Ursula von der Leyen

France has been mired in political turmoil since Macron dissolved the National Assembly in June 2024 – and on Friday, Paris was effectively sidelined at a turning point moment for the European Union, as it failed to stop the Mercosur agreement.

After weeks of farmers’ protests and under the threat of a no-confidence vote at home, Macron chose to oppose a deal negotiated by the European Commission over 25 years with Mercosur countries Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay.

If implemented, the agreement would create a 700 million-strong free-trade area, opening new markets for EU companies at a time when the bloc’s largest trading partner, the US, is becoming more inward-looking.

The countries who backed the deal, led by Germany, Spain and the Commission itself, proved determined to confront mounting global economic tensions by diversifying trade ties beyond the US and China despite protests from farmers, who for years have warned the deal could expose them to unfair competition from Latin American imports.

France in particular amplified those concerns, piling pressure on the Commission, which holds exclusive EU competence over trade policy.

According to one EU diplomat who spoke to Euronews on condition of anonymity, France on Friday thanked the Commission for the concessions it had made to farmers over the past year but ultimately justified its continued opposition to the deal with a reference to political reasons.

The signature ceremony between the EU and the Mercosur countries will take place on January 17 in Asunción, Paraguay, sources familiar with the matter told Euronews.

As expected, Italy – whose support France needed to secure a blocking minority of four member states representing 35% of the EU population – backed the agreement.

But Italy also emerged with tangible gains for its farmers, securing all the guarantees France had pushed for, including early access to €45 billion from the Common Agricultural Policy and a retroactive freeze of the EU carbon border tax on fertilisers.

For von der Leyen, the outcome marks a victory too.

The Commission aggressively pushed the deal for a year, jumping hurdles to reach a technical and political agreement. Von der Leyen was relentless despite the opposition from Paris, which in the past would have been enough to make the Commission back down facing the ire of the French government.

Former Commission President Jean-Claude Junker famously used to say, “La France…C’est la France!”, referring to Paris’ habit of getting its way under the EU’s indulgence. Those days now appear to be coming to an end.

Von der Leyen capitalises on Macron’s weakness

Macron’s shock decision to dissolve the National Assembly in June 2024 stunned European partners and altered the balance in Brussels. Von der Leyen, now heading the EU executive for a second term, has moved to sideline the French president despite his decisive backing for her appointment in 2019.

Just three months after the dissolution, she capitalised on Macron’s weakened position to push out Thierry Breton, a powerful French commissioner seen as too dominant.

Breton was the architect of two landmark EU digital laws, the Digital Markets Act and the Digital Services Act, and a relentless defender of French interests in Brussels as well as a critical voice within von der Leyen’s College of Commissioners where disagreements with the chief are not often tolerated.

Still, Macron agreed to replace him with one of his oldest allies, Stéphane Séjourné, a former Renew leader in the European Parliament who served as French foreign minister from January to September 2024.

In Brussels, Séjourné is viewed as less influential his predecessor. Where Breton’s former portfolio also covered digital policy, defence and space, Séjourné now holds a far narrower portfolio focused on industrial strategy and the single market.

France’s waning influence has not gone unnoticed among diplomats from other countries, who have grown accustomed to seeing the bloc’s second-largest member paralysed by political fragmentation and partisan infighting.

The government’s painful efforts to rein in soaring debt and deficits have prompted diplomats to joke that France has become “the most frugal member state” – a major break from its traditional embrace of heavy public spending.

Good ideas, bad timing for Emmanuel Macron

The French president now finds himself in an awkward position.

Paris still retains enough clout to sway key discussions, most notably when it comes to the “Made In Europe” preference, long advocated by Macron and now widely endorsed by other leaders as a counterweight against foreign competition.

On foreign policy, Macron has continued to shape Europe’s key debates. He made headlines as the first European leader to raise the prospect of deploying national forces to Ukraine; initially dismissed as unrealistic, the idea gained new traction after Donald Trump returned to the White House and upended US policy toward Russia.

The notion of an on-the-ground deployment was soon picked up by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, since when the two leaders have co-led the “Coalition of the Willing” to design security guarantees for Ukraine.

Earlier this week, both Starmer and Macron signed a declaration of intent with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to establish a multinational force in the event of a ceasefire.

Still, the Mercosur deal exposes his weaknesses where it hurts him the most – at home.

Jorge Liboreiro contributed reporting.

Published on 08/01/2026 – 20:28 GMT+1
•Updated
20:33

France is set to reject the Mercosur deal in a vote among EU member states, after months of efforts by Paris to build a blocking minority against the contentious accord.

If, as signals suggest, Italy backs the agreement, it would represent a severe diplomatic defeat for Macron, whose strategy to derail the deal would collapse.

“France has decided to vote against the signing of the agreement between the European Union and the Mercosur countries,” Macron posted on X.

He said the “EU-Mercosur agreement is a deal from another era, negotiated for too long on outdated foundations,” adding that the economic benefits “would be limited for French and European growth.”

“It does not justify exposing sensitive agricultural sectors that are essential to our food sovereignty,” he wrote.

Paris failure to build a blocking minority

The Mercosur agreement was clinched in December 2024 by Commission President Ursula von der Leyen with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, aiming to create a free-trade area of about 700 million people across the Atlantic after more than 25 years of negotiations.

France has opposed the deal at every phase, citing concerns about unfair competition from Latin American imports and under pressure domestically from its farmers.

Amid rising geoeconomic tensions, supporters led by Germany and Spain have pushed for a swift signing to open new export markets.

The signature was postponed following an EU summit last month after Italy and France expressed reservations. The Commission suggested these issues could be addressed and the signature would go ahead in January.

Paris intensified efforts in recent weeks to assemble a blocking minority, securing backing from Poland, Hungary, Ireland and possibly Austria. But Italy’s position remained decisive in the run-up to Friday’s vote at a meeting of EU ambassadors in Brussels.

After a series of concessions from the European Commission, including strengthened safeguards to monitor market disruptions and early cash payments for farmers, Italy appears to have shifted toward the deal’s supporters.

If a qualified majority backs the agreement, it would mark the first time France has been outvoted at the Council, which represents member states in Brussels – another blow for Macron as he grapples with a deep political crisis at home.

Italy called on Wednesday in a letter to EU’s Agriculture Commissioner ChristopheHansen to lift the bloc’s carbon border tax in order to ease pressure on fertilizer prices for European farmers. The date for the Mercosur signature is still not clear.

Expectations for Rome to greenlight the trade deal had risen in Brussels after European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen pledged on Tuesday to unlock additional funding for farmers to the tune of €45 billion as soon as 2028 in a designed to sway the pivotal support of the Italian government in favour of the deal.

“If in today’s meeting these conditions are certified by the Commission, Italy will support the deal (Mercosur),” Meloni’s agriculture minister Francesco Lollobrigida told reporters in Brussels.

Italy’s request comes as the Commission convened EU agriculture ministers in Brussels on Wednesday for talks on the future Common Agricultural Policy funding -a key piece of the common budget and highly sensitive to domestic politics – and reciprocity in production standards between Latin America and Europe, a key French demand.

France still opposes the Mercosur deal.

Farmers furious as Mercosur enters final stretch

The Mercosur agreement would create a free-trade area between Latin America, including heavyweight economy Brazil and the EU, cutting tariffs across sectors the board for European companies but also opening market access to Latin America.

Italian farmers, alongside France, Poland and Ireland, fear the deal with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay will expose them to unfair competition.

Italy’s backing of the deal is essential to reach a qualified majority of member states needed to support it, or a blocking minority as a tiebreaker.

This is a developing story.

Published on 18/12/2025 – 23:27 GMT+1
•Updated
23:35

Following tense negotiations among the 27 member states, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Thursday pushed the signature of the contentious Mercosur agreement to January to the frustration of backers Germany and Spain.

The trade deal dominated the EU summit, with France and Italy pressing for a delay to secure stronger farmer protections, while von der Leyen had hoped to travel to Latin America for a signing ceremony on 20 December after securing member-state support.

Without approval, the ceremony can no longer go ahead. There is not set date.

“The Commission proposed that it postpones to early January the signature to further discuss with the countries who still need a bit more time,” an EU official told reporters.

After a phone call with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said she supported the deal, but added that Rome still needs stronger assurances for Italian farmers. Lula said in separate comments that Meloni assured him the trade deal would be approved in the next 10 days to a month.

The Mercosur agreement would create a free-trade area between the EU and Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. But European farmers fear it would expose them to unfair competition from Latin American imports on pricing and practices.

Meloni’s decision was pivotal to delay

“The Italian government is ready to sign the agreement as soon as the necessary answers are provided to farmers. This would depend on the decisions of the European Commission and can be defined within a short timeframe,” Meloni said after speaking with Lula, who had threatened to walk away from the deal unless an agreement was found this month. He sounded more conciliatory after speaking to Meloni.

Talks among EU leaders were fraught, as backers of the deal – concluded in 2024 after 25 years of negotiations – argued the Mercosur is an imperative as the bloc needs new markets at a time in which the US, its biggest trading partner, pursues an aggressive tariff policy. Duties on European exports to the US have tripled under Donald Trump.

“This is one of the most difficult EU summits since the last negotiation of the long-term budget two years ago,” an EU diplomat said.

France began pushing last Sunday for a delay in the vote amid farmers’ anger.

Paris has long opposed the deal, demanding robust safeguards for farmers and reciprocity on environmental and health production standards with Mercosur countries.

The agreement requires a qualified majority for approval. France, Poland and Hungary oppose the signature, while Austria and Belgium planned to abstain if a vote were held this week. Ireland has also raised concerns over farmer protections.

Italy’s stance was pivotal.

However, supporters of the agreement now fear prolonged hesitation could prompt Mercosur countries to walk away after decades of negotiations for good.

After speaking with Meloni, Lula said he would pass Italy’s request on to Mercosur so that it can “decide what to do.”

An EU official said contacts with Mercosur were “ongoing,” adding: “We need to make sure that everything is accepted by them.”

Italy’s silence on the Mercosur trade pact is deafening – and potentially decisive. Rome could become the kingmaker between supporters of the deal and countries seeking to block it.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen plans to fly to Brazil on December 20 to sign off the agreement. France, facing farmer anger over fears of unfair competition from Latin America, opposes the deal and wants to postpone the EU member states vote scheduled this week to allow the signature.

The trade pact with Mercosur countries – Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay – aims to create a free-trade area for 700 million people across the Atlantic. Its adoption requires a qualified majority of EU member states. A blocking minority of four countries representing 35% of the EU population could derail ratification.

By the numbers, Italy’s stance is pivotal. France, Hungary, Poland and Austria oppose the deal. Ireland and the Netherlands, despite past opposition, have not officially declared their position. Belgium will abstain.

That leaves Italy in the spotlight. A diplomat told Euronews the country is feeling expose but that may not be a bad position to be in if it plays its cards rights to get concessions.

Coldiretti remains firmly opposed to the agreement

Rome’s agriculture minister had previously demanded guarantees for farmers.

Since then, the Commission has proposed a safeguard to monitor potential EU market disruptions from Mercosur imports. The measure, backed by member states, will be voted on Tuesday by EU lawmakers at plenary session in the European Parliament in Strasbourg.

Italy’s largest farmers’ association, Coldiretti, remains firmly opposed.

“It’s going to take too long to activate this safeguard clause if the EU market is hit by a surge of Mercosur’s imports,” a Coldiretti representative told Euronews.

On the other side, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faces a delicate balancing act between farmers and Confindustria, the industry lobby, while Italy remains the EU’s second-largest exporter to Mercosur countries.

This was also made clear by Agriculture Minister Francesco Lollobrigida a few days ago in Brussels. “Many industrial sectors and parts of the agricultural sector, such as the wine and cheese producers, would have a clear and tangible benefit [from the deal]. Others could be penalized,”he said.

This is why Italy has not taken a clear stance up to now. “Since 2024, we tried to protect everybody”, Lollobrigida argued, while remaining ambiguous on the country’s position.

Supporters of the deal are wooing Meloni, seeing her as the path to get the agreement done and open new markets amid global trade obstacles, including nationalist policies in the US and China.

“As long as the Commission president is preparing to go to Brazil to the Mercosur summit, we need to do what’s necessary for that to happen,” an EU senior diplomat from a pro-deal country said.

Yet uncertainty lingers. No one wants to schedule a vote that might fail, and Italy’s prolonged silence is rattling backers, sources told Euronews.

One diplomat familiar with the matter speaking to Euronews conceded “it’s hard, looks difficult”.