Beirut, Lebanon – When Israel attacked Lebanon in September 2024, Fatima Kandil left her home in Beirut’s southern suburbs, known colloquially as Dahiyeh. As the area sustained wide-scale Israeli air strikes, many Lebanese fled Dahiyeh for other parts of the country or, like Kandil, sought refuge in Iraq.
Nearly seven months after the November ceasefire between Israel and the armed Lebanese group Hezbollah – an agreement Lebanon says Israel has repeatedly violated – rockets are lighting up the night sky once again. But this time, Hezbollah is not involved. Instead, Israel and Iran are exchanging direct military attacks.
“We don’t know how this will all end, so we are undoubtedly tense,” Kandil, now back in Lebanon, told Al Jazeera. However, she added that she had a feeling of satisfaction seeing missiles rain down on Israel. “Our revenge is being taken,” she said.
While Kandil’s sentiment is shared by some in Lebanon, others – those who see Iran’s support for Hezbollah, a group that has dominated Lebanon militarily and politically for two decades, as nefarious – cheered on the Israeli attacks against Iran. Many people in Lebanon told Al Jazeera they hoped that stability would prevail and that their country wouldn’t be dragged back into a prolonged conflict or subjected to the ferocity and frequency of the Israeli attacks it suffered last year.
“People are taking precautions,” Karim Safieddine, a Lebanese political writer and academic, told Al Jazeera. “Some are readying their bags.”
No intervention … yet
Early Friday, Israel struck Iran and assassinated several top commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) along with top nuclear scientists. Numerous civilians were also killed, including children, according to Iranian state media.
Hours later, Hezbollah released a statement condemning the Israeli attacks and offering condolences for the slain Iranian officers. But analysts say the statement was a clear sign that Hezbollah would not be entering the battle in support of Iran.
“Currently, there is no need for Hezbollah to intervene, as Iranian missiles are capable of confronting the Israeli occupation,” said Qassem Kassir, a Lebanese political analyst supportive of the group. “However, if the situation escalates into a full-scale war, nothing prevents the situation from changing.”
Hezbollah, founded amid the Lebanese civil war in 1982 with Iranian backing and funding, draws much of its support from Lebanon’s Shia Muslim community. The group began firing rockets at Israel on October 8, 2023, after the start of Israel’s war on Gaza.
Israeli attacks in Lebanon between October 2023 and November 2024 largely targeted areas where Shia live, killing around 4,000 civilians and fighters, according to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health.
Many Lebanese are still reeling from the damage left by Israel’s attacks. Some remain displaced from their villages in southern Lebanon, which was razed. Hezbollah’s priority is to ensure that homes and towns are built in the area.
While Israel is still hitting targets around the country, mostly in southern Lebanon but occasionally in the Beirut suburbs as well, any resumption of military activity by Hezbollah would likely draw an even more intense Israeli response and further disrupt reconstruction efforts.
Much of Hezbollah’s military arsenal was reportedly destroyed during the Israeli attacks, though analysts believe they have retained some arms, including ballistic missiles.
Still, Hezbollah’s lack of intervention in the current Israel-Iran conflict is “evidence of their lack of capacity”, Safieddine said. Hezbollah may not have the means to intervene militarily.
The Israeli campaign on Lebanon also left Hezbollah’s political leadership battered. Many of the group’s most senior military figures, including longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, were assassinated. The group’s political hegemony is now being challenged by the Lebanese state, with pressure from the United States and Israel, as it moves to disarm Hezbollah and bring the use of force under the state’s exclusive authority.
For now, analysts believe there is a consensus and understanding between Tehran and Hezbollah that the group will not intervene.
“Domestic political circumstances make it extremely difficult for Hezbollah to join in Iranian retaliation,” Nicholas Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the US-based think tank Atlantic Council, told Al Jazeera. “And the Iranians recognise they can’t call on them.”
The battle within
While Hezbollah is sometimes referred to as an Iranian proxy, many experts say the group is more accurately described as a close ally of the IRGC and the Iranian government with shared interests and a similar ideology.
During Israel’s heavy bombardment of Lebanon between September and November 2024, Iran’s intervention was relatively limited. Israel invaded southern Lebanon, and while Israeli troops have pulled out of most of the Lebanese territory they entered during the war, they still occupy five points.
“There’s resentment and unhappiness toward Iran by Hezbollah because they feel Iran let them down in the recent conflict,” Blanford said. Iran reportedly asked Hezbollah not to use some of its more lethal weapons, which analysts linked to fears of an Israeli response on Iranian territory.
As for Israel’s attacks on Iran, there’s no indication that Tehran has asked Hezbollah to get involved yet, according to Kassir, the analyst thought to be close to Hezbollah. But that might change if a protracted war draws in actors from around the region.
Blanford said he doesn’t expect to “see Hezbollah joining in full scale”, but noted that if Israel starts to struggle in its fight against Iran, it could lead to “some activity along the Blue Line”, the line traversing Lebanon’s southern border. If that happens, Blanford said, Hezbollah may look to carry out operations in the Israeli-occupied areas of Lebanon.
Israel’s plans for Lebanon and Hezbollah remain unclear, but the sound of Israeli drones, an ever-present buzz during the most severe days of the war, has returned to Beirut’s skies in the last few days.
“I wouldn’t rule out [Hezbollah’s intervention] entirely,” said Blanford. “But for now, it looks like they will stand on the sidelines and keep an eagle eye on what is going on.”
