NEWS

Across advanced and emerging economies, central bankers are confronting an increasingly assertive political class. Populist leaders and fiscally strained governments are pressing for lower interest rates, easier financing and, in some cases, greater influence over monetary authorities themselves.

The response from central banks has been firm but not without risk. In defending their independence, they risk appearing political, blurring the very boundary they are trying to protect.

The U.S.: Digging In at the Federal Reserve

In the United States, the confrontation has been direct. Jerome Powell has faced repeated criticism from President Donald Trump over interest rates, with Trump arguing that tighter policy undermines economic growth.

Rather than soften its stance, the Federal Reserve has emphasized its legal independence and data-driven approach. Powell has repeatedly stressed that decisions will be based on inflation and employment data, not political preference.

The stakes are high. With U.S. federal debt at $36 trillion and large refinancing needs ahead, pressure to keep borrowing costs low is intensifying. Any perception that the Fed is yielding to political demands could unsettle bond markets and erode confidence in its anti-inflation mandate.

Europe: Pre-Emptive Exits and Institutional Defense

In Europe, resistance has taken a subtler form. François Villeroy de Galhau is stepping down from the Bank of France months before elections that polls suggest could benefit the far right. Though officially described as a personal decision, the move is widely seen as an attempt to preserve institutional continuity before a potential political shift.

Similarly, Christine Lagarde has not ruled out the possibility of leaving the European Central Bank before completing her term, even while stating her baseline intention is to stay.

Such pre-emptive departures highlight a paradox: central banks are trying to shield themselves from politicization, yet early resignations can themselves be interpreted as political maneuvers. Critics argue this risks undermining the perception of neutrality.

European institutions are legally insulated by treaties, but they are not immune to democratic pressures particularly as high debt levels in countries such as France and Italy fuel debates over whether central banks should help finance public spending.

Japan: Market Discipline as a Shield

At the Bank of Japan, the dynamic is slightly different. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi appointed dovish economists to the board, a move seen by some as an effort to temper rate hikes.

Yet the BOJ has maintained its commitment to policy normalization. In Japan’s case, currency markets have provided reinforcement. A weakening yen during earlier periods of ultra-loose policy heightened political sensitivity to inflation risks. Market volatility effectively strengthened the central bank’s hand, illustrating how investor reactions can discipline governments as well as monetary authorities.

Why Independence Matters

The battle is about more than institutional pride. Central bank independence emerged in the late 20th century as a response to the inflationary spirals of the 1970s. Countries that subordinated monetary policy to political cycles often experienced runaway prices and capital flight.

More recent examples underscore the danger. In countries such as Turkey and Argentina, political interference in rate-setting has coincided with surging inflation and currency instability.

For advanced economies now grappling with record sovereign debt and rising defense spending, the temptation to lean on central banks is clear. Lower rates ease fiscal pressure. But if investors believe policy is being distorted for political convenience, borrowing costs may ultimately rise rather than fall.

The Blurred Line Between Mandate and Mission Creep

The past decade has complicated the picture. Massive bond-buying programs during the global financial crisis and the pandemic pulled central banks deeper into fiscal territory. In Europe and Britain, limited climate-related initiatives sparked accusations of overreach.

Critics argue that such expansions of mandate have made central banks more politically visible and therefore more vulnerable.

This creates a delicate trade-off. Remaining silent in the face of political pressure may preserve appearances but risk policy distortion. Publicly resisting may safeguard inflation credibility but invite accusations of entering the political arena.

Markets as Final Arbiter

Ultimately, financial markets may determine how much room politicians have to maneuver. Governments can pressure central banks, but they cannot easily compel investors to finance deficits at artificially low rates.

If markets sense that independence is eroding, they may demand higher yields, weaken currencies or pull capital outcomes that raise inflation and undermine growth. In that sense, investor discipline can reinforce central bank autonomy more effectively than legal protections alone.

A Costly Defense

Central bankers today face a more hostile and fragmented political landscape than their predecessors. The old assumption that technocrats could quietly manage inflation while politicians handled everything else no longer holds.

By fighting back, they defend hard-won credibility. But in doing so, they risk appearing as participants in political struggles rather than neutral arbiters of economic stability.

The challenge is no longer simply setting interest rates. It is preserving trust in institutions designed to stand above politics at a time when politics increasingly refuses to stand aside.

With information from Reuters.

Amid the apparent movement of U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft from an airbase in Qatar, the United States has urged its citizens to leave Israel immediately as the threat of a strike on Iran looms ever larger. U.S. President Donald Trump has assembled two carrier strike groups in the region as part of a significant military build-up and has continued to express doubt that Iran is serious about ending its nuclear program.

You can get a good sense of the state of play and the possible questions surrounding possible military action in our previous story here.

Available satellite imagery from yesterday indicates that the aerial refueling aircraft formerly present at Al Udeid, the major U.S. Air Force hub in Qatar, have been moved. In previous days, imagery had revealed between seven and 15 KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft at the base. However, C-17A Globemaster III transports can still be seen at the base, which would be consistent with supplies flowing in ahead of a contingency. C-130 Hercules-series transports also seen on the tarmac are likely part of the special operations presence at the airbase. Moving assets out of Al Udeid, which would be among the highest-priority targets for Iran if hostilities break out, would be expected ahead of a major U.S. operation against Tehran, as was the case last year.

Footage from Tehran shows burned vehicles, wrecked buildings, towering plumes of smoke, and a massive crater after US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Commentators within Israel have described a sense of business as usual in the wake of the country’s joint attack with the United States against Iran.

“It’s Saturday, so the streets are naturally quiet,” political analyst Ori Goldberg said from outside Tel Aviv, as he returned from his shelter for the second time.

“I think, politically, there’s a sense of triumphalism, of having attacked an enemy regime. Not really because we’re greatly invested in the future of the Iranian people, but because, through the genocide on Gaza, we’ve devalued human life,” he said, referring to the Israeli attacks on the besieged territory since October 2023.

Returning to shelters around the country is now the stuff of everyday life for most Israelis, he said.

Israel has been on high alert since it launched a wave of attacks on Iran, the country that its leaders have consistently portrayed as its nemesis for decades.

Announcing the attack through a video post on X, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu framed the attack in characteristically apocalyptic terms, saying Israel and the US had launched attacks to “remove the existential threat posed [to Israel] by the terror regime in Iran”, and going on to call upon the Iranian people to rise against their own leaders in response to the US and Israeli unprovoked strikes upon their cities.

Iran has retaliated with its own waves of missiles and drones against Israel and US assets in the region. At least one person was reported wounded in northern Israel.

But the latest strikes against Iran were met warmly by Israel’s political elite.

“I want to remind us all: The people of Israel are strong. The IDF [Israeli army] and the Air Force are strong. The strongest power in the world stands with us,” opposition leader Yair Lapid wrote on social media, referring to the US.

“In moments like these we stand together – and we win together. There is no coalition and no opposition, only one people and one IDF, with all of us behind them.”

In a subsequent post written in Farsi, he echoed the prime minister’s calls for Iran to enact regime change from within, a longstanding Israeli policy.

‘It’s crazy’

Accounts of the relative calm in Israel stand in sharp contrast to previous escalations, when sources described panic and bulk buying before an anticipated Iranian response to the wave of strikes Israel launched against targets in Iran.

“People here are well trained,” Aida Touma-Suleiman, a Palestinian member of the Israeli parliament representing the left-wing Hadash-Ta’al faction, which is almost alone in opposing the strikes, said from her apartment near Haifa, where she had just returned from her shelter.

“This is what they’re saying all the time in the media: How well-trained and ready we are. It’s crazy. I don’t think any country in the world has experienced more war than we have, so this is what they mean by ‘trained’,” she said, referencing the wars on Iran, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza that Israel has waged since the Hamas-led attack of October 2023.

As Touma-Suleiman spoke, she was interrupted by an alarm on her phone. “That’s not the alert. That’s a warning on my phone telling me there’s going to be an alert and then I’ll have to return to the shelter,” she explained, laughing drily. “You see what I mean about being well trained?”

Texting from Israel, Ahron Bregman, a senior teaching fellow at the Department for War Studies at King’s College London, described the relative calm and almost relief felt by many within the country that the uncertainty over war with Iran was at an end.

“Both Israel and the US are after the Iranian leadership. They hope to weaken it substantially, though I doubt they could topple it from the air,” he said, raising the possibility of a prolonged conflict.

However, how ready Israel might be for a lengthy war, and to what degree that might be Israel’s choice, was far from certain, Touma-Suleiman said.

“It will be the United States that determines how long the war will be. They’ll continue until they’ve achieved whatever it is they want,” she said.

“I don’t think Israel is ready for that. People are exhausted. The army is exhausted. I don’t know if they even have the reserves to manage a long war, and this is what Netanyahu is willing to gamble with, just so he can say to the public before elections: ‘Here is at least one victory.’”

When he became Nigeria’s Inspector-General of Police (IGP) in 2023, Kayode Egbetokun vowed to fight criminality and insecurity with vim and vigour. He seemed determined to reform the police; he promised to improve officers’ welfare and make Nigeria a safer, better country for its people. As Usman Alkali stepped out of the IGP office and Kayode stepped in, Nigerians hoped he could deliver on his promise.

“I really can’t describe how I feel currently, but if I have to tell you anything, I will tell you that right now, I feel like a tiger inside of me, ready to chase away all the criminals in Nigeria. And some other times, I feel like a lion in me, ready to devour all the internal enemies of Nigeria. That’s my feeling right now,” he said during his decoration as acting IGP at the Presidential Villa in Abuja.

On Feb. 24, the reign of the 61-year-old police chief came to an end. He was forced to resign, according to local media reports. His regime appeared to have dampened the high hopes for police reform in Nigeria, leaving the new IGP, Tunji Disu, a highly decorated police chief, with a legacy of a failed policing system.

Disu is a familiar name within the police force, having held various important roles and risen through the ranks. In 2021, for instance, he succeeded Abba Kyari, a Nigerian once-upon-a-time supercop, as head of the Police Intelligence Response Team (IRT). He was an Assistant Inspector-General of Police before emerging as Nigeria’s new IGP.

Born on April 13, 1966, Tunji joined the police force in May 1992. Appointed as acting IGP at 59, he is due to retire in April this year, upon reaching the mandatory age of 60. However, in 2024, the National Assembly amended the Police Act, 2020, enabling him to serve out his full four-year term as IGP, unless the president removes him.

He had led the Rapid Response Squad (RRS) of Lagos State Police Command successfully and presented himself as a diligent supercop throughout his career. While his antecedent might have been thrilling, he’s inheriting the disturbing legacies of his predecessor, leaving him a deep forest to clear. 

To understand what lies ahead, HumAngle engaged police officers, journalists, civic leaders, and human rights advocates, who not only reflected on the legacies of the former IGP but also outlined urgent priorities for the new administration. Their insights reveal both the depth of Nigeria’s policing crisis and the expectations riding on Disu to restore trust, improve welfare, and confront systemic failures within the force.

The legacy of human rights abuses

The NPF was infamous for several unlawful activities under the former IGP’s command, including high-handedness towards journalists demanding social justice and accountability. Journalists, whistleblowers, and media practitioners across Nigeria were targeted for simply doing their jobs, creating a climate of fear that undermined press freedom. On many occasions, journalists reported being beaten or threatened during arrests and manhandled at rallies, while editors said they received threatening calls warning them against publishing sensitive stories.

Over 80 incidents of attacks against journalists and media organisations were recorded in 2025, according to a report by the Media Rights Agenda (MRA), a non-profit organisation that promotes and protects freedom of expression, media freedom, and access to information in Nigeria. The report stated that arrests and detentions were the primary tools for suppressing media freedom and freedom of expression, constituting the most common form of attack, with 38 documented cases accounting for over 44 per cent of all incidents.

“In terms of perpetrators of attacks against journalists and violations of other freedom of expression rights, the Nigeria Police Force was identified in the report as the worst offender,” the report stated.

The police, under the former IGP, were also accused of weaponising the cyber law to incarcerate journalists seeking public accountability. Sometimes instigated by influential people within and outside government, the police have used this legislation to clamp down on journalists and activists despite the recent amendment. Digital journalists were even more targeted using Nigeria’s Cybercrime Act. In 2024, the National Assembly amended sections of the law following the ECOWAS Court’s declaration that they were inconsistent with Nigeria’s obligations under Article 1 of the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights and with best practices.

The amended Cybercrimes Act 2024 has revised Section 24 of the 2015 law, which was previously used to prosecute individuals for “insulting” or “stalking” public officials. The updated amendment provides clearer definitions of the offences, focusing on computer-based messages that are either pornographic or intentionally misleading. However, despite these changes, the police have still been using this provision to intimidate journalists.

One interesting case, among several others, involved Nurudeen Akewusola, a senior journalist with the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR). In 2024, Nurudeen’s investigation exposed how two former IGPs, among others, were implicated in a shady multimillion-naira land deal involving property originally designated for police barracks in Abuja. The police detained Nurudeen and his employer, Dayo Aiyetan, over this story, asking the reporter to reveal his sources. He refused to name his sources, upholding journalistic ethics. 

The reporter and his employer were detained by the Nigeria Police Force National Cybercrime Centre (NPF-NCCC), which was purportedly probing a “case of cyberstalking and defamation of character” against the reporter and the executive director of the ICIR.

Two years later, Nurudeen told HumAngle that his experience with the police still haunts him. The incident has since made him worried about the safety of journalists and truth-seekers in Nigeria. He remembers how he was detained and mistreated when chasing any similar public interest story. 

“The incident also took a toll on those close to me. My family and loved ones were anxious and confused; calls kept coming in as people tried to understand what was happening and what might happen next. Watching them carry that fear because of my work was a heavy emotional burden,” he said.

Scores of journalists in Nigeria faced even worse attacks from police under the former IGP’s leadership.  Busola Ajibola, the deputy director of journalism at the Centre for Journalism Innovations and Development (CJID), told HumAngle that at least 40 cases of press freedom attacks were recorded under former IGP Kayode. The media civic leader said there seemed to be a culture of impunity against journalists that predated the former police chief and was more pronounced during his administration.

“We’re building an environment that lacks accountability,” she warned, noting that media oppression by the police could have grave consequences. “We’re denying the public of demanding accountability using the media. Media oppression also has impacts on the right to freedom of expression generally.”

Failed to rein in terrorist attacks

Despite his flowery promises to curb insecurity, the former IGP seemed to have failed to secure lives and property in Nigeria’s most volatile communities. Communal crises lingered for so long that they attracted global attention, and terrorism resurged with terrorists operating brazenly, especially in the northwestern region. Between 2023 and 2024, for instance, Nigeria grappled with widespread insecurity, particularly in the northwestern and north-central regions. Kidnappings for ransom surged, with rural communities and travellers along highways being frequent targets. Armed groups intensified their operations, often overwhelming security forces. The HumAngle Tracker recorded hundreds of deaths during this period, revealing the persistent inability of police institutions to contain violence.

Insurgency intensified within the northeastern region, spreading rapidly to the north-central states, including Nigeria’s capital city. Boko Haram and ISWAP factions raided villages, military bases, and convoys, leading to significant civilian casualties. This period also saw an increase in targeted killings and ambushes. 

Terrorist attacks expanded beyond the northern regions in 2025, with the South East Nigeria experiencing heightened violence linked to separatist movements and criminal gangs. Attacks on security personnel, government facilities, and civilians became more frequent. The HumAngle Tracker documented a rise in politically motivated violence, especially around election-related activities. Meanwhile, oil-producing areas in the South-South continued to experience militancy and pipeline vandalism, disrupting economic stability. By early 2026, the tracker data showed that insecurity remained entrenched, with no significant nationwide improvement.

In November 2025, however, the former IGP described how the police were fighting terrorism and armed violence in Nigeria, saying insecurity was not something that could be fought in silos. While addressing reporters at the Lagos Police Command in Ikeja,  the police chief said there must be synergy with other agencies and all communities for Nigeria to contain insecurity. He also advised Nigerians to stop spreading misinformation and falsehood about the police and other security agencies.

“When people spread falsehood against security institutions that are providing security, they are weakening the resolve of the nation,” he said. “So, let us all be committed to saying the truth about security agencies who are taking risks and providing security for the country.”  

Decentralised the Police Complaints Response Unit

At first, the former police chief introduced a policing model that appeared to prioritise public complaints. Barely four months into his role as acting IGP, he decentralised the Police Complaints Response Units (CRU) to cater to the disturbing trust deficits in the policing system. In August 2023, he ordered police commissioners to establish the state-based police complaint units. The CRU made contact information for police spokespersons available online and set up social media pages to engage with citizens nationwide. He said the purpose of decentralising the CRU was to create a conducive platform for interaction between the police and the public, particularly regarding officers’ unprofessional conduct.

“It is going to enhance police-community collaboration and build confidence with members of the public,” he said, appealing to the public to supply the police with information for transparency. “Officers who are going to man the CRU are going to be carefully selected; they are going to be officers with impeccable integrity.”

The CRU emboldened citizens to hold police officers accountable for their actions. The initiative brought several erring police officers to justice when citizens lodged complaints. However, the CRU decentralisation became defective when the police became reluctant to prosecute some officers caught in shady dealings. Journalists and civic actors who closely monitored the CRU said the initiative was promising at first, but it later flopped.

Daniel Ojukwu, a senior journalist with the Foundation for Investigative Journalism and Social Justice, said that while the former IGP must be commended for decentralising the CRU, he must also be blamed for ignoring significant citizen complaints against the police. Daniel covers police activities, seeking justice for citizens whose rights were violated by high-handed officers. The journalist also had his share of press attacks by police officers. He was arrested and detained – albeit illegally – by the force headquarters for an investigation he had conducted.

“Egbetokun did well with the CRU decentralisation, but of course, there were holes. We hope that the new IG will prioritise making the CRU work better,” he said.

HumAngle spoke with several police officers to inquire about the IGP’s general performance. Many of them believe he lost his way the moment he attained the highest position in the police force. Most of his promises, they said, were unfulfilled. Some of the officers we spoke with said he was a poor administrator who had the chance to reform the police but failed woefully. The officers begged not to be identified by name for fear of retribution.

“His administration made no sense,” one officer said bluntly. “We all thought he would be different, but our leaders are all the same.”

Setting the agenda for the new IG

On Feb. 25, President Bola Tinubu decorated Tunji Disu as the acting IGP, officially signalling a change in authority at the NPF. Interestingly, the newly decorated IGP vowed to enforce a zero-tolerance regime against corruption and human rights abuses. He told journalists after his inauguration that his leadership would ensure that police officers are well-trained to protect Nigerian citizens and engage them with utmost civility.

“I will let them (fellow policemen and women) know that the era of impunity is over,” he declared. “Most importantly, I’m going to drum it into them that we can never succeed without the cooperation of members of the public.”

His declaration seems to be a shift in tone for the police force. Beyond his heavy promises and rhetoric, Nigerians are eager to see how these promises translate into action. Civil society organisations, human rights advocates, and community leaders have long pressed for reforms that prioritise accountability, transparency, and respect for citizens. 

As Tunji steps into this role, civic actors are articulating their expectations of the new IG, underscoring the urgency of building trust between the police and the people they are sworn to protect. While some security experts believe the police seem to have neglected their counterterrorism role, other civic actors demand a safe space for journalists and activists to demand transparency in governance without being persecuted by the force. 

Busola Ajibola of CJID reiterated that, beyond flowery speeches about fighting impunity, the new IGP must take a clear stand, backed by action, against press freedom violations and investigate officers who unlawfully violate journalists’ rights.

“He should invest in re-training middle-level and low-ranking officers on human rights and press freedom,” Busola noted. “Most times when we engage with senior police officers, we realise that they appear to know the right thing, but the problem is usually the middle-level or low-ranking officers who have little knowledge of press freedom and human rights.”

Speaking about his years of experience covering the police, Daniel said it has become clear to him that the police force is highly underfunded. He asked the current IG to prioritise funding for the police. An officer who asked not to be named confirmed this, saying that a system that fails to properly finance the police automatically sets operatives against the people.

“These officers don’t even have fuel in their vehicles to run operations many times. How do you expect them to be effective?” Daniel asked. “People go to lodge complaints in police stations, they’re asked to pay.” He added that to make the CRU more effective, the police must have a speed dial number that’s responsive and easy to memorise, so citizens can contact the police quickly when they face any challenge.

Welcome to Bunker Talk. This is a weekend open discussion post for the best commenting crew on the net, in which we can chat about all the stuff that went on this week that we didn’t cover. We can also talk about the stuff we did or whatever else grabs your interest. In other words, it’s an off-topic thread.

This week’s second caption reads:

Missileers with the 321st Missile Squadron run through the test sequence document during the Simulated Electronic Launch-Minuteman test inside the launch control center at a missile alert facility in the 90th Missile Wing’s missile complex, Neb., April 11, 2017. The missileers worked heavily in conjunction with missile maintainers to conduct a test of Minuteman III weapon system components. A successful test proves the ICBM weapon system’s effectiveness in a safe and secure manner. (U.S. Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. Christopher Ruano)

Also, a reminder:

Prime Directives!

• If you want to talk politics, do so respectfully and know that there’s always somebody that isn’t going to agree with you. 
• If you have political differences, hash it out respectfully, stick to the facts, and no childish name-calling or personal attacks of any kind. If you can’t handle yourself in that manner, then please, discuss virtually anything else.
• No drive-by garbage political memes. No conspiracy theory rants. Links to crackpot sites will be axed, too. Trolling and shitposting will not be tolerated. No obsessive behavior about other users. Just don’t interact with folks you don’t like. 
• Do not be a sucker and feed trolls! That’s as much on you as on them. Use the mute button if you don’t like what you see.  
• So unless you have something of quality to say, know how to treat people with respect, understand that everyone isn’t going to subscribe to your exact same worldview, and have come to terms with the reality that there is no perfect solution when it comes to moderation of a community like this, it’s probably best to just move on. 
• Finally, as always, report offenders, please. This doesn’t mean reporting people who don’t share your political views, but we really need your help in this regard.

Israel has launched an attack on Iran, striking targets in Tehran.

A U.S. official has confirmed to TWZ that the U.S. is attacking Iran. Including strikes from air and sea, the official said. See updates down below.

Details remain extremely limited at this time, but what we know is that Israel struck targets as part of what it is calling a preemptive strike. Images from the capital show smoke plumes rising in urban areas. In addition, we have seen video from Iraq showing what appear to be low flying cruise missiles or possibly fighter aircraft. Iraq has been the primary access point for the Israeli Air Force in past strikes on Iran.

Video shows plumes of smoke rising after Iran targeted a United States military base in Bahrain, following Israel–US attacks across Iran. Two missiles were intercepted over Qatar and explosions were reportedly heard in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the joint US‑Israel strikes on Iran aim to remove an ‘existential threat.’ He hailed the joint action as empowering the Iranian people to shape their own future and praised US President Donald Trump for his leadership.

US President Donald Trump says American forces have begun “major combat operations” in Iran alongside Israel, aiming to eliminate what he described as imminent threats from the Iranian regime and defend the American people.

Israel has launched an attack on Iran, striking targets in Tehran.

A U.S. official has confirmed to TWZ that the U.S. is attacking Iran. Including strikes from air and sea, the official said. See updates down below.

Details remain extremely limited at this time, but what we know is that Israel struck targets as part of what it is calling a preemptive strike. Images from the capital show smoke plumes rising in urban areas. In addition, we have seen video from Iraq showing what appear to be low flying cruise missiles or possibly fighter aircraft. Iraq has been the primary access point for the Israeli Air Force in past strikes on Iran.

Air force plane transporting cash veers off runway and into busy road; crowds scramble for scattered banknotes in the wreckage.

At least 20 people have been killed and more than 30 injured after a Bolivian Air Force Hercules transport plane, carrying a cargo of newly printed banknotes, crashed onto a busy highway while attempting to land in bad weather near the capital, La Paz.

The military plane was attempting to land on Friday evening at El Alto International Airport when it skidded off the runway and ploughed into a nearby road, local authorities said.

“There are about 20, maybe a few more,” Police Colonel Rene Tambo, head of the police homicide division in El Alto, said of the number of people killed.

Defence Minister Marcelo Salinas said the Hercules C-130 “landed and veered off the runway” and came to a stop in a field.

Firefighters responding to the crash successfully extinguished a fire that broke out, the minister said, noting that the cause of the crash remains under investigation.

“A heavy hailstorm” was falling and “there was lightning” when the plane went down, Cristina Choque, a 60-year-old vendor whose car was struck by plane wreckage, told the AFP news agency.

Footage shared on social media showed chaotic scenes as crowds gathered at the crash site.

Some people appeared to collect banknotes scattered among debris from the aircraft, the wrecked vehicles and the bodies of victims.

Authorities used water hoses and tear gas to push back onlookers and looters.

The Ministry of Defence, in a statement, said later that “the money transported in the crashed aircraft has no official serial number… therefore it has no legal or purchasing power”.

The ministry also warned that the “collection, possession, or use” of the money “constitutes a crime”.

Bolivian Air Force General Sergio Lora said that two of the six crew members of the aircraft were still unaccounted for.

The central bank was expected to brief reporters later on Friday regarding the stricken plane’s cargo.

Bolivia’s La Paz, situated at an altitude of 3,650 metres (11,975 feet) and surrounded by Andean mountain peaks, is the highest administrative capital in the world.

These are the key developments from day 1,465 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Here is where things stand on Saturday, February 28:

Fighting

• Russia struck port infrastructure overnight in Ukraine’s southern Odesa region, igniting fires and damaging equipment, warehouses and food containers, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksii Kuleba said.
• A localised truce has been established near the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant to allow repairs to power lines, Russian news agencies report, citing the head of Russia’s state nuclear corporation.
• Ukraine shot down a drone near the border with Romania during a Russian attack on port infrastructure on the Danube River, Romania’s Ministry of National Defence said.
• Romania said it scrambled fighter jets and that the drone was brought down 100 metres (110 yards) from the Romanian village of Chilia Veche, on the opposite side of the Danube River to Ukraine.
• Russian forces have taken control of the village of Biliakivka in the Dnipropetrovsk region of eastern Ukraine, the Russian RIA Novosti state news agency reported, citing the Ministry of Defence.
• Ukraine’s military said it struck an oil depot in the Russian-occupied Luhansk region overnight, causing a large fire at the facility.
• Firefighters were trying to bring a fire at an oil refinery in Russia’s southern Krasnodar region under control, local officials said early Saturday.
• Ukraine is considering forming partnerships with allies to build air defences capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and to address a critical shortage of munitions for United States-made Patriot systems, the country’s defence minister said.
• Ghana’s Foreign Minister Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa said 55 Ghanaians had been killed fighting in Ukraine, and that some 272 citizens of the African country are believed to have been lured to fight for Russia in Ukraine since 2022.

Regional security

• The Swedish military intercepted a suspected Russian drone off the country’s south coast while a French aircraft carrier was docked in Malmo, officials said.
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “absurd” to suggest the drone that was electronically disabled near a French aircraft carrier in Sweden earlier this week was Russian.
• The European Commission said Croatia is assessing whether it can legally import seaborne Russian crude to supply Hungary and Slovakia through its Adria pipeline.
• The move by Croatia follows after oil supplies via the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia – the only European Union countries still importing Russian oil – were halted last month due to damage Ukraine blamed on a Russian drone strike.
• In a video posted on Facebook, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban urged Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to grant Hungarian and Slovak inspectors access to repair and restart the Druzhba pipeline.

• President Zelenskyy said he had not been offered nuclear weapons by the United Kingdom or France, but added he would accept such an offer “with pleasure”, after Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service accused both countries of working to provide Kyiv with a nuclear bomb.
• Poland’s parliament approved a law to implement the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) defence procurement programme aimed at boosting member states’ military readiness.

Economy

• The International Monetary Fund said its executive board had approved an $8.1bn, four-year loan for Ukraine, anchoring a broader $136.5bn international support package. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need $588bn for post-war reconstruction.
• Economists say Russia is grappling with heavy state defence spending alongside deepening structural challenges, including labour shortages and high inflation.
• Ukraine’s major steelmaker ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih said it is closing another division due to a worsening energy crisis caused by continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s power system.

Peace talks

• Bilateral talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Geneva concluded on Thursday, with Kyiv saying preparations are under way for the next round of negotiations aimed at ending the war.
• Ukraine’s chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, said on X that discussions were held in two formats: separate meetings with the United States and a trilateral session involving the US and Switzerland.
• Umerov said participants spoke with President Zelenskyy and were working to ensure the next three-sided meeting with Russia on a settlement is “as substantive as possible”.

Politics and diplomacy

• Former British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has begun advising the Ukrainian government on economic renewal as Kyiv works to rebuild its energy sector before next winter.
• Finland, Ukraine and the Czech Republic will skip the opening ceremony of the Milano Cortina Paralympics in protest against the inclusion of Russian athletes competing under their own flag while the war in Ukraine is ongoing.
• German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said “diplomacy cannot succeed at the moment” with Russia, and that greater emphasis should be placed on defending Ukraine from Moscow’s aggression.

Oman’s Foreign Minister says most recent indirect talks between US, Iran ‘really advanced, substantially’ and diplomacy must be allowed do its work.

Iran agreed during indirect talks with the United States never to stockpile enriched uranium, said Oman’s top diplomat, who described the development as a major breakthrough.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi also said on Friday that he believed all issues in a deal between Iran and the US could be resolved “amicably and comprehensively” within a few months.

“A peace deal is within our reach … if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there,” Al Busaidi said in an interview with CBS News in Washington, DC, after Oman brokered the third round of indirect talks between the US and Iran in Geneva on Thursday.

“If the ultimate objective is to ensure forever that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, I think we have cracked that problem through these negotiations by agreeing [on] a very important breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before,” Al Busaidi said.

“The single most important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb,” he said.

“Now we are talking about zero stockpiling, and that is very, very important because if you cannot stockpile material that is enriched, then there is no way that you can actually create a bomb,” he added.

There would also be “full and comprehensive verification by the IAEA [International Atomic Energy Agency]”, he said, referring to the UN’s nuclear watchdog.

Oman’s top diplomat also said Iran would degrade its current stockpiles of nuclear material to “the lowest level possible” so that it is “converted into fuel, and that fuel will be irreversible”.

“This is something completely new. It really makes the enrichment argument less relevant, because now we are talking about zero stockpiling,” Al Busaidi said.

Regarding recent US demands regarding Iran’s missile programme, Al Busaidi said: “I believe Iran is open to discuss everything”.

Asked if he thought enough ground was covered in the most recent talks in Geneva to hold off a US attack on Iran, the minister said, “I hope so.”

“We have really advanced substantially, and I think, obviously, there remains various details to be ironed out, and this is why we need a little bit more time to really try and accomplish the ultimate goal of having a comprehensive package of the deal,” he said.

“But the big picture is that a deal is in our hands,” he added.

The foreign minister’s comment followed after he met earlier on Friday with US Vice President JD Vance and as US President Donald Trump continued to sabre-rattle while at the same time declaring he favoured a diplomatic solution with Tehran.

Trump said on Friday that he was not happy with the recent talks that concluded in Geneva.

“We’re not exactly happy with the way they’re negotiating,” Trump told reporters in Washington, adding that Iran “should make a deal”.

“They’d be smart if they made a deal,” he said.

Trump later said that he would prefer it if the US did not have to use military force, “but sometimes you have to do it”.

The US and Iranian sides are expected to meet again on Monday in Vienna, Austria, for more indirect negotiations.

“My sister told me that she was in the car when the plane crashed. The plane’s tire fell on the car, and my sister was injured because the impact of the tire hit her on the head, so we rushed her to the hospital,” one relative told the Reuters news agency.

Caracas, February 27, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – Venezuelan National Assembly President Jorge Rodríguez announced on Wednesday that he had received the resignations of Attorney General Tarek William Saab and Ombudsman Alfredo Ruiz. 

Both officials had been ratified in their positions in October 2024 for a seven-year term extending through 2031. Rodríguez did not specify the motives expressed by Saab and Ruiz in their resignation letters.

Following the officials’ departure, lawmakers declared a parliamentary urgency and appointed a 13-member committee tasked with selecting candidates and appointing new figures to both posts within 30 days.

In the interim, at Rodríguez’s proposal, the Venezuelan parliament appointed Saab as acting ombudsman, while naming Larry Devoe—formerly executive secretary of the National Human Rights Council—as acting attorney general.

Under normal legal procedure, Saab’s post would be temporarily filled by the deputy attorney general. However, Rodríguez explained that the position is currently vacant, requiring parliament to adopt extraordinary measures.

A lawyer by training, Tarek William Saab was part of the legal defense team for Hugo Chávez following the 1992 civil-military uprising and later represented relatives of leftist militants and guerrillas who were tortured or disappeared during the Fourth Republic period. He served as ombudsman from 2014 to 2017, when the National Constituent Assembly appointed him attorney general after the removal of his controversial predecessor Luisa Ortega Díaz.

As the country’s top prosecutor, Saab took charge of several high-profile cases, including the arrest of former Oil Minister Tareck El Aissami. Saab likewise headed Venezuela’s relations with the International Criminal Court, accusing the tribunal of “lawfare” in its investigation of human rights abuses committed by Venezuelan authorities.

Alfredo Ruiz, a professor and founding member of the social organization Red de Apoyo por la Justicia y la Paz (Support Network for Justice and Peace), had served as ombudsman since 2017.

Larry Devoe is a lawyer specializing in criminal and criminological sciences. He previously held several positions within the Ombudsman’s Office and was appointed executive secretary of the National Human Rights Council in 2014. He is currently a member of the Peace and Coexistence Program established in January by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez.

Following the temporary appointments, opposition lawmaker Henrique Capriles described Saab’s designation as acting ombudsman as “an insult to victims.”

Speaking to reporters after the legislative session, Capriles accused Saab of being “responsible for persecution and criminalization” in Venezuela and criticized his new role. 

“It is an insult to victims, to those of us who expect that public powers in this country will change—that there will be institutions serving the interests of Venezuelans and not the government,” he said.

Regarding Devoe, Capriles argued that he is “someone close to the ruling party,” adding that the country “needs a truly independent attorney general and ombudsman.”

Parliamentary commission processes amnesty requests

The resignations come amid the implementation of an Amnesty Law that has facilitated the release of detainees accused or convicted of political violence dating back to 1999. The legislation covers 13 specific periods between January 1, 1999, and 2026, mostly related to “protests and violent events.”

Jorge Arreaza, head of the National Assembly’s Special Commission for the Development and Implementation of the Amnesty Law for Democratic Coexistence, reported on Friday that 8,110 individuals have filed petitions for amnesty since the law’s approval last week.

According to the Socialist Party deputy, 223 individuals previously in prison have been released, while 4,534 people subject to parole-type measures—such as mandatory court appearances or house arrest—have been fully cleared.

Far-right politicians Freddy Superlano and Juan Pablo Guanipa, both accused by authorities of terrorism and criminal conspiracy, were among those released in recent days.

In total, 4,757 individuals have benefited from the law to date, according to Venezuelan officials. Arreaza added that Venezuela’s justice system remains on permanent alert to expedite procedures for cases that qualify for amnesty.

Edited by Ricardo Vaz in Caracas.

The administration of United States President Donald Trump has broadened its prosecution of the protesters involved in a church demonstration to 39 people, up from nine.

The demonstration was part of a backlash to Trump’s deadly immigration surge in the midwestern state of Minnesota, but officials have sought to frame the protest as an attack on religious freedom.

Attorney General Pam Bondi announced the expanded indictment on Friday in a message posted to social media.

“Today, [the Justice Department] unsealed an indictment charging 30 more people who took part in the attack on Cities Church in Minnesota,” Bondi wrote. “At my direction, federal agents have already arrested 25 of them, with more to come throughout the day.”

She added a warning to other protesters who might seek to disrupt a religious service.

“YOU CANNOT ATTACK A HOUSE OF WORSHIP,” Bondi said. “If you do so, you cannot hide from us — we will find you, arrest you, and prosecute you. This Department of Justice STANDS for Christians and all Americans of faith.”

Appealing to Christian voters

Since taking office for a second term, Trump has sought to appeal to Christian conservatives by launching initiatives, for example, to root out anti-Christian bias and prevent alleged acts of Christian persecution, both domestically and in countries like Nigeria.

But critics have accused his administration of attempting to stifle opposition through its prosecution of the Minnesota protest attendees.

Some of those indicted deny even being a part of the January 18 protest. Defendants like former CNN anchor Don Lemon and reporter Georgia Fort say they attended in their capacity as journalists.

Both have pleaded not guilty to the charges and have publicly questioned whether their prosecution is an attempt to curtail freedom of the press.

The superseding indictment, filed on Thursday, levies two counts against the 39 defendants, accusing them of conspiracy against the right of religious freedom and efforts to injure, intimidate or interfere with the exercise of religious freedom.

“While inside the Church, defendants collectively oppressed, threatened and intimidated the Church’s congregants and pastors by physically occupying the main aisle and rows of chairs near the front of the church,” the indictment reads

It also describes the protesters as “engaging in menacing and threatening behavior” by “chanting and yelling loudly” and obstructing exits.

A magistrate judge on January 22 initially rejected the Justice Department’s attempt to charge nine attendees who were at the protest.

But the department sought a grand jury indictment instead, which was filed on January 29 and made public the next day.

A reaction to Trump’s immigration surge

The protest, dubbed “Operation Pullup”, was conceived as a response to the violent immigration crackdown that had unfolded in Minnesota.

Many of the enforcement efforts centred on the metropolitan area that includes the Twin Cities: St Paul and Minneapolis.

Trump had repeatedly blamed the area’s large Somali American population for a welfare fraud scandal involving government funds for programmes like Medicaid and school lunches.

In December, the Trump administration surged federal immigration agents to the region, nicknaming the effort Operation Metro Surge. At its height, as many as 3,000 agents were in the Minneapolis-St Paul area.

But the effort was plagued by reports of excessive violence towards detainees and protesters alike. Videos circulated of officers breaking the car windows of legal observers, pepper-spraying protesters and beating people.

Officers also engaged in the practice of entering homes forcibly without a judicial warrant, which advocates described as a violation of the Fourth Amendment of the Constitution. Cases of unlawful arrests were also reported.

But a turning point came on January 7, when an agent with Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) was caught on camera shooting into the vehicle of 37-year-old mother Renee Good. She died, and her killing sparked nationwide protests.

Operation Pullup took place at Cities Church in St Paul less than two weeks later.

It was intended as a demonstration against the church’s pastor, David Easterwood, who serves as a local official for ICE.

Several protesters have indicated that they are prepared to fight the government’s charges over the incident, citing their First Amendment rights to free speech.

Some also said that they intended to remain vigilant towards government immigration operations, even after Trump administration officials announced Operation Metro Surge was winding down in mid-February.

“This is not the time to be Minnesota Nice,” one protester, civil rights lawyer Nekima Levy Armstrong, wrote on social media last week. “It’s time for truth, justice, and freedom to prevail.”

The U.S. Air Force now has at least 14 aerial refueling tankers forward-deployed in Israel ahead of potential strikes on Iran. Beyond supporting U.S. aircraft, an equally important role the tankers — and those spread across the region — could play is refueling Israeli fighters joining in the fight. The Israeli Air Force’s (IAF) entire tanker fleet consists of just seven nearly antique KC-707s, which imposes inherent limits on range, loiter time, sortie rates, loadout options, and other aspects of tactical air operations. Giving the IAF the full tanking resources of the U.S. would unlock its full combat potential.

Nine KC-46s and five KC-135s have arrived at Ben Gurion Airport since the start of this week. Ben Gurion is Israel’s main international airport, and is situated just to the southeast of Tel Aviv, roughly in the center of the country.

At least nine US Air Force refueling tankers have arrived at Israel’s Ben Gurion Airport as part of the US’s massive buildup of military forces in the Middle East. Jack Guez, AFP. pic.twitter.com/qNFy677lnE

— Benjamin Alvarez (@BenjAlvarez1) February 27, 2026

At least 11 U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptors are also now forward-deployed to the IAF’s Ovda Air Base in the southern tip of Israel. The F-22s had flown there after making a stop at RAF Lakenheath in the United Kingdom. A 12th Raptor reportedly had to return to Lakenheath due to a technical issue, but whether it may now have made its way to Israel is unclear.

Intersting choice.

USAF F-22 fighter jets redeployed from the UK will be stationed at the Ovda Air Base in southern Israel, per reports.

H/t to @EISNspotter as I believe that he broke the news first.

At this moment, we know about the redeployment of 11 F-22s (one from the… https://t.co/v1MKiiDXHr pic.twitter.com/4KOFvJl6yd

— Status-6 (War & Military News) (@Archer83Able) February 24, 2026

The tankers at Ben Gurion and the F-22s at Ovda are relatively small parts of the massive buildup of U.S. military forces across the Middle East in recent weeks. The large influx of U.S. airpower has caused crowding at other available bases in the region that sit outside the range of Iran’s short-range ballistic missiles and other standoff weaponry, which clearly played a part in deciding to utilize Israeli facilities for the deployment of additional aircraft. Israel would also be under threat of heavy retaliation in the event of any new U.S. operation targeting Iran. U.S. aircraft in Israel would be well-positioned to help provide more immediate defense against incoming Iranian threats, but those assets could also contribute heavily to strikes on Iran.

At the same time, as TWZ has previously noted, there are very strong signs that Israeli forces will be fully integrated into the defensive and offensive components of any potential new U.S. operation against Iran. The KC-46s and KC-135s now at Ben Gurion are a tanker force twice as big as what the IAF has in its inventory today. Each KC-46 also carries more fuel to offload to receivers than a KC-707 or a KC-135. All of this could offer a major boost in aerial refueling capacity, and the operational benefits that come along with that, to Israeli forces.

From the very start of what became the 12 Day War between Israel and Iran, TWZ pointed out that committing U.S. tankers to the fight could have massive force multiplying impacts for the IAF. In the weeks that followed, there were reports that the United States had done just this, but clandestinely and to a very limited degree, to help sustain the Israeli air campaign. The U.S. Air Force subsequently denied that this had been the case, after which we delved deep into what Israel would have otherwise had to have done to keep up the operational tempo.

As we wrote:

“Fitting as much external fuel on the fighters – the IAF’s F-15 fleets and F-16Is are all notably fitted with conformal fuel tanks and have the ability to carry drop tanks – was clearly necessary. Even dropping external tanks once they are empty to maximize range appears to have been part of the plan during the initial high-volume strikes. While drop tanks are expendable, they are not cheap and are usually retained unless performance has to be regained due to enemy threats or an in-flight emergency occurs. Dropping them to maximize an aircraft’s range is also an established tactic, but not a very sustainable one over the long term. It’s also one that is not needed if tanker support is readily available, nor is equipping the jets with maximum external fuel in the first place, in many circumstances.”

“Flying very carefully planned flight profiles to squeeze every bit of efficiency out of the range of IAF tactical jets was also clearly a tactic employed, although it leaves very little margin for error or combat contingencies. In addition, we know that Israel’s F-35Is have been tweaked to provide extra range. We don’t know exactly what this entails, and it could be a cocktail of measures, from software tweaks to internal or external fuel tanks. Regardless, it was reported that many IAF fighters landed on fumes after their initial sorties.”

“Regardless, maximizing Israel’s fighter force of close to 300 aircraft (total inventory, not what is actually available at any given time) in the opening waves of the war with just seven tankers may have been a feat that can be explained by careful planning, drop tanks, and the use of long-range standoff weaponry, at least early on. As the war continued, the magnitude of the sorties may have dropped, but the geographical depth and power of their strikes increased. These operations were sustained for nearly two weeks.”

“During the conflict, TWZ discussed how, at a certain point, Israel would have to drastically reduce its cadence of operations or wrap up the war. If the U.S. had not struck Fordow with B-2s, it’s possible the war would not have ended until the IDF was able to deal with that very hardened target, which would have likely required a ground operation very deep into a highly-defended area of Iran. Strikes would have eventually slowed as the IAF’s sortie rates degraded, and especially those of its overworked and geriatric tankers.”

As an aside, Israeli Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter offered what looks to be the first official confirmation that range-extending fuel tanks for the F-35I are in service in an interview earlier this month. “We developed fuel tanks that extend the aircraft’s range without compromising stealth,” Leiter told the Israel Hayom newspaper.

Questions remain about these tanks, including whether they are internally or externally mounted. To date, no pictures have emerged that definitively show them fitted to an F-35I.

Regardless, truly robust tanker support would fundamentally change the IAF’s planning processes and operational possibilities. Access to the USAF’s tanker ‘bridge’ that will cover large swathes of the Middle East, keeping combat aircraft in the fight, will be an unprecedented operational reality for the IAF. More aerial refueling capacity would enable tactical jets to fly further, loitering over areas of the battlespace longer, and carry heavier ordnance loads. Greater reach and time on station could be extremely valuable when hunting for mobile high-value targets, like Iranian ballistic missile launchers. More range and loiter time could be equally important for responding to large waves of incoming Iranian missiles and drones in retaliation.

Far greater tanker support would also provide much higher safety margins for aircraft returning low on fuel from longer-range and/or long-duration missions. As noted earlier, it was reported that IAF fighters often landed on fumes after their initial sorties during the 12 Day War. It is somewhat shocking that aircraft were not lost to fuel starvation alone considering how closely they were operating to the edge of their endurance. Tankers forward-deployed in Israel could be similarly critical for providing recovery tanking, giving IAF aviators an extra margin of flight time, especially if everything doesn’t go as planned. The same can be said for U.S. fighter aircraft operating out of Israel. The F-22 has a notoriously short combat radius, for instance. Fuel starvation was an issue even in the mission to capture Maduro, for instance.

All around, U.S. tankers refueling Israeli jets during a future operation against Iran could only help greatly magnify the contributions of the latter, which would already be substantial in this scenario. IAF involvement would add hundreds of fighter aircraft, unique munitions, and more to the equation. On top of materiel aspects, Israeli pilots would bring immense experience about operations over Iran gained during the 12 Day War, as well as the benefits of analysis of lessons learned from the conflict. The rest of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli intelligence apparatus would be able to provide other kinds of critical support.

12 Days of Precise Action

All of this also underscores the importance of Israel’s effort now to acquire a new fleet of six KC-46 tankers to replace its aging KC-707s. At least as of 2022, Boeing was expected to deliver the first KC-46s to the IAF before the end of this year.

It is still to be seen whether the U.S. will launch a new operation against Iran, and what role Israel will play if that decision is ultimately made. Many other questions remain to be answered, as well, as TWZ just recently explored in detail.

“It’d be nice if we could do it without, but sometimes you have to do it with,” U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters as he left the White House earlier today in response to a question about possible strikes on Iran. “We have the greatest military anywhere in the world. There’s nothing close. I’d love not to use it, but sometimes you have to.”

Trump on military force against Iran: “It’d be nice if we could do it without, but sometimes you have to do it with. We have the greatest military anywhere in the world. There’s nothing close. I’d love not to just it but sometimes you have to.” pic.twitter.com/kDh9oOeoPK

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) February 27, 2026

“They should make a deal, but they don’t want to quite go far enough. It’s too bad,” Trump also said today. “We’re not happy with the negotiation.”

“They don’t want to say the key words, ‘We’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,’ and they just can’t get there… So I’m not happy with the negotiation,” says @POTUS on Iran. pic.twitter.com/XN0S4ObS2x

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) February 27, 2026

“I met Vice President J.D. Vance today and shared details of the ongoing negotiation between the United States and Iran and the progress achieved so far,” Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi also wrote in a post on X today. “I am grateful for their engagement and look forward to further and decisive progress in the coming days. Peace is within our reach.”

I met Vice President JD Vance today and shared details of the ongoing negotiation between the United States and Iran and the progress achieved so far. I am grateful for their engagement and look forward to further and decisive progress in the coming days. Peace is within our… pic.twitter.com/fMHxWV0jgl

— Badr Albusaidi – بدر البوسعيدي (@badralbusaidi) February 27, 2026

U.S. and Iranian officials met in Oman yesterday for a second round of talks aimed at avoiding a conflict, and focused on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The results of that engagement were inconclusive, though there are publicly stated plans for another round of talks next week.

If the U.S. government does decide to take action against Iran, the tankers at Ben Gurion are among the forces now in place to swing into action, and could easily find themselves refueling Israeli jets, as well as American ones. U.S. Air Force tanker support would be a massive force multiplier for the IAF that would allow it to have an even greater impact than it had in the 12 Day War.

Contact the author: joe@twz.com

The U.S. military used a laser to shoot down a Customs and Border Protection (CBP) drone over southwest Texas earlier this week, U.S. officials confirmed to The War Zone. We now know that this drone was small in size and was engaged by AeroVironment’s LOCUST directed energy weapon. The friendly fire incident spurred expanded airspace restrictions over the Fort Hancock area that will last for four months. It also gives credence to the FAA’S concerns about the operational deployment of counter-drone laser weapons along the border. The same system was used to fire at suspected Mexican cartel drones flying across the southern border into Texas two weeks ago, which resulted in a large airspace closure, general confusion and major headlines.

LOCUST Laser Weapon System

Federal officials confirmed last night that some kind of incident occurred on Wednesday, although a joint statement held back from making a definitive conclusion on exactly what happened.

“This reported engagement occurred when the Department of War employed counter-unmanned aircraft system authorities to mitigate a seemingly threatening unmanned aerial system operating within military airspace,” the Defense Department, CBP, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said in their statement.

“The engagement took place far away from populated areas, and there were no commercial aircraft in the vicinity,” the statement added.

The Temporary Flight Restrictions (TFR) covered an area located roughly 50 miles southeast of El Paso, the scene of a drone incident earlier this month, and the U.S. Army base at Fort Bliss, a facility that has counter-drone operations as part of its training remit. The TFR lasts until June 24 and prevents most pilots from flying over the area. Emergency services, like medevac flights and search and rescue operations, will be allowed to fly in the area if they contact Albuquerque Center, which will coordinate with U.S. Northern Command’s Joint Task Force-Southern Border, which is overseeing military operations in this area.

In an earlier statement, the FAA noted that an incident had led to it expanding a temporary flight restriction that was already in place around Fort Hancock. The restriction was issued for “Special Security Reasons,” the FAA added, and did not impact commercial flights in the region.

An unnamed U.S. official previously told CBS News that a laser weapon was used to down the drone in the area of Fort Hancock, a small community located on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Democrat Representatives Rick Larsen, André Carson, and Bennie Thompson, all members of the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, also issued a joint statement. “Our heads are exploding over the news that DoD reportedly shot down a Customs and Border Protection drone using a high-risk counter-unmanned aircraft system,” they said, criticizing an apparent lack of coordination between the agencies involved.

Earlier this month, CBP personnel reportedly used a laser directed-energy weapon to take down an object, which they assumed to be a drone operated by a Mexican drug cartel. Multiple reports said that the object turned out to be a Mylar balloon. A U.S. official told us at the time that the incident was the first time a laser weapon had been fired at drones in the continental U.S.

The system involved, identified by Reuters as an AeroVironment LOCUST laser counter-drone weapon, was lent to the CBP by the U.S. Army.

It was reported on that occasion that flight restrictions were imposed around El Paso as a result of a breakdown in coordination between the U.S. military and the FAA over the employment of a counter-drone system armed with a laser-directed energy weapon.

As we discussed at the time, the chaotic aftermath of the El Paso incident underscored the policy challenges and impediments the U.S. still faces in defending against drone incursions over the homeland. These are significant national security concerns that TWZ has been at the forefront of reporting on for years.

Under a federal statute commonly referred to as 130(i), “DoW can mitigate drone threats to protect military installations and missions inside the U.S., but it does not have general domestic airspace policing authority,” Scott Shtofman, Vice President & Counsel, Regulatory Affairs for the Association for Uncrewed Vehicle Systems International (AUVSI), told us in the wake of the El Paso incident.

Safety concerns about using directed energy weapons, and especially kinetic ones, to take down drones in the U.S. have been a major factor in why they haven’t been previously used in this role. A little less than a year and a half ago, officials at U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM), which has coordinating authority for counter-drone efforts in the U.S., said the use of such weapons was not yet on the table. The reason is that they can create dangerous or otherwise serious collateral effects that are less of a concern in a war zone.

While the details of this week’s incident are still to be established, it appears almost certain that this is the latest chapter in the ongoing saga of U.S. efforts to counter small drone incursions over the country.

Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com

As tensions between Israel and Iran periodically escalate, Israel has developed one of the world’s most sophisticated multi-layered air defence networks to counter ballistic missiles, drones, rockets, and cruise missiles. The system is designed to intercept threats at different ranges and altitudes, creating overlapping layers of protection against attacks from state actors and non-state groups.

The architecture reflects decades of missile threats from regional adversaries and has been refined through repeated real-world use. It combines domestically developed systems with U.S.-supported technology and integrated radar, command, and interception capabilities.

Long-Range Interception: Arrow System

The Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 systems form Israel’s top defensive layer against long-range ballistic missiles. Arrow-2 intercepts incoming missiles in the upper atmosphere, while Arrow-3 is designed to destroy threats in space before re-entry.

Developed primarily by Israel Aerospace Industries with support from Boeing, the Arrow program is tailored to counter high-altitude missile threats and allows for the safe dispersal of potential non-conventional warheads away from populated areas.

Mid-Range Shield: David’s Sling

David’s Sling targets medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles fired from roughly 100 to 200 km away. It also intercepts aircraft and drones.

The system was jointly developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and RTX Corporation and fills the operational gap between long-range Arrow interceptors and the short-range Iron Dome.

Short-Range Defence: Iron Dome

The Iron Dome system is designed to intercept short-range rockets, mortars, and drones. Operational since 2011, it uses radar tracking to determine whether an incoming rocket threatens a populated area. If the projectile is projected to land harmlessly, the system conserves interceptors by not engaging.

Originally designed to counter rockets with ranges of 4–70 km, analysts say its effective coverage has expanded. A naval variant deployed in 2017 protects maritime assets.

Directed Energy Layer: Iron Beam

Declared fully operational in late 2025, Iron Beam is a ground-based high-energy laser system designed to neutralize small aerial threats such as UAVs and mortar rounds. Instead of firing interceptors, the laser superheats targets until they fail mid-air.

Because it uses directed energy rather than missiles, Iron Beam is expected to dramatically reduce interception costs and provide rapid response against swarms of low-cost threats.

U.S. Support: THAAD Deployment

The United States deployed the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) system to Israel in 2024 to strengthen protection against ballistic missiles during heightened regional tensions. THAAD intercepts missiles in their terminal phase of flight and is a key component of U.S. strategic missile defence.

U.S. naval assets and ground-based systems have also assisted in intercepting missiles during previous attacks, highlighting close defence coordination between the two allies.

Air-to-Air Interception Capability

Beyond ground systems, Israeli fighter jets and attack helicopters have used air-to-air missiles to destroy incoming drones before they enter Israeli airspace. This adds flexibility and an additional interception layer, particularly against slow-moving aerial threats.

Analysis: A Layered Shield for a Complex Threat Environment

Israel’s defence network is built on the principle of layered interception, ensuring that if one system fails or is overwhelmed, another layer can engage the threat. This redundancy is crucial given Iran’s missile arsenal and the increasing use of drones and precision-guided munitions by regional actors.

The integration of Arrow, David’s Sling, Iron Dome, Iron Beam, and U.S. systems creates a comprehensive defence umbrella capable of engaging threats from space to low altitude. The addition of directed-energy weapons reflects a shift toward countering mass drone attacks and reducing the financial burden of interceptor missiles.

However, even sophisticated systems face challenges. Large-scale salvos could strain interceptor inventories, while evolving missile technologies and swarm tactics may test response capacity. As regional tensions fluctuate, Israel’s layered defence remains both a technological achievement and a critical strategic necessity.

With information from Reuters.

Economists are cautiously optimistic that advances in artificial intelligence could boost productivity across major economies, potentially helping governments manage soaring debt. Debt levels in most rich nations already exceed 100% of GDP and are projected to rise further due to ageing populations, higher defence spending, climate commitments, and rising interest payments.

U.S. policymakers, in particular, see AI as a potential driver to lift post-2008 productivity and free workers for higher-value tasks. Yet experts warn that even a strong AI-driven growth surge would not fully offset the structural pressures on public finances.

AI’s Potential Impact on Public Debt

The OECD and economists working with Reuters estimate that a productivity boost from AI could lower projected debt in OECD countries by up to 10 percentage points by 2036. That would reduce the expected rise from roughly 150% of GDP to around 140%, still sharply higher than current levels of approximately 110%.

In the U.S., best-case scenarios suggest debt could rise to 120% of GDP over the next decade instead of 100%, with one economist projecting little change. The key variables include whether AI creates more jobs than it displaces, whether firms pass productivity gains to workers via wages, and how governments manage spending.

Demographics and Limits

Demographics remain a central constraint. Ageing populations and entitlements tied to them are the root causes of long-term debt growth. Economists note that even with a productivity surge, labour shortages and slower immigration could offset AI gains. Countries like Italy and Japan may see smaller benefits from AI due to lower adoption rates and smaller sectors that can leverage the technology.

Fiscal Uncertainty

AI could raise government revenues through higher productivity and wages, but the effect is uncertain. If automation primarily benefits profits and capital rather than labour, fiscal gains could be limited. Additionally, public spending may rise alongside growth, dampening potential debt relief. Social security and other entitlement programs, indexed to wages, will continue to pressure budgets regardless of AI-driven efficiency.

Interest rates and debt servicing costs add another layer of uncertainty. Economists warn that recessions or financial shocks could prevent AI-driven productivity gains from providing timely relief.

Analysis

AI offers a potential “breathing room” for overstretched economies, buying time for governments to tackle structural deficits. Even if growth rises to 3% in the U.S. through 2040 above Federal Reserve expectations it will not solve fundamental fiscal challenges.

Economists stress that AI is a supplement, not a replacement, for fiscal reform. Rising productivity may help governments manage debt growth more sustainably, but without structural policy adjustments addressing demographics, entitlement programs, and spending priorities, the debt trajectory remains precarious.

Ultimately, while AI could improve efficiency and output, it is unlikely to carry the heavy lifting required to stabilize public finances on its own.

With information from Reuters.