NEWS

Caracas, March 20, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The US Treasury Department has issued a new sanctions waiver as the Trump administration seeks to deepen US control over Venezuela’s oil sector.

General License 52 (GL52), published on Wednesday, authorizes US entities to engage in transactions with Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA under conditions that limit Venezuelan sovereignty.

An updated FAQ from the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control clarified that the exemption allows US companies to engage in activities related to the exportation of Venezuelan-origin oil products, export diluents and inputs to Venezuela as well as enter into new contracts for oil and gas production.

However, in line with recent US licenses, GL52 mandates that all tax, royalty, and dividend payments be made into US Treasury-controlled accounts.

Following the January 3 US military strikes and kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, the Trump administration has taken control over Venezuelan crude exports while imposing conditions favorable to Western energy conglomerates.

Thus far, Washington has returned US $500 million out of an initial January deal worth $2 billion. US authorities have also confirmed Venezuelan imports of US-manufactured medicines and medical equipment. Trump officials had vowed that US energy revenues could only be used for purchases from US suppliers and that Caracas would need to submit a “budget request” to access its funds.

The White House issued GL52 amid soaring energy prices caused by the US and Israeli war against Iran. Tehran has responded to massive bombings by targeting US military assets in the region and closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz.

Last week, the US Treasury amended licenses to allow US imports of fertilizers from Venezuela, as well as repair works in the South American country’s electric grid. Venezuela’s electrical infrastructure remains in a precarious state after years of US sanctions, and expanded power capacity is a precondition for recovery of the oil industry.

Despite the broadened waivers for corporations hand-picked by the White House to engage with Venezuela, PDVSA and its subsidiaries remain under financial sanctions, while third-country firms risk secondary sanctions should they enter into agreements without a US Treasury special license.

In late January, Venezuelan authorities approved a pro-business overhaul of the country’s Hydrocarbon Law, granting private companies reduced fiscal responsibilities, increased control over production and exports, and the possibility of taking disputes to international arbitration bodies.

Chevron and Shell, with US Treasury approval, were the first companies to take advantage of the new incentives. Chevron’s Petropiar joint venture with PDVSA was granted a new 500 square-kilometer bloc to drill for extra-heavy crude in the Orinoco Oil Belt, while Shell is set to take over light and medium crude and natural gas operations in the eastern state of Monagas.

Last week, European energy giants Eni and Repsol, who were also given the inside track by the White House, announced an agreement with the Venezuelan government for the development of the Cardón IV offshore natural gas project.

Eni and Repsol each own 50 percent stakes in Cardón IV, which has been in operation since 2009. Neither firm nor Caracas offered details on the renewed agreement, though both enterprises had lobbied for improved conditions and mechanisms to recoup accumulated debt due to US sanctions.

According to Bloomberg, ONGC Videsh (India), Maha Capital AB (Sweden), and J&F Investimentos (Brazil) are among the companies likely to receive special licenses for involvement in Venezuela’s oil sector as Washington seeks to counter rising crude prices. Nevertheless, analysts stress that the Venezuelan oil industry does not have the capacity to significantly ramp up output in the near future.

On March 11, the Trump administration formally recognized Acting President Delcy Rodríguez as Venezuela’s “sole authority,” days after Venezuela and the US reestablished diplomatic ties following a seven-year hiatus.

On Monday, Rodríguez appointed new executive boards for PDVSA’s US-based affiliates, including refiner CITGO. Asdrúbal Chávez, who held multiple roles in both PDVSA and CITGO since the 2000s, was picked as president of CITGO and its parent company, PDV Holding. At the time of writing, US authorities have not commented on the proposed new leadership for the companies, which had been run by the US-backed opposition since 2019.

CITGO is currently in the closing stages of a court-mandated auction that will see Venezuela lose ownership of its most prized foreign asset to address creditor claims against the country. The sale to Amber Energy, a subsidiary of vulture fund Elliott Management, is pending authorization from the US Treasury Department.

Edited by Lucas Koerner in Fusagasugá, Colombia.

“Cuba, yes! Blockade, no!” An aid flotilla from Mexico is sailing for Cuba as the country suffers under a tightening US fuel blockade.

Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro has been named in two separate criminal investigations led by prosecutors in the United States.

The New York Times was the first to report the existence of the two probes on Friday, citing sources familiar with the proceedings.

Media reports indicate that Petro is not personally the target of the investigations, which focus on drug-smuggling in Latin America.

But according to the Times, US attorneys in Brooklyn and Manhattan are looking into whether Petro met with drug traffickers and solicited donations from them for his 2022 presidential campaign. Al Jazeera has not independently verified the Times report.

By Friday afternoon, Petro had issued a statement denying the claims, which threaten to reopen the rift between the US and Colombia.

“In Colombia, there is not a single investigation into my relationship with drug traffickers, for one simple reason: I have never in my life spoken with a drug trafficker,” Petro wrote on the social media platform X.

He added that he told campaign managers to never accept donations from bankers or drug traffickers.

The investigations in the US, he argued, would ultimately exonerate him, and he blamed Colombia’s right-wing opposition for stirring controversy.

“So, the proceedings in the US will help me to dismantle the accusations of the Colombian far right, which is indeed closely linked to Colombian drug traffickers,” Petro said.

Petro has not been charged with any crimes, and the investigations are in their initial stages, according to the Times.

But experts say the timing of the report is significant, as it comes barely two and a half months before Colombia is set to hold a closely watched presidential election on May 31.

“If this would have happened a week before the first round, it would be election interference,” Sergio Guzman, director at Colombia Risk Analysis, a security think tank, told Al Jazeera.

“This seems to be more of a warning that shows how the US could influence the outcome of the election.”

Petro, Colombia’s first left-wing president, is limited to a single term in office, but the election is likely to be a referendum on his four years in office.

It will also be a test for Petro’s Historic Pact coalition, whose candidate, Ivan Cepeda, is currently leading in the polls.

But United States President Donald Trump has repeatedly sought to boost the prospects of right-wing candidates in Latin America. He and Petro have been at loggerheads since Trump returned to office in January 2025.

Their feud came to a head in January after the US attacked Venezuela and abducted its president, Nicolas Maduro.

Shortly afterwards, a reporter asked if the US would take military action against Colombia. Trump replied: “It sounds good to me.”

To cool tensions, Trump and Petro held a call afterwards and agreed to meet.

Petro then visited the White House in early February to mend his often-combative relationship with Trump. While there, the Colombian delegation interacted with their counterparts, including Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Republican Senator Bernie Moreno, a longtime critic of Petro’s government, was also in attendance. Guzman believes the senator’s presence was significant.

“We don’t have a lot of straightforward answers about what were the commitments during that meeting, but Bernie Moreno did say that he wanted Petro not to be as involved in elections,” Guzman told Al Jazeera.

“And guess what? Petro is fully involved in the elections.”

The meeting also addressed collaborative efforts to combat drug trafficking, an issue core to Trump’s foreign policy.

Both presidents walked away from the meeting in good spirits, with Petro sharing a photo signed by Trump that read, “Gustavo – a great honor. I love Colombia.”

But Petro and Trump have long been at odds over how to tamp down on narcotics smuggling.

Colombia, the region’s largest producer of cocaine, has been criticised by the Trump administration for what it sees as soft-on-crime policies, including negotiations with armed groups.

Petro, meanwhile, has denounced the US for its lethal tactics, calling them tantamount to murder.

The US, for instance, has bombed at least 46 alleged drug boats and vessels in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean. Some of the 159 people killed were Colombian citizens.

The US has also floated the idea of conducting military attacks in Latin America against suspected drug traffickers, and it recently began joint operations against gangs in Ecuador, Colombia’s neighbour.

Analysts say actions like these have Latin American leaders on edge.

Trump’s aggressive manoeuvres suggest that the US president is willing to jeopardise “the sovereignty and peace of every nation” in his campaign against illicit drugs, according to Rodrigo Pombo Cajiao, a constitutional law professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana.

Pombo Cajaio pointed to the US abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro on January 3. Maduro was a longtime adversary of Trump, and he is currently being held in prison in New York on drug-related charges.

“Every political leader in the region has been put on notice” after that abduction, Pombo Cajiao said.

“As the world’s leading producer of cocaine, Colombia found itself at high risk of judicial prosecution” from the US, he added.

Currently, Petro’s Historic Pact is leading May’s presidential race. A GAD3 poll released this week suggested Cepeda is ahead in the polls with 35 percent voter approval, ahead of far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella, who had 21 percent.

Footage has emerged that purportedly shows a Saab 340 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft operating over Ukraine. If legitimate, this would be the first time that the radar plane has been seen in Ukrainian service, as far as we know, and would mark an important new capability for Ukraine, and one that we have discussed in depth in the past.

The video in question appears to have been first posted to a Russian Telegram account and clearly shows one of the aircraft, with its distinctive ‘balance beam’ radar fairing on the upper fuselage, in level flight during the daytime. The date and location of the video cannot be confirmed. It should also be noted that we cannot verify the footage itself, but there is nothing to immediately suggest it may have been doctored.

As mentioned, this appears to be the first time we have ever seen one of the Ukrainian Air Force’s two Saab 340 AEW&C planes, although there are suggestions that the type has been flying in Ukrainian skies for some time.

In April of last year, open-source flight-tracking platforms suggested that a possible Ukrainian radar plane was operating in the Lviv region, in western Ukraine, flying circuits and using the callsign WELCOME. Before that, an unidentified aircraft with the same callsign was observed operating in airspace near Poland and Hungary. If true, that suggests that the track over Lviv may have been a post-delivery acceptance or calibration flight. It’s also worth noting that transponders can be manipulated to provide false aircraft tracks, too.

Stockholm’s transfer of two Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft to Ukraine was announced in May 2024, as we reported at the time. The donation was part of the biggest Swedish military aid package for Ukraine up to that point, worth around $1.25 billion.

At the time, it was said that it would take around a year to train the aircrew and maintenance personnel, as well as prepare the ground facilities for the new aircraft.

The Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft is known in Swedish military service as the ASC 890 and alternatively as the S 100D Argus. The Swedish Air Force operated two of these aircraft, with both understood to have been provided to Kyiv. Another two ex-Swedish Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft are operated by Thailand, and another pair were sold to Poland, having previously been operated by the United Arab Emirates.

Royal Thai Air Force Gripen and Saab 340 Erieye AEW

For Ukraine, the significance of the Saab 340 AEW&C is hard to overstate.

It brings an entirely new capability for the Ukrainian Air Force, which has never operated any type of AEW&C platform.

The core of the aircraft is its Saab Erieye active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. Carried atop the fuselage, this can detect air and sea targets at ranges of up to around 280 miles, with the aircraft typically operating at an altitude of 20,000 feet. Reportedly, the AESA system can track up to 1,000 airborne and 500 surface targets simultaneously.

Erieye explained

All this data is handled by three mission crew: a mission control officer, a combat control operator, and a surveillance operator. It can also be downlinked to ground stations and to other aircraft, at least in theory, of which more later.

Unlike a surface-based air defense radar, the Erieye provides a ‘lookdown’ capability. Without the line-of-sight limitations of terrain, the radar will be especially useful for detecting low-flying Russian drones and cruise missiles. These are otherwise notably tricky targets, due to the low altitudes at which they fly and their small radar signatures. With that in mind, the aircraft should provide Ukraine’s air defenses with a huge situational-awareness boost.

Within its layered air defense network, Ukraine relies heavily on crewed fighter jets (as well as other aircraft platforms) to intercept drones and cruise missiles. Adding the Saab 340 AEW&C to the equation, the radar plane should be able to work as a fighter controller, detecting targets, prioritizing them, and then assigning them to the fighters for interception. Equally, this data could be provided to other air defense assets.

Especially useful in this regard would be the NATO-standard Link 16 datalink communications system. This would, in theory, be compatible with Ukraine’s F-16 and Mirage 2000 fighters, as well as Western-supplied ground-based air defense systems.

Український пілот про ефективність Mirage2000/Ukrainian Pilot on the Effectiveness of the Mirage2000

However, in late 2024, it was reported that the F-16s donated to Ukraine have had Link 16 systems removed or disabled, due to U.S. worries that they could end up in Russian hands.

This would deprive those fighters of a real-time air defense ‘picture’ sourced from the Erieye radar, and, at this point, it’s unclear if the Link 16 connectivity is available to Ukraine.

As of March 2025, it was reported that the delivery of the radar planes was on track, and they would be able to operate effectively with Ukraine’s F-16s.

“The timing of ASC 890 deliveries is linked to when certain modifications to F-16 fighters will be ready. There is no delay in the transfer of airborne early warning aircraft to Ukraine,” the Lithuanian Delfi news agency reported. This sounds very much like a reference to enabling the Link 16 connectivity.

However, even without Link 16, the Saab 340 AEW&C is able to provide much-enhanced air and sea surveillance for Ukraine.

Later versions of the Erieye radar also have a synthetic aperture radar and ground moving target indication (SAR/GMTI) capability, although it’s not clear if Ukraine has received that either. While SAR provides detailed image-like mapping of the ground at standoff ranges, GMTI detects and tracks movements on the ground over time, which would allow monitoring of Russian troop movements.

Should Ukraine’s ambitious plans to buy Saab Gripen fighters in the future materialize, the combination of these jets and the Saab 340 AEW&C could make a tailor-made solution for air defense and other missions.

For all its capabilities, the Saab 340 AEW&C will also be a prime target for Russia.

Russia’s own A-50 Mainstay AEW&C aircraft have been repeatedly targeted by Ukraine, in recognition of their value as force multipliers.

Russia was estimated to have nine A-50s in active service at the start of the full-scale invasion. Since then, there have been two combat losses, and another of these aircraft was damaged in a drone attack while on the ground at a base in Belarus, and its current status is unknown. More recently, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces claimed an A-50 had been hit in a strike on a maintenance facility in the Novgorod region of Russia.

This reality almost certainly means Ukraine operates the Saab radar planes from the far west of the country, likely moving them between airfields to reduce their exposure to airstrikes. Similar tactics are also employed by Ukrainian F-16s. With a maximum of two aircraft, round-the-clock coverage is also impossible, so one aircraft may well be kept on permanent ground alert to respond to particularly intensive Russian drone and missile barrages.

It is likely for this reason, too, that we have not seen anything of the Ukrainian Saab 340 AEW&C aircraft since their delivery.

With time, we will hopefully learn more about what these secretive assets are bringing to Ukraine’s air defenses and what kind of effect they are having on countering the near-constant Russian drone and missile attacks.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

Trump calls NATO cowardly over lack of support for Iran war, says Strait of Hormuz should be protected ‘by other nations who use it’.

A federal judge in the United States has agreed to block the administration of President Donald Trump from enforcing a policy limiting news reporters’ access to the Pentagon.

Friday’s ruling sides with The New York Times in its argument that key portions of the new rules are unlawful.

US District Judge Paul Friedman in Washington, DC, ruled that the Pentagon policy illegally restricts the press credentials of reporters who walked out of the building rather than agree to the new rules.

The Times sued the Pentagon and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in December, claiming the credentialing policy violates the journalists’ constitutional rights to free speech and due process.

The current Pentagon press corps is comprised mostly of conservative outlets that agreed to the policy. Reporters from outlets that refused to consent to the new rules, including those from The Associated Press, have continued reporting on the military.

Friedman, who was nominated to the bench by Democratic President Bill Clinton, said the policy “fails to provide fair notice of what routine, lawful journalistic practices will result in the denial, suspension, or revocation” of Pentagon press credentials.

He ruled that the Pentagon policy ultimately violates the First and Fifth Amendment rights to free speech and due process.

“Those who drafted the First Amendment believed that the nation’s security requires a free press and an informed people and that such security is endangered by governmental suppression of political speech. That principle has preserved the nation’s security for almost 250 years. It must not be abandoned now,” the judge wrote.

Times lauds ruling

New York Times spokesperson Charlie Stadtlander said the newspaper believes the ruling “enforces the constitutionally protected rights for the free press in this country”.

“Americans deserve visibility into how their government is being run, and the actions the military is taking in their name and with their tax dollars,” Stadtlander said in a statement. “Today’s ruling reaffirms the right of The Times and other independent media to continue to ask questions on the public’s behalf.”

Theodore Boutrous, a lawyer who represented the Times at a hearing earlier this month, said in a statement that the court ruling is “a powerful rejection of the Pentagon’s effort to impede freedom of the press and the reporting of vital information to the American people during a time of war”.

The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the ruling.

It has argued that the policy imposes “common sense” rules that protect the military from the disclosure of national security information.

“The goal of that process is to prevent those who pose a security risk from having broad access to American military headquarters,” government lawyers wrote.

The Times’ legal team, meanwhile, claimed the policy is designed to silence unfavourable press coverage of President Trump’s administration.

“The First Amendment flatly prohibits the government from granting itself the unbridled power to restrict speech because the mere existence of such arbitrary authority can lead to self-censorship,” they wrote.

Weeding out ‘disfavoured’ journalists

The judge said he recognises that “national security must be protected, the security of our troops must be protected, and war plans must be protected”.

“But especially in light of the country’s recent incursion into Venezuela and its ongoing war with Iran, it is more important than ever that the public have access to information from a variety of perspectives about what its government is doing,” Friedman wrote.

Friedman said the “undisputed evidence” shows that the policy is designed to weed out “disfavored journalists” and replace them with those who are “on board and willing to serve” the government, a clear instance of illegal viewpoint discrimination.

“In sum, the Policy on its face makes any newsgathering and reporting not blessed by the Department a potential basis for the denial, suspension, or revocation of a journalist’s [credentials],” he wrote. “It provides no way for journalists to know how they may do their jobs without losing their credentials.”

The Pentagon had asked the judge to suspend his ruling for a week for an appeal. Friedman refused.

The judge ordered the Pentagon to reinstate the press credentials of seven Times journalists. But he said his decision to vacate the challenged policy terms applies to “all regulated parties”.

Friedman gave the Pentagon a week to file a written report on its compliance with the order.

The Times argued that the Pentagon has applied its own rules inconsistently. The newspaper noted that Trump ally Laura Loomer, a right-wing personality who agreed to the Pentagon policy, appeared to violate the Pentagon’s prohibition on soliciting unauthorised information by promoting her “tip line”.

The government didn’t object to Loomer’s tip line but concluded that a Washington Post tip line does violate its policy because it purportedly “targets” military personnel and department employees.

The judge said he does not see any meaningful difference between the two tip lines.

“But the problem is that nothing in the Policy explicitly prevents the Department from treating these two nearly identical tip lines differently,” Friedman added.

The Pentagon is reportedly sending the Wasp class amphibious assault ship USS Boxer and the rest of its Amphibious Ready Group (ARG), loaded with elements of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). This comes as the Trump administration is reported to be increasingly considering seizing or blockading Iran’s highly strategic Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf as part of a new phase of Operation Epic Fury.

It has now been widely reported that what is described as an “accelerated” deployment of the Boxer Amphibious Ready Group and the 11th MEU from the West Coast will be in support of Operation Epic Fury.

The Boxer Amphibious Ready Group also includes two other amphibious warfare ships, the San Antonio class USS Portland and the Whidbey Island class USS Comstock. The 11th MEU has roughly 2,500 personnel, in total, and includes air and ground components.

This follows reports last week that the America class amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli and its ARG, carrying elements of the 31st MEU, had also begun moving from the Pacific toward the Middle to support ongoing operations against Iran.

Axios reported today that the Trump administration could be leaning toward establishing a blockade around Iran’s Kharg Island, through which it exports much of its oil, or occupying it, citing unnamed officials. The central goal of doing this would be to step up pressure on the regime in Tehran to, in turn, force it to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic through that waterway has come to a virtual halt, which is causing massive reverberations across global energy markets.

“[Trump] wants Hormuz open. If he has to take Kharg Island to make it happen, that’s going to happen. If he decides to have a coastal invasion, that’s going to happen,” one official said, according to Axios. “But that decision hasn’t been made.”

The U.S. military carried out extensive strikes on Kharg Island this past weekend. A deployment of U.S. ground troops there would be a major escalation that could have significant ramifications, including domestically.

“We’ve always had boots on the ground in conflicts under every president, including Trump. I know this is a fixation in the media, and I get the politics, but the president is going to do what’s right,” a second official, who also said no decision has yet been made, said, per Axios.

Just yesterday, TWZ spoke with Joseph Votel, the former commander of U.S. Central Command, with a particular focus on the tumultuous Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20 percent of the world’s oil passes. You can read that interview here.

In the meantime, publicly available flight-tracking data indicates that the U.S. Navy is using MQ-4C Triton intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance drones to monitor Kharg Island as part of their patrols of the northern Persian Gulf.

Trump has warned that he might consider targeting oil facilities on the island if Iran or other countries “do anything to interfere” with the safe passage of ships through the strait.

Destroying or damaging oil infrastructure on Kharg could have unintended side effects, however. On the one hand, it would further push up global oil prices. The complex nature of infrastructure might take years to repair, which would compound this. In the long term, there is also the question of whether oil infrastructure here should be preserved for the benefit of a potential new Iranian government.

Any successor to the current regime would lose out on vital oil income, potentially driving further internal strife.

There is also the possibility that seizing the island and cutting off the current Iranian government from its most vital source of revenue could be used as a catalyst to bring about its fall.

Then there is the huge question about the kind of military effort that would be required to seize Kharg. This would require a large-scale, sustained operation and would be brought with risk. The island is only 20 miles from the Iranian mainland, putting whatever U.S. force is there at extreme risk of bombardment of multiple types. Getting amphibious assault ships through the Strait and into the Gulf would be an issue, as well, and those ships would be heavily targeted during transit and especially once inside the Gulf. With this in mind, a longer-range aviation assault would be most likely.

A naval blockade of the island might be easier to achieve in the short term, but it would run the risk of Iranian attacks, likely involving uncrewed surface vessels (USVs), drones, and other asymmetric options, as well as anti-ship cruise missiles, the use of which has been limited up to this point, as you can read about here.

As already noted, additional U.S. forces are headed to the region in the form of the Tripoli ARG and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU). While the deployment of the big-deck amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli had already been reported, we now know it is being supported by the amphibious transport docks USS San Diego (LPD-22) and USS New Orleans (LPD-18), thanks to publicly available ship-tracking data.

What exactly the next phase of Operation Epic Fury will look like could be clearer as the Navy amphibious warfare ships and the thousands of Marines they are carrying get closer to the Middle East.

UPDATES

UPDATE: 6:16 PM EST –

There are some mixed messages coming out of Washington about the future of Epic Fury.

President Donald Trump said he is considering “winding down” the war on Iran. His comments, delivered on his Truth Social account, come even though two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEUs) are steaming toward the Middle East and the Pentagon has reportedly drawn up plans to put American troops into Iran with the president’s approval.

Trump added that the U.S. could end the war effort even with the Iranians still closing the Strait of Hormuz.

“We are getting very close to meeting our objectives as we consider winding down our great Military efforts in the Middle East with respect to the Terrorist Regime of Iran,” Trump proclaimed.

He stated that the U.S. has: “(1) Completely degrading Iranian Missile Capability, Launchers, and everything else pertaining to them. (2) Destroying Iran’s Defense Industrial Base. (3) Eliminating their Navy and Air Force, including Anti Aircraft Weaponry. (4) Never allowing Iran to get even close to Nuclear Capability, and always being in a position where the U.S.A. can quickly and powerfully react to such a situation, should it take place. (5) Protecting, at the highest level, our Middle Eastern Allies, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and others.”

The Strait, Trump added, “will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn’t be necessary once Iran’s threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them.”

Our coverage has ended for the day. Stay tuned for more.

UPDATE: 5:15 PM EST –

Retired Marine Gen. James Mattis, who served as Defense Secretary and CENTCOM commander, weighed in on the war, saying he doesn’t believe regime change is likely.

Iranian state media warns Iran will target the UAE’s industrial port city of Ras Al-Khaimah if Iranian islands are again attacked from that nation, Arab News reported.

Workers in India’s textile hub Surat are returning home after days without cooking gas, as an LPG crisis linked to Iran war disruptions halts supplies. Industries face shutdowns, while authorities invoke emergency measures to prioritise households.

The war in the Middle East took a serious turn when Israel bombed Iran’s energy facilities, pushing Iran to step up attacks on its Gulf neighbours.

The damage has been significant and will take years to repair. It also has long-term consequences, with Qatar already warning of a reduction in exports.

The escalation is dangerous, experts say, as energy exports from the Gulf region account for a fifth of global output.

So, what are the risks of turning energy facilities into battlefields?

Presenter: Imran Khan

Guests:

Mohsen Baharvand – Former Iranian ambassador to the United Kingdom

Jim Walsh – Research associate in MIT’s security studies programme

John Sfakianakis – Chief economist at the Gulf Research Center

Chuck Norris, a former martial arts champion and 1980s action-film hero, has died at the age of 86, according to his family.

In a statement posted to Instagram on Friday, his family described Norris’s death as sudden.

“It is with heavy hearts that our family shares the sudden passing of our beloved Chuck Norris yesterday morning,” the Norris family wrote.

“While we would like to keep the circumstances private, please know that he was surrounded by his family and was at peace.”

According to the publication Variety, Norris had been hospitalised in Hawaii since Thursday, though details were not disclosed.

Norris was the six-time undefeated World Professional Middleweight Karate Champion from 1968 to 1974. But he rose to wider fame in a series of action films, including 1985’s Code of Silence, 1984’s Missing in Action and 1986’s The Delta Force.

He further cemented his status as a household name when he starred from 1993 to 2001 in the popular TV series Walker, Texas Ranger, playing a principled lawman.

Norris’s tough-guy image made him an internet meme in his later years, though he received pushback for his far-right political views and embrace of conspiracy theories.

His family expressed gratitude to fans for their prayers during his hospitalisation.

“He lived his life with faith, purpose, and an unwavering commitment to the people he loved,” the post read. “Through his work, discipline, and kindness, he inspired millions around the world and left a lasting impact on so many lives.”

‘The ultimate tough guy’

Norris starred in more than two dozen films, often portraying stoic loners, soldiers, lawmen and all-American heroes who captured criminals and rescued hostages.

He made his film debut in 1973’s The Way of the Dragon, where he famously faced martial arts icon Bruce Lee in Rome’s Colosseum.

In 1985, Time magazine dubbed him “the ultimate tough guy” and “the undisputed superstar” of the B-movie action genre.

On screen, Norris was known for his signature roundhouse kicks, shrugging off gunfire and dispatching opponents with ease. His tough-guy persona made him a box-office draw and a television staple.

Decades later, he joined fellow action stars Sylvester Stallone, Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis in 2012’s The Expendables 2, helping defeat a villain played by Belgian fighter Jean-Claude Van Damme.

He also became an unlikely internet phenomenon. In 2005, “Chuck Norris Facts”, a series of satirical jokes about his strength and masculinity, went viral and inspired several books.

The “Facts” included jokes like “Chuck Norris has a mug of nails instead of coffee in the morning” and “Chuck Norris doesn’t do push-ups; he pushes the Earth down.”

‘Texas has lost a legend’

Carlos Ray Norris was born on March 10, 1940, in Ryan, Oklahoma, the oldest of three brothers. The family moved to California after his parents divorced.

He described himself as extremely quiet and introverted as a young man, which he attributed to his father’s alcoholism and the family’s poverty.

“In school I was shy and inhibited,” Norris wrote in his 2004 memoir, Against All Odds: My Story. “If the teacher asked me to recite something aloud in front ‌of the ⁠class, I would just shake my head no.”

According to Norris, he was also not a natural athlete growing up, and he credited his martial arts career to intense training.

After graduating from school, he enlisted in the US Air Force in 1958. While stationed in South Korea, he learned Tang Soo Do, a form of karate, and other martial arts.

The future film star started teaching martial arts in California after his discharge. Actor Steve McQueen, who was one of Norris’s students, eventually encouraged him to try acting.

Tributes poured in following news of his death, including from political figures who shared Norris’s far-right leanings.

“Texas ‌has lost a legend,” Texas Governor Greg Abbott wrote on X, referencing Norris’s work on Walker, Texas Ranger.

“He electrified generations of conservatives. Giving them a passion and voice to fight for the principles that make America the greatest nation on earth.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also paid tribute, calling Norris “a great friend of Israel and a close personal friend”.

High-profile stars and artists also mourned Norris’s passing, including several of Norris’s colleagues.

Stallone, for instance, wrote in a statement, “I had a great time working with Chuck. He was All American in every way. Great man and my condolences to his wonderful family.”

Author Stephen King, meanwhile, shared a memory of being thrilled — and scared — by Norris’s performance in the action-horror film Silent Rage.

“I thought he was great,” King said.

Mojtaba Khamenei has not been seen in public since he replaced his slain father as Iran’s supreme leader.

Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has said Iran’s enemies were being “defeated” in a written message for the Persian New Year, as the US and Israel continue to pound the country with attacks.

In a statement read on Iranian television on Friday, Khamenei praised the steadfastness of the Iranian people marking Nowruz, which he said ushered in ‌the year of a “resistance economy under national unity and national security”.

“At the moment, due to the particular unity that has been created between you, our compatriots – despite all the differences in religious, intellectual, cultural and political origins – the enemy has been defeated,” he said.

Khamenei has not been seen in public since he became supreme leader, following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, at the start of the war on February 28.

Iran’s supreme leader said that while the US and Israel believed that after one or two days of attacks, the Iranian people would overthrow the government, but this was a “gross miscalculation”.

The war was launched under “the delusion that if the pinnacle of the regime and certain influential military figures were to attain martyrdom, it would instil fear and despair in our dear people … and through this means, the dream of dominating Iran and subsequently dismembering it would be realised”, he said.

Instead, “a fracture has emerged in the enemy,” he added.

Analysts have observed that the Iranian constitution itself was drafted with the spectre of a power vacuum in mind, a “survival protocol” designed to give the system the capacity to continue even at a moment of maximum shock.

Khamenei also denied that Iran or its ‌allied forces were responsible for attacks ⁠against Turkiye and ⁠Oman.

Those were “false flag” incidents used by Iran’s enemy to “sow discord among neighbours, and it may occur in other countries as well”, he claimed.

The Turkish Ministry of National Defence last week said NATO air defences intercepted a ballistic missile launched from Iran. Two people were killed in Oman after drones came down in the Sohar province.

The supreme leader also called on Afghanistan and Pakistan to end their fighting and said he stood ready to assist.

“We consider our eastern neighbours to be very close to us”, the supreme leader said. “I appeal to our two brotherly countries, Afghanistan and Pakistan, to establish better relations with each other … and I myself am ready to take the necessary actions.”

The neighbouring countries agreed to a temporary “pause” in hostilities during the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Fitr this week, after weeks of deadly violence.

Air raid sirens sounded across Kuwait City as Iran targeted US assets with missiles and drones. Footage shows alerts sounding as the call to Eid al-Fitr prayers was made at a mosque.

Russian oil is emerging as a key beneficiary of the US-Israeli war on Iran, as countries scramble to charter tankers following United States President Donald Trump’s decision to temporarily ease sanctions, analysts say.

Following a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on March 10, Trump said the US would waive Russian oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage caused by Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which in peacetime carries 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas from producers in the Gulf.

This week, it was reported that a number of tankers carrying Russian oil bound for China had changed course and were heading for India instead.

According to figures from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), Russia earned an additional 672 million euros ($777m) in oil sales in the first two weeks of the war on Iran, which began on February 28 when Israel and the US launched strikes on Tehran, killing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other senior Iranian officials.

Iran has since struck back, launching thousands of missiles and drones towards Israel as well as US military assets and infrastructure in neighbouring Gulf countries. The war stepped up a level this week, when Israel bombed Iran’s critical South Pars gasfield, and Iran hit back with strikes on Gulf energy assets, including Qatar’s Ras Laffan Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility – the world’s largest.

This week, the average price of Urals oil – the Russian benchmark – was significantly higher than the pre-war price of less than $60, at around $90 per barrel.

Here’s more about who is buying Russian oil and which other nations might benefit from the oil crisis.

Why is Russian oil benefitting from the Iran war?

Iran’s effective closure of the Hormuz Strait, which is the only sea route from the Gulf to the open ocean, has “walled in” 20 million barrels of Gulf oil per day, George Voloshin, an independent energy analyst based in Paris, told Al Jazeera.

This has prompted the US to, at least temporarily, ease sanctions on shipped Russian oil to slow the ensuing energy crisis and potential global price collapse. The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, has risen to above $100 a barrel since the closure of the strait, compared with about $65 before the war began.

Many analysts say a price of $200 is no longer “far-fetched”.

“Russia has emerged as a primary beneficiary of the Middle East conflict due to the massive supply vacuum created by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz,” Voloshin said. “Global refiners are desperate for alternative medium-sour crudes, a need that Russia’s Urals grade specifically meets.”

He added that the US decision to grant a temporary reprieve for shipped Russian oil “has provided Moscow with a critical window to maximise export volumes and oil revenues, essentially allowing Russian crude to act as the world’s primary swing supply during the Iranian blockade”.

How has the price of Russian oil been affected so far?

The price of Russian Urals has surged significantly, experts say. As a result of US sanctions, the oil had been trading at below $60 a barrel for some time. However, while “Urals historically traded at a significant discount to Brent due to Western sanctions”, Voloshin said, “that gap has narrowed as demand outstrips supply”.

“Since the beginning of the year, the price of Russian oil is estimated to have risen by nearly 80 percent – most recently close to $90 per barrel – and consistently trading well above the G7 price cap of $60 as buyers prioritise energy security over regulatory compliance in a high-volatility environment,” he added.

Are ships changing course to deliver Russian oil to new buyers?

Earlier this week, Bloomberg reported that at least seven tankers carrying Russian oil had changed course mid-voyage from China to India, citing data from Vortexa, the data analytics group.

Then, Indian media quoted Rakesh Kumar Sinha, special secretary in the Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways, confirming that the Aqua Titan, a Russian oil-laden tanker originally destined for China, is now expected to arrive at New Mangalore port on March 21 having been chartered by Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited (MPCL).

India was the first country to receive a time-limited exemption from the US Treasury to import Russian oil that is already at sea, Voloshin said.

“There is clear evidence of a massive logistical redirection of Russian oil cargoes mid-voyage. Several tankers originally bound for Chinese ports have, indeed, switched trajectory to India. This shift is driven by India’s aggressive pursuit of discounted distressed cargoes to fill its strategic reserves and meet domestic demand, as well as the increased risk and insurance costs associated with long-haul shipments to East Asia via contested waters.”

Until recently, Trump had been strongly pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil, even slapping additional 25 percent trade tariffs on India last year in punishment for doing so. This was lifted earlier this year when Trump claimed he had received assurances from India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi that India would start buying US oil, or even Venezuelan oil seized by the US, instead.

Which countries are buying Russian oil now?

Indian media has reported that India’s purchases of Russian crude have surged in the past three weeks, since the war on Iran began and the Strait of Hormuz was closed.

“The primary buyers of Russian oil continue to be India and China, who together now account for the vast majority of Russia’s seaborne exports,” Voloshin said.

Turkiye is also a significant buyer, he added, now using Russian crude to stabilise its domestic market amid the gas shortages caused by the Israeli strikes on Iran’s South Pars field.

“Additionally, a shadow fleet of ageing tankers continues to move Russian oil to smaller, less-regulated refineries across Southeast Asia and the Middle East, often through complex ship-to-ship transfers designed to obscure the origin of the crude,” he added.

He said this shadow fleet is becoming the primary delivery mechanism for oil in several contested regions, meaning more buyers could appear. “Additionally, the degree of cooperation between the US and its European allies remains a wild card. If the EU continues to refuse participation in military operations near Iran, the diplomatic and economic pressure on the US to maintain the Russian oil reprieve will likely increase.”

Will Russian oil remain in demand if the US re-imposes sanctions?

If there is nowhere else to readily source oil, countries may continue to seek Russian crude even if the US reimposes sanctions, Voloshin said. The International Energy Agency (IEA) says the closure of the Hormuz Strait has caused a shortage of 8 million barrels of oil per day.

If that persists, “major importers like India may feel they have no choice but to continue buying Russian oil to prevent domestic economic collapse”, Voloshin said.

If secondary sanctions on Russian oil are reintroduced, he added, buyers may demand much lower prices to compensate for the increased legal and financial risks of dealing with Moscow. “At the same time, in the presence of a continued severe market disruption, the US is very likely to roll over [extend] current exemptions,” Voloshin said.

Which other energy-producing nations could benefit?

Two other major non-OPEC energy producers that could benefit are Norway and Canada, experts say. However, this will largely depend on their capacity to increase production.

“Norway has already signalled its intent to maintain maximum gas and oil production to support European energy security, primarily selling to EU nations seeking to replace lost Iranian and Russian volumes,” Voloshin said. “Canada is exploring ways to increase its export capacity to the US Gulf Coast. However, like Russia, its ability to significantly ramp up production in the short term is constrained by pipeline throughput and infrastructure bottlenecks.”

Gulf countries are coming increasingly under attack from Iranian strikes as the United States-Israeli war on Iran continues to escalate.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia intercepted multiple waves of Iranian drones and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation said its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery had been targeted by several early-morning drone attacks, leading to some units being shut down.

Gulf countries have repeatedly insisted that their defences are sufficient to repel these Iranian strikes. However, they also have military partnerships and agreements in place with other countries which could potentially provide more assistance as tensions escalate.

In this explainer, we look at what these partnerships are, how they are helping the Gulf and whether they could do more.

What military partnerships do the Gulf countries have?

The Gulf countries have a handful of military partnerships of different kinds.

Qatar

Qatar is home to the largest military base hosting US assets and troops in the region – Al Udeid.

The 24-hectare (60-acre) base, located in the desert outside the capital Doha, was established in 1996 and is the forward headquarters for US Central Command, which directs US military operations in a huge swath of regional territory stretching from Egypt in the west to Kazakhstan in the east.

It houses the Qatar Emiri Air Force, the US Air Force, the United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force, as well as other foreign forces.

Qatar is the second largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) partner to the US after Saudi Arabia. FMS is the official, government‑run channel the US uses to sell weapons, equipment and services to other governments.

In January, the US State Department said that “recent and significant” sales to Qatar included the Patriot long-range missile system, the National Advanced Surface to Air Missile System, early warning systems, radars and attack helicopters.

On September 9, 2025, Israel struck a residential area of Qatar’s capital, Doha, targeting senior leaders of Hamas including negotiators for a ceasefire in Israel’s genocidal war in Gaza.

On September 29, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order reaffirming support for Qatar, saying: “The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.”

On Wednesday, Israel struck Iran’s critical South Pars gasfield. Soon after, Iran retaliated, hitting a major gas facility at Qatar’s Ras Laffan plant.

In response, Trump wrote in a Truth Social post guaranteeing that Israel would not attack the South Pars field again unless Iran again “unwisely” attacked Qatar.

Trump added that, if it did, the US “with or without the help or consent of Israel, will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field at an amount of strength and power that Iran has never seen or witnessed before”.

There is also a Turkish military base in Qatar as the two countries collaborate via defence cooperation agreements and joint training.

In recent years, Qatar has also strengthened ties with the United Kingdom through joint training and exercises and with France from which it buys weapons.

Earlier this month, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he would send four additional Typhoon fighter jets to Qatar to help with defence.

Despite initially stating that the UK would not permit the US to use UK bases for strikes on Iran, Starmer partially relented on March 1 when he granted a US request to use UK bases for “defensive” strikes on Iranian capabilities.

Nevertheless, Starmer has stated that the UK will not send its own assets or troops or otherwise become involved in the ongoing war.

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia hosts US military assets and personnel at the Prince Sultan Air Base (PSAB), located near Al Kharj, southeast of Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia is also the largest Foreign Military Sales (FMS) partner of the US.

There is no formal mutual‑defence treaty between the US and Saudi Arabia, similar to NATO’s Article 5. Instead, there are defence cooperation agreements between Riyadh and Washington.

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have had a decades-long security partnership. This was strengthened in September 2025, when the two countries signed a formal mutual defence pact.

The extent to which Pakistan, which shares a 900km (559-mile) border with Iran in its southwest, can and will intervene is unclear, however.

On March 3, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar told a news conference he had personally reminded Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of Pakistan’s defence obligations to Saudi Arabia.

“We have a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and the whole world knows about it,” Dar said. “I told the Iranian leadership to take care of our pact with Saudi Arabia.”

An estimated 1,500 to 2,000 Pakistani troops are stationed in Saudi Arabia.

United Arab Emirates

The UAE also hosts US assets and personnel at its Al-Dhafra airbase, including advanced aircraft such as F-22 Raptor stealth fighters and various surveillance planes, drones and airborne warning and control systems (AWACS).

On Thursday, the US announced an $8.4bn arms deal with the UAE, for the Gulf nation to buy drones, missiles, radar systems and F-16 aircraft.

Recently, the UAE has bolstered its military partnership with India. In January this year, the president of the UAE, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, visited India.

During this meeting, India and the UAE reaffirmed the India-UAE Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Established in 2017, this is a bilateral agreement focused on defence cooperation, energy security and technology exchange.

The UAE and India do not have a mutual defence-style agreement in place, however.

Oman

The US has long-term access agreements for key air and naval facilities in Oman, notably the Port of Duqm and Port of Salalah, both of which have been subject to Iranian strikes over the past three weeks.

The UK and Oman also have a defence cooperation agreement and conduct regular joint exercises.

Pakistan and Oman also have military ties where they hold regular joint naval exercises.

However, there are no mutual defence commitments in place.

Bahrain

The US operates the Naval Support Activity (NSA) in Bahrain. Home to the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, the base provides security to ships, aircraft, detachments and remote sites in the region.

Bahrain and the UK also have a comprehensive security pact. Earlier this month, Starmer held talks with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain and confirmed that the UK would send aircraft to bolster Bahrain’s security.

Kuwait

Kuwait hosts Camp Arifjan, a major US Army installation that functions as the main logistics, supply and command hub for US military operations across the Middle East, especially within the US Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility.

On Thursday, the US announced an $8bn arms deal with Kuwait – for air and missile defence radar systems.

In 2023, Kuwait signed an agreement on military cooperation with Pakistan, focusing on joint training and military exercises.

These are not mutual defence agreements, however.

What could these partners be doing to better assist Gulf countries?

Experts say military allies of Gulf nations could provide naval escorts to ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz. One-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies are shipped through this route in peacetime from Gulf producers.

On March 2, Ebrahim Jabari, a senior adviser to the commander-in-chief of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), announced that the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas is transported – was “closed”. This has contributed to the recent surge in oil prices, which have surpassed $100 a barrel, compared with the pre-war Brent crude price of about $65.

In recent days, countries have been individually scrambling to negotiate safe passage for ships with Iran. A handful of mainly Indian, Pakistani and Chinese-flagged ships have been able to get through as a result.

“Pakistan and India are working with Iran to ensure of safe passage of tankers for their markets,” David Roberts, a senior academic in international security and Middle East studies at Kings College London, told Al Jazeera.

Roberts said that theoretically, the countries could also offer a naval escort for their tankers and other tankers.

“As neutrals, this might be a plausible gambit, but would need the acquiescence of Iran. Support establishing a shipping channel from the monarchies to China, Pakistan, India is plausible with concerted pressure from the three states, but Iran will be reluctant to give up that pressure point.”

Roberts said that European countries on the other hand, are “stretched thinly” when it comes to offering any such military support in the Strait of Hormuz.

He suggested the UK could send “another plane or two” to Qatar to join their joint Typhoon squadron. However, he added that it is difficult to make predictions about what support is likely to be forthcoming.

“Gulf states clearly need support. But it’s not clear what can be offered by anyone,” Roberts said.

He added they likely need more munitions for missile defence but stocks are tight everywhere.

Israeli and US air attacks pound Iran as assassination campaign of country’s leadership continues.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps spokesperson has been killed in overnight strikes carried out jointly by the United States and Israel, the IRGC reported, the latest in a mounting toll of senior officials assassinated since the war began.

Ali Mohammad Naini, a 68-year-old brigadier general who took up the IRGC spokesman role in 2024, “was martyred in the criminal cowardly terrorist attack by the American-Zionist side at dawn”, the IRGC said in a statement on Friday.

His death came just hours after he appeared on national television to insist that Iran retained full capacity to manufacture missiles, even under wartime conditions.

“Our missile industry deserves a perfect score … and there is no concern in this regard, because even under wartime conditions we continue missile production,” Naini was quoted by the Fars news agency as saying.

On Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that “Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium and manufacture ballistic missiles”.

The Israeli army said on Friday that it was carrying out strikes across eastern Tehran, as the country marks the Persian New Year, Nowruz, which this year coincides with Eid al-Fitr.

Al Jazeera’s Mohamed Vall, reporting from Tehran, described the mood in the capital as “hushed”, with none of the customary festivities visible on the streets.

Naini’s killing is the latest in a string of high-profile assassinations that have gutted Iran’s establishment in under three weeks.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening hours of the joint military campaign. He has since been replaced by his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Earlier this week, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and one of the most influential figures in Iran’s establishment, was killed in a strike along with his son and several aides.

The head of the Basij paramilitary forces, Brigadier General Gholamreza Soleimani, and Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib were also confirmed dead within the same 48-hour period.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made little effort to conceal Washington’s glee, saying on Thursday that “the last job anyone in the world wants right now” is a senior leadership role in the IRGC or Basij.

However, other US officials appeared to suggest that Washington and Israel’s aims in Israel were not aligned.

Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard told the House Intelligence Committee this week that US and Israeli objectives “are different”, adding that while Israel had been “focused on disabling the Iranian leadership,” Trump’s goals were to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities “and their navy”.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has cast the killings as a means of opening a path for Iranians to reclaim their country, saying on Wednesday the campaign against the country’s leadership “will not happen all at once” but that persistence would give Iranians “a chance to take their fate into their own hands”.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the US and Israel had still failed to grasp that Iran’s political structure does not rest on any single person.

“The presence or absence of a single individual does not affect this structure,” he said.

Slovenia heads to the polls on Sunday in a closely contested race between incumbent Prime Minister Robert Golob and right-wing former Prime Minister Janez Jansa.

Opinion polls currently suggest no clear winner between Golob’s Freedom Movement (GS) and Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), with the outcome likely to hinge on smaller parties and coalition-building.

Jansa has served three times as prime minister, between 2004-2008, 2012-2013 and 2020-2022.

Golob’s domestic agenda has been broadly reform-driven and welfare-focused, with a mix of social policy, green transition, and institutional reforms, something Jansa has promised to reverse by introducing tax breaks for businesses and cutting funding for welfare programs.

The election will also decide which direction the Alpine nation, which gained independence in 1991, will take on foreign policy, especially given the wildly divergent views on Israel and Palestine.

Slovenia’s government has been an outspoken critic of Israel’s war; in contrast, Jansa is a staunch supporter of Israel.

Diverging views on Israel-Palestine

For a small nation – roughly the size of New Jersey in the United States – home to two million people, the Israel-Palestine conflict has played a significant role in its politics.

Slovenia’s current government has openly criticised Israel’s actions in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, even introducing a ban on imports of goods produced in the occupied Palestinian territory.

In May 2024, the country recognised Palestinian statehood, raising a Palestinian flag alongside the flags of Slovenia and the European Union in front of a government building in downtown Ljubljana.

In May 2025, Slovenia’s President Natasa Pirc Musar told the European Parliament that the EU needed to take stronger action against Israel, condemning “the genocide” in Gaza.

Later in the year, it banned far-right Israeli cabinet ministers Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich from entering the country and became the first country in the EU to ban all weapons trade with Israel over its genocidal war on Gaza.

It has also backed Slovenian International Criminal Court (ICC) Judge Beti Hohler, after she was sanctioned by the US for her role in issuing arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

In a letter sent to the EU heads of state on March 13, Golob and Musar warned that Europe’s refusal to condemn the sanctions indicated that “concern for economic consequences has taken precedence over a principled defence of judicial independence and international justice … at a moment when armed conflicts rage, when international law is being violated, when the victims of the gravest crimes look to the ICC as their last hope for justice.”

Nika Kovac, a Slovenian sociologist and cofounder of the 8th of March Institute, a nongovernmental organisation focused on human rights, told Al Jazeera that support for Palestine is in part rooted in the fact that Slovenia is “a very young country”, which means “there is … solidarity with countries that want to be independent, and they cannot be.”

However, the country’s approach to Palestinian rights could shift if pro-Israel Jansa were to be elected.

Jansa has been a close ally to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and lambasted Slovenia’s decision to recognise the state of Palestine, with a statement from his party claiming it was tantamount to “supporting the terrorist organisation Hamas”.

Accusations of ‘foreign information manipulation’

In the lead-up to the election, a series of covertly recorded conversations was published online, featuring a Slovenian lobbyist, a lawyer, a former minister and a manager.

The videos purportedly show the individuals discussing ways to influence decision-makers in Golob’s coalition to expedite procedures and secure contracts.

On Tuesday, Golob accused “foreign services” of interfering in Slovenia’s elections, after a report by the 8th of March Institute and investigative journalists claimed that representatives of the Israeli private spy firm Black Cube had visited the country in December and Jansa’s headquarters in the weeks leading up to the leaks.

On Wednesday, Slovenia’s Intelligence and Security Agency confirmed the arrival of Black Cube representatives in Slovenia and presented a report on foreign interference in elections, which the agency’s director said was alleged to have been carried out at the behest of people in Slovenia.

The State Secretary for National and International Security in the Office of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Slovenia, Vojko Volk, made a statement following the announcement, saying, “According to information available to date, representatives of Black Cube have stayed in Slovenia on four occasions over the past six months.”

On Thursday, Golob sent a letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen notifying her of “alarming information regarding what appears to constitute a grave instance of foreign information manipulation and interference currently unfolding in the Republic of Slovenia”.

French President Emmanuel Macron told reporters on Thursday that Golob “was the victim of clear-cut interference” by “third countries”.

“Today, in every election in Europe, there is interference that disrupts electoral processes,” Macron said.

Jansa has admitted to meeting with a Black Cube representative but denied any wrongdoing.

Beirut, Lebanon and Gaza City, Palestine – Along Beirut’s downtown waterfront, Alaa is looking for somewhere to rest his head.

The Syrian refugee, originally from the occupied Golan Heights, is now homeless. He explained that he had already spent the day wandering around the Lebanese capital trying to find shelter.

He used to live in Dahiyeh – the southern suburbs of Beirut that have been pummelled by Israeli attacks, which have now killed more than 1,000 across Lebanon.

Now, he’s just looking for somewhere he can be safe. And in that context, Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim festival that began on Friday, is far from his mind.

When asked if he had any plans for Eid, he replied in the negative. Instead, his focus was on getting a tent.

“I got rejected from staying in a school, then I went to sleep on the corniche,” Alaa said. “Then people from the municipality told me to come here to downtown Beirut’s waterfront.”

Alaa wasn’t able to find a tent and is sleeping in the open air for now. But others in the area have, transforming a downtown more famous for its expensive restaurants and bars into a tent city for those displaced by the fighting. Across Lebanon, more than a million people have been displaced.

Lebanese are uncertain when this war will end, particularly as they have barely recovered from the conflict with Israel that ran between October 2023 and November 2024.

It makes celebrations difficult – a common theme across the countries affected by the current conflict.

In Iran, now in its third week of US-Israeli attacks – with no sign of an immediate end and an economic crisis that preceded the conflict, people are struggling to afford any of the items typically bought during the holiday season.

And it is potentially dangerous for people to shop at places like Tehran’s grand bazaar, which has been damaged by the bombing.

The religious element of Eid adds an extra sensitivity for antigovernment Iranians, some of whom now see any sign of religiosity as support for the Islamic Republic. The fact that Nowruz – the Persian New Year – falls on Friday this year means that some in the antigovernment camp will be focused on that celebration instead, and eschewing any events to mark Eid.

Struggling in Gaza

Many Palestinians in Gaza want to celebrate Eid, but the enclave’s economic crisis, brought on by Israel’s genocidal war, makes it difficult.

Israeli restrictions on the entry of goods into Gaza, which have increased since the war against Iran started, have driven up prices further, including the cost of children’s toys.

Khaled Deeb, a 62-year-old living in a partially destroyed home in Gaza City, had ventured into the central Remal market, curious to see how expensive fruit and vegetables had gotten in the run-up to Eid.

“From the outside, the Eid atmosphere looks lively and vibrant,” Khaled said, pointing to the crowded market. “But financially, things are extremely bad. People have all left their homes and are now living in tents and displacement. Everyone has lost everything during the war.”

Khaled says he can’t afford the fruit and vegetables, and will have to go without. Only “kings” could buy them, he said, not “poor and exhausted people” like him.

What makes it worse is his memory of what things were like before the war, when he owned a supermarket.

“During Eid, I would give my daughters and sisters gifts of more than 3,000 shekels ($950) when visiting them, not to mention preparing the house, buying Eid clothes for my children, and sweets and chocolates to welcome the holiday,” Khaled said. None of that is going to happen this Eid, even with a ceasefire in Gaza.

His sentiment was echoed by Shireen Shreim, a mother of three.

“Our joy in Eid is incomplete,” she said, as she wandered through the market. “We have come out of two years of war with immense hardship, only to face a life where even the most basic necessities are unavailable.”

And with Israel showing few signs that it is willing to stop violently attacking Palestinians, as well as other countries in the region, Shireen has no idea when Gaza will ever be rebuilt.

“I live in an apartment with completely hollowed-out walls,” she explained. “My husband and I put up tarps and wood, and we are continuing our lives. We are much better off than others.”

“Every time I return home, I feel sad,” she added. “As you can see, people are living in nylon and cloth tents in the streets, without any humane shelter. How will these people celebrate Eid?”

Back in Beirut, Karim Safieddine, a political researcher and organiser, is stoic. He said he would be celebrating Eid with his extended family, despite the difficult circumstances.

“Although we have been displaced by the war, we believe that consolidating these family bonds and creating a sense of communal solidarity is the first and foremost condition to survive this war,” Karim said.

“Without solidarity, we won’t be able to build a society, a country,” he said. “I think that’s a starting point for many people attempting to really create a sense of forward-looking vision for a country under bombs, without any form of toxic positivity, of course.”

The Israeli Air Force (IAF) claims that it destroyed the Iranian government’s Airbus A340 in a strike on Mehrabad International Airport in Tehran. Last summer, the aircraft had been part of an exodus of Iranian state-operated airliners to Oman, but its apparent demise now underscores the intensity of the current airstrikes against Iran, which have been systematically removing aircraft of all types from the Iranian inventory.

In a statement on X, the IAF described the A340-300 as “the plane of the leader of the Iranian terror regime” and a “strategic asset,” and said that its destruction “impairs the ability to coordinate between the leadership of the Iranian terror regime and Axis countries, in building military power, and in the regime’s rehabilitation capability.” The IAF posted a library photo showing the A340, which it says was also used by “additional senior officials from the terror regime, and elements in the Iranian military, to advance military procurement and manage relations with Axis countries through domestic and international flights.”

The fact that any airlift-capable aircraft, whether military or civilian by design, can be used to move materiel to Iranian proxies has long been a problem for Israel. With the IAF destroying its airlift fleet, Iran will find it harder to connect with proxies, providing support, as well as engaging in a variety of other nefarious activities.

At this stage, it should be noted that the destruction of the A340 has not yet been independently verified. TWZ has approached various commercial providers of satellite imagery for confirmation.

Previous satellite imagery showed the A340 parked in different dispersed areas around the airport, including among derelict airframes. This was almost certainly an effort to complicate targeting.

A satellite image of Mehrabad showing the runway blocked with parked buses and helicopters, rendering it unusable:

The A340 in question has the Iranian civil registration EP-IGA and is the largest aircraft in Iran’s modest government transport fleet. Widely described as ‘Iran Force One,’ in reference to the U.S. president’s Air Force One, the A340 has been used by the Iranian state for a variety of long-haul missions, making use of its widebody capacity and intercontinental range. In general, the A340 has been a fairly popular choice as a government transport, with VIP A340s having been operated by Egypt, France, Jordan, Libya, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, among others.

Iran – Government A340-313 with Iran President on board Landing at Karachi Airport

In practice, Iran’s supreme leader only left the country occasionally, with the A340 primarily being used to move other high-ranking officials on diplomatic visits. For example, it was used to transport Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to the United States for the main annual United Nations General Assembly meeting in 2024.

The A340, which was operated by the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF), despite its civilian-style livery, had a complicated history. It was first delivered to Air Canada in 1999, before flying under the colors of Air Jamaica, Turkish Airlines, AirBlue, and Asian Express. By 2015, it was owned by Tehran-based Meraj Airlines, which leased it to the Iranian government. It spent a period with Dena Airways, a passenger charter carrier based out of Mehrabad, but by 2018, it belonged to the Iranian government and was registered as EP-IGA.

Serving alongside the A340 in the Iranian government’s transport fleet were at least one Airbus A321-200 and a pair of BAe Avro RJ85 regional jets. Their fates remain uncertain at this stage.

Mehrabad has been hit particularly hard by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, with targeted aircraft including the unique KC-747 aircraft operated by the IRIAF. The tanker version of the 747 was not flown anywhere else in the world, and Iran had just one flying example. You can read all about the aircraft in this past article. 

EXPLAINER

Tehran has warned of zero restraint if energy facilities are attacked again, while Netanyahu signals that there could be a ‘ground component’ to the war.

Iran has warned it will show “zero restraint” if its energy facilities are attacked again, a day after Israel struck the South Pars gasfield and Tehran attacked energy sites across the Gulf.

In the United States, President Donald Trump raised controversy during a meeting with Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi by invoking the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbour while defending the element of surprise in the Iran attack.

Meanwhile, as the conflict intensifies, concerns over supply disruptions have pushed global oil and gas prices higher, with sharp increases reported across the United Kingdom and Europe.

In Iran

• Escalation: After Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gasfield, Tehran hit targets in Haifa, Israel, and Ras Laffan, Qatar, warning of “zero restraint” if its energy facilities are attacked again and claiming Iran has only used a “fraction” of its firepower so far.
• Widespread regional missile strikes: Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced a new wave of missile and drone attacks on US bases and central and southern Israel, including Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Jerusalem.
• Humanitarian toll:  The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that more than 18,000 civilians have been injured and 204 children have been killed in Iran since the war began on February 28. In all, more than 1,400 people have been killed in Iran.
• US airbase in Germany: Iran said it had asked Germany to clarify the role of the Ramstein Air Base in the war. “The role of Ramstein is not officially clear for us,” Tehran’s ambassador to Germany, Majid Nili, said. The Ramstein Air Base matters because it is one of the US military’s most important hubs and a key link in operations in the Middle East.
• Macron eyes UN action on Hormuz: French President Emmanuel Macron said he will consult United Nations Security Council members on a framework to secure navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global chokepoint through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil and gas flows – once fighting subsides.

In the Gulf

• Gulf attacks: UAE and Kuwaiti air defences were responding to missile attacks on Friday, authorities in the Gulf states said. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Defense said it had intercepted and destroyed 10 drones in the country’s east and another in the north.
• UAE arrests: Authorities detained at least five members of a “terrorist network” linked to Iran and Hezbollah that allegedly used business fronts to infiltrate the economy as part of a coordinated external plan, the official WAM news agency reported.
• Qatar – Ras Laffan attack: Iran hit Qatar’s key LNG facility, cutting about 17 percent of output for as long as five years, the CEO of QatarEnergy has said. With Qatar supplying 20 percent of global LNG, disruptions are expected, with force majeure likely on some contracts to Belgium, Italy, South Korea, and China. Diplomatically, Qatar’s prime minister and Turkiye’s foreign minister held a joint news conference condemning the act of sabotage as a “dangerous escalation” by Iran. On Thursday, Qatar’s defence forces again reported ballistic missile attacks.
• Missile and drone interceptions in Bahrain: Bahrain’s Defence Force reported shooting down five incoming missiles recently, bringing its total interceptions to 139 missiles and 238 drones since the start of the conflict more than two weeks ago.

In the US

• ‘Pearl Harbour’ remarks: Trump defended not informing allies about the US strikes on Iran, saying “we wanted surprise.” He then turned to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who was visiting the White House and was seated next to him, and invoked the 1941 bombing of Pearl Harbour, saying, “Who knows better about surprise than Japan? Why didn’t you tell me about Pearl Harbour, OK? Right?”
• Diplomatic shockwaves: Analyst Mireya Solis called Trump’s Pearl Harbour remark to Japan’s PM “unusual – a shock” that brings up a bitter rivalry rather than emphasising shared allied bonds.
• US war objectives unchanged: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said US goals remain the same since February 28 – targeting Iran’s missile systems, military industry and navy, and preventing a nuclear weapon, with no set end date.
• No US ground troops: Trump said he was not sending US ground troops to Iran, telling reporters: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you. But I’m not putting troops.” However, Trump has frequently changed his position on whether he is open to deploying boots on the ground in Iran.
• F-35 incident: A US F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at a Middle East airbase after a combat mission over Iran. The aircraft landed safely and the pilot is stable, while US officials investigate reports it may have been struck by Iranian fire. If that is the case, it would be the first US jet struck by Iran during the current war.

In Israel

• Explosions over Jerusalem: Israel’s military said it had identified three rounds of missile fire in the hour and a half preceding midnight, and another a few hours later.
• Netanyahu says Iran ‘decimated’: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a news conference he saw “this war ending a lot faster than people think … We are winning and Iran is being decimated.”
• Trump and Netanyahu: Netanyahu also denied that Israel “dragged” the US into the war, asking, “Does anyone really think that someone can tell President Trump what to do?”
• Israel ‘acted alone’: The PM also said Israel acted on its own when it struck an Iranian gasfield. “President Trump asked us to hold off on future attacks and we’re holding out.”
• Netanyahu signals possible ground phase: “It is often said that you can’t win, you can’t do revolutions from the air. That is true. You can’t do it only from the air. You can do a lot of things from the air, and we’re doing, but there has to be a ground component as well,” the Israeli prime minister said in his remarks.
• Next stage questions: Al Jazeera’s Rob McBride described Netanyahu’s comments about a possible ground component as “intriguing”, suggesting a potential next stage while raising questions about how it would unfold. Netanyahu’s remarks were also seen as an attempt to reassure Israelis that the nearly three-week war has been worthwhile.
• Core objectives: Netanyahu also reiterated goals of dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme, degrading its ballistic missile capabilities, and shaping conditions for a future without the “current regime”.
• Regional framing: “In a wider sense, he was also claiming that with their American allies, they were reshaping the Middle East altogether, and that the balance of power and the dynamics within that – that Israel, he said, had never been stronger, while Iran, he claimed, had never been weaker,” McBride said.

In Lebanon

• Severe humanitarian crisis and displacements:  Since Israeli attacks on Lebanon escalated on March 2, the death toll in the country has surpassed 1,000 people, with at least 2,584 wounded. Furthermore, residents in towns such as Machghara and Sahmar in the Bekaa Valley reported receiving threatening phone calls from foreign numbers urging them to evacuate.
• Ongoing clashes and military actions: Fierce fighting continues in southern Lebanon, where the Israeli army has expanded its ground troop presence. Hezbollah has claimed responsibility for multiple attacks, including firing missiles at Israeli soldiers and vehicles in the southern Lebanese towns of al-Aadaissah, Meiss el-Jabal, and Maroun al-Ras.
• Diplomatic efforts for a truce: Amidst the heavy fighting, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has renewed calls for a truce and the opening of negotiations with Israel to end the war.

Oil and gas

• Global economic effect: The Ras Laffan strike cut about 17 percent of LNG capacity, with losses near $20bn a year and an estimated 9 percent annual hit to Qatar’s gross domestic product, according to Al Jazeera’s Dmitry Medvedenko, who was reporting from Doha.
• Soaring global prices: Concerns over these supply disruptions have triggered a surge in global oil and gas prices. Gas prices have risen sharply across the UK and Europe. The ripple effects are being felt in developing nations as well; for instance, fuel prices in Zimbabwe recently topped $2 per litre for the first time as a direct result of the conflict’s effect on oil and gas exports.
• International pushback and warnings: Due to the escalating energy crisis, the European Council has urgently called for a moratorium on strikes against energy and water facilities.
• US may ‘unsanction’ Iranian crude: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington might “unsanction” Iranian oil that is already being shipped to ease oil prices. In comments to Fox Business, Bessent also said the US government could release more oil from its strategic reserves.

As attention shifts to the Iran war, tighter restrictions on Gaza are driving shortages, price hikes and growing suffering, turning a time of celebration into one of anxiety for millions.

While the world’s attention is fixed on the Iran war, Israel has quietly tightened its chokehold on Gaza, further restricting the flow of goods and aid. As Eid al-Fitr begins, a time meant to be marked by joy and family gatherings, millions in Gaza are struggling under deepening shortages and rising hardship. What should be a moment of celebration has instead become one of anxiety, as the worsening crisis strips Eid of even its simplest pleasures.

The economic crisis is not merely a case of ordinary inflation or a temporary shortage of goods, but the result of a complex interplay between the Israeli occupation, local market dynamics, and broader regional and international strategies. Israel has repeatedly taken advantage of external tensions, such as those involving Iran or Lebanon, to justify tightening restrictions on the movement of goods through crossings while intensifying military pressure on Gaza. This leaves residents directly exposed to soaring prices and shortages of essential commodities.

Even when goods are available in the markets, some traders have taken advantage of the crisis to make excessive profits by raising prices unjustifiably. Tomatoes, for example, which used to be 3 shekels ($0.97) before the recent events, now cost 20 shekels ($6.48). Essential canned goods have increased at similar rates. Cooking gas now costs 80 shekels ($25.92) for an 8kg cylinder, meaning that a family may need about 640 shekels ($207.37) per month just to secure cooking gas. Electricity prices have also increased from 18 shekels ($5.83) per unit to 25 shekels ($8.10), while the cost of living for families who often rely on alternatives such as kerosene stoves (babur) for cooking instead of wood has risen sharply.

Price hikes do not stop here. Meat has become prohibitively expensive, essential medicines are increasingly inaccessible at reasonable prices, and even the simplest Eid traditions are now out of reach for many. This price manipulation reflects how some traders exploit the economic fragility and psychological pressure faced by residents, intensifying feelings of injustice and frustration among the population.

The ongoing war, repeated violations of ceasefire arrangements, and Israel’s broader strategy of using external conflicts as justification for military pressure have turned the narrative of “continuous security threats from Gaza” into a recurring pretext for closing crossings or using them as a tool of control. In this way, Gaza has increasingly become entangled in wider regional tensions and military calculations.

Under these circumstances, Eid al-Fitr in Gaza has become a symbol of daily hardship. Families are forced to choose between basic necessities and the traditions of the holiday. Meat, vegetables and cooking gas have become luxuries for many, while the majority struggle simply to secure the essentials of daily life.

Even when supplies exist, the monopolisation of goods and unjustified price hikes make the local market fragile and expose the weakness of Gaza’s economic structure. Every attempt to stabilise prices or increase supply faces strict restrictions linked to the blockade, creating opportunities for traders to secure quick profits at the expense of ordinary civilians.

In the end, Gaza’s crisis is not merely an economic issue; it reflects a complex intersection of occupation, blockade, commercial exploitation, and regional and international policies that have left the territory marginalised.

Eid al-Fitr, once a symbol of joy, has become a reminder of a lost celebration, but also a call for the international community to take meaningful action: to ensure the flow of humanitarian aid, protect civilians from exploitation and prevent human suffering from being turned into an opportunity for profit.