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Russia’s heavy missile barrage directed against Ukraine on the night of January 20 appears to have involved the use of several new or unusual weapons. Various sources, unofficial and official, point to the possible use of a new version of the Iskander short-range ballistic missile (SRBM), as well as the rarely employed Zircon hypersonic cruise missile. Wreckage recovered in Ukraine also confirms, for the first time, Russia’s use of repurposed missile targets for air defenses in a land-attack role.

According to a report from the Ukrainian Air Force Command, a total of 34 missiles of various types were used in the raid, along with 339 drones, approximately 250 of which were Shahed/Geran-series types. Ukraine claims that 14 of 18 ballistic missiles launched from Iskander and S-300/S-400 systems, 13 of 15 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched from strategic bombers, and 315 of 339 long-range drones were destroyed.

Note: The missile shown at the top of this story is the S-400 surface-to-air missile, a weapon which is also used in a land-attack capacity.

Based on Ukrainian accounts, Russia used an improved version of the Iskander to strike at least one target in the Vinnytsia region, deep inside Ukraine, on the night of January 20. While this is yet to be independently confirmed, it has also been reported by Russian media.

Reports began to emerge last year that Russia was poised to start mass-producing a new version of the Iskander SRBM, with greater range and improved accuracy. The original 9K720 Iskander-M’s solid-fuel 9M723 ballistic missiles have, according to official figures, a range of 500 kilometers (310 miles), although there is evidence that they can fly further than that.

The new version, the name of which is unknown, is assumed to have a range of at least 1,000 kilometers (620 miles), resulting in it being unofficially dubbed Iskander-1000. Ukrainian authorities also refer to the new weapons as Iskander-I.

Regardless, the reported range would put the new missile in the medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) category. MRBMs are categorized as ballistic missiles with maximum ranges between 1,000 and 3,000 kilometers (620 and 1,860 miles), while SRBMs can reach out to between 300 and 1,000 kilometers (190 and 620 miles).

This is, reportedly, the only known photo of the so-called Iskander-1000, taken during tests:

According to available reports, the longer-range Iskander uses a more powerful and efficient engine to increase its range; a reduced-size warhead would be another way to help achieve this, providing more space for fuel. Accuracy is meanwhile enhanced by a new navigation and guidance system. This is assessed to include a new inertial guidance system (INS), supplemented by Glonass satellite navigation, and perhaps a radar seeker for the terminal phase. This is said to provide for an accuracy of within 16 feet. No information is available on the warhead.

Like the earlier Iskander, the Iskander-1000 is likely to be able to perform high-G maneuvers in the terminal phase and to dispense decoys, to better evade air defenses.

Examples of the decoys deployed by the 9M723 ballistic missile:

Also relevant here is the emergence of reports about the Iskander-1000 after the termination by the United States of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF). This had previously prohibited the Soviet Union (later Russia) and the United States from fielding any ground-launched conventional or nuclear-capable missile of any type that can hit targets between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (310 and 3,420 miles) away.

The demise of INF frees Russia from such restrictions, including on versions of the Iskander. As such, the Iskander-1000 would not only have significance in the conflict in Ukraine (being able to strike targets in the west of the country) but also against NATO in Europe. If launched from the Kaliningrad exclave, the Iskander-1000’s range would cover almost the entire Baltic Sea region, all of Denmark, and most of Germany.

Speaking to the Russian daily newspaper Moskovskij Komsomolets, “military consultant” Anton Trutze said that the Iskander-1000 (coupled with the Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile) ensured “superiority over Soviet capabilities in the class of operational-tactical missiles, which were once limited by the INF Treaty.” The result for Russia, he claimed, was “a serious argument in operational and political terms.”

Another theory is that the ballistic missile reported as the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I was something else altogether.

Ukrainian authorities state that Russia launched a Zircon hypersonic missile from occupied Crimea. This weapon, designed primarily for anti-shipping, has previously been combat-tested in Ukraine. According to the U.S. Strategic Command, the Zircon is capable of traveling at speeds of up to Mach 8.

In February 2024, evidence emerged that Russia had, for the first time, used the Zircon in attacks on at least one target in Ukraine. Ukrainian scientists showed a video of the Zircon wreckage — “fragments of the engine and steering mechanisms [with] specific markings,” seen below:

According to Ukrainian media reports, the Zircon was launched toward Vinnytsia. With this in mind, it’s possible that the Zircon was misreported as an Iskander-1000/Iskander-I, although these are very different weapons. By all accounts, the Iskander-1000/Iskander-I is a ballistic missile, while the Zircon, while still mysterious, is known to be a hypersonic cruise missile, likely with a ramjet powerplant. Such a mix-up would be puzzling, but it remains possible.

More concrete evidence is available concerning the use of another Russian missile on the night of January 20.

This is the RM-48U, which was developed as a target missile for the training of S-300 and S-400 air defense system crews. The RM-48U is fired from the same launchers and is based on reworked 5V55 or 48N6 missiles, as used by these systems, after they reach the end of their service lives.

Debris showing parts clearly marked as RM-48U was found after the raid, as seen in the composite below.

This is the first time since the start of the full-scale war that the RM-48U has been fired against Ukraine, according to the country’s Main Intelligence Directorate, which assesses that Russia currently has approximately 400 of these missiles in its inventory.

What’s unclear at this point is whether the target missile was fitted with a warhead, turning it into a true land-attack weapon, or if it was fired together with ballistic missiles as a decoy, helping to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.

According to Alexander Kovalenko, from Ukraine’s Information Resistance Group, the RM-48U missiles can have a range of between 30 and 120 kilometers (19 to 75 miles), depending on how they are modified.

Kovalenko assumes that the RM-48Us are retrofitted with warheads to make up for the lack of regular ballistic missiles, specifically Iskanders. Kovalenko said that Russia is likely capable of producing only around two 9M723 missiles (for the Iskander system) per day. Back in September 2022, Ukrainian intelligence sources claimed that only 13 percent of Russia’s pre-war stocks of Iskander ballistic missiles were left, forcing it to find other solutions.

Based on the estimated range, however, even the higher-end figure, the RM-48U is hardly an adequate substitute for an Iskander. Also, considering their original role, the accuracy of the RM-48U is likely poor, making them only suitable for very short-range strikes against area targets — or as decoys.

Russia already makes use of missiles as decoys, including time-expired air-launched cruise missiles, with their previous nuclear warheads removed. You can read more about that trend here.

At the same time, there is also a long-established precedent for using S-300 and S-400 air defense systems to fire their standard surface-to-air missile effectors against ground targets in Ukraine. The S-300 does possess a little-known surface-to-surface capability, although it is far from accurate in this role.

Finally, the same missile barrage provided evidence of very recently manufactured Kh-101 cruise missiles, which are launched from Tu-95MS Bear-H and Tu-160 Blackjack bombers. At least one of the Kh-101s reportedly downed by Ukrainian air defenses indicates that it was manufactured in the first quarter of 2026. The use of such a recent missile further underscores how Russia has depleted its stocks of older weapons, a situation that we have discussed in the past and which is exacerbated by sanctions that have disrupted its ability to produce precision weapons at scale. Considering just how new the Kh-101 in question is, it shows that Russia is meanwhile using them in a ‘just in time’ fashion, as soon as they roll off the production line.

Цієї ночі застосовані Х-101 2026 року випуску. Прямо з заводу. Тому будь який екстра вплив на доступність компонентів дає ефект.

This night, Kh-101 missiles manufactured in 2026 were used — straight from the factory. That’s why any additional pressure on the availability of… pic.twitter.com/yIRqTayCk9

— Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺 (@vladvlas) January 20, 2026

Taken together, these missile developments indicate that Russia is continuing to vary the mix of weapons (ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, drones), and also decoys, in its large-scale attacks on Ukraine. At the same time, the use of both brand-new missiles and repurposed target missiles points to general shortages of purpose-designed missiles and decoys.

For Ukraine, however, whether new or old, the sheer numbers of missiles and drones that Russia continues to bombard it with ensure that its hard air defenses remain very much under pressure. This is a particular concern when the supply of Western-supplied air defense systems remains strictly limited, and with the biting winter months making life especially difficult for its civilian population.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Tehran, Iran – The Iranian state has rejected a resolution by the United Nations’ Human Rights Council that strongly condemned the “violent crackdown on peaceful protests” by security forces that left thousands dead.

After a detailed meeting and discussions in Geneva on Friday, 25 members of the council, including France, Japan and South Korea, voted in favour of the censure resolution.

Seven votes against, including from China, India and Pakistan, as well as 14 abstentions, among others from Qatar and South Africa, failed to stop the resolution.

The human rights council called on Iran to stop the arrests of people in connection with the protests, and to take steps to “prevent extrajudicial killing, other forms of arbitrary deprivation of life, enforced disappearance, sexual and gender-based violence” and other actions violating its human rights obligations.

Iran said that the Western-led sponsors of the emergency meeting on Friday had never genuinely cared for human rights in Iran, or else they would not have imposed sanctions that have devastated the Iranian population over the past decade.

Ali Bahreini, Iran’s envoy in the meeting, reiterated the state’s claim that 3,117 people were killed during the unrest, 2,427 of whom were killed by “terrorists” armed and funded by the United States, Israel and their allies.

“It was ironic that states whose history was stained with genocide and war crimes now attempted to lecture Iran on social governance and human rights,” he said.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) says it has confirmed at least 5,137 deaths during the protests, and is investigating 12,904 others.

UN special rapporteur on Iran, Mai Sato, has said the death toll could reach 20,000 or more as reports from doctors from inside Iran emerge. Al Jazeera has been unable to independently verify the figures.

UN human rights chief Volker Turk told the council that “the brutality in Iran continued, creating conditions for further human rights violations, instability and bloodshed” weeks after the killings on January 8 and January 9, when a communications blackout was also enforced.

Turk pointed out that executions for murder, drug-related and other charges continue across Iran, with the state executing at least 1,500 people in 2025, marking an enormous 50 percent increase compared with the year before.

Payam Akhavan, a professor and former UN prosecutor of Iranian-Canadian nationality who was at Friday’s meeting as a civil society representative, called the killings “the worst mass-murder in the contemporary history of Iran”.

He said as a prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal in the Hague, he had helped draft the indictment for the Srebrenica genocide in which some 8,000 Bosniaks were killed in July 1995.

“By comparison, at least twice that number had been killed in Iran in half the time. This was an extermination,” he said.

The adopted UN council resolution also extended the mandate of the special rapporteur for another year, while adding two more years to the mandate of the independent fact-finding mission that was formed to investigate killings and rights abuses during Iran’s nationwide protests in 2022 and 2023.

More videos emerge despite internet blackout

Meanwhile, the internet blackout continues to be enforced amid growing frustration and anger from the public and businesses alike.

Global internet observatory Netblocks reported that international internet remained effectively blocked on Saturday despite brief moments of connectivity.

Some users have been able to overcome the digital blackout over recent days for short periods of time using a variety of proxies and virtual private networks (VPNs).

The limited number of users who have managed to get online, whether by using a combination of circumvention tools or leaving the country’s borders, continue to upload horrifying footage of killings during the protests.

International human rights bodies like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch have attested that many of the reviewed videos show state forces firing live ammunition at protesters, including from heavy machineguns.

The state rejects all such accounts, claiming that security forces only fired at “terrorists” and “rioters” who attacked government offices and burned public property.

Threat of war looms

The back and forth over one of Iran’s bloodiest chapters since its 1979 revolution continues as the threat of war looms large over the embattled 90-million-strong nation once again.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene in Iran if it kills protesters. Washington is moving the USS Abraham Lincoln supercarrier, along with its strike group of supporting vessels, towards the Middle East in a move that has raised fears of more US strikes on Iran in the aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel in June.

More US military aircraft, including fighter jets, have also been deployed to the region despite interventions from regional powers in an attempt to prevent an escalation.

Top Iranian authorities continue to send defiant messages to US President Donald Trump amid the rapid military buildup.

“He [Trump] certainly says many things,” Majid Mousavi, the new aerospace chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), told state television on Saturday. “He can be certain that we will respond to him in the field of battle”.

“He can say better things even if he is trying to escape the wishes of others who want to impose things on him,” said Ali Shamkhani, a top security official and representative of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the newly formed Supreme Defence Council.

One of Iran’s top judicial authorities also shot back at Trump after the US president last week called for the end of Khamenei’s 37-year-rule in the country.

“These acts of insolence and audacity are, in our view, tantamount to a declaration of all-out war, and based on this approach, in the event of any aggression, US interests around the world will be exposed to threat by supporters of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” said Mohammad Movahedi, the hardline cleric who heads the prosecutor general’s authority.

Australia has taken the next step in its wide-ranging program to overhaul its air force with the arrival of its first MC-55A Peregrine. The platform, configured for “airborne intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and electronic warfare” (AISREW), is a highly modified version of the Gulfstream G550 business jet, an increasingly popular choice for adaptation for these kinds of specialist missions.

Aviation photographer @airman941 shared with TWZ photos of the arrival of the MC-55 at RAAF Base Edinburgh, South Australia, its future home base. The jet touched down there at 3:53 p.m. local time today, after a multi-leg delivery flight that took it from the L3Harris facility in Greenville, Texas, to Australia via stopovers at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, Arizona; Hickam Air Force Base, Hawaii; Wake Island; and Andersen Air Force Base, Guam.

The MC-55, which is still wearing its U.S. civilian test registration N584GA, is one of four currently on order for the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF), supposedly the third to be built. On its tailfin, the jet already wears the marking of its operating unit, No. 10 Squadron, which previously flew the AP-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft, including the RAAF’s secretive electronic warfare versions.

In 2017, the U.S. State Department gave approval for Australia to purchase up to five of the modified jets, plus their specialized systems. Two years later, Canberra announced the AISREW program, confirming the $1.6-billion acquisition of four of the modified G550 aircraft under Project AIR 555.

By the spring of 2022, the first MC-55 was spotted flying test sorties from Gulfstream’s plant in Savannah, Georgia, as you can read about here.

The MC-55’s comprehensive AISREW suite is reflected in the numerous antennas around the fuselage as well as the huge belly ‘canoe’ and bulbous tail cone containing additional sensors. An unidentified dome projects from below the tail. Below the fuselage, an extensive antenna ‘farm’ likely serves electronic and communications intelligence-gathering and communications relay functions. Other standout features of the modification include a satellite communications array in the dorsal position and a prominent satcom antenna fairing atop the tailfin.

Unlike certain other G550 conversions, the MC-55 lacks the conformal ‘cheek’ fairings that contain active electronically scanned array (AESA) antennas, as found on the U.S. Navy’s NC-37B range tracking jet and the U.S. Air Force’s EA-37B Compass Call, for example.

The aircraft is also intended to serve as a networking relay and data-fusion platform. In this way, it will serve as a node within Australia’s joint warfighting network, linking together aircraft such as the F-35A, E-7A Wedgetail, and EA-18G Growler, as well as Royal Australian Navy surface combatants and amphibious ships, and ground forces.

This would involve the MC-55 creating an ‘active net’ across the battlespace, which would also cover lower flying drones and networked cruise missiles, for example, as well as everything else. Such a function is similar to that provided by the U.S. Air Force’s E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node, or BACN, fleet.

Details of the various sensors have not been revealed, but in the past, we speculated that the belly ‘canoe’ and bulbous tail cone likely contain AESA arrays, which would be used for standoff electronic attacks, as well as intelligence-gathering. Potentially, the antenna below the belly could be multi-function, since AESA radars can be used for both pinpoint electronic attacks as well as for sensing and communications. This could possibly include being used for ground mapping and ground-moving target indication (GMTI) functions, although arrays that are more finely tuned to the electronic attack role seems most likely.

On the other hand, it could be the case that the MC-55 will serve primarily as a passive intelligence-collection platform, without AESAs or other active electronic warfare emitters. Nevertheless, the tail and the large ventral antenna fairings make this less likely.

Regardless of its precise functions, it’s clear that the MC-55 is intended as a multirole aircraft, encompassing a variety of functions that would have previously been distributed across discrete platforms. Putting all of this into a relatively small airframe is aided by advances in miniaturization, more powerful sensors, and the ability to transmit data to other nodes, in near real-time, using high-bandwidth satellite datalinks.

Even the U.S. Air Force’s new EA-37B, which can perform both electronic intelligence-gathering and electronic warfare missions, is likely less flexible than the MC-55. Notably, contractor L3Harris Technologies is responsible for integrating the mission systems on the EA-37B and the MC-55.

Ultimately, the MC-55 has been tailored to meet the requirements of what Australia has dubbed its “fully networked fifth-generation air force.”

Central to this effort is a major expansion of the RAAF’s electronic warfare and ISR capabilities, which we discussed at length in this past TWZ feature. In this regard, Australia has very much taken a lead when it comes to operating at the cutting edge of the radio-frequency spectrum.

It’s worth noting that the RAAF’s key crewed combat aircraft, the F-35A and F/A-18F Super Hornet, are both well-equipped with electronic warfare self-protection equipment, while the EA-18G is a specialist in the field of electronic attack. The opportunity to have all of these and more working closely with the MC-55 as part of a wider electronic attack and electronic intelligence collection ecosystem is significant.

Another area in which the RAAF is playing a pioneering role is in the introduction of Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA).

Australia has already acquired eight MQ-28A Ghost Bat drones, all pre-production prototypes, also referred to as Block 1 aircraft. The service previously awarded Boeing a contract to deliver at least three more examples in the improved Block 2 configuration.

So far, the RAAF has tested the E-7 as a control platform for the MQ-28, including in multi-ship formations. In the future, the MC-55 would also appear to be an ideal platform for this kind of crewed-uncrewed teaming. While the MQ-28 has been used to test-fire the AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM), electronic warfare is also seen as a very likely future mission. As such, the drone could carry electronic payloads into more contested airspace, working collaboratively with the MC-55, which is not a highly survivable asset. Controlled from aboard the MC-55, the drones could extend the crewed aircraft’s reach, as well as provide an extended-range self-protection escort function.

Operating out of RAAF Base Edinburgh, the home base of the service’s Surveillance and Response Group (SRG), also known as No. 92 Wing, the MC-55 will certainly work closely with maritime surveillance aircraft, in the shape of the P-8A Poseidon (co-located at the same base) and the MQ-4C Triton high-altitude long-endurance drone. At one time, MQ-9B Sky Guardian drones were also planned to join the SRG, before Australia canceled its order and redirected funds elsewhere.

Outside of Base Edinburgh, dedicated MC-55 support facilities are planned for RAAF Base Darwin in the Northern Territory, RAAF Base Townsville in Queensland, and on the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, ensuring even greater regional coverage and operational flexibility.

With the growing Chinese military threat in the Indo-Pacific region, evidenced by an increasing number of incidents involving the Australian Defense Force and China’s military, the MC-55 will almost certainly be used to keep tabs on this potential adversary. The aircraft’s ISR capabilities mean it will be well-suited to surveilling Chinese military expansion and monitoring Beijing’s activities in the Indo-Pacific and elsewhere. In this regard, the option to operate the MC-55 out of the Cocos Islands, deep in the Indian Ocean, approximately midway between Australia and Sri Lanka, will be especially valuable.

The MC-55 looks set to be one of, if not the most prized, low-density, high-demand assets within the RAAF. It also points to the Gulfstream bizjet as being among the platforms of choice for these kinds of modifications. Platforms like these are becoming increasingly cost-effective, thanks in no small part to steady improvements in jet engine technology, and their popularity has been proven out by continued new orders.

Whether Australia buys more MC-55s remains to be seen. At one time, five were planned, but the program has also suffered from delays. Previously, the first example had been slated for delivery in 2022.

For the time being, however, the Royal Australian Air Force will be looking forward to the introduction to service of its first MC-55A Peregrine, an aircraft that is set to radically enhance its wider ISR and electronic warfare capabilities.

With thanks to @airman941 for sharing photos with us. You can find more of his work here.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Donald Trump’s latest attempt to seize Greenland shows that the president is willing to use US force to determine international borders, even at the expense of sovereignty.

Western allies – NATO countries included –  publicly formed a united front, but private messages have revealed a more deferential approach to dealing with Trump.

This latest crisis may have been averted, but the question remains: Does the so-called rules-based international order apply to Trump?

Contributors: 
Louise Bokkenheuser – Writer and editor
Branko Marcetic – Staff writer, Jacobin
Anchal Vohra – Columnist, Foreign Policy
Ulrich Bruckner – Professor for European studies, Stanford University

On our radar:

Donald Trump launched his highly-publicised “Board of Peace” initiative at the World Economic Forum in Davos this week.

The signing ceremony followed a familiar pattern for this White House – a carefully staged event centred on Trump, his overblown claims of peacemaking, and speeches in praise of him. But the turnout appears to have fallen short of the hype.

A conversation with Ellie Leonard

Trump’s Justice Department was ordered to publish documents from the Epstein files more than a month ago. Only 1% of the heavily redacted material has been made public.

While the Trump administration floods the zone with news that mainstream outlets have been chasing, an unconventional team of investigators is digging into the Epstein files to see what’s there. They are led by online investigator Ellie Leonard in New York City.

Featuring: 

Ellie Leonard – Contributing editor, Blue Amp Media

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing an ambitious trade diversification strategy aimed at reducing Canada’s heavy reliance on the United States and positioning the country as a leader in a new, more flexible global trading order. Triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy and threats against allies, Carney has accelerated efforts to forge new economic partnerships, including a rare recent trade deal with China. His approach goes beyond that of many Western allies, reflecting a belief that the traditional, U.S.-led rules-based trading system is fragmenting.

Carney’s trade vision:
Carney has openly argued that multilateral institutions and global trade rules are being eroded, making smaller “plurilateral” agreements between select countries more viable than broad global deals. He has cast Canada as a bridge between the European Union and Pacific Rim economies and pledged to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade. Diplomatic outreach to countries long peripheral to Canadian trade policy including Qatar, Ecuador, Indonesia, and the UAE signals a deliberate effort to widen Canada’s economic map.

China as a necessary partner:
China has emerged as a central, if controversial, pillar of Carney’s strategy. As Canada’s second-largest trading partner, Beijing offers the scale required to meaningfully offset U.S. dependence. Carney’s assertion that China has become a more “predictable” partner than the United States underscores Ottawa’s frustration with Washington, but it has raised alarms among trade experts. Economists warn that deeper integration with China risks exposing Canadian industries to market flooding and long-term strategic vulnerabilities, particularly as Chinese exports are increasingly redirected away from the U.S. to other markets.

Limits of diversification:
Despite diversification efforts, the United States still absorbs close to 70% of Canadian exports—far more than the EU’s roughly 20% exposure to the U.S. market. Analysts note that reducing U.S. export share by even 10% would require Canada to double exports to multiple large economies simultaneously, an extraordinarily difficult task. Energy trade illustrates the challenge: while Ottawa hopes to expand oil exports to Asia, about 90% of Canadian crude continues to flow south of the border.

Comparisons with Europe:
The European Union’s parallel push to diversify trade through deals with Mercosur, Indonesia, and renewed talks with India and Southeast Asia highlights both inspiration and contrast for Canada. Europe’s lower baseline dependence on the U.S. gives it greater room to manoeuvre, whereas Canada’s economy remains deeply integrated with U.S. supply chains. Ongoing negotiations over the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement further limit how aggressively Canadian firms are willing to pivot away from the American market.

Expanding the deal pipeline:
Carney has markedly increased the pace of trade diplomacy. Canada has concluded agreements with Ecuador and Indonesia, signed investment deals with the UAE, and restarted talks with India after a diplomatic freeze under the previous government. According to Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu, Ottawa is now targeting the Philippines, Thailand, Mercosur, Saudi Arabia, and India, aiming to complete multiple agreements in a timeframe that traditionally yielded just one deal per year.

Analysis:
Carney’s strategy reflects a clear-eyed assessment that U.S. economic leadership can no longer be taken for granted. His emphasis on plurilateralism and diversification is politically resonant and strategically necessary, but structurally constrained. Canada’s geography, supply chains, and energy infrastructure tie it to the U.S. in ways that cannot be rapidly undone. Engagement with China may provide short-term relief and bargaining leverage, yet it introduces its own economic and strategic risks. Ultimately, Carney’s bid to shape a new trade order is less about replacing the United States than about buying insurance against American volatility. Whether that insurance proves sufficient will depend on how quickly Canada can translate diplomatic activism into durable, balanced trade flows.

With information from Reuters.

A deal engineered by U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) allowing Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to leave the prison from where they have been under siege by Syrian government forces is a move that will protect U.S. troops in that country, a U.S. official told The War Zone Friday morning. There are still about 1,000 U.S. troops in Syria, tasked with continuing the fight against ISIS, the official added.

The Syrian government has been battling the Kurdish-led, U.S.-backed SDF fighters for weeks as it tries to assert its control over the entire country after the December 2024 overthrow of dictator Bashar Al-Assad. The government wants to subsume SDF into its own security apparatus. That fighting, said the official, is allowing ISIS greater freedom of movement. Two U.S. Army soldiers and an interpreter were killed last month in an ISIS ambush.

The deal to allow SDF fighters to leave Raqqah is an effort to keep a fragile truce, which expires Jan. 24, from falling apart, the official noted. The truce was arranged on Jan. 20 in an effort to stop the bloodshed between the government and SDF after a previous ceasefire broke down.

“In a rare sign of goodwill in Syria, Syrian President Al Sharaa agreed to allow 800 SDF fighters and civilians safe passage from Raqqah to Kobani,” said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss operational details. “SDF were holed up for the last week in the Raqqah prison, where they sought temporary refuge in the fighting. Earlier today, a convoy of more than 160 vehicles arrived safely in Kobani, a traditionally Kurdish region.”

“The deal was brokered by U.S. Central Command as a measure to cool things down in Syria after weeks of intense fighting between the Syrian Government and SDF,” the official added. CENTCOM declined comment.

The safe passage decision comes as U.S. troops have elevated security concerns as they transport some 7,000 ISIS prisoners from Syria to Iraq, a highly complex operation. CENTCOM has carried out three waves of attacks against ISIS leaders in the wake of the deadly ambush, called Operation Hawkeye Strike, and U.S. officials are wary of retaliation.

US Launches ‘Operation Hawkeye Strike’ In Syria After ISIS Attack Kills American Troops | 4K

“We are closely coordinating with regional partners, including the Iraqi government, and we sincerely appreciate their role in ensuring the enduring defeat of ISIS,” CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper said earlier this week. “Facilitating the orderly and secure transfer of ISIS detainees is critical to preventing a breakout that would pose a direct threat to the United States and regional security.”

Continued fighting between the two groups would imperil U.S. troops, the official explained.

“We don’t want to put U.S. troops in the middle” of fighting “between the Syrian government and the SDF,” said the official. “It would have fomented further instability and violence that would have made an already complex operation transferring ISIS prisoners even more challenging.”

The official declined to offer specifics of how the transfer is being carried out, but said that the U.S. is “looking to do it in days, not weeks.”

All this comes as CENTCOM has been working to ease tensions between the Syrian government and the SDF. That group has been a major ally against ISIS, but has also been embroiled in fighting against not just the government, but Turkish-led forces in the north as well, adding to regional instability.

“We have been working to support the negotiated integration of SDF forces into Syrian government forces,” the official posited; however, several previous such efforts have broken down and hostilities resumed. For his part, SDF leader Mazloum Abdi expressed optimism about this latest ceasefire.

“We convened a productive and constructive meeting in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq with U.S. Ambassador [to Turkey] Tom Barrack and Admiral Brad Cooper, Commander of U.S. Central Command,” Abdi explained on X. “The support of the United States and President Trump’s policy for the ceasefire [is] of utmost significance and greatly appreciated. Additionally, Ambassador Barrack’s commendable efforts to facilitate dialogue and negotiations between us and the Syrian government are serious, essential and highly valued. We will diligently and with all our capabilities work to achieve genuine integration and maintain the current ceasefire.”

U.S. forces in Syria are mostly based in the northeast, but there is also a base in southern Syria, called Al-Tanf, located along the borders of Jordan and Iraq. U.S. forces across Syria have been subjected to attacks by Iranian-backed militias as well as ISIS, prompting frequent kinetic responses.

The current level of U.S. troops in Syria is about half what it was a year ago, when a U.S. official told us there were plans to drastically reduce the American footprint in that country. There may be a new effort underway that would eliminate the U.S. military presence from the country, where America and allies have been battling ISIS since it took over large swaths of land in Syria and Iraq in 2014.

“Washington is considering a complete withdrawal of American troops from Syria,” The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday, citing anonymous U.S. officials. CENTCOM declined comment about that story when we asked.

The potential of having no troops in Syria raised alarms by some Republican senators worried that the lack of a U.S. presence in that country would create a dangerous security risk.

“Wow, if true, ISIS would love that,” Lindsey Graham (R-SC) exclaimed on X. “A small footprint of Americans working with locals is an insurance policy against the reemergence of ISIS and an attack on our homeland. I believe it’s time for a new approach and new eyes on Syria. I am confident that many senators – on both sides of the aisle – share my concerns about the implications of withdrawal when Syria is so unstable.”

Reducing the number of troops in Syria has been a goal of U.S. President Donald Trump. He called for a sudden, complete withdrawal during his first term in 2019, however, that was never fully implemented before he left office.

Whether Trump can pull off removing all U.S. forces from Syria during his second term remains to be seen. The country is still a very volatile place in a strategic area bordering Israel, Jordan, Iraq and Turkey that has seen many parties wage hostilities there. And, as long as ISIS remains a force in Syria, it will continue to foster instability.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

Protests in Iran have petered out. Tens of thousands have been arrested. And those accused of supporting the unrest have had business assets seized and are being pursued on “terrorism” charges. The authorities – for now – have reasserted control.

Yet, in the shadow of the apparent calm, the very same grievances that sparked the unrest remain, leaving Iran with little choice but to make tough compromises to win sanctions relief and fix the economy or face further upheaval, experts say. With a battered economy, a weakened network of regional allies and the looming threat of a US attack, Iran is at a crossroads.

“This is not a stable status quo – it’s just not tenable,” said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. “I am not predicting that the system will hit rock bottom tomorrow, but it’s in a spiral and from this point on, it can only go down if it refuses to change”.

The recent demonstrations erupted in late December when protests over a currency collapse morphed into a nationwide upheaval calling for the overthrow of the Islamic republic – Iran’s system of governance.

The authorities’ response led to one of the most violent confrontations since the country’s 1979 revolution.

Iranian state media said the protests had left 3,117 people dead, including 2,427 civilians and members of the security forces. US-based human rights activists say that more than 4,500 people have been killed. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the figures.

Economic crisis

Protests in past years, such as the unrest sparked by a fuel price hike in 2019 or the women-led demonstrations in 2022, were followed by the state dispensing subsidies and loosening up on social restrictions. But this time around, it has limited options for addressing the distress that sparked the recent demonstrations.

Due to decades of international sanctions, as well as mismanagement and corruption, the Iranian rial’s value has nose-dived, and oil revenues have shrunk. Inflation last year peaked at more than 42 percent, according to International Monetary Fund data. By comparison, the rate was at 6.8 in 2016 – a year after Iran and world powers signed a deal that curbed Iran’s nuclear activities in exchange for sanctions relief. US President Donald Trump pulled out of the deal in 2018 – during his first term in office – and reimposed sanctions.

On top of that, Iran suffers from electricity outages and chronic water shortages, making life increasingly difficult for the average citizen.

To get some sanctions relief, Iran needs to negotiate a deal with the Trump administration. But that would require Khamenei making concessions on what have been Iran’s core foreign policy pillars, namely its nuclear programme, ballistic missiles and supporting a network of allies across the region.

They have been key components of Iran’s “forward defence” strategy – a military doctrine aimed at preventing fighting from reaching Iranian territory. Changes to any of these elements would represent a profound shift in the security architecture built up by Khamenei. While in the past, the supreme leader has shown openness to partially curbing the nuclear programme, concessions over missiles and the so-called axis of resistance have been non-negotiable.

“It is unclear whether Iran is willing to formally accept restrictions” on these three elements, said Mohammad Ali Shabani, an Iran analyst and editor of news site Amwaj.media. “As Trump has threatened a renewed bombing campaign if Iran resumes enrichment, Khamenei seems paralysed in his decision-making,” he added.

Trump has said that he wants Iran to dismantle its nuclear infrastructure entirely, an option that Iran has ruled out, insisting that its enrichment programme is for civilian purposes.

Concerning support for non-state actors in the region, Iran has been working on reconfiguring that network following the war last June with Israel, said Halireza Azizi, visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Israel has, in the past few years, degraded the arsenal and decapitated the leadership of what was Iran’s strongest ally in the region, Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Non-state actors in Iraq have become more involved in that country’s political system and, therefore, more cautious, and the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has collapsed. And finally, Iran itself was directly attacked by Israel, the first time it has faced a full-scale attack from its chief regional enemy.

After that war, a heated debate on the actual benefit of working with non-state actors ensued in Iran, Azizi said. The argument that prevailed was that Iranian soil had been struck only after regional allies were weakened, and not before.

“So the policy 1769252794 is to double down and try to revive that network” with some modification, Azizi said.

The focus, he said, has shifted to working with smaller groups in Iraq, find new ways to transfer weapons to Hezbollah and rely more on the Houthis in Yemen. It is too soon, and information is too limited, to assess whether the protests and the threat of a US strike have changed that calculus, but official channels indicate that there have been no modifications.

Is change inevitable?

Talks between Iran and the US are not off the table. At the height of the protests, tensions soared after Trump hinted that he was about to strike Iran over what he said was Iran’s brutal crackdown. But he toned down the rhetoric after Gulf Arab nations pushed him to refrain from attacking Iran – a move they fear would plunge the region into chaos.

On Thursday, Trump signalled that channels between Washington and Tehran were open. “Iran does want to talk, and we’ll talk,” he said during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

But his remarks came as the US moves military assets to the Middle East, likely an attempt to strong-arm Iran into a deal. “We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use them,” Trump said on Friday.

Still, should Iran end up making major concessions, the perception of security and legitimacy may be hard to restore. For years, the implicit social contract between the Iranian people and the system has been based on the guarantee of security at the expense of social and political freedom. But that pillar of legitimacy was shattered by last year’s war with Israel, when at least 610 people were killed in Iran over 12 days.

“The social contract between state and society in Iran has withered over the decades, and with the disruptions to basic services over the past year amid electricity and water crises, the provision of security is now also under question,” Shabani said. “To ensure its longevity, the Islamic Republic is thus faced with the broader challenge of having to explain to the public what it can provide, and why it must continue to exist”.

According to Azizi, a transformation has already started with the political system moving from a clerical into a military leadership as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – an elite force established after the 1979 Islamic Revolution – has grown into the country’s most powerful economic and political actor.

“After the death or removal of Khamenei, we are not going to see the Islamic Republic as we know it,” Azizi said.

“Whether that it’s gonna give more impetus to the people to come to the streets to initiate regime change, or it’s going to result in a Soviet-style scenario of regime transformation with the security establishment reemerging in a different form, that is an open question, but change is inevitable.”

The armed wing of Hamas, Al-Qassam Brigades, released a video message on Wednesday afternoon showing an Israeli captive currently held in Gaza, the Palestinian Information Centre has reported. The footage shows Omri Miran lighting a candle on what he described as his “second birthday” in captivity.

“This is my second birthday here. I can’t say I’m celebrating; it’s just another day in captivity,” said Miran. “I made this cake for the occasion, but there is no joy. It’s been a year and a half. I miss my daughters and my wife terribly.”

He addressed the Israeli public directly, including his family and friends. “Conditions here are extremely tough. Thank you to everyone demonstrating to bring us home safely.”

The captive also urged Israelis to stage a mass protest outside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence. “Bring my daughters so I can see them on TV. Do everything you can now to get us home. Netanyahu’s supporters don’t care about us, they’d rather see us dead.”

Screengrab from footage shows Israeli captive Omri Miran

He asked captives released in previous prisoner exchange deals to protest and speak to the media. “Let the people know how bad it is for us. We live in constant fear of bombings. A deal must be reached soon before we return home in coffins.

Miran urged demonstrators to appeal to US President Donald Trump to put pressure on Netanyahu: “Do not believe Netanyahu. Military pressure is only killing us. A deal — only a deal — will bring us home. Turn to Trump. He seems to be the only powerful person in the world who could push Netanyahu to agree to a deal.”

He also mentioned the worsening humanitarian situation: “The captors told me the crossings are closed; no food or supplies are coming in. As a result, we’re receiving even less food than before.”

In conclusion, the captive sent a pointed message to the Israeli leadership: “Netanyahu, Dermer, Smotrich, Ben Gvir — you are the reason for 7 October. Because of you, I am here. Because of you, we’re all here. You’re bringing the state to collapse.”

READ: US synagogues close their doors to Israel MK Ben-Gvir

More than a dozen states sound the alarm, declaring emergencies or urging people to stay home.

More than 8,000 flights set to take off over the weekend have been cancelled as a major storm bears down across the United States, threatening widespread heavy snow and a band of catastrophic ice stretching from east Texas to North Carolina.

At least 3,400 flights were delayed or cancelled on Saturday, according to the flight tracking website FlightAware, and more than 5,000 were called off for Sunday.

Roughly 140 million people from New Mexico to New England were under a winter storm warning, as forecasters say damage, especially in areas pounded by ice, could rival that of a hurricane.

Snow fell ‍over parts of Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas on ‍Friday ahead of a winter storm expected to converge with bitter Arctic cold and engulf much of the US over the weekend.

“This is a mean storm,” Jacob Asherman, a meteorologist at the US Weather Prediction Center in Maryland, told Reuters news agency. He said it was the biggest so far this ​season in terms of intensity and scope.

Life-threatening wind-chill readings had plunged to below minus 45 degrees Celsius (minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit) in the Dakotas and Minnesota. The meteorologist warned that exposure to such cold without proper clothing “can lead to hypothermia very, very quickly”.

The ‍worst was predicted for parts ⁠of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee, where ice up to an inch thick was likely to coat tree limbs, power lines and roadways, Asherman said.

Governors in more than a dozen states sounded the alarm, declaring emergencies or urging people to stay home. Texas Governor Greg Abbott told residents on X that the state Department of Transportation was pretreating the roads and urged residents to “stay home if possible”.

Utility companies braced for power outages because ice-coated trees and power lines can keep falling long after a storm has passed.

President Donald Trump said via social media on Friday that his administration was coordinating with state and local officials and that the Federal Emergency Management Agency was “fully prepared to respond”.

The storm represents the ‍first major test for New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who took office just weeks ago.

He told local news station NY1 on Friday that the city’s sanitation workforce would transform into “the nation’s largest snow-fighting operation” in advance of the heavy snowfall expected on Sunday.

Caracas, January 23, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan healthcare workers marched to the United Nations (UN) headquarters in Caracas on Thursday to demand the release of President Nicolás Maduro and First Lady Cilia Flores following their kidnapping by US forces on January 3.

During the march, nurse Betsy Caraballo emphasized her desire for the president’s return “to continue with his public policies,” particularly those focused on the healthcare sector. 

“The empire must release him because this was a kidnapping. He is a constitutional president and the people are calling for his return,” she told reporters. Multiple grassroots and sectoral organizations have staged marches in recent weeks to support Maduro and Flores while condemning their kidnapping.

Upon reaching the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) office, the demonstrators, accompanied by Nicolás Maduro Guerra, the president’s son and National Assembly deputy, delivered a letter addressed to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk.

The letter urged the UN official to publicly condemn both the violation of international law principles and the infringement of Maduro and Flores’ personal immunity and integrity. It also demanded the immediate release of both officials by the United States government.

A day earlier, renowned Argentine professor and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Adolfo Pérez Esquivel requested that UN Secretary-General António Guterres urgently establish a commission to investigate the conditions of detention and treatment of the Venezuelan president and the first lady, who is also an elected legislator.

In his communication, Pérez Esquivel stressed that this expert human rights commission must safeguard the well-being of Maduro and Flores following their “kidnapping” in an operation that “violated Venezuela’s sovereignty.”

Washington’s January 3 attacks saw military and civilian sites bombed in Caracas and surrounding areas, killing over 100 people. Maduro and Flores were indicted on charges including drug trafficking conspiracy, and both pleaded not guilty in their arraignment hearings on January 5. The trial will resume on March 17.

US officials have never presented evidence of the involvement of high-ranking Venezuelan officials in narcotics activities, while specialized agencies have consistently found the Caribbean nation to play a marginal role in global drug trafficking.

Diplomacy for resolving “differences”

US officials followed the January 3 military operation by imposing conditions on the Venezuelan oil industry and vowing to control crude sales for an indefinite period. Simultaneously, Caracas and Washington have moved forward in the reestablishment of diplomatic ties.

Venezuelan Acting President Delcy Rodríguez has repeatedly defended the importance of diplomacy. During a televised broadcast on Wednesday, Rodríguez pledged to engage with US counterparts with “no fear.”

“We are in a process of dialogue with the US, with no fear of facing our differences, from the most sensitive to the least sensitive ones, through diplomacy,” she stated. Venezuelan leaders have sought to highlight the legacy of independence hero Simón Bolívar as a guiding principle for diplomatic efforts.

For his part, US President Donald Trump praised the ongoing relationship with the Venezuelan authorities on Thursday aboard Air Force One, hailing Rodríguez for demonstrating “very strong leadership.”

Trump’s comments followed a Wednesday White House announcement that Rodríguez is expected to make an official visit to the US, although “no date has been set.” The purported official trip would be the first by a Venezuelan president to the US in over a quarter-century.

At the same time, the White House continued its Venezuela policies with the appointment of diplomat Laura Dogu as chargé d’affaires at the US Venezuela Affairs Unit, based in Colombia. This unit has been responsible for managing relations between the two countries since the suspension of diplomatic relations in 2019.

Dogu, who is lined up to take over as ambassador if ties are restored, began her diplomatic career in the 1990s. She has served as an ambassador to various Latin American countries over the last decade and succeeds John McNamara, who had held the post since February 2025. McNamara traveled to Venezuela earlier this month to discuss the potential reopening of the US embassy with Venezuelan authorities.

Venezuela suspended diplomatic relations with the US in 2019 after the Trump administration recognized the self-proclaimed “interim government” led by Juan Guaidó as the country’s legitimate authority. Embassies and consulates have remained closed since then. Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello recently stated that efforts to reopen the embassies are “progressing.”

The Trump administration’s January 3 attacks drew domestic criticism and renewed congressional efforts to curtail the White House’s use of military force abroad. However, a War Powers Resolution failed to garner a majority in the House of Representatives on Thursday. A previous initiative was likewise narrowly defeated in the Senate.

Air France and KLM announce pauses as Trump says ‘armada’ of US warships heading towards Middle East.

At least two European airlines have suspended flights to cities in the Middle East, with Air France saying it will temporarily stop service to Dubai as it continues to monitor the “geopolitical situation”.

Dutch airline KLM also halted flights until further notice to cities in Israel, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia and would not fly through the airspace of several countries in the region, including Iraq and Iran, according to the Netherlands’ state broadcaster NOS.

France’s national carrier Air France told the AFP news agency in a statement on Friday that it was making the changes “due to the current situation in the Middle East”, adding that “the company has decided to temporarily suspend its service to Dubai”.

“Air France is monitoring the situation in real time and will provide further updates on its flight schedule,” the French airline said.

KLM told public broadcaster NOS on Friday that it had suspended flights until further notice to Tel Aviv, Dubai, Dammam and Riyadh and would not fly through the airspace of Iraq, Iran, Israel and several countries in the Gulf.

The airline did not disclose the reason for the suspensions and said it was in touch with Dutch authorities, according to NOS.

The latest flight disruptions come as United States President Donald Trump said on Thursday that a “big force” of US warships he described as an “armada” was heading towards the Gulf region, days after appearing to back away from threats of military action against Iran over a recent crackdown on antigovernment protests.

“We’re watching Iran,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One as he flew back from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“You know we have a lot of ships going that direction, just in case … We have a big force going toward Iran,” he said.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s second caption reads:

U.S. Navy Adm. Rich Correll, commander, U.S. Strategic Command, enters a launch control center at Malmstrom Air Force Base, Montana, Dec. 15, 2025. Correll took command of USSTRATCOM on Dec. 5, 2025, after serving as the deputy commander for three years. Malmstrom is the first missile base he has visited in his new position. (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st Class Jack Rodriguez Escamilla)

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

Hundreds of businesses in Minnesota shut their doors on Friday and thousands of protesters turned out in the frigid cold as part of an economic protest against the immigration crackdown in the state.

The widespread rallies come after organisers encouraged residents to skip work or school and refrain from shopping in a show of opposition to US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

The ICE operation ordered by Trump administration in the state have been going on for more than six weeks.

The administration has characterised it as a public safety operation aimed at deporting criminals illegally in the country. Critics warn migrants with no criminal record and US citizens are being detained too.

On Friday, about 100 clergy members were arrested at the Minneapolis airport while holding a protest calling on US airlines to refuse to transport detainees arrested by ICE.

A spokesman for the airports commission told the Minnesota Reformer that the arrests took place after the “permitted activity went beyond agreed upon terms” and was to done to protect the public safety and airport access.

Thousands of federal officers have been deployed to Minnesota as part of “Operation Metro Surge”.

The killing of 37-year-old Minneapolis woman Renee Good earlier this month flared tensions across the state and brought condemnation from local officials.

“We want ICE out of Minnesota, and we want ICE out of every state, with their extreme overreach,” said Bishop Dwayne Royster, whose organisation Faith in Action is supporting local partners in Minneapolis during the strike. “We want Congress to stand up and provide oversight to ICE.”

Friday’s marches are thought to be the largest display of opposition to date to the current immigration policy in the state, as thousands of people walked downtown through temperatures of -10F (-23C).

As they made their way to the city’s NBA arena to hold an anti-ICE rally, taking place on the home court of the Minnesota Timberwolves, protesters chanted and played music.

On Friday morning, Minneapolis resident Corey Lamb closed his business, Harriet Grove Botanicals, in solidarity and headed to a protest. He objected to the presence of ICE agents in his city, and was outraged by Good’s death in early January.

He also saw the immigration raids as an economic threat to his business, and others in his community.

“We have a lot of friends that we rely on, we have a lot of businesses that we rely on, in order to make our business work,” Lamb told the BBC.

“When those individuals are struggling because they’re afraid of being detained or disappeared, it has an effect not only morally but economically on what’s going on here, and also in the greater Midwest.”

Lamb’s business was joined by hundreds of others, from restaurants and tattoo parlours to toy stores.

Kim Bartmann is the owner of six restaurants in Minneapolis, including four that remain open in the winter but that she shut on Friday.

While she supports the cause, she said the decision to participate had been a tricky one, given the costs.

“Everyone is in solidarity, but everyone needs to buy groceries and pay their rents,” she said, noting that staff at one of her locations had initially asked to stay open, before deciding the risk of backlash over not participating would be too great.

“Economically, it is a severe blow to my business,” she said.

She said sales at her restaurants, which include Barbette and Gigi’s Café, have already dropped more than 30% over the past three weeks as a result of the ICE operation, which has prompted her to limit her opening hours as customers and staff stay home.

“We have a lot of employees who are US citizens or have paperwork to work in the US who are still terrified to leave their homes,” she said.

ICE’s presence has outraged many of Minnesota’s residents, who have protested against their operations and other federal officers operating in their city.

This week, school officials in the suburb of Columbia Heights announced that four of their students had been detained by ICE, ranging from ages five to 17.

A two-year-old child was also detained on Thursday, while driving home from a grocery store with her undocumented father in south Minneapolis, according to CBS, the BBC’s US partner.

In a speech on Thursday, Vice-President JD Vance called for local Minnesota law enforcement to coordinate with federal officers to carry out immigration enforcement.

Minnesota, and some of its cities, have so-called “sanctuary” policies, which limit the ways that local government and law enforcement cooperates with ICE. The Trump administration has criticised these policies as a threat to public safety.

Meanwhile, a Minneapolis FBI agent resigned this week over concerns about the bureau’s handling of the investigation into Good’s shooting, CBS News, the BBC’s US partner, reported. The New York Times was first to report the resignation.

Tracee Mergen left “in part due to the pressure on her to reclassify/discontinue the investigation” over Good’s death, CBS News reported, citing sources.

The BBC has contacted the FBI for comment.

Earlier this month, US media reported that at least six prosecutors in the Minneapolis US Attorney’s office resigned over the administration’s handling of the federal investigation.

French prosecutors say Russia-linked tanker ‘Grinch’ under investigation after interception in western Mediterranean.

The French navy has diverted an ‍oil tanker, suspected of being part of Russia’s sanctions-busting “shadow fleet”, ‍towards the port of Marseille-Fos for further investigation, according to reports.

The office of the ​prosecutor in the southern French city of Marseille, which handles matters related to ‌maritime law and is investigating the case, said on Friday that the ship had been diverted, but did not specify where to.

A source close to the case told the AFP news agency that the tanker is expected to arrive on Saturday morning at the port of Marseille-Fos in southern France.

The ‘Grinch ‘ tanker was intercepted by French naval forces on Thursday while on the high seas in the western Mediterranean, between the southern coast of Spain and the northern coast of Morocco, France’s maritime police said in a statement.

It added that navies of other countries, including Britain, supported the operation.

Video footage released by the French military of the operation showed a unit of soldiers descending from a helicopter onto the deck of the Russia-linked ship. The boarding of the vessel involved a navy boat and two navy helicopters, according to reports.

The Grinch, which was sailing under a Comoros flag, left the Russian Arctic port of Murmansk in ​early January and is suspected of operating under a ‍false flag and of belonging to the secretive fleet of ships that enables Russia to export oil around the world despite international sanctions due to Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

The AFP news agency reported that a ship called “Grinch” is under United Kingdom sanctions, while another named “Carl” – with the same registration number – is sanctioned by the United States and European Union.

Prosecutors in Marseille said they were investigating the ship’s alleged failure to confirm its nationality.

The EU has ‌imposed 19 packages of sanctions against Russia, but Moscow has adapted to most measures ‌and continues to sell millions of barrels ⁠of oil to countries such as India and China, typically at discounted prices.

Much of the oil, which is key to financing its war in Ukraine, is carried by what is known as ‌a shadow fleet of vessels operating outside of Western maritime industry regulations.

In October, France detained another Russian-linked sanctioned tanker, the Boracay, off its ‍west coast and released it after a few days.

The Boracay’s Chinese captain is to stand trial in France in February over the crew’s alleged refusal to cooperate with investigators, according to French judicial authorities.

These are the key developments from day 1,430 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, January 24:

Fighting

• Four people were killed and five were injured in Russian attacks on Cherkasy, in an area of Ukraine’s Donetsk region that is still controlled by Ukraine, Governor Vadym Filashkin said on the Telegram messaging app.
• Filashkin said that Russian forces shelled settlements in the Donetsk region 10 times over the past day, and that 109 people, including 17 children, were evacuated.
• Russian forces attacked the village of Komyshuvakha in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region with glide bombs and other weapons, killing one person, regional Governor Ivan Fedorov said.
• Russian forces launched drones at Kherson city and several villages in the Kherson region over the past day, killing one person and injuring two others, the regional military administration said.
• Russian forces killed a 72-year-old man and injured two others, including a child, in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region, the head of the regional military administration, Oleksandr Hanzha, said.
• Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down 76 Russian drones of 101 launched towards Ukraine over the past day.
• Several people were injured in Ukrainian attacks across front-line Russian areas and Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, including five people injured on a bus in Russia’s Belgorod region, according to Russia’s TASS state news agency.
• The General Staff of Ukraine’s military claimed that Ukrainian forces hit a fuel depot and radar facilities, causing a fire, at the Penzanefteproduct fuel depot in Russia’s Penza region.
• The Russian Ministry of Defence said that its forces captured the village of Symynivka, situated about 47km (29 miles) northeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city.

Ukraine-Russia-US talks

• The first day of trilateral talks involving negotiators from the United States, Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi concluded late on Friday night, the Ukrainian presidency said in a post on X, adding that talks would continue on Saturday.
• Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a statement after Friday’s talks, saying “it is still too early to draw conclusions” about the substance of the negotiations.

• “By now, our team should already have at least some answers from Russia,” said Zelenskyy. “We will see how the conversation develops tomorrow and what results it produces,” he added.
• Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said on X that the meeting had “focused on the parameters for ending Russia’s war and the further logic of the negotiation process aimed at advancing towards a dignified and lasting peace”.
• The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Affairs said on Friday that the talks were scheduled to last for two days “as part of ongoing efforts to promote dialogue and identify political solutions to the crisis”.
• Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov told reporters that talks between US and Russian officials on the eve of the Abu Dhabi meeting were “substantive, constructive and very frank”.

• Ushakov said that Russian Admiral Igor Kostyukov would be leading Moscow’s team in Abu Dhabi, and investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev would meet separately on economic issues with Steve Witkoff, the envoy of US President Donald Trump.

Energy Crisis

• Maxim Timchenko, the head of Ukraine’s top private power producer DTEK, told the Reuters news agency that the energy situation in Ukraine was nearing a “humanitarian catastrophe” following repeated Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
• Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s state grid operator, says there are emergency power outages in most regions of the country following Russia’s latest aerial attacks.

Regional Security

• The Swedish Air Force said on Friday that it “intercepted two Su-35S escorting a Tu-22M [Russian military aircraft] over the Baltic Sea” on Thursday.
• France’s navy redirected the oil tanker “Grinch” to the port of Marseille-Fos for inspection, suspecting it is part of a “shadow fleet” of vessels Russia uses to export sanctioned oil, according to Reuters.

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has deployed a military radar in the Somali region of Puntland as part of a secret deal, amid Abu Dhabi’s ongoing entrenchment of its influence over the region’s security affairs.

According to the London-based news outlet Middle East Eye, sources familiar with the matter told it that the UAE had installed a military radar near Bosaso airport in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region earlier this year, with one unnamed source saying that the “radar’s purpose is to detect and provide early warning against drone or missile threats, particularly those potentially launched by the Houthis, targeting Bosaso from outside”.

The radar’s presence was reportedly confirmed by satellite imagery from early March, which found that an Israeli-made ELM-2084 3D Active Electronically Scanned Array Multi-Mission Radar had indeed been installed near Bosaso airport.

READ: UAE: The scramble for the Horn of Africa

Not only does the radar have the purpose of defending Puntland and its airport from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, but air traffic data reportedly indicates it also serves to facilitate the transport of weapons, ammunition, and supplies to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), further fuelling the ongoing civil war in Sudan.

“The UAE installed the radar shortly after the RSF lost control of most of Khartoum in early March”, one source said. Another source was cited as claiming that the radar was deployed at the airport late last year and that Abu Dhabi has used it on a daily basis to supply the RSF, particularly through large cargo planes that frequently carry weapons and ammunition, and which sometimes amount to up to five major shipments at a time.

According to two other Somali sources cited by the report, Puntland’s president Said Abdullahi Deni did not seek approval from Somalia’s federal government nor even the Puntland parliament for the installation of the radar, with one of those sources stressing that it was “a secret deal, and even the highest levels of Puntland’s government, including the cabinet, are unaware of it”.

READ: UAE under scrutiny over alleged arms shipments to Sudan

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has deployed a military radar in the Somali region of Puntland as part of a secret deal, amid Abu Dhabi’s ongoing entrenchment of its influence over the region’s security affairs.

According to the London-based news outlet Middle East Eye, sources familiar with the matter told it that the UAE had installed a military radar near Bosaso airport in Somalia’s semi-autonomous Puntland region earlier this year, with one unnamed source saying that the “radar’s purpose is to detect and provide early warning against drone or missile threats, particularly those potentially launched by the Houthis, targeting Bosaso from outside”.

The radar’s presence was reportedly confirmed by satellite imagery from early March, which found that an Israeli-made ELM-2084 3D Active Electronically Scanned Array Multi-Mission Radar had indeed been installed near Bosaso airport.

READ: UAE: The scramble for the Horn of Africa

Not only does the radar have the purpose of defending Puntland and its airport from attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, but air traffic data reportedly indicates it also serves to facilitate the transport of weapons, ammunition, and supplies to Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), further fuelling the ongoing civil war in Sudan.

“The UAE installed the radar shortly after the RSF lost control of most of Khartoum in early March”, one source said. Another source was cited as claiming that the radar was deployed at the airport late last year and that Abu Dhabi has used it on a daily basis to supply the RSF, particularly through large cargo planes that frequently carry weapons and ammunition, and which sometimes amount to up to five major shipments at a time.

According to two other Somali sources cited by the report, Puntland’s president Said Abdullahi Deni did not seek approval from Somalia’s federal government nor even the Puntland parliament for the installation of the radar, with one of those sources stressing that it was “a secret deal, and even the highest levels of Puntland’s government, including the cabinet, are unaware of it”.

READ: UAE under scrutiny over alleged arms shipments to Sudan

The US has completed its withdrawal from the World Health Organization, ending its membership for the first time since 1948. Officials blamed WHO’s COVID-19 response, halted funding and limited future engagement, prompting warnings about global health risks.

We have what appears to be the first look at one of two new Gulfstream 700 (G700) VIP jets for the U.S. Coast Guard. The jet notably has a livery almost identical to that of a 737 Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) with a luxurious VVIP interior and clear ties to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) rather than a more typical Coast Guard paint scheme.

Aviation photographer Lennon Popp took a picture of the G700, seen at the top of this story, at Savannah/Hilton Head International Airport in Savannah, Georgia, on Tuesday. This airport is home to Gulfstream’s main headquarters and manufacturing facility. The aircraft was using the callsign Gulf Test 96 (GLF96) at the time. What the timeline might be for formal delivery of the jet, if that has not already occurred, is unclear. The Coast Guard said in the past that it hoped to have the jets in hand no later than December 31, 2025. TWZ has reached out to DHS and the Coast Guard for more information. The Coast Guard currently falls under the purview of DHS.

The G700 acquisition does look to be proceeding on a very fast schedule, but what tradeoffs this may require is unknown. DHS and the Coast Guard only confirmed the order for the jets, referred to as Long Range Command and Control Aircraft (LRCCA), last October. The Coast Guard’s present LRCCA fleet consists of a C-37A and a C-37B, which are based on older and out-of-production Gulfstream V and G550 models, respectively. Various Gulfstream models are also in service across the U.S. military and with other U.S. government agencies, but none of them currently operate 700-series types.

The existing LRCCAs are regularly used as a VIP transport for the Secretary of Homeland Security (currently Kristi Noem) and other senior departmental leaders, as well as top Coast Guard leadership. The jets also have a role in larger continuity of government planning to ensure U.S. authorities can keep functioning in the event of a host of different severe contingency scenarios, including major hostile attacks and devastating natural disasters.

What is immediately eye-catching in Popp’s picture is the G700’s paint scheme, which is white over blue with red and gold cheat lines. The DHS seal is also painted on the side of the fuselage just behind the main cabin door, and the Coast Guard seal is seen on the side of the engine nacelle. “United States of America” is written in large lettering on the side of the fuselage, and there is a large American flag, depicted blowing in the wind, on the side of the tail.

In contrast, the Coast Guard’s two existing LRCCAs have a different livery. They are overall white with orange and blue bands around the forward end of the fuselage, similar to what’s found on all of the other fixed-wing aircraft the service operates.

As noted, the G700’s livery is virtually the same as the one that appeared unexpectedly on the 737 Boeing Business Jet (BBJ) last month. We will come back to that aircraft, which carries the U.S. civil registration number N471US, later on. The paint scheme seen on N471US and now on the G700 is also very similar to what President Donald Trump had picked for the forthcoming pair of Boeing 747-8i-based VC-25B Air Force One aircraft during his first term. President Joe Biden subsequently reversed that decision, going back to the same iconic, Kennedy-era livery worn by the current VC-25A Air Force One jets that the VC-25Bs are set to replace. Last August, the Air Force told Inside Defense it was “implementing a new livery requirement for VC-25B,” but did not offer any further details.

The Coast Guard has shared some details about how the G700 LRCCAs will otherwise be configured.

“Gulfstream (as the OEM [original equipment manufacturer]) is the only vendor capable of acquiring G700s under a secure, strict, and time-sensitive process,” according to a formal justification for the sole-source contract that the Coast Guard posted online last October. “DHS and USCG require exacting follow-on cabin refresh, next generation satellite connectivity, and open the potential for a secure command and control communications suite to replicate capabilities of the C-37B.”

The document specifically mentions “Starshield installation” as part of the communications suite for the G700s. Starshield is a more secure cousin to SpaceX’s commercial Starlink space-based internet service intended for government customers. Starshield and Starlink have become increasingly ubiquitous across the U.S. military, including in support of tactical operations, and other U.S. government agencies, in recent years. This underscores SpaceX’s preeminent position in the satellite internet and communication marketspace, as well as when it comes to other space-related services, as you can read more about here.

“The G700 provides a combination of increased range, speed, seating capacity, and enhanced avionics in comparison to a used G550,” the justification document adds. “While a G550 is capable, it is no longer in production and USCG is at the mercy of the re-sell [sic] market to grow the LRCCA fleet in the required time.”

DHS and Coast Guard officials have stressed these points repeatedly in the past year in arguing for the need to modernize the LRCCA fleet. Members of Congress have previously leveled significant criticism on DHS, and Secretary Noem more specifically, over the plans to buy new jets, the total cost of which has been said be between $170 and $200 million. The price of a base model G700 before any alterations, painting, and other work is done is generally set at around $70 to $80 million.

Disputes over the allocation of funding and the decision to order the jets during a protracted government shutdown have drawn particular ire from some legislators. DHS has seen a huge boost in its total budget in the past year.

A Joint Explanatory Statement report accompanying a draft Homeland Security spending bill making its way through Congress right now includes a new demand for monthly updates detailing the use of the Coast Guard’s LRCCA fleet. Among other things, those status reports must include “for official travel, the nexus to a statutory Department of Homeland Security mission and justification for [the] trip” and “any alcoholic beverages consumed on the flight and the source of such beverages.”