Business and Economy

Indian Prime Minister Modi hailed the agreement on critical minerals and rare earths as a ‘major step towards building resilient supply chains’. 

Brazil and India have signed an agreement to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths, as the Indian government seeks new suppliers to curb its dependence on China.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Saturday and discussed boosting trade and investment opportunities.

Modi said in a statement that the agreement on critical minerals and rare earths was a “major step towards building resilient supply chains”.

China dominates the mining and processing of the world’s rare-earth and critical minerals, and has increased its grip on exports in recent months as the United States attempts to break its hold on the growing industry.

Still, for Brazil, which follows China as the world’s second-largest holder of critical minerals, its resources are used across a range of fields, including electric vehicles, solar panels, smartphones, jet engines, and guided missiles.

In a statement, Lula said, “increasing investments and cooperation in matters of renewable energies and critical minerals is at the core of the pioneering agreement that we have signed today.”

While few details have emerged about the mineral deal so far, demand for iron ore, a material for which Brazil is the second-largest producer and exporter after Australia, in India has grown amid rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth.

Rishabh Jain, an expert with the New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, told the AFP news agency that India’s growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals follows recent supply chain engagements with the US, France and the European Union.

“Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade”, Jain told AFP.

Trade agreements

India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced that, along with the critical minerals and rare earths deal, nine other agreements were signed, including a memorandum of understanding that ranged from digital cooperation to health.

Moreover, Modi called Brazil India’s “largest trading partner in Latin America”.

“We are committed to taking our bilateral trade beyond $20bn in the coming five years,” he said.

“Our trade is not just a figure, but a reflection of trust,” Modi said, adding that “When India and Brazil work together, the voice of [the] Global South becomes stronger and more confident.”

India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar also said he was confident that Lula’s talks with Modi “will impart a new momentum to our ties”.

According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) in 2024, Indian exports to Brazil reached $7.23bn, with refined petroleum being the main export. On the other hand, Brazilian exports to India reached $5.38bn, with raw sugar being the main export.

The United States Supreme Court ruling against the administration of US President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariffs has left a question unanswered on what is the refund process for the funds collected over the past several months through the tariffs that had been imposed on most US trading partners .

In a 6–3 decision issued on Friday, Chief Justice John Roberts upheld a lower court ruling that found the president’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded his authority.

The high court did not specify how the federal government would refund the estimated $175bn collected under the tariffs. In his dissent, Justice Brett Kavanaugh warned that issuing refunds would present practical challenges and said it would be “a mess”.

The case will now return to the Court of International Trade to oversee the refund process.

More than 1,000 lawsuits have already been filed by importers in the trade court seeking refunds, and a wave of new cases is expected. Legal experts say the administration will likely require importers to apply for refunds individually. That process could disproportionately burden smaller businesses affected by the tariffs.

“The government is probably not going to voluntarily pay back the money it unlawfully took. Rather, the government is going to make everyone request a refund through different procedures by filing formal protests. They’re going to delay things procedurally as long as they can. Hiring lawyers and going through these procedures costs money and time,” Greg Shaffer, a law professor at Georgetown University, told Al Jazeera.

“I imagine the largest companies, who have been prepared for this eventuality, will eventually get their money back. But smaller importers, it’s a cost-benefit analysis where they might shrug their shoulders and say it’s not worth going through the hassle to get the unlawfully imposed taxes paid back to them.”

Trump’s path forward

Despite Friday’s ruling, other sweeping levies remain in place. Trump had invoked Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act to impose sector-specific tariffs on steel and aluminium, cars, copper, lumber, and other products, such as kitchen cabinets, worldwide.

On Friday, Trump said he would impose a 10 percent global tariff for 150 days to replace some of his emergency duties that were struck down. The order would be made under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the duties would be over and above tariffs that are currently in place, Trump said.

The statute allows the president to impose duties of up to 15 percent for up to 150 days on any and all countries related to “large and serious” balance of payments issues. It does not require investigations or impose other procedural limits.

The president also has other legal avenues available to continue taxing imports aggressively.

“Our trading partners were well aware of the risks the President faced in using IEEPA as the basis for reciprocal and other tariffs. Nevertheless, they chose to conclude deals with Washington, convinced by Washington that other statutes would be utilised to keep the tariffs in place,” Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, told Al Jazeera in a statement.

“With respect to China, USTR [United States trade representative] still has an active Section 301 investigation on China’s compliance with the Phase One agreement, which could be a major feature of the back-up plan for Beijing.”

The president is expected to travel to Beijing next month to meet his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, to discuss trade.

“The two main options include Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, the traditional mechanism for imposing tariffs in response to unfair trade practices by other countries. It requires an investigation and a report, but ultimately gives the president considerable discretion to impose tariffs. It has been used in the past and will likely be the most frequently used measure going forward,” Shaffer, the law professor, said.

He noted, however, that the administration’s tariff options could not be applied retroactively, meaning any new tariffs would apply only to future imports rather than covering duties already paid.

Raj Bhala, professor of law at The University of Kansas School of Law, argues there are remedies at the president’s disposal in addition to Section 122. Bhala said that Trump could use Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 (also known as the Smoot-Hawley Act). That allows the president to impose a 50 percent tariff to challenge discriminatory trade practices from other countries.

“Each option involves procedural hurdles,” Bhala said.

Congressional pressure

Roberts wrote that the president must “point to clear congressional authorization” to impose tariffs. The ruling has increased pressure on both Trump’s allies and critics in Congress to clarify the scope of executive trade authority.

“What a fantastic ruling for a feckless branch of government. While its current tendency is to abdicate, the court has told Congress to do its job,” a former official in the White House Office of Management and Budget told Al Jazeera in response to the decision.

“Congress must either act with specific legislation, or declare war, which would grant the President the emergency powers to levy tariffs.”

“Congress and the Administration will determine the best path forward in the coming weeks,” House Speaker Mike Johnson said in a post on the social media platform X.

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, by contrast, welcomed the ruling, saying it will “finally give families and small businesses the relief they deserve” and that Trump should end “this reckless trade war for good.”

But how that money will get paid back, and if it was already spent, will require Congress to step in.

“If it has been spent, the money will have to be reallocated by Congress. Congress will have to determine how much is owed to importers, pass a law to fund it, and create a mechanism for repayment. There’s also the question of who is entitled to it. Is it only the importer, or does it extend to the end consumer? Where does the line stop?” Babak Hafezi, professor of international business at American University, told Al Jazeera.

“This is not something that will be fixed in 24 hours. It will most likely take years, possibly even a decade, to resolve all the issues this less-than-a-year-old law has imposed on Americans.”

“The United States, after all, is not at war with every nation in the world.” The US Supreme Court has struck down Donald Trump’s use of a national emergency declaration to impose sweeping global tariffs. Al Jazeera’s Mike Hanna explains the court’s reasoning.

Road accidents, often linked to speeding, claim thousands of lives each year in Egypt.

A collision between a truck and a passenger pick-up in Egypt’s northeastern Port Said province has left 18 people dead, mostly fishermen, and three others injured, according to reports.

The crash at approximately 12:30pm local time (10:30 GMT) on Thursday occurred on the 30 June Axis highway, to the south of Port Said, according to Egypt’s state-run Al-Ahram newspaper.

Survivors of the collision are being treated in hospital, and public prosecutors have launched an investigation into the circumstances of the accident, according to Al-Ahram.

Images from the scene of the accident posted online showed the aftermath of the crash, with a pick-up truck crushed between two large cargo trucks and debris scattered across the road, The Associated Press (AP) news agency reports.

AP said the pick-up truck was transporting fishermen to work at fish farms in the coastal Port Said area.

Attending the inaugural meeting of United States President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace in Washington, DC, on Thursday, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly sent his condolences to the victims of the collision and ordered that financial assistance be provided to relatives of the deceased and injured.

Madbouly said in a statement posted on Facebook that he was following up on the incident through reports from the governor of Port Said province.

Deadly road accidents are common on Egypt’s roads and claim thousands of lives each year in crashes often involving microbuses and heavy trucks. Speeding, poor road conditions, and lax enforcement of traffic laws have been cited as contributing factors in collisions.

In June last year, a truck collided with a minibus, killing 19 people, most of them teenage girls, according to local officials.

Kim focuses on improving economic activity in opening speech at Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea.

North Korea has kicked off a rare party congress of the ruling Workers’ Party, held once every five years, that will see the leadership in Pyongyang set major policy goals in defence, diplomacy and the economy, state media reports.

The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) said on Friday that the Ninth Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) was under way, marking the start of the country’s most consequential political event since 2021.

“The Ninth Congress of the WPK opened with splendour in Pyongyang, the capital city of the revolution,” KCNA said, reporting that the high-level meeting started on Thursday and observers say it is expected to run for several days.

South Korea’s official Yonhap News Agency said the gathering will be closely followed for any signs regarding North Korea’s development of nuclear weapons or overtures towards the administrations in Seoul and the United States, which the North considers its chief foes.

Yonhap reports that North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, made no mention of relations with either South Korea or the US in his opening speech to the congress on Thursday and, instead, focused on boosting the country’s economy.

“Ahead of our party are heavy and urgent tasks of advancing economic development and improving people’s livelihoods, and transforming all aspects of social life in the country as quickly as possible,” Kim said, according to KCNA.

While the true state of North Korea’s often struggling economy is hard to gauge, The Associated Press news agency reports that outside experts suggest the country has seen a gradual recovery in economic activity, helped by a post-COVID boost in trade with China and the export of weapons to help Russia in its war against Ukraine.

Several thousand North Korean troops have fought on Moscow’s side against Ukraine, and Pyongyang is believed to have exported large amounts of ammunition to help the Russian invasion of its neighbour.

North Korea’s ‘biggest enemy’

South Korea’s spy agency said last week it was monitoring the congress for any sign that Kim will officially designate his teenage daughter, Kim Ju Ae, as his potential successor, formalising her position as heir apparent in a fourth-generation succession of the Kim family as North Korea’s leaders.

At the previous party congress five years ago, Kim declared that the US was his nation’s “biggest enemy”, the AFP news agency reports, and there is deep interest in whether the North Korean leader will soften his rhetoric – or double down – at this year’s congress, particularly amid the US presidency of Donald Trump.

Trump – who met Kim in 2019 when he briefly stepped foot into North Korea to shake Kim’s hand and pose for photos – said during a tour of Asia late last year that he was “100 percent” open to meeting Kim again.

So far, Kim has demurred on Trump’s overtures to meet again.

Observers of North Korean politics are reported to be scouring satellite imagery for any signs of the vast military parades that have accompanied previous congress meetings in Pyongyang.

Such parades will be closely watched for signs of a shift in North Korea’s weapons capabilities, as the country has used previous processions to show off its newest and most advanced weapons.

Kim held a ceremony on Thursday to unveil the deployment of 50 new launch vehicles for nuclear-capable short-range missiles as the congress kicked off.

According to Yonhap, the congress brings together some 5,000 party representatives from across the country, including 200 senior officials from the WPK’s headquarters. More than 4,700 officials from regional and industrial sectors are also in attendance.

The second straight monthly deterioration in the United States’ trade deficit occurred as US firms boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods.

The United States trade deficit has widened sharply in December amid a surge in imports, and the goods shortfall in 2025 was the highest on record despite US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign-manufactured merchandise.

The second straight monthly deterioration in the trade deficit reported by the US Commerce Department on Thursday suggested that trade made little or no contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter.

Exports rose 6 percent last year, and imports rose nearly 5 percent.

The US deficit in the trade of goods widened 2 percent to a record $1.24 trillion last year as American companies boosted imports of computer chips and other tech goods from Taiwan to support massive investments in artificial intelligence.

Amid continuing tensions with Beijing, the deficit in the goods trade with China plunged nearly 32 percent to $202bn in 2025 on a sharp drop in both exports to and imports from the world’s second-biggest economy. But trade was diverted away from China. The goods gap with Taiwan doubled to $147bn and shot up 44 percent, to $178bn, with Vietnam.

Trump last year unleashed a barrage of tariffs against trading partners with the aim, among other things, of addressing trade imbalances and protecting US industries. But the punitive duties have not yielded a manufacturing renaissance, with factory employment declining by 83,000 jobs from January 2025 through January 2026.

“There just isn’t any evidence out there in the economic research literature to suggest that tariffs have materially impacted trade deficits historically when countries have implemented them,” said Chad Bown, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

The trade gap ballooned by 32.6 percent to a five-month high of $70.3bn, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau said. Economists polled by Reuters forecast the trade deficit would contract to $55.5bn.

The report was delayed because of last year’s government shutdown.

Imports increased 3.6 percent to $357.6bn in December. Goods imports surged 3.8 percent to $280.2bn, boosted by a $7bn increase in industrial supplies and materials, mostly non-monetary gold, copper and crude oil. Capital goods imports increased by $5.6bn, lifted by computer accessories and telecommunications equipment. That rise is likely related to the construction of data centres to support artificial intelligence.

But consumer goods imports fell, pulled down by pharmaceutical preparations. There have been large swings in imports of pharmaceutical preparations because of tariffs.

“But strong imports should also imply strength in details like inventories or business investment,” said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup. “Surging computer imports in particular should correspond with stronger business equipment investment and could remain strong due to AI-related demand.”

Exports fell 1.7 percent to $287.3bn in December. But capital goods exports increased, boosted by semiconductors. There were increases in exports of consumer goods, including pharmaceutical preparations.

Microsoft founder Bill Gates has cancelled his keynote speech at India’s flagship AI summit just hours before he was due to take the stage on Thursday.

Gates, who has faced renewed scrutiny over his past ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, withdrew to “ensure the focus remains on the AI Summit’s key priorities”, the Gates Foundation said in a statement.

The five-day India AI Impact Summit 2026 was meant to showcase India’s ambitions in the booming sector, with the country expecting to attract more than $200bn in investment over the next two years.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi had billed the summit as an opportunity for India to shape the future of AI, drawing high-profile attendees, including French President Emmanuel Macron and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

Instead, it has been dogged by controversy, from Gates’s abrupt exit to an incident in which an Indian university tried to pass off a Chinese-made robotic dog as its own innovation.

So, what exactly went wrong at India’s flagship AI gathering and why has it drawn such intense scrutiny?

Why Gates’s appearance became an issue

Bill Gates was due to deliver a short but high-profile speech highlighting the opportunities and risks posed by artificial intelligence.

However, in recent weeks, several opposition figures and commentators in Indian media weighed in after emails featuring his name were released in the Epstein files in late January, questioning whether his presence was appropriate.

Despite the discussion, all appeared to be proceeding as planned earlier in the week. On Tuesday, the Gates Foundation’s India office posted on X that Gates would attend the summit and “deliver his keynote as scheduled”.

Then, on Thursday, hours before the scheduled speech, it released a statement saying that “After careful consideration, and to ensure the focus remains on the AI Summit’s key priorities, Mr Gates will not be delivering his keynote address.”

It added that Ankur Vora, president of the Gates Foundation’s Africa and India offices, would deliver the speech instead.

What are the alleged links between Epstein and Gates?

Bill Gates was named in documents related to Epstein released in January by the US Department of Justice.

In a draft email included among the documents, Epstein alleged Gates had engaged in extramarital affairs and sought his help in procuring drugs “to deal with consequences of sex with Russian girls”.

It was unclear whether Epstein actually sent the email, and Gates denies any wrongdoing.

The Gates Foundation, in a statement to The New York Times, called the allegations “absolutely absurd and completely false”.

What has India’s government said?

Very little.

Despite criticism and calls from opposition figures to explain the invitation to Gates, the Indian government has not directly addressed the controversy that culminated in Gates’s withdrawal.

While unnamed government sources told local media he would not attend the summit, officials stopped short of explaining why.

Asked about Gates’s participation, Information Technology Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw declined to give a clear answer to reporters, while Modi made no reference to the issue in his public remarks.

Why are the Epstein files a sensitive subject for India?

The controversy surrounding Gates’s planned participation comes close on the heels of a series of disclosures in the Epstein files that have forced the Modi government on the backfoot.

In one email to an unidentified individual he referred to only as “Jabor Y”, Epstein referred to Modi’s historic visit – the first by an Indian prime minister – to Israel in July 2017.

Epstein wrote: “The Indian Prime minister modi took advice. and danced and sang in israel for the benefit of the US president. they had met a few weeks ago.. IT WORKED. !”

Modi’s visit to Israel – and his subsequent embrace of the Benjamin Netanyahu government, with military, intelligence and other ties strengthened over the past decade – had already drawn criticism from the opposition Congress party and others, who have accused him of reversing decades of Indian support for the Palestinian cause. India was the first non-Arab nation to recognise the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1974, and did not establish full diplomatic relations with Israel until 1992.

But the Epstein email turbocharged the opposition criticism of Modi’s Israel policy – with questions now also asked about whether it was influenced by Washington.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs dismissed the Epstein email in an unusually sharply worded statement.

“Beyond the fact of the prime minister’s official visit to Israel in July 2017, the rest of the allusions in the email are little more than trashy ruminations by a convicted criminal, which deserve to be dismissed with the utmost contempt,” spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said.

But the Epstein cloud continues to hover over India.

The files also show that India’s current oil minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, exchanged dozens of emails with Epstein after he joined Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party in 2014.

In many of them, Puti appears to be taking Epstein’s help in getting US investors, such as LinkedIn’s Reid Hoffman, to visit India. In others, he appears to suggest that he had a fairly comfortable personal relationship with Epstein.

“Please let me know when you are back from your exotic island,” Puri wrote in December 2014, for instance, asking to set up a meeting in which Puri could give Epstein some books to “excite an interest in India”.

Puri, in a new conference, has claimed that he only met Epstein “three or four times”, but the Congress party has argued that the emails suggest a much closer relationship.

Gates’s work in India

The Gates Foundation has long been a key partner in India’s public health and development sectors, backing major vaccination drives, disease prevention campaigns and sanitation programmes.

At the same time, he has had vocal critics, including environmental activist Vandana Shiva, who has argued that Gates’s brand of “philanthro-imperialism” uses wealth to control global food systems.

Gates also faced heavy criticism after a 2024 podcast in which he said India was “a kind of laboratory to try things … that then, when you prove them out in India, you can take to other places” when discussing development programmes and the foundation’s work there.

‘Orion’ the robodog and other controversies

Beyond the fallout over Bill Gates’s cancelled keynote, the AI Impact Summit has faced several controversies.

One incident involved a robotic dog named “Orion”, which Galgotias University, based in the New Delhi suburban town of Greater Noida, presented as its own innovation.

Online users quickly identified the machine as a commercially available Chinese-made model, prompting organisers to ask the institution to vacate its stall.

The event also drew criticism on its opening day after facing logistical issues, including long queues and confusion over entry procedures, according to local media.

On Wednesday, large crowds were seen walking for miles after police cordoned off roads for VIP access.

Dhananjay Yadav, the CEO of a company exhibiting high-tech wearables, made headlines after he reported on social media that devices had been stolen from the company’s stand.

The Times of India later reported that two maintenance workers at the event had been arrested for allegedly stealing the wearables.

United States President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on European goods, made a bid to take over Greenland and demanded Europe foot the bill for its own defence. European leaders now fear the era of US-led security protections may be over. They’re accelerating efforts to reduce their military and economic dependence on the US.

At the Munich Security Conference, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted his nation is not walking away from its allies. But few in the room were convinced. Instead, leader after leader took to the podium with the same message: Europe must stand on its own.

Illegal mining is a widespread issue in Nigeria, where operations lack both government oversight and safety protocols.

At least 37 miners have died from carbon monoxide poisoning at a mining site in central Nigeria, the Reuters news agency reports.

The deadly incident, which took place on Wednesday morning in the Kampani community in the Wase area of Plateau State, also resulted in the hospitalisation of 25 people, Reuters said, citing a police source and a security report the news agency obtained.

Government officials identified the location as a dormant lead mine where accumulated minerals had released lethal fumes.

The Plateau State government said many ⁠were feared dead without providing an exact figure, ⁠adding that others were receiving treatment in nearby hospitals.

Security forces have cordoned off the site to prevent further access.

Nigeria’s Minister of Solid Minerals Dele Alake said that the accident occurred when local villagers, unaware of the toxic nature of the emissions, reportedly entered the tunnel to extract minerals and inhaled the gas.

Illegal mining remains a widespread concern in Nigeria, where extractive operations frequently lack both government oversight and basic safety protocols.

The federal government in Nigeria has ordered an immediate suspension of all mining activities in areas near the accident site to allow for a comprehensive investigation, Reuters said.

Plateau State is a historical mining region, with its capital, Jos, known as the Tin City, though mining activities have slowed in recent years.

Several similar accidents have killed miners in Nigeria previously, including at least 18 people killed last year in Zamfara State in the northwest of the country after a boulder crashed onto an illegal mine during heavy rains.

The pursuit of mineral wealth across the African continent continues to be shadowed by a recurring cycle of mining disasters, as recent tragedies highlight the persistent dangers of both legal and irregulated operations.

An estimated 200 people were killed in a collapse at the Rubaya coltan mine in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo last month.

The mine, located some 60km (37 miles) northwest of Goma city, the provincial capital of North Kivu province, collapsed after a landslide.

Rubaya produces about 15 percent of the world’s coltan, which is processed into tantalum, a heat-resistant metal that is in high demand by makers of mobile phones, computers, aerospace components and gas turbines.

When India’s top court banned a controversial scheme in February 2024 that allowed individuals and corporates to make anonymous donations to political parties through opaque electoral bonds, many transparency activists hailed the judgement as a win for democracy.

Between 2018, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government introduced the electoral bonds, and when they were scrapped in 2024, secret donors funnelled nearly $2bn to parties.

More than half of that went to Modi’s Hindu majoritarian Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has held India’s central government since 2014, and also governs at least 20 Indian states and federally controlled territories, either directly or in coalition with allies.

In striking down the scheme, the Supreme Court said that “political contributions give a seat at the table to the contributor” and that “this access also translates into influence over policymaking”.

But two years later, data shows that big business continues to pump in millions of dollars in funding to political parties, with the BJP retaining its position as the biggest beneficiary, frequently raising serious concerns over a quid pro quo with donors.

The donors have returned to an older funding mechanism: electoral trusts. Introduced in 2013 by the Manmohan Singh government led by the Congress party that preceded Modi, the trusts, unlike bonds, require the donors to disclose their identities and the amount of money being given.

But that relative transparency is not dissuading companies from major mega-donations to parties directly positioned to benefit them through policies and contracts, an analysis of recent political funding by Al Jazeera reveals.

‘Money determines access’

In 2024-25, nine electoral trusts donated a total of $459.2m to political parties, with the BJP receiving $378.6 million — 83 percent of it. The main opposition Congress party got about $36m (8 percent), while other parties received the remaining amount.

This data is sourced from disclosures made during the first full year after the Supreme Court ban on bonds.

Two major corporations stood out, due to their significant financial scale and policy influence:  The Tata Group, founded in 1868 by Jamsetji Nusserwanji Tata, is a global conglomerate with more than 30 companies spanning steel, IT, automobiles, aviation, and more. Its aggregate revenue for FY 2024-25  exceeded $180bn. The Murugappa Group, founded in 1900 by A M Murugappa Chettiar as a money-lending business in Burma (now Myanmar), is a prominent Indian conglomerate with 29 businesses in engineering, agriculture, financial services and beyond. Its turnover stood at $8.53bn in 2024-25.

Documents submitted to the Election Commission of India in 2024-2025 show that the Progressive Electoral Trust, backed by 15 companies belonging to the Tata Group conglomerate, distributed approximately $110.2m to 10 political parties in the run-up to the 2024 general election.

The BJP received about $91.3m – again roughly 83 percent of the total fund – while the Congress got $9.31m, with smaller sums going to several regional parties. Tata made its contribution on April 2, 2024, while Murugappa did so on March 26, 2024.

India’s general elections began on April 19 and concluded on June 1, 2024.

The timing and scale of these donations are significant, say experts. Tata’s donations came within weeks of the government approving two semiconductor projects worth more than $15.2bn announced by the Tata Group in Gujarat and Assam – both BJP-ruled states.

The Modi government also provided additional support of about $5.3bn under India’s plans to promote semiconductor development.

Meanwhile, in February 2024, the Indian government approved a semiconductor assembly and testing facility proposed by CG Power and Industrial Solutions Ltd, a Murugappa Group company. The project, to be set up in Sanand, Gujarat, with an investment of approximately $870m, also received central and state government incentives.

In the same financial year, disclosures showed that yet another trust called Triumph Electoral Trust received $15.06m from Tube Investments of India Ltd, another Murugappa Group company. The entire money went to the BJP, with no contribution by Triumph to other parties.The scale of these donations surprised observers as the Murugappa Group had been a modest political donor over the previous decade.

“Electoral trusts may be legal, but they normalise a system where money determines access, policy, and electoral success,” Parayil Sreerag, a political strategist, told Al Jazeera. Sreerag argued that such a mechanism “favours the ruling party, marginalises smaller movements, and erodes democratic competition and public trust”.

To be sure, corporate funding in India has a long history.

The Birla group of companies was a major financier of Mahatma Gandhi in the years leading up to independence in 1947. Since then, other companies and parties have continued the practice.

“Business houses have traditionally supported ruling political parties,” G Gopa Kumar, former vice chancellor of the Central University of Kerala and a political strategist, told Al Jazeera.

India’s legal framework governing corporate donations to political parties has evolved alongside political shifts. The Companies Act, 1956, first regulated such contributions, barring government companies and young firms, while mandating disclosure of donations. Corporate funding was later banned in 1969 under Prime Minister Indira Gandhi. The ban was lifted in 1985.

A major overhaul came in 2013 with the introduction of Electoral Trusts and the Companies Act, 2013. The new law capped corporate donations at 7.5 percent of average net profits, required board approval, and mandated disclosure, marking a significant attempt at regulation and transparency.

But while the Modi-era electoral bonds between 2018 and 2024 drew the bulk of the criticism over electoral finance from transparency activists, the return to electoral trusts has coincided with what is, in effect, an increase in corporate funding for parties. Between 2018 and 2024, the electoral bonds led to an average of under $350m in total donations per year.

Trusts – to which corporates turned after the bonds were scrapped – donated more than $450m by contrast, in 2024-25.

“Left unchecked, it [soaring corporate funding] risks creating a duopoly between political power and corporate capital,” Sreerag said.

Al Jazeera reached out to the Tata Group, the Murugappa Group and the Election Commission of India for their responses to concerns over links between donations and influence, but it has not yet received any response.

Uncovering corruption in election funding

Transparency activists argue that the surge in corporate funding, especially for the ruling party, both reveals the access and influence enjoyed by major firms and sheds light on the disadvantages faced by smaller parties and independent candidates.

Shelly Mahajan, a researcher at the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR), a prominent Indian election watchdog, said unequal access to private donations undermines political participation and electoral competition.

“Despite decades of reform proposals, the nexus between money and politics persists in India due to weak enforcement and inadequate regulation,” she told Al Jazeera.

To many, the electoral bonds scheme came to epitomise that dark and cosy “nexus”.

In December, Nature magazine published a study on alleged corruption under the scheme, authored by academics Devendra Poola and Vinitha Anna John.

The authors found that newly incorporated companies made unusually large donations soon after their formation, pointing to expectations of gains from the government. In several cases, firms accused of tax evasion or other financial crimes donated after raids by India’s enforcement and investigating agencies, raising concerns of coercive political pressure: 26 entities under investigation bought bonds worth $624.7m, including $223.3m after raids by investigating agencies.

Bond purchases peaked around election cycles. That timing – around elections and after raids – was “significant”, Poola told Al Jazeera. “That sequencing is analytically difficult to dismiss as coincidence.” While the data cannot establish legal intent, Poola stressed that the pattern points to an “institutionalised quid pro quo ecosystem enabled by opacity”.

Yet critics say transparency alone does not resolve the link between public policy and political funding – as the data since the ban on electoral bonds shows.

‘What kind of democracy is this?’

Mahajan, the ADR researcher, said that in its decision to strike down the electoral bonds, the Supreme Court invoked the 2013 law on electoral trusts to reimpose a 7.5 percent cap on corporate donations based on their net profits.

Companies were ordered to disclose both the amounts and the recipients, creating greater scope for public scrutiny and detailed analysis. But that is not happening. Abhilash MR, a Supreme Court lawyer, said large corporate donations raise serious concerns, particularly under Article 14 of the Constitution of India, which guarantees political equality and administrative fairness.

He said there is mounting evidence of generous government incentives followed by large corporate donations.“When policy decisions appear calibrated to facilitate corporate funding, the very idea of a welfare state is undermined,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that proving corruption in courts remains extremely difficult.

“Temporal proximity between policy benefits and donations rarely meets the evidentiary threshold needed to trigger an independent judicial inquiry,” he said. “In such situations, accountability shifts from courtrooms to the public domain.”

Mini S, a politician from the Socialist Unity Centre of India (Communist) party, had hoped for that shift among voters when she contested the 2024 national elections from Thiruvananthapuram, the capital of the southern Kerala state.

She couldn’t fund air-conditioned vehicles, so her campaign during India’s notorious summer moved through neighbourhoods on hired motorbikes and autorickshaws. She hoped to unseat Shashi Tharoor, a former UN diplomat and politician from the opposition Congress party, who had been representing Thiruvananthapuram in parliament since 2009. When the votes were counted, Mini secured just 1,109 votes, while Tharoor won by a landslide. She also forfeited her $275 security deposit.

But for Mini, the outcome was less a personal defeat than an indictment of how Indian elections are fought. Her entire campaign ran on $5,500, she said, an amount much lower than the $105,000 limit set by the Election Commission of India on expenditure by a parliamentary candidate.

“India likes to call itself the world’s largest democracy, but it’s not,” Mini told Al Jazeera. “When corporate money openly funds mainstream parties – through electoral bonds and trusts, often in clear quid pro quo arrangements – and the Election Commission stays silent, what kind of democracy is this?”

In such a scenario, Mini said, government policies “serve corporate interests, not the constitution”.

“Ordinary people are sidelined, and the marginalised are pushed further into the margins. With money of this scale in elections, anyone without corporate backing, like us, is effectively locked out of politics,” she said.

New York has confirmed that the federal government released another $77m for new tunnels and bridges connecting the state to its neighbour New Jersey, amid a feud with United States President Donald Trump.

On Tuesday, New York Governor Kathy Hochul appeared at a construction site alongside union leaders to push for the release of the remaining funds, which were frozen in October amid a record-breaking government shutdown.

“It cannot continue like this,” Hochul, a Democrat, told workers at the site.

“The workers need to know that that job is going to be there: the one they signed up for, the one they trained for, the one they’re so proud of. It has to be there year after year, until this project is done.”

At stake is the fate of the Northeast Corridor project, a central part of the Gateway Program, an interstate initiative to expand and renovate the aging tunnels that the link metropolitan hubs between New York and New Jersey.

The federal government had pledged billions in support for the project, considered to be vital for transportation and safety reasons.

But on October 1, one day into a historically long government shutdown, the Trump administration announced it would suspend $18bn in funding for the project that had already been granted.

The move was designed to pressure Democrats — and Democrat-aligned jurisdictions — to comply with Republican demands to end the shutdown.

But Trump hinted at the time that some of the programming cuts could be permanent. The shutdown ended after 43 days in November, and still, the funding for the New York City tunnel project remained frozen.

Democrats decried the freeze an act of political revenge. “It should concern every American that the Trump Administration is willing to harm working families and our nation’s economy to punish Democrats,” Representative Jerry Nadler of New York said in response to the funding suspension.

But Trump has continued to withhold the funds. On February 3, the states of New York and New Jersey announced they were suing the Trump administration to release the funds.

“After four months of covering costs with limited operating funds, the states warn that construction will be forced to completely shut down as soon as February 6 unless federal funding resumes,” attorneys general Letitia James of New York and Jennifer Davenport of New Jersey said in a statement at the time.

Three days later, as the states hit that February 6 deadline, a US district judge ordered the funds to be released, citing the potential for irreparable harm to the project.

The ruling required more than $200m in reimbursement funds to be paid out to the states.

Over the last week, the federal government responded by releasing $30m, in addition to the $77m announced on Tuesday. But officials said it was still not enough.

At Tuesday’s news conference, union leader Gary LaBarbera emphasised that new construction was a necessity.

“Let me tell you: The existing tunnels, the trans-Hudson tunnels, are over a hundred years old. Their structural integrity has failed,” he said.

He added that the issue of maintaining safe transportation should be nonpartisan

“This isn’t a Republican tunnel or a Democratic tunnel, right? This should not be a political tug of war,” he said.

Governor Hochul, meanwhile, used part of her speech to address the president. “ Let’s stop the chaos. Let’s stop the insanity. Let them work, Mr President,” she said, in a gesture to the workers around her.

But this week, on his social media platform Truth Social, Trump doubled down on his opposition to the project.

“I am opposed to the future boondoggle known as ‘Gateway,’ in New York/New Jersey, because it will cost many BILLIONS OF DOLLARS more than projected or anticipated,” Trump wrote.

“It is a disaster! Gateway will likewise be financially catastrophic for the region, unless hard work and proper planning is done, NOW, to avoid insurmountable future cost overruns.”

He also denounced reports that he would un-freeze the funding in exchange for renaming New York’s Penn Station after him, as well as Washington’s Dulles airport.

“IT IS JUST MORE FAKE NEWS,” Trump wrote, adding that such a proposal was “brought up by certain politicians and construction union heads”, not him.

Still, his White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt appeared to confirm the reports last week during a news briefing.

“Why not?” she told a reporter. “It was something the president floated in his conversation with [Senate Minority Leader] Chuck Schumer.”

On Tuesday, reports emerged that the Trump Organization had filed trademark claims for any airports bearing the president’s name.

Republicans in Florida’s legislature have already sought to rename the international airport in Palm Beach for Trump, citing his nearby golf courses and residence at Mar-a-Lago.

About 1.4 billion people began marking the Lunar New Year on Tuesday amid fireworks as China enters the Year of the Fire Horse, one of 12 animals in the Chinese zodiac.

Known as the Spring Festival in China, the new year, based on the lunar calendar, also brings about the world’s largest annual human migration, called Chunyun, as millions travel across the country for family reunions.

It is also a huge opportunity to boost domestic consumption in the world’s second-largest economy, which has been driven by exports.

Monday night’s gala, one of the largest state-sponsored televised events, was marked by a stunningly synchronised kung fu performance by robots and children.

The Year of the Horse, said to bring optimism and opportunity, is following the Year of the Snake, which represented transformation and strategy.

Here is a quick snapshot of the festival.

What’s Lunar New Year?

It is the most important holiday in China and is celebrated by millions of people in the country and in East and Southeast Asia.

In the days leading up to it, people clean their homes and decorate with red lanterns, couplets, and paper cuttings that represent prosperity and good fortune.

On the eve of the Lunar New Year, families gather for a large reunion dinner, exchanging hongbao, red envelopes of cash as a symbol of blessings and good fortune.

The celebrations usually last about 15 days, ending with the Lantern Festival. Fireworks, dragon and lion dances, temple fairs across big cities and the hinterland are common during this period.

In the Chinese zodiac, each year is associated with one of the 12 zodiac animals, which is believed to influence the year’s character and fortune.

The animal from the Chinese zodiac is then paired with any one of the five elements: metal, wood, water, fire and earth.

This is the Year of the Fire Horse.

This year’s official holiday is nine days, rather than the typical eight, with New Year’s Day falling on Tuesday, February 17.

What’s Year of the Fire Horse?

The Chinese zodiac system is incredibly complex, repeating every 12 years, each represented by an animal in this order: rat, ox, tiger, rabbit, dragon, snake, horse, goat, monkey, rooster, dog and pig.

The year of one’s birth decides their zodiac sign; meaning, the ones born last year were Snakes, this year’s children would be Horses and next year’s would be Goats.

A complex mechanism decides how the year will be paired with one of the five elements.

This year, the element is Bing, or big sun, paired with the Horse. This pairing occurs every 60 years, most recently in 1966.

For those who believe in the Chinese zodiac, the Year of the Fire Horse represents an explosion of energy and independence, with unpredictable realignments.

Why is China hoping the Lunar New Year spending will boost the economy?

The Spring Festival in China is not just cultural but also economically significant, typically driving a spike in consumption across multiple sectors.

People spend heavily on food and festive goods, entertainment, and tourism, with retail and e-commerce platforms registering a surge in sales during the pre-holiday period.

The Chinese government is also expecting a record 9.5 billion passenger trips during the 40-day Spring Festival period, up from nine billion trips last year, as they travel for annual reunions.

The government has also issued consumer vouchers worth more than 360 million yuan ($52m) this month to boost consumption.

China is looking to boost domestic spending in its next five-year economic plan, where households save nearly a third of their income.

Where else is Lunar New Year celebrated?

It is a global phenomenon extending beyond China. In East and Southeast Asia, several countries observe the Lunar New Year under distinct cultural pretexts.

For instance, Vietnam celebrates Tet Nguyen Dan, which emphasises family reunions and specific culinary traditions like banh chung. In South Korea, Seollal, or the Korean New Year, focuses on honouring ancestors and the consumption of tteokguk, a rice cake soup believed to grant people another year of age.

In Southeast Asian countries like Singapore and Malaysia, the holiday is a multicultural event marked by public holidays.

Diaspora communities in cities like San Francisco, London, and Sydney also host some of the largest celebrations in the world, featuring massive parades, dragon boat races and fireworks.

Fun fact about the Year of the Horse

This Lunar New Year found its mascot in a rather unusual place: in the World of Harry Potter, a wildly popular British production. And that too in the franchise’s most popular villain, Draco Malfoy.

In Mandarin, the name Malfoy is written phonetically as “ma er fu”. The opening character, ma, signifies “horse” and the closing character, fu, represents “fortune” or “blessing”.

Democrats have called for a ban on immigration agents wearing masks and are pushing for increased oversight of their operations.

The United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) ran out of funding over the weekend, leading to the third partial government shutdown of President Donald Trump’s second term, as negotiations between Republicans and Democrats remain stalled while Congress is in recess until February 23.

Democrats are calling for changes to the DHS’s immigration operations after two fatal shootings of US citizens in the city of Minneapolis last month. Alex Pretti and Renee Good were shot dead by federal officers from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Border Patrol during such operations.

On Monday, state officials in Minnesota said that the FBI has refused to share evidence with state law enforcement following Pretti’s killing on January 24.

“This lack of cooperation is concerning and unprecedented,” Minnesota’s Bureau of Criminal Apprehension superintendent, Drew Evans, said in a statement.

DHS entered a shutdown on Saturday, but will continue operations deemed essential. Cuts affect agencies under the DHS, including the Transportation Security Administration (TSA), the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), Customs and Border Protection (CBP) – which runs Border Patrol – ICE, and the US coastguard.

At US airports, 2,933 of the TSA’s 64,130 employees have been furloughed for the duration of the shutdown. The remaining 95 percent of staff will remain on duty but will work without pay until the DHS is funded.

Earlier this month, Democrats sent Republicans a list of 10 demands to rein in immigration enforcement. In a letter, authored by House of Representatives Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, the politicians called for increased oversight of the DHS.

The letter called for DHS officers not to enter private property without a judicial warrant and to require verification that someone is not a US citizen before placing them in immigration detention. It also called for DHS to mandate that its officers do not wear masks, have visible identification, and wear clear uniforms.

Democrats are also seeking to prohibit immigration enforcement actions near courts, medical facilities, houses of worship, schools, and polling places.

They further called for increased coordination with local and state agencies after the federal government blocked state and local law enforcement from participating in investigations related to the deaths in Minneapolis.

“Federal immigration agents cannot continue to cause chaos in our cities while using taxpayer money that should be used to make life more affordable for working families,” Jeffries said in the letter.

“The American people rightfully expect their elected representatives to take action to rein in ICE and ensure no more lives are lost. It is critical that we come together to impose common sense reforms and accountability measures that the American people are demanding.”

Tom Homan, Trump’s border chief, dismissed the calls from Democrats on CBS’s Face the Nation, referring to the requests as “unreasonable”.

Republican Senator Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma, meanwhile, echoed Homan’s stance. On CNN’s current affairs programme, State of the Union, he claimed that Democrats are engaging in “political theatre”.

Buenos Aires, Argentina: Diego Nacasio, 43, works full time as a salesman at a large hardware store in Florencio Varela, a city in the greater Buenos Aires area. He says he doesn’t need a calendar to know what day of the month it is. By the time his salary and that of his wife, who also works full time in a shop, run out, it is around the 15th.

From then on, they look for extra jobs, find things to sell, use their credit cards, and get small loans to pay for basics, including food, until the next paycheques arrive.

“I have never experienced anything like this,” Nacasio told Al Jazeera. “Over the past 25 years, we have worked hard, and our jobs allowed us to build a house from scratch, buy a car and give our 17-year-old son a decent life. Now, we have better jobs than we did then, and still cannot even afford food for the whole month.”

“Living on credit puts you in a very dangerous cycle. It’s very easy to fall behind with payments, and then it is a matter of chasing your own tail. Most people I know are in the same situation. We are living in a constant state of stress and anxiety, and it feels like there’s no way out.”

Nacasio’s story has become increasingly common in Argentina, where nearly half of the people say they are using savings, selling belongings or borrowing money from banks or relatives to cover basics, according to a report by Argentina Grande based on the latest official figures available. Another report, from Fundacion Pensar, found that 63 percent of Argentines have cut down on activities or services to make ends meet.

“The current situation in Argentina is extremely concerning. It is particularly worrying to see that even people who have one or several jobs are getting loans not to buy a house, a car or white goods [appliances], but to buy food,” Violeta Carrera Pereyra, sociologist and researcher at the Argentina Grande Institute and one of the authors of the report, told Al Jazeera.

A tale of two cities

Argentina’s President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023, says his austerity economic plan, based on achieving fiscal balance while building up reserves of United States currency through drastic cuts to public spending, has revitalised the economy and lifted millions of people out of poverty. He is backed by the International Monetary Fund, which, despite Argentina’s record levels of foreign loans, projects an economic growth of four percent in 2026 and 2027.

But a closer look at the figures shows a different, more sombre, picture.

While economic activity in Argentina has increased overall, growth has been uneven. In November 2025, the most recent month for which data is available, sectors such as banking and agriculture saw growth, but manufacturing and commerce experienced sharp declines, with many factories and shops closing due to falling demand. Consumption, particularly of food, has been falling, with a 12.5 percent drop reported by independent food retailers.

Then there’s inflation, a key variable that in Argentina needs to be kept at bay in order to access essential foreign credit.

While Milei’s shock economic plan managed to significantly reduce inflation from record-high figures when he first took office in late 2023, experts say his administration has taken some controversial measures to keep it low. This includes forcing salaries to remain stagnant and under the rate of inflation, and opening the country up to cheaper imports. These policies have left many without money to spend and forced thousands of factories and small businesses to close.

Critics also say inflation figures are not representative of real price fluctuations. The tool used to measure inflation in Argentina, a sample basket of goods people consume, was developed in 2004 and does not reflect current consumption patterns, including the percentage that items like electricity and fuel – two areas that have seen price hikes considerably higher than inflation – represent in people’s real spending habits.

Carrera Pereyra says that figures also show that the rapid changes in Argentina’s economy have widened inequalities.

“On the one hand, we see that some sectors are able to consume more, so we see a rise in the sales of properties, cars, motorbikes, some as a result of the opening of imports,” she said. “But on the other hand, items like food and medicines are decreasing. So, some people can buy more things than before, while others are struggling to put food on the table.”

An obstacle course

Many Argentines who spoke with Al Jazeera said that making ends meet has become nothing short of an obstacle course. Juggling multiple demanding jobs, selling used items such as clothing, borrowing from relatives, seeking shark loans and bargain hunting have become a regular part of daily life.

“Shopping for food has become a job in itself,”  said Veronica Malfitano, 43, a teacher and trade unionist, whose salary was cut by a quarter when Milei slashed public spending. “I team up with relatives or people I work with, and we buy in bulk. I use my credit card or get small loans. This month, for the first time, I have only paid the credit card’s minimum, something I had never done before. It’s all very stressful. Everybody I know is in the same situation.”

Research confirms Malfitano is not alone. Nearly half of supermarket purchases in Argentina are paid with credit cards, a record, according to recent official data.

Both borrowing and default rates have increased. It is estimated that around 11 percent of personal loans are unpaid, the highest rate since the Central Bank of Argentina began keeping records in 2010, according to Central Bank data.

Griselda Quipildor, 49, who lives with her husband, two daughters and two grandchildren, says that even though several people in her family work, money usually runs out by the 18th of every month and they have to start taking loans.

“At the start of the month, we pay debts, the bills and then the money runs out and we have to start borrowing again. It’s an endless vicious circle, one that is very difficult to get away from. We borrow from people we know and people we don’t know. It wasn’t like this before.”

Lucia Cavallero, an analyst, economics expert, and member of Movida Ciudad, told Al Jazeera that even though Argentina’s economic problems are longstanding, their impact on people’s homes is worsening.

“Debt has long been a serious problem in Argentina, and it has now become a crisis,” she said. “The proliferation of informal lenders has created a dangerous situation, leaving many people with no other options.”

In response, a political party has proposed a bill that would help people in lower-income sectors unify their loans and apply for a long-term payment plan at lower rates.

Cavallero says there are some positive aspects to the initiative, but that it largely misses the central point.

“It is good to see the political class recognising that debts are a serious problem for people,” she said. “However, this approach follows the logic of borrowing to pay off debt. While it may provide temporary relief, deeper structural changes are needed.

“Just as banks are bailed out, we are calling for families to be supported. A more sustainable solution is for wages to keep pace with the cost of the basic basket, so that people do not have to go into debt just to afford food,” Cavallero told Al Jazeera.

Despite all the challenges he and his family face, Nacasio says many people like himself still count themselves lucky.

“At least we own our house,” he said. “If we didn’t and we had to pay rent, I don’t know what we would do. I just need things to change, for us and for everybody. Things cannot continue like this.”

Heads of state are arriving in Addis Ababa for the 2026 African Union Summit, with a water-focused theme centred on climate change. Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan, DR Congo and the Sahel loom, while Israel’s recognition of Somaliland adds pressure over borders.

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has claimed that Washington engineered a dollar shortage in Iran to send the rial into freefall and cause protests on the streets.

In December and January, Iran was faced with one of the biggest antigovernment protests the country has seen since the Islamic revolution of 1979, prompted by the severe economic crisis.

Protests over soaring prices in Iran began with shopkeepers in Tehran who shuttered their shops and began demonstrating on December 28, 2025, after the rial plunged to a record low against the US dollar in late December. The protests then spread to other provinces of Iran.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s government responded with force. More than 6,800 protesters, including at least 150 children, are thought to have been killed in a sweeping crackdown by the government on the protest movement.

So, how did Washington create a “dollar shortage” in Iran, ultimately causing the rial to tank? And what effect has that had on the Iranian people?

What is a ‘dollar shortage’?

A “dollar shortage” refers to when a country does not have enough US dollars to pay for things it needs from the rest of the world.

The US dollar is the main currency used in global trade, especially for oil, machinery and loan repayments, which means countries need a steady supply of it.

If exports fall and sanctions block access to the US financial system, dollars can become scarce. As a result, the local currency weakens, prices of imported goods rise, and inflation worsens.

In Iran, a “dollar shortage” was engineered by simultaneously blocking the two main channels of foreign exchange (FX) inflow: Oil exports and international banking access, said Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, an economist at Germany’s Marburg University. The US did this by imposing sanctions on Iranian oil, meaning anyone buying or selling it would be subject to punitive measures.

Given Iran’s dependence on oil for revenue, economic sanctions on its oil can create a severe FX constraint.

“By using secondary sanctions to threaten any global entity trading in dollars with Iran, the US traps Iran’s existing reserves abroad and prevents new dollars from entering the domestic market,” Farzanegan told Al Jazeera.

What has US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said?

Replying to a query about dealing with Iran at a Congressional hearing last week, Treasury Secretary Bessent described the US strategy to send the Iranian currency plunging.

“What we [have done] at Treasury is created a dollar shortage in the country,” Bessent said, adding that the strategy came to a “grand culmination in December, when one of the largest banks in Iran went under … the Iranian currency went into freefall, inflation exploded, and hence, we have seen the Iranian people out on the street.

“We have seen the Iranian leadership wiring money out of the country like crazy,” Bessent added. “So the rats are leaving the ship, and that is a good sign that they know the end may be near.”

Before this, speaking with Fox News at the World Economic Forum last month in Davos, Bessent explained the role US sanctions played in driving the recent nationwide protests.

“President Trump ordered Treasury … to put maximum pressure on Iran, and it’s worked,” he said. “Because in December, their economy collapsed. They are not able to get imports, and this is why the people took to the streets.”

In both instances, Bessent referred to his earlier remarks at the Economic Club of New York, in March last year, when he outlined how the White House would leverage President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign to collapse Iran’s economy.

In his address there, Bessent said the US “elevated a sanctions campaign against [Iran’s] export infrastructure, targeting all stages of Iran’s oil supply chain”, coupled with “vigorous government engagement and private sector outreach” to “close off Iran’s access to the international financial system”.

What effect did the dollar shortage have in Iran?

In January, the Iranian rial was trading at 1.5 million to the dollar – a sharp decline from about 700,000 a year earlier in January 2025 and about 900,000 in mid-2025. The plummeting currency triggered steep inflation, with food prices an average of 72 percent higher than last year.

In 2018, during his first presidency, Trump withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a deal between Iran and global powers limiting Tehran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief.

Since re-election last January, President Trump has doubled down on his so-called “maximum pressure” to cripple Iran’s economy and corner Tehran to renegotiate its nuclear and regional policies. Last month, Trump threatened a 25 percent tariff on countries doing business with Iran.

Through the rigorous blocking of Iran from the global financial system by creating a dollar shortage, the US pushed Tehran towards a severe “import compression, [and as a result, Iran] cannot pay for the intermediate goods and machinery required for domestic production”, said Farzanegan, the economist.

The US strategy, he said, “is particularly devastating because it leverages commercial risk management against humanitarian needs”. In short, Washington’s strategy “makes the small Iranian market a commercial liability” for any company, even if they are only dealing with medicine, for instance, Farzanegan added.

A research paper published by Farzanegan and Iranian American economist Nader Habibi last year found that the size of Iran’s middle class would have expanded by an annual average of approximately 17 percentage points, between 2012 and 2019, if it were not for US action.

In 2019, the estimated size of loss in the middle-class share of the population in Iran was 28 percentage points, the research found.

“People lost their purchasing power, and savings were wiped out,” the economist told Al Jazeera. “This is a long-term destruction of the country’s human capital.”

Besides the US action is the existing vulnerability of Iran’s economic structure, with factors like long-term mismanagement, high rates of corruption and over-reliance on oil revenues making it fragile.

While the US sanctions created external shock, a lack of domestic structural reforms left the government with “no fiscal space to cushion the blow”.

What is the US’s endgame here – and will it succeed?

Bessent’s admission that Washington deliberately created a “dollar shortage” signals the US’s shift towards a total economic warfare narrative.

“This is economic statecraft; no shots fired,” Bessent said at the WEF in Davos last month.

“This admission may complicate the US’s diplomatic standing, as it confirms that the humanitarian channels for food and medicine are often rendered useless if the entire banking system is being targeted for collapse,” Farzanegan said.

Bruce Fein, a former US associate deputy attorney general who specialises in constitutional and international law, told Al Jazeera that this type of economic coercion is “as common as the sun rising in the east and setting in the west”, pointing to economic sanctions against Russia, Cuba, North Korea, China and Myanmar.

However, unlike in other cases where the US has applied economic pressure, Farzanegan said Iran’s case is “a unique experiment due to the duration and intensity of the pressure”.

Unlike Russia, which has a more diversified export base and larger reserves, Iran has been facing varied forms of sanctions for decades since the supreme leader took power in 1979.

“Iran has a sophisticated internal mechanism for sanctions circumvention that makes the ‘dollar shortage’ a game of cat-and-mouse rather than a one-time shock,” the economist said.

With a US armada currently stationed in the Arabian Sea, the US and Iran are in talks to defuse tensions. The US wants three key things from Iran: To stop enriching uranium as part of its nuclear programme, to get rid of its ballistic missiles and to stop arming non-state actors in the region.

Ultimately, observers say, the US wants regime change in Iran.

But Fein said his experience shows that economic sanctions alone “seldom, if ever, topple regimes … Regime change comes externally only with the use of military force.

“Iran’s dollar shortage will not oust the mullahs or Revolutionary Guard,” he said, referring to Iran’s current administrative structure.

The impoverishment of Iranians will diminish, Fein told Al Jazeera, “rather than promote the likelihood of a successful revolution because day-to-day survival will be the priority”.

Ruemmler’s resignation comes after emails revealed her links to the late sex offender.

The top lawyer at Goldman Sachs, Kathy Ruemmler, has announced that she will resign following revelations of her links to the late financier and sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Ruemmler’s resignation comes after the United States Department of Justice’s latest release of investigative files about Epstein showed that she had received gifts from Epstein, offered him advice on managing his reputation, and likened him to an older brother.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon confirmed Ruemmler’s resignation in a statement on Thursday, saying that he respected her decision.

“Throughout her tenure, Kathy has been an extraordinary general counsel, and we are grateful for her contributions and sound advice on a wide range of consequential legal matters for the firm,” Solomon said in a statement provided to Al Jazeera.

“As one of the most accomplished professionals in her field, Kathy has also been a mentor and friend to many of our people, and she will be missed,” he said.

In an interview with the Financial Times on Thursday, Ruemmler, who previously served as White House counsel under US President Barack Obama, said that she would step down as chief legal officer and general counsel at the end of June.

Ruemmler told the newspaper that media attention on her relationship with Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, had become a “distraction”.

She had previously expressed regret for knowing Epstein, and denied providing the financier with legal representation or advocating on his behalf to any third party.

Ruemmler is just the latest in a slew of high-profile and powerful figures to exit prominent roles or face legal scrutiny in connection with the Epstein case.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday announced the resignation of his cabinet secretary, Chris Wormald, in his latest effort to quell controversy surrounding his appointment of Peter Mandelson, Britain’s former ambassador to the US, whose ties to Epstein have prompted a police investigation into suspected misconduct in public office.

Also on Thursday, police in Norway searched properties belonging to former Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland as part of a corruption probe focused on the politician’s associations with Epstein.

Taipei agrees to buy some $85bn of US energy, aircraft and equipment in exchange for 15 percent tariff rate.

The United States and Taiwan have finalised a trade deal to reduce tariffs on Taiwanese exports and facilitate billions of dollars of spending on US goods.

The agreement announced on Thursday lowers the general tariff on Taiwanese goods from 20 percent to 15 percent, the same level as Asian trade partners South Korea and Japan, in exchange for Taipei agreeing to buy about $85bn of US energy, aircraft and equipment.

Under the deal, Taiwan will eliminate or reduce 99 percent of tariff barriers and provide preferential market access to numerous US goods, including auto parts, chemicals, machinery, health products, dairy products and pork, the office of the US trade envoy said in a statement.

The US will, in turn, exempt a large range of Taiwanese goods from tariffs, including chalk, castor oil, pineapples and ginseng.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te said Taipei had secured tariff exemptions for some 2,000 Taiwanese products, hailing the agreement as a “pivotal” moment for the self-governing island’s economy.

Lai said the deal, when various carve-outs are included, would take the average tariff rate on Taiwanese goods to 12.3 percent.

“From familiar items such as Phalaenopsis orchids, tea, bubble tea ingredients (tapioca starch), and coffee, to pineapple cakes, taro, pineapples, and mangoes – these products that represent Taiwan will become more price-competitive in the US market,” Lai said in a statement on social media.

“We aim not only to sell Taiwan’s great flavors overseas, but also to ensure Taiwanese brands truly enter international markets,” he said.

Lai made no mention of Taiwan’s chip industry, a crucial driver of the island’s economy that is estimated to account for up to 20 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

Taiwan’s exports rose by 35 percent in 2025 on the back of furious demand for its AI chips, hitting a record $640.75bn.

Thursday’s agreement notably does not include specific commitments from Taiwan to invest in the US chip industry, despite an announcement by US President Donald Trump’s administration last month that Taiwanese firms would pour $250bn into the sector.

A fact sheet released by the Office of the US Trade Representative said the two sides “take note” of the January deal, which included a prior commitment by chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing to invest $100bn in the US.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Thursday’s agreement built on the longstanding trade relations between Taiwan and the US and would “significantly enhance the resilience of our supply chains, particularly in high-technology sectors”.

“President Trump’s leadership in the Asia Pacific region continues to generate prosperous trade ties for the United States with important partners across Asia, while further advancing the economic and national security interests of the American people,” Greer said.

Nearly one-third of Taiwan’s exports went to the US in 2025, making the country the island’s biggest market for the first time since 2000.

Jeffrey Epstein used a former Russian official with links to Moscow’s FSB intelligence services to collect information on a woman he claimed was attempting to blackmail his business associates, according to documents released by the United States Department of Justice.

Epstein reached out to Sergei Belyakov, a former deputy minister of economic development, for advice in 2015 about what he described as an attempt to blackmail a group of “powerful” businessmen in New York, the documents contained in the latest tranche of the so-called Epstein files show.

“I need a favor,” Epstein wrote to Belyakov in a July 2015 email, describing an extortion attempt by a Russian woman who had arrived at the Four Seasons Hotel in New York the previous week.

Epstein said the situation was “bad for business for everyone involved” and asked for “suggestions”.

Belyakov, a graduate of the FSB Academy, Moscow’s institute for training intelligence personnel, wrote back that he needed some time to “get information about her” and that he would meet a man who knew the woman the next day.

Several days later, Belyakov sent Epstein a roughly 100-word description of the woman’s background and what the ex-official described as her “sex and escort” business.

“She has nobody behind her,” Belyakov said, adding that she was believed to have “no patronage”.

Belyakov said “business problems” may have led the woman to resort to blackmail, and suggested that denying her entry to the US would be a “real threat” to her business.

Epstein, the FSB Academy graduate and US billionaires

Belyakov, who took up the position of board chairman at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum after leaving the Kremlin in 2014, relied on Epstein for access to high-profile figures in the financier’s orbit, according to the documents.

After a meeting with Epstein in May 2014, Belyakov told the convicted sex offender that he did not know many people who could offer “new horizons and prospects”.

“And I’m looking forward for next meeting with you,” he told Epstein.

In July 2015, Belyakov sought Epstein’s help to organise meetings with American venture capitalist Peter Thiel and the billionaire heir and businessman Thomas Pritzker.

“Sergey – let me know when you are in SF and it would be good to find a time to meet,” Thiel wrote to Belyakov in an email in July 2015, following an introduction by Epstein.

A little over a week later, Belyakov told Epstein that Thiel and Pritzker had shared their views on Russia’s economy and other topics, calling the meetings “very helpful”.

“By the way I was surprised that they had a lot of information about Russian economy and their view about our society,” Belyakov wrote, adding he hoped to see both businessmen again in Moscow.

In 2016, Belyakov sought Epstein’s feedback on proposals he wished to discuss with business leaders in the US.

Epstein told Belyakov he liked the idea, which was not specified in the emails, but that he should get a “good English speaking editor” before sharing business proposals, and there were “pretty women” who could fill the role.

Efforts by Al Jazeera to contact Belyakov, including through the St Petersburg International Economic Forum and the e-commerce company Ozon, where he served as managing director from 2021 to 2024, were unsuccessful.

Thiel’s foundation did not respond to a request for comment. Pritzker declined to comment through a spokesperson for his foundation.

Epstein also sought to arrange meetings with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, according to the documents, though there is no indication he was successful.

“I think you might suggest to putin, that lavrov, can get insight on talking to me,” Epstein wrote in an email to former Norwegian Prime Minister Thorbjorn Jagland in June 2018.

Jagland, who is under investigation in Norway on suspicion of corruption in his dealings with Epstein, wrote back that he would “suggest” the idea to Lavrov’s assistant.

Epstein, who died in 2019 while in prison awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges, has long been the focus of speculation that he worked for or with intelligence agencies on behalf of various countries, including Israel.

He had close ties with former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak during his lifetime, with the two men exploring numerous business ventures and regularly exchanging correspondence on personal matters.

Barak’s former aide Yoni Koren, an ex-Israeli military intelligence officer who died in 2023, also stayed at residences belonging to Epstein for long stretches while receiving cancer treatment in the US in the late 2010s.

New York City, United States – For 14 years, BC Dodge built a career telling other people’s stories as a marketing and communications professional in the nonprofit sector in the Washington, DC area in the United States. But in late 2024, that stable career hit a speed bump.

He was laid off from his job amid a round of restructuring. The news landed without warning. One day he had a job, and the next he was sitting at home, staring at the numbers, trying to figure out how to keep paying the mortgage and putting food on the table.

He is married, and his partner is a teacher, but the math did not work. One salary might cover things for a little while, but not long enough to maintain long-term stability.

So he started applying for new work immediately. Over three months, he submitted 350 job applications. He got six interviews.

After months of searching, something moved.

He advanced in the hiring process for a Washington, DC–based nonprofit, making it far enough to sit across from senior leadership. It felt like he finally caught a break.

Then the ground shifted again. As Dodge was interviewing for a new job, Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, was advising the administration of US President Donald Trump on how to shrink the federal government, and that meant cutting funding to agencies that provide contracts and funds to swaths of nonprofit organisations around the country. The effects rippled outward, and Dodge was caught in the crosshairs.

Contracts were cancelled and funding streams dried up. Nonprofits that depend on government support had to pull back and scale down ambitions — those very same nonprofits from whom Dodge sought employment.

“I got a call from HR saying they weren’t going to hire for the position, and that all hiring was on hold. I couldn’t argue with them, because I’d been hearing the same thing from organisations I’d spoken to since I started applying. ‘We were relying on federal funds, and now they’re gone,’” Dodge said.

Then it was back to the drawing board. He began searching yet again, but this time with a cloud of uncertainty looming over the entire industry he works in. Dodge finally took what he could get — part-time work in his field. The pay was well below what he had been earning before, but he accepted it anyway. Some income, he reasoned, was better than none.

The result is underemployment. Underemployment can manifest in several ways, often when workers are seeking full-time work but can only find part-time positions, or when the jobs they work do not fully utilise their skills and training. It is generally associated with industries like restaurants or retail, but it also reaches into fields with fewer resources and shrinking opportunities, including the nonprofit sector, where jobs are increasingly precarious and full-time stability is harder to find because of the wave of government funding cuts in 2025.

The upshot is lower incomes for underemployed workers, sometimes below the cost of living or even pushing them into the ranks of the working poor.

Underemployment has been on the rise, according to the Economic Policy Institute, which has tracked the rate of underemployment since 1978. Today, 8 percent of the US population is underemployed, up 0.5 percent from 2024 and it is up 1.1 percent from 2023.

At the same time, many in the US are seeing their expenses increase.

The impact of tariffs has hit low-to-middle-income earners harder than others. Analysis from the Yale Budget Lab found that lower-income households are paying a higher percentage of their post-tax income on goods subject to tariffs as opposed to higher-income households, all while costs for necessities like healthcare are increasing.

Earlier this year, Congressional leaders failed to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies. Premiums increased by an average of 144 percent, according to analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation.

“Some people have lost their jobs and found new ones that pay less, but others have kept their jobs, but their healthcare premiums have increased. Their electric bills have also gone up. Their salaries no longer cover basic living costs,” Jillian Hishaw, a personal bankruptcy lawyer in Charlotte, North Carolina, said.

She said that because of increased costs like these and a stalling job market, she is seeing an increase in inquiries about personal bankruptcy filings in efforts by potential clients not to lose their homes to foreclosure.

“In one day last week, 85 foreclosures were filed in Mecklenburg County [where Charlotte is located]. Foreclosures happen daily, but 85 in a single day is unusually high. Two years ago, the daily average was 10 to 20, but now filings are approaching triple digits each day,” Hishaw said.

Shrinking options

The surging economic pressures hit workers across various sectors, including financial and administrative services. An Ohio-based accountant who did not want his name to be published, has worked a patchwork of accounting and administrative jobs over the past few years. In March, he was laid off from a research organisation in central Ohio.

After months of searching, he found new work, but not as an accountant, and the pay falls far short of covering his cost of living.

“I’m working as a sales coordinator, which I really don’t want to be doing, but it was the only thing I could land with how bad things are. It’s not enough to live on,” he said.

The labour market is under strain. Layoffs reached more than 1.1 million in 2025, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, while job creation failed to keep pace, with just 584,000 jobs added. As a result, more workers are settling for underpaid or part-time work that does not meet basic living expenses, including Dodge and the accountant.

Michele Evermore, senior fellow at the National Academy of Social Insurance, says that economic uncertainty driven by tariffs and developments in artificial intelligence has put businesses across a wide set of sectors essentially on pause — maintaining the status quo or scaling back.

“People who are already at the margins are getting kicked out entirely, and that’s placing pressure on everyone who is clinging to a job,” Evermore told Al Jazeera.

In January, one of the key measures of underemployment, the number of people who work part-time for economic reasons, such as an inability to find full-time work or had their hours reduced, hit 4.9 million. It was a 453,000 decline from the month before, but is up 410,000 from this time last year, according to the January jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday.

Long-term unemployment jumped 386,000 from this time a year ago to 1.8 million, although it remains unchanged compared with the previous month.

The nonprofit sector has been hit particularly hard in the last year, losing 28,729 jobs in 2025, up sharply from 5,640 losses the year before, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Like the Ohio accountant, Dodge has been searching for new opportunities since he lost his full-time role a year and a half ago. He has applied for 460 jobs and only landed a handful of interviews.

Working weekends, washing dishes

The market is only getting tighter. US employers cut more than 108,000 jobs in January, while employers only announced intentions to hire 5,300 new roles for the month, the lowest on record since Challenger, Gray & Christmas started tracking that in 2009.

“Employers aren’t wanting to make any big investments right now, including increasing salaries to their workforce,” Evermore, who served as a policy adviser in the US Labor Department during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, added.

In December, labour market turnover remained stagnant. Amid economic uncertainty and a slowdown in new job growth, many Americans are hanging on to the jobs they already have. Job openings fell to 6.5 million, down 386,000 from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS).

Hiring and separations, which include layoffs and firings, were unchanged. That followed November’s report, which similarly showed little movement in both new hiring and the number of workers leaving their jobs.

Combined, that means that for the underemployed, finding a new role, either part-time to augment their existing income, or to replace it altogether, is increasingly difficult for people like the accountant.

“I’m also working weekends at a friend’s cafe, washing dishes, and I’m still applying and interviewing for other opportunities. But it’s the same story, no offers. At the same time, I’m debating whether to switch professions or even go back to school, even though I already have a master’s degree,” he said.

That shared distress has also created an unlikely sense of camaraderie among those struggling to get by, even as the outlook remains bleak.

Dodge finds it in late-night scrolls through Reddit, watching strangers narrate versions of the same stalled search.

“I doomscroll a lot,” he said, “getting depressed about the state of politics and the global economy, and taking some solace in knowing I’m not the only one struggling to find viable employment after 12, 13, 14, even 15 months.”

For now, that recognition of others stuck in the same place, hitting the same walls, is enough to keep him moving forward, submitting applications and waiting for a response that might not even come.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office’s 10-year outlook projects worsening long-term United States federal deficits and rising debt, driven largely by increased spending, notably on Social Security, Medicare, and debt service payments.

Compared with the CBO’s analysis this time last year, the fiscal outlook, which was released on Wednesday, has deteriorated modestly.

The CBO said that the deficit for fiscal 2026 – President Donald Trump’s first full fiscal year in office – will be about 5.8 percent of GDP, about where it was in fiscal 2025, when the deficit was $1.775 trillion.

But the US deficit-to-GDP ratio will average 6.1 percent over the next decade, reaching 6.7 percent in fiscal 2036 – far above US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s goal to shrink it to about 3 percent of economic output.

Major developments over the last year are factored into the latest report, including Republicans’ tax and spending measure known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” higher tariffs, and the Trump administration’s crackdown on immigration, which includes deporting millions of immigrants from the US mainland.

As a result of these changes, the projected 2026 deficit is about $100bn higher, and total deficits from 2026 to 2035 are $1.4 trillion larger, while debt held by the public is projected to rise from 101 percent of GDP to 120 percent — exceeding historical highs.

Notably, the CBO says higher tariffs partially offset some of those increases by raising federal revenue by $3 trillion, but that also comes with higher inflation from 2026 to 2029.

Rising debt and debt service are important because repaying investors for borrowed money crowds out government spending on basic needs such as roads, infrastructure and education, which enable investments in future economic growth.

CBO projections also indicate that inflation does not hit the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target rate until 2030.

A major difference is that the CBO forecasts rely on significantly lower economic growth projections than the Trump administration, pegging 2026 real GDP growth at 2.2 percent on a fourth-quarter comparison basis, fading to an average of about 1.8 percent for the rest of the decade.

Trump administration officials in recent weeks have projected robust growth in the 3-4 percent range for 2026, with recent predictions that first-quarter growth could top 6 percent amid rising investments in factories and artificial intelligence data centres.

CBO’s forecasts assume that tax and spending laws and tariff policies in early December remain in place for a decade. The government’s fiscal year starts on October 1.

While revived investment tax incentives and bigger individual tax refunds provide a boost in 2026, the CBO said that this is attenuated by the drag from larger fiscal deficits and reduced immigration that slows the growth of the labour force.

Jonathan Burks, executive vice president of economic and health policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center said “large deficits are unprecedented for a growing, peacetime economy”, though “the good news is there is still time for policymakers to correct course.”

‘Urgent warning’

Lawmakers have recently addressed rising federal debt and deficits primarily through targeted spending caps and debt limit suspensions, as well as deploying “extraordinary measures” when the US is close to hitting its statutory spending limit, though these measures have often been accompanied by new, large-scale spending or tax policies that maintain high deficit levels.

And Trump, at the start of his second term, deployed a new “Department of Government Efficiency”, which set a goal to balance the budget by cutting $2 trillion in waste, fraud and abuse; however, budget analysts estimate that DOGE cut anywhere between $1.4bn to $7bn, largely through workforce firings.

Michael Peterson, CEO of the Peterson Foundation, said the CBO’s latest budget projection “is an urgent warning to our leaders about America’s costly fiscal path.”

“This election year, voters understand the connection between rising debt and their personal economic condition. And the financial markets are watching. Stabilising our debt is an essential part of improving affordability, and must be a core component of the 2026 campaign conversation.”

Winning bidders include Chevron, Eni, QatarEnergy and Aiteo.

Libya has assigned new oil and gas exploration rights to foreign firms, aiming to revamp the sector after years of civil strife.

The country’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) announced the results of its first licensing round since 2007 on Wednesday. Winners included US oil giant Chevron and Africa’s largest privately-owned energy company, Nigeria’s Aiteo.

Other winning bidders were consortia: Spain’s Repsol with British Petroleum, Eni North Africa with QatarEnergy, and Repsol with Hungary’s MOLGroup and Turkiye Petrolleri.

The licensing awards signal some renewed interest in Libya’s oil sector, which foreign investors had long been wary of after the country erupted into conflict in 2011 with the overthrow of longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi. But experts said the response was smaller than expected.

“It is likely that lingering uncertainty over Libya’s political dysfunction and insecurity in the areas around the blocks on offer were factors in the underwhelming response,” Hamish Kinnear, an analyst with UK-based risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, told the AFP news agency.

Libya remains politically divided between rival administrations in the east and west, and disputes over the central ‌bank and oil revenues often disrupt production at key oil fields.

‘Return of trust’

The licensing round, in which five of 20 blocks on offer were awarded, follows a $20bn deal last month with France’s TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips to boost oil production over 25 years.

Prime Minister Abdelhamid Dbeibah, who announced the deal, said the goal was to increase daily oil production by 850,000 barrels within that timeframe. Libya currently produces approximately 1.4 million bpd.

The round used a new, more investor-friendly contract model to replace the rigid terms that previously deterred investment.

NOC chief Masoud Suleman said a committee will be created to further “improve the terms” of the bidding system and negotiate with candidates to grant unallocated blocks.

Speaking at the bid’s announcement ceremony, he said “a return of trust and resuming institutional work in one of the country’s most important sectors after a long period of pause and challenges.”

“They are part of a broader national path that aims for prosperity, growth, the return of normalcy,” he added.