Unemployment

The agency made the announcement as it confronts staffing shortages caused by air traffic controllers who are working unpaid.

The United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will reduce air traffic by 10 percent across 40 “high-volume” markets beginning Friday morning to maintain safety during the ongoing government shutdown, it has said.

The agency made the announcement on Wednesday as it confronts staffing shortages caused by air traffic controllers, who are working unpaid, with some calling out of work during the shutdown, resulting in delays across the country.

FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said the agency is not going to wait for a problem to act, saying the shutdown is causing staffing pressures and “we can’t ignore it”.

Bedford and Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said they will meet later Wednesday with airline leaders to figure out how to safely implement the reduction.

Widespread delays

The shutdown, now in its 36th day, has forced 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration officers to work without pay. This has worsened staff shortages, caused widespread flight delays and extended lines at airport security screening.

The move is aimed at taking pressure off air traffic controllers. The FAA also warned that it could add more flight restrictions after Friday if further air traffic issues emerge.

Duffy had warned on Tuesday that if the federal government shutdown continued another week, it could lead to “mass chaos” and force him to close some of the national airspace to air traffic, a drastic move that could upend American aviation.

Airlines have repeatedly urged an end to the shutdown, citing aviation safety risks.

Shares of major airlines, including United Airlines and American Airlines, were down about 1 percent in extended trading.

An airline industry group estimated that more than 3.2 million passengers have been affected by flight delays or cancellations due to rising air traffic controller absences since the shutdown began on October 1. Airlines have been raising concerns with lawmakers about the impact on operations.

Airlines said the shutdown has not significantly affected their business, but have warned bookings could drop if it drags on. More than 2,100 flights were delayed on Wednesday.

On Tuesday, FAA’s Bedford said that 20 percent to 40 percent of controllers at the agency’s 30 largest airports were failing to show up for work.

The federal government has mostly closed as Republicans and Democrats are locked in a standoff in Congress over a funding bill. Democrats have insisted they would not approve a plan that does not extend health insurance subsidies, while Republicans have rejected that.

There is no end in sight to the United States government shutdown.

At least 1.4 million workers are going without pay, while some people on federal aid are worrying about how they will get their next meal.

How can the standoff between Republicans and Democrats be resolved, and what will happen if it goes on?

Presenter: 

Adrian Finighan

Guests: 

Marena Lin – Co-founder of Project Restore Us, a volunteer-led organisation that supports communities facing food insecurity in Los Angeles

Niall Stanage – White House columnist for The Hill newspaper and digital media company in Washington, DC

Chris Tilly – Economist and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles

The United States Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 – 4.00 percent, amid signs of a slowing labour market and continued pressure on consumer prices.

The cut, announced on Wednesday, marks the US central bank’s second rate cut this year.

“Job gains have slowed this year, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August; more recent indicators are consistent with these developments. Inflation has moved up since earlier in the year and remains somewhat elevated,” the Fed said in a statement.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”

The cuts were largely in line with expectations. Earlier on Wednesday, CME Fed Watch — which tracks the likelihood of rate cuts — said there was a 97.8 percent probability of rate cuts.

After the September cut, economists had largely been expecting two additional rate cuts for the rest of this year. Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley, among others, forecast one more 25-basis-point reduction by year’s end following Wednesday’s cut. Bank of America Global Research is the only major firm that is not anticipating another 25-basis-point cut in 2025.

“The Fed has a challenging line to walk; lower interest rates to support labour markets and growth, or raise them to tamp down inflation. For now, they are taking a cautious approach tilted a bit towards the growth concerns,” Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at The Fletcher School at Tufts University in Massachusetts, told Al Jazeera.

Despite forecasts, Federal reserve chairman Jerome Powell isn’t necessarily inevitable.

“We haven’t made a decision about December,” Powell told reporters in a press conference.

“We remain well-positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments.”

Government shutdown implications

The cuts come as economic data becomes increasingly scarce amid the ongoing government shutdown, now in its 29th day as of Wednesday, making it the second-longest in US history, behind the 35-day shutdown during the first presidency of Donald Trump in late 2018 and early 2019.

Because of the shutdown, the Department of Labor did not release the September jobs report, which was scheduled for October 3. The only major government economic data released this month was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the cost of goods and services and is a key measure of inflation. The CPI rose 0.3 percent in September on a month-over-month basis to an inflation rate of 3 percent.

That data was released because the Social Security Administration required it to calculate cost-of-living adjustments for 2026. As a result, Social Security beneficiaries will receive a 2.8 percent increase in payments compared to 2025.

The shutdown, however, could have a bigger impact on next month’s central bank decision as the Labor Department is currently unable to compile the data needed for its November reports.

However, amid the limited government data, private trackers are showing a slowdown.

“We are not going to be able to have the detailed feel of things, but I think if there were a significant or material change in the economy one way or another, I think we would pick that up,” Powell said.

Consumer confidence lags

Consumer confidence fell to a six-month low, according to The Conference Board’s report that was released on Tuesday.

The data showed that lower-income earners – those making less than $75,000 a year – are less confident about the economy as fears of job scarcity loom. This comes only days after several large corporations announced waves of layoffs.

On Wednesday, Paramount cut 2,000 people from its workforce. On Tuesday, Amazon cut 14,000 corporate jobs. Last week, big box retailer Target cut 1,800 jobs. This, as furloughs and layoffs weigh on government workers. The US government is the nation’s largest employer.

Those making more than $200,000 annually remain fairly confident and are leading consumer spending that is keeping the economy afloat, according to The Conference Board.

Pressures both on consumer spending and the labour market are largely driven by tariffs weighing on consumers and businesses.

US markets are ticking up on the rate cut. The Nasdaq is up 0.5, the S&P 500 is up 0.1, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 0.26 as of 2pm in New York (18:00 GMT).

More air traffic controllers are calling in sick, often to work another job to pay for groceries and medicines.

United States air traffic controllers will miss their paycheques because of the ongoing government shutdown, raising concerns that mounting financial stress could take a toll on the already understaffed employees who guide thousands of flights each day.

Paycheques were due on Tuesday.

Flight delays are becoming more common across the country as more controllers call out sick because the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) was already so short on controllers before the shutdown.

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy and National Air Traffic Controllers Association President Nick Daniels have continued to emphasise the pressure that controllers are feeling. They say the problems are likely to only get worse the longer the shutdown continues.

Not only are controllers worrying about how to pay for their mortgages and groceries, but Daniels said some of them are also grappling with how to pay for the medicine needed to keep their children alive.

Duffy said he heard from one controller who had to tell his daughter she couldn’t join the travelling volleyball team she had earned a spot on because he couldn’t afford the cost during the shutdown.

“Air traffic controllers have to have 100 percent of focus 100 percent of the time,” Daniels said Tuesday at a news conference alongside Duffy at LaGuardia Airport in New York City. “And I’m watching air traffic controllers going to work. I’m getting the stories. They’re worried about paying for medicine for their daughter. I got a message from a controller that said, ‘I’m running out of money. And if she doesn’t get the medicine she needs, she dies. That’s the end.’”

The FAA restricts the number of flights landing and taking off at an airport anytime there is a shortage of controllers to ensure safety. Most of the time, that has meant delays — sometimes hours long — at airports like New Jersey’s Newark Liberty International Airport or Burbank Airport in California. But over the weekend, Los Angeles International Airport actually had to stop all flights for nearly two hours.

Controllers are planning to assemble outside at least 17 airports nationwide on Tuesday to hand out leaflets urging an end to the shutdown as soon as possible.

Money worries

The number of controllers calling in sick has increased during the shutdown – both because of their frustration with the situation and because controllers need the time off to work second jobs instead of continuing to work six days a week, as many of them routinely do. Duffy has said that controllers could be fired if they abuse their sick time, but the vast majority of them have continued to show up for work every day.

Air traffic controller Joe Segretto, who works at a regional radar facility that directs planes in and out of airports in the New York area, said morale is suffering as controllers worry more about money.

“The pressure is real,” Segretto said. “We have people trying to keep these planes safe. We have trainees — who are trying to learn a new job that is very fast-paced, very stressful, very complex — now having to worry about how they’re going to pay bills.”

Duffy said the shutdown is also making it harder for the government to reduce the longstanding shortage of about 3,000 controllers. He said that some students have dropped out of the air traffic controller academy in Oklahoma City, and younger controllers who are still training to do the job might abandon the career because they can’t afford to go without pay.

“This shutdown is making it harder for me to accomplish those goals,” Duffy said.

The longer the 27-day shutdown continues, the more pressure will continue to build on the US Congress to reach an agreement to reopen the government. During the 35-day shutdown in President Donald Trump’s first term, the disruptions to flights across the country contributed to the end of that disruption. But so far, Democrats and Republicans have shown little sign of reaching a deal to fund the government.

A federal judge said the layoffs by the administration of US President Donald Trump seem politically motivated and ‘you can’t do that in a nation of laws’.

A United States federal judge in California has ordered President Donald Trump’s administration to halt mass layoffs during a partial government shutdown while she considers claims by unions that the job cuts are illegal.

During a hearing in San Francisco on Wednesday, US District Judge Susan Illston granted a request by two unions to block layoffs at more than 30 agencies pending further litigation.

Her ruling came shortly after White House Budget Director Russell Vought said on “The Charlie Kirk Show” that more than 10,000 federal workers could lose their jobs because of the shutdown, which entered its 15th day on Wednesday.

Illston at the hearing cited a series of public statements by Trump and Vought that she said showed explicit political motivations for the layoffs, such as Trump saying that cuts would target “Democrat agencies”.

“You can’t do that in a nation of laws. And we have laws here, and the things that are being articulated here are not within the law,” said Illston, an appointee of Democratic former President Bill Clinton, adding that the cuts were being carried out without much thought.

“It’s very much ready, fire, aim on most of these programs, and it has a human cost,” she said. “It’s a human cost that cannot be tolerated.”

Illston said she agreed with the unions that the administration was unlawfully using the lapse in government funding that began October 1 to carry out its agenda of downsizing the federal government.

A US Department of Justice lawyer, Elizabeth Hedges, said she was not prepared to address Illston’s concerns about the legality of the layoffs. She instead argued that the unions must bring their claims to a federal labour board before going to court.

‘Won’t negotiate’

The judge’s decision came after federal agencies on Friday started issuing layoff notices aimed at reducing the size of the federal government. The layoff notices are part of an effort by Trump’s Republican administration to exert more pressure on Democratic lawmakers as the government shutdown continues.

Democratic lawmakers are demanding that any deal to reopen the federal government address their healthcare demands. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson predicted the shutdown may become the longest in history, saying he “won’t negotiate” with Democrats until they hit pause on those demands and reopen.

Democrats have demanded that healthcare subsidies, first put in place in 2021 and extended a year later, be extended again. They also want any government funding bill to reverse the Medicaid cuts in Trump’s big tax breaks and spending cuts bill that was passed earlier this year.

About 4,100 workers at eight agencies have been notified that they are being laid off so far, according to a Tuesday court filing by the administration.

The Trump administration has been paying the military and pursuing its crackdown on immigration while slashing jobs in health and education, including in special education and after-school programmes. Trump said programmes favoured by Democrats are being targeted and “they’re never going to come back, in many cases.”

The American Federation of Government Employees and American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees claim that implementing layoffs is not an essential service that can be performed during a lapse in government funding, and that the shutdown does not justify mass job cuts because most federal workers have been furloughed without pay.

Stellantis announced a $13bn investment in the US, which will see production of the Jeep Compass move to the US from Canada.

Canada has threatened legal action against carmaker Stellantis NV over what Ottawa says is the company’s unacceptable plan to shift production of one model to a United States plant.

On Wednesday, Minister of Industry Melanie Joly sent a letter to Stellantis CEO Antonio Filosa noting that the company had agreed to maintain its Canadian presence in exchange for substantial financial support.

“Anything short of fulfilling that commitment will be considered a default under our agreement,” she said. If Stellantis did not live up to its commitment, Canada would “exercise all options, including legal”, she said.

Stellantis announced a $13bn investment in the US on Tuesday, a move that it said would bring five new models to the market. As part of the plan, production of the Jeep Compass will move to the US state of Illinois from a facility in Brampton in the Canadian province of Ontario.

A copy of the letter was made available to the Reuters news agency. The existence of the letter was first reported by Bloomberg.

Stellantis had paused retooling of the Brampton plant in February, shortly after US President Donald Trump announced tariffs against Canadian goods, upending the highly integrated North American auto industry.

In a statement on Tuesday night, Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said Ottawa had made clear it expected Stellantis to fulfil the undertakings it had made to the workers at the plant.

“We are working with the company to develop the right measures to protect Stellantis employees,” he said.

Ontario is Canada’s industrial heartland and accounts for about 40 percent of its national gross domestic product (GDP).

“I have spoken with Stellantis to stress my disappointment with their decision,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on social media on Wednesday.

Stellantis spokesperson LouAnn Gosselin said the company was investing in Canada and noted plans to add a third shift to a plant in Windsor, Ontario.

“Canada is very important to us. We have plans for Brampton and will share them upon further discussions with the Canadian government,” she said in an emailed statement.

US President Donald Trump blames Democrats for looming federal layoffs as shutdown enters fifth day.

The White House has warned that mass layoffs of federal workers could begin if US President Donald Trump concludes that negotiations with congressional Democrats to end a partial government shutdown have reached a dead end.

As the shutdown entered its fifth day on Sunday, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNN’s programme State of the Union that he believed there was still a chance Democrats would yield and avoid what could become a costly political and economic crisis.

“President Trump and Russ Vought are lining things up and getting ready to act if they have to, but hoping that they don’t,” Hassett said, referring to the White House budget director. “If the president decides that the negotiations are absolutely going nowhere, then there will start to be layoffs.”

Trump, speaking to reporters on Sunday, described the potential job cuts as “Democrat layoffs”, saying, “Anybody laid off, that’s because of the Democrats.”

Talks remain frozen

There have been no meaningful negotiations since Trump last met congressional leaders, with the impasse beginning on October 1 — the start of the federal fiscal year — after Senate Democrats rejected a short-term funding bill to keep government agencies open through November 21.

“They’ve refused to talk with us,” Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer told the CBS programme Face the Nation, insisting that only renewed talks between Trump and congressional leaders could end the standoff.

Democrats are demanding a permanent extension of enhanced premium tax credits under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and assurances that the White House will not unilaterally cut spending agreed to in any deal.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said he was open to addressing the Democrats’ concerns, but urged them to first back reopening the government. “It’s open up the government or else,” Thune told Fox News. “That’s really the choice that’s in front of them right now.”

Trump said Republicans were also willing to discuss healthcare reform. “We want to fix it so it works. Obamacare has been a disaster for the people, so we want to have it fixed so it works,” Trump said.

No deal in sight

Rank-and-file senators from both parties have held informal talks on healthcare and spending to break the deadlock, but progress has been minimal. “At this point, no,” Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego told CNN when asked if lawmakers were closer to a deal.

The Senate is set to vote again on Monday on competing funding bills — one backed by the Republican-controlled House and one proposed by Democrats — though neither is expected to win the 60 votes required to advance.

According to the Congressional Budget Office, nearly 750,000 federal employees face being furloughed as long as the shutdown continues, with total lost compensation estimated at $400m per day. While federal workers are guaranteed back pay under the 2019 Government Employee Fair Treatment Act, payments will only resume once the shutdown ends.

The lawsuit claims Trump does not have the authority to override the law that created the H-1B visa programme.

A coalition of unions, employers and religious groups has filed a lawsuit seeking to block United States President Donald Trump’s bid to impose a $100,000 fee on new H-1B visas for high-skilled foreign workers.

The lawsuit filed in federal court in San Francisco on Friday is the first to challenge Trump’s proclamation issued last month announcing the fee.

The United Auto Workers union, American Association of University Professors and other plaintiffs say Trump’s power to restrict the entry of certain foreign nationals does not allow him to override the law that created the H-1B visa programme.

The programme allows US employers to hire foreign workers in speciality fields, and technology companies in particular rely heavily on workers who receive H-1B visas.

Critics of H-1Bs and other work visa programmes say they are often used to replace American workers with cheaper foreign labour. But business groups and major companies have said H-1Bs are a critical means to address a shortage of qualified American workers.

Employers who sponsor H-1B workers currently typically pay between $2,000 and $5,000 in fees, depending on the size of the company and other factors.

Trump’s order bars new H-1B recipients from entering the US unless the employer sponsoring their visa has made an additional $100,000 payment. The administration has said the order does not apply to people who already hold H-1B visas or those who submitted applications before September 21.

Trump in his unprecedented order invoked his power under federal immigration law to restrict the entry of certain foreign nationals that would be detrimental to the interests of the US.

He said that high numbers of lower-wage workers in the H-1B programme have undercut its integrity and that the programme threatens national security, including by discouraging Americans from pursuing careers in science and technology. He said the “large-scale replacement of American workers” through the H-1B programme threatens the country’s economic and national security.

‘Pay to play’

The plaintiffs argue that Trump has no authority to alter a comprehensive statutory scheme governing the visa programme and cannot, under the US Constitution, unilaterally impose fees, taxes or other mechanisms to generate revenue for the US, saying that power is reserved for Congress.

“The Proclamation transforms the H-1B program into one where employers must either ‘pay to play’ or seek a ‘national interest’ exemption, which will be doled out at the discretion of the Secretary of Homeland Security, a system that opens the door to selective enforcement and corruption,” the lawsuit said.

The groups argue that agencies, including the US Department of Homeland Security’s US Citizenship and Immigration Services and US Department of State, likewise adopted new policies to implement Trump’s proclamation without following necessary rulemaking processes, and without considering how “extorting exorbitant fees will stifle innovation”.

The H-1B programme offers 65,000 visas annually to employers bringing in temporary foreign workers in specialised fields, with another 20,000 visas for workers with advanced degrees. The visas are approved for a period of three to six years.

India was by far the largest beneficiary of H-1B visas last year, accounting for 71 percent of approved visas, while China was a distant second at 11.7 percent, according to government data.

The U.S. economy will be hampered by the Trump administration’s tariffs in the coming months, which along with interest rate cuts could lead to a “stagflation-lite” scenario of modestly elevated inflation and unemployment, according to the UCLA Anderson Forecast released Wednesday.

The fourth-quarter estimate also predicts that rising layoffs could lead to a recession, and if President Trump is successful in exerting more control over the Federal Reserve, a “full blown stagflation scenario becomes a more significant risk.”

“This forecast is being produced at a time when more extreme scenarios have become increasingly plausible, even though they do not yet represent our baseline outlook,” states the report by Clement Bohr, senior economist at the forecast.

UCLA’s report notes that the labor market “deteriorated notably” in June while inflation pivoted away from a path of “gradual normalization” onto a rising trajectory.

The quarterly forecast does not take into account the government shutdown that began Wednesday that could results in thousands of layoffs, but predicts third-quarter GDP growth will come in at just 1% on a seasonably adjusted basis, and it will weaken further as the full cost of the tariffs takes hold.

It expects growth to recover in the middle of next year and reach 2% by the fourth quarter, remaining there throughout 2027.

Driving the stagflation prediction is an effective tariff rate of about 11%, with the risk of future levies on pharmaceuticals and the potential lack of a resolution of the China trade dispute. The report notes the political pressure on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the decision by the bank to cut the federal funds rate by a quarter point in September. UCLA predicts a similar rate cut this month.

Trump’s “big beautiful” budget reconciliation bill passed in July, which included $703 billion in temporary tax cuts over the next four years starting in 2026, also will provide substantial stimulus. The Consumer Price Index is expected to peak at 3.6% in the first quarter of next year before easing.

However, the economy will be held back by a tightening labor supply caused by retiring baby boomers and restrictive immigration policies. The unemployment rate has crept up to 4.3% and is expected to peak at 4.6% early next year.

Also Wednesday, closely watched ADP Research released figures showed private-sector payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September with job growth slowing across many industries.

The billions of dollars being invested in artificial intelligence by large technology firms has helped prop up the economy, the forecast noted, which should result in productivity gains — but the capital expenditures should tail off as a “trough of disillusionment” sets in when revenue gains don’t meet expectations.

The report also expects consumer consumption to weaken following a surge in electric-vehicle purchases in the third quarter due to the expiration of federal tax credits last month.

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said if the government shutdown lasts a week or two it won’t have a “meaningful economic impact.” However, if it lasts for a month or more and is accompanied by mass federal layoffs, it would have a profound effect on the economy, Zandi said.

“It would wreak havoc on the financial markets as global markets and investors begin to wonder if we can govern ourselves,” he said. “That would mean higher interest rates and lower stock prices.”

The United States government is set to shut down unless Congress passes an appropriations bill to fund its operations.

Without this legislation, federal agencies will be forced to suspend nonessential activities starting on Wednesday at 12:01am in Washington, DC (04:01 GMT).

Although Republicans control the House of Representatives, Senate and White House, they cannot pass the bill on their own. While Republicans have 53 of the 100 seats in the Senate, 60 votes are needed to advance the bill to a vote.

Republicans have proposed a short-term spending plan, but Democrats have been trying to use the approaching shutdown as leverage. They are pushing to reverse Medicaid cuts included in tax legislation passed in July and extend tax credits for healthcare purchased through government exchanges.

With neither side willing to compromise, a shutdown could have ripple effects across the US economy.

Layoffs and impact on consumer sentiment

The federal government is the nation’s largest employer. In a memo last week, federal agencies were told to prepare layoff notices for programmes that would run out of funds by the deadline and for those not considered a priority by the administration. The memo itself did not explicitly make it clear what those priorities are.

The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for clarification.

The cuts would be through what is called Reduction In Force, or RIF. But it is unclear whether the cuts, even if the president were to push them through, would last because Trump doesn’t have the power to carry them out, said Daniel Hornung, policy fellow at the Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research.

“There’s no legal authority that you [the White House] get from shutting down to do RIFs,” Hornung  told Al Jazeera.

RIFs require 30- to 60-days notice if an agency looks to make cuts, so Hornung expected that any cuts made now would be challenged in court.

But even if the job cuts are blocked, it is not clear when that would happen. As a result, those out of work may put off purchases, especially for big-ticket items, according to Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at Tufts University in Massachusetts.

“Consumers will start spending less because they’re concerned about what the future looks like,” Klein told Al Jazeera.

“It might be decided [by the court] that it’s not lawful, but that could be a long time. Even if it all gets resolved, those out of a job probably aren’t going to be spending like they otherwise would.”

The memo did not provide a specific number of jobs that could be cut. It comes as more than 150,000 workers are also expected to leave the federal workforce after accepting buyouts this year. Those reductions – as part of the deferred exit programme, which kept workers on payrolls until the end of September – are the largest federal worker job cuts in almost 80 years.

In addition to the permanent layoffs, government workers face furloughs as long as the government is shut down. Workers considered not essential to government operations would stop working until Congress passes budget bills or a stopgap measure.

Delayed jobs report

On Tuesday, the Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS, released by the Department of Labor showed that hiring declined by 114,000 jobs to 5.1 million in August while job openings increased slightly by 19,000 to 7.2 million. If the government shuts down, the Labor Department would delay the release of key economic reports that gauge the health of the US economy.

On Thursday, it is scheduled to publish weekly jobless claims and on Friday the monthly jobs report, detailing how many jobs were created, in which sectors and the unemployment rate. Normally, the department releases that report on the first Friday of each month unless a holiday intervenes.

The broader labour market has already shown signs of cooling in recent months. In August, the US economy, the largest in the world, added only 22,000 jobs.

Softening labour conditions were one reason the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September. A delay in new data could leave the central bank with less information to consider as it weighs whether to cut rates again. Still, a short delay is unlikely to have a major effect because the Fed’s next two-day policy meeting is not until October 28-29.

Hornung believes this shutdown is coming during a fairly unique economic situation that the central bank will need to watch.

“The main risk is that we’re in a precarious spot in the economy anyway. Unlike the prior shutdowns like the prolonged 2018 shutdown, the economy was performing well, the prolonged 2013 shutdown, the economy, was in the midst of a slow but long, gradual recovery,” Hornung said.

“Now the labour market has really weakened. It appears in recent months the risk of inflation remains because of the tariffs. And so, it’s kind of this question of how much can the economy withstand.”

Market impact

Historically, shutdowns have had limited impact on financial markets because investors typically recognise that a shutdown is short-lived.

“Typically in shutdown scenarios, there’s not much impact on either equity markets or in bond markets, mostly because investors tend to look through shutdowns and assess that any temporary slowdown associated with the shutdown will be reversed when the government opens back up,”  Hornung added.

This time, the dynamics are different as the government is planning to slash jobs vs just putting employees on furlough, and this is set against Trump’s broader economic agenda focused on tariffs, which have already pressured businesses.

Markets were relatively flat before the looming shutdown. As of 3:30pm in New York (19:30 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.08 percent, the Nasdaq was up 0.06 percent and the S&P 500 was up 0.2 percent.

BREAKINGBREAKING,

The central bank’s cut comes amid a cooling labour market, which has stalled economic growth.

The United States Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, so they will now be between 4.00 percent and 4.25 percent, as a slowing labour market stalls economic growth.

The Fed, the US central bank, announced its decision on Wednesday afternoon.

Economists had widely expected a 25 basis point cut, with CME FedWatch — a group that tracks probability of monetary policy decisions — putting the odds at 96 percent. One basis point is one-hundredth of one percentage point.

Before Wednesday, the Fed had last cut rates in December by 25 basis points, the third cut last year, taking its benchmark rate to between 4.25 percent and 4.50 percent, where it had held steady since.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has emphasised that uncertainty in the economy has kept the Fed cautious, arguing that maintaining rates gave policymakers flexibility as conditions shifted.

The cut comes as a response to shifting economic conditions, following a slew of weak jobs reports showing a slowdown in growth in the labour market and a slight uptick in inflationary pressures.

“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated,” the central bank said in a press release.

“Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate and judges that downside risks to employment have risen.”

Investors are also waiting for indications from the central bank on whether it will cut interest rates two or three times for the rest of the year as economic uncertainty weighs on the US labour market and the broader economy while the costs of goods and services increase under tariff-driven pressures.

Political pressure

The latest cut comes at a time of heightened scrutiny and pressure on the Fed, which has long emphasised its independence from political pressure. But for months, US President Donald Trump has publicly attacked the central bank, mocking Powell as “too late Powell” over his cautious approach to cutting rates.

At the same time, the Republican-led White House has sought to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who was appointed by former US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, citing alleged mortgage fraud.

On Monday, a US appeals court blocked Trump from removing her. The administration has said it will challenge the ruling.

“The president lawfully removed Lisa Cook for cause. The administration will appeal this decision and looks forward to ultimate victory on the issue,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said on Tuesday.

That same day, Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors, was sworn in to fill a temporary Fed seat left vacant by Adriana Kugler until January, while the White House searches for a permanent replacement.

Miran pledged to act independently, but his close ties to the Trump administration — and his work as a fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute — have raised doubts. His Senate confirmation fell largely along party lines, 47–48, and Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska was the only Republican to oppose him.

On Monday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called Miran “nothing more than Donald Trump’s mouthpiece at the Fed”.

Markets respond

As of 2pm in New York (18:00 GMT), US markets are trending upwards. The Nasdaq is about even with the market open, the S&P 500 is up 0.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up by 1 percent.