XRP

Today, XRP (XRP -13.05%) is priced at about $3. Depending on your perspective, that number could sound high or low. So is it worth buying the coin before it hits $4, and does it actually have a realistic chance of doing that?

Let’s dive in and figure it out.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the sub-$4 range is attractive

XRP’s recent price means that getting to $4 is not going to take a moonshot. Considering that the coin is up by 34% this year so far, it might even hit the target before the end of the year if its momentum picks up steam. But let’s zoom out to look at the trends that are likely to power further demand.

On that front, real-world asset (RWA) tokenization is the process of representing ownership of assets like stocks, commodities, and real estate in a crypto token managed on a blockchain so that they can be cheaply and quickly transferred or traced. Across public chains, tokenized RWAs are worth $33.5 billion and still climbing, so this is not just a fad anymore.

So where does the XRP Ledger (XRPL) fit? The XRP Ledger’s RWA footprint has been expanding quickly, with roughly $365 million in tokenized assets, up 12% during the 30-day period ended Oct. 8. Its roster of RWAs now includes notable asset platforms and issuers you would recognize from institutional investor circles.

In particular, U.S. Treasuries are the on-chain beachhead for financial institutions, and XRP is starting to have them in spades, with $170 million in value parked today, up by an impressive 26% during the past 30 days alone. And, critically, Ripple’s enterprise-targeted stablecoin, RLUSD (RLUSD -0.04%), launched on the XRPL with regulatory approval in December 2024, giving XRPL a native settlement rail that institutions can actually use alongside those Treasuries. RLUSD’s market cap is more than $791 million today, with its monthly transfer volume at roughly $5.3 billion and rising rapidly month over month.

Those assets make the XRPL a much better place to do business for the financial institutions that are looking to manage their capital and process their transactions on-chain. When paired with Ripple’s good relationships with international banks and currency exchange houses, it’s a strong cocktail of positive forces for further adoption of XRP as a financial tool.

In other words, big pipes for money are being laid right where and how the holders of large volumes of capital prefer to do business. If that process continues — and Ripple is deeply invested in making sure that it does — the sub-$4 window for XRP will feel like an obvious purchase in hindsight.

What could go wrong

XRP is thus worth buying while it’s less than $4. But that does not guarantee it will get there or that its price will subsequently go even higher if it does. A few things need to happen for the coin’s upward march to continue.

First, the XRPL’s systems and capabilities must continue growing, and Ripple’s marketing efforts must keep succeeding broadly. That means getting more RWA issuers opting in, larger portfolios of tokenized treasuries and funds, and deeper integrations that reduce operational drag for the regulatory compliance teams at big banks and asset managers.

Second, RLUSD adoption needs to broaden so that more institutional flows settle on XRPL rather than detouring to other rails where liquidity is deeper. Ripple has been explicit about building toward lending, identity verification, and other features to simplify the process of doing regulatory-compliant tokenization, but it needs to maintain its consistent execution for the chain to continue being successful.

Assuming those tailwinds persist, getting XRP from roughly $3 to $4 and beyond is very doable, particularly in a market cycle where broader crypto risk appetite remains positive.

XRP (XRP -1.75%) was built as payment scaffolding. Dogecoin (DOGE -1.09%) is the meme coin that keeps surprising people who bet against popular culture. These coins couldn’t be more different.

Both have posted big multiyear gains and made some investors into millionaires, with Dogecoin being the clear five-year standout, up by an absurd 9,780% compared to XRP’s gain of 1,090%. But if your goal is long-term wealth-building from here on out rather than an outrageously risky thrill ride, there’s a clear winner between these two. There are no guarantees in the world of investing or crypto, but let’s investigate which of these coins is more likely to still be a millionaire maker.

Image source: Getty Images.

XRP has decent odds for serious wealth-building

XRP’s core goal is to serve financial institutions and payment businesses across a handful of different functions.

Its chain, the XRPL, originally a platform for doing quick and cheap money transfers, is now a place where users can park value in stablecoins, process payments, access liquidity for settling trades in the traditional or cryptocurrency markets, and generate a yield from real-world assets (RWAs) like U.S. Treasuries.

Ripple, the company that issues XRP, has a go-to-market strategy that’s making the most of that architecture. Ripple recently secured a key license to offer regulated crypto payments in Dubai, a major international financial hub, and it has already onboarded a few clients after getting the approval.

It’s also in the process of getting similar permissions in many other global financial hubs so as to increase the chain’s addressable market. And securing that regulatory clarity to create bank-grade on-ramps to its network is exactly what institutional users require to commit real volumes and workflows.

The coin’s tokenomics and supply also support the long-term thesis for an investment. XRP’s maximum supply is 100 billion, which is gradually being released from escrow at regular intervals. Thus, investors won’t get their value significantly diluted over time.

But could the coin make investors millions?

Its market cap is currently upward of $180.2 billion. For that to dramatically increase, XRP would need to process a large portion of the global money transfer market, as well as onboard billions of capital from the traditional financial sector for management on the XRPL. It’s certainly possible for those things to happen, but only over a protracted period of time, and in the absence of strong competition. That means that you should not bet on it happening.

Dogecoin can still run

Dogecoin’s edge is its mindshare, which is unparalleled among meme coins and certainly one of the largest in the crypto sector in general.

In risk-on markets, it can rally sharply as attention snowballs, sometimes outpacing projects with vastly richer fundamentals, like XRP. While there’s no utility to owning Dogecoin, that hasn’t stopped it from gaining in value over time. In some sense, it’s that very property which keeps investors coming back for more, even though its crashes can be even more frightening than its run-ups are thrilling.

One big fly in the ointment is that its supply issuance schedule is bad for holders over the long term. A fixed 5 billion new DOGE are issued per year, so holders see their value consistently diluted. There is no hard cap on the coin’s total issuance; the value proposition, to the extent that there is one, therefore leans more on the coin’s culture remaining in vogue.

The challenge is thus durably creating and capturing economic value beyond periodic hype. Discussions about adding deeper utility have persisted for years in Dogecoin’s developer community, but most monetization pathways remain tentative compared to chains that already serve institutional workflows. In other words, Dogecoin can absolutely surge when big-picture trends are permissive and attention is high, but sustaining those gains without a hard cap or a cemented set of real-economy uses is harder.

If you’re looking for long-term compounding, predictable issuance without a ceiling is a structural headwind relative to capped-supply assets. That does not preclude strong runs, but it does raise the bar for calling it a millionaire maker from here.

There’s no need to overthink this one

Realistically, neither of these assets is likely to mint new millionaires from small stakes, as both are already quite large and probably can’t grow by the 100x that’d be necessary to really make new investors rich. But if you forced me to choose the more likely millionaire maker from today’s levels, and to say which I think would be the better asset for building wealth, I would pick XRP by a mile for both.

It has a clearer path to sustained, non-speculative demand via payments plumbing, bank-friendly regulatory compliance controls, and growing regulatory footholds, all of which are paired with a defined supply regime that won’t dilute holders’ value.

In contrast, Dogecoin has the bigger five-year highlight reel and can (and probably will) still pop impressively in risk-on periods, but its open-ended supply and still-nascent utility make it less likely to reliably compound in value over time. So consider an investment in XRP — but keep it small as you diversify your portfolio into more traditional investments — and hold off on even thinking about Dogecoin until it can offer some real utility, if it ever does.

XRP (XRP -0.18%), the third-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been one of the more popular cryptocurrencies in the market since Donald Trump was elected president last November, and it has benefited immensely from the administration’s pro-crypto policies. When the administration installed a new leader at the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the SEC eventually dropped an appeal in a long-standing lawsuit against Ripple, the company behind XRP.

That removed an overhang on XRP and allowed the company to move forward with its plans for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), and the expansion of the Ripple ecosystem, which XRP plays a key role in.

Image source: Getty Images.

The technical strength of XRP’s network also may allow it to disrupt international payments. Ripple continues to bridge the gap between mainstream financial institutions/institutional traders and the crypto world. The mainstream players are now more likely to try new things with fewer regulatory risks.

Ripple’s CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, has said he thinks that XRP could steal significant volume from SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications. Financial institutions use this messaging system globally to send payment instructions to one another. Cryptocurrencies like XRP could provide banks with instant liquidity, allowing them to hold fewer reserves and pre-fund fewer international accounts, providing them with more liquidity and capital flexibility of their own.

If you’d invested $500 in XRP five years ago

Due to XRP’s technical strength, ties to Ripple, and the end of the SEC lawsuit, XRP has been a big winner for investors who saw the opportunity five years ago and managed, perhaps, to invest just $500.

XRP Price data by YCharts

As you can see above, a $500 investment in XRP five years ago would be worth over $5,850 today for a total return of over 1,000%. Consider that the broader benchmark S&P 500 index has returned over 100% in the past five years, which is quite strong, but still not nearly as good as XRP’s performance.

The cryptocurrency market has had an extraordinary year, with top cryptos like Bitcoin (BTC -4.23%) and Ethereum (ETH -8.20%) setting new all-time highs. That upward trend has stalled recently. As I write this (September 25), Bitcoin has fallen 5% in the last week, Ethereum is down 13% and XRP (XRP -6.93%) has shed over 9% over the same time period.

What’s behind this lackluster performance? And will so-called Uptober — a term based on data that shows prices often go up in October — turn the crypto tides? Let’s dive in to learn more about three headwinds facing cryptocurrencies right now.

1. Money is flowing out of crypto ETFs

Crypto often suffers from a ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ syndrome. Speculation drives prices up in anticipation of a big event, and then they fall because investors sell once it actually happens. In the run-up to the Fed rate cut on September 17, crypto prices rallied, and spot Bitcoin ETFs saw solid inflows.

But as investors digested Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s words, they became more cautious. Particularly after a speech this week where Powell spoke of a “challenging situation” in trying to manage employment risks against inflation pressures. Lower rates often make riskier assets more attractive, but not if the benefits are offset by other economic concerns.

Sentiment is important in crypto, and right now, the fear and greed index is firmly in fear territory. That’s reflected in steep outflows from spot crypto ETFs. Per the Block data, there were over $360 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs on September 22. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC -4.10%) alone reported $277 million in outflows. That’s one of the biggest single-day outflows we’ve seen this year.

2. Over $1.6 billion liquidated in one day

CoinGlass data shows over $1.6 billion was liquidated on September 21 — the largest amount so far in 2025. Over $500 million in Ethereum positions and around $300 million in Bitcoin positions were wiped out. The liquidation highlights how leveraged positions can quickly cascade as falling prices trigger liquidations and push prices even lower.

The use of margin and leverage in cryptocurrencies can amplify price volatility. And leverage levels in crypto are increasing. Investors can use their crypto as collateral and essentially borrow money to take a bigger position. If the market moves in their favor, it can translate into higher returns. However, if prices go the other way and there isn’t enough collateral to back up the loan, the broker may liquidate and forcibly close the position.

3. Crypto treasury companies are faltering

This year has seen a surge in companies adding cryptocurrencies — predominantly Bitcoin and Ethereum — to their balance sheets. Public companies now own about 5% of the total Bitcoin in circulation, per data from BitcoinTreasuries. Their steady accumulation is one of the drivers behind Bitcoin’s incredible price rally.

Pioneered by Strategy (MSTR -8.78%), around 200 companies now hold crypto. Many of them have raised money with the sole purpose of buying more. It can act as a hedge against inflation, and any gains from price appreciation will help their bottom line. However, if Bitcoin’s price falls, so will the value of those holdings. There’s a risk that companies may have to sell their crypto to cover their debt.

Currently, the corporate treasury model is under scrutiny. Companies are buying fewer Bitcoins. And a quarter of Bitcoin treasury companies now have a market cap that’s lower than their crypto holdings, per K33. Some are borrowing money to finance share buybacks, raising questions about the model’s long-term viability.

Image source: Getty Images.

Further volatility ahead

There’s been a lot of talk in the cryptocurrency news about the potential for sentiment to shift in Uptober. That’s because data shows that Bitcoin prices often fall in September and rise in October.

But the factors that are dragging crypto prices down won’t change just because we’re in a different month. Pay attention to jobs and inflation data. Not only will those figures influence Fed decisions about further rate cuts, but they also give us a better idea of whether the economy is slowing.

For all the headwinds, Bitcoin is holding its head above $111,000, and we may see some positive drivers before the end of the year. More rate cuts are likely, as well as SEC approval of a flurry of crypto ETFs. Plus, the government may make further progress with crypto legislation.

Whether or not the bulls can regain momentum, the recent price swings are a reminder of Bitcoin’s volatility. This remains a risky and unpredictable asset, making it important to limit your crypto exposure to only a small percentage of your wider portfolio.

Most cryptocurrencies continued to struggle today after a flash crash earlier this week that may have removed some leverage out of the space. Today, however, investors seem more focused on economic data as they continue to grapple over how many interest rate cuts the Federal Reserve will make between now and the end of 2026.

Since yesterday afternoon, the price of XRP (XRP -5.18%) was roughly 4% lower, as of 12:06 p.m. ET today.

The Fed is cutting rates in a decent economy

Heading into the Fed’s meeting earlier this month, most of the market thought the Fed could potentially cut rates five or six times between now and the end of 2026. But Fed Chairman Jerome Powell called the recent quarter-point cut a “risk management cut” in case the economy were to slow significantly. The majority of Fed members expect another two rate cuts this year and then only one in 2026.

Image source: Getty Images.

While this could certainly change, new economic data this morning still points to a strong economy. Weekly jobless claims showing people filing for unemployment for the first time came in at 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, well below estimates and down by 14,000 from the week prior.

Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher to 3.8%, the best quarter in over two years.

Crypto investors were likely looking for weaker data that would lead the Fed to have a longer rate-cutting cycle. Lower interest rates tend to lead to more-speculative investments like crypto.

Not much margin for error

XRP has been a great investment over the past year, but with the market expecting so many rate cuts until recently, crypto prices could be vulnerable if the market’s expectations for cuts continue to come down.

The crypto has a strong technical network and the potential to disrupt the international payments space, but it is still very volatile, so I think XRP is worth a smaller, more speculative investment at this time.

The XRP (XRP 0.10%) cryptocurrency was created by a company called Ripple. It was designed as a bridge currency for the Ripple Payments network, which helps global banks send money across borders instantly, and with negligible costs.

Ripple was locked in a brutal five-year legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), until the regulator dropped the case in August as part of President Donald Trump’s pro-crypto agenda. This was a key reason XRP recently reached the highest price since 2018, and many investors are betting on further upside.

However, XRP is still dealing with a few other hurdles, which could keep a lid on additional gains from here. In fact, history suggests that the token might be heading significantly lower instead. Here’s where I predict it will be five years from now.

Image source: Getty Images.

XRP’s latest rally was fueled by regulatory relief

The world’s largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, is fully decentralized, meaning it can’t be controlled by any person, company, or government. There will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin in circulation, and nobody can alter that number. XRP doesn’t share those attributes.

XRP has a total supply of 100 billion tokens, with 59.8 billion currently in circulation. Ripple controls the rest and gradually releases them as necessary to meet demand, which is what caught the attention of the SEC. The regulator sued Ripple in 2020, arguing that XRP should be classified as a financial security, just like shares and bonds which are also issued by companies.

This would have placed Ripple under a strict regulatory framework, potentially hampering its business model, so it’s no surprise that the lawsuit depressed XRP’s price for years.

However, a judge issued a ruling in August 2024 that favored Ripple. The SEC appealed the decision, but its plans changed when Trump took office earlier this year and appointed crypto-advocate Paul Atkins to run the agency. Under Atkins’ leadership, the SEC dropped its appeal against Ripple last month, putting an official end to the five-year battle.

Although the response from investors was positive, friendly regulation alone might not be enough to carry XRP higher over the long term.

XRP could be heading for another 90% collapse during the next five years

XRP plummeted by as much as 92% within a year after hitting its previous record high in January 2018. Five years later, in January 2023, it was still down by 90%. The token has already declined by more than 20% from its more recent peak, and I predict further downside is on the way.

Banks don’t have to use XRP to benefit from instant cross-border transactions through Ripple Payments, because the network also supports fiat currencies. Therefore, the network’s success won’t necessarily translate to a higher value for XRP over the long term.

Ripple also launched its own stablecoin called Ripple USD (RLUSD 0.02%) at the end of 2024. Since it’s pegged to the value of the U.S. dollar, it offers a new way to send money through Ripple Payments with practically zero volatility. The value of XRP can fluctuate significantly from day to day, so Ripple USD might be a better option for risk-averse banks, even if their holding periods are very brief.

Since stablecoins are fully backed by safe assets like cash and Treasury bonds, they tend to get preferential treatment from regulators compared to traditional cryptocurrencies. In fact, the U.S. government passed the Genius Act in June, which governs the use of stablecoins in the financial system. Clear rules typically give banks and consumers more confidence to adopt new financial technologies, especially when substantial amounts of money are at stake.

Finally, as I mentioned earlier, the SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple suppressed the price of XRP after 2020. In other words, the token’s value is influenced by the issues facing its parent company, which is a pitfall of centralized cryptocurrencies. There is no guarantee that the U.S. government will maintain its crypto-friendly approach when the next administration takes office in 2028, which is a lingering risk for investors.

As a result, I predict that XRP will be substantially lower in five years. It might even decline by 90% from its recent peak, the same way it was down by 90% five years after setting its 2018 record high. That would translate to a price per token of just $0.36.

Alphabet‘s (GOOG 1.27%) (GOOGL 1.23%) Google recently unveiled its Google Cloud Universal Ledger (GCUL), which has a lot in common with Ripple Labs’ XRP (XRP -0.69%) Ledger (XRPL). Both blockchains provide faster, cheaper, and more secure financial transactions than traditional SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) transfers, and they both support cross-border transfers, automated payments, integrations with third-party digital wallets, and tokenized assets.

That announcement might alarm Ripple’s users and XRP’s investors, but is Google really trying to kill XRP? Let’s review the key similarities and differences to find out.

Image source: Getty Images.

The similarities and differences between GCUL and XRPL

GCUL and XRPL are both designed to facilitate faster financial transactions, but there are three key differences.

First, GCUL is a centralized private platform that is only open to vetted and approved institutions. It’s geared toward regulatory compliance, stability, and institutional control, with Google Cloud initially managing its governance and infrastructure services.

XRPL is a decentralized public platform that anyone can access. Its validators are spread out across the world instead of being corralled within a single company. That can be a double-edged sword: It can be more freely accessed than GCUL, but the lack of a vetting and approval process exposes it to more illegal transactions.

Second, GCUL doesn’t have its own native token. XRPL has a native token, XRP, which is mainly used to satisfy its settlements, fees, and reserve requirements. XRPL’s fees are low, but its fees rise as its network activity increases. GCUL charges predictable monthly fees instead of relying on volatile fees driven by the blockchain system’s “tokenomics.”

XRPL also has its own native stablecoin, Ripple USD (RLUSD -0.01%), which is pegged to the U.S. dollar. Both Ripple USD and XRP are frequently used for bridge currency transfers — in which two volatile or illiquid currencies are directly converted to the native token as a “bridge” instead of being converted to a third fiat currency (like the U.S. dollar) in a slower and pricier transaction. Without its own tokens, GCUL will likely underperform XRPL in those bridge currency transfers.

Lastly, GCUL natively supports smart contracts, which are used in the development of blockchain-based applications. XRPL only natively supports lightweight “hooks” for developing simpler programs, but it’s reportedly been mulling the development of “sidechains” to integrate more Ethereum (ETH 0.50%)-based smart contracts into its ledger.

Is GCUL a threat to XRPL?

Google’s GCUL could be an appealing option for larger banks, clearinghouses, and asset managers who prefer a tightly regulated platform with predictable fees. It could also be a natural fit for large enterprise customers that are already locked into Google’s cloud-based services.

However, XRPL’s decentralized approach, resistance to regulators, and lower fees should make it more appealing to individual users and smaller financial institutions who don’t want to lock themselves into Google’s ecosystem. Google is also approving GCUL’s customers on a strict case-by-case basis, which could drive more customers to XRPL due to the sluggish process.

Moreover, Google doesn’t plan to officially launch GCUL until 2026. Before that happens, a few major catalysts could spark XRPL’s near-term expansion: the increased adoption of Ripple USD as an alternative to the U.S. dollar; the approvals of XRP’s first spot price exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in October and November, and the rollout of more sidechains to support the development of decentralized apps (dApps) and other crypto assets.

XRPL has already partnered with more than 300 banks worldwide, so there could plenty of room for both of these blockchains to flourish without trampling each other. XRPL and GCUL certainly have plenty of overlapping interests, but it’s premature to call the latter — or any other newcomer — an “XRP killer” before it even launches.

In 2020, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued a company called Ripple, alleging it was in breach of financial securities laws for the way it was issuing its cryptocurrency token, XRP (XRP 1.08%). The lawsuit threatened to derail Ripple’s business model, and it suppressed the price of XRP for years.

But everything changed when President Donald Trump was reelected last November. He promised to make America “the crypto capital of the world,” which involved taking a friendlier approach to regulation. He appointed crypto-advocate Paul Atkins to run the SEC, and the agency has since withdrawn from several active cases against industry giants like Binance and Coinbase.

The SEC also dropped its case against Ripple in August, bringing the brutal five-year legal battle to an official end. Here’s what might be in store for XRP from here.

Image source: Getty Images.

Why the SEC sued Ripple

Ripple created a unique payments network called Ripple Payments. It facilitates instant cross-border transactions by enabling global banks to deal with one another directly, no matter what existing infrastructure they use. Without Ripple Payments, banks using the SWIFT (Society of Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) network would have to use an intermediary to send money to banks that don’t use the system, delaying payments by several days.

Ripple created XRP as a bridge currency to standardize each transaction within Ripple Payments. For example, an American bank might send XRP to a European bank rather than sending U.S. dollars, cutting out costly foreign exchange fees. The cost of a single transaction using XRP is typically 0.00001 of a token, which is a fraction of one U.S. cent.

XRP has a total supply of 100 billion tokens. There are 59.6 billion in circulation, and the rest are controlled by Ripple, which gradually releases them to meet demand. As a result, XRP is a centralized cryptocurrency. Decentralized cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC 0.08%) aren’t controlled by any person or company, and they are typically earned through a process called “mining.”

That’s why the SEC sued Ripple in 2020. The regulator argued that XRP should be classified as a financial security, just like stocks and bonds, which are also issued by companies. This would have forced Ripple to operate under a very strict regulatory framework, potentially derailing its business model.

In August 2024, a judge issued a ruling that mostly favored Ripple. The SEC lodged an appeal which could have dragged the legal battle on for several more years, but the Trump administration’s pro-crypto agenda changed things. The Atkins-led SEC officially dropped the appeal last month, formally closing the case.

Here’s what might happen next

XRP hit a new record high in July for the first time in seven years, in anticipation of Ripple’s settlement with the SEC. Bullish sentiment was also fueled by the approval of a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) called the ProShares Ultra XRP ETF on July 18. It invests in futures contracts, so it doesn’t own any XRP directly. But investors are speculating that regulatory approval for spot ETFs could follow, and those funds would start buying up XRP tokens.

There is some precedent, because futures-based Bitcoin ETFs came before spot ETFs, so investors are hoping XRP follows the same path. This proved to be very bullish for Bitcoin because many investors already viewed it as a legitimate store of value, so ETFs gave financial advisors and institutions a safe, regulated way to own it.

I’m not convinced that spot ETFs would have the same effect on XRP, because it doesn’t have a proven reputation as a store of value. It’s a bridge currency in the Ripple Payments network, and ETFs wouldn’t improve that use case at all.

That brings me to a crucial point. Ripple Payments supports the use of fiat currency, so banks don’t have to use XRP. This means that the success of the network won’t necessarily lead to a higher value per token over the long term.

Therefore, if Ripple Payments isn’t a reliable value creator for XRP, and ETFs fail to become a tailwind like they are for Bitcoin, then volatility is likely to be the overriding theme from here. When XRP hit its previous record high in 2018, it plunged by more than 90% over the following year.

The token is in a better position today, but I don’t see a clear fundamental case for sustainable long-term upside from here, which leaves investors exposed to potential price corrections in the future.

Over the past century, no asset class has rivaled the annualized return of stocks. But when the lens is narrowed to just the trailing decade, cryptocurrencies have absolutely crushed the benchmark S&P 500 in the annualized return column.

Though Bitcoin (BTC 0.46%) has led the way with its first-mover advantages, it’s XRP (XRP 0.56%) that’s been flying the highest of all the major digital assets of late. Over the trailing-12-month period, XRP has practically quintupled, up 396%, while Bitcoin has gained a more “modest” 84%, as of the late evening on Aug. 29.

Whereas stocks tend to ebb and flow because of tangible financial metrics, such as their operating results and prevailing economic data, emotions and hype are known to move digital currencies. There’s little question that anticipation and hype have helped lift XRP to a more than seven-year high. The question is: Will the old Wall Street adage “buy the rumor, sell the news” put an end to this monstrous rally in the world’s No. 3 digital asset?

Image source: Getty Images.

XRP entered 2025 in an ideal situation

Whereas Murphy’s Law states that “anything that can go wrong, will go wrong,” XRP has had virtually everything go its way since early November 2024.

In November, Donald Trump won the presidency, which was viewed as a positive for most cryptocurrencies. Aside from Trump’s tinkering with the idea of a Bitcoin strategic reserve during his campaign, he was viewed as the friendliest presidential candidate to the crypto industry.

Since Trump’s inauguration, he’s signed the Genius Act into law, which established stablecoin backing and redemption standards, audit requirements, and federal oversight for the largest stablecoin issuers. While this doesn’t directly affect XRP, it paints a picture of an administration that’s willing to remove tight restrictions that had previously been placed on digital assets.

Another hyped event for XRP has been the expected approval of a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF). A crypto spot ETF gives a buyer exposure to a specific digital asset without having to directly purchase it on a crypto exchange. In turn, buyers would pay a nominal fee (the net expense ratio) that covers the management and marketing costs for the fund.

When spot Bitcoin ETFs were first approved, massive cash inflows were observed for weeks. If spot XRP ETFs were to get the nod from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) come October, a similar multiweek period of cash inflows would be expected.

However, the most-hyped event of all was the expected end to five years of litigation and appeals between the SEC and Ripple regarding whether or not Ripple sold XRP as an unregistered security. Ripple is the largest holder of XRP coins and is the company utilizing XRP as its intermediary payment token on RippleNet.

Last month, the SEC and Ripple agreed to drop their respective appeals. The news investors had waited years for had finally arrived — and so has the selling pressure on XRP.

XRP’s faults may be difficult to mask without a carrot at the end of the stick

Since the SEC sued Ripple in 2020, ending this litigation had been viewed as the carrot at the end of the stick that kept the hype train rolling. But with the appeal process over, sweeping XRP’s tangible faults under the rug could be tougher than ever before.

On paper, the lure of XRP is that it can assist with the rapid settlement of cross-border payments. The XRP Ledger is capable of validating and settling transactions in roughly three to five seconds, with payments costing just a fraction of a penny. This is considerably more palatable than the decades-long standard for cross-border payments. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) can take days to settle international payments and is much costlier per transaction.

But there are some big-time caveats and catches to this seemingly slam-dunk thesis.

Image source: Getty Images.

For starters, banks aren’t required to use XRP as an intermediary on Ripple’s payment networks. If global financial institutions use Ripple’s payment network but not XRP, demand for XRP tokens will likely be insufficient to support its nearly 400% price appreciation over the trailing year.

The adoption rate for RippleNet isn’t all that impressive, either. Whereas more than 11,000 financial institutions are using SWIFT as their preferred cross-border payment solution, only an estimated 300 global financial institutions are relying on RippleNet in some capacity. While some investors might view this as a glass-half-full opportunity for RippleNet to gain share over time, it also speaks to the ironclad grip the SWIFT network has on international payments.

This is a good time to note that XRP lacks standalone value. Unlike Bitcoin, which can be used as a form of payment and is often viewed as an inflationary hedge amid a steadily increasing U.S. money supply, there is no standalone use case for XRP, save as an intermediary for some transactions on Ripple’s payment platform.

Lastly, XRP isn’t even guaranteed to be the preferred cross-border payment coin. Though there’s no denying it’s connections to larger financial institutions, Solana offers notably faster and inexpensive transaction settlement. In addition, peer-to-peer payment platform Stellar can settle payments just as quickly as XRP.

With XRP’s big event now firmly in the rearview mirror, profit-taking may be the new norm.

XRP (XRP 0.69%) is a cryptocurrency that was launched by Ripple Labs in 2012. Its main purpose is to enable low-cost international money transfers, particularly for banks and financial institutions. It uses XRP as a bridge currency, which essentially means that two parties can exchange different currencies by putting their funds into XRP.

It has gained over 420% in the last year, spurred by an end to its long-running court case and optimism about changing political attitudes toward crypto.

XRP enthusiasts think this is only the beginning. Free from the shackles of legal battles, they think the token can go to the moon. Indeed, analysts at Standard Chartered predict it could soar another 300% or more before 2028.

Image source: Getty Images.

Anything is possible in the world of cryptocurrency. For example, if the SEC approves a spot XRP ETF and more companies start to use Ripple’s payment solutions, both could be big drivers of growth. However, speculation is rife, and a lot of potential positive news is already priced in. Moreover, there are a few reasons XRP may not be able to sustain its current price.

1. XRP looks overvalued

One of the challenges in cryptocurrency investing is that we can’t use traditional metrics like P/E ratios to value a project. Blockchain-specific metrics exist, such as network activity, market cap, and fees or revenue. But Ripple Labs is a private company that doesn’t have to publish financial statements, and XRP transaction fees work differently from other blockchains. In itself, the very lack of information is a reason to be cautious.

We know that XRP has a market cap of almost $170 billion as of Aug. 29. If it were a public company, it would be one of the top 100 companies in the U.S. Its market cap is bigger than Nike, Capital One, and S&P Global.

That just doesn’t seem realistic. For sure, the global cross-border payment market is huge. The IMF estimated that the traditional and crypto international payment market was almost 1 quadrillion dollars in 2024. It’s also true that Ripple may be well-positioned to capitalize on — and even drive — changes to the industry.

But right now, only a fraction of international payments go through Ripple’s network.
It’s hard to see how a cryptocurrency created by a team with over 900 employees is comparable to a global icon like Nike with almost 80,000 employees.

2. XRP is not the only payment solution

With the average international remittance fees at over 6%, per the World Bank, the global money-moving space is ripe for disruption. Particularly as U.S. lawmakers recently passed the GENIUS Act, creating a clear framework for stablecoin issuance and reserves.

Now that the regulatory roadblocks are gone, various businesses are trying to work out how to integrate blockchain technology and stablecoins into their operations. Stripe is developing its own blockchain.PayPal has its own stablecoin and “Pay with Crypto” functionality. Visa
has announced a new tokenized asset platform. Mastercard has crypto credit cards and blockchain infrastructure.

Ripple Labs could benefit from a boom in stablecoins and tokenization because it offers custody and blockchain integration solutions, which could be built on the XRP Ledger. But it’s all still to play for. Ripple Labs is only one of several players jostling for position in a space that is undergoing dramatic changes.

3. The SWIFT network is piloting its own blockchain solutions

XRP is slightly outside the payments fray, as its main focus is to facilitate transactions between banks and financial institutions. Its main competitor is the existing SWIFT network, an international cooperative made up of over 11,500 institutions. Indeed, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told the XRP APEX 2025 conference in June that XRP could take 14% of SWIFT’s international payment transfer volume in the coming five years.

But SWIFT is taking its own steps into the blockchain world. And it isn’t using XRP to do it. Last year, the existing Swift payment system completed a tokenized asset pilot with UBS and Chainlink.

XRP feels overhyped

XRP is an interesting cryptocurrency that uses blockchain technology to solve real-world problems. That fact alone sets it apart from many crypto projects and might earn it a spot in your portfolio. Unfortunately, its market cap seems extremely high for a crypto that is only starting to establish itself in an extremely competitive space.

It’s also important to note that holding XRP is not the same as owning shares in Ripple Labs. Ripple is a private company that owns around 40% of XRP. Not only does that give Ripple significant control over XRP’s price, but it also means XRP holders are vulnerable to shifting business priorities. If other non-XRP avenues, such as its own stablecoin, prove more profitable, that’s the direction the business will follow.

XRP (XRP 0.20%) has recently seen pullbacks following news that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has delayed its decision on whether the cryptocurrency can be included in new exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Higher-than-expected inflation and recent reports from major U.S. retailers suggesting that inflationary pressures could be poised to worsen in the near term have also weighed on the token’s valuation.

While XRP is still up 39% across 2025’s trading, it’s also down 20% from its high. On the heels of recent sell-offs, there’s one significant catalyst on the horizon that suggests that now could be a good time to invest in the cryptocurrency.

Image source: Getty Images.

Buying XRP before October could be a smart move

With a recent update, the SEC said that it had pushed out decisions on whether it would allow two new ETFs centered around the XRP token that were expected to arrive this month. A decision on the application for the Grayscale XRP trust is now expected to arrive Oct. 18, and one on the 21Shares Core XRP Trust is expected by Oct. 19.

While the SEC’s recent decision to postpone how it will respond to applications for these ETFs has seemingly added to uncertainty surrounding whether the cryptocurrency will become part of publicly traded funds listed on major exchanges, there are good reasons to think that the token will receive approval for fund inclusion. Current SEC chairman Paul Atkins’ support for the crypto industry and general advocacy for a more lax regulatory approach to the space is one of the key points where he differed from previous chairman Gary Gensler.

Along with executive orders on the crypto industry and other moves from the Trump administration to support the adoption of cryptocurrencies, signs of policy shifts at the SEC support the thesis that the regulatory agency will approve XRP’s inclusion in ETFs. While higher-than-expected inflation and a slower path to interest rate cuts could introduce bearish pressures for the token, political and regulatory catalysts suggest paths to more gains this year.

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XRP‘s (XRP 5.54%) token price is seeing strong bullish momentum in Friday’s trading. The cryptocurrency had gained 5.7% over the last day of trading as of 2 p.m. ET. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was up 4.1%, and Ethereum had surged 13%.

XRP is bounding higher thanks to promising news on the interest rate front. In a speech he gave today, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell signaled that the U.S. central banking authority will likely cut interest rates at its meeting next month. That’s great news for the crypto market.

Image source: Getty Images.

XRP rises with a rate cut seemingly on the horizon

The outlook on the trajectory for the benchmark interest rate has been one of the most important catalysts for the cryptocurrency market this year. While investors have generally been betting that the Fed will issue multiple rate cuts in 2025, some recent developments had threatened the thesis and resulted in sell-offs in the crypto space.

For starters, the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July Producer Price Index report arrived with inflation that was far hotter than the market had expected. Adding to fears that higher inflation will start showing up in the consumer rung of the economy and delay rate cuts, Home Depot and Target gave commentary along with their respective quarterly reports this week that suggested that tariffs are spurring pricing increases and pressuring consumer spending. Despite those dynamics, Powell seemed to confirm that a rate cut is coming soon — and his comments today have reignited bullish momentum for XRP.

What’s next for XRP?

Powell noted in his speech that inflationary pressures have continued to persist, but it looks like other concerns are taking precedence when it comes to shaping the Fed’s next interest rate moves. After July’s U.S. jobs report arrived with net employment additions that were far weaker than expected and big downward revisions for estimated jobs growth in May and June, weakness in the labor market will seemingly cause the Fed to serve up a rate cut at its meeting in September. While the extent of the cut and the outlook for additional cuts later in the year remain uncertain, one of the biggest recent valuation pressures for the crypto market has seemingly been lifted.