Yemeni

Sanaa, Yemen – The United Nations-recognised Yemeni government and the Houthi group have been using warplanes, missiles, drones and other weapons as they engage in intense fighting on multiple fronts in the country’s north, west and central regions.

At least 194 people have been killed and 880 others wounded in the past two weeks of fighting in parts of Taiz, the western coast, al-Jawf, Marib and Dhalea, according to aid agencies.

Iran-backed Houthis, also known as Ansar Allah (supporters of God), have intensified attacks on the coastal district of al-Makha (Mocha) located on the western coast, among others, to gain a foothold in the Red Sea – a vital shipping lane.

On the other hand, government forces have been battling to expand in Taiz and boost their control of Marib, an oil-producing region in the north.

Fighting has also been raging in the al-Jawf governorate bordering Saudi Arabia and Dhalea, which connects the Houthi-controlled north to the country’s south under the internationally recognised government.

Experts say gains or losses on any of these strategically important fronts could have significant consequences for either side.

Taiz and western coast fronts

“The hills and mountainous areas of Taiz and the western coast are key targets for the Houthis, who have repeatedly attempted to advance there,” Yazeed al-Jeddawy, the research manager at the Sanaa Center for Strategic Studies, said.

“The Houthis are trying to seize commanding terrains, cut supply routes between the coastal Mocha district and Taiz, and prevent government troops on the western coast from linking up with the Taiz Military Axis,” said al-Jeddawy.

In Taiz and along the western coast, al-Jeddawy says, the immediate contest is over the heights and roads connecting Taiz to al-Makha.

Situated roughly 60km (37 miles) from the Bab al-Mandeb strait, al-Makha enjoys a highly strategic position on the Red Sea. For a month now, the Houthis have launched missile and drone attacks on the city, causing massive damage to its port facilities and killing and injuring several civilians.

Recently, the group has also attempted to extend its ground operations towards al-Makha city.

“The Houthis seem intent on tightening their hold around [al-Makha] and moving closer to the Dhubab–Bab al-Mandeb area. A substantial advance would strengthen their position near the southern entrance to the Red Sea and give them greater leverage over international shipping,” he added.

Fuad Mussed, a Yemeni political analyst and author, told Al Jazeera that the strategic importance of the western coast and Taiz fronts stems from their proximity to Bab al-Mandeb, a chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and one of the world’s most important shipping routes.

“The Houthis seek to move closer to this vital waterway to threaten maritime traffic. Such a move aims to keep the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb under the influence of Iran and use them as leverage against regional and international powers. This is a strategy Tehran has been pursuing for years,” Mussed said.

Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a global oil chokepoint, to use it as leverage in the war against the United States. It has also warned that its allies could shut shipping via Bab al-Mandeb. Iran also attacked Saudi Arabia’s pipeline used to export oil from the Red Sea.

In July, the Houthis declared a blockade against Saudi vessels transiting through the Red Sea – an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz.

Marib and al-Jawf fronts

Over the past few weeks, pro-government forces have attacked Houthi-held territories in Marib and al-Jawf, facing further retaliation from the Houthis.

Saddam al-Huraibi, a Yemeni political commentator, said the Marib front is fateful for both sides.

“Marib is a government stronghold in north Yemen. So, a Houthi expansion in Marib would threaten government presence and weaken its leverage in the north. That is why pro-government troops are ready to fight tooth and nail on this front line,” al-Huraibi told Al Jazeera.

For the Houthis, the takeover of Marib will deepen the group’s authority and step towards controlling the oil and gas infrastructure. The Iran-backed group captured vast swaths of northern Yemen, including the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, but Marib has remained in government hands since.

“Dominating Marib’s oil and gas resources has been a Houthi goal for over a decade. Without facing a crushing defeat in Marib, they would keep fighting to achieve that goal,” al-Huraibi said.

Adjacent to Marib, al-Jawf is also a hub of tense fighting between the Houthis and government forces. A government gain there would lay the groundwork for further advances, while a strong Houthi defence could undermine government forces’ morale and prompt them to retreat.

“Government-aligned forces have lately focused much of their offensive effort on al-Jawf. Government gains in al-Jawf would ease the threat to Marib while requiring the Houthis to defend a much broader area,” al-Huraibi said.

Al-Jeddawy said government gains could open routes towards the north – Saada, Amran or Houthi positions north of Marib.

The Houthis have carried out attacks in Saudi Arabia, including energy facilities in the country’s south. They have also accused Saudi Arabia of launching multiple attacks in al-Jawf, al-Bayda, Marib and Taiz provinces in support of government forces.

The Dhalea front

Fighting on the Dhalea front, a strategic gateway between Houthi-held territory and the southern governorates, has intensified in recent weeks.

Fighting there did not fully stop during the relative calm, which began in April 2022 following the UN-brokered ceasefire.

A Houthi advance there could open a route for their fighters to reach other southern territories. On the other hand, a Houthi setback would encourage government forces to push towards Ibb, controlled by the group.

“[Houthi] advances in Dhalea could expose the southern hinterland, while [government advances] could threaten Houthi positions and supply routes towards Ibb, al-Bayda and, farther north, Sanaa,” al-Jeddawy noted.

With the escalating fighting, the Houthis face pressure on several fronts, but the group has been readying for a range of scenarios, Khaled Ghorab, a pro-Houthi general, said.

“The [Houthi] Yemeni armed forces were never caught off guard by the prospect of escalation; rather, they worked to build and develop their own military capabilities based on tactical combat plans designed to counter a comprehensive, sustained attack launched simultaneously from land, sea and air,” he said.

Ghorab noted that this state of readiness enables the Houthi forces to carry out a direct response to sources of the threat – whether deep within enemy territory or at sea – targeting military bases or aircraft carriers as far as the Horn of Africa.

While the warring parties compete to seize strategic positions on several front lines, the latest escalation is also closely related to the wider regional confrontation.

“Iran has an interest in keeping Yemen and the Red Sea active as sources of leverage, while parts of the government camp believe the Houthis are under growing strain and that this is an opportunity to weaken them,” al-Jeddawy, the Sanaa-based researcher, said.

“The escalation still reflects domestic military and political aims, but its timing and direction cannot be separated from the regional war,” he told Al Jazeera.

Political analysts believe that the latest Houthi attacks open a new phase in Saudi Arabia’s approach to the Iran-backed group, marked by a shift from managing and containing escalation to firmly deterring it. They said that Riyadh will not accept the targeting of its citizens and residents on its territory, or attacks on its vital facilities.

The analysts told Asharq Al-Awsat that this phase is witnessing an advanced level of political, military, and security coordination between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s legitimate government, strengthening the latter’s ability to confront sources of threat and reshape the balance of power on the ground.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan said on Tuesday that his country would not hesitate to defend itself against attacks by the terrorist Houthi militia and would use all available means to protect its interests.

Speaking at a press conference with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, in Moscow, the Saudi foreign minister said the Kingdom is putting forward diplomatic solutions to avoid further suffering for Yemen and its people, and will not hesitate to support what serves the interests of Yemen and the region. He highlighted that the path of diplomacy for dealing with the Houthis remains open.

Prince Faisal added that the Houthis prefer to put their narrow personal interests ahead of Yemen’s interests, while the country’s legitimate government has provided an opportunity to negotiate with them responsibly. He described their latest escalation as part of their pattern of provocation.

The limits of Saudi Arabia’s patience

Dr. Abdulaziz Sager, chairman of the Jeddah-based Gulf Research Center, said Yemen’s legitimate government is fulfilling its responsibilities in confronting Houthi attacks targeting civilians and vital infrastructure across the country. He added that the government has worked to mobilize its capabilities and resources, and consolidate its ranks, particularly at the military level.

“The Kingdom will not tolerate any attacks against citizens, residents or vital facilities on its territory, and that its patience has limits,” Sager said. He expects Riyadh to respond “firmly and decisively against the sources of fire, in a manner proportionate to the scale and intensity of the attacks,” citing recent developments in Iraq.

He added that the Houthis had misread Saudi patience, saying that “they do not adhere to reason or logic and continue to receive instructions.” He said that the group had been given several opportunities over the past years but failed to make use of them.

A more decisive phase

Yemeni writer Saleh Al-Baidani said the latest developments point to “a shift from managing and containing escalation toward a more decisive approach focused on deterrence.”

He told Asharq Al-Awsat: “The Kingdom has provided ample opportunities for de-escalation and a political settlement, but the Houthis misread this restraint, treating it as a permanent limitation on Saudi action rather than a calculated political choice that could be reassessed as circumstances evolve.”

He added that the recent attacks on Saudi territory and vital facilities have elevated the threat to a level that makes the previous approach increasingly difficult to sustain. Al-Baidani said: “When the Houthis evolve from a party to the Yemeni crisis into a regional pressure tool more directly linked to Iran’s calculations and its wider confrontation in the region, the approach to dealing with them inevitably changes.”

According to Al-Baidani, the escalation is no longer linked solely to the Yemeni file, but has come to affect Saudi national security, the security of the Red Sea, energy supplies and the safety of international maritime corridors.

Saudi-Yemeni coordination

The Yemeni writer highlighted that coordination between Saudi Arabia and the legitimate government has entered a different phase compared to previous years, whether at the political, military or security levels.

He added: “The Kingdom appears more aware of the importance of having a Yemeni partner capable of managing the confrontation on the ground, while the Yemeni government realizes that any serious move against the Houthis requires a regional umbrella and political, military and economic support.”

Al-Baidani concluded that the success of the next phase remains contingent on the ability of the Yemeni side to unify military and political decision-making, and to transform multiple forces and fronts from a point of weakness into a source of pressure on the Houthis.

He added: “If that is achieved, we may not be facing a fleeting military round, but rather an attempt to reshape the balance of power that has settled over the past years.”

On Tuesday, Yemeni government forces expanded the scope of their field advance on a number of fronts, managing to liberate the Al-Yatama area in the Khabb wa ash-Sha’af district of Al-Jawf Governorate, northeast of Sanaa, a day after recapturing the Al-Labanat area in the same governorate. This came in parallel with the launch of a large-scale military operation in Al-Bayda Governorate, southeast of Sanaa, and the continuation of clashes on the western coast and west of Taiz, on the sixth day since the start of the Houthi escalation.

The advance comes at a time when government forces have begun, over the past few days, to shift from containing Houthi ground attacks to regaining the initiative on several axes, capitalizing on the group’s retreat from some positions, while army units, resistance forces and the Giants Brigades continue their operations on more than one front.