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NEW YORK — Calls inside Congress for investigations into the prediction market platform Polymarket are increasing after the latest instance in which groups of anonymous traders made strategic, well-timed bets on a major geopolitical event hours before it occurred.

On Wednesday, the Associated Press reported that at least 50 new accounts on Polymarket placed substantial bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire in the hours, even minutes, before President Trump announced it late Tuesday. These were the sole bets made on Polymarket through these accounts.

In January, an anonymous Polymarket user made a $400,000 profit by betting that Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro would be out of office, hours before Maduro was captured. In the hours before the start of the Iran war, another account made roughly $550,000 in a series of trades effectively betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei would be removed from office.

Such prescient wagers have raised eyebrows — and accusations that prediction markets are ripe for insider trading. And the issue goes beyond these three geopolitical events, according to at least one report.

Researchers at Harvard University released a paper last month in which, using public blockchain data, they estimated that $143 million in profits have been made on Polymarket by individuals who potentially had insider information about events ranging from Taylor Swift’s engagement to the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize last year.

Rep. Ritchie Torres, D-N.Y who sits on the House Financial Services Committee as well as the subcommittee on digital assets and financial technology, sent a letter Thursday to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission demanding the regulator review and investigate these well-timed trades. The CFTC regulates the derivatives markets, which includes prediction markets.

“This pattern raises serious concerns that certain market participants may have had access to material nonpublic information regarding a market-moving geopolitical event,” Torres wrote. The letter was shared exclusively with AP.

“What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement?” Torres said in an interview with AP. “There are two answers: God, or an insider trader. And something tells me that God is not placing bets around Donald Trump’s posts on Truth Social. “

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on everything from whether it will rain in Phoenix, Ariz., next week to whether the Federal Reserve will raise or lower interest rates.

Americans have limited access to Polymarket, which was banned from the U.S. in 2022. The company has moved to reenter the country by acquiring a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, giving it a legal pathway to start offering contracts domestically. The company has begun a limited rollout in the U.S.

Polymarket also operates a separate, crypto-based platform offshore that remains outside U.S. jurisdiction. That platform accounts for most of its activity.

Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., sent a letter to Polymarket on Thursday demanding the company explain why it continues to allow trades on war and violence as well as whether the company is making efforts to keep insiders from trading on the platform.

“Polymarket has become an illicit market to sell and exploit national security secrets unlike any in history, and by extension a potential honeypot for foreign intelligence services watching for those same suspicious bets and wagers,” Blumenthal wrote.

Republicans also have criticized these platforms and called for bans on these sorts of bets. There are at least two bills pending in Congress co-signed by both parties, one in the House and one in the Senate.

“We don’t want to imagine a world where America’s adversaries use prediction markets to anticipate our next move,” Rep. Blake Moore, R-Utah, said after the release of AP’s findings on the ceasefire wagers.

Polymarket did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

The stakes are high for both Polymarket and Kalshi as they seek approval to operate nationwide, particularly in the lucrative sports betting market.

Kalshi, which already is regulated in the U.S., and its executives have a goal of making the company the nation’s dominant prediction market. Kalshi has leaned heavily into sports, which critics have said effectively makes it a sports betting platform that dabbles in event-based contracts on the side. Both companies also announced partnerships with sports teams and even news organizations to broaden their reach as well. AP has an agreement to sell U.S. elections data to Kalshi.

The competition also carries political overtones. Donald Trump Jr. is an investor in Polymarket through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital, and separately serves as a paid strategic adviser to Kalshi.

Sweet writes for the Associated Press.

In the summer of 2025, Walt Disney Co. executives placed a big bet on a reality TV star prone to high drama: messy personal relationships and allegations of domestic violence.

Now, Disney’s ABC network could lose at least $70 million with a nearly finished season of “The Bachelorette” sitting on the shelf.

Last week, ABC yanked this season of “The Bachelorette,” which features 31-year-old Taylor Frankie Paul, just three days before the premiere episode was set to air Sunday night. Disney pulled the plug after the emergence of a three-year-old video that showed Paul — the protagonist of Hulu’s massive hit series, “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” — physically attacking her ex-partner.

Paul can be seen screaming and throwing metal chairs, one of which apparently struck one of her children who witnessed the altercation. Her onetime partner, Dakota Mortensen, recorded the video of the attack on his cellphone.

Trouble has been brewing around “The Bachelorette” for weeks as Paul was doing publicity for the show.

Draper City, Utah, police have separately confirmed an investigation into a subsequent domestic violence incident in February between Mortensen and Paul. As part of that inquiry, Paul, 31, has temporarily lost custody of the couple’s son, Ever, who turned 2 last week — the day the troubling video came out.

“Taylor is very grateful for ABC’s support as she prioritizes her family’s safety and security. After years of silently suffering extensive mental and physical abuse as well as threats of retaliation, Taylor is finally gaining the strength to face her accuser and taking steps to ensure that she and her children are protected from any further harm,” said a spokesperson.

Representatives of Mortensen could not immediately be reached for comment. In a statement to People magazine, a representative for Mortensen said that “his number one priority here is protecting” his son, Ever.

Last month, Disney requested an investigation to sort out Paul’s and Mortensen’s differing accounts of the February incident, according to people close to the situation who were not authorized to speak publicly about the sensitive situation.

The scandal has become the first big test for Dana Walden, who last week was installed as Disney’s president and chief creative officer — the day before the video showing a violent Paul was leaked to TMZ.

The episode has raised uncomfortable questions about why Disney made Paul the face of one of ABC’s marquee franchises.

It also has shined a light on the decision-making of Walden’s newly anointed ABC team: Debra OConnell, the chair of Disney Entertainment Television; Disney Television Group President Craig Erwich; and Rob Mills, Disney TV’s executive vice president of unscripted and alternative entertainment.

Disney declined to comment.

The network has not said whether it plans to eventually air Paul’s season of “The Bachelorette.”

But the network made a huge investment, paying a license fee of about $5 million an episode for the season to Warner Bros., said sources familiar with the matter. The season includes nine episodes and other programming elements, including a special that ran immediately after ABC’s Oscar telecast this month, which attracted 5.5 million viewers, according to Nielsen.

Dakota Mortensen, left, and Taylor Frankie Paul are stars of “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives.”

(Fred Hayes / Disney)

ABC also orchestrated a huge marketing blitz — billboards for the show had sprouted around the country, social media channels were crackling and Paul appeared on ABC’s stalwart “Good Morning America,” where she discussed her role on “The Bachelorette,” where she dated nearly two dozen men in search of her soulmate.

She also acknowledged simultaneously facing domestic abuse allegations, which she called a “heavy time.”

“For me, dating as a mom of three is extremely difficult,” Paul told ABC anchor Lara Spencer. “I was like, I get to go out, get away from my toxic cycle here in Utah, go date, and also have my kids come out and visit me. That to me seemed like, why not?”

Advertisers, including Cinnabon, have also pulled back in light of the controversy.

Viewers have long been fascinated by Paul, who earned notoriety on TikTok and formed a community there called MomTok. Her combative relationships added to the intrigue.

Hulu’s “The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives” has been a massive hit, developing a loyal following and an alternative to the “Real Housewives” franchise on the rival network, Bravo. A clip from the show was included in a Disney video montage of movies, TV shows and other headlining attractions shown to investors last week.

Mills and other Disney executives who oversee ABC and Hulu programming had been looking for ways to reinvigorate “The Bachelor” franchise, and they had taken notice after fans latched on to a playful video that Paul had posted on TikTok, expressing her desire to join the long-running ABC show, which is produced by Warner Horizon.

Comments posted about Paul’s video were intriguing, particularly for viewers who said that they would return to watch “The Bachelorette,” if it featured her.

“I flew out to Utah and met with her and she was serious [about joining],” Mills told The Times two weeks before the controversy. “Then I sent her roses the next day and said, “Would you be ‘The Bachelorette’ and the rest is history.”

Disney recognized that Paul’s relationship with Mortensen was messy.

Disney executives were aware of the altercation in 2023 and briefly debated internally whether to move forward with Paul in a prominent role in “Mormon Wives,” according to a source close to the situation but not authorized to comment. Paul is an executive producer on that show.

The first episode of the first season of “Mormon Wives,” which debuted in September 2024, featured Utah police bodycam footage from the February 2023 fight that was the subject of the just-released video.

The final moments of the most recent season ended with Paul and Mortensen sleeping together again, the night before she was scheduled to fly to L.A. to begin filming “The Bachelorette.” She missed her initial flight, but took a later flight.

Disney also has paused filming on “Mormon Wives” during production of its fifth season.

Over the show’s four-season run, there have been tensions among the castmates, which accelerated as Paul and the other wives pursued fame in other venues, including on ABC’s “Dancing with the Stars.”

When the recent allegations of domestic violence surfaced, castmates expressed concerns about working with her, which contributed to the decision to hire an outside law firm to investigate.

The firm was hired, at Disney’s request, by the show’s production firm, Jeff Jenkins Productions, based in Sherman Oaks.

Times Staff Writer Yvonne Villarreal contributed to this report.

March 16 (Asia Today) — A bold bet by a South Korean shipping heir on ultra-large oil tankers is paying off handsomely as the war involving Iran disrupts global energy markets and drives tanker demand sharply higher.

Bloomberg reported that Sinokor Merchant Marine, a major South Korean shipping company, positioned itself to profit from the crisis after securing a large fleet of very large crude carriers (VLCCs) months before the conflict escalated.

The strategy was led by Jeong Ga-hyun, a director at Sinokor Petrochemical and the son of Sinokor Chairman Jeong Tae-soon, according to the report.

Bloomberg described the move as an unprecedented large-scale bet in the global tanker market, executed well before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.

Tankers deployed to Gulf before war

On Jan. 29, weeks before the war erupted in late February, Sinokor reportedly deployed at least six empty VLCCs to the Persian Gulf, positioning them to wait for cargo.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz pushed tanker demand and charter rates sharply higher, the strategy began generating massive returns.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handling roughly 20% of global oil shipments.

Tanker rates surge to $500,000 a day

With oil exports disrupted and storage facilities across the Middle East filling rapidly, oil producers have increasingly turned to tankers as floating storage units.

According to Bloomberg, Sinokor is now chartering vessels for about $500,000 per day, roughly ten times last year’s average tanker rates.

Industry estimates suggest that by late February the company controlled around 150 VLCCs, representing roughly 40% of available tankers not already tied up in sanctions or long-term contracts.

Quiet heir behind massive shipping strategy

Jeong is known in the shipping industry as the low-profile heir to one of South Korea’s major maritime families.

Bloomberg reported that he rarely appears publicly and is known internally for a military-style management approach. Industry anecdotes even describe him challenging employees and business partners to arm-wrestling contests.

Oil supply disruptions reshape tanker market

The Iran war has dramatically altered global oil transportation patterns, forcing ships to reroute and increasing the need for offshore storage.

Under those conditions, Sinokor’s aggressive tanker acquisition strategy is now being viewed as one of the biggest winners of the crisis, Bloomberg said.

WSJ: Sinokor among winners of Hormuz crisis

The Wall Street Journal earlier identified Sinokor as one of the companies benefiting from the Strait of Hormuz tensions.

According to the newspaper, the company purchased dozens of oil tankers and deployed some of them to the Gulf region even before the conflict intensified.

Sources told the Journal that Sinokor is leasing several vessels to ADNOC, the United Arab Emirates’ state-owned oil company, to be used as floating storage facilities.

These vessels can earn up to $500,000 per day in charter fees, the report said.

As land-based storage in Gulf oil-producing countries approaches capacity, producers have increasingly stored crude at sea. Drilling firms in Iraq and Kuwait have even slowed production due to storage shortages.

The WSJ also noted that Greek shipping magnate George Prokopiou adopted a similar strategy, sending at least five tankers to the Strait of Hormuz through his company Dynacom, which is reportedly earning up to $440,000 per day – about four times pre-war rates.

— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI

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Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260316010004394