Flights are fuller than ever with UK load factors reaching 85-90%, increasing the risk of passengers being ‘bumped’ from overbooked planes during the busy February half-term break
Families heading abroad this month could be at risk(Image: Getty Images)
Within just a few weeks, thousands of British families will be jetting off during the February half-term break, with airports bracing themselves for exceptionally high passenger volumes. However, holidaymakers have been cautioned about possible travel chaos during this period, as flights are operating at peak capacity.
The aviation sector is experiencing unprecedented growth, with more aircraft taking off each year to whisk passengers away to sought-after destinations. The industry has witnessed remarkable expansion in its scale, capabilities, and global connectivity, showing no indication of easing off.
Last summer proved particularly remarkable, with over 90 million travellers passing through UK airports between July and September alone – the busiest three-month stretch ever recorded, according to figures from the UK Civil Aviation Authority. Furthermore, ACC Aviation reports that a staggering 3,593 new flight routes were introduced across various carriers throughout 2024 and 2025 to meet surging passenger demand.
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Despite February half-term being a considerably shorter holiday window, flights are still anticipated to be jam-packed as families escape abroad for a winter getaway. Yet lurking behind this travel boom could be an unseen hazard for passengers, as aircraft are being booked out more heavily than at any point previously.
Figures from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) published last week showed that the global passenger load factor – the proportion of available seats occupied by travellers – hit an all-time high of 83.6 per cent in 2025, marking a 5.3 per cent increase. Breaking down the statistics, European carriers recorded a load factor of 84.1 per cent, whilst UK airlines routinely surpassed 85-90 per cent, according to Air Advisor, reports the Express.
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Looking ahead, travel demand in 2026 is projected to climb further, meaning more than 83 out of every 100 seats could be taken, leaving minimal spare capacity. This not only complicates rebooking cancelled flights but may also see passengers denied boarding at airports altogether.
Carriers routinely overbook flights to offset no-shows, however when capacity runs high, this practice can trigger significant issues. Air Advisor highlighted that if a carrier anticipates 10 per cent of passengers won’t turn up and overbooks accordingly, but only 5 per cent actually miss their flight, it could end up with more passengers than available seats.
Furthermore, airlines may struggle to accommodate all confirmed passengers if they deploy a smaller aircraft than originally scheduled. With aircraft fuller than ever before, the likelihood of overbooking incidents has substantially increased.
This means certain passengers could find themselves being asked – or even compelled – to surrender their seat on the aircraft. According to the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) website: “If this happens to you, it means you have been ‘bumped’ from your flight. It is also called ‘denied boarding’. Often, you can volunteer to be bumped, but sometimes airlines will bump you without your agreement.”
However, passengers who voluntarily agree to be ‘bumped’ will receive compensation from the airline, ranging anywhere from £110 to £520. Furthermore, travellers – whether they volunteered or were involuntarily ‘bumped’ – will be provided with either a refund or an alternative flight, though the wait time for the next available departure can differ based on flight availability.
The increased appetite for travel, resulting in fuller planes, also creates additional challenges. It becomes significantly more difficult to secure an upgrade, reduces the number of available empty seats, and can occasionally affect last-minute bargains.
To minimise the risk of being ‘bumped’, holidaymakers are encouraged to check in online as soon as it opens, choose their seat in advance and turn up at the boarding gate with time to spare.
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