Finance Desk, Author at Occasional Digest

MONEY

Could oil prices really reach $200 a barrel as claimed by Iran?

The global energy landscape is facing its most volatile period in decades following the US-Israeli strikes against Iran on 28 February that triggered a wider and potentially prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

What began as a targeted military operation has rapidly escalated into a direct confrontation with global economic implications.

Based on claims by Iranian state media and regional reports, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has ostensibly adopted a strategy of “energy blackmail” to leverage the international community into pressuring the US and Israel to cease its attacks.

The $200 per oil barrel threat was first articulated shortly after the conflict began.

On Sunday 1 March, a senior IRGC spokesperson warned that if “cowardly anti-human actions” continued, the world should prepare for a massive price surge, even as high as $200 per oil barrel.

This rhetoric has since become a central pillar of Tehran’s messaging.

As recently as this Wednesday, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, the spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters, told state media: “Get ready for the oil barrel to be at $200, because the oil price depends on the regional security which you have destabilised.”

Iran’s tactical disruption

The IRGC’s current strategy relies on “internationalising” the cost of the conflict.

By disrupting the flow of nearly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran aims to drag the global economy into the fray.

This is why the IRGC has targeted vessels from neutral nations, including ships sailing under Thai, Japanese and Marshall Islands flags, among others.

According to energy analysts, this disruption is designed to create domestic political pressure within Western nations, to in turn force the US and Israel to pull back on military action in exchange for energy stability.

By striking countries that have not attacked them directly, Tehran is signaling that no maritime trade is safe as long as the strikes on its soil continue.

The main vector of this strategy is precisely the disruption of energy markets, an element Iran can influence directly through its geographical advantage.

A history of oil price shocks

While $200 per barrel sounds astronomical, oil has approached similar levels in the past when adjusted for inflation.

The highest nominal price ever recorded was around $147 in 2008, driven by peak oil fears and rampant speculation just before the global financial crisis. When adjusted for 2026 inflation, that 2008 peak represents roughly $211 per barrel.

Previous major shocks, such as the 1973-74 Arab Oil Embargo and the 1979 Iranian Revolution, saw prices quadruple and double respectively from pre-crisis levels.

In 1980, prices hit a nominal peak of about $39.50, which would be approximately $160 in today’s terms.

However, the current crisis involves a total physical blockade of one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint, increasing the risk of a price “moonshot”.

Market response and reserves

At the time of writing, Brent crude is trading just above $100 per barrel, a sharp increase from the $60 range seen in mid-February before the Iran war began.

The International Energy Agency has attempted to stabilise the market by orchestrating the largest-ever coordinated release of strategic reserves, but the continuation of Iranian strikes agaisnt oil infrastructure and tankers has largely neutralised the effort.

With insurance providers cancelling war-risk coverage and shipping companies redirecting fleets, the market remains in a state of high anxiety.

If the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz persists, the $200 figure may shift from a political threat to an increasingly likely scenario.

In a recent report, Oxford Economics identified $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

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Vietnam’s New Wealth: How Techcombank is Shaping Private Banking

Mar 12, 2026 Finance Desk

Vietnam’s economy is undergoing a remarkable transformation, marked by rapid growth and the recent upgrade to “secondary emerging market” status by FTSE Russell. This shift is creating a new class of affluent and high-net-worth individuals, fueling unprecedented demand for sophisticated wealth management. At the forefront of this burgeoning industry is Techcombank, whose private banking arm, Techcombank Private, was recently named Best Private Bank in Vietnam for 2026 by Global Finance.

The award is more than a simple recognition; it’s a validation of a strategy designed for a new era of Vietnamese wealth. As international investors turn their attention to Vietnam, attracted by its dynamic market and stable growth, the country’s own entrepreneurs and established families are seeking financial partners who can navigate both local complexities and global opportunities. This is where the private banking landscape is being redrawn.

A Rapidly Maturing Wealth Management Landscape

Vietnam’s private banking industry is coming into its own as one of the most sophisticated and competitive markets in the region. Rapid wealth accumulation, driven by entrepreneurial success and significant generational wealth transfer, is fueling the sector’s evolution. Today’s affluent clients demand far more than basic investment services—they expect tailored strategies, global connectivity, and a partner who can support their ambitions at every stage.

“We are witnessing a pivotal moment in Vietnam’s economic story. Our clients are seeking a strategic partner who understands their journey. They are innovative founders and family leaders who require holistic solutions that cover wealth creation, preservation and legacy planning.”

Nguyen Van Linh, Deputy Chief Retail Banking Group at Techcombank Private.

This maturing market is shaped by a new generation of high-net-worth individuals who value seamless digital experiences paired with the kind of trusted, long-term relationships private banking is known for.

“The key is to combine global best practices with a deep understanding of the local context,” Van Linh explains. “Our clients’ ambitions are not confined by borders. Whether it’s planning for their children’s education overseas, exploring international investment opportunities or structuring their business for global expansion, we must provide world-class expertise right here in Vietnam.”

A Model Built on Expertise and Ecosystem

Techcombank Private’s leadership is underscored by its impressive market position, managing over VND 428 trillion in Assets Under Management and holding more than 50% market share in the affluent customer segment.

These numbers reflect a carefully constructed service model. At its core is the dedicated Private Client Relationship Manager (PCRM), an advisor trained to international standards who provides a single point of contact for a client’s diverse financial needs. Supported by a central Chief Investment Office (CIO) team, PCRMs deliver bespoke financial strategies, from intricate estate planning to dynamic portfolio management.

“Our advisory model is built on a foundation of trust and intellectual rigor,” says Van Linh. “We don’t just offer products—we co-create solutions. This involves a deep dive into a client’s personal and business aspirations to build a financial roadmap that is both resilient and aligned with their long-term vision.”

Clients gain access to a diverse portfolio of exclusive investment opportunities, including sophisticated products like ETFs, synthetic iTracker ETFs and personalized structured products. Crucially, they also benefit from privileged access to Techcombank’s integrated ecosystem. This network includes advisory and brokerage from TechcomSecurities, specialized protection solutions from Techcom Life Insurance, and unique access to premium real estate and corporate bond offerings from Vietnam’s leading developers and corporations.

Integrating Wealth and Lifestyle

A defining feature of modern private banking in Asia is the fusion of financial management with curated lifestyle experiences. Affluent clients today see wealth not just as a financial metric but as an enabler of a fulfilling life.

Techcombank Private has embedded this understanding into its service by creating a “Red Carpet Banking Experience.” This goes beyond preferential rates to offer tangible value in clients’ daily lives. The recently launched Techcombank Private lounges at Hanoi’s Noi Bai and Ho Chi Minh City’s Tan Son Nhat airports are a prime example—providing serene, exclusive spaces for clients on the move.

“We believe that true value is created when we can enhance our clients’ lives beyond their finances,” notes Van Linh. “Our 24/7 Global Concierge service, our exclusive cultural events, like the ‘Carmen’ opera, and our partnerships with luxury brands are all designed to give back our clients’ most valuable asset: their time.”

This philosophy extends to the Private Rewards Program, which turns everyday transactions into opportunities. Points can be redeemed for experiences in dining, travel and wellness. The program also features a unique family-sharing component, allowing family members to pool points for shared experiences, strengthening familial bonds and financial engagement across generations.

Nurturing the Next Generation

As Vietnam navigates its path to becoming a high-income nation, the concept of legacy is increasingly important. Recognizing this, Techcombank has committed to nurturing the next generation of leaders. The “Techcombank Education for Next Generation” program, developed in partnership with VinUni University, is a pioneering initiative that provides financial literacy training for the children of private clients.

“Building legacy is a multi-generational endeavor,” Van Linh emphasizes. “By equipping our clients’ children with financial knowledge and a sense of stewardship, we are protecting wealth and helping to ensure it grows and creates a positive impact for decades to come. This is our ultimate commitment—to be a trusted partner through every stage of our clients’ success story.”

In a rapidly evolving market, Techcombank has established a clear vision for the future of private banking in Vietnam—one that is deeply personal, digitally empowered, and holistically integrated into the lives and legacies of the nation’s most successful individuals.

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Top Banks In Saudi Arabia

Mar 12, 2026 Finance Desk

From the first oil discoveries to the ambitious economic diversification of Vision 2030, Saudi Arabia’s banks have been indispensable partners in the Kingdom’s transformation.

Once a land of pearl diving and desert trade routes, Saudi Arabia is today one of the world’s largest economies and a powerful force in global finance, with a banking sector that ranks among the most dynamic and well-capitalized in the Middle East.

Regulated by the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA), the country’s banking sector has undergone successive waves of modernization, from the Saudization of foreign-owned banks in the 1970s to the digital transformation reshaping the industry today. Saudi banks are now at the forefront of financing multi-billion-dollar mega-projects — from NEOM’s futuristic, car-free, zero-carbon urban living to the Red Sea Project’s regenerative, marine-focused luxury tourism — while championing Islamic finance innovation and expanding their reach across the region and beyond.

These are the leading banks in Saudi Arabia, listed alphabetically, each with its own distinctive strengths and unique history.

Al Rajhi Bank

What began as a small family currency exchange operation in Riyadh has grown into the world’s largest Shariah-compliant institution with assets nearing $300 billion. Al Rajhi Bank traces its origins to 1957, when four brothers —Sulaiman, Saleh, Mohamed and Abdullah Al Rajhi— who were born in poverty to become one of Saudi Arabia’s most prominent families, began building a network of individual banking and commercial entities. In 1978, these entities were consolidated under the Al Rajhi Trading and Exchange Corporation, and in 1988 the bank was formally established as a Saudi joint stock company.

Al Rajhi Bank has been essential in bridging the gap between modern financial demands and Shariah compliance, pioneering products such as Islamic credit cards, lease financing and Sukuk, and blending dense branch coverage with heavy digital adoption. It serves approximately 20 million customers through a network of over 500 branches and more than 4,000 ATMs across Saudi Arabia, and maintains an international presence in Kuwait, Jordan and Malaysia. Al Rajhi Bank is a repeat winner of Global Finance awards, including for Best Islamic Bank, Best Consumer Digital Bank and Best Foreign Exchange Provider.

Alinma Bank

Established by Royal Decree in 2006, Alinma Bank is the youngest of Saudi Arabia’s major banks and —matching its name, which means “growth” or “development” in Arabic — one of its fastest-growing. Its purple branding incorporates the Khuzama (Wild Lavender), a Saudi symbol of the welcoming desert after rain, to signal a departure from legacy institutions, and position Alinma as a modern, boutique and consumer-centric alternative.

With assets of more than $80 billion, the bank was founded by three of the country’s most powerful state entities—the Public Investment Fund, the Public Pension Agency, and the General Organization for Social Insurance—each holding an equal 10% stake, with the remaining 70% offered to the public in April 2008, making it one of the most anticipated IPOs in Saudi market history.

Fully Shariah-compliant across all its operations, Alinma provides a comprehensive range of retail, corporate, investment and treasury services. With over 100 branches, more than 1,500 ATMs and an extensive digital platform, the bank serves close to 6 million customers. Alinma has earned recognition from Global Finance, including for Best Islamic Bank and in the Best Digital Banks category.

Arab National Bank

Established in 1979 by Royal Decree, Arab National Bank (ANB) took over the operations of six branches previously run by the Jordan-headquartered Arab Bank in the Kingdom, and has since grown its network to over 120 locations.

Always at the forefront of innovation, ANB introduced the TeleMoney international money-transfer service in 1992. In 2000, it became the first bank to launch an internet banking service in Saudi Arabia, evolving into a major player in the Middle East with a strong focus on digital transformation while remaining, to this day, a close collaborator with the FinTech sector.

With total assets close to $70 billion, Arab National Bank delivers a comprehensive suite of financial services spanning retail and private banking, corporate and commercial banking, treasury operations, and insurance. Its Shariah‑compliant products are offered through its subsidiary, Arab National Investment Company. The bank’s financing capabilities range from microlending to project and structured finance, including dedicated support for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs), a segment for which ANB was recognized by Global Finance in the Best Bank in Saudi Arabia category.

Bank Albilad

Established in 2004, Bank Albilad is one of Saudi Arabia’s newer and smaller full‑service institutions. As a born‑digital Sharia‑compliant bank that never had to unwind legacy systems, it was designed for modern digital‑first banking, positioning itself early as a nimble provider of services to personal, SME, and corporate clients, who can also rely on a network of over 100 branches across the Kingdom.

Beyond conventional banking services, Bank Albilad has built a diversified group of subsidiaries that strengthen its market offering: Albilad Capital provides investment banking, brokerage, and asset management; Enjaz has emerged as a leader in international remittance services, processing some of the largest outbound transfer volumes in the region; and Albilad Real Estate and Financial Solutions Company round out the group’s capabilities. The bank has also been ranked among the Safest Islamic Banks in the Gulf Cooperation Council by Global Finance magazine.

Bank AlJazira

Established in 1975, by 1979 Bank AlJazira had already transitioned to become a fully Islamic banking institution, earning the distinction of becoming the first bank in the Kingdom to offer fully Shariah-compliant services. In 2002, it again broke new ground by introducing Takaful Ta’awuni, giving Saudis the first fully Shariah-compliant alternative to conventional life insurance.

Today, the Jeddah-headquartered bank manages around $40 billion in assets and serves customers through approximately 80 branches and 60 Fawri Remittance Centers across the Kingdom, offering retail, corporate, investment and private banking services. Its investment arm, AlJazira Capital, extends that reach into brokerage, asset management, and corporate advisory. Global Finance has recognized Bank AlJazira as one of the Safest Islamic Banks in the GCC.

Banque Saudi Fransi

With roots stretching back to the French colonial-era banking institution Banque de l’Indochine et de Suez, Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) has one of the most international pedigrees of any bank in the Kingdom. When the Saudi government enacted its Saudization policy in the late 1970s and converted all foreign bank branches into Saudi joint stock companies with majority local ownership, BSF was established in 1977 by Royal Decree as a joint venture between prominent Saudi shareholders and its French predecessor. Its cosmopolitan legacy is reflected to this day in its enduring strength in trade finance and cross-border corporate banking through its affiliation with Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, an arm of the storied French banking group.

With assets valued at approximately $80 billion, a workforce of around 3,000 employees, and over 80 branches and 570 ATMs nationwide, Banque Saudi Fransi serves approximately 1.3 million customers across four primary segments: retail, corporate, treasury, and investment banking. BSF has been recognized by Global Finance numerous times, including for Best Bank for Cash Management in the Middle East, and in the Best Bank, Safest Banks, and Top Innovators categories.

Riyad Bank

Established in 1957, Riyad Bank is the oldest publicly held bank in Saudi Arabia. Its founding coincided with a period of rapid transformation in the Kingdom, as oil revenues began reshaping the economy and creating demand for sophisticated financial services. Today, the Saudi government retains a 51% stake in the institution, the third-largest in the Kingdom with assets of about $140 billion.

Riyad Bank provides a comprehensive range of fully Shariah-compliant products and services to retail, corporate, and SME clients through over 330 domestic branches, while its investment banking subsidiary, Riyad Capital, is a top player in IPO advisory and asset management.

Much like in its early years, the bank remains a leading arranger of syndicated loans in the oil, petrochemicals, and infrastructure sectors. Yet, the seven‑decade‑old banking institution is very much committed to digital innovation and alignment with Vision 2030. Riyad Bank has been recognized by Global Finance for excellence in Best Corporate/Institutional Digital Banks, Best Investment Bank and Safest Bank categories, among others.

Saudi Awwal Bank

The story of Saudi Awwal Bank (SAB) is, in many ways, the story of banking in Saudi Arabia itself. One of its predecessors, Alawwal Bank—originally the Netherlands Trading Society, established in 1926—was the first bank in the Kingdom and played a crucial role in the country’s early financial development. The other half of SAB’s lineage is the Saudi British Bank (SABB), created in 1978 when the operations of the British Bank of the Middle East were transferred to a new Saudi joint‑stock company in partnership with HSBC, which continues to hold approximately 31% of SAB’s capital.

In 2018, the Saudi British Bank announced its merger with Alawwal Bank. The integration was completed in 2021, resulting in SAB, a universal bank offering the full spectrum of banking and financial services, with approximately $120 billion in assets and more than 100 branches in Saudi Arabia, as well as one in London. SAB has been recognized numerous times by Global Finance, earning awards in the Best Bank, Best Private Bank, Best Trade Finance Provider, Best SME Bank, and Best Bank for Sustainable Finance categories.

Saudi Investment Bank

The Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB) was founded by Royal Decree in 1976 and started operations a year later with a primary mandate to provide medium and long-term industrial financing in support of the Kingdom’s economic development.

Over the years, the bank broadened its scope into full commercial banking, and in 2006 it launched its Alasalah Islamic Banking brand, offering a dedicated range of Shariah-compliant products and services through a network of specialized branches. SAIB has also established a range of joint ventures and subsidiaries spanning investment banking, share trading, asset management, leasing, mortgages, insurance, and credit cards.

A publicly listed company on the Saudi Exchange, with total assets exceeding $46 billion, SAIB caters to about one million customers through its 50 branches across the Kingdom, while keeping a dedicated focus on financing quasi-government and private industrial sectors, alongside trade finance solutions designed to support imports and grow Saudi exports.

Saudi National Bank

Also known as SNB AlAhli, the Saudi National Bank (SNB) is the largest financial institution in Saudi Arabia and one of the largest banks in the Middle East. Its principal heritage is the National Commercial Bank (NCB), which was founded in December 1953 and became the first bank to be officially licensed and operate in the Kingdom under a Royal Decree. For decades, NCB served as the anchor of Saudi banking, financing the country’s development across oil, infrastructure, and commerce. In April 2021, following one of the largest banking mergers in regional history, NCB combined with Samba Financial Group —itself originally established as Citibank’s Saudi operations, nationalized in 1980— to create the Saudi National Bank.

With total assets of over $300 billion, SNB serves approximately 15 million customers through over 480 branches and 20 retail service centers across the Kingdom, with international offices in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, as well as in Singapore, China, South Korea, and the United Kingdom.

The Public Investment Fund and the General Organization for Social Insurance are among its largest shareholders. SNB is also the preeminent financier for Saudi Arabia’s landmark Vision 2030 infrastructure and diversification projects, and regularly wins Global Finance awards in the Safest Bank, Best Bank, and Best Digital Bank categories.

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EU’s largest economies push for faster capitals market integration in joint letter

Mar 12, 2026 Finance Desk

The EU’s six largest economies are urging Brussels to accelerate the long-awaited integration of capital markets to “strengthen Europe’s growth potential”, according to a letter sent on Tuesday to the Eurogroup boss and several EU commissioners.

The finance ministers of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain say that making tangible progress on the rebranded “Savings and Investment Union” has become an “urgent necessity,” pledging to push “this important project forward”, in a letter addressed to EU economy chief Valdis Dombrovskis and Eurogroup President.

“Deeper and more integrated capital markets would strengthen Europe’s growth potential, enhance its economic sovereignty and provide a stronger foundation for financing common priorities,” the letter said.

In particular, the ministers call on EU institutions to reach an agreement among member states by summer on one of the key elements of the capital markets integration agenda: the Market Integration and Supervision Package (MISP).

The MISP is a set of legislative proposals by the European Commission aimed at strengthening the supervision of financial market infrastructures across the bloc and improving how they operate.

“A central purpose of the package is to remove national barriers and to improve cross border distribution of investment funds, so investors have better access to the EU capital markets and companies benefit from deeper pools of capital”, the letter says.

The six countries also ask the EU to advance its digital payments agenda, specifically by promoting private pan-European payment networks that can compete with US-based Visa and Mastercard, and by accelerating the adoption of the digital euro.

Agreement by the summer

Capital markets allow companies and governments to raise funds by selling assets such as shares or bonds to investors.

To strengthen and integrate these markets across the EU, the European Commission has proposed a series of legislative measures under the Savings and Investment Union package.

In recent months, EU countries and institutions have signalled a more ambitious goal, aiming for an agreement among co-legislators on most of the SIU legislation by June.

However, EU countries are not fully aligned on the technical aspects of capital markets integration, causing delays to the broader strategic agenda.

Another key legislative proposal is the revisions of the securitisation framework, which are EU rules introduced in 2019 with the objective of ensuring safer market practices, to avoid other financial crisis such as the 2008 global shock.

The revision, which aims to simplify certain requirements and reduce high operational costs, is to be approved by autumn 2026, according to signatories.

Digital payments

The six EU countries also support the development of additional pan-European private digital payment solutions, viewed as a key pillar of the EU’s strategic autonomy, since most digital payments are currently processed through US-based infrastructures.

According to 2025 European Central Bank data, Mastercard and Visa account for 61% of card payments and nearly 100% of cross-border ones.

In this context, the six countries are also calling for an accelerated rollout of a public digital payment solution: the digital euro. Currently under negotiation, it would be an electronic form of cash issued by the European Central Bank, serving as an additional payment option alongside cash and bank-issued cards.

The project is facing significant delays in the European Parliament. In particular, the leading rapporteur on the file, the Spanish centre-right MEP Fernando Navarrete, is pushing to reduce the scope of the digital euro to offline payments only, in order to avoid competing with other private infrastructure, such as Visa and Mastercard.

“We push for swift conclusions of the legislative process of the digital euro and we invite the European Parliament to follow the Council’s approach to establish the digital euro (in both its online and offline modalities) as a comprehensive, interoperable and sovereign European payment solution for European citizens”, the six countries wrote in the letter.

The co-legislators initially aimed for full adoption of the digital euro by the end of 2026. However, due to delays in the parliament, the six countries have not set a specific adoption deadline.

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Iran strikes neutralise record IEA reserves release as oil tops $100

Mar 12, 2026 Finance Desk

Brent futures rose sharply on Thursday, spiking above $100 before easing slightly but remaining higher than levels seen earlier in the week as markets stay incredibly volatile.

This comes despite an unprecedented decision by the 32-member International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday to release a record 400 million barrels to calm markets, more than double the volume released after Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Following the IEA decision, Iran stepped up its offensive campaign and launched strikes on Omani oil storage facilities at the Salalah port and multiple ships in and near the Strait of Hormuz, sending prices higher again.

Record coordinated release of reserves

The US alone is contributing 172 million barrels. Germany, France and Italy also confirmed they would tap their stocks, while Japan said it would begin releases next Monday.

IEA executive director Fatih Birol described the current Iran-related crisis as an “oil market challenge unprecedented in scale”, adding that the collective response reflected “strong solidarity” in defence of global energy security.

Exports of crude and refined products from the region have dropped to 10-15% of pre-war levels, with the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries one-fifth of the world’s oil, effectively closed to the large majority of tankers.

Iran’s attacks blunt expected price relief

The new Iranian strikes came at lightning speed, directly after the IEA announcement.

Drones targeted fuel storage tanks and silos at Oman’s Salalah port, igniting fires that Omani authorities were still working to contain late on Wednesday.

British maritime security firm Ambrey confirmed damage to the facilities, while Danish shipping giant Maersk temporarily halted port operations.

Omani officials stressed there had been “no disruption to the continuity of oil supplies or petroleum derivatives” inside the country itself, while Iranian state media reported that President Pezeshkian had assured Oman’s sultan the incident would be investigated.

At the same time, six vessels were struck in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.

Among the reports, there was confirmation of a projectile hitting a container ship near the UAE and strikes on two tankers in Iraqi waters.

UK Maritime Trade Operations, and other monitoring groups, attributed the incidents to Iranian forces or proxies.

These developments, occurring the very day of the reserves release, appear to have smothered the anticipated calming effect on prices.

As of Thursday, the number of ships struck in the region since the beginning of the conflict rose to at least sixteen.

Record release may signal deeper market concerns

Some analysts note that the sheer volume of the release could itself be interpreted negatively. Previous coordinated actions never exceeded 183 million barrels.

The scale of the release suggests importing nations already view the disruption as the most severe and long-lasting in decades.

Even worse, a record release may not be enough.

Speaking to Euronews, Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, was blunt in his assessment.

“A record 400 million barrel release from emergency reserves is helpful, but it’s not going to go very far to offset the roughly 15 million daily supply currently disrupted.”

Patterson also added that “the only solution that will bring oil prices down on a sustained basis is getting oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again.”

Oxford Economics echoes this concern, warning that “the economic effect of higher energy costs rises as the oil price increases,” in a report that seemingly indicates the crisis is far from over and we have yet to feel the compounding effect of the initial shock.

Russian sanctions relief remains off the table

With the reserve release failing to calm prices, attention has turned to Russian oil as a potential source of additional supply.

The US Treasury last week granted Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to purchase Russian crude from vessels already stranded at sea, though the measure expires on 4 April and deliberately excludes new shipments.

Following the G7 emergency discussions on Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron stated that the group had agreed “the situation does not justify lifting any sanctions” on Russia, emphasising the need to increase global production instead.

The contrast between Washington’s narrow waiver and the G7’s firm collective position leaves little prospect of sanctions relief acting as a meaningful pressure valve, a view shared by analysts.

“Any sanction relief for Russia would see some marginal supply increases, but again not enough, with Russia’s oil output having held up well in recent years despite sanctions,” Warren Patterson of ING told Euronews.

$140-$150 oil barrel possible if conflict is prolonged

Should tensions persist, analysts warn prices could climb substantially higher.

Oxford Economics identifies $140 per barrel as the threshold at which the global economy tips into mild recession, reducing world GDP by 0.7% by year-end and pushing the UK, the Eurozone and Japan into contraction.

The managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, also stated that every 10% increase in oil prices, provided they persist for most of the year, will push up global inflation by 0.4% and reduce worldwide economic output by as much as 0.2%.

“The risk is stark,” Patterson warned. “It’s only a matter of time before we see oil prices hitting fresh record highs if the conflict is not swiftly and decisively resolved.”

The IEA’s intervention has provided a temporary buffer, but with little visible impact on prices.

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Oil Underinvestment Could Hinder US’ Iran-Crisis Response: Here’s Why

Mar 11, 2026 Finance Desk

Home News Oil Underinvestment Could Hinder US’ Iran-Crisis Response: Here’s Why

No matter how the Iran war gets resolved, the US and other countries will be forced to reckon with a global oil market in complete disarray.

Underinvestment in the oil industry makes the current supply shock much riskier worldwide, industry experts say, forcing the US, the EU, and various Gulf countries into a scramble over where and how to extract.

Prior to the US’ attack on Iran on February 28, the situation had already been precarious. Iran basically controls the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest oil shipping channel. Transportation through this channel is currently closed, despite President Donald Trump’s promise to keep it open. Regardless of how this situation resolves, the broader implications of structural underinvestment across the oil and gas value chain have exposed just how unstable the global energy infrastructure is.

“This is not your father’s energy sector anymore,” Adam Turnquist, Chief Technical Strategist for LPL Financial, says.

Essentially, there was a shift from “drill drill drill” to returning cash to shareholders through dividends and free cash flow, he explained. This change led to better stock performance and improved financial metrics, such as credit spreads and default swaps. But, Turnquist adds, “there’s evidence of under-investment.”

‘A Multi-Million-Barrel Disruption’

Recall the 2011‑2014 time frame when oil prices were above $100 per barrel. Major oil companies like ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp, BP plc, Shell plc and TotalEnergies SE enjoyed strong cash flows, allowing them to generate substantial profits and reward shareholders.

When oil prices collapsed between 2014 and 2016, institutional shareholders pushed hard for capital discipline instead of growth. Corporations, rather than drilling aggressively, returned troves of cash to investors via buybacks and dividends.

In 2023, alone, Exxon, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP returned a record $114 billion to shareholders — 76% higher than their average payouts.

“That translated into lower reinvestment rates, fewer long‑cycle megaproject sanctions, and a bias toward short‑cycle barrels, even as global demand continued to grow,” Benny Wong, Senior Energy Analyst at PitchBook, told Global Finance.

There was also an energy transition, and companies prioritized ESG (environmental, social, and governance) over long-term oil projects, leading major funds to reduce fossil fuel investments.

“The result is a thinner spare capacity buffer and a smaller pipeline of readily deployable projects, which limits the industry’s ability to backfill a sudden, multi‑million‑barrel disruption like the one arising from the Iran conflict,” Wong added.

Oil Prices Spike

So far, the shock is reverberating across the globe. Brent crude, the international benchmark, entered 2026 oversupplied, with forward prices in the $50s, according to Chas Johnston, CreditSights senior analyst.

On Monday, the price of Brent crude spiked to $119.50 per barrel—the highest it has been since the summer of 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine.

“It’s nearly the same cadence,” Turnquist says, citing Bloomberg data. See the chart below.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, also saw similar price spikes, briefly reaching $119.48 per barrel. By late Monday, prices fell back below $90 per barrel, following mixed signals from US leadership, including contradictory statements from Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth about the conflict’s timeline.

And it could get worse, according to Wood Mackenzie, a consultancy firm for the energy sector. On Tuesday, the firm determined that $200 per barrel “is not outside the realms of possibility in 2026.”

To quell the panic, extreme measures are under consideration. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed on Wednesday to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to the market to address the current disruption. That’s double the amount the IEA put into the market in 2022.

Over the weekend, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the US could potentially release oil from its 400 million barrels of reserve to lower gas prices.

Trump subsequently confirmed that he would ease sanctions on certain countries to help reduce oil prices. This followed a recent 30-day waiver announced by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on sanctions for Russian oil sales to India, due to global supply pressures.

Can Any Country Fill The Gap?

Further complicating matters, oil-producing countries like Bahrain and Kuwait declared “force majeure,” stopping production as storage nears capacity and exports falter. With Iran, Israel, and the U.S. each targeting energy infrastructure and the narrow Strait of Hormuz under threat, it remains unclear which alternative transport routes or supply sources could fill the gap.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates remain two key options because they hold most of OPEC’s effective spare capacity. However, analysts still question how much cushion truly exists and how long they can sustain it. Reports already suggest Saudi Arabia and the UAE have begun reducing output by several million barrels per day.

“In other words,” Wong says, “the buffer is meaningful but not unlimited, particularly if the disruption is prolonged or widens regionally.”

West African and Guyanese deepwater projects won’t quickly replace lost supply, either. However, they could strengthen global production over the medium to long term, Wong says. Guyana’s rapidly developing offshore sector, for example, could add more output in the coming years, though expansion will still take time.

Then there’s Namibia, which has had significant offshore discoveries in recent years. BP, Shell and TotalEnergies are among the companies that have set up shop there, but as Wong puts it: “Commercial production is still a few years away.”

US Shale Is Another Issue

As for the US, a rapid ramp now requires more than just a strong price signal.

“Producers are operating with much tighter capital discipline, and scaling quickly requires having available rigs, completion crews, frac sand and pipeline takeaway capacity, all of which can act as bottlenecks,” Wong says.

CreditSights’ Johnston agrees.

“The ability for US producers to respond is also quite limited, because it still takes six to nine months to bring new production online, even from the short-cycle shale industry,” he says.

Until then, the stakes remain high. Wood Mackenzie projects roughly 15 million barrels per day (mbpd) of Gulf oil exports could be lost if the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. They note that alternatives like US shale and uncompleted wells might only add a few hundred thousand barrels per day over months — not even close to filling the 15 million‑barrel gap.

The circumstances are enough to give analysts pause, given the cavalier attitude coming from the US.

Turnquist echoed a point his firm’s chief macro strategist made during a recent call: “You can’t shake the hornet’s nest and then put it back away.” Once geopolitical issues ignite, they rarely resolve quickly, he said, pointing to wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and Russia-Ukraine as examples.

“There’s really no concrete signs that it’s going to end anytime soon,” he added.

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US Justice Department digs into Iran’s sanctions evasion via Binance

Mar 11, 2026 Finance Desk

Published on
11/03/2026 – 16:15 GMT+1

A probe has been initiated by the US Justice Department into Iran’s use of Binance, the world’s largest crypto platform, to circumvent US sanctions and provide financial backing to terrorist organisations with ties to the IRGC, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The US DOJ’s examination stems from company documents and accounts provided by individuals familiar with the matter.

Authorities have contacted people with direct knowledge of the Iranian-linked transactions to request interviews and collect evidence, as per the WSJ report.

A monitor appointed by the US Treasury Department has reportedly asked Binance for details on the Iranian transactions, including information about a business partner responsible for a large share of the flows.

At this stage, it remains uncertain whether the investigation targets Binance for any potential misconduct or if it is confined to activity by customers on the platform.

A spokesperson for the company told the WSJ that Binance “categorically did not directly transact with any sanctioned entities”.

This development brings the company back to the centre of US regulatory attention, just months after its founder received a presidential pardon, highlighting persistent challenges in enforcing sanctions within the rapidly evolving crypto and fintech sectors.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, was pardoned by President Trump back in October.

The investigation reopens scrutiny of the exchange, which pleaded guilty in 2023 to breaching US sanctions and banking laws. That case resulted in a record $4.3bn (€3.7bn) penalty and a requirement for ongoing US oversight.

Under the terms of the 2023 agreement, Binance must actively screen clients for terrorism financing and sanctions breaches, as well as report suspicious activity promptly to authorities.

US congressional inquiry adds pressure

The developments have also drawn attention from Capitol Hill.

US Senator Richard Blumenthal, a senior Democrat on the Senate Homeland Security Committee, opened a formal inquiry last month into Binance’s handling of the Iranian transactions.

Citing the scale of the unreported flows, approaching nearly $2bn (€1.7bn) to sanctioned entities, and the suspension of internal investigators, Blumenthal questioned whether the exchange had met its obligations under US sanctions and banking laws.

He requested detailed records from Binance, which responded by describing media coverage as inaccurate and highlighting its “best-in-class compliance programme”.

The senator later described that reply as evasive and insufficient to address his concerns.

The timing of the US DOJ’s probe coincides with heightened efforts to disrupt financing networks linked to Iran’s IRGC.

Ahead of joint military actions with Israel against Iran, Washington stepped up measures to cut off revenue streams, particularly those involving crypto assets used to repatriate proceeds from oil sales to China.

In January, the US Treasury Department sanctioned two smaller crypto exchanges for moving large sums to digital wallets connected to the IRGC.

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Top 10 U.S. Landowners You Probably Haven’t Heard Of

Mar 11, 2026 Finance Desk

Key Takeaways

Wealthy individuals privately own 60% of U.S. land.
Red Emmerson’s family holds 2.4 million acres.
Bill Gates owns over 260,000 acres of farmland.
Canada leads in foreign-owned U.S. land.
China owns 1% of U.S. land.

The U.S. covers about 2.26 billion acres—60% of that (1.3 billion acres) is privately held by wealthy individuals and corporations. The bulk of that land is made up of farms and ranches, and the rest is mostly forests.

U.S. farmland is valuable. As of 2025, the average value of farm real estate in the U.S. hit $4,350 an acre, more than double what it was in 2007.

Josh Seong / Investopedia

“Farmland is more than a business asset for most families in agriculture. Often, farmland is a tangible symbol of legacy, purpose, and stewardship in addition to a strategy for growing the business,” says Natalina Sents Bausch, digital director at Successful Farming.

The Land Report analyzes records and transactions and releases a report of the top 100 landowners in the U.S. Among the list is Microsoft co-founder and billionaire Bill Gates, who owns the most farmland in the U.S., with over 260,000 acres in private agricultural land. Also on the list is Amazon founder and billionaire Jeff Bezos, who owns 420,000 acres of land, including the 165,000-acre Corn Ranch in Far West Texas, which serves as the launch site for Bezos’ Blue Origin rockets.

While Gates and Bezos are relatively recognizable, the top 10 landowners in the U.S. are individuals most people have likely not heard of. Some families have owned agricultural land and corporations for generations, dating back over 100 years.

So, who are the people, corporations, and foreign countries behind most of the land in the U.S.?

1. Emmerson Family: Owners of 2.4 Million Acres

Red Emmerson and his family are the largest landowners in the U.S., with 2.4 million acres in timberland across California, Oregon, and Washington. The Emmersons manage the land they own through their company, Sierra Pacific Industries (SPI), which is one of the largest producers of lumber, renewable energy, windows, and millwork in the country.

The Emmersons became the nation’s largest landowners in 2021, when they acquired 175,000 acres in Oregon from Seneca Timber Company, surpassing Liberty Media chairman John Malone‘s 2.2 million acres.

2. John Malone’s 2.2 Million Acre Holdings

Media mogul and telecomm giant John Malone is the second-largest landowner in the U.S., with 2.2 million acres across Wyoming, New Mexico, Florida, and Colorado.

Malone is the board chair at Liberty Media Corporation and the company’s largest shareholder. Malone was the CEO of a media company, Tele Communications, Inc., which he sold to AT&T for about $50 billion in 1999.

His Malone Family Land Preservation Foundation partners with various organizations, such as the Land Institute, on initiatives focused on sustainability and conservation.

3. Ted Turner’s 2 Million Acres

Ted Turner, the media billionaire who founded television conglomerate Turner Broadcasting System and CNN, is third on the list of the nation’s largest landowners, with 2 million acres in personal and ranch land. Turner ranches across Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, and South Dakota, focused on ecotourism, managing bison, and hunting and fishing.

Turner owns 1.1 million acres in New Mexico, including a host of luxury hospitality properties, including Vermejo Park Ranch, which is the largest ranch in the U.S.

4. Stan Kroenke’s 1.8 Million Acre Empires

Real estate and sports mogul Stan Kroenke is the fourth largest landowner in the U.S., with about 1.8 million acres across Texas, Wyoming, and Nevada. Kroenke’s Waggoner Ranch in Texas is one of the largest ranches in the U.S., at 510,000 acres. Founded in 1849, Waggoner is still a working ranch with oil production and cattle.

Through his sports empire, Kroenke owns the NFL team LA Rams, the NBA team Denver Nuggets, and the U.K. soccer club Arsenal, among others.

5. Reed Family’s 1.7 Million Acre Ownership

The Reed Family is the fifth-largest landowner in the U.S., with a total of 1.7 million acres owned across California, Oregon, Washington, and Montana.

The Reed family has owned and managed Seattle-based forest management company Green Diamond Resource Company for more than 130 years. Green Diamond produces about 2 million board feet of logs annually and is focused on sustainable forest management, including delivering logs to local mills and forest carbon offsets.

6. Irving Family Controls 1.3 Million Acres

The Irving family owns 1.3 million acres of timberland in Maine and is the state’s largest private landowner. The family’s forest products business, J.D. Irving Limited, is over 140 years old and has timberland holdings in New Brunswick, Canada, and Maine. The family’s Irving Woodlands organization has planted more than 1 billion trees in Canada and the U.S.

7. Buck Family’s 1.2 Million Acres of Land

The Buck family owns 1.2 million acres of timberland in Maine. The holdings once belonged to late billionaire and nuclear physicist, Peter Buck, who co-founded the popular sandwich chain, Subway. Buck’s wealth and land are thanks to his $1,000 investment in 1965 in a sandwich shop owned by his friend’s son, which later turned into Subway, one of the world’s largest chain restaurants.

8. Singleton Family’s 1.1 Million Acre Landhold

The family of Henry Singleton, an entrepreneur and electrical engineer, owns 1.1 million acres in New Mexico. Singleton, who died in 1999, was the co-founder of industrial conglomerate Teledyne in 1960.

He later bought the historic 81,000-acre San Cristobal Ranch in New Mexico and eventually expanded his land holdings to over one million acres, mostly through acquiring former Spanish land grants. Singleton Ranches has land across New Mexico and California, and has cattle and horse operations.

9. The King Ranch Heirs’ 911k Acres

The King Ranch heirs own 911,215 acres across Texas and Florida. Founded in 1853 by Captain Richard King primarily for cotton cultivation, King Ranch is still one of the largest cotton producers in the U.S. today. Its Florida operation produces sugar cane, sod, rice, and sweet corn and is the largest producer of orange juice in the U.S.

According to an excerpt from James Marten’s book “Slaves and Rebels: A Peculiar Institution in Texas, 1861 – 1865,” there were enslaved people on King Ranch at the time.

10. Pingree Heirs Control 830k Acres

The Pingree heirs, descendants of David Pingree Sr., own 830,000 acres of land in Maine. Pingree Sr. was a shipping merchant who expanded into timberland in the 1800s through his company, Seven Islands Land Company, which the family owns and operates today.

How Much Land Is Owned by Indigenous People In the U.S.?

Only about 2.6% of American land is owned by Indigenous people today, as a result of forced migration and land dispossession that began with European colonization in the 17th century.

Native tribes have lost 99% of the land they historically occupied in the United States, according to data from 2021 on the long-term impacts of land dispossession.

According to the research, Indigenous lands today also have less access to participate in the energy economy, with 24% fewer oil and gas resources compared to historical lands.

How Much of U.S. Land Is Owned by Other Countries?

Foreign countries are investing in U.S. land, too. Foreign entities and individuals have a stake in an estimated 40 million acres in the U.S.—about 3.1% of the privately held farm and forest land—in the country, according to 2021 data (most recent available) from the USDA.

Canada owns the largest share (31%) of foreign-owned U.S. land at 12.8 million acres. The Netherlands, Italy, the UK, and Germany hold another 31% of foreign-owned land, totaling 12.4 million acres combined. Meanwhile, China owns only 1% of foreign-owned land in the U.S.

Half of all the U.S. land held by foreign investors is for timber or forest land, followed by crops, pasture, and other agricultural land, while just 2% is non-agricultural land.

The Bottom Line

Land in the United States is a powerful and often overlooked asset, concentrated in the hands of a small group of wealthy individuals, corporations, and foreign investors. While families like the Emmersons, Malones, and Turners dominate private ownership, foreign countries like Canada and corporations also hold a meaningful stake.

Meanwhile, Indigenous communities, who once occupied nearly all U.S. territory, now control just a small fraction. Understanding who owns the land helps shed light on wealth distribution, resource access, and national policy issues.

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Saudi Arabia Appoints Al-Saif As Vision 2030 Faces Reality Check

Mar 10, 2026 Finance Desk

Saudi Arabia’s fixation with megaprojects may be giving way to more pragmatic initiatives better aligned with investor appetite.

The urgent need for foreign investment crystallized last month when a royal decree replaced veteran cabinet member and investment minister Khalid Al-Falih amid broader funding concerns over the kingdom’s signature Vision 2030 development framework.

Foreign investment amounted to just 2.1% of GDP last year, according to Capital Economics. That’s well below the government’s Vision 2030 target. The research firm also forecasts government debt will balloon to 40% of GDP next year. That’s up from just over 30% last year and above consensus.

Vision 2030, which now appears to be under review, represents Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s blueprint for diversifying an economy still heavily reliant on hydrocarbon revenues.

Replacing Al-Falih is Fahad Al-Saif, sometimes also referred to as Fahad bin Abduljalil Al-Saif, a former HSBC banker.

Until his appointment, Al-Saif held various positions at the Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s $1.15 trillion flagship sovereign wealth fund. He was also instrumental in overhauling the kingdom’s capital-raising capabilities. Earlier, he played a role in roadshows aimed at mustering investor support for Saudi bond sales.

But the government’s recent signaling suggests Al-Saif will preside over a period of relative austerity while attempting to maintain investor support for a rolling set of reforms. His stewardship is likely to face an early test as policymakers’ attention is focusing on future foreign investment initiatives.

Recent reports imply that the government will soon announce a streamlined set of priorities and a pivot away from nosebleed-inducing megaprojects such as The Line, a 170-kilometer, multibillion-dollar planned smart city that makes up a segment of the ambitious Neom development.

Posts on social media have broadly welcomed Al-Saif’s appointment, variously describing him as a safe pair of hands fit to carry out a shift towards more mundane revenue-generating projects.

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Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Africa

Mar 10, 2026 Finance Desk

Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Africa | Global Finance Magazine

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Home Awards Award Winners Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Africa

Banks in Africa — including Absa, RMB, Nedbank, KCB, and Standard Bank — are driving critical SDG-focused projects.

Even though Africa is home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, the continent faces a funding gap as the 2030 target approaches to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations and tailored to the African Union’s Agenda 2063.

The SDGs aim to improve living standards for the African population by addressing issues such as hunger, education, clean water and sanitation, affordable and clean energy, inequality, and infrastructure.

While scrutiny of sustainability has increased, the African sustainable-finance market has continued to grow over the past two years. Debt volumes have been rising, for example, reaching a record of almost $13 billion in 2024, according to S&P Global.

However, the volume of sustainable bonds issued is less than 1% of the global total, which is insufficient to address Africa’s infrastructure and development needs. To meet these needs, Africa would need to close a funding gap between $670 billion and $762 billion per year by 2030, according to the UN Economic Commission for Africa and the African Development Bank, with the majority of the gap concentrated in the continent’s less developed countries.

This equates to a need for about $1.3 trillion in funding per year to fully achieve Africa’s SDGs. Despite these challenges, there have been significant advances in Africa as a direct result of efforts by African banks. Most importantly, this work has facilitated dramatic improvements in health outcomes over the past decade that are well above progress made elsewhere in the world.

Kenya Commercial Bank

Best Bank for Sustaining Communities

Sustainability is the Kenya Commercial Bank’s foundation for inclusive growth and economic resilience, and the bank’s success directly influences the health of the communities in which it operates. Through the KCB Foundation,

the bank invests in education, climate adaptation, and inclusion. The foundation’s 2Jiajiri program has created almost 61,000 jobs and provided support through vocational training and financial access to about 37,000 businesses. A collaboration with the Mastercard Foundation expanded access to finance and training to entrepreneurs.

KCB also prioritizes community investment projects for water security, education, sustainable agriculture, and inclusion for vulnerable groups. These projects include five community boreholes in Marsabit, Kenya, that provide water to about 27,000 households and 95,000 livestock animals; scholarships that end poverty for families; financing and equipment for about 3,400 livestock farmers and 15 producer groups; and cash-transfer programs for 22,000 refugees.

Absa

Best Bank for Sustainable Finance

Best Impact Investing Solution

Best Bank for Sustainable Infrastructure/Project Finance

Best Bank for Green Bonds

Absa is committed to building a sustainable future in Africa by financing projects that drive positive change, support the continent’s transition to clean energy, and nurture equitable, resilient, and future-focused communities. The bank is working to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. To work toward this goal, Absa has facilitated and arranged over 29.1 billion South African rands ($1.8 billion) in sustainable-finance transactions in 2025.

The bank contributed 1.6 billion rand as part of a larger 3.8 billion rand debt-financing package to support power producer Red Rocket’s 150-megawatt (MW) wind project. The project will supply 100% renewable energy to Discovery Green, which in turn provides it to medium-and large-sized companies. The package will fund the project’s full life cycle, from design through construction to operations and maintenance.

Absa also contributed 50% of the 9.4 billion rand debt package for the Red Sands Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) through project-finance lending, hedging, guarantees, and agency and account bank services. Once operational, this landmark transaction under South Africa’s Battery Energy Storage Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme will be the largest standalone BESS in Africa. To reduce operational risk, the revenue model is based on availability and not dispatched energy. The project provides environmental and grid benefits through load shifting—energy is stored during the day and dispatched during peak periods—to create greater grid stability and capacity for additional renewable-energy projects.

Rand Merchant Bank

Sustainable Finance Deal of the Year (British International Investment Transition Finance Facility)

Best Bank for Social Bonds

Best Bank for Transition/Sustainability-Linked Loans

Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) has been actively tackling climate resilience and a just transition to a low-carbon world. To accomplish this, the bank incorporates climate factors into its capital allocation, risk appetite, portfolio monitoring, and reporting.

In 2025, the bank completed several landmark transactions, such as FirstRand Bank’s first social-bond issuance for female-owned businesses, totaling 2.5 billion rands. This bond directly addresses barriers to financial inclusion, economic participation, and job creation for women by providing capital to women entrepreneurs.

RMB also arranged for the refinancing of Mediclinic’s 9 billion rand sustainability-linked loan across four lenders in what is currently one of the largest syndicated sustainable-finance transactions in South Africa. Mediclinic operates private hospitals that provide multidisciplinary acute care in South Africa and Namibia.

The bank has also developed a new transition-finance asset class and associated framework for allocating funds to projects facilitating emissions reductions. RMB served as the transition-finance adviser to FirstRand in the 2.6 billion rand facility from British International Investment, the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor. This facility mobilized international capital for Africa’s climate goals by funding transition loans across South Africa and the broader continent to support the decarbonization of hard-to-abate sectors, such as industrials, energy, and cement. The facility also creates a blueprint for how private and development finance can work together to advance the energy transition in emerging markets.

Nedbank

Best Platform/Technology Facilitating Sustainable Finance

Best Bank for Sustainability Transparency

Nedbank is working toward having the entirety of its lending and investment portfolio support a net-zero carbon economy by 2050. The bank’s strategy supports clients and communities while focusing on scalable sustainable-development finance that advances economic decarbonization and inclusive growth.

The bank incorporates transparency into its energy policy so that stakeholders can better understand and monitor its progress. Nedbank tracks and reports its environmental impact, to include exposure to thermal coal, oil, gas, and power generation. Along with Nedbank’s energy policy and nature-position statement, the bank produces glide paths with a framework for its net-zero transition. Position statements on climate change and nature address related risks and opportunities and provide thought leadership on sustainability issues and financing.

Nedbank also leverages technology and analytical tools that provide integral insight into its sustainable financings. The bank’s Climate Risk Tool analyzes how various climate events affect financed properties. The bank captures data not native to its existing systems and uses these in combination with existing data to estimate and report financed emissions that align with accounting methodologies.

Nedbank’s Building Efficiency Scale captures water and energy efficiencies in buildings, and the inhouse EDGE certification tool democratizes green-building certifications to address the low number of green-certified buildings in South Africa.

Standard Bank

Best Bank for Sustainability Bonds

Best Bank for ESG-Related Loans

Standard Bank has made sustainability a strategic priority and uses an approach that maximizes the positive impact while successfully managing risk. The bank focuses on business growth and job creation, infrastructure development, climate mitigation and adaptation, and financial health and inclusion.

The bank served as sole arranger and sustainability coordinator for the Industrial Development Corporation’s inaugural 2 billion rand sustainable bond and 1.4 billion rand private placement. These bonds were listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange Sustainability Segment and are helping advance South Africa’s transition to a more inclusive, low-carbon economy. The bonds will fund projects in renewable energy; energy efficiency; sustainable water management; clean transport; socioeconomic advancement; and MSME financing. They will also support initiatives for grid decarbonization and the growth of independent power producers.

Standard Bank also delivered a 6.1 billion rand debt package to the NOA Group to design, construct, commission, and operate the 505 MW Khauta solar photovoltaic (PV) facility in South Africa. This landmark project includes plans to build a BESS and connect an existing substation to the province’s strong grid via overhead lines. In addition to reducing carbon emissions, this green project will create jobs during construction and operation.

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Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Central Eastern Europe

Mar 10, 2026 Finance Desk

Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Central Eastern Europe | Global Finance Magazine

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Home Awards Award Winners Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Central Eastern Europe

These Central and Southeastern Europe banks are expanding ESG financing, green bonds, and sustainable infrastructure.

Last year may well go down as the year Central and Southeastern Europe truly came to grips with climate change—three heat waves across late spring and summer, unseasonal heavy rain, and serious flooding (which affected harvests across the region) proved that climate change can no longer be ignored.

Banks across the region have recognized the opportunities and are demonstrating ingenuity in developing new green-financing techniques. They are working closely with multinational institutions such as the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to help implement the EU’s Green Deal and make the continent the world’s first climate-neutral one.

Last year’s Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) Sustainable Finance Summit—held in May 2025, with this year’s summit scheduled for September—highlighted the region’s priorities. Many of these reflect CEE’s Communist past, in which pollution was exacerbated by a reliance on polluting coal and lignite and by a system that worked against conservation.

Financing in the energy sector remains key, with CEE aiming to increase the share of renewables from 30% of total energy consumption today to 75% by 2050. In addition, CEE and Southeastern European countries need about €8 billion annually for low-carbon technologies, particularly in infrastructure, transport, and energy.

The summit concluded that although there has been some pushback on ESG, there is growing awareness of the need to recalibrate it, especially where it excludes investments in defense and security. Reflecting the deterioration in Europe’s geopolitical situation over the past few years, among other things, the summit concluded that “security and defense can and should be reframed as part of broader sustainability and resilience agendas. Long-term peace and democracy are fundamental to sustainable societies.”

Raiffeisen Bank International

Best Bank for Sustainable Finance

Best Bank for Green Bonds

Best Bank for Sustainability Bonds

Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) is hardly a stranger to sustainable finance—the Austrian-based entity was among the first to sign the UN Principles for Responsible Banking and has embedded ESG across its strategy, now fully aligned with global standards. Since launching its first green bond in 2018, the bank has built a €5 billion sustainable bond portfolio across multiple currencies and countries.

By November 2025, ESG-labeled bonds were worth some €5 billion, 20% of the total €24.6 billion issued. Raiffeisen Bank Hungary issued a successful €300 million in green bonds in June 2025, while RBI’s €500 million benchmark green bond, issued in November 2025, was oversubscribed by a record amount, demonstrating strong demand for the product and the trust in which RBI is held.

One of RBI’s notable sustainable-finance achievements in 2025 was the relaunch of its Sustainability Bond Framework. According to Markus Ecker, RBI’s head of Sustainable Finance, “RBI will expand eligible green-loan categories and further strengthen advisory services to help clients transition. The goal: deeper emissions reductions and accelerated decarbonization across Central and Eastern Europe.”

RBI has also been active in issuing ESG loans: These increased 14.9% YoY to €19.3 billion at the end of September 2025.

Garanti BBVA

Sustainable Finance Deal of the Year: Antalya-Alanya Motorway Project

Best Bank for Sustaining Communities

Garanti BBVA, one of Turkey’s largest banks, with 28 million customers and almost 800 branches, was established in 1946 as Garanti Bank and is now 86% owned by Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Garanti has made sustainable investment core to its strategy. It seems only right that it should win these two prestigious awards, as its efforts are linked.

The bank’s community investment programs’ strategy comprises four focus areas aimed at sustaining and enriching communities: education for all, reducing inequality, accessible culture and knowledge production, and combating the climate crisis. Garanti monitors the outcomes of its programs using internationally recognized measurement and research techniques through social-impact analysis, ensuring that every Turkish lira invested generates substantially more value.

This emphasis on bringing people together made Garanti BBVA a natural fit for the flagship Antalya-Alanya Motorway Project. The new 122-kilometer motorway connecting Antalya to Alanya is one of Turkey’s major infrastructure developments.

Garanti BBVA participated in €1.7 billion in financing for the project, which will reduce travel time from two-and-a-half hours to just 36 minutes. According to the bank, the motorway will enhance productivity, contribute to overall economic growth, and generate annual savings of approximately 16.9 billion Turkish lira ($385.4 million) in time and 800 million lira in fuel consumption, resulting in a total yearly economic benefit of nearly 17.7 billion lira.

The new corridor will reduce carbon emissions by 47,000 tons per year, helping to preserve the pine forests of the Taurus Mountains as well.

Akbank

Best Impact Investing Solution

Best Bank for Sustainability Transparency

Akbank’s Sustainable Finance Framework—which had a portfolio of almost $4 billion at the start of 2025—is among the most ambitious and far-reaching in Turkey and the wider region, helping the bank to secure three of our CEE regional awards.

Akbank’s submission underscored the seriousness with which it approaches impact investing, stating, “We encourage investors to direct their capital toward areas and companies that contribute to the well-being of the planet.”

To prove it, Akbank launched Turkey’s strategic partnership with the UN Development Programme’s Cool Up program, which seeks to advance sustainable-cooling finance to mitigate the climate impact of cooling technologies.

Regarding sustainability transparency, Akbank has launched a series of initiatives, including active participation in the development of the EU’s Green Asset Ratio calculation criteria in conjunction with the Turkish Banking Association’s Sustainability Working Group and the banking sector’s Green Asset Ratio Working Group.

In 2025, Akbank began implementing the green transformation score for commercial, corporate, and SME clients in the 2030 target sectors. The scores are based on client-level transition practices, such as the availability of science-based climate targets, the implementation or planning of low-carbon practices, and the availability of low-carbon products.

This serious approach to transparency and commitment to social bonds is reflected in the bank’s raising of its sustainable-finance target for 2030 to 800 billion lira, having exceeded the bank’s previous 200 billion Turkish lira target.

PKO Bank Polski

Best Platform/Technology Facilitating Sustainability Finance

In response to customer demand for support with ESG, the energy transition, and sustainability generally, PKO Bank Polski—Poland’s largest bank by assets and a leader in ESG financing and bond issues—launched energiatransformacji.pl in 2025.

The new service, an interactive business hub, offers tools to help customers with their energy transition strategy (carbon footprint calculators and a subsidy search engine) and includes an educational database on ESG, sustainable development, and financing.

The initiative reflects PKO BP’s 2025-2027 strategy to secure a 20% share of Poland’s energy transition financing.

VUB

Circular Economy Commitment

As part of the Intesa Sanpaolo Group, VUB has long been committed to the highest ESG standards. Much of this focus has been on the consumer sphere, reflecting the Slovak bank’s strong position in its home market and in Czechia.

A typical example of VUB’s capacity for innovation was the introduction of a new Building Reconstruction Simulator that combines real-time market calculations and expert insight to help homeowners make informed, sustainable decisions when undertaking domestic renovations.

For corporate clients, particularly SMEs, the bank has introduced special minibonds that enable the issuance of direct debt securities to finance ESG-related projects. These include specific offerings to promote the circular economy, as well as the installation of renewable-energy projects and energy-efficiency upgrades.

Bank Pekao

Best Bank for Sustainable Infrastructure/Project Finance

Best Bank for Transition/Sustainability-Linked Loans

Poland’s second-largest bank, established in 1929, has prioritized ESG investing and lending over the past decade, becoming one of the largest players domestically and in the CEE region. In 2025, Bank Pekao unveiled its 2025-2027 strategy, outlining its main plans and priorities, building on its 2023 Sustainable Finance Framework.

In the first three quarters of 2025, Bank Pekao financed green projects totaling 5.1 billion Polish zloty ($1.4 billion), up from 3.7 billion zloty in 2024, aiming to reach 9 billion zloty by the end of 2027.

Along with other banks, Bank Pekao has provided financing for the approximately €6.3 billion construction of the Baltyk 2 and Baltyk 3 wind farms in the Baltic Sea, developed by Polenergia and Equinor. The wind farms have a total capacity of over 1.4 gigawatts and can supply green energy to over 2 million Polish households. The farms should start producing energy in 2027 and reach full operational capacity in 2028.

In 2025, Bank Pekao also helped issue a syndicated €300 million loan to a leading energy company, issued five-year green bonds for a leading telecoms company totaling 700 million zloty, and issued bonds worth 1 billion zloty for sustainable development for a large retail company.

QNB Bank

Best Bank for Blue Bonds (New for 2026)

In October 2024, QNB Bank issued Turkey’s first blue bond, in collaboration with the IFC as the sole investor, for $25 million and a five-year maturity.

The bond is financing nearly all water conservation activities, including wastewater management, boosting sustainable tourism, reducing marine pollution, and enabling sustainable fishing.

The bond was issued under QNB Group’s Sustainable Finance and Product Framework. Late last year, QNB Bank again cooperated with the IFC, alongside the EBRD, to complete a $100 million climate transition bond issue, the first of its kind, focused on financing decarbonization efforts in carbon-intensive sectors such as cement production and steel, which are generally excluded from green bonds because of their high emissions.

This climate transition bond is viewed as a strategic link to green and ESG finance.

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Oil prices fall as Trump floats possible sanctions relief

Mar 10, 2026 Finance Desk

Oil prices fell sharply after US President Donald Trump said on Monday that the war against Iran could be short-lived and that Washington was considering waiving oil-related sanctions on certain countries to ease pressure on crude markets.

“So in some countries, we’re going to take those sanctions off until this straightens out,” Trump told reporters, without naming which countries were under consideration.

The United States currently maintains sanctions affecting oil trade against a small group of countries: Iran, Venezuela, Russia, Syria and North Korea.

Trump also said he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday to discuss the war and other issues.

Oil prices retreated from recent highs, with both WTI crude and Brent futures falling more than 9%. Brent was trading just below $90 during the European morning, while WTI stood at $85.40 a barrel.

Prices had briefly surged to their highest level since 2022, nearing $120 a barrel, a day after Iran’s Assembly of Experts appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader in succession to his late father.

Investors read the appointment as a signal that Tehran was digging in, ten days into the war launched by the United States and Israel.

But prices later fell, and US stocks rose on hopes that the war with Iran may not last much longer.

“We took a little excursion” to the Middle East, “to get rid of some evil. And, I think you’ll see it’s going to be a short-term excursion,” Trump told Republican lawmakers at his golf club near Miami.

However, he left open the possibility of an escalation of fighting if global oil supplies are disrupted by the Islamic Republic, which chose a new hardline supreme leader.

Hours later, Trump posted on social media.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America twenty times harder than they have been hit thus far.”

In an apparent response to Trump’s remarks, Iranian state media reported that Ali Mohammad Naini, a spokesperson for the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, said that “Iran will determine when the war ends”.

Stock markets cheer the news

All major European stock markets opened sharply higher.

The FTSE 100 in London gained more than 1.1%, the CAC 40 in Paris jumped 1.9%, the DAX in Frankfurt rose 2%, benchmark indices in Madrid and Milan were up 2.5%, and the Stoxx 600 gained 1.7%.

Asian shares also rebounded on Tuesday after sharp declines the previous day, as investors wagered the conflict might be short-lived.

Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 added 2.9%, also buoyed by revised government data showing Japan’s economy grew at an annual pace of 1.3% in the final quarter of last year — well above the initial estimate of 0.2%, driven by solid business investment.

South Korea’s Kospi jumped 5.4% and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 gained 1.1%.

“Today is the rebound — obviously [after] positive comments from President Trump overnight. We’re starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel for the war,” said Neil Newman, head of strategy at Astris Advisory Japan.

“Volatility is going to remain with us, but things are certainly looking a lot brighter today.”

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 2.1% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6%.

Share prices have been swinging largely in tandem with oil, which has gyrated as the conflict has deepened.

The central uncertainty for markets is how high crude prices will go and how long they will stay there, given ongoing disruptions to Middle Eastern energy infrastructure.

If oil remains very high for an extended period, households already stretched by inflation could come under severe pressure, while companies would face sharply higher bills for fuel and logistics.

The risk is a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, where growth stagnates and inflation stays elevated.

Attention has focused in particular on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes on a typical day.

Iran has threatened to attack ships sailing through the strait.

If it remains closed for even a few weeks, oil could push to $150 a barrel or higher, according to strategists at Macquarie Research. Trump said separately that he was “thinking about taking it over,” according to CBS.

In bond markets, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to 4.10% from 4.15% late Friday after briefly rising above 4.20% on Monday morning as oil price fears pushed yields higher.

Yields retreated when crude eased later in the day.

In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 157.48 yen from 157.67, while the euro was unchanged at $1.1638.

Gold rose 1.7% to $5,191.8 an ounce. Cryptocurrency markets also gained, with most leading tokens up between 1% and 2%.

Bitcoin outperformed, rising 2.6% to $70,863 according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index.

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EU ministers eye oil reserves to contain energy prices and inflation as Iran war rages

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

EU economy and finance ministers are gathering in Brussels on Monday and Tuesday to discuss how to respond to surging energy prices and anticipated inflation amid the ongoing strikes and counter-strikes in the Middle East.

“We are ready to take necessary and coordinated steps in order to stabilise markets, such as strategic stockpiling,” French Economy Minister Roland Lescure told journalists on Monday after chairing a meeting of G7 finance ministers.

Asked whether G7 finance ministers had agreed on releasing the system’s strategic stockpile, Lescure said: “We are not there yet.”

“What we’ve agreed upon is to use any necessary tools to stabilise the market, including the potential release of necessary stockpiles. The work is going to keep being done in the next couple of days”, the French minister said.

German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil said on Monday that his country is open to unlocking the oil reserve, but that “this is not the right time”.

The International Energy Agency’s member countries currently hold over 1.2 billion barrels of public emergency oil stocks, with a further 600 million barrels of industry stocks held under government obligation.

Oil prices have rocketed since the Israeli and US attacks on Iran on 28 February, which killed some 40 Iranian leaders, including the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The conflict has now expanded into other countries in the region, including Lebanon and Gulf countries, with retaliatory attacks by Iran hitting civilian energy facilities and US bases.

Mojtaba Khamenei, the former Ayatollah’s son, was elected as successor on Monday, providing continuity in leadership for the current regime.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early on Monday, but later traded around $107.80 after the Financial Times indicated that the use of reserve oil to respond to the crisis was on the table.

Leading European stock market indexes started the week with a big sell-off, following a major drop across Asian markets and surging oil prices.

The war is showing no sign of de-escalation. On 4 March, Qatar announced the suspension of its LNG production; then, over the weekend, Israel struck Iranian energy infrastructure while passage through the critical Strait of Hormuz remained suspended.

Energy prices in Europe will be affected, and inflation is likely to rise in the coming months. However, some EU diplomats and the European Commission indicates that the current situation presents significant differences from the energy crisis Europe experienced when the war in Ukraine started in February 2022.

“Thanks to the decisive actions we have taken over the past years, Europe’s energy system is better prepared and way more resilient today. Our energy sources are more diverse and cleaner. Our coordination is stronger,” European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen wrote on X on 6 March.

He called on the bloc to double down on the energy transition and continue to expand clean and homegrown renewable energy and energy efficiency efficients, all while modernising Europe’s energy infrastructure.

Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo told journalists on Monday that the EU should take inspiration from the response to the 2022 crisis as it formulates its response to the war.

A different crisis?

This crisis is also structurally different from the one that exploded in 2022, an EU government official told Euronews.

When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine began, Europe needed an “infrastructure reset” with a new portfolio of suppliers, the official said – whereas in the current case, “the release of reserves and re-opening of routes could see prices going down faster”.

However, the situation remains extremely volatile, as it is highly dependent on when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and when production will resume in top LNG-exporting countries.

Discussions on Monday and Tuesday among EU ministers are expected to touch upon energy prices with the European Commission, while euro-area ministers are set to discuss with the European Central Bank how the war could impact inflation and the overall macroeconomic outlook.

While EU ministers are not expecting to put forward a common strategy on the table by the end of the meetings, the EU institutions will present an update of the situation. Most of the member states will likely present their remarks based on their national assessment of the war’s impact, an EU diplomat told Euronews.

Maria Tadeo contributed reporting.

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Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Latin America

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Latin America | Global Finance Magazine

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Home Awards Award Winners Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: Latin America

This year’s regional winners advanced sustainability by issuing green, blue, social, and transition bonds while funding renewable energy projects across LatAm.

There has been steady progress in Latin America toward a sustainability agenda. Since the region’s first green bond was issued in 2014, over $164 billion has been raised in international markets, according to the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Despite these gains, a $650 billion annual funding gap needs to be closed to meet the UN’s SDGs by 2030. Currently, only 23% of these goals appear likely to be achieved, and the remaining goals are stagnating unless accelerated progress is made.

According to the World Economic Forum, 70% of the region’s electricity is supplied by renewables, including solar, wind, and hydropower. Even so, many economies still export fossil fuels and minerals while importing refined fuels and gas, creating a complex landscape.

The region is also becoming a global leader in blue-finance markets, with prominent Latin American banks issuing some of the largest blue bonds and developing frameworks for blue loans, both of which fund clean water and sanitation projects. To enhance the blue economy within the region, the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean plans to invest $2.5 billion in the blue economy through 2030 to boost conservation efforts and encourage economic growth.

Many of this year’s winning banks work with clients to support the transition to clean energy. In this spirit, these banks continue to innovate as Latin America becomes a more sustainable region.

BTG Pactual

Best Bank for Sustainable Finance

Sustainable Finance Deal of the Year: EcoRioMinas – Green Transition Bonds

Best Bank for Sustainability Transparency

Brazilian-based BTG Pactual is one of the more innovative banks within the sustainable-finance market. In 2020, the bank committed to a tenfold increase in the volume of ESG bonds issued by 2025 and achieved this goal in 2023. Despite high interest rates and corporations revisiting ESG strategies, BTG Pactual structured about $2 billion in eight labeled green, blue, sustainability, and green transition bonds.

Brazil’s infrastructure is increasingly challenged to demonstrate measurable climate commitments, and the rapidly evolving transition-finance market advances credible long-term decarbonization strategies into reality while providing investors with transparency and accountability regarding emissions. BTG Pactual worked with EcoRioMinas to structure one of the first green transition bonds in Brazil.

This 540 million Brazilian real (about $104.4 million) issuance finances transition-oriented projects, like renewable-energy facilities, LED lighting systems, paving-material reuse, and reforestation and landscape restoration initiatives. This transaction addresses a highway’s environmental footprint by expanding energy efficiency and reusing existing resources to reduce consumption.

BTG Pactual also raised 542 million reais for an impact-investing fund for private equity investments in SMEs. The bank launched an ESG bond fund and intends to raise $100 million that will be dedicated to sustainable finance. BTG was also selected to manage the Espírito Santo Decarbonization Fund seeded with 500 million reais from Brazil’s sovereign fund to finance low-carbon projects.

BancoEstado

Best Impact Investing Solution

Best Bank for Sustaining Communities

BancoEstado aims to generate long-term value and help advance Chilean commitments on climate change. Specifically, the bank is working toward net-zero by 2030 for operational emissions and by 2050 for financed emissions.

The bank empowers citizens through its Social Leaders Academy, which provides training to leaders so they can teach communities how to access housing and support microentrepreneurs. This educational model improves living standards throughout Chile by strengthening the right to adequate housing.

BancoEstado’s Impacto Verde initiative promotes inclusive economic development by connecting MSMEs with large corporations. These relationships ultimately bolster Chile’s business ecosystem by strengthening supply chain standards and expanding MSMEs’ access to banking services. The program also promotes shared growth between corporations and MSMEs and offers startups tailored products and services better suited to small businesses.

In its work to sustain communities, the bank has provided financing for infrastructure through transition- and sustainability-linked products. These products have financed electric buses for new public transportation fleets and nonconventional renewable-energy plants, for example. These ESG loans are aimed at companies that measure socioenvironmental factors, and the loan rate is adjusted based on compliance with these indicators. These factors focus primarily on reducing water use and greenhouse gas emissions.

Itau BBA

Best Bank for Sustainable Infrastructure/Project Finance

Best Bank for Blue Bonds

Best Bank for Transition/Sustainability-Linked Loans

Itau BBA recently published its new ESG strategy anchored in climate transition, diversity, development, and sustainable finance. The bank set a new goal in 2024 to mobilize 1 trillion reais in sustainable finance by December 2030. This is aligned with the green taxonomy of the Federation of Brazilian Banks, Febraban, and integrates internal ESG criteria and leading international frameworks.

The bank partnered with Bracell, a global producer of specialty cellulose, in a sustainability-linked loan with targets that must be met by 2030 or a financial penalty will be applied. These targets include a 28% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, a 19.3% reduction in water usage, and an 81.8% reduction in landfill waste. This loan helps Bracell meet broader commitments to reduce its carbon footprint, increase operational efficiency with cleaner technologies, and support biodiversity. This partnership works to highlight an initiative to foster industrial practices that drive economic growth while contributing to environmental preservation.

The bank also acted as joint bookrunner on Aegea’s $750 million blue bond issuance, one of the largest in the international market. The funds are earmarked for infrastructure for water supply, sewage collection, and protection for marine ecosystems. This transaction aims to provide access to water for 99% and sewage systems for 90% of the population by 2033.

Bradesco BBI

Best Bank for Green Bonds

Best Bank for Sustainability Bonds

IBradesco BBI has been recognized for its diversity, respect and racial equality. The bank initially set a goal to mobilize 250 billion reais in sustainable finance by 2025 and has since increased that goal to 350 billion reais over the same period. This was achieved in September 2025. During the year, the bank completed 17 ESG transactions that included nine green bonds, two social bonds, and five sustainability bonds.

Bradesco has also worked to establish innovative programs, like the Eco Invest Program that is led by the Brazilian National Treasury and aims to attract foreign investment for the country’s ecological transformation projects. The bank and the power utility Neoenergia, Iberdrola’s Brazilian subsidiary, completed one of the first green bond issuances under this program, raising 1 billion reais in transactions. The proceeds will be used to modernize the power infrastructure within Brazil.

This work will include installing smart grids; burying lines underground to protect them from climate risk; and upgrading substations, transmission lines, and distribution networks. Re.green secured 80 million reais from Brazil’s Climate Fund in a landmark biodiversity-labeled transaction in which Bradesco provided a guarantee letter and ESG advisory services. Re.green is focused on restoration efforts that boost an ecosystem’s recovery when that area has been damaged, destroyed, or degraded. These funds will be used to reforest 15,000 hectares in priority areas.

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G7 ‘not there yet’ on releasing oil reserves as Iran war drives price surge

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

By Quirino Mealha with AP

Published on 09/03/2026 – 17:06 GMT+1•Updated
17:14

G7 finance ministers discussed a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves on Monday but failed to reach agreement, with France’s Roland Lescure saying the group was “not there yet” on a deal.

The G7 was exploring a coordinated release of emergency oil reserves to tamp down fears of an impending shortage but stopped short of a deal.

Japan’s finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said the International Energy Agency (IEA) explicitly requested the coordinated release during the G7 meeting, according to Bloomberg.

Brent crude briefly hit $119.50 a barrel on Monday morning, its highest level since 2022, having jumped roughly 25% since Friday as the Iran war intensified, raising fears over global production and shipping.

At the time of writing, oil prices pared gains and are trading slightly below $100 a barrel, as markets remain highly volatile.

Stock markets fell worldwide on concerns the global economy would not be able to absorb a sustained oil price shock.

Equity markets drop over uncertainty

At the open on Monday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, coming off its worst week since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.5% and the Nasdaq composite 1.2% lower.

The most immediate pain on Wall Street is hitting companies with large fuel bills. Carnival lost 7.3%, United Airlines sank 6.9% and Old Dominion Freight fell 3.8%.

Retailers dependent on long-haul shipping, whose customers are also facing higher petrol costs, also struggled. Best Buy fell 4.4% and Williams-Sonoma dropped 4%.

The moves followed steeper losses in European and Asian markets, where economies are more exposed to imported oil and gas. South Korea’s Kospi sank 6%, Japan’s Nikkei 225 dropped 5.2% and Europe’s Euro Stoxx 50 tumbled 1%.

Potential stagflation scenario

Since the war with Iran began, the central worry for financial markets has been how high oil prices will go and how long they will stay there.

If prices stay very high for very long, household budgets already stretched by high inflation could break under the pressure.

Meanwhile, companies would see their own bills jump for key items such as fuel and stock items, as well as for powering their data centres.

It all raises the possibility of a worst-case scenario for the global economy: stagflation, or a period when economic growth stagnates and inflation remains persistently high.

Late on Sunday, President Donald Trump countered this narrative by assuring that high oil prices at the moment are both worth the cost and only temporary.

“Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and world, safety and peace,” he said in a post on Truth Social.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury held at 4.15%, where it ended Friday.

Worries about high inflation and oil prices are applying upward pressure on Treasury yields, while risks of a slowing economy are pulling in the opposite direction.

Concerns about stagflation deepened on Friday following a surprisingly weak US jobs report showing that employers cut more jobs last month than they added.

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Sustainable Finance Awards 2026: North America

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

North American sustainable-finance issuance suffered due to ESG backlash and regulatory tensions, but Canada remained resilient and adaptation finance emerged.

Last year, sustainable-finance issuance in North America fell off a cliff.

According to Moody’s, issuance fell from 2024’s $124 billion to $67 billion—a far cry from the 2021 peak of $175 billion. Almost all the drop was attributable to the US, where prominent banks followed the six big players that withdrew from the UN-convened Net-Zero Banking Alliance beginning in December 2024. This reflects ongoing polarization and growing political scrutiny of ESG, as well as banks shifting focus to areas such as energy security. The sharp drop in ESG issuance was reflected in the paucity of North American entries Global Finance received for this year’s Sustainable Finance Awards.

The pattern looks set to continue into 2026 as the ESG pushback persists. Sustainable Fitch, a Fitch Solutions company, says, “We expect investors to continue to face challenges navigating the North American ESG regulatory environment as diverging pressures persist between state and federal requirements in the US.”

The one bright spot is Canada—admittedly a much smaller player than the US—where leading banks continue to prioritize ESG and increase issuance. “There may be some momentum in late 2026 as Canada finalizes its new green and transition taxonomy,” Sustainable Fitch forecasts.

Generally, the group anticipates that adaptation finance will be a major growth driver “as global attention shifts from mitigation to resilience amid increasingly frequent and severe extreme-weather events, shaping investment strategies and policy frameworks.” Meanwhile, multinational asset management company Schroders anticipates “an increased emphasis on demonstrating the returns and value of sustainability efforts.”

Best Bank for Sustainable Finance

Circular Economy Commitment

Best Bank for Sustaining Communities

Best Bank for Sustainability Transparency

Best Bank for Blue Bonds (New for 2026)

Best Bank for Sustainability Bonds

Scotiabank

Scotiabank’s deep and extensive commitment to sustainable finance made it an obvious winner of the above eight awards.

In just one of the bank’s circular-economy projects, Scotiabank served as green-loan structuring agent for Diaco’s inaugural green loan. Diaco is a key player in Colombia’s steel industry, and its business model is built on the circularity of steel, extending environmental, economic, and social value throughout the product life cycle.

For blue bonds, Scotiabank helped the Mexican government to issue a blue bond that provides funding for sustainable fishing and aquaculture. Mexico’s fishing industry is one of the largest in the world, making the protection of its coastlines and waterways key. This blue bond, issued in December 2024, amounts to 4.5 billion Mexican pesos (about US$218 million).

In terms of sustainability transparency, the bank says, “We are committed, through our annual Sustainability Report and Public Accountability Statement, to present our activity and performance on environment, social and governance topics that we believe matter to our stakeholders.” Scotiabank releases an annual Sustainability Report and an annual Climate Report, which, since 2026, has been part of the Sustainability Report.

In 2021, as part of its commitment to sustaining communities, the bank launched the ScotiaRISE initiative, a 10-year 500 million Canadian dollar (about US$364.8 million ) community-investment program to strengthen economic resilience. Between 2021 and 2025, the program invested more than CA$210 million across 300 organizations. It also launched the Scotiabank Women Initiative, which it says “aims to help women clients increase their economic and professional opportunities and succeed on their own terms as they grow their businesses, advance their careers and invest in their futures.”

Sustainable Finance Deal of the Year: Nautilus Solar Energy Long-Term Debt Facility

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC) closed a $275 million long-term debt facility with Nautilus Solar Energy. This financing enables the development of more than 25 community solar projects across five states (Illinois, Maryland, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island).

The projects add more than 130 MW of renewable capacity to local power grids, delivering clean, affordable energy to more than 11,000 households and small businesses. This expansion boosts Nautilus Solar’s operating and managed portfolio to 700 MW and paves the way for future debt issuances together.

SMBC continues to be a leader in sustainable finance and says, “This transaction is an achievement that reflects both SMBC’s and Nautilus’ deep commitment to sustainability and innovation, making it a standout candidate for recognition in the renewable-energy sector,” adding that it is “a transformative milestone in advancing clean energy access across the United States.”

Best Platform/Technology Facilitating Sustainable Finance

Best Bank for Green Bonds

Best Bank for Transition/Sustainability-Linked Loans

CIBC Capital Markets

In a field where jargon and complexity are commonplace and can inhibit issuance and business growth, CIBC’s Sustainability Issuance Framework, unveiled in March 2024, clearly outlines the eligible issuance categories. It defines 16 distinct areas eligible for bonds and loans, including clean energy and clean fuels (nuclear power is included here, with CIBC the only Canadian bank to do so), pollution prevention and control, green buildings, the promotion of biodiversity, circularity, and affordable housing.

This comprehensive platform has helped CIBC Capital Markets raise US$199.4 billion toward its 2030 target by the end of last year. CIBC has been involved in 303 projects across solar, wind, and green buildings. It has also helped CIBC Capital Markets become a leader in green bonds, issuing its first, for US$500 million, in 2020, and another in January 2024 for €500 million in euro-denominated bonds with a three-year maturity.

In Barbados, CIBC Capital Markets served as sustainability structuring agent alongside CIBC Caribbean, which acted as lead arranger, in one of the first sovereign sustainability loans in the Caribbean.

These roles are part of a broader strategy to mobilize US$300 billion in sustainable-finance projects by 2030.

Best Bank for Sustainable Infrastructure/Project Finance

Societe Generale

As part of its broader sustainability strategy, Societe Generale has focused on sustainability-linked infrastructure and projects, demonstrating the emphasis in 2025. It acted as joint lead arranger of a $424 million green-loan project financing for International Transport Service (ITS), a terminal operator in Long Beach, California.

ITS operates in the San Pedro Bay harbor, the primary gateway for North American trans-Pacific trade and the main US destination for Asian imports. Societe Generale has served as green loan coordinator to advance the University of Iowa’s ESG strategy (€671 million). Last year, the bank was involved in debt financing (for $210 million) of a voluntary carbon-removal afforestation project with Chestnut Carbon, a nature-based carbon-removal entity.

The financing will enable Chestnut to construct Project Megaton, a reforestation/decarbonization project covering some 67,000 acres in the southeastern US.

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Nordea’s Juho Maalahti: Strengthening Transparency And Alignment

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

Juho Maalahti, head of Sustainable Finance Advisory at Nordea—this year’s Best Bank for Sustainability Transparency in Western Europe—discusses the next phase of sustainable finance and the impact of regulatory uncertainty.

Global Finance: What do you expect will be the biggest challenge for the sustainability market in 2026?

Juho Maalahti: While global ESG headwinds created some volatility in the sustainability market during 2025, we found that these were mostly reflected in headlines rather than in underlying market sentiment. What was particularly encouraging was seeing Nordic companies and institutions maintain their approach to sustainability despite the regulatory uncertainty that characterized much of the last year.

The fundamental need for a transition to a more resilient and sustainable economy has not disappeared. Looking ahead in 2026, we see a market where the real-economy transition continues to advance on multiple fronts, from critical infrastructure to industrial decarbonization investments. Rather than focusing on just one challenge, the key will be addressing all these areas while maintaining momentum.

GF: What are you seeing as the next “evolution” of KPIs?

Maalahti: Transparency and simplification are important factors for scaling the market further, and we’ve seen consolidation in KPI-linked facilities over the past few years. Companies are increasingly moving toward harmonization between their public non-financial reporting and financing arrangements.

We see sustainability as a natural part of Nordic DNA, and many Nordic companies—especially the large ones—have a long history in sustainability, coupled with targets to reduce climate emissions. Consistency in reporting—whether to financiers, investors, or the public—is important for transparency and market growth. We see companies wanting to ensure their sustainability metrics are aligned across different use cases.

GF: How resilient is investor demand for sustainable assets if rates stay high or politics turn? And what does that mean for issuance timing and terms?

Maalahti: Despite market volatility and uncertainty in 2025, we continued to see green bonds attracting slightly higher order books compared to conventional bonds, especially in the euro market. This demonstrates that investor appetite for sustainable assets has remained resilient even in challenging conditions.

We continue to provide financing and solutions that support our clients’ investment goals. While political and economic headwinds may create short-term volatility, the underlying demand for sustainable investments appears to be holding firm.

GF: Which risks related to sustainability will most affect company balance sheets over the near term? And what should CFOs tackle first in response?

Maalahti: While there has been uncertainty around the regulatory landscape recently, climate risks have not disappeared and continue to pose real threats to company balance sheets. We have developed our own maturity ladder concept to evaluate our customers’ climate transition plans, which helps us better understand how our customers are adapting their business models and strategies to the shift toward a low-carbon economy.

Rather than waiting for regulatory clarity, companies should focus on developing robust transition plans that address both physical and transition risks. One of our 2025 KPIs was to have 90% of our lending exposure in climate-vulnerable sectors covered by transition plans, reflecting the importance we place on proactive risk management in this area.

GF: What’s your bar for calling financing sustainable, and how do you prevent label inflation as the market grows?

Maalahti: Much of market growth, especially during the pre-Covid period, was attributable to new labels being introduced. Since then, we’ve seen harmonization and increased scalability as the market has matured. As a European bank, we adhere to global standards and European regulations. We set ourselves a target to facilitate more than €200 billion of sustainable finance by 2025, and we well exceeded that target. This achievement reflects our commitment to maintaining rigorous standards while scaling our sustainable finance offerings.

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European markets dip as oil prices soar and European gas prices jump

Mar 9, 2026 Finance Desk

European stock markets were all in negative territory on Monday morning after weak sentiment in Asian markets, where Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index plunged more than 5% and Taiwan’s benchmark fell 4.4%.

Other Asian markets also tumbled after oil prices soared to nearly $120 a barrel, casting a shadow over economies heavily dependent on imported crude and gas from the region.

In Europe, London’s FTSE 100 was down 1.6%, while Frankfurt’s DAX, Paris’s CAC 40 and Milan’s FTSE MIB were all down more than 2.4%, as of 09:30 CET. Madrid’s IBEX 35 fell nearly 2.7%, and the pan-European Stoxx 600 lost about 2%.

While rising oil and gas prices are threatening Europe’s economic outlook this year, trading sentiment was further impacted on Monday by worse-than-expected data from Germany.

German industrial production and factory orders both fell at the start of the year. Output decreased by 0.5% in January following a revised 1% decline the previous month, the statistics office said on Monday.

Meanwhile, investor expectations are rising that the European Central Bank could raise benchmark interest rates this year, as soaring energy prices fuel fears that inflation may surge.

The panic in the stock market unfolded as oil prices became the main focus for investors.

Oil prices soaring

Oil prices rocketed higher as both sides in the Iran conflict struck new targets over the weekend, including civilian infrastructure. The war, now in its second week, involves regions critical to the production and transport of oil and gas from the Persian Gulf.

Prices moderated after the Financial Times reported that some members of the Group of Seven (G7) were considering releasing strategic oil reserves to ease pressure on markets. The unconfirmed report cited unnamed sources familiar with the discussions.

Oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel before falling back on Monday as the conflict intensified, threatening production and shipping in the Middle East and rattling global financial markets.

The price for a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged to $119.50 early in the day but later traded around $107.80.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, spiked to $119.48 per barrel but fell back to around $103 by the European market open.

Strikes on Iranian oil facilities risk increasing pressure on an already tight global energy market, analysts warned. Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter, said “Iran accounts for roughly 4% of global oil supply, and around 90% of its exports are directed to China.”

The world’s second-largest economy has vast reserves, but analysts say any prolonged damage to Iran’s export capacity could weigh on its economic recovery and eventually affect global markets.

James also warned that attacks on shipping and energy infrastructure in the Gulf risk escalating tensions and unsettling markets that had initially expected the conflict to be resolved quickly.

After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz linked to the conflict, the European gas market is also under pressure. Natural gas futures jumped more than 14% on Monday to above €61 per megawatt-hour, nearing their highest level in three years and extending last week’s 67% surge.

Several major producers in the region have cut back output, and Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility — the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant — was shut down last week.

Russia has also warned it could halt natural gas exports to Europe, adding to market anxiety.

At the same time, Europe’s gas reserves remain low, with EU storage levels below 30% and requiring refilling.

Early Monday, the US dollar, which retains its status as a safe-haven asset, gained against other major currencies. It was trading at 158.46 Japanese yen, up from 158.09 late Friday. The euro rose slightly to $1.1558 from $1.1556.

In other trading, gold prices were down more than 1% on Monday morning in Europe, trading around $5,100, while cryptocurrencies were mostly higher. One bitcoin traded at $67,774, up 0.7%.

IMF: ‘Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it’

As fears grow over how long the war could last — and with Asian markets, often seen as engines of global growth, under heavy pressure — International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned that policymakers must prepare for the “unthinkable.”

“If the new conflict proves prolonged, it has clear and obvious potential to affect market sentiment, growth, and inflation, placing new demands on policymakers,” Georgieva said in a keynote speech at a symposium in Tokyo on Monday.

She reminded her audience that, as a rule of thumb, every 10% increase in oil prices — if sustained through most of the year — could raise global headline inflation by about 40 basis points and reduce global output by 0.1–0.2%.

“And if, as we all hope, the conflict ends soon, then be sure that, before long, some new shock will come. My advice to policymakers everywhere in this new global environment? Think of the unthinkable and prepare for it,” she added.

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Are Gen Z’s Recession Concerns Valid?

Mar 8, 2026 Finance Desk

Key Takeaways

Gen Z views music and fashion trends as economic recession indicators.
Traditional economic indicators show no current signs of a recession.
Gen Z uses social media to discuss economic theories.
The U.S. has not been declared in a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Generation Z is using social media to voice concerns about a potential U.S. recession, drawing attention to signs they believe are indicators of economic stress: from Lady Gaga’s newest album to 2000s-style low-rise jeans. Is this an exaggerated response to uncertainty, or is Gen Z tapped into early economic warning signs that might typically go unnoticed?

While it can be tempting to get sucked into these theories, ultimately, experts and data suggest that these are unreliable indicators and that a recession is not looming. Here’s what to know.

Insights from Gen Z on Economic Trends

Generation Z is interpreting the return of 2000s trends as indicators of an impending recession. The resurgence of fashion styles such as low-rise jeans, cheetah print, and rhinestone apparel parallels the cultural trends leading up to the 2008 Great Recession. In turn, Gen Z is concluding that these are warning signs of a similar time period, rather than turning to actual economic data and expert analysis.

Music is another way Gen Z is interpreting recession indicators. For instance, Lady Gaga’s latest album has led TikTok users to comment on how the country is heading toward economic turmoil due to the album’s similarity to her pre-recession era music. Newer artists, such as Chappell Roan, are also sparking commentary on the resemblance of 2000s-styled music, reinforcing this theory.

Important

Social media plays a primary role in spreading Gen Z’s economic theories. For example, Gen Z has started incorporating these discussions in trending TikTok formats, such as “Get Ready with Me”-styled videos.

Economic Data Analysis: Understanding the Trends

So, is there any merit to what Gen Z sees as cultural cues to a souring economy? Established economic indicators suggest no. Traditionally, economists look at gross domestic product (GDP), unemployment rates, and the stock market to gauge recession risk. Let’s break down where each of these stands.

GDP

Government data reports that GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Increases in consumer spending and investment contributed to the GDP increase. For a recession to start, there needs to be an increase in the unemployment rate and a decrease in GDP for two consecutive quarters.

J.P. Morgan anticipated a 0.25% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second half of 2025. Based on their data, they estimated that the probability of a recession has decreased from 60% to 40% due to a reduction in tariffs on China by the United States.

Unemployment Rates

Economists and policymakers use the Sahm rule to identify if there is a recession, as described by the U.S. Congress. The rule signals a recession if “the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to its low in the previous 12 months.”

Unemployment rates are currently at 4.4%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For comparison, the unemployment rate before the 2008 recession was 5%. Thus, the rule has not been triggered, indicating that there is no recession, though it remains a useful early indicator of a potential recession.

Important

The National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared the U.S. to be in a recession.

Stock Market

The Dow was down 1% on March 6, 2026. This downturn, however, appears to reflect a weak jobs report and oil futures amid war rather than signal an impending recession. For reference, the Dow declined 7% on Sept. 29, 2008.

The Bottom Line

Gen Z’s recession indicators, such as music and fashion, may be persuasive, but their concerns do not reflect actual trends. While the pressures of federal layoffs and tariff tensions persist, most traditional indicators signal a moderately stable environment and do not suggest the country is in a recession.

Ultimately, while Gen Z’s recession interpretations may not be reliable, they do highlight a cultural shift in how younger generations understand the economy, relying on cultural cues rather than traditional data.

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MONEY

Trump Urges Latin American Leaders to Use Force Against Cartels

Mar 7, 2026 Finance Desk

(Bloomberg) — President Donald Trump told a group of Latin American leaders that they need to work with the US to target drug trafficking cartels as he sought to bolster US leadership in the region. Read More

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French blockade looms over Commission’s plan to fast-track trade deals in English

Mar 7, 2026 Finance Desk

Published on
07/03/2026 – 8:00 GMT+1

France will push back against a European Commission plan to fast-track ratification of trade agreements by circulating only English-language versions during talks with EU governments and lawmakers, skipping translation into the bloc’s 24 official languages, according to several sources.

The slow ratification of the contentious EU–Mercosur trade deal has frustrated the Commission, which wants to accelerate negotiations and bring deals into force more quickly as it seeks new markets amid rising geopolitical tensions.

Translating the agreements into every official EU language can take months due to the legal scrubbing required before the ratification process begins. The EU executive has confirmed to Euronews that trade chief Maroš Šefčovič told EU trade ministers in February that the trade deal with India concluded on 27 January could serve as a test case for using English as the main language during ratification.

“We lost almost €300 billion by not having the Mercosur agreement in place since 2021, if it comes to the GDP, and more than €200 billion in export opportunities,” Šefčovič told journalists after meeting ministers on 20 February, adding that once negotiations end it can take up to 2.5 years before businesses can operate in partner countries.

“In today’s world, we cannot simply lose the time,” he said.

Šefčovič said the Commission would ensure the agreements are translated into all 24 official EU languages once published in the Official Journal, i.e. after ratification. He added the proposal was backed by at least seven member states at the meeting, though not all countries had time to speak.

French sources who spoke to Euronews were insistent that Paris would vigorously oppose the move to English-only agreements if necessary.

“As a matter of principle, we defend the use of all the languages of the Union, and in particular French, which is one of the EU’s working languages,” one official told Euronews.

‘Transparency, precision and understanding’

Language policy in the bloc’s institutions remains politically sensitive for countries such as France, whose language has declined sharply over the past decades as English massively dominates daily work in the European Union institutions – despite French, German and English being the three working languages.

“Switching entirely to English raises a legal and democratic issue, and the Commission is well aware of it,” an EU diplomat told Euronews.

On its website, the European Commission says linguistic diversity is essential and that the EU promotes multilingualism in its institutional work.

The bloc once even had a commissioner dedicated to multilingualism, though the portfolio was gradually merged with others and eventually disappeared.

“I have the impression that in some cases the Commission seizes the opportunity to push the idea that English has a superior status, and that the other official languages are translation languages that can come later,” Michele Gazzola, expert in language policy, said.

He added that relying only on English during ratification could pose problems for members of the European Parliament, and even more so if national parliaments are involved.

“It’s a matter of transparency, precision and understanding.”

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GCC Mulls Action Over Iranian Attacks

Mar 6, 2026 Finance Desk

At least 10 people have died, and more than 100 have been injured, after Iran launched barrages of missile and drone attacks against every member of the GCC in retaliation for US-Israeli strikes on Tehran.

Until February 28, few in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) could have imagined missiles flying overhead, let alone crashing into the glass facades of five-star hotels. For decades, cities such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha had been marketed as luxurious, safe havens—business and financial hubs seemingly shielded from the harshness of the desert and regional geopolitical turbulence, thanks to vast petrodollar wealth.

Recent attacks have punctured that sense of invulnerability.

The economic implications remain uncertain, but the US-Iran war marks a clear turning point. With much of the region still on high alert, business activity has begun to slow down and investors are reassessing risk. In January, the World Bank projected 4.4% growth for GCC countries this year. On March 2, however, JPMorgan cut its non-oil growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points.

“Businesses shift quickly into contingency mode: staff safety, operational coverage, supply, and cash-flow discipline,” says Abdulaziz Al-Anjeri, Founder & CEO, Reconnaissance Research in Kuwait. “You also see immediate attention to the ‘price of risk’—airspace and logistics friction quickly translate into higher war-risk premiums, insurance costs, and delayed decisions. The strongest response is quiet competence—keeping the lights on without drama”

Even in the most remote areas of the GCC feel the effects of the crisis. In Khasab, the last Oman town on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz and a popular tourist destination for outdoor activities, Ali Al Shuaili runs a diving center.

“Everything is normal, but the sea is closed so we can’t go fishing or diving and, of course, all tourist bookings have been cancelled,” he tells Global Finance via WhatsApp. “Life-wise, it looks normal, but everybody is worried about the business. We pray for everything to settle down quickly.”

For now, banks in the region are absorbing the shock, supported by strong liquidity and capital buffers.

“We are not seeing any direct impact on banking operations in the UAE or the wider GCC,” says Bader Al Sarraf, Research Analyst at Standard Chartered’s UAE office. “Financial institutions across the region continue to operate normally, supported by strong infrastructure, resilient financial systems, and established operational resilience frameworks that enable banks to continue facilitating transactions and supporting business activity even during periods of heightened uncertainty.”

Banks and major institutions focus first on continuity— keeping core functions stable: payments, customer access, liquidity management, and clear reassurance, adds An-Anjeri. “In moments like this, finance is not only about balance sheets; it’s also about maintaining confidence, because uncertainty can do damage even without physical disruption.”

Across the region, the prevailing approach among institutions, corporates, and investors is to monitor developments rather than take immediate action, according to Al-Sarraf.

“Given that the situation remains fluid and still in its early stages, many are in a ‘digest and risk assessment’ phase before making strategic decisions,” he says. “This reflects a period of careful observation as developments continue to unfold and as businesses and investors evaluate the potential implications across sectors and economic activity.”

One immediate concern is digital infrastructure. The Gulf has spent years positioning itself as a regional hub for data centers, but the conflict has exposed its vulnerability. Amazon Web Services reported that drones attacked three of its facilities in the UAE and Bahrain, disrupting cloud and IT services across the region. In the UAE, several bank customers briefly lost access to their online accounts. Such incidents could prompt US tech giants, including Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Oracle, all of which have invested heavily in Gulf data infrastructure, to reassess their exposure.

Weaknesses Exposed

The war has highlighted structural weaknesses in the region’s economic model. Despite years of diversification efforts, most GCC economies still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.

QatarEnergy, the world’s largest liquified natural gas (LNG) producer, halted production afte drones hit two of its facilities. Oil exports are also affected. Saudi Arabia partially shut the Ras Tanura refinery, one of the largest in the Middle East, with a capacity of 550,000 barrels a day.

Now, all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world’s hydrocarbon supply transits. For GCC economies, the disruption translates into billions of dollars in daily revenue at risk.

“If the war drags on, you can get a mixed picture: energy revenues may benefit from risk pricing, while the broader economy pays through confidence, logistics, insurance, and financing costs,” says Reconnaissance Research’s An-Anjeri. “Non-oil sectors tend to feel prolonged uncertainty first because they’re confidence-sensitive—services, travel, retail, private investment. GCC states have buffers, but buffers don’t replace stability.”

Another major concern is food security: The region relies overwhelmingly on imports to feed its population, with roughly 70% of food shipments arriving through the Strait of Hormuz. The system has faced stress tests before—during the Covid-19 pandemic, for instance, and in 2017 when several GCC countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, imposed an embargo on Qatar. At the time, Doha imported around 90% of its food. Since then, the country has invested heavily in domestic production and is now self-sufficient in milk, but it still depends on imports for much of the rest.

Water security may be an even more critical vulnerability. Nearly 90% of drinking water in GCC countries comes from desalination plants. Any disruption, whether from direct damage or oil spills affecting coastal facilities, could quickly trigger a humanitarian crisis within days.

For now, most governments and businesses are in a wait-and-see mode. But as the conflict widens, including in Lebanon and, to a lesser extent, towards Cyprus and Turkey… longer-term scenarios are beginning to enter boardroom discussions.

“In the short run, if the war ends quickly, I don’t think there will be any significant impact on the banks, but if the conflict extends over weeks and if the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be even temporarily interrupted, eventually this will definitely affect GCC economies, government revenues, and trade flows,” notes Beirut-based Ali Awdeh, head of research at the Union of Arab banks.

For Al-Anjeri, the situation evolves, a number of lessons are already emerging: “For institutions, the takeaway is to treat stress-testing as real: cyber scenarios, telecom dependencies, liquidity access, supply-chain choke points, and customer-communication playbooks that are ready before the crisis—not written during it,” he says. “Hardware matters, but crisis governance matters too: credible communication, continuity discipline, and de-escalation channels so one incident doesn’t trigger a chain reaction.”

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