Vladimir Putin

Moscow and Kyiv signal a short Easter truce as diplomacy stalls and war pressures mount.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has announced a 32-hour ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirming that Ukraine will honour it.

The Kremlin said on Thursday that the pause in fighting will begin at 4pm Moscow time (13:00GMT) on Saturday and run until midnight on Sunday, covering Easter celebrations observed in both countries.

“We proceed on the basis that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation,” the Kremlin said in a statement.

It added that Defence Minister Andrei Belousov had instructed Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov to halt military operations during the period. Russian forces, however, would remain ready to respond to any violations.

Zelenskyy said Ukraine had already proposed a similar pause and would act in kind.

“Ukraine has repeatedly stated that we are ready for reciprocal steps. We proposed a ceasefire during the Easter holiday this year and will act accordingly,” he wrote on Telegram.

“People need an Easter without threats and a real move towards peace, and Russia has a chance not to return to attacks even after Easter.”

Hours after the announcement, the governor of Dnipropetrovsk region said Russian artillery and aerial attacks had killed two people.

“The enemy attacked three districts of the region almost 30 times with drones and artillery,” Oleksandr Ganzha said on Telegram on Friday.

This weekend’s planned ceasefire echoes a similar, short-lived pause declared by Moscow last year, which both sides accused each other of breaching.

The ceasefire comes as wider diplomatic efforts to end the war remain stalled, with attention in Washington shifting towards escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Difficult months ahead

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow had not discussed the Easter proposal in advance with the United States, nor did it signal any immediate revival of three-way peace talks.

Despite the limited pause, humanitarian channels between the two sides remain active. Speaking from Moscow, Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapovalova said Russia and Ukraine recently carried out another exchange of soldiers’ remains.

“Moscow handed over the remains of 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers to Kiev in exchange for 41 bodies of the Russians,” she said.

“More than 500 bodies of Russian servicemen have been returned this year during these regular exchanges and over 19,000 bodies of Ukrainian soldiers have been returned to Kiev,” she added.

These exchanges, often mediated by Turkiye, remain one of the few functioning lines of communication between the warring sides, alongside periodic prisoner swaps.

Zelenskyy has repeatedly pushed for temporary ceasefires, including a halt to attacks on energy infrastructure, but said Moscow had largely rejected proposals. He added that Ukraine now faces growing pressure, both on the battlefield and from international partners.

“This spring–summer period will be quite difficult politically and diplomatically. There may be pressure on Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said. “There will also be pressure on the battlefield.”

He warned that the coming months could prove decisive, as Kyiv confronts both sustained Russian attacks and shifting geopolitical priorities among its allies.

“I believe it will be very difficult for us until September.”

“A bit” is what United States President Donald Trump thinks about the scale of Russia’s military aid to Iran.

Moscow “might be helping them a bit”, he told Fox News on March 13.

A day later, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated laconically that Moscow’s military cooperation with Tehran was “good”.

His words seemed to confirm earlier media reports that Russia is providing Iran with satellite and intelligence data on the locations of US warships and aircraft.

It may not sound like much, given the superiority of Western military satellites and Russia’s battlefield losses and communication problems after Elon Musk’s SpaceX company switched off smuggled Starlink satellite Internet terminals.

But data on US military assets Iran is receiving most likely comes from Liana, Moscow’s only fully functional system of spy satellites, according to an expert on Russia’s space programme and military.

“The [Liana] system has been created to spy on US carrier strike groups and other navy forces and for identifying them as targets,” Pavel Luzin, a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank, told Al Jazeera.

Eyes in the sky

Russia also played a key role in the development of Iran’s space programme and its key satellite, the Khayyam.

Launched in 2022 from Russia’s Baikonur cosmodrome, the 650kg (1,430 pound) satellite orbits the Earth at 500 kilometres (310 miles) and has a resolution of one metre (3.3 feet).

Moscow “can, in theory, receive and process data from Iran’s optical imaging satellite and share data from its own several satellites”, Luzin said.

On Wednesday, Tehran claimed to have struck the Abraham Lincoln carrier with multiple cruise and ballistic missiles, but the Pentagon called the claim “pure fiction”.

On Sunday, Iranian media claimed that a “massive blaze” was caused by a strike on a US destroyer refuelling in the Indian Ocean.

Washington did not comment on that strike.

Russia has, for decades, supplied weaponry to Iran, including advanced air defence systems, trainer and fighter jets, helicopters, armoured vehicles and sniper rifles, worth billions of dollars.

Since Washington and Tel Aviv began their strikes on February 28, Russia has continued aiding Iran with “intelligence, data, experts and components” for weaponry, Lieutenant General Ihor Romanenko, former deputy chief of Ukraine’s general staff of armed forces, told Al Jazeera.

While Moscow and Tehran loudly proclaim their strategic partnership, they do not have a mutual defence clause, and Moscow has not intervened in the conflict directly.

But the arms supplies have been mutual. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Tehran has provided Moscow with ammunition and artillery shells, firearms and short-range ballistic missiles, helmets and flak jackets.

Drones with ‘comets’

And then there are the Shahed kamikaze drones – slow, noisy, yet cheap to manufacture – which have been launched on Ukrainian cities in swarms of dozens and then hundreds. Ukraine became so adept at bringing these down – now mass-producing cheap interceptor systems specifically to target Shaheds – that it is now providing its own know-how to Gulf states where US military assets have come under fire from Iran in recent weeks.

In the course of its war with Ukraine, Moscow has manufactured and modernised Shaheds, making them faster and deadlier, and equipping them with cameras, navigators and, occasionally, artificial intelligence modules.

And now, some of the upgrades have made their way back to Iran.

A Shahed drone with a pivotal Russian component launched by Iran-backed Hezbollah from southern Lebanon was able to hit a British airbase on Cyprus on March 1, the UK’s Times newspaper reported on March 7.

It reportedly contained Kometa-B (Comet B), a Russian-made satellite navigation module that also acts as an anti-jamming shield, making drones more resistant to interference.

Russia has also perfected the tactic of sending waves of real and decoy drones to exhaust and overwhelm Western-supplied air defence systems in Ukraine.

These days, the scheme helps Iran hit targets in the Gulf, Western officials say.

“I think no one will be surprised to believe that Putin’s hidden hand is behind some of the Iranian tactics and potentially some of their capabilities as well,” British Defence Secretary John Healey said on March 12 after Iranian drones struck a base used by Western forces in Erbil, northern Iraq.

However, if Iran is suffering a shortage of drones – as some analysts believe it is – that would render the use of Russian tactics, as well as Russia-supplied satellite data useless, experts say.

“Russia does supply data, it’s obvious, the data helps Iran, but not much,” Nikita Smagin, a Russian expert who has written extensively on ties between Moscow and Tehran, told Al Jazeera.

After four days of intensive strikes using up to 250 drones a day in early March, Iran has been launching only up to 50 drones a day, according to Nikolay Mitrokhin, a researcher with Germany’s Bremen University.

“Iran ran out of steam really fast,” he told Al Jazeera.

‘A goodwill gesture’

Moreover, Moscow is not necessarily particularly interested in an Iranian military victory, as the war is benefitting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s own conflict in Ukraine.

Skyrocketing oil prices make “Putin financially capable of further hostilities,” Lieutenant General Romanenko said.

As Iran strangles shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the price of Brent crude – the international benchmark – has soared past $100 a barrel in the past three weeks. US President Donald Trump was forced to temporarily suspend sanctions on shipped Russian oil to ease the economic backlash. The result has been tankers laden with Russian oil bound for China making U-turns in the open ocean to divert to India, as countries scramble to grab Russian oil cargoes out at sea. The price of Urals crude has bounced.

Putin “hasn’t achieved his goals in Ukraine and will therefore use anything, including the war [in Iran] and lies to achieve his vision, press with his ultimatums,” Romanenko said.

The Kremlin “doesn’t pursue a breakthrough in this war, doesn’t help Iran break the United States and Israel,” Ruslan Suleymanov, an associate fellow at the New Eurasian Strategies Center, a US-British think tank, told Al Jazeera.

The current intelligence and military aid is “more of a goodwill gesture, an attempt to create an illusion of help, to show Tehran that despite the lack of formal commitments, Russia doesn’t leave its friend in need”, he said.

And Tehran fully understands how insufficient Moscow’s aid is – and therefore relies on its own stratagem of expanding hostilities to the entire region through strikes on neighbouring states and of crippling the global economy with soaring oil prices.

“Iranians understand that the forces are not equal and it’s impossible to defeat the United States and Israel on the battlefield, and no Russian aid is going to help,” he said.

It seems that Trump’s assessment that Moscow “might be helping them a bit” may not be too far wide of the mark.

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