first nine Block 2 drones, now in production, are seen as a pathway to an operational capability, which is fully realized in the Block 3.

An MQ-28A Ghost Bat taxis prior to flight at Woomera, South Australia, in September 2025. Australian Department of Defense

The Block 3 aircraft features a wing that is 25 percent larger, combined with a thrust increase from 10,000 pounds to 12,000 pounds. It’s not immediately clear how that thrust increase will be achieved, but coupled with greater wing area, it will confer an increased payload capability. This translates into an additional 2,000 pounds of fuel, stores, and mission payloads.

“That additional capacity gives operators freedom to balance payload and endurance to configure for the mission at hand, whether that means carrying extra fuel for longer-range operations, increasing weapons carriage, or any combination of both,” Ferguson said.

The latest iteration of the drone also adds beyond-line-of-sight (BLOS) control. Introduction of BLOS communication links means the MQ-28 can be operated at unlimited standoff distances, whether from a ground station, a naval vessel, or a crewed aircraft. With its range of over 2,000 nautical miles, adding BLOS to the drone also ensures that it can conduct independent operations when not controlled by a crewed aircraft, which was always envisioned as a potential role for Ghost Bat. Having a SATCOM option also opens up better resiliency for control in electronic warfare combat environments.

“Inclusion of features such as BLOS capability is a direct result of our learnings to date along with feedback from air forces as they understand more about the role and integration of CCAs into joint force operations,” Ferguson explained.

As for the critical internal weapons bays, these are added within each side of the slab-side fuselage, shown in a video released by Boeing.

A screencap from a Boeing video showing a CG version of the Block 3 drone with one weapons bay open, to reveal SDBs. Boeing screencap

Each bay can carry a single AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) or two Small Diameter Bomb (SDB) precision-guided munitions. These can comprise either the GBU-39/B SDB I or the GBU-53 SDB II, also known as StormBreaker. The Ghost Bat is the first CCA we have seen capable of carrying AIM-120s internally, a significant development in itself. The option for internal stores carriage is also a huge deal at this point, with Boeing having recently validated its radar cross-section (RCS), proving that the CCA is harder to detect and better able to operate in contested environments.

Elevation, or pitch, is one angle engineers analyze to validate MQ-28’s radar detectability inside Boeing’s test chamber. Other positions used in radar cross-section testing include azimuth (measure from nose to tail) and roll (rotation around the aircraft). Above left: Views of MQ-28 on the flight line. Boeing

“The combination of a highly capable platform, stealth features and advanced autonomy provides unprecedented ability for air forces to extend their mission effectiveness and operational flexibility,” said Brad Thompson, director for Phantom Works Australia, after the completion of the RCS trials.

The drone also has provision for three external weapons stations. At least one of these has already been tested, during an end-to-end engagement in which a target drone was brought down by an AMRAAM. The air-to-air role is notably relevant since the drone is also envisaged as a force-protection asset, to defend airborne early warning aircraft and tankers, etc, as well as working with fighter aircraft. Combined with more thrust and larger wings, the external pylons would appear to open up the possibility of flying with as many as five AMRAAMs, and at least four, or with a mixed load of air-to-air and air-to-ground weapons.

An AIM-120 is launched from an MQ-28A Ghost Bat during Trial Kareela at RAAF Base Woomera, South Australia. Australian Department of Defense

For Block 3, Boeing is also known to be working on three or four alternative sensor payloads. Integration of these would be facilitated by the fact that the entire nose can be swapped out to accommodate different payloads.

A quartet of MQ-28s, the two in the middle having IRST sensors on top of their noses. Boeing

Bringing the MQ-28 Block 3 from Australia to Berlin reflects the relationship between Boeing Australia and Rheinmetall and the fact that the German Air Force — the Luftwaffe — is being pitched to for its CCA requirement.

“At the moment, we are still in negotiations with the German government, but if they want to have the plane by 2029, my expectation is that by at least next year, we have to go into the final stage of negotiating the contract,” Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger told Breaking Defense.

In expectation of a German CCA requirement, the ILA Berlin airshow featured a heavy presence of combat drones.

Also making its public debut was a full-scale model of the Airbus U760 Ravenstorm, a combat drone designed to operate alongside fighter aircraft in air-to-air combat, strike missions, and electronic warfare roles. The new uncrewed aircraft is part of a revamped drone portfolio from the company, and you can read more about it here.

A rendering of the U760 Ravenstorm. Airbus

As well as Ravenstorm, Airbus is also offering a Europeanized version of the stealthy XQ-58A Valkyrie, which is apparently being pitched as a lower-cost aircraft and one that offers the option of runway-independent operations.

From the United States, General Atomics Aeronautical Systems presented a full-size model of a drone from its Gambit family, with the company also confirming that it has been in talks with Germany regarding its CCA requirements.

Meanwhile, German firm Helsing revealed a new version of its CA-1 Europa drone — which looks remarkably similar to Ghost Bat. The CA-1EA (for Electronic Attack) follows the CA-1KA (Kinetic Attack) and reflects the high priority Germany attaches to its need for a CCA to accompany its forthcoming Eurofighter EK electronic warfare jets, as well as other combat aircraft.

Helsing says the CA-1KA is planned to begin flight testing early next year. To get around issues of testing this class of drone in European airspace, the first flying prototype will feature a cockpit for a safety pilot.

Even if the MQ-28 Ghost Bat loses out in Germany, in the face of stiff competition, the Block 3 version already has the support of Australia, which also wants to upgrade earlier aircraft to the same standard.

“These features, developed in partnership with the Royal Australian Air Force, will be progressively released to the fleet through a spiral upgrade program, and are available to interested allied countries,” Ferguson said.

The Boeing official added that the MQ-28 will be in service with the Royal Australian Air Force in 2028, and he is “fairly certain that it will be the first operational CCA anywhere in the world.”

When Boeing and Rheinmetall announced their strategic partnership back in March of this year, they said that the MQ-28 could be provided to the German Armed Forces by 2029.

It should also be noted that Boeing is now conducting test flights of the Ghost Bat from the U.S. Navy’s base in Point Mugu, California. The company says its main goals in doing this are to demonstrate the maturity of the design and promote export sales, but the trials could well also point to potential U.S. military interest.

A lot could change before then, and it is unclear to what degree Germany’s CCA requirements have been defined, while any procurement will also have to navigate decision-makers in the government.

In the meantime, the MQ-28 Ghost Bat continues to evolve. The unveiling of the Block 3 version today underscores how rapidly the collaborative combat aircraft market is maturing.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com



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Hamas says won’t surrender arms but only police will carry weapons in Gaza | Gaza News

Hamas says it will not hand over its weapons right now, resisting ongoing disarmament demands and stating that the ultimate fate of its military arsenal will be decided following comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions.

Hossam Badran, a member of the Hamas Political Bureau, spoke exclusively to Al Jazeera about the group's vision for a long-term Hudna in Gaza. [Mohammad Mansour/Al Jazeera]
Husam Badran, a member of the Hamas political bureau, spoke exclusively to Al Jazeera about the group’s vision for a long-term ceasefire in Gaza [Mohammad Mansour/Al Jazeera]

In an exclusive interview with Al Jazeera, Husam Badran, a member of the Hamas political bureau, offered an inside look into the group’s proposed solutions to the stalled negotiations, introducing the concept of a long-term hudna (truce).

“When this Palestinian committee [the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG)] comes to take over the Gaza Strip, there will be no visible weapons in the streets and alleys of Gaza except the official weapons belonging to this committee, which is the official Palestinian police, ” Badran told Al Jazeera. “There will be no armed manifestations like the ones we were accustomed to in the Gaza Strip.”

But he clarified that this did not mean a formal surrender of arms.

“We are not talking about handing them over; we are talking about, at least, weapons not being visible except for the official weapons of the Palestinian police,” he said. “The details of this matter will be discussed within a national framework.”

The Hamas stance comes as an informed source told Al Jazeera that the group is preparing to send its delegation to Cairo for renewed talks, which are set to begin this weekend. Hamas had briefly delayed its participation to demand a halt to ongoing Israeli assassinations—such as the recent killings of military commanders Izz al-Din al-Haddad and Mohammed Odeh—to ensure a more favourable negotiating environment.

The disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza remain the biggest sticking points in the United States-brokered October 2025 ceasefire plan.

Factional consensus in Cairo

The upcoming Cairo meetings will gather eight key Palestinian factions to form a unified national stance. Badran confirmed the attendance of representatives from Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP), the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP), the PFLP-GC, the National Initiative, the Popular Resistance Committees (PRC), and the Democratic Reform Current affiliated with the Fatah movement.

These talks aim to salvage the ceasefire originally proposed by United States President Donald Trump. However, Badran noted that Israel has failed to implement even 30 percent of its phase one obligations, making any transition to subsequent phases impossible.

“We are talking about humanitarian aid … the Rafah crossing mechanism, the infrastructure, and the assassinations,” Badran explained. “The idea was a comprehensive ceasefire, but around 1,000 people have been killed. Saying Israel implemented even 30 percent is an overstatement.”

Only 150 to 250 aid trucks are entering the Gaza Strip daily instead of the agreed-upon 600, while the critical infrastructure for electricity, hospitals and fuel remains completely decimated.

The ‘disarmament’ deadlock

While Palestinian factions demand the fulfilment of these phase one survival metrics, Israeli officials and Nickolay Mladenov, the high representative for Gaza on Trump’s “Board of Peace”, are conditioning the transition to phase two on the disarmament of armed groups.

To break the deadlock, Mladenov recently presented a 15-point “roadmap” built by the ceasefire guarantors. In a May 2026 briefing to the United Nations Security Council, Mladenov defended the plan, emphasising that its architecture rests on a strict principle of reciprocity and verification. Addressing Palestinian concerns, Mladenov clarified that the roadmap explicitly dictates that “no Palestinian armed group will be required to transfer its weapons to Israel”. Instead, the decommissioning of weapons would be gradual, sequenced, and Palestinian-led, with all arms transferred to the NCAG.

Mladenov outlined that this disarmament process is tied directly to an Israeli military pullback. The plan commits Israel to a phased withdrawal of its forces to Gaza’s perimeter on an agreed timetable, conditional upon verified progress on decommissioning and the deployment of an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to act as a buffer.

Mladenov warned the UNSC of the severe consequences of rejecting the roadmap. With 85 percent of Gaza’s buildings damaged or destroyed, he stressed that “reconstruction financing will not follow where weapons have not been laid down”. Without an agreement, he cautioned, Gaza will remain divided, with Hamas holding administrative control over less than half the territory.

‘Negotiation time’ and Israeli expansion

However, Palestinians view this 15-point framework as a stalling tactic designed to extract concessions while Israel deepens its occupation. Palestinian political analyst Wissam Afifa told Al Jazeera that Israel is exploiting “negotiation time” to exhaust the population through continuous escalation.

“They shifted from Trump’s 20 points to a new square, the 15-point square, which revolves entirely around one single clause: disarmament,” Afifa explained. He noted that the Palestinian resistance has been cornered and asked to make major concessions without real guarantees, while the Israeli government uses the talks to advance its territorial goals.

According to Afifa, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is weaponising the negotiations for domestic electoral gains, expanding Israel’s control from 60 percent of Gaza to 70 percent or more. This expansion is happening while oversight mechanisms, such as the Civil-Military Coordination Center (CMCC), have completely failed and paralysed the monitoring process.

“We are facing a scenario where the occupation has reshaped the ceasefire on its own terms,” Afifa said, adding that Mladenov has in effect adopted the Israeli and American vision by demanding disarmament without offering a clear political horizon for “the day after”.

The National Committee hurdle

This ongoing expansion complicates the transition of power. Amid accusations that Hamas is clinging to power, the group’s spokesperson, Hazem Qassem, reiterated that Hamas is fully prepared to hand over all governance and security responsibilities to the Cairo-based National Committee. Badran confirmed that Hamas has prepared all necessary administrative and security files for the transfer.

However, the NCAG itself faces massive operational barriers and has become, as Afifa described, a “hostage” to Israeli pressure.

A member of the committee, speaking to Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity, firmly denied reports that the body would enter Gaza soon, outlining strict conditions for assuming power. The committee categorically refuses to operate behind the Israeli-controlled “Yellow Line” or to cooperate with Israeli-backed armed militias currently operating in the Strip, the source said.

Furthermore, the source stressed that the committee will not enter Gaza until the International Stabilization Force is deployed in the buffer zones separating Israeli forces from Palestinian areas.

While the political deadlock continues, the human toll mounts. Mladenov acknowledged in his UN briefing that ceasefire violations continue to kill civilians and obstruct humanitarian access.

Since the ceasefire took effect, ongoing Israeli military actions have killed 933 Palestinians and injured 2,868, raising the total death toll since October 2023 to 72,942, with 172,967 people injured.

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