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Middle Eastern crises seldom stay localized. They frequently go well beyond the battlefield in terms of politics, strategy, and psychology. Officials in Beijing, Moscow, Taipei, and Kyiv will be keeping a tight eye on events surrounding Iran today, in addition to those in Tehran, Washington, and Tel Aviv. Power perceptions are shaped by situations like this, and in international politics, perception can be almost as important as actual power.
The current state of affairs presents an unsettling question for China and Russia. A large-scale military operation against a prominent regional actor will unavoidably send signals about the balance of power in the international system if it continues without significant opposition from other big states. The Middle East is not where those signals will end. They will visit other geopolitical hotspots, like Taiwan and Ukraine, where credibility is crucial to deterrence.
Iran has progressively evolved into more than simply another diplomatic friend in Beijing’s eyes. It now plays a part in China’s larger Eurasian economic and strategic strategy. Beijing has been building energy and transportation networks that connect western China to the Arabian Sea through projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Chinese planners considering long-term energy security have taken note of the geographical proximity of the Pakistani port of Gwadar to Iran’s Jask Oil Terminal.
Beijing has long sought variety, which these lines provide. Chinese strategists have been concerned about dependence on maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca for decades. The energy lifelines of the second-largest economy in the world could be threatened by any interruption there. Iran fits into China’s attempt to lessen that vulnerability because of its location and resources. Trade in energy has already strengthened ties between the two nations. Iran has quietly emerged as a major supplier of cheap crude to China in spite of U.S. sanctions. Both nations are able to avoid some aspects of the Western financial architecture since many of those transactions go through China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System and are settled in renminbi.
However, the partnership has grown beyond oil. Beijing and Tehran signed a long-term strategic agreement in 2021 with the goal of working together on infrastructure, energy, and technology for decades. Later, China backed Iran’s admission to groups like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Then came a diplomatic surprise: Beijing assisted in mediating the reestablishment of ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, a development that surprised many Western observers.
Taken together, these actions indicated a significant development. China was starting to portray itself not only as a regional economic force but also as a diplomatic player with the ability to influence its political environment.
That ambition makes the current moment particularly sensitive for Beijing. Governments in the Middle East and a large portion of the Global South frequently evaluate great powers based on their actions during times of crisis rather than their words during times of peace. Some capitals may discreetly reevaluate how reliable such support would be in an actual security crisis if China seems unwilling to protect the strategic environment surrounding its alliances.
The ramifications go well beyond Iran. Chinese officials have made it clear time and time again that they would not support Taiwan’s formal independence efforts and will not allow outside meddling in the Taiwan Strait. The legitimacy of those warnings is just as important to deterrence as military prowess. Some Washington policymakers may assume that China is unlikely to take more aggressive action in other areas if Beijing’s response to significant geopolitical shocks involving its partners primarily consists of diplomatic criticism.
Russia faces a different—but no less consequential—set of calculations. Moscow has positioned itself as a major Middle Eastern political mediator for the majority of the last ten years through its military engagement in Syria. Russian soldiers established a key base on the Mediterranean coast and assisted in stabilizing Bashar al-Assad’s regime starting in 2015. From such a vantage point, Moscow participated in almost all meaningful discussions regarding the future of the area.
However, that impact has been diminished. The political landscape has drastically changed as a result of the fall of the Syrian government and the growing power of actors supported by the West in Damascus. In addition to losing a strategic ally, Russia has also lost a significant portion of the regional clout it developed over the course of almost 10 years of diplomatic and military engagement.
In that context, Iran now occupies a far more important place in Moscow’s strategic thinking than it once did. Defense and energy cooperation are two areas where the two nations’ relationship has grown. Iranian drones have contributed to Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, establishing a clear connection between the conflict in Eastern Europe and events in the Middle East. The message would reverberate much beyond the immediate battlefield if Iran were to sustain a significant military defeat at the hands of a concerted operation by the United States and Israel. While opposing major powers stayed mostly on the sidelines, observers from all around the world would see that Washington still had the capability to change regional dynamics.
These impressions build up in geopolitics. Credibility develops gradually, frequently over years, but it can deteriorate rapidly. Some governments may start to doubt the geopolitical benefit of aligning with Moscow if Russia seems incapable—or unwilling—to react when a close ally is under severe strain. However, competing nations might feel more confident to test Russian interests in other disputed areas, such as the Black Sea or Ukraine. However, Moscow’s choices are far from straightforward. In order to lessen the impact of Western sanctions, Russia has been fostering stronger commercial connections with a number of Gulf governments in recent years. Openly supporting Iran might make those relations more difficult. But staying completely silent runs the danger of conveying a contrary message: that when tensions rise, Russian alliances provide little strategic defense.
It seems unlikely that either China or Russia will move quickly to engage in direct combat. There would be significant risks of escalation. However, great-power competition seldom relies solely on choices made on the battlefield. There are plenty of other ways to be influential. Both nations have permanent seats in the UN Security Council. They can guarantee that any military action is politically disputed on the international scene by imposing debates, contesting legal justifications, and introducing resolutions, even symbolic ones. Beyond the Security Council, diplomacy is also important. Sovereignty and non-intervention have long been valued in nations like South Africa, Brazil, and India. Even if it doesn’t instantly change the situation on the ground, coordinated pressure from a larger group of states could influence how the issue is portrayed worldwide.
Another option is economic levers. The energy markets continue to be extremely vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Major exporters continue to have the power to affect supply and pricing decisions by working with producers in organizations like OPEC+. Even little changes can serve as a reminder to the globe that regional conflicts have far-reaching economic repercussions. Great powers are also capable of sending quieter signals. Regional balances are not changing in isolation, as seen by intelligence collaboration, defensive technology transfers, and conspicuous naval deployments in nearby waterways. These actions convey that other important actors are keeping a close eye on them even while they avoid open confrontation.
Ultimately, this moment’s significance goes well beyond Iran. Expectations about how power functions in the international system are gradually shaped by incidents such as these. The precedent starts to take hold if armed action consistently reshapes regional orders without significant opposition from opposing nations. That precedent unavoidably affects Taiwan’s future for China. For Russia, it relates to both the larger security balance throughout Europe and the continuing conflict in Ukraine. Credibility is crucial in both situations.
Moments like this become inevitable tests if Beijing and Moscow want to maintain an international system where power is more widely spread. It is not always necessary to escalate conflict in order to respond. It often involves proving that significant changes in regional power will not happen completely unchallenged through diplomacy, economic pressure, and strategic signaling. There is meaning in silence as well. In places far from the Persian Gulf, how Tehran interprets that silence now could influence strategic decisions tomorrow.
Iranian state television has announced that the Assembly of Experts has chosen Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader after a “decisive vote”. He’s the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was killed by the United States on February 28.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Over the last seven days, we have watched a joint air campaign unlike what we have ever seen before. New capabilities and evolved threats have made headlines as the world watched much of the Middle East become a free-fire zone. At the same time, many questions surrounding how long the war will take and its true scope and goals grow louder. These calls for clarity are becoming more pronounced globally, as well, as the Strait of Hormuz is experiencing a heart attack of sorts, with energy shipments stopped on the strategic waterway’s northern edge.
While missile and drone launches have decreased significantly, these weapons continue to score major hits. Beyond U.S. military-related sites in Gulf Arab states, Iran continues to pummel energy production infrastructure. There are real concerns about the ability to defend against these attacks over the long term as interceptor stocks dwindle.
The London insurance market is willing and able to cover vessels looking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, according to Gallagher https://t.co/rUogubsv6g
All this is occurring while Iran is experiencing a power vacuum the likes of which it has never experienced. As the U.S. and Israel ramp up strikes across the country during the transition from standoff to direct attacks, what will come of Iran’s fractured government remains a total unknown. Fears are growing that the default control of Iran could fall to its most well-armed and fanatical arm, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a top possibility we laid out in our feature published before the strikes commenced.
So much has happened in one week, and we were right there providing rolling coverage and breakouts nearly around the clock. Now, once again, we look at the present. Here’s what’s going on as we flow through day eight of the war.
LATEST UPDATES
We have concluded our rolling coverage in this piece.
UPDATE: 4:29 PM EST-
Check out our feature on the major alarm bells that should be ringing after Iran successfully targeted multiple missile defense radars in the region.
Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call
Iran’s successful targeting of prized missile defense radars in the Middle East highlights global vulnerabilities.
More video has emerged from the dignified transfer of the remains of six soldiers killed in Kuwait on March 1.
U.S. President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attended the dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base of the 6 U.S. Army soldiers killed during an Iranian strike on their operations center. 🇺🇸Capt. Cody Khork 🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Noah Tietjens 🇺🇸Sgt. 1st Class Nicole… pic.twitter.com/akSQntnUnM
Ali Larijani, Iran’s de facto wartime leader in the wake of the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, issued a direct threat against Trump via X.
We will relentlessly avenge the blood of our of our Leader and our people. Trump must pay and will pay. #Trumpmustpay
— Ali Larijani | علی لاریجانی (@alilarijani_ir) March 7, 2026
Meanwhile, in Iraq, pro-Iranian members of parliament are shouting the long-familiar phrases “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America.”
Members of parliament from the pro-Iranian factions in the Iraqi parliament are shouting “America is the Great Satan” and “Death to America” https://t.co/78WrtfLsvK
Given the ambiguity of the situation, the Kurds say they are not rushing into Iran.
“Certainly, we are staying neutral as Iraqi Kurds b/c there’s no clarity for us on US policy,” a KRG official said. “Our assessment is there can’t be regime change w/o boots on the ground and that the US is not sending [them].” @BarakRavid, @MarcACaputohttps://t.co/kKj6GWOCHs
To counter Iranian drone and missile fire, a U.S. Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated near the American embassy in Baghdad.
A Counter Rocket, Artillery, and Mortar (C-RAM) system was activated a short time ago in the area of the American embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, due to reported drone and missile fire. pic.twitter.com/f2VOtE1ZbU
U.S. IndoPacific Command took to X to dispute some claims about the recent sinking of the Iranian frigate IRIS Dena by a USN fast attack submarine.
🚫 Iran claims IRIS Dena was unarmed – FALSE ✅ Law of Armed Conflict authorized the use of force to target and destroy valid military targets – TRUE ✅ U.S. forces planned for and Sri Lanka provided life-saving support to survivors in accordance with the Law of Armed Conflict -… pic.twitter.com/DdY5RNFUYf
— U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (@INDOPACOM) March 7, 2026
The IDF said it is continuing to strike Iranian ballistic missile production sites.
🎯 STRUCK: 2 main ballistic missile production sites in Parchin and Shahrud.
Over the past week, hundreds of IAF fighter jets struck the Iranian regime’s production industries, which are used for the development and production of missiles and weapons.
The IDF launched strikes Saturday evening on Iran’s national oil facilities in Tehran for the first time since the start of the war, targeting dozens of fuel storage tanks, YNET News reported, citing Israeli officials.
“The attack was carried out under directives from the political leadership and with IDF support, marking a significant escalation in Israel’s campaign against Iranian regime infrastructure,” the outlet explained.
An Israeli security official says recent strikes targeted fuel tanks used by Iran’s regime, adding pressure on the government is increasing and it may soon struggle to provide citizens with basic necessities. “We have not said the last word,” the official said. – N12 https://t.co/5yX69pUMl2
The Israel Defense Forces says it’s demolished a majority of Iran’s ballistic-missile launchers, causing the number of missiles targeting Israel and other countries in the region to fall throughout the week, Bloomberg News reported.
More than 60% of such launchers have been “neutralized and destroyed,” Eyal Zamir, chief of the general staff of the IDF, said in a televised statement on Thursday. Zamir did not say how many had been struck, but the IDF had cited the number as 300 earlier that day.
Israeli assessments say Iran now has about 100 operational missile launchers remaining out of roughly 420 before the war.
Around 150 launchers were destroyed, while another 150 were struck and buried in underground sites, leaving them currently unusable. pic.twitter.com/LnYpNdGIm0
We are getting new satellite images of bomb damage in Iran from Vantor. The images show the airport and port in the city of Bushehr, which sits along the northeastern shore of the Persian Gulf. We also get a shot of the tunnel entrances at the underground facility in Natanz and what looks like a vehicle destroyed nearby, possibly a short-range air defense system.
The entrance to the naval base doesn’t look to inviting anymore:
We are also getting a satellite view of the destruction at Tehran International from the IAF’s strikes there last night:
Satellite imagery shows that at least 17 aircraft, most of which appear to be passenger planes, were destroyed in last night’s US and Israeli attacks on Mehrabad International Airport.
Another drone strike on a highrise tower in Dubai:
UPDATE: 1:20 PM EST—
Israel is now clarifying its attack on Iran’s international airport, stating they targeted aircraft used by the IRGC for weapons transfers to proxies. These aircraft are well known and include some of the country’s last airworthy 747s.
STRUCK: 16 IRGC Quds Force aircraft used to transfer weapons to Hezbollah.
The IAF conducted a wave of precise strikes in Tehran, targeting military infrastructure at Mehrabad Airport, a central hub used by the IRGC to arm and fund its terror proxies across the Middle East.… pic.twitter.com/ZbZJMvikI6
South Korea is rushing deliveries of SAMs to the UAE as the interceptor crunch deepens:
South Korea announced that it will send around 30 ballistic missile interceptors to the UAE via C-17 right tomorrow. It would appear that they brought ROKAF’s reserves. Among the 10 batteries under contract, currently, two M-SAM-II batteries are operating in the UAE. The… pic.twitter.com/WIA3bQE0oo
The scarcity of interceptors continues to raise alarms amongst allies around the globe:
Bloomberg: “Several European Union states warned at a closed-door meeting in Brussels this week that there is a shortage of interceptors across the world, according to people familiar with the matter.”https://t.co/UNB27op4nb
Another round of B-2 strikes appears to be on the way. It will be interesting to see if they recover in Diego Garcia this time instead of the United States:
Emirati fighters are seen prowling over the Gulf Of Oman in search of Iranian drones to kill.
Emirati Vipers and Mirages on counter-UAS patrols in vicinity of Fujairah Port and the surrounding oil infrastructure. These are also flown much farther out for forward intercepts. pic.twitter.com/6DQuvimTTO
More indications that the Kurds are going to go into Iran, but just how shallow those movements would be isn’t clear.
BREAKING: The Secretary-General of Khabat, a Kurdish organization based in Iraq, tells Al Jazeera that Kurdish fighters in Iraq will “likely” stage a ground operation in Iran, confirming communication with the US
The Iranian drone attack on Dubai’s international airport may have been targeting the air traffic control tower. It is possible that this radar is tied into the military’s air defense architecture, but even if it is not, it would be another blow to the economy of the country as it would impact air travel.
An unconfirmed report states that the US warned the Iranian warship Dena to abandon ship multiple times before the Los Angeles class fast attack submarine sunk it via torpedo. This is supposedly coming from one of the sailors aboard that survived.
An Iranian sailor who was killed when the warship Dena was struck by the US near Sri Lanka had called his father shortly beforehand, saying American forces had issued two warnings for the crew to abandon the vessel, a source close to the family told Iran International.
— Iran International English (@IranIntl_En) March 7, 2026
UPDATE 12:25 PM EST—
Iran is going after the heart of Saudi oil production.
Saudi Arabia says it intercepted and destroyed 16 drones heading toward the Shaybah oil field, one of the kingdom’s largest energy sites producing about 1 million barrels per day. The defense ministry did not say where the drones came from.https://t.co/MuYLumDuPY
There are additional indications that America’s involvement in this conflict will be longer than some anticipated:
A joint letter from the Commanding General and Command Chief of the Air National Guard have published a letter to their subordinates indicating that their continued support will be necessary in the weeks ahead.
Israel also says the chief of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) just flew a combat mission over Iran.
There are reports of additional US wounded from Epic Fury, but CENTCOM tells us that the tally still stands at six troops killed and 10 seriously wounded. This could be due to a delay in information or just erroneous reports, and we will keep you posted.
What appears to be a HIMARS launcher firing a rocket (likely PrSM ballistic missile, the first of which was used operationally in this war) from the beach in Bahrain. It hasn’t been clear where the United States is firing these weapons from, but it would appear that, assuming this video is authentic, Bahrain is one of those locales. It is just 125 miles from Bahrain to Iran, so PrSM would be able to reach nearly two hundred miles into Iran from this distance.
Footage confirms a U.S. M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) launching a Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) toward Iran from Bahrain. pic.twitter.com/aQBubFQEYS
Israel says it destroyed Iran’s central hub of its air defense efforts:
⭕️The IDF dismantled the air defense situation room of the IRGC Air Force, responsible for the aerial situational assessment and to defend Iran’s airspace.
Additionally, the Israeli Air Force struck air defense systems, a site used to manufacture & launch ballistic missiles,… pic.twitter.com/DYNKhz03e3
B-1B bombers are now operating out of RAF Fairford in the United Kingdom. This comes after the U.K. government denied US access to Fairford and Diego Garcia. We should expect bombers in Diego Garcia soon. These will likely include B-2 and possibly B-52s. Forward deploying the bombers will drastically increase sortie rates and put less stress on aerial refueling assets.
USAF B-1B Lancer heavy bomber landing in Britain, following a mission that saw it take off from the U.S. and strike Iran. pic.twitter.com/idujAR9eeY
Yesterday, a total of 4x B-1B “Lancer” bombers departed the USA heading towards Europe. 1 airframe, which used the callsign “PIKE72” (86-0120 #AE6BFA) went to RAF Fairford, while the other 3 aircraft… pic.twitter.com/XMFgf2mwFv
While Iranian launches have decreased, they certainly are far from stopping. Just overnight alone, Iran launched nearly 140 weapons at the UAE alone.
Iran fired 16 ballistic missiles and 121 drones at UAE overnight. Fifteen of the missiles were shot down, one fell into the sea. All drones intercepted except two: MoD
One drone slipped through and hit Dubai’s international airport.
Multiple MQ-9s have been lost over Iran in the conflict so far, but they have been extremely effective in taking out all types of Iranian targets, from missile launchers to drones to fighter aircraft to vessels. As we noted in our previous update, they are also far more expendable and less risky to deploy deep in Iran than crewed alternatives. But as we have explored in depth, air supremacy over Iran has not been achieved and won’t for some time.
Another US MQ-9 Reaper UCAV was shot down by IRGC Aerospace Force air defense over Hormozgan province. Some sources write that this is an Israeli Hermes-900, but this is clearly US MQ-9 with Hellfire missiles pic.twitter.com/7nvOEEoGUz
Iran’s new leadership has stated that the country will stop attacking its neighbors if they do not participate in attacks on Iran. Iranian officials have also made clear that they see the basic act of hosting U.S. bases as contributing to the current campaign. The drones and missiles have continued to be launched at Arab Gulf states, regardless.
This is a misinterpretation, btw, which the President’s office corrected.
#Iran’s President has issued a new video message: The idea of Iran surrendering unconditionally is a dream they will take to their graves… Interim Leadership Council decided yesterday to end strikes on neighboring countries unless Iran is attacked from those territories. pic.twitter.com/TPyMSVPLWz
Some in the Iranian parliament are not pleased with even indicating the country may cease its retaliation efforts aimed at Arab countries across the Persian Gulf:
Iranian parliament member is furious about the remarks made by Iran’s president, Pezeshkian, today.
Iranian MP says: “Mr. Pezeshkian’s weak, unprofessional, and publicly unacceptable televised address has made it the definitive duty of the Presidium and members of the Assembly… https://t.co/D1tF98QV4D
U.S. intel agencies warned prior to Operation Epic Fury that favorable regime change in Iran is unlikely to occur regardless of the military operation used to achieve it, according to The Washington Post.
NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America’s 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵
The lack of preparedness by the Uited Kingdom in responding to the conflict is becoming an issue back home and internationally.
EXC: The US first asked about the use of UK bases to attack Iran on February 11, SIXTEEN days before the first missiles flew. The first warship HMS Dragon will not sail until next week, by which point at least 26 days will have passed https://t.co/tXRyQ2Gq5A
Jordan was “fucking furious,” a former minister with friends in Amman says. “The Emiratis, Kuwaitis, and even the Canadians are all asking, ‘What the fuck are you doing? Whose side are you on?’” The Emiratis pointed out that Britain was failing to help protect the 240,000 British… https://t.co/648pMme7C8
The United Kingdom is moving ahead with its deployment of Wildcat helicopters to Cyprus to help in the counter-drone mission after a successful attack on the RAF’s base there that originated in Lebanon.
The RAF has also shared imagery of Typhoon fighters operating in Qatar to help defend against drone attacks.
Four RAF Typhoon aircraft have deployed from RAF Coningsby to Qatar, strengthening the UK’s air presence in the Middle East.
Operating alongside 12 Squadron and the Qatari Typhoon squadron, the aircraft will support Bahraini and Emirati air defence. pic.twitter.com/3rzhN7UMB0
A stunning image of the destroyed AN/TYP-2 anti-ballistic missile radar, one of a number of prized radars that have been struck by Iranian weapons. We have a major story coming on this and its implications today. This is a scenario we have been warning about for years. Stay tuned.
Photos have now confirmed the destruction of a AN/TPY-2 Forward Based X-band Transportable Radar operated by the U.S. Army, following an Iranian drone attack earlier this week targeting Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The AN/TPY-2 is the primary ground-based air surveillance… pic.twitter.com/54QyQCxNVW
Another commercial vessel appears to have been attacked in the Persian Gulf:
Israel is back to fighting on two fronts, with major operations in Lebanon ongoing since Hezbollah broke the ceasefire in retaliation for Israel’s air campaign against Iran.
Local sources tell me that the IDF have reportedly conducted an air assault near the village of Al-Nabi Shayth in Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley.
Reports state that China is working with Iran to get safe passage of oil tankers through the Strait. China has a high degree of dependence on energy resources from the Middle East.
China in talks with Iran to allow safe oil and gas passage through Hormuz, sources say https://t.co/hJ1KsNsQ68
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) March 6, 2026
Trump again lauded the achievements of the air war so far, highlighting how the country’s conventional fighting capabilities have been ‘wiped out.’
🚨 JUST IN — PRESIDENT TRUMP ON IRAN: “Their army is gone. Their navy is gone. Their communications are gone. Their leaders are gone. Two sets of their leaders are gone. They’re down to their third set. Their Air Force is wiped out entirely. Think of it.”
Iran’s attack on the CIA’s station in Saudi Arabia appears to have put it completely out of action:
Airstrikes overnight pummeled Iran, including its largest airport:
Massive cloud of smoke rising over the port city of Bushehr in southern Iran following American/Israeli airstrikes on Saturday afternoon. pic.twitter.com/Cf0AGhGtuy
— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) March 7, 2026
Thousands of civilians have fled an opposition stronghold in eastern South Sudan after the army ordered evacuations to clear the way for a military offensive, the latest sign that the country’s fragile peace is unravelling, as fears of a return to all-out civil war haunt the world’s youngest nation.
The town of Akobo, near the Ethiopian border, was almost completely emptied by Sunday after the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces issued an ultimatum on Friday demanding that civilians, aid workers and United Nations peacekeepers leave ahead of a planned assault.
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“The town is now almost empty,” said Nhial Lew, a local humanitarian official. “Women, children and the elderly have left and crossed into Ethiopia.” By Sunday evening, he could hear the conflict closing in. “We are hearing the sound of machine guns approaching,” he told the Associated Press news agency.
The army’s deadline was set to expire Monday afternoon.
The order extends a government counteroffensive, launched in January and dubbed Operation Enduring Peace, that has already displaced more than 280,000 people across Jonglei state since December, when opposition forces began seizing government positions.
The UN’s Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned of a possible “return to full-scale war” if the country’s leadership didn’t take the challenges it faces more seriously.
“Preventing further mass atrocity crimes, institutional collapse, and the destruction of South Sudan’s fragile transition requires urgent coordinated national, regional and international re-engagement,” the report said.
Akobo, which had been considered a relatively safe haven and sheltered more than 82,000 displaced people, is one of the last remaining strongholds of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-in-Opposition, or SPLM-IO, the armed movement loyal to South Sudan’s detained former vice president, Riek Machar.
Two UN flights evacuated most humanitarian staff on Sunday, though the International Committee of the Red Cross had not yet pulled its personnel from a surgical unit it runs at the local hospital, where wounded patients were still being treated.
“We are worried for our patients,” said Dual Diew, the county health director. “We tried to make a plan to take them to a safer location, but we don’t have enough fuel.”
The offensive comes amid a wider breakdown of the 2018 peace agreement that ended a civil war between forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those backing Machar, a conflict that killed an estimated 400,000 people and forced millions from their homes.
Machar has been under house arrest in the capital, Juba, since March 2025, facing charges of treason and murder that his supporters say are politically motivated.
His detention coincided with a sharp rise in armed opposition activity, and a UN inquiry has since found that South Sudan’s leaders have been “systematically dismantling” the accord.
Conflicts have taken place across the country among groups associated with the two factions, said Jan Pospisil, a South Sudan researcher who spoke to Al Jazeera.
Dozens killed in the north
On Sunday, at least 169 people were killed, among them 90 civilians, including women and children, when armed men stormed a village in Abiemnom county in the country’s north.
The local administrator blamed the attack on elements of the White Army, a militia historically allied to Machar, alongside SPLM-IO-affiliated forces. The group denied any involvement. More than 1,000 people sought shelter at a UN base in the area.
“Such violence places civilians at grave risk and must stop immediately,” said Anita Kiki Gbeho of the UN mission in South Sudan.
Aid organisations operating in the conflict zone have also been targeted, with Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials, MSF, saying on Monday that 26 of its staff remain unaccounted for, a month after a government air strike destroyed its hospital in the town of Lankien and a separate facility in Pieri was looted.
Staff who had been reached described “destruction, violence and extreme hardships”. It was the 10th attack on an MSF facility in 12 months.
“Medical workers must never be targets,” said Yashovardhan, the charity’s head of mission in South Sudan, who uses only one name.
Pospisil said the crisis had exposed the fragility of Kiir’s hold on power.
“The state is literally falling apart,” Pospisil said, referring to the convergence of conflict in the country and the elderly state of the president, whose condition has raised questions.
Pospisil added that the outcome of Machar’s ongoing trial would likely shape what comes next.
Iran’s IRGC had earlier said they targeted radar systems in locations including Al-Kharj, home to Prince Sultan base.
Published On 8 Mar 20268 Mar 2026
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At least two people have been killed after a projectile fell on a residential location in Saudi Arabia‘s Al-Kharj city, Saudi authorities reported, as Iranian counterattacks on Gulf nations hosting US military assets entered a second week.
The Saudi civil defence said in a post on X on Sunday, without mentioning Iran, that an unspecified “military projectile” had hit a residential area in Al-Kharj, killing two foreign nationals – one Indian and one Bangladeshi – and injuring 12 people.
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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had said earlier that it had targeted radar systems in locations including Al-Kharj governorate, which is home to the Prince Sultan airbase used by United States forces, and has come under repeated attack over the past week in the US and Israeli war against Iran.
Reporting from Doha, Al Jazeera’s Laura Khan said the projectile had landed on a residential site belonging to a maintenance and cleaning company.
“This is getting very volatile and dangerous for people across the Gulf,” she said. “It’s really important to emphasise that over 200 nationalities live and work across the Gulf nations. Many of these could be labourers.”
On Sunday, the Saudi Defence Ministry reported intercepting 15 drones, including an attempted attack in the diplomatic quarter of the capital Riyadh.
Kuwait, meanwhile, said an attack hit fuel tanks at its international airport, and Bahrain reported a water desalination plant had been damaged.
Sunday’s attacks came after Israeli warplanes hit five oil facilities around the Iranian capital, killing several people, according to a state oil executive, and blanketing the city in acrid smoke.
A spokesperson for the IRGC said Iran would retaliate if US-Israel attacks on its energy infrastructure did not let up.
“If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game,” said the spokesperson.
As the war extended into its ninth day, the IRGC said it had enough supplies to continue drone and missile attacks across the Middle East for up to six months.
Ahmed Aboul Gheit, secretary-general of the Arab League, said Iran’s attacks on several member states were “reckless”, urging Tehran to reverse what he called a “massive strategic mistake”.
Iran’s Health Ministry said Sunday that at least 1,200 civilians had been killed and around 10,000 wounded since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on February 28.
For two overs, it appeared things could have been just like 2023 when India were far too tentative on, quite literally, cricket’s biggest stage.
There were five dot balls in the first over, bowled by seamer Matt Henry, and only five runs in the second, off Glenn Phillips’ part-time spin.
But Samson and Abhishek took 15 from Jacob Duffy’s first over and 24 from the next bowled by Lockie Ferguson as the innings, and the crowd, roared into life.
Even with that slow start, Abhishek and Samson took 92 runs from the best powerplay ever seen at a World Cup. In comparison, the Black Caps were 52-3 after their first six overs – a crucial difference.
Abhishek had only made one score over 15 in this tournament but flogged the ball to all parts. Samson was again supreme, backing up his 97 not out against West Indies and 89 against England with another innings that mixed flair with a classical technique.
Together he and Abhishek hit 12 of the innings’ 18 sixes, which took India’s tournament total to 106 – 30 more than any other team here and a record for a T20 World Cup.
When left-hander Kishan followed in raising his bat it was the first time the top three had reached fifty in a men’s T20 World Cup. They had 203 runs after 15.1 overs and Dube’s late burst – after a run of 28 runs in 24 balls – ensured India charged beyond a par score.
They took all the momentum, a batting paradise capitalised upon. Afterwards the chase was a slow coronation.
India were beaten by South Africa in the Super 8s stage but have responded brilliantly with three scores in excess of 250. This was a night of glory for a new generation, after the T20 retirement of superstars Virat Kohli, Rohit Sharma and Ravindra Jadeja.
Tehran, Iran – Senior religious leaders have signalled that Iran’s government may soon announce a new leader as hardliners and sidelined reformists deliberate their futures amid the quickly escalating United States-Israeli war on Iran.
Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri – a top figure in the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which will appoint the new supreme leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in Tehran on February 28 – said the choice had to be made with care so it would be indisputable internally.
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“An almost decisive opinion has been reached. A significant majority has been formed, but at the same time, some obstacles have to be removed, which we hope will happen soon,” the head of the Qom Academy of Islamic Sciences said in a video released on Sunday by the Fars news agency, which is affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The top ultraconservative Muslim leader representing the holy Shia city of Mashhad in the Assembly of Experts, Ahmad Alamolhoda, said on Sunday that the leader has been chosen and the secretariat of the Assembly of Experts must soon announce the result.
Abbas Kaabi, a senior member of the Guardian Council, said on Friday that the powerful 12-member constitutional body was not given any names to consider for the next supreme leader by Khamenei during his lifetime, only attributes.
“He said: Among all attributes, the financial piety of the supreme leader is of primary importance because, given the important powers and responsibilities of leadership, if financial deviation occurs, it will spread to all other matters,” Kaabi was quoted as saying by the IRGC-affiliated Mehr news agency.
The religious leader also quoted Khamenei as pointing to “a rooted belief in the fundamentals of the [1979] Islamic revolution, having insight and knowledge of enemies and sedition, and especially being anti-arrogance and having faith and resistance in confronting America and the Zionist regime” as being among other top attributes for a future leader.
Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the late supreme leader, is believed to be a frontrunner for the position as he enjoys wide backing from powerful commanders in the IRGC who have been launching missiles and drones across the region over the past week.
US President Donald Trump, who has said he wants to play a role in determining the future leadership of Iran, has objected to the younger Khamenei’s ascension.
The Israeli army has said it will try to assassinate Iran’s remaining leaders and has bombed their offices and gathering spots in Tehran, Qom and other cities. Israel and the US have repeatedly expressed their interest in changing the government of Iran.
Israeli media reported on Saturday that Asghar Hejazi, a senior religious leader who was Khamenei’s acting chief of staff, was killed in a series of overnight air strikes targeting an underground compound in downtown Tehran used by the supreme leader and other officials. Iran has not commented.
Reformists weigh in as Pezeshkian creates row
President Masoud Pezeshkian came under fire after he released a video from an undisclosed location on Saturday and apologised to regional neighbours who have been fighting off Iranian missiles and drones.
The armed forces leading the military attacks, including the Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters of the IRGC and interim leadership council member and chief justice of the Supreme Court, Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, quickly released statements to emphasise that the strikes would continue, with Iran as well as the US and Israel, saying they are ready for months of war if necessary.
The row prompted more hardliners, including religious leaders, lawmakers and IRGC-affiliated media, to call on the Assembly of Experts to move quickly to announce the next supreme leader. Ayatollah Hossein Nouri-Hamedani said the process should be expedited to “disappoint the enemy and preserve the unity and solidarity of the nation”.
The disagreement has broken out after reformist factions within the establishment have been pushed aside by hardliners in recent years while the conservatives also have lost favour among an increasingly disillusioned public.
Mohammad Khatami, a reformist religious leader who was president from 1997 to 2005, released a statement to mourn Khamenei last week but also signalled that he sees a future for a reformed Islamic Republic.
The establishment is in need of “reforming approaches and practices objected to by the people”, he said without naming any examples.
“Our path is the path of freedom, independence, people-centrism and fair living, and that is a difficult path to tread and requires wisdom and tolerance,” he said.
Khatami and the Reformist Front of Iran also released general calls for reform after thousands of people were killed during nationwide protests in January.
The Iranian government said “terrorists” backed by the US and Israel were responsible for the killings, but the United Nations and international humanitarian organisations blamed state forces for a lethal crackdown against peaceful protesters.
The leaders of the Reformist Front were arrested or summoned by Iranian intelligence and judicial authorities last month for what the establishment called an attempt to “disrupt the country’s political and social order” and working “for the benefit” of Israel and the US during the antigovernment protests.
Most have since been released on bail, but some remain incarcerated as do many of the tens of thousands of people believed to have been arrested during and in the aftermath of the protests.
Hassan Rouhani, the moderate religious leader who was president from 2013 to 2021 and who rejected being part of a reported power grab last month, has remained publicly silent during the deliberations over the next supreme leader.
Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, another influential figure, survived an assassination attempt last week, according to Iranian media.
Fuel reserves and oil refineries in Tehran were bombed by the Israeli military overnight into Sunday, leaving thick plumes of smoke enveloping the sprawling city of 10 million people during the day as oil residue fell as part of a heavy rain.
The United States-Israeli war on Iran could leave consumers and businesses worldwide facing weeks or months of higher fuel prices even if the conflict, which is now in its eighth day, ends quickly, as suppliers grapple with damaged facilities, disrupted logistics, and elevated risks to shipping.
The outlook poses a global economic threat and a political vulnerability for US President Donald Trump leading into the midterm elections, with voters sensitive to energy bills and unfavourable to foreign entanglements.
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Global oil prices have surged by more than 25 percent since the start of the war, driving up fuel prices for consumers worldwide.
The national average petrol price reached $3.41 per gallon ($0.9 a litre) on Saturday, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), rising by $0.43 over the past week. Goldman Sachs warned oil prices could climb above $100 per barrel if shipping disruptions continue.
The US crude oil settled at just below $91 per barrel on Friday – its largest weekly gain on record in data dating back to 1983, indicating prices could continue to rise.
“The market is shifting from pricing pure geopolitical risk to grappling with tangible operational disruption, as refinery shutdowns and export constraints begin to impair crude processing and regional supply flows,” JP Morgan analysts said earlier this week, according to the Reuters news agency.
The conflict has already led to the suspension of about a fifth of global crude and natural gas supply, as Tehran targets ships in the vital Strait of Hormuz between its shores and Oman, and attacks energy infrastructure across the region.
A nearly complete shutdown of the strait means the region’s top oil producers – Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait – have had to suspend shipments of as much as 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – to global refiners.
More than 80 percent of global trade moves by sea, according to the World Bank, meaning disruptions in the waterway could increase freight costs and delay deliveries of goods.
Storages in the Gulf filling
As a result, oil and gas storage at facilities in the Gulf is rapidly filling, forcing oilfields in Iraq and Kuwait to cut oil production, with the UAE likely to cut next, analysts, traders and sources told Reuters.
“At some point soon, everyone will also shut in if vessels do not come,” a source with a state oil company in the region, who asked not to be named, told Reuters.
Oilfields forced to shut in across the Middle East as a result of the shipping disruptions could take a while to return to normal, said Amir Zaman, head of the Americas commercial team at Rystad Energy.
“The conflict could be ended, but it could take days or weeks or months, depending on the types of fields, age of the field, the type of shut-in that they’ve had to do before you can get production back up to what it once was,” he said.
Iranian forces, meanwhile, are targeting regional energy infrastructure, including refineries and terminals, forcing them to shut down too, with some of those operations badly damaged by attacks and in need of repairs.
Qatar declared force majeure on its huge volumes of gas exports on Wednesday after Iranian drone attacks, and it may take at least a month to return to normal production levels, sources told Reuters. Qatar supplies 20 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Saudi Aramco’s mammoth Ras Tanura refinery and crude export terminal, meanwhile, has also closed due to attacks, with no details on damage.
Economists warn that the situation could create a combination of higher prices and slower growth.
A year ago, engineers at Snowflake, the American cloud-based data platform, still spent part of their day on routine tasks – such as scanning dashboards to ensure systems were running smoothly and chasing colleagues for data to complete trend analyses.
Now, says Qaiser Habib, the company’s Toronto-based head of Canada engineering, AI agents handle much of that groundwork, allowing engineers to focus on higher-level decisions.
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Habib spends 20 to 30 hours a week interacting with five AI agents. Snowflake has built agents to review product design or to help on-call engineers to help during an outage or an incident, among other uses. He estimates the average engineer works with three or four agents daily, using them to carry out coding projects under human supervision.
“You don’t have to bother a human for basic questions any more,” Habib said, noting that he still collaborates with colleagues on more complex work, such as troubleshooting coding problems.
As companies experiment with AI agents – systems designed to plan, reason and carry out multistep tasks – the technology is beginning to reshape office hierarchies across the United States and Canada. Unlike chatbots, which respond to prompts, AI agents can adapt to changing contexts such as business goals and draw on reference tools including calendars, meeting transcripts and internal databases, to complete work with limited human oversight.
In some workplaces, AI systems are not just completing tasks but also assigning them to human workers. As the technology improves, AI agents are also beginning to manage each other. One agent might generate code, for example, while another reviews it for errors and fixes bugs before a human signs off on the final version.
These agent-to-agent workflows can help companies scale faster. But they also intensify concerns that AI is moving beyond assistance into supervision – and potentially, job replacement.
The leaner office
Anthropic recently expanded access to its cowork agents, allowing users without technical expertise to grant Claude – its AI assistant – permission to specific folders on their computers so it can read, edit, create and organise files autonomously.
The growing use of AI agents is transforming how organisations function around the world, even in companies that aren’t focused on building technology products. For example, some companies are using AI tools to track performance, recommend promotions, role changes, and even identify roles for elimination.
The shift comes as white-collar jobs continue to disappear, particularly in the US. A slew of US employers have announced mass layoffs, mostly affecting entry-level and middle-management workers, and executives have pointed to automation and AI-driven efficiency as part of the rationale. When Amazon said in October that it planned to eliminate about 14,000 jobs, executives cited AI’s potential to help the company operate with fewer layers and greater efficiency. UPS, Target and General Motors also announced deep cuts last year, and this January saw more layoffs than any January in the US since 2009. Several more companies, including Pinterest and HP, continued to cite AI initiatives as part of the reason.
Goldman Sachs has estimated that 6 to 7 percent of US workers could lose their jobs due to AI adoption, with higher risks for computer programmers, accountants, auditors, legal and administrative assistants, and customer service representatives. Overall employment effects, the bank said in August, may be “relatively temporary” as new roles emerge.
Middle management squeezed
Early predictions suggested AI would mainly replace entry-level technical jobs, and some experts tie recent high unemployment rates for new graduates to AI adoption. But the bigger disruption, said Roger Kirkness, founder of AI software firm Convictional in Toronto, is occurring in middle management.
His company’s tools translate executive strategy into operational tasks – a role once handled by supervisors – delivering daily assignments and feedback to employees through a user-friendly inbox interface.
In companies of more than 50 people, “where CEOs can’t speak with each manager, our platform continually surfaces the context that the organisation has that is relevant to leadership decision-making”, Kirkness told Al Jazeera.
This doesn’t mean humans have become irrelevant. But there is growing pressure to reskill, and those who thrive in strategic thinking are better-positioned to adapt to AI-integrated work environments, Kirkness said.
“People are basically becoming managers of their prior jobs,” he said, because AI is now able to perform many of the tasks that previously fell within their roles. Instead of completing tasks such as coding or designing marketing assets, humans are focusing on higher-level strategy while monitoring AI systems, he added.
However, recent research indicates that job cuts reflect companies’ anticipation of AI’s potential, rather than its current ability to replace human workers fully.
A December Harvard Business Review survey of 1,006 global executives found that while AI has played little direct role in replacing workers so far, many companies have already cut jobs or slowed hiring in anticipation of its promised impact.
Most CEOs say they’re still waiting on AI’s payoff: 56 percent report no revenue or cost benefits so far, according to consulting firm PwC’s latest Global CEO Survey of 4,454 executives across 95 countries and territories.
Trust and control
Stefano Puntoni, a behavioural scientist at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, has found that AI usage is also already affecting workplace communication habits. His research shows employees are often more willing to delegate tasks to AI than to colleagues, which can help to reduce burnout. “There’s no social cost,” he said. “You don’t worry about burdening an AI.”
Still, Puntoni argues the biggest barrier to adoption is psychological, not technical. Even effective systems can fail if workers do not trust them. Generative AI, he said, can threaten employees’ sense of competence, autonomy and connection.
“If workers feel threatened, they may want the system to fail,” Puntoni said. “At scale, that guarantees failure.”
In other words, deploying AI primarily as a cost-cutting tool can backfire. Layoffs framed as efficiency gains may reduce cooperation and limit the productivity benefits companies hope to unlock with technology, Puntoni said.
Trust, Kirkness agreed, is the real constraint. To build staff confidence in the tools it sells – and to avoid layoffs – Convictional adopted a four-day workweek, framing it as a way to share AI-driven productivity gains with employees.
“Mass layoffs in the name of automation destroy trust,” he said.
The human premium
In the US, lawsuits have begun to challenge AI-driven corporate decisions, particularly in areas such as insurance claim denials and alleged AI-enabled hiring discrimination.
Some experts warn that as AI systems become more autonomous, humans risk losing meaningful oversight – and that these agents themselves could become targets for cyberattacks. Yet regulation has struggled to keep pace with innovation. Neither the US nor Canada has clearly defined rules governing AI agents.
Business leaders are testing which functions can be automated and which still require sustained human involvement. For some workers, that uncertainty has become a source of unease.
One employee at a multinational firm, who is based in Vancouver, said she sometimes wonders whether the online “coach” used to support employee development is an AI system or a human relying so heavily on AI tools that the distinction has blurred. She requested anonymity because of concerns about professional repercussions.
Some organisations are setting boundaries. New Ground Wellness, a Canadian clinical counselling and wellness firm, uses AI tools such as chatbots in its daily operations, but recently declined a 20,000 Canadian dollar ($14,600) proposal for an agentic AI intake system that would match therapists with clients.
After receiving feedback from callers, the company concluded that the efficiency gains would not outweigh potential damage to trust. Their decision also reflects multiple surveys showing a strong preference among Western consumers for human customer service workers.
“We are open to revisiting AI systems in the future,” said New Ground Wellness cofounder Lucinda Bibbs, “but at this stage, preserving human connections remains our highest priority.”
Gina Bashir manomiya ce mai shekaru 46 daga Askira Uba a jihar Borno, arewa maso gabashin Najeriya. A lokacin da rikicin Boko Haram ya kai kololuwa, tana zaune a Benisheik, wani karamin gari a Borno, tare da mijinta da ‘ya’yanta shida.
A lokacin wannan rikici, ta rasa dan’uwanta, dan dan’uwanta, da wasu ‘yan uwa shida.
A cikin wannan bidiyo, mun tattauna game da yadda ta tsira da kuma burinta ga ‘ya’yanta.
Randall took the first wicket of his five in a row at the end of his second over before taking the rest from the start of his third over as Northern Districts slumped from 4-0 to 9-5.
The right-arm medium pacer had figures of 5-2 at that point and also took a wicket with the first ball of his third over to make it six wickets in eight balls.
He dismissed another batter with the fifth ball of his third over and finished with figures of 7-25.
“It gets drummed into us a lot that we don’t want to go searching for wickets, so I was trying to just keep bowling the same ball, and our ‘Plan A’ that we’d talked about, and it came off,” said Randall.
“I had no idea that it was the first time it [five wicket in five balls in first-class cricket] had happened in the world, it’s seriously cool.
“I mean, I don’t really have any words at the moment, to be honest. I’ll take it.”
While it is the first time a player has achieved the feat in first-class cricket, it is not the first time a player has taken five wickets in five balls in all formats.
Bandwagon is a propaganda technique that utilizes the instinct of human participation in a systematic manner. It has a simple but deadly basic idea, creating the impression that “everyone is on this side” and that others will join in not because they think critically, but because they are afraid of being left behind, afraid of being seen as wrong, or afraid of being ostracized. In international relations, this technique not only affects public opinion but is also used to pressure countries to follow certain geopolitical positions, build alliances that seem “inevitable,” and delegitimize anyone who chooses not to participate. Motin (2024), in his study on bandwagoning in international relations, explains the behavior of the bandwagon of small and medium countries that are greatly influenced by the perception of global power distribution. When a great power manages to convince the world that it is “winning” or that its position is already the consensus of the majority, other weaker nations tend to conform to that power to avoid the risk of being on the losing side. This is the essence of the bandwagon in propaganda, manipulating perceptions of who is superior. (Dylan Motin, 2024)
Theoretical Roots: Balancing vs Bandwagon
In the theory of international relations, bandwagoning always coexists with the concept of its opponent, namely balancing. According to Cladi & Locatelli (2015), he explained about the alliance theory that states basically have two choices when facing dominating powers, namely by balancing or following (bandwagoning). These decisions are not always taken solely based on strategic calculations but are greatly influenced by the way information regarding the balance of power is conveyed and perceived. This is where the propaganda bandwagon comes into play: through the manipulation of views about who is stronger and more numerous, countries can be invited to ‘join in’ even though the current has actually been set up. A study on alliance theory, published by OPS Alaska Academic in 2003, confirms that in an anarchist international system, small countries are particularly vulnerable to pressure to join because they do not have the resources to independently verify claims about international consensus. They tend to respond to the signals that are most powerful and appear most often in their information environment. These signals can be easily affected by large forces through various operations. (Cladi & Locatelli, 2015) (Thomas Gangale, 2003)
How Does Bandwagon Work in the Field?
To understand this technique concretely, we can look at the example of Sri Lanka discussed in the International Journal of Humanities and Social Science (2015). The study notes how Sri Lanka, during various periods of internal conflict and international pressure, constantly had to navigate between two great powers, each trying to create a narrative that ‘joins us because all that is rational is here.’ ‘Sri Lanka is a prime example of a small country that is the target of bandwagon propaganda from multiple parties at once, where each major power seeks to create the illusion of consensus that they represent the majority of the world. Nanyang Technological University’s RSIS said that the simple division between balancing and bandwagoning is no longer sufficient to explain the behavior of countries in the now much more complex international system. Countries not only choose to fight or follow but also hedge, that is, pretend to follow while secretly maintaining a strategic distance. In addition, bandwagon propaganda techniques are increasingly being used to complicate these hedging options by creating increasingly strong social and reputational pressure on countries that are reluctant to publicly declare their choice (Gunasekara, 2015) (Ian, 2003) (Ian, 2003).
Bandwagon in the Global Disinformation Machine
One of the aspects that makes the bandwagon even more dangerous today is the way it works, which is integrated with large-scale disinformation operations. In the Journal of Advanced Military Studies, it is explained that contemporary political warfare involves not only conventional military power but also efforts to create an information environment that makes resistance feel illogical and futile. The bandwagon serves as a key psychological mechanism in building such an environment: when all sources of information seem to convey the same message, even the most critical individuals begin to doubt their own judgment. The Oxford Internet Institute notes in their in-depth report that in 2020, at least 81 countries have used organized social media strategies to reinforce the impression that their governments have broad support from the public, both domestically and internationally. Thousands of bot accounts and cooperating accounts are launched to fill public discussion spaces with consistent messages, creating a very convincing illusion of consensus. When people turn to social media and see that ‘everyone’ seems to support a certain narrative, the bandwagon effect automatically takes effect, even without realizing it. (Forest, 2021) (Forest, 2021) (Samantha Bradshaw et al., 2020), (Samantha Bradshaw et al., 2020)
Closing: Thinking Independently as the Last Fortress
The effective bandwagon technique is not because the people or the target country are less intelligent. Its effectiveness lies in the use of something fundamental, namely, the desire to side with the right side and the fear of the consequences of loneliness. In the context of international relations, the consequences can be diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, or loss of access to security alliances. This pressure prompted many countries to go with the flow even though the currents were made up of the Oxford Internet Institute emphasizing that to counter the modern bandwagon propaganda operation, goodwill alone is not enough. It requires a real combination that includes the state’s ability to detect information manipulation early on and the public’s critical awareness of the narrative it constructs, as well as a serious investment in an analytical capacity that is completely independent of the influence of great powers. The state can verify claims about its own ‘international consensus’ and not only rely on information crowded in the media or digital platforms. A state that has true sovereignty in the era of this global information war. Ultimately, the most effective weapon against bandwagon propaganda is the ability to question things in a simple but critical way: is it true that everyone is involved, or is it just an illusion deliberately created to force your involvement? (Samantha Bradshaw et al., 2020)
Shah’s party represents a reformist wave reshaping the Himalayan nation’s politics since last year’s youth-led uprising.
Published On 8 Mar 20268 Mar 2026
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Nepal’s centrist Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) of rapper-turned-politician Balendra Shah has secured a majority in the direct parliamentary elections and is heading for a landslide, according to official results and election commission trends.
The 35-year-old’s RSP party was also leading in proportional representation vote, according to results declared until early Sunday, in the country’s first election since last year’s youth-led uprising which toppled the government.
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Elections on Thursday chose a new 275-member House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, with 165 seats chosen directly, and 110 by a proportional representation vote.
Shah’s RSP has already won nearly 100 of 165 directly elected seats and is leading in over a dozen other constituencies in the results published by Nepal’s Election Commission early on Sunday.
Shah, widely known simply as “Balen”, himself on Saturday defeated the veteran four-time Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli – whose Marxist-led government was ousted in the protests last year – in his own seat in a southeastern district, securing almost four times as many votes as Oli.
His victory over the 74-year-old Oli, and his rise from the capital Kathmandu’s mayor to potential prime minister, marks one of the most dramatic results in recent Nepali politics.
He highlighted health and education for poor Nepalis as a key focus of his campaign, which rode a wave of public anger towards traditional political parties. He said the vote reflected his refusal to take “the easy way out” and signalled a reckoning with the “problems and betrayals that have affected the country”.
Oil congratulated Shah in a post on X, wishing him a “smooth and successful” term.
[Translation: Balenu Babu, Congratulations to you for the victory! May your five-year tenure be smooth and successful—heartfelt best wishes!]
Neighbouring India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Saturday said the successful and peaceful conduct of elections in Nepal was a “proud moment” in the country’s “democratic journey”.
“It is heartening to see my Nepali sisters and brothers exercise their democratic rights so vibrantly,” Modi wrote on X. “This historic milestone is a proud moment in Nepal’s democratic journey.”
Modi assured of working together with the new government. “As a close friend and neighbour, India remains steadfast in its commitment to working closely with the people of Nepal and their new Government to scale new heights of shared peace, progress and prosperity.”
‘Shake up the status quo’
Shah trained as a civil engineer before breaking through as one of Nepal’s most prominent rappers, releasing conscious music targeting corruption and inequality that later became anthems of the September protests.
His 2022 election as Kathmandu’s first independent mayor was also a major upset for the political establishment at the time. The RSP, his party, founded the same year, was built on a similar anti-establishment platform.
Its campaign before Thursday’s vote was highly organised, with a more-than-660-person social media operation and significant funding from the Nepali diaspora, particularly in the United States.
“The nation was fed up with the old corrupt leaders,” said Birendra Kumar Mehta, a member of RSP’s central committee.
The September protests, initially triggered by a government ban on social media platforms, rapidly escalated into a mass movement against corruption and economic stagnation. At least 77 people were killed.
Shah emerged as a figurehead of the protests, and his song Nepal Haseko, Nepal Smiling, accumulated more than 10 million YouTube views during the unrest. His victory reflects a growing generational divide in the country.
More than 40 percent of Nepal’s nearly 30 million people are under 35, yet the leadership of its established parties has remained in its 70s.
Nepalese journalist Pranaya Rana described Shah to Al Jazeera as embodying “the outsider spirit that many young Nepalis are looking for to shake up the status quo”.
Flames engulfed Kuwait’s Public Institution for Social Security high-rise headquarters after it was hit by a suspected drone amid a wave of Iranian aerial strikes on the country.
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
As expected, Iran has repeatedly targeted prized missile defense radars across the Middle East in retaliation for the joint U.S.-Israeli air campaign that is ongoing. Iran’s attacks on high-value radars that enable the region’s missile defense capabilities appear to have succeeded on multiple occasions. The irony that lower-end long-range kamikaze drones are perhaps the biggest threat to extremely advanced radars capable of providing telemetry for intercepting targets traveling at hypersonic speeds, sometimes in space, is glaring. The losses of the radars and/or damage to their facilities should finally serve as a stark wake-up call regarding the vulnerability of these critical but largely static assets.
Based on the information at hand, it appears that Iran has been able to destroy one U.S. AN/TPY-2 radar in Jordan and damage the massive American-made AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar, prompting immediate concerns about available radar coverage to help respond to further barrages. There are strong indications that a number of other similar systems have been destroyed or damaged, as well.
An Army Navy / Transportable Radar Surveillance (AN/TPY-2) positioned in the Kwajalein Atoll during the FTI-01 flight test. The AN/TPY-2 radar tracked the ballistic missile targets and provided data to missile defense systems to engage and intercept. (DoW) Missile Defense Agency
For some general context to start, Iran and/or its regional proxies have hit targets in a total of 12 countries since the start of the current conflict. Iranian retaliatory attacks utilizing ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as long-range kamikaze drones, have significantly declined in recent days, but are still being carried out. Countries in the region are so far claiming very high interception rates of incoming threats, but some missiles and drones are clearly making it to their targets.
Iran has attacked a wide array of different targets, military and non-military, but there has been a clear concerted effort to go after air and missile defense radars in the region as part of the retaliatory campaign. This is to be expected given that the loss of key radars, even temporarily, risks degrading further efforts to intercept Iranian missiles and drones, hence these weapons can succeed at a higher rate. Taking out missile defense radars at very high-value sites can leave those areas far more vulnerable to follow-on attacks, as well. Striking these radars also reduces their user’s general situational awareness in the region, and can even have strategic implications beyond the region, too.
It’s also worth noting that these radars are extremely expensive and take years to replace.
Iran’s attacks on radars so far
This past week, CNN obtained imagery from Planet Labs showing an AN/TPY-2 radar damaged, or even possibly destroyed, following an Iranian attack on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Muwaffaq Salti has long been a major regional hub for U.S. operations, and is being very actively utilized in the current conflict. It has the greatest concentration of U.S. tactical aircraft in the region, and thus is an extremely important target, where even one ballistic missile landing on an apron could destroy multiple prized fighter aircraft and take the lives of U.S. service members.
NEW: The radar for a THAAD system was struck and apparently destroyed in Jordan while two other THAAD radar systems may have been hit in the UAE, satellite images show – w/ @ThomasBordeaux7https://t.co/qiuWVQgyda
— Gianluca Mezzofiore (@GianlucaMezzo) March 5, 2026
The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that the U.S. military was rushing to replace the AN/TPY-2 at Muwaffaq Salti, lending credence to the assessment that damage from the Iranian attack was at least substantial. There is a picture, seen below, circulating on social media that is said to show the AN/TPY-2 at Muwaffaq Salti having been clearly knocked out, but it remains unverified and, in an age of increasingly impressive AI fakes, should be treated as such.
Photos have now confirmed the destruction of a AN/TPY-2 Forward Based X-band Transportable Radar operated by the U.S. Army, following an Iranian drone attack earlier this week targeting Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. The AN/TPY-2 is the primary ground-based air surveillance… pic.twitter.com/54QyQCxNVW
The active electronically-scanned array AN/TPY-2 is primarily associated with the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-ballistic missile system, but it also has a demonstrated ability to feed data to Patriot surface-to-air missile systems. THAAD is a key upper-tier defensive system deployed to the Middle East that is capable of swatting down Iran’s most capable missiles from the end of their midcourse stage of flight and through their terminal stage. AN/TPY-2 radars can also be deployed as standalone sensors in a larger integrated air defense network. The radar is trailer-mounted and technically road mobile, but is not designed to be used on the move or very rapidly relocated from one place to another.
A stock picture of an AN/TPY-2 radar. US Army
CNN has reported that additional Planet Labs imagery indicates that AN/TPY-2 and their infrastructure were also at least targeted and possibly damaged in Iranian attacks on THAAD batteries belonging to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), one at Al Ruwais and another at Al Sader, and another one in Saudi Arabia near Prince Sultan Air Base. The New York Times also obtained satellite imagery showing that the site at Al Ruwais had at least come under attack. The full extent of the damage at any of these sites remains unclear.
A compound was damaged on Al Dhafra Air Base, UAE. Sat dishes were visible at the site as recently as mid-June of last year. It is unclear if they were still there when strikes occurred, but Iran struck the same area again on Monday. pic.twitter.com/nRyb7c6Kj5
A satellite image taken on March 1 shows smoke rising from a radar site near the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia, where dozens of American planes are stationed.
At the site, a tent previously used to shelter a radar system for a nearby THAAD battery was badly charred and… pic.twitter.com/rSbEdtOvwf
— Gianluca Mezzofiore (@GianlucaMezzo) March 6, 2026
Satellite imagery from Planet Labs, obtained by the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, has also confirmed that the very large, fully static AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar was damaged in an Iranian attack on the first day of the conflict. At least one of the radar’s three arrays was hit, and there are also signs of a possible fire.
Confirmed the AN/FPS-132 phased array radar in Qatar was damaged by Iran, thanks to an incredible image from our friends @planet
Debris from the damaged face has fallen on the roof of the main building and there is water runoff from the firefighting effort pic.twitter.com/AxzteEug7P
There are multiple versions of the giant AN/FPS-132, all of which are fixed-site solid-state phased array radar systems primarily to provide early warning of incoming ballistic missile strikes. As noted, the one in Qatar has three faces, offering 360-degree coverage, but there are also variants with only two faces. The AN/FPS-132 is part of a larger group of broadly related strategic early warning types that are also in U.S. military service at multiple sites in the United States, as well as in Greenland. The Royal Air Force (RAF) in the United Kingdom operates another one of these radars at its RAF Fylingdales base.
A stock picture of a version of the AN/FPS-132 radar. USAF
Since the first day of the current conflict, claims have been circulating that Iran was able to at least damage a U.S. AN/TPS-59 active electronically-scanned array ballistic missile defense radar in Manama, Bahrain. This appears to be based on the video below, showing a kamikaze drone hitting a large spherical radome at Naval Support Activity (NSA) Bahrain, a U.S. Navy facility in the country that is home to the headquarters of the U.S. Fifth Fleet.
Footage of an Iranian attack drone slamming into the headquarters of the US Navy’s 5th Fleet at Naval Support Activity (NSA) Bahrain moments ago. pic.twitter.com/wHbje3eiiy
However, Planet Labs imagery that The New York Times subsequently obtained has been assessed to instead show damage to what are understood to be large satellite communications terminals at NSA Bahrain. Like larger radars, these terminals also often sit inside spherical radomes. There are clear signs that communications arrays like this have been a major target of Iranian retaliation strikes on bases across the Middle East, as well.
A tent surrounded by satellite dishes was destroyed at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Some of the dishes were most likely damaged as well. Al Udeid is the regional headquarters for the US Central Command, and was similarly struck by Iran last June. pic.twitter.com/TyuqZWHUL3
Yesterday, Iran’s PressTV claimed that the Iranian Navy had launched a kamikaze drone attack targeting “strategic carbon-based radar installations at the Sdot Micha facility.” While TWZ cannot independently confirm whether such an attack was launched, let alone was successful, it does highlight continued Iranian targeting of key missile defense radars. Sdot Micha Air Base in Israel hosts Arrow-series anti-ballistic missile defense systems. Elta’s Green Pine, which is analogous in some very broad respects to AN/TPY-2, is the main radar associated with these anti-missile systems.
Costly losses of key capabilities
Concerns have been raised about the immediate impacts from the loss of the AN/TPY-2 and damage to the AN/FPS-132, given that Iranian retaliatory attacks have significantly slowed, but not stopped. There are claims now, said to have originated from a report from Channel 14 in Israel, that malfunctioning and/or damaged U.S. radars have caused delays in early warning alerts about incoming Iranian missiles. TWZ has been unable to find an original source for these assertions, and they remain very much unconfirmed at this time. Regardless, it is hard not to see how losses of these systems could cause at least some degradation in total coverage, even if other land based and sea-based systems (Aegis BMD) can help with filling in some coverage.
The United States, Israel, and Gulf Arab states do have other air and missile defense radars positioned in the Middle East, or that could otherwise help fill any resulting gaps. At the same time, there are only a small number of systems that are at all equivalent to the AN/TPY-2, let alone the AN/FPS-132. Only 16 AN/TPY-2s are understood to have been produced to date, in total, for all customers. The current cost of one of those radars is generally pegged at around $250 to $300 million. When the U.S. government approved the sale of the AN/FPS-132 radar, as well as various ancillary items and services, to Qatar in 2013, that entire package had an estimated value of $1.1 billion, or just over $2.1 billion today when adjusted for inflation. Any of these systems takes years to procure.
🇺🇸 PSA: Fast Facts on AN/TPY-2 (radar system used by THAAD)
16 produced to date, 13 US Army, 2 UAE, 1 KSA, 6 more pending for KSA, none on order for US Army.
8 deployed as part of US THAAD batteries, 5 Forward Based Mode (deployed/operated by US Army in Japan [2], Israel,… pic.twitter.com/bD7gHpA3ib
Furthermore, the U.S. military and its allies have spent years (and billions of dollars) building a regional missile defense shield, with AN/TPY-2s and the AN/FPS-132 in Qatar being core components thereof. Though Iran and its expanding ballistic missile arsenal have been the driving factors behind those efforts, the U.S. government also sees these assets as being a key element of its global missile defense architecture. As noted, the Qatari AN/FPS-132 provides 360-degree coverage that is not limited to scanning for threats emanating from Iran. Houthi militants in Yemen to the south, long backed by Iran, have amassed a substantial arsenal of ballistic missiles, as well as cruise missiles and long-range kamikaze drones, and have used it to attack Gulf Arab states in the past. As an aside, the UAE was the first to employ THAAD in combat back in 2022, using the system to knock down an incoming Houthi ballistic missile.
Though more than a decade old now, this 2015 graphic from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency still gives a good sense of how AN/TPY-2s, as well as AN/FPS-132s and related designs, form a global ballistic missile defense sensor ecosystem. US Missile Defense Agency
More serious ramifications
Strategic air and missile architectures, in general, exist in a world now where the threats they face are not limited to very-long-range standoff capabilities possessed only by peer or near-peer adversaries.
It used to be, generally, that you had to fire a ballistic missile or high-end cruise missile in an attempt to strike one of these systems. Now, long-range one-way-attack drones, as well as increasingly capable cruise and ballistic missiles, continue to proliferate steadily, including to smaller nation-state armed forces and even non-state actors. An attack could even come from a small drone with a C4 charge launched from a fishing trawler 10 miles away from one of these critical radar installations. The threat of these kinds of near-field attacks has largely been overlooked for years, even as the low-end drone threat has exploded and ‘democratized’ precision-guided weaponry, as they did not fit the established aerial threat matrix and the countermeasures used to repel those threats.
Though we have not seen it yet in the course of the current conflict with Iran, the threat of more localized attacks by smaller weaponized drones, in particular, is very real and only set to grow. This was definitely shown by Ukraine’s Operation Spiderweb’s unprecedented covert attacks on multiple airbases across Russia last year. Israel also employed near-field drone and missile attacks to destroy Iranian air defenses in the opening phases of the 12 Day War last June. These operations were massively successful and knocked out Iran’s most critical air defenses, allowing for long-range munitions to strike their targets unimpeded. TWZ had been calling attention to this issue for years beforehand, including back in 2019 after drones were reportedly spotted over the U.S. Army THAAD site, with its AN/TPY-2 radar, on Guam.
СБУ показала унікальні кадри спецоперації «Павутина», у результаті якої уражено 41 військовий літак стратегічної авіації рф
CBS News also reported this past week that quadcopter-type drones may have been surveilling the Shuaiba port in Kuwait before all-out hostilities erupted. Six U.S. service members were killed, and more were wounded, in an Iranian retaliatory attack on a U.S. logistics operations center at Shuaiba on March 1.
Iranian intelligence utilized various means to track service members after they left the base.
➡️ In anticipation of the offensive and expected retaliation to include strikes on Camp Arifjan, the Tactical Ops Center (TOC) was moved to the same facility at the port used during… https://t.co/R8VcPGIESm
Large, high-value, static and semi-static radars are fragile, to begin with. Domes and other structures can be built around them to help protect them from the elements, but they still need to allow for signals to be sent out and received. This inherently limits options for more physical hardening. Since these radars are typically fixed in place permanently or semi-permanently, their locations are also easier to determine and then target using a set of basic map coordinates. This is highlighted by how quickly news outlets have been able to locate these sites and then assess damage to them from commercially available satellite imagery.
The fragility of large radars also means that what might seem to be minor damage to the casual observer could actually be enough for a mission kill that takes the system offline, or at least degrades its functionality greatly, for a protracted period of time. Depending on the radar, it might not take a very large munition at all to cause a sufficient degree of damage. Just a small drone packing a grenade-sized explosive can punch a hole in one of these fragile arrays, putting it out of action for a very long period of time.
“With that said, America’s preeminent adversaries in the entire region would make taking out the THAAD battery on Guam a top priority during a conflict or even as part of a limited demonstration of force. Why barrage it with ballistic missiles or attempt a cruise missile launch from a forward-deployed submarine or even a clandestine commando raid when you can just fly a drone loaded with explosives into it? And no, you don’t need some high-end drone system to do this as real-world events have highlighted many times over. Drug cartels are now whacking their enemies with off-the-shelf drone-borne improvised explosive devices and even U.S. allies are actually manufacturing hobby-like drones just for this purpose. Somewhat more sophisticated types can be launched from longer distances and can even home in on radar or other RF emissions sources, like THAAD’s powerful AN/TPY-2 Radar and data-links, autonomously, beyond just striking a certain point on a map.”
“Simply put, ‘shooting the archer,’ in this case an advanced anti-ballistic missile system that protects America’s most strategic base in the entire region, via a relatively cheap drone is both an absurdly obvious and terrifyingly ironic tactic—the U.S. can shoot down ballistic missiles, but the critical systems used to do so remain extremely vulnerable to the lowliest of airborne threats—cheap drones.”
A THAAD launcher on Guam. US Army
The scale and scope of Iran’s retaliatory attacks so far, while clearly threatening, pale in comparison to what one would expect to see in a major high-end fight between the United States and China in the Pacific. The overall ramifications would also be more severe.
Beyond the more immediate impacts of losing this kind of strategic radar coverage, there are far larger implications. In some cases, these radars are designed to provide critical early warning and verification of incoming nuclear strikes, or other large-scale attacks by a major adversary, targeting a nation’s home soil. They are critical parts of the nuclear deterrent. As such, losing these sensors can have major downstream impacts on strategic decision-making cycles based on concerns about what suddenly is not being seen. Fewer radars also means fewer ways to double-check that a track is not a false positive in a scenario where the total available decision-making time could be seriously truncated, to begin with. These are concerns TWZ explicitly highlighted after Ukraine’s attack on the Armavir Radar Station in Russia in 2024.
It should be clear at this point that threats to strategic radar systems that Iran’s attacks in the past week have thrust into the public eye are not new. Similarly, this highlights how the United States, and others globally, remain behind the curve when it comes to establishing deeper, layered defenses to better protect these prized assets. This was already evidenced by Ukraine’s attack on the Armavir Radar Station in Russia in 2024.
US Army Green Berets, one armed with a Stinger shoulder-fired heat-seeking surface-to-air missile, or man-portable air defense system (MANPADS), seen in front of the AN/FPS-108Cobra Dane strategic early warning and tracking radar in Alaska during an exercise in 2021. NORTHCOM/NORAD
A view of the Pave Paws radar at Leshan, Taiwan. via fas.org
Even a layered defense posture might not be enough, especially in the face of a large volume and/or complex attack involving multiple types of missiles and/or drones. Those threats could also be coming from very different vectors at once, and fired from very disparate launch points on land, at sea, or in the air. Achieving overmatch against fixed defenses is also a glaring vulnerability. An enemy can calculate how many munitions, and what mix of munitions, are required to overwhelm known defenses at a key location. This is especially true for largely static defensive arrangements. Once critical terrestrial sensors are taken out, attacking other targets that were under the defensive umbrella they helped enable can become far easier.
New eyes in space
Perhaps the biggest takeaway here is that the combat actions by Iran this week provide heft to the arguments for migrating missile tracking capabilities outside of the atmosphere. While advanced and resilient missile tracking layers in space may not replace all their terrestrial counterparts, they would provide much-needed redundancy and augmentation of their capabilities.
The U.S. Air Force and U.S. Space Force are also very eager to move most, if not all, of the airborne target warning sensor layer into orbit, and to do the same when it comes to persistent tracking of targets on the ground and at sea. Relevant space-based capabilities are still years away from becoming a reality, at least at the required scale.
Shifting the focus to sensors in orbit is not without its own risks, either. U.S. officials regularly highlight ever-growing threats to assets in space, and are now openly talking about the need for satellites to be able to fight back, as you can read more about here. As part of its work on new space-based sensor infrastructure, the U.S. military has been investing heavily in new distributed constellations with large numbers of smaller satellites to increase resiliency to attacks.
Regardless, the Pentagon is very bullish in moving missile tracking into orbit, and doing so with more resilient constellations than with a handful of traditional satellites. Work is deeply underway in proving out this technology, which would enable the entire missile defense architecture globally. President Trump’s Golden Dome initiative will need this capability in order to accomplish its lofty goals. But accelerating the development and deployment of this kind of capability is very costly and we may see a major boost in funding for it after this war ends.
Overall, more details about the scope and scale of damage to radars and other assets from Iranian retaliatory attacks are likely to continue to emerge. What we’ve already seen points to a need for a further reassessment of the vulnerabilities of critical strategic air and missile defense radars and what is needed to adequately defend them, including moving them outside of the Earth’s atmosphere.
