Trump says he is considering a ‘massive attack’, as Iran’s Araghchi says ‘mindless aggression’ won’t help a deal.
Published On 24 Jul 202624 Jul 2026
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COLUMBIA, S.C. — Sen. Darline Graham (R-S.C.) has privately expressed interest in running for a full U.S. Senate term after getting appointed as a temporary replacement for her late brother, Lindsey Graham, according to three people familiar with the deliberations.
The people, who were not authorized to speak publicly, said she has started having conversations about a potential campaign.
Plans for Lindsey Graham’s funeral were also announced Friday. There will be a service in Washington on July 28 and more in South Carolina on July 29.
Darline Graham’s eventual decision could dramatically shake up the scramble to fill her late brother’s seat after he died last weekend. The filing period for a special primary runs from July 21-28, and the primary is scheduled for Aug. 11.
Several other noteworthy politicians — including Reps. Russell Fry, Nancy Mace and Ralph Norman, as well as Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette — have been eyeing a run.
Darline Graham’s conversations were first reported by Semafor.
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Darline Graham to serve the remainder of her brother’s term, which ends in January.
The first woman to represent the state in the Senate, Darline Graham called it “such an honor,” as dozens of her brother’s staffers and campaign advisors stood behind her, some with eyes glassy from welling tears.
“Lindsey has always been there for me. And now, I will be there for him,” she said.
Lindsey Graham died on Saturday at age 71. A preliminary report from the medical examiner said he suffered a tear in his aorta.
He never married or had a family of his own, but his sister was often by his side for the political touch points of his career, speaking at events and appearing in some of his campaign ads.
In his announcement on Monday, McMaster made no reference to her as a placeholder or symbolic appointment.
However, a person familiar with McMaster’s thinking but unauthorized to speak publicly said the governor, in selecting Darline Graham, had never contemplated that she would run for the seat herself.
Sen. Tim Scott, another South Carolina Republican, said he would not endorse any candidate in the primary because he also serves as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
But, he said, “as Tim Scott, the voter of South Carolina, I might indeed wade into the water at some point.”
“I think the truth of the matter is that Darline has so far been off to a remarkable start,” Scott told reporters, asking about her as a possible special primary contender. “ ‘Why not her?’ would be my question.”
When he died, Lindsey Graham had millions in his campaign account and was expected to raise much more heading into the general election. But those aren’t funds that Darline Graham could directly access, if she were to run, according to Bradley A. Smith, a former chairman of the Federal Election Commission.
Under federal rules, Lindsey Graham’s campaign would be limited to transferring just $2,000 to a potential Darline Graham candidacy. However, Smith said there is no limit on how much it could transfer to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which could — thanks to a Supreme Court decision last month — “spend an unlimited amount in coordination with Darline’s campaign.”
“It can’t be earmarked for Darline’s campaign, but in those circumstances I’m sure that the party will make sure she’s not short of cash,” said Smith, now serving as a professor at Capital University Law School in Ohio.
Kinnard and Kim write for the Associated Press. Kim reported from Washington.
Minister of Gender Equality and Family Won Min-kyung discusses the ministry’s policy achievements and plans during a briefing at the Government Complex Seoul on Wednesday. Photo by Asia Today
July 16 (Asia Today) — The South Korean government is considering lowering the maximum age for exemption from criminal punishment from 14 to 13 for juveniles who commit violent, serious or repeated offenses.
The debate intensified after President Lee Jae-myung ordered officials Tuesday to reconsider an initial proposal that would lower the age by only one year and apply the change to limited categories of crimes.
Lee questioned whether the proposed change was substantial enough during a Cabinet meeting.
Under South Korean law, children younger than 14 cannot be held criminally responsible. Those ages 10 through 13 who commit offenses may instead receive protective measures under the Juvenile Act.
The Ministry of Gender Equality and Family presented the Cabinet with the results of a public consultation on the issue. It proposed making some 13-year-old offenders eligible for criminal punishment when they commit particularly serious or repeated crimes.
Cabinet members, however, raised concerns that applying different ages of criminal responsibility depending on the type of offense could create legal problems.
The minimum age of criminal responsibility has remained unchanged since South Korea enacted its Criminal Act in 1953.
A deliberative survey of 212 citizens showed that 46.7% supported lowering the age only for violent, serious or repeated offenses while 30.2% favored lowering it for all offenses.
Among participants who supported a reduction, 55.8% favored lowering the threshold by one year.
The government is expected to conduct a second public consultation to determine whether the change should apply only to specified offenses or to all crimes. The process also will consider whether the current threshold should be lowered from younger than 14 to younger than 13 or younger than 12.
The Ministry of Justice is expected to lead the second consultation because the proposal requires a detailed legal review.
Officials will need to determine which offenses qualify as violent or serious and whether applying different criminal responsibility standards according to the offense would conflict with the purpose of the juvenile justice system.
The second consultation could begin this month and conclude within one or two months.
The government said it would gather additional public input before reaching a final decision.
The Ministry of Gender Equality and Family also plans to pursue revisions to the Criminal Act and Juvenile Act while considering the creation of an interagency committee focused on preventing juvenile delinquency.
Officials said the government would strengthen post-offense management and rehabilitation programs designed to reduce repeat offenses regardless of whether the age threshold is lowered.
— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.
Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260716010006327
The Palantir logo is displayed on a mobile phone alongside a stock market graph displayed on a laptop screen in Liverpool, Britain, 09 June 2026. Photo by ADAM VAUGHAN / EPA
June 26 (Asia Today) — Japan’s Defense Ministry plans to expand the use of artificial intelligence in the Self-Defense Forces’ command-and-control operations, potentially bringing AI into the process through which commanders assess battlefield conditions and direct military units.
The move would mark a new stage in Japan’s defense transformation, shifting its focus beyond acquiring more weapons and equipment toward digitally supported battlefield decision-making.
The Asahi Shimbun reported Friday, citing multiple government officials, that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s government plans to include the expanded use of command-and-control AI in three revised national security documents expected by the end of the year.
The documents are the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy and Defense Buildup Program.
The Defense Ministry is also considering including some related expenses in its fiscal 2027 budget request, according to the report.
Japan has used AI for some defense-related functions, but it has not placed the technology at the center of the Self-Defense Forces’ operational command structure.
A command-and-control system allows commanders to assess enemy threats, friendly forces, unit locations and intelligence assets before planning operations and issuing orders.
AI could rapidly organize and analyze large volumes of surveillance, reconnaissance, communications and sensor data before presenting commanders with possible courses of action.
One system reportedly under consideration is the Maven Smart System developed by U.S. data analytics company Palantir Technologies.
Maven analyzes information from satellites, drones, radar systems, battlefield sensors and intelligence reports. It can identify potential threats and targets and help commanders compare possible operational responses.
The U.S. Defense Department has expanded its use of the system and is moving to establish it as a formal long-term military program.
Adopting Maven could improve interoperability between the Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. military, allowing them to process and share operational information more quickly during joint missions.
The proposal, however, has also raised questions about data control, technological dependence and Japan’s authority over its own military command systems.
Command and control is not an ordinary administrative function. It is the highest-level structure through which a government decides how and when to use military force.
Reliance on software and algorithms supplied by a foreign private company could require Japan to establish clear rules covering military data management, access to source technology, system control, wartime operating authority and alternatives in the event of a malfunction or service disruption.
The introduction of foreign software would not formally transfer command authority to the company or the United States. Japanese commanders would retain responsibility for operational decisions.
The debate instead centers on how much of the information-processing infrastructure behind those decisions should depend on technology that Japan does not fully own or control.
Calls for domestically developed defense AI have consequently grown within Japan’s government and ruling-party circles.
One proposal would allow Japan to use a U.S. system initially while developing an independent platform through Japanese technology companies and the country’s defense industrial base.
Japan could eventually replace the foreign system or operate domestic and U.S. technologies together.
Developing a military-grade AI command system capable of immediate operational deployment would be difficult, however. A combined approach using both American and Japanese technology is therefore considered more likely in the near term.
The Defense Ministry identified seven priority areas for military AI in a policy issued in 2024: target detection and identification, intelligence collection and analysis, command and control, logistics, unmanned systems, cybersecurity and administrative efficiency.
The policy states that AI should assist rather than replace human judgment and that meaningful human involvement must be maintained.
The ministry has since established a team to accelerate AI adoption and has called for greater cooperation with Japanese defense companies and technology startups.
Japan’s consideration of command-and-control AI also carries implications for South Korea.
During a conflict or regional emergency, information sharing and operational coordination among the U.S. military, the Self-Defense Forces and South Korea’s military could become increasingly rapid and automated.
AI-assisted command systems could improve coordination in responding to North Korean missile launches, Chinese military activity or a crisis in the Taiwan Strait.
The same technology could also accelerate errors.
Incorrect intelligence, incomplete data or biased algorithms could cause an AI system to present commanders with misleading threat assessments or inappropriate operational choices.
Human commanders would remain responsible for final decisions, but the speed and complexity of AI-supported operations could make errors more difficult to identify before action is taken.
Japan’s plan therefore represents more than a military technology upgrade. It raises broader questions about who controls defense data, how allied systems should be connected and who bears responsibility when AI influences a military decision.
— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.
Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260626010009431
Pupils learn how to do division as they attend an open math class utilizing digital versions of print textbooks, provided on tablet computers with additional video and audio information, at Namsan Elementary School in Chuncheon, Gangwon Province, South Korea. Photo by YONHAP / EPA
June 18 (Asia Today) — South Korea is again considering changes to a local education funding system that automatically receives a fixed share of national tax revenue, as a semiconductor-driven rise in government receipts is expected to increase grants despite a shrinking student population.
The debate centers on local education finance grants, the main source of funding for elementary, middle and high schools administered by regional education offices.
The grants have risen to about 76 trillion won ($50 billion) under this year’s supplementary budget, according to the National Assembly Budget Office and education officials.
Some projections suggest the total could exceed 80 trillion won ($52.6 billion) if stronger tax revenue from the semiconductor industry is fully reflected.
The grant system receives 20.79% of internal tax revenue along with part of the national education tax. That means the amount increases when tax receipts rise, regardless of changes in student enrollment.
The number of elementary, middle and high school students fell from 5.96 million in 2016 to 4.92 million this year, a decline of 1.04 million, or 17.4%.
Over the same period, local education grants increased from 43 trillion won ($28.3 billion) to 76 trillion won, an increase of 33 trillion won ($21.7 billion), or 76.7%.
Budget officials and public finance experts say the automatic link to tax revenue makes government spending less flexible.
They argue that funding for primary and secondary education continues to expand despite falling enrollment while early childhood, higher education and lifelong learning programs face comparatively greater financial constraints.
Proposals include adjusting the percentage of internal tax revenue allocated to the grants or incorporating changes in the school-age population and nominal economic growth into the funding formula.
Education officials have strongly opposed reducing the grants based mainly on student numbers.
Superintendents-elect from South Korea’s ninth nationwide local elections issued a joint statement Monday warning that students would ultimately bear the cost of a funding overhaul driven primarily by fiscal considerations.
“Personnel expenses for teachers and other employees, school operating costs and facility safety and maintenance expenses arise at the school and classroom level, not simply on a per-student basis,” they said.
Schools also face growing fixed costs for meal services, after-school care and administrative support.
Personnel costs for permanent contract employees at public schools, including cafeteria workers, care staff and administrative assistants, reached 5.74 trillion won ($3.77 billion) last year.
That was a 61% increase from 2021. The figure is expected to exceed 6 trillion won ($3.94 billion) this year.
Three major teachers’ organizations also rejected claims that regional education offices have excess money.
They said the combined initial budgets of special education accounts fell by about 1 trillion won ($657 million) this year.
Funding for teaching and learning support declined 14.9%, while spending on school facility improvements fell 22.4%, they said.
The groups described education office reserve funds as a financial safeguard rather than unused money.
The Education Ministry is reportedly considering alternatives to immediately lowering the legally mandated allocation rate.
Possible measures include retaining the link to internal tax revenue while placing a ceiling on annual increases or allowing regional education offices to use more of the money for early childhood, higher education and lifelong learning.
The approach is intended to avoid a sudden reduction in primary and secondary school funding while directing more resources toward other parts of the education system.
Park Nam-gi, an emeritus professor at Gwangju National University of Education, said many necessary programs remain underfunded despite claims that schools have surplus resources.
“There are many things schools cannot do because they lack funding,” Park said.
He cited the expansion of special education, separate spaces and personnel needed to protect teachers and investment in education suited to the artificial intelligence era.
“It is wrong to conclude that education funding is excessive without properly supporting these needs,” Park said.
He said cash assistance programs introduced by some superintendents should be corrected where necessary, but that such concerns should not be used to justify reducing the overall education budget.
“Unlike welfare spending for the present, education funding is an investment in the country’s future,” Park said.
— Reported by Asia Today; translated by UPI
© Asia Today. Unauthorized reproduction or redistribution prohibited.
Original Korean report: https://www.asiatoday.co.kr/kn/view.php?key=20260618010006611
Published on
The era of Chair Warsh begins in earnest this Wednesday, as US President Donald Trump’s pick to run the Fed presides over his debut rate decision and steps before the cameras for his first press conference in the role.
Few economists anticipate dramatic action on day one, but the meeting carries unusual weight for what it might reveal about the months ahead.
Policymakers are expected to hold the benchmark rate steady at a target range of 3.50% to 3.75%, which would mark the fourth consecutive meeting without a move. The committee cut 25 basis points in December 2025.
The bigger question is the language, with officials potentially revising their post-meeting statement to drop any hint that the next step will be a reduction, signalling instead that rates may stay elevated for some time, or even rise should inflation prove sticky.
Warsh inherits a far less accommodating picture than the one he faced when he was widely seen as campaigning for the job last year.
At that time, he argued forcefully for lower rates, echoing US President Donald Trump’s demands, and pointed to AI as a force that could expand the economy’s productive capacity and tame prices over time.
Many economists doubted that thesis even then, noting that the surge of investment in semiconductors and computing equipment was adding to inflationary pressure rather than easing it.
Inflation has indeed accelerated since the outbreak of the Iran war in late February, climbing to a three-year high of 4.2%, driven largely by costlier petrol.
US President Donald Trump has announced a framework for a peace deal that could end the conflict, but it is unclear whether the truce will hold, and prices for fuel, groceries and airfares could take months to cool even if Middle Eastern oil flows freely again.
By the Fed’s preferred gauge, inflation has now run above its 2% target for more than five years. Hiring, meanwhile, has remained resilient.
May brought 172,000 new jobs, a third straight month of solid gains, removing much of the rationale for the two rate cuts the Fed had pencilled into its January projections.
Because the rate itself looks settled, attention turns to the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections and its closely watched “dot plot”, the quarterly projection of future interest rates.
According to Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave, the new dot plot could show the Fed keeping rates on hold for the rest of 2026, with at least three of the committee’s 12 voting members potentially pencilling in rate hikes this year.
Communication is the other wildcard. Warsh has argued that the central bank should speak less often and keep a lower profile, on the view that publicly stated positions can trap policymakers into defending them well past their usefulness.
One option would be to thin out the calendar of press conferences, reverting to the every-other-meeting rhythm favoured by Ben Bernanke, who chaired the Fed from 2006 to 2014, when the format was introduced. Leaner guidance, however, risks unsettling markets long accustomed to clear direction.
Adding intrigue, predecessor Jerome Powell remains on the board as a governor, a seat he can hold until January 2028, and is expected to vote on Wednesday’s decision, denying the Trump administration an additional vacancy to fill.
Additional sources • AP
bodnarchuk/iStock via Getty Images
Barrick Mining (B) is considering a possible London listing for its African business, potentially via an all-stock deal with U.K.-listed Endeavour Mining (EDVMF) as a possible option, Reuters reported Monday.
Under one scenario being explored, Barrick (B) would retain its
Trump weighs next steps on Iran deal as Tehran insists negotiations are continuing and no final agreement exists.
Published On 30 May 202630 May 2026
Prospects for a US-Iran agreement to end the conflict remained uncertain on Friday, with President Donald Trump saying he would make a “final determination” on a deal, while Iranian officials stressed that no understanding had yet been reached.
Iran’s chief negotiator, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Tehran would judge any agreement by actions rather than words, adding that no steps would be taken unless Washington acted first.
Meanwhile, fighting continued elsewhere in the region. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israeli forces had advanced beyond Lebanon’s Litani River, as Israeli attacks across Lebanon on Friday left dozens more civilians reportedly killed or wounded.
Here is what we know:
In the age of Ozempic, the buzziest hardcovers are getting smaller — and slip right into your Baggu. At Book Soup in West Hollywood, the bestselling hardcover fiction display is marked with laminated cards that denote the book’s place in the top 10, with each one cut snugly into the popular hardcover frame of 6-by-9 inches. But lately, more of the books rising to the top wear the placard noticeably looser.
I should know, I work at Book Soup so I spend a lot of time staring at this display and can tell you, the answer to this problem is definitely to print out smaller cards cut to the little sister “trim size” of 5-by-8 inches — or 5½-by-8¼ to be specific.
While the New York Times bestsellers from 2025 skew in favor of the 6-by-9 trim, the popularity of 5-by-8 books appears to be on the rise. Current utilizers of the smaller cut include the buzzy Vanderbilt heir Belle Burden’s “Strangers,” George Saunders’ darkly humorous “Vigil” Lena Dunham’s millennial-tinged tell-all “Famesick” and the infamously tablet-sized “Transcription” from Ben Lerner.
1/5
“Strangers: A Memoir of Marriage” by Belle Burden (The Dial Press)
2/5
“Famesick: A Memoir” by Lena Dunham (Random House)
3/5
“Vigil: A Novel” by George Saunders (Random House)
4/5
“Transcription: A Novel” by Ben Lerner (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
5/5
“Lost Lambs” by author Madeline Cash (Farrar, Straus and Giroux)
Gretchen Achilles is the director of interior design at Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Achilles recently implemented the 5-by-8 cut for one of this year’s breakout hits, “Lost Lambs” by Madeline Cash. “It’s a tone,” she says. “Smaller trim sizes have an intimacy. … You want to echo what’s going on in the text as an experience for the reader.”
According to Achilles, FSG frequently implements the 5-by-8 trim size. She said that length is the No. 1 factor when deciding to employ it, followed by genre. She listed literary fiction, memoir, biography, and essay collections as the defining genres of the smaller size books.
Caroline Mason is a writer in New York whose debut novel “An Endless Cycle of Evenings” from Hyperion Avenue is slated for 2027; she runs the Instagram account @literarycrushes. Mason described a 5-by-8 hardcover as shorthand for a specific book she seeks out when she is in a bookstore because it often signals a character-driven novel. “It’s my favorite kind of book,” Mason says. She adds that it’s also Instagram-friendly.
“Holding the book up to take a photo of it is easier,” she says with a laugh. “Although I do sometimes still drop it.”
Dahlia de la Vega is an L.A.-based Bookstagrammer who runs the page @ofpagesandprint. According to De la Vega, she finds the shrunken books more approachable. “When I sit down to read a small hardcover, it almost feels like I’m reading a journal,” she says. “Whereas when I read a large hardcover, it almost feels like I need a journal to jot down notes about what’s happening.”
Ethan Mann, my colleague and a supervisor at Book Soup, told me he remembers the place he was both mentally and physically when he purchased a 5-by-8 hardcover copy of “The Parade” by Dave Eggers. (Right before the pandemic struck at CSUN campus store at Cal-State Northridge). “It’s easier to attach relevance to the specific feel of [the book] because it seems one of a kind,” he says.
Mann adds that hardcovers are sometimes a tough sell on the floor. They are often derided for their cost, and customers declare they will wait till the paperback comes out. But the smaller hardcover has the benefit of fitting into nearly any bag.
Esther Margolis is a publishing veteran and the founder of Newmarket Press. She says that the 5-by-8 hardcover is nothing new. According to Margolis, the smaller trim size was previously the industry standard for U.S.-based publishing houses, and any fluctuation is due to the evolution of printing technology.
“Unlike for mass-market paperbacks, hardcover books were shelved, so it didn’t matter that the books were different sizes,” Margolis says. “They didn’t have to fit into a pocket.”
The popularity of the 5-by-8 hardcover is, at the very least, indicative of a shift in what I witness consumers at Book Soup seeking out. With social media making it easier than ever to connect over the act of reading, or looking like you are reading, cover design and presentation — and how it cuts through the noise of the attention economy— is perhaps a factor too.
“A small hardback is like a Labubu,” my co-worker Mann says. “ The feeling in your hands isn’t just about books — it’s about all cute things. … We like small things we can control.”
The success of the publishing industry could never rest on the tiny shoulders of the small hardcover. It may not even represent any changes in production. But on the bestsellers display at your favorite local indie, it represents the small pleasure of palming a near-pocket-size book in your hands.
And, yes, maybe Instagrammability too.
Messinger is a writer in L.A. who runs the Substack adumbmessinger.
Usyk is one of the sport’s most decorated fighters, an Olympic gold medallist who has unified both the cruiserweight and heavyweight divisions across 24 unbeaten fights.
On paper, a rise on the scales may prompt questions about why he is operating outside his most effective weight, particularly against a boxing novice.
Fury’s conditioning in his 2023 bout with Francis Ngannou, when he was dropped and laboured to a narrow points win over the MMA fighter, is often cited as an example of how preparation and focus can come under scrutiny in crossover fights.
In Usyk’s case, however, his approach and discipline have remained consistent throughout his amateur and professional career across weight classes, with the Ukrainian considered one of the sport’s ultimate professionals.
He said at Thursday’s news conference that when a stoppage opportunity presents itself, he will take it.
The increase on the scales could therefore suggest he is looking to carry more power into the contest and planning a quick victory.
Mandy Moore shared her take on the drama swirling around her celebrity mommy group, months after fellow child actor Ashley Tisdale shaded the bunch in scathing essay last winter.
The “This Is Us” star and mother of three, during a recent appearance on Andy Cohen’s Sirius XM show “Radio Andy,” said she found the former “Suite Life of Zack & Cody” star’s article “very upsetting” and that it shocked both herself and fellow mommy group member Hilary Duff. “We have both grown up in this business and had people dissect who we are and the choices we make and all of that,” Moore, 42, told the Bravo host, “but this was something altogether different and decidedly way more upsetting … because it just cuts to the core.”
In December, New York magazine published “High School Musical” star Tisdale French’s essay for its “It’s Been a Year” series. The actor’s piece, titled “Breaking Up With My Toxic Mom Group,” accused other group members of snubbing Tisdale French from various gatherings and group chats. “‘This is too high school for me and I don’t want to take part in it anymore,’” Tisdale French, who shares two children with composer Christopher French, recalled texting the group.
As Tisdale French’s essay sparked speculation online about the identity of the group members, Duff’s husband Matthew Koma appeared to confirm his wife’s membership in a since-expired Instagram story post throwing the shade right back at Tisdale French.
For Moore, married to musician Taylor Goldsmith, kindness is “the most important thing” in her life, as is creating a legacy of kindness, she told Cohen. She said that she finds “anyone even insinuating that might not be the case” to be “very upsetting.” Moore said she is a “huge proponent” of addressing conflict head-on via face-to-face communication.
“‘I wouldn’t have handled the situation this way,’” she recalled feeling about the essay. Moore did not mention Tisdale French by name.
Moore said she also felt the scandalous essay “perpetuates this silly trope that women can’t be supportive of one another” and that women, specifically mothers, are “inherently petty” and committed to “one-up each other.”
“I have not felt that one iota since becoming a parent,” Moore said, adding she has formed “meaningful relationships” with other parents. She further stressed the importance of parents finding their community wherever they can.
Duff, 38, addressed the mommy group drama with The Times in February, telling pop music critic Mikael Wood that “this is not new for me” and she felt the situation was “escalated by the talking heads on TikTok that need clickbait.” Amid the social media chatter, Duff said her family is her focus.
”Knowing that I get to open up the back doors and play soccer as a family and take a hot tub and go get our chicken eggs — that’s the purpose of life,” she said. “On the days when crazy s— happens, I go home and quiet the noise.”
Global currency markets remained broadly stable on Monday despite escalating geopolitical tensions linked to the ongoing conflict involving the United States and Iran. The limited movement in the US dollar came after President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s response to a United States peace proposal, reinforcing concerns that the conflict in the Middle East may persist for an extended period.
At the center of global financial attention is the interaction between geopolitical risk, energy prices, and monetary policy expectations. Rising oil prices, driven by uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional instability, continue to shape inflation expectations across major economies. However, currency markets have shown relative restraint, suggesting that investors are balancing immediate geopolitical risks against expectations of eventual diplomatic stabilization.
The US dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of major global currencies, remained largely unchanged. At the same time, oil prices rose sharply, reflecting renewed concerns about supply disruptions and prolonged conflict conditions.
Financial markets are currently operating in a state of tension between short term geopolitical shocks and longer term expectations of resolution. The stability of the US dollar suggests that investors are not fully pricing in a sustained breakdown in global energy flows, despite elevated uncertainty in the Middle East.
The oil market, by contrast, continues to respond rapidly to political developments. The rise in crude prices reflects concerns that prolonged instability could restrict supply routes and tighten global energy availability. This divergence between currency stability and commodity volatility highlights the uneven transmission of geopolitical risk across financial systems.
Market analysts note that expectations of diplomatic engagement between the United States and China remain a key stabilizing factor. Investors increasingly view high level diplomatic meetings as potential mechanisms for de escalation, particularly given the influence both countries exert over global energy and trade systems.
A major factor influencing market behavior is the anticipated summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The meeting is expected to cover a wide range of strategic issues including energy security, artificial intelligence, nuclear policy, and regional conflicts.
Markets are closely monitoring this engagement because both the United States and China possess significant leverage over geopolitical and economic developments in the Middle East. China’s role as a major energy importer and diplomatic stakeholder in the region gives it potential influence over Iranian policy, while the United States remains the dominant military and financial actor in global markets.
This dual influence creates expectations that broader geopolitical tensions may eventually be moderated through strategic dialogue. As a result, investors are partially pricing in the possibility of containment rather than escalation, which helps explain the relative stability of major currencies.
Energy price movements remain central to global inflation dynamics. Rising oil prices directly influence transportation costs, production expenses, and consumer prices, creating upward pressure on inflation across both advanced and emerging economies.
In the United States, recent economic data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious monetary stance. Strong employment figures combined with persistent inflation risks have reduced expectations of near term interest rate cuts. This has contributed to support for the US dollar, as higher interest rate expectations typically attract capital inflows into dollar denominated assets.
The interaction between monetary policy and geopolitical risk is becoming increasingly complex. Central banks are now required to respond not only to domestic economic indicators but also to external shocks originating from energy markets and international conflicts.
In this environment, currency movements reflect not just economic fundamentals but also expectations regarding central bank behavior under conditions of sustained uncertainty.
While the US dollar remained stable, other major currencies exhibited modest weakness. The euro, yen, and British pound all recorded slight declines, reflecting broader caution in global markets.
The movement of the Chinese yuan, which briefly strengthened to its highest level in several years, adds another dimension to the global currency landscape. This reflects both domestic economic data and broader expectations regarding China’s role in global trade and energy markets.
China’s economic performance, particularly in exports and industrial activity, continues to be closely linked to global energy prices and supply chain dynamics. Strong export growth suggests resilience in external demand, even amid geopolitical uncertainty and rising production costs.
These currency movements collectively indicate that global markets are navigating a period of uneven economic signals, where regional conditions and geopolitical developments interact in complex ways.
One of the defining characteristics of the current financial environment is the speed at which geopolitical developments translate into market expectations. Currency traders and investors are increasingly sensitive to political signals, particularly those involving energy producing regions and major global powers.
However, despite heightened volatility in oil markets, the US dollar’s stability suggests that investors still view the global financial system as structurally resilient. Rather than anticipating systemic disruption, markets appear to be pricing in cyclical instability followed by eventual stabilization.
This reflects a broader pattern in which financial markets absorb geopolitical shocks through short term volatility without fully abandoning long term confidence in global economic integration.
The stability of the US dollar amid escalating geopolitical tensions highlights a critical feature of contemporary global markets. While energy prices and regional conflicts generate significant short term volatility, currency markets remain anchored by expectations of monetary policy stability and eventual diplomatic resolution.
The current environment is characterized by three overlapping dynamics. First, geopolitical risk is elevated due to sustained conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding diplomatic negotiations. Second, energy markets are highly sensitive to supply disruptions, producing rapid price fluctuations. Third, central bank policy expectations continue to play a stabilizing role in currency valuation.
The anticipated meeting between the United States and China represents a key focal point for market sentiment, as investors look for signals of broader strategic coordination or de escalation. However, the underlying structural tensions in the global system remain unresolved.
Ultimately, the current stability of the dollar should not be interpreted as a sign of reduced risk, but rather as evidence that markets are temporarily balancing competing expectations of conflict, diplomacy, and monetary policy. In such an environment, volatility in commodities and geopolitical headlines may continue, even as major currencies appear relatively stable on the surface.
With information from Reuters.
1 of 4 | A pro-temporary protected status activist protests outside Supreme Court. Photo by Jamie Gareh/Medill News Service
WASHINGTON. April 29 (UPI) — Fritz Emmanuel Lesly Miot left Haiti in 2010 after a deadly earthquake hit the island nation. As hundreds of thousands of Haitians died in the catastrophe, Miot fled to the United States, where he was granted temporary protected status, a short-term visa program.
Miot, 33, has lived in the States ever since and now researches Alzheimer’s disease in California as a doctoral candidate.
But last year, the Trump administration attempted to revoke his status and send him back to Haiti, along with all other Haitians who had been granted temporary protected status.
On Wednesday, the Supreme Court heard arguments in Miot’s case, along with a similar case that affects Syrian nationals living under temporary protected status. These legal battles, Trump vs. Miot and Mullin vs. Doe, could decide the future of some 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians living in the United States.
What is TPS?
Temporary protected status began in 1990, enacted as a way to provide foreign nationals relief from war, natural disaster or other “extraordinary and temporary conditions.”
Those with temporary protected status are granted legal status for up to 18 month periods, which can be extended based on an evaluation of the safety conditions in the countries they have left behind.
Currently 1.3 million people in the United States — from 17 countries — rely on temporary protected status. The Trump administration has attempted to terminate that status for those from 13 of those nations in the last year, including Afghanistan, Venezuela, South Sudan and Nicaragua.
Lower courts have blocked many of these terminations, deeming them unlawful, and immigrants under temporary protected status have remained in a state of limbo since. The results of these cases could set a legal precedent that would allow the termination of temporary protected status for citizens from these countries, with minimal oversight.
Two questions
Central to Wednesday’s debate were two questions: First, did then Secretary of Department of Homeland Security Kristi Noem follow correct procedure when deciding it would be safe to send people back to Haiti and Syria? Second, did the judicial branch have the legal right to interfere in the secretary’s decisions on temporary protected status?
Noem was criticized for not sufficiently consulting other state agencies when evaluating Haiti and Syria’s safety conditions. She was accused of violating the Administrative Procedures Act. Some Democratic-appointed Justices highlighted brief email exchanges Noem made with the State Department that led her to terminate Haiti and Syria’s status.
In the case of Haiti, she wrote last September to the State Department in an email, “Can you advise on State’s views on the matter?” The State Department simply replied, “State believes there would be no foreign policy concerns with respect to a change in the TPS status of Haiti.”
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson on Wednesday questioned whether a “meaningful exchange” of information was made and whether Noem made any effort to actually evaluate the nation’s safety conditions, which is the basis of how temporary protected status is granted.
The government’s attorney, Solicitor General John Sauer, argued that minimal oversight was required of the DHS secretary in these decisions. But Jackson took issue with that, saying it would mean that Noem “can basically do whatever she wants.”
Sauer also vehemently argued that the DHS secretary’s actions should not even be open to judicial review, citing a law that states judges cannot interfere in “any determination with respect to the designation, or termination or extension,” of temporary protected status.
However, Justice Sonia Sotomayor responded that while the courts can’t challenge the secretary’s ultimate decision, they can question whether the procedures taken to come to those decisions fall within the law.
The immigrants’ attorney, Sotomayor and Jackson all later grilled Sauer on whether the Trump administration’s terminations were racially discriminatory.
Sotomayor and Jackson referenced Trump’s previous hostile rhetoric toward both communities. The justices repeatedly referenced one particular post on Truth Social in which Trump said that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.”
Sotomayor said Trump’s statement showed that “discriminatory purpose may have played a part in this decision.”
Immigrant advocates watched the case closely.
“Certainly the goal of this Trump administration is to make people… immediately vulnerable,” Lucas Guttentag, a Stanford law professor who started the ACLU’s Immigrants’ Rights Project, said in an interview.
He said this was part of a much larger campaign to “de-legalize” lawful immigrants and potentially “eviscerate the immigration and asylum protection system covered in this country for decades and generations.”
However, Ira Mehlman, the media director for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, said that many of the immigrants living under temporary protected status had been here far too long.
He said many Haitians arrived 16 years ago. “By no reasonable assessment of the law or English language could you consider that time frame temporary,” he said in an interview.
He added that refugees from many countries, including Haiti and Syria, received temporary protected status because of natural disasters or civil wars that have already ended. So the reason to keep them in the United States has also ended.
“None of them were the Garden of Eden before the earthquake or hurricane … and they’re probably never going to be,” he added.
Kavanaugh echoed this sentiment, saying “The whole thing was the Assad regime was 53 years of brutal treatment and repression. It’s gone.”
Return to literally nothing
Liana Zogbi, a spokesperson from the non-profit Syrian Forum USA, painted a different picture. She said that Syrians would be “returning to literally nothing” should the Supreme Court rule in the government’s favor and Syrians be sent home.
“The majority of the country has been destroyed physically,” she said, explaining that schools, hospitals and even roads are still being rebuilt.
The State Department currently advises U.S. citizens not to travel to Syria “for any reason due to the risk of terrorism, unrest, kidnapping, hostage-taking, crime and armed conflict.”
Haiti is under a similar travel advisory from the State Department, which cites “crime, terrorism, unrest and limited healthcare.” Zogbi said the government would be contradicting itself were it to rule these countries safe for its nationals’ return but not safe enough for U.S. citizens to visit.
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants await a decision by the court, which is expected before July.
“Not only does it bring back up … the kind of trauma around instability and destabilizing their lives,” Zogbi said. “They [TPS holders] never know what can happen and how fast they have to leave. They constantly have to make plan A, B, C and D to just kind of prepare for any outcome of a situation.”