Finance Desk

Published on
30/03/2026 – 11:15 GMT+2

It is an old market saying, but it has never felt more apt: when people are worried about the future, they buy gold — when they are worried about the present, they sell it.

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While the Iran war has raised longer-term concerns over energy security and global stability, the immediate fallout, in the form of surging oil prices and renewed inflation fears, has forced investors to prioritise liquidity and higher-yielding assets over metals.

Gold hit an all-time high of $5,602 (€4,873) at the end of January and looked to be heading higher still in early March, but has since dropped nearly 25% to a low of $4,100 (€3,567), trading around $4,500 (€3,915) at the time of writing.

The decline marks a dramatic pullback from gold’s extraordinary performance last year.

In 2025, the metal delivered one of its best annual gains in decades, rising more than 60% to record levels as central banks accumulated reserves and investors sought protection amid economic uncertainty.

The drop in 2026 has triggered a swift unwinding of leveraged positions in futures and exchange-traded funds which were riding last year’s tremendous rise.

This sharp reversal defies the traditional role of the metal as a refuge during geopolitical turmoil, with a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields proving far more influential.

Macroeconomic forces override safe-haven appeal

Rising US Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar have been the dominant headwinds for precious metals.

Higher oil prices stemming from the Iran war have lifted inflation expectations, prompting markets to price in fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts or even the possibility of tighter policy for longer, including potential hikes that were previously unexpected.

This has increased the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, while the US dollar’s strength has made it more expensive for international buyers.

The result has been a classic “flight to liquidity” rather than the expected flight to quality risk assets, as leveraged traders facing margin calls accelerated the sell-off.

The correction for metals has been one of the sharpest in recent memory.

Silver shares in gold’s downturn

Silver, which often amplifies gold’s moves, followed with an even bigger drop.

The white metal reached an all time high of $121 just one day after gold, on 29 January, but it has since dropped roughly 50% to as low as $61.

At the time of writing, it is trading at around $70.

Silver enjoyed an even more spectacular rally than gold in 2025, surging roughly 145% thanks to robust industrial demand from solar panels, electronics and electric vehicles, combined with investment buying.

In 2026, however, it has also declined sharply amid the same pressures of US dollar strength and higher yields, although its industrial fundamentals continue to offer longer-term support.

Published on 30/03/2026 – 7:07 GMT+2•Updated
8:29

European markets are set to open lower on Monday, with futures pointing to declines across major indices as investor sentiment remains cautious amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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As of early morning trading, Germany’s DAX was down around 0.5%, the FTSE 100 fell roughly 0.3%, and France’s CAC 40 was also in negative territory, according to IG data.

The weaker outlook follows losses in Asia, where shares mostly dipped overnight as concerns persisted around soaring oil prices and the potential for further escalation in the US war with Iran.

The declines follow steep losses on Wall Street on Friday, marking a fifth consecutive losing week — the longest such streak in nearly four years.

“US equity markets remained under sustained pressure, with the S&P 500 falling 2.1% for the week and the Nasdaq 100 sliding 3.2%. The Dow Jones held up comparatively better, declining 0.9%, owing to its lower technology weighting. Both the Nasdaq 100 and the Dow Jones have now officially entered correction territory after recording drawdowns of more than 10% below their respective peaks,” IG market analyst Fabien Yip said in a commentary note.

Asia-Pacific markets lower overnight

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 4.5% in early trading, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dropped 1.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi slid 3.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 1.7%, while the Shanghai Composite edged 0.7% lower.

Investor worries have been particularly acute due to the risk of disrupted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments.

Benchmark Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel in early trading, marking an increase of more than 50% since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. Prices were just over $70 a barrel when the war started. US benchmark crude was also up, at around $101 a barrel, reflecting continued volatility in global energy markets.

The surge comes as US President Donald Trump raised the possibility of American forces seizing Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main oil terminal in the Persian Gulf. He made the comment in an interview published early Monday by the Financial Times.

“Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the newspaper. “It would also mean we had to be there (on Kharg Island) for a while.”

Asked about Iranian defences there, he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.”

The US has already launched airstrikes it said targeted military positions on the island. Iran has threatened to launch its own ground invasion of Gulf Arab countries and new attacks if US troops land on its territory.

Meanwhile, G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors are set to hold an emergency meeting today to discuss the conflict and its consequences. It will mark the fourth time since the start of the war in Iran the G7 has convened at a ministerial level.

As emerging markets head toward their weakest month in years, some asset managers are moving in the opposite direction and adding to positions.

Firms including TT International and AllianceBernstein are buying beaten-down bonds and currencies, betting that central banks will shift

Several tech executives and directors, including those at CrowdStrike, Dell, Palo Alto Networks, and Taiwan Semiconductor, made significant stock transactions—mostly sales except for the CEOs of Palo Alto Networks and Taiwan Semiconductor, who made notable purchases.

Three deals across three key regions : Mercosur, India and Australia.

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While the Commission hailed the Australia agreement as a new geostrategic win, EU farmers continue to express deep discontent stemming from the Mercosur deal.

In practice, the backlash around the agreement with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay has done little to shift the Commission’s dual approach in its negotiating line. On the one hand, the commission kept making concessions on entry-level or mid-range farm goods such as beef, while on the other hand, it pushed for market access for high value-added exports —like wine, Geographical Indications (GI) and cars— with mixed results.

“The EU has all the assets to be an agri-food power,” Luc Vernet, from the export-focused brussels think tank Farm Europe, told Euronews, adding: “We should develop a broader strategy beyond high value-added products, covering all sectors and all levels of quality, because the European model delivers exceptional quality not just in luxury products.”

Yet the opposition to the Latin America deal — which triggered a legal challenge suspending its ratification — crystallised among EU farmers over fears of unfair competition from meat imports.

The Mercosur agreement granted quotas of 99,000 tonnes of beef per year, 25,000 tonnes of pork and 188,000 tonnes of poultry. Despite conditions added to new quotas in the Australia deal, EU farmers complain of imports piling up across successive agreements.

Concessions made on beef

Over eight years of talks with Canberra—the world’s second-largest beef exporter—Australia pushed hard for greater access for beef and sheep meat. Tensions intensified in 2023, when negotiations broke down after the EU rejected Australia’s demand for 40,000 tonnes of beef per year, offering no more than 30,000 tonnes instead.

The final deal agreed Tuesday allows 30,600 tonnes of beef annually into the EU. For sheep and goat meat, Brussels accepted a 25,000-tonne duty-free quota, while sugar was limited to 35,000 tonnes of raw cane for refining and rice to 8,500 tonnes a year.

However, perhaps drawing lessons from Mercosur, Brussels imposed multiple conditions on the quotas. Beef imports, which will have to be from grass-fed cattle, will be phased in over 10 years, sheep meat over 7 years, and rice over 5 years. Sugar will also be subject to certification under a private sustainability scheme.

Safeguard clauses, allowing both sides to react to market disruption, will apply for seven years – but are extended for sensitive farm goods : 15 years for beef, 12 for sheep and 10 for rice.

But a farmers’ representative told Euronews there were serious doubts about the effectiveness of the safeguard mechanisms: “Our experience in general with safeguards is that they are extremely difficult to activate because the burden of the proof is on us, farmers.”

The offensive agenda of the Commission

By contrast, agriculture was far less contentious in the India negotiations, where New Delhi itself resisted opening its market due to domestic farm sensitivities, particularly in dairy. EU sensitive products were largely excluded.

But wine featured prominently on Brussels’ offensive agenda, with Indian tariffs cut from 150% to 20% for premium wines and 30% for mid-range products over seven years. Tariffs for cars will also fall from 110% to 10% but under a quota of 250,000 vehicles a year after a decade – by which point Chinese manufacturers have great chances to have strengthened their position.

In negotiations with Australia, the EU again sought greater access for its wine but encountered strong opposition from domestic producers. In the end, the deal protects more than 1,600 EU wine GIs, plus over 50 new ones from 12 member states.

On Prosecco, Australian producers will still be allowed to use the term domestically to designate a grey grape variety, provided it is linked to Australian GI, with Canberra agreeing to stop exporting such wines after 10 years.

The EU also secured protection for 165 agri-food GIs and 231 spirit drink GIs. But it failed to remove Australia’s luxury car tax, securing instead preferential treatment for EU electric vehicles. But Brussels won improved access to critical raw materials – a key EU demand, that may have lead to more concessions on meat.

Published on
27/03/2026 – 17:47 GMT+1

EU lawmakers have overcome a key political hurdle in the negotiations of digital euro, making the project closer to approval, according to a draft text seen by Euronews.

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The Parliamentary rapporteurs involved in the legislation have found an agreement on the design of the digital euro, which will be able to function both online and offline.

The digital euro would be an electronic form of cash issued by the European Central Bank, designed to sit alongside banknotes and the payments services offered by commercial banks.

It has taken on new political weight as economic tensions between the EU and the US sharpen the debate over Europe’s reliance on American payment giants, such as Visa and Mastercard.

Under the European Commission’s proposal, digital euro users would have a wallet for both online and offline payments, with transactions designed so they are not trackable.

The situation in Parliament changed on Wednesday evening, when the centre-right politician Fernando Navarrete, who is the leading rapporteur on the file, announced the withdrawal of his position to reduce the scope of the digital euro to offline use only.

His position blocked the advancement of negotiations for months, jeopardising the whole legislative process, according to three sources familiar with the negotiations.

The political deadlock has pushed EU leaders to accelerate progress on the digital euro. At the European Council meeting on 19 March, they set a goal to have the digital euro legislation approved by the end of 2026.

With the Council, representing EU countries, having already adopted its position, the European Parliament is now the only institution left to advance the law.

“Thanks to our amendments and firm stance, we have finally broken the political deadlock on the digital euro. The distinction between online and offline has been removed, and it is now established as a single payment system,” Pasquale Tridico, the rapporteur for The Left, told Euronews.

However, lawmakers still need to agree on two key aspects: the “hold limits” and the “compensation.”

The hold limits determine the maximum amount a user can store in a digital euro wallet, while compensation sets out a model for reimbursing commercial banks that provide digital euro services.

Although negotiations are not yet complete, the text is expected to be voted on in the Parliament’s economy committee before the summer, according to a source familiar with the matter.

Published on
27/03/2026 – 12:15 GMT+1

The EU approved a sweeping customs reform to handle growing trade volumes and streamline the application of its standards.

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The agreement, which was reached on Thursday evening, introduces new tools to improve the collection of customs duties and increase controls on non-compliant or unsafe goods, without imposing excessive burdens for authorities and traders.

“Today’s agreement marks the greatest reform since the creation of the Customs Union in 1968”, Cypriot Finance Minister Makis Keravnos said in a statement following the adoption of the reform. “This modern toolbox will facilitate trade and ensure the proper collection of duties, in a simplified manner, and with the required legal certainty”, the minister added.

Customs management and trade have gained renewed urgency after trade volumes have sharply increased in the last years. Some €4.6 billion low-value items under €150 were imported to the EU in 2024, representing an average of 12 million parcels per day, according to European Commission data. That is a major increase from the €2.3 billion that entered in 2023 and €1.4 billion in 2022.

In addition, uncertainties over US tariffs, combined with new EU trade deals such as those with MERCOSUR and Australia, make this reform particularly timely.

EU customs data hub

The new rules foresee the creation of an EU customs data hub, which will be an online platform to facilitate the monitoring of trade flows without disrupting their smooth operation.

Businesses importing and exporting from the EU will only need to submit customs information on that single portal.

The hub, which will be operational for e-commerce from July 2028, will be managed by a new European Custom Authority, headquartered in Lille, France.

The Authority will oversee the EU customs by coordinating national offices and supporting them in the risk management. In particular, the Authority will analyse the import and export data to flag cargos that poses the highest risk for inspection.

The reform will also introduce simplified procedures for “trust and check traders” for transparent businesses that will not be subjected to active customs interventions.

For e-commerce operators that fail to comply with EU standards, it will be applied a new system of financial penalties.

The reform foresees a new EU handling fee for small parcels entering the EU starting November 2026, with the exact amount to be decided by the European Commission. From July to November, a temporary €3 tax will apply to all parcels under €150.