accession

EXPLAINER

With almost all votes counted, the ‘no’ side was ahead by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent, the national broadcaster says.

Voters in Iceland have rejected a proposal to resume negotiations on joining the European Union, dealing a setback to the government’s push for closer ties with the 27-country bloc.

With almost all votes counted, the “no” side was ahead by 52.5 percent to 47.5 percent, according to national broadcaster RUV. Official results have not been announced yet.

The result is not a vote on EU membership itself, but on whether Iceland should reopen accession negotiations that were suspended more than a decade ago.

The government had argued that renewed talks could help Iceland confront growing economic and geopolitical pressures, including tensions over Arctic security.

Opponents of accession instead focused on protecting Iceland’s fishing waters and general sovereignty-related issues that would arise if the country became part of the bloc.

Here is what you need to know:

What was the vote about?

The referendum asked Icelanders a simple question: Should Iceland resume accession negotiations with the European Union?

It was not a vote on whether Iceland should actually join the EU. A “yes” result would have allowed the government to restart negotiations with Brussels. Any eventual agreement on membership would then have been put to voters in another referendum.

In 2009, Iceland applied to join the EU, following a financial crisis that severely affected its economy. Negotiations were suspended in 2013 after a eurosceptic government came to power.

Technically, the referendum result is nonbinding, but the coalition government headed by Social Democratic Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir has vowed to respect the result.

What was the result of the vote?

The “no” side won, according to RUV, with 52.5 percent against 47.5 percent for “yes”. Some votes from one constituency were still pending, but they were not expected to change the result.

The outcome represents a setback for Frostadottir’s government, which had presented the referendum as a “now or never” moment for the EU debate.

What’s the debate in Iceland on joining the EU?

The debate has largely centred on the economy, fishing rights and the cost of living.

The most important argument put forward by opponents against membership was the fate of the country’s fishing industry, a major part of Iceland’s economy.

Gudrun Hafsteinsdottir, the opposition leader who campaigned for the “no” vote, rejected claims that Brussels could solve Iceland’s economic problems.

“These are not problems that Brussels will solve for us. These are problems that Icelandic politicians must solve,” she said.

Supporters, however, argued EU membership could help address Iceland’s high inflation and interest rates. Iceland’s central bank rate is eight percent, compared with 2.25 percent at the European Central Bank.

Some also saw adopting the euro as a potential source of economic stability. Nevertheless, Iceland already has close economic links with the EU.

It belongs to the European Economic Area and the Schengen free-travel zone, giving it access to the EU’s single market without being a member.

What triggered the referendum?

The EU debate gained urgency because of a changing geopolitical environment surrounding Arctic countries. Iceland is a NATO member, but has no military of its own and depends heavily on its allies for defence.

However, the country’s left-leaning coalition government, elected in 2024, moved up the EU referendum it had planned for next year after US President Donald Trump mistakenly named the country four times while speaking about his policy towards Greenland.

The government argued that closer ties with Europe could provide Iceland with greater protection and strengthen its position amid growing tensions in the region.

Frostadottir said the campaign had raised discussion about Iceland’s place in the world and its broader geopolitical position.

“We’ve been waiting for this for years to be able to have a vote,” Frostadottir said, adding ⁠⁠that her government would continue its work regardless of the outcome.

What happens next?

It is unlikely that Iceland will resume EU accession negotiations during the current government’s term, which runs until 2028.

The government had already said it would respect a “no” vote. It is also expected to refer to parliament the question of whether Iceland should formally withdraw its EU membership application.

For now, Iceland will remain outside the EU while continuing its existing relationship with the bloc through the European Economic Area and Schengen.

Progress for Kyiv’s membership bid given the green light after Hungary’s new government lifts Budapest’s veto.

The European Union has announced that the accession process for Ukraine and Moldova will launch next week.

At a meeting in Brussels on Friday, ambassadors from the 27 EU nations agreed to officially recommence negotiations with the two countries in Luxembourg on Monday.

EU leaders agreed to open accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova in December 2023. However, negotiations were paused due to opposition from Hungary, led at the time by pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, to Kyiv’s membership bid.

Both Kyiv and Chisinau view EU membership as additional security against Russian aggression. Moscow insists that maintaining control over its “near abroad” – its term for the post-Soviet states – is key to its national security.

“All member states agreed to open the first accession negotiations cluster with Ukraine and Moldova,” European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a joint social media post.

Hungary’s new government, which took power in May, agreed last week to drop Orban’s veto, allowing the accession process to resume.

“This is a recognition of the determination, courage and hard work shown by both countries in advancing reforms, even in the face of immense challenges,” Costa and von der Leyen said.

“Enlargement is a strategic choice,” they said, adding, “In a world marked by growing uncertainty, a larger European Union is in our common interest.”

Entry negotiations with Kyiv were formally opened in June 2024, kickstarting a complex process that usually takes years and involves negotiations on everything from agriculture to the rule of law.

The move was largely symbolic, intended as a powerful show of support for Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.

New Hungarian Prime Minister Peter Magyar struck a deal with Kyiv on the rights of Ukraine’s Hungarian ethnic minority last week. The issue has long been a sticking point between the neighbouring countries.

But Magyar has said Hungary does not support a fast-track procedure for Ukraine to join the EU.

He said Budapest will hold a referendum on Ukraine’s membership, should it “succeed in closing all 33 accession chapters within the next 10 to 15 years”.

Talks will begin on Monday with the opening of the “fundamentals” section of the process, Costa and van der Leyen said in their statement.

This covers basic principles such as rule of law that the two candidate countries will be expected to adhere to.