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Contributor: Russia wants what it cannot have

Vladimir Putin is on a roll the past few weeks. First President Trump invited him to Anchorage. Then he got a three-way hug with China’s President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in China. And an invitation to a grand military parade in Beijing.

Since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, Putin had been shunted to the fringes of summit group photos. After Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, he had been treated as a pariah by the United States and Europe. Indicted by the International Criminal Court on charges of genocide, he could travel only to countries that wouldn’t arrest him. In short, Moscow was not being treated with the respect it believed it deserved.

Trump thought that by literally rolling out the red carpet for Putin in Alaska — and clapping as the Russian loped down the red carpet — he could reset the bilateral relationship. And it did. But not the way Trump intended.

The Alaskan summit convinced the Russians that the current administration is willing to throw the sources of American global power out the window.

Trade partners, geopolitical allies and alliances — everything is on the table for Trump. The U.S. president believes this shows his power; the Russians see this as a low-cost opportunity to degrade American influence. Putin was trained by the KGB to recognize weakness and exploit it.

There is no evidence that being friendly to Putin and agreeing with Russian positions are going to make Moscow more willing to stop fighting in Ukraine. Overlooking Russia’s intensifying hybrid attacks on Europe, in February, Vice President JD Vance warned Europe that it should be focusing instead on the threat to democracy “from within.” This followed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth‘s assurances that Ukraine would never join NATO. Trump has suggested that U.S. support for NATO and Europe is contingent on those countries paying up. In an event that sent Moscow pundits to pop the Champagne, Trump told Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office that he just didn’t “have the cards” and should stop trying to beat Russia.

Did any of this bring Putin to the negotiating table? No.

In fact, the Kremlin indicated a readiness to talk with Trump about the war only when Trump threatened “very, very powerful” sanctions in mid-July. This time, he seemed serious about it. The Alaska summit happened a month later. The tougher Trump is with Russia, the more likely he is to get any kind of traction in negotiations. It’s unfortunate that the president has now gone back to vague two-week deadlines for imposing sanctions that never materialize.

Russia believes it will win the war. China has been a steady friend, willing to sell Russia cars and dual-use technology that ends up in drones that are attacking Ukrainian cities. It has also become Russia’s largest buyer of crude oil and coal. Western sanctions have not been biting the Russian economy, though they have nibbled away at state revenues. Europe and the United States have not been willing to apply the kind of economic pressure that would seriously dent Russia’s ability to carry on the war.

Putin keeps saying that a resolution to the war requires that the West address the “root causes” of the war. These causes, for Russia, relate to the way it was treated after losing the Cold War. The three Baltic nations joined Europe as fast as they could. Central and Eastern European countries decided that they would rather be part of NATO than the Warsaw Pact. When Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine started asking for membership in the European Union and NATO, Russia realized it wouldn’t be able to convince them to stay with economic appeal or soft power. It had to use force. Unable to demonstrate the attraction of its suffocating embrace, or the value of its Eurasian Economic Union, Russia believed it had to use force to keep Ukraine by its side. It reminds one of a grotesque Russian expression: “If he beats you, it means he loves you.”

The real “root cause” of the war in Ukraine is Russia’s inability to accept that centuries of empire do not confer the right to dominate former colonies forever. Mongolia learned this. As did the British. And the French. And the Ottomans. The Austro-Hungarians.

Eventually this war will end. But not soon. Russia is insisting on maximalist demands that Ukraine cannot agree to, which include control over territory it hasn’t managed to occupy. Ukraine will not stop fighting until it is sure that Russia will not attack again. Achieving that degree of certainty with flimsy security guarantees is impossible.

In the meantime, Ukrainian cities on the frontline will continue being wiped out, citizens in Kherson will continue being subjects of “human safari” for Russian drone operators, people across Ukraine will continue experiencing daily air raids that send them scurrying into shelters. Soldiers, volunteers, civilians and children will continue dying. Trump appears to care about the thousands of daily casualties. Most of these are Russian soldiers who have been sent to their death by a Russian state that doesn’t see their lives as worth preserving.

Trump is understandably frustrated with his inability to “stop the killing” because he has assumed that satisfying Russian demands is the answer. The opposite is true: Only by showing — proving — to Russia that its demands are unattainable will the U.S. persuade the Kremlin to consider meaningful negotiations. Countries at war come to the negotiating table not because they are convinced to abandon their objectives. They sit down when they realize their goals are unattainable.

Alexandra Vacroux is the vice president for strategic engagement at the Kyiv School of Economics.

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Ideas expressed in the piece

  • Putin has successfully leveraged recent diplomatic engagements to break out of international isolation, using meetings with Xi Jinping and Modi, along with Trump’s invitation to Alaska, to demonstrate that Western attempts to sideline Russia have failed. These high-profile gatherings signal to the world that Russia remains a significant player on the global stage despite sanctions and international legal proceedings.

  • Trump’s accommodating approach toward Putin represents a fundamental misreading of Russian psychology and strategic thinking, as Putin was trained to recognize and exploit weakness rather than respond to friendship with reciprocal gestures. The president’s willingness to question support for NATO and suggest contingent relationships with allies signals to Moscow that American global influence can be degraded at low cost.

  • Russia only demonstrates willingness to engage in meaningful negotiations when faced with credible threats of severe consequences, as evidenced by the Kremlin’s indication of readiness to talk only after Trump threatened “very, very powerful” sanctions in July. Conversely, accommodating gestures and vague deadlines for sanctions that never materialize encourage Russian intransigence.

  • The fundamental driver of the conflict stems from Russia’s inability to accept the end of its imperial dominance over former territories, not the grievances about post-Cold War treatment that Moscow frequently cites. Russia’s resort to force against Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova reflects its failure to maintain influence through economic appeal or soft power, revealing an outdated imperial mindset that refuses to acknowledge former colonies’ right to self-determination.

  • Meaningful negotiations will only occur when Russia recognizes that its maximalist territorial and political demands are unattainable through military means, requiring sustained pressure rather than premature concessions. Current Russian demands for control over territory it hasn’t occupied and Ukraine’s complete capitulation demonstrate that Moscow still believes it can achieve total victory.

Different views on the topic

  • The Russia-China partnership faces significant structural limitations that constrain the depth of their cooperation, despite public declarations of “no limits” friendship. While both nations conduct joint military exercises and maintain substantial trade relationships, their military collaboration remains “carefully managed and circumscribed by each nation’s broader strategic interests,” with no mutual defense agreements or deep operational integration between their armed forces[1].

  • India’s apparent warming toward China and Russia reflects strategic autonomy principles rather than genuine alignment toward an anti-Western axis, as fundamental tensions between New Delhi and Beijing persist over unresolved border disputes and strategic competition in the Indian Ocean region[2]. Recent diplomatic gestures may be tactical responses to trade tensions rather than indicators of a permanent realignment away from partnerships with Australia, Japan, the European Union, and other democratic allies[2].

  • The potential for wedging strategies between Russia and China remains viable due to underlying structural tensions and competing interests, particularly in Central Asia where both powers seek influence. American policymakers increasingly recognize that the “reverse Nixon” approach of driving wedges between Moscow and Beijing could exploit inherent limitations in their partnership, as their relationship represents neither unlimited friendship nor a completely stable alliance[4][5].

  • China’s military cooperation with Russia serves Beijing’s interests in testing tactics and equipment while maintaining careful distance from direct involvement in conflicts that could jeopardize its broader strategic goals[1]. Chinese support for Russian drone production and dual-use technology transfers reflects calculated assistance that stops short of full military alliance, suggesting Beijing prioritizes its own strategic flexibility over unconditional support for Russian objectives[3].

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U.K.’s top diplomat gets a warning for illegal fishing with Vice President JD Vance

British Foreign Secretary David Lammy went fishing with U.S. Vice President JD Vance earlier this month and the closest thing he came to catching was a whopping fine.

Lammy was given a written warning for fishing without a license, an Environment Agency spokesperson said Friday.

As far as breaking the law goes, it was pretty small fry but could have netted him a fine of up to 2,500 pounds ($3,380) for the offense.

Lammy, whose spokesperson described it all as an “administrative oversight,” purchased a license after-the-fact and reported himself to the agency.

Lammy hosted Vance and his family, who were vacationing in England, at his country estate south of London on Aug. 8. The two men smiled and laughed as Vance provided what Lammy called Kentucky-style fishing tips.

Apparently, the pointers didn’t help Lammy land a fish.

“The one strain on the special relationship is that all of my kids caught fish, but the foreign secretary did not,” Vance later said.

The Environment Agency would not comment on whether Vance had a license, citing data protection rules. The vice president’s spokesperson did not immediately reply to an email from the Associated Press seeking comment.

The agency said it confirmed that Lammy was given a warning because he had publicized it. In England and Wales, anyone over 13 needs a license for freshwater fishing, the agency said.

In most cases, inexperienced anglers caught without a permit are given warnings — so in that sense, Lammy apparently had some beginner’s luck.

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JD Vance went kayaking for his birthday. Secret Service had the river level raised

Vice President JD Vance’s security detail had an Ohio river’s water level raised to accommodate a kayaking trip he and his family took to celebrate his 41st birthday earlier this month.

The U.S. Secret Service said it requested the increased waterflow for the Little Miami River, first reported by the Guardian, to ensure motorized watercraft and emergency personnel “could operate safely” while protecting the vice president, whose home is in Cincinnati.

But critics immediately blasted the action as a sign of the vice president’s entitlement, particularly given the Trump administration’s focus on slashing government spending.

Richard W. Painter, who served as chief White House ethics lawyer under President George W. Bush, said on X that “it’s outrageous for the Army Corps of Engineers to spend taxpayer money to increase water flow in a river so @VP can go canoeing when budget cuts to the National Park Service have severely impacted family vacations for everyone else.”

The Army Corps of Engineers declined to address any financial impact of raising the river. Spokesman Gene Pawlik said the agency’s Louisville District temporarily increased outflows from the Caesar Creek Lake in southwest Ohio into the Little Miami “to support safe navigation of U.S. Secret Service personnel.” He said the move met operational criteria and fell within normal practice.

“It was determined that the operations would not adversely affect downstream or upstream water levels,” he said in a statement. “Downstream stakeholders were notified in advance of the slight outflow increase, which occurred Aug. 1, 2025.” Vance’s birthday was on Aug. 2.

Vance spokesman Taylor Van Kirk said the vice president was unaware the river had been raised.

“The Secret Service often employs protective measures without the knowledge of the Vice President or his staff, as was the case last weekend,” she said via text.

The sprawling 2,830-acre Caesar Creek Lake has an unlimited horsepower designation and five launch ramps, according to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources website. A marina, a campground and a lodge are also located on site. The department provided two natural resources officers to assist the Secret Service with the Vance event, spokesperson Karina Cheung said.

The Vance family has already become accustomed to certain accommodations being made as they move about the world. During a recent trip to Italy, the Roman Colosseum was closed to the public so that his wife, Usha, and their children could take a tour, sparking anger among some tourists. The Taj Mahal also was closed to visitors during the Vance family’s visit to India.

Such special treatment isn’t reserved for one political party.

When Democratic Vice President Al Gore, then a presidential candidate, paddled down the Connecticut River for a photo opportunity in 1999, utility officials had opened a dam and released 4 billion gallons of water to raise the river’s level. That request too came after a review of the area by the Secret Service — and Gore also experienced political pushback.

Gore’s campaign said at the time that he did not ask for the water to be released.

Smyth writes for the Associated Press.

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Vice President JD Vance is on the road again to sell the Republicans’ big new tax law

Vice President JD Vance used a speech in his home state on Monday to promote the GOP’s sweeping tax-and-border bill as a small group of protesters outside a northeast Ohio steel plant brandished signs critical of the administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein investigation.

Vance spoke to a crowd of steel workers in neon green, orange, yellow and red hard hats and safety glasses gathered inside a rolling mill at Metallus Inc. in Canton, about 60 miles from Cleveland. It was his second trip this month as chief promoter of the hodgepodge of conservative priorities that Republicans have dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Echoing themes expressed at an industrial machine shop in West Pittston, Pa., Vance said American workers should be able to keep more of their pay in their pockets and U.S. companies should be rewarded when they grow. He highlighted the law’s new tax deductions on overtime and its breaks on tipped income.

Vance decried Democrats — including U.S. Rep. Emilia Sykes, whose competitive House district he was visiting — for opposing the bill that keeps the current tax rates, which would have otherwise expired later this year.

The legislation cleared the GOP-controlled Congress by the narrowest of margins, with Vance breaking a tie vote in the Senate for the package that also sets aside hundreds of billions of dollars for Trump’s immigration agenda while slashing Medicaid and food stamps.

The vice president is also stepping up his public relations blitz on the bill as the White House tries to deflect attention from the growing controversy over Jeffrey Epstein.

The disgraced financier killed himself, authorities say, in a New York jail cell in 2019 as he awaited trial on sex trafficking charges. Trump and his top allies stoked conspiracy theories about Epstein’s death before Trump returned to the White House and are now reckoning with the consequences of a Justice Department announcement earlier this month that Epstein did indeed die by suicide and that no further documents about the case would be released.

Vance insisted that the administration of President Trump isn’t trying to cover up information from the investigation that’s in the public interest.

Vance said Trump asked Atty. Gen. Pam Bondi to release all “credible information” but that the process “takes time.” The Justice Department has asked for grand jury transcripts to be made public, but a judge in Florida has rejected that bid while requests remain pending in New York.

Vance said Trump, who was an acquaintance of Epstein before they had a falling out, wants “full transparency” in the case and alleged that prior administrations went “easy on this guy.” A few heads could be seen nodding amid the crowd.

Questions about the case continued to dog Trump in Scotland, where he on Sunday announced a framework trade deal with the European Union.

Asked about the timing of the trade announcement and the Epstein case and whether it was correlated, Trump responded: “You got to be kidding with that.”

“No, had nothing to do with it,” Trump told the reporter. “Only you would think that.”

The White House sees the new law as a political boon, sending Vance to promote it in swing congressional districts that will determine whether Republicans retain their House majority next year.

In a navy jacket and white shirt unbuttoned at the collar, Vance leaned into folksy word choices and characterized the administration’s immigration crackdown as an effort to keep gangs trafficking deadly fentanyl out of the country.

Vance’s decision to visit Sykes’ district comes as the National Republican Congressional Committee has named her narrowly split district as a top target this cycle. His northeastern Pennsylvania stop was in the district represented by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, a first-term lawmaker who knocked off a six-time Democratic incumbent last fall.

A spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee called his visit “another desperate attempt to lie to Ohioans about the devastating impact the Big, Ugly Law will have on working families,” in a statement.

In the statement, Katie Smith said Sykes “fought tooth and nail against this disastrous law.”

Polls before the bill’s passage showed that it largely remained unpopular, although the public approves of some individual provisions such as increasing the child tax credit and allowing workers to deduct more of their tips on taxes.

Smyth and Kim write for the Associated Press.

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Vice President JD Vance rips Newsom, Bass and mocks Padilla during visit to Los Angeles

Vice President JD Vance on Friday castigated Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass, arguing that the elected leaders are endangering the lives of law enforcement officers because of their opposition to federal immigration raids in Los Angeles and surrounding communities.

Vance, while meeting with federal, state and local officials in Los Angeles Friday afternoon, justified President Trump’s decision to seize control of California National Guard troops from Newsom and deploy them in Los Angeles, a decision that triggered a legal battle between state and federal officials.

“What happened here was a tragedy,” Vance told reporters. “You had people who were doing the simple job of enforcing the law, and you had rioters, egged on by the governor and the mayor, making it harder for them to do their job.”

Although Newsom and Bass have criticized the immigration raids, which led to protests and sporadic violent attacks against law enforcement officials, both have repeatedly urged demonstrators to remain peaceful.

Bass, who did not meet with Vance, dismissed his description of what has unfolded in Los Angeles over the last two weeks.

“Unfortunately, the vice president did not take time to learn about our city and understand that our city is a city of immigrants from every country and continent on the planet,” Bass said at a news conference Friday evening. “But then again, he did need to justify the hundreds of millions of wasted taxpayer dollars that were wasted in the performance of a stunt.

“How dare you say that city officials encourage violence,” Bass said. “We kept the peace.”

Newsom weighed in repeatedly on the social media platform X, notably about Vance calling Sen. Alex Padilla “Jose” during his remarks.

Padilla was dragged to the ground by federal law enforcement officers and briefly detained when he attempted to ask U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem a question during a press conference earlier this week.

“I was hoping Jose Padilla would be here to ask a question, but unfortunately I guess he decided not to show up because there wasn’t a theater, and that’s all it is,” Vance said.

A spokesperson for Padilla responded that Vance, as a former colleague of Padilla in the U.S. Senate, “knows better.”

“He should be more focused on demilitarizing our city than taking cheap shots,” spokesperson Tess Oswald posted on X. “Another unserious comment from an unserious administration.”

Vance’s visit to Los Angeles was unexpected but is reportedly coinciding with a political fundraiser at the Republican National Committee’s annual summer retreat taking place in Beverly Hills. Tickets cost up to $445,000, according to NOTUS, a nonprofit news group.

Vance landed at LAX around 1:35 p.m. and toured the Federal Building Command Center, an FBI Mobile Command Center that is currently being used by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. He was briefed by officials from the Department of Defense, the Drug Enforcement Administration, the Department of Homeland Security, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, the Los Angeles Police Department and the California Highway Patrol.

Reporters traveling with the vice president were told they not allowed to cover Vance’s meetings with officials there because the facility contained classified information. Vance was also scheduled to meet with Marines during his visit.

During his visit with federal officials, Vance called Newsom and Bass’ actions during the protests “disgraceful,” referred to the actions as “riots” and said that was why Trump decided to deploy troops from the California National Guard.

“We have to remember that the day that the riots started, before there was ever a single national guardsman, before the president of the United States had sent in additional resources, you had law enforcement officers that were being captured and beaten by a violent mob, egged on by Gavin Newsom and other officials,” Vance said. “It was necessary to send in the National Guard to stop that process to bring some order back to this great city.”

Newsom criticized the federal raids, saying they violated Trump’s vow to target violent, criminal immigrants, but also urged Californians protesting the actions to do so peacefully and said those who engaged in lawlessness would be arrested.

During protests in downtown Los Angeles, federal agents stood guard around federal buildings that were the focus of protesters. Los Angeles police officers, as well as officers from other local police agencies and the California Highway Patrol, responded in large numbers and repeatedly moved demonstrators away from National Guard troops, pushing the crowds to undulate across downtown’s civic center.

Standing next to U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, Bill A. Essayli, and FBI Assistant Director Akil Davis, Vance defended the deployment of Marines and National Guard troops in Los Angeles.

“That’s why we’re here, that’s why these guys are standing beside me,” Vance said. “That’s why we have close to 5,000 soldiers and Marines from the Department of Defense. It’s because we’ve got to enforce the law.”

The visit comes as California and federal officials battle in court over control of the California National Guard. Trump federalized the troops over the objections of Newsom and sent them to L.A. after immigration raids sparked protests.

On Thursday, the U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals kept control of the troops in Trump’s hands while the issue is litigated in federal court. On Friday, a federal judge in San Francisco asked attorneys for the federal and state governments to submit briefs by noon on Monday about the Posse Comitatus Act, which largely prohibits the use of federal military forces in civilian law enforcement, and the length of time the California National Guard is under control of the federal government.

Atty. Gen. Rob Bonta has vowed to continue fighting the Trump administration over the decision.

The clash has left Newsom and officials in the Trump administration trading barbs in interviews and social media. Vance appears unlikely to meet with the highest elected official of the country’s most populous state.

“We’re always open to working together — which makes it all the more disappointing that the White House chose not to engage with us directly ahead of the visit,” a statement from the governor’s office read. “We’ve yet to receive any official notice of the Vice President’s trip — which, from what we understand, is focused on a high-dollar fundraiser.”

Newsom later released a video on X, addressing Vance directly and urging the vice president to meet with victims of the Palisades and Altadena fires.

“It’s been months now since some of the most devastating wildfires in U.S. history occurred — tens of thousands of lives completely torn asunder,” Newsom said in the video. “I hope you have an opportunity to spend some quality time with some of the victims of the families in the Palisades and also spend some time in Altadena, which is incredibly important.”

Newsom also urged Vance to speak with Trump about comments the president made earlier this week, suggesting he would cut disaster relief for the fires because of the ongoing feud with Newsom.

“It’s honestly important as well, and I honestly mean this, that you sit down with the president of the United States, who just a couple of days ago suggested that these American citizens may not get the support that other citizens get all across this country in terms of disaster relief,” Newsom said. “I hope we get that back on track. We’re counting on you, Mr. Vice President.”

Times staff writer Julia Wick and Dave Zahniser contributed to this report.

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