The TWZ Newsletter
Weekly insights and analysis on the latest developments in military technology, strategy, and foreign policy.
Amid the apparent movement of U.S. Air Force refueling aircraft from an airbase in Qatar, the United States has urged its citizens to leave Israel immediately as the threat of a strike on Iran looms ever larger. U.S. President Donald Trump has assembled two carrier strike groups in the region as part of a significant military build-up and has continued to express doubt that Iran is serious about ending its nuclear program.
You can get a good sense of the state of play and the possible questions surrounding possible military action in our previous story here.
Available satellite imagery from yesterday indicates that the aerial refueling aircraft formerly present at Al Udeid, the major U.S. Air Force hub in Qatar, have been moved. In previous days, imagery had revealed between seven and 15 KC-135 Stratotanker aircraft at the base. However, C-17A Globemaster III transports can still be seen at the base, which would be consistent with supplies flowing in ahead of a contingency. C-130 Hercules-series transports also seen on the tarmac are likely part of the special operations presence at the airbase. Moving assets out of Al Udeid, which would be among the highest-priority targets for Iran if hostilities break out, would be expected ahead of a major U.S. operation against Tehran, as was the case last year.
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) declined to provide TWZ with any more information on movements at Al Udeid.
Meanwhile, dozens of KC-46 Pegasus and KC-135 aerial refueling aircraft are now stationed across Europe and the Middle East, including at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel.
U.S. citizens should “consider leaving Israel while commercial flights are available,” the U.S. Department of State said in an advisory message.
Meanwhile, Mike Huckabee, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, sent a message to non-essential embassy staff in the country, saying that those who wanted to leave should “do so TODAY.”
Huckabee sent the email to embassy staff at 12:04 a.m. local time, urging them to book flights for themselves and their families anywhere they could.
This “will likely result in high demand for airline seats today,” Huckabee wrote. “Focus on getting a seat to any place from which you can then continue travel to DC, but the first priority will be getting expeditiously out of the country.” It is also worth noting that a similar evacuation was ordered eight days before Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran on June 22, 2025.
Other countries have also issued similar warnings to their officials in the region, including the withdrawal of staff from the U.K. Embassy in Iran.
The official warnings came after the end of discussions between the United States and Iran over the future of Tehran’s nuclear program. These took place in Geneva yesterday but proved inconclusive. The key U.S. negotiators, Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and advisor Jared Kushner, did not issue a statement after the talks.
There is now a possibility that further discussions could be held next week.
Speaking today, Trump said that, while he doesn’t want to use force, such measures are sometimes necessary. He added that he was yet to make a decision on the Iran issue, but said he wasn’t happy with their negotiating.
In the meantime, the foreign minister of Oman, Badr Albusaidi, who has been the main mediator in the U.S.-Iran talks, has flown to Washington. This appears to be a last-ditch attempt to persuade the Trump administration to hold back from military action against Iran.
The speed with which Albusaidi departed Geneva for Washington would also seem to indicate just how close a potential U.S. military operation might be.
Albusaidi was expected to brief U.S. Vice-President JD Vance on the progress that has been made in the talks so far. Vance has apparently been identified as the most senior member of the U.S. administration to harbor significant doubts about launching a military campaign against Iran. Speaking to The Washington Post, Vance said: “The idea that we’re going to be in a Middle Eastern war for years with no end in sight — there is no chance that will happen.”
A key sticking point between the two sides in the talks has been Iran’s refusal to yield to specific U.S. demands.
Iran has refused to hand over its highly enriched uranium stockpile and has said it’s unwilling to completely terminate its right to enrich uranium domestically. Last year, Tehran said it would no longer cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and that inspectors would only be allowed to return to the country if its “right to enrich” was recognized.
Also under discussion is the fate of Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium, amounting to around 900 pounds. One option would be to ‘downblend’ it so that it’s no longer suitable for weapons production. Reports indicate that the Iranian nuclear program has made little progress since the U.S. airstrikes on its key nuclear facilities last year.
Meanwhile, U.S. military assets continue to flow into the wider region.
The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford, together with its carrier strike group, is due to arrive near the coast of Israel in the coming hours. The USS Abraham Lincoln is already sailing in waters south of Iran. The naval force in the Middle East and eastern Mediterranean is the largest in the region since five carrier battle groups assembled at the outset of Operation Iraqi Freedom in 2003, according to Washington-based think-tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
In terms of U.S. Air Force fighters, F-35A stealth jets and F-15E Strike Eagles arrived at RAF Lakenheath in England yesterday, after making transatlantic flights. From here, the fighters are well positioned to stage forward to the Middle East. The arrival at Lakenheath of 12 F-35s from Hill Air Force Base, Utah, was confirmed by open-source flight tracking data and aircraft spotters. They were joined there by 12 F-15Es from Seymour Johnson Air Force Base, North Carolina.
If these assets move to the Middle East, they would follow the 11 F-22A Raptor jets that are now at the Israeli Air Force base of Ovda, in the south of that country, according to satellite imagery. At least six more F-22s also arrived at Lakenheath earlier this week, while one of the jets from the first package was forced to turn back from its trip to Israel, apparently due to a maintenance issue. The Raptors have been deployed from Joint Base Langley Eustis, Virginia.
Also already in the Middle East are approximately 30 F-35As from Lakenheath’s 48th Fighter Wing and the Vermont Air National Guard’s 158th Fighter Wing, deployed to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Other Air Force assets in the region include two more squadrons of F-15Es, as well as F-16 fighters and A-10 attack jets. Additional aircraft are deployed to Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, in the Indian Ocean, multiple F-16s are currently deployed to Diego Garcia, satellite images show. These would be key assets in defending the island from a possible Iranian attack. As we reported last week, the United Kingdom has apparently said it would not allow the use of the island for strikes on Iran, although this position may well change. There is also significant transport activity on the island, which could indicate a larger deployment, likely of bombers, is imminent.
In the past days, U.S. military forces in the region have grown to the highest levels seen since the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, but it remains the case that there are not enough assets in place for an extended, multi-week air campaign. The full inclusion of the Israeli Air Force could and likely would change this calculus. Nevertheless, with Ford now in the Eastern Mediterranean and additional assets trickling into the region, the window for a major air operation is now cracked open.
Update: 4:41 PM Eastern –
Rubio designated Iran “as a State Sponsor of Wrongful Detention.”
“For decades the Iranian regime has cruelly detained innocent Americans and citizens of other nations to use as political leverage,” he announced on X. “Iran must end this abhorrent practice and immediately free all unjustly detained Americans.”
Negotiators from the U.S. and Iran have made “substantial progress” toward a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi told CBS News on Friday.
“Albusaidi — who has mediated several rounds of U.S.-Iran talks over the last month — told Face the Nation moderator Margaret Brennan that a ‘peace deal is within our reach.‘
He said Iran has agreed that it will ‘never, ever have … nuclear material that will create a bomb,’ which he called a ‘big achievement.’ The country’s existing stockpiles of enriched uranium would be ‘blended to the lowest level possible’ and ‘converted into fuel, and that fuel will be irreversible,’ according to Albusaidi.
And Iran is willing to grant inspectors from the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency ‘full access’ to its nuclear sites in order to verify the terms of the deal, said Albusaidi.
‘There would be zero accumulation, zero stockpiling, and full verification,’ he said. Albusaidi said that if there is a fair and endurable deal in place, he is ‘quite confident’ that even American inspectors will have access at some point in the process.
Asked if he believes enough progress has been made to avert U.S. strikes on Iran, Albusaidi responded: ‘I hope so.’ But he said ‘we need a little bit more time’ to iron out some details. Technical talks are scheduled for Monday in Vienna, and Albusaidi said he hopes that he can meet with Witkoff and Kushner a few days afterward.“
Speaking to reporters, Trump expressed displeasure with Iran.
“They don’t want to say the key words, ‘We’re not going to have a nuclear weapon,’ and they just can’t get there… So I’m not happy with the negotiation,” Trump proclaimed.
Trump insisted that Iran not enrich any uranium.
Asked if there is a risk that an attack on Iran could turn into a long conflict in the Middle East, the president said “When there’s war, there is a risk in anything, both good and bad. “I’ve had tremendous luck myself.”
More countries cancelled flights to Israel and Iran.
Meanwhile, FCDO is advising against all but essential travel to Israel.
Contact the author: thomas@thewarzone.com
