Bureau of Labor Statistics

Missed payroll expectations and revised April and May numbers put the Fed in a tough spot for rate cuts.

June’s employment numbers showed almost no change from the previous month, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 4.2% unemployment rate and an estimated 57,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, roughly half the 115,000 economists expected.

At the same time, the agency also revised April’s and May’s total nonfarm payrolls down by 31,000 and 43,000 jobs, respectively.

According to BLS data, the financial activities sector experienced no job growth in June, after losing 22,000 jobs in May and 43,000 from the end of January. Meanwhile, healthcare and social assistance added the most jobs in June, with 46,600. Among the sectors with the largest job losses were leisure and hospitality (-61,000), information (-9,000), and retail trade (-7,500).

Sunnier Number

“We know it’s taking people longer to find work, but there are also signs of labor supply constraints in certain industries,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, in the company’s National Employment Report for June. “For now, the overall effect is a slowdown in job creation.”

Using its proprietary methodology developed with Stanford Digital Economy Lab, ADP estimated that U.S. private employers added 98,000 jobs in June. Financial activities saw an increase of 14,000 jobs, placing it only behind education and health services (48,000) and trade, transportation, and utilities (15,000) in job creation.

Small businesses remain the largest source of hiring, with companies with 1-19 employees adding 38,000 new jobs. The companies with more than 500 employees added an additional 25,000 new positions. The companies that fell in between those sizes added 44,000 new jobs.

Doomed Rate Cuts

The revised April and May employment numbers and June’s lower-than-expected numbers reveal a softer labor market in the second quarter than previously thought. 

The new figures have created a headwind for the Federal Reserve on possible rate cuts, as inflation remains close to its 2% target, according to the authors of a blogpost on the Curzio Research website.

“But a slowing labor market argues for cuts to support growth before conditions deteriorate further,” they wrote. “That is why the revisions matter. Every policy decision is only as good as the data behind it. If the Fed is reacting to numbers that keep getting weaker after the fact, it risks staying tight for too long.”

Financial sector jobs grew in April, but a record wage gap challenges the industry’s recovery.

There might be a light at the end of the tunnel for job safety in commercial banking — or it could be the light of an oncoming train.

After more than 12 months of continuous job losses, commercial banks may be turning the corner. The ADP National Employment report for April 2026 noted that the financial activities sector grew by 9,000 positions, 5,000 more than the previous month.

The sector added the fourth-most jobs, behind education and health services (61,000); trade, transportation, and utilities (25,000); and construction (10,000). Only professional and business services saw a decline, with 8,000 jobs lost in April.

Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is both more bullish and bearish compared to the ADP findings. The BLS calculated that the economy added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, while ADP saw private sector employment increase by 109,000 jobs, based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees.

On the other hand, BLS noted that employment in financial activities “showed little change over the month.”

AI Warning

The slight upswing seen by ADP could be a reversal of monthly job losses in commercial banking from February 2025, according to research by KBRA Financial Intelligence (KFI). But there’s a catch.

“Recent declines have been markedly narrower than those recorded in 2023 and 2024, suggesting that a consolidation of the commercial banking workforce could be slowing, but the ongoing implementation of AI within the industry could continue to shrink headcount at some banks,” according to a KFI Insight report.

Growth Spurt

So, where’s the greatest job growth? At the smallest and largest organizations.

The micro/small (1-19 employees) and large enterprises (more than 500 employees) led in job growth,  with 43,000 and 42,000 positions, respectively. Only companies at the upper end of the mid-sized enterprise range (250-499 employees) cut, jettisoning 3,000 jobs in April.

“Small and large employers are hiring, but we’re seeing softness in the middle,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. “Large companies have resources to deploy, and small ones are the most nimble, both important advantages in a complex labor environment.”

Wage Worries

It’s not all good news. According to Bank of America Institute, which bases its numbers on aggregated and anonymized bank transaction data, unemployment payments continued to slow, but a large K-shape in wage growth continued into April.

“In April, higher-income households saw their after-tax wage growth rise to 6.0% year-on-year (YoY) — the highest rate we’ve observed since August 2021,” wrote the authors of the April 2026 Employment Report from the Institute.

“In fact, even within this cohort, there is a divergence, with after-tax wage growth for the highest 5% of households by income stronger than that of the rest of the higher-income cohort,” the authors noted.

“Middle- and lower-income households also saw increases in their after-tax wage growth in April, to 2.3% YoY and 1.5% YoY, respectively,” the researchers found. “But the gap between these cohorts and higher-income households remains at its widest level since our data series began in 2015.”