Finance Desk

Latin America’s Lost Growth: Deindustrialization Deepens

Deindustrialization and recommodification have been setting Latin American economies back for decades. Can a push for greater productivity put them on track again?

In the 10 years from 2014 to 2023, Latin America’s aggregate economy managed to quietly reach depths unknown even during the dismal Lost Decade that followed the onset of the region’s debt crisis in 1982. The recent period logged average annual growth rates of 0.9%, compared to 2% a year four decades ago, notes Marco Llinás, head of Production, Productivity and Management Division at the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), a UN agency based in Santiago, Chile.

The Covid-19 pandemic made a dent, but two parallel trends contributed steadily throughout the period: deindustrialization and the recommodification of exports. Their origins predate 2014, and they can be observed across the region, with perhaps the exception of Mexico.

Future economic historians may wonder why nobody saw it coming, although contemporary analysts still disagree about the relative importance of the two elements. “The phenomenon of deindustrialization is not the same as recommodification,” says Llinás. “The two phenomena may or may not happen at the same time.”

Both continue to play out amid a confluence of factors: the decline and fall of globalization, China’s growing role in the region, and the Trump tariffs, to mention just a few. But how did it start?

Economists of all ideological stripes tend to agree on the steps that have traditionally facilitated the march from underdeveloped to developed. Nations begin with low value-added production and basic services. Then comes industrial development and the emergence of a working middle class. Ultimately, services prevail, often high-end ones fueled by technology. Think of South Korea. In the 1950s, it made headlines for battles in the Korean War over uninhabited strategic landmarks like Pork Chop Hill. Now, it is known as the home of Blackpink.

Until the debt crisis of the 1980s, Latin America seemed to be holding its own. Its aggregate growth rate was 5.2% per year (6.8% in powerhouse Brazil) from 1951 to 1980, ahead of the world (4.5%) and not much shy of Korea (7.5%) and Japan (7.9%), according to a 2004 paper by the Inter-American Development Bank. Using a narrow definition of manufactures, Brazil more than doubled the share of industrial exports in GDP from 10.8% in 1968 to 23% in 1973, fueled by industrial growth of 13.3% a year during that brief period known as the Brazilian Miracle.

From 1981 to 1993, saddled with the debt crisis and its aftershocks, the region stumbled behind with 1.7% annual growth while Korea continued to sprint ahead at 7.2%. As globalization began to help lift parts of the world out of poverty—albeit unequally—in the 1990s, Latin America mostly watched from the sidelines: either by choice, preferring relative isolation, or due to lack of competitiveness.

Premature Deindustrialization

“Premature deindustrialization” is the term economists use to describe a shift away from manufacturing before the economy in question has attained a robust level of industrial production. It happens at income levels lower than today’s richest nations have historically reached. The latter are sometimes called “post-industrial” societies, characterized by high-end, technologically enhanced service sectors.

Premature deindustrialization has also occurred in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of East Asia. But it’s especially striking in Latin America, given the very different trajectory its economies were on prior to the 1980s.

“Argentina’s manufacturing subsystem shows a clear shift toward low-tech employment, with an increasing dominance of low- and medium-low-tech industries, undermining the potential for higher-value-added manufacturing,” Martin Lábaj and Erika Majzlíková of the Bratislava University of Economics and Business write in a recent paper. Brazil “faces the most severe deindustrialization, characterized by a growing reliance on low-tech manufacturing and low-knowledge-intensive services, exacerbating its economic challenges.”

The contribution of manufacturing industries to Brazilian GDP fell from 36% in 1985 to just 11% in 2023, according to official statistics. “Why is it a problem?” Llinás asks. “Because industry has higher productivity and faster productivity growth. Plus, greater potential for expansion.”

Multiple factors cause premature deindustrialization, economists say: globalization; automation, stunting job growth; shrinking global demand for products.

They also point to a litany of “structural factors” that run from resource dependence to weak institutions; and policies that stunt investment such as high taxes, red tape, poor infrastructure, and cumbersome labor laws. “The country is very closed,” says Sérgio Goldman, a São Paulo-based corporate finance consultant, referring to his native Brazil.

Imports began to grow—from $60.4 billion in 1990 to $359.4 billion in 2000, according to World Bank statistics. A dominant traditional trade partner increased its exports of manufactured products to the region. Indeed, evidence of the political nature of Trump’s 50% tariff on Brazil included the fact that the US had a trade surplus with that country.

More recently, observers highlight closer trade ties with China and a subsequent influx of cheap manufactured goods, sometimes sending local producers reeling. “The auto parts sector in Colombia was really hurt by Chinese competition,” says William Maloney, chief economist for the Latin America and Caribbean region at the World Bank Group.

Given many countries’ history of protectionism, innovation is not top-ofmind among Latin American executives, according to Goldman. “My problem is with management,” he says. “Companies lack good managers.”

Whereas Japan parlayed its once abundant copper deposits into the establishment of leading global firms in the sector, Chile never seemed able to follow suit, Maloney notes: “In Chile, only a few firms are near the technological frontier.”

But is deindustrialization due primarily to “automation, trade, robots, or the China shock?” he asks. “It isn’t exactly clear.”

Recommodification

The second significant trend is “recommodification,” or the “reprimarization” of exports.

Thought to be emerging from commodity dependence during the last century, Latin America fell back on churning out greater volumes of raw materials during the commodity boom of the 2000s.

Driven by demand from China, but also India and other fast-growing economies, a 2000-2014 super cycle was followed by a second surge at the beginning of this decade. Each wave tends to leave export volumes at higher baselines; Brazilian soybean exports keep setting records, for example.

Commodities as a percentage of total exports in 2000 vs. 2020 jumped from 41.1% to 55.6% in Brazil, 63.1% to 83.2% in Chile, 55.6% to 65.1% in Colombia, and 73.2% to 85.3% in Peru, according to data provider Trading Economics.

Comparing 2024 to 2023, “agricultural products (11%) and mining and oil (11%) were the main contributors to growth in goods exports, while manufacturing exports remained stagnant,” ECLAC reports.

“Productivity Is Everything”

Pundits and policymakers are notoriously disputatious when it comes to Latin America; the region has dabbled for decades in everything from import substitution to the free market liberalism of the Milton Friedman-inspired Chicago Boys. Nowadays, however, they seem to be reaching a near consensus.

The post-2014 downturn “is in large part due to stagnant and even declining productivity,” posits Llinás. He adds, paraphrasing Nobel Prize-winning American economist Paul Krugman, “productivity isn’t everything, but in the long run it is everything.”

Four of the region’s leading economies—Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico—are implementing what Llinás calls “productive policies,” which he is careful to distinguish from old-school industrialization strategies. A common characteristic: the selection of a handful of priority sectors, industrial or not. These may include agriculture, mining, or services such as sustainable tourism.

The Brazilan program, for example, earmarked R$300 billion for credit, public purchases, regulatory reform, and infrastructure investments designed to benefit six sectors during the initial 2024-2026 period.

Investment in commodities also has its champions, especially given the potential for innovative spin-offs. Efforts to improve business practices in sectors such as mining and agribusiness can spur investments related to industrial processes and highend services, for example, say Llinás and Kieran Gartlan, a São Paulo-based managing partner of The Yield Lab Latam, a venture capital fund focused on agrifood and climate technology. Gartlan refers to large-scale farms such as Brazilian soybean producers as “open air factories” and points to start-up suppliers that are developing new technologies in fintech, drones, biotechnology, and beyond. His firm has mapped some 3,000 high tech start-ups in the Latin American agricultural sector.

But credit availability is proving a roadblock.

Private banks “don’t really have an appetitive” for farming, Gartlan notes; lacking the expertise to properly evaluate risk, “they put up big spreads that make [credit] expensive for farmers.” Many relatively large producers fail to invest in silos to store crops for sale when prices go up, for example. Instead, they live from harvest to harvest, paying off last season’s bills as the crop comes in.

The will to transform Latin America’s economy—much of it—in a more productive direction is there; the next step is for investors and lenders to buy in.

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Leveraging Scale And Reach To Create Global Connectivity

Global Finance (GF): What are the highlights of your professional journey, and what was appealing about your move to Scotiabank?

Francisco Aristeguieta (FA): Before joining Scotiabank in April 2023 to lead the group’s International and Global Transaction Banking (IGTB) businesses, I was CEO for custody services at State Street. Prior to that, I spent 25 years at Citibank, where I held several senior leadership roles including CEO for Asia, overseeing retail bank operations in the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and the UK. Earlier at Citi, I was CEO for Latin America, and previously led transaction banking at Citi in the region.

After about 30 years as a global banker, joining Scotiabank was a natural progression in my career. The bank’s focus around innovation, client-centricity, and global connectivity, mandated by the newly appointed CEO, aligned with my professional values and aspirations. It’s exciting for a bank of this scale to take this approach, and it plays to my strengths and experience in managing change, building strong teams, and improving performance.

GF: What role does Global Transaction Banking play in Scotiabank’s global strategy?

FA: Global Transaction Banking (GTB) plays a transformational role in Scotiabank’s global strategy. It enables us to deliver the full force of our footprint across corporate, commercial, and SME clients—supporting their needs in managing payrolls, collecting payments, paying suppliers, transacting in multiple currencies, and creating capital efficiency in their supply chains.

As a growth engine and anchor for client primacy, we are embedding Scotiabank into the operational and financial lifeblood of our clients by providing a full suite of transaction solutions like cash management, trade finance, liquidity, and digital integration.

Companies seek straightforward onboarding, a seamless digital interface that feels as intuitive as consumer platforms, and attentive, personalized service at every stage. In response, we’ve enhanced the end-to-end journey:

  • Clients now benefit from the Treasury Management Sales Officer (TMO) model that offers a single global point of contact to guide them through their banking needs wherever they operate.
  • We have organized our product implementations and servicing team across our footprint to ensure that clients experience the same high standard of service, regardless of their location.
  • And ongoing technology upgrades enable an always-on digital experience for managing payroll, payments, and multi-currency transactions.

By bringing these elements together, GTB delivers Scotiabank’s extensive footprint and capabilities in a way that puts client needs at the center—making us a differentiated leader in Canada and an increasingly competitive partner internationally.

GF: With products and services spanning the Americas, Europe, and APAC, how do you take advantage of this unique footprint?

Francisco Aristeguieta, Scotiabank
Francisco Aristeguieta, Group Head, International & Global Transaction Banking | Scotiabank

FA: We are leveraging the acquisitions we have historically made around the world by creating a connected network to become truly client centric, rather than product led. This involves using our footprint to create solutions and value propositions that are relevant to our clients, positioning us to become their primary banking partner.

Clients today expect a consistent digital experience wherever they operate. This includes having a single set of login credentials, the ability to view and take action on their cash positions across all markets, and straightforward access to products and services.

Driven by this evolution of client demands, we’re investing heavily in our digital platforms to ensure that, whether a client is in Canada, Mexico, the US, or further afield, they have a unified and intuitive experience. We do this by building a treasury platform that enables seamless connectivity, allowing clients to manage transactions and liquidity across borders with ease. Our platforms also provide data-driven insights, empowering clients to make informed decisions and optimise their cash flow. By integrating these capabilities, we’re not just connecting geographies—we’re connecting clients to the information and functionality they need to thrive globally.

GF: As businesses pursue cross-border opportunities across Canada, the US, and Mexico, how is Scotiabank supporting them in the current global trade environment?

FA: As the old playbook for global trade is being rewritten, our deep, hands-on knowledge of the markets in which we operate has never been more essential. This expertise—honed across Mexico, the US, and Canada—positions us uniquely to guide clients through today’s uncertainty. With around 10,000 employees in Mexico, where we are the fifth largest bank, and strong presence in the US and Canada, our understanding is comprehensive and current.

Our awareness of shifting trade dynamics, such as the growing significance of regional corridors and the rise of new partnerships, allows us to anticipate market needs and offer strategic advice. For example, the US–Canada–Mexico corridor alone accounts for more than US$1 trillion in annual cross-border trade, underscoring the increasing importance of interconnected regional markets.

As treasury teams face leaner structures and greater complexity—juggling technology, innovation, and risk management—our role as a bank is to act as a trusted advisor. We help clients navigate new markets, manage documentation, and simplify integration, deploying our balance sheet to support working capital and Capex financing, and optimizing treasury management for lasting resilience.

In a rapidly evolving environment, our market knowledge is the foundation for enabling clients to adapt, thrive, and seize opportunity amidst uncertainty.

GF: What is your perspective on Scotiabank’s GTB role as a connector of global capital and trade between Europe, APAC, and the Americas?

FA: Europe–particularly Spain–is a key investor in Latin America and the US. We also have a lot of clients from the UK, France, and Italy. In addition to our traditional role of financing these investments, we provide offshore CAD cash management and trade finance.

We also have presence in Asia. A lot of sovereign wealth funds and Asian companies are investing in Canada, Latin America, Mexico, and the US, so we can connect these flows.

Another example is our recent partnership with Davivienda, one of the largest banks in Colombia, which will enable us to participate in a business with greater scale and to provide clients with cash management services across its footprint.

Scotiabank’s commitment to the North America corridor, combined with our retail, commercial, and corporate banking strategy deployed at scale across our markets, positions us as a leading partner for globally connected businesses seeking a seamless treasury experience.

GF: How do you envisage the next stage of Scotiabank’s GTB transformation?

FA: Moving forward, our priority will be to keep the client experience front and center as we invest in our team and build an integrated vision to drive the next stage of GTB’s transformation.  In everything we do, we’re looking to make transaction banking simpler, faster, and more transparent.

Technology will be an important part of this plan as it continues to disrupt traditional cash management services. For example, a major focus of our strategy is the rollout of ScotiaConnect, our advanced digital banking portal now live in Colombia, Mexico, and in the US, with expansion planned across markets. ScotiaConnect delivers secure, single sign-on access for treasurers and CFOs, enabling real-time balance and transaction reporting.

Another key upcoming initiative is the enhancement of our cash management capabilities in the US, which allows us to transition from transactional deposit relationships to deeper, day-to-day cash management partnerships, ultimately increasing client primacy. With this launch, we are excited to service US-based needs of our clients. To address this significant opportunity, we have developed a robust roadmap of new capabilities and are committed to continued investment into 2026. We will be closely tracking adoption to ensure we are effectively meeting our client’s evolving needs and maximizing our impact on this market. 

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Small States, Big Wins: Latin America’s Economic Turnaround

Some of Latin America’s smaller nations are stealing the limelight as US tariffs bring economic headwinds to the region.

Some of Latin America’s smaller states are flipping the script on their larger rivals. Guatemala, Jamaica, and Barbados have all received credit rating upgrades this year and their economies have been bolstered by strong remittance growth and stable labor markets. Meanwhile, traditional stalwarts Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico grapple with uncertainty.

Brazil faces the twin threats of 50% tariffs, courtesy of US President Donald Trump, and the ongoing trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro, which has caught the attention of his friend in Washington. This has the potential to cause further difficulties for incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, but at the same time could revive his stuttering campaign for re-election.

In Colombia, a series of reforms aimed at boosting the rural economy has locked President Gustavo Petro in a series of battles. Attempts to force through reforms that would affect rural areas, including redistributing 570,000 hectares of land and recovering occupied areas linked to paramilitary leaders has seen Petro fight with Colombia’s congress, mayors and even infighting in his own party. Most recently this has been with mayors over a trip to Washington to discuss the war on drugs, with Petro arguing the group of local officials could not represent the country.

Mexico looks to narrowly avoid recession in 2025 as the World Bank estimates 0.2% growth for the year. President Claudia Sheinbaum has taken a conciliatory approach in dealings with the mercurial Trump, giving her government more time to sort out domestic issues including Pemex’s debt restructuring and reform of the judicial sector.

Tod Martinez
Todd Martinez, senior director and cohead of the Americas for Fitch Ratings

All this leaves some observers viewing the glass as half full, at least.

“Though we’ve revised down our projections for US growth quite a bit since the start of the year, our projection for Latin America has stayed stable,” says Todd Martinez, senior director and cohead of the Americas for Fitch Ratings’ sovereigns group. “That’s noteworthy, and signals that we’ve come a long way from the ‘When the US sneezes, Latin America catches a cold’ thesis that used to prevail in economic analysis of the region.”

Latin America is not homogenous, Martinez points out. Brazil and Mexico’s economies are slowing down after years of quality growth, with forecasts pointing downward for Mexico in particular. This has given a set of countries whose sovereign debt is categorized as “low-beta credit with defensive qualities,” by Wall Street experts including Barbados, Bahamas, Guatemala, Jamaica, and Paraguay, a chance to shine.

The catalyst is the mixture of a weakening US dollar and commodity prices that remain high, especially for metals. Remittances to the region, especially the Northern Triangle of El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, have shown growth up to 20%. Combined with methods that Latin American central banks honed during the pandemic to keep inflation under control and labor markets resilient, Latin American sovereign debt is being viewed positively.

Upgrades For Outliers

Guatemala was confirmed as BB by Fitch in February with its Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) Outlook improving from stable to positive and by Standard & Poor’s to BB+ in May. The state’s debt to GDP ratio has traditionally been small for the region, a result of its having not missed repayments since the 1980s combined with a lack of political will to take on too much debt. Debt to GDP this year is 28%, having averaged 27% from 2014 to 2024. But Guatemala’s tax-to- GDP ratio is also one of the lowest in the region; in 2022, tax revenues were just 14.4% of GDP against a Latin American and Caribbean average of 21.5%.

The largest economy in Central America, Guatemala is currently attempting to pass its biggest-ever budget, 163.78 billion quetzals ($21.36 billion). Having passed a Competition Law last November after decades of trying, the government is going big on infrastructure projects. These include a planned metro for the capital and upgrading its ports and the main La Aurora airport in Guatemala City.

In the Caribbean, Barbados remains a moderate risk for investors according to Wall Street analysts interviewed for this piece, but with a significant reduction in its debt-to-GDP burden—down to 77% from a peak in 2018 of 158%—and signs of economic recovery. These include projected 2.7% growth for this year, according to the Barbados Central Bank, with unemployment at its lowest in recent history. The recovery is in part down to innovative use of tools such as the first debt-for-climate-resilience swap, which raised $125 million last December, following a trend of swapping high-interest debt for more sustainable issues.

Moody’s revised its rating outlook upward for the Bahamas in April from stable to positive, and the same month, Fitch announced a BB- with stable outlook, complimenting the islands’ high GDP per capita and fiscal consolidation. The government’s budget deficit declined to 1.3% of GDP in the fiscal year that ended in June, from 3.7% in fiscal year 2022-23. The primary surplus hit 2.9% in the following fiscal year, its highest level in 25 years. The new global minimum tax could add another 1% to the country’s GDP according to Fitch, although Washington’s declaration that it would pull out of the minimum tax accord has thrown the project into doubt.

Jamaica maintains a BB- rating with a positive outlook following Fitch’s review in February. Analysts argue that if Jamaica were to sell sovereign debt, it would benefit from having demonstrated fiscal discipline under multilateral programs—a contrast to the Dominican Republic, which, despite decades of strong GDP growth, has not shown the same record of controlling its finances.

Back in Latin America, Paraguay has leveraged capital market reforms to attract foreign investment. In December, the Central Bank of Paraguay changed its rules for the issuance, custody, and trading of public debt securities, including allowing foreign investors to buy bonds through global custodian banks. Coupled with expanding foreign exchange and hedging transactions for foreign investors, the change pushed the state’s sovereign debt to investment grade. Foreign funds had already increased investment in guarani-denominated government bonds from 1.7% in 2023 to 5% in 2024 due to Central Bank reforms enacted with World Bank assistance.

Due Diligence A Must

Why the divergence between ratings for the region’s larger and smaller, frontier economies?

“It’s difficult to identify a single reason,” says Martinez, “but broadly speaking, it seems that these frontier markets either seem to be demonstrating stronger growth rates or tighter fiscal positions than their larger neighbors have been capable of.”

Whether the trend continues, he warns, Latin America has shown less inclination to drive ambitious reforms than have emerging markets in Asia and Europe. Yet, investors are increasingly interested in local currency debt in Latin America, suggesting growing confidence in the region at the expense of the US dollar.

Rich Fogarty
Rich Fogarty, head of the Disputes and Investigations Practice for Latin America at S-RM

If some countries are outperforming expectations, there are always some losers. An ongoing US Treasury Department investigation into Mexican financial institutions CIBanco, Intercam, and Vector has refocused the regional banking system on compliance with the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA). After a brief state intervention, Banco Multiva acquired CIBanco’s assets in August; the same month, Kapital Bank bought Intercam Banco, pledging to invest $100 million in it. This comes at a sensitive time for Kapital, which is looking for investors at a proposed valuation of $1.4 billion.

Rich Fogarty, head of the Disputes and Investigations Practice for Latin America at consultancy S-RM, says, “Compliance is an afterthought most of the time. There will be all sorts of risks with digital assets and digital banking, especially with cartel and TCO [transnational criminal organization] issues.”

Digital banking is of particular concern to Mexico, since it has seen a spurt of foreign fintechs attempt to break into its market in the past five years. Brazil’s Nubank now boasts over 12 million customers in Mexico alone and will soon be joined by Argentina’s Mercado Pago. A mixture of lax oversight, volume of entrants, ongoing investigations and diverse financial backgrounds has Fogarty concerned.

Both established economies in the region and those with significant room for development face a common challenge, however, Fogarty notes: US policy highlighted by potentially explosive antinarcotic action, a remittance tax, and tariffs that will affect commodity prices.

“There are tremendous opportunities independent of any of the political crosswinds or regulatory questions. Argentina, Panama, Brazil, and Mexico are real opportunities,” he says. But “given the increased scrutiny by this US administration on the region, which may be more transactional in nature, CEOs need to not just be doing due diligence, but going above and beyond. If they don’t, there are some potentially serious repercussions.”

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In conversation with Sabine Zucker, Head of Group Transaction Banking at Raiffeisen Bank International

Joseph Giarraputo, Founder and Editorial Director of Global Finance, speaks with Sabine Zucker, RBI’s Head of Group Transaction Banking, about the products and services required to support cross-border growth with smooth transactions and operational continuity in CEE markets.

Based on RBI’s over three decades of experience operating in these economies with 12 full-service banks, Zucker believes corporates have a lot to be excited about when looking at the region’s future. From Serbia, to Albania, to Croatia, for example, GDP growth is outpacing many Western European counterparts.

Yet companies need to be flexible in the face of the inevitable challenges stemming from uncertainty in today’s market environment as well as fluctuating geopolitical and compliance landscapes. 

A case in point is the need for risk mitigating products like guarantees and letters of credit. At the same time, local transaction banking and trade finance expertise is vital to interpret and overcome requirements that differ from country to country.

More specifically, companies expanding into the CEE region need robust and comprehensive cash management and payment solutions. In response, RBI developed CMIplus, a flagship cash management platform designed from the ground up to support real-time, omnichannel treasury operations

Effective trade finance solutions are also essential to managing supply chains.These are particularly important for those international corporates that need longer guarantees for different types of business, in turn calling for local staff with on-the-ground expertise.

Watch this video to get further insights into what it takes for international businesses to succeed in CEE markets, and how an experienced banking partner can help.

Unlock your business potential with insights and best practices from Raiffeisen Bank International straight to your inbox. Get your guide to expanding your business 

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EU inks agriculture deal with Ukraine even as political divisions remain over vast exports

An agreement designed to further liberalise trade between the EU and Kyiv came into force on Wednesday.

It will replace the deal in place since 2016, by expanding tariff-free access for Ukrainian goods and services.

However the new agreement has become a political headache for the European Commission, as Hungary, Poland and Slovakia are not lifting bans on Ukrainian agricultural imports.

“We are engaging with all the parties to try to find solutions,” Commission deputy chief spokesperson Ariana Podesta said on Tuesday.

“We believe (the agreement) is a stable, fair framework, that can be reliable both for the EU and for Ukraine, to ensure a gradual integration in our single market, while providing stable trade flows,” Podesta added.

The new deal includes safeguards limiting imports of certain sensitive products such as grains and oil. Nevertheless, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia have refused to lift their national bans on Ukrainian agri-food imports.

These restrictions were first introduced after the EU opened its market completely to Ukrainian agricultural products following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the Black Sea — a vital export corridor for Kyiv — was effectively blocked.

The resulting land corridors into the EU, designed to keep Ukrainian exports flowing, sparked anger among farmers in neighbouring countries who accused Brussels of allowing unfair competition.

Politically charged

The issue became politically charged, weighing on Poland’s 2023 general election and fuelling tensions in Slovakia and Hungary.

“After the war, imports of agriculture to the EU doubled. We have 117% increase compared to the pre-war levels,” Tinatin Akhvlediani, an expert at the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), told Euronews.

However, Akhvlediani added that “it has been unnecessarily politicised because these Ukrainian goods were easily absorbed by the neighbouring countries.”

Ukraine’s main agricultural exports — grain, sugar and oil — are largely unprocessed goods.

“This is complementary with the trading of the EU because it mostly exports processed agricultural goods,” Akhvlediani explained.

“Ukrainian goods in fact are highly demanded in the EU market. That explains why Ukraine is the third largest import partner for the European Union after Brazil and the UK.”

The new trade deal includes a “safeguard clause” allowing either side to impose protective measures if surging imports damage domestic industries.

Yet this has not eased concerns in neighbouring countries.

“Although Brussels wants to give farmers’ money to Ukraine, we are protecting the resources, the livelihoods of Hungarian producers and our market,” Hungarian Agriculture Minister István Nagy wrote on Facebook on Monday, as he and his EU peers met in Brussels.

The ongoing dispute illustrates the broader obstacles facing Ukraine’s path to EU membership.

Within the bloc, some are concerned about how Ukraine’s enormous agricultural capacity — 42 million hectares of cultivated land, the largest in Europe — would affect the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which distributes funds based on farm size.

Even if CAP payments were reformed to focus on production rather than land area, “Ukraine remains quite competitive,” Akhvlediani said.

“The solution could be that the EU puts transition measures in the accession treaty which would limit the benefit from certain policies or not benefit from them at all. This could be the case for the CAP. It’s completely up to the EU,” she concluded.

Romanian President Nicușor Dan, whose country also borders Ukraine, is one of the rare EU leaders to have spoken openly about the issue, saying the discussion about agriculture is “pending”.

According to the Romanian president, the risks of imbalances for the EU are “significant”, especially since Ukraine “does not currently meet the standards that we impose on the agricultural sector in the EU.”

“The discussions taking place are that, in terms of agriculture, Ukraine should have a special status so that it can continue to make significant exports to non-European countries while, in all other clusters, it should be treated as an equal,” Dan said.

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Brazil, Venezuela, and Peru React to New U.S. Tariff Regime

With a new US tariff regime in place, the region’s economies face their greatest disruption in at least a generation.

When US President Donald Trump initiated a new regime of tariffs on global imports reaching the US, investors reacted by retracting forecasts and rethinking investment dynamics while companies globally started preparing their doomsday scenarios.

The effects in Latin America were no different. Brazil, the worst affected economy, now faces tariffs up to 50% on its exports and services provided to the US: the second highest tariffs Trump has applied to any country, equal to those imposed on India and behind only those hitting China.

Most Latin American companies and economies are not affected as severely as Brazil, but Venezuela’s oil-exporting economy is now also affected by secondary tariffs on third countries doing business with it. The entire region also must reckon with the prospect of reduced global commerce flows and reshaped trade and investment dynamics.

Most Latin economies principally export agricultural products, commodities, textiles, and—in the cases of Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina—manufactured goods. The region’s economies find themselves navigating the greatest disruption in at least a generation. Ultimately, however, some sectors may benefit from trade diversion and new marketing openings.

Venezuela

Aside from Cuba, Venezuela is the only Latin American country heavily sanctioned by the US, which has frozen most of its direct trade in both directions. However, Venezuela still exports oil and gas to a variety of countries. These are now affected by 25% secondary tariffs for purchasing oil and commodities from the big exporter.

“Venezuela remains a rich country with substantial natural resources, enormous potential for investment and a low entrance ticket at the moment for those with patience to ride the current waves and a strategic approach to their portfolio,” says Horacio Velutini, director at Conapri, the agency for investment promotion in Venezuela, and former CEO of the Caracas Stock Exchange.

“We’ve had a highly controlled economy since 1920, heavily dependent on petrol exports, which created the space for never-corrected macroeconomic imbalances,” he notes. The US sanctions began in 2015, but “despite curbing Venezuelan exports to the US, they had the opposite effect of what was intended. New markets opened and the poorest people of the country ended up most affected with the loss of revenue and social and infrastructure programs. Venezuelan entrepreneurs started more heavily investing in their own country, and we see this in the movements of the Caracas Stock Exchange.”

According to Velutini, the privately held bourse currently has a market capitalization of some $7 billion, with an annual exchange volume of between $300 million and $400 million, mostly from Venezuelan investors.

Despite sanctions, some international corporations, including US ones, continue to operate in Venezuela. These include Chevron, under a special authorization from the US government to participate in a joint venture with PDVSA, the Venezuelan state oil company, and Italy’s Repsol.

The sanctions and the political standoff between Caracas and Washington have undoubtedly damaged the Venezuelan economy, Velutini allows.

That said, Venezuela’s GDP has grown for 17 straight quarters, the latest forecast by the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) indicates 9.3% growth in 2025 and 5% growth in 2026, he adds. Sources outside Venezuela are less enthusiastic: the UN estimates 5.8% growth this year, while the World Bank projects 2.3% in 2025, and 2.5% in 2026-2027. The IMF has a much grimmer outlook for 2026, projecting the country’s economy to shrink by 5.5%.

Brazil

Latin America’s largest economy and the world’s tenth largest is in a political as well as a trade-based face-off with the US. The Trump administration has been unwilling to negotiate down its 50% tariff on Brazilian goods unless the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva drops charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, now convicted by the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court (STF) to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.

Brazilian businesses are struggling to adapt to the new tariffs; China has surpassed the US as the biggest importer of Brazilian goods, while the US sank to the second-largest importer.

Daniel Teles
Daniel Teles, a partner at Valor Investimentos

“Most meat exports, coffee (Brazil is the world’s largest world exporter of the beans), semi-finished steel products, marble and granite, are affected,” says Daniel Teles, a partner at Valor Investimentos, who works in partnership with Brazilian investment house XP. “Orange juice is one example with detrimental effects on both countries. The US does not produce enough to supply the local market, and the tariffs on their largest exporter will inflate prices for US consumers.”

The principal challenges are lack of clarity going forward along with possible reciprocal tariffs and increased logistic costs.”The US strategy is clear,” says Teles. “They want to reindustrialize the country, increase growth through both local employment and taxation, and curb activity by countries still trading with Russia and other rivals.”

As Brazil scrambles to respond, its trading patterns are being significantly altered.

“Despite the first negative effects, we already see some positive market responses,” Teles says, “such as efforts to redesign logistic flows and a frantic search for new markets, along with expanded trade to current secondary markets. China had already overtaken the US as Brazil’s largest trading partner. This should now increase over time because of US barriers. Kazakhstan, the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, including Saudi Arabia, the EU, and Egypt have untapped potential, too.”

Other Latin countries face similar uncertainties, but not as severe. Mexico has a plant structure similar to Brazil’s but is less affected by the new tariff levels. Argentina has a dollarized economy, helping it absorb the new rates. Uruguay and Paraguay attract foreign direct investment both in the form of companies and wealthy individuals trying to escape heavier taxation elsewhere and, thus, are not as affected by US tariffs as its neighbors.

“In the short term,” Teles predicts, “much of the current uncertainties, including the diplomatic tensions and the risk of further sanctions and tariffs, should remain.” Nevertheless, the Brazilian stock exchange reached an alltime high on September 8, the economy is growing, and official interest rates in Brazil remains at 15%, low enough to attract investment.

Paulo Oliveira, CFO of Formosa Supermercados, which operates grocery and convenience stores, says, “What we see is companies affected by the tariffs absorbing the first impact and lowering their profits, but also trying to sell extra production within the Brazilian market, leading to price drops in coffee, meat products, and several vegetables.”

There will be “significant losses” in prepared containers not yet shipped to the US, Oliveira says, adding that an average of 2,000 containers per week “will now need to find new buyers. Producers of mango and grape from the northeastern part of Brazil, who had the US as their primary market, suffered significant losses and are having to rethink the sales of the current harvest and how they will manage the next cycle.”

Peru

Compared to most Latin American economies, Peru remains stable, with the key interest rate fixed at 4.5% and inflation not expected to surpass 1.7% this year. Most domestic output is centered in services, agricultural products, and mining commodities, especially refined copper, gold, and silver, as well as textiles.

The new US tariff rates mostly affect exports of blueberries, grapes, avocados, and textiles, according to Luis Pretel, senior auditing partner for financial products and commodities at Deloitte Touche & Tomatsu in Peru.

“The solution,” he says, “has been to diversify markets focusing on China, which is already a major player in Peru, as well as searching for new markets in Latin America. Thanks to the mega-port of Chancay, operated by China and inaugurated last year, exports to Asia have become simpler for the country.”

Peruvian companies are redesigning and improving their logistics processes, he notes, introducing digitalization, robotization, and AI, and crafting new cooperative and international agreements.

“Luckily, refined copper has been on the list of exemptions of US tariffs,” he adds, “and that industry is not affected by the current measures while gold and silver are stable in the international markets.”

That said, the government has lowered its GDP growth prediction for the year from 4.1% to 3.5%, anticipating diminished economic output and investments.

Pretel remains guardedly optimistic, however: “Ultimately, this will result in better logistic flows, new market openings, and Peru adapting through new strategies and a fully independent central bank, which will mitigate the political uncertainties and maintain local economic stability.”

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Nvidia shares jump on Blackwell chip talk ahead of Trump-Xi meeting

Published on 29/10/2025 – 11:09 GMT+1
Updated
11:11

Nvidia shares continued their dramatic rise this week as investors banked on an easing of semiconductor trade restrictions between the US and China.

Ahead of a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, US President Donald Trump said he planned to discuss Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell artificial intelligence chip with Xi.

“We’ll be speaking about Blackwell, it’s the super duper chip,” he told reporters on Wednesday.

The president didn’t elaborate on specific policy aims, although he said he was “very optimistic” about the meeting with his Chinese counterpart.

By around 11:00 CET, Nvidia shares had jumped over 3% in pre-market trading, bringing the firm closer to a $5 trillion market capitalisation.

Semiconductors have been a key point of contention between the US and China as both nations seek to lead on advanced technologies such as AI.

The tiny chips, used to power a range of electronic devices from smartphones to medical equipment, are essential to this ambition. Since 2022, the US has therefore restricted Nvidia’s sales of advanced chips to China for national security reasons.

Trump has flip-flopped on export controls since his arrival in the White House, first restricting and then approving sales of Nvidia’s H20 AI chip to China. Nvidia designed the H20 specifically for the Chinese market to comply with Biden-era export curbs, although the Trump administration previously said it was concerned the tech could be used for military purposes.

With regard to the Blackwell processor, Trump suggested months ago that he would consider allowing Nvidia to export a downgraded version of the chip to China.

Progress on such a proposal would come as a relief to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who has long criticised US restrictions. Huang has notably argued that such curbs are boosting China’s AI capabilities as the Chinese market is forced to become less reliant on US products.

It seems that such logic is already understood in Beijing, even as the US softens its stance. After Washington gave the green light to H20 exports, China’s regulator banned the country’s biggest tech companies from buying Nvidia’s artificial intelligence chips.

“The president has licensed us to ship to China, but China has blocked us from being able to ship to China,” Huang said at a Nvidia event this week in Washington. “They’ve made it very clear that they don’t want Nvidia to be there right now.”

In a document released by Beijing on Tuesday, the Communist party reiterated the importance of self-sufficiency, calling for “extraordinary measures” to achieve “decisive breakthroughs” in technologies such as semiconductors.

“The most important factor in promoting high-quality development is to accelerate high-level scientific and technological self-reliance,” Xi said in a speech released by state news agency Xinhua.

While it’s possible that Chinese restrictions on Nvidia chips could be a long-lasting policy, experts have suggested that the move may be a bargaining chip in trade negotiations with Washington.

Such policy U-turns are creating uncertainty for investors despite the fact that Nvidia shares have risen roughly 50% this year, driven higher by AI ambitions.

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Apple surpasses $4tn market capitalisation after latest iPhone success

Published on 28/10/2025 – 16:58 GMT+1
Updated
16:59

Apple’s stock reached new heights on Tuesday, trading above $269 a share and pushing the company’s market capitalisation to a record $4 trillion (€3.4tr). That followed stronger-than-expected demand for its latest iPhone 17.

The Cupertino-based technology giant therefore joins the elite club with Nvidia and Microsoft, which both surpassed the same valuation earlier this year.

Nvidia, the semiconductor powerhouse, became the first company in history to hit the $4tn milestone in July 2025. News of soaring AI investments and the firm’s strong profit outlook have continued to lift its share price since then, now approaching $4.7tn (€4tn).

The so-called Magnificent Seven, the seven largest publicly traded technology companies in the world, have been cashing in on the AI boom this year, with tech share prices rising accordingly. Since January, Apple shares are up more than 18%, Nvidia’s nearly 40%, and Microsoft’s close to 30%.

However, Apple has mostly stayed out of the race to invest billions in AI projects. Current market enthusiasm for the iPhone maker’s stock instead stems from the successful launch of its updated iPhone range, along with signs of easing trade and tariff pressures.

According to Counterpoint Research, the iPhone 17 series has outsold the iPhone 16 range by 14% during its first ten days on sale in China and the United States.

Five members of the Magnificent Seven, Alphabet, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, are reporting earnings this week. They will need to demonstrate strong growth and justify the massive spending currently underway in artificial intelligence, amid growing concerns that the sector may be forming a bubble reminiscent of the dot-com boom that burst in 2000.

According to Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade:”Markets move on leadership, and right now, the leadership of Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Apple is inseparable from the risk appetite of investors worldwide.”

She noted that more than 40% of S&P 500 gains this year have come via these giants.

“But with that concentration comes fragility,” she added, saying that even as revenues climb, the commentary provided by executives “will critically frame how far and how confidently the market can chase the AI story into 2026”.

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Promoting Cross-Border Connectivity In An Era Of Payments Fragmentation

A host of enhancements to cross-border payments are promising to enrich the global payments landscape. But implementing change within this complex industry isn’t straightforward.

In today’s instant, interconnected world, a crucial juncture has been reached in cross-border payments. Businesses and consumers – increasingly frustrated with inadequate, inefficient legacy international payment processes – are demanding fast, transparent and low-cost services from their providers. And the need for the industry to deliver is becoming ever-more pressing.

Initiatives are progressing at pace to help facilitate the move to seamless, 24/7 real-time global payments. The aim is to effectively replicate the same client experience that has become easily accessible in the domestic payments space. But change of this scale comes with challenges, and a by-product of the race to deliver real-time cross-border payments is a landscape inundated with different concepts and services, with fragmentation exacerbated by individual countries’ unique sets of payments rules and regulations.

Internationally, initiatives such as the G20 Roadmap for Enhancing Cross-Border Payments, which sets out quantitative targets to help make cross-border payments cheaper, faster, more transparent and accessible by 2027, have catalysed industry-wide efforts to promote greater standardization, legal and regulatory harmonization and payment system interoperability1. Certainly, as the industry edges closer to enhanced cross-border payments, there must be a focus not only on enablement, but standardization to tackle the fragmentation head-on, while also ensuring security and client satisfaction are maximized.

The challenging world of cross-border payments

Moving funds internationally is a complex undertaking, involving multiple parties, navigating time zones and adhering to regulatory requirements of each jurisdiction. This makes the process slow and convoluted, with high costs for both sender and receiver, and a lack of transparency regarding payment status and the associated fees. Given this, it is unsurprising that global payments have become a pain point for clients – and indeed their banking partners. Financial institutions (FIs) are only too aware of the impact of legacy processes on client service, and the very real need to implement enhanced processes to get global payments up to speed – literally – with the demands of the 21st century.

As banks resolve to deliver cutting-edge cross-border payments, they face legacy platform challenges, a lack of real-time infrastructure, and innovation hobbled by regulatory constraints. Against this backdrop, banks must also contend with an increasingly competitive landscape. Inventive, nimble non-bank players with a global presence have thrown their hats into the cross-border payments ring to deliver non-traditional approaches to solve the high cost and obscurity problem. By creating alternative payment networks, fintechs are providing a user experience that many banks are currently unable to match when it comes to speed, transparency and cost.

As FIs seek to overcome these obstacles and provide clients with flexible, instant cross-border payments, aligning with the pillars of the G20 Roadmap is essential for supporting a uniform global payments ecosystem and enabling banks to progress effectively towards the cross-border end goal. Designed to promote faster acceleration of global instant payments, it is invaluable to helping the banking industry most effectively chart a path to a coherent, consistent future.

Fusing the old and the new: combining legacy low-value rails with instant clearing

A key approach the industry is adopting will enhance existing infrastructure, with an emphasis on improving speed and visibility. Banks are readily implementing new industry initiatives – such as those provided by Swift – and other new technologies and processes to meet the needs of their global clients.

For example, by standardizing correspondent banking payment reporting under uniform rules, Swift gpi provides real-time, end-to-end tracking and transparency for cross-border payments. This has subsequently contributed to reduced overall end-to-end processing times, and therefore a better service for clients. Building on the success of Swift gpi, Swift Go standardizes correspondent banking relationships under uniform service level agreements. This enables similar capabilities for the low-value payment space – facilitating more efficient delivery channels such as ACH and instant payments, rather than funds transfers only.  

Complementing these developments, financial institutions are embracing interoperability, alternative payment rails, and smart foreign exchange (FX) services to reduce costs and enhance service delivery. BNY’s Swift to ACH initiative allows financial institutions to initiate cross-border payments via ISO 20022 pacs.008 messages and deliver them through the domestic US ACH rail – a lower-cost alternative to traditional USD wire transfers. Beneficiaries receive the full amount by the next day, while originators benefit from reduced transaction costs and the ability to provide a predictable client experience. This service is part of a suite of Low Value Payment resources that include offering FX conversions into a wide range of local currencies for delivery over low-cost payment rails – helping institutions lower costs and stay competitive with fintech offerings. BNY’s extensive correspondent banking network, along with strategic collaborations with fintechs and other service providers, empower us to broaden our offering to deliver a wider range of service beyond conventional financial services.

The combination of industry and proprietary initiatives are helping banks to expand their global payments value propositions and deliver the quality of service that clients are seeking – without the need for prohibitively expensive investment in new infrastructure. Banks are becoming truly competitive in today’s cross-border payments space.

Standing on solid ground: foundations for consistency

The next step is to enable interoperability and connectivity between different payments systems and platforms by aligning compliance and regulatory requirements across jurisdictions. This requires governments, network operators, banks, and industry bodies to move in the same direction, adopt common standards, and create uniform processes for exception management. Encouragingly, progress is already underway across several regions.

This is being addressed in Europe through the EPC’s One-Leg Out Instant Credit Transfer (OCT Inst) scheme, which enables payment service providers (PSPs) to leverage existing Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA) payment rails – including procedures, features, and standards – to facilitate cross-border payments that have one euro leg inside and one leg outside SEPA. For example, in November 2024 EBA CLEARING went live with an OCT Inst Service for RT1, its pan-European, real-time payment processing system for instant credit transfers2.

A similar approach is being adopted in other markets to enable cross-border interoperability using existing domestic rails. One notable example is BNY’s partnership with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Through our correspondent banking relationship, BNY clients can now send real-time payments to Australia 24/7, 365 days a year. This has been made possible by a new feature within the New Payments Platform (NPP), Australia’s real-time payments system. The International Payments Service (IPS) allows the Australian dollar component of inbound cross-border payments to be processed instantly. Previously, international transactions could only be settled via traditional funds transfers. Now, CBA can settle and clear payments on BNY’s behalf 24/7, with beneficiaries able to access funds in as little as 60 seconds – regardless of the sender’s location. With a network of over 2,000 correspondent banks across the globe, BNY is replicating this process with partner banks in other countries as other jurisdictions adopt an international framework within their instant payment schemes.

Elsewhere, the US-Mexico-Canada agreement (USMCA) has been established to enhance cross-border payments between the three countries. As part of the strategy, input from fintechs is being encouraged to share skillsets and develop optimized processes.

Certainly, fintechs and emerging technologies have a role to play in shaping global payments. Blockchain-based services for continuous settlement on a single ledger are emerging as alternatives to correspondent banking. Several markets are increasingly selecting digital wallets as a preferred service option.

Combined, these infrastructure developments may allow global payments to occur at any time, without being limited by business hours, time zones, or working days. This could result in greater cash flow visibility, more efficient supplier management, and improved liquidity control for businesses. Overall, real-time payments have increased flexibility in managing liquidity.

Piecing together the payments puzzle

While the industry unites to create a more standardized environment there will, however, inevitably continue to be different schemes in different markets, all with their own unique models, rules and Service Level Agreements. Banks should consider their target markets and integration with relevant initiatives to effectively meet clients’ international payment needs.

Banks then must provide a one-stop shop for global payments that allows clients to move money fast, anywhere, and anytime with ease. Indeed, with complexity and fragmentation rife, it is the ability to offer a simple, effective experience that will provide the greatest value.

At the same time, the industry must work towards integrating common values and infrastructure within initiatives such as ‘one-leg-out’ settlement, digital wallets and correspondent banking models, to enable the global payments ecosystem as a whole to function seamlessly. In this respect, the G20 Roadmap should be regarded almost as a North Star, guiding the industry towards alignment by following its principles. Doing so will help to instil a common infrastructure framework, centered on standardized rules and principles around 24/7 availability, transparency, finality, fraud prevention, and a common messaging standard.

While fragmentation continues to exist within cross-border infrastructure, building solid foundations and promoting collaboration will champion future solidarity, manage markets holistically for a truly global solution, and map the path for future connectivity.

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Why is China restricting rare earth exports and how will the EU respond?

Global tensions are escalating over rare earth minerals after China applied severe export controls on critical minerals required to manufacture almost everything – from cars to weapons. The move has also sparked concerns about the global supply chain.

Strategic meetings will be held between European Union officials and Chinese representatives, starting with a videoconference Monday, to be followed by a meeting in Brussels the following day.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump will meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Thursday in South Korea, with financial markets attentive to whether the world’s two largest economic powers can bury the hatchet in their trade war.

At the heart of the dispute is China’s 9 October decision to restrict exports of rare earth elements. While these controls were initially a response to US tariffs, the EU has become collateral damage in the dispute and is considering ways to respond.

Why is China restricting rare earth exports?

Tensions first emerged between the US and China after Donald Trump returned to the White House and carried through an aggressive tariff policy – which the administration argues is needed to narrow a growing trade deficit – on allies and rivals alike.

On 2 April 2025 — coinciding with what Trump defined as US’ “Liberation Day” — Washington announced a 34% tariff on Chinese goods imported into the country, which, added to the existing 20%, brought total duties to 54%.

The trade war escalated after China responded with counter-tariffs, which surpassed the 100% threshold, making trade between the two practically impossible. Beyond the tariffs, to hit back, China looked to weaponise its monopoly over rare earth elements, imposing additional export restrictions on 4 April that have since remained in place.

Rare earths are a group of 17 elements used across the defence, electric vehicle, energy and electronics industries.

The world, including the EU, is heavily dependent on China, as the country controls 60% of global production and 90% of their refining, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).

After a short truce, the dispute flared up again in September, and on 9 October 2025, China decided to extend its control over rare earth elements from seven to 12. The announcement was seen as China building leverage over the United States. The meeting between the two sides this week is crucial in dictating the path forward.

Meanwhile, the EU is caught between the two. While these restrictions aimed mostly at the US, it has also impacted the European industry. The controls take the form of licenses that are difficult to obtain, with European companies bearing the brunt, as European Commisisioner for Trade Maroš Šefčovič has repeatedly pointed out.

How is the EU responding?

In a speech over the weekend, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, said the Union is prepared to use all the tools at its disposal to combat what some European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, have described as economic coercion from China.

The remarks from the Commission president alluded to what is known as the anti-coercion instrument – designed with China in mind but never used.

The ACI, adopted in 2023, would allow the EU hit back at a third country by imposing tariffs or even restricting access to public procurement, licenses, or intellectual property rights.

“In the short term, we are focusing on finding solutions with our Chinese counterparts,” Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said on Saturday, warning, however, “But we are ready to use all of the instruments in our toolbox to respond if needed.”

European Council President António Costa met on Monday with Chinese Premier Li Qiang on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur.

“I shared my strong concern about China’s expanding export controls on critical raw materials and related goods and technologies,” Costa said after the meeting, adding: “I urged him to restore as soon as possible fluid, reliable and predictable supply chains.”

Yet, tensions persist.

A planned meeting between Šefčovič and his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao was cancelled and replaced by high-level talks between Chinese and European experts, a Commission spokesperson has confirmed. A video conference took place on Monday, and Chinese officials are set to arrive in Brussels for a meeting on Thursday.

While Brussels insists it wants to achieve a constructive solution without escalating, the Commission is pursuing a “de-risking” strategy to reduce its dependence on Chinese minerals. In addition, Germany and France have also suggested they would support stronger trade measures if a comprehensive solution cannot be found.

On Saturday, Von der Leyen announced a new plan – RESourceEU – exploring joint purchasing and stockpiling of rare earth, as well as “strategic” projects for the production and processing of critical raw materials here in Europe.

The EU also hopes to diversify its suppliers worldwide.

“We will speed up work on critical raw materials partnerships with countries like Ukraine and Australia, Canada, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Chile or Greenland,” von der Leyen said.

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Markets prepare for key rate decisions while tracking US-China trade talks

Global markets were buoyed on Monday morning by expectations of another Fed rate cut and growing optimism that the US and China are moving closer to a trade deal, following comments from President Donald Trump.

The optimism wiped out gains in safe-haven assets such as gold futures and boosted stock exchanges across the globe.

Yet, leading European benchmark indexes opened mostly flat, except for Milan’s FTSE MIB, which was up by 0.61%. Madrid IBEX 35 also gained 0.37% by around 11:00 CEST.

At the same time, European benchmark STOXX 600, as well as the FTSE 100 in London, remained nearly flat. The DAX in Frankfurt gained 0.15% while Paris’ CAC 40 lost less than 0.1%. This came after credit rating agency Moody’s changed France’s outlook from stable to negative on Friday.

Investors in Europe are closely watching for signs of economic health, with one of the strongest indicators — the first reading of the eurozone’s third-quarter GDP — due on Thursday.

On the same day, the European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to hold its monetary policy meeting. Given that inflation in the bloc has remained around the bank’s 2% target, the ECB is expected to hold interest rates steady this week for its third straight meeting. The key deposit rate has been at 2% since June.

US-China relations

Across the globe on Monday, US futures were mostly up in pre-market trading. This came as Asian shares rallied too, with Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 topping 50,000 for the first time.

Later this week, the US President has a scheduled meeting with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum (known as APEC), to discuss the trade deal between the world’s two strongest economies.

US and Chinese officials confirmed on Sunday that they had reached an initial consensus for Trump and President Xi Jinping to finalise during a meeting later in the week.

“I have a lot of respect for President Xi,” Trump told reporters after visiting Malaysia for a summit of Southeast Asian nations, where he reached preliminary trade agreements with Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam.

“I think we’re going to come away with a deal,” Trump said.

And investors see it as a strong signal. According to Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management: “This isn’t just photo-op diplomacy. Behind the showmanship, Washington and Beijing’s top trade lieutenants have quietly mapped out a framework that might, just might, keep the world’s two largest economies from tearing up the field again.”

The enthusiasm brought about a shift in risk-taking among investors, demonstrated by a fall in gold futures. The safe-haven asset’s continuous contract fell by almost 2% on Monday morning, as an ounce was priced at $4,055.50.

The euro and Japanese yen remained flat against the US dollar. One euro was traded at $1.1638, while the greenback cost ¥152.8070. The British pound climbed 0.26% against the US dollar, and the rate was at $1.3345.

Crude oil prices fell after European markets opened, with both benchmarks trading nearly 1% lower. The US benchmark WTI crude’s price was $61.06 a barrel, and Brent was at $65.47.

In other dealings, leading cryptocurrencies were up. CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index (XBX) gained 4.86% and climbed to $115,395.34. Ethereum cost $4,171.84, up by 4.82% on Monday morning in Europe.

Another Fed rate cut on the cards, coupled with Big Tech reports

Wall Street hit record highs on Friday, after lower-than-expected inflation numbers from the US fuelled further hope that the Federal Reserve is about to cut interest rates further this Wednesday.

The data on inflation was encouraging because it could mean less pain for lower- and middle-income households struggling with still-high increases in prices. Even more importantly for Wall Street, it could also clear the way for the Federal Reserve to keep cutting interest rates in hopes of giving a boost to the slowing job market.

The Fed just cut its main interest rate last month for the first time this year, but it’s been hesitant to promise more relief because lower rates can make inflation worse, beyond boosting the economy and prices for investments.

Meanwhile, a flood of big tech companies’ earnings is on its way this week, with Microsoft, Meta and Google-parent Alphabet reporting on Wednesday. Apple and Amazon’s numbers are due to be released on Thursday.

Better-than-expected profits could fuel hopes for steady growth in the US. Information is scarce about the current state of the world’s biggest economy due to the prolonged government shutdown.

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AI, Cyber Risk, and Insurance: Protecting Multinationals in 2025

The technology adds as many problems as it solves.

Artificial intelligence can be both a curse and a savior for corporate executives intent on protecting sensitive business and customer data from the onslaught of cyber risks bombarding today’s business world.

AI systems can help multinationals shield themselves against attacks, offering stronger capabilities to assess threats and automate company defenses, while improving the speed of post-breach responses. Yet, AI also lowers the barrier for attackers, giving bad actors without high-tech expertise the ability to launch sophisticated assaults. “AI is a double-edged sword,” says Peter L. Miller, president and chief executive officer of The Institutes, a not-for-profit in Malvern, Pennsylvania, that operates in the risk management and insurance area. “It is accelerating market innovation, but it’s also a force multiplier for cyberrisk at an unprecedented scale.”

Darren L. Pain, director of research at the Geneva Association, a Zurich-based think tank for the global insurance industry, adds that malicious actors can weaponize and poison AI models used by companies, which raises concerns about model accuracy and outcomes. Hackers can use AI tools to create convincing phishing emails, fake websites and even deepfake videos to inject malicious prompts or codes, he says. “This allows cybercriminals to craft personalized, realistic messages and methods that bypass traditional detection mechanisms,” Pain says.

That means managing AI risk has become a top issue for corporate boards. “Large organizations continue to purchase cyber coverage, focusing on catastrophic risk, as cyber is now increasingly viewed by their boards as an operational risk, on par with weather and political unrest,” says Bob Parisi, head of cyber solutions – North America, Munich Re Facultative & Corporate.

As a result, the cyber insurance market has grown to meet emerging AI risks, as well as the data breaches and IT outages that accompany the digitalization of business and society. According to the Geneva Association, global premiums for cyber insurance increased tenfold, to $15 billion, in the decade ending in 2023, up from $1.5 billion in 2013. Munich Re expects global gross cyber premiums to reach $16.3 billion by 2025, as premiums continue to grow and more companies adopt detailed coverage in the years to come. The German-based reinsurer expects average annual growth rates of 10% until 2030.

Although the use of cyber insurance is relatively stable among large multinationals, especially those domiciled in the United States, a 2024 survey of risk managers conducted by the risk brokerage firm Aon reveals a significant degree of underinsurance in cyber coverage. The results showed that less than 20% are carrying cyber coverage, compared to 60% with property insurance. “That’s despite cyber being assessed as having a higher probability and severity of loss than property,” says Rory Egan, head of cyber & analytics within the Global ReSpeciality business of Aon’s Reinsurance Solutions unit in London.


“Cyber rates can change quickly in response to new loss trends that may emerge.”

Rory Egan, Aon Reinsurance Solutions


Parisi says today’s cyber insurance coverage is exponentially broader than the product first offered 25 years ago. Coverage terms have become more consistent in recent years as insurers have adopted more standardized terminology. “However, that is not to say that the market is so settled as to fail to respond to new or expanding risks like AI and quantum computing or the resurgence of privacy perils, stemming from biometrics and an active regulatory environment,” he adds.

According to the Insurance Information Institute (Triple-I), an insurance trade association, insurers are meeting policyholders’ needs by adding clearer language around AI-related exposures and tightening or clarifying exclusions and conditions for state-sponsored/nation-state attacks and war/hostile acts. Insurers are also changing how business-interruption losses are measured after cyberattacks. Availability and limits have generally improved even as insurance underwriters demand stronger controls and carve out, or clarify, the exposures deemed ambiguous. Yet the typical coverage components remain: Firstparty cover for the policyholder can include compensation for forensics, data restoration, business interruption, ransomware payments, and crisis public relations. Third-party coverage helps compensate insureds for the costs associated with notifying customers of privacy breaches; regulatory defense; fines where they are insurable; media liability and network security liability.

Gerald Glombicki, a senior director in Fitch Ratings’ insurance group in Chicago, agrees that cyber coverage is constantly responding to evolving threats. “Cyber is a very bespoke product line,” says Glombicki. “No two policies are alike within the same industry, and if comparing policies in two different industries, there are often night and day differences.”

Yet not all sectors face cyber risks—and any subsequent need for coverage—equally. Critical energy and infrastructure sites operated by governments face the greatest exposure as outages or delays in service “can impact not only quality of life but potentially life itself,” Glombicki says. Sectors that are more lucrative for the hacker, such as financial institutions, are also a greater mark. The Triple-I cites the healthcare industry, with its patient data and critical services, and manufacturers using operational technology and industrial control systems to monitor and manage industrial processes and machinery, among other high-risk industries. “However, anything connected to the internet is a target,” Glombocki points out.

More Capacity And Stable Premiums

Fortunately for multinational buyers, insurers and reinsurers are not facing capacity constraints right now, therefore premiums are still declining after nearly tripling in 2021 and 2022. Egan says rate reductions of 10% year-over-year between 2022 and 2024 have slowed to 5% this year. Corporate buyers can expect flat to a slightly downward movement in premiums if current claim trends continue. “However, cyber rates can change quickly in response to new loss trends that may emerge,” he adds.

Geneva Association’s Pain says rates could also increase as coverages extend into other sectors and countries, “as firms’ and individuals’ awareness of cyber exposures rises and recognition of their degree of underinsurance grows.”

Pain points out that insurers rely on reinsurers to lay off peak cyber risks and avoid straining their own balance sheets. While estimates vary by year and country, Pain estimates primary insurers cede about 50% of their cyber premiums to reinsurers, far more than other lines of insurance. “And reinsurers remain cautious about the scale of losses that could result from a major cyber incident, including an accidental single point of failure,” says Pain, pointing to the CrowdStrike outage in July 2024 as an example. [On July 19, 2024, a single content update from CrowdStrike, a cybersecurity software company, caused more than 8.5 million systems to crash, including hundreds of Fortune 1000 companies. The incident was estimated to cost insurers around $1.5 billion in payouts, under business interruption, cyber and system failure coverages.]

“Any bunching of cyber incidents also raises the prospect that reinsurance might be unexpectedly triggered if a collection of cyber incidents were to happen within a single treaty period,” says Pain.

To meet the market’s anticipated demand for greater capacity, experts say alternative risk transfer mechanisms can play a role.

In a report issued in December 2024 by the Geneva Association, “Catalysing Cyber Risk Transfer to Capital Markets: Catastrophe Bonds and Beyond,” the authors examine how these risk transfer alternative mechanisms, including insurance-linked securities (ILS), such as cyber catastrophe bonds, can help spread these risks onto the financial markets.


“Cyber is a very bespoke product line. No two policies are alike within the same industry.”

Gerald Glombicki, Fitch Ratings


Although involvement in the cyber-ILS market is increasing, the authors note that investor appetite is hindered by uncertainties related to potential large-scale cyber exposures, variations in insurance policy language, and liquidity concerns. “The market’s growth will likely hinge on its ability to attract additional capital beyond the insurance and reinsurance sector to absorb potential unexpected losses,” Pain says.

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BlackLine CFO Patrick Villanova on Storytelling, AI, and Leadership

BlackLine Systems is an enterprise software company that develops cloud-based solutions for the finance function. Patrick Villanova took over as CFO in March after nearly 10 years at the Nasdaq-listed company. He was previously lead audit senior manager at PwC.

Global Finance: What has been the biggest challenge in your first six months as CFO?

Patrick Villanova: I had a long preparation at BlackLine, but nothing fully prepares you for being in the spotlight. The biggest shift has been delivering the message myself. I already had a solid handle on internal communication, and since taking over Financial Planning over a year ago, I understood budgeting and forecasting.

But starting [as CFO on] March 1, investor relations became a key focus: engaging with analysts, stakeholders, and the Board of Directors far more frequently. And, of course, I work much more closely with our CEOs [Therese Tucker and Owen Ryan]. I’ve always had a great relationship with them, but now we talk much more often. That’s been the biggest change in my role.

GF: How did you learn to tell BlackLine’s story?

Villanova: One of the hardest, but most critical, skills as CFO is storytelling: taking complex data and distilling it into a clear, impactful message. It’s a skill I’m constantly refining. I’ve been learning from seasoned CFOs, reading up on best practices, and even rethinking how I use tools like PowerPoint to make the message more digestible and meaningful.

GF: What is the most rewarding part of your role?

Villanova: I’ve always felt part of BlackLine’s success, but now I have my finger on the switch. Financial decisions ultimately stop with me, and that responsibility—leading a company with a bright future—is humbling and rewarding. There’s more pressure now: public speaking, making final calls, and being the one who others look to for direction. But with that pressure comes trust, and that trust is a privilege. I’m in this role because I’ve earned it, and I remind myself of that when the weight of the job sets in.

GF: How difficult is it to say no?

Villanova: It comes back to storytelling and messaging. I find myself saying no more often, but it’s important to explain why. People may not always agree, but understanding your perspective builds trust and brings them into your thought process: key aspects of leadership in this role.

GF: How is AI going to change your job?

Villanova: AI is a topic I’ve been passionate about long before stepping into this role; I see it as the third major technological shift in finance and accounting. First came the PC and Excel era in the 1980s. Then came cloud automation shortly after the turn of the century, which BlackLine helped pioneer. AI is the next leap, bringing deeper automation and less human intervention.

AI is already providing predictive financial insights and forecasts. It’s like adding a fifth person to the finance, planning, and analysis team who works faster and cheaper. In accounting, it’s still early-stage, handling simple, rule-based tasks like booking entries and performing reconciliations. But as it learns from more data and how accountants make decisions, its impact will grow.

Adoption will take time, especially in accounting, where accuracy must be absolute; 95% accurate is 100% wrong in our world. Once AI proves consistent and reliable, it will be exponentially more transformative than Excel once it proves itself as reliable in the industry.

GF: What do you suggest to someone who is seeking a CFO role?

Villanova: You’ll need more than just strong accounting and finance fundamentals and leadership skills; those are table stakes. The real differentiators will be data and AI expertise. As automation takes over traditional tasks like forecasting and modeling, the CFO role will demand a deep understanding of the underlying technology. In 10-15 years, the finance landscape will look completely different, and those who aren’t fluent in data and AI will struggle to keep up.

GF: What keeps you up at night?

Villanova: What keeps me up at night is disruption: the breakthrough I don’t see coming. I spend a lot of time studying AI, new technologies, and what smaller, agile companies are doing. I also worry about the skills we might lack when the next shift hits and always ask, What’s the next disruption, and are we ready for it?

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Bank Mandiri: Building the Digital Backbone of Indonesia’s Economy

As Indonesia rapidly embraces digital transformation, Bank Mandiri is positioning itself as the nation’s financial backbone—powering connections across corporates, MSMEs, and consumers. Through its digital wholesale super-platform, Kopra by Mandiri, the bank has created a unified ecosystem that handles nearly a third of Indonesia’s digital transactions.

How does Bank Mandiri contribute to advancing Indonesia’s digital economy?

Bank Mandiri plays a pivotal role in driving Indonesia’s digital economy. As the country’s largest wholesale bank, we have the scale and ecosystem to connect every layer of the value chain. Through Kopra by Mandiri, we serve over 30,000 wholesale clients, from large corporates to suppliers and distributors, helping them digitalize their business processes.

We’ve built a tightly connected ecosystem by integrating three main platforms: Kopra by Mandiri for corporates, Livin’ by Mandiri as a super app for individuals, and Livin’ Merchant for MSMEs. Together, they account for roughly 30% of Indonesia’s digital transaction market share, positioning Mandiri as a key catalyst for national digital transformation.

What innovation sets Bank Mandiri apart from competitors?

Last year, we completely revamped Kopra by Mandiri, enhancing its interface and user experience to global standards. Every feature was redesigned to simplify transactions while maintaining full functionality. The result is a platform that, in many ways, meets or exceeds leading international benchmarks.

Kopra now offers a comprehensive suite of cash management, trade finance, and value-chain solutions. Clients can process up to 50,000 transactions in one go, customize liquidity schemes via drag-and-drop tools, and receive AI-based bill reminders and personalized biller recommendations. On the trade side, Kopra supports digital issuance and QR-verified guarantees, with real-time tracking and full ERP integration for faster, more seamless operations.

How does Kopra Embedded Finance strengthen Mandiri’s open banking strategy?

Kopra Embedded Finance extends Mandiri’s digital reach, enabling more than 200 API-based services that connect directly with clients’ ERP systems. This allows treasury teams to manage payments, collections, and working capital securely—without leaving their internal platforms. Over 1,000 clients already leverage this capability, making Kopra a regional benchmark in open-banking treasury innovation.

How does Kopra create value across the value chain?

Kopra builds closed-loop ecosystems linking corporates, suppliers, retailers, and consumers. By integrating with Livin’ by Mandiri, businesses can send bills and receive payments instantly, while Livin’ Merchant supports MSME digitalization in sectors such as FMCG. This connected ecosystem enhances convenience, trust, and sustainable growth.

How is AI shaping Kopra’s evolution?

We’re embedding AI to forecast cash flows, personalize product recommendations, and detect anomalies. Soon, we’ll launch AI-powered trade document verification and transparency scoring to strengthen risk management. Ultimately, our mission is simple: use technology to simplify complexity and empower clients to grow smarter.

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Corporate Bond Market Booms After Fed Rate Cut in September

September was a banner month for US investment-grade bond issuance as companies rushed to borrow in a market benefiting from falling interest rates and tight risk premiums.

PitchBook tallied $56.4 billion in new bonds through the first week of September, with the month’s total swelling to over $172 billion. The surge followed the Federal Reserve’s rate cut of 25 basis points at its Sept. 16-17 meeting. Lower borrowing costs make it cheaper for companies to fund acquisitions or shore up corporate coffers. On Sept. 18 alone, at least nine corporate issuers raised nearly $15 billion in bonds.

“That was a busy day,” says Nick Elfner, co-head of research at Boston-based fixed income manager Breckinridge Capital Advisors. The investment-grade bond market has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to meet corporate funding needs, he adds, particularly when conditions are relatively stable and investor demand runs strong.

Take AT&T, for example. The telecom launched a four-part note-offering totaling $5 billion, with proceeds earmarked for general corporate purposes including refinancing maturing debt and funding pending acquisitions. BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Mizuho served as arrangers.

The same week, another group of global banks including Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and HSBC led an $18 billion bond deal for Oracle Corp.

The flurry of deals marks a shift from the previously cautious landscape, where uncertainty around interest rates, inflation, and President Donald Trump’s intermittent tariff announcements had restrained bond issuance and widened credit spreads.

Yet, US issuers are not the only ones capitalizing on cheaper debt. Reuters pulled data from LSEG to show that issuance of “Maple bonds” by foreign borrowers reached $16.32 billion as of Sept. 25, surpassing last year’s $16.28 billion and outpacing all of 2024, which totaled $13 billion. More aggressive Bank of Canada policy, along with low yields and tight risk premiums in both the US and Canada, is creating a favorable environment for companies to invest and expand while investors remain eager to provide capital.

“We think strong corporate bond issuance can continue,” Elfner says. Lower borrowing costs will also allow for corporates to refinance debt and, perhaps, undertake projects that may have been mothballed due to higher financing costs.

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BNB Governor Radev Explains Bulgaria’s Euro Area Accession

Dimitar Radev, governor of the Bulgarian National Bank, sees new opportunities ahead, along with continued fiscal prudence.

Global Finance: Bulgaria is set to join the euro in January, a significant achievement for the country and the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB). What will be the biggest changes for the economy and for the average citizen?

Dimitar Radev: Euro area accession is indeed a strategic milestone for Bulgaria. It crowns years of consistent effort—macroeconomic convergence, institutional development, and responsible policymaking. For the economy, it means deeper financial integration, enhanced investor confidence, and greater resilience to external shocks. For the average citizen, the most immediate effects will be practical: elimination of exchange rate risk with our main trading partners, lower transaction costs and more transparent pricing. In short, membership opens new opportunities for sustainable growth and prosperity. However, I must emphasize that these benefits will fully materialize only if we continue the disciplined policies that have brought us to this point.

GF: Do you have any concerns about membership?

Radev: There are always risks, but they do not stem from the euro itself—they arise from how we manage our responsibilities within the euro area. The real risk lies in domestic complacency: the mistaken belief that euro membership can substitute for sound national policies. It cannot. On the contrary, participation in the euro area increases the need for fiscal discipline, structural reforms, and strong institutions.

GF: You have stated that Bulgaria will not follow Greece’s example and use lower interest rates to go on a spending spree. How can this be avoided if companies and individuals want to do so?

Radev: Bulgaria has a strong tradition of fiscal prudence, and our low debt-to-GDP ratio—among the lowest in the EU—is proof of that. In recent years, this discipline has been tested by political instability and global volatility, leading to some loosening of the fiscal stance that must now be addressed. It is important to note that pressure for higher spending rarely comes from households or businesses—it originates from political decisions. The temptation to use lower interest rates as a rationale for expansive fiscal policy is well known. That is why Bulgaria’s established institutional framework, anchored in fiscal rules and prudent oversight, is essential. I am confident that fiscal discipline will remain our guiding principle.

GF: Membership in the euro means the BNB loses one of its primary monetary weapons, bank reserve ratio requirements, which are currently set at 12% with no interest paid on these reserves. Is there an alternative you can use?

Radev: Yes, the institutional context will change. Reserve requirements will be harmonized with eurosystem rules, and the BNB will no longer determine them unilaterally. But it’s important to recall that, under our currency board arrangement—apart from reserve requirements—our ability to conduct active monetary policy has already been very limited. From this perspective, euro area accession is not a loss of autonomy, but a strategic upgrade. For the first time, we will have a voice in shaping the euro area’s monetary policy through participation in the ECB’s decision-making bodies. This is a substantial institutional gain. At the same time, the BNB retains full control over macroprudential policy, which remains a powerful and flexible tool. Our participation in the Single Supervisory Mechanism further enhances coordination and oversight. This transition is not about losing instruments—it is about modernizing and embedding them within a stronger and more integrated policy framework.

GF: One of the BNB’s most important tasks is and will remain bank regulation. What impact might euro membership have on Bulgaria’s banks?

Radev: Since 2020, Bulgaria has been part of the Banking Union through the close cooperation framework with the ECB, covering both the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) and the Single Resolution Mechanism. Euro area membership will complete this integration. It brings higher standards of supervision, enhanced transparency, and greater consistency across the banking sector. Bulgarian banks are already subject to joint supervision under the SSM, and expectations—especially regarding capital strength and governance—will continue to rise. Some consolidation may follow, particularly among smaller or less competitive institutions. But this reflects broader market dynamics, not the euro itself. The BNB’s role remains unchanged: to safeguard financial stability, protect depositors, and promote the long-term soundness of the banking system. 

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What is the U.S. National Debt, and How Is It Paid?

The U.S. national debt just cleared a record $38 trillion—more than the annual output of China, Japan, Germany, the U.K., and India combined. That’s also roughly $111,000 per American.

The government will pay about $1.12 trillion in interest this fiscal year alone—roughly 13.5% of every federal dollar spent—then roll maturing debt into a steady stream of new Treasury securities.

While the debt has grown steadily over decades, warning lights are flashing brighter than ever: in May 2025, Moody’s stripped Washington of its last triple-A rating, bluntly warning that successive administrations have failed to rein in spiraling deficits.

It is the first time that all three major agencies—S&P (2011), Fitch (2023), and now Moody’s—rate America’s debt below the top tier. If investor confidence wavers, borrowing costs would climb just as trillions in Treasuries hit a “maturity wall” in 2026, testing demand on a scale never seen before.

Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. national debt is spiraling ever higher.
  • Roughly 80% of the debt consists of U.S. Treasurys owned by investors worldwide; the rest is intragovernmental IOUs owed to programs like Social Security.
  • Treasury bonds keep the government solvent via weekly auctions.
  • Interest payments alone already eat up 13.5% of all federal spending and topped $1 trillion in 2025.

How the Debt Is Structured—And Its Size

The government takes on debt to cover the gap between what it spends and what it collects in taxes—so it can keep funding programs, services, and investments even when current revenues fall short.

The U.S. national debt is a mix of government bonds that trade daily and non-marketable securities that sit exclusively on federal ledgers. This “intragovernmental” debt is money owed by one arm of the government to another—mostly for programs like Social Security and Medicare. 

Source: U.S. Treasury.

War spending drove early leaps in the debt, from $75 million after the Revolution to upwards of $3 billion after the Civil War. However, modern surges following the Great Recession pushed the debt-to-GDP ratio above 100% in 2013, and the COVID-19 stimulus to more than 120% today.

Unlike households, which must pay off their debts or risk bankruptcy, the federal government can roll debt indefinitely. Washington can raise taxes and, through the Fed, create more dollars. That is one reason U.S. Treasurys remain the closest thing to a “risk-free” asset and why Washington can keep borrowing year after year.

Source: Federal Reserve.

How the Government Pays Its Debt

In effect, the Treasury acts like a giant bond-fund manager: it pays out interest from current tax receipts, then issues fresh bonds to replace those that mature. This process involves regular auctions where Treasury securities are sold to investors, providing the government with the necessary funds to cover expenditures.

Foreign investors still hold about $9 trillion, led by Japan ($1.15 trillion), the U.K. ($899 billion), and China ($730 billion). Domestic pension funds and mutual funds own a growing share.

Debt Ceilings and Future Pressures

Despite mounting debt, Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times since 1960, using “extraordinary measures” to avoid default when the cap is reached.

There have, of course, been efforts to reduce the size of the debt, but these have often been undermined by political gridlock, unrealistic assumptions, or voter-friendly policies. Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) initially claimed $160+ billion in savings, but watchdogs say it simply shifted or delayed costs and cost taxpayers billions instead.

Meanwhile, annual net-interest outlays are expected to reach $1.8 trillion by 2035, as President Trump’s recent budget proposal, dubbed the “Big, Beautiful Bill,” is projected to add $3+ trillion to the national debt over the next decade, with further tax cuts increasing the burden by another $3.8 trillion.

The Bottom Line

The U.S. doesn’t so much “pay off” its national debt as manages it, relying on continued investor confidence, a flexible debt ceiling, and economic growth. Credit downgrades and rising costs, however. highlight growing risks—but the depth of Treasury markets and America’s unique fiscal standing still give policymakers room to act for now—if they choose to.

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Mexico and Canada Forge New Economic and Security Partnership

The Mexican and Canadian governments signed a milestone partnership agreement last month to promote and strengthen economic and security ties between the two nations.

Canada and Mexico are close economic partners aside from their place in the North American free-trade bloc; bilateral trade between the countries in 2024 totaled about $56 billion and Canada’s total foreign direct investment in Mexico in 2024 was around $46 billion. Canada was Mexico’s fifth largest trade partner and Mexico was Canada’s third largest as of the end of last year.

A key driver of the new accord is the status of the trilateral United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA), which is up for renegotiation next year. US President Donald Trump is already questioning its key elements in light of his criticisms that Mexico and Canada are taking a soft approach to cross-border illegal activity in the region, from immigration to drug trafficking, and what he regards as their anti-competitive trade and investment measures. The new bilateral partnership agreement aims to secure the support of economic integration, while the USMCA’s future is less certain.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum highlighted several new potential areas of collaboration. The Canadian leadership is interested in more diverse and resilient supply chains via Mexico, while the Mexican government wants to increase bilateral trade through direct access to Canadian ports, making the country less dependent on existing US maritime channels. Together, they are exploring joint production to target the growing Latin American and Asian markets, taking advantage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The new bilateral agreement also addresses key security components, such as enhancing security cooperation to combat synthetic opioid trafficking and social integration of migrant workers and related labor programs. Further meetings between Mexican and Canadian trade officials are expected in the coming months on a range of issues, from health to energy.

Meanwhile, public consultation has begun on the USMCA, which is scheduled for review next year. Public consultation is an integral part of the renewal process, enabling parties to better prepare for the upcoming negotiations. It also give the leadership on each side a better understanding of political trends and their views of key economic issues. 

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BHP Names First Female CEO Geraldine Slattery in Historic Move

BHP announced last month that Geraldine Slattery, president of its BHP Australia unit, will succeed Mike Henry as chief executive by mid-2026, making her the first female CEO in the mining and minerals giant’s 140-year history.

The implications extend well beyond that milestone.

Leadership changes in the global mining industry, an industry defined by scale, risk management, and geopolitical exposure, are often judged through the lens of operational continuity. Slattery’s appointment provides that stability. She has led BHP’s largest business unit, delivered productivity gains, and managed sensitive stakeholder relationships in Australia’s resource sector. Her elevation signals a board-driven commitment to maintaining execution strength while modernizing leadership composition.

From a governance perspective, however, BHP is setting a precedent.

For executives in resource-intensive and capital-heavy industries, Slattery’s taking the reins signals a new strategic view of succession. Embedding diversity in succession planning is becoming increasingly recognized as more than just a reputational play; it can strengthen the social license to operate, improve regulatory and community relationships, and enhance investor perception at a time when ESG considerations are influencing capital flows. Moreover, diverse leadership pipelines reduce concentration risk by broadening the talent base from which future strategies will be formulated.

Slattery will inherit complex challenges: demand volatility in commodities, scrutiny over decarbonization pathways, and rising geopolitical friction in critical mineral supply chains. Industry observers say that while her appointment as BHP’s first female CEO represents a milestone for gender diversity in mining, how she navigates a set of complex challenges will be closely watched as a test of whether inclusive leadership can deliver operational outperformance.

BHP’s move will not, on its own, transform the mining industry. However, for CEOs and CFOs across various sectors, it underscores a competitive reality: leadership diversity is now inextricably linked to corporate strategy, investor confidence, and the ability to adapt in a rapidly shifting global economy. 

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World’s Best Banks 2025 – Global Winners

Global Finance presents its 32nd annual list of the best banks worldwide.

If one word described the global economy in 2024, it would be “resilient.” Growth was up slightly, with global GDP growth hovering around 3.1%, while the pace of global inflation slowed to approximately 5.8% from 6.8% the previous year, according to the International Monetary Fund.

Although many thought a financial crisis was imminent, none materialized as businesses continued to focus on strengthening and diversifying their supply chains, implementing digitalization strategies, and responding to rising geopolitical tensions.

table visualization

In this environment, French banking giant Societe Generale took numerous crowns, winning as Global Finance’s World’s Best Bank, World’s Best Frontier Market Bank, World’s Best Transaction Bank, and World’s Best Supply Chain Provider—Bank awards.

Throughout 2024, the financial group generated €4.2 billion in group net income (up 69% from the previous year) on €26.8 billion in revenue (up 6.7%) through its 26 million clients worldwide while streamlining its core businesses and divesting others.

The Return Of The M&A

The bright spot for 2024 was the return of M&A.

“On the surface, it may appear difficult to remain sanguine after anticipating a full market resurgence for several years,” wrote Jake Henry and Mieke Van Oostende, senior partners at McKinsey, in the firm’s 2025 annual M&A report. “But many of the dynamics that stymied dealmaking for the past three years, including some that limited 2024 global deal value and volume to roughly the average of the past 20 years, are receding.”

According to data from WTW’s Quarterly Deal Performance Monitor, 15 megadeals worth more than $10 billion each closed last year, a 36% increase from 2023, and there were 162 deals valued between $1 billion and $10 billion, for a 21% increase. The number of deals totaling between $100 million and $1 billion grew approximately 15% over the same period.

Although not the “full throttle comeback that many dealmakers hoped for in 2024, performance improved (in some regions, significantly),” the McKinsey report noted. “Global dealmaking was curbed by a variety of pressures and delivered moderate returns, with deal value up 12% to $3.4 trillion.”

The year’s M&A deals were not evenly distributed geographically, however, according to WTW. North America saw the most deals closed, with 361, up 14% from the previous year. Europe notched 155 deals, up 32% from 2023. In the Asia-Pacific region, companies concluded 163 deals, representing a 5% increase.

Overall, Global Finance’s Best Banks led the way in helping to grow the M&A pipeline.

Along with the World’s Best Bank award, global honors this year include recognition as Best Corporate Bank, Best Consumer Bank, Best Banks Worldwide in Emerging and Frontier Markets, and Best Sub-Custodian Bank. All are being announced here for the first time.

Previously announced honors include Best Global Transaction Bank, Best Bank for Sustainable Finance, Best Islamic Financial Institution, Best Investment Bank, Best Cash Management Bank, Best Trade and Finance Providers, Supply Chain Provider—Bank, Best Foreign Exchange Provider, Best Private Bank, and Best SME Bank.


Methodology

The editors of Global Finance, with input from industry analysts, corporate executives, and technology experts, selected the global winners of the World’s Best Banks 2025 using information provided by entrants as well as independent research based on objective and subjective factors.

Entries are not required, but experience has shown that the information supplied in an entry can increase the chances of success. In many cases, entrants present details that may not be readily available to the editors.

Judges considered performance from January 1 to December 31, 2024. Global Finance applies a proprietary algorithm to narrow the list of contenders and assign a numerical score, with 100 signifying perfection. The algorithm weights a range of criteria for relative importance, including knowledge of the sector, market conditions and customer needs, financial strength and safety, strategic relationships and governance, capital investment and innovation, scope of global coverage, size and experience of staff, risk management, range of products and services, and use of technology. The panel tends to favor private-sector banks over government-owned institutions.

The winners in each category are those banks and providers that best serve the specialized needs of corporations engaged in global business.


Slawomir Krupa, CEO

World’s Best Bank 2025

In a year of economic uncertainty, persistent inflation and supply chain reorganization, Societe Generale stood head and shoulders above its global competition, earning the titles of World’s Best Bank and World’s Best Frontier Market Bank.

Its three core businesses—French Retail Banking; Global Banking and Investment Solutions; and Mobility, International Retail Banking, and Financial Solutions—generated €4.2 billion in group net income (up 69% from the previous year) on €26.8 billion in revenue (up 6.7%).

Throughout the year, Societe Generale combined strategic investments in cutting-edge technology, sustainability, and innovation with a drive to streamline core businesses while divesting non core areas.

The French banking giant has leveraged AI in approximately 420 use cases across its operations to enhance customer support via its Sobot chatbot and Elliot callbot, personalize advice for private banking clients using its Synoé platform, and numerous middle- and back-office operational, security, and risk management functions.

The bank surpassed its goal of contributing €300 billion to sustainable finance by 2025, a year ahead of schedule. It has since raised its target to €500 billion, comprising €400 billion in financing and advisory services and €100 billion in sustainable bonds, by 2030. Sustainable finance deals, including acting as the mandated lead arranger for a $1.2 billion green loan that enabled ReNew Power to develop a combined wind, solar, and battery storage infrastructure in its home market of India, have helped Societe Generale maintain a leading global role in this field.

Among the new offerings the bank debuted in 2024 were a joint venture with AllianceBernstein, dubbed Bernstein, which combines the two companies’ equity research, sales, and trading operations.

Societe Generale meanwhile strengthened its capital base by simplifying its business model, improving efficiency and increasing existing synergies through a series of strategic divestitures. It exited its private banking operations in the UK and Switzerland with the sales of SG Kleinwort Hambros and Societe Generale Private Banking Suisse and continued divestment of its African subsidiaries in Benin, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Morocco.

Despite these changes, Societe Generale remains the leading player in frontier markets through its Global Transaction Banking network, which spans more than 50 countries and offers a range of integrated services including managing cross-border payments, liquidity, and trade finance. Leveraging its expertise in sustainability, the bank has partnered with the International Finance Corporation to accelerate financing of energy transition projects in developing markets through its Solar Pack initiative. 


Javier Rodriguez Soler, BBVA
Javier Rodriguez Soler, Global Head of Sustainability, Corporate & Investment Banking

World’s Best Corporate Bank 2025

BBVA claims the title of World’s Best Corporate Bank for the third consecutive year, having expanding its market share and deal leadership during 2024. It led 86 deals across telecommunications, energy, infrastructure, consumer goods, and services for a total volume of €5.16 billion. Among these was the €6.6 billion underwriting of MasOrange, formed by the merger of the telecom companies Orange and MasMovil.

BBVA also reinforced its commitment to sustainable finance, leading the €383 million project financing of Repsol Renovables’ Gallo portfolio, a 777-megawatt solar and battery storage facility spanning Texas and New Mexico as well as the refinancing of the Monegros wind project in Aragón. Additionally, the bank directed €51.1 billion into sustainable financing throughout the year.

All told, BBVA’s Corporate & Investment Banking division earned some €5.8 billion in revenue in 2024, up 27% from the previous year, while increasing its net attributable profits by 30%.

Helping to fuel its growth has been the bank’s strategic investment in its infrastructure and technology partnerships. BBVA’s internal AI Factory has applied AI and machine learning to enhance customer experiences and streamline internal processes. 


CS Setty, Chairman, State Bank of India
Challa Sreenivasulu Setty, Chairman

World’s Best Consumer Bank 2025

Continued investment in digitalization, a growing global footprint, and innovative offerings earned the State Bank of India (SBI) its first World’s Best Consumer Bank award. Building on a history that dates back to 1806, SBI continues to enhance a menu of digital offerings that serve 132 million internet banking and 287 million mobile banking clients.

SBI reimagined its You Only Need One (YONO) banking and lifestyle mobile app in 2024 with its midyear announcement of YONO 2.0. The latest version enables users to initiate transactions at an SBI branch and complete them on the app, and vice versa, and features a more modular architecture for faster processing and transaction speeds. Other innovations include the debut of a tap-and-pay function in its BHIM SBI personal banking app, which leverages India’s Unified Payment Interface, as well as an end-to-end digital loan application for the bank’s Surya Ghar Loan scheme for the installation of rooftop solar collectors.

Despite its stress on digitalization, SBI also invested in 600 new branches across India to improve accessibility for underserved rural and semi-urban areas: more than fourfold the number of branches it opened the previous fiscal year. 


Jamie Dimon, Chairman and CEO

World’s Best Emerging Markets Bank 2025

One of the largest financial institutions globally, JPMorgan Chase (JPMC), wins the World’s Best Bank for Emerging Markets award for its broad set of offerings, continued focus on serving emerging markets, and overall expertise.

Although many of its competitors are pulling out of emerging markets, JPMC is expanding into them. It plans to enter new African markets or deepen its existing presence there “every couple of years or so,” Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon told Reuters last October. The bank set up a representative office in Kenya that month and new offices in Côte d’Ivoire later in the year.

JPMC had a strong 2024, raising more than $400 billion in emerging market debt, including on a rising number of debt-for-nature transactions that enable countries to repurchase existing debt on better terms and use the savings to benefit the environment. El Salvador utilized the structure to secure an approximately $1 billion loan from the bank, then used it to repurchase $1.03 billion in a tender offer. The savings were allocated to improve and protect the country’s Lempa River watershed.

Besides raising debt, JPMC’s advisory services were strengthened by the launch of a Center for Geopolitics, which provides expert analysis of geopolitical trends aimed at helping clients navigate the complexities of the global economy, manage risks, and identify new opportunities.

Emerging market clients also benefit from the bank’s global infrastructure and sizable investment in its technology platforms, JPMC says. Access to these cutting-edge systems gives clients a more efficient, secure, and convenient way to manage their finances and business operations. 


World’s Best Frontier Markets Bank 2025

Frontier markets are playing an increasingly important role in the global economy, as they offer significant growth, albeit with smaller capitalization and higher volatility. Banks serving frontier markets must provide a comprehensive blend of corporate and commercial banking services that go beyond lending and deposits to more complex offerings, such as trade finance, securities servicing and sustainable finance. French banking giant Societe Generale is a leader across the board, with its broad range of offerings, and has beaten out its competitors to win this year’s World’s Best Frontier Market Bank award.

The bank, with over 160 years of experience, boasts a global network spanning more than 50 countries and offers highly integrated solutions for trade finance, cross-border payments, and liquidity management.

Through increased investment in artificial intelligence and other technologies, the bank has automated numerous processes and digitized others. In securities servicing, the company has leveraged generative AI, smart workflows, and robust data management to provide an enhanced client experience for its corporate and institutional clients, resulting in a doubling of client recommendation rates and increased participation in satisfaction surveys.

Meanwhile, Societe Generale has made great leaps in sustainable finance. The bank has committed 300 billion euros to sustainable finance by 2024 and introduced a new target of 500 billion euros by 2030, with a focus on decarbonization in sectors with the highest carbon-intensive emissions. To further strengthen its position, the bank also launched its Sustainable Global Transaction Banking Framework, which enables businesses to assess and monitor the environmental and social impacts of their working capital, trade, and liquidity management activities.

Societe Generale also signed a collaboration framework agreement with the World Bank’s International Finance Corporation to accelerate sustainable finance through investments in clean energy, water, and other infrastructure projects, as well as in agribusiness and women entrepreneurs. 


World’s Best Transaction Bank 2025

Societe Generale excels at navigating the complexities of realtime payments, offering rigorous testing and dedicated IT support including client training. While clients expect similar functionalities for domestic and cross-border payments, Jean-François Mazure, head of Cash Clearing Services, notes that they struggle to differentiate. Converging both payment types, which hinges on interlinking financial market infrastructures, is critical, he argues.

Numerous market initiatives, including immediate cross-border payments (IXB) between the US and Europe, face significant hurdles, Mazure warns: “It is truly complex from a compliance and legal framework standpoint. So, for the moment, none of these initiatives has succeeded in scaling up.”

To interconnect real-time payment systems, he says, the most likely way forward is to adopt the “one leg out” (OLO) principle already in operation for transactions involving one bank inside the European Economic Area and one bank outside. But all parties will need to continue to align for interconnectivity to be achieved, he adds. OLO’s success hinges on compliance with ISO 20022 standards as well as resolving commercial and liability challenges across various schemes.


Mal Cullen, CEO

World’s Best Sub-custodian Bank 2025

CIBC Mellon continues to refine its comprehensive asset-servicing business model, emphasizing innovation, process efficiency, and client service. Jointly owned by Bank of New York Mellon and Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC Mellon leverages CIBC’s local knowledge in the Canadian market combined with BNY’s technology and global custody infrastructure to serve institutional clients in Canada and globally. The combination has yielded consistent growth; assets under administration recently surpassed C$3 trillion ($2.2 trillion).

Ongoing priorities focus on broadening customer relationships and services through continual investment in IT and partnerships with the fintech sector, aimed at providing greater levels of core service automation along with enhanced transaction transparency and execution efficiency. This includes better straight-through processing for a seamless and secure transmission of client data, investment in pre- and post-trade communication services for trade matching and routing, and tracking of the settlement lifecycle.

Project Fuel, an enterprise-wide data and innovation initiative, is focused on transforming the client experience by equipping customers with tools to manage and analyze data more effectively, improving transparency and accelerating decision-making.

CIBC Mellon continues to enhance its online reporting platform, NEXEN, which integrates data and predictive analytics to provide clients with faster, real-time cash position and activity reporting through an improved user interface. Digital assets are expanding in the market; the bank is collaborating with stakeholders in Canada and globally and with BNY’s digital-asset unit to develop offerings in this area. This involves bolstering its data analytics capabilities and digital infrastructure through enhanced customization, automation, and service flexibility with a view to assisting clients to launch new offerings including alternative-asset ETFs and cryptocurrency funds. 


Su Shan Tan, CEO

World’s Best Bank for Sustainable Finance 2025

DBS aims to green Asia’s economy by acting as an environmental-transition catalyst for anchor companies, mid-caps, and SMEs. The bank provides transition-related financing for these organizations at the corporate, project, and asset levels. Among its offerings are green, sustainability-linked, and social loans and bonds, along with carbon-market financing and other products.

Standout transactions in 2024 included a loan to LG Energy to construct a plant in Poland that manufactures batteries used in electric vehicles. A HK$3 billion (about $385.7 million) loan to the Hong Kong Housing Society will help create affordable residential projects. A S$300 million (about $224.2 million) bond will help Singaporean developer CapitaLand develop projects in alignment with green finance frameworks.

In addition, the bank develops analytical tools to track and analyze climate data and engages with industries—notably in the power, automotive, steel, shipping, and real estate sectors—and policymakers to chart paths to a healthier environment. 


Khaled Yousef AlShamlan, Group CEO

World’s Best Islamic Financial Institution 2025

Kuwait Finance House (KFH) is recognized as the World’s Best Islamic Financial Institution for strengthening its franchise in multiple markets, for financing innovation, and for its overall operating performance. KFH provides services to customers in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia through extensive distribution channels, with an increasing emphasis on digitalization. The bank has subsidiaries in Kuwait, Turkey, Egypt, Bahrain, Iraq, Malaysia, the UK, and Germany.

KFH has made significant strides toward digital transformation in risk management, adopting the latest advancements in AI, machine learning, and advanced analytics to enhance risk measurement and monitoring. Tam Digital Bank, KFH’s digital bank in Kuwait, recorded strong customer numbers and transaction growth in 2024.

The bank’s financial profile is noticeably sound; a successful capital management program yielded a capital adequacy ratio (CAR) of 19.9%, considerably exceeding regulatory requirements and promising to support growth in the coming years. Return on average assets is good at 1.8% and loan asset-quality metrics are robust. KFH’s Islamic banking products and services cover commercial, retail, and corporate banking as well as real estate, trade finance, project finance, asset management, and investments.


World’s Best Investment Bank 2025

Against the backdrop of thriving global stock markets and rising debt-finance activity, Bank of America (BofA) Securities’ global operations achieved an impressive 43% year-over-year jump in investment banking fees as of the fourth quarter of 2024.

The numbers were buoyed mainly by the bank’s three big areas of operations: North America, Latin America, and Europe, where the bank controlled a commanding 8.3%, 9%, and 4.4% of total investment banking fees, respectively. That boosted revenue for the full year to nearly $5.5 billion, according to Dealogic, representing around 6.2% of the global investment banking market.

BofA also scored big on M&A despite somewhat subdued activity in the field, serving as lead buy-side advisor on the $1.9 billion acquisition of Hawaiian Airlines by Alaska Air. The bank also acted as sole buy-side financial advisor on Keurig Dr Pepper’s $990 million acquisition of energy beverage company GHOST. 


Brian Moynihan, Chairman and CEO

World’s Best Bank for Cash Management 2025

Reflecting the demand for consistent global visibility and control, Bank of America saw the app version of its CashPro platform surpass $1 trillion in payment approvals in 2024. CashPro allows clients to manage treasury operations across multiple channels: online, app, APIs, and file-based interfaces.

“One thing that distinguishes CashPro is its global consistency,” says Tom Durkin, head of CashPro at BofA’s Global Payments Solutions, “so that when a company’s finance team has team members in different countries, they’ll all have access to the same tools, views, and processes. The advantages are obvious: better visibility and control and no additional financial outlays.”

Much of CashPro’s success is due to BofA’s close engagement with clients, Durkin notes, particularly those who participate in client board meetings.

“This dialogue is so important,” he says. “We do deep dives into our clients’ priorities and challenges, we present options for new functionality and discuss whether those innovations are going to solve their real-world issues.”

The bank’s strategic vision for CashPro “will always be to provide a best-in-class platform that is personalized, predictive, and proactive,” he adds. “One recent demonstration is how we’ve embedded CashPro into our clients’ own systems through the CashPro Network, a collaboration with third-party providers allowing quick, easy connection to the bank with little to no investment.” 


World’s Best Trade Finance Provider 2025

Offering global trade finance in 44 countries and more than 100 trade centers across more than 60 countries gives BNP Paribas a strong geographical foundation for its offering of seamless trade finance solutions across borders, supporting client growth throughout the entire trade cycle.

A broad range of traditional trade finance and working capital management solutions and substantial investment in technology, including web-based e-banking platforms like Connexis Guarantee, Connexis Trade, and Connexis Supply Chain, helps the French multinational support clients with complex international trade operations. Leveraging digital solutions, such as blockchain and AI, streamlines processes, improves efficiency, and enhances customer experience.

In 2022, BNP Paribas launched a program using AI to streamline the processing of trade finance documents and improve traceability for its clients. Since then, the bank has rolled the program out to 15 countries and processed 40,000 transactions.

“We have implemented AI technology to help classify, extract data, and automate controls. This is live today and being further expanded in terms of functionalities,” says Jean-François Denis, global head of Trade Solutions. “Bank guarantees also present the potential for AI usage, such as verifying guarantee clauses against acceptable clauses, policies, and guidelines. Anti-money laundering is yet another area where we have deployed AI.”


World’s Best Supply Chain Finance Provider – Bank 2025

The French banking giant introduced a new workflow product in 2024 that includes external data and better analyzes clients’ working capital needs. The new offerings include peer comparison of key receivables and payables financing elements.

On the sustainability front, Societe Generale offers an ESG version of its full range of solutions, including green or social-focused factoring, forfaiting, and sustainability-linked supply chain financing (SCF). The bank also offers a dedicated and simplified solution for retail clients and SMEs based on their ESG rating.

Finally, establishing connectivity to CRX Markets, the marketplace for working capital finance, has improved support for SocGen’s largest clients, helping to grow the bank’s SCF programs. 


World’s Best Global Foreign Exchange Bank 2025

Upon completing its megamerger with Credit Suisse in May 2024, UBS leveraged its already best-in-class corporate banking, foreign exchange (FX), and product offerings for a record-breaking year. Not only did its global operation more than double analysts’ expectations in the third quarter of 2024, booking a massive $1.4 billion in net income, but it did so with a significant contribution from its corporate banking division, which saw revenue jump by more than 8% year over year.

Those numbers received a massive boost from UBS’s thriving FX operation, which averaged over $125 billion in daily electronic FX trades, with more than 2,500 active global clients. The bank posted substantial growth across several geographies and currency pairs. Among the highlights: solid profitability growth in Middle Eastern and Northern African currencies and a massive 40% market-share increase in Scandinavian currencies. In Asia, UBS’s continued efforts to improve its already top-tier suite of electronic FX capabilities paid off handsomely in China and Singapore, where it has doubled down on its data center improvement efforts.

On the technology front, UBS further expanded the limits of the global FX market, hosting the world’s first intraday FX swap in a regulated venue in July. The bank recently launched its blockchain-based multicurrency payment solution, UBS Digital Cash, processed through its flagship FX Engine Room, enhancing its overall FX offering. 


World’s Best Private Bank 2025

For the fifth consecutive year, J.P. Morgan US Private Bank has excelled at adapting to shifting macroeconomic conditions, delivering best-in-breed results to its clients. Riding the phenomenal rebound in global investing built on improving monetary conditions and subsiding inflationary pressures, the bank saw client assets rise by 24% over the previous year, totaling more than $2.5 trillion under supervision.

Against this backdrop, revenues increased 18.5%, with pretax income showing an even more significant 36% boost year on year.

On the product side, J.P. Morgan made significant strides at integrating advanced AI tools, including JPMorgan Chase’s Connect Coach and the Chase Connect mobile app, into its award-winning product portfolio. These include risk analytics and portfolio management services that serve as a benchmark for many in the industry. Alongside these product advances, the bank added over 300 expert advisors to its team, helping it attract more than 5,400 new clients.


Roberto Sallouti, CEO

World’s Best SME Bank 2025

BTG Pactual Empresas boasts an SME lending portfolio that reached R$22.1 billion (approximately $3.9 billion) in the first quarter of 2024, its SME credit book growing 52% year on year. SME business now accounts for 12% of BTG Pactual’s total portfolio.

The bank attributes its SME growth in part to its digital capabilities. Its digital platform offers an integrated portfolio of SME products and services, providing access to the bank’s credit, guarantee, insurance, investments, foreign exchange, and derivatives products. Associated services accessible via the platform include creation of invoices payable by QR code; online invoicing; instant electronic bank transfers; open banking; payments to suppliers, tax authorities, and utilities; budgeting and categorized spending services; and digital receipts. The platform offers more than 45 integrations, including Telegram and Google Workspace, along with a extensive range of productivity improvement products.

Speed is a crucial benefit. The platform enables BTG to disburse 95% of its loan funds in less than 10 minutes, the bank says, 16 times faster than its competitors.

Agriculture is a big part of the Brazilian economy, and BTG offers services tailored to the sector including credit lines for agricultural products (fertilizers, pesticides, seeds); equipment financing; and infrastructure financing for the construction of silos, warehouses, and other facilities.

Activities addressing ESG issues are also important to BTG. Of its loans to corporations and SMEs, 72% are subject to social, environmental, and climate-risk analysis, in line with international best practices. R$8.9 billion of its lending portfolio aligns with the bank’s sustainable financing framework.

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