Nearly three months after the United States and Israel launched their large-scale bombing campaign against Iran and about six weeks since the April 8 ceasefire took effect, President Trump faces an inflection point. Does he return to war? Maintain the ceasefire and U.S. blockade on Iranian ports in the hope of cutting a deal on American terms? Or drop his maximalist negotiating stance?
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), an informal foreign policy advisor for the White House, continues to press for more aggressive U.S. military action. Trump’s political advisors would prefer that the war end as soon as possible to minimize political repercussions against the Republican Party in a midterm election year.
Trump seems conflicted. Despite weeks of U.S. bombardment and an ongoing naval blockade, Tehran is as protective of its nuclear program today as it was before the war began. “For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump wrote on Truth Social over the weekend. A day later, Trump took to the social media platform again to announce he suspended planned U.S. attacks on Iran to give talks more time.
Unfortunately for Trump, he’s proved to be his own worst enemy on this subject. Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium and Tehran’s effective control of the Strait of Hormuz, the regime’s two biggest cards, are a byproduct of Trump’s own policy decisions.
The first is a clear indictment of Trump’s first-term order to withdraw the United States from the Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, a highly technical accord that put Iran’s nuclear work in a box by restricting the number and quality of centrifuges it could use, capped the amount of enriched uranium it could produce and compelled Tehran to ship 97% of its stockpile out of the country. When the Trump administration scrapped that hard-won deal, Iran responded by enriching more nuclear material at a faster pace and accumulating the very stockpile the Trump administration is now seeking to neutralize.
The Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s second card, would not even be an issue today if the Trump administration had refrained from going to war in the first place. On Feb. 27, the day before the conflict began, more than 150 tankers and vessels traveled through the strait. The international waterway was open for business.
Not so today. On Thursday, a grand total of three crossings were registered in the waterway. This collapse of commerce is a consequence of Iran’s ability to harass civilian tankers so much that shipping companies no longer view the journey as worth the cost. As Adm. Brad Cooper, the top U.S. commander in the Middle East, testified to the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday: “The Iranian capability to stop commerce has been dramatically depleted through the strait, but their voice is very loud. And those threats are clearly heard by the merchant industry and insurance industry.”
By virtue of his own actions, Trump is now left with a series of policy options that range from least bad to terrible. None of them are ideal, and all of them carry some risk.
For starters, Trump could resume the war. Any renewed U.S. bombing campaign would probably expand the U.S. military’s original set of targets to include a portion of Iran’s energy infrastructure, which Trump has threatened repeatedly to hit. A U.S. invasion of Kharg Island, where 90% of Iran’s oil processing takes place, might also be up for discussion. The aim would be to destroy Iran’s remaining military capabilities and further squeeze its oil revenue until Tehran’s strategic calculus on the war shifts to Washington’s liking.
Yet there are no guarantees that doubling down on military force will work. Trump’s entire strategy has relied on a baseline assumption: The more punitive the United States is, the more likely Tehran will be to cave. Yet that simply hasn’t occurred. If anything, Iran is more dug in now than it was in the opening days of the conflict. For the regime, capitulating to Trump is as dangerous as losing the war. Why would more bombing succeed where previous bombing failed?
The risks of additional U.S. military action are considerable as well. Before the ceasefire, Iran was launching ballistic missiles and attack drones across multiple gulf Arab states, hitting Qatar’s largest natural gas processing facility, Saudi Arabia’s east-west oil pipeline and Dubai’s luxurious high-rises. As the Iranians have stated, such attacks will not only resume if Trump orders a resumption of the war but will expand to new targets, including desalination facilities and nuclear power plants. Such strikes would raise global oil and gas prices to even more absurd levels, adding to the extra $40 billion the American people are already paying for fuel since the war began.
What about continuing the status quo? While this contingency would be less costly than another round of bombing or a U.S. ground invasion, it’s unclear whether it would help or hurt negotiations toward a settlement. There’s a possibility that extending the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports could merely reaffirm the regime’s earlier decision to preserve its own shutdown of the strait. Iran is now urging Washington to end its blockade before talks on the nuclear file can be held. And it’s a mystery whether Trump’s blockade is working anyway; the U.S. intelligence community assesses that Iran could withstand this pressure point for three to four more months, which may be too long for Trump to sustain given the oil disruptions that are bound to get worse.
Striking an agreement to end the war, return the strait to open traffic and restrict Iran’s nuclear program would be the most beneficial policy for the United States with the least amount of cost attached — not quite undoing the harm from Trump’s first-term decision to scrap the nuclear deal and his second-term decision to start a war. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are passing proposals back and forth as we speak. But as of now, Trump can’t stomach agreeing to a deal that covers some of Iran’s terms, including but not limited to a shorter suspension of enriched uranium and some kind of Iranian role in the management of the strait. Even if Trump did reassess his position, he would be forced to confront the hawks in his political coalition who would consider anything short of Iran’s total surrender a failure.
In short, Trump is in an unenviable position. He’s got nobody to blame but himself.
Daniel R. DePetris is a fellow at Defense Priorities and a syndicated foreign affairs columnist.
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President Donald Trump on Monday alluded to the U.S. sending troops into Iran to retrieve its highly enriched uranium (HEU). His comments follow similar words on the same topic from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made to 60 Minutes on Sunday. Taken in aggregate, the statements suggest that there is coordinated messaging on the issue between Washington and Jerusalem and, after stalled talks with Iran, the possibility of such an operation may have been elevated.
As we stated shortly after the war kicked off, a mission into Iran to rid the country of its highly enriched nuclear material, once and for all, would be extremely risky and very complex. You can read more about these realities here. The main issue is that, by the Trump administration’s own stated objectives, the current conflict doesn’t really end until the enriched uranium, most of which is likely buried in the rubble of the underground Isfahan nuclear complex, is removed from the country. Estimates state that this stockpile, stored in scuba tank-like cylinders, is likely enough material to construct around a dozen nuclear warheads, that is if a program to fully weaponize it and construct and validate a device were to move forward.
Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump said Iran initially offered to accompany the U.S. into its facilities storing HEU that were severely damaged during last year’s Operation Midnight Hammer attacks.
However, Tehran changed its stance, Trump claimed.
“They said ‘you’re going to have to take it,’” the American president said of Iran’s initial response to the issue of recovering the uranium.
“We were going to go with them, but they changed their mind because they didn’t put it in the paper,” the president added, referring to a peace plan delivered by Iran over the weekend. “So they agree with us, and then they take it back…But I have a great plan, but the plan is they cannot have a nuclear weapon. And they didn’t say that in their letter.”
NOW – Trump claims Iran rescinded a previous offer inviting the U.S. to come in and remove all enriched uranium from the country: “They said you’re going to have to take it. We were going to go with them. But they changed their mind.” pic.twitter.com/QcaqpNsXQu
Trump also played-off the issue this weekend saying U.S. forces are watching the site closely and will kill anyone or anything that gets close to it.
‼️ Trump on the enriched Uranium : We’ll get that at some point… We have it surveilled. I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching that… If anybody got near the place, we will know about it — and we’ll blow them up. pic.twitter.com/pvcZ6vRqJQ
Speaking to 60 Minutes, Netanyahu seemed more direct about a potential ground incursion into Iran, yet evasive about the details. Asked how he envisions the highly enriched uranium will be removed from Iran, Netanyahu stated: “You go in, and you take it out.”
“With what? Special forces from Israel, special forces from the United States?” the Israeli leader was quizzed.
“Well, I’m not gonna talk about military means, but what President Trump has said to me, ‘I want to go in there.’ And I think it can be done physically. That’s not the problem. If you have an agreement, and you go in, and you take it out, why not? That’s the best way.”
Netanyahu was purposefully elusive when asked if it would require force to remove the uranium should no agreement be reached.
“Well, you’re gonna ask me these questions. I’m gonna dodge them. Because I’m not gonna talk about our military – possibilities, plans, or anything of the kind,” he proffered. “I’m not gonna give a timetable to it, but I’m gonna say that’s a terrifically important mission.”
Netanyahu says there’s still “work to be done” before Iran war ends | 60 Minutes
The Israeli government “wants Trump to order a special forces operation to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile,” Axios reported on Monday. “Israeli officials say Trump is hesitant to order such an operation because it is highly risky.”
Axios: The Israeli government wants Trump to order a special forces operation to secure Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile. Israeli officials say Trump is hesitant to order such an operation because it is highly risky.
As we have previously reported, Trump is mulling over his options to retrieve the HEU through a special operations mission. Former U.S. Central Command commander, retired Gen. Joseph Votel, also told us at the time that such an endeavor is highly risky and may not achieve its goal. You can read more about his analysis in our interview with him here.
Meanwhile, ending the hostilities remains in question as the U.S. and Iran remain far apart in ceasefire negotiations. Trump on Monday called the aforementioned recent Iranian peace offer a “piece of garbage” that he didn’t finish reading and added that the ceasefire is on “massive life support.”
Trump is “leaning toward taking some form of military action against Iran to increase pressure on the regime and force concessions on its nuclear program,” Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials.
“He will tune them up a bit,” one U.S. official told the outlet. “I think we all know where this is going,” a second U.S. official said.
Regardless, two U.S. officials told Axios they don’t think Trump would order military action against Iran before he returns from China.
President Donald Trump is likely to press President Xi Jinping over China’s approach to Iran when they meet later this week, senior US officials said Sunday. https://t.co/mxmwLrCs1w
Trump is considering Project Freedom, the effort to guide commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz that he paused after about 36 hours last week, Axios added. He is also weighing whether to “resume the bombing campaign and strike the 25% of targets the U.S. military identified but hasn’t hit yet.”
הנשיא טראמפ נפגש היום (שני) עם צוות הביטחון הלאומי הבכיר שלו כדי לדון בצעדים הבאים מול איראן, כולל אפשרות לחידוש הלחימה, לאחר שהמשא ומתן בין הצדדים הגיע למבוי סתום ביום ראשון, כך אמרו שלושה בכירים אמריקנים https://t.co/Yolz48Dxqj
Trump told Fox News that he is thinking about reconstituting Project Freedom.
“President Trump just spoke to our John Roberts a moment ago,” the network noted. “He says he is now considering renewing Project Freedom, but he says this time around the US guiding ships through the Strait of Hormuz would be just one small piece of a larger military operation.”
“He would not divulge at this time what the other pieces would be,” Roberts explained.
As we previously explained, Trump initially claimed he paused Project Freedom to give Iranian negotiators more time to respond to his peace deal. However, NBC News later reported that Trump ended the effort because Saudi officials, surprised by the operation, withdrew access to its bases and airspace.
President Trump told Fox News he is considering reviving Project Freedom, adding that U.S. naval escorts through the Strait of Hormuz would be only one component of a broader military operation. pic.twitter.com/RgLfVVRomi
Iran on Monday revealed what it claimed to be its terms, which made no mention of the uranium. They include the U.S. paying war damages to Iran, recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, the end of U.S. sanctions and the release of Iran’s blocked assets by the U.S., according to a post on X by Iran’s official IRIB state broadcaster.
🚨EXCLUSIVE Details of Iran’s response to the U.S plan, which Trump called unacceptable:
– The necessity for the U.S. to pay war damages to Iran. – Recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. – End of U.S. sanctions. -Release of Iran’s blocked assets by the U.S.
— IRIB (Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting) (@iribnews_irib) May 10, 2026
Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei described his government’s offer as reasonable.
“Is it excessive to demand an end to maritime piracy against Iranian ships?” he asked rhetorically. “To demand the release of Iranian assets unjustly held in foreign banks for years under American pressure? Our proposal for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, is that excessive? Establishing security and peace across the entire region, including Lebanon, is that excessive?” “Unfortunately, the American side still insists on positions largely built and shaped by the Zionist regime, and continues to hold its one-sided stance and unreasonable demands,” Baghaei added.
Iran’s FM Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei:
We did not demand any concessions from America; rather, we called for an end to the war and a halt to the piracy at sea against Iranian ships.
In his comments, the Iranian official was referring to the U.S. firing on and seizing Iranian-linked ships. Baghaei was also reacting to a statement made by Trump on Sunday dismissing Tehran’s latest offer. Trump has repeatedly stated his main objectives are that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon and that the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened. The future of Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal and support for proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah are other sticking points.
“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives,’” Trump announced on his Truth Social platform. “I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!”
“I have just read the response from Iran’s so-called ‘Representatives.’ I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” -President DONALD J. TRUMP pic.twitter.com/MIQDS9Ujjy
Given the wide diplomatic gap between the U.S. and Iran and statements by Trump and Netanyahu, how much longer the ceasefire can hold remains an open question.
UPDATE: 7:44 PM EDT –
Reacting to the aforementioned Wall Street Journal story about a clandestine Israeli military base set up in Iraq, that country’s military on Monday said there are currently no foreign military bases or forces operating in the country.
The Iraqi Security Media cell stated on X that “the matter pertains to an incident that occurred on 5/3/2026, during which an Iraqi security force from the Karbala Operations Command, as well as from Najaf, moved and clashed with unidentified, unlicensed detachments supported by aircraft at that time, resulting in the martyrdom of one fighter from the Iraqi security forces, the injury of two others with wounds, and the damaging of a vehicle.”
“We wish to clarify that some are attempting to exploit this incident politically, and there are escalatory statements being made without knowledge of the facts,” the post continued. “All these statements harm the reputation of Iraq and its security leadership, which affirms—and is certain—that there are no unauthorized forces or bases currently on Iraqi territory. There is significant effort being undertaken by our security units through inspection operations across all areas of responsibility. We also affirm that the necessary legal measures will be taken against anyone attempting to spread misleading information or malicious rumors that send negative messages about Iraq’s sovereignty, prestige, and the sacrifices of its security institutions.”
بيان •••• نتابع باهتمام كبير ما يتم تداوله من تصريحات وأخبار بشأن وجود قواعد وقوات غير مصرح بها على الأراضي العراقية، وتحديداً في صحراء كربلاء شرق النخيب والنجف. وسبق أن أكدنا أن الأمر يتعلق بحادثة وقعت بتاريخ 5/3/2026، حيث تحركت قوة أمنية عراقية من قيادة عمليات كربلاء…
— خلية الإعلام الأمني🇮🇶 (@SecMedCell) May 11, 2026
UPDATE: 6:36 PM EDT –
Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system “has been nearly 99% effective against missiles from Hamas and Hezbollah militants and has knocked out most missiles from Iran,” the chairman of state-owned Iron Dome maker Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd said on Monday, according to Reuters.
Rafael’s Yuval Steinitz told a conference of the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs that since the October 2023 Hamas raid on Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon have between them fired some 40,000 rockets at Israel.
“Iron Dome intercepted most of them with success rates that (are) not 100% but close to 100%. It’s around 98%, even 99%, so it’s not perfect, but almost,” Steinitz said.
Iran, he added, has fired about 1,500 ballistic missiles at Israel in two rounds of fighting since 2024 and “only several dozens” were not intercepted.
He noted that there was no shortage of missile interceptors.
The Trump administration is keeping up its economic pressure on Iran, “sanctioning another network selling and shipping Iranian oil for the IRGC,” State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott stated X. “This action marks an additional round of sanctions under Economic Fury, part of the Administration’s maximum pressure campaign.”
The Trump Administration is sanctioning another network selling and shipping Iranian oil for the IRGC. This action marks an additional round of sanctions under Economic Fury, part of the Administration’s maximum pressure campaign.
Satellite imagery from @CopernicusEU shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don’t have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 ),” Bloomberg energy and commodities columnist Javier Blas noted on X. “It looks like the longest stretch without loadings since the early days of the war.”
Kharg Island update: @CopernicusEU satellite imagery shows no supertanker loadings on May 8, May 9 and May 11 (we don’t have data for May 10 from either Sentinel 1 or Sentinel-2 🛰️). It looks like the longest stretch without loadings since the early days of the war. pic.twitter.com/yJoTzGO79j
As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, “it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park on its airfields, potentially shielding them from American airstrikes,” CBS News reported, citing U.S. officials with knowledge of the matter.
Iran also sent civilian aircraft to park in neighboring Afghanistan, the network added, saying it was not clear if military aircraft were among those flights.
Among the military hardware was an Iranian Air Force RC-130, a reconnaissance and intelligence-gathering variant of the Lockheed C-130 Hercules tactical transport aircraft.
Scoop via @CBSNews: As Pakistan positioned itself as a diplomatic conduit between Tehran and Washington, it quietly allowed Iranian military aircraft to park in its country, potentially shielding them from US airstrikes, sources told @JimLaPorta and me. Days after Trump announced…
The strikes, which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, included an attack on a refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf, WSJ said, adding that the attack took place in early April, according to the publication.
The UAE has carried out military strikes on #Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The strikes, which the UAE has not publicly acknowledged, included an attack on a refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf.https://t.co/0GJFrUdbsh
The U.S. blockade on Iranian ports remains ongoing, there was another report of ships attacked by drones in the Persian Gulf and the UAE said Iran is continuing to launch attacks against its territory.
U.S. Central Command on Monday claimed it has turned away 62 ships and disabled four attempting to run the blockade in total since the blockade began on April 13.
USS Delbert D. Black (DDG 119) monitors regional waters as it transits the Arabian Sea during enforcement of the U.S. blockade against Iran. CENTCOM forces have redirected 62 commercial ships and disabled 4 to ensure compliance. pic.twitter.com/Qw5QrTUn5R
The Ambrey maritime security firm said two ships were struck on Sunday in the Persian Gulf.
“A Panama-flagged deck cargo vessel was impacted by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) while anchored approximately 23.6 NM east-northeast of the port of Doha, Qatar,” according to an Ambrey alert. “The impact resulted in a small fire, which was subsequently extinguished by the vessel’s crew. The vessel reported damage to its conveyor system at approximately 07:15 UTC. One coast guard vessel was observed alongside, rendering assistance. No crew casualties were reported in connection with the incident. This incident occurred approximately 2.8 NM south of an additional vessel that was impacted by a projectile on the morning of 10 May. Ambrey will provide updates as new information becomes available.”
The Ambrey alert did not specify who launched the drones.
On Sunday, UAE said it was attacked by two drones launched by Iran, the latest in a string of strikes dating back to the beginning of the war on Feb. 28 and continuing even after the April 7 ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
UAE Air Defenses engaged 2 UAV’s.
The Ministry of Defense announced that on May 10, 2026, UAE air defense systems successfully engaged 2 UAV’s launched from Iran.
Since the onset of these blatant Iranian attacks, UAE air defenses have engaged a total of 551 ballistic missiles,… pic.twitter.com/yvruj6d3om
Last week, the U.S. imposed sanctions on several China-based companies, alleging that they provided “satellite imagery to enable Iran’s military strikes against US forces in the Middle East” and enabled “efforts by Iran’s military to secure weapons, as well as raw materials with applications in Iran’s ballistic missile and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) programs,” according to the Guardian.
On Monday, China lashed out at those sanctions, describing them as illegal and unilateral, Reuters reported.
“We have always required Chinese enterprises to conduct business in accordance with laws and regulations, and will firmly safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese enterprises,” spokesperson Guo Jiakun said at a regular press briefing.
Iraqi lawmakers are calling for investigation into a clandestine military outpost Israel reportedly set up in the Iraqi desert to support its air campaign against Iran. The Wall Street Journal on Saturday reported that Israel built the installation, which housed special forces and served as a logistical hub for the Israeli air force, with the knowledge of the U.S. just before the start of the war. It also included search-and-rescue teams positioned to assist any downed Israeli pilots, according to the Journal. Israeli forces fired on Iraqi troops after it was discovered, the newspaper added.
Exclusive: Israel built a secret military post in Iraq to support its campaign against Iran and launched strikes on Iraqi troops who almost found it early in the war https://t.co/f9FISMgdNs
Ahmed Majid, a Kurdish politician, “is among several lawmakers who have harshly reacted to the report of the existence of an Israeli base in the Arab country,” Iran’s official IRNA news agency reported on Monday. Majid warned “that Iraq’s sovereignty is being violated by both the United States and the Israeli regime.”
Member of Parliament Abu Turab al-Tamimi called the presence of the Israeli military base and American forces “a dangerous security scandal” and raised questions “about how enemy forces entered deep into Iraqi territory without the knowledge of border guards, the Interior Ministry, and the Joint Operations Command.”
al-Tamimi insisted that “an immediate investigation should be opened and committees should be formed to hold the perpetrators accountable,” IRNA noted.
Video emerged online purporting to show the Israeli outpost, in the Najaf desert, from a distance. The video was reportedly taken by an Iraqi soldier, though we cannot independently verify these claims.
Circulating footage claiming to show the Israeli military outpost in Iraq’s Najaf desert from a distance. The Iraqi soldier who is filming says the lights belong to two U.S. bases. The Iraqi forces appear to be keeping their distance, as reported by Al-Arabiya. https://t.co/p7tGGCyEDOpic.twitter.com/kgAfEtsGgI
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 10, 2026
However, the likelihood of an outpost like this is something we have suggested was all but assumed going back to last year’s 12 Day War.
Hezbollah released video footage on Sunday claiming to show its first-person view (FPV) drones attacking an Israeli Iron Dome air defense battery in northern Israel. The video shows what appears to be two attacks, one on a launcher and one on another launcher with several Israeli troops observed nearby. In each case, the video cuts out before any damage is seen.
“There was no public comment from the IDF, but unofficially, IDF sources could not dispute the video’s authenticity, and the visuals spoke for themselves,” the Times of Israel noted.
Hezbollah released footage showing one of its drones targeting an iron dome platform positioned in Israel northern border over the weekend. pic.twitter.com/aWBr7NiLkw
— Ariel Oseran أريئل أوسيران (@ariel_oseran) May 10, 2026
The British Royal Navy is deploying its Type 45 destroyer HMS Dragonto the Middle East to take part in a potential European post-ceasefire effort to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The vital body of water has been closed to nearly all shipping by Iran since the war broke out on Feb. 28.
The deployment comes as the U.K. and France will host the first meeting of the Strait of Hormuz coalition of defense ministers on Tuesday to map out a way forward amid the global economic impact of the Strait closure. It is also taking place as the latest round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran remains deadlocked while a shaky ceasefire holds.
“The Type 45 destroyer will forward deploy to ensure the UK can contribute to a future multinational mission to secure the critical waterway and safeguard freedom of navigation, following a sustainable ceasefire,” the Royal Navy said in a statement on Monday. “HMS Dragon can use her Sea Viper missile system to help safeguard UK assets and interests – assisted by Wildcats from 815 Naval Air Squadron equipped with Martlet missiles able to deal with the aerial drone threat.”
The Wildcats are helicopters with drone-busting capabilities that operate off Royal Navy destroyers and frigates.
The idea is that the Dragon would help set up an air defense bubble over the Strait in case a more comprehensive ceasefire breaks down. That would protect ships like the German minesweeper Fulda, which is also heading toward the region, as well as commercial vessels transiting the Strait.
As we previously reported, the Royal Navy’s Type 45 destroyer HMS Diamond used the Sea Viper system, along with guns, to take down more than a half-dozen drones launched by the Houthis in one engagement during the Iranian-backed rebel group’s campaign against Red Sea shipping in 2024.
You can see an image from that engagement below.
Royal Navy personnel aboard the HMS Diamond in action against a Houthi attack in the Red Sea. (Owen Cooban/U.K. Ministry of Defense) Owen Cooban/U.K. Ministry of Defense
The Portsmouth-based Dragon left the UK in March and has been “helping to safeguard the island of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean,” according to the Royal Navy. In our earlier reporting, we noted that the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle entered the Red Sea last week.
News about the deployment of French and U.K. vessels to the Middle East sparked a sharp warning from Iran.
“Any deployment and stationing of extra-regional destroyers around the Strait of Hormuz, under the pretext of ‘protecting shipping,’ is nothing but an escalation of the crisis, the militarization of a vital waterway, and an attempt to cover up the true root of insecurity in the region,” Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated on X. “Accordingly, it is emphasized that the presence of French and British warships, or those of any other country potentially accompanying the illegal and internationally unlawful actions of the United States in the Strait of Hormuz, will be met with a decisive and immediate response from the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, they are strongly advised not to complicate the situation further.”
Gharibabadi did not elaborate on what that response might be.
فرانسه اعلام کرده است ناو هواپیمابر «شارل دوگل» را برای آماده سازی یک ماموریت آینده همکاریهای مشترک میان پاریس و لندن با هدف تقویت آزادی کشتیرانی در منطقه تنگه هرمز، به سمت دریای سرخ و خلیج عدن فرستاده است. در همین حال، دولت انگلیس هم اعلام کرده که در همراهی با فرانسه، یکی از…
Tomorrow U.K. Defense Secretary John Healey MP will co-chair a meeting of over 40 nations, alongside his French counterpart, Minister Catherine Vautrin, for the multinational mission’s first Defense Ministers’ meeting.
“The plan is strictly defensive and, once conditions allow, will focus on restoring confidence for commercial shipping along the critical trade route,” the Royal Navy noted. “HMS Dragon could play a key role in this mission. The ship’s forward presence will help strengthen confidence among commercial shipping firms, support mine-clearance efforts, and protect vessels once hostilities have ceased.”
Removal of enriched uranium from Venezuela to be transported to the United States. (@usembassyve/X)
Mérida, May 12, 2026 (venezuelanalysis.com) – The US and Venezuelan governments, in coordination with the United Kingdom and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), completed the extraction and secure transfer of 13.5 kilograms of enriched uranium.
This radioactive material had been stored since 1991 following the decommissioning of a nuclear research reactor of the Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research (IVIC) in Miranda state.
The operation to remove the uranium, enriched over 20 percent, was carried out in late April under strict security and IAEA oversight. The shipment was transported by land to the port of Puerto Cabello, and then by sea on a British vessel to the US Department of Energy’s Savannah River Site in South Carolina.
The Venezuelan government, led by Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, released a statement on Thursday, May 7, explaining that it had “repeatedly communicated to the IAEA the need to remove the disused sources and materials that remained in the country.”
The official statement emphasized that the January 3 US military attack, in which two US missiles struck approximately 50 meters from the reactor, had “objectively increased the risk level and urgency” of extracting the radioactive material. Caracas emphasized that the transfer was carried out in accordance with safety standards and international nuclear non-proliferation treaties.
The US Embassy in Venezuela described the operation as “a victory for the United States, Venezuela, and the world.” In a statement released on Friday, the diplomatic mission praised the “decisive leadership of President Donald Trump” and the work of US on-the-ground teams that “completed in months what would have normally taken years.”
According to the official US note, the recovered material will be used for research and the development of new technologies as part of what the Trump administration calls a “nuclear renaissance.”
While the statement did not detail specific uses, the dilution and processing of highly enriched uranium can provide inputs for medical isotope production, experimentation with next-generation reactors, and fuel development for small modular reactors (SMRs), which operate at enrichment levels up to 20%.
The State Department, through Assistant Secretary for Arms Control and Nonproliferation Christopher T. Yeaw, has stated that “working alongside our DOE/NNSA, UK, IAEA, and Venezuelan counterparts, we’ve demonstrated how effective partnerships can eliminate nuclear proliferation risks and enhance global nuclear security.”
For its part, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that it provided “nuclear safety and security guidance, training, and technical expertise.” In a statement, the IAEA highlighted the risk of radioactive material “falling into the wrong hands,” while Director General Rafael Grossi praised “the professionalism of all the parties involved.”
The IAEA has provided details of the transfer of uranium enriched to just above 20 percent of the fissile isotope uranium-235 from the RV-1 reactor at IVIC, located 15 km southwest of Caracas. This level is regarded as the threshold for “highly enriched uranium” (HEU), though it is significantly below the 80 percent required for a nuclear weapon.
The RV-1 was Venezuela’s first nuclear research reactor and a pioneer project in Latin America. The initiative was established in 1960 under the vision of scientist Humberto Fernández-Morán. Its primary function was the production of radioisotopes for medical purposes, as well as for experiments in the fields of physics and biology. Following the decision to close the facility permanently in 1991, the site was converted for use as a Gamma Ray Sterilization Plant (Pegamma).
The old reactor drew renewed attention during the US January 3 bombings, which included strikes that hit IVIC facilities and also saw special forces kidnap President Nicolás Maduro.
The uranium removal marks the conclusion of Venezuela’s nuclear history, which began in the 1950s under the “Atoms for Peace” program.
President Donald Trump has warned that the United States will target any Iranian trying to reach the country’s highly enriched uranium, saying that the nuclear material is under constant surveillance by the US military.
In an interview with the syndicated TV show Full Measure that aired on Sunday, Trump appeared to play down the significance of the uranium, which is believed to be buried under the rubble of nuclear facilities, remaining in Iran for now.
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“We’ll get that at some point, whenever we want. We have it surveilled,” Trump said.
“I did a thing called Space Force, and they are watching. If somebody walked in, they can tell you his name, his address, the number of his badge … If anybody got near the place, we will know about it, and we’ll blow them up.”
Iran’s highly enriched uranium is one of the major sticking points between Washington and Tehran in ceasefire negotiations to end the 10-week US-Israel war on Iran.
The US wants Iran to transfer the uranium outside the country and completely shut down its nuclear programme, but Tehran has stressed that it will not give up its right to a domestic enrichment programme.
Several international media reports have said that the uranium remains under nuclear sites that the US bombed in June 2025, but Tehran has not confirmed the location of the nuclear material.
Last month, Trump announced that Iran had agreed to allow Washington to retrieve the uranium and bring it to the US – claims that Tehran quickly dismissed.
Trump told Reuters on April 17 that the US would work with Iran “at a nice leisurely pace, and go down and start excavating with big machinery” to retrieve the uranium stockpile at the sites.
“We’ll bring it back to the United States,” he added.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei denied Trump’s claim. “Enriched uranium is as sacred to us as Iranian soil and will not be transferred anywhere under any circumstances,” he said.
Iran is estimated to have more than 400kg (882lb) of uranium enriched at 60 percent purity.
Uranium enrichment is a complex process of isolating and garnering the most radioactive variety – isotope – of the element to produce nuclear fuel.
When enriched to around 90 percent purity, uranium can be used to make nuclear weapons.
In 2015, Iran agreed to a multilateral deal that saw Tehran scale back its nuclear programme and cap its uranium enrichment at 3.67 percent under strict international supervision in exchange for lifting sanctions against its economy.
Trump nixed that agreement – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – and started reimposing sanctions on Iran.
In response, Tehran – which denies seeking a nuclear weapon – began to advance its enrichment programme well beyond the limits set by the JCPOA.
Trump has argued that the ongoing conflict with Iran aims to prevent the country from acquiring a nuclear bomb.
Asked about the rising oil prices due to the war, Trump said: “We cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon because they’re crazy.”
The average price of one gallon (3.8 litres) of petrol or gasoline in the US has risen to more than $4.50 due to supply issues linked to the Iranian blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling inflation. It was less than $3 before the war.
Despite the truce that came into effect last month, skirmishes have erupted in the Gulf over the past week as the US continues to enforce a siege on Iranian ports amid Tehran’s Hormuz blockade.
Iranian state-affiliated news outlets reported on Sunday that Iran has delivered its response to the latest US proposal to end the war to Pakistan, which is mediating the talks.
But Trump said the war is not over while reiterating his claim that Iran has been “defeated”.
“They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done,” the US president said. “We could go in for two more weeks and do every single target. We have certain targets that we wanted, and we’ve done probably 70 percent of them, but we have other targets that we could conceivably hit.”
Uranium starts as a rock in the ground, but through a series of chemical processes and high-speed centrifuges, it can become either a city’s power source or a weapon of mass destruction.
Al Jazeera’s Basel Ghazoghli (@baselgazi) breaks down how uranium is processed, enriched, and what it takes to turn it into a nuclear weapon.
United States President Donald Trump has claimed that a new nuclear deal being negotiated with Iran will be “far better” than the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which the US withdrew from in 2018 during his first term.
On Tuesday, Trump extended the two-week ceasefire with Iran a day before it was set to expire, with hopes for a second round of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.
Key among the US demands is that Iran stop all enrichment of uranium.
Iran has always insisted its nuclear programme is for civilian use only, such as for power generation, which requires uranium enrichment of between 3 percent and 5 percent. To build nuclear weapons, uranium needs to be enriched to 90 percent.
In this explainer, we visualise what uranium is, how it is enriched and how long it could take Iran to make a nuclear weapon.
What is uranium, and which countries have it?
Uranium is a dense metal used as a fuel in nuclear reactors and weapons. It is naturally radioactive and usually found in low concentrations in rocks, soil and even seawater. About 90 percent of the world’s uranium is produced in just five countries: Kazakhstan, Canada, Namibia, Australia and Uzbekistan. Reserves of uranium have also been found in other countries.
Uranium is extracted either by digging it out of the ground or, more commonly, through a chemical process that dissolves uranium from within the rock.
Before it can be used as nuclear fuel, uranium is processed through several different forms, including:
Yellowcake: Mined ore is crushed and treated with chemicals to form a coarse powder known as yellowcake, which, irrespective of its name, is usually dark green or charcoal in colour, depending on how hot it has been treated.
Uranium tetrafluoride: Yellowcake is then treated with hydrogen fluoride gas, which turns it into emerald-green crystals known as uranium tetrafluoride or green salt.
Uranium hexafluoride: Green salt is further fluorinated to create a solid white crystal known as uranium hexafluoride. When heated slightly, this crystal turns into a gas, making it ready for enrichment.
Uranium dioxide: The gas is spun in a centrifuge machine, which chemically converts it into a fine, black powder.
Fuel pellets: The black powder is pressed to form black ceramic pellets, which can then be used in a nuclear reactor.
How is uranium enriched?
Natural uranium exists in three forms, called isotopes. They are the same element, with the same number of protons but different numbers of neutrons.
Most naturally occurring uranium (99.3 percent) is U-238 – the heaviest and least radioactive – while about 0.7 percent is U-235 and trace amounts (0.005 percent) are U-234.
To generate energy, scientists separate the lighter, more radioactive U-235 from the slightly heavier U-238 in a process called uranium enrichment. U-235 can sustain a nuclear chain reaction while U-238 cannot.
To enrich uranium, it must first be converted into a gas, known as uranium hexafluoride (UF₆). This gas is fed into a series of fast-spinning cylinders called centrifuges. These cylinders spin at extremely high speeds (often more than 1,000 revolutions per second). The spinning force pushes the heavier U-238 to the outer walls, while the lighter U-235 stays in the centre and is collected.
A single centrifuge provides only a tiny amount of separation. To reach higher concentrations – or “enrichment” – the process is repeated through a series of centrifuges, called a cascade, until the desired concentration of U-235 is achieved.
What are the different levels of uranium enrichment?
The higher the U‑235 percentage, the more highly enriched the uranium is.
Small amounts (3-5 percent) are enough to fuel nuclear power reactors, while weapons require much higher enrichment levels (about 90 percent).
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) considers anything below 20 percent to be low-enriched uranium (LEU), while anything above 20 percent is considered highly-enriched uranium (HEU).
Low enriched – less than 20 percent
Commercial grade – 3-5 percent: This is the standard fuel for the vast majority of the world’s nuclear power plants
Small modular reactors – 5-19.9 percent: Used in more modern reactors and advanced research reactors
Highly enriched – More than 20 percent
Research grade – 20-85 percent: Used in specialised research reactors to produce medical isotopes or to test materials
Weapons grade – above 90 percent: This is the level required for most nuclear weapons
Naval grade – 93-97 percent: Used in the nuclear reactors that power submarines and aircraft carriers
Depleted uranium, which contains less than 0.3 percent U‑235, is the leftover product after enrichment. It can be used for radiation shielding or as projectiles in armour‑piercing weapons.
How long does it take to enrich uranium?
The effort it takes to enrich uranium is not linear, meaning it is much more difficult to go from 0.7 percent natural uranium to 20 percent LEU than it is to go from 20 percent to 90 percent HEU. Once uranium reaches 60 percent enrichment, it becomes much quicker to reach 90 percent weapons grade.
The effort it takes to enrich uranium is measured in separative work units (SWU).
According to the IAEA, Iran is believed to have about 440kg (970lbs) of uranium enriched to 60 percent – enough to theoretically build 10 or 11 low-technology atomic bombs if refined to 90 percent.
The then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad inspecting the Natanz nuclear plant in central Iran, March 2007 [Handout/Iran President’s Office via EPA]
Ted Postol, professor emeritus of science, technology and international security at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), told Al Jazeera that before the US attack on Iran’s nuclear facility at Fordow, the country had at least 10 cascades of 174 IR-6 centrifuges in operation – meaning 1,740 IR-6 centrifuges.
The IR-6 is one of Iran’s most advanced centrifuge models. The country also has tens of thousands of older centrifuges.
Little is known about the conditions of these centrifuges or the stocks of uranium hexafluoride, which are still believed to be buried underground.
Postol has calculated that Iran’s cascade of centrifuges could produce 900 to 1,000 SWUs annually.
“Getting from natural uranium to 60 percent enrichment, which Iran has already achieved, takes roughly five years, and about 5,000 SWUs using Iran’s cascades.”
“If I want to go from 60 to 90 percent, I only need 500 SWUs. So, instead of five years, [by] starting with the 60 percent here, this might take me four or five weeks. Because I am already very enriched,” Postol said.
Using an analogy of a clock, Postol explained: “Let’s say it takes seven minutes to get 33 percent enrichment, and then eight minutes to get to 50 percent enrichment. It only takes me one minute to get to total [90 percent] enrichment.”
How easy would it be for Iran to build a nuclear weapon?
Postol said Iran’s stockpile is held underground, meaning a military strike would not necessarily eliminate the nuclear threat.
A single centrifuge cascade capable of enriching weapons-grade uranium could take up “no more floor space than a studio apartment, making it easily hidden in a small laboratory”, he said, estimating the area at 60sq metres (600sq feet).
“A single Prius Compact Hybrid car can produce enough electric power to run four or more of these cascades at a time,” Postol added, meaning “Iran can covertly convert its 60 percent uranium into weapons-grade uranium metal”.
“What they have done is put themselves in a position where anybody who thinks about attacking them with nuclear weapons has to know that they could be sitting in those tunnels after such an attack, refining [and] enriching the final step they need to build atomic weapons and converting it to metal, and building a nuclear weapon, and that they have the means to deliver it,” Postol said.
“They would have all of the technical equipment they need to build the atomic weapons. And they have the missiles, which are also in the tunnels and can be manufactured in addition to what they already have. And the atomic weapon would not need to be tested, because uranium weapons do not need to be tested before they’re used.”
What does the NPT say about enrichment?
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), established in 1968, is a landmark international agreement aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy. Iran is a signatory to this pact.
The treaty supports the right of all signatories to access nuclear technology and enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, including energy, medical or industrial purposes, with precise safeguards to ensure it is not diverted to make weapons.
Under the NPT, nuclear-weapon states agree not to transfer nuclear weapons or assist non-nuclear-weapon states in developing them. Non-nuclear-weapon states also agree not to seek or acquire nuclear weapons.
Despite this, most nuclear powers are currently modernising their arsenals rather than dismantling them.
Most of the countries are signatories, except five: India, Pakistan, Israel, South Sudan and North Korea.
What agreements has Iran made about its nuclear programme in the past?
In 2015, under the Obama administration, Iran struck a deal with six world powers — China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US — plus the European Union, known as the JCPOA.
Under the pact, Tehran agreed to scale down its nuclear programme, capping enrichment to 3.67 percent, in exchange for relief from sanctions.
“The Iranians agreed to it, and they were following the treaty. There was no problem with the treaty at all, absolutely no problem,” Postol said.
“They were allowed to have 6,000 centrifuges, which, if they had natural uranium, they could probably build a bomb within a year if they were secretly using these centrifuges, but that was all under inspection. They were just simply going to enrich to 3.67 percent, which is for a power reactor. They’re allowed to do that by the Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
But in 2018, Trump pulled out of the deal, calling it “one-sided” and reimposing sanctions on Iran. Iran responded by eventually resuming enrichment at Fordow.
After the US killed Iran’s General Qassem Soleimani in January 2020, Tehran stated it would no longer follow the set uranium enrichment limits.
Former President Joe Biden made attempts to revive the deal, but it never came to fruition due to disagreements over whether sanctions should be lifted first or Iran should rejoin the JCPOA first.
Trump has repeatedly said Iran should not have the ability to produce nuclear weapons. It has been one of Washington’s red lines during talks with Iranian officials over the past year, and was also the central justification that Washington used when it bombed Iranian nuclear facilities during the 12-day US-Israel war on Iran last year.
In the current negotiations, Iran has said it is willing to “downblend” its 60 percent enriched uranium to about 20 percent – the threshold for low-enriched uranium. The process of downblending involves mixing stocks with depleted uranium to achieve a lower percentage of enriched U-235 overall.
“From the point of view of showing goodwill, I think it’s good, it shows that the Iranians are thinking of ways to address what the Americans claim are their concerns,” Postol said.
Which countries have nuclear weapons?
Nine countries possessed roughly 12,187 nuclear warheads as of early 2026, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Approximately two-thirds are owned by two nations – Russia (4,400) and the US (3,700), excluding their retired nuclear arsenals.
Some 9,745 of the total existing nuclear weapons are military stockpiles for missiles, submarines and aircraft. The rest have been retired. Of the military stockpile, 3,912 are currently deployed on missiles or at bomber bases, according to the Federation of American Scientists. Of these, some 2,100 are on US, Russian, British and French warheads, ready for use at short notice.
While Russia and the US have dismantled thousands of warheads, several countries are thought to be increasing their stockpiles, notably China.
The only country to have voluntarily relinquished nuclear weapons is South Africa. In 1989, the government halted its nuclear weapons programme and began dismantling its six nuclear weapons the following year.
Israel is believed to possess nuclear weapons, with a stockpile of at least 90. It has consistently neither confirmed nor denied this, and despite numerous treaties, it faces little international pressure for transparency.
Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, speaks at a press briefing at the Four Seasons Hotel in Seoul on April 15. Photo by Asia Today
April 15 (Asia Today) — Rafael Grossi said Tuesday that North Korea has built a new uranium enrichment facility in the Yongbyon area, signaling a significant expansion of its nuclear capabilities.
Speaking at a press briefing in Seoul, Grossi said assessments by the International Atomic Energy Agency show North Korea’s nuclear activities have expanded across multiple facilities, including a 5-megawatt reactor, reprocessing plants and a light-water reactor.
He said the newly identified building appears similar in scale and infrastructure to the Kangson enrichment facility, indicating a substantial increase in uranium enrichment capacity.
“While it is difficult to calculate exact production levels without on-site access, the external features suggest a significant expansion,” Grossi said. “This points to a serious increase in the ability to produce dozens of nuclear warheads.”
The agency had previously monitored the construction of the facility, noting similarities in cooling and supply systems to existing enrichment sites.
Grossi also warned that nuclear weapons development fuels proliferation and accelerates arms competition, adding that such capabilities do not necessarily improve national security.
On South Korea’s potential pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines, Grossi stressed the need for strict safeguards under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
He raised concerns that nuclear material used in submarines could fall outside routine inspection regimes due to extended underwater operations, particularly if highly enriched uranium is used.
Grossi said South Korea would need to establish special procedures and coordination mechanisms with the agency to ensure transparency and prevent diversion of nuclear material.
He added that discussions with the government, navy and industry would follow if the project proceeds, noting that the development process would take years and involve multiple stages.
